Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone, It is time for full
court press. Sorry we're a minute or two late. We're
fixing some audio issues behind the scenes, but I believe
we've got it all set now and we have a
very very small slate to talk about today. So we
are going to do what we did last week on Monday,
and we're going to go to Tuesday to kick off
the show with pretty much the one game that's got
a line up for it now and it is easily
the biggest game of the night on Tuesday's slate. So
welcome and my co host Rob Vino. Rob Big, big
game for the Tennessee Valls Thompson Bowling Arena Tuesday night.
Feels like when they kind of have to have. They've
got Louisville coming to town slight fit Louisville minus one
and a half to open. How do you see this one, Louisville, Tennessee,
big game for the balls.
Speaker 2: Well this what the Volves have to be happy to
be back home for starters in five games either on
the road, true road or neutrals. I don't know how
close you want to call Bridgestone to being a neutral.
Knoxville and Nashville really that close, But I guess the
Illinois game would have favored Tennessee for travelers. But Tennessee,
like I said, haven't been home in a long time.
The other side hasn't been on the road other than
against Arkansas, and they didn't win that game. Arkansas beat
Louisville eighty nine to eighty. You know, fundamentally out of it. Well,
let's let's just start with situationally. I do think Tennessee
the hunger your team at home, slight home dog. I
think if you were just going to add up situational angles,
you would come toward Tennessee. Then when you get to
the matchups on the floor and you realize it's, you know,
a severe contrast in styles here. We've talked about about
Pat Kelsey before his career is the same. He's gonna run,
They're gonna shoot threes. Louisville of their point production comes
from beyond the arc. That's number ten in the country,
the tenth most. Tennessee's gonna have to prevent that from
happening here. But Tennessee likes to go slow and they're
a huge offensive rebounding teams, So Louisville's gonna have to
stop that Tennessee is number one in the nation not
only in offensive rebounding, but in second chance points and
second chance points. On the defensive side of this, Louisville
ranks number two thirty two in second chance points allowed.
So you got big edge for Louisville as far as
three point shooting is concerned, you got the big edge
for Tennessee as far as the glass is concerned. On
their offensive end, Tennessee hasn't taken a taking care of
the ball. Well, I'll tell you what for me, I'm
just gonna single out one player here, point guard Tennessee
Jacoby Gillespie, started his career in Bellmont, went to Maryland.
When he's right in games that I've seen, take the
Houston game four instance where Tennessee beat Houston. Tennessee is
a really good but Gillespie has a tendency to go
cold from beyond the arc, not make a lot of
clutch shots that they've been loose with the basketball here,
and that type of stuff can't happen against Louisville otherwise
they're going to find themselves in a bad position. I
think the combination of Gillespie and Ament, who's been really
good for Tennessee on across the front line. They showed
they can beat the best of the best, but recently
it just hasn't been good. And for Louisville, I sort
of questioned their schedule a little bit. They they've played
kind of not great teams, but really good teams across
the board. Here. I think Arkansas may have moved themselves
up a notch over the course of this last weekend.
But for me, I'd rather lean to the home team here. Adam,
you know, Louisville has a lot of three point shooters
and you're gonna have to protect the arc. But if
Tennessee doesn't allow this to get up tempo, probably in
really good shape at home. For those who don't know,
and you've probably been in this arena, I haven't, but
it's one of like the ten largest arenas in college basketball.
So it's gonna be noisy for Louisville. It's gonna be
a super test against against them, specifically offensively, because if
they don't play offense, Adam, I don't know that they
win this game. So I'm gonna lean Tennessee here. On
the situational, I'm gonna lean Tennessee here, even though they
haven't put up the kind of numbers were used to
Rick Barnes teams putting up. So far, their schedule the
last four games has been pretty intense and it's gonna
continue to be intense. Only difference is this time they
get it at home. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I h the only time I've ever been inside Thompson
Bowling Arena.
Speaker 3: I was in Knoxville for a football game.
Speaker 1: Had a buddy that went to Tennessee Oregon was in
town and they were like top five.
Speaker 3: This has got to be like fifteen years ago.
Speaker 1: They It was a huge rainstorm, lightning, the game got delayed.
Everyone had to evacuate the arena, so we were like
looking for shelter. We went into tops and Bowling Arena.
We run into Tobias Harris, who's who's there at this time?
And one of my I was with guys that played
against him in like the New York State final and
won because he's from New York and so we were
like they were like, yo, we're from CBA, and he
just goes, yo, fuck CVA and then walked away. That's
my Tobias Harris story. That's my Thompson Bowling Arena story.
It is massive, like we you know, obviously there was
no game, but we got to you know, got to
hang out in there. But that is the one time
I've been in there. I will get back for a
basketball game at some point.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I did get to see Tennessee play in person the
other day they were up here in Syracuse. I felt
like Syracuse did a tremendous job defending Galepsie and and
really took Tennessee out of what they wanted to do.
Obviously pulled the upset in that game. The one thing
I'll say is though, and this is this is my
so I kind of have concerns for both sides in
this game.
Speaker 3: My concern with Tennessee.
Speaker 1: You talked about gelepsy being right, Okay, he really hasn't
been against good competition.
Speaker 3: That that's my concern.
Speaker 1: And you know, the one game that Tennessee can sort
of hang their hat on right now is the Houston game.
But you gotta really look at like situationally, like what
that Vegas tournament was, so like that Tennessee Houston game,
I believe came on the heels of Houston going to
overtime with Syracuse, very grueling game for them. Tennessee got
to run Rutgers out by thirty the day before, so
like and I also think Tennessee and Houston are very similar,
like the way they want to play, so I thought
it was a good matchup for them. But like outs,
Gilepsi's good game, Gelepsi's good games are Northern Kentucky, North Florida, Rice,
Tennessee State, and Rutgers. What really hasn't been you know,
didn't play great against Mercer, who I actually kind of
liked that Mercer team this year for for what conference
they're in. And then you know Illinois, Syracuse, KU, Kansas,
and Houston not I guess the Houston game he had
twenty two points, still went five or sixteen from the field,
like six for twenty against Illinois.
Speaker 3: That's not very good.
Speaker 1: Five for twelve against Syracuse, five for nineteen against Kansas.
And then you talk about a man again, he's another
one where couldn't do anything against QS. You know, nine
points on one for eight shooting against Houston, did nothing
in the Illinois game like that is that is kind
of my concern for Tennessee is that they don't have
enough scoring to beat some of these better teams that
they're playing now. My concern for the Louisville side is
something that you mentioned. They shoot a lot of threes,
and you know you talk about I was on Arkansas
in the game that they went to Arkansas. That game
was actually that finals closer than it was. I felt
like Arkansas just had them. I never was even like
remotely concerned that Arkansas wasn't going to win that game.
It was like clear from the outset that they just
weren't going to be able to go there bombs away
from three and beat that team, you know, amazing the
other So if you look at like when they've gone
on the road this year, you know that Cincinnati game
wasn't necessarily easy for Louisville and they ended up pulling
it out by ten, but it wasn't really like an
easy game. I felt like Cincinnati sort of played them
pretty good, and that Cincinnati team is not very good,
like they've they've shown us that to this point. So
it's like last two games for Louisville, they were able
to sort of do what they wanted from three. They
crush Memphis, they beat Indiana, but like Tennessee will give them,
it's not just going to be easy to get off
clean looks from three against Tennessee. That's the one thing
about Tennessee, very very good defensive team. They're going to
force Louisville into tough shots. Would that put like? As
I talk about it, I kind of am making a
case for the under here. I feel like, I don't
know if I could pick a side, but I certainly
think scoring could be a little bit tougher in this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. And I think the reason why,
the reason why I wanted to put this whole game
for the Tennessee side on Jacoby Gillespie is because last year,
when you had Ziggler and those guys, you knew the
backcourt was steady for Tennessee. It just doesn't seem and
it is a great divide, right. You mentioned the first
five games of the year where they were playing lousy
competition and it looked great, and then these last five
games that we've all paid attention to from Thanksgiving on
because their higher profile games, you see that this could
be a problem. He was not great at Maryland last year.
It's almost like he was a star at Belmont, stepped
up in class, hasn't been an elite point guard. I
think ze Guy Ziggler wasn't e leite point guard. So
for Tennessee, they're gonna have to get something there. Felix
Akpara just an animal on the boards. That's where they
might be able to make a lot of their a
lot of their separation or whatever. If they get a
lead in this game. It's gonna be tough for Louisville
on that end. But it is a difficult game, Adam.
I think that, you know, the situationals might add up
to Tennessee, but boil boy, if Louisville does hit a
few threas, it's going to be because Tennessee doesn't really
shoot three pointers that well. You can't trade threes for
twos and Louisville can get to the free throw line,
and the point spread is going to be in that
one point area. For a reason, it's a difficult game
to call him. Maybe the under what are we looking
at here? Anyway, we were looking at uh as far
as the total might be concerned, looks like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we have this, so we have a one
fifty seven and a half at DK.
Speaker 3: They also have Louisville minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: Right now, I felt like the spreads Yeah, the total
definitely sounds high.
Speaker 3: I felt like the spread was fair.
Speaker 1: I made it like one point seven five, so pretty
much right in line with my number. But it felt
high to me because I really think Tennessee's got to
clamp down defensively if they want to have any shot
at winning this game, and you have to, they have
to force Louisville in the tough threes. And if they
do that, though, Louisville's offense can run a little stagnant.
So again, that would be that that's the best thing
I see for this game. And this, of course is
a Tuesday game. But yeah, one fifty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that that's that's a key point too, that you
know I should have played when I talk about styles.
In contrast, Tennessee will slow them down in their home arena.
I mean, Louisville is not going to be able to
run play ninety four foot basketball this entire game like
they want to. So one fifty seven and a half
for the time being, and we'll move on. I think
I would lean towards that under one fifty seven and
a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, CBA Albany over half Hollow Hills West in the
twenty ten New York State Class Double A championship game
and I didn't. I didn't go to CBA Albany, but
my friends did. And I was just trying to say,
what's up to Tobias Harris. I was like a fan.
He was just basically like, yeah, you know, we're all set.
I don't want to talk.
Speaker 2: Can I ask real quick if is CBA the Christian
Brothers Academy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a couple of them. So there's the one
my friends went to was the the Albany one. There's
a CBA Syracuse. Great rob This is a great transition,
great transition right here because CBA Syracuse and Syracuse legend
Greg Paulis is on the card today and he is
out in Virginia.
Speaker 3: And I gotta say, like, I think Greg.
Speaker 1: Paulis is an awesome coach, and he just does not
have a Division one roster this year. This has been
an issue since he's got there. If you are not
familiar with where Lewiston, New York is, probably the toughest
place to recruit to in the country. I can't understand.
I don't know why anyone, why anyone would want to
live in Niagara Falls, New York. Sorry, It's just like
there's three hundred and sixty five Division one college basketball schools,
and three hundred and sixty of them are probably in
a more favorable location than Niagara. The reason I bring
that up, Rob is he's managed to find these like
Needle and the Haystack type players that go unnoticed, and
he always seems to do more with less. That's what
I said about Paulas since he got there, he does
more with less. This year just doesn't have much talent
on the roster. I think this will probably be the
worst team he's had at Niagara.
Speaker 3: Now, do you want to lay thirty? I don't know. VC.
You might be a little upset about that lost to
New Mexico.
Speaker 1: So I'll answer whatever you were gonna ask about CBA already.
But I felt like a great point to transition to
CBA legend, Greg Paulus and Niagara in our next game.
Speaker 2: You actually transition into a couple of things that get
into get a little personal with me. CBA Syracuse is
the one my brother in law went to. That's why
I asked him it was Christian Brothers Academy, not all
me and Niagara. Who would want to go to Niagara well,
it just so happens, and I'll probably outdate every single
person watching us here. But obviously Niagara famous for Calvin
Murphy in the late sixties who finished second to Pete
Maravich in the scoring title great NBA player, Houston Rockets broadcaster.
Younger people probably know him more as a Houston Rockets
announcement anything else. From my hometown in Norwalk, Connecticut. So
that's one of our claims to fame back in Fairfield
County is Calvin Murphy, who actually came to our high
school one time and with his Rockets, you know, warm
ups on and played a game against a set of teachers.
But let's get back to this real quick. Obviously, again
contrast in styles, right, I mean, Paul is his team.
They have no choice but to play the way that
they do, which is crawl, try and make it a
high fifties, low sixties game and see if we can
pull something out, maybe have a hot shooting night, et cetera.
It could work in conference a couple of times this year.
It probably doesn't work against VCU and Phil Martelli who's
still trying to establish something here. Obviously, Greyhound style pace.
They did lose to New Mexico, So there's some coaching,
some teaching moments he can have and practice. Yere, I
would think that at the outset of this game, it
might be a little much for Niagara to handle. First
half line here, bet up from seventeen to eighteen and
a half. Could you see DCU, you know, forty three
twenty four at halftime? Yeah, it's it's plausible for sure.
Could you see the game getting over sixty seven and
a half in the first half. VCU is going to
do the bulk of the scoring. I can't lay this
number at him because I just don't do it on
a regular basis just a thing of mine that I
won't lay this many points because if VCU doesn't take
the last eight minutes of the game. Seriously, sometimes you
can't hold that margin or create that margin, So tough
to lay it. If you're going to lay it, the
recommendation would be first half when they probably come out
of the gates firing and Niagara going to be unable
to play their slow pace for the majority of the
game in this gym. Yeah, difficult game for me just
because I don't deal in numbers this big. But if
I was gonna recommend something. It would be VCU first half.
And I think the loss to New Mexico probably does
add little fuel to the fire. If they beat New Mexico,
maybe we would be on nag or here taking the bunch.
Speaker 1: Well, I'll tell you right now. I mean where this
open and where it is now you're looking at. I
mean it's up to thirty two and a half open
At twenty nine and a half, my number was more
in line with the open. Like that's not enough value
for me to want to like take the thirty two
and a half. But I will what I will say
about Paulus, Like I remember him coming into the to
the dome and like hanging around and covering a number
a couple of years ago, Like he he doesn't he's
not gonna let his team quit now. Like you know,
I was at a I think that I was at
a Niagara Saint Bonaventer game.
Speaker 3: At Niagara.
Speaker 1: They were all like it was a sellout because they
don't get to host the bombies very often. It's a
couple of years back when when Saint Bonaventu was really
good and Saint Bonaventu destroyed them, and like I sat
right behind the Niagara bench and he he was still
just he coached all forty minutes and it was like,
you know, those are the types of things where you're
talking about catching thirty thirty one, thirty two points, like
knowing that they're not gonna quit on him. Is I
guess something you want to know when you're talking about
a thirty two point dog. But to me, this year,
this year, this Niagara team is just so like not
Division one caliber really some of their law I mean
you talk about like teams that they've played in Division
one this year, like lost to Lemoyne, lost to Howard,
lost to Morgan State over the weekend. I mean, those
are those are teams that most MAC schools are going
to win those types of games.
Speaker 3: Lost lost to Detroit at home.
Speaker 1: I mean, I like that Detroit team, But still I
think Niagara is a slight favorite there. And then in
Mac play, just destroyed by Sianna, destroyed by Saint Peter's
eighty three fifty four and seventy one forty three in
games that they were fine playing slower.
Speaker 3: That's the other thing. It's like if those teams.
Speaker 1: Are running you out like that and VCU decides that
they're a little pissed off from the New Mexico results.
That's tough, man, I slick Vick says, I could see
VCU up twenty two at halftime.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what. Maybe you go with Rob's VCU.
Speaker 1: First half angle for like a half unit and if
it doesn't get there, come over with the full unit
on the second half, because I think VCU will run out.
They're gonna dominate one half of this game. I just
don't know which one it is. All right, let's continue through.
We'll probably get to all of them. But I will
go off of like what people are talking about in
the comments. But yeah, we probably will get to not
many games today, but this might be the smallest slate
so far of the year, but one people seem to
be talking about, which is interesting. And also, I'm guessing
someone is out. Wafford's going to go to Gardner Web,
and I have a feeling this move to Wafford means
someone is out for Gardner Web. The other reason I
said say that is someone I know that that BET's
primarily off of injury News played the I think over
in this one, So that's you know, that is a
It's a sign to me that says someone out is
probably out for Guarded Web. Now my question to you,
Rob is does any does Gardner Web have someone on
their roster that's worth three points?
Speaker 3: My gut says no. And you know what, the last
couple of times.
Speaker 1: They've played, they hung around with Georgia Southern and they
beat a non board team. Now this is a Guarded
Web team that lost to something called North Greenville, which
is not a Division one team and also was blown
out in every single game pretty much prior to that
Georgia Southern game. There's no way I can lay eleven
and a half on the road with Wafford. But I
also don't know if I can. I don't know if
I have any desire to take those points either. So
anything for your hear Wafford Gardner.
Speaker 2: Web, Yeah, you know what? For me, I think the
look has to be toward the over in this game,
Gardner Web for what it's worth. And you see this
looks like a like a swack chart, a swack team chart.
When you pull up Gardner Web, Run Run, Run, can't
make a shot right, You're gonna get plenty of possessions here,
But does anything go in the hoop where Gardner Web
is concerned. The scores have been, you know, relatively high,
the final scores, so obviously there's enough chances in a
game despite their lousy shooting, to get games up and
over the total. Here we're looking at a number I
don't know. The vicinity here is kind of tough, at
one fifty six and a half. Like you say, it's
been bet up about a point and a half. Not
really sure you know what the best bet. As I'm
going through numbers here real quick out and to see
where we are with currents, I think that the play
might be to go to the Wafford team total. To
answer your question, is there anybody on Gardner webworth three points? No,
those types of moves are reserved for you know, power
conference teams, sometimes a little more than three, but basically
not reserved for mid majors unless there's an elite superstar down.
And this is probably a low major. But eighty two
and a half looks low to me for the Wafford side. Obviously,
Gardner Web's gonna run and they give it up. They don't.
Not only don't they shoot, but they don't play much
defense either. Points allowed in games against team they give
up one oh seven to Queens, which isn't necessarily a
higher tempo team, but they are a team that shoots
it pretty well. Georgia Southern eighty four there, I would
think eighty two and a half. I would isolate this
to just the team total. I don't want to depend
on new Web racing up and down the floor, missing
a shot or turning it over, et cetera, et cetera.
So let the side go, Let the full game total go.
I would say Wafford over the over the number.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I could see that.
Speaker 1: You know, Wafford's an interesting case because they had the
whole thing with their coach, who I believe ended up
getting fired like right before the season. But they're they're
still like a fair amount of talent on their roster.
So it's like I almost looked at Wafford as like
undervalued coming into the year because I didn't really think
the coach thing mattered all that much. I felt like
they still had like better players than they were maybe
getting credit for. And I think for the most part,
they you know, there's they're six and four. They they
come in with a nice win over in Milwaukee, kind
of beat the teams that they were supposed to beat. Now,
this is very interesting because I went to a Wafford
Elon game two years ago down to Elon, and Wafford
really struggled with the Elon zone in that game.
Speaker 3: Now that was that was? It was last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was last year because Matthew Van Coleman was
still on the team. They really struggled with Elon zone.
Interestingly enough, they got bombed by Elon last time out
too and scored fifty two points. And I have a
feeling it's because Elon just it's a bad matchup for them.
They extend their zone and I'm just gonna pull up
the stats from that game real quick. Yeah, Wafford seven
for thirty two from three, and it's basically all they
could could shoot.
Speaker 3: It's all they they could shoot in that game.
Speaker 1: They're a little undersized, so they got out rebounded by
Elon big time. Couldn't make a shot. So I think
that's a little deceiving. That's probably a bad matchup for Wafford.
Now a couple of years in a row, Garter Web's
not gonna be able to do that. Defensively, Gardner Web's
not gonna be with out rebound Wafford. Gardner Webb's one
of the worst rebounding teams in the country. So and
Garter Web turns it over a ton, which is gonna
lead to runouts and what Wafford would want to do
scoring wise. So I kind of think you're onto something there,
Watford team. You said team total over is what you like, Rob.
Speaker 2: I would lean towards eighty two and a half going over. Yeah,
I'm just looking here at him. Last game, neither Jefferson,
Clark or Peterson played, but none of those guys factor
into primary minutes for the Gardner Web squad. So you
got three reserves that were out last game. I don't
know if the reserves are injury enough to push the number,
but certainly, you know, seventy seven to sixty three over
Brevard Bravard. If we say the European way indicates that
they're a little bit depth shy, and if they're death shy,
here more even more of a lean towards the over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say the over is what ticked
up in this one. I would very much agree with that.
This feels like there's gonna be points. It feels like
a get out of hand, and if it gets out
of hand, you'll you'll probably get help from Gardner Web too,
like if it ends up being like if it ends
up trending in the direction the market is trending in
where Wofford's up ten fifteen points, I could see this
one just like going off the rails a ton of
second half points and you get and you get there
either way. But I like your look at the Wafford team.
What Watford's definitely gonna score here. So I think that
that's a really good look. Okay, I'll give out I'll
give out a best bet. I'll give out my leg
of the parlay. Let's go you know what, Rob, since
we're since we're chasing a couple of units on the parlay. Now,
let let's and it's a small slate. Let's go with
a two teamer. Let's let's because there's only two of
us on the show, let's go two team. Or we'll
see if we can hit.
Speaker 3: It's hard enough to hit a two team or we're
trying to hit three teamers, so we'll try a two team.
Speaker 1: Or today, my leg of the parlay three percent play
for my clients is going to be Houston Christian They
are at home playing McNee State I gave out plus fifteen,
uh and the reason I want to. So we'll call
this a little Adam trigger system play, if you will,
because I'm going into this like I want to fade
McNeice when they go on the road in conference play
against teams that I think are capable. That we did
this a couple of weeks ago. I actually gave it
out on this show. They went on the road to
increnit Word and they lost that game outright as an
eleven point favorite, they lost to increnit Word. Now, the
teams that I have on my list here as potential
spots to do this, there's like eight of them.
Speaker 3: So I have increnet Word, which has already happened. That
was a win. It's only come out up one time
so far.
Speaker 1: So it's one to zero Steven f Austin, ut Rio,
Grand Valley, Houston, Christian New Orleans, Southeast Louisiana, Lamar and
Nichols Nickels State or I guess we're just calling it
Nichols now. But either way, I think those eight teams
are at least capable enough to play a good game
on their home floor. Why am I looking at this
as kind of like you know I want to attack
this sort of spot because I don't think McNeese State
is as good as they were last year, but I
think they are still superior to the rest of the league.
They're still elite in the context of the Southland, and
they're still going to get priced like they did last
year in all of these games. Bill Armstrong great coach.
I'm sure he's going to be able to sort of
carry the torch, but he's not well wide. I don't
know if this team has quite the talent they did
last year with Wade. And while I still think they're
a very good team, we've seen that so far. Asking
them to go on the road and lay fifteen or
huge numbers in what is going to be every Southland
team super Bowl is going to be very, very difficult
to do and cover those big numbers at home. They're
going to destroy teams like they crushed Tech, East Texas
A and M Who's Bad on Friday, they crush Northwestern State,
Who's bad. Those teams, if you've noticed, are not on
my list of teams I'd be willing to go to
war with rob and they crush both of those teams.
Houston Christian I actually don't mind what I've seen out
of them. They've been competitive in most of the games
that they should be competitive in, and again it's a
small gym. I expect them to have a decent crowd.
And I'm more or less just saying that I don't
agree with the massive premium that's being attached to McNeice
on the road now that it's no longer will wide McNeice. So,
Houston Christian beat a good New Orleans team the other day,
went on the road and won that game. They played
North Texas in the super pit in Denton to a
two point final. Again, I just think they're capable enough
to hang around and keep this interesting. I don't know
if they'll pull an Increnet Word and win ROB, but
I definitely think they could keep it competitive. So I
took the fifteen points with Houston Christian today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just real quick as you were talking to
because I know when BP was on the other day,
we were talking about the South play and maybe having
some teams that could push MacNeice. Obviously, Incarnate Word has
already beat them. I had mentioned Houston Christian at the time,
and it's based off of some of the results against
UC San Diego. They only lost by eighteen on the road,
and you're getting fifteen and a half here. Some of
these results somewhat leads me to believe that this team
right now by odds makers is still undervalued, like the
power rating hasn't caught up to how good the team is.
And that's the time when you want to take advantage
of a team like this that kind of flies under
the radar. Houston Christian not much emphasis placed on them
by odds makers, so you may be getting them at
a good price. When conference play took over here, you know,
you beat New Orleans, like you mentioned, you play sde
Louisiana to an overtime contest, and prior to that, again,
you know, playing North Texas isn't the easiest thing to do.
That style is difficult. You only lose by two to them.
I don't know. The plus points here make a lot
of sense. And what completely makes sense is the fact
that McNeice was a much better well, I don't want
to say I'm much better, but with Will Wade as
head coach, we kind of knew Will Wade was the
guy who would want to put his foot on the
throat of the opponents. We don't know that as much
about it. Will Wade was looking to get back into
into Power five basketball as a head coach and he
was gonna make his mark by beating Southland teams by
thirty And we don't know that we have that here
this year. So Houston Christian, not that you need my
stamp of approval, but I'm happy to ride with that
as half of our parlay here. So let's go HCU.
Speaker 1: I mean, Bill Armshark took his whole starting five out
the other day, like was pissed off, right like, So
that's to me, that's like I still think they're I
mean again, are they the best team in the south Land. Yeah,
Like they're probably gonna win the league. They may they
may only lose another, you know, maybe one more league
game all year, who knows. And they're not going to
lose at home, probably not. It would take a lot
for them to lose I think on their home floor.
But when they go to these like, it's gonna be
a good environment. Small gym got to get down there.
It is a tiny gym. They're at Houston Christian. I
think you gotta like, I think you gotta like their
chances to at least be competitive. You know, you lose
by ten, you still easily cover that fifteen point spread.
So yeah, that'll be my that's a that's a three
percent play for me. That'll be my leg of the parlay.
Speaker 3: Rob.
Speaker 1: I will give you the floor in a little bit,
but I want to I guess I want to just
transition to another game that I have my eye on.
Speaker 3: That's sort of if it.
Speaker 1: If it gets back to the number I want, this
will likely be a second client play for me.
Speaker 3: And that is our favorite Increnet word. I you, I
believe it.
Speaker 1: The Cardinal Cardinals maybe, but they they step out of
conference tonight is a big underdog head over to.
Speaker 3: TCU and.
Speaker 1: Interesting matchup because it's like, you know, they're a big
underdog out of conference. You know that they probably will
get up for playing a big name team. But man,
TCU has some talented guards that defend really hard, and
I'm wondering if that might be a little too much
for uiw here. So anything on this one for you?
Incarnet word TCU horned frogs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I looked at it earlier this morning, and again
where TCU is concerned, it's the defensive side of what
Jamie Dixon. It looks like an improved defensive team. Jamie
Dixon's team kind of went away from his pit identity
the last couple of years. They've been a team that's
been caught up in higher scoring games. But when I
go back to that Michigan game, and I said it before,
I'll say it again. It was a night where I
texted you and said that Jamie Dixon had a real
plan here, and they've executed it and nobody has held
Michigan this Michigan can score sixty and a half. They
only scored sixty seven for the game against this team.
So defensively, I think it's key to look out for
inside the Big twelve as well, the defensive oriented conference
when we get into conference play, TCU may be a
team that gets involved in a lot of unders. Last
game against North Texas played a team that doesn't want
to move up and down the floor. Sixty five to
fifty five, low scoring game. Question becomes will they score
enough to cover this kind of number, And perhaps because
of the step down in class for them, they will.
They've actually played a ruthless schedule so far. Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin,
Notre Dame like I say, North Texas style is not easy.
They open the season with that game against New Orleans,
who surprised them, I think right out of the shoot.
But it's been a really tough schedule for TCU. So
certainly they are a sharpened ball club right now. And
Incarnate Word might be a little bit out of their
weight class, right, that's what we want to say here,
out of their weight class. I could see, you know,
I'm trying to look at the team total four Incarnate
Word here real quick, because that could be something to
look at with the defensive style of tsues. Incarnate Words number.
Actually it opened sixty nine and has been bent down
to sixty seven and a half. Now there's some sixty
eight and a half's out there. If you are going
to play that undershop, well get the sixty eight and
a half. But I could see TCU holding this team
below sixty eight and a half points tonight for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean here's the thing with Incarnet Word.
Speaker 1: They're I'd be concerned about them on the defensive end,
like being able to get a you know, just get stops.
That that's my concern. I think they've got the firepower
to score some points, but they really have they They
haven't had to play like the crazy schedule where you're
playing like all power conference teams.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: The only one, the only really power conference team that
they've played so far was Indiana, and it was kind
of like I remember the game.
Speaker 3: It was like a Sunday afternoon.
Speaker 1: It was not like the It was kind of a
sleepy spot for Indiana, and they just kind of went
through the motions and you know, won the game by eight,
like it was a sixty nine to sixty one final,
and I don't think Indiana was very interested in the game.
The other spot where they went on the road and
sort of stepped up in class non conference was opening
night of the season at Colorado State and they got
destroyed ninety eight sixty four. That was a very interested
Colorado State team, of course, in their first game of
the season, and they just could not play defense against
that Colorado State team. From the on the other side
of the ball, TCU, man, they have these guards that
will they're in your shorts like on every possession.
Speaker 3: They really are like a nuisance. And you know, you have.
Speaker 1: Guys like taj s Deaveski who liked to go off
the dribble that might be harder for him to do
in a matchup like this, right, Like, I think a.
Speaker 3: Lot of incredent words.
Speaker 1: Offense is started by his ability to like, you know,
dribble and then kick out for a three.
Speaker 3: In credit word, a very good three point shooting team.
Speaker 1: But like, I don't know that you can take these
TCU guards off the dribble. They're all very like, go
look at what they did to Florida's backcourt, right, Like,
I mean, Florida had real issues trying to you know,
dribble and get into the paint with the guards. Of course,
we've talked about Florida's mid major guards this year. It's
probably another reason why. But like that, that's my concern here.
So if it gets back to nineteen where it opened,
I'll have to at least consider it.
Speaker 3: But for right now, it has yet yet to make
my card.
Speaker 1: They were very intes that that's one of the more
interesting watches for me tonight in my opinion. All right, Rob,
do you know what you want your leg of the
parlay to be or do you is there something? I mean,
there's only a couple of games we haven't talked about.
Are you thinking of a game that we've already discussed,
or are you thinking of one we haven't talked about.
Speaker 2: The one that we haven't talked about, Adam and the
Wyoming South Dakota State game, which is gonna be a
really good game. I forget if I use them as
a player in the parlay earlier this year, but I
do know that we talked about them earlier. But it's
the tempo change here for Sundance Wicks and his club
that really has caught anybody's eye who's paying attention here
this season. Early on, they're a much quicker basketball team
as far as pace is concerned, and they're a really
good shooting team. Now. South Dakota State in the past
was much the same, but under the new head coach here,
Brian Peterson, it just has it's kind of like they've
dialed it down a little bit. Adam. They become more methodical,
like a North Dakota State has been inside the Summit League,
and they're not racking up the huge numbers, and they
did lose a lot of offensive capability as far as
personnel is concerned. So I don't know that I fully
agree with the move towards the full game over, but
I do think Wyoming is going to come in here
and get their share. We're looking at a team total
of seventy eight and a half here. They just played
South Dakota and got to one oh six. However, South
Dakota is a team that will go is willing to
go up and down the floor with Wyoming, which is
why you got that one hundred and eighty five points.
But ninety three against Dartmouth, one oh one against Denver,
et cetera, et cetera. Down the line, they've been impressive
scoring the basketball. They'll probably take South Dakota State out
of their comfort zone a little bit here because this
is a team that will defensive, rebound, and push immediately,
so it kind of forces pace. And I know I
often say that on the home floor, I expect the
home team to dictate tempo for more than half of
the forty minutes here, it might be an even split
twenty twenty eight. Wyomings that different of a team here
for South Dakota State. So for me, it's going to
be Wyoming over seventy eight and a half team total.
I think they'll get the seventy nine in this one,
and hopefully that clicks to the second half of our
parlay here. But Wyoming's been really really impressive, and I'm
interested to see how they do here in the Mountain
West against the Mountain West competition because so far the
results have been really really good. They've developed a style
and they're sticking to it and they're playing it well.
The shooting, by the way, for this team, for those
who don't know, really good three point shooting team, really
good two point shooting team. A little bit of the
defense is picked up as well. I'll be on Wyoming.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the game is not at campus. It's at
the Sanford Pentagon, which probably helps Wyoming. Just to give
you more sort of you know, I would say that
that's probably better for Wyoming than going and going to
having to play a true road game at campus.
Speaker 2: I got the tournament right. The Summit tournament is held
there in the Pentagon. I think I.
Speaker 3: Believe they play a summit tournament there.
Speaker 1: They have a whole bunch of non conference They pretty
much now are getting some big time non conference games.
I think Mississippi State played a non conference game there
earlier this year. They've been doing it for a couple
of years now, so I would say, like, go back
and maybe look at some of the scores in those games.
I don't remember the softness of the rim, but I
remember a couple of years ago, I think Auburn and
Baylor played a pretty high scoring game at Sanford Pentagon.
Speaker 3: So that's where that game will be tonight.
Speaker 1: It's not on campus, it is in suit Falls at
the Samford Pentagon.
Speaker 3: And again, though I.
Speaker 1: Can't really disagree with that, Wyoming's probably get You know,
the other thing about South Dakota State, I've been down
on them so far this year.
Speaker 3: Now I do think that they're maybe improving a little bit.
Speaker 1: Of course, their head coach is now Drake's head coach,
and the new head coach, I believe was from I
think he was an assistant that got elevated to the
head coaching position.
Speaker 3: I'll have that. You'll have to fact check me on that.
But I caught some of South Dakota State.
Speaker 1: In the one tournament they played in over feast week,
and they were awful, just horrible against Irvine and against
Utah Valley. Who you know, Wyoming is a step up
in comp that that's kind of the same level of competition,
Like if you want to look at Wyoming levels of
competition for for South Dakota State so far this year,
it would be Northern Iowa who they lost to, It
would be Utah Valley who they lost to got crushed,
and it would be you see Irvine, who they also
lost to and got crushed. If Wyoming is doing the
crushing rob they're gonna go over that that number right like,
they're gonna probably score ninety eighty eighty five. So if
that's the case, I think you've got a good one
with the team total.
Speaker 2: And the key is the teams that you've rattled off
there at. Now, Utah Valley is a pretty efficient team,
but quick check of their schedule shows nobody honestly that
plays at tempo.
Speaker 1: Yeah, even go to go to that opener. Merrimack plays
as slow as can be. They're just gonna sit in
the zone. So you're right, they haven't seen much of
this pace yet this year.
Speaker 2: Sixty six points there, Oregon doesn't play with pace. They
got to eighty three. Of course they're a Power five
conference team, but it will be interesting to see how
South Dakota State tries to handle this. Like I say,
I do feel like Wyoming can control a little bit
of the pace longer than you would expect. Not a
true road team here, but semi road team to do.
So we'll ride that, We'll route for seventy nine points here,
and hopefully we click on a two teamer and get
ourselves back into the plus category.
Speaker 1: All right, we can move along. There is still a
couple of games to talk about. I see Bayou popped
into the chat. He's at Alabama A and M. Is
a live home dog tonight. North Alabama has won three
in a row, but haven't played in twelve days and
now play a true road game where Alabama A and
have already beat Charleston Southern. They oh, they have Gramblings,
old head coach who brought Grambling to the dance multiple
times in the swack. Well, I'll say like I was,
I was very fortunate to get a win with Coastal
Carolina earlier this year against Alabama A and M.
Speaker 3: And they just they hung around there.
Speaker 1: They're very, very scrappy team.
Speaker 3: They made that game really ugly.
Speaker 1: It was a game that I felt like Coastal Carolina
should have destroyed them, and they ended up I kind
of got lucky to win by seven. That game was
like they came all the way back and cut it
to like one with like two minutes left, and I
won on some free throws there. To Bayou's point, they
don't play They don't play many home games. They don't
get many home games. It's one of those swack teams
that's often trying to pay the bills, right Rob. They
went to Indiana, they went to Clemson. But you know,
they probably have had more home games than most in
this league. They you know, and they've been good at home.
They knocked off Charleston Southern, that's a nice win. As
by you said, they knocked off linden Wood, and they
knocked off Tennessee State. So you know, this is a
team that is let me just checked the standings here.
I believe, yeah, five and zero at home this year,
and I gotta imagine that North Alabama and Alabama A
and M is at least a little bit of an
in state, right. I think there's only five D one,
maybe five or sixty one Alabama schools, maybe seven, I
don't remember, but again, got to be like a little
bit of juice there for Alabama and M.
Speaker 3: So I kind of agree with Bayo.
Speaker 2: What do you think, Well, the North Alabama side is
the one that I would be more familiar with here,
and because last year they were a team that was
a pretty good bed On, they had the bed On
signal on them for most of the year. They wound
up being a twenty plus win team. I'm forgetting the
exact record, but I know they went into the twenties
and they did a lot of points spread covering. But
to start the season, when I looked at them, you
see three brand new starters on this team. Now, a
couple elevated from the program like that. They're not transfers
coming in learning a new system, but they lost key
members that could shoot from beyond the arc last year
and this year you look at their three point numbers
and it's just not the same with North Alabama here. Thus,
you know the five and four record. Obviously, there's a
couple of power teams in there, Mississippi State, who I
think we have all come to find out that Mississippi
State and the SEC plays not gonna farewell because Mississippi
State has not done very well so far this season.
Clemson they lose to, but other than that, they haven't
played a batch of impressive team. San Francisco's in kind
of a down year as well. I just thought that
replacing the three guys that were the key cogs last
year for the I'm looking right now the twenty four
and eleven team is what they were. But points spread wise,
they were absolutely like a money printing machine. I think it.
I thought it was gonna take them a little while
to get rolling here, if in fact they even do
get rolling. But as you look through the way they've
been shooting this year, it's just not good. And it's
nowhere near the level of shooting that they had last year,
especially from three point range. So I could understand. I'm
not as familiar with the Alabama A and M side,
but I could definitely put up a case for fading
North Alabama. They're not the team that they were last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they literally lost like the best players
in the history of the school. So like that's that's
the thing. I mean, Jacari Lane, Daniel Ortiz, like that
that was the best team Northern Alabama has ever had. Like,
those guys are just not replaceable for a team like that.
So I've so I kind of came into the season
like all right, like they might be a little bit
of a fade. But to by and by you I
see talking about it in the chat, like Tony Tony
puliol is a tremendous coach, he does actually have a
good amount back from last year. So it's like, I
wouldn't be surprised if if he's competitive in the A
SOUN and this team is competitive in the A SUN again.
But the question you have to ask, and this was
at least the case earlier in the year to me,
was how much of a tax are you paying for
last year?
Speaker 3: Right like?
Speaker 1: They literally had the best team that they've ever had
at that school.
Speaker 3: Now we're nine game, you know, they're nine games into
the season.
Speaker 1: I would say that maybe that's you know that that
tax was starting to go away, But then they beat
San Francisco right like, so they go out and they
go on the road and knock off San Francisco has
like a seventeen point underdog, So I would say the
tax is probably back right like now, and you can
see it with the way the market is moving up
from two now to three and a half. So I
really am puzzled here, and this was one I just
I think you can make cases for both sides.
Speaker 3: I certainly don't.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I trust like I can't trust
the North like that one result against San Francisco does
not have me thinking that this is last year's team.
Speaker 3: But at the same time.
Speaker 1: I like Tony Pulil a lot too, and I think
I wouldn't be surprised if he just ends up having
a great team this year with the guys he has,
because he's a really good coach. So that is a
interesting game that doubt I'll I don't think I can
make a bet in that game because there's just two
to me, like, I feel like I can make a
pretty strong case for both sides. But very interesting game
right there.
Speaker 2: You might see some progression out of North Alabama. And
again the positive that we should paint for them is
that it's not like they went out and got transfers
that had to come and fit in. The new players
are from within that were in the system last year.
The problem, the negative I would have with them is
poor shooting on the road just doesn't seem to be
a sustainable thing at times. And again, the progression when
it comes to a Sun play, the more games these
guys get under their belt, the better the team becomes.
May become mid season I'm thinking a little bit differently.
I'm just looking at their point spread results here, adam
three and three over the course of the last six.
But I think if you wanted to shave it down
and wanted to see if you were seeing some signs
of progression here out of this team three and one
the last four big Dog cover against Clemson getting twenty
five and a half, lost the game huge, but did
get to the number, wind up losing straight up by
fourteen to Chat as an eight and a half point dog,
lose cover against Jacksonville State, generally a good defensive team,
and then win against San Francisco as you mentioned, which
is really a surprise five and one over the total
though as far as a team total is concerned, in
their last six team totals could be something you might
want to start isolating here with this team.
Speaker 1: All right, one more game I believe that we haven't
talked about, and I'm pretty yeah, I'm pretty sure we've
got one more game on the board today. That would
be Bayou Bett's hometown team, see if he's still in
the chat. That is the Southeast Louisianallians, who I would say,
for like, I've been mostly impressed by them, this year.
I mean they hung around with They hung around with
a couple of big teams right well, I mean Mississippi
State and Georgia Tech qualify as as big names. I
don't know if either of those teams are very good
this year. They had a really nice win over Navy
that was out in Wilmington as part of an NTE.
That's a very good Navy team this year. And they
won that game, and then they knocked off Houston Christian,
you know, which was again like that was I would
say a pretty competitive even matchup. But they went on
the road to knock off Houston Christian over the weekend.
This to me at home, they should crush this team. Now,
it's easy said than done. But like East Texas A
and M there their redeeming quality if they have one
rob is the fact that they'll play like eleven guys
and none of them are really different than the other,
Like you know what I mean, they just have bodies.
So it's like, I guess they have depth, but is
it really depth if no one's very good, that's my
that's my question. They got blasted by McNeese State on Friday.
I don't know, my gut, says Southeast Louisiana beats them.
Speaker 3: If they beat them, they probably cover. But I wish
I had more on this one.
Speaker 2: That is.
Speaker 3: That's that's all I got. Do you have anything to
add to this?
Speaker 1: Southeast Louiana, Louisiana, Texas A and M, East Texas A
and M. That's a mouthful, thrilling affair. I believe it's
Ham and Louisiana tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, really quick. We did talk about East Texas A
and M last week, and I fully remember you saying
that they have eleven interchangeable players. And it was against
McNeice and they went and got destroyed by thirty. You know,
they did play Yukon. That would be the only East
Texas A and M game that I have paid attention
to this season. In that game against Yukon, it's hard
to gauge. Danny Hurley just spread minutes all over the
place against them, one by twenty four, kind of got
off to a sluggish start and then hit the gas
pedal a little bit to get the separation in the
second half. But I don't know that it's a game
that Yukon really cared about. They probably could have won
by forty if they wanted to hard to make a
case for East Texas A and M just based on
result history here. They did be army, one of the
worst teams in college basketball this year, so they got
that going for them. But again, it's conference on the road,
and it's a short priced home favor against a team
that really doesn't have let's call it somewhat of an
identity other than they play fast, because they do rotate
a lot of guys in and out their paces up there.
And let's split that up real quick here. I'll make
this point. We've made it before. Tempo adjusted tempo on
its face value isn't always quite what you think it is.
If you break it up by average possession lanked at them.
The East Texas A and M team, they give up
shots extremely quickly, and if Southeast Louisiana wants, in fact
twenty first fastest in the nation, if Southeast Louisiana wants
to get into a running match with them, all of
a sudden, four and a half looks a lot smaller
when the point totals get higher. So we'll see how
Southeastern Louisiana plays this when they're not generally a fast team,
not generally a good shooting team, but could fall into that.
Sometimes these fall into YMCA style games and you wind
up with a game that gets up and over the total.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bayou says, you know.
Speaker 1: They pointed out they played the Mississippi State game was
closed throughout like BYU's my Southeast Louisiana guy, Like, I'm
not even and considering a bet for against them without
checking in with him first. Uh, And my number came
out right on the nose four and a half. So
this was this was a pretty easy skip for me.
But it's also one of those like I know it's
a short slate today, this would be one of the
games where it's like, even though my number is right
on the money, I'm pretty confident that Southeast Louisiana wins
this game. Like I don't really want to lay five,
but I'm pretty confident that they they win. So if
you really like had to parlay, like if you're like
a part you know you like to do like two
team moneyline parlay, which it's not really my style, but
I know some people will do that. I think that
would be I think you could Southeast Louisiana could be
one of your legs. The problem is I don't know that.
There's many options to uh.
Speaker 3: Pair with tonight. Maybe Wyoming.
Speaker 1: That would if if you pinned me down for a
two team money line parlay tonight, that's what it would be.
Southeast Louisiana, Wyoming.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't want to go like come out and say
I'm recommending that, but that would be my two team
moneyline parlay if you forced me to pick one for
Monday night when there's seven games on the board. All right,
we have we managed an hour off of this slate, Rob,
I didn't know if we were going to be able
to do it, but we managed an hour off of
this slate. Of course, if you missed the beginning of
the show, we already did the full breakdown of Tennessee Louisville,
which is a game tomorrow, but the goal of that
was to free up more time to talk about Tuesday games.
So we won't cover Tennessee Louisville on the show tomorrow,
but we did cover it here and we will clip
that and make it into its own video which will
go on the wager Talk YouTube channel. So if you
miss that, check that out at some point today. That
will likely be up later today. Rob and I are
going to team or today, so two team parlay. Since
there's only two of us on the show, let's see
if we can hit this and get ourselves back into
the plus.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go.
Speaker 1: Houston Christian plus fifteen. That's a three percent client play
for me, and Rob is going with Wyoming team total
over seventy eight and a half. We'll call it plus
two sixty four odds. I'm sure you can probably do
a little bit better than that if you shop it
around two minutes left, Rob, you have anything to promote,
you have anything up on the site for today?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, real quick? I will say this guy.
First of all is the full court. There is a
full court package right three days with the best. I'm
not sure if it pertains to the show. If it does,
checkwagertalk dot com for college hoop selections. But again, just
to go off topic really fast here it is. College
bowl season began on Saturday. There's a bowl special offered
by wager talk dot com right now. If you're into
the bowl games, which we'll resume again tomorrow. Had pretty
good success opening night with the Washington Huskies game. So
you can pick up a NFL college football, NBA, college basketball,
all kinds of packages over at wigertalk dot com. Go
ahead and check it out. Tomorrow will be five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 1: Absolutely five dollars Tuesday tomorrow. I just gave you what'll
likely be my only client. Play in college basketball tonight,
Houston Christian plus fifteen. I may play football. That's where
I've been winning. Can't win in college basketball for whatever reason,
but I've been hitting the football plays, so you.
Speaker 3: Know, it is what it is.
Speaker 1: I'm sure it'll turn at some point, but we're going
to lean into football right now while they continue to hit.
Had the bills in the vikings yesterday. It's a nice
day for me and I may play the Monday night game.
We've reached the end of the show. I hope everyone
has a great day. We will see you guys tomorrow morning,
ten am. More full court Press. Have a great day, everybody,