Speaker 1: It looks like the markets are primed and ready to
bounce for maybe three or four weeks. And that big
question is is it a bounce before it rolls over
and we go into something like twenty twenty two another
small bear market or larger than that, or is the
market going to bounce, stabilize and actually want to build
a launchpad to go even higher. So we really got
to you one bar at a time. It depends what
various assets are doing for right now. As you mentioned,
oil is down, it's looking pretty weak. That's not a
good economic indicator. Gold is skyrocketing, hitting all time highs,
telling us the world is nervous and fearful.
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Speaker 3: Ever, And welcome you are listening to and watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, you're
already at March nineteenth. March is ticking away. Market has
been very dicey lately. Gold amazing, oil down, dollar down,
interest rates, maybe they're going down too. But we want
to talk with the technical traders dot com. Chris Hermulein. Chris,
great to connect with you again. So Trump is in office,
the stock market is having some indigestion, isn't it.
Speaker 1: No doubt? Yeah, and thanks for having me back on
the show. Carry Yeah, the markets are wild for sure.
We've got Trump throwing landmines out every day. You don't
know what he's going to say or do. He's making
it difficult for I think short term traders. But overall,
I mean the overall trend of the markets I believe
are still really giant hides in the market, and news
is usually short term blips and dips on the market.
And you're right, it has been very volatile. We've seen
a lot of selling in the equities markets. We're seeing
quite a bit of damage being done on a technical standpoint,
a lot of momentum to the downside, a lot of
heavy selling volume, a lot of fear and stocks though
they are beat up and they're a little over sold,
and just based on the charts and some cycle analysis,
it looks like the markets are primed and ready to
bounce for maybe three or four weeks, And that big
question is is it a bounce before it rolls over
and we go into something like twenty twenty two another
small bear market or larger than that, or is the
market going to bounce, stabilize and actually want to build
a launch pad to go even higher. So we really
got to you at one bar at a time. It
depends what various assets are doing for right now, as
you mentioned, oil is down, it's looking pretty weak. That's
not a good economic indicator. Gold is skyrocketing, hitting all
time highs, telling us the world is nervous and fearful
and they want to get out of the financial system
because they don't trust banks, they don't trust the government,
and they want physical holder money in a physical asset.
So there's a lot of chaos, kind of the in
the cards. When you read the taret cards of the charts,
there's a nervousness.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you know, my portfolio not doing so great,
but it's been more than an offset by the appreciation
in gold, you know, thirty thirty gold, you know, what
can you say about it? And now even silver is
starting to react it's approaching thirty four bucks. Tell us
your forecast moving ahead, we can have a pullback on gold,
or because it's really gone a little bit, it's gone
too much too soon, you know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's in a pretty major super cycle
in a bullish phase. We had a target at three
fifty was our next measured move target, saying that's where
gold should run to for that first level, and based
on that, we're pretty much at that level. Thirty fifty
to thirty sixty. Is that is that area? I think
gold still though, has a lot of upward momentum. If
gold really was to take off and break through this level,
then it's going to about thirty two hundred. So we
need to see how it's going to move at this
kind of three thy fifty area. I have feeling we're
going to see a little bit of a pause, which
is actually a good thing. If it pauses here based
on Fibinaci theory and technical analysis, that means the momentum
triggers and the momentum levels are accurate. And if it
pauses at this level, that means it wants to go
up and hit that one hundred percent measured move which
is around thirty two hundred dollars per ounce for gold,
so you definitely don't want to picking the top in gold.
Speaker 3: Gold.
Speaker 1: The precious metal space has been the sweet spot for
the last couple of years. It continues to be the
sweet space, and it's picking up momentum, telling us I
think we're actually getting closer and closer to it, you
knowomic kind of crisis and a bear market inequities and
gold will get pulled down to some extent when that happens,
but until then, gold really is the low's volatility, the
highest probability of making more money going forward if you
don't want to be stepping into the ring with a
star mass of pops and drops and presidential kind of
news shaking limbs up.
Speaker 3: All right, So do you have an opinion on silver?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean silver is similar ish. I mean it's
breaking out, it's it's moving higher, it's trying to break
this thirty five range. I do think we could see
silver potentially squeeze and run up a little bit higher
all the way to about forty six, forty six or
forty seven dollars. So percentage wise, there's still a half
decent move in silver, but the overall chart pattern for it.
It has a pattern that's unfolding that I call three
surges to a high, and it usually ends very abruptly
with a strong reversal. And right now the trend is up,
and so I do think when the economy potentially turns
the corner and the momentum in the precious metal space
stalls out, I think silver is going to have a
pretty big haircut. But money's flowing into the space because
it's nervous. I do prefer gold myself because it's at
all time eyes, there's no overhead resistance, and it's more
stable silver Silver can fall very quickly, so it's not
something you want to I wouldn't want to dump a
ton of money in because you can wipe out five
fifteen percent of value in a couple of trading sessions,
whereas gold. A big down day on gold is like
one two percent. You need a few of those back
to back to do some real damage to a portfolio.
So that's why gold tends to do very well. It's
kind of the global barometer of fear. It's the most
stable way to store your money outside of like you
know stocks and real estate, and you know silver and
miners they're all very volatile. You can put large store
of money into gold and not have to sweat worrying
about it, you know, losing twenty percent in a week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true. But the volatility. With volatility comes much
more potential for upsized gains, right for sure.
Speaker 1: And that really comes down to the type of trader
or investor and where they are in their life cycle, right,
Like my focus is on and who I mostly I
help most with are people generally fifty plus who have
a lot of wealth and they don't want to give
it back. They're not swinging for the fences. They're not
looking for big volatility effect. They're looking for capital preservation.
How can they keep making money no matter what happens
in the market, versus trying to make a whole bunch
and take a lot of risks. So obviously there's two
sides of the camp. I'm the side of people who
love gold, who love currency, who love moving in on
waves in full asset classes like the stock indexes or
bonds when they're moving, not people who want to go
into crypto and trade you know, individual stocks and and
try to play whatever is in the news. So I
definitely cater to the low volatility, but consistent returns for
large amounts of money versus volatile a bunch of small trades,
swinging for the fences for some you know, a bunch
of grand slams and stuff. That's that's just not the
style or focus that I do.
Speaker 3: All right, So yeah, uh understand what you're saying there.
So how does this affect gold and the dollar.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've definitely seen a dollar we get pretty beat
up with Trump and the tariff talks. You know, could
slow the economy, it could create inflation. There's all kinds
of different people saying different things. The dollar has definitely
been beaten up. I think. I think most of the
tariff news has now been kind of worked into the dollar.
It's it's fallen down to about this one oh three
one oh four range, which is when you look back
on a long term try and go back several years,
it's the middle high volume area where it should find support.
It's in the middle of a range from really twenty
twenty three all the way to twenty twenty five, and
so the dollar has fallen. It's I think it's worked
its way through the tariff news and now it's trying
to find stability, and I think if the economy still weakens,
I think we're seeing the dollar perform very well in
a long term trend. When you zoom back many, many years.
It is a noisy chart, the dollar index, but it
is moving up into the right, a series of higher lows,
series of higher highs, and I think we could see
a pretty big move. It's at one to three right now.
I think it could go to one sixteen, potentially one twenty.
So there's it's not huge percentage wise, but it's a
nice slow moving asset class and it usually does well
during chaos and financial uncertainty.
Speaker 3: All right, Hey, so you know interest rates they've been
heading down. The administration seems to be thrilled about it.
But the fact is that could be in dick of
a recession, couldn't it. Yeah? I think so.
Speaker 1: I mean the short term, you know daily chart of
you know, the ten year note, it looks looks a
little bearish. It looks like it's it's in a downtrend
right now. It's got a little bear flag. It looks
like it could could want to fall a little bit
actually and have another leg down, which means bonds could
go up for a little bit, But in the grand
scheme of things, I still think we're going to see
yields continue to hold up and bonds are going to struggle.
I think when you look at the big picture of
the ten year note, it's kind of got a long term,
kind of big topping phase. When you look at the
long term chart of TLT, which is the long term
treasury bond, it has a long term bottom. It looks
like it's trying to form a bottom, but doesn't mean
they've fully bottomed and they're about to. You know, the
dollar is not gonna or sorry, bonds are not going
to just take off and rally, and I don't think
interest rates are just going to fall out of bed
and drop. So I do think they are kind of
a painful play. A lot of people been moving into
bonds for the last couple of years saying, hey, bonds
have bottomed, and wild bonds may have bottomed, I'm not
really expecting them to rally and generate huge returns anytime soon,
so it's kind of dead money. I like to get
into something when it is bottomed and it has started
an up trend, meaning it's going to consistently be going
higher and right now bonds are still in a bottoming, choppy,
noisy environment that wastes a lot of time. And as
you know, the only thing more valuable than money more
or less is time. And that's the one thing that
I avoid is I don't hold assets going sideways because
it's a waste of time. I move our money to
an asset class that is generating returns and doesn't have
any downside risk or very little downside risk. And so
the bond market, I'm you know, we're on the sidelines.
We're not touching the bond marker right now until I
think we see them starting a new rally to the upside,
and then I think there's going to be a great
opportunity to hold bonds. I think they could become one
of the best performers potentially the second half of this
year to do twenty twenty six. So I'm not ruling
them out. I'm just saying they're kind of a waste
of time right now, and they're a waste of risk.
You don't need to risk your money for something going sideways.
Wait until it's in an up trend and there could
be some pretty decent returns there.
Speaker 3: Okay, So its going to be interesting to see what
happens here. What's your personal opinion here.
Speaker 1: Well, I think my outlook, I think this is going
to this year. We're going to see the equities market
top out. I think we're gonna see the economy have
a big reset. I think oil is going to break
down in a very big way. And I think shorting
or playing an inverse ETF on the energy sector is
actually going to be a very interesting play. There's huge divergence.
Oil has been going down for the past couple of years,
Energy stock prices have been going up for the past
couple of years, and there's this very big to me
bearish divergence. And I think oil is on the cusp
of breaking down and falling to potentially fifty five fifty
dollars a barrel, and energy stocks are going to get hit.
Couple that with a bear market, which naturally pulls stocks down.
I think we could see like a forty to sixty
percent correction in energy stocks and the energy sector. Like ery,
is kind of like an inverse two X in inverse play.
So I think there's gonna be some amazing opportunity to
the downside. The markets have not topped yet, they're not
in a down trend, so we're not picking the top,
but we're we're mentally prepared. We have some trades in
the wings that we're watching and tracking so we can
take advantage of falling markets through inverse ETFs or moved
to the dollar potentially bonds. So I think this year
is going to be the year that changes a lot
of people's lives in terms of financial things turned down
in real estate bottoms I think going to fall out
there later this year, and people just need to be aware.
It's about capital preservation more so and being able to
just etch out some returns versus trying to make money
and potentially losing thirty to fifty percent of your account.
So this is gonna be a huge year, life changing
for anyone in retirement who doesn't take action and doesn't
protect themselves. The buying old strategy is pretty much a
taking time bomb for anybody forty five plus at this point,
because you could waste five to ten years with this
next downturn before we potentially even hit new hives. And
that's kind of the whole reason why I've been teaching
and showing this strategy I called asset revesting, which is
a book I published last year is really my whole
vision and mission is like how many people can I
save in retirement from the next crisis that that's coming
and being prepared is the first step.
Speaker 3: So when is it coming here?
Speaker 2: Though?
Speaker 3: I mean we've been waiting for it for a dozen
years already.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, that's that's the thing with technical analysis
is I mean, it's not about me saying, hey, it's
going to happen, you know, on a specific date or year.
We follow price, and if the prices keeps going up,
even though I've beenmbarrassed for a couple of years, ever years,
but we're still long the markets where we're still riding
the trends up. You have to differentiate between what you
think feel and what the markets are actually doing. So
while I prepare, everybody prepare there could be chaos, and no,
you need a plan. We're not going to like do
this and until the actual trend changes, and we're going
to stay long until then. And it doesn't really matter
when it happens, because we're riding these trends higher, generating
their returns. And when finally things do turn around, which
I do think will be this year, then well we've
already got a game plan. There is no shock in awe.
It's not going to catch us off guard. Will be
like perfect. Things are breaking down. You know, we're be
rotating our capital from one asset class to another. But
you know, if you're looking for a date, nobody can
really do it very well. I mean it's you know,
if you do, it's you kind of is a fluke.
But it's very difficult to time. You can all make downturns.
Speaker 3: All right, So when we talk again next March nineteenth,
in twenty twenty six, where's where do you think Gold's
going to be twenty twenty six, I would think gold.
I think gold could be probably back down around I
would say maybe twenty five hundred dollars an ounce. I
think it will have bottomed. I think it will be
moving up or building a base maybe maybe higher than that,
maybe maybe twenty six twenty seven hundred, And then once
it starts out of that base, then I think it's
offered to the five seven.
Speaker 1: Nine thousand range. Who knows where it's going to go
depends on the chart pattern it forms. But I'm definitely
bullish on precious metals long term. But over the next
year I'm not really that bullish on it. Most of
the run has already happened, I believe, and now it's
kind of wait for a pause and reset if you're
not if you don't own it and you're not in it,
I wouldn't I wouldn't really be buying it here because
I think there's going to be a discounted price here
soon for you know, potentially six eight, nine months to
pick it up at a better price.
Speaker 3: That wouldn't be unusual at all, all right, So just
tell us where we find you, Chris, How you connect,
How we connect with you on the web. Yeah. Sure.
Speaker 1: You can see my charts analysis and watch me kind
of go through the markets on my YouTube channel. Just
search up the Technical Traders, or you can go to
my website, the Technical Traders dot com. And I share
my newsletter, I invest my own capital, and I just
share exactly what I'm doing, what I'm thinking and seeing
in the charts, share my portfolio and allocations, send out
trade alerts anytime I do something. And my book Asset Revesting,
It's on our website or on Amazon. If you're interested
in learning about holding only assets going up and having
five to twelve trades a year using ETFs.
Speaker 3: Excellent, Hey gut in questions for Chris myself klat Kerrie
lets dot com is the email address, and you'll find
a link to Chris's site in the show notes of
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there,
we just asked that you sign up for free newsletter
over seventy thousand close to seventy five thousand of you
have already over the years, and goes out generally weekly. Chris,
we will talk to you again. Be well.
Speaker 1: Thanks carry you too, Thanks.
Speaker 2: For listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network your solution
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