Speaker 1: Welcome in to wager Talk's last Call. I am Kelly
Stewart and we have a star studded lineup for you
guys today. We're gonna start off with Yannie the Greek.
We've got Ralph Michaels, Steve Merrill, and Kyle Anthony if
he can find the log and link, might join us
to talk about you. FC Perth. We're gonna find out today.
Up next on last call, I've got the needs from
the Westgates super Book. We'll get to you here in
a minute, but first I want to hear from VR.
I know he's got a busy day ahead of him.
He's got a new background. It looks beautiful there in
Las Vegas. Welcome in, Good morning, VR. Always appreciate you
hanging out with us here early on the West Coast. VR,
we got you muted. Let me get you unmuted there. Nope,
we still still muted. We gotta we gotta redo that.
I don't know how you got muted, but I can't
unmute you. I apologize for some reason on the back end.
I can't do that. It's uh and the bottom the
bottom corner there for you hit the mike button while
VR is doing that, guys, while we get him unmuted,
I'm gonna read you, guys some of the sharp stuff
here from the Westgate super Book. We'll go right into it,
and I'm going to say right now, I love this
first one from what from art at the Westgate. Iowa
is going to be a big need Iowa, if you
guys remember, is in my three team moneyline parlay for today.
I am very excited about the Iowa team. I think
this is a really great spot for them and their
defense to maybe stifle that freight train that is Indiana.
They also need Central Michigan, Kansas, Oklahoma State. Remember they
just fired their head coach, Mike Gundy. And this one
surprised me. He said, they are going to need Georgia.
Speaker 2: He said.
Speaker 1: Some sharp plays that are worth noting Bowling Green that
got bet at plus ten, Pittsburgh plus four and a half,
Minnesota minus four and a half now up to minus
five and a half, New Mexico got steemed is fourteen
up to fifteen and a half, and Marshall was a
pick the three public plays of the day over at
the Westgate Super Book. USC glad to hear that, because
we've got Illinois in our three team money line parlay
as well. LSU gonna be interesting. I did play Old
Miss and a couple of my Westgate college football contests,
and then Notre Dame interesting one there. I liked Arkansas
earlier in the week and missed the number there, so
I elected to stay off. And Art says his best
bet today is Hawaii and even included the cute little
rainbow emoji with the football. All right, VR, I think
you are unmuted. You are ready to go to brand
new setup. I know you just moved in the last
like forty eight hours since I saw you.
Speaker 3: I have a task rabbit lady coming over to organize
the room later today, so.
Speaker 1: That is a wonderful idea. You've got way too much
stuff going on, so we're gonna let you do what
you do best and tell us all of the stuff
that you've seen so far for this week in college football.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Kell.
Speaker 1: Dive right in.
Speaker 2: I know you just talked about Pittsburgh. They're getting hit
right now.
Speaker 3: Be cautious because I saw two way action on that
earlier in the week, and Pittsburgh seems to be the
public side I'm seeing in the back end as well, now,
some of the higher marquee games that I know everybody's
interested in Alabama and Georgia. Here's what I got there.
Alabama got steamed at plus three. Alabama also got steamed
on the money line and also the under under fifty
three as well. So they're on Alabama and they're on
the under in that game. Penn State Oregon, they laid
the three and a half with the Penn State side. Mississippi,
we talked about that. Mississippi got bet on the money line.
I saw more money line sharp action than actually on
the point spread on the Mississippi side. So as far
as the big games go, that's what we're seeing there. Now.
Some of the other steam plays. We could talk about
Ohio State, and I know it looks public as well
because they're teasing it their money parlaying it as well.
But I did see Ohio State get bet by Bettingston
Degains as well, and they went under fifty two in
the Ohio State and Washington game. I personally think Ohio
State's the best team in college football. A couple more
college football moves for you, UH one twenty five under
sixty four and a half, Notre Dame Arkansas under sixty
four and a half. I'm seeing one sided public money over.
They are blindly betting that one over. And you're seeing
a lot of sharp betters picking off any rogue numbers
to go under in that Notre Dame Arkansas game, Stanford
minus one and a half and two Colorado late game
picking off sevens. So you're seeing one sided action on
the favorite there. That's why you're seeing six and a half.
But they know they could limit risk. All they have
to do is go to seven. There'll be more than
an f Sharp's they're ready to grab it with Colorado.
So pay attention to Joad's logic screen, or like I said,
at the very least, the wager talk screen to see
what the books are doing with that game.
Speaker 2: Soul State, I'm sure.
Speaker 4: Others spoke about that.
Speaker 3: They got stayed from four three and a half three,
So Arkansas State getting a lot of love, Memphis minus
thirteen and like I always do, one added game over
forty seven and a half and forty eight stats in
and Dayton and that's yeah, pretty much it. I mean,
there's a lot of college football, but those are confirmed
without resistance, not scalpable, not being set up for any
middles or anything like that.
Speaker 1: All right, Vereron, Let's take a couple of questions here
from the audience. Jacob McNeill wants to know what are
you seeing on the Texas A and M Auburn game?
Any sharp sided action? I know Marco gave out Texas
A and M. He said it was his trap game
this week on the college football edition of bet on It.
I kind of leaned Auburn, but back to back road
games kind of enough to push me away. I did
end up playing them in a couple of college contests.
Your thoughts on this game or have you seen anything
prominent in the back ends.
Speaker 3: No, I haven't seen any sharp backs. I'm even looking
again now and hadn't seen anything on that side.
Speaker 2: I did see the under.
Speaker 3: The underget steam from a group, and that's opposite the
public too. That the one sided action that sticks out
on that game is over money from the public.
Speaker 4: I'm seeing good two way action.
Speaker 3: You're always going to get a little heavier money on
the favor, especially when you add in moneyline parlays, when
you add in teasers.
Speaker 4: But nothing really.
Speaker 3: Sticking out except for that over from the public, sharp
under from the wise guys.
Speaker 1: All right, I know tomorrow you're going to have a
edition of the Steam Room out. Can you promote that
before we take a couple more of these questions.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, we're going to go live that final hour heading
into NFL games. I'm going to go through every NFL
game as quickly as possible to share sides, totals, props,
we get live bets coming in, and more importantly, we
put in those teasers about fifteen minutes to kick off
for seven and one on those teasers through three weeks
of the NFL season. Currently number one in NFL in
the regular season. I feel really good about a week
three card, feel good about today's college card. Hopefully we're
discussing a big day Saturday tomorrow in the stateroom. Make
sure you join us. It will be free and I'll
answer all your questions. We'll talk risk management, will go
over year to date results and all that good stuff. Again,
it'll be twelve noon, but first I'll be on here
at about eleven am Eastern going over last call with
you guys as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Ariel, we'll be back hosting tomorrow, so you
can catch VR up first with her here as well
as John Murray, Carmine Bianco going over all that NFL slate. Now,
lou Wan's to know my thoughts in k Sate. We'll
get to those questions here later on with Ralph In.
Speaker 3: A lot of K State love, a lot of K
State love, I.
Speaker 1: Will talk about it. Let's talk about it. So I
have a lot of buddies, and I tweeted this the
other night when we were watching the Army ECU game.
I'm like, K State lost to this offense, Like this
is just a dragful offense. Yes, the defensive side of
Army held the ball for ninety percent of the second half.
That is something that did happen. Yes, there was a
wonky touchdown that got called back. There was a lot
of weird things that happened in that game. But the
reality is I don't think this k State team is tough.
And I had a buddy go well, Chris Clement's fighting
for his job. No, he's not. He's best friends with
the athletic director. And that's probably not something I should
say that would benefit me to say out to fifteen
hundred people watching live. But that is the reality. So
if you guys are betting on Kansas State, today because
you think that they're due for a bounce back after
a bye. I think that's the wrong move. If you
guys are betting on K State today because you think
they're coaches in the hot seat, that's also another wrong move.
I'll tell you this. I do think K State is
a much better team than we've seen, but so was
Florida State last year, who ended up finishing the season
two to ten. The Dublin air Lingus curse is real.
I am convinced this is not a good spot because
UCF just had a tragic medical emergency. I believe it
was a hard attack with one of their coaches. They're
going to come out and play just hard, so we
can argue both sides of the coin here. I thought
six was a completely egregious number, and now we're seeing
it down to five. VR You're saying a lot of
people are on K State, and I'm not really understanding it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, seeing in the back end, like recreational accounts, it's
all one sided. Like I'm surprised I lost the case
State a couple of weeks ago. I kind of been downgrading, downgraded,
and downgrading, But I wanted your opinion on that real quickly.
I just got a second. What Eman will say? You
look absolutely stunning today, just real bright.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Every time different, I have
a different ring, like maybe this is the ring, maybe
this is yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks absolutely stunning.
Speaker 1: Thank YOUVR, idi that you're very welcome. Let's see what
else we've got here. Any other questions?
Speaker 3: Yeah, someone asked about Tennessee misssip State game. Here's what
I'll tell you. You're seeing that line drop where it
sits now. I like Tennessee or pass. I get it
if you got an early number on home Dog, but
I think it's just dropped too significantly for me. I
haven't touched the game, but I think it's it's a
favorite or pass situation right now.
Speaker 1: All right, anything else you want to go over VR
before we let you go. I know you've got a
busy Saturday a head.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 3: No, I'm just really excited honestly about today's court. I
love the College Football Board. I'm a little lower volume
this week was able to narrow down some really strong plays.
Speaker 2: I love the UFC car.
Speaker 3: I got four to four percent and a couple three
percents in there as well, and hopefully we cheer in
a winning Saturday and roll that into Sunday NFL real
good car, join me for the steam room. Best of
luck to you all today. Thank you again, Kel for
having me on, and hope the whole Wager Talks team
does some damage today.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, we are here to do some damage. We're gonna
answer all your college football questions here with Ralph Michaels
up next, we'll bring him in, and then of course
we've got Steve Merrill and he can find the link.
We're gonna let Kyle in. But if he can't find
the link, no UFC today, not my deal. Ralph Michaels
is laughing because he knows. He knows I run a
tight ship over here at Wager Talk. And of course
I'm sitting on a tall stool and the guy that's
sixty six is sitting on a small stool, so we
look completely opposite heights right now. But Ralph Michaels, welcome in.
How's your college football season been. We haven't talked except
for that you sent me that we may be opposite
on a play, and I'll leave that to promote because
it's your five percent play, and I was not very
happy with that and Ralph is muted too. We got
everybody muted this morning. I appreciate them getting themselves in
the background because that is one of my rules. It's
like when you're not on air, you have to mute yourself,
so at least they listen.
Speaker 5: On that front, we are back, you know, number two
in college football since the start of twenty twenty four,
behind mister Boss Benjamin So him and I have been
battling the entire time. Eleven and six this year, So
very excited. I do have a five percent since the
start of last year. I've had six five percents in
college football, perfect six to zero.
Speaker 2: I've got a weird stat for you, callenty.
Speaker 5: Not a weird stat, but when a team is play
UCF off a loss, like Kansas State is, they're sixteen
and one against the spread, so you know they've been
beaten up. It's sort of random because it's over three years,
but you know, just just something to throw out.
Speaker 2: There for you.
Speaker 1: Hey, that's not a bad set. Listen. I'm not cheering
against my team. I'm just trying to be a realist,
which I think every sports handicapper should be a realist
about what their team is going through. Any drama, any bs,
and those things are occurring right now, right like the
wheels have kind of fallen off there in Manhattan, Kansas,
whether people want to admit it or not. All right,
Ralph and I are going to get into some of
these college football questions. Ralph, we finished over here with
a question from Jojo before finding out with VR about
Mississippi State. Tennessee. Mississippi State was real close, not real close,
but they're pretty far down on my list. I thought,
all right, I'm looking for those outright underdogs. Can I
make a case for this Mississippi State team? Kind of
break down what you think about Tennessee Mississippi State and
what you think it's worth a wager or if at
this point time it's worth the pass.
Speaker 2: Oh, I like Mississippi State.
Speaker 5: Kelly. First of all, you know, we have a situation
that is that is eighty percent against the spread.
Speaker 2: And what is that situation?
Speaker 5: When a conference home dog is on a win streak
of four or more games, they are eighty.
Speaker 2: Percent against the spread.
Speaker 5: That's a pretty amazing number when you think about it,
and people talk about Mississippi State and some of the
defenses in the SEC.
Speaker 2: Mississippi State has played.
Speaker 5: A very weak schedule, no question, Southern miss Arizona State,
Alcorn State in Northern Illinois. So all you could do
is play the schedule that you were given. They have
held all four opponents.
Speaker 2: To a season low.
Speaker 5: So even though you played crappy competition, you still did
your job against that crappy competition. When I look at
Tennessee's defense, allowing five hundred and two yards to Georgia
scares the heck out of me. Allowing the three hundred
and seventy seven yards to Syracuse scares me. Their defense
it's actually number sixty two when you take what their
feet defense has done against the opponent's rest of their averages.
Speaker 2: To me, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an
outright upset. I am with you on the bulldos oooh okay.
Speaker 1: That might have just been enough to get me to
the window to add them to the list. Touth be told, Ralph,
I have stopped betting a lot earlier in the week
years past. I was always betting Monday's Tuesdays. This year,
I was like, every single game I have beat the
market on, it hasn't mattered. Every single game that I
got the worst of the number I end up doing well,
whether it was Bandy or Maryland, whatever, It's just been
kind of an interesting year. So I may add them
even no longer at seven and a half to my list.
All right, Ralph, you have a five percent play up
at wager Talk. Let everybody know what that well, you
can't tell them what that is, but you get the idea.
Let everyody know where they can get it.
Speaker 5: Well again, Number two in college football since it started
last year, and it's a no brainer whether you are
going to sign up for me VR Steve Merrill, the
Weekend Warrior is the only way to go. We started
it three weeks ago. We were impressed with the numbers.
Last week it almost doubled. I'm expecting it to double again,
and why wouldn't it. My five percent is thirty five dollars.
Or you can get all of my Saturday college football,
all of my Sunday NFL and if I have an
NFL play on Monday, you'll get that as well, for
just fourteen dollars, more than the price of that five percent.
You still got an hour, Actually, I think you got
a couple hours. I don't believe I have a noon
game today, so you got a couple hours to get me.
You've got about six or seven hours before my five
percent goes, so plenty of time to jump in on
the weekend Warrior.
Speaker 1: All Right, Jeff Schroeder has a question, and I'll take
the reins on it. I need someone to talk me
off I you today. Iowa looks like Illinois to me,
and I think Signetti will absolutely roll them three and
zero as road favorites last year. Ralph, this is my
one of my favorite bets this week. I do like Iowa.
I mentioned just a minute ago, art to Caesar from
the Westgate super Book said that the Westgate will need them.
I'll go back over those knees after we get down
with Ralph as well, And so that just kind of
gave me even the extra confident push to say, all right,
Iowa has a real opportunity to win this game. Out right.
They've been holding their opponents less than fourteen and a
half points per game. This is where you know an
immovable force meets an immovable force, right offense versus defense
kind of break down this game for me. I'm curious
to see if we agree.
Speaker 5: Well, Number one, you have to remember this playing at
home in the biggest game maybe of your your biggest
regular season game of your lifetime last week against Illinois
in that primetime game, blowing it out. And now what
do you do. You have to go on the road
against a very good defense for your first road game
of the year. Last year, we know how good Indiana was,
and what did they do their first road trip? Well,
they won significantly, but it was at UCLA. Then they
go to Northwestern and then they go to Michigan State.
So they didn't play a team that had a winning
record on the road until they went to Ohio State
and lost by twenty and then at Notre Dame losing
by ten.
Speaker 2: In the playoffs. You look at Iowa. I was on
Iowa last week.
Speaker 5: And boy did Gronkowski ever get backed. Against Albany he
was nine of sixteen for forty eight yards. Against Iowa
State they had eighty three yards passing the light bulb
clicked guys. Against U Mass they put up four hundred
and thirty five yards.
Speaker 2: He was twenty one of thirty one.
Speaker 5: And then last week at Rutgers he was twelve of
eighteen one eighty six. Remember, Mark Ronkowski started fifty five
games in South Dakota State. This isn't like a true
freshman that started the season. He just struggled the first
couple of games in the office. This Iowa team is
completely different, with an offense that can score points. And
then you look at their defense. They held Iowa State
to a season low, they held.
Speaker 2: U mass to a season low.
Speaker 5: They held Rutgers sixty one yards per game under what
their average is, and on the season, they are number
of eleven in the NFL on defense holding their opponents
under their average. I can't talk you off the Indiana Kelly,
because I'm with you on Iowa as well.
Speaker 1: Be very very very happy to hear that, Ralph. We're
gonna take a few more questions. We got about ten
minutes left with Ralph before Steve Merrill gets in here.
So Kentucky at usc Rain and the forecast Cats with
a strong run Cox week defending the run money line
on Kentucky. I'm gonna take the reins on this one
because it is in my three team money line parlay.
I liked Kentucky here and hand up, I've been betting
against South Carolina all season long. Here's the reality. I
feel like that Virginia Tech game right out of the gate,
got a little wonky. You know, defensive defensive score, special teams,
those things tend to skew the points spread. Then I
looked at it and said, all right, what's the real
problem here? And that was before the Bandy game, and
I said, Oh, my gosh, it's Mike Shula. Mike Shula
is running this offense into the ground. You have Leonora Sellers,
yet you have the worst third down every single time,
nine point four to one yards. That is the worst
in college football that they're averaging on third down. Thank
god for Lenora Sellers. Hopefully for me, he does not
run all over the place this weekend, but knowing me,
he probably will. All right, let's see if there's any
interesting questions here, any thoughts on Appalachian State. Here's an
interesting game, Ralph, I've kind of stopped following the Mountain West.
Boise State was one of those Mountain West powerhouses, but
since I left Las Vegas, the Mountain West just hasn't
really been on my radar. This is a pretty sizeable
point spread for a Boise State team that we've kind
of seem not really perform like we expected them to. Right, Remember,
they were the team out of the game of five
that was supposed to get into the college football playoff.
Speaker 5: Yeah, aren't they almost always the favorite going into the preseason.
You know, if you look at the USF game, and
of course we saw USF play well for a couple
more weeks after that, and they had a six yard edge,
but they really did that. You UF game was not
as bad of his loss as the score indicated because
they were minus three turnovers. Then they play Eastern Washington
and Air Force, so you know, you see an offense
that's averaging five hundred and thirty six yards. But the
app State defense, we really don't know how good it is.
You know, on paper, you look at app State's defense
and you're gonna say, wow, they're allowing two hundred and
seventy four yards per game and only two point one
yards per carry. You have a defensive dog getting over
you know, over three scores. How can you not back them? Well,
I can tell you why you don't back them. Their
games are Charlotte, linden Wood and Southern Miss. And oh yeah,
by the way, against Southern Miss, they ended up losing
that game as a sizable favorite thirty eight to twenty two.
So to me, it's a game that I just don't
know what I'm gonna take. I'm gonna watch and learn.
I have no interest betting this Boise State team coming
off a air Force win on the road and a
road game against Notre Dame on deck. So the situation
says State but again against this week of a schedule,
and this week of a schedule, and Gillen and Swann
combined are still only throwing for under sixty percent now
they're playing this defense. So no real opinion on the side.
But I cannot get the Boise State because of the
scheduling spot. I could say this probably could have been
Marco's sandwich game of the week between a between a
conference road game air Force and an game against Notre Dame.
Speaker 1: Very very good point. There's a couple other sandwich spots too.
I think it's Utah State I saw on Twitter is
also in one of those spots. That's a very good
point there, Ralph, all right, I might have to add
that one to my list to look at as well.
Let's go to Crypto Parley God. He wants to know
if you like Iowa State or Duke Today, Ralph, I
looked at Arizona had them on my long list as well.
I know Marco broke them down on bet on it
it was a spot where he thought they were a
barking dog. I blinked, it went to four and a half.
I said, all right, maybe this is just something I
can just place stale in the contest.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, when you look at injuries, major injuries
in college football, and you know, don't discount this and
Jelly's lost to syracuse'es, it could be as big as
any loss of any quarterback. I mean, he's he was
that important to that team, the way they got started.
You know, three hundred and seventy seven yards of Tennessee
is a very good game. Four to sixty one against Connecticut,
six hundred against Colgate. But you know you saw last
week against Clemson four hundred and thirty three yards. So
you know, Ricky Collins comes in now. I don't mind
taking over for an injured quarterback the first game. I
do truly believe in the injury system. When your superstar,
our best player, gets hurt, your team rallies. We often
see defense has rise to the occasion, even though their
defense isn't good, allowing four hundred and fifty five yards
they've given up. They've been shredded over over over over
the passing game. They allowed six hundred forty six hundred
and sixty four yards the last two week to Colgate
and the Clemson, and we know how bad Clemson's offense
has been.
Speaker 2: You look at the Duke defense, not impressed at all.
Speaker 5: Along five hundred and thirty five yards last week to
NC State, there were four turnovers plus four. Any college
team that's plus four turnovers is gonna win the game.
That's the reason they won that game. They also lost
the game against Illinois because they were minus five turnovers.
So this line adjustment to me is too high in
this situation with Duke being a road favorite. Remember they
went to Tulan and they couldn't win in that situation.
I actually do lean Syracuse here.
Speaker 1: Ooh, that's a really interesting dynamic. I always forget about
the injured player theory because I don't know how to
quantify it, so it makes it a little difficult. But
you're right, it is a good situation, and maybe his
injury is getting just a little overblown. All right, We're
gonna take a couple more questions for Ralph before Steve
Merrill comes in. Kyle Anthony I just logged in. He's
waiting in the wings. If you guys have a UFC question,
make sure you guys drop it in the chat. This
game is disgusting. But why is Northwestern minus six and
a half against a more talented UCLA team that just
fired their coach Ralph This is always one of those
interesting thoughts. You know, Art Caesar sent me the list.
Oklahoma State was on there. I'm like, of course we
want to play Oklahoma State after they just fired Gundhy,
So why would we not want to play Ucla after
they just fired their coach.
Speaker 2: I'm looking.
Speaker 5: My power ratings actually have Northwestern only by four. But
it's a situation where I can't. I can't back Ucla
no way. I actually lean Northwestern with my power ratings
that far off. I usually always lean with that team,
but in this case I can't. Why Well, because you
have a team that traveled at UNLV, gave up thirty
points and lost by seven. Then they lose to New
Mexico and now they're traveling again to Northwestern. Northwestern team,
you got a two lane and you lose. Was it
a bad loss?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 5: But again they were minus five turnovers. You guys got
to remember, if a team is not completely turnover pone,
you basically have to throw out a game the stats.
When your minus five, you just can't get anything going.
Turning the ball over The next week against Western Illinois
they do well. Last week against Oregon, Yes, they lost
thirty four to fourteen.
Speaker 2: I think Oregon is a top two or three team
in the country, no question.
Speaker 5: They were only out gained by sixty yards and they
were minus one turnover. But they rushed for one hundred
and seventy eight yards and four point eight yards per carry.
Speaker 2: Why does that matter? Well, let's see, UCLA's rush defense is.
Speaker 5: Allowing two hundred and forty four yards per game five
point five yards per carry. Any offense that can run
the ball against this type of defense is going.
Speaker 2: To look much better.
Speaker 5: Even if Preston Stone is completing under sixty percent so
far this year with a three to six ratio. When
play action is working and you can run the ball,
you know, hinted as a four point nine YPA, porter
has a seven point six YPA. Northwestern wins and covers
this game.
Speaker 1: All right, We got a couple more questions here in
the chat, Jake wants to know what my three team
money line parlay is. Jake, Jake, come on, you can't
go to my Instagram and watch the video for me.
We put in so much work over there on that
I already gave you guys two of the legs. If
you've been paying attention, you know what it is. Let's
see any other questions from the chat. Let's go BYU, Colorado, Ralph.
Here was a spot where I had Colorado kind of
circled and I thought, all right, we're gonna look at
Colorado a little bit better, and then see the face
you just made kind of made the same face. I
was like, Oh, I really like I'm can back some
stinky underdogs. But I don't know if I've met that
bad of underdogs. BYU has looked all right, and some
of their road starts here this season where I thought
maybe they would falter ECU last week, I thought, hey,
this is a bad spot for BYU. Nope, they got
the job done. Talk to me about Colorado BYU. I
know that John Murray did tell me. Let's see BYU
took some sharp action early in the week on Tuesday.
Speaker 5: I'm looking something up Kel and I will say this.
You know, so many of us remember Colorado last year
and the offense they had. Well, right now, Kelly, they
are number one hundred and fifteen in plays per game run.
Last week against Wyoming they ran the ball thirty one times,
they passed twenty eight, That is fifty nine plays. At
Houston they ran the ball twenty three times, fifty eight plays.
The week before against Delaware, they did open up the
pass game just to get the quarterbacks a little bit
of experience.
Speaker 2: But I look at BYU's defense.
Speaker 5: They allowed four hundred four yards to East Carolina on
the road last week and that thirty four to thirteen
win because they were plus two turnovers. But knowing they
allowed four hundred four yards is one thing. But when
you look at Carolina, that is actually seventy eight yards
per game, less than East Carolina is averaging. So they've
held all three foes to a season low. They run
the ball much more than they pass. They're running the
ball one hundred and twenty three times this year, passing
for seventy one. Colorado's pace is slow. B Yu's paces slow.
Only way I go in this game is under, and
in this case, I think it's gonna be a close
conference game early on.
Speaker 2: I would prefer under first half in this matchup.
Speaker 1: All right under first half for Ralph. We're gonna let
Ralph get out of here. He's got a busy Saturday,
hopefully laying by the pool and enjoining himself. I hope
why catching some college football winners, Ralph really quick before
we let you go, can you let everybody know about
the Weekend Warrior over atwager talk dot com again.
Speaker 5: Weekend Warrior forty nine dollars all of Saturday college football,
all of Sunday NFL, plus if you have a Monday
night NFL play, it gets added. One important note I
want to add, it's only forty nine dollars any camp
or it's available for anyone. But if you are waiting
to next week to sign up for it, sign up
at the beginning of the week.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 5: So as soon as we look the plays, you get them.
You don't have to wait till Saturday. If you buy
it on Tuesday and I start releasing my games on Tuesday,
you'll get those plays with the lines that I want
you to bet them at immediately.
Speaker 2: So next week on the Weekend Warrior, do not wait
till the end of the week.
Speaker 5: Find out who you want to sign up for, grab
them early, and make sure you take advantage of those lines.
Speaker 2: Of the best lines available, Ralph.
Speaker 1: Is the best at cal Sports LV over on social media.
If you guys are looking for any other extra trends
and angles, you guys can also go ahead Ralph.
Speaker 5: I was just gonna say tell ky I Anthony, congratulations
for finding the link.
Speaker 1: But first we're gonna bring in Steve Merrill. Also wt
dot buzz backslash rm is Ralph's homepage over there on
wager talk dot com. If you are looking for that
five percent play of his Let me actually do one
quick thing before we bring in Steve Merrill. I'm going
to read you guys the good old Westgates super Gate
super Book Needs once again, just for you guys. Art
said they're gonna need Iowa, they're gonna need Central Michigan,
They're gonna need Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Georgia. The public
is on usc LSU and Notre Dame, and Art's best
bet is Hawaii plus seven. All right, let's bring in
Steve Merrill. He's filling in for Art today at last minute.
I appreciate Steve as always coming in. We saw each
other yesterday. We had an extended version of wager Talk today,
So lots of Stephen Kelly today. Steve, We're gonna get
right into this action. Lots of people have questions. Let's
talk about Arkansas Notre Dame. That is the game that
I think is maybe getting a little too overblown.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 1: I considered Arkansas for my three team money line parlay
I did. I thought, Okay, let's look and see if
the Hogs can bounce back. Marco gave out Memphis last
week in a sandwich spot, and I thought, uh, can
Memphis win the game? And they looked ugly mid third quarter,
and all of a sudden, here comes Memphis and then
Arkansas does what they do and they turned the ball
over in the red zone. Notre Dame. Their defense has
some real issues here. Talk to me about Arkansas Notre Dame. Steve.
Speaker 6: Yeah, First of all, I hosted yesterday for the first
time with you as the guest. Now we've gone back
to normal. Things are normal again. The host has become
the hostess. No, that's not right anyway, the interviewer has
become the interviewee. This is a game I haven't talked
about this week on any videos or show, so I'm
glad you brought it up. It is one of the
better games. It's an early game here at noon Eastern
on ABC National TV. You know, I talked about this
with the Chiefs game yesterday in the Ravens. I always
kind of look to play against the Super Bowl loser. Historically,
almost half the time they don't even make the playoffs,
where I think we could take that same angle in
recent years with the National Championship loser. You know, you
saw TCU have that regression. Washington had a losing season
last year, they regress, so Notre Dame would fit the bill.
This year. They had that tough Week one game and
then they had a little bit of a fortunate game
against Texas A and M. That was a tough game
as well. I think this is a play against team
this year, So I have no problem taking Arkansas right now.
I'm calling for the outright upset. Actually, I think the
Hogs win this one straight up at newon Eastern and
that goes off in about a half hour. Not a
game I touched on, but Notre Dame I think is
a bit overrated this season. I think Arkansall maybe a
little bit underrated for the reasons you mentioned.
Speaker 1: Yep, with you, I do think that Notre Dame is
a little bit over hyped. Ron's a question about the
Westgate needs. Is it based off sharp action or public action?
I think it's based off total money. So whether they've
got a lot of sharp money bet on one side,
whether they've got a lot of public action bet on
the other. I think it is a based overall need
will be a bigger win for them up at that
point in time. So for example, they need Georgia. I've
seen a lot of books online say they need Alabama,
so kind of take that with what you guys will.
I'm happy that they need Iowa. I always do love
being against the whole world, and of course the whole
world is going to be on Indiana. Let's talk about Washington.
Mel wants to know about Washington. This is a game
I feel like should be a more marquee game, but
it's kind of really flying under the radar, Steve, because
we have such a great slate of games. Ohio State
eight and a half point favorite down to eight over
there at Washington. Kind of one of those spots where
we don't see Ohio State falter often, but do you
think they may have trouble with the Huskies.
Speaker 6: So I did a standalone video for this game. It's
a three thirty Eastern mid afternoon game, so deep dive
available here on wager Talk TV. And I was conflicted
on this one. I do think Ohio States as good
as anybody in the country, and I mentioned how Washington
regressed last year they had that six and seven season
after making the National Finals. For that reason, though, I
think they could be an upside deal. We saw TCU
do that the year before, as I also mentioned, they
actually played better. Since the problem is, I do think
Ohio State's a better team, the much better offensive team.
My ten thousand game simulation favors Ohio State only six
in this game, so the current line of eight. As
you mentioned, I do think there is some value with
the home dog here. I don't know if I'm a
call for the outright upset, but one catalyst that could
come into play is the fact this is the first
true start on the road for a very young quarterback.
So just saying this might be a difficult spot in
a housto environment, I think Washington can hang within the
eight points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I may end up getting to the window with
Washington and we're gonna find out here. Steve, this is
the problem. I have started betting so much later in
the week because I feel like I'm getting better of
the information and that's what I prefer now as opposed
to trying to beat the market. Right. And also, you
can't get down as much earlier in the week, so
then you're betting Summitt this number, and then the market
moves in next thing, you know, You're trying to get
another five hundred or a dime down. And it just
is one of those things where I'm like, you know what,
I'm just gonna wait Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then Saturday
we get all those needs from the West Gate. I
get some other information and I like to tail some
sharp friends of mine. Let's talk about a couple of
the games that you like. I know you did a
fade the public video over there on the way to
Talk YouTube channel right after we got done film Wager
Talk today, So that is up. What else do you
have up over there? And then what other games should
we be looking at?
Speaker 6: Yeah, the NFL videos are all locked and loaded. I
don't know if they it's actually cool. The Insider's got
a sneak peek at the Faded the Public video last
night before it goes live this afternoon, So that's another reason,
by the way, to be an insider for two ninety nine,
not two n two dollars in ninety nine cents, less
than three dollars a month. I think it's wt dot
buzz slash insiders. I believe it's the shortcut. But they
got the sneak peak twelve hours sooner than everybody else
in I Faded the Public video that will be up
in a couple hours for everybody on YouTube TV. The
college football Top twenty five video is up there right now.
Six games in depth, so games we haven't talked about
here on that video as well, and then some standalone
videos they had Ohio State game I did, and some
other ones. So hey, it's all free right here on
wager Talk TV. And oh, by the way, Kelly bonus
free play on my page right now. I don't do
a lot of totals in college football this early, but
I have my first free total of the season up
for a night game to night on Saturday, So go
get that on my page right now. College football free
play total my top total of the week. Free Steve Merrill,
Wager Talk dot Com and get there quicker, WT dot Buzz,
slash sm Love.
Speaker 1: That, Love that, Love that All right, guys, if you
have a question for Steve dropping in the chat, we
got KYLEI, Anthony wait in the wings. We got a
couple of you FC questions for him. I know he's
going to touch on a pair of fights before we
get to kickoff. I don't see any more questions. Ralph
did a really great job. I know Steve filled in
last minute there when I found out that Art wasn't
coming in. I'm using Steve's fade the public techniques to
fade my wife so I can watch the games.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you gotta be careful with that. Like we always say,
you don't always fade the public. Sometimes the public is
what right. Wives are normally never right. But you got
to tell him they're always right. So that's how you
fade the public there. It depends. Sure, she's a lovely lady,
so sounds fantastic. I will say this, Kelly. You talked
about the needs with the Westgate though. Yeah, it's one
hundred money, and I think people forget that the sharps
bet ten to twenty times more than the public. Right,
So when I'm doing the public data for my videos,
I'm looking at ticket counts. I'm looking at consensus contests
like where a lot of squares are playing, and most
of the public money in the NFL does give it
on Sundays Ace and I talked about that yesterday, so
you know, I'm doing a little foreshadowing when I'm doing
the video on Friday night into Saturday. But yeah, look,
you know the sharp spent ten to twenty times more
than the public. So ticket counting money are two different things.
And when you see a high ticket count of one
game but a high money count on the other side,
that actually sometimes is a sharp square divide that you
want to pay attention to.
Speaker 1: So also interesting, Steve in this state's way back to
when we had the proxy service, and even before then,
when I was in the contest. You know, back in
my early days in Vegas, if you faded the top
five selections correct, yeah, for years it was money and
it's been money. And not only the Westgate Superbook but
also the Circuit Contest. That just had me think the
top five most selected super Contest college teams in Week five,
Ole Miss with two hundred and fifty four, Washington plus
eight with two hundred and twenty one, Oregon plus three
and a half hit v R. Sait he thought Pit
was the public underdog today with two hundred and four selections,
and then Georgia minus three with one hundred and ninety one.
So very interesting list there to see who I would say,
if you're going to spend five hundred dollars in a
college football cant it's either A you got to think
you know a little bit of something right right, or
B you just don't care about money and you're just
trying to have fun for the season.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and what essentially about the Circle One especially is
that's sharper than all of them. I think, you know
the Westgate has been over years, but you get a
lot of public money in the Westgate contest because the
entry cost was lower, like you said, and you had
more entries. But yeah, for decades, if you faded that
number one pick, especially in the west Gate, you've made
money every season. And something you gotta be careful with
the contest is a lot of times they're playing stale lines,
so you have to look and say, well, is this
one heavy because the line is one to two points
better than what the market line is. But even then
it probably loses more times than it wins. It really
is an amazing phenomenon, and it goes back to something
that you and I know, Kelly. The odds makers aren't
that wrong, not too often, and if they are, they're
not off by more than a couple of points. And
you talked about playing later in the week versus early
in the week. Yes, the lines are sharper later in
the week, but you have to decide at what type
of cap you want to be. I'm not trying to
chase numbers on Sunday night Monday morning. It's just not
my style either. But sometimes, like acid I talked about yesterday,
on Friday, you got to stay off a game with
them line moves against. You don't have that value anymore.
On Friday, you've got to pass. But the fade in
the public does win more than it loses. And by
the way, all three weeks this year in my NFL video,
you have made money if you faded the public plays
I've given out. It's now eleven to five and one
so far after three weeks, and I had mentioned it
the first couple of weeks I mentioned in the video
this weekend, which means a public will probably go like
four and oh, we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, this is this is still blood bath weeks.
Speaker 6: Three or four years. You are pretty good ugly underdogs
like Ralph of that oh and three chart the other
day about how on the blind those teams have made
money for a decade now in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, Steve, we're going to get you out
of here. We're gonna get to talking UFC. We have
almost thirty five hundred of you guys watching live. Congrats
to all the new members joining here on the Wager
Talk Insiders, WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders. As Steve mentioned,
just two dollars and ninety nine cents to join. You
guys are gonna get early access to videos. You guys
are going to get early access to free steam rooms,
and we've got a lot more planned as we start
to build that membership program. Steve, I hope you have
a very profitable weekend, and I'm sure we'll see you
here on last call in the near future. Kyle Anthony,
he figured out the link. I'm so happy, Kyle is
here and he knows I'm gonna bust his balls about it,
because that's what I do here at wager Talk.
Speaker 7: Where I you you gave it. You gave like a hint.
And then I scrolled, I looked around. I found Dan
Alexander's name. I messaged him and I asked him where
it was.
Speaker 1: Wow, we're going, you know, dance out the producer today
and today's supposed to be his day off. We actually
pay someone else to fill in for him, so you
can have the weekends off, so if he wants to
go back to working weekends, I am full on.
Speaker 7: He definitely gave it to me, ferv like, dude, this
is where it is, bro like this, this is where
this shit is. Like I was like, okay, all right,
I got it. Kelly, just Kelly Stonewall to me. I'll
Dan was a little bit nicer.
Speaker 4: I'll take it. I'll take yeah, of course, and.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be nicer. That's the problem. Somebody's got to
be the bad tap here. And we're gonna talk to
UFC and we've got some questions from our audience. Kyle,
I'm gonna have you go into your first fight right
out of the gate. The joke is here. Anytime my
host I show with Kyle, he always picks the hardest
names for me to try to pronounce. So I'm just
gonna concede and let Kyle talk about this first fight.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 7: So the first one we will talk about is the
main event, and we're gonna talk Carlos Ulberg and Dominic Reyes.
So in this fight here, first, when you look at
Dominic Reyis, I mean back twenty twenty, he went out there,
he almost beat the goat of the UFC, the goat
of MMA, John Jones. It was a debatable fight, a
very close fight. Some would argue that he won three two.
MMA judging is MMA judging, and they gave it to
John Jones. And after that fight, you know, the the
title fight hangover for him was about as bad as
it gets for Reys because he went out there, everyone thought, wow,
you compete with John Jones, and then he gets knocked
out three straight times in absolutely brutal, brutal fashion. He
got knocked out against Yan Blojovich, Ury Prahashka, Ryan Span
I mean, not a good look overall. When you're looking
at really the competition level is there, the power is there,
but the chin may not be there. Then he comes
back after a two year layoff, and now Reyes is
on a three fight winning streak, and it looks good,
you know, on paper, he went out there, knocks out
a couple guys. But the big question, and really the
question I think that anyone who's betting this fight is
where's Reys's chin? And those three fights, you know, they
kind of I think gave a little bit of like
a false.
Speaker 4: Sense of security because in order to test.
Speaker 7: A durability, you need to get hit, and those three
fights that he came back, he didn't really get hit.
You know, you have Dustin Jacobe landed only six significant
strikes before he got knocked out. Nikita Krailoff landed four
significant strikes before he got knocked out, and pillow Fist
Anthony Smith landed twenty one significant strikes and then he
got finished. And credit to Reys, guy's got power, there's
no doubt, but the chin still is in question. And
even his knockout against Ryan Span where he lost, Ryan
Span landed a jab and it knocked him out and
that was the eighth strike of the fight. So this
to me is a spot where really you've got Carlos
Uber coming in an elite level kickboxer, great distance management,
great at range, much more technical striker between the two,
I think has got the power as well. And I
don't really see this fight going to the ground. I
don't see takedowns. I don't see Rayas looking for these takedowns.
I think this plays out on the feat, which again
allows this opportunity for a knockout to materialize. And I
do think this five rounder is really going to be
the part where you're gonna see really Ulbert Early maybe
pick him apart, but land something big here. And the
one thing we do know, one thing we do know
is you can't fixed class chance.
Speaker 4: You just can't.
Speaker 7: There is that there's never been a moment where we've
seen a guy, Hey, this guy always gets knocked out,
can't take a punch, and all of a sudden he
could take a punch.
Speaker 4: I don't think that's gonna happen here.
Speaker 7: I think that Uberg lands a big shot, gets the knockout,
so get him off the minus two fifty number. You
can get Uberg by knockout sitting room minus one twenty five.
I like the spot, and I think that he wins
this and ends up fighting for the title.
Speaker 2: Next, Kyle, we.
Speaker 1: Got a question in the chat. Is there a reason
to think Uberg will not won't win by finish?
Speaker 2: Excuse me?
Speaker 7: Well, the only thing that that I look at with
that is that Uber could maybe play it a little bit,
you know, little patient, not be not look to get
into the striking zone that you're gonna see. Of Reyes
obviously has power. He's a guy that can bring that.
But I think that if he does, it's pitter patter
shots on the outside. But this is Ulberg in Australia,
on home soil. I think that he gets this knockout,
does it in spectacular fashion.
Speaker 4: And then you know, fights for the title.
Speaker 1: All right, awesome, talk to me about the UFC per correct, Yes, okay,
So everybody in here is hanging out for college football.
They want early NFL, but we moved you over here
to last call because I think UFC recreational betters, myself included.
We're not talking about UFC early in the week. We're
not you well, like we want to know, Okay, it
starts at this time. I want to get a little
bit of action down while I've got my college football
on one TV and I've got the fight on my laptop,
talk to me about where they can watch this and
where they can catch it, because it's on the other
side of the world.
Speaker 7: Right, So so a lot of times these, especially when
you're talking about somebody that are in China, they're starting
at ten am. There's this one's at pert so it
is starting at seven. So we are getting the right
time frame here. It is going to be on ESPN Plus,
so you're going to be able to see that, and
you know, I'm sure it's every single sports book you
go to will be having that.
Speaker 4: But yeah, this fight, we.
Speaker 7: Will go a little bit longer. It will be from
probably seven Eastern to probably one in the morning. So
a lot of betting opportunities. I always talk about that
each week. It doesn't have to be the highest level
of fight. I know the sexy ones people want to bet.
Next week is UFC three to one. It's a massive car.
We're gonna talk about.
Speaker 4: That next week.
Speaker 7: But this is a spot here where there's opportunities, big
money every week on UFC.
Speaker 4: That's why it's year round, That's what his opportunities.
Speaker 1: And that's why Kyle's here on last call because we
don't care. We want to make money that arm here anyway,
So we're looking at Olbert here early on. And who
else are we looking at in another fight, Kyle, So you.
Speaker 4: Never fight you were talking about is Josiah Mussasa. He
is sitting around minus one minus one sixty minus went seventy.
Other side Colby fifties, he's sitting around plus plus one
thirty plus one forty. And this is a spot where
you look at Musasa.
Speaker 7: And he's a guy that came into Data Whites Contender Series,
had a lot of hype behind him. You know, he's
seven and oh seven knockouts, six in the first round.
Speaker 4: He's got the cool nickname, the Knockout Wizard.
Speaker 7: I mean, he looks the part, and you know, he's explosive,
he's got power. There's a lot of great things that
he does do. But in the last two fights that
he had I thought were just really underwhelming. In his
Data White Contender Series fight, it was a fight where
he won but he won't buy split decision, and it
was also a fight I thought he clearly lost. He
was outstruck in every single round. He was taken down
four times and his opponent had four minutes of control time.
And I think that's just a really bad showing for
him for a spot where it really looked like a
smash spot. Still, the UFC signs him, and his most
recent fight was even worse, where he came in as
a minus seven fifty favorite. A lot of hypes still
was around this guy, and he was fighting Carlos Vira,
who is a jiu jitsu guy, grappler, doesn't have much power,
you know, very you know Peter patter shots, and this
is where he came into this fight. Vera knocks him
down in the first round and submits him in the
first round, and again another terrible showing. Still we're getting
here an opportunity where he's he's still a favorite, you know,
And I think this line is wrong. I do think
that Colby has the ability here should be the favorite here.
Speaker 4: And also you look at what he can do. He's
more well rounded.
Speaker 7: He's training partners with Alexander Volkanovski, so you know they're
gonna have a really good camp behind him, a really good.
Speaker 4: Game plan behind him.
Speaker 7: Also, his debut, I think is skewing this line a
little bit because he came in on short notice against
Tiporia's brother, on short notice, no camp, and still had
a good account of himself. He lost the fight, but
he still had a very good account of himself. And
I think this is a spot here where you know, yes,
you know, Musasa is going to have that explosiveness, that power,
but I think he's very raw, he's very green. He
makes a lot of mistakes here, and I think the
takedowns will be there for Colby. So I think Cooby
can get this job done here. I think that the
plus money number is still nice. It's starting to tighten
a little bit, but I still like him here at
the plus one thirty plus one forty.
Speaker 1: Now you're speaking my language, Kyle. We know I love
those nice little underdogs. All right, we've got about twelve
minutes until kickoff here. Anything else you want to talk
to our audience about UFC Perth related.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I can give you another plus money we can
talk about here, and the other one's going to be
just in Taffa between Louis Sutherland. Now, a lot of
times when I come on these shows, I'm breaking down styles,
you know, analysis.
Speaker 4: You know, skill, all these things that we just talked
about last flight. This fight is not that.
Speaker 7: This is two sloppy heavyweights who really are just gonna
swing in the middle, They're gonna throw it looks like
this is you know, that's heavily tilted towards the under
in this spot here. And you know, Sutherland's a guy
who I don't think is very good. You know, most
of the guys, you know, this is UFC debut, most
of the guys that he fought, you know, we're part
time garbage men on the side. Now he's fighting UFC
caliber guy. Justin Taffa is not the greatest fighter by
any means, but he is a guy that does have
a lot of power. Is gonna be able to have
the faster hands, be good leg kicks, and I think
he could mix it up a little bit. And I
think that that Sutherland's gonna just he kind of moves forward,
just throws random wild shots here and this is the
spot where Justin Taffa, out of his seven victories, all
come by knockout. Here, I think Tafa gets this job done.
I think there's a possibility to get it within the
first or second round. But if you're just looking Tafa
by knockout, that's sitting around plus one twenty five plus
one thirty roughly around there. And I think that's how
he does it here another guy home Soil guy. I
think he gets the crowd going with that one.
Speaker 1: I love those plus money plays from Kyle Anthony at
Kyle Anthony UFC. You guys can catch him there over
on social media. Kyle, let everybody know what you've got
up for today over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I have a couple of plays off.
Speaker 7: I'm actually gonna be adding I have three plays in
there right now, gonna be adding probably five, Probably have
two more before we get in there. To your point,
before Kelly, the weigh ins were like midnight and there
was everything's a little different and changed, so normally I'd
like to take a look at that before I find
life of my plays. But I do have a four
percent play since twenty twenty three hitting at seventy one percent.
Feeling good about that one here. But again, next weekend
Monster Card gonna have a lot of plays, so check
it out wager talk dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, next weeknd Kyle's gonna be joining us here in
the last twenty minutes or so of last call, taking
us up till kickoff. Talking about all those UFC plays
that maybe we need to be including in our college
football watching you know, just telling you guys, money is money.
I love it. The UFC is one of my favorite sports.
It probably saved me in the summer of twenty twenty
from going absolutely and utterly puffs. All right, Kyle, appreciate
you coming on. Appreciate everybody in the comment section. Shout
out to all of our new insiders that joined today,
wt Dot Buzz Backslash Insiders. You guys are in for
a real treat. We're gonna try to get you, guys
some of that first and foremost information that you get
here on the Wager Talk to YouTube channel. Maybe it's
a couple hours before, maybe it's a day before, but
we are going to take care of you guys. All Right, guys,
I hope you have a wonderfull weekend. Aeron Epsie will
be back tomorrow with Jannie the Greek, John Murray, Carmine Bianco,
Joe Madden will be here Monday night before that doubleheader kickoff,
hosting with the Prez. Have a great Saturday, Sunday and Monday, guys.
Good luck cash them, don't trash them.