Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody?
Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you are new,
we always start this show by being transparent. There were
no shows over the weekend. Last one was Friday. Friday
and it was a really good day and I won
seven out of eight. I believe it was an association,
So that was a really good one. Saturday, I played
Houston first half. I got the early line and it
plummeted after the opener and I lost. If you got
a later line, you won. And then Sunday NBA was
not kind. I should have just stayed away. Yesterday, oh
and three NBA, I won one and on college basketball
and went three and two in NFL, So it was
slightly backward yesterday. But since we last talked, it was
some money made Veno.
Speaker 1: Good to be back with you. How's everything going?
Speaker 3: Things are good? Ski?
Speaker 4: Let's Saturday? Well, first of all, I didn't play NBA
Saturday or Sunday.
Speaker 3: I don't believe.
Speaker 4: Well, I think I might have played the Golden State.
Now they played Chicago. I didn't have that game. So
no NBA Saturday or Sunday. College hoop has been what's
been hot lately? Fourteen and six last twenty had a
good day with that. Yesterday NFL was a complete split,
too good, too bad. I'm involved tonight in this game
between the Eagles and the Chargers, so we'll see if
we can't go ahead and tilt the scales to a
plus winning week in the NFL here and now. Of course,
we have college bowl games upcoming too, so it be
a big time of year upcoming.
Speaker 2: All right, you know, let's get to some of this
NBA for today. I mean, first up, we're looking at
Kings and Pacers. Opened up three and a half for
the Pacers, looks like four total open two thirty four.
Not the most movement to thirty four and a half.
And as far as the injury report is concerned, let
me actually refresh. You have Keegan very questionable, get a
shorter questionable the bonus out for this Pacers team, saying
five guys that are on there every single game are listed.
You know, my first thought when I see both of
these teams playing each other is I expect not a
whole lot of defense. You know, I expect faster pace
than what I'm looking at from these last five pace numbers.
The Pacers are down the twenty fourth and that's not
really the style I see this game going. There was
a comment here, you know, I'll ask you. Brian says,
what's the Fellas Kings pacers under robbed?
Speaker 1: Do you think they're going to score?
Speaker 4: It's obviously with me, it's my first reaction as long
as it's not placed in the two forties to think
over in this game, the Kings have been so ice
cold ski They were like two and twelve against the
spread until they finally covered again. It kind of surprising
that they went to Miami and one the way that
they did. But you always feel, at least I always
feel like with the players that they have, it is
all offense, no defense. I think not having some bonus
is a big deal for this team because he's such
a playmaker from the center position. All that being said,
I still can't look at it any other way except over. Honestly,
I don't know which side. I keep thinking that Indiana
will begin to pick it up because they've gotten a
little healthy over the course of the last ten games.
Straight up wise, they have against the spread, they have not.
Totals wise, they've been about a fifty to fifty proposition
over under. But if I was going to play tonight,
I would look towards the over here. I just feel
like two thirty four and a half it's a little light.
Both of these teams more than capable against one another
to get to the one twenty marks. So I didn't play,
but if I had to. In response to the comment there,
I probably would look over.
Speaker 1: That's how I would dank.
Speaker 2: And the Pacers still have been playing better defense than
the Kings lately, offenses look better.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I'll trust the Pacers at home here. I know I
don't like to usually lay with them, but se either
Pacers are over for me in this game.
Speaker 1: We'll keep going to the next one.
Speaker 2: That is Sons in te Wolves open minus ten down
to eight or seven and a half, depending where he shot.
Total opened two twenty six down as low as to
twenty two and a half. Dylan Brooks questionable, Devin Booker,
Jalen Green Out, Terrence Shannon Junior, and Anthony Edwards questionable.
It makes sense why this total is dropping. I mean,
it's a lot of scoring you could miss right without Booker,
Brooks and potentially Anthony Edwards. So just based on that,
I can understand to move down. This is a Timberwolves
team that.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, they they didn't cover both of those games
versus Pelicans. I feel like this Timberwolves team has just
really been struggling to cover in general lately. It's very
hard to think of you know why I want to
lay the big number. I can understand no Brooks, no Booker,
but you also have no ant. It's just tough. I
think under It's how I feel best right now. You
know what do you think about it?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: The injury list makes it hard on both sides. It
makes it hard. But to your point, Minnesota's winning games,
but they're not winning anything by margin. So again, it
because I can see why people took the points right
off the top, because regardless of who's in the game,
why would you want to lay ten points with Minnesota
right now? Yes, they're five and oh straight up against
this excuse me, straight up the last five games, but
against a spread that's only a one in four. Kind
of hard to do that skid be five and oh
straight up and one in four. Ats just overvalued in
the market right now, and I think it's mainly because defensively,
they just.
Speaker 3: Give up points.
Speaker 4: There was a point in time last year, or you know,
maybe even the year before, where Minnesota we thought they
had turned the corner as a defensive team. This year
has not been that year defensively for them. Looking at
their team totals last five to four and one to
the over, looking at their full game totals last five,
four and one to the over, it came on the
heels of a huge underrun, kind of sporadic, inconsistent results
for them. I would have liked to have played Phoenix
here if all things were level, Like if Anthony Edwards
was playing and Phoenix.
Speaker 3: Had Brooks and.
Speaker 4: Booker, I would have probably played Phoenix and taken points
here because I just think that they give more forty
eight minutes of effort than Minnesota does.
Speaker 3: Minnesota is missing something at this point in time. Can't
let it.
Speaker 4: I'm kind of scared to take it. With the missing
Suns personnel. Maybe under is the right I don't know.
Sometimes when you get the big stars out of the way,
the backups come in and score their share. Too tough
for me to call, so I'll probably leave this one alone.
Speaker 1: It is tough.
Speaker 2: I agree with you that if everybody was in Booker,
Brooks and and I would be looking towards the Suns.
It's just without Brooks and Booker is just is tough.
Speaker 1: So the only.
Speaker 2: Logical thing to me is, you know, in line with
the market, if you're missing that much scoring. Both of
these teams are playing at a slower pace right now,
or at least last five games, I would agree that
it should go under.
Speaker 1: Brian asking about Phoenix first half to keep it close.
Speaker 2: It's hard to trust Phoenix, but I understand fade in
Minnesota just because that's how they've been playing. They haven't
covered the first half the last five games, so that
I can understand, all right. You know, last game in
the NBA, Spurs and Pelicans opened up minus ten for
San Antonio now nine and a half and the total
hasn't hasn't moved further. Injuries, you have Cornette questionable, McLaughlin
and Winby out Castle looks like he's back in the
lineup for the Pelicans, Herb Jones questionable. The other three guys,
you know, Murray Pools Iron not going to be playing.
This is one that I'm most interested in here today.
You know, I haven't played it yet, but I'm trying
to find and I'm looking towards the Pelicans. Here, the
Spurs team, I mean, the defense has just been bad
for one and I always say, how can I trust
the team to win by this big of a margin
if they can't get stops? This is the was it
the bottom five defensive rated team last five games? So really, really,
that's the basis for me wanting to find reasons to
back the Pelicans. I look at the Spurs. They've only
been as big of a favorite. They've been a favorite
of more than seven I think twice this year they
didn't cover either one of them. This is not the
Spurs role. I know it's nine and a half, but
I know the Pelicans. Pelicans at the double diggit dog,
they're eight and four. H Yes, like that's been the role,
especially here at home. I want to try to get
there with the Pelicans. Anything from you here, you know,
how do you feel about it?
Speaker 4: Well, I think you can make that case ski on
a couple of added added elements here, real quick working
Castle back in and reintegrating him back into the fold.
We usually say when a starter comes back, sometimes it's
not as cohesive as it was prior to the injury.
He was out for quite a while. But the second
thing here, and probably the most notable thing, is the
fact that the last sixteen games that the Pelicans have played,
they're one in fifteen straight up, one in fifteen straight up.
You automatically think that team sucks, can't bet them, can't
play them. But those sixteen games, they're ten and six
against the spread. Ten and six is sixty two percent covers,
and they're all his underdogs a big price like this one.
So to your point about san Antonio not being very
good defensively, the Pelicans playing this exact role almost every night.
They take the floor, big underdog and covering, lose the game,
but cover they managed to stay close enough to be
ten and six against the spread. So I think that
would be a real good basis for making a play
on New Orleans. It's one of those where I know
you like to call them dirty dogs, hold your nose,
whatever you want to call them New Orleans. They've been
profitable and I don't know why that changes. I mean,
they've had their share of injuries all season long, they've
learned how to play with the injured players out, So
to me, probably plus the points would be the best
way to look. Again, it's not something I played, so
I won't fully recommend it or endorse it, but I
would say if I'm going to play, it would be
New Orleans plus the points.
Speaker 2: Nice guy says Birds have no big man. Teams have
been going straight to the rim. I mean Cornett is
questionable if he's not out there. I mean me and
you Rob could go in there and get.
Speaker 3: A couple of ye So get a few buckets.
Speaker 2: I think nine and a half is a little bit
too many points for that one. I'm looking towards the pelice.
Speaker 1: All right. You know, talk a little bit of Eagles,
Chargers your neck of the woods, my neck of the Woods.
Speaker 2: Not necessarily your team, though, but it is my team.
Speaker 1: Open minus two for Philly.
Speaker 2: I'm saying two two and a half put to open
forty three and a half down as low as forty one.
Speaker 1: And a half. So I'll start off and say this.
I always say about the Chargers.
Speaker 2: You know, they're not good against teams that can run
the ball, and I do usually view the Eagles as
a team that can.
Speaker 1: Run the ball.
Speaker 2: But they haven't been running lately, like say Kwan has
like twenty three carries the past two weeks. AJ has
been crying now they're throwing the ball the aj all
game and the Eagles just I don't know, just don't
look good. If you try to pass all game on
the Chargers, I don't think you're gonna have success. That's
just what it boils down to me. And also you
can the Eagles do they have somebody injured on the
offensive line, Lane Johnson right or.
Speaker 3: Lane Johnson's out?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So I don't know that they're gonna be
able to run the ball. Even then, I look at
the Chargers side. You know, the Eagles defense look really
good for a few weeks. That Bears. That Bears run game,
the Bears run game is good. They just ran all
over them.
Speaker 2: If Philly, I mean they don't have also Jalen Why
am I blackout?
Speaker 1: Is it Jalen Carter?
Speaker 2: Yeah, they don't have Jalen Carter. I mean I could
see the Chargers running the ball. I always say the
Chargers with their offensive line as it is right now,
they can't really pass block very well, but they're good
run blocking.
Speaker 1: So I think.
Speaker 2: I think the Chargers will run the ball. I do
trust them to do that. I want to take the
points US two and a half, but maybe more than that.
You know, if both teams are running the ball, running
the ball.
Speaker 1: Tick tick tick tick Philly.
Speaker 2: My thought of Philly is like when they play on
the road, they try to control, like did I say,
they try to control, like you know, who has the
ball the most of the time. Between that and just
me the game plan, our views should be like just
running the ball. I think under Market did move it down.
I think it's right.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 4: Try I played this one. It seems like we're pretty
closely aligned here. Here's what I played. I played the
Chargers team total over twenty and a half and I
played it.
Speaker 3: You know, this game is.
Speaker 4: Funny, the line movement ski because I think some of it.
First of all, the Eagles are a very public team,
so they're always going to get money, especially in a
standalone game. But secondly, I think people are kind of
taking Justin Herbert's you know, injured left hand into too
much consideration here. He played with that thing before the
surgery last week. He played with it busted up and
still threw the ball pretty effectively. Then he had the
surgery this week, and it seems like the things are
stabilized and the left hand shouldn't be a problem. But
beyond that, the point that you hit is the reason
why I played the game. Listen if Philly got absolutely
steamrolled in their front seven by the Bears offensive line
last week. The Bears ran, and then they ran, and
then they ran again. They ran for like over two
hundred duds. Nobody does that against Philadelphia. Was so crazy
to see that happen. And now you're going to take
their best run stuffer out of that mix. Jalen Carter
the shoulder operation out, and I immediately thought of Jim Harbaugh.
Speaker 3: He's a guy who wants to run the football to
begin with.
Speaker 4: Herbert's got the bad left hand, not that I think
it's going to affect him any but it probably makes
hardball want to run it even more. Now with Carter
out and vadal looked great running the ball last game,
you might get Omari and Hampton back. I don't know
if he's been activated here for this game or now,
but you might have a two headed monster at running back.
Speaker 1: I don't think so, but hope even if he.
Speaker 4: Doesn't like, Yeah, Vadalla's being I mean, he was a
horse at Troy when he was in college and he's
He's becoming.
Speaker 3: Really good here for the Chargers.
Speaker 4: When they can run the football, they can play action
pass off of that as good as anybody.
Speaker 3: The receiving crew is.
Speaker 4: Healthy, they've been improved. Chargers still have to win games.
Speaker 3: Ski.
Speaker 4: They're in like that five spot in the AFC standings
where a couple of teams won yesterday, Jacksonville and somebody
else that put a little press, puts a little pressure
run Charges.
Speaker 3: To keep winning. The Eagles are in a more comfortable position.
Speaker 4: Nobody's going to push them for the NFC East title
now that Dallas lost again. So to me, I thought
LA's offense should have a lot of success here. I
don't think the Eagles can fix what's broke in a week.
The strength of that defense is that front seven, and
if you weaken it the way the Bears did, I
think the Chargers can do the same thing, honestly. And then,
like you say, you know, if the Chargers get on
top Ski and Jalen has to throw to come from behind,
not that he can't do it, but the Charger pass
defense is one of the best in the NFL. So
I chose to play Charger team total over twenty the
Eagles have given up twenty four each of the last
two weeks. And then I took a shot with the
Chargers on the money line. I just gave the two
and a half up and say, you know what, if
the Charger is going to be this closed, they'll probably
win this game. So those are the two ways I
played it, the only two things I bet today between
NFL and NBA. But I do like the Chargers here.
I think they'll score twenty one or more in this game.
Speaker 2: So that was the team total over twenty one and
a half, right, twenty and a half.
Speaker 1: Twenty and a half.
Speaker 3: Okay, they got to get the twenty one.
Speaker 2: Interesting, so we agree on the side I think the
Chargers will score.
Speaker 1: I could.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't disagree Chargers. I think I'm gonna
think about this a little bit more.
Speaker 3: But we like him in that underdog grow right. We
don't want him as a favorite.
Speaker 1: No, that's right, that's right, cross up.
Speaker 2: Nope, this is catching my attention.
Speaker 1: It seems kind of low.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't I'm not haven't been studying how
many Russias attempts he's been getting, but I would expect.
Speaker 1: Him to be running a lot tonight.
Speaker 2: Nine and a half rush attempts seems pretty pretty low low. Yeah,
So I'll look into the NFL a little bit more
as the day goes on. But you guys have my
early opinions, my early thoughts, all right, you know that
is what we're here to talk about for today. So
I don't think we we could put this up right
full court all access past three days of NBA and
college basketball for only forty nine dollars if you like
to be involved.
Speaker 1: And then we do have.
Speaker 2: The longer term one year past and get five hundred
bucks off comes out to just one twenty five a month,
and if you do purchase a one year past, you
get twenty five percent bonus coupon on top of that.
So Vino, I will kick it over to you, ask
you if there's anything else you'd like to promote, and
if you have a best bet for the show, we'd
love to hear it.
Speaker 4: Ski. I'm just quickly while you were talking there, looking
at the numbers. You know, Vidal had twenty five carries
last week. That number is nine and a half.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm like. It seems off, It seems like
almost that's a mistake.
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm glad they brought that because I don't play.
Speaker 3: Props all that much.
Speaker 4: I'm just glad that that was brought to our tension
because I might have to look at that myself, even
though not a prop.
Speaker 1: Player anyway, is low because Hampton is back.
Speaker 3: Hampton is back. The potential for Hampton and that the potential.
Speaker 4: I remember reading a quote this week from Marion Hampton
who said We're going to be trouble once I get back,
and I took it as he thought that he was
going to play this Monday night, and.
Speaker 3: He's a big back if he had the Eagles.
Speaker 4: We talked about the personnel up front, they could be
in for a little bit of a at least LA
is going to try and pound it at him. Promotion SKI,
nothing to say here, really, you covered it pretty well.
I know tomorrow will be able to talk five dollars
Tuesday and whatever new promotions are being brought forward. I
do know that there's a package for Bowl season, guys,
Bowl season right through the NCAA Playoff Championship game. WAJER
talk has reduced the price last year. I will say
as far as the last six weeks of the season,
which is what we're into right here. I was number
one to close the season at wijer talk last year.
Usually pretty successful this time of year, so she can
check out that package at wijertalk dot com. You know,
I'll go off the board here Ski because I didn't
play NBA today, but I will go off the board
to the NFL and just I think the Chargers are
gonna get the twenty one here in this game, so
I'm gonna leave over twenty and a half.
Speaker 3: It was a client play today, guys.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna use it as a best bet here for
the show La Chargers team total up and over twenty
and a half.
Speaker 1: Good stuff from Vino.
Speaker 2: For myself, I haven't made a bet yet, but I
do really like that Repelicans plus nine and a half.
Like we talked about it quite a bit. They're also
the number two fast break team last five games going
up against the bottom bottom ten fast break defense. Spurs
have been living in the mid range. Pelicans number one
as far as mid range field goal percentage allowed and
number two as far as mitt range attempts allowed.
Speaker 1: Should be able to, you know, shut down a little.
Speaker 2: Bit of what the Spurs have been trying to do
most and take advantage of them in the fast break.
Combination of those things with lack of rim protection, no
winby could miscordinet. You know, getting Castle back in the
lineup could throw off the rhythm of how things has
been to Spurs. Like I said, it hasn't been their
role big favorites, like they've only been a big favorite
of more than seven I believe two times haven't covered once.
Pelicans a big dogs has been their role. So I'll
take them here today. Plus nine and a half looks
like the best number I can get, and that will
be my best bet for the show. You know, all,
I appreciate you taking the time to you know, go
through the card and cap these games with me. Everybody
in the chat, we appreciate you tapping in and you know,
bring your energy to the show as well.
Speaker 1: We'll be back again tomorrow.
Speaker 2: We'll have I think there's a lot more games tomorrow,
So best of luck on your action tonight and we
will get you all tomorrow