Speaker 1: I love Welcome to Way You Talk Today, the gold
standard of sports betting shows, where he talked the talk
and walk the walk five dollars Tuesday, we get NBA,
got college basketball, We got Naddy Natty Championship to go over.
Dan's taking a break from packing. How is first off?
How is it going?
Speaker 2: Is it? Are you?
Speaker 1: Have you lost your mind yet packing up for the
big move?
Speaker 2: Well, Andy, we are now at the stage of the
move that I have to hold a microphone.
Speaker 3: So if you're wondering at what point, at what point
we're at? All the gear is packed up, We're two
days away from shipping out. So yes, it's it's skeleton crew.
I mean, you know my studio is usually looking beautiful.
There's nothing here, nothing on the walls. Everything is absconded
into the moving boxes.
Speaker 2: Andy.
Speaker 3: So we're feeling good though, I will say, and it's
we're excited, dude. We got a Tuesday show with two
great guests coming your way here.
Speaker 2: So if there's anything that can.
Speaker 3: Get my mind off the hell that is a cross
country move, it is hanging out with Jesse Schule and
Ralph Michaels. Jesse Schule has a bet in the NBA
game that just keeps on given, and that is the
Spurs and Thunder. We get another mark in this chapter
that's been one of the best matchups of this entire year.
And then of course you know he's gonna come on
and say, here's a team that I'm fading. In college football,
there's only two teams to choose from Andy, So we'll
find out what is the fade for him. Is he
going head to head with Andy's.
Speaker 2: Who who Hoosiers?
Speaker 3: Or or is he riding with him and the SIGs.
Ralph Michael's gonna shut things down for us today. He's
talking Virginia, Louisville, Iowa State, and Kansas and he might
even just be giving you a free client play here
on the show. So more reasons than ever to hit
that like button and make sure you are subscribed. We
are Andy forty subscribers away from two hundred and forty thousand.
Speaker 2: That's a big goal for us.
Speaker 3: We obviously want the quarter of the million, but to
get there first, we got to hit this two hundred
and forty thousand. So if you're watching, folks and you
haven't hit that subscribe button, we would greatly appreciate it.
And he's got all around the world. Some free plays
coming your way. I have a free play for you
in the Bundesliga. I know everyone's waiting for that, Andy,
So plenty of action come in your way. Hit that
like button and subscribe. As we head on the Tuesday
addition to wager Talk today.
Speaker 1: Goose wants to know will we have a golf show?
I wish I had a golf mug as I drink
out of my golf mug. Yes, of course we're gonna
have a golf show. We're actually recording right after this
show and bringing the Feds for the Rogers rushing proper. Yes,
did you see yesterday.
Speaker 3: That play when he was rolling out to his right,
had nothing but green grass in front of him, and
what does he do instead? He fires an absolute piss
missile that nobody had the chance of catching.
Speaker 2: So, yes, as we.
Speaker 3: Were joking about bringing in, yeah, bringing in the Feds
yesterday on the show.
Speaker 2: Yeah, brutal, But that was the whole night for Rogers.
I mean that that was the entire.
Speaker 3: Night for Rogers. So it should be be surprised. Andy,
all we needed was a half. He cashed it in
twenty of his twenty one playoffs starts. Now he's cashed
it in twenty of his twenty two playoff starts and
probably won't see any more from him.
Speaker 1: In his defense, he basically had a defensive lineman on
him the second he they hiked the ball. I mean
that was we thought.
Speaker 2: The PA defense is no joke, man.
Speaker 1: Yeah, once they figured out they could get to him
with only four rushers, that can get him over. Now
C J. Stroud did did his best to keep them
in the game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, here, you can have it.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, had more fumbles than completions to start the game
and still they pull a Philadelphia Eagles and then go
only muster up three points off of all of those turnovers.
Speaker 2: So yeah, not gonna win games doing that. Andy.
Speaker 1: Let's bring on Jesse. Jesse's got a couple of monster
games to talk about. I'm interested in them both. Let's start.
Let's start with the Naddy. Let's start with the big
boy here, Jesse, we gotta break down.
Speaker 4: I want to get right down to the nitty gritty.
Speaker 1: Do you you got two every week you've come on,
Like in the regular season, you have like eight hundred
teams to pick a couple to fade. It's just slowly
get But you got a fifty to fifty chance here
to go against my Hoosias. It's a team to fade.
So you only got two teams, you got to pick
one to fade. Who is the fade?
Speaker 4: Okay, Andy, Well, I'm not gonna tell you anything that
you don't know already. Indiana is the best team in
the country. I've been riding them all the way to
the Natty, and yeah, I don't take anything away from
this Indiana team, but I just think this line is
on the wrong side of seven. There's some recency bias
at play. We saw them put up a fifty burger
on Oregon and they blew out Alabama thirty eight to three.
Very impressive, but I think that's taken away from what
we've seen from this team during the season. At the
end of the day, they got a twenty to fifteen
win at Iowa. That game was thirteen to three inside
two minutes to play, or sorry, thirteen thirteen tie inside
two minutes to play. They got a twenty seven twenty
four win at Penn State. They were trailing by four
points with thirty six left on the thirty six seconds
left on the clock. They got a thirteen to ten
win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game.
They were trailing at halftime in that game, and you
got to ask yourself, is this Miami team more like
Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa? Or are they more
like Alabama and Oregon? And I think deep down we
all know the answer. At the end of the day,
there's been ten There will be ten games between the
last time these teams played and the Natty, And during
those ten days, the Hoosers are going to hear about
how they're the favorite. Some people are actually saying they're
the greatest college football team of all time. Clay Travis
did a show this morning claiming that Indiana might be
the best team of all time RG three Adam Schefter,
A lot of the pundits are saying similar things, and
that is rat poison for these players. You know, I
see some disturbing things in the body language. Even Kurt Signetti,
who is normally quite stoic and stand offish with the media,
he appears to be laid back with his feed up,
ready to smoke a cigar. I think a lot of
these players, and perhaps even some of the coaching staff,
feel like it's they're so close to mission accomplished, and
like I say, that's a really dangerous place to be,
especially with ten days to soak that all in. Nick
Saban has said that that kind of good press for
your team is rat poison, And when you look at
this Miami team, I want to bring you back to
October eighteenth. Miami was ranked number two in the country.
They were getting ready to play Louisville and I came
on this YouTube channel and I gave out a play
on Louisville on the money line. Miami was a double
digit favorite. And what did I say. They're coming off
a buye. That's two weeks to soak up that rat poison.
And what happened. Louisville ended up beating them. One of
only just two losses for Miami. Miami lost in overtime
at SMU by six points, and they lost that game
to Louisville by three points. Miami hasn't lost any games
by eight and a half points. Do I think Indiana
is the better team? I do, but I don't think
this is a game that Miami can't win, and I
think it's too many points. I think the best bet
sidewise for spread would be plus five and a half
on Miami for the first half, which is something I'd
be interested in talking to you about. Andy. But as
far as the absolute best value for this game, I
think just straight up money line Miami. If this game
is a low scoring game, if there's some turnovers, if
Miami can get to the quarterback, this is a game
that they can win. And if you're gonna get three
to one on Miami, I think that's a better bet
than laying eight and a half, a line that I
think has been influenced by recency bias. So I think
the value is with Miami, despite the fact that I
can see that Indiana is the better team.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the like, this is the easiest
care to make things interesting since we started this segment.
I mean, I mean this is this was Taylor Mane
and I appreciate I appreciate you doing this, Jesse. I
mean you basically teed it up. All right, let's give
away three day past. Dan, explain how it works, because yes, Jesse,
I will take my Hoosiers and you and I will
go head to head. How's this work?
Speaker 2: Dan? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Well, and honestly, the people who are tailing Jesse might
just be getting the worst of this number because it
seems like it's only climbing up higher for Indiana.
Speaker 2: But we'll grade it as it sits here on Tuesday,
and that is eight and a half.
Speaker 3: So folks, if you think a dog is barking here
and Miami can cover that eight and a half, comment
below Jesse with your wager talk user name. If you
think I you is the right side and they're winning
going away and continuing this, uh this true fairy tale
run that they've been on with signetti. Comment below and
Andy and your wager talk user name. Whichever side covers
If you're on that right side, free three day flex pass.
It's that easy comment Andy, comment Jesse wager talk user
name with whoever you think is covering, and that's how
you win.
Speaker 2: I'm excited. I like Jeff Jesse smile because get me a.
Speaker 5: Little bit nervous.
Speaker 2: Are you? Are you guys reading jes smile?
Speaker 1: Are you? Jack does not like uh well.
Speaker 4: A couple of weeks ago, when I picked Miami over
Ohio State, I said, I haven't been drinking. Apparently they
think I'm on something a lot stronger than alcohol.
Speaker 5: But I should mention to the chat.
Speaker 4: I'm thirteen and two combined in the NFL and college
football playoffs. Swept the board with the wild card plays
six and oh with the opening round of the NFL playoffs.
So you know, whatever I'm on, it's working.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 1: I'm trying not to jump through the screen and scream
at Jesse all the things that my fandom.
Speaker 3: Fantom Titans noticing the Eagles gear. Yeah, this one might
get left in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: So this is on the fence.
Speaker 3: If it's gonna make it into the into the gearbox,
we'll see.
Speaker 1: I think my favorite line from Jesse is recency bias. Yes,
we've been kicking the ship out of everyone recently. Yes, yes, yes,
that is recency biased. Yes we are biased because you've
been killing him.
Speaker 4: But to be fair, if they didn't put a fifty
burger on Oregon, if they beat Oregon inside seven points,
what would this line be. It wouldn't be eight and
a half.
Speaker 1: But they did put fifty, you know, but they did
have a pick.
Speaker 2: But they did week you can't judge.
Speaker 3: Here's what I'll say, as an innocent bystander without a
horse in the fight a National championship game, having somebody
north of a touchdown.
Speaker 2: That's tough. I mean, you know me, I like my
dogs handy.
Speaker 3: I mean this this game, with what Miami has shown short,
does the offense have the horses to hang with this
Indiana team?
Speaker 2: That's the question.
Speaker 3: Can Carson Beck, you know, turn this now in a
team that can go up and down the field on
a defense.
Speaker 2: Who is on that same level as Miami. That's the
question here.
Speaker 3: I just feel like when you're making a line, both
of these teams have a shot and winning the Natty.
Both of these teams have exceeded preseason expectations that are
sitting here in the National Championship Game eight and a
half feels crazy to me.
Speaker 4: I think the chats proving my point. You see all
the comments in the chat. I'm picking one side of
a game ats that should be fifty to fifty, and
the chat's calling me a you know, they're saying some
pretty rich things about me. And when you see that
one sided action one side, I believe people bet in
one team like it's free money. That's a very very
dangerous situation. And in those cases, I don't think you
want to be laid to the party betting into an
inflated line and that's what So I'm not gonna be
shocked if Indiana wins and puts up a fifty burger
this time. But I still don't think the value is
in taking Indiana minus those points in this game.
Speaker 1: And you also got to remember this is a line
where the books are trying to get at least close
to equal money on both sides. And see what we
see with the chat is saying everyone's betting Indiana. So
the books are just gonna be moving this number just
to try. I don't know if it's I mean, it's
not necessarily the book saying here's what we think this
game is. They're saying this is what we think people
are going to be betting. And how set a line
to get this number on there? And I also got
to say this to the chat, Jesse has done really well.
This is a tough segment to come on and pick.
Speaker 2: You have two guys.
Speaker 1: He has two teams. Last fad he's got two.
Speaker 3: So h it's gonna come down to I feel like
you'll know early on in this game, like if Miami
ain't covering early, I don't think they're going to be
covering late.
Speaker 5: I think And is.
Speaker 4: First half five and a half, first half. That's that's
the bet that I put out there.
Speaker 2: That's what we're going.
Speaker 4: That's what you gotta fade and five and a half
for the first half.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, first half game?
Speaker 3: Yeah and half, first half, five and a half, first
half will be the official I don't have my bell, Andy,
that that too has been Okay, five and a half done.
Speaker 2: First half comment below, Jesse.
Speaker 3: If you think Miami can keep it close here in
the first half five and a half, comment below, Andy
if you think, uh, well, Jesse, Jess, I mean, we
know what.
Speaker 2: They're they're they're they're commenting there. Also, you know.
Speaker 1: Dan doesn't have a horse in the fight, dde. It's
dog in the fight.
Speaker 3: But well, either way, horses fight to Andy, you ever
see the stable stable gets a little crazy, you're gonna
horse in the race, dog in the fight. All I
know is my entire life is in a box.
Speaker 2: Andy. That's yeah, that's all I got for you.
Speaker 1: You get a horse that goes crazy and then you say,
well that that horse is not stable. Move on, we
move on. We move on to the Spurs and the thunder. Jesse.
When the Spurs beat the Thunder for the first time.
It kind of felt like that was when the Thunder
really started their letdown, and San Antonio is not took
their foot off the gas when they play him. This
is a series that's been dominated by the Spurs. Yet
the Thunder or minus eight with an over under of
two thirty. What's your breakdown of this game? Because this
is a line that stunned me when I first saw it.
Speaker 4: Well, I think a lot of people are thinking along
the lines. Yeah, the Spurs have owned Oklahoma City. This
is the narrative. The Spurs have owned Oklahoma City this season,
and everybody sees this triple revenge spot. They've lost three
straight to this team. They're at home, they don't lose
at home, and that's the narrative that people are going
to go with. I hate to disappoint everybody, but I
think the value is as I often say, the value
is not on the side in this game. I'm going
to take a look at an alternative bet rather than
picking the side. I hate to disappoint you guys, but yeah,
San Antonio twenty seven and thirteen, twenty two, seventeen and
one against the spread. They've got almost as many road
wins as they do home wins. They're coming off a
one oh four to oneh three loss at Minnesota that
makes it five straight games they've gone under the total.
They've actually failed to reach the total in nine of
their last ten games overall, and they're not just missing
that total by a little bit, they're missing it by
a lot. This team ranks seventh in the NBA and
opponent scoring, allowing one hundred and twelve point six points
per game. They've been playing very good defensively of late.
As I said, they've owned the season in series with
Oklahoma City. Two of those three games went under the total.
And the Spurs, they pay, play at a pretty slow pace.
They rank eighteenth in the NBA, averaging one hundred and
three point six possessions per game. The Thunder, on the
other hand, they're you know, they've struggled against the Spurs,
but the Spurs represent roughly half of their losses. They're
thirty three and seven overall. They don't have a winning
record against the spread nineteen and twenty one against the
spread nineteen and two at home, so they don't lose
at home very often. You would expect this in this
triple revenge spot to be a huge focus spot for
the Thunder, and we've seen it before. The Thunder could
really crank it up defensively. You see often they hold
teams to well below fifty points in the first half.
They you know, seventy five to forty or something in
the first half. They really they can really put the
clamps on defensively if they want to. The total sits
at two thirty and a half last I checked. That
was the best number available if you're looking at the
under in a game between the number one team and
the number two team in the West, with the Spurs
five and a half games back. You got the revenge
factor and the fact that the last four meetings between
these two teams in Oklahoma City have gone under the total,
and the fact that Oklahoma City also plays at a
relatively slow pace, averaging one hundred and eight sorry not
one hundred and eight, but they rank fifteenth in the
NBA and possessions per game, so neither team plays at
a fast pace. Both teams very good defensively on. Oklahoma
City is the number one defense in the NBA, allowing
just one hundred and eight point four points per game.
So yeah, two thirty seems like a total that might
be appropriate if you take away the revenge factor. But
given the revenge factor, I think both teams come to
play on defense in this game. We'll go under that
two thirty.
Speaker 1: It's a solid take on that game. This is this
is one I will absolutely make time to watch. These
games have been really, really entertaining, so great game to watch.
Jesse's looking at the under in that game. Jesse, it's
five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up for everyone?
Speaker 4: I do have college basketball four percent play tonight, and
I do have football up for the weekend already. As
I said, I was six and oh with wild card
plays this week, So now I'm thirteen and two with
my football playoff plays college and pros. So still hot.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll give away what can we do if
Jesse sweeps the playoffs? Dan to like, if you want
to work up something special, Yeah, we'll have workus if
Jesse can sweep all the way through the Super Bowl. Jesse,
And but you have to put up pressure. You can't
just say I'm not putting up anymore plays and take
the sixth and oh. So that's very impressive, Jesse. Six
and oh was really really good.
Speaker 4: I like the idea that you even think it's possible
that I can sweep the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we get less and less games each week, mo,
I know we got a few.
Speaker 4: I don't think I've ever seen a handicapper sweep the
playoffs before. I don't think I can't say that. Have
you guys ever heard of it being done? Like twenty
five and oh for.
Speaker 1: The mills, Like you have to remember double digits, like
if you if you just pick the couple, but if
you if you get to ten and oh, that's legendary status.
Legendary status in my opinion. So all right, Jesse's got
college Basketball's got NFL up already, So great job on
that on that weekend, Jesse, and good luck this week
and we will reconvene. Oh, you're gonna be on Tuesday Show.
He's gonna be on Tuesday Show next week's we get.
Speaker 2: The Oh, it will be a nice recap, it will
be a nice.
Speaker 1: Just be prepared. I will not be one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no matter what, No matter what I'll be I'll
be doing the heavy lifting for you.
Speaker 2: Don't worry.
Speaker 1: I got yours the same, Dan, You're gonna have to
do the intros, the outros, the end.
Speaker 3: I gotcha, yeah, the mid tros, the entros.
Speaker 2: I got you, I got oh.
Speaker 1: All right, So we gotta do the WTFLFG real quick
because it starts in ten minutes. So this is for
all of you live viewers. Yes, let's get best.
Speaker 2: So we'll keep it.
Speaker 3: We'll keep it, We'll keep it nice and short. As
it is going in just a few minutes. I'll tell
you what the play is at the top, so if
you want to tail it or fade it, you can
go and do it now.
Speaker 2: But I'm taking.
Speaker 3: Both teams to score in the first half of the
Germany Bundesliga game coming up at twelve thirty. That's Stutgart
versus Eintrack Frankfurt and this took. This could even be
a live sweat andy as it's going at twelve thirty
and we're playing the first half play. Here's the thought
for me is the game total two and a half
over is minus two thirty five. Both teams to score
in the game is minus two fifteen. These are two
teams that are both top and top ten on the
table goals scored, top five in goals four as a
matter of fact, and Frankfurt is the team was really
allowed the most goals. They're top three in goals allowed. However,
this Frankfurt offense is better on the road than they
are at home. They've been road warriors all year long.
They actually average over a goal and a half scored
in the first half. So we're taking a little plus
money shot plus one ninety first half both teams to
score Stutgart versus iintrack Frankfurt. It's going in nine minutes, folks,
So if you want to fade or follow, do it now.
That's your wtfor lfg Andy.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, plus one ninety kept me in. It starts
your ruin of it. Like if we can draw a segment,
maybe we hit it before the show's over.
Speaker 2: That would be lovely. That would be lovely. That sounds
good to me, Andy, That's what I mean.
Speaker 3: I've been so bad in American football that I was like,
screw it. We're going to European football and let's see
if we can do a little bit that her over there.
Speaker 2: So a little action for you here in the afternoon.
Speaker 1: That's great. I've been awful of American football, so we'll
try the Bundesliga out.
Speaker 2: Next up, is Belarusian handball Andy.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, hey, if you can find an edge,
I'm all ears man, I know that. I I once
I paid a guy for like six months, like like
two hundred and fifty dollars a month just for Russian
table tennis. Oh, it was a cash it was a
cash cow. We got all our accounts, we got all
our accounts limited, so we had to That's.
Speaker 2: What I mean. Yeah, I know that.
Speaker 3: Whenever whenever the odds makers, the bookies they see you
crushing them in Russian table tennis, they're.
Speaker 2: Like, ah, probably don't want this guy to bet bet
with me.
Speaker 1: Was short lived, but what an amazing six months. I mean,
it was like taking a pay cut when he was like, sorry,
I can't do.
Speaker 2: These Andy these anymore.
Speaker 3: NBA in recent memory, for you might as well be
rushing table tennis because it's ten and five over the
last ten days for you, four straight in NBA. You
mentioned to our man Jesse there five dollars Tuesday. With
that hot of an NBA record, you got to be
going with a five dollars play for yourself.
Speaker 2: Is it an NBA I'm guessing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a four percent NBA play. We hit. Full disclosure,
we lost our NFL play last night. To be honest,
it really wasn't that close. We had Pat Fryer muth
over his receiving and it was pretty obvious from the
beginning that Rogers was just gonna have no time to throw.
So apologize for that one. But we did hit an
NBA play last night. So NBA has been running really good,
four in a row ten and five the last ten days,
so twenty twenty six off to a really good start.
In NBA. We're up fifteen units overall, so it's a
player prop every Tuesday. My five dollars play is a
player prop. And I was so glad to get this number.
I didn't think I was going to get this number.
I knew who I wanted, I knew what category, and
I knew what number I wanted. And lo and behold,
the gambling gods were looking down upon us and we
got the play that we wanted. So it's only five
bucks over at wager talk and again, get as many
five dollars plays as you're comfortable with. Get Jesse's, get Ralphs,
who's coming up, Get anybuddies, but make sure you bet responsibly.
Don't have a ton of your bank roll on one Tuesday.
But it's a great way to try out a plethora
of handicappers. You can get sides totals, myself, props a
lot of good stuff there at wager Talk. So let's
bring in Ralph. Let's bringing Ralph and his good friend
the pen.
Speaker 2: Ah, yes, we need the pen.
Speaker 3: You're muted, Ralph, but we need the pen and the
and the voice is in.
Speaker 6: You know, before you were traveling, you as the hope,
you as the producer, used to unmute me, So now
we have to do that ourselves.
Speaker 5: Gee many crickets, Are you getting little.
Speaker 2: Production value at an all time low? Exactly?
Speaker 6: I feel like one of those guys in a game
show that come on at the end. These are these
corrections and additions from earlier in the show.
Speaker 1: So hit it.
Speaker 6: I went to the data base where you guys were talking.
Shout out to Andrew McGinnis. He went nine to zero
in the NFL playoffs last year. He's the only one
in the last few years that had at least nine
wins but no losses. So I did check that. And
and Dan, you know people talk about Jesse smoking. Maybe
I should say, are you smoking or are you drinking?
You said a playoff college football playoff game with a
line north of seven seems crazy. Well, let me tell you.
In the last five years, Ohio State late eight and
a half to Notre Dame last year won by eleven.
Speaker 5: Georgia late thirteen and a half to.
Speaker 6: TCU, won sixty five to seven, Bama late nine and
a half to Ohio State, and won fifty two to
twenty four. So not only have there been three in
the last five years, they all covered easily.
Speaker 3: Wow, sweat is that is Penn from the top rope there, Andy,
you gotta love it.
Speaker 1: That was good. He's the best in the business for
a reason. Folks, Ralph, we got to yeah, we got
we're gonna go for some college basketball. You're gonna be
our college basketball guru. And then uh uh Pres is
But what a surprise. Pres is not joining us, Shocked
to the surprise of no one.
Speaker 3: Is telling us that he's not gonna be on the
show twenty four hours before the show.
Speaker 2: I'm so shocked. This is this is this is flooring stuff.
Speaker 1: Uh So we're gonna talk a little NFL get you
guys some props and some information. But let's let's go
to college basketball. We got a really good doubleheader. We
have Virginia Louisville, Hiowa State, Kansas. We'll start with Virginia Louisville.
And this is a client play for you.
Speaker 6: I believe it is, And to be honest with you,
this was close to being a five percent play. You know, again,
people need to realize people get too enamored with five percent.
Remember we suggest betting a half a unit per unit.
So if three percent play is one and a half units,
a four percent play is two and a half. A
five percent is two and a half. So don't get
too enamored with five percent or four percent. Make sure
you keep him consistent. But I look at this game
and it shows value all the way around. We have
a team in Louisville that is very fast paced. On
the season, they're number fifty two and on offense they're
number fourteen. But there are many times when teams are
playing their non conference schedule that they up the MPO,
that they that they try new lineups, that they run
and gun. When you get into conference play, they truly
slow down the tempo, which has happened for the Cardinals. Also,
let's mention this Louisville is the number one highest three
point shooting team in the country. Fifty four point one
percent of every shot they take is from three. The
issue with that is their top score and number one
three point shooter Ryan Conwell, averaging twenty points per game.
Speaker 5: He missed last game and he's.
Speaker 6: Questionable this time. Their number two scorer mckel Brown. Remember
we talked about mcel brown last week. I said Duke's
the only way I can play versus Louisville last Tuesday
because mdel Brown was still out. Well, guess what, He's
now missed six straight games and he is still doubtful.
Louisville again up Temple. But even with that up tempo,
they're one in five over under their last six games,
and the only game that went over is an anomaly.
They traveled to the Cal Bears and this was game
post Christmas break, so the teams had eight and nine
days off. You don't quite have that same defensive intensity
with a long layoff. With a total of under one
sixty two, Louisville has also won in six over under
that over again versus Cal.
Speaker 5: We look at Virginia.
Speaker 6: Yes, they are still one of the slowest paced teams.
Their defense stops people from pressing the pace. Their defense
is number three hundred and fifty two as far as
tempo is concerned. I mentioned louisvill shoots the most three
pointers in the country.
Speaker 5: Guess what.
Speaker 6: Virginia's pack defense elite number eleven in three point defenses.
Louisvo's only faced one top twenty five three point defense
this season. They only scored sixty two points in that game.
Speaker 5: The Calves.
Speaker 6: I mentioned defense intensity. When you get into your rhythm,
you play better defense. Well, when the Calves have at
least four days off, they're four to one over under.
They don't have the same defense of intensity. But when
they're playing with traditional one to two or three days
of rest, they're two to seven over under with the
only game only two games going under as a huge
twenty five point favorite and one in neutral game early
in December under one fifty four. This is a four
percent client release. And again this was close to actually
being a five percent client play for me on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: Like it. Like it. It's a compelling case defense, low numbers.
It's a really good breakdown, Ralph.
Speaker 5: You know what, Andy, let me mention one more thing.
Speaker 6: Well, it's important you know, when we're talking about games today,
it's also important to pay attention to what people are saying.
This Louisville team is twelve and four. Yeah, they lost
to Stanford, they lost to Duke. Remember they played seven
games without their top two scores. And they also just
got another player eligible who played three years in the
D League. He is eligible tonight for the first time.
This Louisville team is a team to keep an eye
on next week or in the next few games when
all these pieces are back in the fold again. I
have this game circle for the cards, and I have
to keep a notebook and a calendar, and I start looking,
start looking to see if Louiso's a play on team.
You may be wrong, but always shot those notes down
and make sure you're paying attention to that.
Speaker 1: That's really good stuff. Yeah, we look through these teams
and I do this in the player props market. Can
we get a team that's getting ready to go on
a run like three games in a row and see
if we can snipe those numbers before the books catch
up to them. So keep an eye on that team.
So all right, Ralph, we move on to the next game.
We're going to talk Iowa State and Kansas Iowa State
small favor here minus three and a half over under
one fifty one and a half. What do you think
about this game?
Speaker 6: Well, what quasi world do we leave in that Kansas
is a home dog? Well, guess what they are this year.
You look at Kansas, they have played a tough schedule,
how tough number two in the country. Yes, they're eleven
and five. All the losses aren't horrible. At North Carolina
versus Duke home to Yukon, they were a home dog
once this year they lost and failed to cover. They
went to UCF and lost, and they went to West
Virginia and lost this past Saturday. It is concerning though
that Kansas just does not have that same continuity. They
led West Virginia by eight points in the second half
and they got outscored by thirty points to lose that
game by eleven. Those type of things are concerning the
Kansas offense about fifty. The defense is still top twenty one.
Thing they do not do they get no defensive pressure.
There are three hundred and sixty six teams in college basketball.
They are number three hundred and forty six as far
as forcing turnovers on defense in Iowa State. We have
a balanced, deep team, we have senior guards. We have
a team that is number forty seven in offensive turnovers.
They don't turn the ball over often. On defense, they're elite.
They're number three. They've caused twenty four point five turnovers
per game.
Speaker 5: And when we get to this point in time, it
is rare.
Speaker 6: It is very rare to say you actually have value
on a sixteen and team. But with Kansas being a
home dog and Iowa State being only two and five
against the spread, I actually think this line should be
closer to six or six and a half. I think
there is actually value on an Iowa State as the
way favorite. You know, and when I look at those
seven games that they're two and five against the spread,
all five atis losses were as a double digit favorite,
and the average line was minus twenty five points per game.
To me, that is perfect. That's exactly what you want
to see. You don't want to waste your energy as
a double digit favorite with a double digit lead, and
you're starting to work in some extra guys. When the
games are meaningful, like the two they covered in his
last five, you bear down and you play well. The
only negative I have for Iowa State in this game
is they are a very poor free throw shooting team.
They shoot under seventy percent. That's about two hundred and
eighty in the country. And when you're on the road
in this type of close game, I like Iowa State
a lot. It is a free play, but the free
throw shooting in this type of game with a close
line playing at Hilton does keep me off it being
a client release. Again, there's times to be selective. I'd
much rather leave a loser off than put a winner on.
You leave those two games off, you go fifty to
fifty or saving yourself ten percent.
Speaker 1: Use I've see where you're going with that, Ralph. Yeah,
it's it's it's a good breakdown. Once again, what was
the reasons why it didn't quite make the make the It.
Speaker 6: Really is just the free throw shooting. They are that
bad shooting free throws. So you know, again you're laying
three and a half on the road to Kansas, where
you've been a dog for forty five straight years, you
know what I mean. So it is tough that if
you have a four or five point lead, then they
start following and you know they're still going to be
crazy in Lawrence, Texas. Missing a few free throws can
completely change the dynamics of a game. If this were
if this were picker one, I'd be okay using them
at three and a half or four. The free throw,
the negative free throw shooting is a major factor.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, it's five dollars Tuesday. You already
gave out for your five dollars play Ralph, So what
else do you have up? And then let's talk a
little NFL.
Speaker 6: Well, let's remember this, guys, there's no question what everyone
should be buying this week.
Speaker 5: Seven days for the price of three. It's that simple.
One hundred ten dollars a day.
Speaker 6: You'll get all the football weekend, the NFL weekend, the
rest of NBA and NHL college basketball through the playoffs.
So take advantage. That's me or any cap or wager talk.
Seven days for the price of three, clearly the best
way to go.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk a little NFL. You said you
had some some tidbits of information, some trends. So where
are we going.
Speaker 6: You know, guys, I've been doing a weekly NFL and
college football TNA report. It gets tagged to the bet
On it as the bonus section.
Speaker 5: I'll be recording it right after this show.
Speaker 6: If you are a Wager Talk insider, you'll have immediate
access once it gets uploaded. If you're not, it either
becomes available to the public Wednesday or Thursday. I'm not
quite sure of the time. But here's some tidbits guys
from my TNA segment that I will be recording later today. First,
let's just look at teams that have the bye since
twenty fifteen. Remember two teams used to have a bye.
The last several years, we're down to one team having
a bye. So this goes back to twenty fifteen. The
home team with a buye home teams as a favorite
to minus seven, so you're minus one to minus seven.
They've gone nine six and one against the spread, ten
and six over under. So small home favorites with a
bye play on and the over. If you're a team
that has a buye and you're a home favorite of
minus seven and a half or higher, you've gone five
and eight against the spread and five and eight over under.
Speaker 5: So some pretty clear numbers.
Speaker 6: Nothing you're going to base a play on or fae
to play, but keep those in mind. How about this though,
when we're looking at the teams that have buys. This
goes all the way back to twenty ten. Low totals
of forty two or less have gone three and five
over under. High totals of forty nine and a half
or more have gone eight and nine over under. But
those totals in the middle from forty two and a
half to forty nine when the home team has a
buye have gone eighteen and seven over under. So think
about that. The home teams with a bye to the over.
Two more things I want to share with you. These
are teams where both teams played Round one. Since twenty twenty,
home favorites minus three and a half or higre only
three and seven against the spread.
Speaker 5: Home dogs or small.
Speaker 6: Home favorites to minus three are seven and three against
the spread. And finally, away teams off and away playoff win.
We saw how many road teams win this past week. Well,
if you are off a playoff away win and now
you're on the road again, if you're an away dog
of seven or more, you've gone nine and five against
the spread. If you're an away favorite or a small
away dog up to plus seven, you're only five and
twelve against the spread. So some clear divides based on
favorites and dogs, high totals and low totals. Hopefully it
helps you get at least one extra winner this division
round of the NFL playoffs.
Speaker 1: Awesome stuff, Ralph, thank you very much. Yeah, it was
really good, really good stuff though, Ralph so appreciate it.
Ralph Michaels. We got the seven days for three days.
He gave you his five dollars. Ralph and the pen
always bringing the heat, thank you, Ralph got a and yeah, Dan,
you're already up one goal.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it was It was the team that we
hoped would be the one who could get on the
board first, because it completely changes the game. It's the
road team, Frankfurt, what was it, five minutes in they
get on the board, and I think somebody about ten
fifteen minutes ago said their offense is much better on
the road. They score five minutes in, so now we're
on Stutgart watch. They got they got some time to
do it. But now now we just need to both
team score. I should have partially what I was gonna
do was Frankfurt to score in the first half, and
you know, sometimes you.
Speaker 2: Get a little cute andy, but we got time let's
go Stuguart.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, we're rooting him on. Let's see
housekeeping stuff. Golf show is recorded right after that. We
will have a golf show the entire season. It's actually
it's gonna be incredible. We got some new category. Are
we doing the golf fights? Is that official?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 3: If we got golf fights, you know we're doing golf fights. Okay,
this is just the Andy's going to be giving you breakdowns,
free plays alongside one of the great members of our team.
Speaker 2: Yah.
Speaker 3: But then there's also going to be some peeling back
of the curtain, some taking a look at maybe some
of the best and the absolute worst that we saw
the weekend prior. But it's exciting that this this golf
season is back. It's one of the fun shows we did.
We used to do tea time, and we're moving forward
with a little something new called the cut Line and
it should be should be a fun one.
Speaker 2: Props outright, winners, all that good stuff.
Speaker 3: Anytime you want to get ready to bet golf that weekend,
this is the show to do it. And if you
want to laugh, laugh about some idiotcy we saw the
weekend prior. It's also the spot to do it, and
it's gonna be a fun one man.
Speaker 1: Very excited about that. The prop line is up where
we do a deep dive on props for tonight. Since
we got a little bit of time, I can go
through a little bit of line movements, some steam report
type things. I was, you know, I was thinking we all,
we all should have like our own shirts with our
own sayings on there. I think some people would probably
be pretty easy, Like wouldn't Yannis be a shirt that
just says just waiting for confirmation.
Speaker 2: Just waiting for confirmation it's a good one. Or a
shirt of just him winking is a good one.
Speaker 3: He's one of the guys who could pull off a
wink without it feeling creepy, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: So it's impressive stuff.
Speaker 1: Yes, so we have some blind moves in college basketball,
but again, just waiting for conference. We're just just waiting
for confirmation. Tennessee has moved from minus eight and a
half all the way up to minus nine and a half.
Dayton is taking money. Ralph gave you the breakdown on Louisville.
Miami is taking money on the road against Notre Dame Illinois.
Chicago is taking money against Northern Iowas. If you want
to bet that one, I would get in on that one.
Michigan State has already moved up to seven and a half.
They opened at six or at seven and a half,
So there's a lot of money coming in on that one.
A little bit on Valparaiso and a little bit on
Fresno State. That's kind of what I'm seeing there. Let's
do NFL here real quick. Dan thoughts on these these
numbers right here, You've got I mean basically a pick
em in Buffalo Denver?
Speaker 3: Yeah, really one feels about right, you know, and there's
always recency buias with the team that won there.
Speaker 5: Pick them.
Speaker 3: So you see in at one spy you got Denver
one and a half. I can't pick yeah, no, me neither.
And the total also feels right, like for what it's worth,
I would make that game pick them and forty five
and a half through forty six and a half, and
that that's what we're seeing. I guess the ones that
feel a little surprising to me. I know that Seattle's
at home, but Mike McDonald and the Seattle Seahawks had
actually fared better against the spread on the road. In
his tenure as they have, especially laying big numbers here
at home, so seeing them north of a touchdown that
feels a bit rich.
Speaker 2: But San Francisco lost George Kittle.
Speaker 3: They were already banged up heading into that Eagles game,
So I don't want the bias of maybe what we
saw in that game creeping in. But seven and a
half for two teams with some familiarity, that feels a
little bit steep. But you haven't seen really any movement
in any of these games. I think probably the surprising
one and the one that we can talk about as
being an actual opening line is what you're seeing in
New England and Houston. A lot of folks, especially on
the look aheadline, there was some spots that were saying
Houston should be a road favorite against New England, and
then what that New England defense did against the Chargers
if you rewatch that Chargers game. However, Justin Herbert was
not good in that football game. I know that he
was getting absolutely he was getting smacked in the second half,
but in the first half, he was holding onto the
ball way too long.
Speaker 2: He was missing wide open wide receivers. So does that
same thing happen with CJ.
Speaker 3: Stroud who he didn't look great that week, you know,
last night in that game, but they do enough defensively
to get it done. This one feels like even sitting
at forty one, it feels like that total is low
for a reason, Andy, because you saw the cracks in
Drake May when he played off against you know, a
solid defense who has time to prepare. They're arguable playing
the best defense in the NFL this week, So you
know three, making New England the home three favorite. It
makes sense with the weather that total I think is
telling a story.
Speaker 1: Well Houston doing it. Both those quarterbacks made some really
boneheaded decisions, yes, right, Like that game is really hard
to bet because one or two bad decisions from those
quarterbacks could immediately change that one. That one's that one's
pretty tough. I will say, don't overblow the Kittle injury
toan just is good. Yeah, he's actually been good, actually
really good. He was great when Kittle was out and
by the way, Kittle has been playing banged up like
so he's not a.
Speaker 3: Good point really really the entire season, And Bill, I
agree with you. The Texans offense probably doesn't score twenty
against New England, but that defense I mean Drake may
had turned the ball over quite a few times. You
turned the ball over on this defense, you're susceptible. They
were going the other way anytime that it's hitting the turf.
So I agree the offense may not be lighting them up,
especially with that cold weather in New England. But the defense,
I mean they could score fourteen themselves.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you got Tom just and as we had
a five percent player on Kyle us check over his
receiving and he's he's he could, He's got good hands,
he can catch, So you know.
Speaker 2: No reason to be as good as he is. Does
us check in the receiving game? You know what? Like,
has he ever dropped a pass like in his an
entire life?
Speaker 1: It feels like we're off hands. No, No, it hasn't
happened the Rams. So I team of Destiny, I think,
I think you're there's two obvious teams, the teams of
Destiny where everything's falling right for him. One is same
frame and obviously Chicago is the Yeah is the other one.
I will just say I would be terrified at laying
minus three and a half with an LA team with
Matt Stafford in the cold, I would be pretty terrified
to lay that, Andy.
Speaker 3: Not only is it going to be cold, like we're
talking about like real feels zero temperatures like it's going
to be. And you got you know, you know the
Hawaiian guy in Puka Nakua feeling good.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: You know DeVante Adams, sure he has some experience playing
in cold, being from Green Bay, that's where his best
years were played. But Matt Stafford, I'll have to pull
the numbers and we'll have it for you, Andy. But
I believe you know games under everybody talks about Tua
in the cold, Stafford has a little bit of that
in him as well. Yeah, three and a half four
in some spots against his Chicago team. Again, you know,
I want to keep fading Chicago. I just with this number,
it's it's Chicago.
Speaker 2: Or pass for me.
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I only do props. I don't do
money lends and spreads in the NFL. So that's that's
the best.
Speaker 2: Way to build that.
Speaker 3: And these are the sharpest lines you'll see all year long,
you know what I mean? And once worth talking about sharp,
talk about public Every single sharp play got obliterated.
Speaker 2: Last week.
Speaker 3: You had the line in the Eagles game outright loss.
You had everyone, oh, lay the ten against the Panthers,
no shot at covering that ten at any point in
that game. Every single sharp play got obliterated. Everybody loved
the Steelers last night, myself included Take the three. They're
live on the money line. Yeah, how did that turn
out so sharp as square? At this time of year,
you're you're obsessing over something that that's moot.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: Are you buying this?
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 1: Have you seen this story in San Francisco about the
players being injured because their facility is next to the
electrical grid.
Speaker 3: I mean, Andy, you know me, I love myself a
tinfoil hat. I myself a tinfoil hat.
Speaker 2: And I mean for.
Speaker 3: All the injuries that they have stacked up, I don't know.
I'm not I'm I'm I'm not completely bashing and saying,
there's no way that the electricity is affecting, you know,
the soft tissue of these players, because maybe where there's smoke,
there's fire.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: So for those that don't know what I'm talking about,
there is And this is real, like this is this
is the thing that there's that a lot of people
are making the case for it that this is a
real thing. So the facility for the forty nine ers
is right next to this huge electrical I don't know
what it's called, but this big electrical grid. And they
are making the case that all the electricity is weakening
players muscles and tendons and that's why you're having so
many injuries. And they brought this up like a while back. Now,
George Kittle goes out with the Achilles. I need to
see a bunch of scientific evidence. But if you can
show you that electrical effect, look at.
Speaker 3: These, that's your scientific evidence. And not no, it's it's
it's at least interesting to uh to bring up your
self substation, okay, right now, right, it's pretty crazy, man,
it's pretty wild.
Speaker 1: That's a that's a wild one.
Speaker 2: So I know, all right, I.
Speaker 3: Know I would feel better as a player if we
didn't have an electrical substation next to our field. You know,
whether it's true or not, I would feel better if
there wasn't that.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean, You're not trying to find
one with an electrical substation exactly.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying, you know what, I'm a free agent.
Speaker 3: I really I think that electrical substation is gonna make
me feel better.
Speaker 2: Let's let's go to San Francisco. I don't know if
I would be avoiding because of it, Andy, but I
certainly wouldn't be seeking it out. Definitely doesn't know.
Speaker 1: It's a good point. It's a good point. So all right, Well,
let's do some free plays and uh give the people
some props here. I'm going to that Spurs Thunder game.
Kilton Johnson over one and a half made threes. He's
on a nice little run over in four straight games.
What I like is the attempts. He's getting five attempts
per game. And again the Thunder team, they're in a funk.
Jayla Williams finally had a decent game. But this is
a team that's giving up big points. They need overtime
to beat Utah. They beat Memphis by one point. So
I'm just I'm just. I'll tell you, Dan, I'll tell
you this on the prop Line, the show the prop Line,
I do a same game parlay every day. The same
game parlay was the Spurs money line at plus two
seventy five with Keldon Johnson to make threes and he
gets you to five to one, which I just think
is inmedably. It's an incredible number, don't I don't know
why the Thunder are this big of favorites, but what
do I know? Let's take an under, a sneaky under
Canucks senator is Matthew k Chuck under three and a
half shots on goal? He has not gotten this number
very often. This is two and eight and this is
just a huge shots on goal number. And when you
look at him, he's only getting five shots. So he
needs to be very accurate to get to this four number.
And this is a play that's only hit forty two
this year. So take a Matthew can Chuck under and
he's gone under in two straight games against Vancouver and
then Warriors Blazers. I had to dig deep for this one.
Quinton Post over seven and a half points, Dan. If
I would have just said Quinton Post, would you have
been able to tell me what team he played for?
Speaker 3: No shot in hell? I might not have even been
able to tell you. To sport Andy, So I am.
I'm very intrigued by a Quinton Post prop.
Speaker 2: So well, he's starting.
Speaker 1: He's starting for the Golden State Warriors. And listen, this
this is why I do what I do and This
is why we do shows like the prop line to
Dig Deep, because this is how you build your bankroll. Guys,
you don't build your bank rolls on on NFL spreads.
You built him by Quinton Post over seven and a
half points. This guy is sneakily going over this total.
H Let's see what's his number, three straight games and
five of his last six. Here's the nice thing. He's
averaging seventeen minutes per game, and he's playing alongside Draymond Green,
who at any moment could be in foul, trouble or
be thrown out of the game. He's like setting an
NBA rints thrown thrown out of games, and he gets
a great matchup. He's starting at center, and I like
Donovan Kling and the starter starting center for Portland, but
is not very good defensively. Portland rinks twenty fifth in
points allowed to center. So you get Quinton Post who's
gone over in five out of six. He could get
an uptick in minutes if Draymond gets in trouble and
he's going up against a weak defense. So I think
Quenton Posts over seven and a half points is a
very very sneaky one, So love it. All right, Dan,
that's gonna do it. What's your schedule this week? Do
you know?
Speaker 3: So Tomorrow we're gonna record bet on It and maybe
a late ad for me. But then Thursday, during this show, Andy,
I will be in the air heading back east. Friday,
we will be uh moving some things around as well.
Speaker 2: So I for certain we'll be back with you a
full week Monday.
Speaker 3: Hopefully I get to see you tomorrow, but Thursday and
Friday I will not be with you.
Speaker 2: Unfortunately.
Speaker 1: AWB has a physics degree. Oh says it's likely. But
once players latch onto theory, it's over that. Honestly, that's
a really good point. Once it's in your head. If
you're a player, it's over. Doesn't it No different than
the yips?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you're You're right.
Speaker 1: If I'm playing sports and a bunch of teammates get
hurt and then somebody's like, hey, it's from the power grid.
Every time I have a little ache, it's just automatically liked.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, it's gotta be.
Speaker 1: It's gotta be s all right, Well, re leaving, please
hit the like button. It only takes a second your time.
It really really helps us out, uh leave in the
comment section your best bet for today. Appreciate you guys,
and also you can win a free three day pass.
Put Andy if you think I was gonna cover with
your wager talk user name.
Speaker 2: Put Jesse.
Speaker 1: If you think Miami's gonna cover with your wagers.
Speaker 2: And he said that's.
Speaker 3: The first half, Andy, I believe the first half five
and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he wants the first half five and a half.
Speaker 2: I think he's scared. I think he's scared.
Speaker 3: I think that's why he changed the first I would
never say while Jesse was here.
Speaker 2: Actually I probably would, but I think he.
Speaker 3: Was scared because because he was initially making a case
for the full game, and then he back pedaled a
little bit.
Speaker 2: So I smell fear. So comment below.
Speaker 3: If you think five and a half Miami can cover
in the first half, write Jesse. If you think five
and a half Indiana will cover early and cover late,
comment below Andy, and then Tuesday.
Speaker 2: We'll let you know who wins that free three day Ernest.
Speaker 1: Put it in the comments. We're getting ready to end
the show. Put it in the comments section. That way
we have it, and Ernest, make sure you do it,
because I don't think there's gonna be very many people
that type Jesse for this pig, so there could be.
Speaker 2: A lot of Andy's in there.
Speaker 1: So all right, comment yes, thank you very much, guys.
Dan and I will hopefully be back tomorrow and then
we'll bring him home for the rest of the week.
Speaker 3: Dan uh both teams to score, just hit Andy, both
teams to score.
Speaker 2: Cash watching bang out as we leave the show.
Speaker 3: Where's the WTF commenters? Where are you at? Where are
you at?
Speaker 2: Six minute? Andy? Let's go, baby, That's how we ended.
Speaker 5: Let's go.
Speaker 1: You didn't everyone loves you? You didn't have any WTF comments.
I don't think anybody.
Speaker 2: Oh there were some. There were here. I'll scroll up.
Speaker 3: Since we got a little time before the golf show,
you and I are recording, I gotta scroll all the.
Speaker 1: Way up in the beget really doubt Dan on the WTF.
Speaker 3: I was actually had WTF and then maxt w TF,
this hasn't hitten their last five head to head. Then
we go so so unfortunately the the wtf's greatly greatly demised.
Speaker 2: Cash that plus one ninety. We're feeling good. Let's go.
Speaker 1: Let's have a big Tuesday. Four percent NBA players up,
Good luck on all your bets we'll say over and tomorrow,
take care