Speaker 1: I'm going to say a bunch of things that probably
I shouldn't say, but but that's what keeps it interesting.
Have you watched any other annual shareholder meeting? Honestly, it's
like if you need to go to sleep. Sure, I
mean that other shareholder meetings are like snoozefest, but ours
are bangers. Look, this is sick. Yeah, We're got like
the cyberpunk nightclub here with real robots just standing there
and milling around and dancing and round out our engineering
headquarters in palab Alto. The robots just walking around the
office twenty four to seven with no one minding them.
They just and then they go charge themselves. And Yeah,
the scale of Optimists, I like, I said, that's really
gonna be something else. I think it's gonna be the
biggest product of all time by far. Yeah, so bigger
than cell phones, bigger than anything.
Speaker 2: I guess the way to think about it is that.
Speaker 1: Every human on earth is gonna want to have their
own personal R two D two C three field, So
who wouldn't. But actually, optimists will be even better than
the like O R two D two would beep at
you and hard to figure out what is good talking
about three field to translate, but Optimist is gonna be.
Speaker 2: Like, everyone's gonna want one.
Speaker 1: I think in terms of industry providing products and services,
I think it's probably I don't know, three to five
robots in industry for everyone that's a personal robot. I
think there could be tens of billions of Optimist robots
out there now. Obviously it's very important we pay close
attention to safety here because we do want the Star
Wars movie, not.
Speaker 2: The Gim Cameron movie. I love Jim Cameron's movies.
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, So we're gonna launch on the fastest
production ramp of any product, of any large complex manufacturer
product ever and starting with building a million unit production
line in Fremont, and that's Line one, and then a
ten million unit per year production line here on the
I don't know where we're gonna put one hundred million
unit production line, maybe on Mars, I don't know, but
I think it's gonna literally get to one hundred million
a year, maybe even a billion a year. And if
you can get to the five second cycle time. So
it's a lot of cars. So these will be everywhere
in the future. Oh, and wanted, We wanted to look futuristic,
so like it changes the look of the roads.
Speaker 2: Now. The Yeah, the ingredients.
Speaker 1: When you look at what Optimists is, what's required to
make Optimists and the various ingredients. What do you need
to do to make to do high volume humanoid robot production.
Speaker 2: I think it's worth considering that.
Speaker 1: Really the cars we make are already robots, but there
are four wheeled robots. So Tesla is already the biggest
robot manufacturer in the world because every car we make
is a robot.
Speaker 2: And when you break it down to the fundamental.
Speaker 1: Elements, you've got batteries, power electronics, motors, gearboxes, you've got connectivity,
you've got a vision based AI high optimists and all
the various pieces that you need for a humanoid robot.
You need the AI chip, you need the AI software,
you need to build manage a large fleet. And so
really Optimus is a robot with arms and legs as
opposed to a robot with wheels. Telsa's ideally suited I
think to make to succeed in this arena, you will
see certainly many companies showing demonstration robots. There's really three
things that are super difficult about robots. One is the
engineering of the forum in hand, because the human hand
is an incredible thing. Actually, it's super dexterous engineering the
hand really well, the real world AI, and then volume manufacturing.
Those are generally the things that are missing one or
more of those things missing from other companies. So Telsa
is the only one that has all three of those.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yes, So this is the Optimist kind of initial it's
kind of a prototype production line.
Speaker 2: The high volume production line.
Speaker 1: Will be very automated, obviously, but this is really the
production line that we use to make the prototypes. So
you can get a sort of rough sense for what
it takes to build the robot.
Speaker 2: You got to pull the finger.
Speaker 1: And then, as I've said before, I think once we
reach about a million units per year of sustained production,
or in excess of that, I think probably the cost
of production is around twenty thousand dollars in curry your dollars,
so this will be something very affordable. And yeah, like
I said, I think Optimists will ultimately increase the size
of the economy, probably by a factor of ten or
or next year we start production with Optimist version three.
This is what you're seeing here is Optimists version two
point five. Optimist three is an incredibly good design. The
tales the engineering team is amazing. When you see Optimists three, Yeah,
it will seem as though that there's someone like a
person in a robot outfit, which is how we started
with Optimists.
Speaker 2: It really is going to be something special.
Speaker 1: And then Optimist Optimus four that hopefully starts production in
twenty seven, and then Optimus five and twenty eight, so
it's like an annual release cycle with significant improvements with
each one and gigantic increases in the scale of production. Yeah,
sustainable abundance via AI in robotics, that's the future. Credible
and as I think most people here know, the safety
statistics show that miles driven on FSD are much safer
than miles driven without it. What this will translate to
ultimately is saving the lives of millions of people and
preventing hundreds of millions of accidents.
Speaker 2: So a massive.
Speaker 1: Increase in lives solved and tragedy is avoided.
Speaker 2: It's going to be amazing.
Speaker 1: How many people here have tried fourteen point one? Okay,
all right, cool, Yeah, you can see the even with
the point releases, it's getting quite a bit better. Should
be pretty smooth at this point, but really fourteen point
two is there are major changes to fourteen point two
and then fourteen point three, and I think by fourteen
point three is when we'll really be at the point
where you can just pretty much pull asleep and wake
up at your destination. And then I've been putting a
lot of time into the new Tesla chip design because
in order to have a functional robot, you have to
have a great AI chip, and it needs to be
an inexpensive chip, and it needs to be very power efficient.
So we believe the AI five chip will be probably
about a third of the power of say something like
a Blackwell and a video Blackwell, which is a great
chip for roughly a comparable performance and much less than
ten pescent of the cost. So this is a chip
that is very much optimized for the Tesla AI software stack.
So it's not meant to be a general purpose chip.
It's meant to be an amazing chip for the Tesla
AI software And a couple of things that I think
make like how E Tailless are able to achieve such
an improvement. I think it is because because we are specialized,
we're not trying to Nvidia has to serve the superset
of all past and future customers, so all of their requirements,
all of the software that they're written, has to work,
which is a very difficult problem, whereas we just need
to make it work for our software, and so we're
able to simplify the chip dramatically. And then we also think,
I think we're unique in this, but we have an
integer based system, and integer operations are fundamentally more efficient
than floating point operations, so we can do floating point
but we but the vast majority of our inference is
done in integer, which is, if you're familiar with sort
of logic gates like the simplicity of integer, and it's
integer is much more power eficient and much more silicon efficient.
But you have to you actually have to train for
integer inference, which everyone else is training for flooding point.
It's like a niche technical detail, but it's actually very important.
Speaker 2: This is going to be a great chip.
Speaker 1: So this chip will be made in basically in four places, TISMC, Taiwan,
Samsung Career, TSMC Arizona, and TSOMC Texas.
Speaker 2: And we already know what improvements to make for AI six.
Speaker 1: So I'm hopeful that we can within less than the
year of AI five starting production, we can actually transition
in the same fab to AI six and double all
of the performance metrics. I'm super hardcore on chips right now,
as you may be able to tell chips on the brain,
I dream about chips literally. I can drow the at
least the broad rush stroke physical design of the A
I five chip by well by heart.
Speaker 2: At this point, it's a good chip. It's good chips, sir,
So this is really key. Now.
Speaker 1: One of the things I'm trying to figure out is
how do we make enough chips. I have a lot
of respect for our the Tesla partners, TSMC and Samsung. Yeah,
maybe we'll do something with Intel. We haven't signed any deal,
but it's probably worth having discussions with Intel. But even
when we extrapolate the best case scenario for chip production
from our suppliers, it's still not enough. So I think
we may have to do a Tesla Terra fab. It's
like Gigabit way bigger. I can't see any other way
to get to the volume of chips that that we're
looking for, So I think we're probably gonna have to
build a gigantic chip fab Yeah, gotta be done. So anyway,
some of this stuff I've already talked about. Yep, we've
done a tremendous amount for sustainable energy and that is
only going to grow over time. The world is moving
towards a solar battery economy, which is ultimately the that's
it's where, that's where it's going to go anyway. But
what tells us do is accelerate, accelerate that outcome. Sometimes
people don't understand quite how much energy comes from the Sun.
So the Sun is ninety nine point eight percent of
all mass in the solar system being zero point one percent,
and then zero point one percent is miscellaneous, Earth being
in the miscellaneous category. So the total amount of energy.
So some nice people, what say, will build the fusion
reactors on Earth, it's actually the giant fusion reactor in
the sky is basically impossible to beat to such agree
that even if you could burn Jupiter in a thermon
nuclear reactor, the amount of energy produced by the Sun
would still round up to one hundred percent. That's how
much energy the Sun produces. So solar power is necessarily
the future, and I think there's going to be a
lot of solar powered AI satellites, and I think Tells
is going to play a role in that. We've obviously
refreshed the product line so S three x Y. If
if people haven't tried the well S three x or
Y or the Cybertry, I recommend at least getting a
test drive or a test ride as the case may be,
try out the full self driving and I think you'll
be blown away to those who do not. If you
might be listening and don't have a Tesla, you should
try one. And of course we've got the cyber Truck,
which is the toughest truck of all time. It's literally bulletproof,
faster than a Portion nine eleven and can out toe
at Ford F three fifty.
Speaker 2: So it's a great car, great truck.
Speaker 1: And then starting next year, we manufacture the Tesla Semi.
So this is already we already have a lot of
prototype Tesla Semis in operation. PepsiCo and other companies have
been using the a Tesla Semi for quite some time.
But we will start volume production at our Northern Nevada
factory in twenty twenty six. So we've got two big
products or three three massive products starting production next year,
we've got optimists, we've got Tesla Semi, and we've got
the cybercap.
Speaker 2: And then battery packs. So the if you look at total.
Speaker 1: US power generation capability, it's roughly a tero WAT, but
the average power usage is less than half a tarrawatt,
and that's because there are big differences in power usage
between day and night. So daily and seasonal variations in
power consumption mean that the United States and really every
country is only using about half It is only producing
about half as much electrical energy as it could because
without batteries, there's no effective way to buffer the energy.
So what batteries actually enable is even if you don't
build any incremental power plants, you could double the energy
output of the United States just with batteries.
Speaker 2: This is a super.
Speaker 1: Big deal, and in fact, I think that's really where
most of the incremental energy production in the United States
is going to come from.
Speaker 2: It's literally batteries, so a.
Speaker 1: Bigger deal than it may seem. And then we've got
we keep improving the battery design, so the megablock, which
makes it really easy to deploy battery utility scale batteries.
Speaker 2: So we've just simplified and.
Speaker 1: Brought more of the components to be internal to the batteries,
so you can just show up and drop off a
battery and it works, and then hopefully without hopefully over
time we will actually add more and more of the
power electronics so that megapac will actually be able to
output up to thirty five killer volts directly, so you
won't need to up station.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. You can just.
Speaker 1: Literally drop it off, like the way that a power wall.
You just connect it to the house. The utility wires
go on one side and the other side goes to
the house mains and that's it. So we want to
get megapacked to the point where you just literally take
the utility wires and you plug them in and it
just works. Then we've got We've also built the world's
largest supercharger network, so we do a lot of things
here at Tesla. That's the biggest supercharger network in the
world by far, and ultimately you'll be able to go
anywhere on Earth using a Tesla supercharger. And it's pretty
close to anywhere on Earth, but it's it's going to
be ultimately just anywhere.
Speaker 2: It'll just work anywhere.
Speaker 1: The supercharger team has done great work expanding that and
improving the efficiency of the supercharger network, and in North
America they did such a good job that the other
car companies basically said that they'll just use the Tesla
supercharge network.
Speaker 2: Okay, sounds good to us.
Speaker 1: It's always important to have it a slant on safety
in the factory, so we continue to improve safety.
Speaker 2: For our factory workers.
Speaker 1: We care a lot about their well being, and like
one way you can just tell if a company is
a good company or not if you just walk through the.
Speaker 2: Factory or walk through the office and.
Speaker 1: Catch the vibe, and the vibe in the tails of
factory is good. People are happy, and that's how you
know it's a good company. We've also put a lot
of investment into raw materials. We've built in South Texas
and Corpus Christy the biggest lithium refinery outside of China,
I believe. So it's going to it's starting off up
with fifty gig what hours of lithium and we'll expand
from there. So this is a very important to have
in a worst case scenario, that we have the ingredients
necessary to make a battery very important. And then we've
got here on this site, the Cathode factory, which is
just the sort of giant building about a half mile
that way, and we're just making sure that we promised
supply chain standpoint are resilient against any potential geopltical challenges.
And then also at this factory we also make the
forty six eighty cell, which is getting better and better,
and that forty six eighty cell will be used in
the cybercab cyber It is being used in the cyber truck,
and we'll be used in the cybercab and also an optimus.
So that's going well. But we continue obviously to get
cells from many suppliers. It's kind of like the chip
bad thing. Will take as many chips as our suppliers
can provide us, but then beyond that, if they can
provide us with any incremental cells or chips we have
making ourselves or we get stuck. That's the Tesla semi factory.
It's going to be pretty cool to see these going
down the road and scale.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So that's the basic plan, sustainable abundance for all.
Speaker 2: All right, So.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess we can go into Queen now, maybe
at the next annual shoulder meeting. We'll have optimists takes
some of the questions. That'd be cool. So let's see Alejohn,
thank you for your help.
Speaker 3: By the way, Yeah, please go ahead, is it?
Speaker 4: No, let me hold it.
Speaker 1: It's okay.
Speaker 5: What a year has been?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 4: Just a year ago President Trump got elected on the
same day. These twelve months have been a heck of
twelve months. Thank you to the board because I think
they had to weather quite some storms. Institutional investors, and
obviously thank you to you, and we stand with you.
I think we showed it and we will show.
Speaker 2: It at.
Speaker 4: So we would like to express a wish please. This
is a nice venue. We love coming to the factory
and I think it's actually great we're doing this at
the factory. But there are thousands of retail investors who
are crying because they cannot they come to me. I
love taking the Mama, but I now give it to you.
Please organize a bigger venue, a bigger than Berkshire, and
we will do better than Berkshire.
Speaker 1: Okay, sure we can pay. Yeah, see, Tessa will be
very bigger than Berkshire. Long term, it's gonna be naughty,
all right. We'll do the next one were able in
the yeah, like the yeah, maybe they're downtown arena or
the soccer stadium or something like that, and get your
security check.
Speaker 4: We want to make sure that you're safe.
Speaker 2: What if I just we.
Speaker 4: But we want to party. And if you can bring
the other Elon companies there as well, let's just.
Speaker 1: Would really appreciate.
Speaker 2: All right, So that's good.
Speaker 4: Thank you very much for listening to.
Speaker 2: Elon as a father.
Speaker 6: I just want to first thank you for the everything
you're doing in the world, especially freedom of speech.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 6: And one question. Will you a Tesla ever consider FSD
tied to an owner's account rather than a vehicle to
encourage more frequent upgrades, provided a transfer is to only
a brain new Tesla vehicle, while flustering brand loyalty. If
the vehicle has sold the trade of about upgrade to
another Tesla f S, the ownership would end.
Speaker 1: We have done that a few times. I guess we
could extend it again. All right, we'll extend it. We'll
extend it for at least another quarter and then play
it by a year after that.
Speaker 7: All right, howdy Elon, congrats on not having to show
up to work for free anymore.
Speaker 8: Yeah, we now have over a forty billion dollar war chest.
Speaker 7: We're cash flow positive and remain that. We know how
you feel about FIAT already.
Speaker 2: Is it time to take a look at bitcoin?
Speaker 7: What's your belief on that? Also, you've hinted towards that
there's a wheelchair accessible model in the works where you're
referring to the Reboven, and if so, can we please
speed up production to help the least fortunate.
Speaker 2: Sure?
Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously we need a vehicle that's big enough to
fit a wheelchair wheelchair accessible.
Speaker 2: So I think that.
Speaker 1: That is the Reboven or Robust or whatever we call it.
It's not like we're slowing down because we want to
slow down. It's like we're spending in like gazillion plates here.
But I do think it would be very cool because
I think esthetically as well, it's just it's just would
change the look of the roads and make it feel
like the future.
Speaker 2: So it won't be long before we.
Speaker 1: Make that, but it's but since we do have optimists,
the we've got cybercaf optimists and semi all next year
it will probably have to be maybe the year that,
you know, a couple of years from now or something
like that. But we certainly will make a wheelchair accessible vehicle.
Speaker 9: Thanks Hi, so she I was privileged enough to attend
the investor day, And you've also talked about the factory
being a product, and I saw the dry cathode method
and so forth, and I wanted to know the progress
in that and also would often be working on that
in the future production line in the future.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess the dry cathode man that's turned out
to be a lot harder than we thought.
Speaker 2: It does. Looked like it's going to be successful and it.
Speaker 1: Will have some cost advantage relative to wet cathode. But
if had to wind the clock back, I would probably
have gone with wet cathode instead of dry cathode because
it just turned out to be a lot harder to
make it capable of high buluing production with super higher liability. Yeah,
but we will be we will be scaling up battery
cell production at Tesla and looking for cell production from
ou suppliers as well, because we're going to be ramping
up production very dramatically at Tesla now that we believe
we have full self dropping, that we have autonomy solved,
or at least or within a few months of having
it unsupvised autonomy solved at a reliability level significantly better
than human It's not that means it's time to ramp
up production because the value proposition is.
Speaker 2: Now much greater than a regular car.
Speaker 1: The killer app really is for people, can you text
and drive or can you sleep and drive? Can you
can the car take you to your destination? Or do
you need to pay attention and be and.
Speaker 2: Have to drive it?
Speaker 1: And before we allow the car to be driven without
paying attention, we need to make sure it's very safe.
Speaker 2: But like I said, we're on the cusp of that.
Speaker 1: I know said that a few times, but we really
are at this point and you can feel it for
yourselves with the fourteen point one release. So the what
we're going to try to we're going to push to
expand vehicle production as fast as we possibly can. So
aspirationally would aim to increase vehicle production by about fifty
percent by the end of next year. So yeah, so
that's it's very hard to increased production, but that's roughly
I don't know, maybe we get I'm just guessing at
an exit rate by the Internet year of around two
point six two point seven million vehicles annualized production and
then aim to get to maybe four million by the
annualized rate by the end of twenty seven, and then
maybe five million by the end of twenty eight. Those
are rough those are our aspirational goals. So these are
This is a gigantic increase in output, which means that
the entire supply chain has to move in unison with
that with that increase in volume, and the nature of
producing a large, complex product is that it moves as
fast as the least lucky, dumbest element in the entire system.
And there's ten thousand plus items. But this, like I said,
this really is a new It's not just a new
chapter for Teesla. It's a new book, and that new
book is massively increasing vehicle production and ramping up OPTIMS
production faster than any things ever been wrapped up before
in history.
Speaker 2: Awesome, Elon, thank you, Thank you from all of us.
Speaker 10: The retail shareholders really care and so echo the sentiment
of a larger venue work can come as a testament
to that. I was here, I was fortunate enough to
be her last year and since then touring the factory
talking to people that work here. I'm just a retail shareholder,
but increase my holdings twelve times, So I know it's
really engaging and gives people confidence, and so thank you
for having us, and I do echo that I hope
it grows. Last year, I'm the one that asked you
about your well being and safety.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, full life.
Speaker 10: It was a broad general question and it was before
some of the uncertainty that's unfolded since then. And yes,
I hope that had a positive impact and we all care.
Speaker 2: And so my question this year.
Speaker 10: You've talked recently about the most mind blowing product demo
of all time and a shot at being the most
memorable product.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah ever roadster. Yeah yeah.
Speaker 10: And I have patiently been waiting on my Founder's series
Roaster Reservation on behalf of the Founder Series. Guys that
have stuck in there, can we be unvited to this unveil?
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, sure, absolutely definitely.
Speaker 10: Okay, yes, all Founders series can be in.
Speaker 1: Yes, it's the least we could do, frankly for people
that have along suffering Roaster Reservation holders. The I I
feel confident in saying it will be the most exciting
product on bail ever, and I hope that whether it
goes well or it doesn't go well.
Speaker 10: Some them up here. Can I get the first one?
Speaker 1: I guess the it's according to who whoever put down
the deposits in that sequence, So that's the but you'll
get a very early one.
Speaker 2: And the new.
Speaker 1: Roaster is very much like it's not even the icing
on the cake, it's the cherry on the icing on
the cake. It's really it's not essential for sustainable abundance.
Speaker 2: Put it that way.
Speaker 1: But I do think there should be very cool technology
in the world that is, let's wave beyond anything that's
ever existed. And I think I'd like those even if
I could never have access to those things, I'd like
to know that they exist and see the future happening.
So I think it will be inspiring to a lot
of people. And just it's extreme.
Speaker 2: It's like.
Speaker 1: The coolest car if it even is a car that
is ever that will probably ever exist. Yeah, Eilon, congrats
on the proposal plan.
Speaker 2: That was amazing. The compensation question.
Speaker 1: Back to Chick, the chips will be the limiting factor
to the future, so on chips and electricity are the
two limiting factors.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we got the.
Speaker 11: Energy and power and energy packs ready to roll. So
I think on the chips. I think you said TSMC, Samsung,
perhaps Intel fourteen A and several different sites are a
couple of US factory sources, which.
Speaker 2: Is we're like everyone every day. Yeah yeah, And.
Speaker 11: So I guess the is there an open door in
the future of investing directly into some of those boundaries.
And second question, how big is a terraff factory? Can
you put that in scale? And oh yeah, yeah, that's
TERROR factory.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: The thing is that we actually have agreed to buy
all the chips that are made from the FAB, so
it's basically a money printing machine for TSMC and Samsung.
It's like literally the fast you make the trips are faster,
we sent them money, but it's still not going at
just fast enough. So that's why I think, as far
as I can see, the only option is to go
boild some very big chip bab and then you've got
to solve memory and packaging too. But otherwise you just
tap out at whatever the chip production rate is. And
so I guess TERROR would be you'd want to say,
it's got to be at least one hundred thousand way
for starts per month size fab and maybe that would
be one of ten in a complex. So will ultimately
be a million wafers starts per month? Yeah, exactly. You
can tell when it gets the giggle factor. That's probably
a good sign that we're onto something special. But I
wouldn't be surprised for long term, it's like a million
wafers a month.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 12: Hi, I'm a long term investor, so I've been holding
the shares for twelve years. I worked at the Autopilot
team development for ten years, and I brought my dad
here from Brazil. We actually won the testlevision contest with
the cyber truck b VideA. I hope you got to
see that at some point. So thanks for the free mode.
The why, and then my question is about obviously market expansion,
but not only South America, Brazil, but also into Mars.
Like with the upcoming rendezvous of Mars and Earth, what's
going to be in a pillow where we're going to send.
Speaker 1: There, Optimist is going to play a big role Optimists,
and I think tells the vehicles will play a big.
Speaker 2: Role on the Moon and Mars.
Speaker 1: So for a Moon base and a Mars city, tells
the vehicles and Optimus robots are natural fit for building
and operating a Moon base and a Mars city.
Speaker 2: So sorry tyber truck. Also yeah, yeah, it's cyber truck.
Speaker 1: You will need to drive around and pressurized vehicle if
there's a person inside. But yeah, it'll be something cool
the next level Moon buggy or my Mars buggy.
Speaker 13: All right, Hi, mister musk GOREV been a fan of
yours since two thousand and six. I think I saw
a piece in a popular science magazine. It was really cool,
and I think I was fifteen at the time. Shareholders.
Since ten years now, it's been really rewarding. It's changed
my life, So thank you very much to you and Tesla.
My question is regarding Tesla's mission for a sustainable future
as it pertains to autonomy. I personally fully expect a
deflationary period after unlocked by autonomy, basically both in moving
humans and goods and whatnot, excluding Optimus even yeah, what
efforts are is Tesla going to focus on to reduce
the dollars per mile rough math? I think like thirty
cents a mile would be really nice. Fifty cents is
pretty good too, looking at inflation later on, and then
I guess the second part of that, how low does
it have to be for people to just stop buying
cars like where it doesn't make economic sense to do that.
I expect that to affect economies of scale and then
further increase the pricing of vehicles they're on out. So like,
how what is that node at which inflection happens.
Speaker 2: In terms of cost per mile?
Speaker 1: We do see a path with a lot of work
to get below twenty cents a mile in current ear dollars,
and I someone agree that there's things will probably be
deflationary as productivity increases. Because you can think of money
supply as being the ratio of goods and services to
what's the growth in goods and services versus the growth in.
Speaker 2: The money supply.
Speaker 1: That ratio is basically inflation, and so if the output
of goods and services grows faster than the money supply,
then you necessarily have deflation or vice versa. They try
to make it sound complicated, but it's not. I'm not
sure that even government overspending can actually I think government
overspending will not be will be lower than the increase
in productivity of goods and services, which would apply to
deflation as you expect.
Speaker 13: Sorry, what about economies of scale? And be impacted. Has
to how you respond as an automotive company when people
stop potentially buying cars.
Speaker 2: Economies, sorry, economies of scale in.
Speaker 13: Like auto manufacturering for instance, it only makes sense if
lots of people buy your vehicles.
Speaker 2: Oh, the total number of vehicles will decrease.
Speaker 1: This sort of vehicle fleet out there is about two
billion of cars, but to two billion if you add
up old corson trucks that are not at a scrap yard.
I think it's around two billion, but that number would
decrease with autonomous vehicles, so the total fleet size would drop.
I actually think miles driven will increase because it's now
much less painful to travel somewhere. So if somebody's thinking
about traveling across the busy city, then they'll take into
account how much pain do I have to deal with
If I have to do it through two hours of traffic,
I probably won't won't do it. But if you're just
say sitting in a cybercab watching a movie or doing
some work, then it's just like sitting in a little lounge,
And so I think you'll see probably a significant increase
in total miles driven. But at the same time, a
decrease in the total active fleet of vehicles.
Speaker 14: I'd just like to reiterate how grateful we all are
to have you on board, ready to lead us to
another seven trillion in market cap at.
Speaker 2: Least at least obviously thank you.
Speaker 14: My question is how much of a concern is it
that when Cybercabs starts production in Q two next year,
that regulation won't be there yet to where you can
deploy cybercabs being produced. Or are you guys confident that
every cybercab you guys make you'll be able to deploy.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think the rate at which we'll we receive regulatory
approval will roughly match the rate of cybercab production. It'll
be maybe a little tight, but that's it's about right.
And i'd like to thank Way more for paving the
path here. It's very helpful. Yeah, but I think we'll
be able to deploy all the cyberclbs that we produce.
Speaker 2: And the other thing is, once it becomes like extremely
normal in cities, it's.
Speaker 1: Just going to become like the regulators will have just
fewer and fewer reasons to say no.
Speaker 2: And then you've got this, You've got the.
Speaker 1: Accident statistics at scale, and you can show that what
autonomous miles save lives then, and you've got unequivocal billions
of miles to prove it, then I think it's hard
for regulators to say no. Yeah, true. All right.
Speaker 15: First of all, Leland, thank you so much for everything
you do for the Tesla shareholders. Do you see a
path for optimists to have consciousness downloaded to it?
Speaker 1: You mean human consciousness or yeah, it's not immediate, but
if you say it down the road, would you be
able to say, with a neural link, have a snapshot
of what is an approximate snapshot of somebody's mind and
then upload that approximate snapshot to optimus body. I think
that at some point that technology becomes possible, and it's
probably less than twenty years. Yeah, but of course you
won't quite be the same, be a little different because
you'll be in a robot body and the mental snapshot
will not be precise. It'll be a probably pretty close,
but not exactly the same. On the other hand, are
you the same person that you were five years ago? Nope,
A lot of things have changed. Yeah, but I guess
at some point, if you want to be uploaded to
a robot body. My guess is that becomes possible.
Speaker 16: Yeah, hi, elon space based data center is a great idea,
and I agree with that.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 16: I was curious on your views on space based solar power,
the idea of beaming down microwave energy down to Earth
so that you can just point it to where it
needs to go without transmission, without distribution lines, and it's
more energy dense, so you know, less band use. Just
curious on your views.
Speaker 1: Space solar power until the advent of something like Starship,
where the cost per ton to orbit drops by orders
of magnitude. The cost of getting Pale to orbit is
so high that there was no possibility of space solar
power solving anything.
Speaker 2: Really.
Speaker 1: Now with Starship, like I see a path to Starship
cost per ton to orbit being.
Speaker 2: Lower than air flight.
Speaker 1: If you were to fly to a long distance airflight
with cargirls, they took seven forty seven from here to Sydney,
Australia or something like that.
Speaker 2: I think I think ultimately Starship.
Speaker 1: Will be able to do that trip for less cost
per ton than an aircraft. So then you so now
that now you've got that opens up a what very
wide range of possibilities, like the most obvious one I
think is actually solar powered AI satellites, So to move
the AI to orbit and essentially deep space over time,
because the you can actually access over a billion times
more energy from the Sun in deep space than you
can on Earth. The scaling to scale to crterships any
to make any progress on a crdoship two scale, which
is using some non trivial amount of energy from the Sun.
Speaker 2: You have to do space solar power.
Speaker 1: Now you could only beam a tiny amount of that
back to Earth or you would melt Earth.
Speaker 2: So Earth actually receives a very.
Speaker 1: Tiny amount of the Sun's energy, where Earth is a tiny.
Speaker 2: Dust mote you see, like Earth to.
Speaker 1: Scale with the Sun, we look like a little crumb.
Speaker 2: So the to scale civilization.
Speaker 1: Like said to be at all relevant on a cordship
of two scale, like to even use a millionth of
a percent of the Sun's energy, you really have to
be have your soul power in deep space and you
could be in some of that back to Earth too,
but you can only be a tiny bit of it
back or you'd melt Earth.
Speaker 17: And this will be our last question.
Speaker 2: Well do okay, we'll do a few more we'll do
a few more. Sorry, I'm sorry, all right, Elan. Look
around you.
Speaker 18: This is a very small sample of Tesla soldiers. Maybe
actually I should say, elin Musk soldiers.
Speaker 1: Thank you for your sport. So thank you everyone. I'd
like to say thank you from the bottom of my
heart for your support.
Speaker 2: Thank you, and thank you every one out there.
Speaker 18: So I know for sure a lot of them sold
the farm to buy Tesla, and they stuck with Tesla
through thick and thin, good days and bad days.
Speaker 2: Yes, So my.
Speaker 18: Question to you is, how do you feel about the thing,
the success, but in a safer way where you get
qualified Tesla retail investor only to invest in SpaceX, avoiding
all these market manipulators, those crooks, and these short sellers.
Speaker 1: It is a tough problem that you highlight the basically
the unfortunately, over time, the parasitic load of being a
public company has just grown over time, and so you
get all these spurious lawsuits, obviously, and they just make
it very difficult to operate effectively as a public company.
But I do want to try to figure out some
way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX.
Speaker 19: That would be very cool.
Speaker 1: I've been giving a lot of thought to how to
give people access to SpaceX stock, because I do want
supporters to have SpaceX stock. But there's a sort of
twenty five hundred shareholder threshold for before you become impacted.
Speaker 2: A public company.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, maybe at some point tells it,
maybe made some point SpaceX should become a public company
despite all the downsides of being public.
Speaker 20: All right, Okay, first of all, thank you very much, Elon.
Just an amazing job you're doing, not only for Tesla
shareholders but humanity in general. So we got a couple
of questions. Many of us are asking, like, we want
to know. Many of us think you are one of
the most consequential business people honor of ever and we
want to understand how do you think, For example, like
a couple of one, how did you know in the
master plant part two, this is like twenty eighteen or
something like that, you calculated that point it takes six
billion miles of FSD miles driven before maybe the world
the regatory would prove it. And then the second is
like when you were deciding if Tessa's going to have
the hardware chips AI chips, did you know at that
time that at some point when you get to AA five,
it's going to be used not only for cars but
for bots and for AI data centers.
Speaker 2: Was that luck a little bit or was it.
Speaker 21: Like you that was going to happen?
Speaker 1: I generally, I mean in terms of the estimates, like
the for the self driving stuff, I generally try to
get things to within an order of magnitude. So if so,
it seemed to me like probably and this was technically
in kilometers, but would be more closer to ten billion kilometers,
which is roughly six billion miles. Then it would be
to one billion, but I think I thought it would
not take one hundred billion kilometers.
Speaker 2: So it's really just.
Speaker 1: Trying to when you're trying to guess something where there's
a lot of uncertainty, just try to get it get
the estimate to the nearest order mangitude closest factor of ten.
And that's why I said probably around ten billion kilometers
or six billion miles. And then yeah, the chip the
reason Tesla created a chip team, And it's important though,
like the vast majority of Tesla is like a dozen
startups in one and the only we've only really done
one major acquisition, which is solar City and then had
some very small ones. So all of us is almost
all of this is organic. I built the CHIP team
from scratch and the AI team from scratch. The it
was just because it became a limiting factor. Hardware too,
we used in video, but in video was at that
time focused on making really AI server hardware, which obviously
was a smart bet. Though the most val currently the
most valuable company in the world, and Jensen Long his
team have done an incredible job at in video.
Speaker 2: My headsaft to them.
Speaker 1: I'm a huge admirer of Jensen and in video done
amazing work, but they were they didn't want to do
a cut a low cost, power efficient car computer at
the time AI car computer. So it's like, okay, I
guess we need to start a chip team to solve that.
So then that's when I hired Jim Keller and we
built the chip team and did AI three, then AI four,
and then we to be honest, we made a few
we made some mistakes there with AI five, but now
AI five is back on track and we'll have a
very rapid cadence to AI six and so forth, and
this will really this is really necessary for for the
car to like like With AI four, I think we
can get to two or three hundred percent better than
human safety, maybe four hundred percent better. But with AI five,
I think we can do one thousand percent better or
maybe even better than that, and then human safety at
a certain point. Actually, it might be too much intelligence
for a car because like I was thinking, like, what
if you get stuck in a car and you have
too much intelligence? But then one of the things we
could do is when the car is idle, is use
the car as a massive distributed AI infrince fleet with
the content of customers. We're like, do you want your
car to earn money for you while it's sitting in your.
Speaker 2: Garage of night. I don't know.
Speaker 1: We'll pay one hundred dollars a month or two hundred
dollars a month or whatever the right number is if
you allow Tesla to do AI inference workloads when you're
not using your car. So that will also helped the
AI in the car not get bored, because I imagine
what if I got stuck in a car and then well,
and the highlight of your day was driving. But they
don't always want to drive, so then what do you
do with the rest of the time. So I think
Tesla could actually end up having the largest might end
up having the most amount of AI inference compute.
Speaker 2: In the world. Like I think, like maybe if we.
Speaker 1: Had one hundred million car fleet, and at some point
we may have more than a hundred million call fleet,
and they'll have AI six AI seven, And if you're
able to run a kilowatt of inference on one hundred
million car fleet, now you've got a one hundred gigawatts
of distributed inference with built in cooling and power electronics
and distributed power. Probably the market's valuing that at zero
point zero right now, so I guess, but it seems
like an obvious thing to do if you've got distributed
inference AI and you've got the power and the cooling,
which is very difficult to do the power in the cooling,
and one hundred gigawatts is a lot the average I said.
The average power consumption in the US I think is
around four hundred and sixty gigawats within that's the entire
electric consumption of the US. So the if you do
it one hundred gigawatts, that'd be a pretty big number.
But yeah, it's basically something as a limiting factor and
then we take actions to address the limiting factor.
Speaker 20: A quick follow up, Thank you for that very much.
A request for you. So you guys just unveiled the
cyber bear.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we'd like to. It's beautiful.
Speaker 20: We'd want you, guys or maybe do a cyber bull
here in Giga Texas. My name is Herbert. I've got
a brighter with Herbert channel on YouTube. And this is
the Cyber Bulls. We are representing the Tesla Bulls and
we stand with you, elon, but would it be cool
to have a cyber bull right here in Texas?
Speaker 1: Like a cyber longhorn.
Speaker 20: Cyber longhorn.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll do a cyber longhorn for the factory.
Speaker 2: All right, good afternoon.
Speaker 22: I'm I'm very excited to ask this question. I've dreamed
of giving away a Tesla for a very long time,
and I finally wore Evy Jack down enough that they're
willing to flip the bill for it. But it turns
out to give away a Tesla, I have to have
your permission to say we're giving way a Tesla, so.
Speaker 2: Just get away.
Speaker 22: You don't have to do anything Tesla does that. We're
going to go through the normal channels. We'll buy it
from a store that stuff if you.
Speaker 2: Can get totally cool. Yeah, yeah, that's certainly. You don't
need my mission to give away a car.
Speaker 1: We'll take like maybe a couple more questions and call
it a night.
Speaker 5: All right, Hilana, my name is Jonathan. You mentioned that
the Roadster will have more tech than all the James
Bond vehicles combined. Do you think this possible will be
that any of that tech will make it into the
current vehicle lineup? No, And to follow up on that,
do you have any estimate of production or delivery timelines
for the Roadster.
Speaker 1: So we're aiming for the product unveiled and will be
of the Roster to which will be very different from
what we're shown previously. That demo event will be April
first of next year. I have some deniably because like
I could say, I was just kidding, but we are
actually tentatively aiming for April first for what I think
will be the most exciting whether it works or not,
demo ever of any product. And then I guess production
is probably about twelve to eighteen months after that, So
I think production is probably a year or so after that. Oh,
I can't give away the secrets, but you won't be disappointed.
All right, take one last question? Hey, all right, three
last questions?
Speaker 2: Okay, hi Elan.
Speaker 23: I'm really excited about this a future of sustainable abundance
that we're talking about. You're going to be saving a
lot of lives with FSD, but the number of lives
that would be saved and improved with this future vision
you have is really inspiring and very exciting. So even today,
you've mentioned though that in a post scarcity world, the
role of money could diminish or become obsolete, given that
much of today's power, including yours, is tied to wealth.
Do you think achieving this abundance would require powerful people
to relinquish their power? And how might we address resistance
from those who hold power to make this vision a reality?
Speaker 1: I think actually, long term, the AI is going to
be in charge, to be totally frank, not humans. If
artificial intelligence vastly exceeds the summer human intelligence, it is
difficult to mentionine that any humans will actually.
Speaker 2: Be in charge. So we just need to make sure
that as friendly. Yep, thank you? Is that the question
go ahead? Sure? Yes?
Speaker 18: Okay?
Speaker 24: Sorry, el okay, okay, yeah, I'm cybercat on X and
I'm doing YouTube and the content creator. There's one thing
I always heard about Tesla owners or people who want
to buy Tesla complain about that is about super expensive insurance,
right and the thing is Tesla I know Tesla also
do insurance. However, it's not a cover every place. Based
on Boston, I don't have too much options. It's super expensive.
And the other point is the FSD is very safe
right now. I've been using FSD for about four years.
Right it's getting to a point it's like almost unsupervised. However,
the insurance still does not take this into consideration. They
don't ask you whether you have FFD or not, and
they don't know how much you travel with FSD, and
that is not a part of the risk prediction kind
of thing. So I feel like, what's your thought about
the insurance going forward, especially when we're getting close to
the autonomy. What is PAS like either using your own
with the external partnership, for example, there's a company called Lemonade.
Speaker 1: We need to not have the questions be super long.
The Teslin insurance is trying to expand as as quickly
as possible, but the regulatory structure for insurance is extremely
complex and works on a state by state basis, so
it's really somewhat of a racket, and the rules for
insurance are different with every state.
Speaker 2: It's a very complicated thing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so there's but I'm aware that insurance often is
too expensive and doesn't take the right things into account.
But so all I can say to that is, yeah,
we'll keep expanding teslent insurance. When the car is operating
as a cybercap Tesla will simply self insure, so that
kind of solves that. But insurance is a yeah, a real.
Speaker 2: Pain in the neck for sure.
Speaker 1: But Okay, I do need to end this at some point.
I'll take Yeah, one question, one question there.
Speaker 21: All right, thanks thelan for taking my question.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it.
Speaker 21: My question has to do with compute and what the
build out or how much is necessary to train optimists
and actually get them to a very household meaningful robot
that can do things, and if the partnership with x
A with XAI would help accelerate that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's there's a lot of training compute needed for Optimus,
and because the AI tip in the robot is relatively weak,
because it's really living in our power.
Speaker 2: You can make up with that with a lot.
Speaker 1: Of training to have a lot of training result in
a very efficient AI that can run on a low
power chip in the robot. So it is we will
actually have to spend a lot of money on training.
Ultimately it'll be like tens of billions of dollars on
training compute, so it's a big number.
Speaker 21: What a partnership with Xai help accelerate that?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think potentially, Yeah, I think that that could. Yeah,
there's potential for accelerating that.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Did the Xai investment think get approved?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: Yes? Okay, okay, okay, okay, whatever. What it like?
Speaker 1: It's Teesla and some other company that I have been
interested in, and it's like always quite complicated to do
things has to go through a lot of hoops to happen.
But I do think there's a lot of potential collaboration
with Xai in the future and with space x A.
Speaker 20: Right, okay, this is the last one.
Speaker 17: Yeah, sorry, Thank you so much, Captain elion x. I
support you. Thanks so much for everything you do. Very
simple question. I'm from Israel. I don't represent a lot
of people, but people do ask me and I'm going
to ask you, I need a chance to have the
app in other languages, like Hebrew for example. Some people
struggle with me. I mean even the app is the
app itself, Yeah, just the app.
Speaker 1: The app is not a Hebrew Oh and a lot
of people don't speak English. Oh okay, shoot, I feel
we had it in all languages. Okay, definitely the app
needs to be in all languages, all right, all right,