WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:04.160 Exactly. And really, the further the separation goes here between 2 00:00:04.200 --> 00:00:07.160 bitcoin and gold, the more encouraged you should be of 3 00:00:07.480 --> 00:00:11.919 an inevitable bitcoin run, especially because so many people are 4 00:00:11.919 --> 00:00:16.120 flocking out of crypto right now, that just increases the 5 00:00:16.199 --> 00:00:19.399 likelihood of an eventual catch up because those people who 6 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:22.600 are flocking out, where are their coins going. They're mostly 7 00:00:22.640 --> 00:00:27.760 going toward key stakeholders. 8 00:00:30.199 --> 00:00:33.359 Hey, folks, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home 9 00:00:33.439 --> 00:00:36.520 for cryptocurrency news and interviews and joining me today is 10 00:00:36.600 --> 00:00:38.600 Brian from Sentiment and we are going to do a 11 00:00:38.679 --> 00:00:41.119 deep dive into the metrics round bitcoin and the top 12 00:00:41.159 --> 00:00:43.479 all coins to get an idea what's happening in the 13 00:00:43.479 --> 00:00:47.439 crypto market. And if Brian, you should leave crypto and 14 00:00:47.479 --> 00:00:48.640 go to precious metals. 15 00:00:49.039 --> 00:00:53.039 Yeah, Cliff notes the answers, No, I don't believe that 16 00:00:53.079 --> 00:00:55.119 we need to go anywhere, And I'd say that whether 17 00:00:55.200 --> 00:00:57.920 I was working for a crypto company or not, I 18 00:00:58.000 --> 00:01:01.240 think we do have a lot of people who are 19 00:01:01.240 --> 00:01:04.480 pretty impatient and agitated right now by the lack of 20 00:01:05.879 --> 00:01:09.280 fun crypto has provided for a couple weeks now. The 21 00:01:09.359 --> 00:01:11.840 month started off great. If you remember the first week 22 00:01:11.879 --> 00:01:14.400 of January, it was like, Oh, we're finally awake again, 23 00:01:15.439 --> 00:01:18.799 and now we're kind of back to this sideways slumber 24 00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:23.280 and waiting for crypto to catch up to gold and silver, 25 00:01:23.400 --> 00:01:26.319 which has been the huge talk this week in particular. 26 00:01:27.079 --> 00:01:31.319 Well, yeah, look, gold is a shiny object, so is silver. 27 00:01:31.439 --> 00:01:33.599 But man, don't you got to be careful because you 28 00:01:33.640 --> 00:01:37.799 look at their charts, they're going parabolic. It's green candle 29 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:40.400 after green candle. And I've seen that in crypto, and 30 00:01:40.519 --> 00:01:44.840 usually that is a sign of watch out because everybody's 31 00:01:44.879 --> 00:01:47.359 getting greedy. They're lining up to buy these assets and 32 00:01:47.480 --> 00:01:50.959 much more, and the market always does the opposite exactly. 33 00:01:51.200 --> 00:01:53.959 All the fomo, as many of you have seen on 34 00:01:54.000 --> 00:01:59.640 your timelines, appears to be flowing toward precious metals from 35 00:01:59.760 --> 00:02:02.560 people who've never owned gold and silver in their lives 36 00:02:02.680 --> 00:02:06.480 or a mining company, what have you. They're suddenly very 37 00:02:06.519 --> 00:02:10.000 interested because that's where the prices have been moving up. 38 00:02:11.360 --> 00:02:16.319 And we've all seen the charts of early adopters versus 39 00:02:16.439 --> 00:02:19.879 late adopters and which side tends to do well. And 40 00:02:20.159 --> 00:02:22.759 spoiler alert, it's not the late adopters. It's the people 41 00:02:22.759 --> 00:02:25.960 who were in on the initial incline of gold and silver, 42 00:02:26.520 --> 00:02:28.639 and yes, they've been doing very well for a while. 43 00:02:28.719 --> 00:02:33.639 They've outperformed the bitcoin. Gold's up seventy ish to eighty 44 00:02:33.680 --> 00:02:36.759 ish percent over the past year. Silver's up i think 45 00:02:37.120 --> 00:02:39.560 over three x now or close to it in the 46 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:43.439 past year, while bitcoin's down about ten to twelve percent 47 00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:45.919 depending on the timing of when you're watching this video, 48 00:02:47.240 --> 00:02:51.919 over the past year itself. So from what I'm seeing, 49 00:02:53.039 --> 00:02:56.719 the FOMO is finally hitting its peak for gold and 50 00:02:56.759 --> 00:02:59.719 silver because people have just had enough of waiting for 51 00:02:59.719 --> 00:03:03.879 big coin and which random alt coin might temporarily pop, 52 00:03:04.319 --> 00:03:06.199 and they're just saying, well, look at gold and silver, 53 00:03:06.240 --> 00:03:08.759 they've been going up for a long time. Now, clearly 54 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:12.000 that's the play. Now that's the new crypto, and people 55 00:03:12.080 --> 00:03:16.159 are are flocking out of crypto, which historically is a 56 00:03:16.199 --> 00:03:18.960 good thing. That's showing that we're finally getting close to. 57 00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:24.319 That crowd capitulation absolutely the keyword. They're capitulation, right, and 58 00:03:24.360 --> 00:03:27.599 you have the herd, the crowd, you know, giving up. 59 00:03:27.599 --> 00:03:31.120 They're getting depressed and much more. And as we always 60 00:03:31.159 --> 00:03:33.719 talk about, the market always does the opposite of the 61 00:03:33.719 --> 00:03:35.719 herd exactly. 62 00:03:35.960 --> 00:03:38.159 Yeah, and we'll look at some greed and fear for 63 00:03:38.240 --> 00:03:41.199 crypto as well, but I figured we'd start off just 64 00:03:41.240 --> 00:03:44.560 by checking out the seven day returns. Also notable is 65 00:03:44.560 --> 00:03:49.159 the fact that Bitcoin's discussions are up forty seven percent 66 00:03:49.360 --> 00:03:52.599 over the past week compared to the week prior. That's 67 00:03:52.639 --> 00:03:56.039 not because crypto discussions were dead last week. It's because 68 00:03:56.319 --> 00:04:00.680 crypto discussions are way up this week for Nike reasons. 69 00:04:00.719 --> 00:04:06.439 People are bashing bitcoin for being a quote unquote dead 70 00:04:06.560 --> 00:04:09.280 asset simply for not keeping up with gold and silver. 71 00:04:09.800 --> 00:04:12.439 It's only down ten to twelve percent over the past year. 72 00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:14.520 That's not that big of a deal in crypto and 73 00:04:14.879 --> 00:04:16.959 can literally be made up for in a day, and 74 00:04:16.959 --> 00:04:21.720 that suddenly is back to neutral. But because of the context, 75 00:04:21.759 --> 00:04:26.839 because it shows such a lag behind precious metals, it's 76 00:04:26.879 --> 00:04:30.839 really getting a lot of negative discussion. Just this week 77 00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:34.439 with all of the all time high discussions related to 78 00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:37.600 gold and especially silver, which has just been on a 79 00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:41.240 crazy too well, I guess, a crazy one year run, 80 00:04:41.279 --> 00:04:44.040 but especially in the last two weeks, it's really emerged. 81 00:04:44.439 --> 00:04:48.319 You know, as far as the sentiment compared to you, 82 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:50.879 I don't know if you have the calculator so to 83 00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:56.680 speak of showing you know. Bitcoin mentions are generally negative, 84 00:04:56.720 --> 00:04:58.800 and then with gold and silver it's positive right now. 85 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:02.000 Yeah, let's take take a look at just bitcoin by 86 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:04.319 itself really quick, and then I'll show a really interesting 87 00:05:04.399 --> 00:05:08.000 chart that compares how much discussion is going on for 88 00:05:08.040 --> 00:05:11.439 each sector, so just in terms of the ratio of 89 00:05:11.480 --> 00:05:15.600 positive versus negative commentary. It actually peaked here ride on 90 00:05:15.680 --> 00:05:18.839 New Year's as we suddenly saw bitcoin get back about 91 00:05:18.920 --> 00:05:22.800 ninety K, and then it's gradually fallen back down as 92 00:05:22.959 --> 00:05:27.000 prices have essentially failed to launch, and we're back here 93 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:29.079 at about eighty seven point five K at the time 94 00:05:29.120 --> 00:05:32.920 of this recording. So nothing too major. We're not seeing 95 00:05:32.959 --> 00:05:37.600 any fud. It's mostly just kind of neutral, regular discussions 96 00:05:37.639 --> 00:05:42.199 relating to bitcoin. Overall, social volume is up for it, 97 00:05:42.600 --> 00:05:46.399 but it's not at a point where there's some really 98 00:05:46.519 --> 00:05:51.639 encouraging fud, at least on this particular chart context. What 99 00:05:51.839 --> 00:05:56.800 does look encouraging is the fact that bitcoin make this 100 00:05:56.839 --> 00:06:01.079 a little bigger Bitcoin here in blue. The actual discussions 101 00:06:01.120 --> 00:06:04.319 related to it, Like I said, they're pretty stagnant. Silver 102 00:06:05.240 --> 00:06:07.639 going through the roof right now. As you would expect 103 00:06:07.959 --> 00:06:10.759 with what Tony and I have just mentioned about, silver 104 00:06:10.800 --> 00:06:12.959 were hitting all time highs and all the hype going 105 00:06:13.000 --> 00:06:16.000 that way, and then gold actually kind of got its 106 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:19.680 peak two weeks ago when it was making all time 107 00:06:19.759 --> 00:06:23.839 highs and silver wasn't doing enough to separate itself. Well, 108 00:06:24.199 --> 00:06:27.040 now even gold is starting to go back down because 109 00:06:27.160 --> 00:06:31.680 all the attention has moved towards silver. So even if 110 00:06:31.800 --> 00:06:35.040 you are deciding to get into silver or gold right now, 111 00:06:35.560 --> 00:06:38.360 this chart should tell you gold might be the better 112 00:06:38.399 --> 00:06:41.480 option between the two because Silver's fomo is just through 113 00:06:41.519 --> 00:06:44.480 the roof at the moment. But what fomo isn't through 114 00:06:44.480 --> 00:06:48.600 the roof is Bitcoin, which is continuing to show arguably 115 00:06:48.639 --> 00:06:51.160 a slight decline. I mean, especially going back to mid 116 00:06:51.199 --> 00:06:54.439 November when it really bottomed out and the thud was 117 00:06:54.480 --> 00:06:58.639 at its peak. But it's kind of fallen. If I 118 00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:01.000 just isolated really quick, you can see how it's kind 119 00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:04.120 of trickled down a little over time as more and 120 00:07:04.240 --> 00:07:08.480 more discussions have been cannibalized by silver and gold and 121 00:07:09.000 --> 00:07:11.399 other sectors out there. You know, meme coins had a 122 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:14.160 run at the beginning of the year two, So Bitcoin 123 00:07:14.279 --> 00:07:18.240 is being a little left in the gold and silver 124 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:19.199 dust if you will. 125 00:07:19.600 --> 00:07:23.600 Yeah, great point, and it's so fascinating to see the 126 00:07:23.920 --> 00:07:27.560 almost what you may say, is rotation between the precious metals. 127 00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:31.560 So gold obviously was ripping cool down in silver's turn, 128 00:07:31.639 --> 00:07:34.199 and I think I've been seeing copper or even palladium 129 00:07:34.519 --> 00:07:37.240 their charge are starting to run. It's very similar to 130 00:07:37.279 --> 00:07:39.560 what happens in crypto. Bitcoin runs. Then you get the 131 00:07:40.279 --> 00:07:42.639 you know all season as they will call it, exactly. 132 00:07:42.680 --> 00:07:44.680 And that's a good point, Tony. I mean, it's not 133 00:07:44.720 --> 00:07:47.879 even just gold and silver now, it's like anything tangible, 134 00:07:48.360 --> 00:07:52.319 especially during times of uncertainty, you know, heightened fears of war. 135 00:07:52.920 --> 00:07:55.000 You know, we don't need to get into the political 136 00:07:55.879 --> 00:07:59.839 will they won't they? And geopolitics related to tariffs, which 137 00:08:00.040 --> 00:08:02.720 there was good news about a week ago with Trump 138 00:08:02.800 --> 00:08:06.519 pulling back on the tarff threats to those eight European 139 00:08:06.600 --> 00:08:10.639 countries and he's working something out with Greenland behind or 140 00:08:10.680 --> 00:08:13.920 with NATO regarding Greenland behind the scenes at the moment. 141 00:08:15.199 --> 00:08:19.720 Not much specific infos come out about that, but regardless, 142 00:08:19.839 --> 00:08:22.439 it does. You know, just the fact that gold is 143 00:08:22.480 --> 00:08:25.680 going up this much, it isn't just like a random 144 00:08:25.759 --> 00:08:30.839 alt coin that a bunch of dgen traders, if you will, 145 00:08:30.959 --> 00:08:34.559 are pumping money into. This is a real tangible asset 146 00:08:34.879 --> 00:08:38.320 that is getting bought up by very large players and 147 00:08:38.440 --> 00:08:44.279 institutions as a reaction to the uncertainty of the world 148 00:08:44.360 --> 00:08:47.200 right now, and god forbid even a fear of war 149 00:08:47.279 --> 00:08:49.840 or something like that. That typically is what pumps these 150 00:08:49.879 --> 00:08:54.440 precious metals up. And clearly, just based on price is 151 00:08:54.480 --> 00:08:56.679 going up this much. I wish I had silver to 152 00:08:56.720 --> 00:08:58.919 show as well, and we should have that on San 153 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:01.120 Bay soon. I've been talking to the devs about it. 154 00:09:01.360 --> 00:09:03.759 But at the very least we have gold showing. This 155 00:09:03.840 --> 00:09:06.080 is kind of a fear indicator in my opinion. 156 00:09:06.399 --> 00:09:10.960 But yeah, for sure, and we've seen this throughout history, 157 00:09:11.080 --> 00:09:14.480 you know, the markets where gold runs and these times 158 00:09:14.480 --> 00:09:16.600 of uncertainty, and you know, there's been lots of talks 159 00:09:16.600 --> 00:09:19.360 of like central banks have been buying gold and ramping 160 00:09:19.360 --> 00:09:24.480 that up. So's it's a very different time. And you know, hopefully, 161 00:09:24.600 --> 00:09:27.399 you know, those of us in crypto we get our turn. 162 00:09:27.600 --> 00:09:30.440 But I don't know how long this run lasts for 163 00:09:30.960 --> 00:09:33.200 these precious metals exactly. 164 00:09:33.639 --> 00:09:37.120 And really the further the separation goes here between bitcoin 165 00:09:37.240 --> 00:09:40.080 and gold, the more encouraged you should be of an 166 00:09:40.399 --> 00:09:44.919 inevitable bitcoin run, especially because so many people are flocking 167 00:09:45.000 --> 00:09:49.159 out of crypto right now that just increases the likelihood 168 00:09:49.159 --> 00:09:52.080 of an eventual catch up because those people who are 169 00:09:52.080 --> 00:09:55.399 flocking out, where are their coins going. They're mostly going 170 00:09:55.440 --> 00:10:00.559 toward key stakeholders, large players who want to get as 171 00:10:00.559 --> 00:10:03.679 many coins as possible. Obviously, Sailor is by far the 172 00:10:03.720 --> 00:10:07.200 most notable name. It's been well documented just how many 173 00:10:07.879 --> 00:10:11.960 coins he's been accumulating over the last year two years, especially, 174 00:10:13.159 --> 00:10:17.440 you know, micro Strategy has been memed to death over 175 00:10:17.480 --> 00:10:21.360 the last few months, but he's still there. He hasn't 176 00:10:21.399 --> 00:10:26.080 been liquidated, and he's not the only whale who's buying either, 177 00:10:26.320 --> 00:10:31.639 so he's In general, whales are still something to watch, 178 00:10:31.679 --> 00:10:34.679 and I can pull up that chart very briefly. It's 179 00:10:34.720 --> 00:10:37.720 been a little underwhelming. There's not been any major movements, 180 00:10:37.799 --> 00:10:41.480 but at the very least we can see the difference 181 00:10:42.840 --> 00:10:46.720 in key stakeholders here in bright green and retail and red. 182 00:10:47.080 --> 00:10:50.360 You can sleep see it's been a slight fade for 183 00:10:50.639 --> 00:10:54.519 the supply held by wallets with ten to ten thousand BTC, 184 00:10:54.679 --> 00:10:57.720 which we called the key stakeholder tier, and a slight 185 00:10:57.840 --> 00:11:01.639 uptick in retail. So it's it's kind of just been 186 00:11:01.679 --> 00:11:05.879 moving sideways in context here, but retail is still down 187 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:09.399 a lot over the last what is it sixteen ish 188 00:11:09.480 --> 00:11:12.960 days that we have, and whales during that same time 189 00:11:13.000 --> 00:11:16.720 period are actually slightly up, So I'm not too worried 190 00:11:16.759 --> 00:11:19.240 unless there's a huge move all of a sudden, And 191 00:11:19.919 --> 00:11:21.799 I think it's actually a good sign that there's not 192 00:11:22.039 --> 00:11:25.360 like crazy levels of dumping, just a very small fade 193 00:11:25.440 --> 00:11:27.080 going on with the key stakeholders. 194 00:11:27.519 --> 00:11:30.039 Yeah, on the micro days, a lot of ebbs and flows, 195 00:11:30.039 --> 00:11:33.919 but when you zoom out you see the larger trend. Right, 196 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:37.159 So last time we met, we were seeing the retail 197 00:11:37.360 --> 00:11:40.879 going down when we're seeing the whale investors starting to 198 00:11:40.960 --> 00:11:43.840 pick up. But yeah, on a micro any given week, 199 00:11:43.919 --> 00:11:46.600 it could be ebbs and flows there exactly. 200 00:11:46.639 --> 00:11:48.919 I mean, these are the big moves. Like if we 201 00:11:49.000 --> 00:11:52.200 have an all time high here on the fifth or sixth, 202 00:11:52.200 --> 00:11:54.200 depending on your time zone, and then all of a 203 00:11:54.240 --> 00:11:57.960 sudden you get like this crazy dump between what the 204 00:11:58.000 --> 00:12:02.480 twelfth and novembreth, that's the sign that we're in trouble. 205 00:12:02.559 --> 00:12:06.480 But since then they've actually been pretty good. And the 206 00:12:06.519 --> 00:12:09.320 only thing holding holding me back from getting super excited 207 00:12:09.440 --> 00:12:12.320 is retail is also kind of accumulating, so it's kind 208 00:12:12.320 --> 00:12:17.200 of that middle class that's been hemorrhaging coins to these two, 209 00:12:18.080 --> 00:12:20.559 I'd like to see retail start to really move down 210 00:12:21.440 --> 00:12:28.120 and show signs of direness and fear and frankly just 211 00:12:28.159 --> 00:12:31.639 being super pissed off rather than just frustrated and annoyed 212 00:12:31.759 --> 00:12:34.559 like I think the majority are right now. So Brian, 213 00:12:34.679 --> 00:12:37.840 you know, this could be a sign. Not guaranteed, of course, 214 00:12:37.960 --> 00:12:41.840 but maybe in the coming month or so, there's another catalyst. 215 00:12:42.360 --> 00:12:46.279 In addition to precious metals ripping and going parabolic, a 216 00:12:47.080 --> 00:12:49.840 further drives retail to capitulate, Like you're you know we 217 00:12:49.840 --> 00:12:50.840 were talking about earlier. 218 00:12:51.399 --> 00:12:53.159 I don't know if it's more terrorists, I don't know, 219 00:12:53.240 --> 00:12:56.679 whatever it is. You know, maybe bitcoin dumps down to 220 00:12:56.720 --> 00:12:58.919 seventy a k again and they're like, oh my gosh, 221 00:12:58.960 --> 00:13:01.080 it looks like we're going all the way down into 222 00:13:01.120 --> 00:13:03.799 a bear market. That's an event. The whales pick up 223 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:05.840 momentum and retail you know, they're dumping. 224 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:09.399 Yeah, I mean, price is usually the biggest reason. Obviously. 225 00:13:09.480 --> 00:13:14.919 It's usually like if price goes down, traders will attribute 226 00:13:14.960 --> 00:13:17.320 it to something. They might say it's Powell and the 227 00:13:17.360 --> 00:13:19.879 interest rates. They might say it's Trump and the tariffs. 228 00:13:19.879 --> 00:13:23.480 They might say Putin and the ongoing war with Ukraine. 229 00:13:23.519 --> 00:13:26.879 Whatever it is, price is usually the start and then 230 00:13:26.919 --> 00:13:29.159 people are like, oh, this is why that price is 231 00:13:29.159 --> 00:13:32.360 moving down. Now that subject is a big big deal 232 00:13:32.440 --> 00:13:35.320 to me because it's reflecting in the price. So I 233 00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:39.240 think you're spot on. Like sub seventy five K or 234 00:13:39.279 --> 00:13:42.600 something is something I've seen spammed a lot as like 235 00:13:42.639 --> 00:13:45.559 a key support level. It's a big round number. If 236 00:13:45.559 --> 00:13:48.720 we dip below that, expect this red line to really 237 00:13:48.759 --> 00:13:51.840 start to fall off a cliff, which would be the 238 00:13:51.879 --> 00:13:52.480 sign to buy. 239 00:13:53.279 --> 00:13:55.960 Yeah, and even though you know it's a painful thing, 240 00:13:56.120 --> 00:13:57.879 it's actually a good thing for the market. You know, 241 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:01.240 if we are going with this thesis of whales move 242 00:14:01.320 --> 00:14:04.240 the market, which I do believe they are, and clear 243 00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:07.840 the data supports that, it would be painful but very 244 00:14:07.919 --> 00:14:11.039 good for the rebound and the rally to continue from 245 00:14:11.039 --> 00:14:12.639 there exactly. 246 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:15.759 So you know, we're not saying it's definitely going to 247 00:14:15.799 --> 00:14:18.600 go be it below seventy five K, but if it does, 248 00:14:19.240 --> 00:14:24.000 I would expect behavior and the reactions to that to 249 00:14:24.039 --> 00:14:28.039 be the key to kind of light how the rest 250 00:14:28.080 --> 00:14:29.759 of twenty twenty six goes. 251 00:14:30.559 --> 00:14:32.679 And how does the MVRV look for a big cooin. 252 00:14:33.720 --> 00:14:37.240 Yeah. So actually it's looking pretty good right now, as 253 00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:41.360 you'd suspect with this retrace. It's gone down what prices 254 00:14:41.440 --> 00:14:46.120 down since the fourteenth, about nine almost ten percent now, 255 00:14:46.639 --> 00:14:49.679 and that's been enough to push the average trading returns 256 00:14:50.360 --> 00:14:54.200 for those active in the past thirty days down to 257 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:58.919 about negative three point seven percent, So this is officially 258 00:14:59.279 --> 00:15:02.480 slightly under valued. And then the three sixty five day 259 00:15:02.559 --> 00:15:06.080 MVRV is down at negative twelve point three percent, which 260 00:15:06.120 --> 00:15:08.960 is getting back to late December levels before we had 261 00:15:08.960 --> 00:15:11.639 that rebound. So I like the fact that both the 262 00:15:11.679 --> 00:15:15.440 short and long term average returns are now officially in 263 00:15:15.559 --> 00:15:19.919 negative together. They're not in you know, super crisis mode 264 00:15:20.440 --> 00:15:22.960 like they were here in November when we saw that 265 00:15:23.080 --> 00:15:28.240 huge by opportunity. But we may never get to that zone. Really, 266 00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:30.440 the way to look at this is the lower it 267 00:15:30.519 --> 00:15:35.360 is below zero percent, the higher the upside is, or 268 00:15:35.399 --> 00:15:39.039 the less risk you have in opening a new position 269 00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:40.679 or adding to a current one. 270 00:15:40.799 --> 00:15:43.279 Oh absolutely, and I wouldn't mind seeing that go down 271 00:15:43.320 --> 00:15:46.639 a tad bit more obviously, not like November or even 272 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:49.200 you know, the Twerff announcement crash that we had the 273 00:15:49.240 --> 00:15:52.080 beginning of twenty twenty five. But to your point, both 274 00:15:52.120 --> 00:15:55.559 being under water is such a good sign. Maybe Again, 275 00:15:55.600 --> 00:15:58.600 Brian's sticking to the theme here that if there's some 276 00:15:58.639 --> 00:16:01.039 sort of catalyst that drives big and below eighty k 277 00:16:01.840 --> 00:16:04.159 right and the fear is here, the price is going on, 278 00:16:04.240 --> 00:16:07.159 precious metals continue to rip, you have the full capitulation. 279 00:16:07.279 --> 00:16:11.360 These averages here continue to short and long term continue 280 00:16:11.399 --> 00:16:13.840 to go down. It's just a perfect setup again for 281 00:16:13.919 --> 00:16:17.440 like a face melting rally. You know, if those things 282 00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:20.639 are aligned, the stars align essentially. 283 00:16:20.879 --> 00:16:25.120 Exactly, and especially if for USS go down below eightyk quickly, right, 284 00:16:25.159 --> 00:16:29.080 because velocity matters, like eighty k by next week is 285 00:16:29.120 --> 00:16:32.879 a lot different than eight sub eightyk in three months. 286 00:16:33.159 --> 00:16:37.000 So if that happens, you'd see very low mvrvs all 287 00:16:37.000 --> 00:16:39.159 of a sudden, the kind of rival what we saw here, 288 00:16:39.240 --> 00:16:41.919 and we might have a similar buy setup. So I 289 00:16:41.960 --> 00:16:42.720 think you're spot on. 290 00:16:43.360 --> 00:16:45.120 Yeah, And there's something I was sharing with folks. You 291 00:16:45.159 --> 00:16:50.639 know where that price went below eighty k in November. 292 00:16:51.120 --> 00:16:53.840 You know, there could be like a double bottom forming 293 00:16:53.960 --> 00:16:55.720 before you move, and then that's like a chart thing. 294 00:16:55.759 --> 00:17:00.320 It's not guaranteed, but it wouldn't invalidate any structure, just 295 00:17:00.360 --> 00:17:03.200 be a retest of that support level that was hit. 296 00:17:03.799 --> 00:17:06.680 Yeah, there's some whiz kid TA traders out there that 297 00:17:06.799 --> 00:17:09.480 really can follow like the cup and handles and all 298 00:17:09.519 --> 00:17:13.799 those patterns really well, we don't follow that quite as much, 299 00:17:13.920 --> 00:17:17.720 but I do know that there's from the psychology perspective, 300 00:17:17.759 --> 00:17:21.799 there's a lot of truth to the fact that when 301 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:25.920 that first bottom hits, you know, the higher low versus 302 00:17:25.960 --> 00:17:30.079 the lower low matters a lot. You know, recently, what 303 00:17:30.240 --> 00:17:32.559 January twenty fifth, just a couple of days ago, we 304 00:17:32.599 --> 00:17:35.680 got as low as I think it went a little 305 00:17:36.359 --> 00:17:38.160 like the low eighty six k's might have been the 306 00:17:38.160 --> 00:17:40.119 low eighty five k's. I'm kind of zoomed out at 307 00:17:40.119 --> 00:17:43.880 the moment. But if we go below that number on 308 00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:47.240 this next bottom, then we have a good argument to 309 00:17:47.279 --> 00:17:49.759 go all the way to eighty or seventy five. If 310 00:17:49.799 --> 00:17:52.160 we don't go below that bottom and then starts to rise, 311 00:17:52.200 --> 00:17:55.759 that could be a good sign that this bounces is legit. 312 00:17:57.119 --> 00:18:02.440 Yeah. Absolutely. How's etherorem looking as the you know, the 313 00:18:02.480 --> 00:18:03.279 top all coin. 314 00:18:04.119 --> 00:18:08.640 Yeah, so for ethereum, it's pretty similar right now, negative 315 00:18:08.680 --> 00:18:11.880 five a little over negative five or under negative five 316 00:18:11.960 --> 00:18:15.720 for thirty day traders and about negative nine four three 317 00:18:15.839 --> 00:18:19.160 sixty five. It had a nice little jump here in 318 00:18:19.160 --> 00:18:22.039 the middle of the month, that second week of January, 319 00:18:22.440 --> 00:18:26.640 but it's gotten hit pretty hard since the fourteenth, down 320 00:18:26.680 --> 00:18:28.920 a little more than bitcoin. Yeah, it's down a little 321 00:18:28.920 --> 00:18:33.920 over twelve percent since then. Pretty similar mvrvs. I don't 322 00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:38.680 see enough of an argument from an MVRV perspective to 323 00:18:38.759 --> 00:18:41.319 put one in a better bizone than the other. 324 00:18:43.880 --> 00:18:47.200 Good to see it's below, you know, the neutral, so 325 00:18:47.599 --> 00:18:50.599 that's a good sign. And how's sentiment around e theorem? 326 00:18:51.039 --> 00:18:55.279 So sentiment wise, pretty run of the mill. It's very 327 00:18:55.319 --> 00:18:59.240 similar to Bitcoin right now, just average. Most days we 328 00:18:59.279 --> 00:19:02.160 saw a little fomo, this would have been the sign 329 00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:05.799 that Ethereum is getting a bit overheated, and we dropped 330 00:19:05.839 --> 00:19:10.160 right after, so that worked as expected. But we're waiting 331 00:19:10.200 --> 00:19:13.079 for something like this like we saw when we really 332 00:19:13.079 --> 00:19:17.160 bottomed out in mid November, and that negative commentary was 333 00:19:17.799 --> 00:19:21.920 over the ratio of positive commentary, and that kind of 334 00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:23.720 fueled this bounce we had. 335 00:19:25.759 --> 00:19:28.720 And then how about XRP sentiment. 336 00:19:29.079 --> 00:19:33.640 XRP a little more positive. I haven't kept up with 337 00:19:33.799 --> 00:19:36.680 the latest news about XRP as much as some people have. 338 00:19:37.680 --> 00:19:39.920 I don't know if you've heard anything, but we've seen 339 00:19:39.960 --> 00:19:44.039 a couple of weird, isolated bullish spikes on the twenty 340 00:19:44.079 --> 00:19:47.039 fifth and the thirteenth that could have coincided with news. 341 00:19:47.359 --> 00:19:51.039 Either way, XRP has retraced quite a bit and it's 342 00:19:51.160 --> 00:19:55.440 back down to one eighty eight at the moment, retracing. 343 00:19:56.559 --> 00:19:59.319 It hit its high a little earlier than Bitcoin and ethereum, 344 00:19:59.640 --> 00:20:02.400 but it's dropped a little over twenty one percent since. 345 00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:07.000 Yeah, there have been some specific news items, but you know, 346 00:20:07.039 --> 00:20:08.759 to kind of like flash in the pan when news 347 00:20:08.759 --> 00:20:11.640 comes out, everybody's tweeting about it, and you know, you 348 00:20:11.680 --> 00:20:14.960 get a little bit of hype around it, but nothing sustainable. 349 00:20:15.039 --> 00:20:18.079 So I think that's where those spikes and sentiment are. 350 00:20:19.319 --> 00:20:22.480 Yeah. I mean this spike here was as big with 351 00:20:22.640 --> 00:20:25.319 three and a half bullish comments per one bearish comment. 352 00:20:25.400 --> 00:20:28.960 This was about the same as this exact top that 353 00:20:29.039 --> 00:20:32.160 happened back in mid September. So that's not great. There 354 00:20:32.240 --> 00:20:35.440 might be a little too much optimism for XRP to 355 00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:39.039 justify a big bounce right now. You know, we don't 356 00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:41.759 have any biases or bad things to say about XRP 357 00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:44.960 at all, and the argument for long term is still great, 358 00:20:45.000 --> 00:20:47.759 but I think from a short term perspective, you don't 359 00:20:47.799 --> 00:20:50.359 want to see quite this level of fomo that does 360 00:20:50.400 --> 00:20:52.839 appear a lot more prominent than bitcoin and ethereum. 361 00:20:53.519 --> 00:20:56.799 Absolutely, And how does XRP m VRV look. 362 00:20:57.000 --> 00:20:59.319 Yeah, pretty, I mean actually it looks a little better 363 00:20:59.359 --> 00:21:02.279 from a long perspective. It's way down at about negative 364 00:21:02.279 --> 00:21:05.720 twenty two percent, whereas thirty day is about the same 365 00:21:05.920 --> 00:21:08.480 as Bitcoin and ethereum because they had their big run 366 00:21:08.519 --> 00:21:11.799 a little earlier, but it was bigger of a spike 367 00:21:11.920 --> 00:21:15.039 like XRP really went and had a nice surge to 368 00:21:15.119 --> 00:21:18.680 start the year, going all the way up about twenty 369 00:21:18.839 --> 00:21:23.079 seven percent twenty eight percent before retracing the thirty day 370 00:21:23.599 --> 00:21:28.480 mild BI zone. Long term, it's in a legit BI zone, 371 00:21:28.599 --> 00:21:30.440 so this is this is a good sign. It looks 372 00:21:30.519 --> 00:21:35.119 like a slightly less risk asset compared to bitcoin and ethereum. 373 00:21:35.119 --> 00:21:37.440 According to MBRV, good to see. 374 00:21:38.200 --> 00:21:40.160 I know some people may not like this, but again 375 00:21:40.200 --> 00:21:42.119 I go back to you, good to see the short term. 376 00:21:42.119 --> 00:21:45.160 At long term MBRV below the neutral line. That's good. 377 00:21:45.400 --> 00:21:47.839 It means at least a setup is coming in the 378 00:21:47.920 --> 00:21:51.920 near term for a reversal, So let's see maybe an 379 00:21:51.960 --> 00:21:56.119 additional capitulation, you know, based on whatever news I don't know, 380 00:21:56.559 --> 00:21:58.680 and then we bottom out and. 381 00:21:58.640 --> 00:22:01.599 Then we start moving exactly. And I wanted to show 382 00:22:01.720 --> 00:22:05.680 the trending coins too, because we've had a few interesting 383 00:22:05.759 --> 00:22:08.920 ones that are making the rounds right now across social 384 00:22:08.960 --> 00:22:11.839 media according to our data. So we've got the usual 385 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:15.559 ethereum and Bitcoin here, Tether's actually been number one, which 386 00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:20.240 is often correlated with fear. You don't see Tether talked 387 00:22:20.240 --> 00:22:22.559 about a lot unless people are kind of frustrated with 388 00:22:22.599 --> 00:22:26.359 crypto overall. They launched the US stable coin today, I 389 00:22:26.400 --> 00:22:30.240 think that's why, right, Yeah, so that's this appears to 390 00:22:30.279 --> 00:22:34.839 actually be optimistic news with a new US stable coin 391 00:22:34.880 --> 00:22:39.119 being launched, supported by Anchorage Digital Bank and Canter Fitzgerald. 392 00:22:39.880 --> 00:22:44.119 And it's also increased its gold reserves, which people are 393 00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:47.799 going to react positively too because they're increasing reserves and 394 00:22:47.880 --> 00:22:51.119 something that's been pumping like crazy. So they look really 395 00:22:51.119 --> 00:22:53.880 smart to the average Joe right now. I don't know 396 00:22:53.960 --> 00:22:55.880 whether it's going to end up smart or not, but 397 00:22:57.480 --> 00:23:00.759 it's been enough this news to launch Tether into the 398 00:23:00.839 --> 00:23:04.119 number one slot in terms of trending coins. Right now, 399 00:23:05.279 --> 00:23:08.319 Etherium and Bigcoin are doing their normal thing. And then 400 00:23:08.359 --> 00:23:12.240 I've also seen Nexso in the news a lot mentions 401 00:23:12.240 --> 00:23:18.119