Speaker 1: About a total of eight hundred and thirteen more vpc
Speaker 1: since that drop happened, and if we go back six months,
Speaker 1: they've added a total of about sixty four point three
Speaker 1: k bitcoin worth tens of billions of dollars, I believe,
Speaker 1: So it's it's still looking quite strong from sharks and
Speaker 1: wales right now. And I think we mentioned it the
Speaker 1: last time we talked about The only concern I have
Speaker 1: is that stable coins aren't really being accumulated, so the
Speaker 1: dry powder that implies that whales and sharks have more
Speaker 1: and more and more to swap for bitcoin. That's a
Speaker 1: little on the limited side because they've already been swapping
Speaker 1: so much tether and USD coin.
Speaker 2: Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm your host, Tony Edward,
Speaker 2: and I have Brian from Sentiment with me, and of course, guys,
Speaker 2: you know we're going to do a deep dive into
Speaker 2: the metrics in what's happening with bitcoin and all coins
Speaker 2: and even XRP. As we got news that the XRP
Speaker 2: or the first XRP ETF SPOTTYTF has been following in
Speaker 2: the United States by bit Wise Brian. Great to see you,
Speaker 2: Great to see you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, lots going on. We obviously had a correction in
Speaker 1: the past three to four days after one of the
Speaker 1: more predictable tops. I wouldn't say it was just an
Speaker 1: obvious given, but Friday was kind of when we were
Speaker 1: seeing peak euphoria. And sure enough, you know, about twenty
Speaker 1: four hours after that, midway through the weekend, we start
Speaker 1: to see this nosedive from a lot of crypto prices.
Speaker 1: So many people are trying to figure out what to
Speaker 1: do next, and that's what we'll try to do here
Speaker 1: on the call. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And you know, as it relates a Bitcoin, I've
Speaker 2: been telling people like, be cautiously optimistic. We don't know
Speaker 2: if the bottom is in yet, and there could still
Speaker 2: be more volatility before we actually start breaking out to
Speaker 2: new all time highs. And then Brian to your boy, like,
Speaker 2: you're thrown into the mix a bunch of macro news
Speaker 2: about war and this and that. It just adds fuel
Speaker 2: to the fire.
Speaker 1: Totally. Yeah. I mean there's there's always real world news
Speaker 1: that can throw a wrench into what the you know,
Speaker 1: probable direction was going to be in crypto, and I
Speaker 1: think with the news that kind of broke in the
Speaker 1: Middle East, there's a lot more reasons than just whales
Speaker 1: and you know, fomo and fud among the crowd that
Speaker 1: are causing price havoc right now, So let's.
Speaker 2: Take a look at the data and what is it
Speaker 2: telling us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, So we'll start with just a quick
Speaker 1: update on what we saw Friday. We posted this out
Speaker 1: to the public. It actually went super viral. It was
Speaker 1: a little unexpected that it got quite as much attention
Speaker 1: as it did, but we basically said, you know, sentiment
Speaker 1: is at a year high in terms of bullishness. This
Speaker 1: is the ratio of positive comments versus negative comments. Using
Speaker 1: our algorithm, which is not a perfect science, but a
Speaker 1: pretty good one, we're able to pick up if someone
Speaker 1: is you know, mentioned bitcoin in a positive light versus
Speaker 1: a negative light. You know, if people are saying I'm
Speaker 1: buying or to the moon and stuff and it isn't sarcasm,
Speaker 1: right like, we're able to pick up that it's bullish.
Speaker 1: And long story short, we see this huge, huge spike
Speaker 1: in euphoria after this fifteen to twenty percent. I forget
Speaker 1: exactly what the rise was, but around that range bounce
Speaker 1: right here, and we're kind of flattening out right at
Speaker 1: that moment, and we warned people. We basically just said,
Speaker 1: if you're awaiting bitcoins a new all time high, it
Speaker 1: may need to wait until the crowd slows down their
Speaker 1: own expectations. There are currently one point eight bullish posts
Speaker 1: toward bitcoin for every one bearage post, and I'd say
Speaker 1: it averages maybe more like one point two to one.
Speaker 1: There's always a little bit of a bullish bias. People
Speaker 1: don't want to just be on social media talking natively
Speaker 1: about crypto. They're into it for a reason. They expect
Speaker 1: prices to go up long term. But when it goes up,
Speaker 1: you know, almost two to one like this, that's a
Speaker 1: sign that we're getting pretty overheated and people are putting
Speaker 1: a little too much by pressure without any cell pressure.
Speaker 1: And in a zero sum game you always need both
Speaker 1: or else prices tend to suddenly pivot and go the
Speaker 1: opposite direction. And that's exactly what happened. And now everyone's like, oh,
Speaker 1: maybe Santon, it sort of knows what we're talking about,
Speaker 1: and excuse me. The question is where are we now.
Speaker 1: There's so many different things we can look through. I'll
Speaker 1: try to get through some of what the crowd is
Speaker 1: doing at this moment. After the mini collapse that we
Speaker 1: saw as well as how the whales are accumulating. And
Speaker 1: you can see right here just off of prices mostly
Speaker 1: you see have read over the past week. This is
Speaker 1: from last Wednesday to this Wednesday. It's only down to
Speaker 1: Modust two and a half percent. Ethereum down about six percent,
Speaker 1: but you can see especially assets like Manarow which are
Speaker 1: still getting delistings from major exchange right now, dropping sixteen percent.
Speaker 1: There's still some mean coins doing quite well. You can
Speaker 1: see shiba Enu up eight percent in the past week,
Speaker 1: Pepe up fourteen, up seventeen. We'll dive into how mean
Speaker 1: coin performances are looking as of now towards the end
Speaker 1: of the call. But I think another thing, as we
Speaker 1: alluded to at the beginning, this is very much being
Speaker 1: impacted by the war concerns. We saw the same phenomenon
Speaker 1: going back to twenty twenty two with the Ukraine and
Speaker 1: Russia war news when that first broke back in I
Speaker 1: think oct what was it the early part of this year,
Speaker 1: something like April or May, when we really started to
Speaker 1: see the Israel and Palestine situation pick up for the
Speaker 1: first time and hit global mainstream. That's when we started
Speaker 1: to see a little bit of a dip there and
Speaker 1: now it's back. We're seeing a pretty big conscious consciousness
Speaker 1: spike in terms of the Middle East conflict and all
Speaker 1: of the top keywords Iran, Israel, war, missiles, East Middle
Speaker 1: these are all related to the war right now, and
Speaker 1: people are clearly concerned. When there's war, there are economic
Speaker 1: consequences that can trickle over to crypto. Some think that,
Speaker 1: you know, war can actually be a long term benefit
Speaker 1: to crypto. Maybe that's the case, depending on what kind
Speaker 1: of war you're talking about, you know, from an ethical perspective,
Speaker 1: you know, we had sanceman. Hope everyone is okay and
Speaker 1: we're not rooting for wherever. But yes, I mean if
Speaker 1: if currencies collapse and more reliances on decentralized currency exchange, yes,
Speaker 1: I guess I see that point. But the usual immediate
Speaker 1: impact is we see a retrace and a bit of
Speaker 1: a drop due to economic consequences that usually translate over
Speaker 1: to crypto.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that absolutely makes sense. And you know, like you mentioned,
Speaker 2: we saw a bit of this with the Ukraine Russia
Speaker 2: war and in the short term super volatile, but then
Speaker 2: eventually things went back to normal business. I want to
Speaker 2: make sure you use the right words here because not
Speaker 2: trying to make a light of war obviously, But the
Speaker 2: markets eventually stabilized and started moving up, and there could
Speaker 2: be factors where because governments do money printing to fund
Speaker 2: wars and all these different things, that that liquidity ends
Speaker 2: up finding its way through the markets, and you know,
Speaker 2: people get bullish because they're like, oh, the government's keep printing,
Speaker 2: I'm going to put my money in assets.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly. It's an interesting phenomenon and it's hard
Speaker 1: to say when these initial pieces of news break how
Speaker 1: long of an impact this will have on markets, But
Speaker 1: based on history, we usually see somewhere like at twenty
Speaker 1: four to seventy two hour reaction to the news, and
Speaker 1: then markets tend to normalize as long as things don't
Speaker 1: get even worse than what that initial news report was. Sure,
Speaker 1: so it can often be kind of a cell to
Speaker 1: rumor by the news situation.
Speaker 2: Can we look at what the whales are doing, you know,
Speaker 2: as far as are they buying, selling, how auty navigating
Speaker 2: this type of activity that's taking place totally?
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's take a look. So in terms of this sorry,
Speaker 1: this tier right here, this is just the ten plus
Speaker 1: BTC wallets and their combined holdings still looking good. This
Speaker 1: is one thing that we're still optimistic about. There was
Speaker 1: a little bit of a flattening out period, and when
Speaker 1: whales actually take a break from accumulating, that's when we
Speaker 1: tend to see tops. This one was kind of a
Speaker 1: mid sized one, but after that drop back on the thirtieth,
Speaker 1: like right after it happened, we started to see more accumulation.
Speaker 1: It's not much, but they've added about a total of
Speaker 1: eight hundred and thirteen more BTC since that drop happened,
Speaker 1: and if we go back six months, they've added a
Speaker 1: total of about sixty four point three k bitcoin worth
Speaker 1: tens of billions of dollars, I believe. So it's still
Speaker 1: looking quite strong from sharks and whales right now. And
Speaker 1: I think we mentioned the last time we talked, But
Speaker 1: the only concern I have is that stable coins aren't
Speaker 1: really being accumulated, so the dry powder that implies that
Speaker 1: whales and sharks have more and more and more to
Speaker 1: swap for bitcoin. That's a little on the limited side
Speaker 1: because they've already been swapping so much tether and USD
Speaker 1: coin for bitcoin over the past two ish months or so.
Speaker 1: When they really started.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense. And I can imagine, you know,
Speaker 2: with the semi or mini euphoria that we saw last
Speaker 2: week with bitcoin going to sixty six, the wheels, if
Speaker 2: they're using data and so forth, they're going to sit
Speaker 2: back and say, we're not going to buy, let it drop,
Speaker 2: then we'll buy.
Speaker 1: We'll look for those opportunities. Yeah, tail is oldest times.
Speaker 1: It's kind of just this is the way they make
Speaker 1: money in addition to holding long term. When they want
Speaker 1: to add a little extra to their stacks, they can
Speaker 1: collectively push down prices or just decide to take a pause,
Speaker 1: you know, swap some bitcoin for a few yachts. I kid,
Speaker 1: of course, but you never know what they're doing. And
Speaker 1: then they wait for prices to drop and then buy
Speaker 1: back in prices, go back to pre yacht buy prices,
Speaker 1: and suddenly they have a free yacht. That's that's kind
Speaker 1: of how it works when you have that kind of
Speaker 1: capital in a sentiment driven sector like crypto.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Is there any other data from a Bitcoin standpoint
Speaker 2: that do you want to highlight?
Speaker 1: Yeah, a few things. This is a bit of a
Speaker 1: look at some of the top caps together, beginning with
Speaker 1: Bitcoin's total amount of holders, so conversely to what the
Speaker 1: whales are doing. The total amount of non empty wallets,
Speaker 1: as you would imagine, is mostly comprised by tiny wallets.
Speaker 1: It's a lot easier to make a wallet that's the
Speaker 1: equivalent of one dollar as opposed to ten million dollars,
Speaker 1: and there's way more of them. So when you see drops,
Speaker 1: that actually is a sign that a rally can either
Speaker 1: begin or continue because these small holders are liquidating their
Speaker 1: wallets and the sharks and whales are scooping up those coins.
Speaker 1: Right now, it's still trickling up a little bit, but
Speaker 1: I'm noticing it's it's been flattening out since September. There
Speaker 1: seems to be some contentness from retail traders to take profit,
Speaker 1: maybe going back to August September of last year. I
Speaker 1: think October was when the rally really began to take off.
Speaker 1: But the point is we aren't seeing crazy amounts of
Speaker 1: retail wallets being created right now. So even though FOMO
Speaker 1: had been going nuts toward the end of September, we're
Speaker 1: not seeing an immense amount of new wallets being created
Speaker 1: on a daily basis. I consider that a good long
Speaker 1: term sign. Naturally, you're going to see this growth over time.
Speaker 1: This is a four year look at bitcoin wallet growth,
Speaker 1: and for the good of the the network and crypto
Speaker 1: at large, you want to see more while it's been created.
Speaker 1: But as long as it's not rapid growth like this,
Speaker 1: which would indicate fomo, we're usually in a pretty good place.
Speaker 1: And then Ethereum doing its thing. It's it's much harder
Speaker 1: to tell with Ethereum because DeFi and staking just make
Speaker 1: Ethereum wallets so much easier to create. If I put
Speaker 1: these on a shared access Look at how much if
Speaker 1: the amount of non empty Etherium wallets dwarf the amount
Speaker 1: of non empty Bitcoin and tether wallets, it's just insane,
Speaker 1: more than twice the amount, almost two and a half
Speaker 1: times the amount of Etherium wallets compared to Bitcoin.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that definitely makes sense. Boy, I'm very curious as
Speaker 2: to what happens this month because you know, there's been
Speaker 2: a big sentiment of October October, right and yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: I remember you talking about this in the last episode,
Speaker 2: that it becomes a self prophecy and whatever you want
Speaker 2: to call it. And you know, could could the herd
Speaker 2: being who could have been screaming October October and September
Speaker 2: was not as bad as history has shown as.
Speaker 1: But could that flip.
Speaker 2: Because people are so excited about October that October is
Speaker 2: not a great month.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I stand by my theory that we have way
Speaker 1: too small of a sample size and crypto to be
Speaker 1: able to declare that one month is always good and
Speaker 1: one month is always bad. You know, It's one thing
Speaker 1: like if we say Fridays or a good day of
Speaker 1: the week, there's at least been a few thousand fridays
Speaker 1: if I'm calculating right, maybe somewhere near a thousand Fridays
Speaker 1: that have happened since crypto was introduced back in back
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, way back in pizza times.
Speaker 1: But when it comes to you know, looking at fifteen
Speaker 1: years of data and let's say eleven of those fifteen
Speaker 1: October's were really good, that's not nearly enough if you
Speaker 1: talk to any statistician to be able to say, okay,
Speaker 1: we can conf evidently declare that, you know, eleven out
Speaker 1: of fifteen Octobers means you can celebrate every October because
Speaker 1: crypto is going up, And especially when you start seeing
Speaker 1: words like October trending, that's a pretty good sign that
Speaker 1: the mainstream crowd is just kind of believing that this
Speaker 1: time of year is always bullish. You don't want them
Speaker 1: to believe that if the average retail trader is just
Speaker 1: buying into this narrative, it actually creates a higher probability
Speaker 1: the opposite result coming true. So I would I would
Speaker 1: pump the brakes on your enthusiasm that crypto is going
Speaker 1: to go up this month simply because simply because of
Speaker 1: the timing, it could go up for plenty of reasons,
Speaker 1: and then if it does, people might think, oh, see,
Speaker 1: October is is validated. I knew that it would go up.
Speaker 1: It could go up for so many reasons, and we'd
Speaker 1: have to be kind of cautious when it comes to
Speaker 1: playing the timing game. I see all the time people
Speaker 1: saying I think that the all time high is going
Speaker 1: to happen in March of twenty twenty five, and we
Speaker 1: always scratch our heads and go, why if you believe,
Speaker 1: if you believe that crypto is just going to chill
Speaker 1: for now and then suddenly go up in March, why
Speaker 1: do you have any crypto at all? If you're that
Speaker 1: confident it's don't play the timing game, is what I say.
Speaker 1: Play play the long term situation because timing in the
Speaker 1: markets always, I'm sorry, the amount of time in the
Speaker 1: markets always beats timing, and any investor will tell you that,
Speaker 1: especially from an equities background, it's almost impossible to predict.
Speaker 1: And when we have something like the having going on
Speaker 1: in bitcoin earlier this year, remember it wasn't the month
Speaker 1: of the timing that crypto went up, it was like
Speaker 1: the six months before it. As people are anticipating it,
Speaker 1: So pay attention to the stuff that's going on deep
Speaker 1: into the future rather than saying, Okay, this event is
Speaker 1: happening now, I'm going to wait until like the day
Speaker 1: before it happens and then buy in, right. So that's
Speaker 1: that's my tangent about timing and how I think October
Speaker 1: is is kind of BS.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. Definitely something for folks that keep in
Speaker 2: mind is good advice, and it goes past the you know,
Speaker 2: the hard mentality and your feelings and emotions and what
Speaker 2: you think the market's going to do. The best you
Speaker 2: look at the data and materious to your point, it
Speaker 2: could be October, but it may not be. You have
Speaker 2: to be prepared for both, and it's best to look
Speaker 2: at data let's talk about XRP, because we got some
Speaker 2: big news yesterday that Bitwise Asset Management followed for the
Speaker 2: first XRP spoty TIF in the US. Obviously, this is
Speaker 2: a top ten asset by market cap and there's a
Speaker 2: lot of there's a big community. There's also a lot
Speaker 2: of controversy around it. There's obviously a deadline this week
Speaker 2: where the SEC may appeal the ruling or I should
Speaker 2: say early next week, and you know, we don't know
Speaker 2: what's going to happen there, but this is still some
Speaker 2: good news. What are you seeing for XRP.
Speaker 1: Yeah, from a social perspective, if we look at the
Speaker 1: top ten trending coins, these are the assets that are
Speaker 1: seeing the highest percentage of discussion rise compared to their
Speaker 1: usual discussion rate. Outside of Curve, which is seeing quite
Speaker 1: a bit of attention themselves. XRP is the highest in
Speaker 1: crypto in terms of discussion rate right now, so clearly
Speaker 1: people are quite excited about it. You can see right
Speaker 1: here in our AI generated explanation of why it's trending.
Speaker 1: Recent filings by Bitwise Asset Management for a spot XRP
Speaker 1: ETF generated significant interest, signaling a move towards legitimizing XRP
Speaker 1: as an investment vehicle. So yeah, clearly people are excited
Speaker 1: about it. Notice though, so this little mini chart shows
Speaker 1: the social volume of XRP over the past week. It
Speaker 1: peaked here a couple days ago, and then right after
Speaker 1: that prices collapse. And yes, part of this was because
Speaker 1: crypto overall started to see a retrace, but other assets
Speaker 1: did not see this sharp of a decline. And I
Speaker 1: think this is a perfect example of a buy the
Speaker 1: room or sell the news, where everyone thinks that this
Speaker 1: news is going to be good for XRP, and then
Speaker 1: the sharks and whales and the powers that be say no, no,
Speaker 1: we're not going to be pumping XRP yet. And this
Speaker 1: has happened with like Bitcoin's ETF at the beginning of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I think it was May or June
Speaker 1: when Ethereum got there.
Speaker 2: Own.
Speaker 1: You see the news and everyone thinks it's bullish, and
Speaker 1: then suddenly we see a retrace. And this doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that the news isn't bullish. It just means that the
Speaker 1: over enthusiastic people got a little too excited here, bought
Speaker 1: at the top, and they need to be a little
Speaker 1: more patient before the effects of this news. Of course,
Speaker 1: this is still a rumor right now. They've only filed,
Speaker 1: but assuming it's approved, that's when you're really going to
Speaker 1: see a lot of bullish momentum. So it's it's basically
Speaker 1: people getting excited about speculative news right now. And I
Speaker 1: think it's it's a very classic by the rumor, sell
Speaker 1: the news situation.
Speaker 2: Gotcha, Yeah, to your point, just news. It hasn't been approved.
Speaker 2: You know, just because you follow something doesn't mean it's
Speaker 2: going to get approved. It's a good sign, but there's
Speaker 2: also this looming appeal coming in and.
Speaker 1: If we don't know what the SEC is going to do. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I mean the probability of an ETF for XRP
Speaker 1: is a lot higher than it was a week ago
Speaker 1: because now we have a filing. So that's great if
Speaker 1: you're an XRP fan, Just don't get overly excited, especially
Speaker 1: when there's so much news that can just manipulate markets.
Speaker 1: You never know with some of these media sources who
Speaker 1: put out a report that makes something seem probable when
Speaker 1: it's still a far way away. But at least according
Speaker 1: to the metrics right now, we saw a gigantic amount
Speaker 1: of transaction volume on this news It was about a
Speaker 1: three month high here and then going down. Similarly with circulation.
Speaker 1: This is the amount of unique tokens moving on a
Speaker 1: daily basis, and we saw one point three to five
Speaker 1: billion XRP being moved on September thirtieth. That was the
Speaker 1: highest since August first. And then this one might be
Speaker 1: key right here. I actually like to see that the
Speaker 1: average returns of addresses that been active in the past
Speaker 1: thirty days, you're back in the red, down about two percent.
Speaker 1: So there's actually slightly less risk than average. If you
Speaker 1: were to buy during any time during xrp's existence as
Speaker 1: a publicly traded coin, you'd be buying while the average
Speaker 1: traders are slightly underwater on the short to mid term timescale,
Speaker 1: that's a good thing. From a three to sixty five
Speaker 1: day perspective, they're just barely above zero percent. So if
Speaker 1: we start to see this one get a little below zero,
Speaker 1: these are the ultimate times to buy. Like we saw
Speaker 1: about four weeks ago on September sixth, they were both
Speaker 1: way underwater the short and long term returns, and then
Speaker 1: suddenly we see this huge spike. And that's I mean
Speaker 1: almost every time when you see average returns well below
Speaker 1: zero percent. It's such a great signal that buying is
Speaker 1: a very likely good, good strategy, and we're at least
Speaker 1: in a situation where XP looks like it's leaning toward
Speaker 1: a buy candidate once again.
Speaker 2: M hmm. Yeah, it's fascinating and how these things play
Speaker 2: out with sentiment and buier room or sell, the news
Speaker 2: events and so forth. And that's where this data is
Speaker 2: so helpful to show you where they might be buying
Speaker 2: opportunities and when possibly to sell based on what's happening
Speaker 2: in the market. Any other data you know in regards
Speaker 2: to XRP, or maybe we could jump to all coins
Speaker 2: in like different categories like meme coins and so forth.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just wanted to point out that XRP is
Speaker 1: pretty neutral in terms of sentiments, So even though it's
Speaker 1: getting a lot of discussion, I think it's a polarizing topic.
Speaker 1: Otherwise we'd be seeing super bullish spikes like this where
Speaker 1: everyone's just talking about it positively. So that's a good
Speaker 1: sign as well. I'd keep that in mind. It's not
Speaker 1: just about the amount of discussion, it's about like what
Speaker 1: ratio of the discussions are bullish versus bearish. So there's
Speaker 1: still kind of a tug of war going on between
Speaker 1: bulls and bears, probably because this correction has pulled this down.
Speaker 1: I bet right after the announcement of the ETF filing
Speaker 1: it was way like super bullish like here, and then
Speaker 1: people saw the retrace and said, oh, okay, I guess
Speaker 1: it's not a big deal. So I find that interesting too. Okay,
Speaker 1: So in terms of meme coins, I've got this chart.
Speaker 1: This is pretty noisy, So I'm going to turn everything
Speaker 1: into one week bars instead of one day.
Speaker 2: Yeah, some of these meme coins have been starting to
Speaker 2: gain some life again, and I think you highlight its
Speaker 2: on like ship and bonk and so forth.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, over the past week there's still some
Speaker 1: of the better performers. And we actually put out an
Speaker 1: insight yesterday about dogecoin looking a bit intriguing on the
Speaker 1: bullish end. There's no guarantees and this is an investment advice,
Speaker 1: but we do see that whale activity has been particularly
Speaker 1: heavy for dogecoin. Right now. This is like three day bars,
Speaker 1: just to kind of give broad looks at what the
Speaker 1: metrics are doing. Twelve hundred and three whale transactions at
Speaker 1: the end of September that was the highest in about
Speaker 1: four months, and then we're followed up with the largest
Speaker 1: amount of daily active addresses since early April, seven month high.
Speaker 1: This tells me that there's a lot of buying the
Speaker 1: dip going on, and it's not just retail traders. This
Speaker 1: blue bar here indicates that even after Whales sold the top,
Speaker 1: that's clear based on this bar right before the green
Speaker 1: turned red here, Whales are still being very active even
Speaker 1: on this downtrend. So what is most likely happening is
Speaker 1: they sold and then bought back in really quickly, and
Speaker 1: I like the look of that. And of course, doche
Speaker 1: coin does have some control over other meme coins. It
Speaker 1: works a little like Bitcoin, but for memes specifically, where
Speaker 1: doge tends to go first, and the profits of doge
Speaker 1: coin redistribute into other meme coins like bonk with shiba
Speaker 1: Enu and others. So if you're into meme coins, you
Speaker 1: should be rooting for doge to have a little bit
Speaker 1: of a rebound here over the next few days or
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, and that can very well start
Speaker 1: another cycle of meme coin excitement.
Speaker 2: Gotcha, Yeah, it's interesting. I'm almost I have a personal
Speaker 2: bias being fully transparent. I'm not a big fan of
Speaker 2: meme coins. If I see liquidity going to them, I
Speaker 2: kind of get annoyed.
Speaker 1: But now when you say, by the way, and I
Speaker 1: respect that take. I think a lot of people have
Speaker 1: very mixed opinions about them and whether they should be
Speaker 1: part of the crypto ecosystem. But is it is it
Speaker 1: more so what they offer to crypto or is it,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe like the volume gets pushed into meme
Speaker 1: coins when it would be better served to stay in bitcoin.
Speaker 1: What's your what's your opinion on why meme coins aren't
Speaker 1: very great? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean one, as you mentioned the liquidity, it sucks
Speaker 2: liquidity away from Bitcoin, yeah. And second it takes away
Speaker 2: some liquidy from the blue chip all coins. I know,
Speaker 2: ultimately there's some rotation from memes to blue chips, like
Speaker 2: like your cardon or like your XRP and so forth. Right,
Speaker 2: But also some of these are like projects that pop
Speaker 2: up overnight. I'm not putting Goat and ship in there,
Speaker 2: but you know the ones that pop up on base
Speaker 2: or Solana and then they go nuts and then you
Speaker 2: have all these people promoting it on social media. I
Speaker 2: find that so annoying because I know what it is
Speaker 2: and I know the high possibility of a rug that
Speaker 2: can take place totally.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it really is the perfect example of the
Speaker 1: short term, more chilly community and where they kind of live.
Speaker 1: It's through meme coins that don't really have developers, don't
Speaker 1: really have real life purposes in most cases, not all.
Speaker 1: But it's kind of a matter of what your approach
Speaker 1: is to crypto. If you're in it for the long term,
Speaker 1: you're probably not the biggest meme coin fan. If you're
Speaker 1: in it for a quick buck and more of the
Speaker 1: gamble aspect and very sentiment driven investments that are perpetuated
Speaker 1: by trading groups that you may or may not be
Speaker 1: connected to, then meme coins might be more up your alley.
Speaker 1: But it's regardless of any of our opinions, it's undeniable
Speaker 1: that they do have an effect on the overall crypto
Speaker 1: ecosystem and they can't simply be ignored, even if you
Speaker 1: never want to touch them with a ten foot pool.
Speaker 2: Yeah for sure. Well we'll see man, hopefully. Don't get
Speaker 2: me wrong. And I know some people home meme coins.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying I don't want you guys to make
Speaker 2: money who are watching and listening. But you know, hopefully
Speaker 2: it's not as what we saw earlier this year, where
Speaker 2: there's a tonnel liquidity, you know, almost front running to market,
Speaker 2: the means of front running the market a bit. You know,
Speaker 2: it's more balanced this time around, I guess as we
Speaker 2: get later into the bowl market totally.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's really the predictability that's the hard thing
Speaker 1: with meme coins. And you know, we don't give investment
Speaker 1: advice as it is, but if we do, you know,
Speaker 1: provide insights. The least confidence that we have is usually
Speaker 1: in the meme coin sector because of the lack of
Speaker 1: long term development that we see in them that show
Speaker 1: that they have long term sustainability, which makes them more
Speaker 1: of a crapshoot. So take that as you will. But
Speaker 1: what we can say is that the social dominance is
Speaker 1: huge right now. It's it's spiked to the highest level
Speaker 1: of interest in about four months here, and yes, that
Speaker 1: that is to your point, Tony, at the expense of
Speaker 1: layer ones and layer twos that are seeing very declining
Speaker 1: levels of discussion right now. So this is a bit
Speaker 1: of a warning sign from crypto in general. When you
Speaker 1: see meme coin discussions get super high, it's usually a
Speaker 1: reflection of just the overall crypto crowd getting over the euphoric.
Speaker 1: So we saw like Bitcoin's positive versus negative comments. This
Speaker 1: is another way of looking at, you know, the crowd's
Speaker 1: mood overall, and when it starts going towards speculative assets,
Speaker 1: it's it's often a caution flag for crypto in general.
Speaker 1: And I'm even curious, like looking the past just the day. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so it's calmed down a lot. You can see right here.
Speaker 1: This spike here in pink happened maybe twelve hours before
Speaker 1: the official top for Bitcoin, and it was the highest
Speaker 1: level of discussion toward meme coins since late May, and
Speaker 1: late May was also a time when we were getting
Speaker 1: very close to a top, not quite as perfect as
Speaker 1: this one, but regardless, I think this is a pretty
Speaker 1: solid metric. When you just see meme coins rise in discussion,
Speaker 1: it's never a bad idea to take a little profit
Speaker 1: to stay safe.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Brian, great stuff, always insightful. Thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining me.
Speaker 1: It's been a pleasure, Tony. Always great catching up and
Speaker 1: we'll do it again in a couple of weeks. The
Speaker 1: two past, the two pak