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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Happy Monday morning.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in is a time for Total Basis your free

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pick major League Baseball betting show right here on the

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wager Talk YouTube channel Tokyo. Brandon showing off his new

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Neon sign. It's actually very cool. I gotta do something

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behind me. I've been opting for the like plane backdrop.

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I think I need a Neon sign TV. I might

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get one that matches yours, but we're gonna get right

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into it. This is a busy Monday slate. It looks

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like they gave us a reasonable slate on a Monday,

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coming out of the break. I want to start listen

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when they put together the twenty twenty five Milwaukee Brewers

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season sort of look back highlight reel if you will,

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they're probably gonna credit like this show with sort of

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sparking the Brewers run they sweep the Dot. I gotta

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be honest. I didn't play a single thing in that series,

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Brian Leonard, but I am very, very surprised that they

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were able to come out of the break, continue that

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momentum and sweep the Dodgers again. I just didn't think

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that that was going to be the case. This team

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has now won ten straight games, eleven of twelve. Pretty

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much since that Mets doubleheader Mets series, they've won eleven

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of twelve and they're just on fire.

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Speaker 1: And I want to use.

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Speaker 2: Brewers Mariners as our feature game because I think it

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deserves the spotlight a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 2: Mariners take two or three from the Astros and suddenly

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it's game on in the Al West.

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Speaker 1: Brandon woodroof, George Kirby.

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Speaker 2: If they were both fully healthy, in their full sort

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of selves, that's a pretty nice pitching matchup break there.

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So let's start with you, Brian Leonards, Brewers Mariners, any

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comments on those two teams?

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Speaker 1: And then how are you seeing this matchup tonight?

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Speaker 3: I believe it all on Tokyo Brandon he came earlier

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in the season, said something about the Dodgers' third baseman.

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Almost the Dodgers' third basement gets classes and he's great.

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He said something a couple weeks ago about a Segar

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and say, Singer's terrible. And Segar since then has been

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one of the best players in baseball. And he comes

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out and says the Brewers and well, we all know that.

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So it's nice to him to do that for anybody

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who's a Brewers fan. You could send your cash donations

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to Tokyo Brandon, Who do.

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Speaker 1: You want me to curse next?

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Speaker 3: What was that?

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Speaker 4: Who do you want me to curse next? I'll take donations.

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Speaker 3: I want you to curse me if I get on

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hot streak.

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Speaker 4: Okay, we need to.

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Speaker 3: Start winning some of these parlays. Yeah, Woodroff against Kirby

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two guys I spent a lot of the year injured,

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but are very good as we know before the injuries.

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Kirby's about a one twenty five favorite here. And I

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hope my cat doesn't hear that because I named him

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after Kirby Pucket. He's thinking I'm calling him or something.

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But that wood Dreff's been great. One twenty five to

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seven is what we're getting on the total in this one.

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So far this season. I've been really surprised by Brandon

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Woodriff because he was down in his rehabilitation starts and

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did not look good, was not pitching well. The same

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thing happened to Montos of the match, and I guess

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we need to start looking at that a little bit differently. Obviously,

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when they're down there in the minor leagues, they're working

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on certain things, and we don't we have to ignore

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their their play down in the minor leagues, because I

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believe Kershaw was very similar. So yeah, let's take a

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look at that. But woodrift two point six one, two

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point two to one expected even better than what he

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has done. Zero point six eight whip. Obviously that's not

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going to continue. Last time you pitched was twenty twenty three,

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it was zero point eight two. But six' eight is

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kind of crazy as fastball velost. He's not there any longer.

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He's thirty two years old. It's extensions about middle of

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the road, fifty third percentile, So those are concerns. And

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but right now he's been looking really good, So we'll

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see how long that lasts. Either one of these guys

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could have a blow up start because they are coming

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back to Andrew Kirby's head had a couple when he

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started out. He's got a four point five oh three

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point seven seven expected another situation where he's been should

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be better than what he actually is. He's got a

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one point one five whip eighty nine percentile walk rate

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five point four percent in the last four years. His

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walk rates right now is a career high five point

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four it was three point zero before that two point five,

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four point one. He does not walk people, and that's

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been his key. So we've got two guys here who

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if they are on this line is too high. It's

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the seven right now, but we don't know since his

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sample size is so small. We look at that, we

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look at the history. Milwaukee's offense has been doing really well. Seattle.

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If you take a look at Stitch, Oh, where did

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they go well? Anyway? Since the beginning of last thirty days,

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Seattle leeds baseball in WRC plusant Watch twenty six. So

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I got two pitchers. I like the odd round. We

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got two hitters or two teams. I like the over on.

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It's a pitcher's ballpark. But you have to think Milwaukee

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would have a letdown. You just have to think that.

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I slightly just Seattle and Kurby for this for me.

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Speaker 4: So both of these teams are very well put together

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and doing very well. Both lineups hitting very well, both

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bullpens performing very well. And Woodruff has been great since

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he came back. It's only ten plus innings, but he

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still hasn't walked anyone yet. Kirby never walks anyone either.

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So these pictures are very disciplined pictures. Kirby's been a

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little inconsistent. He can give up four here, four there,

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and then give up zero, zero and then two, so

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don't really know what to expect from him. My first

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inclination would be the under because both bullpens are performing

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well and both starting pictures are red hot, but both

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lineups are red hot too, so it's kind of a

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stalemate for me on this one. I have the Brewers

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performing a little bit better than the Mariners in everything,

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but just barely better. So there's not an overall ranking

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of a huge discrepancy here, so I'll probably leave this

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one alone.

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Speaker 2: I will definitely look for a spot to play the

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Mariners in this series.

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Speaker 1: I thought it might be here. I'm not saying that

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I don't like them.

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Speaker 2: I think if you play this, I feel like the

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Mariners are the better side all things considered.

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Speaker 1: So a couple of things.

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Speaker 2: Brandon Woodroffe, the fact that he's come into his first

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two big league starts of the year and he has

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eighteen strikeouts and ten and a third is is shocking

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to me.

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Speaker 1: And not because Brandon Woodrif's not a great pitcher.

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Speaker 2: He is and He's been a good pitcher for a

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very long time, but this was like, I mean, he

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was onny. It was months worth of rehab for him.

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I mean he was started. He started his rehab pitching

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in minor league games back in early April. So this

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was the type of scenario where he didn't have a spring,

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so it was an extended sort of stint at you know,

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in the minors. And then I think he had a

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setback of some sort where he didn't right Bryan.

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Speaker 3: A couple of times because they thought it was along

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and then they said, is he ever going to get

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a chance to pitch again? So, yeah, it's been a

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long road for him.

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Speaker 2: So right, he went pretty much the entire month of

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June where he was back on the shelf. He makes

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one appearance at the end of June and Triple A

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and then he comes out and he just eviscerates the

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Marlins and the Nationals and back to back starts. This

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is not that the Mariners, I you know, And now

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I got to try to pinch myself a little bit

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and say, like, you know, I've been talking about this

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team for a couple of months.

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Speaker 1: I've now taken positions on them in the AO West.

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Speaker 2: You know, I've got some long term stuff going on

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with the Mariners, and it's starting to come to fruition here.

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They take two of three from the Astros this weekend,

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something they absolutely had to have. So I'm very high

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on this Mariners team, and so I need to make

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sure that I'm not just like betting them or I'm

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inclined to bet them because I have like some longer

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term stuff that that sort of you know, would be

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favorable if they win. But like again, I just come

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back to, like, I really think this team's the best

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team in the American League West.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win that division.

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Speaker 2: Have been saying it since there were six or seven

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games back, and now I truly believe that going to

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be the case. The key here and the thing, the

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reason I think you gotta bet the Mariners are past

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this game. The Brewers used a lot of bullpen over

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the weekend. Three like essentially one run wins over the Dodgers.

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Speaker 1: I think one of them was two to nothing.

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Speaker 2: And all of them had high leverage arms in those outings.

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Brandon Wood Drift, you know, four innings in his first start,

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six innings in his last one. If if the Mariners

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are putting together some good at bats and he's out

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after five innings or so, you're gonna either have some

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very tired leverage arms, or you're gonna have some maybe

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guys that the Brewers don't necessarily want in a leverage spot.

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I don't think you can do that against the Mariners.

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I think they're just playing too good right now. They

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they managed to win the close games against the Astros

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this weekend, a little bit of a you know, kind

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of kind of rolled out of bed and tried to

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play yesterday. I feel like ended up getting blown out.

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Speaker 1: So I like the Mariners here.

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Speaker 2: Not sure if it'll make my card, but I definitely

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wanted to give that game the sort of spotlight as

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the feature aim today because that's gonna be a great

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matchup two teams that are playing as good as anyone

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right now. As Brian Leonard said, Mariners WRC plus they're

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leading since when Brian last days, last thirty days, last

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thirty days. Yeah, that is a you know, you want

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to talk about current form and liking a team current

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form WRC plus over the last thirty days is probably

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the best sort of you know, metric to be able

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to measure like current offensive form, and so the Mariners

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have been that.

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Speaker 1: So I like the Mariners. There.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the chat. We're getting in the in

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the groove for the week here back doing you know,

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I hate having the week off of shows. Have to do,

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uh have to like get back into the mix here,

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and I should have been I should have been starring

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some chat questions. But I'm gonna grab this one. Let's

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go to Steve Duke. He says, Miami favored because of Perez.

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I don't know what we're the last half of his

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message went, but that's okay. That's all we need to

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get going on this one, Brian Leonard, Miami is favored.

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It is because of Perez, but it also might because

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Randy Vasquez is probably not a big league pitcher, even

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though he continues to moonlight as one. If you will, guys,

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frustrated the hell out of me this year, So help

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me figure this one out, Padres Marlins Perez Vasquez.

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Speaker 3: I promised not to be as long winded on this one.

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I literally just rolled out of betting to see the

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red in my eyes right now. Six A. I'm out

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here in Vegas. I don't know how Tokyo, Brandon does

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his late night stuff. But yeah, that's exactly why they're favored.

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I mean he Perez has been terrific as of light.

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He's going up against one of the worst. I hate

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say anybody, you know, put anybody down. I'm not Brandon,

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but but he's one of the lesser pitchers of Major

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League Baseball. Perez about a one thirty favorite right now,

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total eight and a half. I tried to play against

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San Diego one of the games over the weekend, I believe,

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and didn't have a lot of success in that regard.

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But they're going up against this Miami team right now,

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and you know, we've liked this Miami offense all year long.

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I'm gonna start and come around Basquez. Uh yeah, he's

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got three point eight o e RA. This this, this

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is why we talk about three point eight.

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Speaker 2: O e RA.

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Speaker 3: That's pretty good. But he's expected the IRA is two

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full runs higher. Five point eight zero last year is expected.

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It was five point nine four the year prior, five

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point three seven. He's gotten no red on his debt

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cast page a Baseball Savannah on the MLB website. Uh so,

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he's not very good at anything. He's WF rate the

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first percent hele strike out right the first percentile. Yeah,

241
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I'm not looking to back Randy Vasquez. Now, Uri Perez

242
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on the season, he's three point one eight e RA

243
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:58,480
A two point three eight expected even better, he's been

244
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,240
terrific zero point nine WHIP coming back from injury. The

245
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,960
one problem is his ground ball rates only in the

246
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eighth percentile, so he does hit fly balls. And I've

247
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gotten beaten the last week or so on teams that

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are hitting fly balls because they hit home runs and

249
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they'll end up with four hits and they're all Solio

250
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home runs and I lose the game four to three.

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It's just one of those situations. But that's baseball. That's

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what happens. But if you take it look at Perez

253
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ninety eighth percentile expected batting average, ninety six percentile expected DRA,

254
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ninety fifth percentile fastball velocity, clear advantage for Miami in

255
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that regard. Now, when we take a look at the

256
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two teams, San Diego and Miami on the worst plus

257
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plus the last thirty days, San Diego has been nineteenth.

258
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They're at ninety six, while Miami is eleventh and one hundred

259
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and four. So You've got by far the better pitcher.

260
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You've got the better offense, at least right now, at

261
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least the last month. The only problem is San Diego's

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00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,960
bullpen is the best at least coming out of the season.

263
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And I feel the best are one of the best

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in baseball and they're French. They haven't used anybody since Friday,

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so that should be an advantage for San Diego. So

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if I'm looking to play this, I would play Miami

267
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in the first five. Let's see what kind of line

268
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we get there. Yeah, minus one fifty minus one fifty

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five's out there. That would be the way that I

270
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would look at this. So far, I haven't made any decisions,

271
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but Miami first half minus one fifty is not a bad.

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Speaker 4: One, so my rankings. By the way, guys, please go

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back to the replay and click the like and leave

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us a comment. It shows way to talk to you

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like our show, and we would really appreciate that. I

276
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have a five percent play out today. I'm sure Adam

277
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and Brian are going to put something out as well.

278
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And you can download all of my at your projections

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at my page at wagertalk dot com, So go do

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that for free. So Randy Vasquez some people in the

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comments saying he's not so bad, he is so bad.

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He's actually he's actually been very lucky this season not

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to be tagged even worse than he has been. I

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have his look ahead or his expected numbers. He's ranked

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one of the worst pictures in MLB as a regular starter.

286
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He's not sends a Tella level quite yet, but he's

287
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getting there pretty quickly. And I have the bullpens ranked

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00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,960
fairly even in current form. I agree with Brian that

289
00:15:40,039 --> 00:15:43,279
San Diego's is better talent wise current form, though Miami's

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00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,519
bullpens performing quite well and their lineup is performing quite

291
00:15:46,559 --> 00:15:49,360
well too. This is one of those where you have

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00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,679
to cover the logo and cover the team names and

293
00:15:52,879 --> 00:15:56,399
just look at the numbers and think which team is better.

294
00:15:56,639 --> 00:15:59,320
One thing about Randy Vasquez, he's walking more guys than

295
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:04,279
he's striking out. That's that's an alarming red flag. So

296
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I if you don't trust Miami, take their team total

297
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,679
over maybe, or but San Diego's bullpen's really good, maybe

298
00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:14,759
take their first five team total over. Or take them

299
00:16:14,799 --> 00:16:17,360
to win the game. You know, get some plus money

300
00:16:17,799 --> 00:16:21,679
and take them to win the game. Unfortunately they're favored,

301
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,759
so you can't get plus money for him. Maybe take

302
00:16:24,759 --> 00:16:26,519
their team total in the first five that might be

303
00:16:26,559 --> 00:16:27,080
the way I'd go.

304
00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:30,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Marlins here.

305
00:16:30,559 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna you guys have said all that needs

306
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,200
to be said about Basquez. It's actually been it's actually

307
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:42,159
been incredible to watch that it's gone on this long,

308
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:47,240
Like like the expected numbers that that Brian pointed out

309
00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,000
being two runs off, I mean that that's been the

310
00:16:50,039 --> 00:16:52,600
craziest thing with Dascus is usually by this point in

311
00:16:52,639 --> 00:16:55,840
the year that sorted itself out, and it hasn't.

312
00:16:55,879 --> 00:16:59,399
Speaker 1: So it's like, you know, it's it's a it's almost like.

313
00:16:59,399 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 2: Hard to wrap your head around how he hasn't been

314
00:17:02,279 --> 00:17:05,079
really blown up yet because that that market correction should

315
00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:06,160
have happened a long time ago.

316
00:17:07,039 --> 00:17:08,680
Speaker 1: The fact that he made it through the whole first

317
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:10,920
half is hard to fathom.

318
00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:15,599
Speaker 2: But in this matchup, not only are you getting Vasquez like, yeah,

319
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,480
there's probably a blow up on the horizon. Now, if

320
00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:21,279
you're like countering that, you can say, well, Trigg, you've

321
00:17:21,279 --> 00:17:23,640
been coming on the show for two months and saying

322
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,480
he's ready, he's due to get blown up. He still

323
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:29,000
hasn't r and er four and yeah, maybe he houdini's

324
00:17:29,039 --> 00:17:31,160
his way out of five innings and gives up one

325
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,039
or two runs again. But you have Perez on the

326
00:17:34,039 --> 00:17:38,400
Miami side now, and he is he is pretty much

327
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:40,559
back at full strength as far as you know, I

328
00:17:40,599 --> 00:17:43,640
can tell U. I talked about Pez during his rehab,

329
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,400
uh knowing a couple of people close to that organization,

330
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,680
and and they were thrilled with the you know, time effort,

331
00:17:51,839 --> 00:17:54,880
just just everything about his rehab was very positive. And

332
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,079
so as soon as he sort of like got his

333
00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,000
command back, which came I think maybe three or four

334
00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:02,240
war starts in there was there was the one start

335
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,519
where he was just like lights out and you're like, okay,

336
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,920
like maybe he's back now. I think based on the

337
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,920
full body of work, you can confidently say that Uri

338
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:13,119
Perez is back.

339
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 1: It doesn't look like the injury is affecting him.

340
00:18:15,559 --> 00:18:18,279
Speaker 2: And you look at the you know, the underlying metrics,

341
00:18:18,279 --> 00:18:22,400
they're all really really good. Brian references Baseball sabat in

342
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,599
stat cast a lot of red on that page.

343
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,519
Speaker 1: You know, there's really not much he's not doing well

344
00:18:28,559 --> 00:18:29,200
at this point.

345
00:18:29,279 --> 00:18:31,799
Speaker 2: So I do like the Marlins quite a bit here

346
00:18:32,079 --> 00:18:34,880
I thought the price was I feel like the books

347
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:38,920
maybe have you know, they're they're they're they're beating you

348
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,960
to this spot a little bit with this price at

349
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,920
minus one thirty, But I don't even that initially deterred

350
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,279
me here, feeling like, Okay, I gotta have to lay

351
00:18:47,279 --> 00:18:50,119
a dollar thirty to back the Marlins against a Padres

352
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,200
team that's clearly a better team. But I think I'm

353
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:56,480
gonna end up playing this today, So I Marlins. I

354
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,039
don't know if I'll throw it in the parlay here.

355
00:18:58,079 --> 00:19:00,440
Let's see how the show is gonna go. But this

356
00:19:00,519 --> 00:19:02,680
is this may be a client play for me. I'm

357
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,920
not gonna say that one way or the other, but

358
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,480
definitely one of the ways I am looking on today's slate.

359
00:19:08,519 --> 00:19:10,759
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I just want to point out

360
00:19:11,079 --> 00:19:15,440
talk about the San Diego bullpen the Miami bullpen. Enriquez

361
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,759
and Bender both the pitched to it the last three days,

362
00:19:17,799 --> 00:19:21,400
although they did have yesterday off, so I'd like the

363
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,000
first half played better than the full game.

364
00:19:24,559 --> 00:19:28,799
Speaker 2: All right, Let's uh, let's continue on. Someone said Brewers

365
00:19:28,839 --> 00:19:31,599
didn't use any leverage pictures yesterday. That was going back

366
00:19:31,599 --> 00:19:33,559
to the first game we talked about. I think what

367
00:19:33,599 --> 00:19:36,440
I was more or less pointing to was their their

368
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:40,920
collective bullpen usage over the past three days has been

369
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,960
almost everyone is pitched. I'm not saying they won't pitch

370
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,160
again tonight for that game, but when you use as

371
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,279
much pen as they've used the last three days, like,

372
00:19:50,319 --> 00:19:52,680
I think there's still some carry over there, So I

373
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,079
want to clarify that. In regards to the first game

374
00:19:55,079 --> 00:19:58,319
we talked about Brewers Mariners, where if you're if you

375
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,559
are looking for that game, we opened the show with

376
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:02,680
that game, go ahead, Brian.

377
00:20:04,319 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 3: The four high leverage guys, Mirrors, Konig, Eibe, and McGill

378
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,079
have all pitched to the last three days.

379
00:20:10,519 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 1: The last it's major.

380
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 3: I mean they they also had a Anderson and Hall

381
00:20:15,039 --> 00:20:18,759
pitched double digits yesterday. But yeah, when you when you've

382
00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:22,400
got your best relievers, Ashby's going to be available. He

383
00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:26,359
maybe end up being the closer up there in that situation,

384
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,519
and that's something they've liked in the past. Other other

385
00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:32,079
than that rookie that was up earlier this year, Ashleby

386
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,480
is a guy that's got terrific stuff. He could be

387
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,480
a closer, So yeah, that's something to keep in mind

388
00:20:37,519 --> 00:20:38,279
at the end of that game.

389
00:20:39,839 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's head to a different game. Got to

390
00:20:42,759 --> 00:20:46,039
talk about this one. It's the Tigers, everyone's favorite team,

391
00:20:46,559 --> 00:20:47,680
at least in this chat.

392
00:20:48,519 --> 00:20:51,079
Speaker 1: A little bit, a little bit sluggish out of a break.

393
00:20:50,799 --> 00:20:54,640
Speaker 2: For the Tigers and into the break, finally finally got

394
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,640
off the mat last night with a two to one

395
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,839
win on Sunday Night Baseball, and and their reward for

396
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:03,720
them is a quick turnaround hitting the road to take

397
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,920
on Paul Skien. So that's a tough scheduling spot there

398
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,519
for the Tigers. Sunday Night Baseball. Had to grind out

399
00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:13,079
a two to one win on the road, that wasn't easy,

400
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,920
and now they have to turn around and face arguably

401
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,920
the best pitcher in baseball, certainly one of them, Brian Leonard.

402
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:23,240
So we've got Tigers Sunday Night Baseball on the road,

403
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,279
Monday game on the road up against the Cy young

404
00:21:26,319 --> 00:21:28,960
candidate and skiings Jack Flaherty on the mound for the Tigers.

405
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 1: How do you see this one?

406
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,599
Speaker 3: Just a general something generally I want to point out

407
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,400
is you talked about the Tigers and their slump as

408
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:43,319
of lade. They had a huge lead in that division, earlier.

409
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,640
It's still up by eleven over the Guardians, eleven and

410
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,480
a half, twelve with the Royals and the Twins. But

411
00:21:50,039 --> 00:21:53,039
when you and then we talked about this earlier with

412
00:21:53,079 --> 00:21:56,559
the Dodgers, when you have a big lead, specially team

413
00:21:56,599 --> 00:22:00,599
like the Tigers who are not recently, not known to

414
00:22:00,759 --> 00:22:02,839
be dominating in that division, and spend the Guardians and

415
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,880
the Twins and the Royals for as long as I

416
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:09,759
can remember, Uh, they weren't used to being that good.

417
00:22:09,839 --> 00:22:12,880
And you start and when you've come out and nobody

418
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,960
congratulating you, you know, everybody we were even talking about

419
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,279
the Tigers on this show and some others, is this

420
00:22:18,319 --> 00:22:20,079
the best team in baseball? And a whole bit well,

421
00:22:20,519 --> 00:22:22,240
you're going to lose a little bit of.

422
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 1: Want.

423
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,559
Speaker 3: You're very you're not as hungry as you were before.

424
00:22:28,599 --> 00:22:30,119
And that's what's running into the Tigers.

425
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:30,319
Speaker 1: Now.

426
00:22:30,559 --> 00:22:32,319
Speaker 3: We saw that with the Yankees a little bit earlier.

427
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,200
I had a big lead. It's going back to Paris

428
00:22:35,319 --> 00:22:38,319
in the East and the nationally all year long. To

429
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,000
just keep that in mind, you know, the Dodgers were

430
00:22:40,039 --> 00:22:42,680
in that similar situation there like a week ago. They're

431
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,720
up nine games. Now they're only up three point five.

432
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,920
It changes and keep that in mind. But as for

433
00:22:49,519 --> 00:22:55,960
this game, excuse me, we're taking a look at Flaherty,

434
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,000
who is on the road against Skens but a one

435
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:04,240
twenty three Pittsburgh and seven on the total. I was

436
00:23:04,279 --> 00:23:07,000
looking at this overnight and I thought the line was

437
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:12,359
very cheap on schemes. I don't I give it cursory

438
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,319
looks at night and if there's something.

439
00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:23,559
Speaker 1: That TV used to do, we lose Brian there.

440
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:25,559
Speaker 4: It looks like he froze.

441
00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 1: Okay, I'll give I'll we'll ahead. Yeah.

442
00:23:31,759 --> 00:23:35,279
Speaker 4: This is why I make this downloadable PDF file and

443
00:23:35,319 --> 00:23:37,279
you guys can all download it for free. But what

444
00:23:37,319 --> 00:23:40,599
I've done is I've taken all the starting pictures and

445
00:23:40,759 --> 00:23:44,319
I project their hits allowed, k's allowed, how many outs

446
00:23:44,319 --> 00:23:47,400
they'll go, et cetera. And I also have their ops

447
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,359
and e ra a against versus the team they're facing today.

448
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,119
So you can download all that for free, and I

449
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:58,640
use this for my capping. So looking at that, Skeens Skeens.

450
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,960
Skeens has great numbers against the Tigers. He's only faced

451
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,960
them a couple times, limited numbers, but one twenty five

452
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,680
batting average against in a three seventy five OPS against

453
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,559
is amazing. Flarity has been lit up a little bit

454
00:24:12,599 --> 00:24:15,119
by these Pirates batters a three zero four batting average

455
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,319
against in a nine to fifty seven OPS and I've

456
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:21,359
said in previous videos that seven point fifty is kind

457
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,880
of my Mendoza Liigne for ops. So he's way over that.

458
00:24:25,559 --> 00:24:31,079
And then we have Clarity on the road. Let's see

459
00:24:31,079 --> 00:24:34,400
how Flarity does on the road. Yeah, I mean he's

460
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,160
got a six plus RA on the road, so I

461
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:41,039
can't can't back Detroit. So so my numbers are not

462
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,000
you know, everything. It's not the definition of everything here,

463
00:24:45,079 --> 00:24:48,960
but it's enough to make me say I'm not betting

464
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,680
the Tigers for sure. Now whether I bet the Pirates

465
00:24:51,759 --> 00:24:54,839
or not is a different story. I looked to Detroit's

466
00:24:55,039 --> 00:24:58,279
team total first five under one and a half seems

467
00:24:58,319 --> 00:25:04,839
a little tantalizing, but unfortunately Skeens has allowed two runs here,

468
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,279
two runs there. In his last start he allowed four runs,

469
00:25:07,319 --> 00:25:10,319
So one and a half little little dicey for me

470
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,519
might might play on Pittsburgh or some kind of Detroit

471
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,519
team total under perhaps, but I haven't got there yet.

472
00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:18,839
Speaker 1: Yeah.

473
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 2: Interesting, So Sean sewn Michael says Skeens pitch count.

474
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: I there's some.

475
00:25:24,319 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 2: Merit I think to that just in general right now, Like,

476
00:25:27,759 --> 00:25:29,759
and he actually elaborated here. I want to pull this

477
00:25:29,839 --> 00:25:32,440
up because I think this is important.

478
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he probably go ahead. No, I was gonna say,

479
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:36,720
he's probably not.

480
00:25:36,759 --> 00:25:39,039
Speaker 4: Sorry, I didn't want to cut you off. Yeah, he's

481
00:25:39,039 --> 00:25:41,759
been under eighty in his last two starts and eighty

482
00:25:41,759 --> 00:25:45,559
eight before that, so he's generally seventy seventy eight or so.

483
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's gonna be the case for the rest

484
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:48,880
of the season.

485
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,799
Speaker 2: The Pirates are thirty nine and sixty one entering play today.

486
00:25:52,559 --> 00:25:56,559
They have to start, you know, kind of you know,

487
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,519
it's just you know, if Skeens is feeling great one

488
00:26:00,599 --> 00:26:03,640
day and he's got six scoreless going, are they maybe

489
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,279
gonna give him a little bit more leash and let

490
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,960
him throw a hundred? Yeah, probably, But like you gotta start.

491
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,759
You know, Listen, the Pirates are gonna protect that investment.

492
00:26:12,839 --> 00:26:17,079
They don't like spending money. They're they're more concerned with,

493
00:26:17,799 --> 00:26:20,720
you know, profit margins than winning baseball games, which is

494
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,319
why Pirates fans are so upset.

495
00:26:22,599 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, like you have to like look at that.

496
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 2: Yes, you're getting Schemes as the starter here, But if

497
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,440
you're only gonna get him for eighty five ninety pitches,

498
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,359
should you be laying minus one twenty five? Like I

499
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,359
actually put this game next to the Marlins game because

500
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,240
I think it's like a similar dichotomy where you have

501
00:26:40,799 --> 00:26:44,799
the clear better team on the road Padres and Tigers,

502
00:26:45,279 --> 00:26:48,160
the clear better pitcher is on the quote unquote lesser

503
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,839
team Marlins Pirates, and you're you're being asked to lay

504
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:57,599
a price with a lesser team. And for me, the

505
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,920
Marlins was was the much more favorable of the two

506
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,079
spots because I actually happened to think the Marlins are

507
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,599
pretty good and they're starting to win games. Now they're

508
00:27:07,599 --> 00:27:10,119
six games under five hundred Tokyo Brandon, who would have

509
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,119
had that a few months ago? Right, Like, the Marlins

510
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,839
have played their way back into serious respectability, and I

511
00:27:16,839 --> 00:27:19,319
think they could actually have success against the team like

512
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,160
the Padres, Whereas like thinking that the Pirates should have

513
00:27:23,279 --> 00:27:25,519
success against a team like Detroit.

514
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, could they get one in this series?

515
00:27:28,079 --> 00:27:31,319
Speaker 2: Maybe, But also you just woke up Detroit last night,

516
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,519
right like the Sleeping Beast if you will, that went

517
00:27:35,559 --> 00:27:38,200
into the All Star break three straight losses, came out

518
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,759
of the All Star break like totally asleep, couldn't score a.

519
00:27:42,799 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 1: Run, now woke up last night.

520
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 2: I also think the books are pricing it in, where

521
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,400
like they know, you know that the Tigers played on

522
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,240
Sunday night baseball, so all that's priced in. So even

523
00:27:53,279 --> 00:27:57,400
though I Jerry Davis says the spot here for the Pirates, yeah,

524
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,480
I think it's a decent spot, but this is the

525
00:28:00,519 --> 00:28:04,920
instance where I really feel like they're they're over pricing

526
00:28:05,599 --> 00:28:07,920
the fact that Skeens is on the mound and the

527
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,359
fact that like, okay, the Tigers played on Sunday night baseball.

528
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,680
I could have got down with the pirateier like minus

529
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,920
one oh five, but man, now that you're starting to

530
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,720
get to minus one twenty five, minus one thirty, that's

531
00:28:18,759 --> 00:28:20,799
where I'm just like, I don't know if I can

532
00:28:20,839 --> 00:28:21,440
get down with that.

533
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 1: Go ahead, and not.

534
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:25,839
Speaker 4: To cut you off, but I'm doing the Brian raise

535
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:30,039
your finger thing. But last start against the Tigers, Skens

536
00:28:30,039 --> 00:28:32,599
gave up only three hits and six innings. They were

537
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,200
unlucky hits because people were on base, but three hits

538
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,519
and six innings, man, that's that's pretty dumb. That's pretty

539
00:28:38,559 --> 00:28:39,279
much domination.

540
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 2: I remember thing, yeah, if I remember correctly that that

541
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,920
Skeen's last start against the Tigers was like part of

542
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,839
a double header. I mean, I'm pretty sure he started

543
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,920
game two, so that I don't know if that really

544
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,240
matters per se, but like you know, you had the Tigers,

545
00:28:57,319 --> 00:28:59,400
who I believe one game one of the double header,

546
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,759
and then had Schimes in the second game, So anyway,

547
00:29:02,799 --> 00:29:03,240
go ahead.

548
00:29:03,279 --> 00:29:06,839
Speaker 4: Sorry, he actually has better numbers on the road than

549
00:29:06,839 --> 00:29:08,640
he does at home, but I don't really I mean,

550
00:29:08,759 --> 00:29:11,200
it's the difference between an era of one and the

551
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:15,200
era of two, so it's not really like we're parsing things,

552
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,240
and you know, it's the sample size is not that huge.

553
00:29:18,319 --> 00:29:21,359
So it's true that he that he will be on

554
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,839
a limited pitch count. And one thing to keep in

555
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,880
mind if you're gonna think about betting and under in

556
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,559
this game is both bullpens are performing horribly right now.

557
00:29:29,559 --> 00:29:31,759
I have him both twenty five or worse out of

558
00:29:31,839 --> 00:29:35,759
thirty teams in current form. So something to keep in mind.

559
00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:39,359
Speaker 2: City by city, by the bass can't bet on favorite

560
00:29:39,359 --> 00:29:42,920
with a weak lineup. That that's probably something that belonged

561
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,079
in this handicap. You know, we talk about WRC plus

562
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,640
being a good indicator of how a team is performing offensively,

563
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,759
with the Mariners have had the highest WRC plus over

564
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:56,440
the last thirty days. The Pirates I believe have the

565
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,880
lowest WRC plus of any team in the league by

566
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,880
like a wide margin this year. This is a horrific

567
00:30:02,279 --> 00:30:06,279
lineup one through nine. And they made they made like

568
00:30:06,359 --> 00:30:10,359
a trade the other day with the Royals. I believe

569
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,880
it was like, I forget, I think maybe Fraser. They

570
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,559
sent someone to the Royals to get Vaney. Yeah, so

571
00:30:16,599 --> 00:30:19,440
they send Adam Frasier, who's actually like a guy that

572
00:30:19,559 --> 00:30:23,400
probably is is impacts that team positive positively when he's

573
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,480
on the field, he's scrappy guy, just slaps the ball

574
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:26,200
all over the place.

575
00:30:26,759 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 1: They traded him for Camdevany.

576
00:30:28,319 --> 00:30:31,119
Speaker 2: Now that, in my opinion, is a pretty good trade

577
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:35,079
for the Pirates because Cam Devaney's got some upside as

578
00:30:35,119 --> 00:30:38,039
a few you know going forward. The problem is they

579
00:30:38,079 --> 00:30:40,680
put Cam Devaney at Triple A and called up some

580
00:30:41,079 --> 00:30:43,039
like someone that's been a not a good player at

581
00:30:43,039 --> 00:30:45,039
Triple A. So I'm not really quite sure what the

582
00:30:45,039 --> 00:30:47,920
mindset there was by the Pirates, but they they ultimately

583
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,000
made their team worse in the short term. They should

584
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:52,839
have just called they should have just put Devaney on

585
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:54,960
the big league team. Why they sent him to Triple

586
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,880
A is beyond me, but they actually made their lineup

587
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:58,799
worse in the short term.

588
00:30:58,839 --> 00:31:00,319
Speaker 1: So yeah, I wouldn't have anything.

589
00:31:00,559 --> 00:31:01,559
Speaker 4: They're not trying to win.

590
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 2: I won't have anything in that one. But again, hard

591
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,839
to hard to go against. It is hard to go

592
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,279
against Skens. There maybe maybe one that there's just not

593
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,000
you know, not tough one to get involved with.

594
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: Brian that he's trying to get back in. So as

595
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:23,559
soon as he's back in, we'll have him here, guys, well.

596
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: We will, we will forge ahead. Steve, Steve Duke. This

597
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,279
is here, it is, this is this is what we're

598
00:31:28,279 --> 00:31:28,799
talking about.

599
00:31:28,799 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: Now.

600
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,599
Speaker 2: The Pirates go on a prolonged winning streak, uh, you know,

601
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,880
thanks to our word magic. Yeah, I mean they could

602
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,200
not have looked worse against the White Sox all weekend.

603
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 1: They were horrific in that uh, in that series.

604
00:31:40,519 --> 00:31:44,279
Speaker 2: So it only makes sense that that would that that

605
00:31:44,319 --> 00:31:48,160
would be the case in BBL says, you know, hope

606
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:49,559
the Tiger's money line increases.

607
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 1: That's I think another good talking point.

608
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 2: For this, uh match up here, Tokyo Brandon, At what

609
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,720
point if they give I mean, if they're gonna give

610
00:31:57,759 --> 00:32:01,160
you like plus one fifteen plus one twenty on the times, like,

611
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,359
don't you just have to start thinking about taking that

612
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,480
based on the fact that, like they're such a superior team,

613
00:32:06,839 --> 00:32:08,880
Like that's you know, a talking point as well.

614
00:32:09,799 --> 00:32:12,759
Speaker 4: They're a superior team. But we've discussed this in previous

615
00:32:12,759 --> 00:32:15,119
shows that they're kind of one of those small ball

616
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,160
teams that's coached really well and they produce runs. They

617
00:32:18,319 --> 00:32:21,319
like eke out runs and two to nothing wins. That's

618
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,880
the kind of team they are. So Yeah, as someone

619
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,240
in the chat said, Tigers plus one and a half,

620
00:32:26,279 --> 00:32:28,319
I wouldn't argue with that because this is probably gonna

621
00:32:28,319 --> 00:32:30,559
be like a one to nothing Like Skiings games are

622
00:32:30,599 --> 00:32:32,720
always like one to nothing or two to one, and

623
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,480
they never produce runs for him. I don't know if

624
00:32:35,519 --> 00:32:37,440
that's a thing, to be honest, I don't know if

625
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,519
batters are just like, oh, we got skins on them out,

626
00:32:39,599 --> 00:32:41,759
we don't have to hit today, and they don't hit.

627
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,920
I don't think that's the case, but it's more than

628
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,599
a coincidence that they never never score when he's pitching.

629
00:32:50,119 --> 00:32:55,559
Speaker 1: All right, Kevin Piqutt asked for I asked for Guardians Orioles.

630
00:32:55,599 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: But I want to see if we can get Brian

631
00:32:57,319 --> 00:32:59,839
back on before we talk Guardians. That is, we'd be

632
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,640
doing all of ourselves a disservice if we talk Guardians

633
00:33:03,079 --> 00:33:04,359
without Brian Leonards.

634
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, well we'll do this one first.

635
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:13,359
Speaker 4: Let's uh, oh he lost his WiFi so he's not

636
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:13,960
coming back.

637
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's uh, you know, for whatever, but he gave us.

638
00:33:19,599 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 2: I think Vegas has like I don't know if it's

639
00:33:23,039 --> 00:33:26,039
the main provider there, but I know people out in

640
00:33:26,119 --> 00:33:28,680
Las Vegas like have Internet issues.

641
00:33:28,319 --> 00:33:32,119
Speaker 1: Like more than more than most like we have.

642
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 2: So we have like a good amount of our company

643
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,359
that lives out there, and and they're always having internet

644
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,200
issues in Vegas. So I don't know what that's about.

645
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:46,640
But as well, so Spectral is okay. Here in central

646
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,200
New York, I never really have internet issues. So shout

647
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,440
out to Spectrum Cable right there, because they keep me

648
00:33:52,519 --> 00:33:54,519
going good here in Central New York.

649
00:33:54,519 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: And we're gonna go let's go to New York here.

650
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,519
Speaker 2: Actually, these are Tokyo Brandon, the two where I live

651
00:34:00,519 --> 00:34:04,279
the closest major League Baseball team technically to where I

652
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,599
live is the Toronto Blue Jays. A lot of people

653
00:34:06,599 --> 00:34:10,679
don't realize that, but for me, like Roger Center is

654
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:15,639
about four hours away, Phillies Ballparks like four and a half,

655
00:34:16,559 --> 00:34:20,360
and then the two the two Yankees teams are four

656
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,679
and a half roughly, and.

657
00:34:21,599 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 1: Then it takes door to door. I can get to

658
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,719
Cleveland five hours.

659
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: So I'm pretty much like four or five hours away

660
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,840
from many MLB teams, and the closest one would be

661
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:37,039
going up through Buffalo going to Toronto. The Blue Jays

662
00:34:37,039 --> 00:34:39,559
would be the closest team to where I live. And

663
00:34:39,599 --> 00:34:42,599
they have a huge series here with the Yankees tonight.

664
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,719
So we have a bunch of chat chat requests for

665
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,000
this game, and yeah, this is a this is a

666
00:34:50,039 --> 00:34:50,840
massive series.

667
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,519
Speaker 1: I got asked. I did a show spot.

668
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,559
Speaker 2: For MGM yesterday and one of the things they kind

669
00:34:56,559 --> 00:34:58,360
of put me on the spot in the Al East

670
00:34:58,679 --> 00:35:01,159
and said, who are you taking al least? Do you

671
00:35:01,199 --> 00:35:03,199
think the Yankees come back and win this division? And

672
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,320
I said no, I said, I'm all in on the

673
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,519
Blue Jays. I was on the Blue Jays before they

674
00:35:07,519 --> 00:35:10,599
were playing well, and I'm going to see this out now.

675
00:35:11,599 --> 00:35:13,440
As far as this matchup's concerned, I don't know if

676
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,679
I feel that way, but long term, I'm on the

677
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,760
Blue Jays, very big series, very interesting matchup the Yankees.

678
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: J's what do you see in here?

679
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,079
Speaker 4: So Goussman is a guy who was an absolute study.

680
00:35:26,159 --> 00:35:28,639
By the way, guys, I'm going to promo again, I

681
00:35:28,639 --> 00:35:30,840
have a five percent play up, so go grab that.

682
00:35:31,559 --> 00:35:35,800
Download my picture sheets for free on my site at

683
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,400
wager Talk. And Adam's definitely going to have something out

684
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:38,880
as well.

685
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,039
Speaker 2: I just I put a play up. I just haven't

686
00:35:42,039 --> 00:35:44,360
put the brick out there yet, but yeah, I just

687
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,719
I locked in a four percenter already.

688
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:51,039
Speaker 4: So show us a little love there and now we'll

689
00:35:51,079 --> 00:35:53,719
get to my breakdown here. So Goussman used to be

690
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:58,440
an absolute stud. You know, he was like a Skeens

691
00:35:58,559 --> 00:36:00,960
or a scuball back in his day. But he's not

692
00:36:01,039 --> 00:36:04,519
that anymore. But he is very solid on my rankings.

693
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,159
I have him ranked right in the medium category around

694
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,679
fifteen out of thirty on a curve, where I have

695
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,800
Rodin ranked eleven on a curve. So I got Rodin

696
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:18,119
ranked a little higher. Bullpens Toronto's is performing a little better,

697
00:36:18,119 --> 00:36:21,440
and both lineups are top ten, So what do you

698
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,239
do well, I'm not going to play a side and

699
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,480
I'm not going to play a total. I looked at

700
00:36:26,599 --> 00:36:31,360
the pitcher versus hitters, and two guys just jumped way

701
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:35,679
off the page. Take a look at what Aaron Judge

702
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:42,079
has done against Goussman. Unbelievable stuff. Aaron Judge, where is

703
00:36:42,119 --> 00:36:45,599
he sixteen or forty three with six home runs in

704
00:36:45,639 --> 00:36:48,599
forty three at bats, a three seventy two ERA and

705
00:36:48,639 --> 00:36:52,480
a thirteen seventy oh ps. So I'm going to look

706
00:36:52,519 --> 00:36:57,840
for Aaron Judge's hits runs RBIs. Today Toronto's bullpen is

707
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,840
performing really well, which kind of scares me. But over

708
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,239
one and a half hits runs RBIs for Aaron Judge,

709
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,679
I think would be a good play. And another one

710
00:37:06,079 --> 00:37:09,599
if you look at Carlos Rodon. He's pitching really well,

711
00:37:09,639 --> 00:37:13,280
but this is a hitter's part. Guys in Toronto and Guerrero.

712
00:37:14,119 --> 00:37:17,960
He's nine for fifteen with one home run against Carlos Rodon.

713
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,679
He's got a six hundred average and a sixteen sixty

714
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,920
seven OPS. That is just sick, ridiculous stuff. So I'm

715
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,599
not gonna take a side or a total. I'm gonna

716
00:37:26,639 --> 00:37:29,880
focus on those hitters and maybe take a Hits Runs RBI.

717
00:37:30,039 --> 00:37:32,920
And I've said on shows past why I like hits

718
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,239
Runs RBIs better than total bases with total bases. Although

719
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,880
the show total bases is great, I don't bet it

720
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,800
because because if you walk, you lose one of your

721
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:43,960
at bouts and you only get maybe four in a game.

722
00:37:44,079 --> 00:37:48,159
So that's why I like hits Runs RBIs on.

723
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: This is the strongest total opinion I have for the

724
00:37:51,519 --> 00:37:54,000
day now. I don't really bet totals very often. It's

725
00:37:54,079 --> 00:37:56,559
just not a it's not a market I've had long

726
00:37:56,639 --> 00:38:00,440
term success, and so I pretty much save the totals

727
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,320
for you know, I have opinions on them, I just

728
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,360
rarely bet them as client plays. Don't think I've actually

729
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:07,960
given one out as a client play in like a

730
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,639
couple of years. Maybe last year I think I did

731
00:38:10,639 --> 00:38:13,119
one or two. So take that with a grain of salt.

732
00:38:13,119 --> 00:38:15,719
That being said, as far as where my numbers are

733
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,159
and just the way I handicap this, this has to

734
00:38:18,199 --> 00:38:19,000
be an over.

735
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,079
Speaker 1: I feel like, and if you're gonna get an.

736
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 2: Eight here now, this might be eight and a half

737
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,719
even someplaces now, but if you can get a juiced

738
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,800
eight here and the juice is like minus one twenty

739
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,000
or less, I really think over makes a lot of sense.

740
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,440
So first thing you kind of talked about it, Gossman's

741
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,079
having a really nice season, and I think there's something

742
00:38:38,079 --> 00:38:41,119
to be said for like these veteran guys when they're

743
00:38:41,159 --> 00:38:43,440
on a good team and then things start to go well.

744
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:45,920
I feel like that's when you see some of like

745
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,559
these like older veteran guys really like sort of you know,

746
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,360
kind of find the fountain of youth to an extent

747
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:53,119
where they're.

748
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:54,639
Speaker 1: Just like they look like they did when they were

749
00:38:54,639 --> 00:38:55,239
in their prime.

750
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 2: And that's sort of what I'm getting with Gossman a

751
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,360
little bit sort of watching and pitch this year. His

752
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,480
his off speed stuff has been fantastic. He's getting you know,

753
00:39:04,519 --> 00:39:06,599
he's getting swing and miss and he's just he looks

754
00:39:06,639 --> 00:39:09,480
really good. But that being said, the Yankees have seen

755
00:39:09,559 --> 00:39:12,679
so much Gossman over the years. You you already pointed

756
00:39:12,679 --> 00:39:16,719
out Judge being a potential play that that's true of

757
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,679
like a lot of this Yankees lineup, a lot of

758
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,679
them have good numbers against Gossman, and they have huge

759
00:39:21,679 --> 00:39:24,559
sample sizes against him. So I don't think he's gonna

760
00:39:24,599 --> 00:39:28,400
fool anyone on this Yankees team. And the Yankees certainly

761
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,519
woke up over the weekend like that that comeback win

762
00:39:31,639 --> 00:39:35,480
to win on Saturday and then win yesterday makes me

763
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,639
sort of hesitant to play against the Yankees going forward

764
00:39:38,639 --> 00:39:41,719
because as a New Yorker, as someone that's that's had

765
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,960
to live his entire life with delusional Yankees fans who

766
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,599
always think they're the World Series champs. I've come to

767
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,800
my like if you go to my group chat with

768
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:57,840
all my Siana Bus Yankee fans, Yeah, yeah, but like

769
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,719
I know, like it the ebbs and flows of this team,

770
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,920
like once once they get the game like they had Saturday,

771
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,679
where they come back and they win twelve nine, and

772
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:11,079
like they really snowballs for this team. And so I

773
00:40:11,199 --> 00:40:13,800
have no interest in like going against the Yankees right

774
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,079
now because I'm worried that this is like one of

775
00:40:16,079 --> 00:40:18,960
those runs where they rattle off five strict six straight wins.

776
00:40:19,079 --> 00:40:20,880
And of course, Tokyo, Brandon, you got to go back

777
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,159
to the last time these two teams played a couple

778
00:40:23,199 --> 00:40:26,119
of weeks ago, the Blue Jays slapped the Yankees around.

779
00:40:26,119 --> 00:40:29,039
Speaker 1: I think they swept that series. So the Yankees are

780
00:40:29,079 --> 00:40:30,239
gonna be very are they.

781
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 2: They either took three or four or swept them, So

782
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:34,719
the Yankees are going to be very hungry here. I

783
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,960
think to avenge that that sort of poor play the

784
00:40:38,079 --> 00:40:39,599
last time these two teams have played.

785
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 1: But the reason I like the over the Yankees.

786
00:40:42,159 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 2: Used a lot of bullpen in the last two days

787
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,840
to close out those two wins against the Braves and Rodon.

788
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,480
For as good as Rodona has been, he doesn't have

789
00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:53,440
you know, he's not like blowing people away with the

790
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,079
fastball at this point. No, it's like ninety three ninety four.

791
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,880
He spots it well, everything else is awesome. I mean,

792
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:03,239
he is an All Star, and this this line is

793
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,440
priced as if you have basically have two all star starters.

794
00:41:06,559 --> 00:41:09,400
But as you said, this Blue Jays lineup is great

795
00:41:09,599 --> 00:41:12,559
one through nine. They're having great at bats, and I

796
00:41:12,599 --> 00:41:15,840
think that they can sort of do enough against Radon

797
00:41:16,079 --> 00:41:18,599
where even if they don't blow or don't up, they're

798
00:41:18,599 --> 00:41:21,280
gonna battle and he's gonna be out after five six innings.

799
00:41:21,559 --> 00:41:24,199
Maybe you get into that Yankees bullpen. My gut tells

800
00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:26,719
me the Jays have some runs in them in this game.

801
00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:29,199
But they're gonna have a hard time out scoring the Yankees,

802
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:33,079
So give me the over eight in this one. Yeah,

803
00:41:33,119 --> 00:41:34,559
I mean, we'll do the parlay at the end, but

804
00:41:35,079 --> 00:41:36,440
that's probably the one I like.

805
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 1: You know, I like that quite a bit.

806
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:40,559
Speaker 4: Sure, all right?

807
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean, since, well, let's go to that game.

808
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,920
I didn't really Yeah, Brian's not gonna be back, so

809
00:41:47,199 --> 00:41:49,400
let's go to Kevin Picquette. Here in the chat, he says,

810
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,360
good morning, guys, Oriels Cleveland. Can we break this down?

811
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:57,559
Cleveland minus one thirty five seems a bit high. I

812
00:41:57,599 --> 00:41:59,239
agree with that because I don't think the Guardians are

813
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,360
a very good team. But it's your your boy to

814
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,400
almost Ugano on the mount for the Orioles.

815
00:42:04,599 --> 00:42:06,199
Speaker 1: I don't really want him either. So what are you

816
00:42:06,199 --> 00:42:06,880
gonna do with this one?

817
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 4: Tokyo brand, Yeah, this one, this one's got me a

818
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:18,920
little perplexed taking a look at how they match up.

819
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:23,280
I have the the the let's see, I got my

820
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:27,159
pictures mixed up here. Yeah, my guy Sagano, he's a

821
00:42:27,159 --> 00:42:29,760
little old. I was really surprised he went over to

822
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,360
the US this late in his career because he's on

823
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,000
the downside. He was a stud about four years ago.

824
00:42:36,039 --> 00:42:38,800
He's like Gusman basically he was a stud like four

825
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:44,400
years ago. But anyway, I have the Guardians soon to

826
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,519
be Indians again if if the President has his way.

827
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:50,239
But anyway, did you hear that story?

828
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,280
Speaker 1: I did, Yeah, that was.

829
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 4: We'll see what happens. So anyways, no politics on the show.

830
00:42:59,639 --> 00:43:03,440
So I've had the Guardians ranked higher and everything I

831
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:09,400
got Bibby ranked higher than Sugano. Sugano's era expected numbers

832
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:13,000
are really bad and I don't know why because I'm

833
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:14,840
looking at his stats. He doesn't strike out a lot

834
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,599
of guys, but his walks to strike out ratio is

835
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:20,920
not horrible. It's not in the good range, but it's

836
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:24,039
not horrible. I haven't ranked twenty eight out of thirty

837
00:43:24,559 --> 00:43:30,679
and that's mainly focusing on expected numbers and expected whobas

838
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:36,480
and expected eras and things like that. And Baltimore's bullpen

839
00:43:36,519 --> 00:43:39,320
has been bad and they're not hitting very well. So

840
00:43:39,639 --> 00:43:43,079
I have the Guardians ranked a lot higher in this one.

841
00:43:43,199 --> 00:43:44,840
So that would be the only way I would go.

842
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:46,960
It would be the Guardians. I haven't done it yet.

843
00:43:47,079 --> 00:43:51,639
Bibby's not walking anyone, so yeah, I mean Guardians are

844
00:43:51,679 --> 00:43:54,079
bust for me, but I haven't done it yet.

845
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:55,559
Speaker 1: Yeah.

846
00:43:55,599 --> 00:43:59,159
Speaker 2: I commented on the name change and someone on Twitter

847
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:00,880
was like, coming at like I was trying to make

848
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,960
it a political thing. I was like, listen, the Guardians

849
00:44:04,039 --> 00:44:06,559
is just a dumb name. I don't care what way

850
00:44:06,599 --> 00:44:09,239
you lean like. I don't care if they don't if

851
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:11,840
they don't go back to the the the Indians is

852
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:13,559
the team name. I don't see any problem with it.

853
00:44:13,599 --> 00:44:16,559
We have other teams that are still Indians. It's fine,

854
00:44:16,679 --> 00:44:19,840
but like, yeah, you had so much opportunity to do

855
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,320
something cool and you you came up with the Guardians

856
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,440
in a g that has angels wings on it as

857
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,239
your logo, like it was an all time fit. In

858
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:32,079
my opinion, I I still would have gone. I still

859
00:44:32,079 --> 00:44:36,480
would have gone with the Spiders. I I thought the Spiders.

860
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:38,760
But anyway, that's that's I don't like.

861
00:44:40,519 --> 00:44:42,599
Speaker 4: But I think the dumbest name in all of sports

862
00:44:42,639 --> 00:44:45,920
is the Pelicans. That's just such a stupid name. Sorry

863
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:51,840
if that's dumb. And anyway, back to Redskins because I'm

864
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,199
a traditionalist, so I'd like to see both of them

865
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:54,639
go back.

866
00:44:56,039 --> 00:44:57,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and while we're at it, maybe we can get

867
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,880
rid of the ghost Runner, because that that's to me

868
00:45:00,039 --> 00:45:01,440
would be that if I could.

869
00:45:01,639 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 1: Change one think that I hate the ghost Runner.

870
00:45:05,159 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 2: It is just excuse things, you know, I've I've been

871
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,840
a Guardian's hater on this show for a couple of

872
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:12,320
weeks now.

873
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,559
Speaker 1: And I don't think they're a.

874
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 2: I don't think they're I don't want to say I

875
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,360
don't want to say they're not a good team because

876
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:22,360
like that really becomes very subjective. I don't think they're

877
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,679
even close to the team they were last year. And

878
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:29,360
I still think the market prices them as you know

879
00:45:30,119 --> 00:45:32,639
they're they they tend to be priced more like last

880
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,920
year's Guardians than than what they should be priced as

881
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,400
a forty eight and fifty team that doesn't have a

882
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,239
great lineup, that that that has some question marks all

883
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,199
around the team. That's why, like, you know, I get

884
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,239
I get people in the chat they're like, why don't

885
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,599
you like the Tigers? Why don't you like the Guardians.

886
00:45:49,639 --> 00:45:51,599
I don't care about any of these teams. I just

887
00:45:51,679 --> 00:45:52,159
like betting.

888
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,639
Speaker 1: I'm just trying trying to find edges to win.

889
00:45:55,039 --> 00:45:57,519
Speaker 2: And the reason I've been so anti Guardians this year

890
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:59,719
is because of where they've been priced in the market,

891
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:01,639
and that's why I was anti Tigers for a while,

892
00:46:01,639 --> 00:46:04,280
because I just didn't agree with where they were priced

893
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,840
in the market. I like the guardians in this spot.

894
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:09,920
I think a lot of what you said has merried

895
00:46:10,039 --> 00:46:10,719
Tokyo Brandon.

896
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 1: I don't like Sugano at all.

897
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,679
Speaker 2: I was also I don't follow NPB like you do,

898
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,320
but I was also shocked. It reminded me of when

899
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,440
Kan John Yang came over from Korea late in his career.

900
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,159
It almost was like it's almost like he did everything

901
00:46:24,199 --> 00:46:26,920
that he could do in Japan and sort of like

902
00:46:27,039 --> 00:46:30,519
the final sort of way to test himself was can

903
00:46:30,559 --> 00:46:33,960
I go to America for a year and see how

904
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:34,400
it goes?

905
00:46:34,519 --> 00:46:36,599
Speaker 1: Right, It's like completes his career.

906
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:40,039
Speaker 2: Now, to Sugano's credit, he's actually been a lot better

907
00:46:40,079 --> 00:46:42,599
than I thought he was going to be to this point.

908
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,840
He's been much better than I thought he was going

909
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,320
to be to this point. That being said, I don't

910
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:51,719
think he is a quality MLB starter, and I'm going

911
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:53,840
to continue to try to find spots to fade him

912
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,039
if they're going to price him as such. The orioles

913
00:46:56,119 --> 00:46:58,079
Ar team that's always played worse on the road they

914
00:46:58,119 --> 00:47:00,000
always hit worse on the road. They're hitting numbers are

915
00:47:00,039 --> 00:47:02,760
worse on the road this year as well. If this

916
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,760
was a lefty for the Guardians, I'd be making this

917
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,400
a play because it's a right handed pitcher and the

918
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:11,079
Orioles do have success against right handed pitching. It'll stay

919
00:47:11,079 --> 00:47:13,239
a lean. But yeah, I'm with you. I kind of

920
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,360
it would be Guardians or pass for me here. I

921
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,559
just couldn't get down with that minus one thirty price

922
00:47:17,599 --> 00:47:18,599
tag just a little too.

923
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 4: Another thing that kind of scares me, Sorry to cut

924
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,400
you off. Another thing that kind of scares me is

925
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,199
the fact that the Guardians have a losing record at home.

926
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:27,320
That kind of bothers me.

927
00:47:28,599 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know what to think of that.

928
00:47:30,559 --> 00:47:33,119
Speaker 2: I feel like I feel like they'll probably so one

929
00:47:33,159 --> 00:47:36,400
thing about you know, especially if they're playing meaningful games

930
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,280
over the next few months and they could start to

931
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:39,440
get an atmosphere in there.

932
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:40,159
Speaker 1: I do know.

933
00:47:40,199 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 2: Brian Powers told me like, I don't think they I don't.

934
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,000
I think they've been struggling attendance wise. Don't quote me

935
00:47:46,039 --> 00:47:48,440
on that, but I feel like they've struggled in tendance wise,

936
00:47:49,039 --> 00:47:53,320
and I don't I like that's you know. I mean

937
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,519
that could be have something to do with it, But

938
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,400
I don't know if I'm like willing to be like, okay,

939
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,360
like they just aren't gonna win home game because the

940
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,480
last couple of years, I know they've been solid at

941
00:48:03,559 --> 00:48:06,239
home that you know, especially when like the fan base

942
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,679
has been engaged. But I just don't know if like

943
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:11,079
Cleveland fans are a little out on this team this year.

944
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:13,679
I don't was a disappointing end of the season last year,

945
00:48:13,679 --> 00:48:15,880
even though they had a really good year, they probably

946
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:17,679
felt like, you know, it was a little bit of

947
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:22,920
a heartbreaking end of the season. Yeah, Like, it's a

948
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,800
lot of interesting stuff going on there. I just don't

949
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:27,719
know how you lay minus won thirty minus one thirty

950
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:30,000
five with the guard But that's just me.

951
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,159
Speaker 4: But I would my number love him, My numbers love them,

952
00:48:33,159 --> 00:48:34,079
but I can't do it.

953
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 2: My numbers also suggest that I take the Guardians today, and.

954
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 1: I will not be doing it either.

955
00:48:40,039 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 4: I won't either because interesting. Another thing is sorry to

956
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,440
beat a dead horse on this game. But Sugano can

957
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:47,360
come out and have a gem too. He's one of

958
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,760
those guys who is just ass mustard and then suddenly

959
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:51,599
he has a good game.

960
00:48:51,599 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 1: It's mustard. I never got that.

961
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,519
Speaker 4: I got that from Scott Farrell on the Sports Green.

962
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,480
But anyway he can come out and have a good game,

963
00:49:03,519 --> 00:49:05,800
you never know. He's one of those guys that could

964
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,280
come out and just deal all of a sudden.

965
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,159
Speaker 2: So yeah, he has and he has done that this

966
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:13,239
year at times, which is which makes it a little

967
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:14,039
bit more difficult.

968
00:49:14,079 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 1: I think we'll go.

969
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 2: I was I want to go to this one because

970
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,559
we have more. There's like three people that were just man.

971
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,960
So let let's go to Giants Braves because this one

972
00:49:27,039 --> 00:49:30,960
really interests me. And this is one where, like I

973
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:35,519
saw this pitching matchup, and I do not think Bryce

974
00:49:35,519 --> 00:49:36,719
Elder is a big league pitcher.

975
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 1: I just don't like he has been. He he had

976
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:42,840
he he had an unreal.

977
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,519
Speaker 2: First half that that earned him an All Star nomination,

978
00:49:46,039 --> 00:49:48,559
and I've watched his whole career.

979
00:49:48,559 --> 00:49:50,800
Speaker 1: Tokyo Brandon, he's a he's a triple A starter.

980
00:49:51,519 --> 00:49:53,559
Speaker 2: I don't think he's like a big league starting pitcher,

981
00:49:55,119 --> 00:49:57,920
but he's favored here, and I don't know if I

982
00:49:58,039 --> 00:49:59,280
disagree with the break.

983
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:00,599
Speaker 1: With the Braves being favorite here.

984
00:50:00,599 --> 00:50:03,559
Speaker 2: Now. To Elder's credit, he was very good last time

985
00:50:03,559 --> 00:50:08,519
out against the A's, but again, the A's kind of

986
00:50:08,519 --> 00:50:10,559
a triple A lineup at times this year as well.

987
00:50:10,639 --> 00:50:12,920
So what do you make of this one? Because this

988
00:50:13,679 --> 00:50:15,679
is as intriguing of a matchup as there is to

989
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:19,480
me today. Elder Bird Song, Giants Braves two teams that

990
00:50:19,519 --> 00:50:22,280
sort of desperately need a good showing this series.

991
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: So how are you seeing this one?

992
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:28,760
Speaker 4: So we have in this one we have two horrible

993
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:33,559
starting pitchers. I don't like Bird's Song, I don't like Elder.

994
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:36,880
I have both of them ranked twenty one or worse

995
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:41,719
on a curve of thirty. Neither bullpen is playing well

996
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:46,760
at all, although you know San Francisco's got some talent

997
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,199
in their bullpen, but I don't think they're playing very well.

998
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,880
Atlanta's is definitely not playing very well. Did you see

999
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,320
what was that guy's name? Iglesis the other day man

1000
00:50:55,360 --> 00:51:01,559
he melted and San Francisco's not his, but Atlanta is hitting.

1001
00:51:01,599 --> 00:51:04,440
I have Atlanta ranked six in current form out of thirty,

1002
00:51:04,599 --> 00:51:08,039
and I got San Francisco ranked twenty seven, So if anything,

1003
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,199
I would take maybe a Braves over team total over.

1004
00:51:12,119 --> 00:51:14,719
Here's another thing is I haven't mentioned on the show

1005
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:19,679
yet but my chronic walker list. Hayden bird Song is

1006
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:23,159
on that chronic walker list. How bad is he regarding

1007
00:51:23,199 --> 00:51:28,519
walks in walks per nine? In the last for the

1008
00:51:28,519 --> 00:51:31,960
full season, he's close to five walks per nine and

1009
00:51:32,039 --> 00:51:35,159
in the last thirty days he's over seven walks per nine.

1010
00:51:36,039 --> 00:51:40,280
Atlanta's not exactly a team. Let me see, hang on, oh,

1011
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:44,239
I got the athletics here Atlanta. Atlanta walks three point

1012
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:50,320
seven per game, not per nine per game. So I

1013
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,639
think we're gonna see some walks here. So if you

1014
00:51:52,679 --> 00:51:55,119
can get bird Song for over two and a half

1015
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,559
is for plus money or over one and a half

1016
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,039
for minus one fifty or so, I think that would

1017
00:52:01,039 --> 00:52:01,960
be a good play as well.

1018
00:52:04,199 --> 00:52:07,199
Speaker 2: Totals Trigg today here on Monday, I'm gonna go another total.

1019
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 1: Actually this is I think.

1020
00:52:09,519 --> 00:52:12,840
Speaker 2: Listen, I do not, like I said, I really don't

1021
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,159
play totals often, so take it with a grain of salt.

1022
00:52:15,199 --> 00:52:18,760
That being said, I think the over in this game

1023
00:52:19,039 --> 00:52:21,960
and the over in that Yankees Jays game, I would

1024
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,679
be shocked if it's worse than a split. I see

1025
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:26,760
runs in both of these games, and I'll be really

1026
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,199
surprised if I get it so wrong. That both of

1027
00:52:29,199 --> 00:52:32,039
those games stay under, So do what you will with that.

1028
00:52:32,119 --> 00:52:34,800
I really think that that Yanks Jay's game is going over,

1029
00:52:35,079 --> 00:52:37,760
and I think this game Giants Braves is gonna go over.

1030
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:41,000
You kind of you know, said it like bird Song

1031
00:52:41,039 --> 00:52:43,199
I think has more upside out of the two. He

1032
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:45,960
still gets some swing and miss and and he's got

1033
00:52:46,039 --> 00:52:47,960
you know, he's young enough where he can he can

1034
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:51,559
harness some of this uh you know, he's he's still

1035
00:52:51,599 --> 00:52:54,400
young enough. I think twenty three years old kind of

1036
00:52:54,639 --> 00:52:57,519
kind of got rushed, you know, they got him up

1037
00:52:57,519 --> 00:53:00,440
to the big league level pretty quickly, so like he's

1038
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:03,639
definitely got the peripherals to be like, Okay, bird Song

1039
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,000
might might actually be a pretty good big league pitcher

1040
00:53:06,039 --> 00:53:09,719
at some point, but right now, I mean he's just

1041
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:13,639
you know, you're, like you said, doesn't have great command.

1042
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:15,880
A lot of walks, he's giving up a ton of

1043
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:19,639
hard hit. He doesn't give up many he's not keeping

1044
00:53:19,639 --> 00:53:21,440
the ball on the ground at all, so he's he's

1045
00:53:22,199 --> 00:53:25,360
prone to giving up the long ball. And this Braves

1046
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:28,360
lineup is still pretty good. Like I've said this probably

1047
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:30,960
on a couple of different occasions this year. If the

1048
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:32,639
Braves are going to blow things up, or if they

1049
00:53:32,679 --> 00:53:37,119
decide to blow things up, you got to keep the players.

1050
00:53:37,559 --> 00:53:39,760
Get rid of this entire get right, go blow up

1051
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:41,960
the front office, get rid of the coaching staff. I

1052
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,559
know they can't just fire Snicker. He's like been there

1053
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:46,840
for his entire life. They're gonna have to let him

1054
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:50,320
sort of go as he wants to go. But like that,

1055
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,360
that's the problem with the Braves. This like the way

1056
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:56,639
that they've constructed this bullpen, which is they don't have

1057
00:53:56,679 --> 00:53:57,719
any leverage arms.

1058
00:53:58,000 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 1: The bullpen's actually pretty good.

1059
00:53:59,559 --> 00:54:01,559
Speaker 2: They just don't have anyone that you want out there

1060
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:03,880
with the game on the line. But like the collection

1061
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,800
of arms isn't that bad. But then to to somehow

1062
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:10,199
still have Bryce Elders starting every fifth day at the

1063
00:54:10,199 --> 00:54:14,920
big league level is just crazy. He's he's literally bottom

1064
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:19,679
one percent pitching run value. He's he's just not he's

1065
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:23,440
just Chad Picard, Birdsarng's trash. Elders even worse. Like, yeah,

1066
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:26,000
it seems like that's a surface handicap, but that's really

1067
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:29,800
it's really the case, like these two starting pitchers should

1068
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,519
not hold the opponent down. Even the Giants are starting

1069
00:54:32,519 --> 00:54:34,920
to hit a little bit, so I think that you're

1070
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:37,760
getting I mean, what do we have here? Is this

1071
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,400
a nine flat for a total? Are we looking at

1072
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:42,079
nine flat in this one?

1073
00:54:42,159 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1074
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:44,039
Speaker 4: You could even alter it to eight and a half.

1075
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:46,679
Speaker 2: No, I don't think you need to. I don't even

1076
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:48,199
think you need to do that. Like if you have

1077
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:48,800
if you.

1078
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 5: Have nine, that's what I'm saying, if you can get

1079
00:54:53,039 --> 00:54:54,840
to if you That's why eight and a half of

1080
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:58,079
nine is key, because if you're looking at it like, okay,

1081
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,480
both these teams can get the forum at least rolling,

1082
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,239
I'd be shocked at both these teams don't get to

1083
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:03,719
four here.

1084
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:05,920
Speaker 1: So this is another one where I very much like

1085
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:07,559
the over Tokyo. Brandon.

1086
00:55:07,559 --> 00:55:09,599
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to you because I know you're dying

1087
00:55:09,639 --> 00:55:12,960
to promo something. But also you have Brian Leonard's parlay

1088
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:14,760
leg and I have not checked the chat yet, So

1089
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,559
I'm gonna let you give us out Brian's parlay Leg

1090
00:55:18,599 --> 00:55:20,079
and I think we all need to give one out

1091
00:55:20,119 --> 00:55:20,320
right now.

1092
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 1: I don't think we've locked anything yet.

1093
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 4: Okay, go ahead, what's the timestamp right now? What is it?

1094
00:55:25,559 --> 00:55:29,400
Fifty five twenty four, So at fifty five twenty four,

1095
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:35,480
Brian's parlay leg is Miami first half money line minus

1096
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:38,199
one fifty. That's Brian's leg.

1097
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:43,280
Speaker 1: So that's a Marlins first five minus one fifty.

1098
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:50,280
Speaker 4: Okay, and uh, let me type. I can't type and

1099
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,679
talk at the same time. It can never be one

1100
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:57,119
of those one of those drummers who sings because he can't.

1101
00:55:57,119 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 1: I can't do.

1102
00:55:57,679 --> 00:56:01,079
Speaker 4: Two things at the same time. But anyway, Yeah, let

1103
00:56:01,159 --> 00:56:06,440
me promote something ahead. Yeah, I'm laser focused. I have

1104
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:09,920
a one track mind, so it must be the alcohol.

1105
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:14,880
But five percent play for me. Adam has a playout

1106
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:18,679
today as well. Uh, you guys, a lot of you

1107
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,880
ask me, what what's your strikeout projection for Wheeler? What's

1108
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:26,599
your outs projection for Beyo? It's all on my sheet.

1109
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:28,519
If you go to my page at wager talk dot

1110
00:56:28,519 --> 00:56:30,559
com you can download it for free. I put all

1111
00:56:30,559 --> 00:56:34,360
my projections together and they're free. So yeah, that's what

1112
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:36,679
I wanted to promo. If you leave a comment and

1113
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:39,440
a like on the replay of this, we would appreciate it. It

1114
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:42,199
goes a long way to show wager Talk that baseball

1115
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:46,320
shows can be popular too. Should I give my parlay? Like?

1116
00:56:47,079 --> 00:56:51,280
Go ahead, yep, Okay, I'm going to take today I'm

1117
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:54,280
going to take I like the A's today and I don't.

1118
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:58,760
I can't figure out why they're underdogs, but they are,

1119
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,000
and since we're going to do a three leg parlay,

1120
00:57:01,199 --> 00:57:04,199
I'm going to take them plus one and a half.

1121
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:06,039
But I haven't looked up the odds yet, so I'm

1122
00:57:06,039 --> 00:57:07,119
gonna look it up right now.

1123
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 2: Why don't Why don't Why don't we talk about that

1124
00:57:09,519 --> 00:57:11,280
game first, because we haven't talked about it yet, and

1125
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,960
I have opinions as well, so well, you'll have time

1126
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:16,880
to look up the odds. Well, we'll lock it in

1127
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,239
at the end of the show, but go ahead, A's.

1128
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:22,199
We got A's Rangers because I'm with you. I was

1129
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,800
intrigued by this one as well, and I didn't think

1130
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:26,599
they should be underdogs here. So tell me why you

1131
00:57:26,599 --> 00:57:28,360
think the a should be favored in this game.

1132
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,559
Speaker 4: Okay, let me punch it in first, or maybe you

1133
00:57:31,599 --> 00:57:34,119
can talk about it first while I all right, punch

1134
00:57:34,199 --> 00:57:36,360
in my numbers and look up the odds.

1135
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so for me, for me, it came down to

1136
00:57:40,199 --> 00:57:44,760
first starting pitching. You know, I Jack Lighter has been

1137
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,719
a guy that I felt like at the big league

1138
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:51,599
level has been very much overrated. His entire time at

1139
00:57:51,599 --> 00:57:53,880
the big league level, and I don't know if it's

1140
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:56,440
the last name that kind of kind of continues to

1141
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:58,760
give him like chance after chance. I do think he's

1142
00:57:59,079 --> 00:58:01,880
very good. I think he's got a lot of upside

1143
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:05,440
and a lot of potential. But the Rangers just they

1144
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:10,800
seem to call him up at like, you know, disadvantageous times.

1145
00:58:11,639 --> 00:58:15,440
So it's like, I don't know if they've done him

1146
00:58:15,719 --> 00:58:17,960
a disservice a little bit as to when they call

1147
00:58:18,039 --> 00:58:20,559
him up, but I feel like he could have really

1148
00:58:20,599 --> 00:58:24,239
benefited from like a season at Triple A, and they

1149
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:26,199
just have really never given him that.

1150
00:58:26,719 --> 00:58:28,559
Speaker 1: And so you know, you look at.

1151
00:58:28,519 --> 00:58:31,639
Speaker 2: Last year he got called up and it was again

1152
00:58:31,679 --> 00:58:34,440
he only made nine starts, but it was just like

1153
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:37,320
no rhyme or reason when they were bringing him up.

1154
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:38,760
I think one time they brought him up as the

1155
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:41,239
twenty seventh band of pitching a doubleheader. That's not something

1156
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,440
you typically do to a young prospect. That's usually like

1157
00:58:45,159 --> 00:58:48,920
reserve for like your MLB journeyman, like thirty five year

1158
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,719
old that's like still down at Triple A, that like

1159
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:54,280
you don't care if he gets absolutely wrecked, like he's

1160
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,239
that's who you put in that to that scenario, and

1161
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,199
they did that to Light or twice last year.

1162
00:58:59,239 --> 00:59:02,079
Speaker 1: So the reason I'm harping on that for a second is.

1163
00:59:02,159 --> 00:59:05,519
Speaker 2: Last year Jack Lighter eight point eight three ere a

1164
00:59:05,599 --> 00:59:08,440
one point seven to one whip in nine appearances at

1165
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:11,079
the big league level. So far this year, he spent

1166
00:59:11,159 --> 00:59:13,960
more time at the big league level. You know, he

1167
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:18,559
was up starting in I would say really starting in May.

1168
00:59:18,599 --> 00:59:21,440
He spent a lot of April at Triple A and

1169
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,559
he's he's been sort of in the big league rotation

1170
00:59:23,639 --> 00:59:25,880
for most of the year. But again, this is a

1171
00:59:26,079 --> 00:59:31,719
former second overall pick twenty twenty one draft, second overall pick,

1172
00:59:32,719 --> 00:59:35,360
and it's like, I don't know if they they're just

1173
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:38,480
so sort of married to the fact that they drafted

1174
00:59:38,519 --> 00:59:41,719
him second overall, so it has to work. But he's

1175
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:43,519
the type of guy I think he should have an

1176
00:59:43,639 --> 00:59:47,320
entire season at Triple A and they haven't given him that,

1177
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:50,760
and because of that, he's he's just a very average

1178
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:52,760
pitcher at this point at the big league level. So

1179
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:57,639
that's why I'm I'm totally down to go. Like Lopez,

1180
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,920
in my opinion, has been awesome. Think you know he

1181
01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:04,440
can He's not a bad team, but he seems like

1182
01:00:04,559 --> 01:00:07,440
the more of the big league ready pitcher at this point.

1183
01:00:07,679 --> 01:00:11,039
And you've got two teams where like they've seen a

1184
01:00:11,039 --> 01:00:13,800
lot of Lighter over the years through the minors, right

1185
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,639
like the A's and the Rangers. Those those teams play

1186
01:00:16,639 --> 01:00:18,920
at double A and they play at Triple A constantly.

1187
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:23,719
So I think all this this A's lineup, all of

1188
01:00:23,719 --> 01:00:26,280
them have large sample size against Lighter, and he's not

1189
01:00:26,519 --> 01:00:29,079
like doing anything that's confusing anyone at the big league level.

1190
01:00:29,119 --> 01:00:32,320
Tokyo Brandon, So A's are a lineup. I think they

1191
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,039
could get to him. And you want to take you

1192
01:00:34,039 --> 01:00:35,920
want to give you me plus money in that scenario,

1193
01:00:36,039 --> 01:00:37,440
I'm very much with you there.

1194
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,159
Speaker 4: So my parlay leg is gonna be the A's plus

1195
01:00:41,159 --> 01:00:44,239
one and a half at minus one eighty on Pinnacle.

1196
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:46,840
Might be a better number somewhere else, but you know

1197
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:51,079
this is not that official minus one eighties. Fine with me.

1198
01:00:53,039 --> 01:00:57,679
So here's my breakdown of the game, Lopez and Lighter.

1199
01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:01,480
I got Lighter as another chronic he walks too many guys.

1200
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,920
The A's are hitting better. I got the A's lineup

1201
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,679
rank four in Major League Baseball in current form, where

1202
01:01:07,719 --> 01:01:09,880
I have the Rangers ranked fifteen. Right in the middle

1203
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,519
A's bullpen. I have them ranked three in current form,

1204
01:01:13,519 --> 01:01:16,159
and I know they're not that talented, but they're performing

1205
01:01:16,239 --> 01:01:20,960
that talented right now. And starting pitcher I have Lighter

1206
01:01:21,079 --> 01:01:23,760
leader Lighter. I have him ranked twenty six on a

1207
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,480
curve of thirty, where I have Jacob Lopez at ten.

1208
01:01:26,679 --> 01:01:31,440
So I got the A's a huge advantage. So out

1209
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:33,639
of thirty points, I have them twelve and a half

1210
01:01:33,679 --> 01:01:37,360
points better than the Rangers today. I don't know why

1211
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,199
they're not favorite. It kind of scares me, but I did. Actually,

1212
01:01:40,559 --> 01:01:44,320
and Danny l carbon Danny Espinoza in the comments, I

1213
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:47,360
agree with him wholeheartedly. The A's team total is three

1214
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:50,920
and a half. That's ridiculous. They're on the road, So

1215
01:01:51,559 --> 01:01:54,320
everything to me leads to either A's over on the

1216
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:57,840
team total, A's money line. Any way you can get

1217
01:01:57,840 --> 01:01:59,920
the A's I would take them today.

1218
01:02:00,079 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 2: Someone in the comments just made it a really good

1219
01:02:03,159 --> 01:02:06,360
city by today. Tell tell me a more underrated lineup

1220
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:08,000
than the A's right now, that's a great that's a

1221
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:12,320
great point. I mean this, this A's lineup a year

1222
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:14,400
or two from now is probably going to be like

1223
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:17,920
an elite lineup in Major League Baseball, if they all continue,

1224
01:02:18,079 --> 01:02:20,400
if they're all healthy, and they all sort of stay

1225
01:02:20,559 --> 01:02:23,840
on the trajectory they're on, I mean, they have so

1226
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:28,360
much upside on that team, so so much like talent.

1227
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:31,800
I mean, the talent is is insane when you talk

1228
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:34,519
about like what Nick Kurtz should end up being, what

1229
01:02:34,639 --> 01:02:37,039
Jacob Wilson should end up being, the fact that, like

1230
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:41,760
you know, Soderstrum has upside. Even Denzel Clark what a

1231
01:02:41,760 --> 01:02:44,559
player he is if he can hit, I mean he's like,

1232
01:02:44,639 --> 01:02:46,480
if he can like hit with any.

1233
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 1: Sort of consistency, he'd be the full package.

1234
01:02:48,679 --> 01:02:51,719
Speaker 2: And then you actually have proven guys like Lawrence Butler,

1235
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:54,840
Brett Rooker, and there's a whole host of guys at

1236
01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:57,639
the minor league level that might be able to get

1237
01:02:57,679 --> 01:03:00,480
in the mix. I mean, they are loaded with line talent.

1238
01:03:00,599 --> 01:03:02,760
And so yeah, I very much agree with that. And

1239
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:05,400
then just to go, I want to make a point here, Tokyo, Brandon,

1240
01:03:05,519 --> 01:03:06,719
we'll go a little long today.

1241
01:03:07,039 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have not you know, we'll go a few

1242
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:09,360
gets long.

1243
01:03:10,039 --> 01:03:11,960
Speaker 2: I want to make a point here that I've really

1244
01:03:12,039 --> 01:03:15,320
noticed over the last let's call it really more so

1245
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:17,360
this year, but I started to know this. This noticed

1246
01:03:17,360 --> 01:03:19,360
this last year too, and I think it it makes

1247
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,559
your case for Jacob Lopez being underrated to an extent.

1248
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:29,760
Velocity became such a big deal in baseball that all

1249
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,159
these it was like every pitcher needed to be throwing

1250
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:37,519
like ninety eight nasty movement, and every hitter said, oh shit,

1251
01:03:37,639 --> 01:03:40,000
all these guys can throw really hard now, so we

1252
01:03:40,079 --> 01:03:42,920
need to like, you have to be able to hit Velo,

1253
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:44,639
you have to be able to hit Vlo. And that's

1254
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:46,800
all the guys that are in the league right now.

1255
01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:49,599
The guys that are in there early to mid twenties

1256
01:03:50,079 --> 01:03:52,719
grew up playing at a younger level where all these

1257
01:03:53,239 --> 01:03:56,239
everyone had a nasty fastball that moved, and everyone had to.

1258
01:03:56,239 --> 01:03:58,239
Speaker 1: Be able to hit ninety nine one hundred.

1259
01:03:59,039 --> 01:04:01,079
Speaker 2: And now the guys that are flying under the radar

1260
01:04:01,159 --> 01:04:04,199
that are like better than the market, and that's what

1261
01:04:04,239 --> 01:04:07,239
we care about as betters are guys like Jacob Lopez

1262
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:10,960
who throw ninety but they command every single one of

1263
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:14,519
their pitches, and he has five different pitches and he

1264
01:04:14,559 --> 01:04:15,920
has command over all of them.

1265
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:19,760
Speaker 1: And the guys that aren't as good anymore are Jack Lighter.

1266
01:04:19,519 --> 01:04:22,719
Speaker 2: Who throws ninety eight and has this big fastball but

1267
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:25,199
doesn't have a single other pitch that can compliment it.

1268
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:27,360
Speaker 1: I just think that's super interesting.

1269
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:30,199
Speaker 2: It's something I've started to notice, and so I'm willing

1270
01:04:30,239 --> 01:04:32,280
to bet on that sort of dichotomy all day.

1271
01:04:33,000 --> 01:04:35,119
Speaker 4: I think the reason the line is what it is

1272
01:04:35,119 --> 01:04:37,400
is because the Rangers have a really good home record

1273
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:40,840
and the A's have a four away record. But honestly,

1274
01:04:41,719 --> 01:04:44,519
that doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot to me.

1275
01:04:45,079 --> 01:04:47,920
And if the Rangers are coming home off of a

1276
01:04:48,039 --> 01:04:51,039
road trip, that's even detrimental to that. I don't know

1277
01:04:51,039 --> 01:04:53,199
if they are or not. I haven't checked it yet.

1278
01:04:53,679 --> 01:04:56,159
I can't do two things at once. But if they're

1279
01:04:56,199 --> 01:04:59,599
coming back home from a road trip, home doesn't mean

1280
01:04:59,719 --> 01:05:02,519
home is actually a detriment. You know, would you rather

1281
01:05:02,599 --> 01:05:06,360
be out with thirty of your buddies hanging out in

1282
01:05:06,519 --> 01:05:08,880
Los Angeles or Las Vegas, or would you rather be

1283
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:11,079
at home, you know, putting your kids to it.

1284
01:05:11,639 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 2: So I mean, listen the other thing too, Like there's

1285
01:05:14,800 --> 01:05:18,559
some man, I think I think the A's probably probably

1286
01:05:18,599 --> 01:05:20,960
prefer playing on the road at this point. Like it's

1287
01:05:21,239 --> 01:05:22,719
you know what I mean, It's it feels like Big

1288
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,559
League Baseball as opposed to like their home stadium is

1289
01:05:25,599 --> 01:05:27,880
a minor league park in a town that didn't really

1290
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:30,480
embrace them, and they didn't embrace that town. But the

1291
01:05:30,519 --> 01:05:32,440
other thing I think that, I think this goes back

1292
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,000
to what the Rangers were supposed to be coming into

1293
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:35,519
this season.

1294
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:38,239
Speaker 1: It's it's clear that they're not that.

1295
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:39,719
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're ever going to be that,

1296
01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:42,360
and so they're going to continue to get priced as

1297
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:44,400
the team that was supposed to win the AL West

1298
01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:46,519
and they're just they're not going to win the AO West.

1299
01:05:46,519 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 1: I think I was even wrong about them to an extent.

1300
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:51,239
Speaker 2: I thought there was going to be this big resurgence

1301
01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:53,320
for this team, and now they are just very much

1302
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:54,800
a five hundred ball club.

1303
01:05:56,360 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 3: I think.

1304
01:05:56,920 --> 01:06:00,760
Speaker 4: So, yeah, sorry, go ahead, No, I'm just.

1305
01:06:00,719 --> 01:06:01,599
Speaker 1: I'm just agreeing with that.

1306
01:06:01,599 --> 01:06:03,239
Speaker 2: I think there were a five hundred ball club, and

1307
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:05,199
I think the wrong team is favored here. I may

1308
01:06:05,239 --> 01:06:07,639
even play the A's for clients. That's what I'm gonna

1309
01:06:07,679 --> 01:06:09,519
have to take a harder look at. But I'm very

1310
01:06:09,559 --> 01:06:10,440
hard When you were on that.

1311
01:06:11,039 --> 01:06:14,039
Speaker 4: Yeah, I already did. It was plus one thirty when

1312
01:06:14,039 --> 01:06:15,920
I got it. Why are they plus one thirty with

1313
01:06:16,000 --> 01:06:18,239
that lineup. That's crazy.

1314
01:06:18,559 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, like that that may have is one of those.

1315
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:24,000
Speaker 4: Teams they're just like something about them. You know, it's

1316
01:06:24,079 --> 01:06:26,639
like two years from now, if they can keep that core,

1317
01:06:26,719 --> 01:06:29,440
if they can keep Rooker from going to the Yankees

1318
01:06:29,559 --> 01:06:31,960
or something, if they can keep that core man, once

1319
01:06:31,960 --> 01:06:34,039
they hit Las Vegas, they're going to be like the

1320
01:06:34,559 --> 01:06:37,199
like the the Golden Knights were when they hit Las Vegas.

1321
01:06:37,199 --> 01:06:40,679
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, I'm very much in on this team

1322
01:06:40,719 --> 01:06:41,519
long term. TV.

1323
01:06:41,639 --> 01:06:43,639
Speaker 2: You may have even I'm gonna have to go look

1324
01:06:43,639 --> 01:06:45,440
at this one a little harder. I might even take

1325
01:06:45,519 --> 01:06:48,599
plus one ten, even if I know I missed out

1326
01:06:48,639 --> 01:06:50,239
on the great number you got, but I might have

1327
01:06:50,280 --> 01:06:53,079
to take uh plus one ten. Here and and Batman

1328
01:06:53,119 --> 01:06:56,239
in the chat, Adam Batman Westbury shout out to you. Yeah,

1329
01:06:56,239 --> 01:06:59,119
how could I forget sh Shaye Langeliers. I mean the names,

1330
01:06:59,440 --> 01:07:02,800
It just that there's there's guys. I'm even you know,

1331
01:07:02,920 --> 01:07:04,840
the name. It just goes on and on and on.

1332
01:07:05,079 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 1: The number of guys that they have if they had

1333
01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:08,840
starting pitching.

1334
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:13,519
Speaker 2: But hey, maybe maybe Lopez is that consistent starter. He

1335
01:07:13,599 --> 01:07:18,159
certainly has the he certainly has the makeup. If he

1336
01:07:18,199 --> 01:07:20,880
can be consistent. He can stay in that rotation, as

1337
01:07:21,159 --> 01:07:23,239
you know, for a long time. So that's a that's

1338
01:07:23,239 --> 01:07:24,559
a good degners.

1339
01:07:24,280 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 4: Really good. Like I said, I have him ranked number

1340
01:07:26,519 --> 01:07:28,679
six on a curve of thirty. I don't know if

1341
01:07:28,679 --> 01:07:32,239
he's that talented. I don't know, but his expected numbers

1342
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:33,639
data says he is.

1343
01:07:34,039 --> 01:07:37,840
Speaker 2: So all right, we're gonna I know we went over today,

1344
01:07:37,880 --> 01:07:39,920
but that's all right, We're gonna keep going.

1345
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:41,440
Speaker 1: I got I got one more game.

1346
01:07:41,519 --> 01:07:44,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna close the parlay out here and we'll talk

1347
01:07:44,519 --> 01:07:45,079
about this game.

1348
01:07:45,119 --> 01:07:45,880
Speaker 1: Then we'll get out of here.

1349
01:07:45,880 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 2: So you guys are getting an extra ten minutes today,

1350
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:51,239
but we had a little technical difficulties and so you know,

1351
01:07:51,679 --> 01:07:53,840
we we'll go a little longer this morning. I'm gonna

1352
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:57,000
use the Cardinals. Cardinals on the money line. That'll be

1353
01:07:57,039 --> 01:07:59,480
the final parlay leg. So we'll have so we've got

1354
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:02,800
some jews, but that's okay. We'll figure out what that

1355
01:08:02,840 --> 01:08:05,679
three teamer is. I think the Cardinals right now are

1356
01:08:05,760 --> 01:08:10,280
minus one fifty. Do we have I'm just gonna look

1357
01:08:10,280 --> 01:08:12,280
at like the two books I have pulled up, and

1358
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:15,000
I'll I don't think this is gonna vary that much

1359
01:08:15,039 --> 01:08:16,319
it's just a it's just a side.

1360
01:08:16,359 --> 01:08:18,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll call it minus one fifty so.

1361
01:08:21,520 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 2: Reason reason I like the Cardinals, and then I'll give

1362
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:27,720
you a chance to rebuttal. They just got slapped around,

1363
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:31,039
slapped around all weekend by the Diamondbacks.

1364
01:08:31,520 --> 01:08:34,880
Speaker 1: They were they were the Cardinals. I'm sorry. The Diamondbacks

1365
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:37,279
were the clear better team in that series.

1366
01:08:38,199 --> 01:08:41,840
Speaker 2: I felt like the Diamondbacks consistently matched up better than

1367
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:45,439
the Cardinals in that series, and so it doesn't surprise me,

1368
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:48,840
although I was a little surprised on Saturday. I did

1369
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:51,439
do a video on Saturday where I kind of talked

1370
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:53,760
about liking the Cardinals. I did not bet it, but

1371
01:08:53,840 --> 01:08:56,600
I like the Cardinals. In that Saturday matchup, Sonny Gray

1372
01:08:56,640 --> 01:08:58,840
got blown up and it was all she wrote. And

1373
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:03,159
that really was the the weekend for the Cardinals. I

1374
01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:06,279
think that this is going to be a very favorable

1375
01:09:06,479 --> 01:09:11,840
sort of follow up to that Diamondback series. No bigger

1376
01:09:11,880 --> 01:09:13,880
wake up call when you're a team like the Cardinals.

1377
01:09:14,159 --> 01:09:16,479
Who and I just want to post Yeah, so who

1378
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:18,399
came into the came out of the All Star break

1379
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:20,840
fifty one and forty six and very much in the

1380
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:24,319
mix for a playoff position. Go out to the desert

1381
01:09:24,359 --> 01:09:28,399
and just get slapped around all weekend. You're still on

1382
01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:30,640
the road, but now you get to go up to Corusfield,

1383
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:33,199
and in my opinion, like that has to be a

1384
01:09:33,199 --> 01:09:35,840
wake up and they and these are these have now

1385
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:37,399
become games that.

1386
01:09:37,359 --> 01:09:39,720
Speaker 1: Are very, very important to this Cardinals team.

1387
01:09:40,239 --> 01:09:43,279
Speaker 2: And I think you're gonna get a very focused So

1388
01:09:44,039 --> 01:09:46,159
you guys don't think it's suspicious seeing the Rockies as

1389
01:09:46,159 --> 01:09:49,399
plus one thirty seven dogs. I'll address that. I think

1390
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:53,439
they're plus one thirty seven dogs because Mike McGreevy is

1391
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:55,760
the starter here for the Cardinals, and no one knows

1392
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:59,279
who Michael McGreevy is. So he's been at Triple A

1393
01:09:59,359 --> 01:10:04,479
most of the year, but he's been fantastic all season,

1394
01:10:04,640 --> 01:10:07,000
even at the big league level, even on a couple

1395
01:10:07,000 --> 01:10:09,680
of chances he's gotten in the big leagues, he's been

1396
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:12,680
very good and he's put together a great season at

1397
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:13,159
Triple A.

1398
01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:15,399
Speaker 1: So I think that this.

1399
01:10:15,479 --> 01:10:19,479
Speaker 2: Is cheap because the Rockies tend to get some love

1400
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:22,600
at home, even in a historically bad season. They beat

1401
01:10:22,640 --> 01:10:24,279
the Twins the other night. They're gonna win some of

1402
01:10:24,279 --> 01:10:27,399
these home games. But I think this is getting priced

1403
01:10:27,399 --> 01:10:29,800
as such because the Cardinals just lost three straight games

1404
01:10:29,880 --> 01:10:32,119
and they're gonna put out a pitcher that none of

1405
01:10:32,159 --> 01:10:34,680
you know. Maybe some of you know who Mike mcgrievey is,

1406
01:10:35,039 --> 01:10:37,640
but most people don't. And that's why this line is

1407
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:40,239
the way it is. I'm telling you that what I've

1408
01:10:40,239 --> 01:10:42,359
seen from him this year at both the big league

1409
01:10:42,399 --> 01:10:44,000
level and Triple A has been very impressive.

1410
01:10:44,279 --> 01:10:46,760
Speaker 1: So that's someone I would am willing to bet on.

1411
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:49,279
Speaker 2: And I think Tokyo Brandon, if this was a name

1412
01:10:49,279 --> 01:10:52,359
that people recognize, the Cardinals will be a two dollars favorite. Here,

1413
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:56,039
you're still getting the Cardinals up against Austin Gomber. Okay,

1414
01:10:56,880 --> 01:11:00,119
they can beat Austin Gombert. Austin Gomber is not. I

1415
01:11:00,119 --> 01:11:04,079
mean at this point, he's a mid five e er guy,

1416
01:11:04,159 --> 01:11:06,239
Like he's never going to be anything other than that.

1417
01:11:07,039 --> 01:11:09,800
He's still in the big leagues because you know he

1418
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:12,680
can he can go out and survive five innings at

1419
01:11:12,680 --> 01:11:16,920
course field. So yeah, this is a scenario where I

1420
01:11:16,960 --> 01:11:19,239
think the Cardinals are very very discounted. I think they

1421
01:11:19,239 --> 01:11:21,840
should be like a two dollars favorite, maybe more. And

1422
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:26,119
so I'm going to uh so I want to keep cout,

1423
01:11:26,239 --> 01:11:29,319
Like so tri Trigg has the Cards going around from

1424
01:11:29,359 --> 01:11:33,760
slapped around in playing slap mask baseball. I feel like

1425
01:11:33,760 --> 01:11:36,760
people are missing the point. Okay, I just said the

1426
01:11:36,800 --> 01:11:39,039
Cardinals came out of the All Star Break, they were

1427
01:11:39,399 --> 01:11:42,520
clearly lethargic, and they got slapped around in the desert.

1428
01:11:43,239 --> 01:11:45,560
I'm now telling you I don't even think the Cardinals

1429
01:11:45,560 --> 01:11:48,039
have to play their best game to win here. I

1430
01:11:48,079 --> 01:11:50,239
think if the Cardinals do play their best game, they

1431
01:11:50,279 --> 01:11:53,399
probably win by eight runs. That's what I'm trying to say,

1432
01:11:53,479 --> 01:11:55,760
is like, you're getting a Cardinals team in a desperate

1433
01:11:55,800 --> 01:11:59,279
spot at a dollar fifty when they should be upwards

1434
01:11:59,279 --> 01:12:02,840
of two dollars, with a picture that's better than any

1435
01:12:03,119 --> 01:12:06,479
of you probably realize because you haven't really because he's

1436
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:09,079
not a known commodity. But he's been down at Triple

1437
01:12:09,119 --> 01:12:11,600
A having a great season, and every time he gets

1438
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:14,439
called up he does well. So yeah, that's why I

1439
01:12:14,479 --> 01:12:16,279
like the Cardinals. I don't know what's so hard to

1440
01:12:16,359 --> 01:12:18,439
understand about that. Tokyo Brandon, Do you have any follow

1441
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:18,840
up there?

1442
01:12:20,239 --> 01:12:23,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, go to our replay and hit the like and

1443
01:12:23,479 --> 01:12:25,840
leave a comment for us. Tell wager Talk you love us.

1444
01:12:26,279 --> 01:12:28,439
I have a five percent out. Adam has a play

1445
01:12:28,479 --> 01:12:32,680
out today. Download my data sheet. It's all free, every picture,

1446
01:12:32,720 --> 01:12:38,640
breakdown and strikeout, projection outs, projection everything. So regarding this game,

1447
01:12:39,560 --> 01:12:42,199
I see a lot of people funny comments. There was

1448
01:12:42,239 --> 01:12:45,239
actually a Coco Crisp reference in the comments as well.

1449
01:12:45,279 --> 01:12:48,000
I didn't know we're doing funny MLB names.

1450
01:12:48,039 --> 01:12:48,920
Speaker 1: But so.

1451
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:54,399
Speaker 4: A lot of people saying I don't trust McGreevy. I

1452
01:12:54,399 --> 01:12:57,000
don't try, But do you trust Gomber? Seriously?

1453
01:12:57,720 --> 01:12:59,520
Speaker 1: Do you trust?

1454
01:13:01,319 --> 01:13:03,359
Speaker 4: There's a Yan and a yang, guys, it's not just

1455
01:13:03,399 --> 01:13:09,600
the ying, right. So my rankings have Gomber ranked. I

1456
01:13:09,600 --> 01:13:12,800
have Gomber ranked thirty out of thirty. You guys, he's horrible,

1457
01:13:13,159 --> 01:13:15,000
and he's even worse at home. I think he has

1458
01:13:15,039 --> 01:13:18,560
like a seven plus e RA at home. Granted, I

1459
01:13:18,560 --> 01:13:21,159
don't know a lot about McGreevy, but do you need

1460
01:13:21,199 --> 01:13:22,960
to know a lot about him? I did look him up.

1461
01:13:23,279 --> 01:13:25,560
He doesn't go deep into games. So the bullpen might

1462
01:13:25,600 --> 01:13:29,680
be taking up a bit of the slack. The Rockies

1463
01:13:29,720 --> 01:13:33,960
are hitting the ball well so, but the Cardinal bullpen

1464
01:13:34,079 --> 01:13:36,760
is great and the Rockies bullpen is not performing well

1465
01:13:36,840 --> 01:13:39,680
right now, Cardinals would be the only way to go.

1466
01:13:39,760 --> 01:13:41,119
But I do think there will be a lot of

1467
01:13:41,359 --> 01:13:44,159
runs scored, and I do think McGreevy will probably give

1468
01:13:44,239 --> 01:13:49,399
up three, maybe four earned runs. But do you really

1469
01:13:49,520 --> 01:13:53,000
like Gomber? That's the question he's telling me.

1470
01:13:53,079 --> 01:13:56,159
Speaker 2: And what would be the what would be the problem

1471
01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:59,960
if the Cardinals' bullpen is involved early? They haven't really

1472
01:14:00,199 --> 01:14:02,199
used any of their best arms. They've been they've been

1473
01:14:02,199 --> 01:14:05,119
blown out three straight days, like, they've lost three straight

1474
01:14:05,159 --> 01:14:08,399
games in a row. So they have every leverage arm

1475
01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:10,239
that they could ask for available here.

1476
01:14:10,319 --> 01:14:13,000
Speaker 1: So what would be the problem if mcgreevy's goes short?

1477
01:14:13,039 --> 01:14:15,720
So what you got to? I mean a clear better bullten?

1478
01:14:17,880 --> 01:14:23,039
Speaker 4: Yeah exactly, I totally agree. And the Cardinals lineup not

1479
01:14:23,159 --> 01:14:25,640
performing as well as the Rockies lineup right now, which

1480
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:29,399
is a bit of a concern. Also, the Cardinals away

1481
01:14:29,439 --> 01:14:31,760
record is a little bit of a concern. But when

1482
01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:36,760
you look at the Rockies twelve and thirty seven, I mean,

1483
01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:38,479
the Cardinals are not a great team, but they are

1484
01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:41,279
fifty one and forty nine. At least they're a decent,

1485
01:14:41,399 --> 01:14:45,319
put together baseball team. I think that's just just that

1486
01:14:45,439 --> 01:14:48,399
alone is good enough to probably get a win here. Yeah,

1487
01:14:48,520 --> 01:14:50,800
it's priced high, maybe take.

1488
01:14:51,319 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 2: I don't see high that's what he's saying. It's not

1489
01:14:54,600 --> 01:14:57,000
priced high. That's what I'm talking about.

1490
01:14:57,000 --> 01:14:57,439
Speaker 1: You have a hit.

1491
01:14:57,720 --> 01:14:59,600
Speaker 2: The Rockies might be one of the go down is

1492
01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:01,920
one of the worst teams in the history of baseball

1493
01:15:01,960 --> 01:15:04,119
this year when it's all said and done. Yeah, and

1494
01:15:04,199 --> 01:15:08,039
the Cardinals are a dollar fifty favorite in a game

1495
01:15:08,079 --> 01:15:09,039
that they need to win.

1496
01:15:09,399 --> 01:15:11,600
Speaker 1: Like that's the thing, that's the whole handicap.

1497
01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:14,600
Speaker 2: It's not price high. They should be like minus two twenty,

1498
01:15:15,520 --> 01:15:16,399
like got it.

1499
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:22,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, And so let me make a comparison. Like a

1500
01:15:22,359 --> 01:15:24,479
lot of people come into sports betting and say, I'm

1501
01:15:24,479 --> 01:15:27,199
not laying one sixty. I'm not laying one sixty. But

1502
01:15:28,000 --> 01:15:30,680
when we lay the numbers like that, it's like buying something.

1503
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,399
So it's like saying I'm never spending one thousand dollars.

1504
01:15:33,399 --> 01:15:35,680
I'm never spending one thousand dollars. But if someone brought

1505
01:15:35,680 --> 01:15:39,079
you a Lamborghini, you'll spend one thousand dollars because it's value. Right.

1506
01:15:39,199 --> 01:15:41,560
So this is how you should have approached sports betting.

1507
01:15:41,600 --> 01:15:44,760
Don't say I never do X. You know, I never

1508
01:15:44,800 --> 01:15:46,640
do this, I never do that. You'll do it if

1509
01:15:46,680 --> 01:15:47,479
the price is right.

1510
01:15:48,199 --> 01:15:52,560
Speaker 2: So and listen, it's just it's again, it's just one game,

1511
01:15:52,600 --> 01:15:55,800
and I do think there's there's some merit to like

1512
01:15:56,239 --> 01:15:59,840
you really don't want to just constantly lay big prices

1513
01:16:00,279 --> 01:16:02,800
like against like the rock The Rockies are playing better

1514
01:16:02,840 --> 01:16:06,239
ball and they are gonna win some games like they

1515
01:16:06,399 --> 01:16:10,199
I actually think going forward they'll probably be they'll probably

1516
01:16:10,239 --> 01:16:12,159
be more prop While it's hard to be worse than

1517
01:16:12,159 --> 01:16:14,840
they were going into the break, I definitely think that

1518
01:16:14,880 --> 01:16:17,600
they could potentially be profitable against the number in the

1519
01:16:17,640 --> 01:16:20,319
second half, Like they're gonna probably win some games as

1520
01:16:20,319 --> 01:16:23,000
a pretty big dog. That makes them okay against the number.

1521
01:16:23,640 --> 01:16:26,840
What I'm saying here is that's a that's a A.

1522
01:16:27,039 --> 01:16:29,079
I just think it's a very cheap price for a

1523
01:16:29,119 --> 01:16:31,279
Cardinals team that has their whole bullpen.

1524
01:16:32,199 --> 01:16:33,439
Speaker 1: McGreevey's been good.

1525
01:16:33,520 --> 01:16:36,840
Speaker 2: Good enough, he's he's he's tracked on my minor league

1526
01:16:36,840 --> 01:16:40,359
pitcher ratings this year, And it really has become a

1527
01:16:40,399 --> 01:16:43,880
game the Cardinals desperately need after what happened this weekend.

1528
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:48,840
And if it's just they this organization, the Cardinals, they

1529
01:16:48,880 --> 01:16:50,760
win this game, I don't know how else to put it.

1530
01:16:51,119 --> 01:16:53,319
Like when they need a win to stay stay in

1531
01:16:53,359 --> 01:16:55,880
the mix, they find a way, and I think they

1532
01:16:55,880 --> 01:16:56,680
find a way tonight.

1533
01:16:56,760 --> 01:17:00,319
Speaker 1: So without further ado, thanks for letting us go along today.

1534
01:17:00,359 --> 01:17:02,399
Speaker 2: Hey, we didn't have we only had one show last week,

1535
01:17:02,479 --> 01:17:05,119
so we had to come out and go to go

1536
01:17:05,159 --> 01:17:07,439
fifteen minutes longer today and I love.

1537
01:17:09,079 --> 01:17:09,119
Speaker 4: It.

1538
01:17:09,439 --> 01:17:10,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian Bryan.

1539
01:17:11,399 --> 01:17:13,600
Speaker 2: Bryan also is not here to give us the ten

1540
01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:15,960
am hard out, but like I can sit here, and

1541
01:17:16,680 --> 01:17:19,479
I could sit here and argue with this wall about

1542
01:17:19,479 --> 01:17:20,399
the Cardinals all day.

1543
01:17:20,439 --> 01:17:21,399
Speaker 1: I love doing it me too.

1544
01:17:21,479 --> 01:17:24,239
Speaker 4: I really could for hours.

1545
01:17:25,159 --> 01:17:26,119
Speaker 1: So we won't.

1546
01:17:27,319 --> 01:17:31,439
Speaker 2: So our three team are today plus three thirty two odds.

1547
01:17:31,920 --> 01:17:33,880
I think that's fine. We're you know, we really want

1548
01:17:33,880 --> 01:17:36,520
to hit one of these. Get the momentum going back

1549
01:17:36,520 --> 01:17:38,960
in our favor. Still plus four point nine units are

1550
01:17:39,039 --> 01:17:41,920
up four dollars and ninety cents for every dollar if

1551
01:17:41,960 --> 01:17:43,720
you've been playing him since the beginning of the season.

1552
01:17:43,760 --> 01:17:47,479
So even though our bank role is dwindling away, we're

1553
01:17:47,520 --> 01:17:50,199
still ahead and we can still get back ahead if

1554
01:17:50,239 --> 01:17:52,239
we can have a strong week, and I hope it

1555
01:17:52,279 --> 01:17:56,760
starts here. So Brian Leonard Marlin's first five money line

1556
01:17:56,800 --> 01:17:59,880
that's minus one fifty Tokyo. Brandon is going with the

1557
01:18:00,760 --> 01:18:04,319
plus one and a half minus one eighty. And remember,

1558
01:18:04,920 --> 01:18:06,800
I think if you want to bet these separate, if

1559
01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:09,239
you want to bet the A's game and not put

1560
01:18:09,239 --> 01:18:11,399
it in the parlay, I think you just bet the A's,

1561
01:18:11,520 --> 01:18:13,479
don't don't bet plus one and a half. But for

1562
01:18:13,520 --> 01:18:16,319
the parlay, we're just you know, we're putting a three

1563
01:18:16,359 --> 01:18:18,279
teamer together. We'll take the run and a half, so

1564
01:18:19,000 --> 01:18:21,880
Marlin's first five money line A's plus one and a half,

1565
01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:24,720
and I will go with the Cardinals minus one fifty.

1566
01:18:25,000 --> 01:18:27,520
That is a plus three thirty two parlay. And I

1567
01:18:27,600 --> 01:18:30,520
hope kicks off a nice run of these because after

1568
01:18:30,600 --> 01:18:33,199
starting strong, we've kind of, you know, we're kind of

1569
01:18:33,239 --> 01:18:35,439
trending back toward even so we want to get back

1570
01:18:35,479 --> 01:18:38,319
into the profit with these, and I think we do today.

1571
01:18:38,359 --> 01:18:40,039
Thanks for letting us go along today. We had a

1572
01:18:40,079 --> 01:18:43,039
bunch of people joined late. This show is always up

1573
01:18:43,279 --> 01:18:44,279
on demand Tokyo.

1574
01:18:44,359 --> 01:18:45,199
Speaker 1: Brandon take us.

1575
01:18:45,159 --> 01:18:48,920
Speaker 4: Out five percent play for me. Adam's got to play up.

1576
01:18:49,000 --> 01:18:52,680
Download all my stats at my page, projections and everything.

1577
01:18:52,720 --> 01:18:55,680
It's everything you need for DFS and to win your

1578
01:18:55,680 --> 01:18:59,319
bets today. Have a great day, guys, Let's win some

1579
01:18:59,479 --> 01:19:01,239
money and we'll be back tomorrow night.

1580
01:19:02,520 --> 01:19:06,079
Speaker 2: Like subscribe if you want to leave a comment about

1581
01:19:06,399 --> 01:19:10,079
the Rockies or anything. We take all comments, good bad.

1582
01:19:10,319 --> 01:19:12,600
Tell us what you think hop Alo in the comments

1583
01:19:12,600 --> 01:19:17,359
on the YouTube, and we will see you guys tomorrow morning.

1584
01:19:18,279 --> 01:19:21,439
Tomorrow morning, nine am, hopefully back with Brian Leonard on

1585
01:19:21,479 --> 01:19:23,359
a nice solid Internet connection.

1586
01:19:24,039 --> 01:19:28,239
Speaker 1: We'll see you guys tomorrow morning. Have a great day.