1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: All things college football playoff. We've been snoozing through some

2
00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,120
of these boring bowl games and now time to get

3
00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:09,439
to the good ones up next on bet on It.

4
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,039
Welcome in to bet on It. Kelly Stewart here, Marco

5
00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:32,240
DiAngelo front and center, Yanni the Greek over to my right.

6
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,679
We're gonna talk all things college football playoffs and of

7
00:00:35,719 --> 00:00:38,280
course get you those best bets here at the end

8
00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,640
of the show. Quick show today. But we're gonna be

9
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,000
back every week breaking down each round of the college

10
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,840
football playoffs, and of course, including those bowl games. We

11
00:00:46,079 --> 00:00:48,640
actually are considering betting because we know some of these

12
00:00:48,679 --> 00:00:52,759
have been stinky at best. That being said, we're gonna

13
00:00:52,759 --> 00:00:55,640
get right into it. Saturday, twelve pm Eastern ABC, Number

14
00:00:55,679 --> 00:00:59,079
ten Miami three and a half point road underdogs at

15
00:00:59,159 --> 00:01:02,719
number seven A and M total fifty one and a half.

16
00:01:02,759 --> 00:01:04,359
And I know a lot of you guys are going, Kelly,

17
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,519
you missed the Friday college football playoff game. Don't worry.

18
00:01:08,519 --> 00:01:11,159
We're gonna get to that in the best Best Best

19
00:01:11,239 --> 00:01:15,200
bet segment here at the end of the show. I

20
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,239
got stuck with this game, and that's because I let

21
00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,480
the other guys choose first and here's the reality. I tweeted,

22
00:01:21,719 --> 00:01:23,719
I hope they let Miami into the college football plaoffs

23
00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:25,920
could bet against him, and a couple of weeks before that,

24
00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,239
I said, I can't wait to bet against this fraudulent

25
00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,920
A and M team in the college football playoff. And

26
00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,200
here we are, and now I gotta break down this

27
00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,680
game and give you guys a side or a total.

28
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,439
So we're gonna get right into it. Aggie's off that

29
00:01:39,719 --> 00:01:43,640
loss to Texas there in the season finale, but remember

30
00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,599
they were minus seven in the turnover differential throughout the season,

31
00:01:47,959 --> 00:01:50,079
so there was a couple other games where they were

32
00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:52,280
we'll call it on the ropes. We can argue maybe

33
00:01:52,319 --> 00:01:54,519
the Notre Dame game went their way, and of course

34
00:01:54,599 --> 00:01:58,480
that crazy South Carolina game where they came back from

35
00:01:58,719 --> 00:02:02,239
thirty points down to win it there at home. But

36
00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,560
I will say they were better in EPA per play

37
00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,280
and net success rate than Miami. And we already know

38
00:02:09,479 --> 00:02:12,560
they have the better coach here in Mike Elco. Here's

39
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,840
the one thing about the coaching staff, and I will

40
00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:19,280
say this, Colin Kline now headed to Manhattan, Kansas to

41
00:02:19,319 --> 00:02:22,879
be the new head football coach there. Their defensive coordinator

42
00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,599
headed to Kentucky. Lots of people from that staff are

43
00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,360
going to be poached, but Mike Elco's press conference said, hey,

44
00:02:29,759 --> 00:02:32,960
we are focused. We have guys here dedicated to finish

45
00:02:33,039 --> 00:02:35,280
the job. So that is a good thing that even

46
00:02:35,319 --> 00:02:38,120
though typically when your coach leaves is a bad thing.

47
00:02:38,759 --> 00:02:42,520
That being said, let's get back into Miami, who won

48
00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,439
its last four games just easy, right, almost by thirty

49
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,360
points per game. And this is the only time that

50
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,319
they've been an underdog all season along outside of that

51
00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,879
opener where they were a small home underdog versus A

52
00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,960
and M. And I will say this, since the beginning

53
00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,159
I ACC played last season, the Hurricanes have played nine

54
00:03:03,319 --> 00:03:06,360
games away from home, five and four straight up, three

55
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,199
and six against the spread. Remember this team did not

56
00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:13,800
leave the state of Florida until November first. I mentioned

57
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:19,039
the coaching advantage for the Aggies. I also think that

58
00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:23,400
they're getting some positive news here. Le'Veon Moss, Bryce Anderson,

59
00:03:23,439 --> 00:03:28,120
Scooby Williams. Those guys all missed multiple weeks there at

60
00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,039
the end of the regular season, so keep an eye

61
00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,800
out to see if everybody is gonna be a little

62
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,280
healthier and playing Michael go again in that press conference,

63
00:03:36,319 --> 00:03:38,879
and the roster was great, and everybody is trending in

64
00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:44,840
the right direction. Hey, look again, I've got the better offense,

65
00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,479
I've got the better coach and coaching staff. I've got

66
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,960
a healthier team, and I gotta lay just a little

67
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:52,800
bit more than a field goal with a team who

68
00:03:52,919 --> 00:03:56,879
is not that bad at home. I'm gonna lay it

69
00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,960
with A and M. I was a long way, a

70
00:03:59,039 --> 00:04:02,159
long winded way of saying, I'll take the Aggies so

71
00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,080
that I can bet against them in the second round

72
00:04:04,159 --> 00:04:08,840
of the College Football Playoff. Next up, We're going to

73
00:04:08,919 --> 00:04:12,639
Saturday three thirty pm Eastern on TNT number twenty two.

74
00:04:12,759 --> 00:04:15,080
Lane is a seventeen and a half point underdog at

75
00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,240
Old Miss fifty six and a half VR. I know

76
00:04:18,319 --> 00:04:20,639
we can argue till we're blue in the face about

77
00:04:20,879 --> 00:04:22,959
whether these game of five teams deserve to get in.

78
00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,800
It just sucks. We already saw this game once this year,

79
00:04:25,879 --> 00:04:29,279
forty five to ten was the final. But Ole Miss

80
00:04:29,439 --> 00:04:31,920
not as lucky as A and M. Lane. Kiffin's gone.

81
00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,000
He took a bunch of guys with him. Kind of

82
00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,000
break down this round of the College Football Playoff? Is

83
00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,120
there any value on betting tu lane because Old Miss

84
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,120
has got a skeleton crew of a coaching staff.

85
00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, excuse the look.

86
00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,959
Speaker 3: As you can see, it's just been a very busy, busy,

87
00:04:47,079 --> 00:04:49,800
busy couple weeks, and we produced a lot of profit.

88
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,839
And I've gone through and I've power rated every single

89
00:04:54,439 --> 00:04:58,360
bowl in playoff game. I've got the true.

90
00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:02,879
Speaker 4: Ranking based on power ratings, offensive ranking, defensive ranking, strength

91
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,560
of schedule, all of that for every single matchup. It

92
00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,560
took a lot of work, and over the next couple

93
00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,519
of weeks we're gonna make a lot of money because

94
00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,240
there's a lot of mistakes as far as the betting

95
00:05:15,319 --> 00:05:18,279
line goes. And it's not a mistake on the sportsbooks part.

96
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,399
Speaker 3: It's a mistake on the betting markets part, meaning the

97
00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,680
narrative that's out there. The books have no choice but

98
00:05:25,879 --> 00:05:28,839
to put some many inefficient numbers out there so they

99
00:05:28,879 --> 00:05:32,279
can manage risk correctly. This isn't one of those games.

100
00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,959
I haven't gotten to the window with this game. Again,

101
00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,639
with the TV games, we get two or three to

102
00:05:38,759 --> 00:05:42,399
choose from. I haven't bet any of the ones that

103
00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,120
we had to choose from. Okay, but this is what

104
00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,480
sticks out here. Number one, we're seeing an adjustment off

105
00:05:48,639 --> 00:05:51,639
that first game of about a touchdown, all right, and

106
00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,920
that one was in Mississippi. Now I get it, they're

107
00:05:54,959 --> 00:05:58,120
playing in the state of Mississippi again, so you can

108
00:05:58,399 --> 00:06:02,199
slightly give them that home field advantage, but I think

109
00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:07,920
the adjustment isn't warranted as great as it is. Bottom line,

110
00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,399
we know Tulane's phony. They're not the twentieth best team

111
00:06:10,519 --> 00:06:13,319
in the country, but that's just how the rankings work.

112
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,959
In fact, Train isn't in my top fifty. As far

113
00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,360
as power rating goes. Where Ole miss They're right around

114
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,879
where they should be. They're sixth in rankings. Power rating wise,

115
00:06:24,959 --> 00:06:29,480
I have a ninth in my power ratings, but when

116
00:06:29,519 --> 00:06:32,439
I do the mass it only comes out to a

117
00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:36,160
little less than two touchdowns, And I don't think that

118
00:06:36,399 --> 00:06:40,480
the home field advantage, if there is any, or the

119
00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,160
fact that they already played and Mississippi beat them, warrants

120
00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:47,759
those extra few points. I'm also seeing nothing but one

121
00:06:47,879 --> 00:06:52,480
sided public money on Mississippi as if this one's automatic.

122
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,680
But I learned a lot from Marco in one of

123
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,399
the things when it comes to rematches, are the team

124
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,839
that had to blowout, what do you change? What do

125
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,800
you fix? What do you do in practice all week?

126
00:07:03,079 --> 00:07:03,560
Speaker 2: Just go out there.

127
00:07:03,639 --> 00:07:07,360
Speaker 3: Let's do the same thing. The team that got blown out,

128
00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,240
now they have some things to fix, they have some

129
00:07:10,399 --> 00:07:13,560
adjustments to make, and I think you're gonna see that

130
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,879
from Tulane. For them, this is a free role. Let's

131
00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,040
face it. They're not supposed to be amongst these teams,

132
00:07:19,959 --> 00:07:22,000
and I don't think there's gonna be any pressure on them.

133
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,560
All the pressure was on Mississippi again, their top ten offense,

134
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,839
top ten defense. I can't knock Mississippi. This is not

135
00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:32,560
a fade of Mississippi. It's more of a fade of

136
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:38,000
the betting market that I think is overvaluing that first

137
00:07:38,439 --> 00:07:42,160
match up between the two. Again, hard to argue, hard

138
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,279
to defend Tulane that doesn't have a top fifty defense

139
00:07:45,399 --> 00:07:48,240
or offense more or less. But I do think it's

140
00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,360
a lot of points. So TV game, I'll take the

141
00:07:50,399 --> 00:07:52,560
seventeen seventeen and a half with Tulane.

142
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,839
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, same question for you. But regarding James Madison,

143
00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,839
they are a twenty one and a half point under.

144
00:07:59,879 --> 00:08:02,240
Now they're the number twenty four team in the country,

145
00:08:02,319 --> 00:08:05,720
but getting no respect at number five. Oregon fifteen and

146
00:08:05,759 --> 00:08:10,079
a half, Saturday night, seven thirty pm on TNT. I'm

147
00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,519
kind of thinking you're gonna give me a similar answer here,

148
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,839
because that is the reality. You're only gonna get one

149
00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:18,079
way action and it's gonna be all on Oregon.

150
00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no question about it, Kelly. And one thing

151
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,720
to remember is we get in here and everybody that is,

152
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,519
you know, crying of who got in and who didn't

153
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,759
get in, you know, And I'm on the bandwagon that yes,

154
00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,200
Notre Dame should have been in. In my opinion, the

155
00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,639
team that shouldn't have been in was Alabama, but that's

156
00:08:36,639 --> 00:08:40,320
a different story. It is what it is with these

157
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,879
two teams, you know, the non Power five. You know,

158
00:08:44,279 --> 00:08:46,639
you got to have something. And I realize if you

159
00:08:46,799 --> 00:08:50,879
want the playoffs to be the twelve best teams, then

160
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,120
that's the way you gotta do it and go with

161
00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,360
the twelve best teams. But they have it so that

162
00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,519
they're still trying to make the regular season mean something.

163
00:08:58,919 --> 00:09:02,080
If not, you know, we're gonna ruin conference football in

164
00:09:02,159 --> 00:09:05,480
my opinion, with the championship games and everything else. So

165
00:09:05,799 --> 00:09:09,759
here we are, we have James Madison, and everybody automatically

166
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,559
assumes they're gonna that these teams are gonna get blown out.

167
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:17,399
Just remember this with the new playoff format. Okay, what

168
00:09:17,639 --> 00:09:20,840
is the motivation to blow these teams out? You got

169
00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,559
to come back and play the next week. We're done

170
00:09:23,639 --> 00:09:27,600
with the regular season, where sadly it was a factor

171
00:09:27,799 --> 00:09:30,639
in a lot of games down the stretch where teams

172
00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:34,120
were on that fringe of getting in or getting left out,

173
00:09:34,639 --> 00:09:37,919
that they thought about style points. You know what, Oregon

174
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,080
just has to win by a point in the advance?

175
00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,320
Do I want to take James Madison in this game?

176
00:09:44,799 --> 00:09:47,360
If I had to, That's the way I probably would lean,

177
00:09:47,519 --> 00:09:50,440
because this is a team that has played good defensively

178
00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,000
this year. But I'm gonna go a different route. I'm

179
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,840
gonna look at this game and I'm gonna look at

180
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,919
the total. Now, this total has moved some already. It

181
00:09:59,039 --> 00:10:01,399
opened up at fifty and a half, which was too high.

182
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,120
We saw the market adjust. Then we heard some weather

183
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,919
reports where there's supposed to be some rain Saturday, possibility

184
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,120
of rain in Oregon, Eugene. You know it's always gonna

185
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,960
be cold. So we saw this line come down to

186
00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,000
forty seven and a half. I'm still good with taking

187
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,559
the under here, but at the end, I'll tell you

188
00:10:20,759 --> 00:10:23,360
wait to do it because I think when we get

189
00:10:23,399 --> 00:10:26,240
to game day and is VR always tells you the

190
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,159
public's gonna get involved on game day. They're not betting

191
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,559
the under. Why they're not betting the under because you're

192
00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,759
gonna look and see James Madison average thirty seven points

193
00:10:36,799 --> 00:10:40,120
a game this year. Oregon averaged thirty eight points a

194
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,399
game this year. There's no way they're betting an under

195
00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,200
forty seven and a half. They're gonna bet over, so

196
00:10:46,279 --> 00:10:48,879
it's gonna creep back up. But the difference in this

197
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,240
game is both of these teams do play defense, and

198
00:10:53,279 --> 00:10:56,480
James Madison allowed just sixteen points a game this year,

199
00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:01,080
Oregon just fifteen points a game. Both teams have stellar

200
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,559
running games, which means you're gonna see the clock moving.

201
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,759
The teams are gonna be running the football. Both are

202
00:11:07,879 --> 00:11:10,879
very good at stopping the run, which means it's going

203
00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,360
to take longer for them to migrate up and down

204
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,559
the field with these teams, And as I said, Oregon

205
00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:20,080
has no need to pile it on. If they got

206
00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,320
a lead, they'll be content running the football in the

207
00:11:22,399 --> 00:11:24,960
second half. They want to get in and get out

208
00:11:25,279 --> 00:11:27,840
and move on to next week, to their next opponent

209
00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:33,440
in the playoffs. So and mention, look at the injury reports.

210
00:11:33,519 --> 00:11:37,759
Oregon's got some injuries banged up, let's put it that

211
00:11:37,919 --> 00:11:41,799
way at the wide receiver position. Also, they lost both

212
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,159
of their coordinators. That's got to affect things a little

213
00:11:45,159 --> 00:11:48,120
bit as well. I'm gonna go ahead, look it under.

214
00:11:48,519 --> 00:11:52,039
Here's another stat for you on James Madison. Nobody has

215
00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,200
scored more than twenty eight points on them this year,

216
00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,519
and the one team that did score twenty eight points

217
00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,799
was Louisville early in the season. They held eight of

218
00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:03,639
the twelve opponents to fourteen or fewer points. Give me

219
00:12:03,919 --> 00:12:08,039
under forty seven and a half. But wait till Saturday

220
00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,320
to bet it. I think you're gonna see the line

221
00:12:10,399 --> 00:12:11,080
tick back up.

222
00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 1: All right, VR, Before we get into your best bets,

223
00:12:15,399 --> 00:12:17,799
I have a question. So those are both two sides.

224
00:12:17,799 --> 00:12:19,720
I agree with you guys on as a contrarian, I

225
00:12:19,759 --> 00:12:21,559
think it's a lot of points, and the book makers

226
00:12:21,639 --> 00:12:23,600
know that that they're only gonna get one side of action.

227
00:12:23,919 --> 00:12:27,039
So I'm in several contests over on splash and I'm

228
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,440
wondering if I want to get ahead I have to

229
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:34,679
use those teams, right, yeah, yeah, Again, you've got to

230
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:35,320
go opposite.

231
00:12:35,519 --> 00:12:38,200
Speaker 3: Now at that point you're like five, I'm like.

232
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,600
Speaker 1: Five, six, seven games behind. That's a way to get

233
00:12:40,919 --> 00:12:43,960
possibly both dogs cover. I'm doubling up and that gives

234
00:12:44,039 --> 00:12:47,360
me two spots because they're both gonna assuming the guys

235
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:48,840
ahead of me are both gonna take the favorite.

236
00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,399
Speaker 3: Yes, and you have to do that, just like sometimes

237
00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,679
you got to take the worst of the stale line

238
00:12:53,799 --> 00:12:56,559
in contest when you know everyone's taking the stale line.

239
00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,080
That happened to me once when I was at right

240
00:12:59,159 --> 00:13:01,840
there in the morning in the in the super contest,

241
00:13:02,279 --> 00:13:04,799
and I went with a team that was opposite the

242
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:06,600
stale line, so I was taking the worst of it,

243
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,000
knowing I would jump a few positions. It worked against

244
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,720
me and I ended up not cashing. But had it

245
00:13:12,879 --> 00:13:15,120
worked my favorite, I would have jumped up like four

246
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,240
or five six positions as far as cashing, and it

247
00:13:18,399 --> 00:13:21,559
was worth the risk for me. So yeah, I think

248
00:13:21,639 --> 00:13:24,200
that's the way to do it, especially the position you're in,

249
00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,039
you know what I mean, Like you you make a

250
00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,399
good living, you have money, like it's not your life

251
00:13:28,399 --> 00:13:34,279
you want to win, but yes, you don't have to hedge.

252
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,039
You got you could go to. You could try to

253
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,600
win the pot. You're not just trying to make the money.

254
00:13:38,639 --> 00:13:40,720
You're trying to get the money. You're trying to win it.

255
00:13:40,879 --> 00:13:42,240
And if you're trying to win it, that's the way

256
00:13:42,279 --> 00:13:42,600
to do it.

257
00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,559
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I got some I got some pondering

258
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:49,360
to do between now and kickoff on Friday, VR. Give

259
00:13:49,399 --> 00:13:52,440
me your best bet for the bowl games leading up

260
00:13:52,519 --> 00:13:55,600
until Christmas. We're gonna kind of try to section these

261
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,720
out if you guys missed last week's show, but before

262
00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,519
you do, let me know what you got going.

263
00:13:59,399 --> 00:14:02,639
Speaker 3: On over Yeah, it's that time of the year.

264
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:02,799
Speaker 2: Man.

265
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 3: Well, there's just so much value over the next couple

266
00:14:05,039 --> 00:14:09,960
of weeks. I said it since Thanksgiving that there's gonna

267
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,240
be a lot of opportunities to make money. And so far,

268
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,240
so good over the last thirty days, number one in profit.

269
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:19,399
We finished college football number one in profit overall. Both

270
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,720
seasons have been profitable for me historically, so I'm really

271
00:14:22,799 --> 00:14:25,240
excited about over the next couple of weeks. But we

272
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,480
can't overlook college basketball, NBA, NHL two and oh yesterday

273
00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:31,679
in NHL, Like I'm getting a lot of good information.

274
00:14:32,039 --> 00:14:34,720
Partner up for the year with me. That's the way

275
00:14:34,799 --> 00:14:39,200
to do it. It's the cheapest deal we have. And yeah,

276
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,519
twenty twenty six is going to be a really good year.

277
00:14:42,759 --> 00:14:45,360
Oh NFL. This week package isn't up yet because another

278
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,759
five percent's coming. We hit last week's. This week's a

279
00:14:48,919 --> 00:14:52,120
really good one. Best bet I'm gonna have to go.

280
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,000
There's a lot. I have a lot of best bets

281
00:14:54,039 --> 00:14:56,440
on these Bowl games. But let me give you one

282
00:14:56,519 --> 00:14:58,919
that the public's own. So if you agree with me,

283
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:03,000
you probably want to get down because I don't think

284
00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:04,960
this line's going to be there for all that long.

285
00:15:05,279 --> 00:15:11,600
And that's Minnesota over New Mexico. Bottom line, when I

286
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:13,559
look at this matchup, you look at the records, you

287
00:15:13,679 --> 00:15:16,320
look at New Mexico. It's a nine to three team,

288
00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:21,000
very respectable record. More importantly, they did really well ATS.

289
00:15:21,279 --> 00:15:25,399
Also not so for Minnesota. Not only were they seven

290
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:30,799
and five, but they were three games below five hundred ATS,

291
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,480
so they underperformed against the betting market. But here's what

292
00:15:34,679 --> 00:15:38,080
we know when you break these two teams down as

293
00:15:38,159 --> 00:15:41,320
far as power rating goes, I have Minnesota that's in

294
00:15:41,519 --> 00:15:45,600
my top fifty. I have New Mexico, that's not even

295
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,120
in the top eighty. So even though they have the

296
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,240
much better record, they're not even in the top eighty.

297
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:55,799
And here's what I have for New Mexico. They have Offensively,

298
00:15:56,559 --> 00:15:59,279
they're not in the top eighty. Defensively, they're not in

299
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,519
the top nine. Strength of schedule, they're not in the

300
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,200
top eighty. So again they're a nine to three team

301
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,720
that is not in the top eighty or ninety in

302
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:14,480
strength of schedule offensive or defensive efficiency. When I look

303
00:16:14,519 --> 00:16:17,759
at Minnesota, all right, Minnesota, like I said, barely in

304
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:23,559
my top fifty, but top sixty offense, top forty defense,

305
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:28,600
that's a big jump from the New Mexico side. And

306
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,240
then also a top fifty strength of schedule, So they

307
00:16:32,399 --> 00:16:38,120
just had better stats everywhere with a much tougher strength

308
00:16:38,159 --> 00:16:43,759
of schedule. Again, I don't want to spend time wasting

309
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,000
your time with the x's and o's and the matchups

310
00:16:46,039 --> 00:16:48,080
and the names and blah blah blah. I've made a

311
00:16:48,159 --> 00:16:51,679
ton of money strictly off these power ratings in college football.

312
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,559
That's what we're going to stick to throughout these bowl

313
00:16:54,639 --> 00:16:58,320
games because I trust them. Again, the other day, the

314
00:16:58,399 --> 00:17:01,919
market went against US, and we didn't. It didn't matter.

315
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,319
We bet our side and it turned out well. So

316
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,200
let's go with Minnesota. I bet them on the money

317
00:17:08,279 --> 00:17:10,839
line at minus one thirty good about minus one forty

318
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,359
one forty five. Otherwise, just lay the two and a half.

319
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, you have a best bet here,

320
00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:20,519
and this team was on my list, So you got

321
00:17:20,599 --> 00:17:23,119
me a little intrigued. Maybe I should get to the

322
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,400
window with them. Give me your best bet for this

323
00:17:26,519 --> 00:17:28,599
week in college football, and then when you get done,

324
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,519
let me know what you've got going on over at

325
00:17:30,519 --> 00:17:31,359
wagertalk dot com.

326
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,039
Speaker 2: All right, Kelly, we've got we're taking a look at

327
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,119
the Washington State in Utah State. And we always talk

328
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,799
about in these non playoff ball games, you got to

329
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:46,000
look for where the motivation is. You know, what team's

330
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,599
happy to be there or not. And personally, you know,

331
00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:51,880
I think the wrong team's favorite. Let's start with that.

332
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,960
I think Washington State should have been the favorite. Washington

333
00:17:56,039 --> 00:18:00,119
State has had the US against the world feeling for

334
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,839
the last two years. Why well, them and Oregon State

335
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,440
were left as Pac twelve orphans last year when everybody

336
00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:11,039
bolted for either the Big Ten or the ACC. They

337
00:18:11,079 --> 00:18:13,559
were the only two teams left, so they had to

338
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:18,039
scramble to field a schedule over the last couple of

339
00:18:18,079 --> 00:18:21,559
years because they lost all those conference games. Washington State

340
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,920
finished this year at six and six. They played a

341
00:18:25,039 --> 00:18:27,880
much tougher schedule, and you know, when you look at

342
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,640
the power ratings of the teams they played versus the

343
00:18:31,799 --> 00:18:35,880
teams that Utah State played, there's no comparison. But when

344
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,640
you look at the actual schedule, that's where it really

345
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,359
comes into play of how tough of a time Washington

346
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,119
State had. They had a stretch this year where they

347
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,480
played four out of five games on the road. It

348
00:18:51,599 --> 00:18:54,079
was in the middle of the season, and that included

349
00:18:54,279 --> 00:18:57,519
back to back road games. Think where Washington State is,

350
00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,039
you know, the Great Northwest. They had to travel in

351
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,759
back to back weeks to play SEC Old Miss and

352
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,599
then the very next week they had to play ACC Virginia. Now,

353
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,920
I know we made fun of the ACC this year,

354
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,559
but still that's a big step up. And what'd they do.

355
00:19:16,839 --> 00:19:19,680
There were a thirty three point dog at Old Miss.

356
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,680
They only lost by three. Sure Old Miss probably looked

357
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,000
past them. Then they played Virginia the very next week.

358
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,799
You would think Virginia wouldn't look past them after they

359
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,680
almost gave Old Miss a scare sixteen point favorite, they

360
00:19:34,799 --> 00:19:38,440
only lose by two. This is a team that's played

361
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,400
well all year. They also traveled to James Madison, who's

362
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,480
actually playing in the playoffs. They were a fifteen point

363
00:19:44,599 --> 00:19:47,559
dog to James Madison only lost by four on the road.

364
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,519
So given everything they've done, I'm gonna look to them.

365
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,480
Oh wait, now we got another thing, another problem for

366
00:19:54,720 --> 00:20:00,119
Washington State. They're head coach Jimmy Rodgers unexpectedly bowld to

367
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,079
Iowa State. Why well, because that job opened up late

368
00:20:04,319 --> 00:20:09,640
because Penn State finally hired somebody and took the Iowa

369
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:14,160
State coach away, Matt Campbell. So that job opened up

370
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,799
and he took it. So now you've got a team

371
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,079
without their head coach, another reason to go against him.

372
00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:21,480
And I think that's why we're seeing the line where

373
00:20:21,559 --> 00:20:24,519
it is nobody thinks this team has a shot. I've

374
00:20:24,559 --> 00:20:27,400
seen it too often in the bowl games where the

375
00:20:27,559 --> 00:20:30,839
teams rally around the interim coach, and the interim coach

376
00:20:31,519 --> 00:20:33,640
isn't getting the job. So it's not like they're playing

377
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:36,880
for him to have the job. Because they've already hired

378
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,839
somebody that'll take over after the bowl game. But it

379
00:20:40,039 --> 00:20:43,279
is a spot where if they like the coach the play,

380
00:20:43,279 --> 00:20:45,680
they're gonna play hard for him in the interim role.

381
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,440
I'm gonna go ahead and take Washington State. They have

382
00:20:48,599 --> 00:20:52,400
the better defense, they've played the tougher schedule, and we're

383
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,279
getting points. And if you've watched bet on It at

384
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,359
all in the last few years, you know that is

385
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,759
a recipe. I love give me Washington State. They win

386
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:05,599
this one out right, I'll take that two and a half. Oh,

387
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:07,680
I got to tell you about what we got. Sorry, yeah,

388
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,680
I pulled a Kelly and forgot about promoting.

389
00:21:12,079 --> 00:21:16,799
Speaker 1: WHOA, that's not very nice. Marco put me.

390
00:21:16,839 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 2: On the naughty list with Santa Claus. This is a

391
00:21:20,039 --> 00:21:24,039
spot where we've got the same deal that VR's got.

392
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,640
You know, it was a great response last week to it,

393
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,200
and guys, you know we're rolling along. Bowl games last

394
00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:32,839
year went nine and four, We kicked off the bulls.

395
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,759
This season had another winner last night, easy winner. We

396
00:21:36,839 --> 00:21:41,079
had the under on the Tuesday night bowl game, Jackson State.

397
00:21:41,599 --> 00:21:45,559
And this is a spot where join us. We're gonna

398
00:21:45,599 --> 00:21:48,319
have plenty of action. NFL I didn't have a five

399
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,200
percent last week, came very close. Our top play was

400
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,759
a four percent in the NFL last week on Baltimore.

401
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,720
That was an easy winner. We're looking at the cards.

402
00:21:56,759 --> 00:21:59,319
There's a couple of games shaping up that might make

403
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,680
it to the fire five percent status update that later

404
00:22:02,759 --> 00:22:04,960
in a week. But if you jump on board, you

405
00:22:05,039 --> 00:22:07,720
can get a full calendar year three hundred and sixty

406
00:22:07,799 --> 00:22:11,240
five days now. The regular price is nineteen ninety nine,

407
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,319
but we've got a special offer for both VR and myself.

408
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,880
You can get it use the secret link that is

409
00:22:19,039 --> 00:22:23,599
for bet on it people go to WT dot Buzz

410
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,559
Backslash Marco three sixty five. You'll get the full three

411
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,119
hundred and sixty five days for eleven hundred and eighty

412
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:37,240
eight dollars. Aces is the same league link except Backslash

413
00:22:37,519 --> 00:22:40,759
Ace three sixty five. Pick up both of us. What

414
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,039
a one to two punch you can have for all

415
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:47,240
of twenty twenty six Ring in the New Year with winners.

416
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:49,319
Barkoke Kelly, I.

417
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,880
Speaker 1: Know it was my favorite when I did that for Crack.

418
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,519
On Monday, we do a show called KIV and Crack.

419
00:22:54,559 --> 00:22:56,240
If you guys haven't checked it out, he goes, we're

420
00:22:56,279 --> 00:22:59,880
doing what he guess, We're going away for how much

421
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,640
he goes. I used to turn over two months I said, crack,

422
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,000
I don't make the do not get mad of me

423
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,000
live on the show. I'm really sorry. So anyway, that

424
00:23:09,039 --> 00:23:10,920
should tell you how good of a deal it is.

425
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,200
And here's a game that I bet early, and so

426
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,200
I'm gonna give it out as my best bet this week.

427
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,519
And I know a lot of people are on the

428
00:23:19,559 --> 00:23:21,640
opposite side. I mean that's fine. I know it's tough

429
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,240
to beat a team twice, let alone three times, because

430
00:23:25,279 --> 00:23:28,599
that's what Oklahoma's done that an upset whatever Alabama in

431
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,000
the last two seasons, including that twenty three to twenty

432
00:23:31,039 --> 00:23:35,039
one road win in Tuscaloosa as almost a touchdown underdog

433
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,440
back on November fifteenth. But here's gonna be the argument

434
00:23:38,519 --> 00:23:42,319
for all the Alabama betters. Alabama outgained Oklahoma by one

435
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,319
hundred and ninety six yards in that game, had a

436
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,559
twenty three to twelve edge in first downs, and held

437
00:23:47,599 --> 00:23:51,680
a one point two yards per play advantage. So they're

438
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,079
gonna say, oh, well, we outplayed them and should have covered.

439
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,400
Now we're gonna figure it out the second time around.

440
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,359
But I think as an Oklahoma better, I'm gonna say, well,

441
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,880
Alabama gave him the best shot and still couldn't win.

442
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,240
And John Mattier is not all that healthy, but hey,

443
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,039
neither is Tys Simpson. Both of these guys down the

444
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:14,920
stretch have not been impressive. So the deal breaker here. Yeah,

445
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,240
last year's edition of the College Football Playoff twelve teams

446
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:23,440
opening round on campus. All four teams won by double digits,

447
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,960
so that also applies. If you guys remember to the

448
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,519
first game I gave you, guys, Texas A and M

449
00:24:29,839 --> 00:24:33,720
and an average margin of victory nineteen point three points

450
00:24:34,039 --> 00:24:37,960
per game. This point spreads essentially a pick him. It

451
00:24:38,039 --> 00:24:41,839
keeps going back and forth. But I think the difference

452
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,519
maker will be special teams. And if you remember, Oklahoma's

453
00:24:45,559 --> 00:24:48,440
got a little guy nam Tate Sandel who won the

454
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,640
lou Grose Award. That means he actually makes his field goals. Guys,

455
00:24:53,519 --> 00:24:56,319
I do think bren Vinaboles getting some extra prep time

456
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,200
for his defense to play this Alabama team is going

457
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,039
to be the difference maker in this one. Give me

458
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,000
Oklahoma as my best bet for the opening round of

459
00:25:06,079 --> 00:25:08,839
the College Football Playoff, All right, guys. That was our

460
00:25:09,039 --> 00:25:11,920
short version of bet on It for the not only

461
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,799
college but we'll playoff but with the additional bowl games.

462
00:25:13,799 --> 00:25:17,720
We're gonna be back next Tuesday. We're recording early. Maybe

463
00:25:17,799 --> 00:25:20,319
Marco Claus is gonna make an appearance. Maybe he's not.

464
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,240
I don't know. He's getting too skinny. That suit may

465
00:25:22,319 --> 00:25:25,680
not fit him anymore. You might not fill it in nicely.

466
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,559
I don't know. At least we're the hat for us. Marco,

467
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,640
you can do it. But shout out to all of

468
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,799
you guys for hanging out with us for the entire

469
00:25:31,839 --> 00:25:34,480
college football season here on bet on It. And of course,

470
00:25:34,519 --> 00:25:36,519
if you guys are looking for that NFL edition, it's

471
00:25:36,559 --> 00:25:39,319
going to be right here Mega Show. And of course

472
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,079
Marco's Deli will be up Friday per usual,