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Speaker 1: But what happens if we get into regime where the US.

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Speaker 2: Dollar is firm and steady, which you can get in

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a post bubble contraction, and the senior currency becomes chronically firm.

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That's the term I age right, firm, and.

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Speaker 3: The federals there won't be able to depreciate it. I

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love it.

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Speaker 4: You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you

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get valuable information. You just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 5: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Carrie Let's with us now? Is Bob Hoy? Bob?

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Speaker 6: It's great.

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Speaker 5: Have you back on the show.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I always enjoy our conversations.

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Speaker 3: Back and forth Carrie, and we are living.

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Speaker 8: In fascinating times for the financial markers, don't you agree?

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Speaker 5: Oh my goodness, gracious, well, we always knew what was

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going to happen, but you know, you see it, You

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wait for so long and then finally it actually happens

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and it's like, oh, okay, so we were right.

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Speaker 9: It just took a while, right.

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Speaker 2: Hey, yeah, well, as you know, I'm a financial historian.

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Speaker 7: Yes, and this our work in first quarter was it

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the Marcus would rise right through to midyear.

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Speaker 3: Then we got to midyear.

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Speaker 10: And said, hey, it's going to continue to continue right

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maybe into September and it could get rather exciting.

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Speaker 3: So this we have and we're into September.

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Speaker 7: I'll get in towards they ended September, but this is

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going to continue.

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Speaker 2: It is turning into being a really outstanding rise.

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Speaker 7: But on our technical work, it's not yet what we

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would call ending action.

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Speaker 3: So we're going with the flow and let it continue.

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Speaker 1: And we'll just see where it takes us.

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Speaker 2: And it's been wonderful.

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Speaker 3: Now there's science out there that there contion area.

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Speaker 11: There's quite a flow of retail.

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Speaker 3: Money into the market, which.

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Speaker 1: Means you know, the small.

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Speaker 2: Traders, and they they don't come into the market Adam

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fort Rose, they come in close to important highs.

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Speaker 3: So we're but we're just going to stay with it, Cherry.

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Speaker 7: It is a wonderful rise and we will be watching

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to see if this accomplishes excesses.

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Speaker 12: And we're also aware that if Chapman's.

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Speaker 7: Going to go wrong, it can be found in October November.

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Speaker 11: But I don't know.

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Speaker 12: I don't think that somehow this has got special lay

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the stock market.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, well, it just shows I play with

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a little concept called comex GPT. It's like chat EPT.

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It's the AI that rigs all the metals markets, and

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lately it's been having a meltdown because all the tricks

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it's been using for the past sixty years to suppress

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metal prices manipulate markets are failing. And we saw that

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raid last I think it was a week ago, last Monday,

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give or take a day or two, where silver went

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down a dollar and then within two days it had

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more than recouped its loss. That's the kind of thing

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we were seeing back in the two thousand and nine

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and ten.

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Speaker 13: You know, well, what my historical work has done is

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in a in a boom, you know, in the good times,

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silver will outperform gold, right, and it has been.

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Speaker 1: But it also silver is the silver bugs of course,

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a rave about silver.

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Speaker 3: All the time because it demonstery. You can show that there's.

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Speaker 14: A shortage every year.

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Speaker 8: But they overlooked the fact that silver silver has a

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hell of a financial component in it.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, and of course that.

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Speaker 3: Shows up in the gold silver ratio. And so this

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is another one of our little tools.

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Speaker 2: If you get a sudden reversal in silver.

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Speaker 3: Relative to goal, like gets weaker.

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Speaker 2: That's a head It heads up on the overall speculation

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out there. But silver was in that sort of range

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pattern for a while and then you knew that it

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would just break out and.

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Speaker 3: Jump up at some point. And we're just going with

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the flow here, but watching the gold silver ratio for

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any change. Now.

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Speaker 9: The other one that we do is a little is.

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Speaker 2: Also goals real place price, and the traditional way of.

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Speaker 1: Doing that is it's deplayed it by the consumer.

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Speaker 2: Price Index and that number only comes out monthly, and

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found out have a lot.

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Speaker 7: Livelier way to look at it, and that's gold divided

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by the CRB quantity. And then we've also assumed that

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the CRB is the reasonable proxy for.

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Speaker 2: Gold mining costs, and it is. I've talked to, you know,

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some serious gold miners in the business.

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Speaker 7: There's another number out there, I can't remember what it is,

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but they agree with me that the CTRB is a

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rough pXY for mining costs and it.

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Speaker 3: Has been acting well, but.

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Speaker 2: What again, we do our technos on it, and it's.

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Speaker 3: Been acting well. So one of the things that I really.

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Speaker 7: Liked about this approach, Jerry, is that most pundits out there,

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they look at the gold indullar terms, and of course

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the thesis is the US dollar down, gold up, gold

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stocks up.

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Speaker 1: But what happens if we get into regime where the

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US staller is firm and steady, which you can get

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in a post bubble contraction, and the senior currency becomes

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chronically firm.

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Speaker 11: That's the term I use corre firm.

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Speaker 3: Or reserve be able to depreciate it. I love it,

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but that's all right because gold.

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Speaker 14: Adjusts and in previous post bubble disasters, the gold stocks

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of course you go up and down with violent moves

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in the big stock market, but.

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Speaker 2: Net out, over a few years, that real price going.

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Speaker 7: Up makes the industry profitable or is improving profitability when most.

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Speaker 1: Industry and commerce as suffering.

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Speaker 2: The hard times of post bubble depression.

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Speaker 14: So this is where we really like gold and have.

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Speaker 2: Been considering it in the early years.

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Speaker 14: Uh and most of the.

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Speaker 7: Typically post bubble contraction has lasted for about twenty years.

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Speaker 3: Sure, with the you know the usual three for your.

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Speaker 2: Business cycle coming and going. But we set in the

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post bubble.

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Speaker 7: Contraction, we reset resettion such as that there's and the

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recovery is are weak.

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Speaker 2: But anyways, the whole thing shifts over such that most

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industry and commerce is not making much money and the

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gold sector is now.

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Speaker 7: The market forces behind this.

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Speaker 2: Carrier fascinating because you've had a great financial bubble in

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debt and in junk bond debt, and then of course

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junk bonds disappear, I.

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Speaker 7: Mean they just bankrupt, go ball, bust and default, whatever

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you want to call it.

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Speaker 2: And then you have a whole row of investment grade

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bonds that drop down into junks.

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Speaker 3: So the lower grade bond becomes.

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Speaker 2: A disaster, and so there's no place to go.

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Speaker 12: But what we like one in a storm, and if

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we get a seriousancial storm, an ideal position.

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Speaker 3: Even for equity people would.

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Speaker 11: Be three to four year good grade.

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Speaker 10: Corporate bonds, right because if you're in cash or cash equivalent, the.

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Speaker 1: Treasure build rate it's pretty.

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Speaker 2: Much treasure bill rate is about four thirty eight.

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Speaker 12: Now it's going to go down to zero again.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so you do want to be in short term

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instruments rolling over every month, forget about it.

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Speaker 11: But this is where we like a street to four

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year maturities and good great corporate bonds, so you're going

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to get some decent income and then at the three

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year or four year maturity they mature par.

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Speaker 3: So you get all your money back to speed.

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Speaker 2: So that is a very nice place to be for

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fixed income people.

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Speaker 8: And this when the storm comes in, it could be

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a wide disaster to stock market.

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Speaker 2: So even even equity people should be looking at this position.

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Speaker 3: Yeah makes sense to me.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's for sure, that's for sure. So how high

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is silver to go? We're going to see triple digit silver?

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Your prediction?

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Speaker 2: I think we can approach that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, Martin Armstrong said fifty and then corrected himself

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later and said seventy five.

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Speaker 3: So we haven't put a target that high on it yet.

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Just let'sten. We're on the trend, and the way we.

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Speaker 2: Work is when the excess has come in and then

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we make the notes.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, okay, well that's all right, that's all right.

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I want you to go out on a limb here, Bob.

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Speaker 11: Well, you know, we've got our list of.

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Speaker 2: Junior gold mining stars and we've been keeping that Okay,

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Well it was I think December twenty three when we

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put together that list, and there's been some very nice

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winners woo.

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Speaker 1: And it's on the basis that equity guys can buy.

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Speaker 2: The senior goals, yeah, and you're going to get average

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Middland goals will be a little better.

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Speaker 11: And then let's tag in, of course to the juniors.

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Speaker 2: And if you have a portfolio of say ten.

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Speaker 3: Or eleven as we're recommending, h well.

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Speaker 1: You can't get some terrific moves in these things.

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Speaker 9: Sure, they kind of the way the bottom of a

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bear market, and that was a long time ago for Gold. Yeah,

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and first of all the seniors bottom they move up,

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then the middle of the months bottom and move up,

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and then finally.

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Speaker 3: The play goes gets enough confidence to go for the juniors.

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So this is where we think it's important.

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Speaker 2: A good way of getting a closure in Gold.

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Speaker 3: Equities is the juniors.

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Speaker 5: And anybody can get in touch with us and we'll

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give you the list, all right, So just send me

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an email kl at Kerrie lets dot com. I'll make

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sure that Bob gets you the list. That list has

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really been paying off handsomely lately. I like the juniors

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and I won't name names, but ones that have uplisted

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to like the New York American or the Nasdaq. There

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aren't that many of them, but those stocks now the

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funds can put money in, and it's a whole new

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echelon of investor. Have you got a list of them?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we have, all right.

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Speaker 1: I think there's eleven in the list.

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Speaker 7: We updated every two or three months because some of

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them have moved in a couple of turkeys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well you're going to have that, I mean, yeah,

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that's why we're too.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I think the list is eleven. We thought it

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was a lucky number.

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Speaker 5: Are we done yet?

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Speaker 3: Or are we going to see?

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Speaker 2: Uh?

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Speaker 5: How much longer does this bull have to run? I mean,

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every good thing ends eventually.

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Speaker 12: Keep saying we're only a few years into.

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Speaker 3: A multi year bow market for gold stocks. Yeah, and of.

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Speaker 8: Course they will be influenced if we get a major

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hit in the stock market.

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Speaker 3: We knows, maybe next year.

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Speaker 2: The gold stocks will sell off with.

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Speaker 12: A major hit to the New York Stock Exchange.

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Speaker 3: All right, so you know it well.

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Speaker 2: And then there was a really good headline the other

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day about foreign investors rolling.

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Speaker 7: Into New York to buy the New York Stock Exchange,

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and of course that was the game.

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Speaker 3: In the summer of nineteen twenty nine. International money was

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coming into the.

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Speaker 7: New York Stock Exchange because they were big stocks acting

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very well liquidity and all that.

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Speaker 2: Sort of stuff.

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Speaker 8: And there's a little vignette about Radio Corporate America if

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we've got time for.

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Speaker 5: It period, Yeah, yeah, tell us, tell us please boy okay.

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Speaker 1: RCA. Radio Corporate America was the big.

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Speaker 10: High tech darling in the nineteen twenty nine market, and

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they were.

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Speaker 2: And then I had they went up to one hundred

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and twenty five dollars anyways, but the street was estimating

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street dollars to share earnings, and this was wonderful. And

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of course it didn't crash down to about a dollar

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and a half and.

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Speaker 3: Her innings went down to zero. But they eventually got

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back up.

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Speaker 2: To street dollars to share, and that was in nineteen

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fifty six with the Elvis Presley contract.

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Speaker 9: Really, and in nineteen twenty nine, who could predict Elvis

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press me?

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Speaker 1: It can't, you know, it's impossible.

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Speaker 14: So they the story changes.

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Speaker 2: So one of the oh here's another one, the eighteen.

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Speaker 6: Seventy tree bubble, the big high tech stocks was the

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Western Union Telegraph. So that was that was the high

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tech stuff, and even more exciting for Western Union if.

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Speaker 8: They were providing the ticker tape into all offices.

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Speaker 2: And brokerage offices and all that sort of stuff. So

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so Western Union got a way up there.

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Speaker 10: Now I can't remember the price, but I do remember

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the headline in September October of eighteen seventy three.

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Speaker 3: After that bubble was over. Wow, And in the week's.

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Speaker 2: Time it gave up forty.

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Speaker 3: And this was the big high tech darling.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, giving up for a week for a

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stock like that is devastating.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, this is true, all right, Bob.

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Speaker 5: Well, hey everybody, just if you want Bob's latest eleven stocks,

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and they've been performing quite well, shoot me an email

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kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. You can find Bob.

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Just do a Google search. He's all over the web.

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And hey, of course, ours is Financial Survival Network dot com.

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We're now using substack, have done away with our website altogether.

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It's working amazing. It handles mailing lists, it handles audio,

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it handles the video, and also is a great writing platform,

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which we've been writing a lot of things lately. And

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we'll write one about this. Appreciate you coming on as always, Bob.

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We will talk to you again soon.

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Speaker 1: Good deal, we had some fun game.

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Speaker 5: Always be well, my friend.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,