Speaker 1: Welcome to the Blitz.
Speaker 2: Free plays for Week four in college football coming right up.
If you are watching us live here on the wage
to Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now.
Any game you want us to talk about, we will
do so. All you have to do is ask. I'll
let you know right now we are definitely talking about
all the big games on Saturday. That includes Florida versus Miami,
South Carolina versus Missouri, Auburn versus Oklahoma, Texas Tech versus Utah,
and Illinois versus Indiana. Of course, here to help me
do so, two of the greats here at wager talk
dot Com, Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin And as a
special treat guys, at the end of the show, we're
gonna be doing this every week starting today, all three
of us we'll be giving out a special free play,
so stay tuned for that. Ross, let's get it going.
Florida versus Miami. A lot of people bet on Florida
last week. I was one of them, grab plus seven
and a half Gators closed plus four and a half
at LSU, But all I ended up with was a
nice shiny closing lot I Value Trophy quarterback DJ Lagway,
apparently unaware that you're not supposed to throw the ball
to the other team, five interceptions, one of which was
returned for a TV in a twenty to ten loss.
My question to you is this, do we come back
with the Gators this week getting seven and a half
or is this a case of a team that is
simply not going to be able to put things together
under Billy Napier?
Speaker 3: You know, by all rights, the way I usually think is,
you know, when you see a team that's just seven
and a half off back to back losses, in losing
to a common opponent that the team they're going to
face blew out the week before, you would think the
conventional wisdom would say to take Miami. So I usually
look for a contrary and approach. But Dan, I just
couldn't do it here. You know, I just think Miami
is the real deal Florida. Look, they struggled offensively, They
turned the ball over not only a two game losing streat,
but six turnovers in those two games Miami plus four
on the season. And that, like I said, that own
it South Florida, who Florida lost to at home. Miami
just annihilated him last week forty seven to twelve, covering
as a seventeen point favorite, running up five hundred and
seventy six yards of total offense. And you know what,
I just don't see Miami of Florida having a flat
spot here because it's not like they're gonna take Florida lightly.
It's their in state rival. And just reminding folks, I
also usually like to use the revenge factor, but you
know what, Miami last year with cam Ward went down
to Gainesville and blew them out forty one seventeen, and
that game wasn't even as close to the final score
may indicate, as they all gained them by over two
hundred yards in that game. I just think we're gonna
see more of the same here, Brian. I'm gonna take
the Miami of Florida Hurricanes here. I hate to have
that hook on the seven, but it only matters if
they win by seven or less. So I'm gonna take
Miami here to cover the spread here against the Florida Gators.
Speaker 2: Ralph, let's bring you in now and look this Florida defense.
They had to be No one had to be more
upset with Lagway's performance last week than his own defense,
because this is a defense, guys that's given up one
touchdown all year and they've lost two games. I mean,
my word, what do you say, Ralph? Is this a
situation where Florida under Napier isn't fixable that they know?
Maybe it's a let The players are starting to feel
it's a lame duck coach, It's a lame duck operation here.
Speaker 1: How do you approach this all floridaavntion?
Speaker 4: So you're saying the Florida Gators are comparable to our
Cleveland Browns, all defense.
Speaker 1: No offense, yes, exactly.
Speaker 4: Your stat profile is amazing, and yet you're losing games.
So you know you mentioned Florida's defense giving up one touchdown.
I am actually more impressed about the unit on Miami
that no one talks about their defense. You know, when
when it's early in the season like this, it's tough
to quantify how good a team is, you know, because
Notre Dame that only played two games and you played
Bethune Cookman and USF was in a bad scheduling spot.
But when I look at Miami stat profile, they held
Notre Dame to one hundred fifteen yards under their their
season average. They held Bethune Cookman to one hundred and
fifty five yards under their season average, they held USF
to fifty yards under their season average, and they held
all three opponents to a season low. So I am
very strong on those season low facts. You know, you
look at Florida last week. Obviously we talked about being
three turnovers, four turnovers, five turnovers, you're not gonna win
a game. They finished with a three sixty six to
three sixteen yard edge. But that can be misleading because
if you keep turning the ball over the offense, doesn't
the opposite offense be At the LSU offense didn't have
opportunities to take long drives. They didn't need to because
they would score those short scores. But I'm gonna say this,
you know, with Florida off those five interceptions, you know
they're gonna try to run the ball more. They threw
the ball forty nine times last week and only ran
the ball twenty seven times. I think they are gonna
try to run more. I think Miami's rush defense can
slow down that rush offense. I think Miami's pass defense
can slow it down. I like the Florida team total
under again. I've been wrong with Florida. I was with
you on the LSU side against USF. I leaned with him.
So sometimes when you go back to back to the
well and you lost both, you're just gunge guy to
go back to a third time. But I think I
do think they'll be a lower scoring game, even though
Miami's got the potent offense. I think you see the
defense rise to the occasion. Again.
Speaker 2: I like the under and I like the Florida team
total under. Okay, there you have it, Florida Miami. A
couple of breakdowns for you there. I'm seeing some questions
roll in here in the chat. Remember, guys, if you
watch the show live every week, and we of course
go live every Thursday right after anything on Wadge Talk today,
you can ask about the weekday game as well, and
we talk about coaches under the hot seat.
Speaker 1: I think Mike Gundy may not be long for the
world and still water.
Speaker 2: He has had a fine careerching Oklahoma State, but I
think we all assume is coming to an end. In
State coach team Welph and Rolston has gotten a lot
of money the last two weeks, and that money has
been wrong. So I'm going to open this up to
either of you that want to jump in here, Goldie Hurricane,
We've got a question from Adam, one of our top
viewers here on the program. Is Tulsa still worth squeezing
at plus eleven and a half?
Speaker 3: This is a game that I'm just going to stay
away from. There's a hell of a lot better value
on the board in this one. Oklahoma State a wreck
right now, Mike Gundhy on the hot seat, and who
would have thought we would be saying that two years ago.
But in any event, Tulsa is a team that can
put put up good offensive numbers, and I think they
will against Oklahoma State, but can they stop anybody? I mean,
last week they got off to a great start against Navy,
jumping up fourteen nothing, and then they gave up I
think forty three unanswered points after that. So if you
look at their resume right now, their defense has left
a lot to be desired. I might have a slight
lean toward going over the total in this game, but
fifty four and a half, But either side, I'd be
hard pressed to make a pick here.
Speaker 2: Brian, Oklahoma State Guys has not covered a point spread
since October eighteenth of last season.
Speaker 1: That is not good.
Speaker 2: If you've been back in the popes there, Ralph, I
don't know if you had anything on that game. If not,
we have more questions here on North Texas and Army.
I know that's a game that I have a comment on,
But go ahead, Ralph.
Speaker 4: I'm wearing orange, buddy. What do you think you come on?
Gohost centers to Joe Ranieri paid me a dollar to
make sure that I wore his Oklahoma State colors here
on the show. I'll tell you what Oklahoma State looks
like a train wreck. He's on the hottest seat. But
let's remember this. They beat you t martin twenty seven
to seven. They had one hundred and forty yard edge
and they only played one other game, and it could
be one of the best teams in the country. So
there's times when you go on the road to Oregon
and you start getting you start getting motor voted. It
just keeps going and going and going, and the game
just turns out to a blowout. You're not worried about it.
I think I think Oklahoma, this is not a Florida
where I had to put up and shut up and
we got burned on it. They've only lost one game.
I think they actually bounced back. I lean with them,
but without knowing how the locker room goes, I couldn't
bet him with your money, Brian, So I leaned Oklahoma State.
I do not have the guts to actually bet them
myself or give them out for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The last time Oklahoma State one, I believe, was against
Tulsa last year or so. We shall see North Texas Army.
This is a very interesting noon eastern kickoff on Saturday.
Adam wants to know about it. I was on North
Texas last Saturday. I joked immediately after the game was over.
You don't want to say this as a handicap, right, No, guys,
But I don't know if I'm gonna have a better
bet the rest of the season than what I had
with North Texas last Saturday. Washington State just kept turning
the ball over, and I was like, oh man, even
if we just get a field more out of this,
I'd be great. North Texas just kept scoring touchdowns after
every turnover the first half. They win going away fifty
nine to ten. I thought odds makers had a terrible
mistake opening North Texas as an underdog in this game,
the market jumped all over it. North Texas has been
met to a favorite. Now it is a service academy.
Ralph off of Bye, I don't know if you have
any trends on that offhand. I know I'll put you
on the spot. But already off of Bye, that Kansas
State win obviously doesn't look as great as it did
at the time, given the state of Chris Climban's team.
But what do you think North Texas? Is there something
real here or is it sell high in West Point?
Speaker 4: Okay? Well, Lamar's an FCS team. Western Michigan's defense is
a joke and Washington State's defense as a joke. And
you won fifty nine to ten because you were plus
five turnovers. So again, I don't think they've been tested.
That scares the hell out of me for them to
go on the road. Remember they went to Western Michigan
as a sizable favorite and only and only won that
game thirty three to thirty. And they allowed Western Michigan
to run fifty seven times for two hundred and sixteen yards.
And to me, I look at it, they were down
seventeen to seven against Western Michigan and only had one
hundred and one yards in the first half, so they
were completely outplayed. I think Army is such a discipline team.
They don't allow sacks, the defense is solid. I actually
like I actually like Army here in this situation.
Speaker 3: Brian.
Speaker 4: While Ross is talking, maybe start the next game with
him as well. That gives me the two halves. I'll
run to the database to see if I could pull
off the service academies off a by and hopefully I
have that for You can't guarantee it. I'm a little
bit in a fog today, but I'll give it my best.
Speaker 1: All right, That's all we asked rough as always giving
this mess.
Speaker 2: What do you think Ross? Ralph says that not only
is he does he not think there's any value in
North Texas. Now that they flip to a favorite, he
takes the values on the other side with Army.
Speaker 3: Wait a minute, Ralph, I know you're in a fac
but Army allows the least one of the least amount
of six In college football, he passed about four times
a game. Roof Come on, Ross, they have passed twenty
eight times in two games.
Speaker 4: So it's losing itself.
Speaker 3: But it's it's not the paring it go ahead.
Speaker 4: I do appreciate that ross and and that's a good
thing for our followers to view. Sack percentage is much
more important and offensive and defensive sacks because if you're
playing options, you're not gonna have those. So I always
look at sack percentages. I just didn't have that number
in front of me, but I was shocked. You know,
they threw eight of sixteen against Tarlington, then they improved
eight against twelve against Kansas State. Now, let's remember if
you're running for over two hundred yards that and all
of a sudden, the pass opportunity is better for you
and you're gonna be able to run some play action
when they stop the line. So I don't think North Texas,
even though I probably I have North Texas power rated
semi close to Kansas State. Now after I keep dropping
down Kansas State, the talent on Kansas State's defense is
still superior to the being Green.
Speaker 3: Yeah, good points, Broph. And again, it wouldn't be a
show unless they gave you a hard time at some
point in any event. Yeah, every time you think you
got things figured out in college football, Army loses their
opening game at home to Tarlington, State, a FCS school.
They lose in overtime. They go on the road at
Kansas State, a team that was one of the favorites
before the season began to win the Big twelve, and
they win the game on the road is a seventeen
point dog North Texas. Like you said, they looked awfully
good last week, but they were the beneficiary of a
lot of turnovers against the Washington State team. Quite frankly,
I think was overvalued because of their win versus San
Diego State the game before. But this is a game
I'm staying away from. You know, in terms of a
service academy having to buy, Let's not forget, folks, this
isn't a normal school having to buy. Service academies still
have to go through the regiment every day, getting up
at five in the morning, going to school, and then
still attending meetings for football too as well. So it's
a little different a service academy coming off of buy
because it's nothing really out of the ordinary for them
as opposed to other than the fact that you know,
the physical gives them a time to heal from other
bumps and bruises. But game, I just don't like this game.
Brian even give a strong opinion on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I don't know.
Speaker 2: I guess maybe the longest short of it is if
you if you bet North Texas on the opener, you've
got a nice closing line value trophy that hopefully isn't
all you got. But yeah, I don't know I will
when when would the line flips like that? I tend
to stay away. So Thomas, yes, I see your question there.
We're going to get to you a couple big ten
matchups Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Adam, I know you've got
another question Boise State and Air Force.
Speaker 1: Ralph, I believe you have found something.
Speaker 4: I do when I excluded game twelve to take the
Army Navy out of it. So when teams have a
buy since twenty fourteen, that's Army, Navy or Air Force,
they are actually twenty five and twenty seven against the
spread forty eight point one percent, so not really what
you expect. And in fact two four, six, five, five,
six by seven FA and I five have about five
and twelve their last seventeen games going back to twenty
twenty two, so not quite what we thought would be
a positive. But as as Ross said, you know, while
other teams are resting and mentally relaxing during buys where
you can work on your team. They still have their
normal routines that they have to do day in and
day out, so a little different than other teams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a great point. I thought, they're thank
you for the stat Ralph, and that was a great
point that you made ross about how these are you know,
obviously a little bit of a different college experience when
you're an Army, Navy, and Air Force than me. If
he gave me a week off of something, I guarantee
you I wasn't getting up at five in the morning.
Speaker 1: South Carolina and Missouri.
Speaker 2: I think South Carolina didn't matter what time they got
up on Saturday.
Speaker 1: It was not a good time.
Speaker 2: Against Vanderbilt from the clips that aged well departments. We
tweeted this one out after the show last week.
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt was my best bet last Saturday, and that looked
really good.
Speaker 2: They went to Columbia and I said, I called South
Carolina most overrated team in the country. Now, they lost
their quarterback Sellers, but Vandy wins that came thirty one
to seven. Not only do I think South Carolina is
going to probably miss a Bowl this year, And obviously
a lot of this is contingent on Seller's health. But
I think South Carolina's live to finish last in the SEC.
And here's a team now ross that was number eleven
in the country and they're now getting double digits on
the road against Missouri this week. This is a tough
game to handygap when you were not one hundred percent
certain on Seller's health. But what do you think is
this South Carolina tea? You know, you all you were
kind of alluding to earlier. I'm on the same way.
I think Ralph is too by low, right, but I
don't know if this is a by low situation on
the game Cocks, I'm cell sell sell on this team
and they'll further notice.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean last week we were right on this.
You know, they were also on my card and my
premium card. I had Vanderbilt, and I think I stated
on the show that after witnessing what they've done at
this point both teams, I thought Vanderbilt was the better
team in a matchup, even though they were an underdog.
And how we should trust the bookmakers rather than the
people who vote in the polls, you know, and certainly
that all came to fruition. Look, Sellers is questionable to
play this week. But you know, Brian, they haven't done
anything when he has been healthy. You know, this is
a team that's averaging less than three hundred yards of
total offense per game. They were dominated, in my opinion,
by Vanderbilt. That game was never in jeopardy in terms
of having the underdog, let alone the straight up win
and against Missouri team that's off to a great start.
And again you go from being number eleven in the
country one week to being a ten and a half
point underdog the next week. That tells me a lot,
and it tells me what the odds makers are thinking.
And I certainly would not take the underdog in this case.
I would have a small lean toward the favorite. But
I'm not sure this is a game that I'm going
to use.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Ralph?
Speaker 2: Is this a falling knife that you will let hit
the ground rather than try to catch it? That being
South Carolina certainly a team that has more questions than
answers right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and let's remember, I mean at halftime last week
it was fourteen seven and they actually had a one
sixty nine to one sixty two yard edge. So it's
always easier to remember what happened down the stretch when
when you know that score got extended and you know
they had a play where it would likely have been
a touchdown that got called back because of the penalty,
might have changed the whole dynamic of the game. So
but I'll tell you what, I have multiple check marks
next to Missouri. I love what Drinkwood is saying. I
love the enthusiasm of the team. I love the offensive
and defensive cohesiveness. Listen to this. They against their three opponents,
they have had a season high against all three on offense,
they've had a season high all three on defense. And
to me, they're statistically the best team in college football
when you have a defense that you're holding opponents to
three point four yards per carry and under fifty percent completions,
with an offense that has shown they can move the ball.
They've granted, Kansas and Louisiana are not South Carolina's defense,
but that defense up for the Gamecock is also banged up.
To me, I would look Missouri or I would look
Missouri team total not getting to the window with it.
I will say this, even though you know, we have
said that Sellers hasn't done much. The bookmakers basically are
telling you that he is one of the most important
quarterbacks to his team. With how much this moved with
him being questionable, you know, normally it's like a two
or three point difference. Some say this is almost a
nine or ten point difference from him being in and
him being out. So the bookmakers still love him, the
sharp still love him, but our eye tests all three
of us agree we don't love them currently in this
current form.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: We are talked earlier about Oklahoma State how they've bankrupted
their backers guys. Well, Missouri quite the opposite. I believe
they have the longest ATS win streak in the country
right now, eight in a row going back to the
end of last season. So they're cash tickets in Columbia
Missouri Ross.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just a a real quick note. Keep an eye
on this Vanderbilt team is I'm glad that Rolf brought
that up. There was pretty even at the half in
terms of total yardage. That's two weeks in a row
now that Vanderbilt has had monster second halfs after being
involved in close first half. So keep that in mind
going forward for us.
Speaker 4: A little live live betting at the head.
Speaker 3: Yeah, live betting. And you know it's to me is
if the team gets stronger as the game goes on.
You can't ignore that when handicapping the game, Rolf, you know.
Speaker 4: Yeah, especially if you're a Vanderbilt fan and let's say
they just didn't make your card, but they were very close.
Those are the situations that I don't live betty game
unless I'm watching it because there's so much that goes on.
You can't just say old quarterback that hurt and automatically
live that, dad, But I do those three or four
teams that are in my gray area that just missed
being a client release. You want us to stop the show, Brian,
you want to get that or no, I'm all right,
sorry about that unbelivable. Yes, I do hope think I
got that in time.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: One thing to look at is if you're watching the
games and they're on your own almost made it list,
if they give up a cheap touchdown early, like on
a special teams where if the team didn't drive down,
I'll usually go back in and live bet those teams
I like and a much better line because they gave
up a cheap touchdown. Now, if someone drives right down
the field and scores a twelve play drive, that's a
different scenario. But if it's the fluke pick six or
one player broke a run or a special team's touchdown,
I look to bet those live situations very often.
Speaker 3: Yeah, before before you start, MF and us when we
use Vanderbilt in the future. Wait, they play sixty minutes
in a game anyway, Go ahead.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a.
Speaker 3: Mother, I don't know, help me out.
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you. There, I'll let you know.
Speaker 2: Whatever Clark Lee's saying at halftime, guys, is working for Vanderbilt,
because that is a good point.
Speaker 1: Yes, back to back weeks.
Speaker 2: Not only do they dominate South Carolina in the second
half last Saturday, the previous week, you're actually losing the
Virginia Tech at the half and came roaring back dominated
a Hochey's team that has obviously now fired its head coach. Guys,
those questions coming, by the way in the chat, I
see a lot of them there.
Speaker 1: We're going to get to all of those games. Ralphie
had something.
Speaker 4: Second. I don't mean to keep pounding the Vanderbilt story in,
but I'll tell you what a slow start for a
team who was a dog being a little brother going
to SEC teams quite different when they become a favorite
coming up and they have the pressure on them, So
keep an eye when that swaps and they actually become
the hunted instead of the hunter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but they still they still are finishing strong. Rulph.
I appreciate what you're saying. And we'll see. I mean,
you might have a very good point. We'll see. Maybe
maybe maybe.
Speaker 4: We compromise roths and we say fade Vanderbilt as a
favor first half.
Speaker 1: Their big favorites this week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's see what happens. I'm not saying I'm going
to use Vanderbilt this week because I don't lay that
kind of number off a team off two big wins
with which they were underdogs.
Speaker 2: So and they've been so great as the underug with
pobvious since poly transferred. And that's that's the role typically
evil on a Vandy. And let's talk about a top
twenty five game here Auburn and Oklahoma. Ralph, I'm gonna
come to you on this. I don't have a take
on the side at all in this game. I think
these are two teams on the scent in twenty twenty five.
The total has caught my eye. It's caught I know
a lot of better's eyes as well. We've seen some
under money come in here, and I know the two
quarterbacks Matier and Arnold have been great. But this Oklahoma
defense has allowed just one touchdown in three games, number
one in defensive EPA for play in the country twenty
one point four percent allowed on third and fourth down
under Zer, combining five and one.
Speaker 1: Between these two teams. Auburn over all.
Speaker 2: The defense hasn't been as good, but they have been
outstanding against the run, number one in success rate in
the country against the run. So what do you see
here as Auburn takes on Oklahoma in a big SEC matchup?
Speaker 4: Well, how about this? We like to celebrate things that
we do well. I can. When it comes to Auburn football,
I do it poorly. I didn't like him against Baylor,
didn't like him against Ball State, leave with him against
southak So I have not been right on Auburn at all.
And there's times like that where those teams just are there.
And really, if I say, okay, I like Oklahoma here
and Auburn impresses me again.
Speaker 3: This week.
Speaker 4: There are just times that I put teams to the
side and will likely not use them. I mean, you
just gotta admit when you can't read a team, and
there's enough value in college football with the other one
hundred and thirty five plus teams that if you find
that situation. So Auburn's one of them for me. But
you know my standpoint, when you have these kind of
big games with two undefeated SEC teams and two defenses
that have had statistical profiles, I think they're going to
be conservative. You might be able to say, you know,
you talked about you talked about Matier being great. I mean, yeah,
he's got nine hundred plus yards and a nine point
zero YPA, but he does only have a five to
three racetio. That's a little bit concerning for me to
have to throw those three. You know, we're on the
Auburn side. You know you have a four to zero
ratio for Jackson Arnold. Oh yeah, who.
Speaker 2: By the way, I guess there's a DC over in
Oklahoma that probably knows some of Jackson Arnold's tendencies.
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go under first half. You know, when
we play these first conference games with this mentality with
two undefeated teams, I think coaches come out with a
conservative first half approach.
Speaker 2: Under first half for me, yes, obviously Jackson Arnold transferred
from Oklahoma to auburns out.
Speaker 1: You know Venables knows that. Ross.
Speaker 2: I know you have your take on that game coming
up at the end of the show that will be.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: One quick point though, before I get had analysis and pick.
Ralph makes a good point. There's times that I run
through the same thing, Ralph, where there's a team you
just can't get a good read on. They failed for
you when you back them, you go against them and
they win. They come up with a big effort, and
at that point it's always smart to sit back and say, okay,
let me take a lease of three or four week
break on this team and go back to them if
the situation presents itself so real good thing, folks, because
sometimes you may be guilty of using the same team
two weeks in the row at lost and you may
be seeing something in the team that nobody else is
or isn't there, and then when you go against them,
it sometimes it's just a matter of some your emotion
gets it away and say they've let me down two
weeks in a row. They're terrible and won and beholding.
They bite you in the behind, so be real careful
in those situations, folks.
Speaker 1: Okay, there we got a little word of warding.
Speaker 2: And again Boss is going to have a free play
on that game coming up at the end of the program.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna throw it to you this question to
you now.
Speaker 2: Ross Jacob Hefner wants to know, in what world should
Wisconsin be a ten point favor?
Speaker 1: Are we hammering Maryland? He wants to know sprinkling even
a little bit on the money line.
Speaker 2: I will say Mike Loxley's reputation in Big Ten play,
particularly on the road, is not stellar since he came to.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Mike Loxley since he's took over at Maryland,
they always seem to get off to these good starts
against FCS schools and teams that they outclass, and then
they get into the Big Ten schedule, especially on the road,
and they're not very good. Wisconsin's This isn't the same
Wisconsin teams that we've been our team, I should say
that we've been used to seeing in the past. However,
I mean, I had Alabama last week against them. You know,
you got to give Wisconsin a little bit of excuse.
It's a much better Alabama team than they showed in
their season opener, and they were up against it in Tuscaloosa.
But you know, they fought hard at the end and
they actually you know, put me on a little bit
of pins and needles and almost covering that twenty one
point underdog role. But this is a game. Look, I'm
just gonna sit and watch. I can't make heads or
tails of this. I don't trust Wisconsin and I don't
trust Maryland when to get into big play, especially like
Brian alluded to under road.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ralph, not to steal your gimmick here, but I've
got some numbers we can put behind the Locksley struggles.
Loxley at Maryland, he's eleven and twenty one straight up
on the road, and he's six and fourteen ats as
an away dog. Is the Wisconsin struggles under Luke Fickele,
Is that enough, as Jacob alluded to, our common or
is that enough to actually entice you with this Maryland team,
because the reputation isn't good Like rossat Well.
Speaker 4: I looked up while you guys were talking, Luke fickel
off a loss. He is actually only two and six
atis going back to November twenty twenty three, and his
one cover was at Oregon as a thirteen and a
half point dog. They lost that game outright. His other
cover was against Purdue at home that he did win
fifty two to six as an eleven and a half
point favorite. This is one of those games, Brian, where
I don't trust Wisconsin and their offense to lay this
kind of points. I don't try us Maryland to back
the dog. So is an easy one for me to
throw out on my list early in the week.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. It's a tough one to call, guys.
Speaker 2: I know that some of you don't think that Wisconsin
land that number, but again, Maryland's reputation precedes itself.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what we've got going on.
Speaker 2: This weekend game, because obviously it is another big weekend
at wager talk dot com. That weekend Warrior Pass is
available for all three of us, Ross Ralph and myself.
It's just forty nine dollars, guys to get all of
your favorite handicappers football plays for the weekend, and we're
throwing in Monday Night football as well, that's Saturday, Sunday
and Monday from any handicapper. You can get it from
all three of us. Forty nine dollars each. A great deal.
Speaker 1: Ross. What do you got cooking up at the website?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll have a five percent best bet again in
college football on Saturday, and that's thirty five dollars. So
to Brian's point, you can get everything else that I
put on just by spending an additional fourteen dollars if
you're just thinking about buying my five percent best bet
college football four and oh sweep last week. Brian pretty
happy with that. Now up to ten and five on
the year, up a little over eighteen units college football
last year number one in unit turn number one, and
win percentage college football since twenty twenty three, number one
in units turn. So college football has been very very
good to me. Eight and four overall with all my
football picks last weekend, forty nine dollars for any one
of us is an absolute steal for Saturday, Sunday and
Monday in college football in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Absolutely is.
Speaker 2: I mentioned my best bet last Saturday was on Vanderbilt.
They did not need the three and a half points
beating South Carolina outright. It was my second straight three
and one Saturday in college football, sets six and two
the last two Saturdays, and we also hit a five
percent play in the NFL, my first five percent play
in the NFL this year. The Atlanta Falcons another team
that did not need the three and a half points
as they won twenty two to six over the Minnesota
bi Ralph How about you, let's talk about what you've
got going on right now for the weekend here at
college and NFL again that Weekend Warrior pass.
Speaker 1: It covers both.
Speaker 4: I haven't I'm into my college football card, not sure
what I'm going to have. I do know I'm going
to have another five percent NFL teaser. I won last
week's and since the end of twenty twenty three, I've
had six NFL five percent perfect six and oh my
teasers rated four percent or five percent, eight and fifteen
and one ninety four percent. I'll have a five percent loaded.
And the best part of the Weekend Warrior is as
soon as we load these plays, you get notified immediately,
So don't wait until Saturday morning to sign up. Sign
up today and as soon as any of us load
their plays, you'll get that email and you'll be able
to bet them at the lines we want you to
bet them at and not losing any value. So very
different than waiting to the weekend to take advantage of
the special do it today.
Speaker 1: Absolutely well said there, Ralph. Let's get to some of
these questions here in the chat.
Speaker 2: We just had one coming in Clemson minus seventeen's still
out there, obviously, Clemson, it has been a disappointing season
in Death Valley, a tough loss last Saturday down in
Atlanta to Georgia Tech. You you guys want to lay
the points here with Clemson. I know old Dabos got
more questions than questions than answers right now.
Speaker 3: I certainly don't. You know. Clemson not only last week's
disappointing loss, they lose their season opener at home to LSU.
Not going to be embarrassed of then, and then it
should have been a warning sign to everybody. The following
week they played Troy and they're down sixteen to nothing,
have to Rarey to win twenty seven to sixteen, not
even coming close to covering. Now Syracuse has beaten two
cream Puffs, right, and they needed overtime to beat Yukon
last week sixty six points against Colgate, who plays at
the FCS level, and they did open against Tennessee and
they were all class in that game, four six. But
one common theme here that on the side of positivity
for the Oranges, Steve Angelly has really performed well. The
transfer quarterback that came over from Notre Dame, has thrown
for over one thousand yards in his first three games,
completed sixty four percent of his passes, eight touchdowns of
two interceptions. Syracuse is their wide receiver group is very talented. Now,
whether they could stop Clemson is is another thing, but
I guess that could be a positive note too, because
Clemson's really struggled offensively, and you know, Kate Klubnick, who
everybody was touting, not everybody, but a lot of people
were touting for the Heisman Trophy before the season started,
has been a real disappointment as a six year senior.
So you know, this is a game I think Syracuse
State does enough to stay inside the number, and also
a game because of the way they can move the
ball in the air, you might be able to be
a beneficiary of a backdoor cover well, so I would
have a small lean towards Syracuse here plus the seventeen
and a half against Clemson.
Speaker 1: All right, Ralph, I don't know what the trends say.
Speaker 2: I could say that the eyes say you don't really
want to bet a team that has not played a
good game out of three. Yet, as Ross mentioned, not
only does Clemson have the two losses they had, they
laid an egg in the first half against Troy in between.
Any thoughts for you on this one? Is Dabbo going
to be able to rally the truths here?
Speaker 4: I down the spect Well, let's look at Syracuse. You know,
as you guys said, against Tennessee, they were outclassed. And
then remember against Yukon they trailed by what two touchdowns
in the fourth quarter and needed to come back and
win that game in overtime. You know, they had a
four to sixty one, four sixteen yard edge. But again,
when you're playing Connecticut at home as a double did
a favorite, that's not the kind of response you want
to me. Ross talked about Syracuse maybe getting the back
door cover. You look at Clemson and I thought they'd
be able to get significant pass rush. They only had
one sack against LSU. They only had one sack against
Georgia Tech, and this is the Saint Georgia Tech team
that runs ninety percent of the time. And oh yeah,
by the way, they're allowing sixty nine point four percent completions.
Those are like more like ten State numbers than Clemson numbers.
I like the over I think cleb Nick will get
it straightened out. I think you have enough experience. But
if you're gonna say, well, you know, Clemson's gonna bounce
back after those two losses. I looked back at last year.
You know, they lost to Louisville thirty three to twenty one.
They went to Virginia Tech the next week and they
only won by ten points, twenty four to fourteen. Then
they lost to South Carolina seventeen to fourteen, and eked
out a win against SMU thirty four to thirty one.
So we think about Dabble as this great motivator and
could get his kids ready, but coming off a loss,
he hasn't done that. I do like the over here.
Speaker 1: Though, Okay, a lot of questions coming in here.
Speaker 2: We have one.
Speaker 1: We talked about service academies.
Speaker 2: Serve one Service Academy earlier Army and their game Army
of course off a bye hosting North Texas at noon Eastern.
Well later on Saturday, we have Air four as a
home dog and Ralph their hope.
Speaker 1: They lost outright as.
Speaker 2: A road favorite last week to the Air Force, now
getting points against a rested Boise State team whose first
impression we all remember it was that outright loss to
South Florida. That was a situation where turnovers told the story.
In that game, total yardage was relatively even despite the
lopsided score, and there was a South Florida ran that
trick phunt that I can't believe Boise State was asleep
at the wheel for. But Adam says he thinks this
line should be much higher than ten and a half.
He thinks Boise State rocks air Force. Your thoughts, well, you.
Speaker 4: Know, just because their conference opponents. Remember Boising didn't play
them last year. So if you're used to playing the option,
and you play it every year, you tend to start
getting prepped for. But when you miss a year, that's tough.
With the college football turnover that a lot of these
guys haven't seen the option. So to me, I think,
how many times have we watch a service academy and
the first drive they always go down and score, then
the defense make adjustments and stop him the next few times.
I think the line is right. Spencer Danielson his third year,
he did play, he did play air Force his first year.
You know, beating Eastern Washington was impressive. But I'm gonna
I'm gonna give this out. I don't really have an
opinion on the game, but when I look at air Force,
they still rushed for two hundred and sixty six yards
last week, and that's not great against Utah State. But
remember Utah State is coached by Mendelssohn, which is accustomed
to stopping the option. So I'm sorry for Bronco. Mendelsohn,
thank you.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So you know, Bronco was the coach last week,
and he knows how to defend that option much better
than Spencer Danielson does. This is one if I had
to play anything on this I would play air Force
first quarter.
Speaker 1: Oh, air Force first quarter.
Speaker 3: I like that.
Speaker 1: Ross. Your any thoughts you have on this Mountain West
matchup between boys.
Speaker 4: I don't.
Speaker 3: I mean, I have thoughts, but none of them are strong,
you know, and some would argue that's pretty common for you. Ross. Anyway, Yeah,
you know, Ralph makes very good points in Boise to me,
is nowhere near as good as what we've seen the
years past. They look terrible in their season opener in
air Force. That was a surprising loss. I mean air
Force was supposed to be a much improved team this year.
Now they very well still. Maybe they might have just
laid an egg last week. But I think I'm thinking
along the same lines as Ralph is where I think
the Air Force Falcons will stay in this game early on,
and I'll take them as a first half underdog here
in this spot at home against Poise. Yeah.
Speaker 2: That As another guy who likes to play a lot
of underdogs myself, that's something well obvious a lot of
these underdogs. If they're going to cover the full game,
it's going to require a strong start, right, especially a
team like Air Force not built to exactly burst through
the back door, so to speak. Thomasia in the chat
wants to know have y'all talked about Illinois, Indiana or
Michigan Nebraska. No, we have not yet, Thomas, And guess
what we're gonna do it right now? Thomas says Illinois
has been a beast so far, and is this the
game that puts Nebraska on the map. Ralph, you've got
I'm gonna let you just pick. He's thrown two big
ten matchups at you right there. You talk about whichever
one you want. Anything you want to say, you can
talk about both of them if you'd like anything you
have share on either of these two games.
Speaker 4: Well, Illinois has been a beast to Western Illinois at
Duke where they were out gained but were plus five turnovers.
And then Western Michigan, who anyone could beat. So I
am not impressed. But again with Indiana, we don't know
what we have old dominion twenty seven to fourteen, no
cover kennessas state Indiana State. Yeah they beat him one
twenty six to nine, and yeah they had a twelve
hundred to three hundred yard edge. But again you can't
you can't appreciate how good their team is because we
really don't know because they haven't been tested. So it
comes down to the coaches for me, and you know,
I'm a fan of Brett Bilama. I you know, when
I back in the field Steel days, Bilamo was like
one of the coaches that would call all the time.
So I used to chat with him and I and
I respect the hellad on, but I give Kurt Saganetti
the edge here for Indiana. I think what he was
the program he built last year, the excitement the program
has to get a who would have thought at the
beginning of last year that Indiana would be hosting a
prime time national TV game for the Big Ten. That's
how much their program has stepped up. I do think
that Illinois. Again, they're one game on the road, they
got out gained and they only won by five turnovers.
Now having to go to an Indiana team that's been
home for all three games. As again, some may answer
all you can do is play who's on your schedule,
and I understand it as well, and they've done it
very well. But I look at the entire body of work.
I had them power rated higher than this at the
beginning of the year, and I think Illinois is a
bit fake. So I'm one of those people that are
not going to jump on the bandwagon. And in fact,
if I had an AP vote because of that Duke
Winn and just because they're three and oh, I would
not have him in the top twenty at all.
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, I'm with you, Ralph.
Speaker 2: You know, last week I mentioned that South Carolina was
at the top of the charts on my most overrated list,
Illinois right behind them.
Speaker 1: Now, are they a.
Speaker 2: Top twenty five team? Perhaps they're not a top Wait wait,
I am the country. Yeah yeah, number nine in the country.
Stop it, I you know, I'm now. But here's the thing.
Ross and a lot of the people watching shows that
this don't want to hear something like this. But I
think this line game is lined appropriately.
Speaker 1: You look at it. Indiana's the team I also expected
to take a bit of a step back. I agree
with what Rol said.
Speaker 2: Signetty obviously did a hell of a job last year
in Bloomington, but.
Speaker 1: Usually that comes.
Speaker 2: What we see from a team that makes a big
jump one year is a little bit of regression as well.
That's what I see with both of these teams in
twenty twenty five. So it's telling you know, it's obviously
a big deal a primetime Saturday night game in Bloomington here,
But I look at this line and I say, yeah,
the odds maker's got it right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, this is one of those games. And Ralph,
I think you could appreciate this because you're a technical
handicapper a little bit like I am that I went
into this game, and I usually every week when the
lines come out, i'll ax a team that I think
I want to look at and possibly use, and I
had an X next to Illinois. And then upon further investigation,
I found some of the same stuff you guys just
alluded to. And not only that, Ralph, when I ran
the algorithms on this game, Indiana kept coming up as
a play. So when that happens with me, I just
disregard it and throw the game out. And that's where
I'm at. So I can't be of no assistance to
the viewer who asked that question other than the say
that this is one of those teams. Maybe you look
at and say booth teams are three and zero, but
we really don't know just how good either is. So
let's see what happens in this contest before jumping in
on either team until the future. So that's the way
I look at this contest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Ross coming up, We've got a matchup in
the Big twelve between a couple three and zero teams
that I don't think we know a lot about because
they haven't played anybody. Ralph, you had a question or
a comment.
Speaker 4: One more negative for Illinois. They've been sacked nine times
against Western Illinois, Duke and Western Michigan. That's scary going
on the road against this IU defensive front.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, Michigan Nebraska game that's kind of under the radar.
I'm gonna make a comment that Mike shocks people. I
think the wrong team's favorite in this game. I think
Nebraska's gonna beat Michigan Underwood, true freshman. He's looked good,
but there's a problem Ross. You need your teammates to
also look at. And the rest of this Michigan offense
looks terrible. He's got no help and he's going This
is his second true road start.
Speaker 1: They lost the first one in Norman.
Speaker 2: I believe you had a big play in Oklahoma that
game of memory. I think this is a big game
for Matt Rule obviously, and a big game for the
folks in Lincoln. You're gonna know it's gonna be a
passionate audience there. I think Nebraska is live to win
this game on the field.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you, Brian. I think this is
similar to how he analyzed the Vanderbilt in South Carolina
game last week. Although I think Michigan's much better than
South Carolina. But where I'm going with this is I
think the better team in this matchup is Nebraska, especially
at home. And I agree that the better team is
the home underdog here. And you look at Michigan how
they played in that game against Oklahoma on the road,
and sure they have a true freshman quarterback that's very talented,
but he didn't really play very well in that game.
And and like you said, he's not getting a lot
of help from his his receivers in his running game.
And I think that this is one of those games
that's a perception game because Michigan, with the real good
brand name, just two years removed from a national championship,
and they're taken on a Nebraska team that just can't
seem to get over the hump in recent seasons, but
they may be on their way this year. And I
think this is a good spot for the home underdug Ralph, which.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna add I agree with both of you, clearly
I lean that way. Again, you're talking about Bryce Underwood
that the team put up eleven hundred yards against New
Mexico and Central Michigan at home on the road. The
stats are four oh eight to two eighty eight. And
what's even more scary is they only scored thirteen points
and they were plus two turnovers. We talked how rare
it is, you know, to win a game, you know,
and so to be plus two and only have thirteen
points and twelve first downs. I cannot back a young
quarterback like that with that type of offensive pour output,
because you know, is this the year we finally see
Ryola bounce up? Well, you know, he's off to a
nice start, seventy nine percent in aight O ratio an
eight point eight YPA. So to me, I test is
clearly Nebraska not getting in the window with this. But uh,
you know, since I'm from Ohio, I'll usually if I
bet I'm Michigan, I'm a Michigan fan every other week.
I hate the Blue, go go Big Red.
Speaker 2: And and let's bring up one other point here with
this game, guys, Sharyl Moore, the Michigan head coach, is
not going to be on the sideline. This is the
second game for if his suspension. Bif Pogey, the former
Charlotte head coach, is coaching, this was that that's something
that matters I think as well so it sounds like
it might be three for three on the core in
that game. There last game on our rundown of the
Big Games. If you guys have any other game you
would like to know about, now's the time time is
running was ticking, please ask away. Otherwise, Ralph Ross and
I all have free plays to get. Well, we'll get
to the game tonight. I think somebody wanted to know
about Rice and Charlotte tonight as well. We'll get to that,
but let's talk Utah Texas Tech first. This was the
game I alluded to just a few moments ago, a
pair of three and zero teams that I'm not sure
we know much about because they have not played anyone Ross.
This is a walk and learn game for me, because
I'll make it. This is my take on this game,
and it's not gonna be very helpful for Saturday at
the Big New To Kickoff by hand, but I'm gonna
make it anyway. I think this will not be the
last time these teams play in twenty twenty five. Right now,
I have these two teams power rated one and two
in the Big Twelve, so it could be a rematch
in the Big Twelve Championship game in December.
Speaker 1: What do you think Utah Texas Tech.
Speaker 2: Have you seen enough from either side to have any
discernible opinion here?
Speaker 3: Boy oh boy, we think alike on this one, Brian.
But I could say this is that not having a
good handle on either one of these teams. In terms
of picking a S in this game, you could look
at the fact that both of these teams have put
up huge offensive numbers in their first three wins, and
their defensive numbers they've been dominant as well. I think
that we're going to see something in between here, and
what I mean by that is I don't think either
team will come close to what they've produced offensively so far,
and I don't think either defense is going to be
as dominant as they've shown against inferior opposition thus far.
So I do think this game will be played in
the low thirties, maybe thirty four to thirty one, thirty
four to thirty thirty one, even thirty four to twenty seven.
So I have a small lean toward going over the
total in this game because the safest bet to me
is both offenses we know could move the ball and score,
and I don't think either defense is going to be
nowhere near as dominant against each opposing offense in this contest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ralph, you know the one thing I will say, obviously,
so all these teams they have to cater to the networks.
This is the Fox Big noon kickoff. An early starts
is right lake Utah mate. So I agree, the two
offense have been great, Russ. But one thing that I
was thinking about with the total, and this is a
little different, I guess, is maybe a sleepy start from
these two offenses with your maybe I agree, full game obviously,
the way these college games go crazy at the end,
I wouldn't want to be holding a full game under ticket,
But maybe a first half under Ralph is a way
to approach this Utah Texas Tech matchup.
Speaker 4: What do you think I run the ball. We know
that Winningham's going to start the run. He's not one
that's going to start passing to see to open the run.
They run fifty four times against UCLA, forty six against
cal Poly, forty five against Wyoming. It's easy for me.
I had Utah's the better team coming into this season.
They have been dominant, out gaining their foes by two
seventy two, two ninety five and three twelve, and they
played two road games. Yes it was UCLA, Yes it
was Wyoming. But to me, to be that statistically good
at the start of the year and a half two
of your three road games, that's incredible to me. While
Texas Tech have played Arkansas, Pine, buff Keenn State, and
Oregon State probably the weakest schedule in all the college
football and all three were at home. Big change when
you get into this conference play. I certainly like Utah here,
but I have one interesting note that you guys can
write down this and keep track for later. If the
highest elevation in college football is Wyoming at seven thousand feet,
now you're gonna say Utah Salt Lake City is high,
but it's still only forty two hundred feet. There's still
a significant edge. If you played at Wyoming the week
before with no rest, and now you're a dog or
a favorite up to minus twenty one, you are only
nineteen and forty since two thousand and nine. That is
thirty two percent against the spread. So we always talk
about the altitude in Mile High Stadium in the NFL.
We think about that Wyoming is two thousand feet higher,
and that does affect teams. The following week that may
play into your first half under as well.
Speaker 2: Okay, so there you go. An interesting angle there not
to think about. Yes, I drove through Wilding a few summers.
It's a nice place, by the way, if anyone has
the time. Anyway, Ole Miss tu Lane, let's wrap these
up before we get to our free plays. Guys, are
two that we're each going to give you, Ole Miss
tu Lane. Anyone have any strong opinion? Twelve and a half.
Thirteen and a half's out there, ole Miss. The computers
seem to love ole Miss.
Speaker 1: Ross. I bet against ole Miss last week, and.
Speaker 3: I never got along with computers anyway. So I like
Tulane in this game. I like the points here. I
think that Tu Lane is a quality team out of
the American I think they're a legitimate team to be
considered for the college football playoff when the season ends.
In terms of the group of four representative, I think
ole Miss is coming off a big SEC win, and
I haven't looked at the schedule, but I'm almost gonna
guess they got an.
Speaker 4: SEC game next week, and that would be lsu Bross.
Speaker 3: He had lsu so saying, which between is a game
against a group of four or a group of five opponents.
You know, I just think it's a prime spot. I mean, oh,
missus defense rough, it leaves, leaves a lot to be
desired for me. I know they could score, I know
they can move the ball, but don't undervailue Tulane in
this spot. I think the Green Wave get inside the
number here, and I wouldn't be shocked if they take
him right down to the wire in this contest, no argument.
Speaker 4: I agree with him. You you look at Tulane. They're
gonna run the ball.
Speaker 3: We know that.
Speaker 4: You know Retz laugh has has not been forced to throw.
He is going to be forced to throw. So it's
gonna be up to him. He's only got a six
point seven YPA and compete completing fifty nine, so it's
gonna come up to him if he could play any
mention of a reasonable game. They're playing against an old
miss defense that aloud Kentucky one hundred and seventy two
to four point six rushing and allowed Arkansas to twenty
one six point zero. Let's see, are you gonna lay
double digits with a bad rush defense against a team
that wants to run? No, I'm not so it's too,
Lameter pass for me.
Speaker 2: All right, I've got nothing on the Thursday night game
here between Rice and Charlotte.
Speaker 1: Man, Thursday night college football ain't what it used to be,
is it.
Speaker 2: Guy Swow used to be a showcase. Then Roger Goodell said, no,
we're taking over Thursday's college football. So we've got Rice
and Charlotte in a barber. Anthony Marquez likes the over
for tonight, Ralph, did you have any thoughts on that?
Speaker 4: You know, I broke this down on Wager Talk today
on Wednesday, and I gave out first half under. So
you know, first of all, we have two new head coaches.
Scott abel comes from Davidson. He's gonna run the ball.
He established this new option. They ran fifty times against Louisiana,
fifty three against Houston, and sixty times against Prairie View.
You look at Charlotte and while we think this is
maybe one of the most boring games, there's more people
that are gonna watch this game than they're gonna watch
every Charlotte and Rice game the rest of the year combined.
So they're excited to have a primetime game on Thursday,
a standalone game you're playing at home, and you know
Tim Albin. Tim Albin won the MAC last year at Ohio.
Yes he did, and he left after the MAP championship.
So why would a coach who was a four time
MAP Coach of the Year off a conference championship win
leave and to go to Charlotte. Well, let's see, he
made about eight hundred thousand at Ohio. He's making one
point eight at Charlotte. So a million dollars will get
you to move from Ohio to Charlotte. I like Alban
I think they struggled early putting in his new systems
against app State in North Carolina. Yes it was Monmouth,
but we saw him click in. I'm an Alvin fan.
Rice is gonna run the ball. Charlotte's rush defense has
been good. This might have been a client play for
me if I could have gotten twenty one and a half.
It was twenty and a half and twenty one first
half under when I did wager talk today. I pretty
much see twenty and a half across the board now,
so at one point kept it off from being a
client player. But I do have a strong opinion first
half under, so I'm gonna go head to head whoever
has the over on this one.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, Ralph.
Speaker 2: It's great a time as I had at Ohio University
from nineteen ninety eight to two thousand and two. For
a million bucks, I might have left too, I'll tell
you that right now, so I can't fall Tim Alvin,
he did bring the school at first MAC title since
nineteen sixty.
Speaker 1: So thank you, Tim Alban. I hope you have a
find time.
Speaker 3: You know, Brian, I almost said a heart attack because
Rolph said, I know a lot of you people out
there think this game is boring, but there's gonna be
a lot of people and I'm waiting for him to
say watching this game instead of a Buffalo Miami game.
Speaker 4: Well, they get, they get the first half. Isn't that
why I'm using the first half because I got to
turn it off to go to the NFL.
Speaker 3: If it's true, this is true, you're just a wealth
and knowledge Rolf. The argument against Roff I need to
be I'll tell you.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to our free plays. Guys, we've
reached the end of the show. Thank you, by the way,
Adam for those kind remarks in the comments section. But
I'm gonna go first with my free play because I'm
sticking with a MAC team. As matter of fact, is
Ohio University's rival Miami of Ohio a little out west
there in Oxford.
Speaker 1: So Miami, Ohio hosting UNLV.
Speaker 2: We've got a three and o un l V team
heading east, playing a short number on the road.
Speaker 1: It can own to Miami with the Ohio team.
Speaker 2: If you're someone who has followed me for any length
of time, you know what we are going to do here.
That is back the desperate oh and two home dog.
I Am going to take this opportunity right now to
double down on my preseason assessment that Dan Mullen is
not the man to get the job done in Las Vegas.
I bet this UNLV team under eight and a half
wins for the season. Yes, they're three and zero, but
it could have lost his thirty and a half point
favorites to an FCS team and the opener that being
Idaho State. Then they face Sam Houston State got a
first year head coach, they're owing three, and then what
are they doing? The third game UNLV, they beat UCLA,
who's also owned three and has already fired its head coach.
The Rebels closed as a home dog against UCLA, just
to let you know what the odds makers thought of
them going into that game. Now, I get Miami, Ohio's
offense has been a tough watch the first two GIFs,
but they played two Big ten teams on the road,
Wisconsin and Rutgers. I've always respected the job head coach
Chuck Martin has done in Oxford, the RedHawks twenty three
and four straight up at home since twenty nineteen. I
think they take the game out right. Give me a
little mac sin Miami of Ohio as my free play
for the show today, Ross, you are up next.
Speaker 1: Talk to us. You're talking Oklahoma Auburn a little bit
of a bigger game.
Speaker 3: Let's not forgetting at UNLV game. To further Brian's pick
is you got a West Coast team playing a noon
Eastern Time kickoff. And I gave this out as my
tra on Wager Talk today on Wednesday, the one game
I speak about each week where the number jumped out
and looks like a trap. This was the one for
all the reasons you just said. So anyway, Okay Auburn
and Oklahoma. Oklahoma right now is six and a half
point favorite. You know, Roff, you mentioned the five to
three touchdown to interception ratio of John Mattire. But I
get that it's a concern, but I really like this kid.
He sort of reminds me. And I don't want this
to be taken out of context, but Josh Allen used
to get a lot of criticism early in his career
because he threw too many interceptions, because he took too
many chances. But the intangibles that Josh Allen brought and
now they're much better, right is interception ratio, But at
that point early in his career, this reminds me of Jeometier.
I mean the intangibles he brings to the table. The
kid just knows how to win. Okay, he's excellent with
his legs as well. He could beat him with both
his arm and legs. And I think he's going to
be the difference in this game because when you compare
him to the Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold, I'll take Matier anytime,
every day, twenty four to seven over Jackson Arrold. Not
only that, I think Ralph brought it up earlier in
the telecast. It you know, Jackson Arnold. Let's not forget
this guy was the former quarterback at Oklahoma last year,
So if anybody's going to have a defensive read on him,
it's going to be Brett Venable. And speaking of defense,
Oklahoma's just been absolutely outstanding defensively to start the season.
Big effort in that win against Michigan. They made Michigan
look pretty anemic offensively actually, and their first three games
giving up six point three points per game at just
one hundred and eighty one yards per contest. This is
also an Oklahoma team twenty four and four straight up
in their last twenty eight at home, So they went
through a couple of lean year or last year, especially
a lean year, but there's still one twenty four or
last twenty eight at home, so their home field advantage
is still very strong. And they were two and six
in the SEC last year and they have a lot
to atone for and I think they're ready to do so.
And with that two and six record, one of their wins,
by the way, came at Auburn. Okay, you could say
Auburn has revenge. Revenge doesn't make it automatic, you know,
it doesn't mean you're going to get revenge. There's a
lot of series that gets dominated in college football. I'm
not saying this is one of them. I'm just saying
I like the Oklahoma Sooners here latest six and a
half against the Auburn Tigers.
Speaker 2: There you go, Ross Yellen Boomer sooner and that one. Ralph,
all right, you get your up next with your free play.
Interesting matchup Troy and Buffalo. Buffalo almost lost to Kent
Stadium last week. I would have been the worst loss
in college football all year. Kent State is not a
team that is expected to really win any more games
this year, and they almost the Buffalo Bulls there, Buffalo
pulled one out of the fire late.
Speaker 1: Buffalo playing Troy this week. This is talk to us.
How you like what you like in this list?
Speaker 4: Well, I think we're pretty much going to agree with
the premise. Do not waste your money laying a touchdown
with a crappy team, and Buffalo is a crappy team.
Now I make Troy the favorite. So that's like an
eight point difference in this game. But the reaction to
Goose crowd are getting hurt. He heard his shoulder again.
He's out for a couple of weeks. I think he's
going to come back later this year. You know, it
is a big loss. Because he was a mobile quarterback
as well. But the reaction is way too big. Tucker
Killcrees came in yesterday last week and looked horrible. That
was at Memphis, not practicing. He made two starts last year.
This guy played for Gerald Parker in season number one.
He knows the offense. I think a week of a
week of offense taking the snaps with the ones, I
think Troy does enough defensively. Buffalo again, Kent State is
the lowest team that I've ever had Power rated in
the last ten years. I only have my records for
the last ten years my computer craft. That's how bad
they are. They're the worst college football team in my
Power ratings in ten years. So to beat them thirty
one to twenty eight and have to come back from
a couple scores down to do it again, bad team,
laying almost a touchdown. I want no part of it.
I'm going to fade. Buffalo play on Troy to rally
around their injured quarterback, and I truly believe rally around
a star player is legitimate, but only for the first game.
You can only get your enthusiasm and excitement and the
defense can raise to the occasion. Only once and then
I think you have to take it out of the equation.
I think Troy is that kind of quality team that
this wi occur.
Speaker 2: All right, damn throw that fancy graphic on the screen
here with all three of our free plays. There you
go the Blitz squad ride right there. You want to
parlay them together plus five eighty nine. Ross is laying
the six and a half with Oklahoma against Auburn, Ralph
taking the six and a half with Troy against Buffalo,
and I will be taking the two and a half
with Miami of Ohio against UNLV. Those are your three
free plays here on the Blitz. Guys, we're gonna we're
gonna wrap things up. But let's let let's remind everyone
we've got cooking at wager talk dot com this weekend.
Obviously that weekend Warrior Pass. We talked about that earlier
in the show. Just forty nine dollars. You can get
all of our football plays, each one of it. It's
forty nine dollars per handicapper. You get all of our
plays NFL and College Saturday Sunday and Monday as a
free bonus. Talked about six and two last two Saturdays
in college football I am. Last week, my best bet
was Vanderbilt over South Carolina NFL five percent max bet.
Last Sunday it was Atlanta over Minnesota. In both of
those two instances, we did not have DoD three and
a half points both teams one outright. I will have
big cards both Saturday and Sunday WT Dot Buzz slash BP,
and don't forget about Major League Baseball, where I'm a
perfect three and oh the last two nights and on
a seventeen at nine and one run as well.
Speaker 1: Ross remind the people you got going in your neck
of the woods man.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hate to be redundant, but four and oh
last week in college football five percent best bet winner
last week, as I had ten to three plus two points,
should have won the game out right, but they didn't.
But they certainly covered, So I'll take that. That's three
and oh to start the year with my college football
five percent best bets, I'll have one of those up
on Saturday. Ten and five in college football on the season,
number one in college football last year, and win percentage
and units earned number one in college football since it
started twenty twenty three and units earned eight and four.
With my combination college football NFL last week, and you
know I'm off to a bad start in the NFL.
And I always i'm transparent because here's what I would say, folks,
if you're down and out on me with the NFL.
I get it. Six and ninet the year. That's not
up to my standard. But five of my losses came
by a combined five points, so I know I'm handicapping
the games right, just a little bit of bad luck.
We're going to turn that around. In Major League Baseball,
by the way, Number one this year. I temporarily lost
that spot yesterday but came back with a winner last night,
and the people chasing me both lost and I don't
want to see anybody lose it wagotalk dot com. But
we're all competitive, right. Number one in Major League Baseball
this year, folks up over eighty units for the year,
and also on a ninety eight and sixty five run
sixty percent in Major League Baseball since early May.
Speaker 2: Oh right, cross the boss there, dealing, Ralph, What do
you got going this weekend?
Speaker 3: Here?
Speaker 1: Remind the people again.
Speaker 4: Another NFL five percent? I know this is college football
six and oh one five percent, eight straight winning teasers
fifteen and one the last sixteen teasers, I did go look,
I lost that teaser by three points, so I got
my teeth kicked in, so I wanted to make sure
that that one loss wasn't by half a point. So uh,
try out anyone, guys. The Weekend Warrior was such a
success last week, an incredible number. We had a record
number of people signing up, and why wouldn't you. It's
a great way for you to try multiple services and me, Ross,
Brian or Ani Caapper at wager talk try it out
wager talk dot com, my homepage, w T dot buzz,
backslash r M.
Speaker 2: We thank all of you for tuning in to another
edition here of the Blitz on wager Talk's YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: Remember please like and subscribe.
Speaker 2: Well a lot of click that button that way, If
I wouldn't find shows like this drop each and every week.
Speaker 1: We'll be back again.
Speaker 2: Ross, Ralph and I talking eight Big Big Week five
in college football.
Speaker 1: Until that we assume that