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Speaker 1: I love Welcome to Way You Talk Today, the gold

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standard of sports betting shows, where he talked the talk

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and walk the walk five dollars Tuesday, we get NBA,

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got college basketball, We got Naddy Natty Championship to go over.

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Dan's taking a break from packing. How is first off?

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How is it going?

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Speaker 2: Is it? Are you?

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Speaker 1: Have you lost your mind yet packing up for the

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big move?

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Speaker 2: Well, Andy, we are now at the stage of the

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move that I have to hold a microphone.

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Speaker 3: So if you're wondering at what point, at what point

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we're at? All the gear is packed up, We're two

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days away from shipping out. So yes, it's it's skeleton crew.

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I mean, you know my studio is usually looking beautiful.

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There's nothing here, nothing on the walls. Everything is absconded

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into the moving boxes.

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Speaker 2: Andy.

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Speaker 3: So we're feeling good though, I will say, and it's

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we're excited, dude. We got a Tuesday show with two

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great guests coming your way here.

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Speaker 2: So if there's anything that can.

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Speaker 3: Get my mind off the hell that is a cross

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country move, it is hanging out with Jesse Schule and

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Ralph Michaels. Jesse Schule has a bet in the NBA

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game that just keeps on given, and that is the

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Spurs and Thunder. We get another mark in this chapter

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that's been one of the best matchups of this entire year.

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And then of course you know he's gonna come on

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and say, here's a team that I'm fading. In college football,

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there's only two teams to choose from Andy, So we'll

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find out what is the fade for him. Is he

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going head to head with Andy's.

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Speaker 2: Who who Hoosiers?

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Speaker 3: Or or is he riding with him and the SIGs.

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Ralph Michael's gonna shut things down for us today. He's

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talking Virginia, Louisville, Iowa State, and Kansas and he might

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even just be giving you a free client play here

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on the show. So more reasons than ever to hit

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that like button and make sure you are subscribed. We

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are Andy forty subscribers away from two hundred and forty thousand.

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Speaker 2: That's a big goal for us.

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Speaker 3: We obviously want the quarter of the million, but to

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get there first, we got to hit this two hundred

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and forty thousand. So if you're watching, folks and you

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haven't hit that subscribe button, we would greatly appreciate it.

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And he's got all around the world. Some free plays

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coming your way. I have a free play for you

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in the Bundesliga. I know everyone's waiting for that, Andy,

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So plenty of action come in your way. Hit that

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like button and subscribe. As we head on the Tuesday

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addition to wager Talk today.

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Speaker 1: Goose wants to know will we have a golf show?

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I wish I had a golf mug as I drink

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out of my golf mug. Yes, of course we're gonna

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have a golf show. We're actually recording right after this

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show and bringing the Feds for the Rogers rushing proper. Yes,

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did you see yesterday.

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Speaker 3: That play when he was rolling out to his right,

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had nothing but green grass in front of him, and

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what does he do instead? He fires an absolute piss

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missile that nobody had the chance of catching.

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Speaker 2: So, yes, as we.

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Speaker 3: Were joking about bringing in, yeah, bringing in the Feds

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yesterday on the show.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, brutal, But that was the whole night for Rogers.

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I mean that that was the entire.

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Speaker 3: Night for Rogers. So it should be be surprised. Andy,

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all we needed was a half. He cashed it in

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twenty of his twenty one playoffs starts. Now he's cashed

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it in twenty of his twenty two playoff starts and

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probably won't see any more from him.

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Speaker 1: In his defense, he basically had a defensive lineman on

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him the second he they hiked the ball. I mean

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that was we thought.

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Speaker 2: The PA defense is no joke, man.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, once they figured out they could get to him

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with only four rushers, that can get him over. Now

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C J. Stroud did did his best to keep them

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in the game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, here, you can have it.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, had more fumbles than completions to start the game

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and still they pull a Philadelphia Eagles and then go

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only muster up three points off of all of those turnovers.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, not gonna win games doing that. Andy.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring on Jesse. Jesse's got a couple of monster

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games to talk about. I'm interested in them both. Let's start.

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Let's start with the Naddy. Let's start with the big

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boy here, Jesse, we gotta break down.

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Speaker 4: I want to get right down to the nitty gritty.

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Speaker 1: Do you you got two every week you've come on,

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Like in the regular season, you have like eight hundred

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teams to pick a couple to fade. It's just slowly

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get But you got a fifty to fifty chance here

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to go against my Hoosias. It's a team to fade.

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So you only got two teams, you got to pick

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one to fade. Who is the fade?

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Speaker 4: Okay, Andy, Well, I'm not gonna tell you anything that

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you don't know already. Indiana is the best team in

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the country. I've been riding them all the way to

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the Natty, and yeah, I don't take anything away from

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this Indiana team, but I just think this line is

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on the wrong side of seven. There's some recency bias

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at play. We saw them put up a fifty burger

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on Oregon and they blew out Alabama thirty eight to three.

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Very impressive, but I think that's taken away from what

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we've seen from this team during the season. At the

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end of the day, they got a twenty to fifteen

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win at Iowa. That game was thirteen to three inside

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two minutes to play, or sorry, thirteen thirteen tie inside

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two minutes to play. They got a twenty seven twenty

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four win at Penn State. They were trailing by four

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points with thirty six left on the thirty six seconds

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left on the clock. They got a thirteen to ten

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win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game.

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They were trailing at halftime in that game, and you

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got to ask yourself, is this Miami team more like

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Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa? Or are they more

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like Alabama and Oregon? And I think deep down we

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all know the answer. At the end of the day,

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there's been ten There will be ten games between the

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last time these teams played and the Natty, And during

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those ten days, the Hoosers are going to hear about

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how they're the favorite. Some people are actually saying they're

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the greatest college football team of all time. Clay Travis

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did a show this morning claiming that Indiana might be

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the best team of all time RG three Adam Schefter,

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A lot of the pundits are saying similar things, and

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that is rat poison for these players. You know, I

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see some disturbing things in the body language. Even Kurt Signetti,

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who is normally quite stoic and stand offish with the media,

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he appears to be laid back with his feed up,

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ready to smoke a cigar. I think a lot of

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these players, and perhaps even some of the coaching staff,

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feel like it's they're so close to mission accomplished, and

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like I say, that's a really dangerous place to be,

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especially with ten days to soak that all in. Nick

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Saban has said that that kind of good press for

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your team is rat poison, And when you look at

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this Miami team, I want to bring you back to

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October eighteenth. Miami was ranked number two in the country.

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They were getting ready to play Louisville and I came

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on this YouTube channel and I gave out a play

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on Louisville on the money line. Miami was a double

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digit favorite. And what did I say. They're coming off

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a buye. That's two weeks to soak up that rat poison.

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And what happened. Louisville ended up beating them. One of

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only just two losses for Miami. Miami lost in overtime

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at SMU by six points, and they lost that game

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to Louisville by three points. Miami hasn't lost any games

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by eight and a half points. Do I think Indiana

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is the better team? I do, but I don't think

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this is a game that Miami can't win, and I

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think it's too many points. I think the best bet

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sidewise for spread would be plus five and a half

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on Miami for the first half, which is something I'd

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be interested in talking to you about. Andy. But as

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far as the absolute best value for this game, I

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think just straight up money line Miami. If this game

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is a low scoring game, if there's some turnovers, if

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Miami can get to the quarterback, this is a game

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that they can win. And if you're gonna get three

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to one on Miami, I think that's a better bet

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than laying eight and a half, a line that I

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think has been influenced by recency bias. So I think

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the value is with Miami, despite the fact that I

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can see that Indiana is the better team.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is the like, this is the easiest

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care to make things interesting since we started this segment.

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I mean, I mean this is this was Taylor Mane

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and I appreciate I appreciate you doing this, Jesse. I

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mean you basically teed it up. All right, let's give

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away three day past. Dan, explain how it works, because yes, Jesse,

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I will take my Hoosiers and you and I will

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go head to head. How's this work?

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Speaker 2: Dan? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Well, and honestly, the people who are tailing Jesse might

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just be getting the worst of this number because it

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seems like it's only climbing up higher for Indiana.

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Speaker 2: But we'll grade it as it sits here on Tuesday,

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and that is eight and a half.

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Speaker 3: So folks, if you think a dog is barking here

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and Miami can cover that eight and a half, comment

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below Jesse with your wager talk user name. If you

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think I you is the right side and they're winning

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going away and continuing this, uh this true fairy tale

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run that they've been on with signetti. Comment below and

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Andy and your wager talk user name. Whichever side covers

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If you're on that right side, free three day flex pass.

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It's that easy comment Andy, comment Jesse wager talk user

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name with whoever you think is covering, and that's how

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you win.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited. I like Jeff Jesse smile because get me a.

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Speaker 5: Little bit nervous.

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Speaker 2: Are you? Are you guys reading jes smile?

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Speaker 1: Are you? Jack does not like uh well.

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Speaker 4: A couple of weeks ago, when I picked Miami over

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Ohio State, I said, I haven't been drinking. Apparently they

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think I'm on something a lot stronger than alcohol.

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Speaker 5: But I should mention to the chat.

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Speaker 4: I'm thirteen and two combined in the NFL and college

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football playoffs. Swept the board with the wild card plays

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six and oh with the opening round of the NFL playoffs.

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So you know, whatever I'm on, it's working.

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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying not to jump through the screen and scream

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at Jesse all the things that my fandom.

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Speaker 3: Fantom Titans noticing the Eagles gear. Yeah, this one might

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get left in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 2: So this is on the fence.

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Speaker 3: If it's gonna make it into the into the gearbox,

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we'll see.

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Speaker 1: I think my favorite line from Jesse is recency bias. Yes,

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we've been kicking the ship out of everyone recently. Yes, yes, yes,

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that is recency biased. Yes we are biased because you've

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been killing him.

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Speaker 4: But to be fair, if they didn't put a fifty

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burger on Oregon, if they beat Oregon inside seven points,

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what would this line be. It wouldn't be eight and

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a half.

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Speaker 1: But they did put fifty, you know, but they did

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have a pick.

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Speaker 2: But they did week you can't judge.

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Speaker 3: Here's what I'll say, as an innocent bystander without a

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horse in the fight a National championship game, having somebody

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north of a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That's tough. I mean, you know me, I like my

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dogs handy.

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Speaker 3: I mean this this game, with what Miami has shown short,

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does the offense have the horses to hang with this

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Indiana team?

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Speaker 2: That's the question.

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Speaker 3: Can Carson Beck, you know, turn this now in a

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team that can go up and down the field on

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a defense.

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Speaker 2: Who is on that same level as Miami. That's the

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question here.

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Speaker 3: I just feel like when you're making a line, both

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of these teams have a shot and winning the Natty.

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Both of these teams have exceeded preseason expectations that are

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sitting here in the National Championship Game eight and a

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half feels crazy to me.

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Speaker 4: I think the chats proving my point. You see all

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the comments in the chat. I'm picking one side of

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a game ats that should be fifty to fifty, and

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the chat's calling me a you know, they're saying some

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pretty rich things about me. And when you see that

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one sided action one side, I believe people bet in

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one team like it's free money. That's a very very

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dangerous situation. And in those cases, I don't think you

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want to be laid to the party betting into an

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inflated line and that's what So I'm not gonna be

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shocked if Indiana wins and puts up a fifty burger

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this time. But I still don't think the value is

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in taking Indiana minus those points in this game.

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Speaker 1: And you also got to remember this is a line

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where the books are trying to get at least close

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to equal money on both sides. And see what we

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see with the chat is saying everyone's betting Indiana. So

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the books are just gonna be moving this number just

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to try. I don't know if it's I mean, it's

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not necessarily the book saying here's what we think this

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game is. They're saying this is what we think people

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are going to be betting. And how set a line

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to get this number on there? And I also got

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to say this to the chat, Jesse has done really well.

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This is a tough segment to come on and pick.

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Speaker 2: You have two guys.

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Speaker 1: He has two teams. Last fad he's got two.

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Speaker 3: So h it's gonna come down to I feel like

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you'll know early on in this game, like if Miami

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ain't covering early, I don't think they're going to be

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covering late.

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Speaker 5: I think And is.

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Speaker 4: First half five and a half, first half. That's that's

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the bet that I put out there.

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Speaker 2: That's what we're going.

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Speaker 4: That's what you gotta fade and five and a half

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for the first half.

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Speaker 1: All right, all right, first half game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah and half, first half, five and a half, first

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half will be the official I don't have my bell, Andy,

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that that too has been Okay, five and a half done.

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Speaker 2: First half comment below, Jesse.

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Speaker 3: If you think Miami can keep it close here in

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the first half five and a half, comment below, Andy

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if you think, uh, well, Jesse, Jess, I mean, we

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know what.

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Speaker 2: They're they're they're they're commenting there. Also, you know.

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Speaker 1: Dan doesn't have a horse in the fight, dde. It's

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dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: But well, either way, horses fight to Andy, you ever

294
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see the stable stable gets a little crazy, you're gonna

295
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horse in the race, dog in the fight. All I

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know is my entire life is in a box.

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Speaker 2: Andy. That's yeah, that's all I got for you.

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Speaker 1: You get a horse that goes crazy and then you say,

299
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well that that horse is not stable. Move on, we

300
00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:17,519
move on. We move on to the Spurs and the thunder. Jesse.

301
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When the Spurs beat the Thunder for the first time.

302
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It kind of felt like that was when the Thunder

303
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really started their letdown, and San Antonio is not took

304
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,960
their foot off the gas when they play him. This

305
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,840
is a series that's been dominated by the Spurs. Yet

306
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,679
the Thunder or minus eight with an over under of

307
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:41,519
two thirty. What's your breakdown of this game? Because this

308
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,360
is a line that stunned me when I first saw it.

309
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,399
Speaker 4: Well, I think a lot of people are thinking along

310
00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:51,559
the lines. Yeah, the Spurs have owned Oklahoma City. This

311
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is the narrative. The Spurs have owned Oklahoma City this season,

312
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and everybody sees this triple revenge spot. They've lost three

313
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straight to this team. They're at home, they don't lose

314
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at home, and that's the narrative that people are going

315
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to go with. I hate to disappoint everybody, but I

316
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think the value is as I often say, the value

317
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is not on the side in this game. I'm going

318
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to take a look at an alternative bet rather than

319
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,399
picking the side. I hate to disappoint you guys, but yeah,

320
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,600
San Antonio twenty seven and thirteen, twenty two, seventeen and

321
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,879
one against the spread. They've got almost as many road

322
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wins as they do home wins. They're coming off a

323
00:15:31,039 --> 00:15:34,720
one oh four to oneh three loss at Minnesota that

324
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makes it five straight games they've gone under the total.

325
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They've actually failed to reach the total in nine of

326
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their last ten games overall, and they're not just missing

327
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that total by a little bit, they're missing it by

328
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,480
a lot. This team ranks seventh in the NBA and

329
00:15:50,559 --> 00:15:53,919
opponent scoring, allowing one hundred and twelve point six points

330
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,759
per game. They've been playing very good defensively of late.

331
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As I said, they've owned the season in series with

332
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Oklahoma City. Two of those three games went under the total.

333
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,879
And the Spurs, they pay, play at a pretty slow pace.

334
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They rank eighteenth in the NBA, averaging one hundred and

335
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,759
three point six possessions per game. The Thunder, on the

336
00:16:16,759 --> 00:16:20,000
other hand, they're you know, they've struggled against the Spurs,

337
00:16:20,399 --> 00:16:23,399
but the Spurs represent roughly half of their losses. They're

338
00:16:23,639 --> 00:16:26,639
thirty three and seven overall. They don't have a winning

339
00:16:26,639 --> 00:16:29,279
record against the spread nineteen and twenty one against the

340
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,080
spread nineteen and two at home, so they don't lose

341
00:16:33,159 --> 00:16:36,600
at home very often. You would expect this in this

342
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,919
triple revenge spot to be a huge focus spot for

343
00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:44,240
the Thunder, and we've seen it before. The Thunder could

344
00:16:44,279 --> 00:16:47,759
really crank it up defensively. You see often they hold

345
00:16:47,799 --> 00:16:51,840
teams to well below fifty points in the first half.

346
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They you know, seventy five to forty or something in

347
00:16:55,159 --> 00:16:57,960
the first half. They really they can really put the

348
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,360
clamps on defensively if they want to. The total sits

349
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,680
at two thirty and a half last I checked. That

350
00:17:04,799 --> 00:17:07,200
was the best number available if you're looking at the

351
00:17:07,279 --> 00:17:10,319
under in a game between the number one team and

352
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,920
the number two team in the West, with the Spurs

353
00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,720
five and a half games back. You got the revenge

354
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factor and the fact that the last four meetings between

355
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these two teams in Oklahoma City have gone under the total,

356
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,000
and the fact that Oklahoma City also plays at a

357
00:17:27,079 --> 00:17:32,920
relatively slow pace, averaging one hundred and eight sorry not

358
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,319
one hundred and eight, but they rank fifteenth in the

359
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,480
NBA and possessions per game, so neither team plays at

360
00:17:38,599 --> 00:17:42,240
a fast pace. Both teams very good defensively on. Oklahoma

361
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:46,240
City is the number one defense in the NBA, allowing

362
00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:48,839
just one hundred and eight point four points per game.

363
00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,880
So yeah, two thirty seems like a total that might

364
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,920
be appropriate if you take away the revenge factor. But

365
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,079
given the revenge factor, I think both teams come to

366
00:17:58,079 --> 00:18:00,200
play on defense in this game. We'll go under that

367
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:00,799
two thirty.

368
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,359
Speaker 1: It's a solid take on that game. This is this

369
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,920
is one I will absolutely make time to watch. These

370
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,440
games have been really, really entertaining, so great game to watch.

371
00:18:11,559 --> 00:18:15,039
Jesse's looking at the under in that game. Jesse, it's

372
00:18:15,079 --> 00:18:17,240
five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up for everyone?

373
00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 4: I do have college basketball four percent play tonight, and

374
00:18:24,319 --> 00:18:27,480
I do have football up for the weekend already. As

375
00:18:27,519 --> 00:18:30,720
I said, I was six and oh with wild card

376
00:18:30,839 --> 00:18:34,799
plays this week, So now I'm thirteen and two with

377
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:39,920
my football playoff plays college and pros. So still hot.

378
00:18:41,319 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 1: All right, we'll give away what can we do if

379
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:49,480
Jesse sweeps the playoffs? Dan to like, if you want

380
00:18:49,559 --> 00:18:53,200
to work up something special, Yeah, we'll have workus if

381
00:18:53,319 --> 00:18:56,079
Jesse can sweep all the way through the Super Bowl. Jesse,

382
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,839
And but you have to put up pressure. You can't

383
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,839
just say I'm not putting up anymore plays and take

384
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:07,079
the sixth and oh. So that's very impressive, Jesse. Six

385
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:08,240
and oh was really really good.

386
00:19:08,599 --> 00:19:10,759
Speaker 4: I like the idea that you even think it's possible

387
00:19:10,759 --> 00:19:14,559
that I can sweep the playoffs.

388
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, we get less and less games each week, mo,

389
00:19:18,839 --> 00:19:20,799
I know we got a few.

390
00:19:22,279 --> 00:19:24,359
Speaker 4: I don't think I've ever seen a handicapper sweep the

391
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,720
playoffs before. I don't think I can't say that. Have

392
00:19:26,799 --> 00:19:28,759
you guys ever heard of it being done? Like twenty

393
00:19:28,799 --> 00:19:29,839
five and oh for.

394
00:19:29,839 --> 00:19:32,279
Speaker 1: The mills, Like you have to remember double digits, like

395
00:19:32,319 --> 00:19:34,200
if you if you just pick the couple, but if

396
00:19:34,559 --> 00:19:38,160
you if you get to ten and oh, that's legendary status.

397
00:19:38,559 --> 00:19:41,640
Legendary status in my opinion. So all right, Jesse's got

398
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,720
college Basketball's got NFL up already, So great job on

399
00:19:45,759 --> 00:19:47,960
that on that weekend, Jesse, and good luck this week

400
00:19:48,279 --> 00:19:51,440
and we will reconvene. Oh, you're gonna be on Tuesday Show.

401
00:19:51,519 --> 00:19:53,400
He's gonna be on Tuesday Show next week's we get.

402
00:19:53,279 --> 00:19:55,559
Speaker 2: The Oh, it will be a nice recap, it will

403
00:19:55,599 --> 00:19:56,279
be a nice.

404
00:19:57,599 --> 00:19:59,759
Speaker 1: Just be prepared. I will not be one hundred percent.

405
00:20:00,799 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, no matter what, No matter what I'll be I'll

406
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:04,599
be doing the heavy lifting for you.

407
00:20:04,599 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 2: Don't worry.

408
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,279
Speaker 1: I got yours the same, Dan, You're gonna have to

409
00:20:07,279 --> 00:20:09,039
do the intros, the outros, the end.

410
00:20:09,039 --> 00:20:13,599
Speaker 3: I gotcha, yeah, the mid tros, the entros.

411
00:20:13,039 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 2: I got you, I got oh.

412
00:20:15,279 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 1: All right, So we gotta do the WTFLFG real quick

413
00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:20,319
because it starts in ten minutes. So this is for

414
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,880
all of you live viewers. Yes, let's get best.

415
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:24,599
Speaker 2: So we'll keep it.

416
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,400
Speaker 3: We'll keep it, We'll keep it nice and short. As

417
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,119
it is going in just a few minutes. I'll tell

418
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:30,480
you what the play is at the top, so if

419
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,000
you want to tail it or fade it, you can

420
00:20:32,039 --> 00:20:32,920
go and do it now.

421
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,079
Speaker 2: But I'm taking.

422
00:20:33,839 --> 00:20:36,559
Speaker 3: Both teams to score in the first half of the

423
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,759
Germany Bundesliga game coming up at twelve thirty. That's Stutgart

424
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,200
versus Eintrack Frankfurt and this took. This could even be

425
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,640
a live sweat andy as it's going at twelve thirty

426
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,160
and we're playing the first half play. Here's the thought

427
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,559
for me is the game total two and a half

428
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,839
over is minus two thirty five. Both teams to score

429
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,240
in the game is minus two fifteen. These are two

430
00:20:57,279 --> 00:20:59,759
teams that are both top and top ten on the

431
00:20:59,759 --> 00:21:03,759
table goals scored, top five in goals four as a

432
00:21:03,839 --> 00:21:06,400
matter of fact, and Frankfurt is the team was really

433
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:10,839
allowed the most goals. They're top three in goals allowed. However,

434
00:21:11,319 --> 00:21:15,039
this Frankfurt offense is better on the road than they

435
00:21:15,039 --> 00:21:17,680
are at home. They've been road warriors all year long.

436
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,559
They actually average over a goal and a half scored

437
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,240
in the first half. So we're taking a little plus

438
00:21:23,319 --> 00:21:27,279
money shot plus one ninety first half both teams to

439
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:32,319
score Stutgart versus iintrack Frankfurt. It's going in nine minutes, folks,

440
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,839
So if you want to fade or follow, do it now.

441
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:36,839
That's your wtfor lfg Andy.

442
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,799
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, plus one ninety kept me in. It starts

443
00:21:40,799 --> 00:21:44,119
your ruin of it. Like if we can draw a segment,

444
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,480
maybe we hit it before the show's over.

445
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,920
Speaker 2: That would be lovely. That would be lovely. That sounds

446
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:51,880
good to me, Andy, That's what I mean.

447
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,599
Speaker 3: I've been so bad in American football that I was like,

448
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,000
screw it. We're going to European football and let's see

449
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:00,720
if we can do a little bit that her over there.

450
00:22:00,839 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 2: So a little action for you here in the afternoon.

451
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 1: That's great. I've been awful of American football, so we'll

452
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,480
try the Bundesliga out.

453
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,599
Speaker 2: Next up, is Belarusian handball Andy.

454
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,279
Speaker 1: All right, all right, hey, if you can find an edge,

455
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:25,039
I'm all ears man, I know that. I I once

456
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,640
I paid a guy for like six months, like like

457
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,480
two hundred and fifty dollars a month just for Russian

458
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,200
table tennis. Oh, it was a cash it was a

459
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,720
cash cow. We got all our accounts, we got all

460
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,480
our accounts limited, so we had to That's.

461
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: What I mean. Yeah, I know that.

462
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 3: Whenever whenever the odds makers, the bookies they see you

463
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,920
crushing them in Russian table tennis, they're.

464
00:22:47,759 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 2: Like, ah, probably don't want this guy to bet bet

465
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:50,920
with me.

466
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 1: Was short lived, but what an amazing six months. I mean,

467
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,440
it was like taking a pay cut when he was like, sorry,

468
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:58,000
I can't do.

469
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: These Andy these anymore.

470
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 3: NBA in recent memory, for you might as well be

471
00:23:03,039 --> 00:23:05,559
rushing table tennis because it's ten and five over the

472
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,960
last ten days for you, four straight in NBA. You

473
00:23:10,039 --> 00:23:13,960
mentioned to our man Jesse there five dollars Tuesday. With

474
00:23:14,079 --> 00:23:15,839
that hot of an NBA record, you got to be

475
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,480
going with a five dollars play for yourself.

476
00:23:17,519 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: Is it an NBA I'm guessing.

477
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a four percent NBA play. We hit. Full disclosure,

478
00:23:23,799 --> 00:23:26,559
we lost our NFL play last night. To be honest,

479
00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:29,119
it really wasn't that close. We had Pat Fryer muth

480
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,240
over his receiving and it was pretty obvious from the

481
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,599
beginning that Rogers was just gonna have no time to throw.

482
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,480
So apologize for that one. But we did hit an

483
00:23:38,599 --> 00:23:41,400
NBA play last night. So NBA has been running really good,

484
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,799
four in a row ten and five the last ten days,

485
00:23:43,799 --> 00:23:45,920
so twenty twenty six off to a really good start.

486
00:23:46,279 --> 00:23:49,519
In NBA. We're up fifteen units overall, so it's a

487
00:23:49,519 --> 00:23:52,279
player prop every Tuesday. My five dollars play is a

488
00:23:52,319 --> 00:23:54,519
player prop. And I was so glad to get this number.

489
00:23:54,519 --> 00:23:55,880
I didn't think I was going to get this number.

490
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,279
I knew who I wanted, I knew what category, and

491
00:23:58,279 --> 00:24:00,000
I knew what number I wanted. And lo and behold,

492
00:24:00,519 --> 00:24:02,680
the gambling gods were looking down upon us and we

493
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,839
got the play that we wanted. So it's only five

494
00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:07,400
bucks over at wager talk and again, get as many

495
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,799
five dollars plays as you're comfortable with. Get Jesse's, get Ralphs,

496
00:24:10,799 --> 00:24:14,799
who's coming up, Get anybuddies, but make sure you bet responsibly.

497
00:24:14,839 --> 00:24:17,359
Don't have a ton of your bank roll on one Tuesday.

498
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,559
But it's a great way to try out a plethora

499
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,599
of handicappers. You can get sides totals, myself, props a

500
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,160
lot of good stuff there at wager Talk. So let's

501
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,079
bring in Ralph. Let's bringing Ralph and his good friend

502
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:30,519
the pen.

503
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,319
Speaker 2: Ah, yes, we need the pen.

504
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,839
Speaker 3: You're muted, Ralph, but we need the pen and the

505
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,160
and the voice is in.

506
00:24:37,799 --> 00:24:40,759
Speaker 6: You know, before you were traveling, you as the hope,

507
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:43,160
you as the producer, used to unmute me, So now

508
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:44,440
we have to do that ourselves.

509
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 5: Gee many crickets, Are you getting little.

510
00:24:47,559 --> 00:24:50,319
Speaker 2: Production value at an all time low? Exactly?

511
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 6: I feel like one of those guys in a game

512
00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:57,519
show that come on at the end. These are these

513
00:24:57,559 --> 00:24:59,960
corrections and additions from earlier in the show.

514
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: So hit it.

515
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 6: I went to the data base where you guys were talking.

516
00:25:04,839 --> 00:25:07,200
Shout out to Andrew McGinnis. He went nine to zero

517
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,640
in the NFL playoffs last year. He's the only one

518
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,480
in the last few years that had at least nine

519
00:25:11,519 --> 00:25:15,519
wins but no losses. So I did check that. And

520
00:25:15,519 --> 00:25:18,440
and Dan, you know people talk about Jesse smoking. Maybe

521
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,680
I should say, are you smoking or are you drinking?

522
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,039
You said a playoff college football playoff game with a

523
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:29,960
line north of seven seems crazy. Well, let me tell you.

524
00:25:30,319 --> 00:25:33,680
In the last five years, Ohio State late eight and

525
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,000
a half to Notre Dame last year won by eleven.

526
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 5: Georgia late thirteen and a half to.

527
00:25:38,319 --> 00:25:42,319
Speaker 6: TCU, won sixty five to seven, Bama late nine and

528
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,000
a half to Ohio State, and won fifty two to

529
00:25:45,039 --> 00:25:47,319
twenty four. So not only have there been three in

530
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,599
the last five years, they all covered easily.

531
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:55,519
Speaker 3: Wow, sweat is that is Penn from the top rope there, Andy,

532
00:25:55,759 --> 00:25:56,680
you gotta love it.

533
00:25:56,839 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: That was good. He's the best in the business for

534
00:25:59,039 --> 00:26:02,000
a reason. Folks, Ralph, we got to yeah, we got

535
00:26:02,039 --> 00:26:04,079
we're gonna go for some college basketball. You're gonna be

536
00:26:04,079 --> 00:26:08,440
our college basketball guru. And then uh uh Pres is

537
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,200
But what a surprise. Pres is not joining us, Shocked

538
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,000
to the surprise of no one.

539
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:14,839
Speaker 3: Is telling us that he's not gonna be on the

540
00:26:14,839 --> 00:26:16,519
show twenty four hours before the show.

541
00:26:16,559 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 2: I'm so shocked. This is this is this is flooring stuff.

542
00:26:20,519 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 1: Uh So we're gonna talk a little NFL get you

543
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,720
guys some props and some information. But let's let's go

544
00:26:25,759 --> 00:26:28,000
to college basketball. We got a really good doubleheader. We

545
00:26:28,079 --> 00:26:32,119
have Virginia Louisville, Hiowa State, Kansas. We'll start with Virginia Louisville.

546
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:33,839
And this is a client play for you.

547
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 6: I believe it is, And to be honest with you,

548
00:26:37,839 --> 00:26:42,359
this was close to being a five percent play. You know, again,

549
00:26:43,079 --> 00:26:46,799
people need to realize people get too enamored with five percent.

550
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,200
Remember we suggest betting a half a unit per unit.

551
00:26:50,279 --> 00:26:52,839
So if three percent play is one and a half units,

552
00:26:52,839 --> 00:26:54,480
a four percent play is two and a half. A

553
00:26:54,559 --> 00:26:57,200
five percent is two and a half. So don't get

554
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,319
too enamored with five percent or four percent. Make sure

555
00:27:00,319 --> 00:27:03,000
you keep him consistent. But I look at this game

556
00:27:03,599 --> 00:27:07,720
and it shows value all the way around. We have

557
00:27:07,799 --> 00:27:11,359
a team in Louisville that is very fast paced. On

558
00:27:11,519 --> 00:27:15,720
the season, they're number fifty two and on offense they're

559
00:27:15,799 --> 00:27:20,599
number fourteen. But there are many times when teams are

560
00:27:20,599 --> 00:27:23,799
playing their non conference schedule that they up the MPO,

561
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,799
that they that they try new lineups, that they run

562
00:27:26,839 --> 00:27:30,279
and gun. When you get into conference play, they truly

563
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:34,640
slow down the tempo, which has happened for the Cardinals. Also,

564
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:40,079
let's mention this Louisville is the number one highest three

565
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:44,039
point shooting team in the country. Fifty four point one

566
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,839
percent of every shot they take is from three. The

567
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,960
issue with that is their top score and number one

568
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,480
three point shooter Ryan Conwell, averaging twenty points per game.

569
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 5: He missed last game and he's.

570
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:06,039
Speaker 6: Questionable this time. Their number two scorer mckel Brown. Remember

571
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,160
we talked about mcel brown last week. I said Duke's

572
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,880
the only way I can play versus Louisville last Tuesday

573
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,880
because mdel Brown was still out. Well, guess what, He's

574
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,839
now missed six straight games and he is still doubtful.

575
00:28:20,519 --> 00:28:24,039
Louisville again up Temple. But even with that up tempo,

576
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,480
they're one in five over under their last six games,

577
00:28:28,079 --> 00:28:30,920
and the only game that went over is an anomaly.

578
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,279
They traveled to the Cal Bears and this was game

579
00:28:34,599 --> 00:28:38,440
post Christmas break, so the teams had eight and nine

580
00:28:38,519 --> 00:28:42,480
days off. You don't quite have that same defensive intensity

581
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,880
with a long layoff. With a total of under one

582
00:28:47,039 --> 00:28:51,160
sixty two, Louisville has also won in six over under

583
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,640
that over again versus Cal.

584
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 5: We look at Virginia.

585
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 6: Yes, they are still one of the slowest paced teams.

586
00:29:00,279 --> 00:29:04,519
Their defense stops people from pressing the pace. Their defense

587
00:29:04,599 --> 00:29:07,920
is number three hundred and fifty two as far as

588
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,720
tempo is concerned. I mentioned louisvill shoots the most three

589
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:12,720
pointers in the country.

590
00:29:13,039 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 5: Guess what.

591
00:29:14,079 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 6: Virginia's pack defense elite number eleven in three point defenses.

592
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:25,799
Louisvo's only faced one top twenty five three point defense

593
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:30,160
this season. They only scored sixty two points in that game.

594
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 5: The Calves.

595
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 6: I mentioned defense intensity. When you get into your rhythm,

596
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,119
you play better defense. Well, when the Calves have at

597
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,160
least four days off, they're four to one over under.

598
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,920
They don't have the same defense of intensity. But when

599
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,440
they're playing with traditional one to two or three days

600
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,599
of rest, they're two to seven over under with the

601
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,680
only game only two games going under as a huge

602
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,480
twenty five point favorite and one in neutral game early

603
00:30:01,759 --> 00:30:06,440
in December under one fifty four. This is a four

604
00:30:06,519 --> 00:30:10,680
percent client release. And again this was close to actually

605
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,599
being a five percent client play for me on Tuesday.

606
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: Like it. Like it. It's a compelling case defense, low numbers.

607
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,720
It's a really good breakdown, Ralph.

608
00:30:23,759 --> 00:30:25,599
Speaker 5: You know what, Andy, let me mention one more thing.

609
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 6: Well, it's important you know, when we're talking about games today,

610
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,680
it's also important to pay attention to what people are saying.

611
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,680
This Louisville team is twelve and four. Yeah, they lost

612
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,599
to Stanford, they lost to Duke. Remember they played seven

613
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,039
games without their top two scores. And they also just

614
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,319
got another player eligible who played three years in the

615
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,960
D League. He is eligible tonight for the first time.

616
00:30:48,279 --> 00:30:50,680
This Louisville team is a team to keep an eye

617
00:30:50,759 --> 00:30:53,920
on next week or in the next few games when

618
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,960
all these pieces are back in the fold again. I

619
00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:59,920
have this game circle for the cards, and I have

620
00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:02,400
to keep a notebook and a calendar, and I start looking,

621
00:31:02,519 --> 00:31:04,839
start looking to see if Louiso's a play on team.

622
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,359
You may be wrong, but always shot those notes down

623
00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:10,200
and make sure you're paying attention to that.

624
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: That's really good stuff. Yeah, we look through these teams

625
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,039
and I do this in the player props market. Can

626
00:31:15,039 --> 00:31:16,559
we get a team that's getting ready to go on

627
00:31:16,559 --> 00:31:18,359
a run like three games in a row and see

628
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,079
if we can snipe those numbers before the books catch

629
00:31:21,119 --> 00:31:24,079
up to them. So keep an eye on that team.

630
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,960
So all right, Ralph, we move on to the next game.

631
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,519
We're going to talk Iowa State and Kansas Iowa State

632
00:31:30,599 --> 00:31:32,599
small favor here minus three and a half over under

633
00:31:32,599 --> 00:31:34,400
one fifty one and a half. What do you think

634
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:35,079
about this game?

635
00:31:36,599 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 6: Well, what quasi world do we leave in that Kansas

636
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,799
is a home dog? Well, guess what they are this year.

637
00:31:43,119 --> 00:31:45,920
You look at Kansas, they have played a tough schedule,

638
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,920
how tough number two in the country. Yes, they're eleven

639
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,440
and five. All the losses aren't horrible. At North Carolina

640
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,400
versus Duke home to Yukon, they were a home dog

641
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:57,839
once this year they lost and failed to cover. They

642
00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:59,880
went to UCF and lost, and they went to West

643
00:32:00,039 --> 00:32:03,799
Virginia and lost this past Saturday. It is concerning though

644
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,599
that Kansas just does not have that same continuity. They

645
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,400
led West Virginia by eight points in the second half

646
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,000
and they got outscored by thirty points to lose that

647
00:32:15,079 --> 00:32:18,759
game by eleven. Those type of things are concerning the

648
00:32:18,839 --> 00:32:23,720
Kansas offense about fifty. The defense is still top twenty one.

649
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,519
Thing they do not do they get no defensive pressure.

650
00:32:27,079 --> 00:32:30,079
There are three hundred and sixty six teams in college basketball.

651
00:32:30,359 --> 00:32:34,319
They are number three hundred and forty six as far

652
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,799
as forcing turnovers on defense in Iowa State. We have

653
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:44,160
a balanced, deep team, we have senior guards. We have

654
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,920
a team that is number forty seven in offensive turnovers.

655
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:51,160
They don't turn the ball over often. On defense, they're elite.

656
00:32:51,319 --> 00:32:55,079
They're number three. They've caused twenty four point five turnovers

657
00:32:55,079 --> 00:32:55,559
per game.

658
00:32:56,359 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 5: And when we get to this point in time, it

659
00:32:59,279 --> 00:32:59,880
is rare.

660
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 6: It is very rare to say you actually have value

661
00:33:04,279 --> 00:33:08,599
on a sixteen and team. But with Kansas being a

662
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,920
home dog and Iowa State being only two and five

663
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,880
against the spread, I actually think this line should be

664
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,279
closer to six or six and a half. I think

665
00:33:17,319 --> 00:33:21,480
there is actually value on an Iowa State as the

666
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:25,240
way favorite. You know, and when I look at those

667
00:33:25,319 --> 00:33:28,079
seven games that they're two and five against the spread,

668
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:33,039
all five atis losses were as a double digit favorite,

669
00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:37,640
and the average line was minus twenty five points per game.

670
00:33:38,079 --> 00:33:40,480
To me, that is perfect. That's exactly what you want

671
00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:43,240
to see. You don't want to waste your energy as

672
00:33:43,279 --> 00:33:46,759
a double digit favorite with a double digit lead, and

673
00:33:46,799 --> 00:33:49,440
you're starting to work in some extra guys. When the

674
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,039
games are meaningful, like the two they covered in his

675
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:56,079
last five, you bear down and you play well. The

676
00:33:56,119 --> 00:33:58,839
only negative I have for Iowa State in this game

677
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,119
is they are a very poor free throw shooting team.

678
00:34:02,519 --> 00:34:05,799
They shoot under seventy percent. That's about two hundred and

679
00:34:05,839 --> 00:34:08,880
eighty in the country. And when you're on the road

680
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,320
in this type of close game, I like Iowa State

681
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,480
a lot. It is a free play, but the free

682
00:34:15,519 --> 00:34:17,920
throw shooting in this type of game with a close

683
00:34:18,039 --> 00:34:23,159
line playing at Hilton does keep me off it being

684
00:34:23,199 --> 00:34:26,079
a client release. Again, there's times to be selective. I'd

685
00:34:26,199 --> 00:34:29,719
much rather leave a loser off than put a winner on.

686
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,320
You leave those two games off, you go fifty to

687
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,119
fifty or saving yourself ten percent.

688
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:40,199
Speaker 1: Use I've see where you're going with that, Ralph. Yeah,

689
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,280
it's it's it's a good breakdown. Once again, what was

690
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,039
the reasons why it didn't quite make the make the It.

691
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 6: Really is just the free throw shooting. They are that

692
00:34:48,159 --> 00:34:51,119
bad shooting free throws. So you know, again you're laying

693
00:34:51,159 --> 00:34:53,320
three and a half on the road to Kansas, where

694
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,519
you've been a dog for forty five straight years, you

695
00:34:55,599 --> 00:34:57,719
know what I mean. So it is tough that if

696
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,400
you have a four or five point lead, then they

697
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,559
start following and you know they're still going to be

698
00:35:01,639 --> 00:35:05,199
crazy in Lawrence, Texas. Missing a few free throws can

699
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,039
completely change the dynamics of a game. If this were

700
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,039
if this were picker one, I'd be okay using them

701
00:35:11,199 --> 00:35:13,719
at three and a half or four. The free throw,

702
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,719
the negative free throw shooting is a major factor.

703
00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: All right, all right, it's five dollars Tuesday. You already

704
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,400
gave out for your five dollars play Ralph, So what

705
00:35:24,519 --> 00:35:26,119
else do you have up? And then let's talk a

706
00:35:26,119 --> 00:35:26,840
little NFL.

707
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:31,199
Speaker 6: Well, let's remember this, guys, there's no question what everyone

708
00:35:31,199 --> 00:35:32,239
should be buying this week.

709
00:35:32,639 --> 00:35:34,639
Speaker 5: Seven days for the price of three. It's that simple.

710
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,000
One hundred ten dollars a day.

711
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 6: You'll get all the football weekend, the NFL weekend, the

712
00:35:39,519 --> 00:35:43,360
rest of NBA and NHL college basketball through the playoffs.

713
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,400
So take advantage. That's me or any cap or wager talk.

714
00:35:46,679 --> 00:35:49,599
Seven days for the price of three, clearly the best

715
00:35:49,639 --> 00:35:50,119
way to go.

716
00:35:53,119 --> 00:35:56,559
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk a little NFL. You said you

717
00:35:56,599 --> 00:36:00,519
had some some tidbits of information, some trends. So where

718
00:36:00,519 --> 00:36:00,960
are we going.

719
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,679
Speaker 6: You know, guys, I've been doing a weekly NFL and

720
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,400
college football TNA report. It gets tagged to the bet

721
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,599
On it as the bonus section.

722
00:36:11,159 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 5: I'll be recording it right after this show.

723
00:36:14,119 --> 00:36:17,119
Speaker 6: If you are a Wager Talk insider, you'll have immediate

724
00:36:17,159 --> 00:36:20,119
access once it gets uploaded. If you're not, it either

725
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,480
becomes available to the public Wednesday or Thursday. I'm not

726
00:36:23,559 --> 00:36:26,880
quite sure of the time. But here's some tidbits guys

727
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:33,679
from my TNA segment that I will be recording later today. First,

728
00:36:34,679 --> 00:36:37,400
let's just look at teams that have the bye since

729
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,960
twenty fifteen. Remember two teams used to have a bye.

730
00:36:41,159 --> 00:36:44,159
The last several years, we're down to one team having

731
00:36:44,199 --> 00:36:47,800
a bye. So this goes back to twenty fifteen. The

732
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:53,880
home team with a buye home teams as a favorite

733
00:36:54,079 --> 00:36:57,079
to minus seven, so you're minus one to minus seven.

734
00:36:57,599 --> 00:37:01,400
They've gone nine six and one against the spread, ten

735
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,599
and six over under. So small home favorites with a

736
00:37:04,639 --> 00:37:10,599
bye play on and the over. If you're a team

737
00:37:10,639 --> 00:37:12,880
that has a buye and you're a home favorite of

738
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,880
minus seven and a half or higher, you've gone five

739
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,599
and eight against the spread and five and eight over under.

740
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 5: So some pretty clear numbers.

741
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 6: Nothing you're going to base a play on or fae

742
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:28,480
to play, but keep those in mind. How about this though,

743
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,519
when we're looking at the teams that have buys. This

744
00:37:31,559 --> 00:37:35,559
goes all the way back to twenty ten. Low totals

745
00:37:35,559 --> 00:37:38,480
of forty two or less have gone three and five

746
00:37:38,559 --> 00:37:42,199
over under. High totals of forty nine and a half

747
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,599
or more have gone eight and nine over under. But

748
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,320
those totals in the middle from forty two and a

749
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,639
half to forty nine when the home team has a

750
00:37:52,639 --> 00:37:57,840
buye have gone eighteen and seven over under. So think

751
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,840
about that. The home teams with a bye to the over.

752
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,119
Two more things I want to share with you. These

753
00:38:04,159 --> 00:38:08,639
are teams where both teams played Round one. Since twenty twenty,

754
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:14,079
home favorites minus three and a half or higre only

755
00:38:14,119 --> 00:38:15,679
three and seven against the spread.

756
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,039
Speaker 5: Home dogs or small.

757
00:38:18,639 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 6: Home favorites to minus three are seven and three against

758
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:28,039
the spread. And finally, away teams off and away playoff win.

759
00:38:28,679 --> 00:38:31,760
We saw how many road teams win this past week. Well,

760
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,400
if you are off a playoff away win and now

761
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,199
you're on the road again, if you're an away dog

762
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,519
of seven or more, you've gone nine and five against

763
00:38:41,519 --> 00:38:45,880
the spread. If you're an away favorite or a small

764
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,480
away dog up to plus seven, you're only five and

765
00:38:49,519 --> 00:38:52,880
twelve against the spread. So some clear divides based on

766
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,719
favorites and dogs, high totals and low totals. Hopefully it

767
00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:00,000
helps you get at least one extra winner this division

768
00:39:00,199 --> 00:39:02,559
round of the NFL playoffs.

769
00:39:04,199 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 1: Awesome stuff, Ralph, thank you very much. Yeah, it was

770
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:10,039
really good, really good stuff though, Ralph so appreciate it.

771
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,760
Ralph Michaels. We got the seven days for three days.

772
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:14,880
He gave you his five dollars. Ralph and the pen

773
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:21,159
always bringing the heat, thank you, Ralph got a and yeah, Dan,

774
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,360
you're already up one goal.

775
00:39:23,599 --> 00:39:25,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it was It was the team that we

776
00:39:25,639 --> 00:39:27,480
hoped would be the one who could get on the

777
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,800
board first, because it completely changes the game. It's the

778
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:33,440
road team, Frankfurt, what was it, five minutes in they

779
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,320
get on the board, and I think somebody about ten

780
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,119
fifteen minutes ago said their offense is much better on

781
00:39:39,159 --> 00:39:41,719
the road. They score five minutes in, so now we're

782
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,440
on Stutgart watch. They got they got some time to

783
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,519
do it. But now now we just need to both

784
00:39:46,559 --> 00:39:49,159
team score. I should have partially what I was gonna

785
00:39:49,199 --> 00:39:51,480
do was Frankfurt to score in the first half, and

786
00:39:51,639 --> 00:39:52,559
you know, sometimes you.

787
00:39:52,559 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 2: Get a little cute andy, but we got time let's

788
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:55,119
go Stuguart.

789
00:39:56,119 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: All right, all right, we're rooting him on. Let's see

790
00:40:00,079 --> 00:40:03,280
housekeeping stuff. Golf show is recorded right after that. We

791
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,320
will have a golf show the entire season. It's actually

792
00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:11,800
it's gonna be incredible. We got some new category. Are

793
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,280
we doing the golf fights? Is that official?

794
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:15,159
Speaker 6: Oh?

795
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,559
Speaker 3: If we got golf fights, you know we're doing golf fights. Okay,

796
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,320
this is just the Andy's going to be giving you breakdowns,

797
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,880
free plays alongside one of the great members of our team.

798
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:24,159
Speaker 2: Yah.

799
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 3: But then there's also going to be some peeling back

800
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,800
of the curtain, some taking a look at maybe some

801
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,480
of the best and the absolute worst that we saw

802
00:40:32,519 --> 00:40:35,320
the weekend prior. But it's exciting that this this golf

803
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,800
season is back. It's one of the fun shows we did.

804
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,679
We used to do tea time, and we're moving forward

805
00:40:40,679 --> 00:40:43,400
with a little something new called the cut Line and

806
00:40:43,599 --> 00:40:45,159
it should be should be a fun one.

807
00:40:45,199 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 2: Props outright, winners, all that good stuff.

808
00:40:48,039 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 3: Anytime you want to get ready to bet golf that weekend,

809
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,280
this is the show to do it. And if you

810
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:54,400
want to laugh, laugh about some idiotcy we saw the

811
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,199
weekend prior. It's also the spot to do it, and

812
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:58,400
it's gonna be a fun one man.

813
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,360
Speaker 1: Very excited about that. The prop line is up where

814
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,360
we do a deep dive on props for tonight. Since

815
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,239
we got a little bit of time, I can go

816
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,920
through a little bit of line movements, some steam report

817
00:41:10,519 --> 00:41:14,320
type things. I was, you know, I was thinking we all,

818
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,039
we all should have like our own shirts with our

819
00:41:16,079 --> 00:41:18,159
own sayings on there. I think some people would probably

820
00:41:18,199 --> 00:41:22,119
be pretty easy, Like wouldn't Yannis be a shirt that

821
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,880
just says just waiting for confirmation.

822
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 2: Just waiting for confirmation it's a good one. Or a

823
00:41:28,519 --> 00:41:30,599
shirt of just him winking is a good one.

824
00:41:30,639 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 3: He's one of the guys who could pull off a

825
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:33,960
wink without it feeling creepy, you know what I mean.

826
00:41:34,679 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 2: So it's impressive stuff.

827
00:41:36,639 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 1: Yes, so we have some blind moves in college basketball,

828
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,480
but again, just waiting for conference. We're just just waiting

829
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:46,519
for confirmation. Tennessee has moved from minus eight and a

830
00:41:46,559 --> 00:41:49,119
half all the way up to minus nine and a half.

831
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:54,280
Dayton is taking money. Ralph gave you the breakdown on Louisville.

832
00:41:55,039 --> 00:42:00,519
Miami is taking money on the road against Notre Dame Illinois.

833
00:42:00,559 --> 00:42:03,800
Chicago is taking money against Northern Iowas. If you want

834
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,199
to bet that one, I would get in on that one.

835
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,679
Michigan State has already moved up to seven and a half.

836
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,559
They opened at six or at seven and a half,

837
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,840
So there's a lot of money coming in on that one.

838
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,719
A little bit on Valparaiso and a little bit on

839
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:19,039
Fresno State. That's kind of what I'm seeing there. Let's

840
00:42:19,039 --> 00:42:22,639
do NFL here real quick. Dan thoughts on these these

841
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,880
numbers right here, You've got I mean basically a pick

842
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,320
em in Buffalo Denver?

843
00:42:30,159 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, really one feels about right, you know, and there's

844
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,639
always recency buias with the team that won there.

845
00:42:37,119 --> 00:42:37,519
Speaker 5: Pick them.

846
00:42:37,639 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 3: So you see in at one spy you got Denver

847
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:44,280
one and a half. I can't pick yeah, no, me neither.

848
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,360
And the total also feels right, like for what it's worth,

849
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,320
I would make that game pick them and forty five

850
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:49,880
and a half through forty six and a half, and

851
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,360
that that's what we're seeing. I guess the ones that

852
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,960
feel a little surprising to me. I know that Seattle's

853
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,159
at home, but Mike McDonald and the Seattle Seahawks had

854
00:42:58,199 --> 00:43:01,480
actually fared better against the spread on the road. In

855
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,239
his tenure as they have, especially laying big numbers here

856
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,559
at home, so seeing them north of a touchdown that

857
00:43:07,599 --> 00:43:08,599
feels a bit rich.

858
00:43:08,639 --> 00:43:10,599
Speaker 2: But San Francisco lost George Kittle.

859
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 3: They were already banged up heading into that Eagles game,

860
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:14,920
So I don't want the bias of maybe what we

861
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,159
saw in that game creeping in. But seven and a

862
00:43:17,199 --> 00:43:20,079
half for two teams with some familiarity, that feels a

863
00:43:20,119 --> 00:43:23,000
little bit steep. But you haven't seen really any movement

864
00:43:23,679 --> 00:43:26,039
in any of these games. I think probably the surprising

865
00:43:26,079 --> 00:43:27,519
one and the one that we can talk about as

866
00:43:27,599 --> 00:43:31,039
being an actual opening line is what you're seeing in

867
00:43:31,079 --> 00:43:33,960
New England and Houston. A lot of folks, especially on

868
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,519
the look aheadline, there was some spots that were saying

869
00:43:36,559 --> 00:43:39,199
Houston should be a road favorite against New England, and

870
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:42,360
then what that New England defense did against the Chargers

871
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,079
if you rewatch that Chargers game. However, Justin Herbert was

872
00:43:46,159 --> 00:43:48,199
not good in that football game. I know that he

873
00:43:48,199 --> 00:43:51,280
was getting absolutely he was getting smacked in the second half,

874
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,119
but in the first half, he was holding onto the

875
00:43:53,119 --> 00:43:54,079
ball way too long.

876
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:57,199
Speaker 2: He was missing wide open wide receivers. So does that

877
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:58,519
same thing happen with CJ.

878
00:43:58,599 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 3: Stroud who he didn't look great that week, you know,

879
00:44:02,079 --> 00:44:04,800
last night in that game, but they do enough defensively

880
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,840
to get it done. This one feels like even sitting

881
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:10,880
at forty one, it feels like that total is low

882
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,360
for a reason, Andy, because you saw the cracks in

883
00:44:13,679 --> 00:44:15,679
Drake May when he played off against you know, a

884
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,840
solid defense who has time to prepare. They're arguable playing

885
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,800
the best defense in the NFL this week, So you

886
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,719
know three, making New England the home three favorite. It

887
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,559
makes sense with the weather that total I think is

888
00:44:27,559 --> 00:44:28,360
telling a story.

889
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 1: Well Houston doing it. Both those quarterbacks made some really

890
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:37,039
boneheaded decisions, yes, right, Like that game is really hard

891
00:44:37,039 --> 00:44:40,199
to bet because one or two bad decisions from those

892
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,639
quarterbacks could immediately change that one. That one's that one's

893
00:44:43,679 --> 00:44:47,320
pretty tough. I will say, don't overblow the Kittle injury

894
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,599
toan just is good. Yeah, he's actually been good, actually

895
00:44:50,639 --> 00:44:53,559
really good. He was great when Kittle was out and

896
00:44:53,559 --> 00:44:56,639
by the way, Kittle has been playing banged up like

897
00:44:56,679 --> 00:44:57,360
so he's not a.

898
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 3: Good point really really the entire season, And Bill, I

899
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,960
agree with you. The Texans offense probably doesn't score twenty

900
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:07,599
against New England, but that defense I mean Drake may

901
00:45:07,599 --> 00:45:09,280
had turned the ball over quite a few times. You

902
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,079
turned the ball over on this defense, you're susceptible. They

903
00:45:12,079 --> 00:45:14,880
were going the other way anytime that it's hitting the turf.

904
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,599
So I agree the offense may not be lighting them up,

905
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,760
especially with that cold weather in New England. But the defense,

906
00:45:22,039 --> 00:45:23,800
I mean they could score fourteen themselves.

907
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you got Tom just and as we had

908
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,280
a five percent player on Kyle us check over his

909
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,840
receiving and he's he's he could, He's got good hands,

910
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,119
he can catch, So you know.

911
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 2: No reason to be as good as he is. Does

912
00:45:36,599 --> 00:45:38,719
us check in the receiving game? You know what? Like,

913
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,119
has he ever dropped a pass like in his an

914
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:42,199
entire life?

915
00:45:42,039 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 1: It feels like we're off hands. No, No, it hasn't

916
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:52,599
happened the Rams. So I team of Destiny, I think,

917
00:45:52,639 --> 00:45:55,119
I think you're there's two obvious teams, the teams of

918
00:45:55,119 --> 00:45:57,840
Destiny where everything's falling right for him. One is same

919
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,440
frame and obviously Chicago is the Yeah is the other one.

920
00:46:02,199 --> 00:46:04,679
I will just say I would be terrified at laying

921
00:46:04,679 --> 00:46:09,239
minus three and a half with an LA team with

922
00:46:09,599 --> 00:46:12,440
Matt Stafford in the cold, I would be pretty terrified

923
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:13,159
to lay that, Andy.

924
00:46:13,199 --> 00:46:14,639
Speaker 3: Not only is it going to be cold, like we're

925
00:46:14,639 --> 00:46:18,079
talking about like real feels zero temperatures like it's going

926
00:46:18,159 --> 00:46:22,679
to be. And you got you know, you know the

927
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,760
Hawaiian guy in Puka Nakua feeling good.

928
00:46:26,159 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 2: Uh.

929
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 3: You know DeVante Adams, sure he has some experience playing

930
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,159
in cold, being from Green Bay, that's where his best

931
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:34,239
years were played. But Matt Stafford, I'll have to pull

932
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,159
the numbers and we'll have it for you, Andy. But

933
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,800
I believe you know games under everybody talks about Tua

934
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,079
in the cold, Stafford has a little bit of that

935
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,239
in him as well. Yeah, three and a half four

936
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:49,239
in some spots against his Chicago team. Again, you know,

937
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,280
I want to keep fading Chicago. I just with this number,

938
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:54,239
it's it's Chicago.

939
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 2: Or pass for me.

940
00:46:56,039 --> 00:46:59,639
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I only do props. I don't do

941
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,360
money lends and spreads in the NFL. So that's that's

942
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:03,880
the best.

943
00:47:03,679 --> 00:47:04,559
Speaker 2: Way to build that.

944
00:47:04,639 --> 00:47:07,519
Speaker 3: And these are the sharpest lines you'll see all year long,

945
00:47:07,679 --> 00:47:10,159
you know what I mean? And once worth talking about sharp,

946
00:47:10,199 --> 00:47:15,199
talk about public Every single sharp play got obliterated.

947
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 2: Last week.

948
00:47:16,519 --> 00:47:19,519
Speaker 3: You had the line in the Eagles game outright loss.

949
00:47:19,679 --> 00:47:23,039
You had everyone, oh, lay the ten against the Panthers,

950
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,000
no shot at covering that ten at any point in

951
00:47:26,039 --> 00:47:31,159
that game. Every single sharp play got obliterated. Everybody loved

952
00:47:31,199 --> 00:47:34,679
the Steelers last night, myself included Take the three. They're

953
00:47:34,679 --> 00:47:37,159
live on the money line. Yeah, how did that turn

954
00:47:37,199 --> 00:47:39,960
out so sharp as square? At this time of year,

955
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,639
you're you're obsessing over something that that's moot.

956
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:43,559
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.

957
00:47:46,599 --> 00:47:48,519
Speaker 1: Are you buying this?

958
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:49,199
Speaker 3: Uh?

959
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: Have you seen this story in San Francisco about the

960
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:55,239
players being injured because their facility is next to the

961
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:56,199
electrical grid.

962
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,519
Speaker 3: I mean, Andy, you know me, I love myself a

963
00:47:58,559 --> 00:48:01,599
tinfoil hat. I myself a tinfoil hat.

964
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:02,800
Speaker 2: And I mean for.

965
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,159
Speaker 3: All the injuries that they have stacked up, I don't know.

966
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:10,360
I'm not I'm I'm I'm not completely bashing and saying,

967
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,639
there's no way that the electricity is affecting, you know,

968
00:48:13,679 --> 00:48:16,519
the soft tissue of these players, because maybe where there's smoke,

969
00:48:16,599 --> 00:48:17,119
there's fire.

970
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 2: I don't know.

971
00:48:18,159 --> 00:48:20,639
Speaker 1: So for those that don't know what I'm talking about,

972
00:48:20,679 --> 00:48:23,039
there is And this is real, like this is this

973
00:48:23,079 --> 00:48:25,360
is the thing that there's that a lot of people

974
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,119
are making the case for it that this is a

975
00:48:27,159 --> 00:48:30,079
real thing. So the facility for the forty nine ers

976
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,840
is right next to this huge electrical I don't know

977
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:39,320
what it's called, but this big electrical grid. And they

978
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,159
are making the case that all the electricity is weakening

979
00:48:43,199 --> 00:48:46,840
players muscles and tendons and that's why you're having so

980
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:50,519
many injuries. And they brought this up like a while back. Now,

981
00:48:50,559 --> 00:48:55,679
George Kittle goes out with the Achilles. I need to

982
00:48:55,679 --> 00:48:58,400
see a bunch of scientific evidence. But if you can

983
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:02,760
show you that electrical effect, look at.

984
00:49:02,639 --> 00:49:06,599
Speaker 3: These, that's your scientific evidence. And not no, it's it's

985
00:49:06,639 --> 00:49:08,880
it's at least interesting to uh to bring up your

986
00:49:09,079 --> 00:49:12,800
self substation, okay, right now, right, it's pretty crazy, man,

987
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:14,280
it's pretty wild.

988
00:49:14,519 --> 00:49:15,599
Speaker 1: That's a that's a wild one.

989
00:49:15,639 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 2: So I know, all right, I.

990
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 3: Know I would feel better as a player if we

991
00:49:18,559 --> 00:49:21,280
didn't have an electrical substation next to our field. You know,

992
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,760
whether it's true or not, I would feel better if

993
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:25,119
there wasn't that.

994
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:29,280
Speaker 1: You know what I mean, You're not trying to find

995
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,440
one with an electrical substation exactly.

996
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 2: I'm not saying, you know what, I'm a free agent.

997
00:49:34,159 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 3: I really I think that electrical substation is gonna make

998
00:49:37,039 --> 00:49:37,599
me feel better.

999
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,639
Speaker 2: Let's let's go to San Francisco. I don't know if

1000
00:49:39,639 --> 00:49:41,679
I would be avoiding because of it, Andy, but I

1001
00:49:41,679 --> 00:49:44,119
certainly wouldn't be seeking it out. Definitely doesn't know.

1002
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:47,800
Speaker 1: It's a good point. It's a good point. So all right, Well,

1003
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,880
let's do some free plays and uh give the people

1004
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,280
some props here. I'm going to that Spurs Thunder game.

1005
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,800
Kilton Johnson over one and a half made threes. He's

1006
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,760
on a nice little run over in four straight games.

1007
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:02,960
What I like is the attempts. He's getting five attempts

1008
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,960
per game. And again the Thunder team, they're in a funk.

1009
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:09,559
Jayla Williams finally had a decent game. But this is

1010
00:50:09,599 --> 00:50:12,320
a team that's giving up big points. They need overtime

1011
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,079
to beat Utah. They beat Memphis by one point. So

1012
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:19,480
I'm just I'm just. I'll tell you, Dan, I'll tell

1013
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:23,039
you this on the prop Line, the show the prop Line,

1014
00:50:23,079 --> 00:50:25,239
I do a same game parlay every day. The same

1015
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,880
game parlay was the Spurs money line at plus two

1016
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,519
seventy five with Keldon Johnson to make threes and he

1017
00:50:31,639 --> 00:50:33,519
gets you to five to one, which I just think

1018
00:50:33,599 --> 00:50:38,400
is inmedably. It's an incredible number, don't I don't know

1019
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:40,480
why the Thunder are this big of favorites, but what

1020
00:50:40,559 --> 00:50:43,880
do I know? Let's take an under, a sneaky under

1021
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,960
Canucks senator is Matthew k Chuck under three and a

1022
00:50:47,039 --> 00:50:49,920
half shots on goal? He has not gotten this number

1023
00:50:50,559 --> 00:50:53,360
very often. This is two and eight and this is

1024
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:55,400
just a huge shots on goal number. And when you

1025
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,719
look at him, he's only getting five shots. So he

1026
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,840
needs to be very accurate to get to this four number.

1027
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:02,639
And this is a play that's only hit forty two

1028
00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:05,239
this year. So take a Matthew can Chuck under and

1029
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:08,679
he's gone under in two straight games against Vancouver and

1030
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:11,320
then Warriors Blazers. I had to dig deep for this one.

1031
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,320
Quinton Post over seven and a half points, Dan. If

1032
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:16,159
I would have just said Quinton Post, would you have

1033
00:51:16,159 --> 00:51:17,880
been able to tell me what team he played for?

1034
00:51:18,679 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 3: No shot in hell? I might not have even been

1035
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,480
able to tell you. To sport Andy, So I am.

1036
00:51:22,559 --> 00:51:25,119
I'm very intrigued by a Quinton Post prop.

1037
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 2: So well, he's starting.

1038
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 1: He's starting for the Golden State Warriors. And listen, this

1039
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:34,760
this is why I do what I do and This

1040
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:36,360
is why we do shows like the prop line to

1041
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,840
Dig Deep, because this is how you build your bankroll. Guys,

1042
00:51:39,039 --> 00:51:42,159
you don't build your bank rolls on on NFL spreads.

1043
00:51:42,159 --> 00:51:44,480
You built him by Quinton Post over seven and a

1044
00:51:44,519 --> 00:51:48,639
half points. This guy is sneakily going over this total.

1045
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:53,400
H Let's see what's his number, three straight games and

1046
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,039
five of his last six. Here's the nice thing. He's

1047
00:51:56,079 --> 00:52:01,239
averaging seventeen minutes per game, and he's playing alongside Draymond Green,

1048
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,880
who at any moment could be in foul, trouble or

1049
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:05,519
be thrown out of the game. He's like setting an

1050
00:52:05,559 --> 00:52:09,079
NBA rints thrown thrown out of games, and he gets

1051
00:52:09,119 --> 00:52:11,679
a great matchup. He's starting at center, and I like

1052
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:15,039
Donovan Kling and the starter starting center for Portland, but

1053
00:52:15,199 --> 00:52:17,800
is not very good defensively. Portland rinks twenty fifth in

1054
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:21,079
points allowed to center. So you get Quinton Post who's

1055
00:52:21,119 --> 00:52:22,920
gone over in five out of six. He could get

1056
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,519
an uptick in minutes if Draymond gets in trouble and

1057
00:52:25,639 --> 00:52:27,599
he's going up against a weak defense. So I think

1058
00:52:27,639 --> 00:52:29,440
Quenton Posts over seven and a half points is a

1059
00:52:29,559 --> 00:52:32,880
very very sneaky one, So love it. All right, Dan,

1060
00:52:33,039 --> 00:52:35,039
that's gonna do it. What's your schedule this week? Do

1061
00:52:35,079 --> 00:52:35,320
you know?

1062
00:52:36,599 --> 00:52:38,760
Speaker 3: So Tomorrow we're gonna record bet on It and maybe

1063
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:42,320
a late ad for me. But then Thursday, during this show, Andy,

1064
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,360
I will be in the air heading back east. Friday,

1065
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:48,519
we will be uh moving some things around as well.

1066
00:52:48,599 --> 00:52:50,599
Speaker 2: So I for certain we'll be back with you a

1067
00:52:50,639 --> 00:52:52,199
full week Monday.

1068
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:54,559
Speaker 3: Hopefully I get to see you tomorrow, but Thursday and

1069
00:52:54,599 --> 00:52:56,360
Friday I will not be with you.

1070
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:57,159
Speaker 2: Unfortunately.

1071
00:52:58,639 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 1: AWB has a physics degree. Oh says it's likely. But

1072
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:06,519
once players latch onto theory, it's over that. Honestly, that's

1073
00:53:06,519 --> 00:53:10,000
a really good point. Once it's in your head. If

1074
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:14,360
you're a player, it's over. Doesn't it No different than

1075
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:14,920
the yips?

1076
00:53:15,079 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you're You're right.

1077
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,159
Speaker 1: If I'm playing sports and a bunch of teammates get

1078
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,320
hurt and then somebody's like, hey, it's from the power grid.

1079
00:53:21,639 --> 00:53:28,159
Every time I have a little ache, it's just automatically liked.

1080
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:29,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, it's gotta be.

1081
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:31,760
Speaker 1: It's gotta be s all right, Well, re leaving, please

1082
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,000
hit the like button. It only takes a second your time.

1083
00:53:34,039 --> 00:53:36,719
It really really helps us out, uh leave in the

1084
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:39,440
comment section your best bet for today. Appreciate you guys,

1085
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:41,639
and also you can win a free three day pass.

1086
00:53:41,679 --> 00:53:44,719
Put Andy if you think I was gonna cover with

1087
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:46,320
your wager talk user name.

1088
00:53:46,159 --> 00:53:46,760
Speaker 2: Put Jesse.

1089
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: If you think Miami's gonna cover with your wagers.

1090
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:50,480
Speaker 2: And he said that's.

1091
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,679
Speaker 3: The first half, Andy, I believe the first half five

1092
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:54,079
and a half.

1093
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, he wants the first half five and a half.

1094
00:53:56,639 --> 00:53:58,400
Speaker 2: I think he's scared. I think he's scared.

1095
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:00,519
Speaker 3: I think that's why he changed the first I would

1096
00:54:00,599 --> 00:54:02,519
never say while Jesse was here.

1097
00:54:02,599 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 2: Actually I probably would, but I think he.

1098
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 3: Was scared because because he was initially making a case

1099
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:09,559
for the full game, and then he back pedaled a

1100
00:54:09,599 --> 00:54:09,920
little bit.

1101
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:11,840
Speaker 2: So I smell fear. So comment below.

1102
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:14,239
Speaker 3: If you think five and a half Miami can cover

1103
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,159
in the first half, write Jesse. If you think five

1104
00:54:17,199 --> 00:54:20,199
and a half Indiana will cover early and cover late,

1105
00:54:20,519 --> 00:54:23,360
comment below Andy, and then Tuesday.

1106
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:27,239
Speaker 2: We'll let you know who wins that free three day Ernest.

1107
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 1: Put it in the comments. We're getting ready to end

1108
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:30,840
the show. Put it in the comments section. That way

1109
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,280
we have it, and Ernest, make sure you do it,

1110
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:35,400
because I don't think there's gonna be very many people

1111
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:39,719
that type Jesse for this pig, so there could be.

1112
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:40,760
Speaker 2: A lot of Andy's in there.

1113
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:44,760
Speaker 1: So all right, comment yes, thank you very much, guys.

1114
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:47,920
Dan and I will hopefully be back tomorrow and then

1115
00:54:48,199 --> 00:54:49,719
we'll bring him home for the rest of the week.

1116
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,639
Speaker 3: Dan uh both teams to score, just hit Andy, both

1117
00:54:52,639 --> 00:54:53,719
teams to score.

1118
00:54:53,719 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 2: Cash watching bang out as we leave the show.

1119
00:55:00,079 --> 00:55:03,280
Speaker 3: Where's the WTF commenters? Where are you at? Where are

1120
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:05,079
you at?

1121
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,880
Speaker 2: Six minute? Andy? Let's go, baby, That's how we ended.

1122
00:55:09,559 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 5: Let's go.

1123
00:55:10,119 --> 00:55:13,519
Speaker 1: You didn't everyone loves you? You didn't have any WTF comments.

1124
00:55:13,559 --> 00:55:14,440
I don't think anybody.

1125
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,599
Speaker 2: Oh there were some. There were here. I'll scroll up.

1126
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:19,079
Speaker 3: Since we got a little time before the golf show,

1127
00:55:19,079 --> 00:55:20,719
you and I are recording, I gotta scroll all the.

1128
00:55:20,679 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 1: Way up in the beget really doubt Dan on the WTF.

1129
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:28,639
Speaker 3: I was actually had WTF and then maxt w TF,

1130
00:55:28,639 --> 00:55:33,280
this hasn't hitten their last five head to head. Then

1131
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:40,920
we go so so unfortunately the the wtf's greatly greatly demised.

1132
00:55:40,559 --> 00:55:44,599
Speaker 2: Cash that plus one ninety. We're feeling good. Let's go.

1133
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:48,400
Speaker 1: Let's have a big Tuesday. Four percent NBA players up,

1134
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:50,679
Good luck on all your bets we'll say over and tomorrow,

1135
00:55:50,719 --> 00:55:51,079
take care