WEBVTT 1 00:00:09.119 --> 00:00:14.119 Welcome to the God's Eye View Podcast. I am your host, Trevor. 2 00:00:15.320 --> 00:00:18.679 Kind of a gimmicky episode today. I'm not gonna lie 3 00:00:18.719 --> 00:00:21.359 to you. It's not the deep stuff we normally do. 4 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:25.839 It's just a kind of casual We'll be talking about 5 00:00:25.839 --> 00:00:29.839 the Fermi paradox. There's other bigger things I should be 6 00:00:29.879 --> 00:00:33.719 getting into right now. You know, there's this new anti 7 00:00:33.840 --> 00:00:38.280 matter discovery. There's all these new physics things that are interesting. 8 00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:41.039 But I've just been too busy. I'm not I don't 9 00:00:41.079 --> 00:00:45.640 know enough about them. So I'm outsourcing my work to 10 00:00:45.840 --> 00:00:49.039 some short explainer clips on YouTube and then we'll kind 11 00:00:49.039 --> 00:00:53.719 of discuss them. I think we'll still be really interesting, 12 00:00:53.799 --> 00:00:58.240 maybe more interesting, you know, maybe this is better. We'll see. 13 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:01.920 So just been going and hard, you know, at work, 14 00:01:01.960 --> 00:01:06.159 which is good. I go like, I oscillate. I'll be 15 00:01:06.200 --> 00:01:08.040 trying to coast for a little bit at work, and 16 00:01:08.040 --> 00:01:11.280 then I'll get manic. I'll be working like fourteen hours 17 00:01:11.280 --> 00:01:14.959 a day. I'll be like two am. I'll be staring 18 00:01:14.959 --> 00:01:16.799 at my laptop screen and I'm like, oh my god, 19 00:01:16.879 --> 00:01:22.040 I have to go to bed, and then I stop. Anyway, 20 00:01:22.280 --> 00:01:24.439 I wish I could share the idea you're not supposed 21 00:01:24.439 --> 00:01:29.439 to share like active proposals, it's technically supposed to be confidential, 22 00:01:29.480 --> 00:01:32.840 but it is sort of related to these ideas I 23 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:35.840 think I've shared in the past about you know that 24 00:01:35.920 --> 00:01:41.799 some blood pressure medications might have these other secondary effects 25 00:01:42.480 --> 00:01:45.680 that might be good or bad, that are completely unrelated 26 00:01:46.040 --> 00:01:50.719 to their effects on lowering blood pressure. And so just 27 00:01:50.799 --> 00:01:53.799 kind of exploring that, and I came up away to 28 00:01:54.040 --> 00:01:59.719 with a way to address a really key limitation that 29 00:02:00.120 --> 00:02:03.040 is a problem. And you know something every reviewer brings up, 30 00:02:03.120 --> 00:02:08.560 something every grand and paper reviewer brings up so very 31 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:12.159 excited about that. It's genius. I wish I could say more. 32 00:02:12.360 --> 00:02:16.120 Just just trust me that your boy came up with 33 00:02:16.159 --> 00:02:19.800 a really great idea today. So of course it ruins 34 00:02:19.800 --> 00:02:21.400 my weekend because now it's all I'm going to be 35 00:02:21.400 --> 00:02:29.719 thinking about. So anyway, today with the good old Fermi paradox. 36 00:02:29.800 --> 00:02:32.639 You guys know what the Fermi paradox is? Oh you don't, Well, 37 00:02:32.639 --> 00:02:33.680 here's a quick overview. 38 00:02:33.919 --> 00:02:37.199 Are we the only living things in the entire universe? 39 00:02:37.719 --> 00:02:41.919 The observable universe is about ninety billion light years in diameter. 40 00:02:42.439 --> 00:02:45.800 There are at least one hundred billion galaxies, each with 41 00:02:46.000 --> 00:02:50.319 one hundred to one thousand billion stars. Recently, we've learned 42 00:02:50.360 --> 00:02:54.000 that planets are very common too, and there are probably 43 00:02:54.039 --> 00:02:58.000 trillions and trillions of habitable planets in the universe, which 44 00:02:58.080 --> 00:03:00.800 means there should be lots of opportunity for life to 45 00:03:00.879 --> 00:03:04.639 develop and exist. Right, But where is it? Shouldn't the 46 00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:08.360 universe be teeming with spaceships. Let's take a step back. 47 00:03:15.280 --> 00:03:19.240 Even if there are alien civilizations in other galaxies, there's 48 00:03:19.319 --> 00:03:23.000 no way we'll ever know about them. Basically, everything outside 49 00:03:23.080 --> 00:03:26.520 of our direct galactic neighborhood, the so called local group, 50 00:03:26.840 --> 00:03:29.639 is pretty much out of our reach forever because of 51 00:03:29.680 --> 00:03:32.919 the expansion of the universe. Even if we had really 52 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:36.520 fast spaceships, it would literally take billions of years to 53 00:03:36.560 --> 00:03:41.360 reach these places, traveling through the emptiest areas in the universe. 54 00:03:41.919 --> 00:03:45.120 So let's focus on the Milky Way. The Milky Way 55 00:03:45.240 --> 00:03:48.000 is our home galaxy. It consists of up to four 56 00:03:48.080 --> 00:03:49.879 hundred billion stars. 57 00:03:49.879 --> 00:03:54.919 That just a quick interruption. It really is impossible to 58 00:03:55.000 --> 00:03:59.680 fathom the scale of this thing we're in. This is 59 00:03:59.719 --> 00:04:02.520 one of the things people like about simulation theories. It 60 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:05.840 sort of can account for that, you know, because we're 61 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.759 in our everyday life, we're not used. We're not used 62 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:11.039 to this type of scale, so it's hard for us 63 00:04:11.039 --> 00:04:17.279 to fathom. But we are used to the ability to 64 00:04:17.439 --> 00:04:23.120 scale extremely dramatically. Not this dramatically, but extremely dramatically in 65 00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:28.560 virtual environments. You know, you can make an actually huge 66 00:04:28.600 --> 00:04:32.480 world virtually, And there's that one video game where you 67 00:04:32.519 --> 00:04:34.560 can literally like go from planets plan I forget what 68 00:04:34.560 --> 00:04:37.920 it was called, but I mean, really, theoretically, there really 69 00:04:37.959 --> 00:04:40.439 is no limit. Well that's not true. There is a 70 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:46.120 limit in terms of what I guess it probably it 71 00:04:46.199 --> 00:04:49.439 might depend there might not be a limit actually, because 72 00:04:49.480 --> 00:04:53.839 you know you can you can write the I don't 73 00:04:53.879 --> 00:04:56.000 know anything about computer science, but you could write the 74 00:04:56.040 --> 00:04:59.079 code in a way that well, and this is probably 75 00:04:59.079 --> 00:05:01.519 how I would assume all video games work. It's why 76 00:05:01.560 --> 00:05:03.600 we use them as an analogy. Is that you're kind 77 00:05:03.600 --> 00:05:08.199 of rendering the perceptual sphere of your character. So no 78 00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:12.879 matter how big the world is, you only ever have 79 00:05:13.040 --> 00:05:17.519 to account for the perceptual sphere of the character. And 80 00:05:17.560 --> 00:05:21.199 so assuming that you know there's vast expanses of empty space, 81 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:28.079 that's very information sparse. But yet, yeah, I guess there 82 00:05:28.079 --> 00:05:31.879 would be some limit to how many descriptions of planets 83 00:05:32.240 --> 00:05:35.240 you could store in a hard drive or something. But 84 00:05:36.160 --> 00:05:39.680 I mean scale is very easy to explain in an 85 00:05:39.759 --> 00:05:44.120 information system in a real you know, in a world 86 00:05:44.160 --> 00:05:49.720 where this is real stuff. You know, if these rocks 87 00:05:49.720 --> 00:05:52.639 floating in space are actually rocks made up of some 88 00:05:52.800 --> 00:05:58.240 smallest divisible unit, which in and of itself to me 89 00:05:58.439 --> 00:06:02.360 just sounds kind of unlikely. But let's just say that's 90 00:06:02.399 --> 00:06:06.439 the case. It's sort of. It is hard. This isn't 91 00:06:06.480 --> 00:06:09.040 a great argument or anything, but it is hard to 92 00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:15.360 imagine this much of that stuff. Where did it come from? 93 00:06:15.639 --> 00:06:19.279 You know, because a godless universe, we kind of have 94 00:06:19.360 --> 00:06:21.319 to assume it came from nowhere, or it came from 95 00:06:21.399 --> 00:06:25.000 some random sequence of events. And it's like, okay, but 96 00:06:25.800 --> 00:06:30.560 what was the first event? Right? And why was it 97 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:33.879 the first? And oh it's eternal. It's like, okay, that 98 00:06:33.920 --> 00:06:36.839 doesn't really solve the problem, like where did all this 99 00:06:36.879 --> 00:06:38.439 stuff come from? Why is it here? It doesn't need 100 00:06:38.480 --> 00:06:45.519 to be We can all imagine nothingness, so yeah, it's it. 101 00:06:45.839 --> 00:06:49.519 I find the mystery fascinating. What I'm getting increasingly frustrated 102 00:06:49.560 --> 00:06:55.720 with is the argumentation around this topic, because it's like, 103 00:06:55.759 --> 00:06:58.800 can't we just all agree that this mystery is staggering, 104 00:06:59.279 --> 00:07:04.199 Like it is just you cannot It's shocking how staggering 105 00:07:04.199 --> 00:07:06.399 the mystery is in this group of people who insist 106 00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:10.800 that it's not mysterious. Where does that come from? Like 107 00:07:10.879 --> 00:07:13.279 how I mean, no offense, I know, I just talked 108 00:07:13.279 --> 00:07:16.160 about I don't like arguing, but it's like gross, What 109 00:07:16.279 --> 00:07:20.720 a gross instinct? What a gross instinct to just like 110 00:07:20.800 --> 00:07:22.560 look out at the universe and be like, oh right, 111 00:07:22.600 --> 00:07:26.439 but you know it's mostly hydrogen and helium and basically 112 00:07:26.439 --> 00:07:28.560 what happened? You know what I mean. It's just like okay, yeah, 113 00:07:28.600 --> 00:07:33.720 that's that is interesting, But you know, where did it 114 00:07:33.759 --> 00:07:36.439 all come from? Why is any of it here? 115 00:07:36.519 --> 00:07:36.720 You know? 116 00:07:38.199 --> 00:07:41.920 Is time infinite? Is it linear? Like these deep questions 117 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:44.319 to me are just like boggle the mind. It's amazing 118 00:07:45.920 --> 00:07:48.959 in the insistence of like, oh yeah, well, we'll figure 119 00:07:48.959 --> 00:07:52.839 it out someday. It's like, I don't know, I think 120 00:07:52.879 --> 00:07:57.000 we're really good at figuring out the description and the 121 00:07:57.079 --> 00:07:59.399 rule set of the world we live in, but we're 122 00:07:59.439 --> 00:08:02.079 hopeless figuring out where it came from. Like those are 123 00:08:02.079 --> 00:08:05.639 two entirely different questions. So anyway back to the Fermi Parader. 124 00:08:05.439 --> 00:08:08.199 That's a lot of stars, counting one per second, it 125 00:08:08.199 --> 00:08:10.920 would take you one hundred lifetimes to count them all. 126 00:08:11.360 --> 00:08:14.319 There are about twenty billion sun like stars in the 127 00:08:14.360 --> 00:08:17.279 Milky Way, and estimates suggest that a fifth of them 128 00:08:17.360 --> 00:08:19.959 have an Earth sized planet in its habitable zone, the 129 00:08:20.000 --> 00:08:23.480 area with conditions that enable life to exist. If only 130 00:08:23.639 --> 00:08:26.680 zero point one percent of those planets harbored life, there 131 00:08:26.680 --> 00:08:29.920 would be one million planets with life in the Milky Way. 132 00:08:30.439 --> 00:08:33.919 But wait, there's more. The Milky Way is about thirteen 133 00:08:33.960 --> 00:08:36.639 billion years old. In the beginning, it would not have 134 00:08:36.679 --> 00:08:39.679 been a good place for life because things exploded a lot. 135 00:08:39.960 --> 00:08:43.120 But after one to two billion years, the first habitable 136 00:08:43.159 --> 00:08:46.240 planets were born. Earth is only four billion years old, 137 00:08:46.399 --> 00:08:49.320 so there have probably been trillions of chances for life 138 00:08:49.320 --> 00:08:52.120 to develop on other planets in the past. If only 139 00:08:52.159 --> 00:08:54.440 a single one of them had developed into a space 140 00:08:54.480 --> 00:08:58.080 traveling super civilization, we would have noticed by now what 141 00:08:58.120 --> 00:09:02.279 would such a civilization look like? There are three categories, 142 00:09:02.840 --> 00:09:04.399 A type one civilizing. 143 00:09:04.679 --> 00:09:07.799 Okay, I think you get the idea, So I mean, 144 00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:11.279 if you're it's weird because we got a lot of 145 00:09:11.279 --> 00:09:15.360 different Like the ven diagram of potential explanations is really 146 00:09:16.159 --> 00:09:21.080 bizarrely overlapping, you know, because people who would normally really 147 00:09:21.120 --> 00:09:23.799 strongly disagree with each other, like people who believe in 148 00:09:23.840 --> 00:09:27.360 aliens and more reduction of scientists, like, they find a 149 00:09:27.360 --> 00:09:31.960 lot of common ground in certain ways. But I mean, 150 00:09:32.000 --> 00:09:39.399 basically it seems like there's a couple possibilities. One is 151 00:09:39.399 --> 00:09:42.480 that it is just so much scientists like to do this. 152 00:09:42.519 --> 00:09:45.720 They like to do this. It's almost like poetic, you know, 153 00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:49.320 because they're always struggling to find spirituality and what they 154 00:09:49.399 --> 00:09:53.639 do in their worldview because nihilism sucks, and so they 155 00:09:53.679 --> 00:09:57.039 will have sort of like a fern Gully Avatar kind 156 00:09:57.080 --> 00:10:01.200 of answer, is that a good analogy are a good anyway? 157 00:10:01.240 --> 00:10:04.440 They have this answer where it's like, well, life is 158 00:10:04.639 --> 00:10:09.519 just so much more special than we ever thought, and 159 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:13.200 the chances of life arising and it's really just way 160 00:10:13.039 --> 00:10:19.039 the probability is just so much more unlikely than we 161 00:10:19.120 --> 00:10:22.399 ever could have even imagined. You know. Yeah, even if 162 00:10:22.440 --> 00:10:28.639 there are this staggering number of habitable planets in our galaxy, 163 00:10:29.159 --> 00:10:31.440 and even if many of them are much older than 164 00:10:31.440 --> 00:10:36.519 our own, life is just so special that we should 165 00:10:36.559 --> 00:10:40.120 just really feel grateful to be here. And I agree 166 00:10:40.120 --> 00:10:43.799 that is true. It's not really a scientific answer, you know, 167 00:10:44.320 --> 00:10:46.279 I mean it is, but it's couched in like all 168 00:10:46.320 --> 00:10:50.120 sorts of so I don't know. It's like spiritualism or 169 00:10:50.240 --> 00:10:52.519 not spiritualism. I don't know, but you get the idea 170 00:10:53.240 --> 00:10:57.519 it is true. I mean, if life is truly that unique, 171 00:10:57.559 --> 00:11:02.240 I mean, that is fascinating. Now I don't really like 172 00:11:02.360 --> 00:11:07.559 my arguments. My beliefs are sort of unrelated to the 173 00:11:07.600 --> 00:11:12.120 existence of life in the galaxy. I think if a 174 00:11:12.960 --> 00:11:17.559 totally reasonable that a creator would create a system that 175 00:11:17.600 --> 00:11:24.720 could lead to the emergence of life, and it could 176 00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:27.159 be that life emerges all over the place, it could 177 00:11:27.200 --> 00:11:30.039 be that life emerges only in one place, like this 178 00:11:30.320 --> 00:11:35.440 is not really none neither outcome would really affect my worldview. However, 179 00:11:35.879 --> 00:11:39.799 now that I say that if we really were and 180 00:11:39.799 --> 00:11:41.720 we don't know that we are, of course, but if 181 00:11:41.720 --> 00:11:47.159 we really were the only planet with life out of 182 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:51.320 the trillions of habitable planets, like, how can you not 183 00:11:51.519 --> 00:11:57.120 view that as evidence of Like I can't be care 184 00:11:57.159 --> 00:12:00.480 about how I phrase it, Like the evidence of would say, 185 00:12:00.519 --> 00:12:06.360 divine intervention in our existence, you know, like all the 186 00:12:06.440 --> 00:12:09.720 rule set is established in a way that you know, 187 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:14.720 once life gets going, it does this certain thing. It's 188 00:12:14.720 --> 00:12:22.639 selective pressure exists. Genetic mutations can happen and could be 189 00:12:22.679 --> 00:12:26.639 selected for if they're beneficial, Like give give evolution all everything, 190 00:12:26.759 --> 00:12:30.320 you know, give the full thing. But still, I mean, 191 00:12:30.320 --> 00:12:32.360 we don't know where life comes from. We don't understand 192 00:12:32.399 --> 00:12:35.399 a biogenesis. We don't understand just like we don't understand 193 00:12:35.440 --> 00:12:37.600 the first domino and the formation of the universe. We 194 00:12:37.639 --> 00:12:40.000 don't understand the first domino and the creation of life. 195 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:44.679 Could it be that there was some sort of intervention, 196 00:12:45.440 --> 00:12:47.600 you know, and there's there's all sorts of miracles in 197 00:12:47.679 --> 00:12:52.919 the development of humanity. I mean, the merging of They 198 00:12:52.960 --> 00:12:55.240 wouldn't have been mitochondria at the time, they would have 199 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:59.840 been a purple hylem bacterium. But you know, our anc 200 00:13:00.080 --> 00:13:03.679 into animal cell ancestors. If this is how it went down, 201 00:13:03.799 --> 00:13:08.480 we don't know. You know, at some point incorporated bacteria 202 00:13:10.399 --> 00:13:14.039 inside of the cell and they formed a symbiotic relationship. 203 00:13:15.240 --> 00:13:17.879 This is we're not pretty confident this is what mitochondria 204 00:13:17.960 --> 00:13:25.960 are is or ancient ancient structures or they're the descendants 205 00:13:25.960 --> 00:13:29.399 of ancient structures, And there is sort of this symbiosis 206 00:13:29.639 --> 00:13:34.440 between our cells and the mitochondria, which are almost like 207 00:13:34.679 --> 00:13:36.879 I mean, you could call them almost like parasites, except 208 00:13:37.799 --> 00:13:40.320 they're much more beneficial than they are harmful, you know, 209 00:13:40.799 --> 00:13:49.120 so it's a symbiosis. So that is completely unique. You know, 210 00:13:49.120 --> 00:13:53.360 we've never really seen anything like that, and so that 211 00:13:53.480 --> 00:13:56.679 almost seems like, you know, could there have been interventions 212 00:13:56.759 --> 00:14:01.200 at various time points, you know, just the creation of 213 00:14:01.919 --> 00:14:07.399 information bearing molecules like DNA that i've been introduced. Now, 214 00:14:07.399 --> 00:14:09.360 when you say stuff like that, I think the instinct 215 00:14:09.399 --> 00:14:12.080 for people is to think like some other alien race 216 00:14:12.919 --> 00:14:16.679 introduced you know, DNA, and who knows, I mean, who knows. 217 00:14:16.679 --> 00:14:20.440 But at the very least you got to say, hey, 218 00:14:21.000 --> 00:14:25.720 rationalist reduction is like, you got to stop being so confident. 219 00:14:26.039 --> 00:14:30.679 It's really becoming a problem. And I feel like they 220 00:14:30.720 --> 00:14:32.879 kind of retreated for a while, but I feel like 221 00:14:32.919 --> 00:14:35.320 now they're back, you know, I've seen a lot more 222 00:14:35.360 --> 00:14:40.240 confidence with the rational reductionist types. Anyway, So a paper 223 00:14:40.279 --> 00:14:43.720 came out recently. It's kind of a weird paper, but 224 00:14:44.879 --> 00:14:47.679 hesitate to even call it a scientific paper. It's more 225 00:14:47.720 --> 00:14:54.200 like an opinion. But Sabine Hastenfelder, our friend with the 226 00:14:54.279 --> 00:14:57.080 thick accent, reviewed it. So let's listen. 227 00:14:57.279 --> 00:15:02.200 The Fummi paradox just got so much worse. One of 228 00:15:02.240 --> 00:15:06.000 the most plausible explanations for why we've not yet heard 229 00:15:06.039 --> 00:15:10.759 of other intelligent species has been that technological civilizations eventually 230 00:15:10.799 --> 00:15:15.559 develop artificially intelligent systems, and it's not intelligent to populate 231 00:15:15.639 --> 00:15:19.559 the galaxy, they lose interest basically, But in a new paper, 232 00:15:19.679 --> 00:15:23.279 physicists now our use quite convincingly. I think that this 233 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:27.559 is wrong. This isn't just interesting because of the Fermi products, 234 00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:31.559 but because it generally tells us how our ratitude to 235 00:15:31.679 --> 00:15:35.320 space trouble has been changing. The Fermi proaducts is the 236 00:15:35.440 --> 00:15:39.000 question of why we haven't yet found aliens. So maky 237 00:15:39.039 --> 00:15:42.279 Way has hundreds of billions of stars. We now know 238 00:15:42.600 --> 00:15:45.559 that planets are common, and that many planets are quite 239 00:15:45.559 --> 00:15:49.200 plausibly in the habitable zones of their stars. Indeed, many 240 00:15:49.240 --> 00:15:52.840 of those planets should have formed billions of years before Earth. 241 00:15:53.039 --> 00:15:56.720 So why haven't we heard of any other intelligent species? 242 00:15:56.840 --> 00:16:00.320 Other civilizations should have had plenty of time to spread 243 00:16:00.440 --> 00:16:04.600 through the galaxy, build visible technology, or at least leave traces, 244 00:16:04.799 --> 00:16:08.480 but we haven't heard or seen anything from anyone. There 245 00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:11.840 have been lots of different explanations, for example, that the 246 00:16:12.039 --> 00:16:16.360 emergence of life is just incredibly unlikely, all that habitable 247 00:16:16.399 --> 00:16:19.639 planets are much rarer than we think. But one of 248 00:16:19.720 --> 00:16:24.080 the explanations that's attracted the most attention is that advanced 249 00:16:24.080 --> 00:16:28.559 civilizations simply lose interest in space travel because it's, on 250 00:16:28.600 --> 00:16:33.159 a basic level dumb. Space travel is expensive and inefficient 251 00:16:33.360 --> 00:16:37.440 and just exactly what is the purpose anyway? Humans currently 252 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:40.919 attempt to travel in space for irrational reasons. So the 253 00:16:41.080 --> 00:16:44.679 argument goes because of national pride, because they believe that 254 00:16:44.799 --> 00:16:47.759 more humans are better than fewer humans, or because they 255 00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:52.360 don't fully realize just how incredibly large the distances are 256 00:16:52.440 --> 00:16:55.559 between solar systems and how long it take us to 257 00:16:55.720 --> 00:16:56.519 travel there. 258 00:16:58.440 --> 00:17:02.360 Or because we like GPS navigation. This kind of this 259 00:17:02.480 --> 00:17:05.880 is like such a dumb argument. Now Sabine is just 260 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:08.680 laying out a counter argument. This is not her position, 261 00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:11.799 but it's got to be, you know. Speculating about the 262 00:17:11.839 --> 00:17:14.559 Fermi paradox in this way to me is like so 263 00:17:14.720 --> 00:17:19.960 dumb because it's so culturally colored, you know, like it 264 00:17:20.000 --> 00:17:23.519 has so much to do with your cultural lens. There 265 00:17:23.559 --> 00:17:28.519 is an unfathomable number of reasons why a civilization might 266 00:17:28.559 --> 00:17:31.559 want to be in space right that we can't even comprehend. 267 00:17:31.759 --> 00:17:35.519 I mean, technologies emerge out of nowhere and we never 268 00:17:35.599 --> 00:17:37.960 even thought about it before, and now suddenly they're like 269 00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:42.200 the most important thing. Like, for example, she mentioned or 270 00:17:42.240 --> 00:17:43.920 maybe she's about to mention. I don't know, this is 271 00:17:43.960 --> 00:17:45.880 the second time I'm watching this, but she either just 272 00:17:45.960 --> 00:17:48.400 mentioned or was about to mention that once you figure 273 00:17:48.400 --> 00:17:51.799 out AI, there's no reason to go to space. AI 274 00:17:51.920 --> 00:17:55.880 is so useful. And it's like, lady or whoever saying this, 275 00:17:56.960 --> 00:17:59.039 we didn't even know about AI a couple like a 276 00:17:59.039 --> 00:18:02.799 few years ago. So like, could it be that maybe 277 00:18:02.839 --> 00:18:06.079 you're just saying this because it's a culturally relevant topic 278 00:18:06.200 --> 00:18:09.519 to you right now? Like could there not be some 279 00:18:09.680 --> 00:18:16.640 other future culturally relevant developments in space, you know, exploration, 280 00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:19.759 There are planets in our Solar system that we can 281 00:18:19.799 --> 00:18:21.000 go to, for example. 282 00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:21.240 You know. 283 00:18:21.400 --> 00:18:24.519 So I just think this is so dumb, and it 284 00:18:24.599 --> 00:18:26.720 reminds me I want to talk to you guys about something. 285 00:18:27.519 --> 00:18:32.119 At the end. It's like it's like financial advice. No, sorry, 286 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:39.319 it is not. It is unequivocably not financial advice, but 287 00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:42.079 it is related to finances, So we'll talk about that letter. 288 00:18:42.240 --> 00:18:46.759 Once the civilization develops artificial intelligence, they grow out of 289 00:18:46.799 --> 00:18:49.920 the silly ideas, so the argument goes, and instead they 290 00:18:50.000 --> 00:18:53.680 make their life cozy on their home planet, space traveling 291 00:18:53.759 --> 00:18:58.160 in virtual reality. Populating the galaxy requires too many resources 292 00:18:58.200 --> 00:19:02.359 with little resultant. This ultimately not sustainable. A related argument 293 00:19:02.519 --> 00:19:06.200 has it that civilizations just take it slowly for some 294 00:19:06.359 --> 00:19:11.720 billion billion years because computation becomes thermodynamically easier than quite 295 00:19:11.759 --> 00:19:14.680 the argument, seeing that I can't plan a had enough 296 00:19:14.720 --> 00:19:18.079 to reliably water the plants in any case, I've always 297 00:19:18.200 --> 00:19:22.119 found this an interesting argument because it basically pitches Elon 298 00:19:22.279 --> 00:19:26.079 Musque against himself. It leads you to expect that at 299 00:19:26.079 --> 00:19:31.000 some point groc will begin to argue against SpaceX. Okay, 300 00:19:31.119 --> 00:19:34.680 but now here comes the new paper. The author argues 301 00:19:34.799 --> 00:19:38.599 that this earlier argument is fundamentally flawed. He says that 302 00:19:38.759 --> 00:19:43.759 once the civilization has artificial intelligence, robots and space factories, 303 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:48.200 space exploration doesn't require big and fast machines. It can 304 00:19:48.240 --> 00:19:51.799 be done with plenty of small, cheap spacecraft, and with 305 00:19:52.039 --> 00:19:56.400 machines that need neither food, nor air nor motivational posters. 306 00:19:56.480 --> 00:20:00.000 And that just makes the fermi products so much worse 307 00:19:59.759 --> 00:20:02.039 beca because now you have to ask not just well, 308 00:20:02.079 --> 00:20:06.000 why haven't we received any electromagnetic signal from the aliens? 309 00:20:06.279 --> 00:20:10.640 But why have we not found any of their space probes? 310 00:20:11.079 --> 00:20:14.839 Why are they not here? The author gives multiple reasons 311 00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:19.200 for why space exploration is rational, most importantly the preservation 312 00:20:19.400 --> 00:20:23.519 of the species and possibly other species, knowledge, preservation, and 313 00:20:23.640 --> 00:20:27.440 scientific observation. If the cost of small probes is small 314 00:20:27.559 --> 00:20:31.599 compared with the value of these factors, then it makes sense. 315 00:20:32.000 --> 00:20:35.759 The author, I think we'll enterrate there. This is obviously true. Now, 316 00:20:36.200 --> 00:20:39.559 this is not a scientific conclusion. This is just someone 317 00:20:39.599 --> 00:20:44.880 sharing their opinion, you know. But the opinion is incredibly logical, right, 318 00:20:44.920 --> 00:20:47.000 Like the idea that like, oh, people will just lose 319 00:20:47.039 --> 00:20:53.440 interest in space, It's like, well, more likely as technology improves, 320 00:20:53.960 --> 00:20:56.480 you'd become more interested in space because the cost to 321 00:20:56.599 --> 00:21:00.319 access it would decrease, both the financial cost and the 322 00:21:00.400 --> 00:21:02.519 costs to life if you don't have to send to humans. 323 00:21:03.200 --> 00:21:05.039 It reminds me of this idea of van is a 324 00:21:05.160 --> 00:21:10.799 von nou Van what me? Uh? Is it von Noyman probes? 325 00:21:10.839 --> 00:21:12.160 I don't know if I'm saying that, right, It's just 326 00:21:12.200 --> 00:21:17.559 this idea that you know, with sufficient technology. You could 327 00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:21.400 build a probe that you launch and it's AI or whatever, 328 00:21:22.279 --> 00:21:28.559 and uh, it mines the needed materials from asteroids and 329 00:21:28.640 --> 00:21:32.400 duplicates itself with three D printers or whatever. Right, like 330 00:21:32.519 --> 00:21:38.039 just infinite timescale technology constraints are pretty pretty small, right, 331 00:21:39.160 --> 00:21:43.279 and so it'd be like this like self replicating explorer 332 00:21:43.799 --> 00:21:49.000 and there'll just be buillian, I mean, exponential growth in 333 00:21:49.160 --> 00:21:54.559 these probes and they'd fill the galaxy, you know, looking 334 00:21:54.599 --> 00:21:58.039 for life, and we'd run into one of them. And 335 00:21:58.119 --> 00:22:00.559 so yeah, this of course makes a ton sense. Now 336 00:22:00.759 --> 00:22:04.160 she goes on to make it the point that we 337 00:22:04.880 --> 00:22:07.480 don't have any We would never know if that were 338 00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:09.680 the case, because I think people kind of have this 339 00:22:09.759 --> 00:22:14.039 misconception that we're like really looking out into the space 340 00:22:14.160 --> 00:22:16.680 and there's radars set up that track everything. 341 00:22:16.720 --> 00:22:17.720 This is not true at all. 342 00:22:18.559 --> 00:22:22.519 There are there's ACCID, there's object tracking, but you would 343 00:22:22.599 --> 00:22:26.799 there really would be no way to distinguish between you know, 344 00:22:26.839 --> 00:22:29.839 an asteroid and like a passive prob. Now, if something's 345 00:22:29.880 --> 00:22:32.839 zipping around out there, maybe and if it's big yeah 346 00:22:33.000 --> 00:22:39.839 and close, then yes perhaps. But anyway, so it doesn't 347 00:22:39.920 --> 00:22:43.079 sound like it's related to the normal topics are show covers. 348 00:22:43.079 --> 00:22:48.359 But it kind of is because the Fermi paradox is 349 00:22:48.480 --> 00:22:51.319 a kind of a problem. You know, if life can 350 00:22:51.359 --> 00:22:56.400 emerge through these mechanisms that we propose, that rational reductionists propose, 351 00:22:57.440 --> 00:23:02.279 and there are so many habitable planets and so much 352 00:23:02.319 --> 00:23:06.079 time has transpired, surely there should be life on these planets. 353 00:23:07.039 --> 00:23:08.640 And maybe there is. I mean, this is a big 354 00:23:08.680 --> 00:23:13.279 focus of an ass right now, trying to bring rocks 355 00:23:13.359 --> 00:23:17.359 back from Mars. I really like, and this was what 356 00:23:17.400 --> 00:23:19.960 I wanted to bring up at the end here. I 357 00:23:20.039 --> 00:23:24.480 really like this company called rocket Lab and they're self 358 00:23:24.559 --> 00:23:27.799 funding a mission to Venus to scoop up some atmosphere 359 00:23:28.799 --> 00:23:30.880 because there was some paper that came out a while 360 00:23:30.920 --> 00:23:37.240 ago that claims through spectral analysis that they're finding particular 361 00:23:37.400 --> 00:23:42.200 compounds in the atmosphere of Venus. How do you say 362 00:23:42.200 --> 00:23:46.480 that Venusian atmosphere, I don't know the atmosphere of Venus 363 00:23:47.039 --> 00:23:52.359 that is pretty strong evidence of like microbial life. So 364 00:23:52.400 --> 00:23:55.119 they're trying to go do that. And so that is 365 00:23:55.160 --> 00:23:59.720 actually the financial thing I wanted to bring up. I know, 366 00:24:01.400 --> 00:24:07.920 honest to goodness, more about commercial space flight than probably 367 00:24:08.000 --> 00:24:11.200 any other thing I talked about on this show, and 368 00:24:11.319 --> 00:24:14.440 I've never brought it up because it's like a very 369 00:24:14.519 --> 00:24:20.079 niche interest. But you know, over time, I feel like 370 00:24:20.160 --> 00:24:22.599 I'm learning to know you all. You guys have been 371 00:24:22.640 --> 00:24:24.960 sending me emails and stuff. It's so cool. So I 372 00:24:25.000 --> 00:24:28.440 do feel like I have to share this other passionate 373 00:24:28.519 --> 00:24:33.200 interest of mine. So I don't know, I don't know 374 00:24:33.240 --> 00:24:36.720 if it's my age or what. But you know, you had, 375 00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:38.799 like when I was a kid, you had the space 376 00:24:38.839 --> 00:24:41.160 shuttles all very exciting. It was a part of like 377 00:24:41.920 --> 00:24:45.960 scientific triumphalism, you know, is, hey, we're doing the human 378 00:24:46.000 --> 00:24:49.400 genome project, We've got the space shuttles, We've got like 379 00:24:49.559 --> 00:24:56.519 procuring everything, we're colonizing the solar system. Like, clearly the 380 00:24:56.559 --> 00:25:00.519 worldview that gave rise to this is a worldview that 381 00:25:00.599 --> 00:25:03.440 is worth taking seriously. And so when it sort of 382 00:25:04.319 --> 00:25:08.400 began to oppose the religious worldview, you know, you feel like, well, 383 00:25:08.480 --> 00:25:11.079 you've got to go with the scientific worldview. I mean, 384 00:25:11.920 --> 00:25:15.039 look at it. You know, who doesn't want antibiotics, you know, 385 00:25:15.079 --> 00:25:18.960 And so of course that's a total incorrect way of 386 00:25:19.640 --> 00:25:21.799 Now we know, I think as a society that this 387 00:25:21.920 --> 00:25:25.000 is a strange way to view the issue. But at 388 00:25:25.039 --> 00:25:28.279 the time it seemed compelling, but then we just stopped 389 00:25:28.279 --> 00:25:31.319 being good at that. We just stopped doing it for 390 00:25:31.440 --> 00:25:34.359 you know, whatever reason. So I guess, you know, some 391 00:25:34.440 --> 00:25:36.839 credit to Elon not you know, not to get political. 392 00:25:37.359 --> 00:25:40.599 Uh he started a you know, he sold PayPal, started 393 00:25:40.599 --> 00:25:43.880 a company that that's pretty impressive. You know, they've done 394 00:25:43.880 --> 00:25:50.240 some pretty cool stuff, really cool stuff. Anyway, they had 395 00:25:50.359 --> 00:25:55.400 there's an there's another competitor that they have that is 396 00:25:55.519 --> 00:25:58.960 so cool. So I encourage you, if you're into this stuff, 397 00:25:58.960 --> 00:26:02.440 to look into it. People assume, you know, SpaceX is 398 00:26:02.519 --> 00:26:06.960 only competitors Blue Origin, and the only reason Blue Origin 399 00:26:07.000 --> 00:26:11.039 gets any attention is because it's Jeff Bezos's company. They 400 00:26:11.160 --> 00:26:13.359 basically what they do is they just steal money from 401 00:26:13.359 --> 00:26:15.680