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Speaker 1: Welcome in to wager Talk's last Call. I am Kelly

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Stewart and we have a star studded lineup for you

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guys today. We're gonna start off with Yannie the Greek.

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We've got Ralph Michaels, Steve Merrill, and Kyle Anthony if

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he can find the log and link, might join us

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to talk about you. FC Perth. We're gonna find out today.

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Up next on last call, I've got the needs from

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the Westgates super Book. We'll get to you here in

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a minute, but first I want to hear from VR.

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I know he's got a busy day ahead of him.

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He's got a new background. It looks beautiful there in

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Las Vegas. Welcome in, Good morning, VR. Always appreciate you

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hanging out with us here early on the West Coast. VR,

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we got you muted. Let me get you unmuted there. Nope,

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we still still muted. We gotta we gotta redo that.

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I don't know how you got muted, but I can't

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unmute you. I apologize for some reason on the back end.

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I can't do that. It's uh and the bottom the

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bottom corner there for you hit the mike button while

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VR is doing that, guys, while we get him unmuted,

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I'm gonna read you, guys some of the sharp stuff

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here from the Westgate super Book. We'll go right into it,

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and I'm going to say right now, I love this

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first one from what from art at the Westgate. Iowa

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is going to be a big need Iowa, if you

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guys remember, is in my three team moneyline parlay for today.

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I am very excited about the Iowa team. I think

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this is a really great spot for them and their

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defense to maybe stifle that freight train that is Indiana.

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They also need Central Michigan, Kansas, Oklahoma State. Remember they

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just fired their head coach, Mike Gundy. And this one

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surprised me. He said, they are going to need Georgia.

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Speaker 2: He said.

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Speaker 1: Some sharp plays that are worth noting Bowling Green that

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got bet at plus ten, Pittsburgh plus four and a half,

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Minnesota minus four and a half now up to minus

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five and a half, New Mexico got steemed is fourteen

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up to fifteen and a half, and Marshall was a

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pick the three public plays of the day over at

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the Westgate Super Book. USC glad to hear that, because

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we've got Illinois in our three team money line parlay

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as well. LSU gonna be interesting. I did play Old

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Miss and a couple of my Westgate college football contests,

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and then Notre Dame interesting one there. I liked Arkansas

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earlier in the week and missed the number there, so

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I elected to stay off. And Art says his best

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bet today is Hawaii and even included the cute little

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rainbow emoji with the football. All right, VR, I think

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you are unmuted. You are ready to go to brand

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new setup. I know you just moved in the last

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like forty eight hours since I saw you.

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Speaker 3: I have a task rabbit lady coming over to organize

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the room later today, so.

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Speaker 1: That is a wonderful idea. You've got way too much

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stuff going on, so we're gonna let you do what

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you do best and tell us all of the stuff

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that you've seen so far for this week in college football.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Kell.

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Speaker 1: Dive right in.

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Speaker 2: I know you just talked about Pittsburgh. They're getting hit

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right now.

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Speaker 3: Be cautious because I saw two way action on that

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earlier in the week, and Pittsburgh seems to be the

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public side I'm seeing in the back end as well, now,

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some of the higher marquee games that I know everybody's

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interested in Alabama and Georgia. Here's what I got there.

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Alabama got steamed at plus three. Alabama also got steamed

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on the money line and also the under under fifty

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three as well. So they're on Alabama and they're on

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the under in that game. Penn State Oregon, they laid

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the three and a half with the Penn State side. Mississippi,

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we talked about that. Mississippi got bet on the money line.

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I saw more money line sharp action than actually on

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the point spread on the Mississippi side. So as far

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as the big games go, that's what we're seeing there. Now.

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Some of the other steam plays. We could talk about

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Ohio State, and I know it looks public as well

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because they're teasing it their money parlaying it as well.

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But I did see Ohio State get bet by Bettingston

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Degains as well, and they went under fifty two in

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the Ohio State and Washington game. I personally think Ohio

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State's the best team in college football. A couple more

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college football moves for you, UH one twenty five under

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sixty four and a half, Notre Dame Arkansas under sixty

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four and a half. I'm seeing one sided public money over.

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They are blindly betting that one over. And you're seeing

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a lot of sharp betters picking off any rogue numbers

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to go under in that Notre Dame Arkansas game, Stanford

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minus one and a half and two Colorado late game

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picking off sevens. So you're seeing one sided action on

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the favorite there. That's why you're seeing six and a half.

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But they know they could limit risk. All they have

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to do is go to seven. There'll be more than

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an f Sharp's they're ready to grab it with Colorado.

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So pay attention to Joad's logic screen, or like I said,

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at the very least, the wager talk screen to see

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what the books are doing with that game.

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Speaker 2: Soul State, I'm sure.

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Speaker 4: Others spoke about that.

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Speaker 3: They got stayed from four three and a half three,

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So Arkansas State getting a lot of love, Memphis minus

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thirteen and like I always do, one added game over

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forty seven and a half and forty eight stats in

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and Dayton and that's yeah, pretty much it. I mean,

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there's a lot of college football, but those are confirmed

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without resistance, not scalpable, not being set up for any

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middles or anything like that.

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Speaker 1: All right, Vereron, Let's take a couple of questions here

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from the audience. Jacob McNeill wants to know what are

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you seeing on the Texas A and M Auburn game?

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Any sharp sided action? I know Marco gave out Texas

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A and M. He said it was his trap game

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this week on the college football edition of bet on It.

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I kind of leaned Auburn, but back to back road

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games kind of enough to push me away. I did

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end up playing them in a couple of college contests.

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Your thoughts on this game or have you seen anything

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prominent in the back ends.

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Speaker 3: No, I haven't seen any sharp backs. I'm even looking

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again now and hadn't seen anything on that side.

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Speaker 2: I did see the under.

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Speaker 3: The underget steam from a group, and that's opposite the

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public too. That the one sided action that sticks out

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on that game is over money from the public.

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Speaker 4: I'm seeing good two way action.

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Speaker 3: You're always going to get a little heavier money on

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the favor, especially when you add in moneyline parlays, when

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you add in teasers.

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Speaker 4: But nothing really.

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Speaker 3: Sticking out except for that over from the public, sharp

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under from the wise guys.

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Speaker 1: All right, I know tomorrow you're going to have a

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edition of the Steam Room out. Can you promote that

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before we take a couple more of these questions.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, we're going to go live that final hour heading

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into NFL games. I'm going to go through every NFL

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game as quickly as possible to share sides, totals, props,

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we get live bets coming in, and more importantly, we

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put in those teasers about fifteen minutes to kick off

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for seven and one on those teasers through three weeks

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of the NFL season. Currently number one in NFL in

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the regular season. I feel really good about a week

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three card, feel good about today's college card. Hopefully we're

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discussing a big day Saturday tomorrow in the stateroom. Make

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sure you join us. It will be free and I'll

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answer all your questions. We'll talk risk management, will go

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over year to date results and all that good stuff. Again,

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it'll be twelve noon, but first I'll be on here

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at about eleven am Eastern going over last call with

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you guys as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Ariel, we'll be back hosting tomorrow, so you

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can catch VR up first with her here as well

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as John Murray, Carmine Bianco going over all that NFL slate. Now,

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lou Wan's to know my thoughts in k Sate. We'll

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get to those questions here later on with Ralph In.

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Speaker 3: A lot of K State love, a lot of K

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State love, I.

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Speaker 1: Will talk about it. Let's talk about it. So I

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have a lot of buddies, and I tweeted this the

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other night when we were watching the Army ECU game.

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I'm like, K State lost to this offense, Like this

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is just a dragful offense. Yes, the defensive side of

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Army held the ball for ninety percent of the second half.

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That is something that did happen. Yes, there was a

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wonky touchdown that got called back. There was a lot

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of weird things that happened in that game. But the

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reality is I don't think this k State team is tough.

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And I had a buddy go well, Chris Clement's fighting

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for his job. No, he's not. He's best friends with

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the athletic director. And that's probably not something I should

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say that would benefit me to say out to fifteen

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hundred people watching live. But that is the reality. So

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if you guys are betting on Kansas State, today because

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you think that they're due for a bounce back after

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a bye. I think that's the wrong move. If you

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guys are betting on K State today because you think

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they're coaches in the hot seat, that's also another wrong move.

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I'll tell you this. I do think K State is

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a much better team than we've seen, but so was

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Florida State last year, who ended up finishing the season

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two to ten. The Dublin air Lingus curse is real.

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I am convinced this is not a good spot because

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UCF just had a tragic medical emergency. I believe it

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was a hard attack with one of their coaches. They're

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going to come out and play just hard, so we

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can argue both sides of the coin here. I thought

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six was a completely egregious number, and now we're seeing

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it down to five. VR You're saying a lot of

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people are on K State, and I'm not really understanding it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, seeing in the back end, like recreational accounts, it's

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all one sided. Like I'm surprised I lost the case

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State a couple of weeks ago. I kind of been downgrading, downgraded,

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and downgrading, But I wanted your opinion on that real quickly.

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I just got a second. What Eman will say? You

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look absolutely stunning today, just real bright.

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Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Every time different, I have

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a different ring, like maybe this is the ring, maybe

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this is yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks absolutely stunning.

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Speaker 1: Thank YOUVR, idi that you're very welcome. Let's see what

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else we've got here. Any other questions?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, someone asked about Tennessee misssip State game. Here's what

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I'll tell you. You're seeing that line drop where it

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sits now. I like Tennessee or pass. I get it

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if you got an early number on home Dog, but

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I think it's just dropped too significantly for me. I

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haven't touched the game, but I think it's it's a

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favorite or pass situation right now.

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Speaker 1: All right, anything else you want to go over VR

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before we let you go. I know you've got a

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busy Saturday a head.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: No, I'm just really excited honestly about today's court. I

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love the College Football Board. I'm a little lower volume

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this week was able to narrow down some really strong plays.

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Speaker 2: I love the UFC car.

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Speaker 3: I got four to four percent and a couple three

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percents in there as well, and hopefully we cheer in

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a winning Saturday and roll that into Sunday NFL real

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good car, join me for the steam room. Best of

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luck to you all today. Thank you again, Kel for

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having me on, and hope the whole Wager Talks team

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does some damage today.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, we are here to do some damage. We're gonna

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answer all your college football questions here with Ralph Michaels

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up next, we'll bring him in, and then of course

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we've got Steve Merrill and he can find the link.

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We're gonna let Kyle in. But if he can't find

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the link, no UFC today, not my deal. Ralph Michaels

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is laughing because he knows. He knows I run a

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tight ship over here at Wager Talk. And of course

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I'm sitting on a tall stool and the guy that's

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sixty six is sitting on a small stool, so we

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look completely opposite heights right now. But Ralph Michaels, welcome in.

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How's your college football season been. We haven't talked except

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for that you sent me that we may be opposite

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on a play, and I'll leave that to promote because

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it's your five percent play, and I was not very

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happy with that and Ralph is muted too. We got

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everybody muted this morning. I appreciate them getting themselves in

241
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the background because that is one of my rules. It's

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like when you're not on air, you have to mute yourself,

243
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so at least they listen.

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Speaker 5: On that front, we are back, you know, number two

245
00:11:38,279 --> 00:11:40,679
in college football since the start of twenty twenty four,

246
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behind mister Boss Benjamin So him and I have been

247
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battling the entire time. Eleven and six this year, So

248
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very excited. I do have a five percent since the

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start of last year. I've had six five percents in

250
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:55,519
college football, perfect six to zero.

251
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Speaker 2: I've got a weird stat for you, callenty.

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Speaker 5: Not a weird stat, but when a team is play

253
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UCF off a loss, like Kansas State is, they're sixteen

254
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:07,080
and one against the spread, so you know they've been

255
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beaten up. It's sort of random because it's over three years,

256
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but you know, just just something to throw out.

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Speaker 2: There for you.

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Speaker 1: Hey, that's not a bad set. Listen. I'm not cheering

259
00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,639
against my team. I'm just trying to be a realist,

260
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which I think every sports handicapper should be a realist

261
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about what their team is going through. Any drama, any bs,

262
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and those things are occurring right now, right like the

263
00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,559
wheels have kind of fallen off there in Manhattan, Kansas,

264
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whether people want to admit it or not. All right,

265
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Ralph and I are going to get into some of

266
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these college football questions. Ralph, we finished over here with

267
00:12:38,799 --> 00:12:43,399
a question from Jojo before finding out with VR about

268
00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:47,320
Mississippi State. Tennessee. Mississippi State was real close, not real close,

269
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,480
but they're pretty far down on my list. I thought,

270
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all right, I'm looking for those outright underdogs. Can I

271
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make a case for this Mississippi State team? Kind of

272
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break down what you think about Tennessee Mississippi State and

273
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,759
what you think it's worth a wager or if at

274
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:03,080
this point time it's worth the pass.

275
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:05,919
Speaker 2: Oh, I like Mississippi State.

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Speaker 5: Kelly. First of all, you know, we have a situation

277
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that is that is eighty percent against the spread.

278
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Speaker 2: And what is that situation?

279
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,600
Speaker 5: When a conference home dog is on a win streak

280
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of four or more games, they are eighty.

281
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Speaker 2: Percent against the spread.

282
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Speaker 5: That's a pretty amazing number when you think about it,

283
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,600
and people talk about Mississippi State and some of the

284
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defenses in the SEC.

285
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Speaker 2: Mississippi State has played.

286
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,120
Speaker 5: A very weak schedule, no question, Southern miss Arizona State,

287
00:13:35,159 --> 00:13:38,240
Alcorn State in Northern Illinois. So all you could do

288
00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,120
is play the schedule that you were given. They have

289
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held all four opponents.

290
00:13:42,879 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 2: To a season low.

291
00:13:43,919 --> 00:13:46,759
Speaker 5: So even though you played crappy competition, you still did

292
00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:49,679
your job against that crappy competition. When I look at

293
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:53,679
Tennessee's defense, allowing five hundred and two yards to Georgia

294
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,320
scares the heck out of me. Allowing the three hundred

295
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,919
and seventy seven yards to Syracuse scares me. Their defense

296
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,000
it's actually number sixty two when you take what their

297
00:14:03,039 --> 00:14:07,240
feet defense has done against the opponent's rest of their averages.

298
00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,519
Speaker 2: To me, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an

299
00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,440
outright upset. I am with you on the bulldos oooh okay.

300
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,200
Speaker 1: That might have just been enough to get me to

301
00:14:15,279 --> 00:14:18,080
the window to add them to the list. Touth be told, Ralph,

302
00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:20,679
I have stopped betting a lot earlier in the week

303
00:14:20,799 --> 00:14:23,240
years past. I was always betting Monday's Tuesdays. This year,

304
00:14:23,279 --> 00:14:25,919
I was like, every single game I have beat the

305
00:14:25,919 --> 00:14:29,200
market on, it hasn't mattered. Every single game that I

306
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,639
got the worst of the number I end up doing well,

307
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,919
whether it was Bandy or Maryland, whatever, It's just been

308
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,879
kind of an interesting year. So I may add them

309
00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,559
even no longer at seven and a half to my list.

310
00:14:41,759 --> 00:14:44,600
All right, Ralph, you have a five percent play up

311
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,879
at wager Talk. Let everybody know what that well, you

312
00:14:47,879 --> 00:14:49,639
can't tell them what that is, but you get the idea.

313
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:50,840
Let everyody know where they can get it.

314
00:14:51,639 --> 00:14:54,120
Speaker 5: Well again, Number two in college football since it started

315
00:14:54,159 --> 00:14:57,120
last year, and it's a no brainer whether you are

316
00:14:57,159 --> 00:15:00,399
going to sign up for me VR Steve Merrill, the

317
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,120
Weekend Warrior is the only way to go. We started

318
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,159
it three weeks ago. We were impressed with the numbers.

319
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,480
Last week it almost doubled. I'm expecting it to double again,

320
00:15:09,519 --> 00:15:12,360
and why wouldn't it. My five percent is thirty five dollars.

321
00:15:12,759 --> 00:15:15,240
Or you can get all of my Saturday college football,

322
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,200
all of my Sunday NFL and if I have an

323
00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,480
NFL play on Monday, you'll get that as well, for

324
00:15:20,679 --> 00:15:23,799
just fourteen dollars, more than the price of that five percent.

325
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,399
You still got an hour, Actually, I think you got

326
00:15:26,399 --> 00:15:28,320
a couple hours. I don't believe I have a noon

327
00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:30,879
game today, so you got a couple hours to get me.

328
00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,759
You've got about six or seven hours before my five

329
00:15:33,799 --> 00:15:35,840
percent goes, so plenty of time to jump in on

330
00:15:35,879 --> 00:15:36,720
the weekend Warrior.

331
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 1: All Right, Jeff Schroeder has a question, and I'll take

332
00:15:40,519 --> 00:15:42,159
the reins on it. I need someone to talk me

333
00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,720
off I you today. Iowa looks like Illinois to me,

334
00:15:45,759 --> 00:15:48,200
and I think Signetti will absolutely roll them three and

335
00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:50,720
zero as road favorites last year. Ralph, this is my

336
00:15:51,039 --> 00:15:53,720
one of my favorite bets this week. I do like Iowa.

337
00:15:53,799 --> 00:15:56,320
I mentioned just a minute ago, art to Caesar from

338
00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:58,960
the Westgate super Book said that the Westgate will need them.

339
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,799
I'll go back over those knees after we get down

340
00:16:00,879 --> 00:16:03,799
with Ralph as well, And so that just kind of

341
00:16:03,799 --> 00:16:06,039
gave me even the extra confident push to say, all right,

342
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,440
Iowa has a real opportunity to win this game. Out right.

343
00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:10,600
They've been holding their opponents less than fourteen and a

344
00:16:10,639 --> 00:16:13,360
half points per game. This is where you know an

345
00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:18,279
immovable force meets an immovable force, right offense versus defense

346
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,240
kind of break down this game for me. I'm curious

347
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:21,120
to see if we agree.

348
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 5: Well, Number one, you have to remember this playing at

349
00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,559
home in the biggest game maybe of your your biggest

350
00:16:29,559 --> 00:16:33,679
regular season game of your lifetime last week against Illinois

351
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,919
in that primetime game, blowing it out. And now what

352
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:38,960
do you do. You have to go on the road

353
00:16:39,759 --> 00:16:42,399
against a very good defense for your first road game

354
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,919
of the year. Last year, we know how good Indiana was,

355
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:48,519
and what did they do their first road trip? Well,

356
00:16:48,559 --> 00:16:51,799
they won significantly, but it was at UCLA. Then they

357
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,080
go to Northwestern and then they go to Michigan State.

358
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,360
So they didn't play a team that had a winning

359
00:16:56,399 --> 00:16:59,000
record on the road until they went to Ohio State

360
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,279
and lost by twenty and then at Notre Dame losing

361
00:17:02,279 --> 00:17:02,720
by ten.

362
00:17:02,879 --> 00:17:06,960
Speaker 2: In the playoffs. You look at Iowa. I was on

363
00:17:07,039 --> 00:17:08,359
Iowa last week.

364
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:13,279
Speaker 5: And boy did Gronkowski ever get backed. Against Albany he

365
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,200
was nine of sixteen for forty eight yards. Against Iowa

366
00:17:16,279 --> 00:17:21,200
State they had eighty three yards passing the light bulb

367
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,759
clicked guys. Against U Mass they put up four hundred

368
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and thirty five yards.

369
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Speaker 2: He was twenty one of thirty one.

370
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Speaker 5: And then last week at Rutgers he was twelve of

371
00:17:28,759 --> 00:17:32,680
eighteen one eighty six. Remember, Mark Ronkowski started fifty five

372
00:17:32,759 --> 00:17:35,359
games in South Dakota State. This isn't like a true

373
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,200
freshman that started the season. He just struggled the first

374
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,720
couple of games in the office. This Iowa team is

375
00:17:40,759 --> 00:17:44,960
completely different, with an offense that can score points. And

376
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,799
then you look at their defense. They held Iowa State

377
00:17:48,839 --> 00:17:50,440
to a season low, they held.

378
00:17:50,319 --> 00:17:51,480
Speaker 2: U mass to a season low.

379
00:17:51,839 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 5: They held Rutgers sixty one yards per game under what

380
00:17:55,079 --> 00:17:58,359
their average is, and on the season, they are number

381
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,480
of eleven in the NFL on defense holding their opponents

382
00:18:01,559 --> 00:18:05,400
under their average. I can't talk you off the Indiana Kelly,

383
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:06,799
because I'm with you on Iowa as well.

384
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,720
Speaker 1: Be very very very happy to hear that, Ralph. We're

385
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,079
gonna take a few more questions. We got about ten

386
00:18:16,079 --> 00:18:18,480
minutes left with Ralph before Steve Merrill gets in here.

387
00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:22,519
So Kentucky at usc Rain and the forecast Cats with

388
00:18:22,559 --> 00:18:27,039
a strong run Cox week defending the run money line

389
00:18:27,039 --> 00:18:28,599
on Kentucky. I'm gonna take the reins on this one

390
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,960
because it is in my three team money line parlay.

391
00:18:31,039 --> 00:18:33,240
I liked Kentucky here and hand up, I've been betting

392
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:38,759
against South Carolina all season long. Here's the reality. I

393
00:18:38,799 --> 00:18:41,039
feel like that Virginia Tech game right out of the gate,

394
00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:45,440
got a little wonky. You know, defensive defensive score, special teams,

395
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:49,720
those things tend to skew the points spread. Then I

396
00:18:49,839 --> 00:18:51,920
looked at it and said, all right, what's the real

397
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,960
problem here? And that was before the Bandy game, and

398
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,680
I said, Oh, my gosh, it's Mike Shula. Mike Shula

399
00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:00,119
is running this offense into the ground. You have Leonora Sellers,

400
00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:05,039
yet you have the worst third down every single time,

401
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,880
nine point four to one yards. That is the worst

402
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,799
in college football that they're averaging on third down. Thank

403
00:19:10,799 --> 00:19:13,200
god for Lenora Sellers. Hopefully for me, he does not

404
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:17,119
run all over the place this weekend, but knowing me,

405
00:19:17,279 --> 00:19:19,880
he probably will. All right, let's see if there's any

406
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,799
interesting questions here, any thoughts on Appalachian State. Here's an

407
00:19:23,799 --> 00:19:27,279
interesting game, Ralph, I've kind of stopped following the Mountain West.

408
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,880
Boise State was one of those Mountain West powerhouses, but

409
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,440
since I left Las Vegas, the Mountain West just hasn't

410
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,599
really been on my radar. This is a pretty sizeable

411
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,200
point spread for a Boise State team that we've kind

412
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,400
of seem not really perform like we expected them to. Right, Remember,

413
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,839
they were the team out of the game of five

414
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:47,880
that was supposed to get into the college football playoff.

415
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, aren't they almost always the favorite going into the preseason.

416
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,079
You know, if you look at the USF game, and

417
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,319
of course we saw USF play well for a couple

418
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,720
more weeks after that, and they had a six yard edge,

419
00:19:58,839 --> 00:20:00,880
but they really did that. You UF game was not

420
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,359
as bad of his loss as the score indicated because

421
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,799
they were minus three turnovers. Then they play Eastern Washington

422
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,119
and Air Force, so you know, you see an offense

423
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,839
that's averaging five hundred and thirty six yards. But the

424
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,200
app State defense, we really don't know how good it is.

425
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,839
You know, on paper, you look at app State's defense

426
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,079
and you're gonna say, wow, they're allowing two hundred and

427
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,359
seventy four yards per game and only two point one

428
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,799
yards per carry. You have a defensive dog getting over

429
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,240
you know, over three scores. How can you not back them? Well,

430
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,079
I can tell you why you don't back them. Their

431
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,920
games are Charlotte, linden Wood and Southern Miss. And oh yeah,

432
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,279
by the way, against Southern Miss, they ended up losing

433
00:20:38,279 --> 00:20:41,720
that game as a sizable favorite thirty eight to twenty two.

434
00:20:42,279 --> 00:20:45,039
So to me, it's a game that I just don't

435
00:20:45,079 --> 00:20:47,880
know what I'm gonna take. I'm gonna watch and learn.

436
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,880
I have no interest betting this Boise State team coming

437
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,119
off a air Force win on the road and a

438
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,359
road game against Notre Dame on deck. So the situation

439
00:20:59,519 --> 00:21:03,079
says State but again against this week of a schedule,

440
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,839
and this week of a schedule, and Gillen and Swann

441
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,960
combined are still only throwing for under sixty percent now

442
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,599
they're playing this defense. So no real opinion on the side.

443
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,039
But I cannot get the Boise State because of the

444
00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:19,519
scheduling spot. I could say this probably could have been

445
00:21:19,559 --> 00:21:22,759
Marco's sandwich game of the week between a between a

446
00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:26,559
conference road game air Force and an game against Notre Dame.

447
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: Very very good point. There's a couple other sandwich spots too.

448
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,640
I think it's Utah State I saw on Twitter is

449
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,720
also in one of those spots. That's a very good

450
00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:37,880
point there, Ralph, all right, I might have to add

451
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:39,240
that one to my list to look at as well.

452
00:21:39,519 --> 00:21:42,880
Let's go to Crypto Parley God. He wants to know

453
00:21:43,079 --> 00:21:46,279
if you like Iowa State or Duke Today, Ralph, I

454
00:21:46,319 --> 00:21:48,960
looked at Arizona had them on my long list as well.

455
00:21:49,599 --> 00:21:52,640
I know Marco broke them down on bet on it

456
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,400
it was a spot where he thought they were a

457
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,279
barking dog. I blinked, it went to four and a half.

458
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,440
I said, all right, maybe this is just something I

459
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,480
can just place stale in the contest.

460
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 5: Well, you know, when you look at injuries, major injuries

461
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:12,720
in college football, and you know, don't discount this and

462
00:22:12,839 --> 00:22:15,519
Jelly's lost to syracuse'es, it could be as big as

463
00:22:15,519 --> 00:22:17,920
any loss of any quarterback. I mean, he's he was

464
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,240
that important to that team, the way they got started.

465
00:22:20,559 --> 00:22:22,599
You know, three hundred and seventy seven yards of Tennessee

466
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,799
is a very good game. Four to sixty one against Connecticut,

467
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,240
six hundred against Colgate. But you know you saw last

468
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,559
week against Clemson four hundred and thirty three yards. So

469
00:22:31,839 --> 00:22:34,839
you know, Ricky Collins comes in now. I don't mind

470
00:22:35,599 --> 00:22:39,000
taking over for an injured quarterback the first game. I

471
00:22:39,079 --> 00:22:42,400
do truly believe in the injury system. When your superstar,

472
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,519
our best player, gets hurt, your team rallies. We often

473
00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:48,400
see defense has rise to the occasion, even though their

474
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,359
defense isn't good, allowing four hundred and fifty five yards

475
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:56,759
they've given up. They've been shredded over over over over

476
00:22:56,799 --> 00:23:01,039
the passing game. They allowed six hundred forty six hundred

477
00:23:01,039 --> 00:23:03,799
and sixty four yards the last two week to Colgate

478
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,680
and the Clemson, and we know how bad Clemson's offense

479
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:07,160
has been.

480
00:23:07,559 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: You look at the Duke defense, not impressed at all.

481
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 5: Along five hundred and thirty five yards last week to

482
00:23:12,519 --> 00:23:16,039
NC State, there were four turnovers plus four. Any college

483
00:23:16,079 --> 00:23:18,240
team that's plus four turnovers is gonna win the game.

484
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,319
That's the reason they won that game. They also lost

485
00:23:21,319 --> 00:23:24,359
the game against Illinois because they were minus five turnovers.

486
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,759
So this line adjustment to me is too high in

487
00:23:27,799 --> 00:23:31,720
this situation with Duke being a road favorite. Remember they

488
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,079
went to Tulan and they couldn't win in that situation.

489
00:23:34,519 --> 00:23:36,279
I actually do lean Syracuse here.

490
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 1: Ooh, that's a really interesting dynamic. I always forget about

491
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,160
the injured player theory because I don't know how to

492
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,119
quantify it, so it makes it a little difficult. But

493
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,240
you're right, it is a good situation, and maybe his

494
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,200
injury is getting just a little overblown. All right, We're

495
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,440
gonna take a couple more questions for Ralph before Steve

496
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,720
Merrill comes in. Kyle Anthony I just logged in. He's

497
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,119
waiting in the wings. If you guys have a UFC question,

498
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,400
make sure you guys drop it in the chat. This

499
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,359
game is disgusting. But why is Northwestern minus six and

500
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:09,200
a half against a more talented UCLA team that just

501
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,079
fired their coach Ralph This is always one of those

502
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,799
interesting thoughts. You know, Art Caesar sent me the list.

503
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:17,880
Oklahoma State was on there. I'm like, of course we

504
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,119
want to play Oklahoma State after they just fired Gundhy,

505
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,680
So why would we not want to play Ucla after

506
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,079
they just fired their coach.

507
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: I'm looking.

508
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 5: My power ratings actually have Northwestern only by four. But

509
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,599
it's a situation where I can't. I can't back Ucla

510
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,319
no way. I actually lean Northwestern with my power ratings

511
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,240
that far off. I usually always lean with that team,

512
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,359
but in this case I can't. Why Well, because you

513
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,519
have a team that traveled at UNLV, gave up thirty

514
00:24:52,559 --> 00:24:56,599
points and lost by seven. Then they lose to New

515
00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:01,000
Mexico and now they're traveling again to Northwestern. Northwestern team,

516
00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:03,400
you got a two lane and you lose. Was it

517
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:04,079
a bad loss?

518
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 2: Yeah?

519
00:25:04,839 --> 00:25:07,759
Speaker 5: But again they were minus five turnovers. You guys got

520
00:25:07,759 --> 00:25:11,960
to remember, if a team is not completely turnover pone,

521
00:25:12,039 --> 00:25:14,839
you basically have to throw out a game the stats.

522
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,480
When your minus five, you just can't get anything going.

523
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,680
Turning the ball over The next week against Western Illinois

524
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,440
they do well. Last week against Oregon, Yes, they lost

525
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:25,640
thirty four to fourteen.

526
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 2: I think Oregon is a top two or three team

527
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:29,559
in the country, no question.

528
00:25:29,799 --> 00:25:32,839
Speaker 5: They were only out gained by sixty yards and they

529
00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:35,640
were minus one turnover. But they rushed for one hundred

530
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,319
and seventy eight yards and four point eight yards per carry.

531
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,799
Speaker 2: Why does that matter? Well, let's see, UCLA's rush defense is.

532
00:25:42,759 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 5: Allowing two hundred and forty four yards per game five

533
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,640
point five yards per carry. Any offense that can run

534
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,640
the ball against this type of defense is going.

535
00:25:52,599 --> 00:25:53,519
Speaker 2: To look much better.

536
00:25:53,799 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 5: Even if Preston Stone is completing under sixty percent so

537
00:25:56,799 --> 00:25:59,240
far this year with a three to six ratio. When

538
00:25:59,279 --> 00:26:01,440
play action is working and you can run the ball,

539
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,720
you know, hinted as a four point nine YPA, porter

540
00:26:05,839 --> 00:26:09,160
has a seven point six YPA. Northwestern wins and covers

541
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:09,640
this game.

542
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 1: All right, We got a couple more questions here in

543
00:26:13,599 --> 00:26:15,960
the chat, Jake wants to know what my three team

544
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,920
money line parlay is. Jake, Jake, come on, you can't

545
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,640
go to my Instagram and watch the video for me.

546
00:26:22,759 --> 00:26:24,559
We put in so much work over there on that

547
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:26,319
I already gave you guys two of the legs. If

548
00:26:26,319 --> 00:26:29,240
you've been paying attention, you know what it is. Let's

549
00:26:29,279 --> 00:26:33,880
see any other questions from the chat. Let's go BYU, Colorado, Ralph.

550
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,440
Here was a spot where I had Colorado kind of

551
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,480
circled and I thought, all right, we're gonna look at

552
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,359
Colorado a little bit better, and then see the face

553
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,200
you just made kind of made the same face. I

554
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,480
was like, Oh, I really like I'm can back some

555
00:26:44,519 --> 00:26:46,799
stinky underdogs. But I don't know if I've met that

556
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,039
bad of underdogs. BYU has looked all right, and some

557
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,880
of their road starts here this season where I thought

558
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,200
maybe they would falter ECU last week, I thought, hey,

559
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,519
this is a bad spot for BYU. Nope, they got

560
00:26:58,559 --> 00:27:02,119
the job done. Talk to me about Colorado BYU. I

561
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,839
know that John Murray did tell me. Let's see BYU

562
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,519
took some sharp action early in the week on Tuesday.

563
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 5: I'm looking something up Kel and I will say this.

564
00:27:14,279 --> 00:27:17,200
You know, so many of us remember Colorado last year

565
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,440
and the offense they had. Well, right now, Kelly, they

566
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:27,119
are number one hundred and fifteen in plays per game run.

567
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,039
Last week against Wyoming they ran the ball thirty one times,

568
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,759
they passed twenty eight, That is fifty nine plays. At

569
00:27:34,839 --> 00:27:38,839
Houston they ran the ball twenty three times, fifty eight plays.

570
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,480
The week before against Delaware, they did open up the

571
00:27:42,519 --> 00:27:44,960
pass game just to get the quarterbacks a little bit

572
00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:46,000
of experience.

573
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 2: But I look at BYU's defense.

574
00:27:48,839 --> 00:27:51,519
Speaker 5: They allowed four hundred four yards to East Carolina on

575
00:27:51,559 --> 00:27:53,519
the road last week and that thirty four to thirteen

576
00:27:53,559 --> 00:27:56,799
win because they were plus two turnovers. But knowing they

577
00:27:56,839 --> 00:27:59,519
allowed four hundred four yards is one thing. But when

578
00:27:59,559 --> 00:28:04,960
you look at Carolina, that is actually seventy eight yards

579
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,920
per game, less than East Carolina is averaging. So they've

580
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,359
held all three foes to a season low. They run

581
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,759
the ball much more than they pass. They're running the

582
00:28:13,759 --> 00:28:15,920
ball one hundred and twenty three times this year, passing

583
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:20,279
for seventy one. Colorado's pace is slow. B Yu's paces slow.

584
00:28:20,559 --> 00:28:23,200
Only way I go in this game is under, and

585
00:28:23,279 --> 00:28:25,839
in this case, I think it's gonna be a close

586
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:28,519
conference game early on.

587
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,759
Speaker 2: I would prefer under first half in this matchup.

588
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 1: All right under first half for Ralph. We're gonna let

589
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,359
Ralph get out of here. He's got a busy Saturday,

590
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,359
hopefully laying by the pool and enjoining himself. I hope

591
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,880
why catching some college football winners, Ralph really quick before

592
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,000
we let you go, can you let everybody know about

593
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:49,160
the Weekend Warrior over atwager talk dot com again.

594
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:54,359
Speaker 5: Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars all of Saturday college football,

595
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,960
all of Sunday NFL, plus if you have a Monday

596
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,039
night NFL play, it gets added. One important note I

597
00:29:01,039 --> 00:29:03,240
want to add, it's only forty nine dollars any camp

598
00:29:03,359 --> 00:29:06,079
or it's available for anyone. But if you are waiting

599
00:29:06,119 --> 00:29:09,440
to next week to sign up for it, sign up

600
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:10,480
at the beginning of the week.

601
00:29:10,519 --> 00:29:10,839
Speaker 2: Guys.

602
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,519
Speaker 5: So as soon as we look the plays, you get them.

603
00:29:13,599 --> 00:29:16,039
You don't have to wait till Saturday. If you buy

604
00:29:16,079 --> 00:29:19,240
it on Tuesday and I start releasing my games on Tuesday,

605
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,759
you'll get those plays with the lines that I want

606
00:29:21,759 --> 00:29:23,400
you to bet them at immediately.

607
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: So next week on the Weekend Warrior, do not wait

608
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:26,680
till the end of the week.

609
00:29:26,839 --> 00:29:29,039
Speaker 5: Find out who you want to sign up for, grab

610
00:29:29,079 --> 00:29:32,799
them early, and make sure you take advantage of those lines.

611
00:29:33,559 --> 00:29:36,039
Speaker 2: Of the best lines available, Ralph.

612
00:29:35,759 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: Is the best at cal Sports LV over on social media.

613
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:43,039
If you guys are looking for any other extra trends

614
00:29:43,039 --> 00:29:44,880
and angles, you guys can also go ahead Ralph.

615
00:29:45,279 --> 00:29:47,759
Speaker 5: I was just gonna say tell ky I Anthony, congratulations

616
00:29:47,759 --> 00:29:48,599
for finding the link.

617
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,799
Speaker 1: But first we're gonna bring in Steve Merrill. Also wt

618
00:29:53,839 --> 00:29:57,119
dot buzz backslash rm is Ralph's homepage over there on

619
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:58,960
wager talk dot com. If you are looking for that

620
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,359
five percent play of his Let me actually do one

621
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,400
quick thing before we bring in Steve Merrill. I'm going

622
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,720
to read you guys the good old Westgates super Gate

623
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,920
super Book Needs once again, just for you guys. Art

624
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,519
said they're gonna need Iowa, they're gonna need Central Michigan,

625
00:30:16,559 --> 00:30:20,720
They're gonna need Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Georgia. The public

626
00:30:20,799 --> 00:30:24,640
is on usc LSU and Notre Dame, and Art's best

627
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,559
bet is Hawaii plus seven. All right, let's bring in

628
00:30:28,599 --> 00:30:31,279
Steve Merrill. He's filling in for Art today at last minute.

629
00:30:31,319 --> 00:30:34,359
I appreciate Steve as always coming in. We saw each

630
00:30:34,359 --> 00:30:36,880
other yesterday. We had an extended version of wager Talk today,

631
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,799
So lots of Stephen Kelly today. Steve, We're gonna get

632
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,599
right into this action. Lots of people have questions. Let's

633
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,119
talk about Arkansas Notre Dame. That is the game that

634
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:51,160
I think is maybe getting a little too overblown.

635
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:51,319
Speaker 5: Now.

636
00:30:51,359 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: I considered Arkansas for my three team money line parlay

637
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:55,920
I did. I thought, Okay, let's look and see if

638
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,599
the Hogs can bounce back. Marco gave out Memphis last

639
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,319
week in a sandwich spot, and I thought, uh, can

640
00:31:02,359 --> 00:31:05,680
Memphis win the game? And they looked ugly mid third quarter,

641
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,279
and all of a sudden, here comes Memphis and then

642
00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:09,680
Arkansas does what they do and they turned the ball

643
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,920
over in the red zone. Notre Dame. Their defense has

644
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,119
some real issues here. Talk to me about Arkansas Notre Dame. Steve.

645
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, First of all, I hosted yesterday for the first

646
00:31:18,799 --> 00:31:20,839
time with you as the guest. Now we've gone back

647
00:31:20,839 --> 00:31:24,119
to normal. Things are normal again. The host has become

648
00:31:24,119 --> 00:31:27,119
the hostess. No, that's not right anyway, the interviewer has

649
00:31:27,119 --> 00:31:29,680
become the interviewee. This is a game I haven't talked

650
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,319
about this week on any videos or show, so I'm

651
00:31:31,319 --> 00:31:32,599
glad you brought it up. It is one of the

652
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,000
better games. It's an early game here at noon Eastern

653
00:31:35,119 --> 00:31:38,960
on ABC National TV. You know, I talked about this

654
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,720
with the Chiefs game yesterday in the Ravens. I always

655
00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:44,079
kind of look to play against the Super Bowl loser. Historically,

656
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:45,960
almost half the time they don't even make the playoffs,

657
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,079
where I think we could take that same angle in

658
00:31:48,119 --> 00:31:50,319
recent years with the National Championship loser. You know, you

659
00:31:50,319 --> 00:31:53,759
saw TCU have that regression. Washington had a losing season

660
00:31:53,839 --> 00:31:56,640
last year, they regress, so Notre Dame would fit the bill.

661
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,759
This year. They had that tough Week one game and

662
00:31:59,799 --> 00:32:02,079
then they had a little bit of a fortunate game

663
00:32:02,119 --> 00:32:03,839
against Texas A and M. That was a tough game

664
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,359
as well. I think this is a play against team

665
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,799
this year, So I have no problem taking Arkansas right now.

666
00:32:08,839 --> 00:32:10,680
I'm calling for the outright upset. Actually, I think the

667
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,759
Hogs win this one straight up at newon Eastern and

668
00:32:12,799 --> 00:32:15,000
that goes off in about a half hour. Not a

669
00:32:15,039 --> 00:32:16,720
game I touched on, but Notre Dame I think is

670
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,880
a bit overrated this season. I think Arkansall maybe a

671
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,599
little bit underrated for the reasons you mentioned.

672
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:25,039
Speaker 1: Yep, with you, I do think that Notre Dame is

673
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,319
a little bit over hyped. Ron's a question about the

674
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,240
Westgate needs. Is it based off sharp action or public action?

675
00:32:31,519 --> 00:32:34,160
I think it's based off total money. So whether they've

676
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,440
got a lot of sharp money bet on one side,

677
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,559
whether they've got a lot of public action bet on

678
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,960
the other. I think it is a based overall need

679
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,279
will be a bigger win for them up at that

680
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,200
point in time. So for example, they need Georgia. I've

681
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,680
seen a lot of books online say they need Alabama,

682
00:32:50,759 --> 00:32:52,759
so kind of take that with what you guys will.

683
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,720
I'm happy that they need Iowa. I always do love

684
00:32:55,759 --> 00:32:58,279
being against the whole world, and of course the whole

685
00:32:58,279 --> 00:33:02,720
world is going to be on Indiana. Let's talk about Washington.

686
00:33:02,759 --> 00:33:04,759
Mel wants to know about Washington. This is a game

687
00:33:04,799 --> 00:33:07,559
I feel like should be a more marquee game, but

688
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,319
it's kind of really flying under the radar, Steve, because

689
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,799
we have such a great slate of games. Ohio State

690
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,720
eight and a half point favorite down to eight over

691
00:33:15,759 --> 00:33:19,160
there at Washington. Kind of one of those spots where

692
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,839
we don't see Ohio State falter often, but do you

693
00:33:22,839 --> 00:33:24,839
think they may have trouble with the Huskies.

694
00:33:25,519 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 6: So I did a standalone video for this game. It's

695
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,279
a three thirty Eastern mid afternoon game, so deep dive

696
00:33:30,319 --> 00:33:32,759
available here on wager Talk TV. And I was conflicted

697
00:33:32,759 --> 00:33:35,200
on this one. I do think Ohio States as good

698
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,200
as anybody in the country, and I mentioned how Washington

699
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,359
regressed last year they had that six and seven season

700
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,759
after making the National Finals. For that reason, though, I

701
00:33:42,759 --> 00:33:44,799
think they could be an upside deal. We saw TCU

702
00:33:44,839 --> 00:33:46,599
do that the year before, as I also mentioned, they

703
00:33:46,599 --> 00:33:50,000
actually played better. Since the problem is, I do think

704
00:33:50,039 --> 00:33:52,480
Ohio State's a better team, the much better offensive team.

705
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,200
My ten thousand game simulation favors Ohio State only six

706
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,240
in this game, so the current line of eight. As

707
00:33:58,319 --> 00:34:00,599
you mentioned, I do think there is some value with

708
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,640
the home dog here. I don't know if I'm a

709
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,039
call for the outright upset, but one catalyst that could

710
00:34:05,079 --> 00:34:08,199
come into play is the fact this is the first

711
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,639
true start on the road for a very young quarterback.

712
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,079
So just saying this might be a difficult spot in

713
00:34:15,119 --> 00:34:17,199
a housto environment, I think Washington can hang within the

714
00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:18,280
eight points.

715
00:34:18,639 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I may end up getting to the window with

716
00:34:20,559 --> 00:34:22,599
Washington and we're gonna find out here. Steve, this is

717
00:34:22,639 --> 00:34:25,400
the problem. I have started betting so much later in

718
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,320
the week because I feel like I'm getting better of

719
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,719
the information and that's what I prefer now as opposed

720
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,519
to trying to beat the market. Right. And also, you

721
00:34:34,559 --> 00:34:36,280
can't get down as much earlier in the week, so

722
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,679
then you're betting Summitt this number, and then the market

723
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:39,920
moves in next thing, you know, You're trying to get

724
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,079
another five hundred or a dime down. And it just

725
00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:43,960
is one of those things where I'm like, you know what,

726
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,119
I'm just gonna wait Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then Saturday

727
00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:48,599
we get all those needs from the West Gate. I

728
00:34:48,599 --> 00:34:50,880
get some other information and I like to tail some

729
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,400
sharp friends of mine. Let's talk about a couple of

730
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:54,960
the games that you like. I know you did a

731
00:34:55,079 --> 00:34:57,800
fade the public video over there on the way to

732
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,679
Talk YouTube channel right after we got done film Wager

733
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,480
Talk today, So that is up. What else do you

734
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,400
have up over there? And then what other games should

735
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:06,039
we be looking at?

736
00:35:06,599 --> 00:35:09,079
Speaker 6: Yeah, the NFL videos are all locked and loaded. I

737
00:35:09,119 --> 00:35:11,880
don't know if they it's actually cool. The Insider's got

738
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,679
a sneak peek at the Faded the Public video last

739
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,159
night before it goes live this afternoon, So that's another reason,

740
00:35:16,159 --> 00:35:18,679
by the way, to be an insider for two ninety nine,

741
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,119
not two n two dollars in ninety nine cents, less

742
00:35:21,119 --> 00:35:24,480
than three dollars a month. I think it's wt dot

743
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,639
buzz slash insiders. I believe it's the shortcut. But they

744
00:35:27,639 --> 00:35:29,719
got the sneak peak twelve hours sooner than everybody else

745
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,320
in I Faded the Public video that will be up

746
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,519
in a couple hours for everybody on YouTube TV. The

747
00:35:34,599 --> 00:35:37,320
college football Top twenty five video is up there right now.

748
00:35:37,679 --> 00:35:40,920
Six games in depth, so games we haven't talked about

749
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,320
here on that video as well, and then some standalone

750
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,920
videos they had Ohio State game I did, and some

751
00:35:46,039 --> 00:35:47,960
other ones. So hey, it's all free right here on

752
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,400
wager Talk TV. And oh, by the way, Kelly bonus

753
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,280
free play on my page right now. I don't do

754
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,719
a lot of totals in college football this early, but

755
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,639
I have my first free total of the season up

756
00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:58,320
for a night game to night on Saturday, So go

757
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,079
get that on my page right now. College football free

758
00:36:01,079 --> 00:36:03,960
play total my top total of the week. Free Steve Merrill,

759
00:36:04,159 --> 00:36:07,000
Wager Talk dot Com and get there quicker, WT dot Buzz,

760
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:08,880
slash sm Love.

761
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: That, Love that, Love that All right, guys, if you

762
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,000
have a question for Steve dropping in the chat, we

763
00:36:13,039 --> 00:36:14,599
got KYLEI, Anthony wait in the wings. We got a

764
00:36:14,639 --> 00:36:16,840
couple of you FC questions for him. I know he's

765
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,800
going to touch on a pair of fights before we

766
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,079
get to kickoff. I don't see any more questions. Ralph

767
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:24,880
did a really great job. I know Steve filled in

768
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,320
last minute there when I found out that Art wasn't

769
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:31,840
coming in. I'm using Steve's fade the public techniques to

770
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,039
fade my wife so I can watch the games.

771
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, you gotta be careful with that. Like we always say,

772
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,639
you don't always fade the public. Sometimes the public is

773
00:36:39,679 --> 00:36:42,639
what right. Wives are normally never right. But you got

774
00:36:42,679 --> 00:36:44,320
to tell him they're always right. So that's how you

775
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,800
fade the public there. It depends. Sure, she's a lovely lady,

776
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,119
so sounds fantastic. I will say this, Kelly. You talked

777
00:36:52,119 --> 00:36:55,079
about the needs with the Westgate though. Yeah, it's one

778
00:36:55,159 --> 00:36:59,039
hundred money, and I think people forget that the sharps

779
00:36:59,039 --> 00:37:01,159
bet ten to twenty times more than the public. Right,

780
00:37:01,199 --> 00:37:03,199
So when I'm doing the public data for my videos,

781
00:37:03,199 --> 00:37:06,679
I'm looking at ticket counts. I'm looking at consensus contests

782
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:08,880
like where a lot of squares are playing, and most

783
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:10,440
of the public money in the NFL does give it

784
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,039
on Sundays Ace and I talked about that yesterday, so

785
00:37:13,559 --> 00:37:15,440
you know, I'm doing a little foreshadowing when I'm doing

786
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,639
the video on Friday night into Saturday. But yeah, look,

787
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,679
you know the sharp spent ten to twenty times more

788
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,280
than the public. So ticket counting money are two different things.

789
00:37:23,679 --> 00:37:25,280
And when you see a high ticket count of one

790
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:26,960
game but a high money count on the other side,

791
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,039
that actually sometimes is a sharp square divide that you

792
00:37:29,079 --> 00:37:29,960
want to pay attention to.

793
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 1: So also interesting, Steve in this state's way back to

794
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,440
when we had the proxy service, and even before then,

795
00:37:35,519 --> 00:37:38,480
when I was in the contest. You know, back in

796
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,639
my early days in Vegas, if you faded the top

797
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,159
five selections correct, yeah, for years it was money and

798
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,880
it's been money. And not only the Westgate Superbook but

799
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,719
also the Circuit Contest. That just had me think the

800
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,159
top five most selected super Contest college teams in Week five,

801
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:56,920
Ole Miss with two hundred and fifty four, Washington plus

802
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,039
eight with two hundred and twenty one, Oregon plus three

803
00:37:59,079 --> 00:38:02,559
and a half hit v R. Sait he thought Pit

804
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,239
was the public underdog today with two hundred and four selections,

805
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,000
and then Georgia minus three with one hundred and ninety one.

806
00:38:09,159 --> 00:38:12,920
So very interesting list there to see who I would say,

807
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:14,639
if you're going to spend five hundred dollars in a

808
00:38:14,639 --> 00:38:17,119
college football cant it's either A you got to think

809
00:38:17,159 --> 00:38:19,280
you know a little bit of something right right, or

810
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,719
B you just don't care about money and you're just

811
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:22,920
trying to have fun for the season.

812
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,559
Speaker 6: Yeah, and what essentially about the Circle One especially is

813
00:38:25,599 --> 00:38:27,199
that's sharper than all of them. I think, you know

814
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:28,960
the Westgate has been over years, but you get a

815
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:30,840
lot of public money in the Westgate contest because the

816
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,039
entry cost was lower, like you said, and you had

817
00:38:33,079 --> 00:38:36,079
more entries. But yeah, for decades, if you faded that

818
00:38:36,159 --> 00:38:38,199
number one pick, especially in the west Gate, you've made

819
00:38:38,199 --> 00:38:40,920
money every season. And something you gotta be careful with

820
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,519
the contest is a lot of times they're playing stale lines,

821
00:38:43,599 --> 00:38:45,119
so you have to look and say, well, is this

822
00:38:45,159 --> 00:38:47,800
one heavy because the line is one to two points

823
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,960
better than what the market line is. But even then

824
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,320
it probably loses more times than it wins. It really

825
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,960
is an amazing phenomenon, and it goes back to something

826
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,119
that you and I know, Kelly. The odds makers aren't

827
00:38:57,159 --> 00:38:59,079
that wrong, not too often, and if they are, they're

828
00:38:59,079 --> 00:39:01,039
not off by more than a couple of points. And

829
00:39:01,079 --> 00:39:03,039
you talked about playing later in the week versus early

830
00:39:03,079 --> 00:39:05,559
in the week. Yes, the lines are sharper later in

831
00:39:05,599 --> 00:39:07,280
the week, but you have to decide at what type

832
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:08,880
of cap you want to be. I'm not trying to

833
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,719
chase numbers on Sunday night Monday morning. It's just not

834
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:15,480
my style either. But sometimes, like acid I talked about yesterday,

835
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:16,760
on Friday, you got to stay off a game with

836
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,880
them line moves against. You don't have that value anymore.

837
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:22,559
On Friday, you've got to pass. But the fade in

838
00:39:22,559 --> 00:39:24,360
the public does win more than it loses. And by

839
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,840
the way, all three weeks this year in my NFL video,

840
00:39:27,159 --> 00:39:28,960
you have made money if you faded the public plays

841
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,760
I've given out. It's now eleven to five and one

842
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,360
so far after three weeks, and I had mentioned it

843
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,159
the first couple of weeks I mentioned in the video

844
00:39:35,199 --> 00:39:37,440
this weekend, which means a public will probably go like

845
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:38,840
four and oh, we'll see what happens.

846
00:39:39,119 --> 00:39:42,519
Speaker 1: No, no, no, this is this is still blood bath weeks.

847
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,039
Speaker 6: Three or four years. You are pretty good ugly underdogs

848
00:39:45,039 --> 00:39:46,679
like Ralph of that oh and three chart the other

849
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:48,480
day about how on the blind those teams have made

850
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:49,960
money for a decade now in the NFL.

851
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, Steve, we're going to get you out

852
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,599
of here. We're gonna get to talking UFC. We have

853
00:39:55,679 --> 00:39:58,760
almost thirty five hundred of you guys watching live. Congrats

854
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,039
to all the new members joining here on the Wager

855
00:40:01,079 --> 00:40:04,840
Talk Insiders, WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders. As Steve mentioned,

856
00:40:05,119 --> 00:40:07,599
just two dollars and ninety nine cents to join. You

857
00:40:07,639 --> 00:40:09,880
guys are gonna get early access to videos. You guys

858
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,440
are going to get early access to free steam rooms,

859
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,239
and we've got a lot more planned as we start

860
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,840
to build that membership program. Steve, I hope you have

861
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,239
a very profitable weekend, and I'm sure we'll see you

862
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:25,880
here on last call in the near future. Kyle Anthony,

863
00:40:26,159 --> 00:40:29,159
he figured out the link. I'm so happy, Kyle is

864
00:40:29,199 --> 00:40:31,599
here and he knows I'm gonna bust his balls about it,

865
00:40:31,599 --> 00:40:33,400
because that's what I do here at wager Talk.

866
00:40:33,639 --> 00:40:39,159
Speaker 7: Where I you you gave it. You gave like a hint.

867
00:40:39,639 --> 00:40:44,079
And then I scrolled, I looked around. I found Dan

868
00:40:44,159 --> 00:40:47,679
Alexander's name. I messaged him and I asked him where

869
00:40:47,679 --> 00:40:48,000
it was.

870
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,679
Speaker 1: Wow, we're going, you know, dance out the producer today

871
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,400
and today's supposed to be his day off. We actually

872
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:57,599
pay someone else to fill in for him, so you

873
00:40:57,679 --> 00:40:59,239
can have the weekends off, so if he wants to

874
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:03,079
go back to working weekends, I am full on.

875
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 7: He definitely gave it to me, ferv like, dude, this

876
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,159
is where it is, bro like this, this is where

877
00:41:09,199 --> 00:41:10,920
this shit is. Like I was like, okay, all right,

878
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,119
I got it. Kelly, just Kelly Stonewall to me. I'll

879
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:15,599
Dan was a little bit nicer.

880
00:41:15,599 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 4: I'll take it. I'll take yeah, of course, and.

881
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,559
Speaker 1: It's gonna be nicer. That's the problem. Somebody's got to

882
00:41:19,599 --> 00:41:21,159
be the bad tap here. And we're gonna talk to

883
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,239
UFC and we've got some questions from our audience. Kyle,

884
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:26,559
I'm gonna have you go into your first fight right

885
00:41:26,599 --> 00:41:29,719
out of the gate. The joke is here. Anytime my

886
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,840
host I show with Kyle, he always picks the hardest

887
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,800
names for me to try to pronounce. So I'm just

888
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,679
gonna concede and let Kyle talk about this first fight.

889
00:41:38,159 --> 00:41:38,559
Speaker 2: All right.

890
00:41:38,599 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 7: So the first one we will talk about is the

891
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:44,760
main event, and we're gonna talk Carlos Ulberg and Dominic Reyes.

892
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,119
So in this fight here, first, when you look at

893
00:41:47,159 --> 00:41:51,039
Dominic Reyis, I mean back twenty twenty, he went out there,

894
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,000
he almost beat the goat of the UFC, the goat

895
00:41:54,039 --> 00:41:57,039
of MMA, John Jones. It was a debatable fight, a

896
00:41:57,199 --> 00:42:00,000
very close fight. Some would argue that he won three two.

897
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,440
MMA judging is MMA judging, and they gave it to

898
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,239
John Jones. And after that fight, you know, the the

899
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,280
title fight hangover for him was about as bad as

900
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:13,280
it gets for Reys because he went out there, everyone thought, wow,

901
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,800
you compete with John Jones, and then he gets knocked

902
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,639
out three straight times in absolutely brutal, brutal fashion. He

903
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:23,400
got knocked out against Yan Blojovich, Ury Prahashka, Ryan Span

904
00:42:23,519 --> 00:42:25,719
I mean, not a good look overall. When you're looking

905
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,079
at really the competition level is there, the power is there,

906
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,199
but the chin may not be there. Then he comes

907
00:42:31,199 --> 00:42:34,119
back after a two year layoff, and now Reyes is

908
00:42:34,119 --> 00:42:35,800
on a three fight winning streak, and it looks good,

909
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,159
you know, on paper, he went out there, knocks out

910
00:42:38,159 --> 00:42:40,960
a couple guys. But the big question, and really the

911
00:42:41,039 --> 00:42:43,239
question I think that anyone who's betting this fight is

912
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,800
where's Reys's chin? And those three fights, you know, they

913
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:48,320
kind of I think gave a little bit of like

914
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:49,519
a false.

915
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,039
Speaker 4: Sense of security because in order to test.

916
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 7: A durability, you need to get hit, and those three

917
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,719
fights that he came back, he didn't really get hit.

918
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:00,000
You know, you have Dustin Jacobe landed only six significant

919
00:43:00,079 --> 00:43:03,199
strikes before he got knocked out. Nikita Krailoff landed four

920
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,639
significant strikes before he got knocked out, and pillow Fist

921
00:43:06,679 --> 00:43:09,320
Anthony Smith landed twenty one significant strikes and then he

922
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,719
got finished. And credit to Reys, guy's got power, there's

923
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,800
no doubt, but the chin still is in question. And

924
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,480
even his knockout against Ryan Span where he lost, Ryan

925
00:43:19,519 --> 00:43:22,320
Span landed a jab and it knocked him out and

926
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,480
that was the eighth strike of the fight. So this

927
00:43:25,599 --> 00:43:28,000
to me is a spot where really you've got Carlos

928
00:43:28,079 --> 00:43:31,840
Uber coming in an elite level kickboxer, great distance management,

929
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,599
great at range, much more technical striker between the two,

930
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,079
I think has got the power as well. And I

931
00:43:38,119 --> 00:43:40,039
don't really see this fight going to the ground. I

932
00:43:40,039 --> 00:43:42,920
don't see takedowns. I don't see Rayas looking for these takedowns.

933
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,960
I think this plays out on the feat, which again

934
00:43:45,039 --> 00:43:48,360
allows this opportunity for a knockout to materialize. And I

935
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,159
do think this five rounder is really going to be

936
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,599
the part where you're gonna see really Ulbert Early maybe

937
00:43:54,599 --> 00:43:56,840
pick him apart, but land something big here. And the

938
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,480
one thing we do know, one thing we do know

939
00:43:59,599 --> 00:44:00,960
is you can't fixed class chance.

940
00:44:01,159 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 4: You just can't.

941
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,800
Speaker 7: There is that there's never been a moment where we've

942
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,400
seen a guy, Hey, this guy always gets knocked out,

943
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:06,800
can't take a punch, and all of a sudden he

944
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:07,519
could take a punch.

945
00:44:07,599 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 4: I don't think that's gonna happen here.

946
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 7: I think that Uberg lands a big shot, gets the knockout,

947
00:44:12,039 --> 00:44:13,920
so get him off the minus two fifty number. You

948
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,239
can get Uberg by knockout sitting room minus one twenty five.

949
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,360
I like the spot, and I think that he wins

950
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,159
this and ends up fighting for the title.

951
00:44:21,199 --> 00:44:22,760
Speaker 2: Next, Kyle, we.

952
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 1: Got a question in the chat. Is there a reason

953
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:27,679
to think Uberg will not won't win by finish?

954
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:28,199
Speaker 2: Excuse me?

955
00:44:29,039 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 7: Well, the only thing that that I look at with

956
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,880
that is that Uber could maybe play it a little bit,

957
00:44:35,039 --> 00:44:37,719
you know, little patient, not be not look to get

958
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,639
into the striking zone that you're gonna see. Of Reyes

959
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,159
obviously has power. He's a guy that can bring that.

960
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,559
But I think that if he does, it's pitter patter

961
00:44:45,639 --> 00:44:48,960
shots on the outside. But this is Ulberg in Australia,

962
00:44:49,039 --> 00:44:52,320
on home soil. I think that he gets this knockout,

963
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,480
does it in spectacular fashion.

964
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 4: And then you know, fights for the title.

965
00:44:57,559 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 1: All right, awesome, talk to me about the UFC per correct, Yes, okay,

966
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,400
So everybody in here is hanging out for college football.

967
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:07,079
They want early NFL, but we moved you over here

968
00:45:07,079 --> 00:45:12,320
to last call because I think UFC recreational betters, myself included.

969
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,559
We're not talking about UFC early in the week. We're

970
00:45:14,599 --> 00:45:16,719
not you well, like we want to know, Okay, it

971
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,400
starts at this time. I want to get a little

972
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,280
bit of action down while I've got my college football

973
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:22,840
on one TV and I've got the fight on my laptop,

974
00:45:23,039 --> 00:45:25,079
talk to me about where they can watch this and

975
00:45:25,119 --> 00:45:26,679
where they can catch it, because it's on the other

976
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:27,599
side of the world.

977
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 7: Right, So so a lot of times these, especially when

978
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,360
you're talking about somebody that are in China, they're starting

979
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:34,719
at ten am. There's this one's at pert so it

980
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,639
is starting at seven. So we are getting the right

981
00:45:37,679 --> 00:45:40,119
time frame here. It is going to be on ESPN Plus,

982
00:45:40,199 --> 00:45:41,760
so you're going to be able to see that, and

983
00:45:42,119 --> 00:45:44,039
you know, I'm sure it's every single sports book you

984
00:45:44,079 --> 00:45:45,360
go to will be having that.

985
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 4: But yeah, this fight, we.

986
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,079
Speaker 7: Will go a little bit longer. It will be from

987
00:45:48,079 --> 00:45:52,119
probably seven Eastern to probably one in the morning. So

988
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,639
a lot of betting opportunities. I always talk about that

989
00:45:54,679 --> 00:45:56,599
each week. It doesn't have to be the highest level

990
00:45:56,599 --> 00:45:58,519
of fight. I know the sexy ones people want to bet.

991
00:45:58,559 --> 00:46:01,199
Next week is UFC three to one. It's a massive car.

992
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:02,239
We're gonna talk about.

993
00:46:02,039 --> 00:46:02,519
Speaker 4: That next week.

994
00:46:02,559 --> 00:46:05,320
Speaker 7: But this is a spot here where there's opportunities, big

995
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:06,599
money every week on UFC.

996
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,679
Speaker 4: That's why it's year round, That's what his opportunities.

997
00:46:09,119 --> 00:46:11,280
Speaker 1: And that's why Kyle's here on last call because we

998
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:14,880
don't care. We want to make money that arm here anyway,

999
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,400
So we're looking at Olbert here early on. And who

1000
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,000
else are we looking at in another fight, Kyle, So you.

1001
00:46:21,039 --> 00:46:23,519
Speaker 4: Never fight you were talking about is Josiah Mussasa. He

1002
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:28,719
is sitting around minus one minus one sixty minus went seventy.

1003
00:46:29,519 --> 00:46:32,920
Other side Colby fifties, he's sitting around plus plus one

1004
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,239
thirty plus one forty. And this is a spot where

1005
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:37,280
you look at Musasa.

1006
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 7: And he's a guy that came into Data Whites Contender Series,

1007
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,079
had a lot of hype behind him. You know, he's

1008
00:46:42,079 --> 00:46:45,280
seven and oh seven knockouts, six in the first round.

1009
00:46:45,519 --> 00:46:47,559
Speaker 4: He's got the cool nickname, the Knockout Wizard.

1010
00:46:47,559 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 7: I mean, he looks the part, and you know, he's explosive,

1011
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:52,400
he's got power. There's a lot of great things that

1012
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,760
he does do. But in the last two fights that

1013
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,599
he had I thought were just really underwhelming. In his

1014
00:46:57,679 --> 00:46:59,920
Data White Contender Series fight, it was a fight where

1015
00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:02,159
he won but he won't buy split decision, and it

1016
00:47:02,199 --> 00:47:04,719
was also a fight I thought he clearly lost. He

1017
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,519
was outstruck in every single round. He was taken down

1018
00:47:07,599 --> 00:47:10,079
four times and his opponent had four minutes of control time.

1019
00:47:10,079 --> 00:47:12,440
And I think that's just a really bad showing for

1020
00:47:12,559 --> 00:47:14,559
him for a spot where it really looked like a

1021
00:47:14,559 --> 00:47:17,480
smash spot. Still, the UFC signs him, and his most

1022
00:47:17,519 --> 00:47:19,840
recent fight was even worse, where he came in as

1023
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:23,199
a minus seven fifty favorite. A lot of hypes still

1024
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:26,719
was around this guy, and he was fighting Carlos Vira,

1025
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:30,679
who is a jiu jitsu guy, grappler, doesn't have much power,

1026
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,960
you know, very you know Peter patter shots, and this

1027
00:47:34,039 --> 00:47:36,440
is where he came into this fight. Vera knocks him

1028
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:38,199
down in the first round and submits him in the

1029
00:47:38,199 --> 00:47:41,559
first round, and again another terrible showing. Still we're getting

1030
00:47:41,599 --> 00:47:44,239
here an opportunity where he's he's still a favorite, you know,

1031
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,280
And I think this line is wrong. I do think

1032
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,960
that Colby has the ability here should be the favorite here.

1033
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 4: And also you look at what he can do. He's

1034
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:52,760
more well rounded.

1035
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:56,559
Speaker 7: He's training partners with Alexander Volkanovski, so you know they're

1036
00:47:56,599 --> 00:47:58,800
gonna have a really good camp behind him, a really good.

1037
00:47:58,719 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 4: Game plan behind him.

1038
00:48:00,119 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 7: Also, his debut, I think is skewing this line a

1039
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,639
little bit because he came in on short notice against

1040
00:48:05,679 --> 00:48:08,480
Tiporia's brother, on short notice, no camp, and still had

1041
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:10,400
a good account of himself. He lost the fight, but

1042
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,079
he still had a very good account of himself. And

1043
00:48:12,119 --> 00:48:14,480
I think this is a spot here where you know, yes,

1044
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,440
you know, Musasa is going to have that explosiveness, that power,

1045
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,320
but I think he's very raw, he's very green. He

1046
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,119
makes a lot of mistakes here, and I think the

1047
00:48:22,159 --> 00:48:25,239
takedowns will be there for Colby. So I think Cooby

1048
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:26,920
can get this job done here. I think that the

1049
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,559
plus money number is still nice. It's starting to tighten

1050
00:48:29,599 --> 00:48:31,400
a little bit, but I still like him here at

1051
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:33,039
the plus one thirty plus one forty.

1052
00:48:33,599 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 1: Now you're speaking my language, Kyle. We know I love

1053
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,599
those nice little underdogs. All right, we've got about twelve

1054
00:48:39,599 --> 00:48:43,039
minutes until kickoff here. Anything else you want to talk

1055
00:48:43,079 --> 00:48:45,840
to our audience about UFC Perth related.

1056
00:48:46,199 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 7: Yeah, I can give you another plus money we can

1057
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,440
talk about here, and the other one's going to be

1058
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:54,400
just in Taffa between Louis Sutherland. Now, a lot of

1059
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,559
times when I come on these shows, I'm breaking down styles,

1060
00:48:58,039 --> 00:49:00,039
you know, analysis.

1061
00:48:59,199 --> 00:49:01,320
Speaker 4: You know, skill, all these things that we just talked

1062
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,440
about last flight. This fight is not that.

1063
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:07,639
Speaker 7: This is two sloppy heavyweights who really are just gonna

1064
00:49:07,679 --> 00:49:09,920
swing in the middle, They're gonna throw it looks like

1065
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,599
this is you know, that's heavily tilted towards the under

1066
00:49:12,599 --> 00:49:15,159
in this spot here. And you know, Sutherland's a guy

1067
00:49:15,159 --> 00:49:17,239
who I don't think is very good. You know, most

1068
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:19,079
of the guys, you know, this is UFC debut, most

1069
00:49:19,119 --> 00:49:21,760
of the guys that he fought, you know, we're part

1070
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,159
time garbage men on the side. Now he's fighting UFC

1071
00:49:25,199 --> 00:49:28,400
caliber guy. Justin Taffa is not the greatest fighter by

1072
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,639
any means, but he is a guy that does have

1073
00:49:30,679 --> 00:49:32,400
a lot of power. Is gonna be able to have

1074
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,760
the faster hands, be good leg kicks, and I think

1075
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:36,519
he could mix it up a little bit. And I

1076
00:49:36,519 --> 00:49:39,440
think that that Sutherland's gonna just he kind of moves forward,

1077
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:42,159
just throws random wild shots here and this is the

1078
00:49:42,199 --> 00:49:45,039
spot where Justin Taffa, out of his seven victories, all

1079
00:49:45,079 --> 00:49:47,960
come by knockout. Here, I think Tafa gets this job done.

1080
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:49,639
I think there's a possibility to get it within the

1081
00:49:49,639 --> 00:49:52,159
first or second round. But if you're just looking Tafa

1082
00:49:52,199 --> 00:49:55,079
by knockout, that's sitting around plus one twenty five plus

1083
00:49:55,119 --> 00:49:57,440
one thirty roughly around there. And I think that's how

1084
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,360
he does it here another guy home Soil guy. I

1085
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:01,880
think he gets the crowd going with that one.

1086
00:50:02,679 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: I love those plus money plays from Kyle Anthony at

1087
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,880
Kyle Anthony UFC. You guys can catch him there over

1088
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,320
on social media. Kyle, let everybody know what you've got

1089
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,880
up for today over at wager talk dot com.

1090
00:50:13,519 --> 00:50:15,079
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I have a couple of plays off.

1091
00:50:15,079 --> 00:50:16,800
Speaker 7: I'm actually gonna be adding I have three plays in

1092
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,880
there right now, gonna be adding probably five, Probably have

1093
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:22,079
two more before we get in there. To your point,

1094
00:50:22,079 --> 00:50:24,639
before Kelly, the weigh ins were like midnight and there

1095
00:50:24,679 --> 00:50:26,599
was everything's a little different and changed, so normally I'd

1096
00:50:26,599 --> 00:50:28,119
like to take a look at that before I find

1097
00:50:28,199 --> 00:50:30,400
life of my plays. But I do have a four

1098
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:33,719
percent play since twenty twenty three hitting at seventy one percent.

1099
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:36,800
Feeling good about that one here. But again, next weekend

1100
00:50:37,039 --> 00:50:39,559
Monster Card gonna have a lot of plays, so check

1101
00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:40,920
it out wager talk dot com.

1102
00:50:41,039 --> 00:50:43,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, next weeknd Kyle's gonna be joining us here in

1103
00:50:43,199 --> 00:50:45,880
the last twenty minutes or so of last call, taking

1104
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:49,800
us up till kickoff. Talking about all those UFC plays

1105
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:51,960
that maybe we need to be including in our college

1106
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:55,639
football watching you know, just telling you guys, money is money.

1107
00:50:55,679 --> 00:50:58,280
I love it. The UFC is one of my favorite sports.

1108
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,880
It probably saved me in the summer of twenty twenty

1109
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:05,840
from going absolutely and utterly puffs. All right, Kyle, appreciate

1110
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:09,199
you coming on. Appreciate everybody in the comment section. Shout

1111
00:51:09,199 --> 00:51:11,280
out to all of our new insiders that joined today,

1112
00:51:11,519 --> 00:51:15,760
wt Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders. You guys are in for

1113
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:17,199
a real treat. We're gonna try to get you, guys

1114
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:20,920
some of that first and foremost information that you get

1115
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:22,679
here on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel. Maybe it's

1116
00:51:22,679 --> 00:51:24,599
a couple hours before, maybe it's a day before, but

1117
00:51:24,639 --> 00:51:27,360
we are going to take care of you guys. All Right, guys,

1118
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:31,000
I hope you have a wonderfull weekend. Aeron Epsie will

1119
00:51:31,039 --> 00:51:34,119
be back tomorrow with Jannie the Greek, John Murray, Carmine Bianco,

1120
00:51:34,519 --> 00:51:37,920
Joe Madden will be here Monday night before that doubleheader kickoff,

1121
00:51:38,119 --> 00:51:43,599
hosting with the Prez. Have a great Saturday, Sunday and Monday, guys.

1122
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:45,800
Good luck cash them, don't trash them.