Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Happy Monday morning.
Speaker 2: Welcome in is a time for Total Basis your free
pick major League Baseball betting show right here on the
wager Talk YouTube channel Tokyo. Brandon showing off his new
Neon sign. It's actually very cool. I gotta do something
behind me. I've been opting for the like plane backdrop.
I think I need a Neon sign TV. I might
get one that matches yours, but we're gonna get right
into it. This is a busy Monday slate. It looks
like they gave us a reasonable slate on a Monday,
coming out of the break. I want to start listen
when they put together the twenty twenty five Milwaukee Brewers
season sort of look back highlight reel if you will,
they're probably gonna credit like this show with sort of
sparking the Brewers run they sweep the Dot. I gotta
be honest. I didn't play a single thing in that series,
Brian Leonard, but I am very, very surprised that they
were able to come out of the break, continue that
momentum and sweep the Dodgers again. I just didn't think
that that was going to be the case. This team
has now won ten straight games, eleven of twelve. Pretty
much since that Mets doubleheader Mets series, they've won eleven
of twelve and they're just on fire.
Speaker 1: And I want to use.
Speaker 2: Brewers Mariners as our feature game because I think it
deserves the spotlight a little bit.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 2: Mariners take two or three from the Astros and suddenly
it's game on in the Al West.
Speaker 1: Brandon woodroof, George Kirby.
Speaker 2: If they were both fully healthy, in their full sort
of selves, that's a pretty nice pitching matchup break there.
So let's start with you, Brian Leonards, Brewers Mariners, any
comments on those two teams?
Speaker 1: And then how are you seeing this matchup tonight?
Speaker 3: I believe it all on Tokyo Brandon he came earlier
in the season, said something about the Dodgers' third baseman.
Almost the Dodgers' third basement gets classes and he's great.
He said something a couple weeks ago about a Segar
and say, Singer's terrible. And Segar since then has been
one of the best players in baseball. And he comes
out and says the Brewers and well, we all know that.
So it's nice to him to do that for anybody
who's a Brewers fan. You could send your cash donations
to Tokyo Brandon, Who do.
Speaker 1: You want me to curse next?
Speaker 3: What was that?
Speaker 4: Who do you want me to curse next? I'll take donations.
Speaker 3: I want you to curse me if I get on
hot streak.
Speaker 4: Okay, we need to.
Speaker 3: Start winning some of these parlays. Yeah, Woodroff against Kirby
two guys I spent a lot of the year injured,
but are very good as we know before the injuries.
Kirby's about a one twenty five favorite here. And I
hope my cat doesn't hear that because I named him
after Kirby Pucket. He's thinking I'm calling him or something.
But that wood Dreff's been great. One twenty five to
seven is what we're getting on the total in this one.
So far this season. I've been really surprised by Brandon
Woodriff because he was down in his rehabilitation starts and
did not look good, was not pitching well. The same
thing happened to Montos of the match, and I guess
we need to start looking at that a little bit differently. Obviously,
when they're down there in the minor leagues, they're working
on certain things, and we don't we have to ignore
their their play down in the minor leagues, because I
believe Kershaw was very similar. So yeah, let's take a
look at that. But woodrift two point six one, two
point two to one expected even better than what he
has done. Zero point six eight whip. Obviously that's not
going to continue. Last time you pitched was twenty twenty three,
it was zero point eight two. But six' eight is
kind of crazy as fastball velost. He's not there any longer.
He's thirty two years old. It's extensions about middle of
the road, fifty third percentile, So those are concerns. And
but right now he's been looking really good, So we'll
see how long that lasts. Either one of these guys
could have a blow up start because they are coming
back to Andrew Kirby's head had a couple when he
started out. He's got a four point five oh three
point seven seven expected another situation where he's been should
be better than what he actually is. He's got a
one point one five whip eighty nine percentile walk rate
five point four percent in the last four years. His
walk rates right now is a career high five point
four it was three point zero before that two point five,
four point one. He does not walk people, and that's
been his key. So we've got two guys here who
if they are on this line is too high. It's
the seven right now, but we don't know since his
sample size is so small. We look at that, we
look at the history. Milwaukee's offense has been doing really well. Seattle.
If you take a look at Stitch, Oh, where did
they go well? Anyway? Since the beginning of last thirty days,
Seattle leeds baseball in WRC plusant Watch twenty six. So
I got two pitchers. I like the odd round. We
got two hitters or two teams. I like the over on.
It's a pitcher's ballpark. But you have to think Milwaukee
would have a letdown. You just have to think that.
I slightly just Seattle and Kurby for this for me.
Speaker 4: So both of these teams are very well put together
and doing very well. Both lineups hitting very well, both
bullpens performing very well. And Woodruff has been great since
he came back. It's only ten plus innings, but he
still hasn't walked anyone yet. Kirby never walks anyone either.
So these pictures are very disciplined pictures. Kirby's been a
little inconsistent. He can give up four here, four there,
and then give up zero, zero and then two, so
don't really know what to expect from him. My first
inclination would be the under because both bullpens are performing
well and both starting pictures are red hot, but both
lineups are red hot too, so it's kind of a
stalemate for me on this one. I have the Brewers
performing a little bit better than the Mariners in everything,
but just barely better. So there's not an overall ranking
of a huge discrepancy here, so I'll probably leave this
one alone.
Speaker 2: I will definitely look for a spot to play the
Mariners in this series.
Speaker 1: I thought it might be here. I'm not saying that
I don't like them.
Speaker 2: I think if you play this, I feel like the
Mariners are the better side all things considered.
Speaker 1: So a couple of things.
Speaker 2: Brandon Woodroffe, the fact that he's come into his first
two big league starts of the year and he has
eighteen strikeouts and ten and a third is is shocking
to me.
Speaker 1: And not because Brandon Woodrif's not a great pitcher.
Speaker 2: He is and He's been a good pitcher for a
very long time, but this was like, I mean, he
was onny. It was months worth of rehab for him.
I mean he was started. He started his rehab pitching
in minor league games back in early April. So this
was the type of scenario where he didn't have a spring,
so it was an extended sort of stint at you know,
in the minors. And then I think he had a
setback of some sort where he didn't right Bryan.
Speaker 3: A couple of times because they thought it was along
and then they said, is he ever going to get
a chance to pitch again? So, yeah, it's been a
long road for him.
Speaker 2: So right, he went pretty much the entire month of
June where he was back on the shelf. He makes
one appearance at the end of June and Triple A
and then he comes out and he just eviscerates the
Marlins and the Nationals and back to back starts. This
is not that the Mariners, I you know, And now
I got to try to pinch myself a little bit
and say, like, you know, I've been talking about this
team for a couple of months.
Speaker 1: I've now taken positions on them in the AO West.
Speaker 2: You know, I've got some long term stuff going on
with the Mariners, and it's starting to come to fruition here.
They take two of three from the Astros this weekend,
something they absolutely had to have. So I'm very high
on this Mariners team, and so I need to make
sure that I'm not just like betting them or I'm
inclined to bet them because I have like some longer
term stuff that that sort of you know, would be
favorable if they win. But like again, I just come
back to, like, I really think this team's the best
team in the American League West.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win that division.
Speaker 2: Have been saying it since there were six or seven
games back, and now I truly believe that going to
be the case. The key here and the thing, the
reason I think you gotta bet the Mariners are past
this game. The Brewers used a lot of bullpen over
the weekend. Three like essentially one run wins over the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: I think one of them was two to nothing.
Speaker 2: And all of them had high leverage arms in those outings.
Brandon Wood Drift, you know, four innings in his first start,
six innings in his last one. If if the Mariners
are putting together some good at bats and he's out
after five innings or so, you're gonna either have some
very tired leverage arms, or you're gonna have some maybe
guys that the Brewers don't necessarily want in a leverage spot.
I don't think you can do that against the Mariners.
I think they're just playing too good right now. They
they managed to win the close games against the Astros
this weekend, a little bit of a you know, kind
of kind of rolled out of bed and tried to
play yesterday. I feel like ended up getting blown out.
Speaker 1: So I like the Mariners here.
Speaker 2: Not sure if it'll make my card, but I definitely
wanted to give that game the sort of spotlight as
the feature aim today because that's gonna be a great
matchup two teams that are playing as good as anyone
right now. As Brian Leonard said, Mariners WRC plus they're
leading since when Brian last days, last thirty days, last
thirty days. Yeah, that is a you know, you want
to talk about current form and liking a team current
form WRC plus over the last thirty days is probably
the best sort of you know, metric to be able
to measure like current offensive form, and so the Mariners
have been that.
Speaker 1: So I like the Mariners. There.
Speaker 2: Let's go to the chat. We're getting in the in
the groove for the week here back doing you know,
I hate having the week off of shows. Have to do,
uh have to like get back into the mix here,
and I should have been I should have been starring
some chat questions. But I'm gonna grab this one. Let's
go to Steve Duke. He says, Miami favored because of Perez.
I don't know what we're the last half of his
message went, but that's okay. That's all we need to
get going on this one, Brian Leonard, Miami is favored.
It is because of Perez, but it also might because
Randy Vasquez is probably not a big league pitcher, even
though he continues to moonlight as one. If you will, guys,
frustrated the hell out of me this year, So help
me figure this one out, Padres Marlins Perez Vasquez.
Speaker 3: I promised not to be as long winded on this one.
I literally just rolled out of betting to see the
red in my eyes right now. Six A. I'm out
here in Vegas. I don't know how Tokyo, Brandon does
his late night stuff. But yeah, that's exactly why they're favored.
I mean he Perez has been terrific as of light.
He's going up against one of the worst. I hate
say anybody, you know, put anybody down. I'm not Brandon,
but but he's one of the lesser pitchers of Major
League Baseball. Perez about a one thirty favorite right now,
total eight and a half. I tried to play against
San Diego one of the games over the weekend, I believe,
and didn't have a lot of success in that regard.
But they're going up against this Miami team right now,
and you know, we've liked this Miami offense all year long.
I'm gonna start and come around Basquez. Uh yeah, he's
got three point eight o e RA. This this, this
is why we talk about three point eight.
Speaker 2: O e RA.
Speaker 3: That's pretty good. But he's expected the IRA is two
full runs higher. Five point eight zero last year is expected.
It was five point nine four the year prior, five
point three seven. He's gotten no red on his debt
cast page a Baseball Savannah on the MLB website. Uh so,
he's not very good at anything. He's WF rate the
first percent hele strike out right the first percentile. Yeah,
I'm not looking to back Randy Vasquez. Now, Uri Perez
on the season, he's three point one eight e RA
A two point three eight expected even better, he's been
terrific zero point nine WHIP coming back from injury. The
one problem is his ground ball rates only in the
eighth percentile, so he does hit fly balls. And I've
gotten beaten the last week or so on teams that
are hitting fly balls because they hit home runs and
they'll end up with four hits and they're all Solio
home runs and I lose the game four to three.
It's just one of those situations. But that's baseball. That's
what happens. But if you take it look at Perez
ninety eighth percentile expected batting average, ninety six percentile expected DRA,
ninety fifth percentile fastball velocity, clear advantage for Miami in
that regard. Now, when we take a look at the
two teams, San Diego and Miami on the worst plus
plus the last thirty days, San Diego has been nineteenth.
They're at ninety six, while Miami is eleventh and one hundred
and four. So You've got by far the better pitcher.
You've got the better offense, at least right now, at
least the last month. The only problem is San Diego's
bullpen is the best at least coming out of the season.
And I feel the best are one of the best
in baseball and they're French. They haven't used anybody since Friday,
so that should be an advantage for San Diego. So
if I'm looking to play this, I would play Miami
in the first five. Let's see what kind of line
we get there. Yeah, minus one fifty minus one fifty
five's out there. That would be the way that I
would look at this. So far, I haven't made any decisions,
but Miami first half minus one fifty is not a bad.
Speaker 4: One, so my rankings. By the way, guys, please go
back to the replay and click the like and leave
us a comment. It shows way to talk to you
like our show, and we would really appreciate that. I
have a five percent play out today. I'm sure Adam
and Brian are going to put something out as well.
And you can download all of my at your projections
at my page at wagertalk dot com, So go do
that for free. So Randy Vasquez some people in the
comments saying he's not so bad, he is so bad.
He's actually he's actually been very lucky this season not
to be tagged even worse than he has been. I
have his look ahead or his expected numbers. He's ranked
one of the worst pictures in MLB as a regular starter.
He's not sends a Tella level quite yet, but he's
getting there pretty quickly. And I have the bullpens ranked
fairly even in current form. I agree with Brian that
San Diego's is better talent wise current form, though Miami's
bullpens performing quite well and their lineup is performing quite
well too. This is one of those where you have
to cover the logo and cover the team names and
just look at the numbers and think which team is better.
One thing about Randy Vasquez, he's walking more guys than
he's striking out. That's that's an alarming red flag. So
I if you don't trust Miami, take their team total
over maybe, or but San Diego's bullpen's really good, maybe
take their first five team total over. Or take them
to win the game. You know, get some plus money
and take them to win the game. Unfortunately they're favored,
so you can't get plus money for him. Maybe take
their team total in the first five that might be
the way I'd go.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Marlins here.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna you guys have said all that needs
to be said about Basquez. It's actually been it's actually
been incredible to watch that it's gone on this long,
Like like the expected numbers that that Brian pointed out
being two runs off, I mean that that's been the
craziest thing with Dascus is usually by this point in
the year that sorted itself out, and it hasn't.
Speaker 1: So it's like, you know, it's it's a it's almost like.
Speaker 2: Hard to wrap your head around how he hasn't been
really blown up yet because that that market correction should
have happened a long time ago.
Speaker 1: The fact that he made it through the whole first
half is hard to fathom.
Speaker 2: But in this matchup, not only are you getting Vasquez like, yeah,
there's probably a blow up on the horizon. Now, if
you're like countering that, you can say, well, Trigg, you've
been coming on the show for two months and saying
he's ready, he's due to get blown up. He still
hasn't r and er four and yeah, maybe he houdini's
his way out of five innings and gives up one
or two runs again. But you have Perez on the
Miami side now, and he is he is pretty much
back at full strength as far as you know, I
can tell U. I talked about Pez during his rehab,
uh knowing a couple of people close to that organization,
and and they were thrilled with the you know, time effort,
just just everything about his rehab was very positive. And
so as soon as he sort of like got his
command back, which came I think maybe three or four
war starts in there was there was the one start
where he was just like lights out and you're like, okay,
like maybe he's back now. I think based on the
full body of work, you can confidently say that Uri
Perez is back.
Speaker 1: It doesn't look like the injury is affecting him.
Speaker 2: And you look at the you know, the underlying metrics,
they're all really really good. Brian references Baseball sabat in
stat cast a lot of red on that page.
Speaker 1: You know, there's really not much he's not doing well
at this point.
Speaker 2: So I do like the Marlins quite a bit here
I thought the price was I feel like the books
maybe have you know, they're they're they're they're beating you
to this spot a little bit with this price at
minus one thirty, But I don't even that initially deterred
me here, feeling like, Okay, I gotta have to lay
a dollar thirty to back the Marlins against a Padres
team that's clearly a better team. But I think I'm
gonna end up playing this today, So I Marlins. I
don't know if I'll throw it in the parlay here.
Let's see how the show is gonna go. But this
is this may be a client play for me. I'm
not gonna say that one way or the other, but
definitely one of the ways I am looking on today's slate.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I just want to point out
talk about the San Diego bullpen the Miami bullpen. Enriquez
and Bender both the pitched to it the last three days,
although they did have yesterday off, so I'd like the
first half played better than the full game.
Speaker 2: All right, Let's uh, let's continue on. Someone said Brewers
didn't use any leverage pictures yesterday. That was going back
to the first game we talked about. I think what
I was more or less pointing to was their their
collective bullpen usage over the past three days has been
almost everyone is pitched. I'm not saying they won't pitch
again tonight for that game, but when you use as
much pen as they've used the last three days, like,
I think there's still some carry over there, So I
want to clarify that. In regards to the first game
we talked about Brewers Mariners, where if you're if you
are looking for that game, we opened the show with
that game, go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: The four high leverage guys, Mirrors, Konig, Eibe, and McGill
have all pitched to the last three days.
Speaker 1: The last it's major.
Speaker 3: I mean they they also had a Anderson and Hall
pitched double digits yesterday. But yeah, when you when you've
got your best relievers, Ashby's going to be available. He
maybe end up being the closer up there in that situation,
and that's something they've liked in the past. Other other
than that rookie that was up earlier this year, Ashleby
is a guy that's got terrific stuff. He could be
a closer, So yeah, that's something to keep in mind
at the end of that game.
Speaker 2: All right, let's head to a different game. Got to
talk about this one. It's the Tigers, everyone's favorite team,
at least in this chat.
Speaker 1: A little bit, a little bit sluggish out of a break.
Speaker 2: For the Tigers and into the break, finally finally got
off the mat last night with a two to one
win on Sunday Night Baseball, and and their reward for
them is a quick turnaround hitting the road to take
on Paul Skien. So that's a tough scheduling spot there
for the Tigers. Sunday Night Baseball. Had to grind out
a two to one win on the road, that wasn't easy,
and now they have to turn around and face arguably
the best pitcher in baseball, certainly one of them, Brian Leonard.
So we've got Tigers Sunday Night Baseball on the road,
Monday game on the road up against the Cy young
candidate and skiings Jack Flaherty on the mound for the Tigers.
Speaker 1: How do you see this one?
Speaker 3: Just a general something generally I want to point out
is you talked about the Tigers and their slump as
of lade. They had a huge lead in that division, earlier.
It's still up by eleven over the Guardians, eleven and
a half, twelve with the Royals and the Twins. But
when you and then we talked about this earlier with
the Dodgers, when you have a big lead, specially team
like the Tigers who are not recently, not known to
be dominating in that division, and spend the Guardians and
the Twins and the Royals for as long as I
can remember, Uh, they weren't used to being that good.
And you start and when you've come out and nobody
congratulating you, you know, everybody we were even talking about
the Tigers on this show and some others, is this
the best team in baseball? And a whole bit well,
you're going to lose a little bit of.
Speaker 1: Want.
Speaker 3: You're very you're not as hungry as you were before.
And that's what's running into the Tigers.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: We saw that with the Yankees a little bit earlier.
I had a big lead. It's going back to Paris
in the East and the nationally all year long. To
just keep that in mind, you know, the Dodgers were
in that similar situation there like a week ago. They're
up nine games. Now they're only up three point five.
It changes and keep that in mind. But as for
this game, excuse me, we're taking a look at Flaherty,
who is on the road against Skens but a one
twenty three Pittsburgh and seven on the total. I was
looking at this overnight and I thought the line was
very cheap on schemes. I don't I give it cursory
looks at night and if there's something.
Speaker 1: That TV used to do, we lose Brian there.
Speaker 4: It looks like he froze.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'll give I'll we'll ahead. Yeah.
Speaker 4: This is why I make this downloadable PDF file and
you guys can all download it for free. But what
I've done is I've taken all the starting pictures and
I project their hits allowed, k's allowed, how many outs
they'll go, et cetera. And I also have their ops
and e ra a against versus the team they're facing today.
So you can download all that for free, and I
use this for my capping. So looking at that, Skeens Skeens.
Skeens has great numbers against the Tigers. He's only faced
them a couple times, limited numbers, but one twenty five
batting average against in a three seventy five OPS against
is amazing. Flarity has been lit up a little bit
by these Pirates batters a three zero four batting average
against in a nine to fifty seven OPS and I've
said in previous videos that seven point fifty is kind
of my Mendoza Liigne for ops. So he's way over that.
And then we have Clarity on the road. Let's see
how Flarity does on the road. Yeah, I mean he's
got a six plus RA on the road, so I
can't can't back Detroit. So so my numbers are not
you know, everything. It's not the definition of everything here,
but it's enough to make me say I'm not betting
the Tigers for sure. Now whether I bet the Pirates
or not is a different story. I looked to Detroit's
team total first five under one and a half seems
a little tantalizing, but unfortunately Skeens has allowed two runs here,
two runs there. In his last start he allowed four runs,
So one and a half little little dicey for me
might might play on Pittsburgh or some kind of Detroit
team total under perhaps, but I haven't got there yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Interesting, So Sean sewn Michael says Skeens pitch count.
Speaker 1: I there's some.
Speaker 2: Merit I think to that just in general right now, Like,
and he actually elaborated here. I want to pull this
up because I think this is important.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he probably go ahead. No, I was gonna say,
he's probably not.
Speaker 4: Sorry, I didn't want to cut you off. Yeah, he's
been under eighty in his last two starts and eighty
eight before that, so he's generally seventy seventy eight or so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's gonna be the case for the rest
of the season.
Speaker 2: The Pirates are thirty nine and sixty one entering play today.
They have to start, you know, kind of you know,
it's just you know, if Skeens is feeling great one
day and he's got six scoreless going, are they maybe
gonna give him a little bit more leash and let
him throw a hundred? Yeah, probably, But like you gotta start.
You know, Listen, the Pirates are gonna protect that investment.
They don't like spending money. They're they're more concerned with,
you know, profit margins than winning baseball games, which is
why Pirates fans are so upset.
Speaker 1: But yeah, like you have to like look at that.
Speaker 2: Yes, you're getting Schemes as the starter here, But if
you're only gonna get him for eighty five ninety pitches,
should you be laying minus one twenty five? Like I
actually put this game next to the Marlins game because
I think it's like a similar dichotomy where you have
the clear better team on the road Padres and Tigers,
the clear better pitcher is on the quote unquote lesser
team Marlins Pirates, and you're you're being asked to lay
a price with a lesser team. And for me, the
Marlins was was the much more favorable of the two
spots because I actually happened to think the Marlins are
pretty good and they're starting to win games. Now they're
six games under five hundred Tokyo Brandon, who would have
had that a few months ago? Right, Like, the Marlins
have played their way back into serious respectability, and I
think they could actually have success against the team like
the Padres, Whereas like thinking that the Pirates should have
success against a team like Detroit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, could they get one in this series?
Speaker 2: Maybe, But also you just woke up Detroit last night,
right like the Sleeping Beast if you will, that went
into the All Star break three straight losses, came out
of the All Star break like totally asleep, couldn't score a.
Speaker 1: Run, now woke up last night.
Speaker 2: I also think the books are pricing it in, where
like they know, you know that the Tigers played on
Sunday night baseball, so all that's priced in. So even
though I Jerry Davis says the spot here for the Pirates, yeah,
I think it's a decent spot, but this is the
instance where I really feel like they're they're over pricing
the fact that Skeens is on the mound and the
fact that like, okay, the Tigers played on Sunday night baseball.
I could have got down with the pirateier like minus
one oh five, but man, now that you're starting to
get to minus one twenty five, minus one thirty, that's
where I'm just like, I don't know if I can
get down with that.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, and not.
Speaker 4: To cut you off, but I'm doing the Brian raise
your finger thing. But last start against the Tigers, Skens
gave up only three hits and six innings. They were
unlucky hits because people were on base, but three hits
and six innings, man, that's that's pretty dumb. That's pretty
much domination.
Speaker 2: I remember thing, yeah, if I remember correctly that that
Skeen's last start against the Tigers was like part of
a double header. I mean, I'm pretty sure he started
game two, so that I don't know if that really
matters per se, but like you know, you had the Tigers,
who I believe one game one of the double header,
and then had Schimes in the second game, So anyway,
go ahead.
Speaker 4: Sorry, he actually has better numbers on the road than
he does at home, but I don't really I mean,
it's the difference between an era of one and the
era of two, so it's not really like we're parsing things,
and you know, it's the sample size is not that huge.
So it's true that he that he will be on
a limited pitch count. And one thing to keep in
mind if you're gonna think about betting and under in
this game is both bullpens are performing horribly right now.
I have him both twenty five or worse out of
thirty teams in current form. So something to keep in mind.
Speaker 2: City by city, by the bass can't bet on favorite
with a weak lineup. That that's probably something that belonged
in this handicap. You know, we talk about WRC plus
being a good indicator of how a team is performing offensively,
with the Mariners have had the highest WRC plus over
the last thirty days. The Pirates I believe have the
lowest WRC plus of any team in the league by
like a wide margin this year. This is a horrific
lineup one through nine. And they made they made like
a trade the other day with the Royals. I believe
it was like, I forget, I think maybe Fraser. They
sent someone to the Royals to get Vaney. Yeah, so
they send Adam Frasier, who's actually like a guy that
probably is is impacts that team positive positively when he's
on the field, he's scrappy guy, just slaps the ball
all over the place.
Speaker 1: They traded him for Camdevany.
Speaker 2: Now that, in my opinion, is a pretty good trade
for the Pirates because Cam Devaney's got some upside as
a few you know going forward. The problem is they
put Cam Devaney at Triple A and called up some
like someone that's been a not a good player at
Triple A. So I'm not really quite sure what the
mindset there was by the Pirates, but they they ultimately
made their team worse in the short term. They should
have just called they should have just put Devaney on
the big league team. Why they sent him to Triple
A is beyond me, but they actually made their lineup
worse in the short term.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I wouldn't have anything.
Speaker 4: They're not trying to win.
Speaker 2: I won't have anything in that one. But again, hard
to hard to go against. It is hard to go
against Skens. There maybe maybe one that there's just not
you know, not tough one to get involved with.
Speaker 4: Brian that he's trying to get back in. So as
soon as he's back in, we'll have him here, guys, well.
Speaker 2: We will, we will forge ahead. Steve, Steve Duke. This
is here, it is, this is this is what we're
talking about.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: The Pirates go on a prolonged winning streak, uh, you know,
thanks to our word magic. Yeah, I mean they could
not have looked worse against the White Sox all weekend.
Speaker 1: They were horrific in that uh, in that series.
Speaker 2: So it only makes sense that that would that that
would be the case in BBL says, you know, hope
the Tiger's money line increases.
Speaker 1: That's I think another good talking point.
Speaker 2: For this, uh match up here, Tokyo Brandon, At what
point if they give I mean, if they're gonna give
you like plus one fifteen plus one twenty on the times, like,
don't you just have to start thinking about taking that
based on the fact that, like they're such a superior team,
Like that's you know, a talking point as well.
Speaker 4: They're a superior team. But we've discussed this in previous
shows that they're kind of one of those small ball
teams that's coached really well and they produce runs. They
like eke out runs and two to nothing wins. That's
the kind of team they are. So Yeah, as someone
in the chat said, Tigers plus one and a half,
I wouldn't argue with that because this is probably gonna
be like a one to nothing Like Skiings games are
always like one to nothing or two to one, and
they never produce runs for him. I don't know if
that's a thing, to be honest, I don't know if
batters are just like, oh, we got skins on them out,
we don't have to hit today, and they don't hit.
I don't think that's the case, but it's more than
a coincidence that they never never score when he's pitching.
Speaker 1: All right, Kevin Piqutt asked for I asked for Guardians Orioles.
Speaker 2: But I want to see if we can get Brian
back on before we talk Guardians. That is, we'd be
doing all of ourselves a disservice if we talk Guardians
without Brian Leonards.
Speaker 1: So yeah, well we'll do this one first.
Speaker 4: Let's uh, oh he lost his WiFi so he's not
coming back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's uh, you know, for whatever, but he gave us.
Speaker 2: I think Vegas has like I don't know if it's
the main provider there, but I know people out in
Las Vegas like have Internet issues.
Speaker 1: Like more than more than most like we have.
Speaker 2: So we have like a good amount of our company
that lives out there, and and they're always having internet
issues in Vegas. So I don't know what that's about.
But as well, so Spectral is okay. Here in central
New York, I never really have internet issues. So shout
out to Spectrum Cable right there, because they keep me
going good here in Central New York.
Speaker 1: And we're gonna go let's go to New York here.
Speaker 2: Actually, these are Tokyo Brandon, the two where I live
the closest major League Baseball team technically to where I
live is the Toronto Blue Jays. A lot of people
don't realize that, but for me, like Roger Center is
about four hours away, Phillies Ballparks like four and a half,
and then the two the two Yankees teams are four
and a half roughly, and.
Speaker 1: Then it takes door to door. I can get to
Cleveland five hours.
Speaker 2: So I'm pretty much like four or five hours away
from many MLB teams, and the closest one would be
going up through Buffalo going to Toronto. The Blue Jays
would be the closest team to where I live. And
they have a huge series here with the Yankees tonight.
So we have a bunch of chat chat requests for
this game, and yeah, this is a this is a
massive series.
Speaker 1: I got asked. I did a show spot.
Speaker 2: For MGM yesterday and one of the things they kind
of put me on the spot in the Al East
and said, who are you taking al least? Do you
think the Yankees come back and win this division? And
I said no, I said, I'm all in on the
Blue Jays. I was on the Blue Jays before they
were playing well, and I'm going to see this out now.
As far as this matchup's concerned, I don't know if
I feel that way, but long term, I'm on the
Blue Jays, very big series, very interesting matchup the Yankees.
Speaker 1: J's what do you see in here?
Speaker 4: So Goussman is a guy who was an absolute study.
By the way, guys, I'm going to promo again, I
have a five percent play up, so go grab that.
Download my picture sheets for free on my site at
wager Talk. And Adam's definitely going to have something out
as well.
Speaker 2: I just I put a play up. I just haven't
put the brick out there yet, but yeah, I just
I locked in a four percenter already.
Speaker 4: So show us a little love there and now we'll
get to my breakdown here. So Goussman used to be
an absolute stud. You know, he was like a Skeens
or a scuball back in his day. But he's not
that anymore. But he is very solid on my rankings.
I have him ranked right in the medium category around
fifteen out of thirty on a curve, where I have
Rodin ranked eleven on a curve. So I got Rodin
ranked a little higher. Bullpens Toronto's is performing a little better,
and both lineups are top ten, So what do you
do well, I'm not going to play a side and
I'm not going to play a total. I looked at
the pitcher versus hitters, and two guys just jumped way
off the page. Take a look at what Aaron Judge
has done against Goussman. Unbelievable stuff. Aaron Judge, where is
he sixteen or forty three with six home runs in
forty three at bats, a three seventy two ERA and
a thirteen seventy oh ps. So I'm going to look
for Aaron Judge's hits runs RBIs. Today Toronto's bullpen is
performing really well, which kind of scares me. But over
one and a half hits runs RBIs for Aaron Judge,
I think would be a good play. And another one
if you look at Carlos Rodon. He's pitching really well,
but this is a hitter's part. Guys in Toronto and Guerrero.
He's nine for fifteen with one home run against Carlos Rodon.
He's got a six hundred average and a sixteen sixty
seven OPS. That is just sick, ridiculous stuff. So I'm
not gonna take a side or a total. I'm gonna
focus on those hitters and maybe take a Hits Runs RBI.
And I've said on shows past why I like hits
Runs RBIs better than total bases with total bases. Although
the show total bases is great, I don't bet it
because because if you walk, you lose one of your
at bouts and you only get maybe four in a game.
So that's why I like hits Runs RBIs on.
Speaker 2: This is the strongest total opinion I have for the
day now. I don't really bet totals very often. It's
just not a it's not a market I've had long
term success, and so I pretty much save the totals
for you know, I have opinions on them, I just
rarely bet them as client plays. Don't think I've actually
given one out as a client play in like a
couple of years. Maybe last year I think I did
one or two. So take that with a grain of salt.
That being said, as far as where my numbers are
and just the way I handicap this, this has to
be an over.
Speaker 1: I feel like, and if you're gonna get an.
Speaker 2: Eight here now, this might be eight and a half
even someplaces now, but if you can get a juiced
eight here and the juice is like minus one twenty
or less, I really think over makes a lot of sense.
So first thing you kind of talked about it, Gossman's
having a really nice season, and I think there's something
to be said for like these veteran guys when they're
on a good team and then things start to go well.
I feel like that's when you see some of like
these like older veteran guys really like sort of you know,
kind of find the fountain of youth to an extent
where they're.
Speaker 1: Just like they look like they did when they were
in their prime.
Speaker 2: And that's sort of what I'm getting with Gossman a
little bit sort of watching and pitch this year. His
his off speed stuff has been fantastic. He's getting you know,
he's getting swing and miss and he's just he looks
really good. But that being said, the Yankees have seen
so much Gossman over the years. You you already pointed
out Judge being a potential play that that's true of
like a lot of this Yankees lineup, a lot of
them have good numbers against Gossman, and they have huge
sample sizes against him. So I don't think he's gonna
fool anyone on this Yankees team. And the Yankees certainly
woke up over the weekend like that that comeback win
to win on Saturday and then win yesterday makes me
sort of hesitant to play against the Yankees going forward
because as a New Yorker, as someone that's that's had
to live his entire life with delusional Yankees fans who
always think they're the World Series champs. I've come to
my like if you go to my group chat with
all my Siana Bus Yankee fans, Yeah, yeah, but like
I know, like it the ebbs and flows of this team,
like once once they get the game like they had Saturday,
where they come back and they win twelve nine, and
like they really snowballs for this team. And so I
have no interest in like going against the Yankees right
now because I'm worried that this is like one of
those runs where they rattle off five strict six straight wins.
And of course, Tokyo, Brandon, you got to go back
to the last time these two teams played a couple
of weeks ago, the Blue Jays slapped the Yankees around.
Speaker 1: I think they swept that series. So the Yankees are
gonna be very are they.
Speaker 2: They either took three or four or swept them, So
the Yankees are going to be very hungry here. I
think to avenge that that sort of poor play the
last time these two teams have played.
Speaker 1: But the reason I like the over the Yankees.
Speaker 2: Used a lot of bullpen in the last two days
to close out those two wins against the Braves and Rodon.
For as good as Rodona has been, he doesn't have
you know, he's not like blowing people away with the
fastball at this point. No, it's like ninety three ninety four.
He spots it well, everything else is awesome. I mean,
he is an All Star, and this this line is
priced as if you have basically have two all star starters.
But as you said, this Blue Jays lineup is great
one through nine. They're having great at bats, and I
think that they can sort of do enough against Radon
where even if they don't blow or don't up, they're
gonna battle and he's gonna be out after five six innings.
Maybe you get into that Yankees bullpen. My gut tells
me the Jays have some runs in them in this game.
But they're gonna have a hard time out scoring the Yankees,
So give me the over eight in this one. Yeah,
I mean, we'll do the parlay at the end, but
that's probably the one I like.
Speaker 1: You know, I like that quite a bit.
Speaker 4: Sure, all right?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean, since, well, let's go to that game.
I didn't really Yeah, Brian's not gonna be back, so
let's go to Kevin Picquette. Here in the chat, he says,
good morning, guys, Oriels Cleveland. Can we break this down?
Cleveland minus one thirty five seems a bit high. I
agree with that because I don't think the Guardians are
a very good team. But it's your your boy to
almost Ugano on the mount for the Orioles.
Speaker 1: I don't really want him either. So what are you
gonna do with this one?
Speaker 4: Tokyo brand, Yeah, this one, this one's got me a
little perplexed taking a look at how they match up.
I have the the the let's see, I got my
pictures mixed up here. Yeah, my guy Sagano, he's a
little old. I was really surprised he went over to
the US this late in his career because he's on
the downside. He was a stud about four years ago.
He's like Gusman basically he was a stud like four
years ago. But anyway, I have the Guardians soon to
be Indians again if if the President has his way.
But anyway, did you hear that story?
Speaker 1: I did, Yeah, that was.
Speaker 4: We'll see what happens. So anyways, no politics on the show.
So I've had the Guardians ranked higher and everything I
got Bibby ranked higher than Sugano. Sugano's era expected numbers
are really bad and I don't know why because I'm
looking at his stats. He doesn't strike out a lot
of guys, but his walks to strike out ratio is
not horrible. It's not in the good range, but it's
not horrible. I haven't ranked twenty eight out of thirty
and that's mainly focusing on expected numbers and expected whobas
and expected eras and things like that. And Baltimore's bullpen
has been bad and they're not hitting very well. So
I have the Guardians ranked a lot higher in this one.
So that would be the only way I would go.
It would be the Guardians. I haven't done it yet.
Bibby's not walking anyone, so yeah, I mean Guardians are
bust for me, but I haven't done it yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I commented on the name change and someone on Twitter
was like, coming at like I was trying to make
it a political thing. I was like, listen, the Guardians
is just a dumb name. I don't care what way
you lean like. I don't care if they don't if
they don't go back to the the the Indians is
the team name. I don't see any problem with it.
We have other teams that are still Indians. It's fine,
but like, yeah, you had so much opportunity to do
something cool and you you came up with the Guardians
in a g that has angels wings on it as
your logo, like it was an all time fit. In
my opinion, I I still would have gone. I still
would have gone with the Spiders. I I thought the Spiders.
But anyway, that's that's I don't like.
Speaker 4: But I think the dumbest name in all of sports
is the Pelicans. That's just such a stupid name. Sorry
if that's dumb. And anyway, back to Redskins because I'm
a traditionalist, so I'd like to see both of them
go back.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and while we're at it, maybe we can get
rid of the ghost Runner, because that that's to me
would be that if I could.
Speaker 1: Change one think that I hate the ghost Runner.
Speaker 2: It is just excuse things, you know, I've I've been
a Guardian's hater on this show for a couple of
weeks now.
Speaker 1: And I don't think they're a.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're I don't want to say I
don't want to say they're not a good team because
like that really becomes very subjective. I don't think they're
even close to the team they were last year. And
I still think the market prices them as you know
they're they they tend to be priced more like last
year's Guardians than than what they should be priced as
a forty eight and fifty team that doesn't have a
great lineup, that that that has some question marks all
around the team. That's why, like, you know, I get
I get people in the chat they're like, why don't
you like the Tigers? Why don't you like the Guardians.
I don't care about any of these teams. I just
like betting.
Speaker 1: I'm just trying trying to find edges to win.
Speaker 2: And the reason I've been so anti Guardians this year
is because of where they've been priced in the market,
and that's why I was anti Tigers for a while,
because I just didn't agree with where they were priced
in the market. I like the guardians in this spot.
I think a lot of what you said has merried
Tokyo Brandon.
Speaker 1: I don't like Sugano at all.
Speaker 2: I was also I don't follow NPB like you do,
but I was also shocked. It reminded me of when
Kan John Yang came over from Korea late in his career.
It almost was like it's almost like he did everything
that he could do in Japan and sort of like
the final sort of way to test himself was can
I go to America for a year and see how
it goes?
Speaker 1: Right, It's like completes his career.
Speaker 2: Now, to Sugano's credit, he's actually been a lot better
than I thought he was going to be to this point.
He's been much better than I thought he was going
to be to this point. That being said, I don't
think he is a quality MLB starter, and I'm going
to continue to try to find spots to fade him
if they're going to price him as such. The orioles
Ar team that's always played worse on the road they
always hit worse on the road. They're hitting numbers are
worse on the road this year as well. If this
was a lefty for the Guardians, I'd be making this
a play because it's a right handed pitcher and the
Orioles do have success against right handed pitching. It'll stay
a lean. But yeah, I'm with you. I kind of
it would be Guardians or pass for me here. I
just couldn't get down with that minus one thirty price
tag just a little too.
Speaker 4: Another thing that kind of scares me, Sorry to cut
you off. Another thing that kind of scares me is
the fact that the Guardians have a losing record at home.
That kind of bothers me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know what to think of that.
Speaker 2: I feel like I feel like they'll probably so one
thing about you know, especially if they're playing meaningful games
over the next few months and they could start to
get an atmosphere in there.
Speaker 1: I do know.
Speaker 2: Brian Powers told me like, I don't think they I don't.
I think they've been struggling attendance wise. Don't quote me
on that, but I feel like they've struggled in tendance wise,
and I don't I like that's you know. I mean
that could be have something to do with it, But
I don't know if I'm like willing to be like, okay,
like they just aren't gonna win home game because the
last couple of years, I know they've been solid at
home that you know, especially when like the fan base
has been engaged. But I just don't know if like
Cleveland fans are a little out on this team this year.
I don't was a disappointing end of the season last year,
even though they had a really good year, they probably
felt like, you know, it was a little bit of
a heartbreaking end of the season. Yeah, Like, it's a
lot of interesting stuff going on there. I just don't
know how you lay minus won thirty minus one thirty
five with the guard But that's just me.
Speaker 4: But I would my number love him, My numbers love them,
but I can't do it.
Speaker 2: My numbers also suggest that I take the Guardians today, and.
Speaker 1: I will not be doing it either.
Speaker 4: I won't either because interesting. Another thing is sorry to
beat a dead horse on this game. But Sugano can
come out and have a gem too. He's one of
those guys who is just ass mustard and then suddenly
he has a good game.
Speaker 1: It's mustard. I never got that.
Speaker 4: I got that from Scott Farrell on the Sports Green.
But anyway he can come out and have a good game,
you never know. He's one of those guys that could
come out and just deal all of a sudden.
Speaker 2: So yeah, he has and he has done that this
year at times, which is which makes it a little
bit more difficult.
Speaker 1: I think we'll go.
Speaker 2: I was I want to go to this one because
we have more. There's like three people that were just man.
So let let's go to Giants Braves because this one
really interests me. And this is one where, like I
saw this pitching matchup, and I do not think Bryce
Elder is a big league pitcher.
Speaker 1: I just don't like he has been. He he had
he he had an unreal.
Speaker 2: First half that that earned him an All Star nomination,
and I've watched his whole career.
Speaker 1: Tokyo Brandon, he's a he's a triple A starter.
Speaker 2: I don't think he's like a big league starting pitcher,
but he's favored here, and I don't know if I
disagree with the break.
Speaker 1: With the Braves being favorite here.
Speaker 2: Now. To Elder's credit, he was very good last time
out against the A's, but again, the A's kind of
a triple A lineup at times this year as well.
So what do you make of this one? Because this
is as intriguing of a matchup as there is to
me today. Elder Bird Song, Giants Braves two teams that
sort of desperately need a good showing this series.
Speaker 1: So how are you seeing this one?
Speaker 4: So we have in this one we have two horrible
starting pitchers. I don't like Bird's Song, I don't like Elder.
I have both of them ranked twenty one or worse
on a curve of thirty. Neither bullpen is playing well
at all, although you know San Francisco's got some talent
in their bullpen, but I don't think they're playing very well.
Atlanta's is definitely not playing very well. Did you see
what was that guy's name? Iglesis the other day man
he melted and San Francisco's not his, but Atlanta is hitting.
I have Atlanta ranked six in current form out of thirty,
and I got San Francisco ranked twenty seven, So if anything,
I would take maybe a Braves over team total over.
Here's another thing is I haven't mentioned on the show
yet but my chronic walker list. Hayden bird Song is
on that chronic walker list. How bad is he regarding
walks in walks per nine? In the last for the
full season, he's close to five walks per nine and
in the last thirty days he's over seven walks per nine.
Atlanta's not exactly a team. Let me see, hang on, oh,
I got the athletics here Atlanta. Atlanta walks three point
seven per game, not per nine per game. So I
think we're gonna see some walks here. So if you
can get bird Song for over two and a half
is for plus money or over one and a half
for minus one fifty or so, I think that would
be a good play as well.
Speaker 2: Totals Trigg today here on Monday, I'm gonna go another total.
Speaker 1: Actually this is I think.
Speaker 2: Listen, I do not, like I said, I really don't
play totals often, so take it with a grain of salt.
That being said, I think the over in this game
and the over in that Yankees Jays game, I would
be shocked if it's worse than a split. I see
runs in both of these games, and I'll be really
surprised if I get it so wrong. That both of
those games stay under, So do what you will with that.
I really think that that Yanks Jay's game is going over,
and I think this game Giants Braves is gonna go over.
You kind of you know, said it like bird Song
I think has more upside out of the two. He
still gets some swing and miss and and he's got
you know, he's young enough where he can he can
harness some of this uh you know, he's he's still
young enough. I think twenty three years old kind of
kind of got rushed, you know, they got him up
to the big league level pretty quickly, so like he's
definitely got the peripherals to be like, Okay, bird Song
might might actually be a pretty good big league pitcher
at some point, but right now, I mean he's just
you know, you're, like you said, doesn't have great command.
A lot of walks, he's giving up a ton of
hard hit. He doesn't give up many he's not keeping
the ball on the ground at all, so he's he's
prone to giving up the long ball. And this Braves
lineup is still pretty good. Like I've said this probably
on a couple of different occasions this year. If the
Braves are going to blow things up, or if they
decide to blow things up, you got to keep the players.
Get rid of this entire get right, go blow up
the front office, get rid of the coaching staff. I
know they can't just fire Snicker. He's like been there
for his entire life. They're gonna have to let him
sort of go as he wants to go. But like that,
that's the problem with the Braves. This like the way
that they've constructed this bullpen, which is they don't have
any leverage arms.
Speaker 1: The bullpen's actually pretty good.
Speaker 2: They just don't have anyone that you want out there
with the game on the line. But like the collection
of arms isn't that bad. But then to to somehow
still have Bryce Elders starting every fifth day at the
big league level is just crazy. He's he's literally bottom
one percent pitching run value. He's he's just not he's
just Chad Picard, Birdsarng's trash. Elders even worse. Like, yeah,
it seems like that's a surface handicap, but that's really
it's really the case, like these two starting pitchers should
not hold the opponent down. Even the Giants are starting
to hit a little bit, so I think that you're
getting I mean, what do we have here? Is this
a nine flat for a total? Are we looking at
nine flat in this one?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: You could even alter it to eight and a half.
Speaker 2: No, I don't think you need to. I don't even
think you need to do that. Like if you have
if you.
Speaker 5: Have nine, that's what I'm saying, if you can get
to if you That's why eight and a half of
nine is key, because if you're looking at it like, okay,
both these teams can get the forum at least rolling,
I'd be shocked at both these teams don't get to
four here.
Speaker 1: So this is another one where I very much like
the over Tokyo. Brandon.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go to you because I know you're dying
to promo something. But also you have Brian Leonard's parlay
leg and I have not checked the chat yet, So
I'm gonna let you give us out Brian's parlay Leg
and I think we all need to give one out
right now.
Speaker 1: I don't think we've locked anything yet.
Speaker 4: Okay, go ahead, what's the timestamp right now? What is it?
Fifty five twenty four, So at fifty five twenty four,
Brian's parlay leg is Miami first half money line minus
one fifty. That's Brian's leg.
Speaker 1: So that's a Marlins first five minus one fifty.
Speaker 4: Okay, and uh, let me type. I can't type and
talk at the same time. It can never be one
of those one of those drummers who sings because he can't.
Speaker 1: I can't do.
Speaker 4: Two things at the same time. But anyway, Yeah, let
me promote something ahead. Yeah, I'm laser focused. I have
a one track mind, so it must be the alcohol.
But five percent play for me. Adam has a playout
today as well. Uh, you guys, a lot of you
ask me, what what's your strikeout projection for Wheeler? What's
your outs projection for Beyo? It's all on my sheet.
If you go to my page at wager talk dot
com you can download it for free. I put all
my projections together and they're free. So yeah, that's what
I wanted to promo. If you leave a comment and
a like on the replay of this, we would appreciate it. It
goes a long way to show wager Talk that baseball
shows can be popular too. Should I give my parlay? Like?
Go ahead, yep, Okay, I'm going to take today I'm
going to take I like the A's today and I don't.
I can't figure out why they're underdogs, but they are,
and since we're going to do a three leg parlay,
I'm going to take them plus one and a half.
But I haven't looked up the odds yet, so I'm
gonna look it up right now.
Speaker 2: Why don't Why don't Why don't we talk about that
game first, because we haven't talked about it yet, and
I have opinions as well, so well, you'll have time
to look up the odds. Well, we'll lock it in
at the end of the show, but go ahead, A's.
We got A's Rangers because I'm with you. I was
intrigued by this one as well, and I didn't think
they should be underdogs here. So tell me why you
think the a should be favored in this game.
Speaker 4: Okay, let me punch it in first, or maybe you
can talk about it first while I all right, punch
in my numbers and look up the odds.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so for me, for me, it came down to
first starting pitching. You know, I Jack Lighter has been
a guy that I felt like at the big league
level has been very much overrated. His entire time at
the big league level, and I don't know if it's
the last name that kind of kind of continues to
give him like chance after chance. I do think he's
very good. I think he's got a lot of upside
and a lot of potential. But the Rangers just they
seem to call him up at like, you know, disadvantageous times.
So it's like, I don't know if they've done him
a disservice a little bit as to when they call
him up, but I feel like he could have really
benefited from like a season at Triple A, and they
just have really never given him that.
Speaker 1: And so you know, you look at.
Speaker 2: Last year he got called up and it was again
he only made nine starts, but it was just like
no rhyme or reason when they were bringing him up.
I think one time they brought him up as the
twenty seventh band of pitching a doubleheader. That's not something
you typically do to a young prospect. That's usually like
reserve for like your MLB journeyman, like thirty five year
old that's like still down at Triple A, that like
you don't care if he gets absolutely wrecked, like he's
that's who you put in that to that scenario, and
they did that to Light or twice last year.
Speaker 1: So the reason I'm harping on that for a second is.
Speaker 2: Last year Jack Lighter eight point eight three ere a
one point seven to one whip in nine appearances at
the big league level. So far this year, he spent
more time at the big league level. You know, he
was up starting in I would say really starting in May.
He spent a lot of April at Triple A and
he's he's been sort of in the big league rotation
for most of the year. But again, this is a
former second overall pick twenty twenty one draft, second overall pick,
and it's like, I don't know if they they're just
so sort of married to the fact that they drafted
him second overall, so it has to work. But he's
the type of guy I think he should have an
entire season at Triple A and they haven't given him that,
and because of that, he's he's just a very average
pitcher at this point at the big league level. So
that's why I'm I'm totally down to go. Like Lopez,
in my opinion, has been awesome. Think you know he
can He's not a bad team, but he seems like
the more of the big league ready pitcher at this point.
And you've got two teams where like they've seen a
lot of Lighter over the years through the minors, right
like the A's and the Rangers. Those those teams play
at double A and they play at Triple A constantly.
So I think all this this A's lineup, all of
them have large sample size against Lighter, and he's not
like doing anything that's confusing anyone at the big league level.
Tokyo Brandon, So A's are a lineup. I think they
could get to him. And you want to take you
want to give you me plus money in that scenario,
I'm very much with you there.
Speaker 4: So my parlay leg is gonna be the A's plus
one and a half at minus one eighty on Pinnacle.
Might be a better number somewhere else, but you know
this is not that official minus one eighties. Fine with me.
So here's my breakdown of the game, Lopez and Lighter.
I got Lighter as another chronic he walks too many guys.
The A's are hitting better. I got the A's lineup
rank four in Major League Baseball in current form, where
I have the Rangers ranked fifteen. Right in the middle
A's bullpen. I have them ranked three in current form,
and I know they're not that talented, but they're performing
that talented right now. And starting pitcher I have Lighter
leader Lighter. I have him ranked twenty six on a
curve of thirty, where I have Jacob Lopez at ten.
So I got the A's a huge advantage. So out
of thirty points, I have them twelve and a half
points better than the Rangers today. I don't know why
they're not favorite. It kind of scares me, but I did. Actually,
and Danny l carbon Danny Espinoza in the comments, I
agree with him wholeheartedly. The A's team total is three
and a half. That's ridiculous. They're on the road, So
everything to me leads to either A's over on the
team total, A's money line. Any way you can get
the A's I would take them today.
Speaker 2: Someone in the comments just made it a really good
city by today. Tell tell me a more underrated lineup
than the A's right now, that's a great that's a
great point. I mean this, this A's lineup a year
or two from now is probably going to be like
an elite lineup in Major League Baseball, if they all continue,
if they're all healthy, and they all sort of stay
on the trajectory they're on, I mean, they have so
much upside on that team, so so much like talent.
I mean, the talent is is insane when you talk
about like what Nick Kurtz should end up being, what
Jacob Wilson should end up being, the fact that, like
you know, Soderstrum has upside. Even Denzel Clark what a
player he is if he can hit, I mean he's like,
if he can like hit with any.
Speaker 1: Sort of consistency, he'd be the full package.
Speaker 2: And then you actually have proven guys like Lawrence Butler,
Brett Rooker, and there's a whole host of guys at
the minor league level that might be able to get
in the mix. I mean, they are loaded with line talent.
And so yeah, I very much agree with that. And
then just to go, I want to make a point here, Tokyo, Brandon,
we'll go a little long today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have not you know, we'll go a few
gets long.
Speaker 2: I want to make a point here that I've really
noticed over the last let's call it really more so
this year, but I started to know this. This noticed
this last year too, and I think it it makes
your case for Jacob Lopez being underrated to an extent.
Velocity became such a big deal in baseball that all
these it was like every pitcher needed to be throwing
like ninety eight nasty movement, and every hitter said, oh shit,
all these guys can throw really hard now, so we
need to like, you have to be able to hit Velo,
you have to be able to hit Vlo. And that's
all the guys that are in the league right now.
The guys that are in there early to mid twenties
grew up playing at a younger level where all these
everyone had a nasty fastball that moved, and everyone had to.
Speaker 1: Be able to hit ninety nine one hundred.
Speaker 2: And now the guys that are flying under the radar
that are like better than the market, and that's what
we care about as betters are guys like Jacob Lopez
who throw ninety but they command every single one of
their pitches, and he has five different pitches and he
has command over all of them.
Speaker 1: And the guys that aren't as good anymore are Jack Lighter.
Speaker 2: Who throws ninety eight and has this big fastball but
doesn't have a single other pitch that can compliment it.
Speaker 1: I just think that's super interesting.
Speaker 2: It's something I've started to notice, and so I'm willing
to bet on that sort of dichotomy all day.
Speaker 4: I think the reason the line is what it is
is because the Rangers have a really good home record
and the A's have a four away record. But honestly,
that doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot to me.
And if the Rangers are coming home off of a
road trip, that's even detrimental to that. I don't know
if they are or not. I haven't checked it yet.
I can't do two things at once. But if they're
coming back home from a road trip, home doesn't mean
home is actually a detriment. You know, would you rather
be out with thirty of your buddies hanging out in
Los Angeles or Las Vegas, or would you rather be
at home, you know, putting your kids to it.
Speaker 2: So I mean, listen the other thing too, Like there's
some man, I think I think the A's probably probably
prefer playing on the road at this point. Like it's
you know what I mean, It's it feels like Big
League Baseball as opposed to like their home stadium is
a minor league park in a town that didn't really
embrace them, and they didn't embrace that town. But the
other thing I think that, I think this goes back
to what the Rangers were supposed to be coming into
this season.
Speaker 1: It's it's clear that they're not that.
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're ever going to be that,
and so they're going to continue to get priced as
the team that was supposed to win the AL West
and they're just they're not going to win the AO West.
Speaker 1: I think I was even wrong about them to an extent.
Speaker 2: I thought there was going to be this big resurgence
for this team, and now they are just very much
a five hundred ball club.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 4: So, yeah, sorry, go ahead, No, I'm just.
Speaker 1: I'm just agreeing with that.
Speaker 2: I think there were a five hundred ball club, and
I think the wrong team is favored here. I may
even play the A's for clients. That's what I'm gonna
have to take a harder look at. But I'm very
hard When you were on that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I already did. It was plus one thirty when
I got it. Why are they plus one thirty with
that lineup. That's crazy.
Speaker 1: But yeah, like that that may have is one of those.
Speaker 4: Teams they're just like something about them. You know, it's
like two years from now, if they can keep that core,
if they can keep Rooker from going to the Yankees
or something, if they can keep that core man, once
they hit Las Vegas, they're going to be like the
like the the Golden Knights were when they hit Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, I'm very much in on this team
long term. TV.
Speaker 2: You may have even I'm gonna have to go look
at this one a little harder. I might even take
plus one ten, even if I know I missed out
on the great number you got, but I might have
to take uh plus one ten. Here and and Batman
in the chat, Adam Batman Westbury shout out to you. Yeah,
how could I forget sh Shaye Langeliers. I mean the names,
It just that there's there's guys. I'm even you know,
the name. It just goes on and on and on.
Speaker 1: The number of guys that they have if they had
starting pitching.
Speaker 2: But hey, maybe maybe Lopez is that consistent starter. He
certainly has the he certainly has the makeup. If he
can be consistent. He can stay in that rotation, as
you know, for a long time. So that's a that's
a good degners.
Speaker 4: Really good. Like I said, I have him ranked number
six on a curve of thirty. I don't know if
he's that talented. I don't know, but his expected numbers
data says he is.
Speaker 2: So all right, we're gonna I know we went over today,
but that's all right, We're gonna keep going.
Speaker 1: I got I got one more game.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna close the parlay out here and we'll talk
about this game.
Speaker 1: Then we'll get out of here.
Speaker 2: So you guys are getting an extra ten minutes today,
but we had a little technical difficulties and so you know,
we we'll go a little longer this morning. I'm gonna
use the Cardinals. Cardinals on the money line. That'll be
the final parlay leg. So we'll have so we've got
some jews, but that's okay. We'll figure out what that
three teamer is. I think the Cardinals right now are
minus one fifty. Do we have I'm just gonna look
at like the two books I have pulled up, and
I'll I don't think this is gonna vary that much
it's just a it's just a side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll call it minus one fifty so.
Speaker 2: Reason reason I like the Cardinals, and then I'll give
you a chance to rebuttal. They just got slapped around,
slapped around all weekend by the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: They were they were the Cardinals. I'm sorry. The Diamondbacks
were the clear better team in that series.
Speaker 2: I felt like the Diamondbacks consistently matched up better than
the Cardinals in that series, and so it doesn't surprise me,
although I was a little surprised on Saturday. I did
do a video on Saturday where I kind of talked
about liking the Cardinals. I did not bet it, but
I like the Cardinals. In that Saturday matchup, Sonny Gray
got blown up and it was all she wrote. And
that really was the the weekend for the Cardinals. I
think that this is going to be a very favorable
sort of follow up to that Diamondback series. No bigger
wake up call when you're a team like the Cardinals.
Who and I just want to post Yeah, so who
came into the came out of the All Star break
fifty one and forty six and very much in the
mix for a playoff position. Go out to the desert
and just get slapped around all weekend. You're still on
the road, but now you get to go up to Corusfield,
and in my opinion, like that has to be a
wake up and they and these are these have now
become games that.
Speaker 1: Are very, very important to this Cardinals team.
Speaker 2: And I think you're gonna get a very focused So
you guys don't think it's suspicious seeing the Rockies as
plus one thirty seven dogs. I'll address that. I think
they're plus one thirty seven dogs because Mike McGreevy is
the starter here for the Cardinals, and no one knows
who Michael McGreevy is. So he's been at Triple A
most of the year, but he's been fantastic all season,
even at the big league level, even on a couple
of chances he's gotten in the big leagues, he's been
very good and he's put together a great season at
Triple A.
Speaker 1: So I think that this.
Speaker 2: Is cheap because the Rockies tend to get some love
at home, even in a historically bad season. They beat
the Twins the other night. They're gonna win some of
these home games. But I think this is getting priced
as such because the Cardinals just lost three straight games
and they're gonna put out a pitcher that none of
you know. Maybe some of you know who Mike mcgrievey is,
but most people don't. And that's why this line is
the way it is. I'm telling you that what I've
seen from him this year at both the big league
level and Triple A has been very impressive.
Speaker 1: So that's someone I would am willing to bet on.
Speaker 2: And I think Tokyo Brandon, if this was a name
that people recognize, the Cardinals will be a two dollars favorite. Here,
you're still getting the Cardinals up against Austin Gomber. Okay,
they can beat Austin Gombert. Austin Gomber is not. I
mean at this point, he's a mid five e er guy,
Like he's never going to be anything other than that.
He's still in the big leagues because you know he
can he can go out and survive five innings at
course field. So yeah, this is a scenario where I
think the Cardinals are very very discounted. I think they
should be like a two dollars favorite, maybe more. And
so I'm going to uh so I want to keep cout,
Like so tri Trigg has the Cards going around from
slapped around in playing slap mask baseball. I feel like
people are missing the point. Okay, I just said the
Cardinals came out of the All Star Break, they were
clearly lethargic, and they got slapped around in the desert.
I'm now telling you I don't even think the Cardinals
have to play their best game to win here. I
think if the Cardinals do play their best game, they
probably win by eight runs. That's what I'm trying to say,
is like, you're getting a Cardinals team in a desperate
spot at a dollar fifty when they should be upwards
of two dollars, with a picture that's better than any
of you probably realize because you haven't really because he's
not a known commodity. But he's been down at Triple
A having a great season, and every time he gets
called up he does well. So yeah, that's why I
like the Cardinals. I don't know what's so hard to
understand about that. Tokyo Brandon, Do you have any follow
up there?
Speaker 4: Yeah, go to our replay and hit the like and
leave a comment for us. Tell wager Talk you love us.
I have a five percent out. Adam has a play
out today. Download my data sheet. It's all free, every picture,
breakdown and strikeout, projection outs, projection everything. So regarding this game,
I see a lot of people funny comments. There was
actually a Coco Crisp reference in the comments as well.
I didn't know we're doing funny MLB names.
Speaker 1: But so.
Speaker 4: A lot of people saying I don't trust McGreevy. I
don't try, But do you trust Gomber? Seriously?
Speaker 1: Do you trust?
Speaker 4: There's a Yan and a yang, guys, it's not just
the ying, right. So my rankings have Gomber ranked. I
have Gomber ranked thirty out of thirty. You guys, he's horrible,
and he's even worse at home. I think he has
like a seven plus e RA at home. Granted, I
don't know a lot about McGreevy, but do you need
to know a lot about him? I did look him up.
He doesn't go deep into games. So the bullpen might
be taking up a bit of the slack. The Rockies
are hitting the ball well so, but the Cardinal bullpen
is great and the Rockies bullpen is not performing well
right now, Cardinals would be the only way to go.
But I do think there will be a lot of
runs scored, and I do think McGreevy will probably give
up three, maybe four earned runs. But do you really
like Gomber? That's the question he's telling me.
Speaker 2: And what would be the what would be the problem
if the Cardinals' bullpen is involved early? They haven't really
used any of their best arms. They've been they've been
blown out three straight days, like, they've lost three straight
games in a row. So they have every leverage arm
that they could ask for available here.
Speaker 1: So what would be the problem if mcgreevy's goes short?
So what you got to? I mean a clear better bullten?
Speaker 4: Yeah exactly, I totally agree. And the Cardinals lineup not
performing as well as the Rockies lineup right now, which
is a bit of a concern. Also, the Cardinals away
record is a little bit of a concern. But when
you look at the Rockies twelve and thirty seven, I mean,
the Cardinals are not a great team, but they are
fifty one and forty nine. At least they're a decent,
put together baseball team. I think that's just just that
alone is good enough to probably get a win here. Yeah,
it's priced high, maybe take.
Speaker 2: I don't see high that's what he's saying. It's not
priced high. That's what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1: You have a hit.
Speaker 2: The Rockies might be one of the go down is
one of the worst teams in the history of baseball
this year when it's all said and done. Yeah, and
the Cardinals are a dollar fifty favorite in a game
that they need to win.
Speaker 1: Like that's the thing, that's the whole handicap.
Speaker 2: It's not price high. They should be like minus two twenty,
like got it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And so let me make a comparison. Like a
lot of people come into sports betting and say, I'm
not laying one sixty. I'm not laying one sixty. But
when we lay the numbers like that, it's like buying something.
So it's like saying I'm never spending one thousand dollars.
I'm never spending one thousand dollars. But if someone brought
you a Lamborghini, you'll spend one thousand dollars because it's value. Right.
So this is how you should have approached sports betting.
Don't say I never do X. You know, I never
do this, I never do that. You'll do it if
the price is right.
Speaker 2: So and listen, it's just it's again, it's just one game,
and I do think there's there's some merit to like
you really don't want to just constantly lay big prices
like against like the rock The Rockies are playing better
ball and they are gonna win some games like they
I actually think going forward they'll probably be they'll probably
be more prop While it's hard to be worse than
they were going into the break, I definitely think that
they could potentially be profitable against the number in the
second half, Like they're gonna probably win some games as
a pretty big dog. That makes them okay against the number.
What I'm saying here is that's a that's a A.
I just think it's a very cheap price for a
Cardinals team that has their whole bullpen.
Speaker 1: McGreevey's been good.
Speaker 2: Good enough, he's he's he's tracked on my minor league
pitcher ratings this year, And it really has become a
game the Cardinals desperately need after what happened this weekend.
And if it's just they this organization, the Cardinals, they
win this game, I don't know how else to put it.
Like when they need a win to stay stay in
the mix, they find a way, and I think they
find a way tonight.
Speaker 1: So without further ado, thanks for letting us go along today.
Speaker 2: Hey, we didn't have we only had one show last week,
so we had to come out and go to go
fifteen minutes longer today and I love.
Speaker 4: It.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian Bryan.
Speaker 2: Bryan also is not here to give us the ten
am hard out, but like I can sit here, and
I could sit here and argue with this wall about
the Cardinals all day.
Speaker 1: I love doing it me too.
Speaker 4: I really could for hours.
Speaker 1: So we won't.
Speaker 2: So our three team are today plus three thirty two odds.
I think that's fine. We're you know, we really want
to hit one of these. Get the momentum going back
in our favor. Still plus four point nine units are
up four dollars and ninety cents for every dollar if
you've been playing him since the beginning of the season.
So even though our bank role is dwindling away, we're
still ahead and we can still get back ahead if
we can have a strong week, and I hope it
starts here. So Brian Leonard Marlin's first five money line
that's minus one fifty Tokyo. Brandon is going with the
plus one and a half minus one eighty. And remember,
I think if you want to bet these separate, if
you want to bet the A's game and not put
it in the parlay, I think you just bet the A's,
don't don't bet plus one and a half. But for
the parlay, we're just you know, we're putting a three
teamer together. We'll take the run and a half, so
Marlin's first five money line A's plus one and a half,
and I will go with the Cardinals minus one fifty.
That is a plus three thirty two parlay. And I
hope kicks off a nice run of these because after
starting strong, we've kind of, you know, we're kind of
trending back toward even so we want to get back
into the profit with these, and I think we do today.
Thanks for letting us go along today. We had a
bunch of people joined late. This show is always up
on demand Tokyo.
Speaker 1: Brandon take us.
Speaker 4: Out five percent play for me. Adam's got to play up.
Download all my stats at my page, projections and everything.
It's everything you need for DFS and to win your
bets today. Have a great day, guys, Let's win some
money and we'll be back tomorrow night.
Speaker 2: Like subscribe if you want to leave a comment about
the Rockies or anything. We take all comments, good bad.
Tell us what you think hop Alo in the comments
on the YouTube, and we will see you guys tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow morning, nine am, hopefully back with Brian Leonard on
a nice solid Internet connection.
Speaker 1: We'll see you guys tomorrow morning. Have a great day.