Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Hello, welcome to the Football Glory Holme Podcast.
Speaker 1: We're listening to that the podcast SoundCloud streaker, watching us
Speaker 1: live on the news uh stream yard live on YouTube, Facebook,
Speaker 1: whatever the fuck, however the fuck we take each and
Speaker 1: everyone's glory's secrets tuning in this week I was supposed
Speaker 1: to be I'm going here as always, Bye, my good
Speaker 1: buddy Longhorn. Long hold what's up? Buck?
Speaker 2: No hol ride all ride who both sea fists? Here
Speaker 2: we go Week number five in the NFL, baby Boy,
Speaker 2: and the theme of this week is going to be
Speaker 2: playing both sides of the coin, playing some middles, if
Speaker 2: you will. We're gonna be doing lots of tease ups,
Speaker 2: lots of tees downs, and then coming back on the
Speaker 2: other side of the same coin and trying to double
Speaker 2: up our money. Most even speaking of playing both sides,
Speaker 2: it's kind of like how Israel always likes to say
Speaker 2: they love America. This seemed to be perpetually involved with
Speaker 2: killing our presidents and our cultural leaders, all the while
Speaker 2: getting huge amounts of our tax dollars. It's really fucking weird.
Speaker 2: So Bozevas, let's channel our innermost money hungry juice self
Speaker 2: and fine all the winners this week in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Hit that button. Whether you are for the funny, it's
Speaker 2: a question for fun.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun. We're
Speaker 1: all gonna have much fucking fun.
Speaker 2: When the plastic surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll
Speaker 2: be whistling symphony due to out of your assholes. Are
Speaker 2: you out here for the money? Anybody tells your money
Speaker 2: is the root of all evil.
Speaker 1: Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness.
Speaker 2: Look at the money, money and smile on my face.
Speaker 2: Here to here, baby, You have come to the right place.
Speaker 2: Two questions for you people. Do you like football? What
Speaker 2: a stupid question that has? What a stupid question?
Speaker 3: You ask a lot of stupid questions.
Speaker 2: My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you
Speaker 2: like money? I'm a big fan of money.
Speaker 1: I like it, I use it. I have a little
Speaker 1: I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator.
Speaker 2: I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where
Speaker 2: you come in. That's right, Adams Center. That's exactly where
Speaker 2: we come in. Visit our Patreon page and check out
Speaker 2: all the winning opportunities. That's Patreon dot com, slash bet
Speaker 2: Underscore FGH become our football partners for life, so that
Speaker 2: you can bet football the right way, the winning way,
Speaker 2: the bet FGH way. And as always here on the
Speaker 2: sports patio, we got that TV's lower. We got the
Speaker 2: beer heavily flowing tonight and right now it is everybody's
Speaker 2: most unfortunate favorite part of the show. My friend, tell
Speaker 2: the people all about your horrible, disgusting how choice of
Speaker 2: the week. I still drunk.
Speaker 1: I feel right, Donna, thank you very much, sir, sir. Tonight,
Speaker 1: I am bringing a loose cannon by Heaven heavy sorry
Speaker 1: seize beer in Baltimore, Maryland, three out of five stars,
Speaker 1: and I'm drinking it's not longhorn. Because did you know
Speaker 1: that on this day in eighteen thirty five, the first
Speaker 1: shots were fired in the Texas War for Independence. Now,
Speaker 1: a lot of people think that this was because the
Speaker 1: Mexican Army tried to take the cannon from the good
Speaker 1: people Gonzales Tejas as it was known then, and that
Speaker 1: set off a fire rebellion that spread like wildfire across
Speaker 1: the territory. But the true story is the back of
Speaker 1: the Mexican Army beat the Spanish army and took their
Speaker 1: sovereignty back. They needed people to populate the territory known
Speaker 1: as Tejas, because the newly formed Mexican government feared that
Speaker 1: the United States would tried to steal Tejas now that
Speaker 1: they didn't have any fear of repercusion, any fear of
Speaker 1: repercussions from the powerful Spanish nation, So the Mexican government
Speaker 1: set out recruits into America, tried to convince settlers to
Speaker 1: come to the vast territory. In exchange for their courage
Speaker 1: and travel, they would be given free land, full Mexican citizenship,
Speaker 1: and of course the number one resource in all of Mexico,
Speaker 1: free lawn care service. Well, it turns out that the
Speaker 1: Mexicans were derelict in their lawnmowing duty and the people
Speaker 1: Gonzales grass is way too fucking tall. And even after
Speaker 1: the Maxons did come and mow one last time, they
Speaker 1: refused to fucking weed eat first of all, Secondly, they
Speaker 1: refused to blow off the fucking porch at the saloon,
Speaker 1: and they missed the spot under the goddamn cannon. And
Speaker 1: the text was like, hey, you ain't done until you mow.
Speaker 1: Want the fucking cannon and then Maxans were like, it's
Speaker 1: the mocha, we can Barlin move a boto and that's
Speaker 1: when the shit hit the fucking fan. So ultimately that
Speaker 1: is how the candy got involved in the story. So
Speaker 1: all the shirts that say, you know, come and take it,
Speaker 1: they really should kind of read come and rake it.
Speaker 1: But either way, cheers to Texas independence. Baby, this is
Speaker 1: the day it's starting for us to be fucking numero uno.
Speaker 2: See I can appreciate that story, and I can go
Speaker 2: along with that. Sounds legit to me. But the story
Speaker 2: that I heard was that there was it wasn't Gonzalez,
Speaker 2: it was a guy named Gonzales Stein, and then there
Speaker 2: was a guy on the other side named Davy Crockett Stein,
Speaker 2: and somebody all higher up convinced both these people that
Speaker 2: they hate each other and they sure to fight all
Speaker 2: the while both sides were paying heavy, heavy tax to somebody.
Speaker 2: It wasn't sure where it was going, somewhere overseas that
Speaker 2: we we on parts unknown. That that's the story I heard.
Speaker 1: It's always nos all right, girls, were do the podcast.
Speaker 1: Now We're going to every game in the NFL in
Speaker 1: the air tonights, and of course we get you pay
Speaker 1: for those free picks as we always do, but right
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Speaker 1: of all ages. Oh my god, okay, it's happening.
Speaker 2: Do you think is happening right now? Excuse me? What
Speaker 2: is happening here?
Speaker 1: What is happening? What the fuck just happened? Oh?
Speaker 2: You know what's happening.
Speaker 1: It's time for all those wins coming in the air
Speaker 1: to Nightmber. All right, boys and girls, it is time
Speaker 1: to get into every game in the NFL in the
Speaker 1: air tonight, and we're gonna start. Oh you sounding my blood,
Speaker 1: goddamn London games over in London. We're Lawhorns. Cleveland Brown's
Speaker 1: home game, not quiet home. I don't know. You know,
Speaker 1: they do like dogs in England, especially English bulldogs, and
Speaker 1: I think that's pretty much the mascot of Fleeveland. So hey,
Speaker 1: it's a fucking home game they're hosting those Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 1: And I was looking at preseason lines in this one,
Speaker 1: so I had this one at plus seven, Vegas headed
Speaker 1: plus seven? Should lock step on that, it's down to
Speaker 1: three and a half, we're three and a half and
Speaker 1: then live. Uh yeah, we're sitting three three on this one.
Speaker 2: Well as always good eight mate to the people crossed
Speaker 2: the pond. Now, before we get started with a handicap,
Speaker 2: I just I was just thinking, because Israel is on
Speaker 2: top of my mind for all the wrong reasons right now.
Speaker 2: But when is the first game in Israel for the
Speaker 2: NFL going to be? Because if I know my good
Speaker 2: Jewish friends, they're not missing out on this cash cow
Speaker 2: called the NFL. So they're not gonna like that these uh, both.
Speaker 1: Teams are gonna lose, and somehow it's gonna be their fault.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but either way, you know, they'll see
Speaker 1: a lot of concessions.
Speaker 2: They'll say this, they'll say that game didn't count. We
Speaker 2: want our money back, that you can't have a tie,
Speaker 2: so that they'll rts send us our money. But let's
Speaker 2: lay off the juice for a little wile. I think
Speaker 2: we've we've We've done enough to get kicked off YouTube,
Speaker 2: I'm sure. So we'll check the analytics after this show
Speaker 2: and see just see how long this lasted. Probably not
Speaker 2: very long as far as this game goes. I am
Speaker 2: going to be on Minnesota here, not that I look.
Speaker 2: We talked last week that I'm kind of in lockstep
Speaker 2: with Cleveland on what I know. You're bad, Cleveland. I
Speaker 2: know what you do. I get it now. You play
Speaker 2: really good at home, and you suck on the road.
Speaker 2: And this is not only on the road, it's across
Speaker 2: the pond in parts unknown, So it sucks. Well speak
Speaker 2: speaking to suck. They're going away from Flacco, who has
Speaker 2: sucked really bad, and they're they're throwing in the rookie,
Speaker 2: the third round draft pick, Dylan Gabriel, And you can
Speaker 2: go and hit that drop again if you wanted to
Speaker 2: both it, or you can say this, or you can
Speaker 2: say they're stupid for even playing him. Either way, I
Speaker 2: can't think of a worse situation, like if I was
Speaker 2: setting up if I wanted to make sure my rookie
Speaker 2: quarterback had the worst possible start ever, is there a
Speaker 2: what what would you do? More traveling overseas which he's
Speaker 2: never done. Obviously, starting against I don't know, the most
Speaker 2: complicated defensive coordinator in the league. One that confuses veterans like,
Speaker 2: what is this? Is this a setup to fail? I
Speaker 2: don't get it. You know, the in Minnesota's coming off
Speaker 2: a loss overseas. They were in Ireland, lost lost to Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: Now they just take a short trip down to England
Speaker 2: and they are looking to bounce back from that line.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is you talk about throwing you to
Speaker 2: the Wolves. This is I'm all on Minnesota here. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So the Cleveland Brown coaching staff, organization, ownership, You've lost
Speaker 1: your goddamn mine. I've never been a believer in Dylan Gabriel.
Speaker 1: I wasn't a believer in him. Where was he before Oregon?
Speaker 1: Now I've lost my train of thought.
Speaker 2: Was he in Washington?
Speaker 1: No, Indiana? Maybe somewhere runner there? Either way, it doesn't
Speaker 1: matter anybody playing the organ system. They've proven that that
Speaker 1: fucking coach is awesome. He's one of the best coaches
Speaker 1: all college football. He fucking turns chicken shit into chicken
Speaker 1: salad constantly at that position. And I mean, you said
Speaker 1: it all. I don't have anything else to add. I
Speaker 1: didn't even run numbers in this game. It's not worth it.
Speaker 1: I have no fucking comfort Dylan Gabriel. I could run
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco numbers and just put them up there, But
Speaker 1: at the other side we got Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: has been a fucking disaster from Minnesota if you look
Speaker 1: inside of his numbers, a fucking disaster. This dude sucks
Speaker 1: worse than he's ever sucked in his entire life. And
Speaker 1: how is that possible when every other fucking veteran comes
Speaker 1: in this system and that plays so great. I guess
Speaker 1: the dude just fucking sucks.
Speaker 2: Well, he's okay, but he's better than JJ. And they
Speaker 2: they won a game with JJ.
Speaker 1: No, I'm not saying they're not gonna win, but I'm
Speaker 1: just saying, like, that's the reason why I didn't run
Speaker 1: the numbers, because what am I gonna run them on
Speaker 1: Fucking a rookie quarterback that I got nothing on and
Speaker 1: a fucking quarterback who sucked balls for two weeks. Like, no,
Speaker 1: I'm out, So I'm out on this game. I don't
Speaker 1: give a fuck. But yeah, there's no there's zero chance
Speaker 1: that could ever back Cleveland in the situation now, Flaka
Speaker 1: was starting. You could probably talk me into it just
Speaker 1: because maybe that defense travels, you know, and Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: has been so fucking bad. Yeah maybe. But this number though,
Speaker 1: here's what confused me the long one. Vegas and I
Speaker 1: were both at minus seven preseason. It's cutting half, it's
Speaker 1: cutting half. And this is with a rookie quarterback who's
Speaker 1: never seen the field in a terrible situation like you
Speaker 1: just laid out, yet our number is cut in half.
Speaker 1: I don't understand that, and that scares me. So that's
Speaker 1: another reason why I wouldn't play. Another reason I just wouldn't.
Speaker 2: Play this game. Yeah, well it's because Minnesota is it
Speaker 2: has underperformed dramatically from what some and they're dealing with massive,
Speaker 2: massive injuries. So like there's massive injuries on the offensive
Speaker 2: line for Minnesota. So in this should be a very,
Speaker 2: very low scoring game. Points are going to be a premium.
Speaker 2: So this game thirty six ish.
Speaker 1: Yeah, thirty six and a half. That's the grossest lowest
Speaker 1: total that we've ever sent overseas. You know, I would apologize,
Speaker 1: but you know what, Fuck you England.
Speaker 2: And one last thing, oh by the way.
Speaker 1: All our listeners in England, which we do have a
Speaker 1: lot of we love you. We love you guys, so
Speaker 1: please please keep listening, please keep watching. Sorry, I apologize
Speaker 1: personally for this football game that you're about to have
Speaker 1: to watch. You'd be better off going to watch the
Speaker 1: high school as you call football game the soccer rather
Speaker 1: than going watching this. This is gonna be a shit show.
Speaker 2: So just out, I just I don't want to go
Speaker 2: too far on Carson Wentz because he is working his
Speaker 2: way back in. This is a new system with him
Speaker 2: and he's only paid what oh is it two full games?
Speaker 2: He was thirty for forty six for three hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty yards and now he did have two mistakes and
Speaker 2: interceptions and took six sacks.
Speaker 1: Let's give some let's what's his pff greak is? I
Speaker 1: guaranteed it's horrific.
Speaker 2: Well his QBR was forty one, so yeah, it's it's
Speaker 2: gonna be bad. All I'm saying is the completion percentage,
Speaker 2: the yardage is there. Give him some time to clean
Speaker 2: up the mistakes, maybe maybe learn some check that, like,
Speaker 2: you know, to check with me. It's in the hot round.
Speaker 1: And the what's his name fucking stepped in last year
Speaker 1: and was dynamite from the very fucking jump. Who Sammy
Speaker 1: d Well.
Speaker 2: I hate to tell you, but Sammy D's a better
Speaker 2: quarterback than Carson Wentz. So it's not they're not gonna
Speaker 2: go fourteen all you know, They're not going fourteen and
Speaker 2: three with Carson Wentz. But they don't have to. They
Speaker 2: just need to go. They just need to win this
Speaker 2: game by three and a half points.
Speaker 1: You know, they're over Runner right now in Vegas like
Speaker 1: seven and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, and that's that's that's what it
Speaker 2: should be. I guess, you know, like, I mean, what
Speaker 2: are you gonna do? What's who's the quarterback? I'm looking
Speaker 2: up what's his name? Carson Wentz is uh, he's he's
Speaker 2: graading out as fifty eight and JJ was grading out
Speaker 2: as a fifty five, so he's actually grading out better
Speaker 2: than JJ. So but but it's the offensive line. It's
Speaker 2: the offensive line. Like the injuries are just that they
Speaker 2: got some clusters there. So I'm encouraged. When they get
Speaker 2: these guys back, I'm encouraged, and some more time with
Speaker 2: with O'Connell in the system, I'm encouraged that they can
Speaker 2: still be close to what I kind of thought they
Speaker 2: would be. And let's not forget Green Bay's wheels have
Speaker 2: kind of fallen off, so it's look, it's Detroit is
Speaker 2: looking like they're just they're just still the fucking beast
Speaker 2: of the of the North again. So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we'll move on to Oh those j
Speaker 1: e Just no Dallas Camels on this one.
Speaker 2: Oh cows.
Speaker 1: Let's see, I had the cows minus one, Vegas had
Speaker 1: a minus one and a half. They're sitting at two
Speaker 1: and a half. So pretty much what we expected Longhorn
Speaker 1: on this one. Now, this game did world opening to
Speaker 1: pick them. All the money went to the cow, so
Speaker 1: the market corrected itself immediately back to what Vegas and
Speaker 1: I thought preseason. So I should do have some thoughts
Speaker 1: on this game, but I will let you take it
Speaker 1: away what you got.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this one I've gone back and forth on,
Speaker 2: but I have landed on the jets. So Motivias, you
Speaker 2: want to get that sounder button ready because we're gonna
Speaker 2: go ahead and hit the sounder on those New York Jets.
Speaker 2: So let that siren go. That means that this is
Speaker 2: a call for the four, the four New York Flag.
Speaker 1: Football Jets to be obviously have your pickup.
Speaker 2: No, I would never in a million goddamn years do that.
Speaker 2: But let me just say this. The only way I
Speaker 2: lose this and there's a good chance I lose it
Speaker 2: because obviously the Cowboys are favorite.
Speaker 1: It's just Daklus plus how many units.
Speaker 2: We're doing two on this one. We're going to this one.
Speaker 2: I like this one. Look, Dak beats bad teams. That
Speaker 2: just flat out he beats bad teams, and that is
Speaker 2: my concern. But everything, literally everything else points me to
Speaker 2: the Jets here number one. They're going for They're desperate.
Speaker 2: The new head coach who everybody says he's so good,
Speaker 2: I would love to see him actually prove that he's
Speaker 2: so good here in this spot against a team that
Speaker 2: he has a very legitimate chance to get his first
Speaker 2: win as an NFL head coach. Justin Fields, Justin Fields
Speaker 2: should go bonkers on this shit horrible Cowboy defense. They
Speaker 2: got nobody. They won't be able to stop the run.
Speaker 2: And with Fields and the running game of the Jets,
Speaker 2: and I feel like you're about to quep of a
Speaker 2: drop here, I couldn't tell uh that they should be
Speaker 2: able to run all day long on this cowboy demons.
Speaker 2: Keep Dak and that offense off the field. And my
Speaker 2: last part of this handicap is, well, there's two more parks.
Speaker 2: Number one, Stas Gardner, I need you to be the
Speaker 2: Sauce Gardener you were previously when you were an All Pro.
Speaker 2: He's not been quite that, but in but in this
Speaker 2: game has been great. He's he's not grating yet, he
Speaker 2: hasn't grated out great great, like I'll look it up.
Speaker 2: I'll look it up when I sent to you. But
Speaker 2: but in this matchup, George Pickens is the perfect perfect
Speaker 2: player for him to be able to shut down because
Speaker 2: sauces hands on physical That's how he wins as a cornerback.
Speaker 2: And the only way George Pickens wins his hands on
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a fight match. And I love the
Speaker 2: matchup for Sauce there. And if you take away Pickens
Speaker 2: from this cowboy offense, good luck. So and then the
Speaker 2: last thing is who in the fuck are the Cowboys
Speaker 2: to be favored on the fucking roll? This is a terrible,
Speaker 2: terrible team. Everything points to the Jets here for me,
Speaker 2: except for the Dak factor, because look, let's face it,
Speaker 2: we give Deak a lot of shit, but he is
Speaker 2: he's a really good quarterback man. He well, you know
Speaker 2: at times, Yeah, you're right, you're you're we're probably playing
Speaker 2: down in the middle more than most. But a lot
Speaker 2: of people give him more shit than he deserves. So
Speaker 2: I'm a sounder on jets. Take him with two oh
Speaker 2: I want the two units on the the two and
Speaker 2: a half and on the money line. You got that right,
Speaker 2: So it's two and two oh four unitsky, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: so four units total, and I'll look up I'll look
Speaker 2: up Sauce and see what he's currently grading at.
Speaker 1: Okay, so on this one we got pwer Ringkings calling
Speaker 1: for the Jets. Buckets are on the Jets. V two's
Speaker 1: no called D two Jets. I've got a no call
Speaker 1: on totals at forty seven and a half. The BBG
Speaker 1: grades us out twenty four to twenty four, which will
Speaker 1: not quite hit long horn sounder, but it would cover
Speaker 1: the two units on the two and a half LOGA,
Speaker 1: Longhorn said, I mean, obviously everybody grades out well like
Speaker 1: quarterback against a shitty fucking cal secondary, that's a given.
Speaker 1: But dag heshad goats half a point versus this Jets team. Now,
Speaker 1: the Jets running game it grades out flat. It's not negative,
Speaker 1: but it's not positive. But the Cowboys running game does
Speaker 1: lose a half a point. So where I took a
Speaker 1: deep dive on this one was, look, the question is
Speaker 1: not if fields is going to be successful. Everyone is
Speaker 1: successful versus Dallas defense. But if you know the two
Speaker 1: games that Dallas says either one or tied, it's when
Speaker 1: Dak is his most successful. And we talked about this
Speaker 1: in the offseason, that this new offense would have a
Speaker 1: lot of pre stap motion. That was all the buzz,
Speaker 1: and Dak's never been good with that. Well, obviously the
Speaker 1: coaching staff has learned that very quickly, because they're still
Speaker 1: running below average pre snap motion plays twenty three percent
Speaker 1: of the season. Lee average is twenty seven and Dak
Speaker 1: has been fucking awful at it, four point nine yards
Speaker 1: per ten with pre snap motion. Now, the thing they
Speaker 1: are doing at above average clip is at snap motion
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent league average of twenty nine percent, and
Speaker 1: Dak is better at that than pre snap but he's
Speaker 1: still below league average. Dak doesn't like a lot of
Speaker 1: moving parts. He's more like Aaron Rodgers likes everybody. He's stationary,
Speaker 1: don't move, want to see what I see, and that's
Speaker 1: how he likes to play. But the thing that they
Speaker 1: still do second most is Zach's favorite thing, and that
Speaker 1: is the no motion and his YPA is seven point
Speaker 1: three on those plays. That's his best metric. So the
Speaker 1: question became to me, can the Jets stop that? Well,
Speaker 1: they're below league average that asks that motion and above
Speaker 1: leave average at no motion, so it's kind of really
Speaker 1: of a wash, which is why Dak grays out right
Speaker 1: about on his average here in this game. Now, the
Speaker 1: Jets do run more zone than man, which is an
Speaker 1: advantage to them because Dak has been so much worse
Speaker 1: than zone than man. You've seen he's at his best
Speaker 1: when he gets man with CD, man with Pickings, man
Speaker 1: with Dez. That's when Zach is best. He doesn't do
Speaker 1: well versus zone, and the Jets are very very good
Speaker 1: in their zone covers this year, but it's it's not
Speaker 1: a huge disparity overall. I can't find a matchup advantage
Speaker 1: for the Jets defense or Dak either way, which is
Speaker 1: why this game grades the way that it does as
Speaker 1: a tie. So I wanted to be with you. I
Speaker 1: wanted to be on the Jets. That was like one
Speaker 1: of the games I had circled, even as a deep
Speaker 1: dug into it. I just this game is gonna come
Speaker 1: down to, you know, execution on third down, nobody fucking
Speaker 1: up on special teams or turnover. This is gonna be
Speaker 1: a very tight game. It's gonna get swung one one
Speaker 1: way or the other on one of those funky fucking plays,
Speaker 1: or maybe a couple of them, and it might end
Speaker 1: up being a you know, double digit win one way
Speaker 1: or the other, just because of just funky shit. But
Speaker 1: as far as matchups schematics, these teams match up very
Speaker 1: well against each other two and a half points like
Speaker 1: that on the road. Like you said, the only way
Speaker 1: I could play it was the Jets. I really wanted
Speaker 1: to fucking take the Jets. I really wanted to take
Speaker 1: them on the money line and put them on like a
Speaker 1: money line parlay as well. So I don't disagree with
Speaker 1: you at all. I just couldn't get there schematically. Now,
Speaker 1: like I said, the BPG is with you one and
Speaker 1: most of my metrichs are with you, So I don't
Speaker 1: disagree with you at all.
Speaker 2: Well, this is the start of the Hall of Same
Speaker 2: coaching career of Aaron Glenn. That's no doubt one hundred
Speaker 2: gonna happen.
Speaker 1: So you know it's I mean, Bill Belichick lost in Cleveland,
Speaker 1: so you know.
Speaker 2: Whatever, Yeah, it's it's he's he's not. He didn't get
Speaker 2: hired because he's black. He got hurt because he's really
Speaker 2: really really really really really good. So it's this is
Speaker 2: this is what is he Jewish? Though?
Speaker 1: Really is?
Speaker 2: No? I don't think so they don't.
Speaker 1: They never never know. Let's move Oh god, let's move on.
Speaker 1: Ye goddamn Philadelphia Eagles, those den Verb Broncos, all right
Speaker 1: on this one. I had Philly five and a half.
Speaker 1: Vegas had them four and a half. It is currently
Speaker 1: three and a half, so Vegas is close to me
Speaker 1: on this one. I guess I was a little bit
Speaker 1: higher on Philly because I was pretty good. I was
Speaker 1: pretty high on them or two, so I had to
Speaker 1: be my Philly numbers a little bit off there. Longhorn
Speaker 1: on this one, though, if you look at the money,
Speaker 1: it is definitely coming in on Denver a little bit.
Speaker 1: Because we were at the five and a half of
Speaker 1: the World Open, which is what I had. It at
Speaker 1: preseason and we're down to three and a half. So
Speaker 1: now juice three and a half. We'll call three point
Speaker 1: seventy five somewhere running there. So if you're looking to
Speaker 1: lay it with Philly, I would advise doing that sooner
Speaker 1: than later. If you're looking to catch it with Denver,
Speaker 1: just wait a minute. But anyway, what do you got
Speaker 1: on this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I would love to catch a four with Denver
Speaker 2: because I am going to be on Denver here. They're
Speaker 2: they're kind of look, Philly is costing me dearly this season,
Speaker 2: like it's been. It's we're only through four weeks and
Speaker 2: I think they own at least two losses for me
Speaker 2: on the official on the official record, and that just
Speaker 2: can't happen because one of their one of their wins
Speaker 2: was on a blocked field goal that the Rams were
Speaker 2: gonna win the game. They were turning for a touchdown,
Speaker 2: so so couldn't didn't cover, didn't win, went the other way.
Speaker 2: And then of course we saw the block punt against
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay last week kind of kind of turned that
Speaker 2: game into a massive, massive lead for Philly that Tampa
Speaker 2: almost came back and won but couldn't quite get the
Speaker 2: win and didn't even get the cover because so the
Speaker 2: three and a half is really killing me. And once
Speaker 2: again we're sitting here with a three and a half
Speaker 2: point line, a juicy, juicy dog, and it's it's really
Speaker 2: worrying me. But the fact there's so many offensive line
Speaker 2: injuries for Philly. They cannot get anything going on offense.
Speaker 2: They cannot run the ball with with Sakuon Barkley because
Speaker 2: of that offensive line, and A. J. Brown has been
Speaker 2: an absolute no show. Don't know what's going on there.
Speaker 2: Is he gonna get traded. He's chirping every week he
Speaker 2: doesn't get the ball, he's chirping. So there's the Philly
Speaker 2: offense is a major major problem. If it if it
Speaker 2: wasn't really these fucking special team touchdowns. It again, they
Speaker 2: could they could literally be two and two right now.
Speaker 2: But I did not hit the sounder or I didn't
Speaker 2: make this like a big Dick pick of the week
Speaker 2: for reasons it well several reasons. Number one is bow Knicks.
Speaker 2: Bo Knicks is not playing well now. He's bo Nicks
Speaker 2: is four and seven is in his career as a dog,
Speaker 2: So it's it's just for whatever reason he's they've been
Speaker 2: lining up and beating teams in his short career when
Speaker 2: their favorites, like we saw it last week against Cincy Bullyball,
Speaker 2: just just they they roll teams with that good defense,
Speaker 2: that pass rush. If they can get the lead and
Speaker 2: open up that pass rush that Denver has and let
Speaker 2: that defense really flourish, they seem to thrive when they
Speaker 2: when they when they fall behind and they need bow
Speaker 2: knicks to kind of make some place to keep them
Speaker 2: in a game and even win it. That's when you're
Speaker 2: running running into some trouble. So you know, I couldn't
Speaker 2: hit the sounder, I couldn't do any kind of like
Speaker 2: you know, big day piggering ninth like that. But I
Speaker 2: do lean to Denver at the three and a half,
Speaker 2: and I would love, love, love to catch a four.
Speaker 2: Last thing on this is because I already talked about
Speaker 2: how lucky Philly has been and how they're they're not
Speaker 2: really a foreign oh team, but they are four and
Speaker 2: oh but they're not, but they are. So the last
Speaker 2: thing is Denver never fucking wins in Philly, like never,
Speaker 2: They're one in six all time. They don't win there.
Speaker 2: So it's just, you know, as much as I wanted
Speaker 2: to be all over Denver to win and cover. I'm
Speaker 2: just gonna I'm just gonna take them to cover and hope,
Speaker 2: just hope that they can get a lead, because we
Speaker 2: saw last week with Tampa Bay. If you don't get
Speaker 2: the lead and lean on Philly, you're just your your
Speaker 2: uphill battle is not good. So it's it's it's Denver
Speaker 2: for me with the points, all.
Speaker 1: Right, So this one was compeasing me, so I did
Speaker 1: a little bit deeper dive on it, and the power
Speaker 1: King had Philly. Like I said, I had a five
Speaker 1: and a half preseason, but the buckets on Denver B
Speaker 1: two's no call, D two's on Denver totals forty three
Speaker 1: and a half. I actually got it going under that.
Speaker 1: I've got this. The BBG grays at twenty twenty another tie,
Speaker 1: so go Denver Lo's ties, lots of ties. So this
Speaker 1: is an average matchup for Hurts, not the best. It's
Speaker 1: a terrible matchup for bo Knicks. But it's a bad
Speaker 1: matchup for Philly's running game. But you have to factor
Speaker 1: in the fact that Sekon's not being good so far
Speaker 1: this year, so that's in there. But it's an average,
Speaker 1: just an average matchup for Dimmer's running game as well,
Speaker 1: so no advantage there. Now, obviously it's a bad matchup
Speaker 1: for bow I try to find anything that he does,
Speaker 1: anything he does better than league average, and through all
Speaker 1: the stats that we build all of our models off of,
Speaker 1: there was not one.
Speaker 2: He has great hair above league average hair.
Speaker 1: That is true. Unfortunately they did not make it in
Speaker 1: the model.
Speaker 2: That has to be a point. That's gotta be a point.
Speaker 2: I don't give a shit. If you don't have a
Speaker 2: point on his hair, you need to redo your model.
Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 1: Fine, I'll go back to work in the morning. All right,
Speaker 1: he's twenty third at CPO, who plays EPA, twenty eighth QBR.
Speaker 1: He stinks And yeah you're probably thinking, no shit, bo Sebus.
Speaker 1: We all have eyes, we know he fucking sucks. Tell
Speaker 1: us something we don't know. All right, then, this Deedford
Speaker 1: defense is really good fourth overall and EPA for play,
Speaker 1: but they are sixteenth in defensive Russian success rate and
Speaker 1: another downgraded Berkley in this matchup. But again it's taken
Speaker 1: into count. He's already played games this year, and he's
Speaker 1: already played two of the best defensive rushing success rate
Speaker 1: teams in the league in Tampa Bay and the Rams,
Speaker 1: both top ten. His best game was against Kansas City.
Speaker 1: No shit, they're twenty ninth, so there could be an
Speaker 1: avenue for sake once who outperformed his grades to the
Speaker 1: BPG on this one. On the passing side of the ball, though,
Speaker 1: Denver is elite third in EPA six and success rate,
Speaker 1: but there are two spots of weakness that Philly could exploit.
Speaker 1: The only two spots of Denver grades up blow league
Speaker 1: average are against play action and against no motion. So
Speaker 1: the play action thing for Philly really doesn't exist so
Speaker 1: far for some reason this year. I don't know what
Speaker 1: they're doing, but historically this is Hurts best spots. I
Speaker 1: honestly don't know what the fuck they're doing in Philly
Speaker 1: play action versus Mande, which Denver plays the highest percentage
Speaker 1: of mand defensive league because they have fucking great corners obviously,
Speaker 1: So if there was ever a time to bust every
Speaker 1: play action pass you have out in the playbook, it
Speaker 1: is this game now. As far as the no motion goes,
Speaker 1: that's what Philly does most of the time, and Hurts
Speaker 1: gains over one hundred basis points with no motion versus
Speaker 1: any motion at all, and Denver is over seventy basis
Speaker 1: points worse than league average with no motion. It's their
Speaker 1: only real weakness. So we're gonna see how smart this
Speaker 1: Philly coaching staff is in this game. They should be
Speaker 1: able to establish Sake one, even if he's not great.
Speaker 1: He should get around four yards per carry, which is
Speaker 1: good enough to set the play action passes, which we
Speaker 1: have not seen from Philly all fucking season. Right now,
Speaker 1: they average four point four point twenty five play action
Speaker 1: passes a game. That number needs to be at least
Speaker 1: eight in this game. It's their only avenue to score
Speaker 1: on this Denver team except for special teams. As longhorn
Speaker 1: Off actually mentioned, they have scored a million points there.
Speaker 1: So I'll be watching this one closely to see what
Speaker 1: Philling Philly this coaching staff does. How well do they
Speaker 1: adjust to find these avenues that they actually can't exploit
Speaker 1: if they so choose, And of course I'll be watching
Speaker 1: to laugh at bow necks, as I always do so,
Speaker 1: but I've got nothing on this one. This is a
Speaker 1: This is a real learning stick game for me to
Speaker 1: see if this Philly offense can adjust and actually can
Speaker 1: get the A. J. Brown going on the play action.
Speaker 1: That's where he's at his best. It's where fucking hurts
Speaker 1: says the best. We just haven't seen it. They're doing
Speaker 1: four times a game with Saquon motherfucking Barklay in the backfield.
Speaker 1: You're running four play action passes a game. Four What
Speaker 1: the fuck are you doing? And that's your quarterback's best plays,
Speaker 1: his best play.
Speaker 2: Well, they can't run though, you I mean not that
Speaker 2: you have to run and do play action. It works anyways.
Speaker 1: And if you're not running enough, yeah, a fucking bomb
Speaker 1: back there, then yeah, who gives a ship? But you
Speaker 1: got Saque at any moment. It's a house call. You
Speaker 1: have to pay attention to him.
Speaker 2: And only thing I'll say is that we have not seen,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, the best from Denver. Obviously, we haven't
Speaker 2: seen the best of their defense that they've been not
Speaker 2: They've been good, they've been good, but I don't think
Speaker 2: we've seen the best of them. And then, of course,
Speaker 2: assuming there's more into in bow Knicks, I mean, if
Speaker 2: you're there has to be. We saw last year. We
Speaker 2: literally saw it last year. He's better than this.
Speaker 1: This is what he did last year. That's what he did. Now,
Speaker 1: what we haven't seen is the best jailing hurts, that's
Speaker 1: for sure. That dude's fucking went to two Super Bowls
Speaker 1: and one one of them he's played like ass. You
Speaker 1: mean he average is like one hundred and ten yards
Speaker 1: a game passed in the second half last.
Speaker 2: Week, heay, I lost the game without without him competing
Speaker 2: in the past. That's that was awesome. Happened. Thanks reminding
Speaker 2: me of that.
Speaker 1: Why don't you get me half the money you were
Speaker 1: gonna ban. I'll kick and we'll call it a day.
Speaker 1: That's what I said the long horn every time you betskains.
Speaker 2: That's what it felt like when when I lost the
Speaker 2: game with zero completed pass and the second half, That's what.
Speaker 1: It felt like. All right, let's move all to those
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens kind of you're hosting the Houston Texans. I'm
Speaker 1: not even gonna go over the preseason lines. Not worth it.
Speaker 1: Lamar's out, obviously, report is he might be out two
Speaker 1: to three weeks. Our fucking Super Bowl pick is dead,
Speaker 1: dead dead Longhorn dead.
Speaker 2: It might be dead, could road, it could be us.
Speaker 1: His road favorites road favorites in Baltimore yeah, I can't
Speaker 1: even say that. I almost chooed in my mouth just
Speaker 1: saying that a one to three team is a favorite
Speaker 1: in Baltimore.
Speaker 2: That's to say it out loud type type situation. And look,
Speaker 2: it's a major line moving this game. It does feel
Speaker 2: like a Baltimore spot.
Speaker 1: Nine and a half to two, a major line moving there.
Speaker 2: That's just two much. It's too much. It feels like
Speaker 2: a Baltimore spot. But I ain't hitting the sounder on
Speaker 2: Baltimore because I don't trust them with all their defensive
Speaker 2: injuries and and I don't I don't trust Cooper Rush.
Speaker 2: Although look, Cooper Rush has shown that he can win
Speaker 2: football games in the NFL. He's backed up that. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so it wouldn't surprise me at all if Houston wins,
Speaker 2: or excuse me, if Baltimore is this game. But man,
Speaker 2: and they're champion, they're like, they're a good champion type team.
Speaker 2: So but I just can't And maybe that's just maybe
Speaker 2: that tells me I should be on it, because I'm
Speaker 2: just being scared in a pussy and these are the
Speaker 2: exact type of games that you need to be on.
Speaker 2: I should be hitting the sounder. It should be hit
Speaker 2: that Sounder, but I'm not hit pretty much. Oh my god,
Speaker 2: that's almost enough to talk me into the sound But
Speaker 2: I tell you what, I tell you what. Let me
Speaker 2: throw it to you. And if you like Baltimore as
Speaker 2: much as I want to like Baltimore, Baltimo, I'm too
Speaker 2: much of a cigarette to to do it, then I will.
Speaker 2: I will post my handicap hit the Sounders. So you
Speaker 2: tell me.
Speaker 1: Like I got nothing on this game.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, who is this cigarette? Now? Now?
Speaker 1: My only thought here is and this is the reason
Speaker 1: why I have none of this game. Cooper Rush was
Speaker 1: very good with Dallas when Dallas was a good team
Speaker 1: and Dak went down for some time, you know, but
Speaker 1: you also saw what Cooper Rush was when Dallas wasn't
Speaker 1: a very good team. Last year, he couldn't win a
Speaker 1: football game. Now he's back with a very good team.
Speaker 1: But my problem is this, Dallas's offense with Dak performs
Speaker 1: exactly why Cooper Rush would perform. This Baltimore offense is
Speaker 1: not the same. It is built around Lamar and all
Speaker 1: his special capabilities an athlete. So now you're talking about
Speaker 1: limiting a playbook that has been literally built around one
Speaker 1: of the most special fucking players we've ever seen, and
Speaker 1: now you have to adapt it to not one of
Speaker 1: the most special players.
Speaker 2: We've ever seen, and against a Houston defense that is elked.
Speaker 1: And how much how much playbook do you even have left?
Speaker 2: That's my question?
Speaker 1: How much playbook can you even cool? Because I mean,
Speaker 1: how many plays in that playbook are waggles, rollouts, sprint outs,
Speaker 1: fucking power options, fucking quarterback draw I mean, like it's
Speaker 1: got to be at least sixty percent of that playbook
Speaker 1: is all built around I mean, there's not that many
Speaker 1: straight drops in this fucking offense. So what Cooper Rushing
Speaker 1: can roll through forty percent of the playbook? How much
Speaker 1: easier does that have to make this great defensive head coach?
Speaker 1: And in this defense.
Speaker 2: Maybe you don't remember the Cooper Rush rushing. His name
Speaker 2: is not Cooper Rush for for nothing. Okay, he can
Speaker 2: run the ball, all right, let's go together. Now he can't.
Speaker 2: He's he's not gonna be able to do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So, in other words, you've got forty percent of
Speaker 1: the playbook to prepare for for Houston. And this is
Speaker 1: not a team that's not played this team they've played
Speaker 1: two years in a row now, in the playoffs and
Speaker 1: in the regular season I think two or three times
Speaker 1: actually the last couple of years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they always seem to me.
Speaker 1: So they've seen each other. So they already know what
Speaker 1: Baltimore's not gonna be able to do. They know all
Speaker 1: the plays that he does that Trooper will be able
Speaker 1: to do. There's just I don't think there's nothing in
Speaker 1: bag for this offensive winner to be able to pull out.
Speaker 1: Now the their only fucking hope is that with the
Speaker 1: straight drops, save Flowers can fucking do something and Henry
Speaker 1: goes nuts, which Henry could always do.
Speaker 2: That's tough defense, though, I can't bet on that. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And let me just say, like we talked about Houston defense,
Speaker 2: it's obviously the identity of that team, and they are
Speaker 2: lights out, but they're switching them to what he marks.
Speaker 2: The rookie running back out of USC is gonna give
Speaker 2: a lot more juice in that backfield at not only
Speaker 2: running the ball, but catching the ball in the backfield. Yeah,
Speaker 2: he already has. He's made a difference.
Speaker 1: And then Baltimore defense is a massive and has been.
Speaker 1: I say, fati, they've given up how many points are bad?
Speaker 2: They haven't been. They haven't been good all year since
Speaker 2: Game one, and we talked about how bad the We
Speaker 2: talked about how bad the Houston offensive line has been.
Speaker 2: And I don't know if you've seen some of the
Speaker 2: blooper reels of the Houston offensive line, like people going,
Speaker 2: people going the wrong way off the snap and running
Speaker 2: into each other's offense. I've never seen this from an
Speaker 2: NFL team, but I said that to say this it's turning.
Speaker 2: It's turning. The The PFF numbers on this on this
Speaker 2: offensive line are nowhere near what they were to start
Speaker 2: the year. And that's including the number one ranked guard
Speaker 2: in the NFL as of right now at ingram Out.
Speaker 2: If he's like a third or fourth year player round
Speaker 2: or U s c L a guard. It's it's starting. Look,
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that Houston's gonna make a run at
Speaker 2: this division. I'm not saying they're not, but it's it's
Speaker 2: starting to look like, Okay, this offense could have some
Speaker 2: pieces that are coming into into form here, and if
Speaker 2: they can get just an average on offense with that defense,
Speaker 2: we might have something here in Houston. So we'll see possibility.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that play, I know exactly talking about where the
Speaker 1: center and right guard literally blocked each other and the
Speaker 1: rest of the line.
Speaker 2: One guy, it was doesn't that literally doesn't happen though.
Speaker 1: And one guy they're like, hey, let's fuck this guy.
Speaker 2: I don't know who the offensive line coach is for
Speaker 2: the Houston, but I would have if I was the
Speaker 2: head coach, I'd have walked over there after I saw
Speaker 2: that play and like, get your ship and you're just
Speaker 2: in whatever point part of the game it was, you're
Speaker 2: out of here. I could find I don't even need you.
Speaker 2: I can tell them to do better than that. That's terrible.
Speaker 1: Yeah, anybody can coach them to do better than that. Well,
Speaker 1: speaking of a team that's got something to say about
Speaker 1: your texts coming up on the division. Oh, it's Indiana
Speaker 1: Jones in those fucking Colts, Pholson R awesome. Vegas raid
Speaker 1: us all right now in this one pretty good move.
Speaker 1: So I had Indy minus two, Vegas had Indie minus
Speaker 1: one and a half. Uh, it's Indy minus seven. So
Speaker 1: that seems like too much to me. Longhorn, did you
Speaker 1: take it?
Speaker 2: Well, you're talking about your preseason from preseason. Yeah, you're
Speaker 2: you're gonna be. That's gonna be every week. It's gonna
Speaker 2: be like that for Indy, for you, because we were
Speaker 2: just apparently way off on what we thought they were
Speaker 2: gonna be to what they might possibly be. So but
Speaker 2: in this one, this was my first of many Split
Speaker 2: the Baby type games.
Speaker 1: Vegas wanted to an item of two, so we were
Speaker 1: both right there, Yeah, you're not gonna fucking exceed our
Speaker 1: expectations combined by this much.
Speaker 2: Like it's maybe not eventually, yeah, maybe not eventually. We'll
Speaker 2: see how it all plays out, but this was gonna
Speaker 2: be my first Split the Baby obviously teased down Indy,
Speaker 2: I was pretty pretty heavy on wanting to lean towards
Speaker 2: that Vegas plus seven. But brock Bowers is missed another
Speaker 2: day of practice. He's obviously been fighting that knee injury,
Speaker 2: and by the way he had that offense hasn't looked
Speaker 2: the same passing wise since the knee injury that he
Speaker 2: sustained in like the first week. Like it's just he's
Speaker 2: been playing through it kind of not looking the same.
Speaker 2: But now he's missing some more days of practice.
Speaker 1: And I'm worried about what what this this immediate future
Speaker 1: for brock Bowers is gonna be.
Speaker 2: But other than that, like Vegas they're they're they're really
Speaker 2: just Geno Smith away from being a three and one
Speaker 2: team two and two at worse because the block field
Speaker 2: goal at the end of the Chicago game. Can they
Speaker 2: be sitting at two and two? And Gino's been as
Speaker 2: bad as he's ever been that I've seen him since
Speaker 2: he started his career.
Speaker 1: So, like, I think this handicap I had on them,
Speaker 1: tell them all the summer with Gino Smith's a real quarterback.
Speaker 1: They got no quarterback. Now, this team is not as
Speaker 1: bad as thinks it is. They're gonna be five hundred's
Speaker 1: fun and yeah, thank.
Speaker 2: You very much, you know, yeah, so and and really
Speaker 2: if block, if brought Flowers can just be healthy and
Speaker 2: kind of work his way into close to his one
Speaker 2: hundred percent? Is he's gonna get with that knee injury
Speaker 2: that he's fight through that I really really love Vegas
Speaker 2: at that plus seven, it's just the Brough battle.
Speaker 1: Play, like, well, how healthy is it gonna be?
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess he's gonna play at some point.
Speaker 2: Does that giant knee race that he's obviously fighting through,
Speaker 2: is it gonna be something that progresses to something else?
Speaker 2: I don't know, But let's say he plays I love
Speaker 2: Vegas on the plus seven. I love Indy on the
Speaker 2: teas down. We're splitting the baby or taate. We're playing
Speaker 2: both sides. We are we love Gaza, we hate Gaza.
Speaker 2: We love Gaza, we hate Gaza. That's the that's what
Speaker 2: we're doing here, all right.
Speaker 1: So I dug into this one flat a bit so
Speaker 1: power rankings for me. Have Indy here, Blacky Gray though
Speaker 1: Vegas V two Vegas D two Vegas, nicoll on the total,
Speaker 1: I got another tie, it's twenty four four. It's right
Speaker 1: on the number of forty eight.
Speaker 2: Take the overun ties this week and cash out, all right.
Speaker 1: Both quarterbacks straight out flat here, Indy does get a
Speaker 1: half a point through the running game away jenty. I
Speaker 1: told y'all last week he was going to go off.
Speaker 1: This is not the week for him to go off. So,
Speaker 1: but here is what I dug into this one. It's
Speaker 1: all about Gino bouncing back. I know that the BBG
Speaker 1: said is a flat matchup, but honestly, the only thing
Speaker 1: Indy does on defense that will drop his numbers is
Speaker 1: on pre snap motion, and Las Vegas only runs at
Speaker 1: thirteen percent of the time. Indy has a slight edge
Speaker 1: of man coverage, but they only run man thirty six
Speaker 1: percent of the time. So Gino has been very good
Speaker 1: in his career versus his own covers. And Gino has
Speaker 1: only had two bad games out of the four and
Speaker 1: they were horrible, but the other two games was great.
Speaker 1: One was against the Chargers, who were the number one
Speaker 1: defensive success rate against the pass, and then last week
Speaker 1: versus the Bears. Look, that's just one of those NFL games.
Speaker 1: Nobody can explain what the fuck happened because the Bears
Speaker 1: sucking against the pass. That Indy is sixteenth. So you
Speaker 1: have to think no glaring matchup weaknesses versus defense and
Speaker 1: going to get you know, more of an average competition.
Speaker 1: It's got to be a good game for Geno. Look,
Speaker 1: he had over three hundred yards and three touchdowns versus
Speaker 1: the Skins and New England two games out of four
Speaker 1: so far. I said, three hundred yards and three touchdowns.
Speaker 1: And yes, I know both of those secondaries suck twenty
Speaker 1: second at twenty ninth respectively in defensive success rate against
Speaker 1: the pass. Yes, Andy is a step up from them,
Speaker 1: for sure, but is it enough of a step up?
Speaker 1: The Raiders won't be able to score the fucking ball.
Speaker 1: They've scored twenty points in every game this year except
Speaker 1: the Chargers, which again, the Chargers are elite versus the
Speaker 1: fucking pass. Now on the other side, the Raiders sink
Speaker 1: against the pass too, so I do expect Indiana Jones
Speaker 1: to be just finding this game. But there is one
Speaker 1: matchup that favors the Raiders, and that is the Jones
Speaker 1: is much better versus man than's own and the Raiders
Speaker 1: run zones seventy four point four percent of sign that's
Speaker 1: the third highest rate in the entire league. They do
Speaker 1: it at a Bobve league average clip and the problem
Speaker 1: area is one of the The problem area are one
Speaker 1: of the worst man They're one of the worst man
Speaker 1: coverages teams, and Danny Dowme's feast on man coverage, especially
Speaker 1: shitty ones, which the Raiders definitely are. So the key
Speaker 1: for the Raiders staying in this cover is this, stay
Speaker 1: out of fucking man coverage as much as possible, play
Speaker 1: zone and don't fucking blitz it. And on offense, stay
Speaker 1: away from pre snap motion, which they really always do,
Speaker 1: and have your best man beater plays ready for those
Speaker 1: few times that Andy will go man coverage. That and
Speaker 1: oh yeah, don't throw three fucking picks gino.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, don't maybe just gino. Don't be a fucking
Speaker 2: don't be West Virginia, GINO. Be that just pretty good
Speaker 2: gino from from Seattle that we remember, and just transfer
Speaker 2: that to this well coached, well coached Vegas team with
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll. I'm still waiting to see what I think
Speaker 2: they could be. But like I said, they could be
Speaker 2: two and two or even three in one at this point.
Speaker 2: So I think you're getting value at the plus seven
Speaker 2: and I like to tease down.
Speaker 1: All right, well here we'll here's what won't let you
Speaker 1: beat the teas down. But it's ah, I'll call it
Speaker 1: the numbers geek pick of the week, but it's a
Speaker 1: pretty good trend.
Speaker 2: Wow side nerve, get out go.
Speaker 1: I ain't got time to be distracted by your worth.
Speaker 2: This chime is gone, gone longer.
Speaker 1: It's not gonna like this. So since twenty twelve, it's
Speaker 1: week five. You are one and three, No, sorry, you're
Speaker 1: three and one. You lost your last game. That's end
Speaker 1: eight thirteen straight up eight and thirteen ats And then
Speaker 1: if you do that and you're the favorite five and
Speaker 1: nine straight up five and nine ats and the teasers
Speaker 1: in such cases eight and six for the favorites fifty
Speaker 1: seven percent. Thats not making you money on a teaser.
Speaker 1: It's the only team to qualify for that. But there
Speaker 1: are several teams to qualify. In the first trend that
Speaker 1: I gave the Chargers, the Bucks, Colts and forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: Now four Nineers are obviously dogs, the Bucks are obviously dogs.
Speaker 1: So the Chargers and Colts go to the favorite. But overall,
Speaker 1: it is a terrible fucking spot to be in. It's
Speaker 1: that old momentum thing. You were three, and oh you
Speaker 1: just lost the game. You think, oh, we can bounce back. No,
Speaker 1: you don't fucking bounce back. In fact, you lose more
Speaker 1: than you win at a sixty two to thirty eight
Speaker 1: percent clip straight up not even ATS.
Speaker 2: So okay, well, then that tells me that I need
Speaker 2: to go ahead and plug in those Vegas Raiders and
Speaker 2: plus seven and split the baby heads it out.
Speaker 1: The baby all right, Let's move on to those pearl
Speaker 1: lot of panthers. Hustle those my Hamma Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Do we have to?
Speaker 1: Unfortunately we do?
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: I had Miami minus four, Vegas had them minus one,
Speaker 1: and a half. Vegas speak me on this one. I
Speaker 1: was too high in Miami preseason. That's it. It's one
Speaker 1: and a half. Basically, live Longhorn. What do you got
Speaker 1: on this one?
Speaker 2: Where did you have Miami yet?
Speaker 1: I had him at minus four, so I was wrong.
Speaker 1: Now they're not a minus one across the board.
Speaker 2: So so in this one, I look not allowed on
Speaker 2: this one. I probably won't lay a single dime on
Speaker 2: this game in any way. But if you're gonna pick them,
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be on Miami here and reluctantly on Miami.
Speaker 2: I do not want to play Miami at all. But
Speaker 2: Cuba Hubbard might not play in this game for Carolina.
Speaker 2: And if you're looking for any kind of real, consistent,
Speaker 2: good player on the Carolina offense, it's just Cuba Hubbard.
Speaker 2: And this is a good and this is a good
Speaker 2: matchup for Cuba Hubbard against this defense, or at least
Speaker 2: at least from the numbers that I've looked at. Uh
Speaker 2: And so so if he can't go, if he cannot
Speaker 2: go against this, this Miami defense, I have to look
Speaker 2: towards Miami in two always beats bad teams. He's kind
Speaker 2: of one of those eer typical good but not really
Speaker 2: great quarterback that's going to beat up on bad teams,
Speaker 2: beat up on bad defenses, light up the scoreboard to
Speaker 2: where people think that he's better than he is, and
Speaker 2: then when he plays a real team, he just gets
Speaker 2: his doors blown. And we know that, we know, we
Speaker 2: just know the truth about too. He's really good against
Speaker 2: bad teams, and he sucks. He cannot cover, cannot beat
Speaker 2: the good teams. So he's playing a bad team. Here,
Speaker 2: he's playing a team that has a bad defense. And
Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball, for Carolina, Bryce
Speaker 2: Young is just he's a this is a this is
Speaker 2: turning into almost an embarrassment because he did have a
Speaker 2: little blip at the end of last year, but that
Speaker 2: was coming off one of the most embarrassing, horrible starts
Speaker 2: to a season that we've ever seen, like including Tim Tebow.
Speaker 1: So saw numbers on him and literally his career so far,
Speaker 1: he is if all matches you can bottom, is the
Speaker 1: worst starting quarterback other than Tim Tebow.
Speaker 2: And here and here's the deal. Don't forget they traded
Speaker 2: up for this guy, so they mortgaged part of their future,
Speaker 2: building around a huge part of it. So you can't
Speaker 2: just do that and and then the quarterback suck because
Speaker 2: if you do, you know again I think I I
Speaker 2: think I got sucked into the Carolina thing again. I
Speaker 2: think I picked him win eight games. It's it's just
Speaker 2: gonna be not even close. They're gonna win four or
Speaker 2: five games. Again, Like it's just Bryce Young. He sucks.
Speaker 2: He's not it. He's not the dude, and he don't.
Speaker 2: Don't be surprised if in the last four or five weeks,
Speaker 2: when everybody has given up, they know that they suck.
Speaker 1: Touch down pass last week. By the way, if you
Speaker 1: didn't see that trash time.
Speaker 2: Oh did he? I did not see that? Okay, oh
Speaker 2: my god? Are we gonna Are we gonna get the
Speaker 2: red Rocket again? Jesus Christ. No, I don't want to
Speaker 2: spend a lot of time on this game because I
Speaker 2: don't like it at all. But I will be on
Speaker 2: Miami and Bryce Young sucks.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not spending time on it either. Just I
Speaker 1: would say the BPG grais it out twenty four to twenty.
Speaker 1: Miami Overrunner is forty four and a half and no
Speaker 1: call there. I mean, it's a it's a flat match
Speaker 1: of about both quarterbacks. But here miam Here's where Miami
Speaker 1: will have an advantage and why I think they win
Speaker 1: the game. They're gonna have an advantage running the ball
Speaker 1: with their scheme versus this Caroline offense or Caroline defense.
Speaker 1: Excuse me and number two my ally, The other point
Speaker 1: is I think that, you know, losing the fucking fastest
Speaker 1: girlfriend pregnant girlfriend kicker in the world could be auditioned
Speaker 1: by subtraction, at least in the small front. He's obviously
Speaker 1: a fucking distraction in the locker room. He didn't want
Speaker 1: to be there. You saw him fucking cheering like a motherfucker,
Speaker 1: like he just did the lottery when he s ending
Speaker 1: his career. I hate him too, I've hated him since
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. But either way, for coming together moment, this
Speaker 1: could be one of those sealed the locker room type deals.
Speaker 1: Sure play a shitty fucking team. It's a small travel
Speaker 1: from Miami to fucking Carolina. I mean, it's it's Miami pass.
Speaker 1: We're here. Oh, let's get onto the game that I
Speaker 1: know Longhorn has been chomping at the fucking bit to
Speaker 1: get into. And you know what if I said that
Speaker 1: four weeks ago, he'd be like you're out of here,
Speaker 1: goddamn mine, But here we are. It's those New Orleans
Speaker 1: Saints hosting those New York Football Giants. All right, this was.
Speaker 2: Supposed to be it's going to be all over the place.
Speaker 1: No, So I had New Orleans minus two. They're sitting
Speaker 1: at minus two. Vegas had New Orleans plus one and
Speaker 1: a half. This is one of the few games that
Speaker 1: Vegas had the Giants favorite and I didn't. I had
Speaker 1: New Orleans sitting exactly where they are, so I bet
Speaker 1: they beat me on the last one. I beat them
Speaker 1: on this one, Longhorn. It's New Orleans minus two. Just
Speaker 1: like I said, it was gonna be taking away.
Speaker 2: Well before I take it away, we're getting some fuckery
Speaker 2: here in the San Francisco game with some spotting of
Speaker 2: the balls, but we'll deal with that later because I
Speaker 2: think the Rams are gonna come back on this game.
Speaker 2: Go to go to go to Texas. Tell health dot
Speaker 2: com if you've got spotted balls, Doctor West, take carry
Speaker 2: for sure. Now this one is fiddle in the middle
Speaker 2: action a lot of those this week. I may or
Speaker 2: may not have already put out in New Orleans at
Speaker 2: pickam on the on the premium page, I'll be sure
Speaker 2: to go to that premium page at our patreon dot
Speaker 2: com slash bet underscore. Fgh. Maybe it's there, maybe it's not.
Speaker 2: I don't even got to purchase to find out. But
Speaker 2: I do like that the number has gone up. Would
Speaker 2: you say, is that right now? Yeah? It's at two?
Speaker 2: Oh is this steaming either way? Are we gonna get
Speaker 2: two and a half. It's pretty flat, it's it's flattened
Speaker 2: out at too. Okay, that's fine because I may or
Speaker 2: may not have played the Giants back on the teaser
Speaker 2: at plus eight. So this is this is again we
Speaker 2: talked about open a lot of a lot of a
Speaker 2: lot of playing both sides here. This is one. Now,
Speaker 2: Spencer Rounders never won a game. Does that worry? Yes?
Speaker 2: It fucking does, because he's not He is never you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how to say you never
Speaker 2: want a game. Now, you could say, you could say
Speaker 2: he does suck. But here's the deal. New Orleans knows
Speaker 2: they're gonna win somewhere between zero and four games this year,
Speaker 2: and four is one.
Speaker 1: This is the one.
Speaker 2: Four might be pushing it, but I'm just saying, like
Speaker 2: they're over under was you know, five and a half.
Speaker 2: I think so five five and a half. So this
Speaker 2: is like, man, if we're gonna get one, if we're
Speaker 2: ever gonna have that feeling in the locker room, that
Speaker 2: that winning feeling for a shitty team, you want to
Speaker 2: have it one time. This is their super Bowl. This
Speaker 2: is literally the stadium is gonna be ready for it,
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 1: And also never won a game. Kellen Moore is a
Speaker 1: head coach. This could be his first.
Speaker 2: Yeah, good good point. Good point, like they're they're they're
Speaker 2: thirsting for a win here and that and last last point,
Speaker 2: I'll throw it to you. The giants kind of. I mean,
Speaker 2: we saw the celebration between Dart and and the coach
Speaker 2: last week that they felt like that's a monkey off
Speaker 2: the back, Like, holy shit, they were still running the
Speaker 2: one super Bowl. It's a natural letdown spot. It's just
Speaker 2: a natural letdown spot. Not to mention Dart like there's
Speaker 2: some more. There's tape on him now, you know. So
Speaker 2: so they'll be able to shut down some of that
Speaker 2: running game, force him to beat them with the past.
Speaker 2: Neighbors is not there, so you don't have that bell
Speaker 2: out throw over the top. Look, I like Newlan's to
Speaker 2: win this game. You know it's but I do think
Speaker 2: it'll be closed because no one sucks and and Ratler's
Speaker 2: number won a games, so he's not going to get
Speaker 2: to win with margins. So New Orleans to win, Giants
Speaker 2: to cover the teaser, and let's let's play both sides.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 1: So I did grade this out. I do have four
Speaker 1: weeks now for all the rookie quarterbacks and Spencer Rattlers
Speaker 1: of the world, so I am able to grade pretty
Speaker 1: much every team now rated in fairness. I degrade the
Speaker 1: Giants with Russell Wilson's numbers because I don't have enough
Speaker 1: one Jackson Dart, but I was like, eh, close enough.
Speaker 1: So the power raking is on the Giants, the buckets
Speaker 1: are on the Giants, but the B two's a no call.
Speaker 1: D two's on Giants. Forty two is the over under.
Speaker 1: I've got this twenty four to twenty two New Orleans,
Speaker 1: so that's right on the two points. That's a no
Speaker 1: call for me on the VPG. But here's the thing,
Speaker 1: this should be a decent matchup for Spencer Ratler. He
Speaker 1: gets half a point through the BBG. I can't really
Speaker 1: say what it's gonna be for Dart. Per se. But
Speaker 1: here's the other pause to part for New Orleans. They
Speaker 1: should be able to run wild on this defense. They
Speaker 1: gain a point and a half of the BPG. That's
Speaker 1: what he needs. He needs a fucking running game, and
Speaker 1: he needs a control of the clock and just wear
Speaker 1: down this Giants team, like you said, coming off a
Speaker 1: big high. They get down, we'll see what happens. But
Speaker 1: I do have this humongous trend on this game, and
Speaker 1: this applies to the Taxons, which they're gonna catch a
Speaker 1: break probably, but the Dolphins too, which that's what kept
Speaker 1: me off, the Dolphins and the Giants. So Week five, again,
Speaker 1: you were one and three or oh and three, you
Speaker 1: just won the game three and so this opposite of
Speaker 1: last the last trend of game you were three and
Speaker 1: oh and lost a game. This trend is you were
Speaker 1: oh and three and you just won your first game.
Speaker 1: So then now it's week five, you're one and three,
Speaker 1: three and fourteen straight up, seven and ten ats forty
Speaker 1: one percent and eleven and six of the over, which
Speaker 1: I do have it going over. So numbers line up
Speaker 1: with that part of the trid lease and the average
Speaker 1: line on that is a plus three and they're plus
Speaker 1: two and they're losing at a two point six culative
Speaker 1: ats mark.
Speaker 2: So you're all over New Orleans two.
Speaker 1: There's only New Orleans in the over all right, all right,
Speaker 1: here we go. We're moving on to this is a
Speaker 1: difficult one. Those Seattle Seahawks hosting those tam uh Bakers.
Speaker 1: Maybe Bakers, maybe no Bakers.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think he plays. He's a tough kid.
Speaker 2: He ain't missing shit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he ain't missing. So on this one preseason I
Speaker 1: had to pick him. Vegas had Seattle plus one Seattle
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, so I was closer to
Speaker 1: the Vegas. We were still both way fucking wrong. I
Speaker 1: think you right now, it's still three and a half
Speaker 1: long horn. So you go on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you say this is a tough one. It's almost
Speaker 2: like this one is a dangerous one, because I woke
Speaker 2: up feeling a little dangerous this morning. Boats. Even so,
Speaker 2: this is gonna be the danger zone game of the.
Speaker 3: Week, all right. So right off the bat, Baker.
Speaker 2: Eight missing his game, He's gonna play. He's a gamer
Speaker 2: fifteen and eight, fifteen and eight as a dog for Bakers.
Speaker 2: So I like that. I like that we're getting to
Speaker 2: three and a half. Now, as I mentioned earlier, the
Speaker 2: three and a half has been the absolute kryptonite for
Speaker 2: me this year. I've got multiple losses taking the dog
Speaker 2: at three and a half, one of them by this
Speaker 2: by this very Bucks team last week against Philly at
Speaker 2: three and a half. So it's kind of been a
Speaker 2: little little fools good. Well, remember the La Rams plus
Speaker 2: three and a half in Philly.
Speaker 1: That was the impossible. The Bucks got whipped pretty good,
Speaker 1: but they did have a chance to cover and the.
Speaker 2: End had a great chance to cover at the end.
Speaker 2: So now that can't that can't continue because three and
Speaker 2: a half is one of the greatest numbers in in
Speaker 2: football betting period. So I'm killing that Bucky Irving being
Speaker 2: out or you know, probably out, we'll see, haven't haven't
Speaker 2: seen officially ruled out, but he's yeah, but it But
Speaker 2: either way, we saw him be out last year and
Speaker 2: they still had running it like uh the Tucker kid
Speaker 2: White or Shaan White. They've got running backs. They might
Speaker 2: not be as as dynamic as Bucky Irving, but they've
Speaker 2: got running backs. But the defense for Tampa Bay you
Speaker 2: can't run on them. And Seattle's identity is running the ball.
Speaker 2: Is running the ball and playing defense. Well, the the
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay defense is gonna shut down the running game.
Speaker 2: So now you're stuck with Sam Darnold, who has had
Speaker 2: a reserve in his career, being able to find enough
Speaker 2: weapons to to, you know, win this game with margin
Speaker 2: by more than three and a half. And these dbats
Speaker 2: for Tampa Bay, this physical Tampa Bay defense, it's really
Speaker 2: only one guy that they got to shut down in JSN.
Speaker 2: Outside of that, if they shut down the running game
Speaker 2: and JSN they should, they should be able to win
Speaker 2: this game. So with the danger zone on my mind,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do. I'm gonna do one in one, one
Speaker 2: in one, one one need to want to now plus
Speaker 2: three money actually changed just on a three and a half,
Speaker 2: two units on a three and a half, and then
Speaker 2: I'm gonna listen to your handicap and then I'll decide
Speaker 2: if I want to if I want to go moneyline,
Speaker 2: but definitely, definitely I'm on Tampa Bay plus three and
Speaker 2: a half in this game. And both sieves do the
Speaker 2: numbers agree with this? And does Tampa Bay have a
Speaker 2: shot to steal this game against Seattle? Who who I have?
Speaker 2: I think I can't see a boarder now, but I
Speaker 2: think I have them in the Anster Championship game with
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. So this, this to me is the NFC
Speaker 2: Championship matchup. So uh, what do we got charter or something? Well,
Speaker 2: I mean you know that's uh that that's just that's
Speaker 2: just like your opinion, man, I mean.
Speaker 1: All right, so on this power rankings agreed, Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: buckets right now, no call B two, Tampa Bay the money.
Speaker 1: The money has not moved in this game. So I'm
Speaker 1: watching the money. I'm still watching the money. D two's
Speaker 1: no call. Forty four and a half sen the total.
Speaker 1: I've got it slightly over that. I've got Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: winning this game twenty five to twenty two. Now here's
Speaker 1: what scares me with this matchup is it's a flat
Speaker 1: matchup for Sam Darnold. He should be fine. It's not
Speaker 1: a great matchup for Baker. He loses the point and
Speaker 1: a half of the VPG. But to your point, Seattle
Speaker 1: loses a half a point on their running game. Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay gains a half a point on their running game.
Speaker 1: And we've seen when Tampa Bay can run the ball
Speaker 1: and Baker doesn't have to scramble and get out of
Speaker 1: fucking forty seven fucking sacks and you know, have to
Speaker 1: do something awesome or something stupid.
Speaker 2: He's gonna do that. That's just what he does, I know.
Speaker 1: But like when he doesn't have to and they can
Speaker 1: stay on time, this offense is a fucking machine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Godwin is gonna be I think he had
Speaker 2: ten target last week and like two or three catches
Speaker 2: like that's not gonna happen again.
Speaker 1: And they're gonna have to lean on this running game
Speaker 1: because again, it's not gonna be a good matchup for Baker,
Speaker 1: So I do not expect them to have a great game.
Speaker 1: So it's gonna have to be the running game to
Speaker 1: Texas home. But the good news is they do have
Speaker 1: the advantage there and they do great out to win
Speaker 1: as far as my numbers go. So I back you
Speaker 1: on this one.
Speaker 2: For Tampa to win. For Tampa to win, yeah, okay,
Speaker 2: then do one unit on the money line.
Speaker 1: One you need money line? Okay, I will look that
Speaker 1: up in a second.
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, you're good, You're good. What's the next one?
Speaker 1: Oh, it's the fucking game of the week. Of course,
Speaker 1: it's still the Arizona Fight Midgets versus those ten See titles.
Speaker 1: I mean, how could you not just be glued to
Speaker 1: your TV during the fucking spa Like we have to
Speaker 1: have this in the sparse ass three o'clock fucking times,
Speaker 1: Like there's four games and this has to be fucking
Speaker 1: move this ship up, moving to London, moving to fucking Japan.
Speaker 1: What a we have to do to not have this
Speaker 1: game in the fucking three o'clock time? Song? God damn it?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: On this one, I had Arizona minus seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Vegas had a minus five and a half. It's sitting
Speaker 1: at I believe seven and a half. So I beat
Speaker 1: Vegas on this one, like I was waying down on
Speaker 1: Tennessee and I was a little bit higher on Arizona
Speaker 1: than Vegas. Now I'm not sure that I'm right, I'll
Speaker 1: put that out. I'm not sure that I'm right I'm
Speaker 1: being higher than Vegas and Arizona. But clearly I was
Speaker 1: fucking right on me and more down on the Titans
Speaker 1: than they were. So long, when were you got on
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I hate to burst everybody's bubble here, but I
Speaker 2: don't do write ups on Tennessee games anymore. They are unvetable.
Speaker 2: Why would I waste my time digging into a team
Speaker 2: that what are they both say? It was three and
Speaker 2: eighteen ats under this coach, like.
Speaker 1: Three in eighteen? How did they ever cover three games?
Speaker 2: I don't know. I would love to go back and
Speaker 2: watch it, like they're on unbeedable. So I'm not wasting
Speaker 2: us three twenty seven on the money line. I don't
Speaker 2: give a shit. I'm not wasting my time writing them up.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: Put them in the hell corner TV forever, stuck there
Speaker 2: until until this coach gets fired unbetable And and this
Speaker 2: is a free pass every single week for me, all right?
Speaker 1: Plus one sixty five.
Speaker 2: For Okay Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Okay, So that's a good that's a good number for you. Yeah, okay.
Speaker 1: I did go ahead and grade this game out. I
Speaker 1: don't have anything on it, like it's it's an okay
Speaker 1: matchup for Kyler. It's not a great matchup for fucking
Speaker 1: cam word. But what is forty two and a half
Speaker 1: is the total I've got it going under. I've got
Speaker 1: Arizona winning twenty two to sixteen. That's not quite covering
Speaker 1: the number I'm not betting. Tennessee. Don't worry boys and girls.
Speaker 1: I'm done. I've taken my chastising and I'm moving the
Speaker 1: fuck on. But Arizona should be able to run them
Speaker 1: up pretty well in this game, should be able to
Speaker 1: do what he does. Tennessee won't be able to do anything,
Speaker 1: So Arizona wins. If you haven't picked Arizona and.
Speaker 2: Your survivor yet, what do you think? That's what That's
Speaker 2: what I was gonna ask. What's the percentage of Arizona
Speaker 2: this week and survivor if they didn't pick him right
Speaker 2: because they played Carolina. That's what I was That's what
Speaker 2: I was thinking too, So like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot of I've already burned Arizona in
Speaker 1: both of mine because I okay one of them at
Speaker 1: New Orleans week one, and I burned him the other
Speaker 1: on the other side with Carolina coming. So probably not
Speaker 1: a lot of people have Arizona left. That's all I'm saying.
Speaker 2: I do. So they're definitely my survivor pick.
Speaker 1: That's not a That's not a bad pick at all, sir,
Speaker 1: Not a bad pick at all, all right, Moving on
Speaker 1: to Longhorn. Well, this this is long Horn. This is
Speaker 1: the long Horn super Bowl. This fanatic hosting those Detroit Lions.
Speaker 2: What does that even mean? I don't even know what
Speaker 2: that means.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not going over the pre season
Speaker 1: lines because obviously that was burrow In. Who gives a fuck,
Speaker 1: he's not there. Now we are sitting at this thing.
Speaker 1: Got up to fucking ten and a half at one point.
Speaker 2: Uh where at Now it's a flat ten.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to look, where is Thomas this fucking game?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they they fucking moved this game to three
Speaker 1: o'clock hour. Now it's still pretty much ten and a
Speaker 1: half across the board. So ten to ten and a half.
Speaker 1: You can get plenty of ten's out there if you
Speaker 1: want to lay the ten. If you want to catch
Speaker 1: the ten and a half, you can get that too.
Speaker 1: So pick your poison here, boys and girls.
Speaker 2: Yeah I'm not. I'm not necessarily looking to lay the ten,
Speaker 2: but if you're, I mean, you know, if if I
Speaker 2: had to, like, if you're in the league that that
Speaker 2: picks every game against the spread or every game straight up,
Speaker 2: I'm just taking Detroit in both and and looking and
Speaker 2: just not even thinking about it. They are They're still
Speaker 2: a machine. They're still they're still doing what they've kind
Speaker 2: of always been doing. I don't see it. Do you
Speaker 2: do you notice a discernible difference between the Detroit with
Speaker 2: Ben Johnson and the great Hall of Fame Aaron Glynn
Speaker 2: to this Detroit team. I don't.
Speaker 1: The only difference was the green Bay game.
Speaker 2: Right, which was within the first game. Yeah, So, like,
Speaker 2: I mean, let's just say that there was I mean
Speaker 2: of some sort of a learning curt I mean.
Speaker 1: Let's say that Green Bays is the better team, which
Speaker 1: they probably are and is what it is.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll see. Yeah, look, I don't want to overthink this.
Speaker 2: Cincinnati sucks, but they've sucked with Browning against some really
Speaker 2: good defenses. I do think that Brownie is gonna have
Speaker 2: a little bit of a bounce back here, be able
Speaker 2: to score some points. They they haven't scored anything in
Speaker 2: like two weeks. They're gonna put some focus on that.
Speaker 2: But the machine of the Detroit offense is just too much.
Speaker 2: And my last thing is I just I will not
Speaker 2: spend a lot of time on on going against Detroit
Speaker 2: because there they are a seventy percent ats machine since
Speaker 2: Dan Campbell's been there, seventy percent golf golf, same thing,
Speaker 2: you know, they're they're they're you know, coincide together. Obviously,
Speaker 2: you have to have a damn damn good reason to
Speaker 2: bat against Detroit, and we thought that this year would
Speaker 2: be a good well, we thought this year would be
Speaker 2: a good reason to bet against Detroit because of the
Speaker 2: you know, the the coordinator changes we did. We weren't
Speaker 2: sure how how much Ben Johnson had influence on that team.
Speaker 3: Base.
Speaker 2: Good job getting now it. Don't do it again, just
Speaker 2: don't do it. But yeah, so yeah, I'm on Detroit here.
Speaker 2: I just you gotta have a good reason. And and
Speaker 2: Detroit does not take their foot up the gas. That's
Speaker 2: the thing. If they if they smell blood in the water,
Speaker 2: they fucking throttle it. They foot down to the pedal.
Speaker 2: They will run it up on your ass. So they're
Speaker 2: much like a college team in that way to where
Speaker 2: they're not gonna kneel on it at the end of
Speaker 2: the game and just hand off, handoff, handoff. They're gonna
Speaker 2: keep running their offense. They're gonna keep doing They might
Speaker 2: not do trick plays if they're up, if they're up
Speaker 2: by thirteen, but they're they're gonna run their offense. They're
Speaker 2: gonna do their ship.
Speaker 1: See Detroit versus Chicago early this year.
Speaker 2: Well that was personal. That one was personal, So I
Speaker 2: understand that one.
Speaker 1: But the funny thing is Dan's not even mad at
Speaker 1: him for leaving because he can't be. He took an opportunity.
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't. I mean, dad couldn't be happier for the kid.
Speaker 2: No, But that's just that's just competitive. That's what they're
Speaker 2: the both competitive.
Speaker 1: Ye Sons. Not welcome to the fucking show as well. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that one movie like that that was and they were
Speaker 1: still running tree plays like oh, I mean they went
Speaker 1: forward to like fourth and three forty or thirty on
Speaker 1: the like six yard line just to throw another touchdown
Speaker 1: to fucking anonymous s Brown Like it was so like
Speaker 1: it was. It was one of those just ass whippons
Speaker 1: that you just like, if you're Ben Johnson, you you
Speaker 1: knew what was coming. You know who that dude is,
Speaker 1: You're just gonna take it.
Speaker 2: Like, look, they have they clearly have love for each
Speaker 2: other and respect for each other. It's just like a
Speaker 2: father and son. Like if you're a father, will if
Speaker 2: he gets a chance to teach a son a lesson
Speaker 2: like in physical like they're playing that he's gonna take
Speaker 2: it same way when the sun grows up and gets
Speaker 2: a little gets a little physicality, and hey, I got
Speaker 2: a chance to put it on you, pops, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: do it. It's the same thing, so that it's it's
Speaker 2: just competition. But yeah, Detroit, you gotta have a reason
Speaker 2: to bet against them, and I don't. I don't see
Speaker 2: one here.
Speaker 1: I don't either. The Power Greens do have sensy on this.
Speaker 1: This number is just.
Speaker 2: It's they're going to like, it's just going to that's
Speaker 2: just yeah, it always will.
Speaker 1: But the buckets are on Detroit, and buckets, by the way,
Speaker 1: boys and girls are now eighteen and eighteen and twelve overall,
Speaker 1: So I'm bad. It's having another great season. I'm hoping
Speaker 1: to unleash them soon. I want to get through this
Speaker 1: unleased four weeks. Plush the uh plus the fucking whip around.
Speaker 1: We usually have her for these four weeks where crazy
Speaker 1: shit happens. Now the B two and D two are
Speaker 1: no calls on this one. Forty nine and a half
Speaker 1: is a total. I've great this created well well well
Speaker 1: to the under I don't trust that necessarily, because, like
Speaker 1: you said, if Detroit can go put up forty. They're
Speaker 1: fucking gonna now what the BBG spit out was. Detroit
Speaker 1: went in twenty seven to fifteen, which would cover the
Speaker 1: ten and a half, put it well to the under.
Speaker 1: But your point, Brownie does actually great and I do
Speaker 1: have grades on a brown and now he actually does
Speaker 1: grade out decently. He gains half a point against his
Speaker 1: Detroit defense.
Speaker 2: That's shocking. That's shocking that it's grinding it out to
Speaker 2: the under, that this has over ridden all over it.
Speaker 2: I know, I know that is shocking.
Speaker 1: But here's the thing. Cincinna is not gonna be ever
Speaker 1: to run the ball. They're not gonna be able to
Speaker 1: run the ball in this game. That's gonna make it
Speaker 1: tough on Browning and Detroit should be able to run
Speaker 1: the ball at better than the average clip. That's just
Speaker 1: gonna make it easier on golf. The easier they run
Speaker 1: the ball in that offense, the more points they fucking score.
Speaker 1: The board opens up, the play action everything they love
Speaker 1: to do. Yeah, I mean, I'm not in the business
Speaker 1: of laying ten and a half, but if I had
Speaker 1: too good in my head, I can't back Sincy. There's
Speaker 1: nothing in the numbers and second back Sinsey. So I'm
Speaker 1: with you.
Speaker 2: Twenty to twenty rams ball with nine minutes left. Here
Speaker 2: we go, baby rams ball, yep, rams ball, nine minutes left.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go do it, fucking Matthew Stafford, don't
Speaker 1: don't fail me now, back, don't fail me now.
Speaker 2: Don't say anything in Jenson, just let it go.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to those Sandy Yeah, go souper.
Speaker 2: Oh, back to San Diego. They were always san Diego.
Speaker 2: They were never not san Diego, never.
Speaker 1: Not san Diego. All right, they're hosting those Washington Redskins.
Speaker 1: All right on this one. Let's see what we had.
Speaker 1: I had Washington plus two Bays had and plus one
Speaker 1: and a half. We're sitting at I believe two and
Speaker 1: a half live now. We did have some no sorry, three,
Speaker 1: let's say two point seventy five, because any threes are juice.
Speaker 2: So but there are threes. But there are threes, okay.
Speaker 1: Plenty plenty of threes. Plenty threes now longer and I
Speaker 1: had some discussion on Monday. He thought this line was
Speaker 1: San Daniel's house. Said no, it's a fair line with
Speaker 1: Daniels Inns. I knew what my preseason grades were and
Speaker 1: he is gonna play. He is gonna wear knee bres yup.
Speaker 1: Scary Terry not gonna play. No Brown, not gonna play.
Speaker 1: Not that fucking matters at all. But I mean Longhorn
Speaker 1: talked about also in the preseason that other than Scary
Speaker 1: Terry might be one of the worst fucking receiving porters
Speaker 1: in all the football. How do they score against his
Speaker 1: Chargers defense? I don't know, man, Longhored.
Speaker 2: You got Yeah, everything you just said I tend to
Speaker 2: agree with, but I don't care because I love me
Speaker 2: some Jade Daniels and get the get it ready bosis
Speaker 2: because this is gonna be the big Dick pick of
Speaker 2: the week, and.
Speaker 1: Pop off a piece of my dick, floppy donky dick.
Speaker 2: Sire, fucking we've more deal nice, I'm gonna put some
Speaker 2: my dick in. Yeah, so just call it a gut check.
Speaker 2: I don't have a whole lot of numbers to back
Speaker 2: it up. I'm hoping when you throw it to you,
Speaker 2: you've got some numbers to back this up. But this
Speaker 2: is this is a Daniels This is just a Daniels play.
Speaker 2: And and sprinkle in some some Herbert coming back to
Speaker 2: the Herbert that he We always saw that he was
Speaker 2: whenever he gets pressured.
Speaker 1: How many units, We're.
Speaker 2: Going two and two, two and two, two units on
Speaker 2: the three on the three?
Speaker 1: Got it?
Speaker 2: Okay, uh, it's a big one. We're going. Okay, Joe
Speaker 2: all out later already was out. This is too much.
Speaker 2: This is the identity of the Chargers. They are going.
Speaker 1: People off the fucking say by the.
Speaker 2: Bell cast right now, or you know, I can you know,
Speaker 2: I could go deeper. I could. I could go into
Speaker 2: Makaia beacons like that. I'm not even done with naming
Speaker 2: the rosters, so don't even get me started. Don't even
Speaker 2: get me started, because I could, I could go much
Speaker 2: further with this. But the injuries are adding up, and
Speaker 2: this is just this is the Herbert versus Daniels play,
Speaker 2: because Daniels can succeed and perform without having off his
Speaker 2: best players. We've seen it, We've seen him do it.
Speaker 2: He can do it. Herbert, on the other hand, I
Speaker 2: love him when everything is good around him. I don't
Speaker 2: like him when it's not. And this is a situation
Speaker 2: where it's just not gonna be the Redskins. They are,
Speaker 2: they do get pressure. They're they're a team that can
Speaker 2: get pressu on the quarterback and with both tackles out
Speaker 2: and a guard out, I just think this is gonna
Speaker 2: be a nasty, low scoring game where Herbert's gonna gonna
Speaker 2: have the ball at the end of the game with
Speaker 2: a chance to win, and Daniels is gonna have the
Speaker 2: ball at the end of the game with a chance
Speaker 2: to win. And if you're asking me who I want
Speaker 2: in that situation, I mean, that's not even close right now.
Speaker 2: Give me Daniels, gimme Washington win this game, take the three,
Speaker 2: take them on the money line, give me some Washington.
Speaker 1: Longhorn at six Central immediately regret.
Speaker 2: No, I don't know. I fucking don't. I stand by it.
Speaker 2: I love it. This is win is this game? Is
Speaker 2: this a three o'clock game? Yeah? Is it's free? Oh?
Speaker 2: I can't wait for this game.
Speaker 1: No, it should be a great game. So power rankers
Speaker 1: of this got the charters bugs, You got the Chargers v.
Speaker 1: Two though Washington d two charters forty eight to total. Here,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think it's lower scoring. I've
Speaker 1: got a great out the Chargers twenty three to twenty,
Speaker 1: which is really a no call for the BBG because
Speaker 1: at the two and a half or three, it's right
Speaker 1: on the fucking line. But that's forty three points well
Speaker 1: to the under. Both of these teams have struggled again
Speaker 1: in the red zone. I expect that to continue. It's
Speaker 1: a decent matchup for Herbs, it's but it's not good.
Speaker 1: It's a really really bad matchup for Daniels. And what
Speaker 1: the Redskins like to do is the point and half
Speaker 1: of the BBG. And the bigger thing to me is
Speaker 1: it's a good matchup for the Chargers running game. They
Speaker 1: should be able to run the ball if they can
Speaker 1: run the ball with Dobbins and the kiddo, not Dobbins,
Speaker 1: the kiddo and uh no they have two kiddos.
Speaker 2: Now you're playing the charters. Yeah, Hampton and Dobbins. It's
Speaker 2: pretty much it that they're running with Dobbins. No, it's
Speaker 2: it's just Hampton now because Naja Harris got hurt.
Speaker 1: That's right. So it should be a good matchup for Dobin.
Speaker 1: Not I said last week it was gonna be fucking
Speaker 1: Hampton's like breakout game. That it doesn't grade out that
Speaker 1: way on this one. But he should be okay, should
Speaker 1: you know, do a little bit better.
Speaker 2: He's looking good. He's he's looking really good. That he
Speaker 2: looks like a one for one game.
Speaker 1: He looked good. Yeah, but and I told you he
Speaker 1: was going to But I also told you that was
Speaker 1: going to for his one game. That he's looked good.
Speaker 2: So who's breaking out in this game?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not gonna be the Redskins running game.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that. And it's not gonna be Jayden.
Speaker 2: So, but it is gonna be Jayden. You shut your
Speaker 2: horse mouth.
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, the numbers agree with you,
Speaker 1: at least to the fact that it will be a
Speaker 1: close game. They may or may not cover the three.
Speaker 1: I don't have him winning. Look, it's just one of
Speaker 1: those spots that the Redskins don't go win. They just
Speaker 1: don't go win this game. So it is what it is.
Speaker 2: That's your daddy's Redskins. That's your daddy's Redskins. This is
Speaker 2: not your daddy's Redskins. Look.
Speaker 1: I love Jayden two. He is very special, but he's
Speaker 1: got a knee brace on.
Speaker 2: Oh. He could have played last week. He could have
Speaker 2: played last week. They held him out.
Speaker 1: But with the knee brace, he was hoping to get
Speaker 1: out of the knee bras. They're not gonna let him
Speaker 1: out of kne bras. He's not.
Speaker 2: I think you're just having RG three flashbacks PTSD right now,
Speaker 2: and it's uh, it is. It is very kind of
Speaker 2: on the same line. It's kind of a.
Speaker 1: Little scary, well, except that RG three was never as
Speaker 1: good at throwing the ball as Jade Dan, especially under pressure.
Speaker 1: An improvisational ship was great if it was his first
Speaker 1: read on a set up play, perfect in that Shanahan offense. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he like, if you reincarninated RG three and put him
Speaker 1: in the forty nine ers right now, they'd be fucking great.
Speaker 1: They would be the same thing as the Redskins were before. Like,
Speaker 1: it's just that's how those type of quarterbacks operate. But yeah,
Speaker 1: Jayden's so much further beyond that. But I can't get
Speaker 1: there with you on this one.
Speaker 2: The charters have a left tackle, and you know how
Speaker 2: much I have follow players and depth charts and draft
Speaker 2: they have a left tackle starting that I've literally never.
Speaker 1: Heard of they do.
Speaker 2: Someone has to play left tackle. Unfortunately, you can't not play,
Speaker 2: you can't go with a four man line, So I've
Speaker 2: never heard of him. He's graving, he's grading out terrible.
Speaker 2: The whole line. This looks like the Houston Texas Literally,
Speaker 2: the Houston Texas office line is way better than the
Speaker 2: grades that I'm stirring at for the charters. Opens the
Speaker 2: line right now. This is horrible. This is like worse
Speaker 2: than the league type offensive line gradings. Right now with
Speaker 2: it because they have three starters out obviously, Yeah.
Speaker 1: So if you try to play with four offensive Lindeman,
Speaker 1: it's just frowned up, like masturbating on an airplane.
Speaker 2: Thanks a lot, Ben Luden, Thanks a lot, Ben Ldden.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to those. Let's go buff
Speaker 1: Hm those built those are those new England Patriots. All right,
Speaker 1: So I've admitted whenever's wrong with the Bills. Preseason, I
Speaker 1: had a minus six. Vegas had a minus eight and
Speaker 1: a half. I think that's it definitely opened around there,
Speaker 1: but it's definitely come down when I got the money
Speaker 1: line up, hang on, it's around eight seven a half eight,
Speaker 1: So we open it ten. We're sitting actually sitting behind.
Speaker 1: It's coming back up now, so we're sitting between eight
Speaker 1: and a half and nine. So Vegas more right than
Speaker 1: me on this one, for sure, So let's call it
Speaker 1: let's call it eight point seventy five at this point.
Speaker 2: Climbing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's climbing back, but it opened it tens, so
Speaker 1: heavy money on the Patriots coming in first. Now late
Speaker 1: money's coming back into the bills to push this back up.
Speaker 1: I don't know how longer. What do you got on this?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is another it's another fiddle in the middle
Speaker 2: type game. We're gonna have to get both sivas to
Speaker 2: pull a drop with a fiddle so that we can
Speaker 2: we can because this week there's just a lot of them. Now, Uh,
Speaker 2: the fact that the that the numbers climbing for New England,
Speaker 2: let it keep climbing. Let's see what the ceiling is
Speaker 2: on this because as we've seen, the sweet spot against
Speaker 2: Josh Allen is when it gets to ten plus as
Speaker 2: him favored. I don't think it's gonna get there, you know,
Speaker 2: but like, just let it keep climbing, because because I
Speaker 2: want to take Buffalo down and the teasers and I
Speaker 2: want to play New England on the other side, this
Speaker 2: is Drake May's chance to kind of plant his flag
Speaker 2: as like, hey, we're coming, We're next. I'm the next
Speaker 2: big you know, like young quarterback that's that's gonna have
Speaker 2: You know, we've seen him do it against shitty teams.
Speaker 2: This is a chance to go on the road. He
Speaker 2: doesn't have to win this game, but if he can
Speaker 2: go to go tot to toe with Josh Allen, uh
Speaker 2: that that's a chance for him to say, Hey, I'm next.
Speaker 2: So it's a division game, huge division dog number. So
Speaker 2: I'm looking to play this middle. Already got Buffalo teased down.
Speaker 2: You should have already done that too, and then just
Speaker 2: late just wait and see see how see how big
Speaker 2: this number can climb for New England.
Speaker 1: Yeah, numbers agree with you there, so power Reagan's on
Speaker 1: Buffalo New England though, we got the buckets. But Buffalo's
Speaker 1: v the V two New England D two forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half is total sitting. I've got a pretty
Speaker 1: close to that. I got Buffalo win in twenty eight twenty.
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be a no call by the BPG.
Speaker 1: It's basically ride on the fucking line. It's an okay
Speaker 1: match up with Josh Dellen.
Speaker 2: Not great.
Speaker 1: He gains a half a point. It's not a terrible
Speaker 1: matchup for Drake may Henley loses a half a point,
Speaker 1: but it's not good. But on the flip side, Buffalo
Speaker 1: lose a half a point on their running game, which
Speaker 1: has been crucial to this team. New England gains. I
Speaker 1: have win of the running game, which will help the
Speaker 1: young quarterback continue to be established in this game and
Speaker 1: not get blown the fuck out. That's why it's right
Speaker 1: about the number. You know, I really wanted to be
Speaker 1: on New England here. I can't get there. It's I'm
Speaker 1: right at it. So yeah, if he gets a ten, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'll probably fire on New England for sure. Sitting at
Speaker 1: nine and several books right now, that's tempting enough on
Speaker 1: its own.
Speaker 2: That's good. That's a good number. Nine is a good number.
Speaker 1: Nine is a good number. But I'm gonna let it.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let it ride, like you said, and see
Speaker 1: where we get to come game day. All right, let's
Speaker 1: move on to I believe this is the football bat up.
Speaker 1: It is those Cansas City Chiefs, and they're going to
Speaker 1: my three and one Jacksonville. Who saw that shit coming?
Speaker 2: Not me?
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that. I'm gonna fucking laugh my balls
Speaker 1: off when I see this number. Okay, I had Kansas
Speaker 1: City minus five. They said it minus four and a half,
Speaker 1: So we were, you know, pretty lock step there. We're
Speaker 1: sitting it between three and a half and three live,
Speaker 1: so there are plenty of both available. Every three is juiced,
Speaker 1: every three and a half is juiced on the dog.
Speaker 1: So let's call it three point twenty five long horny.
Speaker 2: Ot on this. So as we're watching San fran go
Speaker 2: Totte with the Rams live twenty to twenty in the
Speaker 2: fourth quarter and they've got a chance to win his game,
Speaker 2: see how it ends up. That tells me that Jacksonville
Speaker 2: who beat the breaks off this San Francisco team in
Speaker 2: the trenches. It's I'm leaning that way. I'm just leaning
Speaker 2: that way. And historically, historically casey, as we know, is
Speaker 2: never good. Is over three points is never what you
Speaker 2: want to be laying with k C. Now, oh, almost
Speaker 2: intercepted with that ball. Let's do live commentary on a
Speaker 2: game that y'all can't see and and has already been
Speaker 2: finished by the time you listen. Isn't that fun? The
Speaker 2: trenches for the Jacksonville should be able to control this
Speaker 2: game on both sides. The the running game for Jacksonville
Speaker 2: is their strength, it is their identity and defense. Somehow
Speaker 2: for the Jacksonville Jaguars. That has become their identity and
Speaker 2: taking the ball away. They're one of the league leaders
Speaker 2: and taking the ball away. All those things point me
Speaker 2: to Jacksonville. And if San Francisco can win this game tonight,
Speaker 2: that just makes that just makes the the Jacksonville plus
Speaker 2: three and a half even stronger. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 2: it'll probably dip it down to they'll lose a half point.
Speaker 2: It'll go down to uh plus three for Jacksonville if
Speaker 2: San Francisco San Franciso can win this game. Now, my
Speaker 2: fear and also faith in this game is Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 2: because he has been god awful. He's been god awful
Speaker 2: and they're still winning, which tells me that we have
Speaker 2: not seen the ceiling on this team yet. Because if
Speaker 2: he can just get to where he's playing average quarterback,
Speaker 2: then it's gonna get then then and they're they're doing
Speaker 2: good in the trenches. They gotta get running in. They
Speaker 2: got a good defense. It takes the ball away. Man,
Speaker 2: Maybe we haven't even seen the best of this Jacksonville
Speaker 2: team yet. And Brian Thomas can't catch the ball all year,
Speaker 2: so how good can this team be? But bottom line,
Speaker 2: you don't historically lay three and a half with Casey
Speaker 2: that they play that they keep these games close. Casey
Speaker 2: might win by one, two or three, but they just
Speaker 2: don't win on margin these spots. So I'm on Jacksonville
Speaker 2: here on Monday night football.
Speaker 1: All right, So this is the game I dug into
Speaker 1: quite a bit, so strap in boys and girls. It's
Speaker 1: the last one. I didn't mean to do this to you,
Speaker 1: but I just happened to.
Speaker 2: So knock it.
Speaker 1: Out, powering great Jacksonville bucket k C V two D
Speaker 1: two k C forty six and a half the total.
Speaker 1: I've got to go in under that. I've got Kansas
Speaker 1: City winning twenty three to twenty in a nasty one.
Speaker 1: It's not a good match for Lawrence C. He loses
Speaker 1: half a point. It is a fantastic matchup for Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes against a point and a half. It is not
Speaker 1: a good match up with the Jacksonville unning game. They
Speaker 1: lose a half a point. It's a flat matchup for
Speaker 1: Kansas City's running game. So on this one, this is
Speaker 1: pretty straightforward.
Speaker 2: With the quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Mahomes has a clear advantage here. It's not really worth
Speaker 1: breaking down. It's not worth breaking down on the Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 1: I either, like you said, he's been fucking terrible all year,
Speaker 1: He's not gonna be good here either. But for me,
Speaker 1: what was interesting is that the BBG spit out that
Speaker 1: Jacksonville will not have great success running the ball, because
Speaker 1: if you look at Kansas City's run defense, it has
Speaker 1: been fucking awful so far, thirty first and EPA twenty
Speaker 1: ninth in success rate. So I was thinking, how the
Speaker 1: fuck are they losing to have a point? Did I
Speaker 1: fuck up? One of the fucking equations is what is
Speaker 1: going on? Jacksonville has been a top ten rushing offense
Speaker 1: so far this year, So I had to do a
Speaker 1: deeper dive on this, and I found that Jacksonville's best
Speaker 1: run is the inside zone. They run it twenty five
Speaker 1: percent of the time at six point two yards per
Speaker 1: tempt Longhorn. That's fucking amazing. Their second most used run
Speaker 1: is man concepts, they run thirty one percent of the
Speaker 1: time at a four point eight yards per clip, both
Speaker 1: well above league average. Kansas City's defense is not good
Speaker 1: against the run, but their best concept they defend is
Speaker 1: inside zone. They only allow three point four yards per attempt,
Speaker 1: the league average is for so they're excellent at it,
Speaker 1: but they don't defend MANICMPS man comps very well, giving
Speaker 1: up five point seven point five yards per tempt league
Speaker 1: average a four point two. So Jacksonville will struggle with
Speaker 1: their best running concept, but they but should have success
Speaker 1: with their most utilized running concept, which is why you
Speaker 1: want to see theo point five downgrade through the BBG.
Speaker 1: But inside of that, I did want to see directionally
Speaker 1: if this holds up well, Etn's best spot to run
Speaker 1: the ball in the inside zone concept is actually in
Speaker 1: the middle of the line where he averages almost it's incredible,
Speaker 1: almost ten yards per attempt and one hundred percent of
Speaker 1: his ninety five explosive yards on the season have come
Speaker 1: on that play in that concept. Well, if you look
Speaker 1: at Kansas City's defense up the middle against the inside zone,
Speaker 1: they go from three point four yards per attempt down
Speaker 1: to three point two. Their explosive play rate on that
Speaker 1: is only seven percent. They have given up two explosive
Speaker 1: runs on the entire season for a total of twenty
Speaker 1: four yards. Translation, I think Kansas City can stop the
Speaker 1: big play from happening here from ETN on those plays
Speaker 1: and without those plays this offense is fucking dead in
Speaker 1: the water. And three of the four Jacksonville games they
Speaker 1: have had, they've scored over twenty points, every one of
Speaker 1: them with an explosive run out of that set for
Speaker 1: Mets end. The one game he did not have one
Speaker 1: of those explosive runs of the set was versus Houston.
Speaker 1: They scored seventeen points and they should have lost by
Speaker 1: goddamn million, but of course they didn't because we had
Speaker 1: money on Houston. But by the way, Houston has a
Speaker 1: YPA against that concept for three point one, is only
Speaker 1: given a one explosive run on it all season, so
Speaker 1: same as Kansas City. Couple that with the fact that
Speaker 1: Patty should be Patty. Well, I've said for a long time,
Speaker 1: he's not been Patty for a while. He was fucking
Speaker 1: Patty last week. He should be Patty again this week.
Speaker 2: Got the weapon back, not the weapon back.
Speaker 1: I can't do anything. I can't do anything but lay
Speaker 1: the three points here with Kansas.
Speaker 2: City, period three or three and a half.
Speaker 1: It's a three a lot of places three point two five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So look, and I don't if you notice that
Speaker 2: I'm not taking this three and a half. It's on
Speaker 2: a forest I would at three, I would I would
Speaker 2: take case and it's it's Spagnolia against Trevor Lawrence. I
Speaker 2: just I don't like that.
Speaker 1: Not a good matchup for any anyway. Like I said,
Speaker 1: the quarterback him is a watch Patrickmon's always gonna have advantage.
Speaker 1: But that's why dove into the run against That's like
Speaker 1: you said, that's what Jacksonville, that's what's carried them after
Speaker 1: I dove in to see exactly what's carried them. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that inside inside zone run at one of ET's explosive
Speaker 1: plays have come on that play, and that is the
Speaker 1: one play, this terrible, terrible, terrible run defense for Kansas City.
Speaker 1: That's the one fucking concept that they are so fucking
Speaker 1: good at. If they if he doesn't get loose one
Speaker 1: of those forty yarders like he has in those other games,
Speaker 1: they're dead. This offense is fucking dead. The quarterback can't
Speaker 1: fucking play, the receivers can't fucking catch. Travis Hunter is
Speaker 1: fucking sucks.
Speaker 3: They're dead.
Speaker 1: They're dead.
Speaker 2: Good stuff, good stuff, mate.
Speaker 1: All right, boys and girls, that was all them wins
Speaker 1: coming to the ads, all right, Longhorn, As we wait
Speaker 1: to see if Matthew Safford can hindle of those bombs
Speaker 1: to save our balls like you did last week, I hope.
Speaker 1: So why don't we go with the Oh it's time
Speaker 1: for the free I said, three picks of the week
Speaker 1: long horn. Look, I feel it before you even say it.
Speaker 1: I feel it. Longhorn is getting off the snide this week, baby,
Speaker 1: I oh feel it, don't you goddamn pick those Jaguars though.
Speaker 2: Oh am, I am I on the snide because I'm
Speaker 2: above five hundred on the premium pigs. So if you're
Speaker 2: just just free picks, don't be cheap. Don't be cheap
Speaker 2: and go to the Patreon page and get the real picks,
Speaker 2: cause like these, these free picks can go.
Speaker 1: He's killing it's killing it over there.
Speaker 2: You know what, you know what I'm gonna do. Here's
Speaker 2: my new strategy on free picks. I'm bent against Tennessee
Speaker 2: every fucking week. I'm gonna go eighteen and three. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go eighteen. So give me those the Arizona Cardinals
Speaker 2: minus seven and a half is my free pick. This
Speaker 2: is a can't lose situation.
Speaker 1: How about that? That's a fucking solid, solid strategy. Or
Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna go to college free pick of
Speaker 1: the week. Oh, we're going deep to the fcs. We're
Speaker 1: going Nickel State and Lamar. Let's take the under forty
Speaker 1: four and a half?
Speaker 2: What high schools are those? What? What state did they play?
Speaker 2: High school?
Speaker 1: App Ohio. I believe these are two of the worst
Speaker 1: offenses all the FCS. I got it projected at forty eight,
Speaker 1: Like forty four and a half is the bottom. If
Speaker 1: he gets below that, don't go there. But you know
Speaker 1: what could go wrong? What could go wrong with picking
Speaker 1: an under a two of the worst offense? So that
Speaker 1: probably fucking score one hundred? Who knows? That's your college
Speaker 1: free pick of the week. All right, Lord tell me
Speaker 1: that Famulus Patreon one more time.
Speaker 2: Let's get out of here, all right, once again, go
Speaker 2: to that Patreon page, Patreon dot com, slash bet underscore
Speaker 2: f eight fgs. Don't rely on the free picks on
Speaker 2: the podcast. Don't rely on the free picks on the
Speaker 2: social media's go there, sign up for free, doesn't cau sanny,
Speaker 2: become a free member and then pick your favorite handicapper
Speaker 2: bo stevestive is a step for a huge bounce back
Speaker 2: this week. I'm looking to stack those units in the NFL,
Speaker 2: and let's do that. Let's do all of the winning.
Speaker 2: And let's I mean, as as our good Jewish friends
Speaker 2: would say, get all of the money. So people stop
Speaker 2: throwing away you're harder money on the guessing game. Let
Speaker 2: the pros do the heavy lifting. So sign up, tell
Speaker 2: a friend, and join in on the fun watching football,
Speaker 2: drinking beer. And never pay a booky again, Come.
Speaker 1: On, a damns, people, never pay a book against Steven
Speaker 1: sal Let's take a soup.
Speaker 2: We love you Jews
Speaker 1: Shot were not things we know about