Speaker 1: What's up, y'all? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do always start the show
by being transparent, And yesterday it was a good day
for myself. Four and two overalls is what I had
there yesterday. Losers on James Madison, loser on Trey Young
over six and a half assists that plus money. The
four winners were Lakers, Nuggets under two forty one and
a half, Piston Spurs under two twenty nine and a half,
Warriors plus eight and a half, and Mavericks plus seven
and a half. So nice day yesterday. See if we
can do it again here today being no good to
be back with you. How's everything on your end?
Speaker 2: Things are good?
Speaker 3: SKI three and three yesterday combined college hooping NBA small
loss because my one college play I rated a little
bit stronger than the others. That was Middle Tennessee State
team total overs seventy five and a half only got
to seventy three. Also lost on the Northern Iowa team
total over seventy and a half got to sixty eight.
And there was an NBA loser, and there was Phoenix
team total.
Speaker 2: Now for the.
Speaker 3: Wins, Miami turned some more garbage into gold with Miami
against Brooklyn team total went way over and a couple
of college winners were the Sacred Heart game full game
total over and South Florida team total over against Memphis
last night. The last two they went a Sacred Heart
one hundred and eleven point second half between those two teams,
Sacred Heart and Iowa helped out big time, and of
course South Florida was never in doubt. So we get
to today, a huge board, huge weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to it. We have I think,
what is it, six seven games maybe something like that,
but we'll start at the top heat and Hornets open
up minus five now see eight eight and a halfs
even out there. Total came down a little bit from
two thirty and a half to two twenty nine and
a half. As far as injuries are concerned, Salowan is
out for Hornets, Miami, Wiggins doubtful, fantek Yo, Powell, Jovich
all out. This is a back to back for this
e team. They just played their next team yesterday. Third
and four nights for them. For the Hornets, it is
third game and four nights, but they do have rest
and it's a chance for them to get some revenge, right,
They lost to the Heat twice, very very early in
the season, so you know it is a little bit
of a different Hornets team in twenty twenty six. You
think the market is moving this one in the right direction,
think Hornets can get some revenger.
Speaker 3: Well, they're kind of showing us that price has been
no object when they were the better team against lower
echelon people. Miami probably ranked mid range. And now you're
going to lay eight a lot of it due to
what you said the second to back to backs. We
had a lot of second of back to backs here
today and a little bit of revenge. Of course, they're
both inside the same division.
Speaker 2: Right now.
Speaker 3: Miami a couple of games ahead of Charlotte in the standings.
In the play in standings, Miami ate Charlotte nine, so
certainly big game for both where Miami's concerned. Last night,
I think I went through this in my notes. I
didn't see a lot of heavy minutes played by Miami.
Speaker 2: It was kind of a coach job.
Speaker 3: So they really shouldn't be fatigued here. To tell you
the truth, Ski there obviously conditioned to play fast because
that's their style. So I wouldn't expect in the second
of back to back for them to be too too
fatigued here khalil Ware and Heimi Baskiz Junior. That's something
that I had circled here. Those two guys off the
bench last two games, and I get they were against
Brooklyn have been really, really good last night combined thirty
teen of eighteen.
Speaker 2: Thirty four points.
Speaker 3: Charlotte's playing really good defense, though, and that's the one
thing that scares me a little bit here. Miami doesn't
play that type of defense. And if I feel like
they're shooting is a little bit better because Norman Powell
isn't playing. If Norman Powell was playing for the other side,
it might feel different about that. But I kind of
give the shooting edge to Charlotte at this point in time.
Can nipples made a huge difference. I somewhat agree with
the line move Ski, but I would have much rather
had the opener than what we're looking at now. I
just don't think I want to lay eight points in
a game that's meaningful to both sides against the Miami
team that I don't really think is fatigued off of
last night. The Nets didn't press them. None of those
minutes were taxing, and they weren't heavy minutes anyway.
Speaker 1: I fail you on a lot of what you said there,
most notably Powell his offense. You know that's going to
affect the offense. Oh no, I could see Miami struggling
to score. He talked about Charlotte's defense. I mean, yeah,
a big part of why they've been on this streak.
I mean, if you look at the games, all their games,
especially at home, just been under, under, under, and they're
just locking up. So I can see that another under
game here today. That's what I like. I like lower
points in this game. All right, next one up, we
have MAVs in Boston, opened up minus fifteen. Looks like
fourteen and a half total. Didn't really move. Walsh is
questionable for Boston. For Dallas, Clay and Brandon Williams are probable.
Gaff the doubtfull as well as Badley, so really could
be missing rent protection there for them. Trying to get
to the situation here. You do have second of it
back to back for the MAVs, they played that close
to the game with Orlando. Yeah, yesterday, third and four nights,
fourth and sixth for them as well. For the Celtics.
They have a little bit of a rest advantage coming
off of a loss as a favorite, so transfer him
to bounce back, and that's probably the way that I
would out play this game. Tatum also expected to make
his return. He's playing today, so we'll see if that
throws them off. We'll see how he looks, you know,
his first game back and has it been a year,
almost a year. I still would only take Boston, I
think here, you know, what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I agree with a lot of that.
Speaker 3: Tatum. Probably on the minutes restriction. Obviously, I saw just
for prop people. If I saw it's props listed at
thirteen and a half points, four and a half rebounds.
Speaker 2: But you don't know how many minutes he's going to get.
Speaker 3: So I go back to something that you said yesterday
about Dallas, when we talked about the Dallas Orlando game,
and you had said they're getting some guys back, they
may be in this one, and then you just went
in the recap said that you played them, so good
play there. Everything that you said yesterday maybe doesn't apply today.
Right again, you mentioned it already. I'll remntion it. The
size Daniel Gafford at thirteen boards yesterday. Dallas needs guys
like that and Bagley Junior, that's why they acquired him.
If nothing else, he's an active body at the rim.
Now you're stuck again in that spot where Dallas has
been stuck in all season long, in all likelihood with
Dwight Powell at center. Cooper Flagg did return yesterday, played
about twenty five to almost twenty six minutes, so they
didn't really push him too too hard. You probably expect
him to get that same amount of minutes here tonight
came out firing though twenty two shots, so a flag
obviously back is a pretty good sign for Dallas. And also,
Brandon Williams is a bigger deal maybe than many thin
because he's the only legit point guard that they have
on that team, and they do seem to play a
little bit better offensively when he's out there. However, another
one of the points you made is the one that
sticks in mind. Boston got absolutely trounced by Charlotte the
other night. They didn't even make ninety points against Charlotte.
So at home on a Friday night, we always think
that the crowd and that atmosphere is good for teams
Friday night home games and the you know, the batch
at three point shooters that they have. Yeah, maybe Tatum
clogs things up a little bit as he shakes off
some rust, but I don't know that that makes a
difference here. Boston could probably spurt their way to a
twelve to nothing run or something like that to get
some separation. So for me, it would probably be Boston here.
I just think they're itching to get back out on
the court after that loss. And Dallas, probably in back
to back's third road game in four nights, is probably
a good team to have in here to correct what
went wrong the other day.
Speaker 1: Let's keep going. We have Blazers and Rockets. Opened up
at seven for the Rockets, down to six. I'll call
it six right now. Total open two twenty one and
a half seeing it as low as two twenty for
the injury report, and this shit just hit refresh one time.
Taito Thompson and Javari Smith are questionable for Portland. You
have Murray questionable, Denny is doubtful sharp as out. The
Rockets did play yesterday, right, they went to overtime, but
they did not have to travel. I'm here today for
the Placoda Blazers do have the rest advantage the Rockets.
I have seen them come off of an overtime game
on the back to back on the road. I think
it was versus Detroit, and they win that game outright
as a dog. So they are capable. But I just
don't feel like they're playing the best basketball right now.
And also I think they could be looking ahead to
the Spurs game. So, uh, it's one thousand. A Blazer spot.
Obviously you hate to not have Denny and Sharp, but
clearly a Blazer spot. What do you think?
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, we think along the same lines. You
say a lot of what I would have said.
Speaker 3: The only thing I'll add to this why I wouldn't
want Houston is Thompson got hurt in that game last
night and played through a bad angle. I wouldn't expect
against Portland that they've run him out there tonight. Houston
played heavy, heavy minutes. It's almost as if they went
Udoka went to just a six man rotation. You get
as deep as reed Shepherd, the sixth man into the bench,
and everybody played thirty seven minutes or better except for
Tarry Easton, who played thirty three. But the rest of
the bench Cappella and Okoge the only other two guys
to see the floor eleven and seventeen minutes. So for Durant,
it was a heavy night's work. For Jabari Smith, who's
questionable tonight, heavy night's work. Like I say, Thompson forty
three and a half minutes.
Speaker 2: And a bad angle. Not sure he'll even play. I
don't know.
Speaker 3: I can't look Houston's way. But and my only concern
in this one with Portland was exactly what you said
at the end. It was more Thanny Abdia not having him.
You'd love to have him. In this case, we knew
we weren't going to have sharp for Abdia. I think
it's like six games in a row now where he'll
probably miss. Still, we talked the other day. I think
Houston played Washington right Monday when you took Washington plus
all those points and thought that maybe Houston was looking ahead.
And this just has the same feel as that game,
Like we just won last night against Golden State, bigger
game to Houston.
Speaker 2: Come back tonight.
Speaker 3: Rest a couple of bodies, right, and you know, just
try and win and not really worry about covering. So
from that angle, I would look at Portland.
Speaker 1: All right, Uh keep here, Nets, this is wrong. That
was wrong, Nets, and he is not correct. Yeah, Pelicans
and Sons. So while I get that squared away, Actually
there we go right there. Pelicans and Sons open minus seven,
down to five and a half total open two twenty
seven looks like two twenty six. Injuries. Murray is probable
for Repelicans. Dylan Brooks just got a dui. He's not
playing good one and Williams are also out for the Sons.
You know, I just at one point the Sons were
playing well enough to lay some points, but they're just
back to the point where I don't want to be
laying anything with Phoenix. So I guess that makes me
think of Pelicans plus the points here. If not, it
have to be over. How do you see this game?
You know?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, see what the ruling is on Zion.
Speaker 3: As the day goes on, I'd like to have him
in there, but back to back he's in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not on the report.
Speaker 3: With him in, And if they don't change that injury
report later on it's a late game, then you know,
for four rest purposes, then I would like the other side,
the New Orleans side, de Jente.
Speaker 2: Murray will play.
Speaker 3: They rested him yesterday in order to let him play today.
It is second of back to backs. We travel third
and four nights on New Orleans side. But it's the
same thing for Phoenix and ISAs you know. I had
Phoenix last night team total over. They shot miserably against
a bad defense. That doesn't mean they can't bounce back
here at home tonight and shoot better. But for the
Phoenix side, it was only thirty eight percent from the field.
I think it was like twenty eight percent from three
against Chicago. Of all teams, it just wasn't good and
their backcourt really got shredded defensively. Trey Jones and Colin
Sexton fifty one points in that game on really good
shooting twenty thirty four. So something different about Phoenix right now.
You mentioned that earlier Jalen Green twenty shots only five
mates one of eight from three. I don't know that
Jalen Green has exactly fit in to this offense quite yet.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: It's just three guys took sixty shots last night, Green,
Booker and Grayson Allen. New Orleans has, if nothing else,
they've got a bunch of scores, and like I say,
with Murray back in, we always talk about Trey Murphy
and their depth right now is not bad. So I
agree with you that. In fact, I probably agree more
with what you said last, which was over. I think
this game probably does get over. I do think Phoenix
will shoot better, and I do think New Orleans, if
nothing else, they'll come with a little bit of offense
and probably.
Speaker 2: Not the best of defenses.
Speaker 3: So too, twenty six and a half kind of looks
light to me in this game, as long as Zion
doesn't get ruled out last minute and this game's pushed down.
I'm just looking here skiz seven down to five and
a half for Phoenix, so there's some New Orleans money
coming in, but I would look over to twenty six
and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff on that. Keep going down the
list here, and that means next is Nicks and Nuggets
opened up minus one for the Nuggets flipped, we see
Nicks minus one or one and a half total, not
far from the opener did up in two thirty one.
See mostly two twenty nine and a half. Right now,
Josh mart is questionable, McBride is out, Gordon is questionable,
and Johnson's questionable, Jones is questionable, Watson is out. So
the Knicks do have a slight rest advantage here, but
it is the third game and for a night still
for them, fourth and six. The Nuggets are playing their
second of a back to back here and trying to
think if they had to travel. They did not have
to travel, right.
Speaker 2: The Lakers last night, Yeah.
Speaker 1: They did not have to travel. They played in Denver
last night. So you know, my thought for this Nuggets
team has been focus for them is defense lately. But
the spots where you know it's not the best of
spots or are unrested mus have been the games where
defense kind of goes out the window and they just
end up trying to outscore their opponent. And I get
it when you're playing in short road chasing, et cetera. Yeah, Nuggets,
I think are ten and three to the over runner
back to back here, the Knicks could be without Josh Hart.
I think that would hurt the defense more than an offense.
I disagree with this one coming down. I think here,
you know, I would look more towards over What do
you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, because as much as David Adaman
tries to talk about willing his team to play defense again.
Last night, Ski the Lakers shot fifty two percent for
the field. The Lakers shot forty two percent from three.
Those aren't good defensive numbers. I mean, somehow that game
managed to stay under only got the two thirty three
with both teams shooting excellent from the floor last night,
so just a lack of possessions. Denver did basically win
that game on the free throw line thirty one free
throw attempts to fifteen, so they're plus sixteen and free
throw attempts and plus eighteen on the scoreboard in those
free throw attempts. So Denver, you know, they continue no
matter what the head coach says, at least in my mind,
they continue to be the same type of team outscore you.
We're not really going to play a heck of a
lot of defense. Made a little bit of a move
last night, and they're starting lineup. Zeke Nause started for this team,
maybe to try and instill a little more defense, but
I don't know. I think the Knicks are playing pretty
well right now.
Speaker 2: We'll see Josh Hart.
Speaker 3: Hopefully he does go, but if he doesn't, that's even
more defense missing.
Speaker 2: I think he said that already, So.
Speaker 3: For me, it would probably be an over here the minutes.
The game was close last night, but the minutes weren't
terrible for the Nuggets, other than Christian Brown, who played
almost forty But he you know, the guy's like a
human pogo stick, so he's gonna I think he'll be
just fine. And the bench wasn't really deep to begin with.
They're generally playing seven guys with all the injuries. I
did see a couple of possibilities. I got to go
to my notes here real quick. He hasn't been listed
in yet, but I did read that Aaron Gordon had
tonight targeted for his return. Whether or not that gets announced,
I'm not sure he would be on a limits restriction.
Hasn't played in sixteen games. I don't know that as
good of a defensive player as he is, that he'd
make an immediate effect tonight if he does go, So
for me, it would probably be a look at the
over in this one.
Speaker 1: We're an agreement on this game. We will continue. Clippers
and Spurs opened up eight down to seven or six
and a half, depending where you're looking. Total came down
to point from two twenty four to two twenty three.
Looking at the injuries, we see Bogdanovitch questionable, Collins and
Garland both out for the Spurs. Harrison Barnes is questionable,
Plumbley's questionable, Ingram is out the Spurs. I don't know
why I'm blanking out here. I think the Spurs are
coming off of loss.
Speaker 2: They beat Detroit last night.
Speaker 1: Oh no, they beat Detroit. Okay, that's my bad. Yeah,
they are on the back to back off of a
win versus Detroit. Yeah, third and Fourtnite's fourth and six.
Clippers have a little bit of rest advantage here. Yeah.
I wouldn't want to bet against the Spurs. I hardly
ever want to bet against the Spurs. It has to
be a really good spot. And uh, you know, I
think everybody for the most part, is going to play
be motivated. They're a better team at home, Spurs or nothing.
What do you think?
Speaker 2: Boy?
Speaker 3: They were motivated last night's ski, especially Victor Wembin Yama.
And I guess it was the site of Jalen Durham.
Jalen Duran's been getting a lot of publicity, right. Wemby
goes out, scores thirty eight and gets sixteen ports. I mean,
it was crazy twelve of twenty four from the field.
It's like he knew. I didn't even consider that yesterday.
I didn't play the game, but that was something that
slipped my mind that maybe he would take it a
little bit personal. Seems like he did take that one personal.
I would have looked to play the Clippers team total
here tonight, up and over, but no Darius Garland.
Speaker 2: I don't want to do it.
Speaker 3: I've been talking about, you know, Tylu wants to transition
to a faster pace. It did get me paid the
other night when they scored one hundred and thirty, but
I don't want that when there's no When there's no
Darius Garland, they're going to rest him tonight.
Speaker 2: They call it injury management for that toe injury.
Speaker 3: So it kind of negate any feeling that I would
have had for Clippers. I mean, the pro Clippers stuff
would have been. San Antonio played really hard last night
against Detroit. Detroit comes with a target on their chest nowadays,
and it showed up wemby Daron fox Castle. They all
had great games, but again, they're so deep Ski and
they're so interchangeable that it is hard to bet against them,
and without the Clippers being at full strength. John Collins
isn't even with the team on this road trip. So
tough for me to get to the Clippers here, even
though situationally it might point that way, But I don't know,
it's a little bit difficult.
Speaker 2: I let this game go, man.
Speaker 1: I'm just thinking if Garland's out, I mean, that's less
pace then, right, you know, how got the Spurs are defensively?
How much are the Spurs don't have on a second
of them back to back offensively? I don't know. Maybe
it's it's an under game. We don't want to bet
the over. We should be looking at thunder. That's kind
of the feeling that I have. But you need some
more time. Last game, Pacers and Lakers opened up minus
ten and a half, seeing mostly nine and a halfs
out there. Right now you have nim Hart, Nie Smith,
Siakam all probable, Zuba, but the Lakers Eton is questionable,
Lebron questionable, Maxi Kleiba questionable. Lebron might not play. I
mean he did go down. I don't think he came
back in Ayton. He don't even need to play. He
just go do whatever you want, Bro, he's not interested anyway.
I do think both teams can score. I agree with
the total going up on this game from two thirty
two to that's how it's what two thirty six out
there right now. I do think it's moving in the
right direction. You should. You probably will have lack of
rep protection for the Lakers in this one, and it
looks like you're gonna have a lot of people healthy
and available for that pacer side over or Pacers. What
do you think?
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: Two things here, One what you said about DeAndre Yight
and it could be additioned by subtraction ski last night
off the bench, Jackson Hayes and Ruy they got to
play pretty decent minutes and they scored thirty five points
and go fourteen of nineteen. So the interior, I know
Ruey shoots some threes. He shot him well last night,
four or five. But still if we only want to
consider Jackson Hayes, maybe that's better having him than eighton
in there tonight against the Pacers.
Speaker 2: Teams doesn't have a lot of room protection.
Speaker 3: I'm just trying to look up because I know I've
played a pacer game the other night in cash and yeah,
it was that Clipper game where they gave up one
hundred and thirty.
Speaker 2: I did this the other day. I'll do it again.
Speaker 3: Pacers last six games they allowed one thirty one, one
thirty four, one thirty five, one thirty three, one thirty
and one twenty five. That's the lowest NAVE allowed in
the last six games. So to think that the Lakers
can't get the one twenty five and the Pacers can't
pick apart the Laker defense, even if it's in a
losing effort, I think this number is probably a little
bit too low. The way Indiana's playing recently, there hasn't
been a game total that they've been involved in less
than two thirty one. Here tonight, we're looking at two
thirty five. Every other game there was one two thirty one.
All the others for two thirty seven are better. So
for me, the back to back situation, LA is probably
good enough scoring. With I fifth Lebron doesn't go Luca
and reeves on the floor, you're still good enough scoring
against Indiana.
Speaker 2: For me, it would probably be over.
Speaker 1: Good stuff. That is uh, that looks like the NBA
car for today. So we will wrap it up and
before we get to this best bets. Yeah, remind everybody
we have that, what is it? You get six days
or sixty nine bucks, So it's a three day pass.
You are getting three days on top of that for free.
It's really what it is, and give you a chance
to check out some of the stuff we do for
about a week if you're interested in either Rob or myself.
So with that said, you know, I'll pass it to
you and ask you if there's anything else you would
like to promote, and if you have a best bet
for the show, we'd love to hear it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so.
Speaker 3: This is how you know what I'm gonna do here,
SKI is. I'm just gonna go ahead and yeah, see
that's not even good. I was gonna say, because I
don't have an NBA best bet, I would give you
the college best bet that I played already, But now
the thing has moved almost three points, so I can't
even do that. I'm gonna leave you empty. I just
don't have anything to give you here. I did play
a college game this morning, for what it's worth, if
you want to go play it now. Was the Valpariso
Bradley game over. I got it at one thirty three
and a half, about eleven am this morning, it's now
one thirty six.
Speaker 2: It's in the.
Speaker 3: Missouri Valley Conference tournament. So I'll leave the chat with
their best judgment on that. One of the things about
that game, guys, why I played it was Bradley's played
thirty two games this year. Twenty eight of those games
have gone over one thirty three and a half, twenty
eight out of thirty two, So I played that number.
Speaker 2: Valparizo.
Speaker 3: It's it's a tournament played in Saint Louis, where it's
the rims are notably tough. Valparizo got to play on
them last night, second night in the same gym, seeing
the background and everything. I think they'll shoot better than
they did last night. And Bradley, like I say, has
just been an over machine against that type of numbers.
So you know you've lost value. But I'll leave you
with that thought. Bradley Valparizo up and over the total.
Speaker 1: Our good stuff from Vino. For myself, I will go
with the first game we talked about the heat and
the Hornets under two twenty nine and a half just
boils down really to the Hornets playing E League defense,
probably the best defense in the league lately. They are
actually ready number one. That's five games, but just looking
at them in twenty twenty six at home, they've gone
under eleven out of thirteen games, not playing extremely fast,
clamping and Miami without Norman Powe probably will struggle to
score as well. So I see this as another undergame
I'll do. Yeah, I'll leave that as the best bet
two twenty nine and a half, so Veno, it's been
a solid week. I appreciate you as always taking the
time to kept these games with me chat. We appreciate
you all as well for supporting the show and you know,
bringing you know, all the good edges and just get
energy that you guys have all the time. So best
of luck on all your plays. We'll be back again
next week and we'll catch you guys now