Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It is Thursday. It is
time for full court press. We hit our parlay yesterday
A two teamer Rob put ourselves back in the plus.
I had Ucla. You had the over at NC State.
I think this is the second time this year, Rob
where your best player got scratched and the team scored
like one hundred and twenty points or something like that.
Speaker 2: You had Texas Tech.
Speaker 1: Earlier this year where they like didn't start three guys
and still just effortlessly put up triple digits. So shout
out to us for that. Wish I added Ucla to
my client card, kicking myself for that. But it's a
new day and there's new games to talk about before
we get into it. As people file in, how'd your night, Gow,
how's the week going so far for you?
Speaker 3: Now you know, the college basketball has been terrific client wise,
Adam nine to two last eleven. It gets sixty seven percent,
sixteen and eight since the start of the month, so
it's been good here in December. Interesting that Will Wade
and I did post this on X his press conference
after the game last night after they scored one hundred
and eight, just saying we'll Wade things his team has
no toughness. He's got two players who actually care. Not
happy with the overall attitude or let's just say, you know,
a mild mannered attitude of his team. He wants tougher guys.
We'll see if this affects them in ACC play at him,
because when you play ACC, everybody's going to come out
with a toughness attitude. And if Nancy State doesn't have
the players to counter that, we're going to see if
he can develop this team or not. But he was
none too pleased after last night's win. I was, but
he wasn't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he has a right to be concerned
about the effort on the defensive end. You know, sometimes
I wonder if this is like going to be a
new school tactic here where, you know, because because back
in the day, you didn't like coaches didn't really come
out and bury their players, bury their team like it
was very rare. It was always like I've got to
do better, you know. But more often than not it
was coach takes the ownership to flex away from the players.
And I see, you know, we talked about it yesterday.
The Mick Cronin just goes out and it's like, we
have no heart, we're not tough, we suck at basketball.
Comes out wins by thirteen?
Speaker 2: Did it? Last year?
Speaker 1: Got UCLA sort of out of that rut and then
they started winning games. So you gotta wonder too, like
a guy like Will Wade, who seems to be like
pretty much respected across the game, Cronin does too. I'm
sure listen, you know how it's like some things you hear.
I with my Long Island, New York City based friends,
I hear this all the time. It's like they can
say something and if I tried to say the same thing,
it would like it wouldn't fly.
Speaker 2: Do you think that's kind of like that in coaching
a little bit?
Speaker 3: It could very well be. I like what you were
saying earlier about these coaches that have no issue with
throwing players under the bus. Tad Boyle is another one
at Colorado who has zero problem two three times a
year ripping his Colorado team. Like you say, we talked
about Cronin yesterday, seems to be a little bit of
a thing this instance. You know, I just think it's
Will Wade being Will Wade. It's who he is. He
has this desire, adam a burning desire to be on
top of the coaching world, and so NC State is
his opportunity here at least. You know, they did make
a Final four a couple of years ago, so who
knows you.
Speaker 2: Could do that.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't know. It's just some coaches. Every
coach is different, but those three in particular have no problem.
And here's a comment about Penny from Keith.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Yeah, I just wanted to point this out.
I think it's a great comment.
Speaker 1: It's a good discussion to get into as we we
people file in and we'll get to the games.
Speaker 2: Plenty of games to talk about today.
Speaker 1: But you know, yesterday I was talking about Penny upping
him in my book in terms of coaching because I
used to not really care for him as a head
coach from like an ex's and O standpoint, but like
talked about how respected he is, how he always has
his team ready to play.
Speaker 2: And the last night they.
Speaker 1: Go out in what was a bad matchup for them
and take Vandy to overtime. They end up covering. It
should have never been that tough for them to cover
seven and a half. But Bayu says Penny said he
started docking Bradshaw nil fi finds for being late, etc.
Before he started showing effort recently. I like the tactic
if players are getting paid, they should be able to
pay fines. Yeah, And it just goes back to like
how respected Penny is in that community, not even just
the college, right, that meant this community in general. Whereas
like I almost feel like I have to start handicapping
coaches more more than their like coaching acive in at
this point, because that's the game we're playing now with
Ni read off last night looking like a joke in
the press conference, stuff like that, where you got to
be like, you know, upgrade, down grade, and it's very
actionable because you know, it is the identity of the team. Yeah,
I mean, just like again, we could we could go
on all day, but I thought it was an interesting point.
And you know, great effort by Memphis last night. That
was one I thought they were gonna get blown out
and they took that game to overtime. All right, feature
gay oh jar head. I'll answer this question. Why is
the video vertically stacked for some shows? I can't see
any comments. You gotta go find the other link. So
wager talk is putting a vertical show out which probably
formats better to your phone. And the show is also
up in the in the traditional format on YouTube.
Speaker 2: It's two separate links.
Speaker 1: I believe if you're watching on Twitter or one of
the other platforms, it is going to be the horizontal format,
so that is you know that. That's why you're seeing
it like that. We are producing two formats now, so
you must be watching the vertical format. Go to the
wager Talk YouTube page. You should be able to find
the horizontal one as well. Rob I talked to you
before the show. No real feature game today. It's sort
of a mid finals week slate. A lot of mid majors,
the only real Power Conference schools are playing by games.
So I decided that the feature game was going to
be the one of the only nationally televised games today.
And we're going to go to the Chris Paul HBCU
Classic down in College Park, Georgia, where the Atlanta Dream
play and this is a five pm Eastern game. And
I decided to make this game a feature because well,
as Rothstein likes to say, standalone game, right, it's a
it's a standalone it's national TV. And I also have
an opinion here, and I'm actually gonna end up being
on the wrong. Something I've talked about is I've beaten
a lot of line moves, and right now it looks
to be it looks to be on the wrong side
of the line move, which again, as we've talked about,
also hasn't meant much this year. I feel like I
continue to beat numbers and it continues to not matter.
I took seven with Jackson State in this one. It's
up to eight and a half now. Something we have
also covered on this show repeatedly is that may come
back down throughout the day. This actually opened like six,
so I thought I was buying back at the fake already,
but it looks like this has been sort of bet
up to eight and a half some places.
Speaker 2: This is a.
Speaker 1: Neutral court game, College Park, Georgia. This is an HBCU MTE,
So you're gonna see these two teams play today and
then you're gonna see them play a different opponent tomorrow.
I expect this to be a well attended event. You've
got Division two schools are going to play earlier in
the day, so it's basically games all day and then
and then the Division one games are the national TV
ones on ESPNU at five and seven. I guess the
reason I wanted to play against Hampton, Well, I guess
I wanted to play Jackson State here.
Speaker 2: I'll start with the Jackson State side.
Speaker 1: Now, they're one in nine, but the majority of their
games have been by games right like where they're just
not going to compete with the likes of Louisville in Illinois,
a Houston, a Northwestern, those are just teams that they're
not gonna hang around with.
Speaker 2: And I think they're getting.
Speaker 1: A little too penalized here rob for the fact that
they have been blasted in these games. So it's like
they've lost some of these games by forty or fifty points,
and I think the books and the masses will look
at that and say, well, you should have you should
have been closer. And I look at that and say,
does it really matter that that they only lost? Like
would it have been better that they only lost by
twenty five as opposed to forty to Illinois? To me,
probably it doesn't really mean much. The games that mean
something in my opinion for Jackson State are the handful
of games they've played against a sort of somewhat like competition.
But I'm gonna throw out the Winthrop game because Deshaun
Ruffin did not play against Winthrop, and not only he's
one of the best players in the SWACK.
Speaker 2: Of course, Ruffin comes from Ole Miss.
Speaker 1: There was a point in time rob where I think
he was a pretty highly touted, you know, freshman at
ole Miss transfers to Jackson State. He's probably one of
the top five players in this league. He's certainly the
best player on Jackson State's roster. He didn't play against Winthrop,
So I'll throw that game out. So I'm looking at
the Louisiana game, the Kennesaw State game, and the Louisiana
Tech game. They win against Louisiana on the road as
an underdog, right in the same sort of you know,
I think there were a six point dog in that game.
The other two losing to Kennesaw, losing the Louisiana Tech.
Those are two very good teams in their own respect,
also in bigger conferences. So I looked at Jackson State.
I said, man, this is a team I thought might
win the SWACK this year. Like they're in that upper
echelon of SWACK teams. They're one to nine this is
a neutral court. It's not at Hampton. It's neutral court
in Atlanta. To me, like, I like what Ivon Thomas
has done at Hampton, but I don't know that I
can make them seven points better on a neutral So
talk to me a little bit about the Hampton side.
I know you kind of like maybe lean that way.
I'm surprised that this is up to eight eight and
a half now. I just don't understand that move.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the degree of difficulty Adam when trying to actually
place where a Swack team is at at this point
in time. Because we've harped on this a lot, it
came into play again last night in my analysis yesterday
morning of the Texas Southern NC State matchup. Right, they
just go out and they play these ridiculously hard schedules.
You can't take a single thing statistically analytically that's attached
to Jackson State right now and get a gauge on
what kind of team they are. Their stats are so
skewed by the beatings that they take that you really
don't even know who they are. It's usually why I
would wait till Swack season to play on any Swack side.
Last night, I chose to go with a team total
against the swack team because they just give up a
lot of points to Power five schools. But this is
not that situation. So at face value, Hampton has played
far more teams in this weight class Dan has Jackson
State doesn't mean much. I'm not sure they generally. I'm
gonna speak from a team total perspective right now, seventy
two and a half is the number attached to Hampton.
They generally in this weight class have been able to
exceed that number. They didn't against Holy Cross and they
didn't against Norfolk State. The Norfolk State one catches my
eye a little bit simply because you get that type
of rivalry atmosphere in games between HBCUs and maybe we
get that here. But on the other hand, Moe Williams
has always been an uptempo coach, was an uptempo player.
He's an up tempo coach Jackson State. Again, you can't
take a lot of what their statistics say to heart here,
but they are giving up very very short average possession
length times second fastest in the nation. Every team that
they played that blew them out was not a fast
paced team. I think Campton might pick up the pace
a little bit here. Whether or not they can cover
seven and a half is another question. But getting to
seventy three in this game, I think you'll see a
much better effort out of Jackson State here, because again
we say it all the time, but they're in that
range where they can be far more competitive. And I
think Campton, just at this point in time, might have
a little better personnel and better results. So if I
were to look, I would look at Hampton's team total
getting over, Adam. But all that being said, it's a
huge opportunity for Jackson State to finally score some points.
This isn't the Houston Cougar defense. They're going to be
facing some sixty five and a half on their end
could get over as well. I won't play, but I
would leave the audience with potential full game total over.
It's been bet up from one thirty six to one
thirty nine. Seems like money likes that line of thinking
or the Hampton team total. And you know what, as
we talk about this game here, Adam, I see eight
and a half's almost universe. You know, it just keeps flying.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again I I you know, I've prided myself
on on at the very least. Even though I haven't
had a great start to college basketball season, I've gotten
the best number or a really good number, probably nineteen
times out of twenty. I can't this hasn't happened to
me very often this season where I've just gotten one
shoved in my face. Like I'm getting right here with
Jackson State. With that being set, this is just if
this is just some group decided that they were going
to head to the extra board in bet Hampton, because
that's that ultimately will move some of these extra board games, right,
Like if it was a main board game, I'd be
far more concerned about an injury. But like when it's
an extra board game, if if a group decides to
all bet at once, they will move a game multiple
points on the extra board. I would have absolutely no
problem taking the eight and a half with as much
confidence as I did when I punched in plus seven
for clients for three percent earlier today. The only thing,
the only thing that would put me off of Jackson
State would be if Deshaun Ruffin for some reason didn't play.
I think that's very unlikely here for a couple of reasons. One,
He's they like this is like a huge game for them.
It's national TV, it's a it's this whole event, right,
this this HBCU College Chris Paul HBCU Classic, Like unless
he's like randomly hurt, like he's not just gonna miss
this game. So again, I think this is probably a
group took a position when limits went up. I will
happily punch back against that, and I'm gonna use I'm
gonna use whatever the number is on this show by
the time we're done as my parlay leg so we'll
just call it eight and a half with Jackson State.
Ruffin is this team offensively so like, I don't even
care who else is on the floor with him. He
is the ident He is the offensive like sort of
identity of this team. And the last couple games so
ever since I think he may have either I think
he was like maybe disciplinary suspended. I have to like
double check that, but he missed the Winthrop game and
then he didn't really play much against Arkansas. Since then,
he's been on a mission. Twenty points against Northwestern last
time out, he had twenty eight against Kennesaw. He had
eighteen in the win over Louisiana, and like having a
back like Houston's gonna take your best player out, even
if you're Duke right, like, Houston will wipe out your
best player. It doesn't matter who you are. So the
fact that he didn't do much against Houston's irrelevant to me.
This is gonna be a great atmosphere. I think this
is gonna be a great game even if Jackson State
doesn't win, which we don't care. We just want him
to keep it close. I'm not sure Hampton's got the
juice to just run them out of the gym. It's
a better Hampton team with a Von Thomas than it
was prior to him showing up there, but still, like,
I don't know that they're is an eight point favorite
on a neutral over Jackson State. So I like the
dog and that will be my parlay leg for the show.
I'm going to take eight and a half.
Speaker 2: Looks like, yeah, eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Is pretty much across the board now, so we'll take
Jackson State plus eight and a half. I played it
for clients for three percent at seven, so it's a
rare time where I'm actually giving out a better number
on the show. All right, Wow, that was a hot
start here. I didn't know we were going to go
that in detail with Jackson State Hampton. But great way
to start the show. I'm going to head to the
comments and let's go to Jose. I like this one.
Speaker 2: This is an interesting team.
Speaker 1: Interesting like some line movement here, and he says William
and Mary for me, especially at home, where, of course
our colleague Steve Merrill will probably be in attendance. He
goes to a lot of these William and Mary home games.
That's his school. I think he has great seats. He's
told me to come down before. I haven't made it
down there for a game that I will at some point.
You want to talk about coaches. Rob Brian Earle was
up here at Cornell all those years. He's now down there.
My gut says he's going to overachieve every year because
that's just the kind of coach he is. And I
feel like you're seeing that with William and Mary. Are
you laying eight against Radford with the Tribe tonight?
Speaker 3: I don't know if I would lay eight, but I
would certainly, and obviously the money is the same way
they were attracted to that opening total of one sixty five.
It's now one seventy two and a half. You're going
to get two of the faster tempo teams in the country.
Obviously Brian Earl's team, Well, William and Mary has had
this identity for a few years now of up and down,
high scoring affairs. You combine them with a team that
does the same and you're likely to get it somewhere
near this number. William and Mary not really interested in
a whole lot of defense, but certainly interested and capable
on the offensive end, and now Radford taking on that
same type of identity themselves. So I think it's going
to be up and down, Adam. I really want to
look at the William and Mary side, their team total
here up and over. Haven't really played it yet, but
it's something that interests me quite a bit. You're going
to get the huge number of possessions that I always
talk about William and Mary, for what it's worth, the
fastest offensive tempo team in the nation. They get shot
so up extremely quickly every thirteen and a half seconds.
According to Ken Palm, the other side gets one off
every fifteen and a half second, So fifteen point three,
excuse me, thirteen and fifteen you got greyhound basketball here,
you get free throws in those instances. If I could
just go through a couple of Radford finals here, real quick,
Betford has been either on the good side or on
the bad side of eighty plus every single game this year,
So they can score it, they can allow it. My
trust in this game would be on the William and
Mary side, certainly way more tested. They've played a little
bit better competition here and their offense. It just the
possession numbers in their game. I'm just going through, real quick,
seventy eight, seventy six, seventy four, seventy nine, seventy seven,
seventy eight. Everything here adds up to some form of
over for me, and maybe at the conclusion of the show,
I'll look this way. But for me, William and Mary
team total over here, and I think you have to
get to ninety one to win that bet. I think
that's probably a fairly safe way to go. In this case.
It is ninety and a half at this point, so
we'll see. It's like I say that total regular full
game total has really flown up seven a half points.
Speaker 2: Amazingly.
Speaker 1: We are in in Brian Earl's second season and it's
like they still haven't fully adjusted to him being the
coach there. From a totals perspective, if you go back
to last year, like every William and Mary total was
was slammed over like all season right because the previous
regime did not play even remotely that fast. It literally
took like a full season for them to adjust it.
It almost feels like it's happening again this year where
they came into the year and their totals were a
little bit lower than they should have been, and this
is this one is no exception up from I think
one sixty five to one seventy two and a half.
Keith makes a great point in the chat. William and
Mary's only played three home games so far this year.
It is a game that might have some juice. Radford
is probably I think I've said this on air here
that Radford, if there was going to be a team
that maybe pushes high point in the Big South, I
thought it could be rad this year. Now Radfords come in,
you know, they play a lot of games that they're
gonna play superior competition, so they're another one five and
seven might be a little bit misleading.
Speaker 2: They had a.
Speaker 1: Believe they knocked off someone or maybe they played they
I think they played someone pretty tight. That was that
was Yeah, played UNC to fifteen points that SMU game.
I bet them in that game that was much closer
than the final score suggests.
Speaker 2: There.
Speaker 1: They were right in it with SMU for a lot
of the game. Ended up losing by seventeen last two
times out against these You know the scenario where they're
actually the superior team against Saint Francis and copp and
State eighty nine points and one oh seven.
Speaker 2: So Radford can put the ball in the hoop too.
Speaker 1: I don't hate an overlook there, but after the move,
maybe you do go the team total route and focus
on William and Mary because they're gonna probably score it.
Speaker 2: Will here.
Speaker 1: All right, okay, Doug, I'll talk about what's going on
in this game. So Doug says, what's going on with
Furman minus ten and a half at Manhattan? I get
that Manhattan is bottom tier, but my numbers only project
Furman minus four. So there's a couple of things I
think that you have to acknowledge with the number in
Furman Manhattan. The first thing is I've noticed that a
lot of projections on Manhattan have been off this year,
and the reason for that is will Signore has yet
to play a game. So I know through some of
my Mac sources that Sidinor was essentially academically ineligible for
the first semester. That's why he hasn't stepped foot on
the floor yet this year. I don't know if they've
come out and officially said that, but that is why
he is not step foot in the court yet this year.
Speaker 2: He's been academically ineligible.
Speaker 1: Now that's a problem for Manhattan rob because that is
not only Manhattan's best player. He will be in the
mix for Mac Player of the Year if he plays
the whole Mac season, or if he gets back and
gets in with eligibility in the second semester. Now December eighteenth,
my math says, this is still the first semester.
Speaker 2: I don't think you can.
Speaker 1: We don't hear about this as much as we used
to because it's like, I don't know, I feel like
academic ineligibility used to be a thing, and it was
like you knew that they weren't coming back until early January,
like there was no way to get out of it.
You have to get the final grades in and then
make sure your grades are up to be reinstated.
Speaker 2: To the team, so A, you're not going to see
him here. B.
Speaker 1: I think it's the reason that the metrics are so
off on Manhattan. On the other side, Rob Furman, I
think a lot of people had Furman as like a
runaway in their league to win their league this year,
and they came out looking so bad that the number
was all out of whack on Furman too. And that's
starting to fix itself because Furman has now won six
of their last seven games. They blew out Elon, they
blew out Harvard, they beat Richmond, they crushed Queens. They're
starting to look like the team that I think most
people had at the top of the SoCon this year.
So that's I'm just trying to make sense of your
question about the number. I think that's why the numbers
out of whack on this game for you, because there's
like a lot of moving parts with both of these
teams from a handicapping perspective. Because of that, I don't
really have much interest in getting involved in this game.
I don't really want any part of Manhattan until they
get Sidne their back because I haven't been overly impressed
with them without him. So that's my take there Rob,
do you have anything more actionable than I have on
this firm in Manhattan game, I will.
Speaker 3: Just say Adam that the three games that you just
rattled off where Furman blew out, blew out, and blew out,
those victories were by nine to ten and eleven, so
they're double digit victories. But then we put it up
against ten and a half point number here against Manhattan,
and honestly, Furman, maybe a little bit the runaway train
may have gone too far at this point in time.
I would prefer to look at an under here for
the one specific reason that and will sign or who
you've brought up quite a bit is probably the main
reason why. But Manhattan hasn't really reached any offensive goals here,
you know what I mean. They're not a very good
We talked about them in the Fairfield game. As a
matter of fact, I think I took Fairfield that night
plus two and a half, and Manhattan did win that
game by four at home, but low scoring game. Most
of the stuff they've played, they don't show the capability
to get to you know, they're going to need to
get to seventy five here. Probably you need an eighty
five seventy five game erors in that vicinity eighty seventy five.
I'm just not so sure they get there. So I
think that angle is correct here one fifty six and
a half bit down to one fifty four and a half.
I think that's correct as far as side is concerned,
I would start maybe looking at Manhattan here. Kind of
we talk about weird road trips too, and this is
kind of I know Furman plays in small gyms, but
this is kind of a strange one in Manhattan for
anybody who hasn't been there before. I don't know that
Manhattan or excuse me that Furman's been to Manhattan before
without looking up the.
Speaker 1: Results, have you been a draggy gym before, Rob, It's
been there forever forever.
Speaker 3: Is the city are tough?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it has been there forever. I think they still
have the track around at the indoor track. Very cool
building in I can't remember what part of the city
it's in. I think they're in like Riverdale, maybe like
closer to the Bronx. But yeah, that is a very cool,
little like old gym that's been there for a long time.
And that is a weird trip for Furman to have
to go out there. One other thing I'll say about Manhattan,
Like the problem for them is they have no depth.
They didn't have any depth last year, Like they really
only want to play seven guys. But when when you
play seven guys and one of your guys is a
potential Conference Player of the year and then you no
longer have him, it's tough, right, And that's that's what
you're seeing with this team. They have, you know, guys
Jaden Winston, Devin Dinkins. The guys that start the game
for Manhattan are very very good, but the problem is
five through seven. Normally it's like six through six through
ten are not very good and you have to put
him in places. But now that you don't, you haven't
had sidn or one of those guys has had to start.
And there is a big, big, big drop off for
Manhattan after they're starting five, huge drop off. So it
makes it tough like that. That's why a couple things won.
They're not able to you know Furman. Their big issue
earlier in the year was they were turning the ball
over left and right. I think they've cleaned up some
of that. They have a tremendous coach, Bob Ritchie's gonna
figure that out. Is one of the better coaches in
that league. So I think you've got a couple of
things here where Manhattan's really sign or it's thrown off
everything they've wanted to do. Furman got off to this
horrific start and now they're starting to round in the
form a little bit. But I'm with you, Rob, I
think at this number, I think it's moved a little
too much. I could only look Manhattan here because they
still have some talent. They can still put the ball
in the hoop and at home, if they're into it,
Furman will turn it over.
Speaker 2: Maybe that keep chewing the game if you're the Jaspers.
Speaker 3: And a couple things just to tie it up here, Adam,
real quick twenty twenty. Hindsight is always the answer to
this question. Furman's had nine days off, and I know
maybe you practice a little bit, but as you mentioned,
it's been finals week for a lot of these universities,
so nine days off, the question of rest versus rust
always comes into play, and Furman hasn't necessarily. You know,
they win three straight games, one against Bob Jones, which
we won't consider. But you do beat Elon, you do
beat Harvard by decent sized margins, and then you take
nine days off. It's almost as if they were getting
some kind of flow going. Now it's broken up up.
Now it's a weird road trip. These situationals or external
angles may play a part in this game here tonight.
And while Furman has turned it over a bunch, and
I think we could take these numbers to Hart because
Furman has played a lot of teams inside this Manhattan
weight class that word we use, They've not forced any turnovers.
So you don't get extra possessions with Furman so far
this year. You lose a few, you don't gain any
plus ten and a half. I don't know, Like I said,
I didn't play the game, but as I talk it
through here, it could be a little bit of a
lean towards Manhattan plus ten and a half. And I
think that's the angle that the question was coming from.
I can't even remember now, but I think they were
looking at Manhattan.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: No, well, he was saying his number was closer to four,
and so I was trying. I feel like we kind
of did sort of talk that out and maybe validate
his number a little bit, right, Like I No.
Speaker 2: I really I have to.
Speaker 1: I kind of didn't even I kind of stop making number,
like a number for Manhattan games and just trying to
sort of read the market in the matchup a little bit,
because if I make a number for Manhattan right now,
I know it's gonna be skewed. And it's like for me,
like Signore was so important to that team that it's
almost like you have to throw out all priors if
he's not out there and try to make it off
of what you've seen this year. And I'm always gonna
like if that's why I haven't even tried to make
a number for that game, that if I do, it's
going to be pro Manhattan. I already know that, So
I just would rather wait on that one and see
if it gets to a point where it's like, Okay,
I just have no choice.
Speaker 2: I have to take Manhattan here.
Speaker 1: Listen, at ten and a half, you're getting pretty close
to that point, especially with them playing on their home floor.
So yeah, I think on Manhattan are passed there as well.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to your.
Speaker 1: Neck of the woods, rob especially because I threw the
sweatshirt on and I got at the NEC final last
year where Central Connecticut State was stunned on their home
floor by Saint Francis. They everyone in the building and
that's actually where this game is tonight. Dietrich Gym. Have
you been to Dietrich Gym before? That's been there forever too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I was there forever ago. A buddy of
mine graduated there in nineteen eighty three. I was probably
in there in nineteen eighty one.
Speaker 1: I would imagine it's probably still the same building. They've
just spruced it up over the years. It's got one
of those like the NEC conference is full of those
where it's like you walk in it's like kind of
like walking into a high school. Yeah, this facility opened
in nineteen sixty five, so it was very much there
in the early eighties. They've actually done a really nice
job in there with some of the suites and stuff
that they've put in. But small facility. Reason I want
to bring this kind of goes. It's a perfect theme
for the show. We started the show talking about coaching.
Pat Sellers deserves any job that he wants. Some team
is gonna hire Pat Sellers away from Central Connecticut State,
probably at the end of this year or very soon,
and they're gonna get just an absolute stud of a coach.
Speaker 2: He lost the.
Speaker 1: Best player in the conference, Jordan Jones was the best
player in the NC last year. They had such a
tremendous team, and he's turned right back around and put
what I consider to be like I know a lot
of people think Long Island was the favorite and is
the favorite in the NEC this year, but I'll put
Central Connecticut State right up there against them. He's just
an awesome coach. They're always prepared. He's found a couple
of like d two diamonds in the rough, and he's
gonna face cross state rival Fairfield tonight, who I think
we've noted on this show has been kind of good
in these types of games where it's a competitive game.
You know, really will use the term weight class again,
Fairfield has been pretty good in these types of games.
So Fairfield hits the road here they're catching three possessions.
Do you have anything in this one? Fairfield Central Coach,
Central Connecticut State and hard hitting New Britain Tonight, Rob Vita.
Speaker 3: Hard hitting New Britain. You know, when I first looked
at it, I didn't really like the road results of
Fairfield and take you to the road here, and I
don't know that coming from that state, living there thirty
one years, I just don't ever remember Fairfield and Central
Connecticut being rivals. They're a little bit they're a little
bit apart. So I won't use the word rivalry here,
but in state matchup a team in Fairfield that brings
some things on the road adam that do travel, they
don't turn it over and they rebound well. And if
you could do those two things on the road, you
can sometimes survive bad shooting nights, which maybe they could
be in four here against it. They're not a good,
good shooting team. They went to Manhattan and could only
score sixty six points in the seventy sixty six lost.
Central Connecticut, for what it's worth, is going to put
more points than that on the board here. Haven't been
home in a while. Last time they were home it
was a one eight one oh six of substance with
a line attached to it against Sacred Heart in a
wild game. I could almost see Central Connecticut picking up
their scoring here if I was to look at it
from team total or total perspective. Not so sure that
Fairfield can keep up if they get behind, which creates margins,
So maybe a look there. But again you combat those
things with the fact that they Fairfield does not turn
it over and they can play on the glass with
Central Connecticut. So it comes down to little stuff maybe
like foul trouble, etc. Et cetera. Central to me is
the better team. Central should probably score points here, but
I don't trust them to really separate and create huge
margin against this team, which, if nothing else, if it
had described Fairfield, if nothing else, they're kind of gritty.
They just don't shoot it well enough at this point
in time, and Central plays pretty good defense for that
level of you know, basketball. So I'm probably at a
standstill here with no real selection, But I guess allegiance,
even though Fairfield is way closer to home. Allegiance would
probably be with my buddy and my brother in law, who.
Speaker 2: Both graduated CCSU.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you make a great point about Fairfield and and
sort of their lack of shooting. I actually played against
Fairfield successfully maybe yeah, about ten days ago. They went
on the road to Merrimack, and that that's a terrible
matchup for the Merrimack just sits in that Joe Gallo
tough zone and you have to shoot over it, and
that was a really bad matchup for them. The Manhattan
Fairfield game that you referenced in our last breakdown, that
was a pretty good game. Could have gone either way,
and that was one of those things where it's like Fairfield,
I feel like it was not able to fully exploit
like Manhattan's lack of depth in that game, and so
Manhattan was able to play their starters pretty much the
whole game, and that's a pretty good starting five.
Speaker 2: It's it's the depth that kills them.
Speaker 1: CCSU can defend, but they play mostly man as far
as I'm pretty sure, Sellers usually has kind of a
you know, more traditional man defense with a couple of
usually bigs like that are good chop blockers, good rebounders,
you know, kind of rim protectors. That actually might not
be the worst thing for Fairfield because they are gritty
rob That was probably a good the best way to
describe them there. They're scrappy team. They can go off
the dribble a little bit, and like that makes me
think that maybe they hang around here. You're talking about
five and a half or six points kind of reminds
me I cashed in. So someone pointed out Central Connecticut's
schedule this year has been almost all road games. They
go up and play a lot of by games as well,
and then recently they've been out on the road just
to some smaller Northeast schools. They came out to Binghamton
last weekend, believe they played at Northeastern before that. So
they've actually only played one Division One opponent at home
so far this year. That was Sacred Heart and that
was a one o eight one oh six OT thriller.
I ended up on the right side of that game
with Sacred Heart plus three and a half. Central Connecticut
State ended up hitting a jumper in OT I believe
to win that game. My gut says, it's this. This
could be a similar game. I don't think you're not
from a scoring standpoint, not scoring in the hundreds, but
kind of tight. Neither team can really pull away. And
I think if if that's the case, I think I'd
prefer to have those points with Fairfield if I had
to bet this game. Yeah, Bayu says, yeah. The only
Division One opponent that CCSU has played at home this
year was that Sacred Heart game. Very competitive game, and
I think you get another competitive one here.
Speaker 3: And they're traveling at them. For what it's worth. Central's
travel from New Britain is all those games are within
like a sixty mile radius. They're not really going anywhere.
There are away games, but they're not going any distance
in those games, price right, So I.
Speaker 1: Would say recently was the most travel they've done, where
they went to Northeastern up in Boston and then had
to come all the way out here to Binghamton.
Speaker 2: That's where they were over the weekend.
Speaker 1: They were out here at Binghamton and they blasted what
I considered to be a bad Binghamton team. So you know,
it should be interesting though, I would wouldn't wouldn't surprise
me if that game was kind of tight.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Got some folks talking about Temple Davidson, and that's actually
on a slate where there's not much in the way
of like big games. I guess an A ten league
contest deserves some time on the show. So this is
down in North Carolina tonight. Two teams that for me
have been underwhelming recent years in the A ten. You know,
I don't know how Steph Curry is actively general managing
when he still plays professional basketball, but he is their GM,
I believe is the title they gave him. Davidson though
had some guys out. I think they're getting healthy in
time for league play. Seth Logan was one of them.
That one of the guys that missed time. That's very
very important to Davidson and what they want to do
and how they want to play. So I guess my
first sort of thought here, Rob was I wasn't surprised
that Davidson was laying this number at home in a
league game. They're kind of a team that I think
I want to jump on sooner than later. Do you
jump on them here against Temple? And what I believe
is going to be their A ten opener and could
be the return of Seth Logan, who we did not
see in that Mercy Hurst game and he was rumored
to come back. So that's something to keep your eye on.
Is Shawn Logan, sorry, Seawn Logan going to play tonight
for Davidson?
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's two different styles of basketball here where
player is concerned Adam a Temple you get more of
the ball handling ability to get to the rim. Where
Davidson they've met McKillop just picking up his father's trail
and playing slow deliberate, but really good shooting basketball. I mean,
they remain a really good shooting team. Davis and schedule
hasn't been great ranked in the when I looked this morning,
I think I had two seventy nine and maybe in
the two eighties. For Temple, they were comparable. Let's put
it that way. Schedule wise, they were comparable, so there's
no real edge there. But Davidson has shot it well.
It's their basically their trademark, their blueprint. Play slow, make
hit threes, play the system. You're not really going to
get a lot off to dribble into the rim. The
problem for Temple is they've just played zero defense all
season long. It's just not a good defensive team. I
can see offensive advantages for Temple in quickness and maybe
that type of getting to the foul line, getting to
the rim, et cetera. But when it comes to the
other end of the floor, the defensive end, I just
think that, you know, Davidsons, we talk about defenses that
grind teams down. Offensive styles can rind a team down,
and for to ask Temple to play defense twenty five
twenty eight seconds into a shot clock, I just don't
think that they're capable of doing that against Davidson here, however,
you're getting points just trying to check the number here
as we speak, you're going to take five and a
half points in a game that's going to be limited
possessions with a team that I do think can find
their way to the rim and to the free throw line,
and they shoot threes really well. So it's an interesting matchup.
If I had to, I think the money's correct. I'm
betting this thing under. It's all the way down to
one forty four. Probably lost your number was the opener
and at five and a half, I just don't know
which way. Look. My problem with five and a half
is this, I think it's competitive, but I think Davidson
can stretch it on the free throw line if they're
ahead at the end. And you just hate to be
in that situation where you're, you know, within four is
an underdog and you have to file score file scoring.
You end up losing by seven. So probably wouldn't play
side and perhaps the total the good number is already gone,
but still it should be a lower scoring game. Davidson
just doesn't let things get out of hand.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I want to talk about Logan for a second,
because I really do think that his his inclusion on
the team is massive for them going forward. Now, he's
played in five games this year, but to my knowledge,
he's been pretty much battling whatever injury has ailed him
since like before the.
Speaker 2: Season even started.
Speaker 1: So like, yes, he's played in five games, but I
mean a couple of them were like, you know, I
remember he got out on the floor in that empty
against Utah State for like a couple of possessions and
then he was like done for the game.
Speaker 2: I don't think he's played since then.
Speaker 1: He he's a six to ten big and Davidson has
another one, So Ian Plateau is the other one that
it would almost they be in like a little bit
of a time share. He's at Platow's a seven footer,
and they kind of would play them, not at the
same time, but it's like, you know, one's gonna play
fifteen to twenty minutes, the other is.
Speaker 2: Gonna play fifteen to twenty minutes.
Speaker 1: That's kind of what Plato's played this year, Like those
are his minutes. Seems to be like fifteen minutes a game.
So the problem is once he's off the floor, they
don't have the other big and the other thing. I
really I believe, and I'm just going off memory, but
I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the goal was
to have Logan back for a ten play, and so
this is, in fact the a ten opener for both
of these teams, and he has it like they haven't
even they haven't even chanced it in recent games. I
think they're they're chancing it. Was hey, let's see if
you can play a little bit in the MTE didn't
go well, and then it was like, all right, you know,
our next few games are games we should win without him. Citadel,
you know, the Saint Mary's game. I don't think they
ever truly expected to win that game. Mercy Hurst, NCA
and T let's shut him down into league play. If
he's out there, that to me is a considerable bump
for Dayton. I would probably consider the Dayton side of that.
If you, I'm sorry Dayton, Davidson, Davidson, the Wildcats, I
would consider the davidsonside. If Sean Logan shows up in
that starting five tonight. Okay, let's go to you, Rob.
This is a Jose asks for Drake and Murray State,
and you are the Missouri Valley guy on this show.
Speaker 2: That one's right in your wheelhouse.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna I'm gonna take a break from talking
for a second because I've been yapping a lot here
with these small Northeastern schools and give you the floor.
Drake Murray State, Missouri Valley Conference play tonight.
Speaker 2: Getting going all right.
Speaker 3: So first reaction here, and this was probably the first
game I looked at on the card last night, obviously
huge interest in it. First reaction, initial reactions, just general
thought is that Drake is not the same team, certainly
not the same style. Eric Henderson came from South Dakota State.
He plays a totally different way than Drake is accustomed
to playing. It shows up in some of these results.
So my first thought is to play against or to
fade Drake immediately until they get their feet underneath them,
so to speak, and understand who they are and what
they're going to be doing. And Murray State's not an
ideal opponent to start your season with. Ryan Miller's crew
actually has it going pretty well right now. Played a
high scoring George Washington team. Won that game on a
neutral whacked Morehead State, which they were supposed to do
and then came back and listen. Akron and John Gross
is a really good team and Murray beat them by
fifteen points the other day. They've got offensive capabilities and
they play at a transitional pace that Henderson is trying
to kind of convert Drake into, but they're not there yet.
To me, this game is at home at Murray. I
think it's probably one of the worst teams or matchups
that Drake could have had to start the season. I
think when they rematch January twenty first, over a month
from now in Drake, maybe it's a different story. But
right now, I'm all about Murray State, their ability to score,
their ability to defend, their ability to shoot, and they
crash the boards from the offensive perspective, and I like
a team that knows what they're doing at this point
in time versus a team that honestly is in a
still in somewhat of an identity. I don't want to
call it crisis. Let's call it switch.
Speaker 1: Identity crisis is I think crisis is accurate.
Speaker 2: Well, I think crisis is a good.
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and use crisis that I don't really
like the Drake side at this point in time. So
for me, it's Murray State. It'll make the card today
for sure in some capacity. I don't know how strongly
I'll play it, but I will be playing the Murray
State side.
Speaker 1: Rob The reason I think crisis was an accurate sort
of way to talk about Drake is Owen Larson came
back two games ago. So Owen Larson is the highest
rated player.
Speaker 2: On this roster by far.
Speaker 1: If you buy an EV and MAI as BPR ratings
like player ratings, Owen Larson is far and away Drake's
highest rated player. Now, Owen Larson comes over with Eric
Henderson from South Dakota State and by all accounts, was
supposed to be their best player going into the year.
Now he gets hurt. He finally made his season debut,
I believe, off the bench against UAB, only played eleven minutes.
What's more concerning to me is the twenty one minutes
he played over the weekend against North Dakota State that
were largely ineffective.
Speaker 2: He looked.
Speaker 1: I caught as much of that game as I could
because it was interested to see what Drake looked like
upon his actual return, and very passive, very much a
facilitator only attempted three shots. I mean, he is a guard,
had five assists, But to me that you got to
get more out of him in twenty one minutes on
the floor, where otherwise it kind of looks like a
net negative. And so I think you're you see this
open seven and a half. I'm certain that someone out
there is going to bet Drake today and their reasoning
for betting Drake is going to be like, well, ohen
Larson's back, but like he's now played thirty minutes, he
hasn't looked very back. To me, Rob, I didn't really
you know, he didn't really do anything. So like, yeah,
he's back, as he's out on the floor, he didn't
do anything. So I'm kind of with you. I think
Murray State would be the look because I don't think
he's adding to the number at all right now.
Speaker 3: And I would say this, I talk about this often
with our colleagues, skeep profit when we do NBA. Reintegrating
a star player into a lineup is never easy. It
just doesn't become cohesive overnight. And you're talking about Larsen
playing with new teammates all over the place. You know,
you play with South Dakota. That was a good rhythm team,
it's not the same. It probably takes time. That's why
I was saying before that maybe in the January twenty
first rematch we see a little better version of Drake.
But I don't like the fact that they open with Murray.
It's just a bad league opponent to have to open
with on the road. So again, just to further your point,
I feel like Murray states the proper side here.
Speaker 1: Steve Duke says, y'all talk to me on to the
Drake play. I'm passing on that now listen. I mean,
you know, you never know what's going to happen. But
that's also part of the reason for this show.
Speaker 2: You know. I know a lot of people that.
Speaker 1: Show up to watch us are really trying to handicap
the games themselves. I would say that's where we add
the most value. Robbino, I will let people know that
if you just want picks, if you're just looking for picks,
we got picks, and those picks are at wager Talk.
There's always good specials. There's almost never a scenario where
you have to pay full price. The full court package
gets you I think three days at a pretty big discount.
Rob and I'll do the weekend special pretty much every
weekend this year. We're going to have a scenario where
you can get mine and Rob's plays for the same
price for the whole weekend. The way that the two
of us bet will almost never be on the same thing,
So I don't think there's ever gonna be a scenario
where we're either against each other or even on the
same side. With the volume over the weekend and the
way we both bet, so you know, that's where you
can get the picks. But this show is probably more
geared toward helping you do your own handicapping and just
giving you the info you need to make a bet,
and so that's what we're trying to do here, and
hopefully we talk you off a loser. Hopefully the racers
race away with this one and we save you some coin.
Right there, Rob, it is ten fifty one? Is it
okay if I put you on the spot for your parlay?
Speaker 3: Lan? Yeah, now absolutely, I probably could have gone five
or six minutes ago. But let's go ahead and backtrack,
because I scan the board and yesterday, you know what, Adam, yesterday,
before I made my plass that it was down to
three things, I could have picked any of them. Cincinnati
team total went over, the Alabama South Florida game full
game went over, and I landed on NC State team total,
which went over today. There's a couple of things I
was looking at to choose, from the second of which, guys,
would have been this William and Mary game. In fact
that's going to be to play. The second of which
was the Saint Joe's team total against Delaware State, which
I think might be a little bit under priced. Do
with that what you want, but for the parlay purposes
we talked about this game already. The pace is going
to be so rapid here. William and Mary's team total
is ninety and a half. It's a team that's a
custom under Brian into getting into that territory. As Adam
said last year, underpriced. It kind of like I almost
feel like bookmakers, Adam. I'm going to go back to
something you said earlier about slow to react to Brian
Earl and William and Mary as far as totals are concerned,
it seems like they were quicker odds makers or betters
to react to IU Indy, which now we see coming
back to Earth and a lot of unders in that case,
I don't think that's the situation here with two teams
that want to get up and down is the preferred pace.
A lot of bucket getters on the floor here, lots
of opportunities. So I'm going to play William and Mary's
team total up and over ninety and a half.
Speaker 1: William and Mary that's up and over ninety and a half.
Speaker 2: You know what's interesting about that? That just point in general.
Speaker 1: So something Brian Earl said a couple of years ago
going into the year that he had a really good
Cornell team that ultimately probably got him this job. He
talked about being so excited that he had guys that
were in year two and year three, because he straight
up came out and he said, not only is my
system tough in year one, but these guys have no
idea what they're getting in for from a conditioning standpoint
to play the I want them to play. And he
referenced the Cornell team from the year prior totally like
flaming out in February and he was just like they
they They're conditioning wasn't good enough to play the whole season.
I do think you maybe saw that a little bit
with William and Mary. Going off memory, going back to
last year, they started to sort of flame out in
February and they weren't putting up the big numbers and
they were and they weren't winning games like at the
rate they were early in the season. And I'll just
attribute that to Brian Earl's crazy style press the whole game.
Speaker 2: We're flying up and down the floor, We're gonna fire
up a three.
Speaker 1: It's it's not you know, you need a year, I
think just to figure out like, oh shit, like I better,
I better get in shape over the summer, right, because
that's that that asks a lot. And so I I
so two things that help you out here, Rob. One,
it's mid December. They're not tired yet, they haven't hit
the gauntlet of league games to this point. And two,
maybe they're just a little bit better conditioned, so they
are going to be able to play their style and
you should see them sort of realize their potential more,
which would be in this case probably hitting that team
total over.
Speaker 2: So I am very much with you on the William
and Mary look. And I'll just well.
Speaker 3: I said this happens a lot here, Adam. I'm sorry
to interrupt, but This happens a lot where you'll say
something and guys get used to us doing this throughout
the season, but you'll say something that triggers a thought
in my head that I just got to bring up.
He talked about conditioning with William and Mary they kind
of slacked off scoring wise. The same exact thing happened,
and not that the team wasn't used to it, But
I want to just project ahead here for this year.
We do that a little bit on this show too.
Bucky McMillan Samford team last year, just from a guy
who kept betting Samford team total over over over plays
a relatively fast style. Samford was racking up numbers like
crazy until mid February inside conference, and then all of
a sudden the results became very sporadic, lower scoring, more misshots.
I'm like, what is it? I had a client actually
DM me last year's day what's wrong with Samford? And
it could possibly be the same thing. Only reason I
bring it up is because Bucky McMillan now at Texas
A and M, and Texas A and M looks great
scoring the basketball early on, but they're gonna go through
the riggers of an SEC season. It could be a
few weeks from now where we're able to capitalize on
higher team totals with Texas A and M that are
gonna stay under simply because that factor of being worn
down by a thirty four game college basketball season affects them.
We're scoring is concerned.
Speaker 2: It's what this is, what we're here for.
Speaker 1: I mean, those those are the types of things like
that might help you cash or ticket a few weeks
from now, and you got it here free, so you know,
but by all means.
Speaker 2: Those are the types of thoughts we want on this show.
Speaker 1: I at the gun before we recap the pilot, we
got about five minutes left. I'll talk about the eleven
am tip. I don't have anything crazy here from a
you know, this was not one that I even considered
playing today. But you do have an eleven am tip.
Charleston Southern, North Florida. I'm assuming that is that in
the buck Dome they call this places. It's not really
a dome. I mean maybe the structure is a dome.
It's a very small gym that they playing down at
Charleston Southern, which, fun fact, Rob is in North Charleston.
Charleston Southern is in North Charleston for those of you
keeping score at home. I like this team. Though I
could only lay the ten and a half, you could
have had nine and a half early this morning. I'm
a fan of the Bucks. I think they are a
sleeper in their league. All on Summer is still there
from last year. They got some guys that can score,
so as it stands right now, there are some tens
out there. Again, not my strongest sort of take on
the day, but it does start in four minutes if
they get off to a slow start. Maybe a live
bet on Charleston Southern. But that's about all I have
anything for you. North Florida Chuck South as the kids
like to call it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I will say this. It didn't go out as
a client card client play early this morning. I was
real quick to this, but I did make a personal bet.
I do have bet action on this game. Total over,
I got a way better number guys sixty and a
half earlier this morning. You're up to the one sixty
three now, probably because it is an eleven am standalone
game where everybody's gonna just bet the early game. But
I did for what it's worth for anybody who wants
to take the bad end of the line now and
just tail I'm on Charleston Southern North Florida over should
be a high scoring gain point. North Florida cannot defend
worth of time. It's a team that used to be
in the A Sun with Belmont when my son was
there and North Florida was you know, halfway decent, but
recent years all high scoring, no real defense. I like,
I bet it over sixty and a half. Like I say,
do with that, which you will.
Speaker 1: Yeah, North Florida is a big, big fade, not that
there's gonna be much value doing it, but like the
architect of that Birds of Trey sort of system that
they had going there is now at Kansas State. They
this is not a good basketball team this year. So
for me, could only fade them numbers. Obviously they're asking
you to pay a premium on the home favorite in
the eleven AM standalone tip, but might not matter because
I think Charleston Southern's a lot better and if they
can really get going, and if let's put it this way,
if your team total hits that they're probably going to
cover that number.
Speaker 2: I feel like they run and hide in this game.
Speaker 3: At some point is somebody in the comment section. Adam
yesterday or the day before had a had a angle
on road teams in early early starts. Just bet against
the road teams and play these.
Speaker 2: Home Yeah, Jim Root was saying.
Speaker 1: Jim Root on the show was saying that he was
He was saying that the home teams have like anecdotically
like just not having the facts in front of him.
He was just saying for memory that he felt like
a lot of those home teams just rolls roll in
this in this sort of eleven am tip window.
Speaker 3: We listened around here, Jim.
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick, we'll break down the park, just recap
the parlay. We got about one minute left and and
we have to wrap it up. So I'm gonna, as
the kids say, Rob, I'm gonna stand on business. I'm
staying with Jackson State. I don't agree with that move
at all. Pinnacle is back to eight, but the market
is still at eight and a half everywhere. Wouldn't be
surprised if that's back down in the seven and a
half seven range by tip off. I think that could
be a little bit of a fake. So for the show,
for the parlay, it's gonna stay eight and a half.
But I did get that out to clients plus seven
for a three percent play, so hopefully the numbers don't
Hopefully the number doesn't matter here. I'm gonna go with
Jackson State plus eight and a half, and then we're
gonna go with Rob Bino's team total.
Speaker 2: Over William and Mary over ninety and a half.
Speaker 1: We cashed the parlay yesterday to put us plus one
point four to six units on the season, so we're
back in the plus and we're gonna stay there. We're
gonna hit this two teamer win or lose.
Speaker 2: Though.
Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow to wrap up the week ten
am for more Full Court Press. Have a great day, everybody.
We will see you guys in the morning.
Speaker 3: Six