Speaker 1: But what happens if we get into regime where the US.
Speaker 2: Dollar is firm and steady, which you can get in
a post bubble contraction, and the senior currency becomes chronically firm.
That's the term I age right, firm, and.
Speaker 3: The federals there won't be able to depreciate it. I
love it.
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Speaker 5: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carrie Let's with us now? Is Bob Hoy? Bob?
Speaker 6: It's great.
Speaker 5: Have you back on the show.
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I always enjoy our conversations.
Speaker 3: Back and forth Carrie, and we are living.
Speaker 8: In fascinating times for the financial markers, don't you agree?
Speaker 5: Oh my goodness, gracious, well, we always knew what was
going to happen, but you know, you see it, You
wait for so long and then finally it actually happens
and it's like, oh, okay, so we were right.
Speaker 9: It just took a while, right.
Speaker 2: Hey, yeah, well, as you know, I'm a financial historian.
Speaker 7: Yes, and this our work in first quarter was it
the Marcus would rise right through to midyear.
Speaker 3: Then we got to midyear.
Speaker 10: And said, hey, it's going to continue to continue right
maybe into September and it could get rather exciting.
Speaker 3: So this we have and we're into September.
Speaker 7: I'll get in towards they ended September, but this is
going to continue.
Speaker 2: It is turning into being a really outstanding rise.
Speaker 7: But on our technical work, it's not yet what we
would call ending action.
Speaker 3: So we're going with the flow and let it continue.
Speaker 1: And we'll just see where it takes us.
Speaker 2: And it's been wonderful.
Speaker 3: Now there's science out there that there contion area.
Speaker 11: There's quite a flow of retail.
Speaker 3: Money into the market, which.
Speaker 1: Means you know, the small.
Speaker 2: Traders, and they they don't come into the market Adam
fort Rose, they come in close to important highs.
Speaker 3: So we're but we're just going to stay with it, Cherry.
Speaker 7: It is a wonderful rise and we will be watching
to see if this accomplishes excesses.
Speaker 12: And we're also aware that if Chapman's.
Speaker 7: Going to go wrong, it can be found in October November.
Speaker 11: But I don't know.
Speaker 12: I don't think that somehow this has got special lay
the stock market.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, well, it just shows I play with
a little concept called comex GPT. It's like chat EPT.
It's the AI that rigs all the metals markets, and
lately it's been having a meltdown because all the tricks
it's been using for the past sixty years to suppress
metal prices manipulate markets are failing. And we saw that
raid last I think it was a week ago, last Monday,
give or take a day or two, where silver went
down a dollar and then within two days it had
more than recouped its loss. That's the kind of thing
we were seeing back in the two thousand and nine
and ten.
Speaker 13: You know, well, what my historical work has done is
in a in a boom, you know, in the good times,
silver will outperform gold, right, and it has been.
Speaker 1: But it also silver is the silver bugs of course,
a rave about silver.
Speaker 3: All the time because it demonstery. You can show that there's.
Speaker 14: A shortage every year.
Speaker 8: But they overlooked the fact that silver silver has a
hell of a financial component in it.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and of course that.
Speaker 3: Shows up in the gold silver ratio. And so this
is another one of our little tools.
Speaker 2: If you get a sudden reversal in silver.
Speaker 3: Relative to goal, like gets weaker.
Speaker 2: That's a head It heads up on the overall speculation
out there. But silver was in that sort of range
pattern for a while and then you knew that it
would just break out and.
Speaker 3: Jump up at some point. And we're just going with
the flow here, but watching the gold silver ratio for
any change. Now.
Speaker 9: The other one that we do is a little is.
Speaker 2: Also goals real place price, and the traditional way of.
Speaker 1: Doing that is it's deplayed it by the consumer.
Speaker 2: Price Index and that number only comes out monthly, and
found out have a lot.
Speaker 7: Livelier way to look at it, and that's gold divided
by the CRB quantity. And then we've also assumed that
the CRB is the reasonable proxy for.
Speaker 2: Gold mining costs, and it is. I've talked to, you know,
some serious gold miners in the business.
Speaker 7: There's another number out there, I can't remember what it is,
but they agree with me that the CTRB is a
rough pXY for mining costs and it.
Speaker 3: Has been acting well, but.
Speaker 2: What again, we do our technos on it, and it's.
Speaker 3: Been acting well. So one of the things that I really.
Speaker 7: Liked about this approach, Jerry, is that most pundits out there,
they look at the gold indullar terms, and of course
the thesis is the US dollar down, gold up, gold
stocks up.
Speaker 1: But what happens if we get into regime where the
US staller is firm and steady, which you can get
in a post bubble contraction, and the senior currency becomes
chronically firm.
Speaker 11: That's the term I use corre firm.
Speaker 3: Or reserve be able to depreciate it. I love it,
but that's all right because gold.
Speaker 14: Adjusts and in previous post bubble disasters, the gold stocks
of course you go up and down with violent moves
in the big stock market, but.
Speaker 2: Net out, over a few years, that real price going.
Speaker 7: Up makes the industry profitable or is improving profitability when most.
Speaker 1: Industry and commerce as suffering.
Speaker 2: The hard times of post bubble depression.
Speaker 14: So this is where we really like gold and have.
Speaker 2: Been considering it in the early years.
Speaker 14: Uh and most of the.
Speaker 7: Typically post bubble contraction has lasted for about twenty years.
Speaker 3: Sure, with the you know the usual three for your.
Speaker 2: Business cycle coming and going. But we set in the
post bubble.
Speaker 7: Contraction, we reset resettion such as that there's and the
recovery is are weak.
Speaker 2: But anyways, the whole thing shifts over such that most
industry and commerce is not making much money and the
gold sector is now.
Speaker 7: The market forces behind this.
Speaker 2: Carrier fascinating because you've had a great financial bubble in
debt and in junk bond debt, and then of course
junk bonds disappear, I.
Speaker 7: Mean they just bankrupt, go ball, bust and default, whatever
you want to call it.
Speaker 2: And then you have a whole row of investment grade
bonds that drop down into junks.
Speaker 3: So the lower grade bond becomes.
Speaker 2: A disaster, and so there's no place to go.
Speaker 12: But what we like one in a storm, and if
we get a seriousancial storm, an ideal position.
Speaker 3: Even for equity people would.
Speaker 11: Be three to four year good grade.
Speaker 10: Corporate bonds, right because if you're in cash or cash equivalent, the.
Speaker 1: Treasure build rate it's pretty.
Speaker 2: Much treasure bill rate is about four thirty eight.
Speaker 12: Now it's going to go down to zero again.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so you do want to be in short term
instruments rolling over every month, forget about it.
Speaker 11: But this is where we like a street to four
year maturities and good great corporate bonds, so you're going
to get some decent income and then at the three
year or four year maturity they mature par.
Speaker 3: So you get all your money back to speed.
Speaker 2: So that is a very nice place to be for
fixed income people.
Speaker 8: And this when the storm comes in, it could be
a wide disaster to stock market.
Speaker 2: So even even equity people should be looking at this position.
Speaker 3: Yeah makes sense to me.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's for sure, that's for sure. So how high
is silver to go? We're going to see triple digit silver?
Your prediction?
Speaker 2: I think we can approach that.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, Martin Armstrong said fifty and then corrected himself
later and said seventy five.
Speaker 3: So we haven't put a target that high on it yet.
Just let'sten. We're on the trend, and the way we.
Speaker 2: Work is when the excess has come in and then
we make the notes.
Speaker 5: So yeah, okay, well that's all right, that's all right.
I want you to go out on a limb here, Bob.
Speaker 11: Well, you know, we've got our list of.
Speaker 2: Junior gold mining stars and we've been keeping that Okay,
Well it was I think December twenty three when we
put together that list, and there's been some very nice
winners woo.
Speaker 1: And it's on the basis that equity guys can buy.
Speaker 2: The senior goals, yeah, and you're going to get average
Middland goals will be a little better.
Speaker 11: And then let's tag in, of course to the juniors.
Speaker 2: And if you have a portfolio of say ten.
Speaker 3: Or eleven as we're recommending, h well.
Speaker 1: You can't get some terrific moves in these things.
Speaker 9: Sure, they kind of the way the bottom of a
bear market, and that was a long time ago for Gold. Yeah,
and first of all the seniors bottom they move up,
then the middle of the months bottom and move up,
and then finally.
Speaker 3: The play goes gets enough confidence to go for the juniors.
So this is where we think it's important.
Speaker 2: A good way of getting a closure in Gold.
Speaker 3: Equities is the juniors.
Speaker 5: And anybody can get in touch with us and we'll
give you the list, all right, So just send me
an email kl at Kerrie lets dot com. I'll make
sure that Bob gets you the list. That list has
really been paying off handsomely lately. I like the juniors
and I won't name names, but ones that have uplisted
to like the New York American or the Nasdaq. There
aren't that many of them, but those stocks now the
funds can put money in, and it's a whole new
echelon of investor. Have you got a list of them?
Speaker 3: Yeah, we have, all right.
Speaker 1: I think there's eleven in the list.
Speaker 7: We updated every two or three months because some of
them have moved in a couple of turkeys.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well you're going to have that, I mean, yeah,
that's why we're too.
Speaker 2: Oh, I think the list is eleven. We thought it
was a lucky number.
Speaker 5: Are we done yet?
Speaker 3: Or are we going to see?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 5: How much longer does this bull have to run? I mean,
every good thing ends eventually.
Speaker 12: Keep saying we're only a few years into.
Speaker 3: A multi year bow market for gold stocks. Yeah, and of.
Speaker 8: Course they will be influenced if we get a major
hit in the stock market.
Speaker 3: We knows, maybe next year.
Speaker 2: The gold stocks will sell off with.
Speaker 12: A major hit to the New York Stock Exchange.
Speaker 3: All right, so you know it well.
Speaker 2: And then there was a really good headline the other
day about foreign investors rolling.
Speaker 7: Into New York to buy the New York Stock Exchange,
and of course that was the game.
Speaker 3: In the summer of nineteen twenty nine. International money was
coming into the.
Speaker 7: New York Stock Exchange because they were big stocks acting
very well liquidity and all that.
Speaker 2: Sort of stuff.
Speaker 8: And there's a little vignette about Radio Corporate America if
we've got time for.
Speaker 5: It period, Yeah, yeah, tell us, tell us please boy okay.
Speaker 1: RCA. Radio Corporate America was the big.
Speaker 10: High tech darling in the nineteen twenty nine market, and
they were.
Speaker 2: And then I had they went up to one hundred
and twenty five dollars anyways, but the street was estimating
street dollars to share earnings, and this was wonderful. And
of course it didn't crash down to about a dollar
and a half and.
Speaker 3: Her innings went down to zero. But they eventually got
back up.
Speaker 2: To street dollars to share, and that was in nineteen
fifty six with the Elvis Presley contract.
Speaker 9: Really, and in nineteen twenty nine, who could predict Elvis
press me?
Speaker 1: It can't, you know, it's impossible.
Speaker 14: So they the story changes.
Speaker 2: So one of the oh here's another one, the eighteen.
Speaker 6: Seventy tree bubble, the big high tech stocks was the
Western Union Telegraph. So that was that was the high
tech stuff, and even more exciting for Western Union if.
Speaker 8: They were providing the ticker tape into all offices.
Speaker 2: And brokerage offices and all that sort of stuff. So
so Western Union got a way up there.
Speaker 10: Now I can't remember the price, but I do remember
the headline in September October of eighteen seventy three.
Speaker 3: After that bubble was over. Wow, And in the week's.
Speaker 2: Time it gave up forty.
Speaker 3: And this was the big high tech darling.
Speaker 2: So I mean, giving up for a week for a
stock like that is devastating.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, this is true, all right, Bob.
Speaker 5: Well, hey everybody, just if you want Bob's latest eleven stocks,
and they've been performing quite well, shoot me an email
kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. You can find Bob.
Just do a Google search. He's all over the web.
And hey, of course, ours is Financial Survival Network dot com.
We're now using substack, have done away with our website altogether.
It's working amazing. It handles mailing lists, it handles audio,
it handles the video, and also is a great writing platform,
which we've been writing a lot of things lately. And
we'll write one about this. Appreciate you coming on as always, Bob.
We will talk to you again soon.
Speaker 1: Good deal, we had some fun game.
Speaker 5: Always be well, my friend.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,