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Speaker 1: Welcome to Wage you Talk today, the gold standard of

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sports betting shows where we talked to talk and me

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indeed walk the walk. It's Monday, big lineup. Yanni the

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Greek kicks things off with the Steam Report. Crack Man's

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gonna drop by. We're gonna do Monday Night football prop

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for Bills and the Falcons, along with some MLB insights

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with Steve Merrill.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna break down Mariners, Blue Jays.

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Speaker 1: We're all just gonna take a look at this NLCS

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game one as along with a Bears and Commanders Monday

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Night football preview. We got double the baseball, we got

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double the football. Plenty of sharp info to start your

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week off right. And Dan, I just gotta say, I

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use a football school, baby, I use a football school

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for the first time in my life.

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Speaker 2: How about that?

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Speaker 1: All right, let's bring in Yanni the Greek, and you

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guys please hit the like button while we're getting started.

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Speaker 2: Yanni, you were just celebrating earlier.

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Speaker 1: Well, you got a nice future that that that's on

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the right track.

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Speaker 3: Have four on Seattle to win the AL at plus

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ten to one, so there's forty units pending. And then

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I have four percent on them at twenty five to

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one to win the World Series. So alably one hundred

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and forty units sitting there on turn and I said,

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we got to make money off this bet.

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Speaker 4: So the decision was either you.

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Speaker 3: Take Toronto to you know, hedge Toronto to this series

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at minus one forty. I said, you know what, let's

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take it game by game and see what happens. So instead,

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yesterday I just bet Toronto game one for five unit's.

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Seattle now won game one. So now Seattle's minus two

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hundred in the adjustment series price, and I think that's

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too high, to be honest with you, Historically I think

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it's it's it should be about minus one sixty right now,

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it's a little bit too high at minus two hundred.

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I'm almost tempted to hedge a little with Toronto because

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when the road team wins game one, historically they win

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the series about six out of ten times, so it's

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about a sixty percent, and it's priced now at sixty

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seven break even.

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Speaker 4: Each series.

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Speaker 3: Each matchup is different, but I just think it's too high.

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Like Toronto's got the pitch in, they got the bats

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to where they shouldn't be this big of an underdog

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in this spot. I don't think for the series. I'm

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hoping Seattle gets it done again tonight. I haven't really

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broke that game down yet. I've been looking mostly at football,

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but yeah, I need them to get it done hopefully.

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Speaker 1: We had a couple of Monday night football games. Anything

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of note that you're seeing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean to get the latest going on Washington money.

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No surprise, Washington was tied in from yesterday to a

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handful of money line parlays, a handful of teasers where

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they tease them down to where they just have to

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win the game. And we're also seeing straight bets coming

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in on the Washington side. So the question is when

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are they going to six with it? Because we're seeing

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five and a halfs. It hasn't gotten there. I look

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into my Sharper shops too and it still hasn't gotten there.

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So it'll be interesting to see if they get the

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six with Washington. The overs being bet in both games

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by the recreational betters. We haven't seen the wise guys

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get involved. That's why you haven't seen a big move

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on the line like the total open that the look

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that had got bet over over at forty eight right away,

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which is a Monday night game that happens almost always

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because the bias to the betters is always towards the

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over on those primetime games.

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Speaker 4: So that's not a big move.

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Speaker 3: It's what happens after that, and we haven't seen much

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movement at all. It's like half point increments to get

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the forty nine and a half or fifty, and the

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same thing with the Chicago Washington total. We're getting over money,

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but they've gone the fifty back to forty nine and

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a half, fifty back to forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: That tells you it's not sharp money related.

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Speaker 3: It's not a group that came took a position hit

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them with a limit bet on the over, because you'd

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be seeing, you know, fifty and a half instantly. Fifty

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one's by now, So in neither of the games would

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I consider the over move that we're seeing real sharp.

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As far as the science, we have seen sharp money.

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On Atlanta. The look ahead was what three and a half.

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They put it out at four four and it went

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to four and a half. That's when you started seeing

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somebody Atlanta money. Now it's down to three and a half.

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I think that has a lot to do with number

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one home dog number two. They haven't had a Monday

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night game in Atlanta in a really, really long time,

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so I mean this is it's hard to quantify that,

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but it should be a good home field advantage. And

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of course you have Buffalo coming off an ugly loss

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to New England, so a little recency bias there that that,

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because you would think it would be one sided Buffalo

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money and that's just not the case, at least not

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yet heavier I think the Washington side and the line

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reflects that, where with the Buffalo Atlanta you got the

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sharp money that came in on Atlanta dropped the line,

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but I think you're gonna get more than enough Buffalo

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money the other way from recreational betters to get good

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balance there. So nothing really like jumping out as far

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as wise guys steaming anything except again the Atlanta at

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four and a half, and then the public's just betting

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both games over and obviously a little heavier on the

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favorite with the Commanders.

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Speaker 1: Sean was asking about any sharp action in hockey today

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and Adam was wondering some thoughts on James Franklin's firing

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on the Penn State. Iowa is this situation where players

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look to flee, maybe the line keeps moving up. You know,

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the lines are kind of based on narratives, not necessarily

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like what actually happens. Sometimes players rally, sometimes.

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Speaker 2: They give up. Your guess is as good as mine

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on that one.

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Speaker 1: If I think, if you're think, if you're trying to

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guess what the narrative is, you're kind of playing with fire.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of a coin flip there.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't guess what the player's narratives are, ONTI.

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Speaker 4: You'd rather wait and see confirmation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like the draft quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we talked about it inbe with the draft.

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Speaker 3: Why guess in lay minus two hundred when tomorrow I

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could lay four hundred and have confirmation. Yeah, I have

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to lay a bigger price, but now I'm pretty sure

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that this player's.

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Speaker 4: Going to that team. You know, I get it.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes you get a much better price getting out ahead

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of the market, But when you there's times that you

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could get confirmation. I much rather wait to answer his

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question on NHL real quickly. Colorado got steamed immediately at opener.

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Obviously you could tell that from the betting line. Tampa

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Bay was another one that I saw in multiple accounts.

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Tampa Bay kept getting bet column Columbus over New Jersey.

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Speaker 4: As a home dog.

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Speaker 3: I saw on accounts who else, sorry, just wanted Monday,

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Monday account Monday and where was oh the under under

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in Saint Louis Vancouver but at six and now it's

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five and a half. They seemed that under Vancouver Saint Louis.

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So that that's some of the hockey that got hit immediately.

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Speaker 1: Just uh, there's a lot of day games and hockey guys.

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It's Canadian Thanksgiving, so these games, these games are like

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literally starting in a half hour an hour, so make

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sure don't wait until this evening and be like, oh

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I got to bet those hockey games and the game

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has been over for a few hours, so uh, be

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careful on those. So yeah, someone even in the chat,

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you see, Panda says he likes the blue jacket. So

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there's your confirmation, Yanni, Panda in the chat, there's your

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there's your uh and Rob says the same thing about that,

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so uh, let's see. Yeah, what's your thoughts when we

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have a co fired from a you know, Penn State,

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not only that they're quarterbacks out for the year, is it.

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Speaker 2: Just unknowns you just wait and see.

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Speaker 4: Why listen, that's a team right now.

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Speaker 3: Here's here's the problem with a situation like that. Right now,

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Penn State is getting such negative feedback from you know,

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the betting market, that you're almost forced to look to

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back that team. To be honest with you, it's kind

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of like the bet the crypto market, the stock market.

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Speaker 4: You got to run into a burning building if you

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want to make money.

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Speaker 3: It's the scariest times. But when things are crashing is

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when you're going to get value. When when you're seeing

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on CNBC they're gonna you know, it's going to zero,

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Bitcoin's going to zero. That there there, it's imploding. Like

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when you start seeing that stuff, you have to have

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the courage to go.

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Speaker 4: In and it's very hard to do.

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Speaker 3: But this is when you're usually going to get a

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lot of value on a team like that. Again, you

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can wait for confirmation by seeing how they play on

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the field, but then you know everyone else saw it too,

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you know, how do you take advantage of it? So personally,

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I think again, for myself, I look to go contrarian

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in most markets, so I'm not afraid to back a

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team like that, especially again, if the narrative is so ugly,

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so bad, you're usually.

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Speaker 4: Gonna get some value.

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Speaker 3: And then you just got to hope that the team

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actually shows up, which, like you said, is the part

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you're guessing.

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Speaker 4: You can't.

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Speaker 3: You don't know how is that locker room gonna respond

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to the situation.

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Speaker 1: Also, you have the other team has absolutely no film

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to work. What do you prepare for?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, great point?

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Speaker 2: What possible film? Do you know what they're going to

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bring out? On offense?

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Speaker 1: It's going to take you a full half to try

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and figure out what they're running if they're competent, Are

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we running a million times?

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Speaker 2: Are we passing?

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Speaker 5: Do we?

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Speaker 2: Are we running a dierent like?

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Speaker 1: And then by the time you adjust a half time

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the other teams as I see too many of these

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messy situations. Sometimes I love when backup quarterbacks come in

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just because.

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Speaker 4: The absolutely player theory.

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Speaker 3: Marco Marco's handicapped. You know, it's funny. I just looked

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real quick at the rankings. I see Notre Dame as

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thirteenth in the AP fifteenth in the coach's pull. Do

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you know there's maybe two teams in all of college

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football that would be favored over Notre Dame on a

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neutral field, number one would be Ohio State, Number two

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would be Alabama, everyone else, Oregon, Georgia.

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Speaker 4: Indiana, name them.

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame would be favored over on a neutral field.

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At least that's what real power ratings reflect. Again, the

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sportsbook's job is to manage risk and the narrative out there.

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A foreign two Notre Dame team can't be as good

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as the six and O team. With that said, power

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ratings are everything. I talked about it every single week

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about the overvalued college football teams, and I'm still seeing it.

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Miami number two, You have no business being number two.

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Miami's not even a top ten power rated team.

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Speaker 5: There.

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Speaker 3: I said it, Miami's not even a top ten power

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rated team. Miami's lucky to be in the top twenty

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power rating wise, and yet they're number two because they're

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sitting at five and oh like. I would make Indiana

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favor over Miami. I would make Texas favored over Miami.

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I would make Oregon, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Penn State, Old

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Penn State, Michigan, all those teams I would make favored

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over Miami, and yet their number two. That's how you

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make money in college football. That's why I've been able

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to crush the college football market this year.

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Speaker 4: Texas A and M.

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Speaker 3: Texas A and M at number four, Texas A and

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M is barely in my top.

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Speaker 4: Fifteen, barely in my top fifteen.

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Speaker 3: I could rat off ten teams that would be favored

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over Texas A and M on a neutral field, that

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will all play itself out as this season progresses. That's

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the beauty of, you know, having games ahead of us.

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It's not a long enough season. It's not baseball where

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you're guaranteed the cream will rise to the top and

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the numbers will play out like they should. But there's

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enough of a season that, like those Phonies, the Miami's,

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the teams like that, they will get exposed. Rest is

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short and still best team coming into the season with

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Ohio State. Best team still is Ohio State, and right

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behind them is Notre Dame and Alabama. But Ohio State's

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still at least a field goal better than the next

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best team in college football.

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Speaker 1: The Ohio State opponent team total under has been an

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absolute gem, and it's getting it's getting ready to flip

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the other way. The Illinois should have gone over that

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team total's there's gonna be a team that starts going

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over against Ohio States if you.

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Speaker 2: All have been riding those streaks like me.

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Speaker 3: Then someone asked about Texas Tech their number seven. I think, yes, seven.

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They just made my top twenty this week. I just

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put them into my top twenty. So they're not a

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top ten team, but they are in the top twenty.

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Speaker 4: I give them that.

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Speaker 3: With Texas Tech, we still have a lot to see.

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But again, strength of schedule is everything. Texas showed that

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against Oklahoma. I got so much pushback on Oklahoma about

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how their number two defense, number one, this number one.

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Its strength of schedule is everything, and luckily we saw

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that play out.

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Speaker 1: Uh do you have your running shoes on so you

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can do your victory lap on Texas?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, yeah, no idea. That game was more important

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to me than anything else. I had a five percent

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yesterday on the New York Jets, and I cared more

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about that day before Open and Johnny were texting each other.

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Speaker 4: I was like, hook them horns, bro, hook them horns.

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This is so big right now. He's like due fifty thousand.

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Speaker 3: He was like, you know, thirty thousand views, all these

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comments you better hope they win. He was messing with me,

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you know, and uh yeah, thank god that came through.

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Speaker 2: Listen.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it's great to be on an island. Sometimes it's

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it's oh yeah.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes I was on the Baltimore Island yesterday that I'm

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still there waiting for a ship to come by and

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pick me off.

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Speaker 4: I'm carving in the sands as.

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Speaker 1: I was all over the I was all over the rams.

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Speaker 4: Actually that's better. From hero to zero in less than

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twenty four hours, bro, so as good as your last bed.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, you know what.

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Speaker 1: I want to finish up our segment by talking about that,

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because last week we talked about these injured quarterbacks and

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I said, I was like, I don't know if these

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00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,200
books are adjusting enough, because I think the Cooper Rush,

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00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,879
you know things, is terrible. But I also said that

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00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,440
Jacoby Brissett thing was was wasn't going to work and

295
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,360
shirt uough they cover, they didn't they covered, but through

296
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from three hundred yards looked pretty good. And Cooper Rush

297
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was downright atrocious.

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Speaker 2: He was awful.

299
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Speaker 1: He got benched, and then Huntley came in and was

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00:15:08,039 --> 00:15:09,600
equally as bad.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, do we.

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Speaker 1: Get any do we get anything solidified about these backup quarterbacks.

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00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 4: Listen, that's what I fell for.

304
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Speaker 3: I fell for that where that I thought Cooper Rush

305
00:15:21,279 --> 00:15:24,039
would like he could only go up from here, you know.

306
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:24,360
Speaker 4: What I mean.

307
00:15:24,399 --> 00:15:27,159
Speaker 3: He had a fifty eight QBR, he threw three interceptions

308
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,000
like you shouldn't come in and with a worse performance

309
00:15:31,039 --> 00:15:35,600
than that, And that was my reasoning, coupled with any

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00:15:35,639 --> 00:15:39,600
pride at all, a good home field advantage getting eight

311
00:15:39,639 --> 00:15:43,440
points like what would they be in LA fourteen, you

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know what I mean?

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Speaker 4: And I was proven wrong because of that.

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Speaker 3: Like I think the sample size matters, and I think

315
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,519
that's where my mistake was that I looked at seasons

316
00:15:55,639 --> 00:15:59,399
of Cooper Rush having a much higher QBR, but that

317
00:15:59,559 --> 00:16:02,519
samples when I look through it again, was small, Like

318
00:16:02,559 --> 00:16:05,279
he had twenty passes one season, you know what I mean,

319
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:09,000
fourteen passes another season, And I think that you know,

320
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,879
you got to always go back and see where were

321
00:16:11,879 --> 00:16:14,440
you off? What was your mistake, you know what I mean?

322
00:16:14,639 --> 00:16:17,000
Other than just did you get any closing line value?

323
00:16:17,159 --> 00:16:20,200
And I think that was my read that I was expecting,

324
00:16:20,279 --> 00:16:23,200
like this kid to progress towards a mean, but his

325
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,000
mean may actually be that bad and he was actually

326
00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,000
outperforming it prior.

327
00:16:28,759 --> 00:16:29,840
Speaker 4: I think that's the key.

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00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 3: But that's why, after passing success rate, the next highest

329
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,720
like stat that I know, as far as correlation, the

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00:16:38,799 --> 00:16:43,360
highest correlation is value over replacement player. So if you're

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00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,519
good at quantifying what that replacement player is worth, you

332
00:16:47,559 --> 00:16:49,440
could do a lot of damage in the market.

333
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Speaker 4: And that's very difficult to do.

334
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 3: I think you got to do it on a case

335
00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:59,440
by case basis obviously, And yeah, with the backup quarterbacks,

336
00:16:59,759 --> 00:17:03,720
the downgrade is usually an overreaction, but we saw yesterday

337
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,680
in Cooper Rush that that wasn't the case, Like that

338
00:17:06,839 --> 00:17:12,200
was understated, not overstated, and just how bag it.

339
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 1: Was also play against the banged up Ravens defense, and

340
00:17:14,519 --> 00:17:17,000
also they have the bye week and it ended up

341
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,200
playing out just like I thought.

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00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,599
Speaker 2: Hardball came out after the game was like, yes, that was.

343
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,920
Speaker 4: A great point, and that worried me.

344
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,079
Speaker 3: I'd already placed my bet, but that worried me because

345
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,279
it made sense, like why are they going to give

346
00:17:30,319 --> 00:17:31,640
effort before the bye week.

347
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,920
Speaker 4: They've already quit. They they're looking at a week off,

348
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,519
They're just going to go through the motions.

349
00:17:36,559 --> 00:17:38,440
Speaker 3: And that's what happened. It should I should have bet

350
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,680
them first half. To be honest with you, that was

351
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,400
another mistake I made. Well, if you're betting bad teams,

352
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,680
remember this in the NFL. If you're afraid to bet

353
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,880
a bad team but you like them, bet them in

354
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,400
the first half. The cream will rise to the top.

355
00:17:51,599 --> 00:17:54,440
But sometimes it takes a little while to systematically break

356
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,880
them down. And a lot of times you'll see them

357
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,960
be competitive in the first half, they have something to

358
00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:02,559
played for, there's a little fire under them. But then

359
00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:05,559
the better team dominates. And we kind of saw that,

360
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,319
and that was again, that was a mistake that I

361
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,599
have to put it in and post it and start to

362
00:18:10,599 --> 00:18:14,640
remind myself NFL bad teams, look at first halfs because

363
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,519
a lot of times you'll get that cover where you

364
00:18:16,559 --> 00:18:17,559
won't for the full game.

365
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:19,319
Speaker 2: Uh.

366
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,799
Speaker 1: This, this tells it all, Yanni, and this, this might

367
00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:23,559
be a bet.

368
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens.

369
00:18:25,039 --> 00:18:28,119
Speaker 1: There, they have one, they have one win, and I

370
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,079
talked about how easy their schedule gets. FanDuel has their

371
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,720
over win total at eight and a half. So the

372
00:18:35,079 --> 00:18:38,000
books are saying, are they gonna win eight games coming

373
00:18:38,039 --> 00:18:40,759
out of the by that's and that's that's exactly what

374
00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:41,200
I thought.

375
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:41,640
Speaker 2: Was gonna happen.

376
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,039
Speaker 1: They're gonna come out and they're gonna rip off seven

377
00:18:44,279 --> 00:18:44,799
eight wins.

378
00:18:44,839 --> 00:18:46,599
Speaker 2: They're gonna be in contention in this division.

379
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,160
Speaker 1: This division is totally gettable, so that the books are

380
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,359
telling you what what what to expect from them.

381
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,519
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm gonna look really really hard about.

382
00:18:55,279 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 1: That one, because this is gonna be a healthy Ravens

383
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,960
team coming out by real really interesting point, really interesting.

384
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:02,519
Speaker 2: All right, Audie, it's a big Monday. What do you

385
00:19:02,559 --> 00:19:03,359
have up for clients.

386
00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:06,119
Speaker 3: It's not up yet, It's going up in the next

387
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:09,559
thirty minutes. I'm doing it because it's warranted. I have

388
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,400
a really, really, really strong lean on Monday Night football

389
00:19:12,759 --> 00:19:15,279
and I just got a confirmation on it.

390
00:19:15,319 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 4: I'm gonna make it five percent move.

391
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,519
Speaker 3: I'm firing tonight, coming off a suite of Sunday night

392
00:19:21,519 --> 00:19:25,359
football with Kansas City and under those primetime games been

393
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:26,039
crushing them.

394
00:19:26,599 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 4: It warrants it big bet coming go to wagertalk dot com.

395
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,880
Speaker 3: That package will be up within the next thirty minutes

396
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,920
with a five percent on Monday Night Football. Look out

397
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,119
for baseball as well, and of course next weekends. Packages

398
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,160
will be up as soon as I start firing and

399
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:44,039
confirm some moves. First losing week in college football, we

400
00:19:44,079 --> 00:19:46,880
had one week zero, one, two, three, four, five six.

401
00:19:47,279 --> 00:19:50,640
We lost in week seven, gave back a couple units,

402
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,079
didn't get crushed. Still up nine d eight units for

403
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,759
the year. So look for a big bounce back week

404
00:19:55,839 --> 00:19:58,839
in college football as well. That's the luck. I'll be

405
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,200
in Vancouver for UFC Vancouver. We'll talk about that nice

406
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,559
later on in the week as well. So yeah, best

407
00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:08,200
of luck, Tall do some damage boys, Yanni.

408
00:20:08,279 --> 00:20:08,759
Speaker 5: You have you have.

409
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,519
Speaker 1: You have one job to do though. You have one

410
00:20:11,559 --> 00:20:13,799
more week of Contender Series to get me some swag.

411
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,640
Speaker 3: I have a bag for you, I swear, I have

412
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,519
a bag for you. I have a bag, A couple,

413
00:20:21,279 --> 00:20:22,240
just a couple of shirts.

414
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: It's all I need.

415
00:20:23,519 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 4: Brother Water, I got you the Dane of white Water.

416
00:20:26,559 --> 00:20:27,759
Speaker 2: It's great. This is great.

417
00:20:27,799 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, we got six fights tomorrow and Contender Series. Enjoy

418
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:33,599
your last last Contenter series of it. Have fun, man,

419
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:35,640
Tell everyone, I said, hi, I love the crew. We

420
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,880
love watching live every week.

421
00:20:38,079 --> 00:20:38,599
Speaker 2: Everyone.

422
00:20:38,759 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah YouTube brother, Uh yeah, last week of Contenter

423
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,319
Series is tomorrow. My five dollars play is going to

424
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,119
be on Contender Series. We're looking to wrap up a

425
00:20:47,319 --> 00:20:50,319
nice season. We've hit our last few contender series plays,

426
00:20:50,319 --> 00:20:52,839
so h stay tuned for tomorrow. All right, let's bring

427
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,880
in Bill and we got to talk about the weekend.

428
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 2: We gotta talk about any MLB insight.

429
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: Bill's Falcons. Oh, happy Monday, how are you hey?

430
00:21:02,079 --> 00:21:03,799
Speaker 5: What's going on? That's what I was just checking. I

431
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,359
was just checking the Falcons line. Looks like the only

432
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,079
place that has it right now is minus one ten.

433
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:14,039
Anyway is bet MGM. So I gave that out earlier

434
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:17,839
in the week and yeah, minus plus four minus fifteen

435
00:21:17,839 --> 00:21:20,480
a couple of sites, but bet MGM plus four minus

436
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:24,640
one ten. You know, you know, I'll notice some of

437
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,240
the slow moving books. This is something for people that

438
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:30,759
are in Las Vegas here. I'll even go nationwide too,

439
00:21:30,799 --> 00:21:33,319
but let me start with Vegas and the amazing how

440
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,240
these subjects are just so spontaneous. You said Falcons had

441
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:40,400
just spawned it, so it's good to have the slower

442
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,519
moving books. Perfect example is this game. So I look

443
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:45,960
at all the different sports books. I have my screen

444
00:21:46,039 --> 00:21:48,720
up and it's it's three and a half. Three and

445
00:21:48,759 --> 00:21:51,519
a half at almost every single book, A couple plus

446
00:21:51,519 --> 00:21:56,359
four minus fifteen minus twenty. But yet in if you

447
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:02,519
have MGM, if you have like the slower season, that's yeah,

448
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:04,920
here's what you need if you come to town. And

449
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,759
if you're serious better and I say serious better, I

450
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,400
just mean one hundred dollars better. And because that's a

451
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:15,079
serious better to me, you have to have bet MGM.

452
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,400
You have to have Caesars. You have to have the win.

453
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:23,759
That's right, the win, the win and stations. And I'm

454
00:22:23,799 --> 00:22:25,240
just saying, like, you know, if you come to town,

455
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,759
like five grand, you're gonna be betting put a thousand

456
00:22:28,799 --> 00:22:32,400
in each app. You know, you need those extra half

457
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,839
a point. And here's a perfect example tonight. I know

458
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,160
it's not such a key number, there really is. The

459
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,599
key numbers in the NFL have really diminished compared to

460
00:22:42,839 --> 00:22:46,039
a decade ago where the three and the seven were

461
00:22:46,079 --> 00:22:49,880
so important. You know now with the analytics, the two

462
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,279
point conversions they do and the extra ten extra yards

463
00:22:53,279 --> 00:22:57,440
on the extra point, but still they do fall. Things

464
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,720
still fall twenty seven to twenty three, and you know,

465
00:23:00,799 --> 00:23:03,960
and that's tonight, that should be the line. Actually, twenty

466
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,279
seven to twenty three. The lines totals fifty sides about four,

467
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,440
so you have to have lots of books in your

468
00:23:11,559 --> 00:23:14,359
arsenal if you're serious, and then maybe blunt people that

469
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,160
watch the show, that watch wager Talk, they are usually

470
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,039
the more serious crowd to try to get more information.

471
00:23:21,279 --> 00:23:25,200
So yeah, Andy, they oh, I was talking about nationwide,

472
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,240
So nationwide. Yes, I know I'm not allowed to play

473
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,880
there because I use my brain. But DraftKings. You should

474
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:37,519
have DraftKings. You should have fan Duel and the other couples,

475
00:23:37,519 --> 00:23:39,440
a couple of faghesy books that are scared of death.

476
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,839
The ESPN bet rivers like, you need those books even

477
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,480
though I'm not allowed to play there. You guys that

478
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,559
are betting, you know, under five hundred dollars, you should

479
00:23:49,599 --> 00:23:52,400
have those books in your arsenal if you're serious. Now,

480
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,480
if you're doing this just to have fun and socially,

481
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,880
and you know, I understand you want to have one book.

482
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,119
Or maybe it's just your local guy and no one's

483
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:04,920
gonna talk to you like this too. There's no one

484
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,759
that only me and maybe Jeohnny who has the pulse

485
00:24:07,799 --> 00:24:11,279
of local guys. If you are playing with a local guy,

486
00:24:11,559 --> 00:24:14,759
there's some advice. You should be getting a rebate, that's right,

487
00:24:14,839 --> 00:24:17,480
you should be getting a rebate. It's real simple. There's

488
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,279
sports books everywhere now, you should just tell them, hey,

489
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,880
you're looking for ten or twenty percent, start at twenty.

490
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,599
This way, you know you can get down to that ten.

491
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,880
You're looking for twenty percent back of your losses. And

492
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,519
you know you want to rebate every week. So you

493
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,279
always want to have an edge in this. And having

494
00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:37,240
that edge playing a lot of volume and looking like

495
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,359
you're more of a sucker, you know, playing your stuff

496
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:44,000
on Sundays, which is NFL Sundays. You want to make sure, though,

497
00:24:44,039 --> 00:24:46,759
you negotiate the best deal for yourself and the best

498
00:24:46,759 --> 00:24:50,279
deal locals. I just told you there's even if you're

499
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,640
more serious, better and I meet serious, like five hundred bucks,

500
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:58,519
then you'll want to get a host at Draftking Fandel,

501
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,880
even the ESPN, even these they all have casino hosts

502
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,440
that left the casino industry and are now working for

503
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,079
these big sites, and they'll incentivize you with different things.

504
00:25:08,319 --> 00:25:10,119
To be honest with you, they could save all the

505
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,640
seats to the games. You could save the memorabilia, the hats,

506
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,559
the shirts, Please take them out. I want cash, Put

507
00:25:17,599 --> 00:25:20,079
cash in my account, put free bets in my account.

508
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,680
That's what you asked for. And uh, that's a spontaneous

509
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,599
tip that I wasn't even planning to talk about there

510
00:25:25,599 --> 00:25:29,079
and see what you did rams And that was the

511
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:29,640
end of Rico.

512
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,799
Speaker 1: So there's this rep here in Indiana and they reach

513
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,799
out to me, not very often but every once in

514
00:25:37,839 --> 00:25:41,480
a while, and it is hilarious. So I hit DraftKings Big.

515
00:25:41,519 --> 00:25:44,000
I told the story last week. I hit DraftKings Big

516
00:25:44,039 --> 00:25:47,720
on Tuesday on Contender Series. And this weekend they were like, hey,

517
00:25:47,759 --> 00:25:50,839
we put like ten boosts in your account for NFL,

518
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,279
and I was like, of course you went me bending NFL,

519
00:25:57,319 --> 00:26:00,799
not taking taking a boost though at.

520
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 5: Least you're still a lot to bet there, because you know,

521
00:26:02,799 --> 00:26:07,839
it's amazing sometimes how stupid these sports books are. They literally, well,

522
00:26:07,839 --> 00:26:09,839
I know someone that got thrown off a bet in tennis.

523
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,160
So he bet tennis, he won thirty five thousand. He

524
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,799
loses six figures a year in the NFL three seasons

525
00:26:16,839 --> 00:26:19,519
in a row, and they cut him down to five

526
00:26:19,599 --> 00:26:23,240
hundred dollars, three hundred and fifty dollars. Like this guy

527
00:26:23,319 --> 00:26:25,759
bets five ten thousand a game. He lost one hundred

528
00:26:25,759 --> 00:26:28,960
and eighty thousand one year, one hundred back to back seasons,

529
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,319
but they cut him because he got lucky in tennis.

530
00:26:31,559 --> 00:26:34,839
It's just it's short, small ball thinking. And I think

531
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,240
if like the CEOs of the company, presidents or in

532
00:26:38,279 --> 00:26:41,119
this case, the board of directors is the public company,

533
00:26:41,319 --> 00:26:43,400
if they ever knew what went on with some of

534
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:47,319
these traders that are jealous and upset that someone won

535
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:52,079
on their shift, they would just go absolutely Haywire and bothers.

536
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: So, yeah, I the bet rivers and the ESPN bets

537
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,759
and the fanatics like those are long gone for me.

538
00:26:58,839 --> 00:26:59,799
Speaker 2: Those are those are yea?

539
00:27:00,079 --> 00:27:02,759
Speaker 1: Those are those are zero dollar balances.

540
00:27:03,279 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, they just they go in and they do a

541
00:27:05,279 --> 00:27:08,319
fingerprint and eye skin and once you get that, you're done. Yeah,

542
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,359
they're they're afraid. Oh he has a pulse, he bleeds red.

543
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:12,119
Get him out of here.

544
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,079
Speaker 1: Let's let's start our attention to a prop for Monday

545
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,160
night football. Here, let's take a look at the Bills

546
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:19,960
and Falcons. What's a prop you like in this one?

547
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,079
Speaker 5: Well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna throw you guys

548
00:27:22,079 --> 00:27:24,480
a prop. Uh. You know, we were we gave we

549
00:27:24,559 --> 00:27:26,799
gave one out at Wader Talk. But I'll give it

550
00:27:26,839 --> 00:27:29,359
to anyone here that that watch is also for free.

551
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:32,160
Let's go to let's go to the Deebo Samuel. On

552
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,680
the other hand, let's go to Debo under fifty eight

553
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,559
and a half receiving yards and let me just tell

554
00:27:37,599 --> 00:27:42,079
you widely available still. So Debo under fifty eight and

555
00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:44,640
a half. I think he gets less work tonight. And

556
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,319
just checking the MGM line, you know, I MGM is

557
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,039
one of one of my books here. I mean, yeah,

558
00:27:50,079 --> 00:27:52,279
they have they have so many good things that but

559
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,200
we only have like two sports books that offer so

560
00:27:56,279 --> 00:27:58,319
many different ways to bet and so many different props

561
00:27:58,319 --> 00:28:01,640
I have. I have MGM and Caesars. Of course, not

562
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,799
all have to play in Caesars. They threw me out

563
00:28:03,839 --> 00:28:08,119
for using my brain. But so yeah, Deebo Samuel, Yeah,

564
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,160
it's still fifty eight and a half. So you got

565
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,119
you got a couple, uh, you got a couple of

566
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,079
things there to uh, a couple of different Now again,

567
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,519
isn't it good to get an extra half a yard

568
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,559
or whatever it may be? Like, you really want to

569
00:28:21,599 --> 00:28:25,519
make sure that you have more outs. So I'm only

570
00:28:25,599 --> 00:28:28,440
giving you one line, but I know that that's still available.

571
00:28:28,519 --> 00:28:31,920
So yeah, Debo, you know, he had some injury there

572
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,200
that you know that he still might be reeling from

573
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:35,480
a little bit. But I think they're gonna go to

574
00:28:35,559 --> 00:28:37,759
him less. So there's a there's a free prop for

575
00:28:37,799 --> 00:28:41,640
you guys. What else now, Atlanta? I said that out

576
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,359
earlier in the week and you know the week and

577
00:28:43,759 --> 00:28:47,200
when it was plus four. I really don't do a

578
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,279
lot of NFL sides. I do them for you guys.

579
00:28:50,599 --> 00:28:52,559
I give you one of my one of my top

580
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,359
guys that is a winning and an NFL side guy.

581
00:28:55,599 --> 00:28:57,279
They only give you, I think I only give out

582
00:28:57,319 --> 00:29:00,839
two this week. One was Tampa and one here is

583
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,839
trying to go two and oh with them this week.

584
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,920
May have a couple more for your next week. We

585
00:29:07,079 --> 00:29:11,000
like a couple of lines for next week. So yeah,

586
00:29:11,039 --> 00:29:14,519
so that's that's really it. We have a couple off

587
00:29:14,519 --> 00:29:18,759
of bye week. This game. This should be an interesting

588
00:29:18,799 --> 00:29:22,359
you know, when you look at the public, thinking about

589
00:29:22,359 --> 00:29:26,519
the public, they're only gonna know the what these teams

590
00:29:26,559 --> 00:29:29,599
have done in the past. So when they when you hear,

591
00:29:30,079 --> 00:29:34,599
I'll give you the list bills Kansas City. You know

592
00:29:34,759 --> 00:29:36,799
super Bowl winners, you want to always go with the

593
00:29:36,799 --> 00:29:40,880
Super Bowl contenders. Philadelphia Eagles those teams. By betting on

594
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:45,160
those teams on a primetime game compared to a regular

595
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,759
game that's a Sunday afternoon, you're gonna pay a tax

596
00:29:48,799 --> 00:29:50,960
and a lot of markets in the way of an

597
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,559
extra half a point or juice because they already know

598
00:29:54,759 --> 00:29:58,039
which way you're betting on games. So we may get

599
00:29:58,079 --> 00:30:02,519
this for tonight on Atlanta again and again. Just to

600
00:30:02,519 --> 00:30:05,400
give you an example, you should bet three times more

601
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,440
on the prop than you should on the side. So

602
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,200
I'll just tell you right now you should put three

603
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,680
times more money. It's all about bankroll management and percentage

604
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,319
of bankroll, so you should bet more money on your props.

605
00:30:17,559 --> 00:30:20,599
In general, props are much easier to beat, as you

606
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,480
can tell this season when I'm when I'm doing and

607
00:30:22,599 --> 00:30:24,839
what I've done my whole entire life compared to the

608
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,160
NFL sides. I do think we'll have a winning NFL

609
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,279
side season. But you know when when you're dealing with

610
00:30:31,319 --> 00:30:35,319
a handicapper that's a fifty five fifty six percent lifetime

611
00:30:35,599 --> 00:30:41,839
winner betting NFL or anything, and he's going right now

612
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,359
at fifty one and a half percent, now is probably

613
00:30:45,359 --> 00:30:48,400
the time to jump on that because if he's going

614
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,519
to return to the mean. He's probably going to have

615
00:30:51,599 --> 00:30:55,279
a year where he's gonna finish out fifty seven percent

616
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,599
and and bring that that number back up. So you know,

617
00:30:59,799 --> 00:31:02,079
the great Alan Boston taught me that. You know, he said,

618
00:31:02,079 --> 00:31:04,720
you know, when someone is a lifetime handicapper like he

619
00:31:04,799 --> 00:31:08,920
is fifty eight percent and college basketball and he's hitting

620
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,400
fifty two percent, well, and now's the time to jump

621
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,599
on him. Probably. You know, one of the genius minds

622
00:31:14,839 --> 00:31:19,039
of all time. Friend of mine, you know Alan, I

623
00:31:19,079 --> 00:31:22,680
put him on my podcast once a year for March Madness,

624
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:28,000
and he's highly intellectual, Pengrad super genius. Sometimes can't come

625
00:31:28,039 --> 00:31:33,319
off socially very well, but he trust me, it's because

626
00:31:33,319 --> 00:31:36,759
he's eccentric, because he is that genius of a guy.

627
00:31:37,079 --> 00:31:39,240
And you know, for people that again, I can go

628
00:31:39,319 --> 00:31:41,960
off on tangus here, people that sometimes say something about

629
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,119
Alan's in that one of the most generous guys I

630
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:48,880
know loaned himself broke. That's right. He loaned himself broke,

631
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:53,400
gives money to charities, dog charities, helps everybody, and loaned

632
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,079
himself broke multiple times. And anyone that knows Alan will

633
00:31:57,119 --> 00:32:01,039
know what I'm talking about there, Andy, I don't know

634
00:32:01,039 --> 00:32:02,759
if you're gonna go off at the baseball a little bit,

635
00:32:02,759 --> 00:32:04,640
but if you're I'm sure you were going. But I

636
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,160
asked a question. Yea question for you. Hey crack, we

637
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,680
do have baseball. Oh Andy, Okay, here, let me just

638
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:15,799
tell you. I love playoff baseball. I love watching playoff baseball.

639
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,759
I watched back to back games last week and I

640
00:32:20,839 --> 00:32:23,160
usually never do something like that. I mean, it was

641
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,440
just so cool. I was over at the West Gate.

642
00:32:25,519 --> 00:32:27,720
I was doing a show over there on my podcast,

643
00:32:28,079 --> 00:32:29,559
and it just what happens that one of my co

644
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,599
hosts from my Fox show on the weekends, he was

645
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,079
over there, so I said, come on, I watch a game.

646
00:32:34,119 --> 00:32:35,480
I wanted to watch the two games from the back

647
00:32:35,519 --> 00:32:39,759
to back. Nothing better than playoff baseball when it means everything,

648
00:32:39,799 --> 00:32:42,440
the heart and soul of the teams are left out

649
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,519
there on the field at the end. It's just so good,

650
00:32:45,799 --> 00:32:49,119
Seattle that fifteen in game I watched that. I think

651
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,880
it was Friday night. That was that was just so good.

652
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,559
You know, we had the four best teams left too.

653
00:32:54,599 --> 00:32:57,640
I'll just tell you. And unlike what a lot of

654
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,119
people think, I think it's kind of a shoot. I

655
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,359
don't think the Dodgers are a lot of the Dodgers.

656
00:33:03,359 --> 00:33:06,960
That's easy there. Why even play? I come on, well,

657
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,480
first of all, I have a Seattle future, so yeah,

658
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,200
I need Seattle to win. And that was that's why

659
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,240
I'm saying that that fifteen game was unbelievable. But yeah,

660
00:33:17,279 --> 00:33:20,880
so I love it though, it's for everything. I absolutely

661
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,119
love the baseball and I think it's a great time

662
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,519
of the year right now. The weather's changing now here

663
00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:28,920
in Vegas the last two days. I told my wife yesterday,

664
00:33:29,119 --> 00:33:31,519
I said, Wow, what a difference. You used to go

665
00:33:31,559 --> 00:33:33,519
out in the morning and it was eighty five degrees.

666
00:33:33,559 --> 00:33:36,480
Why not? I said, it was seventy sixty five this morning.

667
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,279
Forget it sixty degrees, but I you could feel it

668
00:33:40,319 --> 00:33:44,359
in the air. Though its baseball playoff, NFL season. Just

669
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,480
a great time and even a good time to come

670
00:33:46,519 --> 00:33:48,759
out to Vegas. You know, all my guys they're wearing

671
00:33:48,799 --> 00:33:51,559
their h they'll bring out their hoodies, wear pair of shorts,

672
00:33:51,599 --> 00:33:53,079
you know, a little bit whack of doos. You know.

673
00:33:54,079 --> 00:33:56,240
That's what my East Coast guys though, because they used

674
00:33:56,279 --> 00:33:58,839
to be in a freezing they don't care get down

675
00:33:58,839 --> 00:34:01,559
to fifty degrees at night. But yeah, so good time

676
00:34:01,559 --> 00:34:03,559
of the year to be in Vegas. Good time of

677
00:34:03,599 --> 00:34:04,200
the year to be a foo.

678
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,519
Speaker 2: Who do you like? In baseball? Who do you like?

679
00:34:07,599 --> 00:34:08,840
You got a team you're betting on?

680
00:34:09,559 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not betting. I gotta go at Seattle.

681
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,639
I have. I have multiple futures on Seattle. You know,

682
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,519
I'm one of those rare guys that's in you know,

683
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,480
the media space, and you know a lot of these

684
00:34:20,519 --> 00:34:22,679
a lot of these people that are in media and stuffy.

685
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,920
They just all talk a good game and none of

686
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,039
them even none of them even bet. So here you go,

687
00:34:27,119 --> 00:34:29,159
there's one bet. There's one bet for you, Andy, you know,

688
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:32,360
if you can see that. I need the Mariners desperately,

689
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,960
so nice, you know, just a nice bet. I mean

690
00:34:36,159 --> 00:34:38,280
I found that. How could I find that bet? Now?

691
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,119
I can't even I couldn't have to do that to

692
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:43,960
the public. It was twenty to one everywhere, and for

693
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,119
some reason, Circa had thirty to one, so on Seattle

694
00:34:48,159 --> 00:34:50,679
to win. But I did put out of Seattle Future

695
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,679
earlier this season, so I need them and hopefully we

696
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:55,679
get there with that. But yeah, no, and it's been

697
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:57,599
a it's been a good season. It's a grind. I'm

698
00:34:57,679 --> 00:35:01,960
up twenty some units in and this year, and and

699
00:35:02,519 --> 00:35:06,920
you know overall wager talk in sports on football so

700
00:35:07,039 --> 00:35:10,920
far this season. So yeah, twenty two minits. I mean

701
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:12,199
they had it down. I knew what it was, but

702
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,719
I see that on the homepage there. The football has

703
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,840
been good. College has been good. It's been a little

704
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,719
bit of a grind these last two weeks, but it's good.

705
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,840
Now we've got basketball is getting ready to start up.

706
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,039
On college basketball. Oh boy, I just love that. It's

707
00:35:26,039 --> 00:35:28,920
a great, great sport to bet for me, especially a

708
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,559
little bit earlier when the season's a little softer. Lots

709
00:35:32,559 --> 00:35:35,079
of different make sure you have, you know, lots of

710
00:35:35,079 --> 00:35:38,800
different books because now these bookmakers have a little bit

711
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,000
harder time too. You don't understand. I've been saying this

712
00:35:41,039 --> 00:35:43,119
for years too. I'll be talking about this in a

713
00:35:43,119 --> 00:35:44,639
couple weeks, so I shouldn't even go into it now.

714
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,639
It's harder to run a sportsbook though, when you have

715
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,960
three hundred lines to put up compared to you know,

716
00:35:51,079 --> 00:35:53,920
eighty line, sixty lines. Yeah, it's harder. You have different

717
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,639
people in departments. I'll explain that though on a future

718
00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:58,960
show here when college basketball starts.

719
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:01,679
Speaker 1: All right, awesome stuff, Bill, What do you have up

720
00:36:01,679 --> 00:36:02,400
for clients?

721
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course. Now tonight, same thing. We have a

722
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,760
top Monday and I play just fifteen bucks. We have

723
00:36:11,559 --> 00:36:14,000
our season player. I always tell people they got to

724
00:36:14,039 --> 00:36:16,159
get in for the instead of them, And then I

725
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,840
understand people like doing a one day pass. I get it.

726
00:36:19,039 --> 00:36:20,920
So if you like that, you like a three day pass.

727
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,599
You know, anything can happen in one or three days.

728
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,840
Long term though, seven day past, thirty day pass, ninety day.

729
00:36:28,119 --> 00:36:30,480
That's where I say, get me, lock me up until

730
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,880
the end of At the end of Super Bowl, you

731
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,000
want to get in on those props too, so you're

732
00:36:36,039 --> 00:36:39,760
gonna be happy with that. So every week, great props.

733
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,639
We send a lot of things out, even towards the

734
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,679
day of the game, when things are available. We get

735
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:48,039
obtainable lines. I'm not one of those people that are

736
00:36:48,039 --> 00:36:51,239
gonna tell you could bet this at Rivers, you can

737
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:53,800
bet this at DraftKings. No, I'm gonna give you an

738
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,159
obtainable line. I'm not gonna pad my record by doing that.

739
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,800
I don't do that. It's total bs. All right, I've said.

740
00:36:59,679 --> 00:37:03,039
Speaker 1: Enough, all right, Bill crack Man. Every Monday, always bringing

741
00:37:03,039 --> 00:37:05,800
the heat. Thanks Bill, having a great week. Can't wait

742
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,159
to do it again next next week. All right, we're

743
00:37:08,159 --> 00:37:10,079
gonna bring in Steve Merrill here in a bit. But Steve,

744
00:37:10,079 --> 00:37:11,760
I want you to watch this segment because we're doing

745
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,679
NFL overreactions and I want to get your thoughts on

746
00:37:15,519 --> 00:37:17,480
some of these before we bring you on. All right,

747
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:22,239
not a big week of overreactions, but we do have

748
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:27,320
a couple dynamite ones. I mean the Jackson Dart cams Kataboo.

749
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,639
Have the Giants completely turned around after one win. This

750
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,840
is the ultimate overreaction. So Jackson Dart Camskataboo, the Giants

751
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:38,320
are Super Bowl contenders. Now, I got to give a

752
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:39,960
shout out to the chat. A couple of people said,

753
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:45,800
Jacobe Brissette is gonna be better than Kyler Murray.

754
00:37:45,199 --> 00:37:46,159
Speaker 4: Three hundred yards.

755
00:37:46,159 --> 00:37:47,079
Speaker 2: He looked pretty good.

756
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,639
Speaker 1: It's kind of a little bit of an overreaction. And

757
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,159
then we got Baker Mayfield for MVP. I don't know

758
00:37:54,159 --> 00:37:56,920
if that's an overreaction. That just might be a reacting

759
00:37:57,559 --> 00:37:58,679
to what we've seen here.

760
00:37:58,760 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: So those are.

761
00:37:59,599 --> 00:38:02,199
Speaker 1: Three overreaction or are we overreacting?

762
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:02,559
Speaker 2: I don't know.

763
00:38:02,559 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 1: Maybe they're overreactions. Maybe they're not so. All right, Let's

764
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:08,119
move on to where the books won and where the

765
00:38:08,159 --> 00:38:13,199
public one books did pretty well. Here the Broncos minus

766
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:14,880
the points. That was a big win for them, The

767
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,679
Colts minus the points, the Cowboys minus the points, and

768
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:18,920
the Packers minus the points.

769
00:38:19,159 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 2: Big wins for the books.

770
00:38:20,519 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 1: The public one on the Cleveland Pittsburgh game under, the

771
00:38:24,559 --> 00:38:28,719
Baltimore La Rams under, and the Raiders.

772
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 2: Minus the points. Those are big wins for the public.

773
00:38:30,559 --> 00:38:35,199
Speaker 1: To move on to props and fantasy football winners and losers.

774
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,000
All right, we got a lot of winners here this week.

775
00:38:39,079 --> 00:38:43,360
Dallas Goddard for Dan's Eagles is huge. Cam Scattaboy, of course,

776
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,079
Trey McBride continues to produce. Tyler Warren is having just

777
00:38:47,199 --> 00:38:50,960
an incredible rookie season for a Titan. Normally tight ends

778
00:38:51,039 --> 00:38:54,320
rookie seasons. They can they can struggle, but we saw

779
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,760
it last year with Brock Bauer and Tyler Warren's having

780
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,800
a good one. Kimani Vidal looks like he's got that

781
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,440
job until Mario Hampton comes back. For the Chargers. Backfield,

782
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,199
Kayshawn Boody is hit or missed, but.

783
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: He was a big winner yesterday.

784
00:39:06,519 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: Rico Doubtele one of what six players in the last

785
00:39:10,519 --> 00:39:13,119
forty years to have two hundred yards plus and back

786
00:39:13,159 --> 00:39:16,039
to back weeks. Brian Thomas Junior finally we have a

787
00:39:16,079 --> 00:39:18,960
pulse on him. Derreck Henry didn't score but got a

788
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,360
bunch of yards there. Josh Jacobs, big winner. Kendrick Bourne,

789
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,119
Cameron Johnson. He's gonna get a lot of looks for

790
00:39:25,159 --> 00:39:27,880
Tampa Bay with the injuries in that the wide receiver,

791
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,320
So look for Cameron Johnson here, Devon a Chin and

792
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:35,559
Jaylen Waddle and DK Metcalf really really good winners.

793
00:39:36,079 --> 00:39:36,599
Speaker 2: Losers.

794
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley, Dan, we may have a Saquon Barkley problem

795
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,400
for this year. He's not looking that good. The Broncos

796
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,039
Jets game we all lost there where there were no

797
00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:49,440
winners in that one. The Browns running backs were terrible yesterday,

798
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,599
and Travis Etn should have had a good day yesterday

799
00:39:52,639 --> 00:39:55,800
and did not. So those are your props and fantasy losers.

800
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 6: Andy, I just remember a props in Parlays Morning Show,

801
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:00,960
and you and Andy are you and Andrew? We're saying, oh,

802
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:02,960
say Quant'll be fine. I said, he has a really

803
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,079
bad offensive line in front of him. He had a

804
00:40:05,159 --> 00:40:08,760
bunch of carries last year. He has a horrible offensive coordinator.

805
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,000
He's a bad running back on a bad football team.

806
00:40:12,039 --> 00:40:14,800
Right now, that's just that's the reality of it. I

807
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,760
hate to say it, Andy, but the reality of it.

808
00:40:18,599 --> 00:40:21,920
While you're six straight games, six straight games, the Eagles

809
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:22,559
have been out game.

810
00:40:22,679 --> 00:40:25,679
Speaker 1: That's a saving saving it for the end of the season.

811
00:40:25,679 --> 00:40:28,079
While you're on here, Dan, congratulations to you and me.

812
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,199
We advance in Survivor. Very very well done.

813
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: Let's go, let's go. You went with the.

814
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 1: Packers, took the UK, took the easy one this week,

815
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,840
and I was with the Rams all over the Ravens.

816
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:45,639
So all right, let's bring on Steve Merrill. Steve, what

817
00:40:45,679 --> 00:40:46,800
was your what was your favorite?

818
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 2: Overreaction?

819
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:52,559
Speaker 1: Baker MVP uh, Jacoby Brissetts better than Kyler Murray and

820
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,639
Jackson Dart and Cam Scataboo have completely changed the Giants.

821
00:40:56,679 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 2: What was your favorite?

822
00:40:57,559 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 7: Well, I have to apologize, Andy, because I've already overreacted,

823
00:41:00,039 --> 00:41:02,639
and I assumed Joe Flacco was hosting the show today.

824
00:41:02,639 --> 00:41:04,840
He's just been everywhere, So I apologize.

825
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:05,199
Speaker 5: I was not.

826
00:41:05,159 --> 00:41:07,199
Speaker 7: Expecting to see you. I thought if it had something

827
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:08,719
to do with orange and a little bit of black

828
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,239
or brown. It'ld be Joe Flacco since it's way you talk.

829
00:41:11,559 --> 00:41:14,920
But it's good to see you. Nonetheless, the preset one

830
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:16,559
is interesting to me. I just pulled up the numbers

831
00:41:16,559 --> 00:41:18,280
because I was hoping to say, maybe he's got a

832
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,440
better quarterback rating career than Kyler Murray. I could find

833
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,480
a better yard for pass now. Murray's better on every

834
00:41:23,519 --> 00:41:26,239
metric that I just looked at during the careers. So

835
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,880
that's obviously an overreaction. And Murray runs better, so that

836
00:41:29,159 --> 00:41:31,519
one's a no brainer. Mayfield, by the way third and

837
00:41:31,639 --> 00:41:34,679
MVP odds right now, Alan two to one, Mahomes three

838
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,079
to one, Mayfield four to one. So I don't think

839
00:41:37,079 --> 00:41:39,199
that's too much of an overreaction. Four to one odds

840
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,320
might be an overreaction, but he's definitely in the mix.

841
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,159
And then I gotta say I'm drinking the kool aid

842
00:41:44,199 --> 00:41:47,480
on the Jackson dart Skettaboo thing. Oh no, I had

843
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,039
that game on the second half. I like Jackson dart Man.

844
00:41:50,039 --> 00:41:52,760
He's a polite kid, he's nice, he didn't seem too cocky.

845
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,719
He's gotta do Rick shirt off with Fitzpatrick on the

846
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,280
post game show Thursday night. I had to watch. It

847
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,039
was the first time we'd missed my free Thursday night

848
00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:04,079
Prime game all night. We're still six to one this

849
00:42:04,159 --> 00:42:05,719
year on the Thursday Night free picks, and that's the

850
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:07,760
first one I'd missed because I had the Eagles, so

851
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:10,639
I was following it closely. And boy did Philly catch

852
00:42:10,679 --> 00:42:13,599
a break yesterday. A lifelong Eagle from my buddy Scott

853
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:15,840
Walton was so happy the Panthers won that game, so

854
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:17,679
that that really made up for the Giant loss and

855
00:42:17,679 --> 00:42:20,039
away with Dallas dropping that game yesterday.

856
00:42:21,159 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: I think Kim Scataboo and Jackson Dart are both going

857
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:24,880
to be hurting a few weeks if they try and.

858
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 7: Right, I tot they agree with you. No, there's no

859
00:42:26,519 --> 00:42:29,559
question that was but it is amazing. I mean that team,

860
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,199
if you take out the cowboy terrible defense, they scored

861
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,559
what six and nine points offensively, like in the other

862
00:42:34,599 --> 00:42:38,679
two games to start the season. That was interesting Thursday night.

863
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:40,440
We'll see which way it goes. I mean, the Eagles

864
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,760
might really be down. The Giants maybe have found a spark.

865
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,800
I think it's probably as always a little bit in between.

866
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,039
Speaker 1: Hey, can you explain to me why Jackson Dark gets

867
00:42:48,079 --> 00:42:51,639
evaluated for a concussion? The coach breaks into the day,

868
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:56,519
but then he calls running plays. He's calling running plays

869
00:42:56,519 --> 00:42:59,559
for his quarterback that just got evaluated for a concussion.

870
00:42:59,679 --> 00:43:01,119
Speaker 2: He was he was you doing?

871
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,039
Speaker 7: I will tell you that's one of the reasons I'm

872
00:43:03,119 --> 00:43:06,159
kind of buying in on this, because he was visibly

873
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,239
mad that they would not let him back in sooner.

874
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,719
The coach, I've never seen a coach. I'm glad you

875
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,079
brought that up. I've never seen a coach so upset

876
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,800
with like a neutral third party doctor or protocol guy,

877
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,119
whoever that is, that he couldn't get in a player

878
00:43:18,119 --> 00:43:20,119
too sooner. So that tells you the coach is buying

879
00:43:20,119 --> 00:43:21,880
into it. At least. God, it's got to be one

880
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,719
in the ten. Also, but he's so small they didn't

881
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,519
see him for a couple of plays. But yeah, he's

882
00:43:26,039 --> 00:43:28,880
that was fun. Yeah I'm not that's you kind of

883
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:29,599
want to root for him.

884
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,679
Speaker 1: Don't call running plays for your quarterback but just got

885
00:43:32,679 --> 00:43:34,440
evaluated for a concussion.

886
00:43:34,559 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 7: My god, Andy, I thought of you and Dan though,

887
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,400
because remember when we were doing the season wins, we

888
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:40,840
all said we can't make a case for the Giants

889
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:42,280
over what was it five and a half?

890
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 2: I think and a half?

891
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,079
Speaker 7: And you and I both said, like this is the

892
00:43:45,119 --> 00:43:47,360
most one sided, Like you can't make a case for it.

893
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,440
But I said, the one case you could mob probably

894
00:43:49,519 --> 00:43:52,800
make is like the Jaden Daniels scenarios of Jackson Dark

895
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:55,000
comes in and sparks him. And at that point he

896
00:43:55,119 --> 00:43:58,039
was looking really good in the preseason as well, So

897
00:43:58,159 --> 00:44:00,280
I do think there could be something there. But we'll see.

898
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:01,960
We'll see if that O line is improved because they've

899
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:03,159
been so bad in years past.

900
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 1: Never forget they lost to the Saints. Okay, let's let's

901
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,079
pump the brakes, so let us not forget.

902
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 7: I used it as a free I used the Saints

903
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,119
as a free plan. I was mad I didn't make

904
00:44:11,159 --> 00:44:12,679
that a best bet a week ago. So that's how

905
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,400
quickly things can change in the NFL.

906
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk Bears and Commanders here and then we're

907
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,920
going to give out some of your thoughts on baseball.

908
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,079
Speaker 2: Let's start with Bears Commanders. How do you preview this game?

909
00:44:22,519 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 5: Yeah?

910
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 7: First of all, I've got a doubleheader video on wager

911
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,039
Talk TV right now, so I've got a full deep

912
00:44:27,119 --> 00:44:29,840
dive breakdown for this game and also for that Bill's

913
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,239
Falcons game. And by the way, there is a little

914
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:34,199
bit of a sharp square divide in the game, and

915
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:35,800
I will go deeper to that in the video. Also,

916
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:37,960
my favor the public video has the Buffalo Atlanta game.

917
00:44:38,039 --> 00:44:40,400
So some other homework for you viewers after the live

918
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:42,440
show here today, dig into that video. I've got Buffalo

919
00:44:42,519 --> 00:44:44,679
Atlanta and then this game Chicago Washington at eight to

920
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:48,360
fifteen Eastern ABC, Not my Washington Commanders against not my

921
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,199
Chicago Bears. I think back to the eighties when Darryl

922
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,440
Green ran that punt return back in the playoff game

923
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,920
at Soldier Field, holding his rib, he pulled the muscles,

924
00:44:55,920 --> 00:45:00,000
he hurtled somebody and scored. This isn't the same Bears team. Obviously,

925
00:45:00,079 --> 00:45:03,119
the Commanders are up and coming. I still don't think

926
00:45:03,159 --> 00:45:06,000
they're necessarily for real. A big win for them last

927
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:07,960
week against the Chargers. But what jumps out to me

928
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:09,559
in this game I want to talk about the total

929
00:45:09,559 --> 00:45:13,039
here for a free play is the over and the

930
00:45:13,079 --> 00:45:16,119
Bears run defense right now has been historically bad this season.

931
00:45:16,159 --> 00:45:19,199
They're giving up six point one yards per carry and

932
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,679
one hundred and sixty four rushing yards per game, and

933
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,199
now they're facing a Commander's team that averages almost six

934
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,400
yards per carry on one hundred and fifty six yards

935
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,559
per game. Commanders also have a solid passes attack. They've

936
00:45:29,559 --> 00:45:32,880
actually faced some very difficult pass defenses. In fact, their

937
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,519
opponents played this year allow just five point eight yards

938
00:45:35,519 --> 00:45:39,400
per pass. Bears give up seven point five overall, almost

939
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:40,920
seven yards per play. Now they are starting to get

940
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,719
a little healthier on defense, and I do think those

941
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:44,920
numbers are going to come down, just not sure they're

942
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,000
going to come down enough tonight to get this to

943
00:45:47,039 --> 00:45:48,679
be a low scoring game. And on the other side

944
00:45:48,679 --> 00:45:50,039
of the ball, I think the Bears can move it

945
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:53,360
offensively as well. Like the scheduling set up here. First

946
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:55,599
of all, for Chicago coming in off the bye week,

947
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:57,760
and they also had back to back wins before the

948
00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,519
bye against Dallas and the Raiders. They put up fifty

949
00:46:00,519 --> 00:46:02,880
six combined points in those games, put up forty five

950
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:04,960
combined in the first two games. They've actually been moving

951
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,400
the ball better than people realize, and it's been through

952
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,119
the air. Russian attack has been very mediocre, but the

953
00:46:10,119 --> 00:46:13,679
Commander's run defense is solid. The Commander's pass defense is awful.

954
00:46:14,039 --> 00:46:15,800
Give it up over seven and a half yards per

955
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,639
pass this year against teams that averages six point eight.

956
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,280
So let's not overthink this pun intended. I was gonna

957
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,199
say no pun intended, but I'm meant a pun because

958
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:26,639
you've got a week past a defense against a team

959
00:46:26,679 --> 00:46:29,000
that throws week run d against a team that runs

960
00:46:29,559 --> 00:46:31,480
over the forty nine. Forty nine and a half is

961
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,079
the way to play Monday night football here at eight

962
00:46:33,079 --> 00:46:35,880
to fifteen Eastern. And don't forget, I've got free plays

963
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,480
also in analysis for that Buffalo Atlanta game. Free play

964
00:46:38,559 --> 00:46:41,239
video right here on wager Talk TV. Make sure you

965
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,119
click subscribe. You click that bell as well for an

966
00:46:43,119 --> 00:46:43,679
instant alert.

967
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,039
Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at baseball. We get

968
00:46:48,039 --> 00:46:51,400
two games today. We got one starting at five o'clock Eastern.

969
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:55,280
We get one starting at eight o'clock Easter. I'm trying

970
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,719
to see if we've got expected pitchers, and we do,

971
00:46:59,039 --> 00:47:02,039
so we're gonna talk Seattle Logan Gilbert taking them ound

972
00:47:02,079 --> 00:47:06,880
against Toronto. Looks yeah, we got a Toronto's at least

973
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:07,880
gonna start with the reliever.

974
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 2: We'll see where they go after that.

975
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,760
Speaker 1: We got Dodgers going with Blake Snell and the Brewers

976
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:14,599
going with Quintana. I'm gonna let you talk about both

977
00:47:14,639 --> 00:47:17,159
these games here at once. So break these two games

978
00:47:17,199 --> 00:47:18,719
for us. How do you see them going down tonight?

979
00:47:20,519 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 7: A little doubleheader action in Major League Baseball for Monday

980
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,920
night here in the baseball playoffs, and it's almost like

981
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,079
the NBA, right, the Mariners and Blue Jays will all

982
00:47:28,079 --> 00:47:30,760
play two games before the Dodgers or the Brewers played

983
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:32,599
their first game tonight, and we see that so often

984
00:47:32,599 --> 00:47:35,480
in the NBA and NHL playoffs as well. It is

985
00:47:35,519 --> 00:47:38,119
Game two the American League Championships. Hereies at five to

986
00:47:38,119 --> 00:47:40,599
three Eastern. It's a Canadian start time, five oh three

987
00:47:40,599 --> 00:47:43,239
Eastern on Thanksgiving. In no way the Blue Jays can

988
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:45,079
lose two in a row at home, and I don't

989
00:47:45,079 --> 00:47:46,760
think they will. I like Toronto in this game, and

990
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:48,320
the money's coming a little bit on the Blue Jays,

991
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,280
pumping this up to a dollar thirty dollars thirty five.

992
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,199
Also like the fact that the pitching match up here

993
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:57,840
I think favors Toronto. They've done well against Gilbert during

994
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,559
their career twenty nine. This current lineup, this current Blue

995
00:48:00,639 --> 00:48:02,920
Jay lineup is twenty nine for a ninety six batting

996
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:06,000
over three hundred career against Gilbert, and while he's been

997
00:48:06,039 --> 00:48:08,519
in good current form, I think this is a step

998
00:48:08,599 --> 00:48:10,599
up in class against the Toronto offense. It's due to

999
00:48:10,599 --> 00:48:13,199
breakout a little bit here. After scoring just one run

1000
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,719
yesterday on just two hits, I look for a better

1001
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,760
offensive effort from the Blue Jays at home and I

1002
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:20,960
don't see them going down to zero in this series.

1003
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,280
And something else I'll point out about this matchup is

1004
00:48:23,559 --> 00:48:26,320
home road dichotomies. Both of these teams are much stronger

1005
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:29,559
at home this season. Blue Jays regular season fifty four

1006
00:48:29,599 --> 00:48:32,880
and twenty seven, forty and forty one on the road. Now,

1007
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,280
obviously the Canadian travel factors into that a bit, a

1008
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:36,760
little more than a dozen in the postseason, but they

1009
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,280
still have a nice home field advantage. And the Mariners

1010
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,000
are even more extreme. Fifty one and thirty at home

1011
00:48:42,039 --> 00:48:44,440
this year, thirty nine and forty two in the road.

1012
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:47,079
And I know Seattle won game won yesterday on Sunday,

1013
00:48:47,519 --> 00:48:49,079
but I look for the Blue Jays to bounce back.

1014
00:48:49,119 --> 00:48:51,880
Home road dichotomies are strong, and it's a bounce back situation.

1015
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,360
After the loss. I like the Toronto Blue Jays is

1016
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,079
a small favorite against Gilbert as the Blue Jays lineup,

1017
00:48:57,079 --> 00:48:59,159
as I mentioned, this hit him well over the years.

1018
00:48:59,159 --> 00:49:01,719
That's at five three Eastern on Fox National TV and

1019
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:04,880
Fox Sports one, and then at eight oh eight the

1020
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,800
Hawaiian area code. Eight oh eight. We've got the True

1021
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,599
TV and TBS game and I'm still trying to get

1022
00:49:10,639 --> 00:49:13,719
on impractical Jokers on True TV. The comments below are helping,

1023
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,079
so keep them coming. On a more serious note, though,

1024
00:49:16,119 --> 00:49:18,000
it looks like Milwaukee has decided on their start and

1025
00:49:18,039 --> 00:49:21,119
we'll see how dep goes. We do know Blake Snell

1026
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,559
is going for the Dodgers, and I like Snell, veteran

1027
00:49:23,599 --> 00:49:27,440
pitcher here having an excellent season two point three five ERA,

1028
00:49:27,519 --> 00:49:29,800
and he's been in excellent current form since the end

1029
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,360
of Augus, last seven starts a two point three four

1030
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,920
ERA and lifetime a Dodger fanned and insider Justin Brisky

1031
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:38,519
told me that the Dodgers are clicking and all cylinder

1032
00:49:38,559 --> 00:49:41,440
lowest ERA in the league in September, and it does

1033
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:43,280
appear that they're rounding in the form here. You know,

1034
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:44,440
this is a team I think it was a two

1035
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,400
to one favorite preseason seven months ago, and you can't

1036
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,039
lay two to month two to one and tie your

1037
00:49:49,079 --> 00:49:51,519
money up for seven eight months, especially with baseball futures.

1038
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:53,800
But they were the powerhouse team coming in, so who

1039
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,840
would have thought both the Phillies and Brewers had better

1040
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,760
records this year in the regular season. Well we see

1041
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,280
that doesn't necessarily mean anything. The Phillies are gone and

1042
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:03,679
now the Brewers remain. And the series price, by the way,

1043
00:50:03,679 --> 00:50:06,039
as the Dodgers is a two to one favorite to

1044
00:50:06,119 --> 00:50:08,679
win this series, so if they're gonna win the series,

1045
00:50:08,679 --> 00:50:10,760
they're most likely gonna win Game one. I like them

1046
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:14,000
a dollar fifty favorite tonight with Snell on the mound.

1047
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:16,639
I like this Milwaukee team regular season, but I think

1048
00:50:16,639 --> 00:50:18,960
the Dodgers are still the best team in baseball and

1049
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,239
this should be a focused spot form and they're in

1050
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,719
pretty good current form as well. Let's look at the

1051
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,039
Dodgers minus a dollar fifty and once in the Blue

1052
00:50:26,079 --> 00:50:28,119
Jays minus a dollar twenty five, a couple of favorites

1053
00:50:28,159 --> 00:50:30,960
tonight in Major League Baseball for Games two and one

1054
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,199
in the National League and American League Championship Series. And

1055
00:50:34,199 --> 00:50:37,639
don't forget if you're liking these freeplay videos, comment below

1056
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:39,840
and thumbs up like. The more thumbs up likes, the

1057
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,360
more videos I do each week, including your weeknight college

1058
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,840
and pro football games. I'm gonna do your Thursday Night

1059
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:46,960
Prime game this week six and one this year on

1060
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,920
the free Thursday Night plays, Sunday Night Monday Night Football

1061
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:51,679
as well, and then of course my top twenty five

1062
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,800
college football video for Saturday and NFL fade the public

1063
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:58,039
video for Sunday. Click subscribe, click the bell for instance alerts,

1064
00:50:58,039 --> 00:51:00,599
thumbs up like and comments below because I do read

1065
00:51:00,639 --> 00:51:02,079
the comments and reply back. And if you want my

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personal best bets, check out some special offers that are

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00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,960
right now. Steve Merrill wager talk dot com and get

1076
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:35,760
there quicker with shortcut WT Dot Buzz slash sm.

1077
00:51:33,599 --> 00:51:35,199
Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Steve Listen.

1078
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:39,039
Speaker 1: I can't believe it, but my colts have one loss,

1079
00:51:39,039 --> 00:51:41,559
their ahead of the division, and my Hoosiers are top

1080
00:51:41,639 --> 00:51:42,880
three team.

1081
00:51:42,559 --> 00:51:44,559
Speaker 2: In the cut. What is going on in the state

1082
00:51:44,599 --> 00:51:45,719
of Indiana with Andy?

1083
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,280
Speaker 7: I thought to you about an hour ago, I was

1084
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,360
reading an article on James Franklin, and by the way,

1085
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,599
when they've lost again, I don't I think I saw

1086
00:51:51,639 --> 00:51:54,519
there the first team in history to lose twice as

1087
00:51:54,559 --> 00:51:57,039
a three touchdown favorite in the same season. I think

1088
00:51:57,039 --> 00:51:59,760
that's what I read. So first thing. Any we talked

1089
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,599
about Franklin like one in nineteen now against top five

1090
00:52:02,639 --> 00:52:04,159
I think Oregon was six at the time, but they

1091
00:52:04,159 --> 00:52:06,760
were getting first place votes when they lost that game

1092
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,679
again this past week in the Northwestern I ride away,

1093
00:52:08,679 --> 00:52:10,159
I was thinking, you got to get rid of Franklin.

1094
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:12,079
I never thought it was gonna happen as fast as

1095
00:52:12,079 --> 00:52:15,039
it did. But they had a top five coaching list,

1096
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,760
Nebraska coach, the UNLV coach, Iowa state coach, but the

1097
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:22,320
second guy listed was Signetti Indiana, which would really shake

1098
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,599
out that conference and he would be my choice. I

1099
00:52:24,639 --> 00:52:26,800
saw what he did locally here James Madison, you've seen

1100
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,360
what he's done at Indiana. I think that's a possibility.

1101
00:52:30,559 --> 00:52:32,280
You hate to see it because as a loyalty thing,

1102
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:33,960
you really feel like you should stay a little longer

1103
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:36,639
since they gave him his first big break. But he's

1104
00:52:36,679 --> 00:52:38,719
done an incredible job at multiple schools.

1105
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 1: Here's Adam is all over the Signetti de Penn State.

1106
00:52:43,519 --> 00:52:46,960
So here's why you wouldn't do this ten years ago.

1107
00:52:47,639 --> 00:52:50,000
You'd take this AYU job. You turn around and then

1108
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:54,400
you go to whatever, right, Okay, So Signetti money's not

1109
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:55,280
going to be a problem.

1110
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 2: IU as deep pockets, Kelly's School of.

1111
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 1: Business, alum all over the place you've now become. Seriously,

1112
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,360
we are all more excited about AU football as a

1113
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:08,119
lums than we are basketball. Our basketball program is falling apart.

1114
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:10,360
So you've got a school that is going to be

1115
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:15,199
forever grateful. You've got deep pockets and with ni l

1116
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,639
what's the guarantee you can get better players by going.

1117
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:21,760
Speaker 7: To somewhere same conference?

1118
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,079
Speaker 1: Now you also have how much more pressure you're going

1119
00:53:25,119 --> 00:53:27,239
to be on at Penn State than you are at IU.

1120
00:53:27,679 --> 00:53:30,079
At IU, you went eight or nine games each year.

1121
00:53:30,119 --> 00:53:33,000
We're going to be happy. Look at Gonzaga, Mark Feuzic

1122
00:53:33,079 --> 00:53:35,480
at Gonzaga. I think that's the guy that's done it right.

1123
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:40,079
So if you're Signetti, I'm not sure what who's who's

1124
00:53:40,119 --> 00:53:41,519
higher in the rankings right now?

1125
00:53:41,599 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 2: Why is it?

1126
00:53:42,079 --> 00:53:44,360
Speaker 1: Why is I Why is Penn State a better job

1127
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,679
than I? You with with nil and everything that's going

1128
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,920
on right now, I don't know. I can make the

1129
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:51,559
case there are a lot better jobs in some of

1130
00:53:51,599 --> 00:53:55,440
these high pressure You're not dealing with Texas boosters, You're

1131
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:58,960
not dealing with Alabama alumni, You're dealing with IU that

1132
00:53:59,039 --> 00:54:02,320
are just e totally grateful for turning your program right.

1133
00:54:02,559 --> 00:54:05,880
I could argue, I you, with what he's done, has

1134
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:08,400
now turned this into a top three program, and he

1135
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:09,239
doesn't have the pressure.

1136
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 2: I could argue, I use a better job than Penn State.

1137
00:54:11,159 --> 00:54:12,199
Speaker 7: I love it. I mean, you know, I'm a big

1138
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,320
quality of life balanced person with sports, betting everything coaching

1139
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:16,760
on the side. So I'm with you on that. I

1140
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,239
think it's vastly underrated. And the other thing I'll point

1141
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:20,440
out too, I wanted to ask you is do you

1142
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:23,400
think Franklin's relieved? I think they still owe forty nine million.

1143
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:25,960
I mean, I said that with the Virginia Tech fire

1144
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:27,280
in a couple of weeks ago, they owe him like

1145
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,440
six seven million. It's like, you gotta do nothing. Now

1146
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:31,199
you get paid. I don't know.

1147
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,039
Speaker 2: I's interesting, he's he's taking care of it.

1148
00:54:33,079 --> 00:54:35,159
Speaker 1: I feel bad for the assistant coaches that you know

1149
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:37,039
aren't true, aren't seeing that they.

1150
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:38,519
Speaker 2: Got to up end families and stuff.

1151
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 5: All.

1152
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,760
Speaker 1: Hey, listen, it sounds like you're trying to convince yourself.

1153
00:54:43,159 --> 00:54:44,039
Facts are facts?

1154
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 2: Do you do you?

1155
00:54:45,119 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 1: I just made the case of what kind of quality

1156
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:51,000
of life? Like, who's got it better than Mark Fughes,

1157
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:54,320
Who's gonna better in college basketball than the Gonzaga head?

1158
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm with you. I think I didn't know the

1159
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:57,920
money was comparable. That was the only thing I thought

1160
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:00,400
would switch him. But I think if they're at that level,

1161
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,639
like you just said, they've got better players. Maybe now

1162
00:55:02,679 --> 00:55:05,760
they're ranked higher. It's like you sold me I'll stay there,

1163
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:07,159
and I'll stay.

1164
00:55:08,159 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, they have no.

1165
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,039
Speaker 6: Four star or five stars, so they don't have better players.

1166
00:55:12,599 --> 00:55:14,199
Speaker 7: Right as I said that, Dan, I knew I missed.

1167
00:55:15,079 --> 00:55:18,840
I realized that you.

1168
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 1: Can get you can get the players. The point is

1169
00:55:20,519 --> 00:55:24,159
you can get the players. You can get the players.

1170
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,119
Speaker 7: I think good. We think basketball guys go to Indiana

1171
00:55:26,159 --> 00:55:28,400
for decades. Even Bobby Knight was throwing chairs at him,

1172
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,119
so it's like, you know, you know he threw I

1173
00:55:30,159 --> 00:55:32,039
do it at the referee once again, I caught myself.

1174
00:55:32,079 --> 00:55:33,920
I know he did throw the player. But yeah, I

1175
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:35,840
don't think like Happy Valley in the middle of nowhere

1176
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:38,719
is necessarily a more desirable like college location than Bloomington.

1177
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 4: So no, I agree.

1178
00:55:40,119 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 6: I think I think the one thing that probably Penn

1179
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,119
State fans will sell themselves on and I'm not a

1180
00:55:44,119 --> 00:55:46,159
Penn State fan, so you know I got but I

1181
00:55:46,159 --> 00:55:49,119
think it's the guy is from Pittsburgh, so I know

1182
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:52,239
they're interesting. There is there is like the oh, you know,

1183
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:54,960
you get to coach the team you grew up rooting for.

1184
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:57,880
I mean there is, there is that emotional All I

1185
00:55:57,920 --> 00:55:59,519
know is if it's Matt Rule.

1186
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 2: I'm so out on Penn State. That's that's all.

1187
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:05,599
Speaker 4: You're just getting James Franklin for less.

1188
00:56:05,679 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 7: James franks He was the top of the article. Dan

1189
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,039
that was the first name of the five they listened

1190
00:56:09,079 --> 00:56:12,199
to that article. He's the odds, which I think would

1191
00:56:12,199 --> 00:56:14,880
be a mistake to the UNLV, he's the odds on

1192
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:15,840
favorite to start.

1193
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,639
Speaker 6: The Athletic Directory is really good friends with him, so

1194
00:56:19,039 --> 00:56:20,840
with him, I think it would be an absolute mistake.

1195
00:56:21,159 --> 00:56:27,800
It's a lateral move if you bring in rule yeah.

1196
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really depends on what kind of personality sting

1197
00:56:28,039 --> 00:56:30,199
that he has. If he loves jumping from school to

1198
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:33,280
school and building up, if that's his jam, then yeah

1199
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:36,039
he's going to jump from you. But if he's like, hey,

1200
00:56:36,039 --> 00:56:38,599
I found the perfect spot, the perfect job that I'll stay.

1201
00:56:38,679 --> 00:56:40,159
Speaker 7: I know for me Andy too, my first sow is

1202
00:56:40,159 --> 00:56:41,920
it's kind of a loyalty thing. I know that has

1203
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,360
no way in nowadays, but like they gave him his

1204
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,119
first big FBS job, Like I don't know for me

1205
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:48,840
that would weigh in, but I know it's a different

1206
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:52,039
level for these guys. So you see what happens place

1207
00:56:52,079 --> 00:56:54,079
your bets. I'm sure. I'm sure Dave Mason give you

1208
00:56:54,119 --> 00:56:54,639
some odds on that.

1209
00:56:54,679 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 1: This week I heard I heard your buyout from wager

1210
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,679
Talks not quite as big as James Franklin.

1211
00:57:01,199 --> 00:57:03,159
Speaker 7: I'll tell you right now, I could live with a

1212
00:57:03,199 --> 00:57:05,760
forty nine million dollars buyout and not have to handicap anymore.

1213
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:07,400
But I would miss doing the shows. Actually, I really

1214
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:10,199
enjoyed doing the shows with you in the videos. But yeah,

1215
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:14,039
I know there's worse situations than having a crap season

1216
00:57:14,599 --> 00:57:16,679
being told you like one in nineteen now in big

1217
00:57:16,679 --> 00:57:20,280
games your lifetime, including losing to Notre Dame not noted.

1218
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:22,079
Yeah they lost too. Yeah they lost in Notre Dame

1219
00:57:22,119 --> 00:57:23,719
and Indiana did as well last year. Right did they

1220
00:57:23,719 --> 00:57:24,119
both lost?

1221
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:24,599
Speaker 3: Oh?

1222
00:57:24,639 --> 00:57:26,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, Indiana got killed by noticed they both lost a

1223
00:57:26,639 --> 00:57:27,480
Notre Dame in the playoffs?

1224
00:57:27,519 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 7: Right, isn't that ironic? So that's an inter coincidence?

1225
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,719
Speaker 1: All right, Steve Merrill, everyone, thank you so much. Thanks Monday,

1226
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:36,159
thanks for joining us. All Right, we're gonna do all

1227
00:57:36,199 --> 00:57:38,519
around the world real quick. We've got a Monday Night

1228
00:57:38,519 --> 00:57:41,000
Football best bet. This is my favorite prop of the week.

1229
00:57:41,039 --> 00:57:44,079
We put all of our props in before Thursday Night Football.

1230
00:57:44,199 --> 00:57:46,639
This was my favorite. I've done something kind of special.

1231
00:57:46,679 --> 00:57:49,519
I included two NHL props for tonight. I want you

1232
00:57:49,559 --> 00:57:51,239
guys to get a look of what we do with

1233
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:54,280
NHL props. This is these are This is a daily

1234
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:57,440
sport where you could build your bank roll really really confidently.

1235
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:00,320
We hit over sixty percent of our props last year

1236
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:03,599
in NHL, so I've attached those to the Monday Night play.

1237
00:58:03,639 --> 00:58:05,440
We just have one NFL prop, but I threw in

1238
00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:07,159
two NHL plays. I want you to see our write

1239
00:58:07,199 --> 00:58:10,000
ups and kind of how we operate with NHL props.

1240
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:13,000
It's a great source to a way to build the bankroll.

1241
00:58:13,079 --> 00:58:16,199
So two props from NHL one in Monday Night Football.

1242
00:58:16,239 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 2: So grab that. We're on a twelve and six NFL run.

1243
00:58:19,079 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, primetime games have been great seven to

1244
00:58:21,559 --> 00:58:24,119
one this season in primetime games. I don't know why

1245
00:58:24,159 --> 00:58:26,480
we've been seeing primetime so well, but it's worked. So

1246
00:58:26,599 --> 00:58:29,039
you can get their WT dot buzs, slash al and

1247
00:58:29,079 --> 00:58:31,360
we got a couple free picks on that page as well.

1248
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:33,400
All right, let's do free picks from all around the

1249
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:36,960
world and then we're done on this Monday. Let's go

1250
00:58:37,039 --> 00:58:40,280
Bill's Falcons. Let's go Josh Palmer over eighteen and a

1251
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:43,000
half receiving He's gone way over this total in four

1252
00:58:43,079 --> 00:58:45,360
out of five games. In fact, the four games that

1253
00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:48,960
he's gone over, he's at twenty five plus receiving yards.

1254
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 2: Dalton Kincaid is banged up.

1255
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a pretty close game,

1256
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:54,719
and I think there's going to be a need for

1257
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,800
both teams to pass ball through the air.

1258
00:58:56,840 --> 00:59:00,519
Speaker 2: So Josh Palmer over his receiving. We go to Dodgers

1259
00:59:00,519 --> 00:59:00,960
and Brewers.

1260
00:59:01,079 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 1: These these outs over props have been really good that

1261
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:05,440
I've been giving out on this show. So we'll go

1262
00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:08,119
to Blake Snell over seventeen and a half outs. He's

1263
00:59:08,159 --> 00:59:10,280
gone over in five straight games. He hasn't pitched in

1264
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,360
a week, he's well rested. We know this Dodgers' bullpen

1265
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:15,280
is a liability. If he's pitching good in the game

1266
00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:17,480
as close, they are gonna leave him in. So let's

1267
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:19,679
take a look at Blake Snell over this total, and

1268
00:59:19,719 --> 00:59:24,039
then Bill's commanders DeAndre Swift or not Bill's commanders, they're

1269
00:59:24,039 --> 00:59:27,480
supposed to say, Bears commanders, My bad, that was me

1270
00:59:27,559 --> 00:59:31,119
on the graphics. Bears commanders DeAndre Swift over two and

1271
00:59:31,159 --> 00:59:33,440
a half receptions. He's gone over every game this season.

1272
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:38,199
Commanders give up four receptions per game to running backs.

1273
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:41,760
So the Bears commanders there, DeAndre Swift over two and

1274
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:45,360
a half receptions. Thanks to Gianni, Thanks to Bill, thanks

1275
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:47,199
to Steve, great show, and thank you all.

1276
00:59:47,239 --> 00:59:48,920
Speaker 2: In the chat, make sure you hit the like button.

1277
00:59:49,119 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: Make sure you leave a comment below tell us what

1278
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:54,039
your best bet is today. We got hockey that's already started,

1279
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:56,760
We've got hockey all day, We've even got a CFL

1280
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:58,159
game that's getting ready to kick off, and we got

1281
00:59:58,159 --> 01:00:01,199
two Monday night football games. There's plenty of bets to

1282
01:00:01,239 --> 01:00:04,159
take advantage of, so go check out wager talk dot

1283
01:00:04,199 --> 01:00:06,719
com five dollars. Tuesday is tomorrow. We'll get you ready

1284
01:00:06,719 --> 01:00:08,960
for a big Tuesday. Good luck on your bets today.

1285
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:10,000
We'll see you tomorrow. Take care