WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.320 --> 00:00:03.160 About a total of eight hundred and thirteen more vpc 2 00:00:03.640 --> 00:00:07.000 since that drop happened, and if we go back six months, 3 00:00:07.040 --> 00:00:11.560 they've added a total of about sixty four point three 4 00:00:11.679 --> 00:00:15.160 k bitcoin worth tens of billions of dollars, I believe, 5 00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:19.960 So it's it's still looking quite strong from sharks and 6 00:00:20.000 --> 00:00:23.359 wales right now. And I think we mentioned it the 7 00:00:23.399 --> 00:00:26.199 last time we talked about The only concern I have 8 00:00:26.399 --> 00:00:31.079 is that stable coins aren't really being accumulated, so the 9 00:00:31.160 --> 00:00:34.880 dry powder that implies that whales and sharks have more 10 00:00:34.920 --> 00:00:38.960 and more and more to swap for bitcoin. That's a 11 00:00:38.960 --> 00:00:42.000 little on the limited side because they've already been swapping 12 00:00:42.119 --> 00:00:44.159 so much tether and USD coin. 13 00:00:49.479 --> 00:00:52.520 Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward, 14 00:00:52.520 --> 00:00:55.560 and I have Brian from Sentiment with me, and of course, guys, 15 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:57.119 you know we're going to do a deep dive into 16 00:00:57.119 --> 00:00:59.840 the metrics in what's happening with bitcoin and all coins 17 00:01:00.039 --> 00:01:02.880 and even XRP. As we got news that the XRP 18 00:01:03.159 --> 00:01:06.319 or the first XRP ETF SPOTTYTF has been following in 19 00:01:06.359 --> 00:01:10.040 the United States by bit Wise Brian. Great to see you, 20 00:01:10.079 --> 00:01:10.840 Great to see you. 21 00:01:10.920 --> 00:01:13.599 Yeah, lots going on. We obviously had a correction in 22 00:01:13.680 --> 00:01:17.239 the past three to four days after one of the 23 00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:19.840 more predictable tops. I wouldn't say it was just an 24 00:01:19.879 --> 00:01:23.239 obvious given, but Friday was kind of when we were 25 00:01:23.239 --> 00:01:26.280 seeing peak euphoria. And sure enough, you know, about twenty 26 00:01:26.280 --> 00:01:29.439 four hours after that, midway through the weekend, we start 27 00:01:29.480 --> 00:01:32.519 to see this nosedive from a lot of crypto prices. 28 00:01:32.599 --> 00:01:35.480 So many people are trying to figure out what to 29 00:01:35.519 --> 00:01:37.599 do next, and that's what we'll try to do here 30 00:01:37.599 --> 00:01:38.840 on the call. Yeah. 31 00:01:38.879 --> 00:01:41.319 Absolutely, And you know, as it relates a Bitcoin, I've 32 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:44.439 been telling people like, be cautiously optimistic. We don't know 33 00:01:44.439 --> 00:01:46.400 if the bottom is in yet, and there could still 34 00:01:46.439 --> 00:01:49.920 be more volatility before we actually start breaking out to 35 00:01:50.000 --> 00:01:53.280 new all time highs. And then Brian to your boy, like, 36 00:01:53.359 --> 00:01:56.200 you're thrown into the mix a bunch of macro news 37 00:01:56.239 --> 00:01:58.719 about war and this and that. It just adds fuel 38 00:01:58.760 --> 00:01:59.200 to the fire. 39 00:02:00.000 --> 00:02:02.760 Totally. Yeah. I mean there's there's always real world news 40 00:02:02.799 --> 00:02:06.640 that can throw a wrench into what the you know, 41 00:02:06.840 --> 00:02:09.639 probable direction was going to be in crypto, and I 42 00:02:09.639 --> 00:02:12.240 think with the news that kind of broke in the 43 00:02:12.240 --> 00:02:16.000 Middle East, there's a lot more reasons than just whales 44 00:02:16.599 --> 00:02:20.120 and you know, fomo and fud among the crowd that 45 00:02:20.159 --> 00:02:23.400 are causing price havoc right now, So let's. 46 00:02:23.199 --> 00:02:25.240 Take a look at the data and what is it 47 00:02:25.280 --> 00:02:25.759 telling us. 48 00:02:26.000 --> 00:02:29.639 Yeah, of course, So we'll start with just a quick 49 00:02:29.719 --> 00:02:32.360 update on what we saw Friday. We posted this out 50 00:02:32.360 --> 00:02:35.560 to the public. It actually went super viral. It was 51 00:02:35.560 --> 00:02:38.080 a little unexpected that it got quite as much attention 52 00:02:38.199 --> 00:02:43.120 as it did, but we basically said, you know, sentiment 53 00:02:43.439 --> 00:02:47.879 is at a year high in terms of bullishness. This 54 00:02:47.960 --> 00:02:52.800 is the ratio of positive comments versus negative comments. Using 55 00:02:52.840 --> 00:02:56.319 our algorithm, which is not a perfect science, but a 56 00:02:56.319 --> 00:02:58.520 pretty good one, we're able to pick up if someone 57 00:02:58.599 --> 00:03:01.919 is you know, mentioned bitcoin in a positive light versus 58 00:03:01.919 --> 00:03:04.479 a negative light. You know, if people are saying I'm 59 00:03:04.520 --> 00:03:08.240 buying or to the moon and stuff and it isn't sarcasm, 60 00:03:08.400 --> 00:03:11.280 right like, we're able to pick up that it's bullish. 61 00:03:11.560 --> 00:03:14.879 And long story short, we see this huge, huge spike 62 00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:18.919 in euphoria after this fifteen to twenty percent. I forget 63 00:03:18.960 --> 00:03:22.360 exactly what the rise was, but around that range bounce 64 00:03:22.599 --> 00:03:27.280 right here, and we're kind of flattening out right at 65 00:03:27.280 --> 00:03:30.919 that moment, and we warned people. We basically just said, 66 00:03:30.919 --> 00:03:33.199 if you're awaiting bitcoins a new all time high, it 67 00:03:33.319 --> 00:03:35.240 may need to wait until the crowd slows down their 68 00:03:35.240 --> 00:03:38.759 own expectations. There are currently one point eight bullish posts 69 00:03:38.840 --> 00:03:42.080 toward bitcoin for every one bearage post, and I'd say 70 00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:44.439 it averages maybe more like one point two to one. 71 00:03:44.479 --> 00:03:47.120 There's always a little bit of a bullish bias. People 72 00:03:47.159 --> 00:03:49.879 don't want to just be on social media talking natively 73 00:03:49.919 --> 00:03:53.319 about crypto. They're into it for a reason. They expect 74 00:03:53.319 --> 00:03:55.719 prices to go up long term. But when it goes up, 75 00:03:56.199 --> 00:03:58.840 you know, almost two to one like this, that's a 76 00:03:58.879 --> 00:04:02.639 sign that we're getting pretty overheated and people are putting 77 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:05.560 a little too much by pressure without any cell pressure. 78 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:08.520 And in a zero sum game you always need both 79 00:04:08.759 --> 00:04:12.599 or else prices tend to suddenly pivot and go the 80 00:04:12.639 --> 00:04:18.519 opposite direction. And that's exactly what happened. And now everyone's like, oh, 81 00:04:18.519 --> 00:04:20.839 maybe Santon, it sort of knows what we're talking about, 82 00:04:22.639 --> 00:04:26.160 and excuse me. The question is where are we now. 83 00:04:27.079 --> 00:04:30.279 There's so many different things we can look through. I'll 84 00:04:30.279 --> 00:04:32.839 try to get through some of what the crowd is 85 00:04:32.879 --> 00:04:36.439 doing at this moment. After the mini collapse that we 86 00:04:36.519 --> 00:04:39.759 saw as well as how the whales are accumulating. And 87 00:04:40.360 --> 00:04:43.439 you can see right here just off of prices mostly 88 00:04:43.480 --> 00:04:46.040 you see have read over the past week. This is 89 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:49.279 from last Wednesday to this Wednesday. It's only down to 90 00:04:49.360 --> 00:04:53.240 Modust two and a half percent. Ethereum down about six percent, 91 00:04:53.600 --> 00:04:57.360 but you can see especially assets like Manarow which are 92 00:04:57.839 --> 00:05:02.560 still getting delistings from major exchange right now, dropping sixteen percent. 93 00:05:03.079 --> 00:05:06.040 There's still some mean coins doing quite well. You can 94 00:05:06.040 --> 00:05:08.600 see shiba Enu up eight percent in the past week, 95 00:05:09.600 --> 00:05:14.360 Pepe up fourteen, up seventeen. We'll dive into how mean 96 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:18.879 coin performances are looking as of now towards the end 97 00:05:18.920 --> 00:05:23.279 of the call. But I think another thing, as we 98 00:05:23.480 --> 00:05:27.360 alluded to at the beginning, this is very much being 99 00:05:27.399 --> 00:05:30.800 impacted by the war concerns. We saw the same phenomenon 100 00:05:30.879 --> 00:05:33.639 going back to twenty twenty two with the Ukraine and 101 00:05:33.720 --> 00:05:38.160 Russia war news when that first broke back in I 102 00:05:38.199 --> 00:05:41.639 think oct what was it the early part of this year, 103 00:05:42.040 --> 00:05:45.959 something like April or May, when we really started to 104 00:05:45.959 --> 00:05:49.680 see the Israel and Palestine situation pick up for the 105 00:05:49.680 --> 00:05:55.720 first time and hit global mainstream. That's when we started 106 00:05:55.759 --> 00:05:57.720 to see a little bit of a dip there and 107 00:05:57.759 --> 00:06:03.240 now it's back. We're seeing a pretty big conscious consciousness 108 00:06:03.240 --> 00:06:07.399 spike in terms of the Middle East conflict and all 109 00:06:07.480 --> 00:06:13.360 of the top keywords Iran, Israel, war, missiles, East Middle 110 00:06:13.920 --> 00:06:16.480 these are all related to the war right now, and 111 00:06:16.519 --> 00:06:22.519 people are clearly concerned. When there's war, there are economic 112 00:06:22.680 --> 00:06:27.759 consequences that can trickle over to crypto. Some think that, 113 00:06:28.319 --> 00:06:31.199 you know, war can actually be a long term benefit 114 00:06:31.680 --> 00:06:35.120 to crypto. Maybe that's the case, depending on what kind 115 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:38.199 of war you're talking about, you know, from an ethical perspective, 116 00:06:38.279 --> 00:06:41.279 you know, we had sanceman. Hope everyone is okay and 117 00:06:41.279 --> 00:06:44.319 we're not rooting for wherever. But yes, I mean if 118 00:06:44.519 --> 00:06:52.240 if currencies collapse and more reliances on decentralized currency exchange, yes, 119 00:06:52.519 --> 00:06:56.399 I guess I see that point. But the usual immediate 120 00:06:56.439 --> 00:07:01.759 impact is we see a retrace and a bit of 121 00:07:01.800 --> 00:07:07.000 a drop due to economic consequences that usually translate over 122 00:07:07.000 --> 00:07:07.439 to crypto. 123 00:07:09.000 --> 00:07:13.199 Yeah, that absolutely makes sense. And you know, like you mentioned, 124 00:07:13.279 --> 00:07:15.360 we saw a bit of this with the Ukraine Russia 125 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:19.319 war and in the short term super volatile, but then 126 00:07:19.399 --> 00:07:24.199 eventually things went back to normal business. I want to 127 00:07:24.199 --> 00:07:26.120 make sure you use the right words here because not 128 00:07:26.120 --> 00:07:28.240 trying to make a light of war obviously, But the 129 00:07:28.319 --> 00:07:32.040 markets eventually stabilized and started moving up, and there could 130 00:07:32.040 --> 00:07:36.720 be factors where because governments do money printing to fund 131 00:07:36.759 --> 00:07:40.279 wars and all these different things, that that liquidity ends 132 00:07:40.360 --> 00:07:43.360 up finding its way through the markets, and you know, 133 00:07:43.600 --> 00:07:46.519 people get bullish because they're like, oh, the government's keep printing, 134 00:07:46.759 --> 00:07:48.240 I'm going to put my money in assets. 135 00:07:48.680 --> 00:07:55.000 Yeah, yeah, exactly. It's an interesting phenomenon and it's hard 136 00:07:55.040 --> 00:07:58.399 to say when these initial pieces of news break how 137 00:07:58.480 --> 00:08:02.519 long of an impact this will have on markets, But 138 00:08:03.959 --> 00:08:07.800 based on history, we usually see somewhere like at twenty 139 00:08:07.839 --> 00:08:12.800 four to seventy two hour reaction to the news, and 140 00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:16.519 then markets tend to normalize as long as things don't 141 00:08:16.560 --> 00:08:20.720 get even worse than what that initial news report was. Sure, 142 00:08:20.839 --> 00:08:22.560 so it can often be kind of a cell to 143 00:08:22.639 --> 00:08:23.959 rumor by the news situation. 144 00:08:25.480 --> 00:08:27.399 Can we look at what the whales are doing, you know, 145 00:08:27.439 --> 00:08:30.759 as far as are they buying, selling, how auty navigating 146 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:33.639 this type of activity that's taking place totally? 147 00:08:33.879 --> 00:08:38.840 Yeah, let's take a look. So in terms of this sorry, 148 00:08:38.879 --> 00:08:41.279 this tier right here, this is just the ten plus 149 00:08:41.559 --> 00:08:45.559 BTC wallets and their combined holdings still looking good. This 150 00:08:46.240 --> 00:08:48.919 is one thing that we're still optimistic about. There was 151 00:08:48.960 --> 00:08:51.440 a little bit of a flattening out period, and when 152 00:08:51.480 --> 00:08:55.559 whales actually take a break from accumulating, that's when we 153 00:08:55.679 --> 00:08:59.120 tend to see tops. This one was kind of a 154 00:08:59.120 --> 00:09:03.720 mid sized one, but after that drop back on the thirtieth, 155 00:09:03.759 --> 00:09:07.000 like right after it happened, we started to see more accumulation. 156 00:09:07.159 --> 00:09:11.320 It's not much, but they've added about a total of 157 00:09:11.360 --> 00:09:15.120 eight hundred and thirteen more BTC since that drop happened, 158 00:09:15.600 --> 00:09:18.360 and if we go back six months, they've added a 159 00:09:18.399 --> 00:09:22.879 total of about sixty four point three k bitcoin worth 160 00:09:23.360 --> 00:09:27.399 tens of billions of dollars, I believe. So it's still 161 00:09:27.399 --> 00:09:31.159 looking quite strong from sharks and whales right now. And 162 00:09:32.559 --> 00:09:34.360 I think we mentioned the last time we talked, But 163 00:09:34.919 --> 00:09:38.279 the only concern I have is that stable coins aren't 164 00:09:38.320 --> 00:09:43.480 really being accumulated, so the dry powder that implies that 165 00:09:43.639 --> 00:09:47.080 whales and sharks have more and more and more to 166 00:09:47.120 --> 00:09:50.200 swap for bitcoin. That's a little on the limited side 167 00:09:50.240 --> 00:09:53.799 because they've already been swapping so much tether and USD 168 00:09:53.960 --> 00:09:58.279 coin for bitcoin over the past two ish months or so. 169 00:09:58.559 --> 00:09:59.799 When they really started. 170 00:10:01.399 --> 00:10:04.159 Yeah, that makes sense. And I can imagine, you know, 171 00:10:04.679 --> 00:10:08.559 with the semi or mini euphoria that we saw last 172 00:10:08.559 --> 00:10:11.840 week with bitcoin going to sixty six, the wheels, if 173 00:10:11.879 --> 00:10:14.000 they're using data and so forth, they're going to sit 174 00:10:14.039 --> 00:10:15.679 back and say, we're not going to buy, let it drop, 175 00:10:15.840 --> 00:10:16.480 then we'll buy. 176 00:10:16.720 --> 00:10:21.000 We'll look for those opportunities. Yeah, tail is oldest times. 177 00:10:21.080 --> 00:10:23.600 It's kind of just this is the way they make 178 00:10:23.679 --> 00:10:26.879 money in addition to holding long term. When they want 179 00:10:26.919 --> 00:10:29.799 to add a little extra to their stacks, they can 180 00:10:30.399 --> 00:10:34.320 collectively push down prices or just decide to take a pause, 181 00:10:35.639 --> 00:10:38.840 you know, swap some bitcoin for a few yachts. I kid, 182 00:10:38.879 --> 00:10:42.200 of course, but you never know what they're doing. And 183 00:10:42.240 --> 00:10:45.559 then they wait for prices to drop and then buy 184 00:10:45.919 --> 00:10:49.600 back in prices, go back to pre yacht buy prices, 185 00:10:49.600 --> 00:10:53.720 and suddenly they have a free yacht. That's that's kind 186 00:10:53.720 --> 00:10:55.279 of how it works when you have that kind of 187 00:10:55.320 --> 00:10:58.919 capital in a sentiment driven sector like crypto. 188 00:10:59.519 --> 00:11:03.360 Absolutely. Is there any other data from a Bitcoin standpoint 189 00:11:03.360 --> 00:11:04.200 that do you want to highlight? 190 00:11:05.600 --> 00:11:09.159 Yeah, a few things. This is a bit of a 191 00:11:10.240 --> 00:11:13.679 look at some of the top caps together, beginning with 192 00:11:13.799 --> 00:11:18.039 Bitcoin's total amount of holders, so conversely to what the 193 00:11:18.039 --> 00:11:21.879 whales are doing. The total amount of non empty wallets, 194 00:11:22.320 --> 00:11:25.799 as you would imagine, is mostly comprised by tiny wallets. 195 00:11:25.799 --> 00:11:28.559 It's a lot easier to make a wallet that's the 196 00:11:28.600 --> 00:11:32.240 equivalent of one dollar as opposed to ten million dollars, 197 00:11:32.519 --> 00:11:37.080 and there's way more of them. So when you see drops, 198 00:11:37.639 --> 00:11:41.960 that actually is a sign that a rally can either 199 00:11:42.320 --> 00:11:48.039 begin or continue because these small holders are liquidating their 200 00:11:48.080 --> 00:11:52.000 wallets and the sharks and whales are scooping up those coins. 201 00:11:52.759 --> 00:11:56.360 Right now, it's still trickling up a little bit, but 202 00:11:56.440 --> 00:12:00.159 I'm noticing it's it's been flattening out since September. There 203 00:12:00.879 --> 00:12:07.440 seems to be some contentness from retail traders to take profit, 204 00:12:07.919 --> 00:12:12.240 maybe going back to August September of last year. I 205 00:12:12.279 --> 00:12:15.519 think October was when the rally really began to take off. 206 00:12:15.559 --> 00:12:21.080 But the point is we aren't seeing crazy amounts of 207 00:12:21.279 --> 00:12:25.679 retail wallets being created right now. So even though FOMO 208 00:12:25.799 --> 00:12:30.039 had been going nuts toward the end of September, we're 209 00:12:30.080 --> 00:12:35.080 not seeing an immense amount of new wallets being created 210 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:37.799 on a daily basis. I consider that a good long 211 00:12:37.919 --> 00:12:41.840 term sign. Naturally, you're going to see this growth over time. 212 00:12:41.919 --> 00:12:44.720 This is a four year look at bitcoin wallet growth, 213 00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:49.440 and for the good of the the network and crypto 214 00:12:49.480 --> 00:12:52.080 at large, you want to see more while it's been created. 215 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:55.240 But as long as it's not rapid growth like this, 216 00:12:55.480 --> 00:12:58.759 which would indicate fomo, we're usually in a pretty good place. 217 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:04.159 And then Ethereum doing its thing. It's it's much harder 218 00:13:04.200 --> 00:13:07.440 to tell with Ethereum because DeFi and staking just make 219 00:13:07.960 --> 00:13:11.519 Ethereum wallets so much easier to create. If I put 220 00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:14.399 these on a shared access Look at how much if 221 00:13:14.480 --> 00:13:17.679 the amount of non empty Etherium wallets dwarf the amount 222 00:13:17.720 --> 00:13:21.799 of non empty Bitcoin and tether wallets, it's just insane, 223 00:13:21.919 --> 00:13:24.360 more than twice the amount, almost two and a half 224 00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:27.519 times the amount of Etherium wallets compared to Bitcoin. 225 00:13:28.799 --> 00:13:34.000 Yeah, that definitely makes sense. Boy, I'm very curious as 226 00:13:34.000 --> 00:13:36.279 to what happens this month because you know, there's been 227 00:13:36.519 --> 00:13:41.440 a big sentiment of October October, right and yeah, yeah, 228 00:13:41.480 --> 00:13:44.480 I remember you talking about this in the last episode, 229 00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:48.720 that it becomes a self prophecy and whatever you want 230 00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:51.320 to call it. And you know, could could the herd 231 00:13:51.360 --> 00:13:55.039 being who could have been screaming October October and September 232 00:13:55.480 --> 00:13:58.559 was not as bad as history has shown as. 233 00:13:59.200 --> 00:14:00.759 But could that flip. 234 00:14:00.519 --> 00:14:04.080 Because people are so excited about October that October is 235 00:14:04.120 --> 00:14:04.919 not a great month. 236 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:11.000 Yeah. I stand by my theory that we have way 237 00:14:11.039 --> 00:14:13.320 too small of a sample size and crypto to be 238 00:14:13.399 --> 00:14:15.799 able to declare that one month is always good and 239 00:14:15.799 --> 00:14:20.080 one month is always bad. You know, It's one thing 240 00:14:20.759 --> 00:14:22.679 like if we say Fridays or a good day of 241 00:14:22.759 --> 00:14:27.840 the week, there's at least been a few thousand fridays 242 00:14:27.960 --> 00:14:31.440 if I'm calculating right, maybe somewhere near a thousand Fridays 243 00:14:31.440 --> 00:14:37.519 that have happened since crypto was introduced back in back 244 00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:41.000 in two thousand and eight, way back in pizza times. 245 00:14:41.480 --> 00:14:46.039 But when it comes to you know, looking at fifteen 246 00:14:46.120 --> 00:14:49.840 years of data and let's say eleven of those fifteen 247 00:14:50.440 --> 00:14:55.000 October's were really good, that's not nearly enough if you 248 00:14:55.039 --> 00:14:58.600 talk to any statistician to be able to say, okay, 249 00:14:58.759 --> 00:15:03.120 we can conf evidently declare that, you know, eleven out 250 00:15:03.120 --> 00:15:07.039 of fifteen Octobers means you can celebrate every October because 251 00:15:07.080 --> 00:15:10.679 crypto is going up, And especially when you start seeing 252 00:15:10.679 --> 00:15:14.039 words like October trending, that's a pretty good sign that 253 00:15:14.120 --> 00:15:19.200 the mainstream crowd is just kind of believing that this 254 00:15:19.279 --> 00:15:23.399 time of year is always bullish. You don't want them 255 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:26.159 to believe that if the average retail trader is just 256 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:31.720 buying into this narrative, it actually creates a higher probability 257 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:36.799 the opposite result coming true. So I would I would 258 00:15:36.840 --> 00:15:40.840 pump the brakes on your enthusiasm that crypto is going 259 00:15:40.879 --> 00:15:43.360 to go up this month simply because simply because of 260 00:15:43.360 --> 00:15:45.840 the timing, it could go up for plenty of reasons, 261 00:15:45.960 --> 00:15:48.320 and then if it does, people might think, oh, see, 262 00:15:48.600 --> 00:15:52.559 October is is validated. I knew that it would go up. 263 00:15:53.080 --> 00:15:55.840 It could go up for so many reasons, and we'd 264 00:15:55.840 --> 00:15:59.399 have to be kind of cautious when it comes to 265 00:16:00.519 --> 00:16:03.399 playing the timing game. I see all the time people 266 00:16:03.559 --> 00:16:07.159 saying I think that the all time high is going 267 00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:10.240 to happen in March of twenty twenty five, and we 268 00:16:10.279 --> 00:16:13.639 always scratch our heads and go, why if you believe, 269 00:16:14.159 --> 00:16:16.480 if you believe that crypto is just going to chill 270 00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:21.080 for now and then suddenly go up in March, why 271 00:16:21.080 --> 00:16:24.240 do you have any crypto at all? If you're that 272 00:16:24.399 --> 00:16:28.720 confident it's don't play the timing game, is what I say. 273 00:16:28.879 --> 00:16:35.559 Play play the long term situation because timing in the 274 00:16:35.600 --> 00:16:38.759 markets always, I'm sorry, the amount of time in the 275 00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:43.480 markets always beats timing, and any investor will tell you that, 276 00:16:43.639 --> 00:16:49.200 especially from an equities background, it's almost impossible to predict. 277 00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:52.000 And when we have something like the having going on 278 00:16:53.200 --> 00:16:58.080 in bitcoin earlier this year, remember it wasn't the month 279 00:16:58.200 --> 00:17:00.440 of the timing that crypto went up, it was like 280 00:17:00.519 --> 00:17:04.200 the six months before it. As people are anticipating it, 281 00:17:04.680 --> 00:17:08.559 So pay attention to the stuff that's going on deep 282 00:17:08.599 --> 00:17:12.960 into the future rather than saying, Okay, this event is 283 00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:16.039 happening now, I'm going to wait until like the day 284 00:17:16.079 --> 00:17:20.640 before it happens and then buy in, right. So that's 285 00:17:20.680 --> 00:17:24.200 that's my tangent about timing and how I think October 286 00:17:24.279 --> 00:17:25.920 is is kind of BS. 287 00:17:26.319 --> 00:17:29.839 Yeah, for sure. Definitely something for folks that keep in 288 00:17:29.839 --> 00:17:35.000 mind is good advice, and it goes past the you know, 289 00:17:35.039 --> 00:17:40.400 the hard mentality and your feelings and emotions and what 290 00:17:40.599 --> 00:17:42.799 you think the market's going to do. The best you 291 00:17:42.839 --> 00:17:45.519 look at the data and materious to your point, it 292 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:47.480 could be October, but it may not be. You have 293 00:17:47.519 --> 00:17:49.480 to be prepared for both, and it's best to look 294 00:17:49.480 --> 00:17:53.880 at data let's talk about XRP, because we got some 295 00:17:54.079 --> 00:17:57.279 big news yesterday that Bitwise Asset Management followed for the 296 00:17:57.319 --> 00:18:01.279 first XRP spoty TIF in the US. Obviously, this is 297 00:18:01.279 --> 00:18:04.920 a top ten asset by market cap and there's a 298 00:18:04.920 --> 00:18:08.039 lot of there's a big community. There's also a lot 299 00:18:08.039 --> 00:18:11.480 of controversy around it. There's obviously a deadline this week 300 00:18:11.680 --> 00:18:15.400 where the SEC may appeal the ruling or I should 301 00:18:15.400 --> 00:18:19.000 say early next week, and you know, we don't know 302 00:18:19.000 --> 00:18:20.839 what's going to happen there, but this is still some 303 00:18:20.880 --> 00:18:22.359 good news. What are you seeing for XRP. 304 00:18:23.279 --> 00:18:26.799 Yeah, from a social perspective, if we look at the 305 00:18:26.839 --> 00:18:29.599 top ten trending coins, these are the assets that are 306 00:18:29.640 --> 00:18:33.599 seeing the highest percentage of discussion rise compared to their 307 00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:38.039 usual discussion rate. Outside of Curve, which is seeing quite 308 00:18:38.039 --> 00:18:42.759 a bit of attention themselves. XRP is the highest in 309 00:18:42.960 --> 00:18:47.240 crypto in terms of discussion rate right now, so clearly 310 00:18:47.319 --> 00:18:50.720 people are quite excited about it. You can see right 311 00:18:50.759 --> 00:18:54.359 here in our AI generated explanation of why it's trending. 312 00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:58.400 Recent filings by Bitwise Asset Management for a spot XRP 313 00:18:58.480 --> 00:19:03.519 ETF generated significant interest, signaling a move towards legitimizing XRP 314 00:19:03.720 --> 00:19:07.559 as an investment vehicle. So yeah, clearly people are excited 315 00:19:07.559 --> 00:19:11.640 about it. Notice though, so this little mini chart shows 316 00:19:11.680 --> 00:19:16.359 the social volume of XRP over the past week. It 317 00:19:16.519 --> 00:19:19.480 peaked here a couple days ago, and then right after 318 00:19:19.519 --> 00:19:22.599 that prices collapse. And yes, part of this was because 319 00:19:22.640 --> 00:19:27.160 crypto overall started to see a retrace, but other assets 320 00:19:27.240 --> 00:19:29.720 did not see this sharp of a decline. And I 321 00:19:29.720 --> 00:19:32.000 think this is a perfect example of a buy the 322 00:19:32.079 --> 00:19:34.559 room or sell the news, where everyone thinks that this 323 00:19:34.640 --> 00:19:36.480 news is going to be good for XRP, and then 324 00:19:37.480 --> 00:19:40.720 the sharks and whales and the powers that be say no, no, 325 00:19:41.440 --> 00:19:45.839 we're not going to be pumping XRP yet. And this 326 00:19:46.359 --> 00:19:49.240 has happened with like Bitcoin's ETF at the beginning of 327 00:19:49.279 --> 00:19:52.960 twenty twenty four. I think it was May or June 328 00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:54.079 when Ethereum got there. 329 00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:54.279 Own. 330 00:19:55.160 --> 00:19:57.920 You see the news and everyone thinks it's bullish, and 331 00:19:57.960 --> 00:20:03.279 then suddenly we see a retrace. And this doesn't mean 332 00:20:03.680 --> 00:20:07.119 that the news isn't bullish. It just means that the 333 00:20:08.000 --> 00:20:12.680 over enthusiastic people got a little too excited here, bought 334 00:20:12.680 --> 00:20:14.920 at the top, and they need to be a little 335 00:20:14.920 --> 00:20:19.880 more patient before the effects of this news. Of course, 336 00:20:19.920 --> 00:20:22.039 this is still a rumor right now. They've only filed, 337 00:20:22.359 --> 00:20:25.079 but assuming it's approved, that's when you're really going to 338 00:20:25.119 --> 00:20:28.720 see a lot of bullish momentum. So it's it's basically 339 00:20:28.759 --> 00:20:35.119 people getting excited about speculative news right now. And I 340 00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:38.039 think it's it's a very classic by the rumor, sell 341 00:20:38.079 --> 00:20:39.279 the news situation. 342 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:44.799 Gotcha, Yeah, to your point, just news. It hasn't been approved. 343 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:47.240 You know, just because you follow something doesn't mean it's 344 00:20:47.240 --> 00:20:51.440 going to get approved. It's a good sign, but there's 345 00:20:51.480 --> 00:20:54.440 also this looming appeal coming in and. 346 00:20:54.440 --> 00:20:57.079 If we don't know what the SEC is going to do. Yeah, 347 00:20:57.160 --> 00:21:00.519 So I mean the probability of an ETF for XRP 348 00:21:00.640 --> 00:21:02.359 is a lot higher than it was a week ago 349 00:21:02.559 --> 00:21:05.200 because now we have a filing. So that's great if 350 00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:11.799 you're an XRP fan, Just don't get overly excited, especially 351 00:21:11.880 --> 00:21:16.400 when there's so much news that can just manipulate markets. 352 00:21:16.440 --> 00:21:18.559 You never know with some of these media sources who 353 00:21:19.200 --> 00:21:23.000 put out a report that makes something seem probable when 354 00:21:23.039 --> 00:21:27.759 it's still a far way away. But at least according 355 00:21:27.759 --> 00:21:31.160 to the metrics right now, we saw a gigantic amount 356 00:21:31.160 --> 00:21:34.680 of transaction volume on this news It was about a 357 00:21:34.720 --> 00:21:39.240 three month high here and then going down. Similarly with circulation. 358 00:21:39.400 --> 00:21:42.119 This is the amount of unique tokens moving on a 359 00:21:42.160 --> 00:21:45.279 daily basis, and we saw one point three to five 360 00:21:45.400 --> 00:21:49.880 billion XRP being moved on September thirtieth. That was the 361 00:21:49.960 --> 00:21:54.319 highest since August first. And then this one might be 362 00:21:54.400 --> 00:21:57.279 key right here. I actually like to see that the 363 00:21:57.440 --> 00:22:00.880 average returns of addresses that been active in the past 364 00:22:00.920 --> 00:22:05.720 thirty days, you're back in the red, down about two percent. 365 00:22:06.400 --> 00:22:11.079 So there's actually slightly less risk than average. If you 366 00:22:11.119 --> 00:22:15.440 were to buy during any time during xrp's existence as 367 00:22:15.440 --> 00:22:19.799 a publicly traded coin, you'd be buying while the average 368 00:22:19.839 --> 00:22:24.039 traders are slightly underwater on the short to mid term timescale, 369 00:22:24.240 --> 00:22:26.559 that's a good thing. From a three to sixty five 370 00:22:26.640 --> 00:22:30.839 day perspective, they're just barely above zero percent. So if 371 00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:33.599 we start to see this one get a little below zero, 372 00:22:34.559 --> 00:22:37.880 these are the ultimate times to buy. Like we saw 373 00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:41.599 about four weeks ago on September sixth, they were both 374 00:22:41.680 --> 00:22:45.200 way underwater the short and long term returns, and then 375 00:22:45.240 --> 00:22:48.720 suddenly we see this huge spike. And that's I mean 376 00:22:48.839 --> 00:22:53.400 almost every time when you see average returns well below 377 00:22:53.519 --> 00:22:57.680 zero percent. It's such a great signal that buying is 378 00:22:58.759 --> 00:23:03.799 a very likely good, good strategy, and we're at least 379 00:23:03.839 --> 00:23:09.200 in a situation where XP looks like it's leaning toward 380 00:23:09.279 --> 00:23:11.240 a buy candidate once again. 381 00:23:12.039 --> 00:23:16.799 M hmm. Yeah, it's fascinating and how these things play 382 00:23:16.839 --> 00:23:19.119 out with sentiment and buier room or sell, the news 383 00:23:19.119 --> 00:23:22.559 events and so forth. And that's where this data is 384 00:23:22.599 --> 00:23:25.799 so helpful to show you where they might be buying 385 00:23:25.799 --> 00:23:30.200 opportunities and when possibly to sell based on what's happening 386 00:23:30.200 --> 00:23:35.079 in the market. Any other data you know in regards 387 00:23:35.119 --> 00:23:38.119 to XRP, or maybe we could jump to all coins 388 00:23:38.160 --> 00:23:40.799 in like different categories like meme coins and so forth. 389 00:23:41.240 --> 00:23:43.480 Yeah, I just wanted to point out that XRP is 390 00:23:43.519 --> 00:23:45.920 pretty neutral in terms of sentiments, So even though it's 391 00:23:45.920 --> 00:23:48.799 getting a lot of discussion, I think it's a polarizing topic. 392 00:23:49.279 --> 00:23:52.960 Otherwise we'd be seeing super bullish spikes like this where 393 00:23:53.000 --> 00:23:56.839 everyone's just talking about it positively. So that's a good 394 00:23:56.880 --> 00:24:00.599 sign as well. I'd keep that in mind. It's not 395 00:24:00.759 --> 00:24:03.440 just about the amount of discussion, it's about like what 396 00:24:03.680 --> 00:24:08.319 ratio of the discussions are bullish versus bearish. So there's 397 00:24:08.319 --> 00:24:10.799 still kind of a tug of war going on between 398 00:24:10.839 --> 00:24:16.400 bulls and bears, probably because this correction has pulled this down. 399 00:24:16.640 --> 00:24:19.759 I bet right after the announcement of the ETF filing 400 00:24:19.799 --> 00:24:22.640 it was way like super bullish like here, and then 401 00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:25.200