Speaker 1: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is way you talk today. I'm your host, Andy Lang.
It is Monday.
Speaker 2: We got a stacked football show. Of course, we're gonna
talk Monday Night football. Steve Merril is gonna break down
Chargers and Raiders. We got some props to go over.
Johnny's gonna join us with the Steam Report. We're gonna
recap the weekend. We're gonna look ahead to week three
and these opening lines. We're also going to take a
look at the Phillies and the Dodgers, and crack Man
is going to join us talk props and get his
thoughts on the weekend.
Speaker 1: We're also going to do some.
Speaker 2: Winners and losers in the props markets. We're gonna take
a look at where the books did well and where
the public did well. But we got to start with
our main man, Jiohnny and take a look at the
Steam Report. But while we're doing that, please hit the
like button, guys, you know it really helps the algorithm out.
Just a token of your appreciation, all right, Giohanny, interesting
day of games.
Speaker 1: That means you had a good day. I know that.
Speaker 2: Look back.
Speaker 3: And then currently number one in NFL regular season and
number one in college football as well. So, yeah, football
has been good. Lost last night with Minnesota, I got
a little worried there, but we got good Monday night.
I haven't put the package up, but ready to confirm
some plays there. And yeah, it's just been a really
good football season. And it's just so early, and this
is the time where we have data Andy, because here's
what I love. I woke up today and I dug
into college football because we're really doing a lot of
damage for college football. And you can still take such
advantage of this early season because a lot of these
teams are not going to be top five, top ten,
top twenty teams when the season's over. And a perfect
example of that is Miami. Miami right now is a
top five team. When I look at the college football rankings,
they are fourth, but in power ratings they're barely a
top twenty team. We're on the flip side of that
same coin. You have Alabama sitting at one in one
and they're ranked fourteenth in the nation. And right now,
there's only one team that would be favored over Alabama
on a neutral field. That's Ohio State power rating wise. Now,
some will argue, well, wait, maybe Oregon would be favored
over them, maybe George would, maybe the books would do that,
but power rating wise, what betting syndicates would look at,
because again, betting Cindy just aren't trying to balance their
risk like the book does. So the book may make
Alabama a dog to either of those teams, but rest
assure Alabama is who the sharp betters would line up on,
because power rating wise, they're very undervalued. And right now
I'm seeing a lot of that in college football, where
all you have to do is look at the top
you know, ten teams, and except for Texas, they're all
three and oh, that's all they're looking at. Who's sitting
at three? And oh? And you could take a lot
of advantage in college football right now because of that.
There's some teams that are ranked up there, like look
at Nodame, Notre Dame's day, oh and two right now,
Owen three never won a game yet, and yet there's
maybe four or five teams that would be favored over
Notre Dame on a neutral field. And yet I don't
think Notre Dames ranked twenty fourth twenty fourth in the nation.
And yet you'll you'll it'll be hard to find five
teams that would be favored over Notre Dame on a
neutral field. So it's a really good time to take
advantage of that recency bias, even in the NFL. In
college football, where you don't have a long enough season
like baseball for teams to progress and regress towards the mean,
it's still enough time for uh, those phony teams like
a Miami to come back down to life. Like I
love seeing that happen, and I think when it does settles,
I think I'll be proven right with with some of
these teams that I think are undervalued and overvalued in
college football.
Speaker 2: Right now, let's say a look at NFL. What was
your takeaway from the weekend. I'm assuming that it looks
like the teasers just keep hitting, had some scaries with.
Speaker 1: The money lines, things like that. So what was your
takeaway from Sunday's games?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, books did a really good job of protecting
against teasers because betters are really zeroing in on them.
In fact, I heard about drafting which was just offering
minus one twenty now going to minus one thirty minus
one thirty five, making it a negative B B teaser
now it's just unbeatable. I compared the black Jackets. Going
from three to two to six to five completely wipes
out any edge you may have had as a card counter.
Same thing with those Wong teasers. Once they go above
minus one twenty five do you no longer have the edge,
But you still could find some spots. And yesterday New
England and Indianapolis both at near the closing line and
the steam room. That's what we zeroed in on and
I released that teaser to subscribers. It's set up nicely.
It got the money. Obviously, it's nice when in cash
is but it just made sense. We got through three,
six and seven and they were low totals, so expected.
You know, we're scoring games. Points are always worth more.
I think it's too early to draw too many conclusions,
but we saw the overreaction to you know, Detroit's oh
they're dead team now lost their offensive coordinator, lost from
defensive coordinator. They came back, they righted the ship. Yesterday.
The Eagles still as legit as they come. What else
is thicking out? The Packers now look like the cream
of that division with Minnesota getting a loss, and uh yeah,
San Francisco is still able to win football games even
with injured players. So that was impressive on the San
Francisco side. And look at Arizona sitting at two and
oh as well. So yeah, still early, still early, but
NFL baby, NFL. And right now, real quickly at the
top of the guy that I trust most for his
NFL power ratings right now he has where's what he
send me? He just sent it to me. He has
the Baltimore would be favored on it based on his
power ratings over any team on a neutral field in
the NFL. He believes Baltimore is the most loaded team
power rating wise in the NFL. And yet they're sitting
at one and one. He's got Detroit top five and
they're sitting at one and one as well. So it's
funny to see that.
Speaker 2: We had a UFC theory carry over to the NFL.
You don't see that, But we had to fade the
baby theory. JJ McCarthy baby him and his.
Speaker 1: Girl baby on Thursday example. So the writing was on
the wall there with that game. Let's take a look
at it.
Speaker 2: Look ahead here week three. I see some numbers are
already on the move. The Colts, they're already up up
to that three. Looks like the Falcons are already up
to three and a half after last night's performance. And
then it's just to the surprise of nobody that lying
on Green Bay seems to me moving quite a bit.
Speaker 1: What are you what are you seeing on your end?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: And just how awful that's the perfect storm right there
for overboundy that was possibly on their boundy. Yeah, have
a Green Bay team that looks like they could do
nothing wrong, the Cleveland team that looks.
Speaker 1: Like terrible they can't do anything right teams.
Speaker 3: In the NFL, So not surprised to see green Bay climbing.
And this not forget they got to add that teaser protection.
So you're already seeing some of the Sharper books as
high as minus nine there, and that's kind of what
they're forced to do with some of those lines. You're
even seeing Seattle get that up through that key number
of seven from six and a half up to seven
and a half against the Saints, but not big, big
line movements based on the look aheads, just a little
recency bias what you'd expect, Like you said the Green Bay,
you expected that to move Atlanta coming off a nice win.
You expected that to move, and even Indianapolis moving against
you know, Tennessee not not surprising, but no huge, huge
moves just yet.
Speaker 2: Uh, let's go to Major League baseball. Don't forget about baseball.
We don't have a ton of games today, but we
do have some and uh, I see some pretty good
uh moves and some money coming in.
Speaker 1: What do you have for baseball?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: And the only thing I'm seeing in the accounts the
group that's still betting baseball is they're betting dogs. They're
betting dogs, and today they got five dogs. Immediately they
took on the overnights. They took nine o two Pittsburgh
plus one ten. They took nine oh five Cincinnati plus
one oh five, they took nine oh seven San Francisco
plus one twenty I believe, nine oh nine Philly plus
one fifteen, nine twelve Tampa plus one fifteen, and then
the under eight in Baltimore in the White Sox. Keep
in mind, limits are really low on these overnights. That's
why I don't like to release those two subscribers. But
a lot of it is manipulation, especially at a time
where recreational betters aren't really getting involved in baseball. Right now,
it's kind of the sharp betters versus the books, so
that the playing field is a little bit different until
the end of this month, as we approach playoffs and
must win scenarios, then you'll start getting recreational betters affecting
the market a lot more. But right now it seems
like it's the sharps versus the books when it comes
to baseball.
Speaker 1: What do you have up for Monday Night football tonight?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I actually like both games, man, and uh, just
trying to confirm uh, some premiums for subscribers. Again, I'm
a little more selective in the NFL than college football.
I think the margins are just a lot of slimmer
when it comes to the NFL. Those those lines are
just so tight. You gotta be selective, you gotta be cautious.
But my NFL package will be up. Not sure if
I'm gonna have baseball yet. Trying to get out ahead
in college football again. Had another winning college football week
so far. We won Week zero one, Week two one
winning Week two and looking the head into this week
turning some profit as well, and again just a busy week, man,
Just keep grinding, Like I said, right now, Number one
NFL regular season, number one college football and let's just
keep doing some damage. Head on over to wagetalk dot com.
I'll see if I can put out a free premium
for you guys today as well.
Speaker 2: Real quick question in the chat here, Robins, So our
dogs are dogs typically more advantageous near the end of
the MLB season.
Speaker 1: Is that kind of the trend or is it just
the s situations for today?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 3: No, No, absolutely great question. And because it's those banded
teams that we've already concluded are terrible in are hard bets,
so they're going to be undervalued and it's hard to
bet those teams. But I keep talking about this, Let's
not forget they're bringing up the youth. A lot of
those teams that know they ain't making the playoffs are
playing for absolutely nothing. They're bringing up young guys and
they may not have any value over replacement player, but
they're bringing in motivation, which you can't get this late
in the baseball season from a lot of these teams.
So I think that's why you're seeing a lot of
this dog money come in from the sharp betters, and
they're not afraid to bet these dogs in baseball, which
means you touched on in the beginning of the season.
The difference between you know, first place and last place
isn't all that great when the season finally ends. So yeah,
don't be afraid to bet those dogs late in the season.
Speaker 2: All right, great stuff, Giohnny, thank you, good luck tonight
on all your plays, and we'll see you later on
in the week, Johnny the Greek. Everyone, all right, let
us take a look at the week.
Speaker 1: That was in the NFL.
Speaker 2: I know we got two games tonight, but we have
to go to NFL Week two. Are we overreacting? So
let me know in the chat in the comments section,
are we overreacting? Here's the biggest reactions that I'm seeing
on social media and asking around. The Packers are the
best team in the league. Aaron Rodgers is washed, the
Bears are done.
Speaker 1: The Lions are back.
Speaker 2: I know all the Detroit I know all you Lions
fans in the Detroit office think the Lions are back.
Speaker 1: The Bengals have ruined.
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, JJ McCarthy is not an NFL quarterback, and
the day in Alexander Special Jalen Hurts has to pass
in order to make non Eagles fans happy.
Speaker 1: That's my vote.
Speaker 2: I don't understand why Jalen Hurts just keeps winning sixteen
games in a row.
Speaker 1: I believe that the one.
Speaker 2: That he started and finished, including a Super Bowl, and
yet people are mad that he doesn't pass enough for
their liking.
Speaker 1: So let me know what's the what's the biggest over real?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Paandasa's Bengals certainly wasting Burro. All right, there's a
lot to unpack here. Jalen Hurts his ask, he sucks.
I don't care what anyone says. And of course this
is from a Washington commander slash Redskins fan.
Speaker 1: Very well done there, very very well done.
Speaker 2: So Johnny Detroit. Of course, of course the Lions are back.
The Lions are back.
Speaker 1: That's the big overreaction.
Speaker 2: So let us know. Adam is in on the McCarthy one.
He could struggle telling you the fade the baby theory
was in full effect. JJ McCarthy had a baby Thursday
and then he had to play a professional primetime game
on Sunday. It was a it was a bad, bad situation.
So Bill says the Eagles are trash, but he's just
given Dan and I some garbage.
Speaker 1: All right, let's good stuff. Guys.
Speaker 2: Let's go to where the books were one, where the
public one, where the books won, the Pats and the
Dolphins on the everyone was on the Pats and Dolphins.
Under that won the books, love Nay forty and states.
Under that won the books a lot of money and
cowboys and minus the points.
Speaker 1: That line moved.
Speaker 2: Up, up, up, up up, and they get the win,
they get all the survivor picks through.
Speaker 1: But minus the points was not the right side. Where
the public one.
Speaker 2: Ravens minus the point, Rams minus the points, and the
Lions at minus the point. Whatever teasers were popular this
week looked like they hit survivor picks.
Speaker 1: Cowboys get a lot of them through. I believe Carmine
said that about twenty.
Speaker 2: Six percent of the picks were on cowboys in the
circuit contest. So that's where the books won, where the
public's won. And now let's take a look at props
and fantasy football winners and losers. Go back to Thursday.
Tucker Craft big winner. Now that Jayden Reid is out,
he's coming off a big game. Jayden reads out six
eight weeks. Tucker Craft was a big winner. Quinn Shawn
Judkins looks like he's got that backfield as the lead
in Cleveland, Kenneth Walker had a breakout game.
Speaker 1: He looked good.
Speaker 2: James Cook keeps scoring touchdowns and keeps looking good for
the Bills. The forty nine ers without Purty, their skill
position players did well and Alvin Kamara looked great throwing.
The Chris Lobby look good and Spencer Ratler was good.
Anyone that plays the Cowboys or the Bengals looks like
they're going to be having big weeks in fantasy football
and overs on the props. And the Dolphins passing game,
even though Tyreek looked upset at two, none of the
numbers suggest that they're a.
Speaker 1: Little bit back on track.
Speaker 2: Big props losers and fantasy football losers. Justin Fields and
the Jets. Justin Field's out with the concussion. He's questionable
for this week. The line looks like the books are
suggesting that he's not going to play this week. The
Titans could be a props in fantasy football wasteland.
Speaker 1: They cannot get anything going.
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson did not get much and that's two games
in a row to start the season that his unders
have hit. Brian Thomas Junior a lot going on there
in Jacksonville. Yikes, you're not betting on him anytime soon.
Tyrone Tracy may have lost his job as the starter
came Scataboo looked pretty good, was running better than Tyrone Tracy.
So those are your fantasy and props winners and losers.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's bring in.
Speaker 2: Bill crack Man when you get his thoughts on NFL
Week one, we'll talk in some props tonight, Bill, Happy Monday.
Speaker 1: How was your weekend?
Speaker 4: Hey? Good? Uh? You know, Andy, I got my We're
gonna need a bigger boat shirt on for all the
volume of plays that that Gianni has. I see something
O the day you gave it like a hundred plays
in football season already, I'm like, what one hundred plays?
You know? He'll be honest with you. I do bet
a lot of plays myself, so I do understand. It's
just some uh, you know, people gonna get frustrated when
you give him that many plays sometimes, but no, but
he he's great. I'm uh, I'm a big Gianni fan
now that that I joined Wadger Talk and I like
him talking. I like I like to hear what stuff
from what he has going on. I never really knew
much about him until I came over here, and about
his volume. I play high volume. I play so many
plays that you know, apps go down to zero and
I have to run around and re and I think, well,
I got plenty of money there, and then sure enough
I will not have enough money in some of these apps.
So it gets pretty crazy throughout the season. So I
definitely get it. But you know, this is the second
you know, even though I had a winning weekend plus
seven and a half units, I still get pissed off
and talk about some things like it's a second year
in a row that Burrow went down and Browning came
out and beat me. It's just amazing getting three and
a half points that you know, I'm winning most of
the game, actually covering most of the game, and there's
just so many times that that these things happen. They
just pissed me off. But anyway, going forward, I do
have Cincinnati not to make the playoffs. Now, I think
it's still a good bed. You could play some of
these places like MGM Caesars. They let you bet as
the season goes on. A matter of fact, I love
spots like that. I think Draft Can is a FanDuel too, also,
so you can bet season wins, will team makes up
make a playoff every Sunday night Monday morning, they put
the new lines up because and take into consideration, of course,
their current record. I love that because some teams are
you know, overvalued and playing over their head. Like a
perfect example right now, who's betting anything anti green Bay? Well,
I'll tell you right now, the books know that. So
you're gonna pay a tax. If you're gonna bet green
Bay to make the super Bowl green Bay overseason wins,
green Bay to make the playoffs, you're gonna bet. You're
gonna lay at tax on all the Now. I'm not
saying not to bet that green Bay is not gonna
make the playoffs, because they're they're they're they're probably going to.
But what I'm saying is you're gonna be laying too
much because you're not the only one that thinks that
every swing and you know what thinks the same thing
that watched the games over the weekend and watched last
week's game. So there is some overreactions week to week
and as you'll see that, like the Giants game. Let's
give you a perfect example, Giants game. So the Giants
last week looked terrible. This week, they had so many
chances to win the game. Wilson came out like he
was Joe Montana and his prime unbelievable. Just as people
were calling for his head after week one, they wanted
Darton and they wanted the kid in there. Get ready
to get rid of this antique, this, this, and that
they were calling for his head. New York is just
like Philly. They don't put up with too much stuff
too long. You go, you get booed after a week. Anyway,
So the Giants almost won that game, and that would
have been bad for like Kelly and Vegas. She had
it in her Survivor if you told me, but I
was rooting against it because you know, I'm in the
one hundred thousand dollars contest. I have so many entries
or partnerships in the thousand dollars Survivor. So I actually
had needed Denver. I'm sorry, Devin. That was week one.
Week two was Baltimore. Baltimore on literally all my picks,
so I kind of went all in on Baltimore. Now
you can't use them again, though, So you can't use
one of the best teams in football. It's not the
best team right now again for the rest of the year,
so I was rooting against Dallas. There was rooting for
them to probably get knocked out. Even though one of
my partners I partners on eight entries. I have to
just remember this stuff. So I'm partners on eight entries
with some guys and one of his picks was Dallas.
So but I hate to be unfair to him on
his four four of them are together. There was so
much a percentage, like you said, Carmid said this morning
of people on Dallas, it would have been worth it
for me. I feel long term if if Dallas would
have lost, especially the Grandissimo. So yeah, these contests are
really interesting, lots of sweat involved in them. And you know,
you put your pick in Saturdays, and you know, Andy,
I want to tell you, even though I live here
in Vegas, real tough sometimes to remember. I have my
alarm set to put the picks in every week on
my iPad and my iPhone had my alarm set because
if you forget something like that, oh my.
Speaker 5: God, it's only you know, I have a third of
that entry not only costs myself thirty three thousand, costs
my two partners, so it's not a bad idea to
get a proxy.
Speaker 4: Went to dinner last night with a proxy. And I'm sorry,
I don't know this proxy is service. But it's Scott,
my buddy. Scott got a great service. And uh, he's
Vegas horse pulls on Twitter. He's got a great proxy
service and and he said, hes Bill, I'll do him
every week for you. I'll remind you every week. That's
my business. So you imagine, but you're you're I'm battling,
going through bets, making tons of bets throughout Saturdays, making
some halftime bets. And you know, I don't bet a
lot of things day of the game pre flop, but
because the line is so efficient. But it's not a
FCS which only comes up then. And that's another thing. Andy.
You know, I won't do what a lot of other
people do. I won't sell a game that it's only
available at hard Rock in Atlantic City or DraftKings only,
or fan duel only, or you know whatever spots these
places A lot of them don't even take. They don't
take my bets. I'm not allowed to play at hard
Rock well not, I say, not a looted. They limited
me to a dollar bet three sixty five of them.
Maybe you know these places I want, so these guys don't,
let's sell. I don't see any not a wager talk.
This is taking shots at other people in the industry.
They sell. Okay, this is available at Bette Rivers minus three,
the entire markets three and a half.
Speaker 2: I want.
Speaker 4: I supposed to do bet the three and a half.
Now I get the loss while you guys get the push. No,
it's not fair. I can pad my record by doing
that easily. I want to give out an obtainable line.
I think it's very very fair and very very You
have to do that. First of all, you're selling picks.
You're already up against it. These people have to overcome
the juice, overcome the picture, the pick fees. It's not
fair to give them one or two places to bet at.
You want to give them an obtainable line.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I've it's been a long time since I've
been allowed to bet at Bette Rivers and Fanatics.
Speaker 1: And ESPN bet.
Speaker 2: And although maybe it's a good thing, right, Yeah, you
have a prop for us tonight Monday Night Football, anything
you're you're liking, I do.
Speaker 4: I just want to make sure it's twenty and a half.
Still good, Okay, I'm looking at bet MGM's line Baker
Mayfield under twenty and a half minus one thirty. So
Baker Mayfield completions under twenty and a half now listen.
I'm only going by bet MGM because they sponsored one
of my shows. So I'm sure you could shop shop
this around. Though you know he took a lot more
deep shots last week instead of instead of like thinking dunction.
Let me tell you, Texas really has a good defense here,
the Texans. So Baker Mayfield under twenty and a half
completion shop that around, guys. I'm only giving you one
line here. It should have been a little more prepared
to give you the best line, but there you go.
I don't do I'm gonna give you a line that's
obtainable somewhere. And you know, I know some of the
places here in Vegas will probably have a better line.
I'm sure maybe the Fandels and DraftKings of the world
may have a better line. Yeah again, even this morning,
Like I bet a game before at Circa, I can
only better at Circa minus. Oh oh, I know, I
bet plus four and a half on the Rams so
I bet the plus four and a half. L I
can't give that out to clients plus three and a half,
even though four is not a key number. That's not fair.
And I've bet a good amount of money on this
game plus four and a half on the rams, and
you know, I just I can't give that out. It's
not fair to give it out three and a half.
So I just wanted to say, like, I don't know.
I guess I'm done going off on rants and stuff
like that. I kind of get mad. I had a
winning weekend and I'm still in a pissed off mood.
I come in, I'll tell you why things always get
me mad. There's so many moving parts to our business.
I have friends that don't understand betting. They they're friends
of mine. I had friends of mine for decades. Let's say, yeah,
I don't follow nobody, but I bet my own stuff.
I lose on my own stuff when I don't want to.
I want. I want to bet my own stuff. Like
they know what I bet. They know all these these
bets I make long term, you know, win five six percent,
whatever it may be. And yet yeah, they or or
or andy. I have a friend that he listens to
the show too. I'm sorry that I'm not gonna mention
his name. He's gonna watch the show, and I don't want,
don't mean to throw him under the bus. So here's
a guy that comes to town, comes to Vegas for
weeks at a time, and he has sessions losing, playing reels,
the sucker reels that hold ten, twelve to fifteen percent.
H he'll lose five hundred to a thousand. Maybe a
thousand's a bad day, though, but let's he'll lose five
hundred dollars in a session. You now, just take a break,
go to his room. He gets all my games. Everything's
gonna move our direction. We're gonna have closing line value
on ninety five percent of the games. That's one hundred
dollars or fifty dollars. Like, I don't get that. You're
you're you're you're willing to lose five hundred dollars on
something that's minus twelve percent and I'm plus five percent
and you only about one hundred on a four hour
of three hour event. But I'm not blaming him. It's
the human condition, it's the mindset. And oh my god,
I don't I don't bet five hundred dollars on a game,
but you're willing to lose. Well, but that's not my intent.
I intend to win playing slots or putting one hundred dollars.
You know, you're touching your cash. So when you're touching
your cash and you're giving that up compared to actually
pressing a button and betting on credit maybe or betting
on post uff, you know, it's so much easier to do.
And you see, you see it in front of you,
and you say, wow, I have a credit line of
ten thousand dollars. Oh my god, I can't bet five
hundred dollars a game. I'm getting in trouble. But the
cash you can get rid of, which is more important
to you. Normally, I have to worry post It's just
it's just a normal thing. They'll believe it or not.
I see it all the time. I have lots of
friends that are sports betters casually, and like I said,
my one guy back in Philly, good guy, big money guy,
loses his own money. It's RCT. I don't want your games.
I'll bet the oppositeiety man. I don't care. I do
my own stuff. Yeah, and he loses. Everybody lose. It
gets destroyed every year, by the way, destroyed. Yeah, looking
for you guys, press, looking for loans, Press one. I'm
not joking, looking for loans and everything. By the end
of like week seven.
Speaker 2: Well the number of the week for me was nineteen
nineteen people didn't didn't put a pick in in the
Circus Survivor. Wow, these were these were people that won
in week one. Like if you miss week one, okay,
you forgot that there.
Speaker 1: Was a proxy forgot about one.
Speaker 2: But to win in week one, to not put one
in in week two, that's just uh, you know, I
didn't think of that.
Speaker 4: You're right, they played week one. So the twenty four
people that didn't put their picks in week one, you
can give them a little patch twenty four thousand extra
for USh in the pool. And then nineteen people week two.
They don't have that much of an excuse. I didn't
think of that part.
Speaker 1: They have no excuse. If you made a pick in
week one, I don't know.
Speaker 2: Maybe tragically nineteen people passed away and we don't know
about it.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 1: More. What do you have of for clients that way?
Speaker 4: You talk bill Andy again, you think I'm prepared no,
I won seven and a half units till last week.
I never even went to the I know you guys
are out of your minds though, you like sell my
weeks for like ridiculous amounts of money compared to what
I used to always sell them for. But hey, I
get it. We were we're you know, we're grinding winners
out here. I'm going to my to my page. You
think the guys that wager talk and put my picture
any lower? I mean, really, you got me down by
the bottom. And I don't get it.
Speaker 1: I yell constantly, rotating.
Speaker 6: I don't want to constantly.
Speaker 4: I don't want to rotate. I get five to ten
million views a month on socials. I bring a lot
of people to wager talk. Don't let me f and rotate,
you know. Anyway, Yeah, now, so I know I had,
I had. I know that. That says that right there,
Red Hot two percent play tonight, Jesus, All right there
it is fifteen bucks. Wow, crack, fifteen dollars place. The
world's coming to an end. But anyway, yeah, there's there's
there is some stuff there. Get my, get my weeklies,
get my I'll just tell you if you want to
win long term, you get my monthly package or even
contact them on a wager. Talk will give you a
good deal on a three month or you know which
just covers the most of the football season. We're gonna win,
We're gonna make money. We grind out. This is real stuff.
I am real. I bet real stuff. I'm firing. So
I'm betting lots of money, lots of ex bets on things.
But I give to you guys first, I actually put up.
I don't front round my customers. I don't go and
bet minus three and then you guys try to bet
at the same time, and now's three and a half. Bullshit.
I don't do that. I don't know if I'm out
to curse. I just cursed.
Speaker 1: You're fine, Bill, anyway, You're fine.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 6: That's not enough.
Speaker 4: I've said it enough rants for me, Andy. Sorry.
Speaker 2: I love I love our weekly Monday rants. That's why
I love about you.
Speaker 4: Bill.
Speaker 2: You put out a bet like me, You bet it
with your own money. There's no nonsense. You'd literally put
your money where your mouth is. So thank you very much,
have a great Monday, and we'll see again. Yes, Bill
crack Man, Monday, Monday right right at twelve twenty. You're
gonna get some rants here every single Monday, so that's great.
We mentioned that there are bets that we make with
and we bet with our own money, and I have
two of them up tonight. We have a props two
pack you're gonna get. My two best bets on the
board were fourteen and eleven so far in the NFL
through Week two. Pretty happy with that. Looking for two
winners tonight. So if you're betting NFL football, this is
the way to do it. These aren't bailout bets. This
isn't like let's get all of our money back because
we had a terrible Sunday. These are just two bets
that we bet. They're part of our portfolio. These have
been locked in for a few days, but the lines
are still very strong on them. So two best bets.
It's up just one price WT Dot Buzz slash Al
one in each game. So we cast first one. We're
in on the second one. Let's have a two and
o night.
Speaker 1: WT Dot Buzz slash Al.
Speaker 2: All right, let's do all the world. We got some
free plays here. We're gonna give out a couple of
props that were pretty good leans here and then of course,
we got a baseball play for everybody.
Speaker 1: So let's start with this Buccaneers Texan games. I'm gonna
go with c J.
Speaker 2: Stroud over twenty one and a half completions. This is
a Tampa Bay defense that allowed two point nine yards
per rush last week, so the way to attack them
is through the air. Pennix had twenty seven completions against Tampa.
I just I'm not a believer in this Texans backfield.
Nick Chubb is the number one, so if the Texans
are gonna move the ball, it's got to be with
c J.
Speaker 1: Stroud.
Speaker 2: I think their passing game gets on track a bit
this week, so take Stroud over his completions. Chargers and
the Raiders Ashton genty looked bad in Week one, and
I think they're gonna still need a few more weeks
to figure this out. This is a new this is
a new coach, this is a new running back, this
is everything is new here. So I'm gonna take under
ninety one and a half rushing plus receiving. He had
thirty eight yards rushing to receiving last week. And the
Chargers were good against the Kansas City running backs. And
I don't know if that's saying that that much. But
I believe in this defense, and ninety one and nine
rushing plus receiving seems.
Speaker 1: Like quite a bit.
Speaker 2: I want to take both because I'm not sure if
he's gonna be bad in both categories or if he's
gonna be good in just one category. So I think
he's gonna struggle in at least one of them. And
that gets us under go to Giants at the Diamondbacks.
Take Diamondbacks over four and a half on their team total.
Tang is going for the Giants. He has a seven
point five to four ERA, gave up four earned runs
in four innings in his last start. Diamondbacks over this
total in four straight games. So let's take a look
at Diamondbacks over four and a half on the team total.
All right, all right, so Colin says everyone is on
gent unders worrying me.
Speaker 1: Now, this did the card.
Speaker 2: This is an official play if just giving you some leans,
Mars is the Texans offensive line. It is offensive, but
like I said, this is a Tampa Bay rush defense
that is very very good. So appreciate all the feedback,
all the comments.
Speaker 1: Like I said, these are leans, These are leans. The
two best bets that I have that are out.
Speaker 2: Those are the ones that I've locked in and bet
with my own money. All right, let's bring in Steve Merrill.
We got to do a little bit of a deep
dive here in the Chargers and the Raiders and the
Talk Phillies and the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: Steve, Happy Monday.
Speaker 7: How are you speaking of rotating? We need to rotate
so my w isn't covered with my name here like
I'm sponsoring Nike.
Speaker 6: Here.
Speaker 7: We gotta do the selfie flip? How much would that
mess every just get.
Speaker 1: Oh, we just get rid of the games.
Speaker 7: No, can you imagine if is on the other side
of my shoulder. After five years of people seeing me
like this, my my half cat two background, my sleeve
as I call it, it was like, put some shelves
up and maryw It's been on my to do list
for five summers.
Speaker 6: Guess what, it's September. No shelves for another ten months
of shelves. I got a lot of memorability that some
cabinets within hands reach.
Speaker 1: And you're not doing it during football season. You're just not.
There's not too many projects that get done.
Speaker 7: So I was supposed to take en Zone live yesterday
Andy and I got tied up with even during the
day on Sunday, but I heard you guys slammed it
me and congratulations.
Speaker 6: I kept seeing the number is increase on that. That
was pretty cool live.
Speaker 1: The live bets were really really good. The ones that
we made in game were really good. We did have
a funny one.
Speaker 2: We had a we had a running back to go
over and he was He got over by a half
yard and then he got tackled for a five yard
loss and he didn't get any more.
Speaker 1: Carries we had. We had to play the one and lost.
And that's a week in a round.
Speaker 6: Did that last Sunday Night? To yourself? To yourself with
Derrick Henry last week? My goodness, that was it?
Speaker 1: Derek Henry and Travis.
Speaker 6: Ets within six days? It happened seven days, it happened
twice to you. That's that's hard to do. Congratulations, Thank you.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna get to Chargers and Raiders, just kind
of an overview. What's your takeaway through what we've seen
in a couple of weeks in NFL.
Speaker 7: Yes, we have two games tonight, of course, and we're
gonna take a little bit of a glance at the
late game Chargers Raiders. Just a quick reminder, I did
do a two for one double header video earlier this week.
It's still live or available right now. Waiter Talk TV
Bucks Texans at seven Eastern Chargers Raiders who had deep
dive to both of these games. And what I did
use in this late game not end the video. I'm
gonna give it to you here as well. Is the
over forty six and a half Now shop around. We
do see some forty sevens out there in a lot
of spots. It opened as low as forty four and
a half earlier last week. I did not agree with
that opener. The sharp money came in on the over,
and I think that is the play. Still forty five
a little bit key. Forty six is what we call
it dead number, but forty seven, forty eight or key numbers,
So that forty six and a half is a nice price.
Still like it at forty seven or less with the
over here, And the main reason is because both teams
are going to throw the ball. Yes, they put up
twenty and twenty seven points and wins last week, but
if you look at the stats, neither team ran the
ball with any success. Both rushing defenses were successful last week.
Both teams threw for over three hundred yards. Both teams
gave up almost two hundred and fifty plus yards passing.
Let's not overthink it, no pun intended. I like the
over here between the Chargers and Raiders over the forty
six and a half to forty seven tonight, and something
else is gonna be interesting to see, Andy is if
the Chargers have a letdown after that Brazil trip, upset
one of the Kansas City Chiefs, and they have another
big divisional game next week at home against the Broncos.
They're real home opener. They won their home game in Brazil.
Now they have a divisional Monday night game, and then
they get Denver at home next week. So it's hard
to say a Monday night divisional game in Vegas could
be a letdown spot, but it very well might be.
And this is sitting on that key number of three
and a half right now. Looks like it might come down.
So if you like the Raiders, you grab the three
and a half. Now, if you like the Chargers weight,
you might find the minus three at kickoff. But I
think the public is leading that way, so most likely
this goes off at three and a half tonight.
Speaker 2: Let's take a look at MLB, and then I want
to get your reaction on what we seen in Week two.
So let's do the Phillies and the Dodgers. Here a
great pitching matchup. This is a it's words for Phillies,
she and for Dodgers interested. I think the obvious play
is under. I don't know if that's where you're looking
or not, but I'm sure the books are aware of this.
How do you break this game down?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm moving towards the side in this one, but
I do want to talk about that Telly. You mentioned
it's at eight and a half, and that's a pretty
low total for a Dodgers game in general, or Phillies
and Dodgers games in general. These are two of the
better offensive teams in baseball, so if either one of
these pitchers has an off night, you know, you might
sneak to that key number of nine. But I'm gonna
stay away from the total. I do think the side
is the better play. I like the Dodgers in this
one for a couple of reasons. I do think they
actually have the pitching match up here, and they're a
slight home favor, and I ever go I get the
Dodgers at Homelane a dollar fifteen.
Speaker 6: It's obviously going to make my short list.
Speaker 7: Yes, I'm well aware Dan Alexander, our producer, that the
Phillies are four and a half games ahead of the
Dodgers this year, and yes the Phillies have won nine
of their last eleven. But I keep waiting for that
buysign from the Dodgers that're just kind of chronically underachieved
all season, and I think we might be seeing that
right now. After the five straight losses at Pittsburgh and Baltimore,
they finally got on the winning track in that final
Baltimore game last week before heading back home. They have
now won six of their last seven games. And what
I really like is that the offense has come to
life on that three games sweep against the Rockies to
start the home stand nineteen to three, and then the
three games against the Giants this past weekend, twenty four
runs scored, fourteen allowed. So that's another reason probably not
a lot of value under eight and a half, even
though I do think both pitchers will have a solid
outing tonight. I like Sheann short price with the Dodgers.
I think they're starting to trend upward. Should be a
great game to night. By the way, this is the
late game at ten o'clock EAS show on MLB Network.
I would lean towards the Dodgers as a small home
favorite minus a dollar fifteen. And they've also hit lefties
fairly well at home this season.
Speaker 2: Also, all right, Steve, we're gonna pull up a graphic
here week two. Are we overreacting? Which one do you
like the best? Or do you want to add one here?
So we got Packers are the best team in the league.
Aaron Rodgers is washed, the Bears are done, and the
Lions are back. The Bengals have ruined Joe Burrow. JJ
McCarthy is not an NFL quarterback, and Dan had me
put in there. Jalen Hurts has to pass in order
to make non Eagles fans happy. He just keeps winning
despite the fact he's not throwing. You want to add
one or which one there was?
Speaker 7: So this quick story last year, I'd never done fantasy
football ending until I was fifty years old last year
and so high school buddies got me to kill yeah,
and it was actually and I didn't know what I
was doing. I did the draft, you know, and kind
of did okay. And then the first week I was
coaching a baseball game that Sunday and didn't have the
password on my phone for ESPN, so I wasn't able
to make any changes and I won. So I didn't
bother logging in weeks two, three, four, apparently the I
had Jalen Hurts. That's where this story is going. Oh okay,
and I had the Eagles kicker. I had one of
the receivers. I forget who it was, but anyway, I
stacked them, you know, because I knew enough to stack them,
and you know, and I thought everyone made the playoffs playoffs.
I thought everyone made the playoffs in fantasy football. And
then I thought you fought it out for the final
four weeks. So one of my buddies nicely told me
after week five that, Merrill, you need the log in
when half of the team has a bye week.
Speaker 6: So I left over.
Speaker 7: I lost by thirty. Had I just flipped out the Eagles,
I would have won by like fifty. I missed the
playoffs by one spot. I would have been in the playoffs.
I don't think I would have won it. So this year,
I was like, Yeah, somebody else can have my spot.
But where I'm going with that is Jalen Hurts is
having a nice fantasy season because you get more points
I think for running than passing. So Dan Alexander fantasy
guys loved Jalen Hurts running the ball and getting touchdowns
like he did in Week one against the Cowboys. I
thought a massive overreaction before this week was that Thursday
Night's game between Not My Washington Commanders and the Packers
was an NFC Championship preview. With that said, the Packers
might be in the NFC Championship.
Speaker 6: They have looked good. Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 7: Everyone thought he was back after Week one, so now
he's not back, So that might be an overreaction. We
shall see. I think he's gonna be very mediocre this year.
I think Week one he was focused. You heard him
say it, Andy like he won that game against Pittsburgh.
So I think last week was a letdown spot. That
yesterday was a letdown spot. Let's see how he looks
in the next couple of weeks. The Bears are always
done until they're not done. I did think they would improve,
but they got a new coach Bears could be a
play on team in a month or so. You know,
you always have to look at the NFL in college football,
like four weeks. I would be careful with teams that
are struggling right now. I thought the Vikings are the
big takeaway that was the one that's not an overreaction.
I was worried about McCarthy last week against Chicago. They
trailed the first three quarters of that game. Be John
Robinson had more yards yesterday than the Vikings offense last
night total. So I think there's some problems in Minnesota.
And let's talk about the Vikings real quick, and you
talk about a hilatious scheduling spot. They played Monday night football,
they played Sunday night football, they played this week, and
then they have two games in England and Ireland the.
Speaker 6: Next two weeks.
Speaker 4: What do we do with that?
Speaker 7: I mean, there's got to be a fade opportunity there.
And then you've got a new quarterback on top of that. Yeah,
there were fourteen and fourteen last year.
Speaker 6: Let's just say that.
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy just had a baby on Thursday.
Speaker 6: Good for him.
Speaker 1: So how much can we add or play JJ McCarthy.
Let's have a baby rights we start the NFL season.
That's bad planning on their part.
Speaker 6: Yes, I guess it was. Well, what's the most faction?
Speaker 7: I would say the vikings is not an overreaction, I
guess is where I'm going with that one.
Speaker 6: Yeah, uh are there are the Bengals?
Speaker 2: Have they ruined Joe Burrow? They can't put an offensive
line behind it? How many injuries can this guy have before.
Speaker 7: He's you know, so Andy, if I told you this
year they were going to play him like the entire
preseason for the first time ever, and he was injured,
you would have thought he came in August, right, you know,
because they didn't remember he's been out the last two years.
No preseason. The Bengals started zeroing three last year. They
didn't want that this year, so they were heavy favorites
in the preseason, playing their starters, playing Burrow. Barely beat
the Browns in Week one. That was a fade the
public play we won with in the video with Cleveland.
And then last week yesterday, I was two and one Saturday,
two and one Sunday, and I was pissed, like Krakenberg.
I was pissed because I should have been six and
oh Head, Ohio State. They didn't cover. They dominated the game.
And then we had Jacksonville yesterday and I've got a
screen shot on the penal yet very brutal.
Speaker 1: So that's a brutal loss.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I would think the Bengals are in some trouble.
Not an overreaction. Well maybe, yeah, not an overreaction. I
think a lot of those are not overreactions, to be honest.
Maybe we play the Bears in a month, maybe that's
the overaction. And Rogers that might be an overreaction as well.
We'll find out more than next week or two.
Speaker 1: We do a lot.
Speaker 2: We're on the Live Sunday Show. We were we were
watching that Jags game with you, Yes, absolutely so, Carmine
was there going nuts for the both of you. So
all right, it is Monday, Monday Night Football. We got baseball, Steve,
what do you have up for clients?
Speaker 7: So we have a new special this week which I
haven't released you. I'm gonna do a lot of videos today.
By the way, the Thursday Night Video Prime last year
we did really well, hit over seventy percent, had both
the Packers in the under. I'm gonna record this Thursday
Night game here right after this with Dan Alexander, hopefully
get it up nice and early. I know people love
those Thursday videos, so I'll have this promo code all week.
But it's first for you, Andy Lang SM sixty nine.
SM sixty nine a full week, seven days, all sports,
all access for just sixty nine, dude, and that gets
you baseball and football.
Speaker 6: Don't forget baseball.
Speaker 7: Last year we finished on a fifty seven and twenty
eight run through the World Series. So don't sleep on
September and October baseball, and obviously don't sleep on the
NFL and college football. SM six' nine gets you the
next seven days and nights of all sports all access
for just sixty nine. Dollars steve Merrillwager talk dot com
and also check out the bonus free Play Giants diamondbacks
is up there right now For Monday Giants dbacks free
play and get there quicker with, SHORTCUT Wt Dot Buzz
SLASH sm great.
Speaker 1: Stuff Steve, merrill how'd coaching go? Yesterday was it just?
Practice or do you have?
Speaker 6: Game so Last sunday couldn't make it at.
Speaker 7: Baseball This sunday had travel, Basketball Next sunday, Baseball BUT
i might see you the Following, Sunday september twenty. Eighth
But i'm not going to schedule. Myself, MAN i just
never know what's going. On it's good, though you, know
we're watching, football watching, baseball coaching. Basketball it's good to keep,
it keep the juices flowing and keep it keep it.
Speaker 1: Fresh, Right, WELL i promise you did not Miss laurence
screaming into the. Microphone ask you how's that?
Speaker 4: Going is he? Doing all?
Speaker 1: Right it's a lot of.
Speaker 2: Fun live bets are. Great we do need to figure
out a volume. Control Uh and he.
Speaker 6: Just know you mean actual like like loudness.
Speaker 4: VOLUME i got.
Speaker 2: You, oh it's it's, insanity like just. Screaming and but
but he doesn't tell us what he's screaming. At like
he doesn't be, like, oh big play in The ravens.
Speaker 6: Game you just you don't even know. What, yeah and
you're like what what That's that's How wednesday afternoon is
in the press. Household so it might not matter what games.
Speaker 1: On, true it was.
Speaker 2: GREAT i had The cowboys uh in In, survivor and
so Did PRES's, wife.
Speaker 1: So we both got to. Walk we got to watch
That cowboys.
Speaker 6: Game and what About Cardinals. Cardinals you, know we're up
twenty seven hard or.
Speaker 7: Whatever but The panthers outstad of them dominated that, game
and we did get a back door, there BUT i
don't feel LIKE i was on the wrong, side So
i'm not going to count that as a lucky. Win but,
yeah the two most public plays this, Week andy and
my video Were Cowboys cardinals on the point. Spread so
you can only imagine other than The ravens being a huge,
favorite those were probably the three big survivor, picks and
two of them could have definitely have gone.
Speaker 2: Down yeah you, NOTICE i mean this is just this
is true of anybody that that bets on sports WITH
us public, Whatever, like, yeah you ever noticed when you
win off of a back door, cover you're, like, oh, yeah,
yeah it was, great but whenever you lose on a
back door, cover you're, like that's, nonsense that's so.
Speaker 6: WELL i felt that way.
Speaker 7: YESTERDAY i was like The, cardinal The, cardinal The panther
cover got me back for The jags. Cover THEN i
dug into the box score more AND i mean That
cardinals didn't dominate the game as much as you might.
Think but, no you're exactly. Right we've talked about that
before bad. BEATS i love the bad beats segments.
Speaker 6: That we used to do. Here they do In Sports.
Speaker 7: Center fifty percent of the people benefit from a bad
beat mathematically long. Term sure, true but you don't remember
them only because once, again losing hurts one and a
half times more than. Winning in the financial, Markets i'm
sure it's same with the sports betting. Market And i'll
leave you with a quote real, quick Because bill brought
this up AND.
Speaker 6: I pulled this up for.
Speaker 7: You you JUST i want to a guy Named, edsecota
a great trend follower momentum trader from the seventies and.
Eighties ed, said win or, lose everybody gets what they
want out of the. Market some people seem to like to,
lose so they win. Big they so they win by losing.
Money now that might seem a little counterintuitive to, people
but when he was talking about his buddies that don't
want his, picks want to.
Speaker 6: Do it on their, own it made me think of that.
Speaker 7: QUOTE i don't know people necessarily want to, lose but
they definitely want to have the sensation of doing it
themselves and being. Right people want to be, right and
it's not about making money for eighty to ninety percent
of sports. Betters and that's why ninety five ninety seven
percent of sports betters lose every, season because if they
really wanted to make, money they'd be in the live
chat now like our smart, viewers and they'd be Following Andy,
Lang Steve, merrill everybody else At wait To talk dot,
com or at least at a minimum.
Speaker 6: Getting our free picks right every. Day we have a
free pick on our page with.
Speaker 7: Analysis so check yourself before you wreck yourself THIS nfl,
Season Steve.
Speaker 1: Merrill, everyone thank you very. Much good luck on your place.
Speaker 2: Tonight keep keep going on with that coaching man's that's
really really awesome of, You. Steve so anytime you can't
make it on a show because you're, coaching fine with.
Speaker 1: US i have to pull up a comment. Here teaserville.
Teaser roger has Today's teaserville.
Speaker 2: Teaser tampa plus eight and a half under forty eight
and a, Half vegas plus nine over forty and a.
Half there you, Go Nuby, Dan roger was nice enough
to give you A teaserville teaser just for.
Speaker 1: You it was very very nice of. You thank you very, Much.
Roger so all, right, guys it's going to do it for.
Speaker 2: Us hit the like button and don't forget to leave
a comment. Below tell us what's your favorite overreaction For
week two in THE. Nfl give us the best bet
in the comment. Section thank you so much for joining.
Us two best bets are up on my page for.
TONIGHT wt dot bus lash al plays THAT i have
already bet with my own, money you should as.
Speaker 1: Well thank you very.
Speaker 2: Much we're gonna do it again tomorrow And, tuesday same,
time same, place Noon. Eastern good luck on your bets
tonight and take care