Speaker 1: We're back here on another topic.
Speaker 2: Of course, today is going to be really diving into
Speaker 2: the markets, because as we are recording this, the markets
Speaker 2: are an absolute craziness right now. Many people would say, hey,
Speaker 2: the market is over sold. Some people say no, this
Speaker 2: is kind of the cycle that we deal with every day.
Speaker 2: So we wanted to get sal Gilberte coming in from
Speaker 2: two Grim awry, Sal, Nice to see.
Speaker 3: You, Nice to see you pull doing well, doing well.
Speaker 2: Interesting times, man, Well, some people would say it's the
Speaker 2: best of times, and it's the worst of times.
Speaker 1: If you look at the two.
Speaker 2: Different market signals that we're seeing. One of the biggest
Speaker 2: market signals that we have to take a look at,
Speaker 2: of course, is what's happening with the ETFs.
Speaker 1: And here we'll go.
Speaker 2: In and show something that I think is important. This
Speaker 2: is the Bitcoin ETFPO Bitcoin ETF says you can kind
Speaker 2: of see We've seen a variety, but this is a
Speaker 2: fairly significant an outflow strink right now. Thirteen days in
Speaker 2: a row, outflows totaling four and a half bill seventeen
Speaker 2: of the last nineteen trading days of ben alflows. This
Speaker 2: came from Jeff Seifert coming over from Bloomberg. When you
Speaker 2: look at ETFs right now and the activity that we
Speaker 2: are seeing, not necessarily with the xrptfs, but definitely with
Speaker 2: some of the bitcoin and even ethereum ETFs, do you
Speaker 2: think this is an extended issue that we're going to
Speaker 2: be facing or is this short term pain.
Speaker 3: I think it's short term pain. I think what we're
Speaker 3: seeing is just a rotation. Remember, Bitcoin and these ETFs
Speaker 3: are becoming mature instruments. They are accepted by Advisor's not
Speaker 3: you know, certainly, as bit wise has been saying pounding
Speaker 3: the table, They're not universally accepted by any means, but
Speaker 3: they are definitely mainstream, which means that you're going to
Speaker 3: have a rotation of money if you find a better
Speaker 3: use for your money and you don't see a near
Speaker 3: term change in direction. For instance, Bitcoin has been going
Speaker 3: down for a lot of different reasons, just a momentum flow.
Speaker 3: I'm not particularly worried about it. I do think that,
Speaker 3: you know, over time, Bitcoin's got to answer some of
Speaker 3: the questions about the quantum challenges that they face, and
Speaker 3: I think that that those are serious in terms of
Speaker 3: big money and long term allocations. But in your term,
Speaker 3: this is nothing more than rotation. You see it in stocks,
Speaker 3: and we see it in cryptos and asset class it's all.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, the thing I think that's interesting to me is
Speaker 2: many people will try to compare these ETFs from bitcoin
Speaker 2: to the trading habits of the ogs, and you just can't.
Speaker 2: This is nothing like a bitcoiner that has been trading
Speaker 2: in the market for some time, where they essentially hoddle
Speaker 2: through almost everything. That is a completely different makeup of
Speaker 2: the investors that are going into these ETFs, and I
Speaker 2: think that's the one thing that people have a mismatch
Speaker 2: on in understanding why ETF volatility is what it is.
Speaker 2: The thing though, that is interesting to me is that
Speaker 2: the lack of volatility with some of the other ETFs,
Speaker 2: specifically to the XRP ETFs. Do you think there's more
Speaker 2: retail there or do you feel like, no, this is
Speaker 2: actually institutional selecting XRP as a completely different asset class
Speaker 2: than bitcoin.
Speaker 1: What would be your opinion?
Speaker 3: I think it's more retail still in XRP. I think
Speaker 3: that XRP has yet to be adopted on an institutional
Speaker 3: scale in portfolios via the ETFs. Now that's coming, Okay,
Speaker 3: you've got people announcing that they're doing that. Some of
Speaker 3: the treasuries are putting XRP in, but a lot of
Speaker 3: the treasuries are actually doing tokens themselves. And so I
Speaker 3: do think that it's important to realize that XRP is
Speaker 3: way behind Bitcoin in terms of institutional adoption at the
Speaker 3: ETF level.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, and with that being said, you look look at
Speaker 2: because I was talking with an analyst just the other
Speaker 2: day and one of the things that we got into
Speaker 2: was what would be the potential because you're holding it
Speaker 2: I think one point one bill right now, could we
Speaker 2: see a five billion potential in terms of the roll
Speaker 2: ups on ETFs for XRP. And his statement was that
Speaker 2: he felt like it would be about five percent of
Speaker 2: the holdings of what Bitcoin and ethereum ETFs are doing.
Speaker 2: So you look at that, that's about one hundred and
Speaker 2: ten billion, again not excluding some of these exes, but
Speaker 2: that would be a pretty significant bump for XRP ETFs
Speaker 2: going forward. And if you're right that we haven't seen
Speaker 2: institutional moving into this yes yet, this could get very
Speaker 2: interesting in the coming months and years.
Speaker 1: One thing that is.
Speaker 2: Unique I think with XRP is what's going on with
Speaker 2: the XRP ledger, and I'll share this with you guys
Speaker 2: right here.
Speaker 1: This of course is the XRP.
Speaker 2: AVM side chain now live with r l USD. So
Speaker 2: now we have r l u s D as a
Speaker 2: multi chain expansion. This is good for Ripple in general
Speaker 2: because it does mean we're going to see adoption across
Speaker 2: I think a whole new set of smart contract bag
Speaker 2: big ecosystems. Is this good for xr Well, it's good
Speaker 2: for XRP anytime r l USD is being used. But
Speaker 2: you think this is good for XRP as an ecosystem, definitely.
Speaker 3: I think it's it's just part of the expansion of
Speaker 3: the ecosystem. So wherever it can be used and wherever
Speaker 3: the ledger can be used, it's just an expansion of
Speaker 3: the system. It's why adoption. It gets people used to it,
Speaker 3: and it gets it up and running. I think that
Speaker 3: that one of the things we all underestimated was the
Speaker 3: speed at which things would get up and running and
Speaker 3: in slaw and so as we as we move forward,
Speaker 3: as we get towards the end of the year and
Speaker 3: the TCC starts moving more your eyes transactions, Yeah, I
Speaker 3: think that that the underpinnings will come again. You know,
Speaker 3: the price isn't exactly corresponding with people's expectations, but the
Speaker 3: price is always right. And so for whatever reason you
Speaker 3: see rotation out of XRP right now, for that's short
Speaker 3: term money. I still think that's short term money and
Speaker 3: asset allocation on more retail level, just people going with
Speaker 3: what's hot. I do think xrp's over sold the charts.
Speaker 3: You know, you could do a lot of damage on
Speaker 3: the charts, and you can. You can pick numbers a
Speaker 3: lot lower than here, There's no doubt about that. But
Speaker 3: I know a lot of people who are already starting
Speaker 3: starting to talk about when they start taking stock market profits,
Speaker 3: when they start taking those exting risks off the table,
Speaker 3: they're going to reallocate that back into a crypto. And
Speaker 3: you know, we're in the XRP and bitcoin and a
Speaker 3: couple of other worlds, so that's what we hear about.
Speaker 2: But the reallocation, yeah, and that is definitely the rotation
Speaker 2: CCL that several people have talked about, and I would
Speaker 2: agree to a certain extent. The one caveat to that
Speaker 2: would be SpaceX because this is an ipo that we
Speaker 2: have not seen the likes of before could edge up.
Speaker 1: To a round two trillion.
Speaker 2: This could be a pretty major issue if we see
Speaker 2: retail rushing into this, because many people say that that's
Speaker 2: why part of why we're seeing some of the big
Speaker 2: Bitcoin price and Ethereum price, crypto price in general exiting
Speaker 2: is in preparation for some of these big IPOs. What
Speaker 2: happens if retail gets hosed on these things.
Speaker 1: That could put a bit of a damper. What do
Speaker 1: you think.
Speaker 3: I think it's going to put a bit of a
Speaker 3: damper on the whole macro market. I think you're exactly right.
Speaker 3: Some selling is happening in crypto for people to get
Speaker 3: some dry powder to buy into these IPOs. I think
Speaker 3: that IPOs of this size, when you look back at
Speaker 3: the very few times that they've happened, and I don't
Speaker 3: mean just a specific company size, I mean the amount
Speaker 3: of IPO money, the amount that i PO is, IPOs
Speaker 3: are demanding of the financial capital, the free capital that's
Speaker 3: out there when you when you have when you see
Speaker 3: that happen, and then generally six to twelve months later,
Speaker 3: you have a little bit of a of a problem.
Speaker 3: And a lot of that is because insiders, you know
Speaker 3: these the rules the way they are. Your money's if
Speaker 3: you if you go through an I P O, you
Speaker 3: have to generally wait six months as generally it's give
Speaker 3: or take with depending under circumstances, but you have to
Speaker 3: wait about six months before you can sell your shares.
Speaker 3: And you you know, especially the way they've structured SpaceX
Speaker 3: where the employees all participate, that's a lot of shares
Speaker 3: that are come going to free six months. Then you've
Speaker 3: got Anthropic going public. There's a lot of IPO demand
Speaker 3: for capital that will I think put a damper on
Speaker 3: any any markets, but particularly crypto because crypto is still
Speaker 3: you know, it's it's more spare money. It's not quo
Speaker 3: for money. Still it's and so I do think that
Speaker 3: people have to be extremely careful both with the IPOs
Speaker 3: and with what happens six to twelve months after these IPOs,
Speaker 3: and understand if they do cause a downdraft in securities prices,
Speaker 3: that is going to hurt everything. Okay, that always happens,
Speaker 3: but it's temporary, and you know, stay the course, especially
Speaker 3: with XRP. XRP has a use case. The things that
Speaker 3: have a use case, the things that are that are
Speaker 3: doing buybacks. The things that are that are either using
Speaker 3: the supply or diminishing supply, those are the tokens you want.
Speaker 2: To be Well, you're kind of alluding to hyperliquid, which
Speaker 2: we'll talk about in a minute, but to your point,
Speaker 2: you know, I'm showing something here from Sary your merit
Speaker 2: and what he's hitting on is this is crazy to me.
Speaker 2: Fidelity announced that it's making a space x I PO
Speaker 2: available to any customer with a retail brokenge account with
Speaker 2: two thousand dollars or more in the account. It used
Speaker 2: to be five hundred K and it's now two K.
Speaker 2: So you are essentially sucking up so much retail into
Speaker 2: these IPOs? Do they think and I look at this,
Speaker 2: I'm sure that the investment bankers have been courting a
Speaker 2: lot of these organizations out here in terms of these
Speaker 2: brokerage of trying to say, hey, we don't need this
Speaker 2: to fail, We're going to have to take in as
Speaker 2: much retail powder as we can to put this on
Speaker 2: the charts.
Speaker 1: Is this this just seems very dangerous? Sal What do
Speaker 1: you think.
Speaker 3: It is extremely dangerous. I think that that two things. One,
Speaker 3: they've lowered these minimums over the years because it's just
Speaker 3: easier and actually the infrastructure to allow smaller investors to
Speaker 3: invest in IPO's works. The other thing is IPOs used
Speaker 3: to be a bit of a frenzy, and we're seeing
Speaker 3: that with the spacexipo. Yeah, but it used to be
Speaker 3: a company needed more capital and it caught on for
Speaker 3: whatever reason, it was popular and it went to the
Speaker 3: market to raise capital. And I'm not saying this is
Speaker 3: the case specifically with SpaceX, but most IPOs nowadays they're
Speaker 3: almost a peak because what happens is these companies trade
Speaker 3: into private equity markets. They're marked higher and higher and higher,
Speaker 3: both both justly and perhaps a little bit bit inflationary
Speaker 3: from the PA side to make their books look good
Speaker 3: and get higher fees. And when they think they can't
Speaker 3: mark them any higher, that's when they go public. I
Speaker 3: mean the p market and the IPO markets. You know,
Speaker 3: back in the day, you bought an IPO, you were
Speaker 3: lucky to get it, and you were almost guaranteed to
Speaker 3: make money. Now it's very rare that you make money
Speaker 3: over the you know, the first six to twelve months
Speaker 3: and an IPO comes out, you might get a couple
Speaker 3: of positive days and then all of a sudden, they
Speaker 3: think tanks. And that's because the private equity guys have
Speaker 3: marked it up as high as they can possibly market
Speaker 3: and now they're selling it somewhere else, and they sell
Speaker 3: it to the.
Speaker 2: Pot well, and this this dumb just because of the
Speaker 2: size and the basically the gigantic nature of what this
Speaker 2: could do to the market is what concerns me.
Speaker 1: You've got the Dow.
Speaker 2: Right now hitting another gain plus eight hundred points on
Speaker 2: the day. That's as we're recording so highest level on record.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I understand why we're seeing these kinds
Speaker 2: of numbers. I'm still in a bit of disbelief that
Speaker 2: this market can continue at this rate. And I've thought
Speaker 2: that this is going to pull back more and more.
Speaker 1: But hear the Dow at fourteen hundred. Where do you
Speaker 1: think that this stops?
Speaker 3: So, I don't know. I know the trend is up.
Speaker 3: I know that the charts look terrific. I know that
Speaker 3: you know the trend is your friend, but I also
Speaker 3: know that a lot of stocks are not participating exactly.
Speaker 3: And you know you and I are experienced enough, Paul,
Speaker 3: We've been around long enough. This makes me really nervous.
Speaker 3: You've got to be in it, okay, but I think
Speaker 3: you have to be very, very careful. I think people
Speaker 3: like Warren Buffett, some of the bigger hedge fund managers.
Speaker 3: Myself personally, I've got a lot of cash set aside
Speaker 3: as a percentage of my portfolio, I have an unusually
Speaker 3: I'm unusually underinvested and I'm missing out. Okay, but I
Speaker 3: I don't want to say it feels frothy, because the
Speaker 3: charts do look terrific, especially on the down, but it
Speaker 3: does make you nervous and you do need to be
Speaker 3: careful here. And remember markets go down a lot faster
Speaker 3: than they go up, so people have no doubt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's the thing.
Speaker 2: If you see a potential waterfrawl chart starting to form
Speaker 2: in some of these assets, many people I think will
Speaker 2: be in a position one of disbelief and whether or
Speaker 2: not they can get out in time. And some of
Speaker 2: those yields are just absolutely get erased so quickly. The
Speaker 2: other thing that happens when these markets get frothy is
Speaker 2: when I start seeing products basically coming into the market
Speaker 2: where I feel the demand is diminished. What I mean
Speaker 2: by that is this right here, and that is bit
Speaker 2: mine now offering a nine and a half percent yield
Speaker 2: on new preferred stock. This is basically taking a page
Speaker 2: out of micro Strategy's book with their stretch asset.
Speaker 1: So what do you think about this?
Speaker 2: With what Bitman is doing, obviously the biggest debt holder
Speaker 2: of Ethereum, is this a good move?
Speaker 3: You know? I think that that the fact that they're
Speaker 3: issuing debt and can sell it good for them. I'd
Speaker 3: rather see them issueing securities because they can hold on
Speaker 3: during a downdraft, So debt's got to be paid. If
Speaker 3: if they get caught in a bear market after buying, okay,
Speaker 3: they still have to pay that nine and a half percent.
Speaker 3: They have serious cash needs, right that can get you
Speaker 3: into trouble. So, you know, I much prefer seeing these companies.
Speaker 3: It's all these treasury companies in particular selling stock on
Speaker 3: the rallies so that they have just plane cash. They
Speaker 3: don't owe anything to anybody, and they can choose to
Speaker 3: do with it what they wish and they can ride
Speaker 3: the down moves. It doesn't matter like the rest of us.
Speaker 3: But if you're if you have to pay your you know,
Speaker 3: your interest to your your shareholders, you may have to
Speaker 3: sell some one of those assets you acquire just to
Speaker 3: pay that interest during which.
Speaker 2: Is exactly what's happening with Stretch right now. In micro strategy,
Speaker 2: they're to get those dividends off the rate. Of course
Speaker 2: they are continuing to I think you know the negative
Speaker 2: position right now that micro strategy is in along with
Speaker 2: what's happening with Stretch is a bit concerning, especially for bitcoin.
Speaker 2: One thing though that continues to surprise me is while
Speaker 2: the bitcoin market and to a certain extent, some of
Speaker 2: the traditional assets in crypto are melting down, you have
Speaker 2: moves like this occurring, and that is Visa, MasterCard, Coinbase, Stripe.
Speaker 2: They're forming a consortium now to launch a new stable
Speaker 2: coin basically to rival Circle and Tether. I want to
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Speaker 2: But first of all, do you think there's going to
Speaker 2: be too many stable coins in the market and do
Speaker 2: you think they have a chance to be able to
Speaker 2: really take some market share away from the two power players?
Speaker 3: Functionally, I don't think there can be too many. I
Speaker 3: think that you know, people have used for their own
Speaker 3: stable coins, so fine, they does are going to be
Speaker 3: niche markets. I'm not sure if you can challenge the
Speaker 3: big ones. You know, they're just so ingrained in the
Speaker 3: usage it's going to be really hard for anybody to
Speaker 3: challenge them. And so, you know, and there have been
Speaker 3: several people, and I agree with them, who say, you know,
Speaker 3: the stable coin business is probably one of the greatest
Speaker 3: businesses ever invented. You take other people's money and you
Speaker 3: stabilize the volatility in the market, but you get to
Speaker 3: keep all the interest that that money earns. It's an
Speaker 3: astoundingly good business if you're the stable coin issuer. So look,
Speaker 3: stable coins are a little interesting facet of the market.
Speaker 3: I do think that they took away from people's you know,
Speaker 3: just look at XRP, right, everybody thought people would just
Speaker 3: buy XRP and deal with the volatility. Well, the way
Speaker 3: around the volatility is stable coin. So XRP doesn't become
Speaker 3: the value holder if you will, during the transaction. It
Speaker 3: just becomes the enabler of the transaction used for seconds.
Speaker 3: So it's a pure use case.
Speaker 1: Now, yeah, pure use case.
Speaker 2: Well, you look at a couple of points right now,
Speaker 2: and this is in reference to gold and bitcoin, because
Speaker 2: I would.
Speaker 1: Say a lot of the XRP.
Speaker 2: Community aligns very good with.
Speaker 1: The gold community.
Speaker 2: That's not necessarily the same when it comes to the
Speaker 2: bitcoin community. Because right now you've got micro strategy down
Speaker 2: I think ten point eight billion facing its large largest
Speaker 2: unrealized loss. So six years of buying bitcoin, MicroStrategy is
Speaker 2: down seventeen percent versus what we've seen in gold, And
Speaker 2: I hate to say, is Peter Schiff right that gold
Speaker 2: has essentially become the new default asset versus US treasuries.
Speaker 1: If you look at the charts, it.
Speaker 2: Shows more people holding gold now than US treasuries. Where
Speaker 2: do you think this plays out for gold?
Speaker 3: I think people need to understand that assets are assets,
Speaker 3: and they're volatile. And I think people might be surprised
Speaker 3: that the pullback gold can undergo. If you look back
Speaker 3: to the seventies gold, you know, once gold blasted off
Speaker 3: after it got deregulated and we're allowed to trade it,
Speaker 3: it had an amazing pullback. I think it was something
Speaker 3: like seventy. I know a lot of gold bugs who've
Speaker 3: lightened up on their gold and they are waiting for
Speaker 3: a pullback. So, okay, I do think that everybody needs
Speaker 3: to understand an asset is an asset as an asset,
Speaker 3: and the T builds a T bill. Okay, T bills
Speaker 3: are going to stay pretty stable. They're backed by the
Speaker 3: US government. They got that ready return that you operate around.
Speaker 3: Everything else, including gold and bitcoin and every other crypto
Speaker 3: and every other asset including stocks, are going to be really,
Speaker 3: really volatile. And here's the deal, all right, micro strategies underwater.
Speaker 3: They have unrealized losses. So what it's just unrealized losses.
Speaker 3: They don't have to realize them. Their problem is the
Speaker 3: debt that they need some cash to pay off that debt.
Speaker 3: If your hold everybody listening to this poll has some
Speaker 3: XRP underwater, right, are you going to sell it? The loan. No,
Speaker 3: you're gonna hold on unless you're leveraged. Okay, if you're
Speaker 3: leveraging an audien.
Speaker 2: Don't you think the buyer of XRP is different than
Speaker 2: the than the current buyer of bitcoin?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there was happening.
Speaker 2: I do, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm looking at the gold
Speaker 2: chart here, sal and you're right. I mean we saw
Speaker 2: this pullback right here. That was October twenty one, definite pullback.
Speaker 2: This was an entry point that we did riding this
Speaker 2: up and then here we are essentially on a pullback
Speaker 2: from where we were sitting at. When you look at
Speaker 2: gold in general, what do you think about that as
Speaker 2: in terms of the kind of pullback that could be
Speaker 2: happening in the coming, say twelve months for gold.
Speaker 3: Well, let's understand that gold may be a safe haven asset.
Speaker 3: It definitely is, but all assets go down on the
Speaker 3: black days. Now, right, Let's say all these IPOs break
Speaker 3: the markets, you know, twelve months from now, the arcs
Speaker 3: just get exhausted and we have a monster pullback, and
Speaker 3: it happens in a few days or weeks. Everything's going
Speaker 3: to go down. People need to understand that everything's going
Speaker 3: to go down. Might gold go down relative relatively less
Speaker 3: than say stocks or some of the fringe cryptos maybe,
Speaker 3: but everything's going to go down. The point is what's
Speaker 3: the stabilizing asset in your portfolio? Right If you've got
Speaker 3: five percent gold, you're probably going to feel pretty good
Speaker 3: about it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and I think that's that's one of the
Speaker 2: factors right now that a lot of people are trying
Speaker 2: to figure out how do they versify? What are they
Speaker 2: diversify into. It's really a new mix of assets. One
Speaker 2: people or one one group of people have been who
Speaker 2: have been all in on crypto.
Speaker 1: I'm talking to more and.
Speaker 2: More of those who have started to diversify their asset base,
Speaker 2: which is good. They're going into ETFs, they're going into
Speaker 2: some securities, and it makes a lot more sense in general. Obviously,
Speaker 2: the news came out with Ripple coming into support with MasterCard.
Speaker 1: This was a big deal.
Speaker 2: And of course this changes things pretty dramatically because now
Speaker 2: you've got r l uc and.
Speaker 1: The XRP ledger.
Speaker 2: Potentially lining up with one of the biggest retail services
Speaker 2: companies out there.
Speaker 1: This is a big play. I mean, this is.
Speaker 2: Great for Ripple, could be great for r l USD.
Speaker 2: We'll see how this plays out. Granted, Mastercard's got to
Speaker 2: do some things. You know, from an infrastructure side, where
Speaker 2: do you think r l USD is in a year
Speaker 2: based on clarity going through? Okay, we get clarity, we
Speaker 2: get this onslaught of new products and services coming into
Speaker 2: the market. Where do you think our l USD is.
Speaker 3: I think there more are more will be minted than
Speaker 3: there are now. I mean, it's just it's look at Ripple.
Speaker 3: I say it all the time. They're disciplined, they're focused,
Speaker 3: they're just growing. All this market volatility we've just spent
Speaker 3: all this time talking about it doesn't matter that they're
Speaker 3: still going to grow the ledger, the use of that
Speaker 3: ledger and the use case for for XRP and everything
Speaker 3: around the Ledger. And that's what people need to remember.
Speaker 3: And I would caution everybody. Cash is an asset. Don't forget.
Speaker 3: Cash is an asset. If you're earning whatever you do
Speaker 3: in shorter long term three and a half percent or
Speaker 3: four percent or four and a half percent, that's okay,
Speaker 3: it's only opportunity costs. And as the market gets more
Speaker 3: and more frothy, you know, headed out the space with
Speaker 3: the space x I PO I think that that people
Speaker 3: need to understand it's ok to be underinvested and it's
Speaker 3: okay to miss out a little bit in order to
Speaker 3: be safe. What is the price you would pay to
Speaker 3: be safe? That's all it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, last question I have for you today is the
Speaker 2: Clarity situation. Jamie Diamond has been very vocal on the
Speaker 2: issue of fighting to the end. As he said, what's
Speaker 2: your position right now on Clarity? Do you feel like
Speaker 2: we're close to getting this through? Obviously some very big
Speaker 2: deadlines coming down the pipe.
Speaker 3: Honestly, I'm not optimistic what I see in Washington, the
Speaker 3: paralysis I see. I'm just not optimistic on it getting done.
Speaker 1: I'm not so not optimistic.
Speaker 2: I'm going to look at the Clarity Act polymarket this morning,
Speaker 2: still holding at a fifty seven percent chance. That's on
Speaker 2: the week, guys. So we've seen a high right there
Speaker 2: of sixty four this last week, and then of course
Speaker 2: we're sliding slightly at around fifty seven percent.
Speaker 1: Why do you think do you think.
Speaker 2: It's just the you know, the the treachery landscape that
Speaker 2: we're dealing with in DC, or do you think there's
Speaker 2: something greater at work here in terms of the banks,
Speaker 2: and possibly even.
Speaker 1: The broader market.
Speaker 3: I think there's something greater. I think that that people
Speaker 3: are greed is overcoming everybody, and they're they're fighting for
Speaker 3: their own self interest, which isn't a bad thing, okay,
Speaker 3: but I just think that that the the stakes are
Speaker 3: so high that the entrenched tradfi people aren't going to
Speaker 3: give up easily. And Washington is so paralyzed and so
Speaker 3: dysfunctional all the time on things that need bipartisan support. Okay,
Speaker 3: that that I'm just I just call it me. I'm
Speaker 3: a pessimist on politics.
Speaker 2: Well, I you know, the more I talk with political
Speaker 2: political people, both lobbyists and many of the lawmakers themselves,
Speaker 2: I just it's a tough one for me to digest
Speaker 2: because at one point I felt like this was really
Speaker 2: an effort that was going to be unified, and you know,
Speaker 2: I think that the market. I felt like the market
Speaker 2: was very behind this, We had the administration behind this.
Speaker 2: Now you have such I think division between both parties,
Speaker 2: this of course being one of the big factors of
Speaker 2: that division is the Clarity Act and many of the
Speaker 2: things that are going to fall underneath it. But it
Speaker 2: really boils down to one thing, and that is will
Speaker 2: the lawmakers try to do something that's beneficial for the
Speaker 2: American taxpayers. And that's the problem I have, is that
Speaker 2: they don't seem like they're going to.
Speaker 3: They don't, and I do hope they do. And even
Speaker 3: a bad Clarity Act from multiple people's perspective, is better
Speaker 3: than none at all, because I used to work for
Speaker 3: bear Stearns, and he needs to say, we don't care
Speaker 3: what the tax policy is, even if it's bad tax policy.
Speaker 3: We just need to know what it is is so
Speaker 3: we can trade around. And that's what will happen here.
Speaker 3: If we don't get clarity and the Clarity Act pass,
Speaker 3: we're gonna have regulations that can change with the whims
Speaker 3: of each new administration that comes in. It's gonna be
Speaker 3: a disaster and it's gonna slow everything down. Okay, not
Speaker 3: gonna stop anything, but it is gonna slow everything down.
Speaker 3: And we already have clarity on XRP. Don't forget we
Speaker 3: already have clarity n XRP. That's a good thing. That's
Speaker 3: in the plus column for XRP.
Speaker 2: Last, actually, last question to you is hyper liquid. This
Speaker 2: is something that continues to explode. We've seen all sorts
Speaker 2: of major moves within Hype. It's been one of the
Speaker 2: bright shining stars of crypto in general. What is your
Speaker 2: take on hyper Liquid we've where do you guys stand?
Speaker 3: We're I like hyper I think that you know, I'm
Speaker 3: a supply and demand guy, and they take most of
Speaker 3: the fees they aren't on the platform and buy back
Speaker 3: the hype. So you know that that's a really good
Speaker 3: fundamental thing, and I honestly, I wish I understood it
Speaker 3: better because the only way that can sustain itself is
Speaker 3: for hype to continue going high is for the price
Speaker 3: I cogin and things don't always go straight up, okay,
Speaker 3: So you know we've seen that with every market we've
Speaker 3: ever traded, and so I like Hype, I like BnB.
Speaker 3: I like them for the same reasons that they There
Speaker 3: are incentives for people to use their their platforms and
Speaker 3: they they they they're incentives for those those tokens to
Speaker 3: be brought back. They're structurally being removed from the marketplace,
Speaker 3: and that's really good.
Speaker 2: Well, now you've got perpetuals coming into the US.
Speaker 1: Now this is going to.
Speaker 2: Be a I think a somewhat of a new market
Speaker 2: for much of the US traders who had to kind
Speaker 2: of play in the offshore markets in some cases, or
Speaker 2: you know, figure out ways around it to be able
Speaker 2: to deal with that. How much of an impact do
Speaker 2: you think that has on the traditional strategies of investors?
Speaker 1: Is it is it a big part.
Speaker 2: Or do you think it's primly from the pro traders.
Speaker 3: I think right now it's going to be primarily from
Speaker 3: the pro traders. The problem with the perpetual is it
Speaker 3: now becomes a twofold trade. It's a trade around the
Speaker 3: asset of whatever the perpetual represents, and it's an interest
Speaker 3: rate trade exactly. So supply and demand that goes out there,
Speaker 3: and I think it tends and I don't have the
Speaker 3: statistics on this, but I'm willing to bet that it
Speaker 3: makes up markets stronger and faster because as there's more
Speaker 3: denion for the asset, the interest rates also go up,
Speaker 3: and that should be self correcting because then less people
Speaker 3: can afford to participate. But you just seem to get
Speaker 3: these these snowballs of interest that happen so purpose are
Speaker 3: more complex. People think they're easy because there's no role
Speaker 3: involved there, not because of the interest rate component.
Speaker 2: In the Yeah, do you think warsh comes in and
Speaker 2: holds the line on just higher for longer, or do
Speaker 2: you think there's any risk of a rate a rate hike.
Speaker 3: I think they would be insane to hike rates, but
Speaker 3: the market is saying that they might. So now, the
Speaker 3: market is never wrong, But I if I were them,
Speaker 3: I wouldn't hike rates now. With energy prices as high
Speaker 3: as they are, the energy prices are doing the work
Speaker 3: that a higher interest rate would do. And so well, yeah,
Speaker 3: if the prices were to go back to pre war levels,
Speaker 3: you could make a case for them to hike rates.
Speaker 3: If the economy stayed as hot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, and you look at the real estate market,
Speaker 2: and we were starting to see dire signals in the
Speaker 2: real estate market that are showing some slow down, significant slowdown,
Speaker 2: especially when you see something like Florida, where we're based,
Speaker 2: slowing down for the first time, even though South Florida
Speaker 2: is kind of insulated, but it's a super unique market.
Speaker 2: But the rest of the coast of Florida we saw
Speaker 2: recessionary numbers. I think it was twelve point one percent
Speaker 2: of the real estate holdings in Florida had started reducing
Speaker 2: prices actively. That's a very recessionary You had a rate
Speaker 2: hike on top of that, well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't see a case for rate height, not
Speaker 3: with all the other factors that we have. Now understand
Speaker 3: the economic numbers the strong, you know, take real estate
Speaker 3: out of it. The economic numbers are pretty don healthy, amazing,
Speaker 3: and so they're in a bit of a conundrum, which
Speaker 3: means just sit there, just stop. What the markets do there? Work?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I love the markets. Be the markets.
Speaker 2: SALGABERTI thank you so much for coming in today. We
Speaker 2: appreciate you stopping in.
Speaker 3: Always good for thanks.
Speaker 1: All right, you guys know what to do.
Speaker 2: Make sure and like and subscribe and we will catch
Speaker 2: you next time right here on the x RP pod.
Speaker 1: Take care,