Speaker 1: All things college football playoff. We've been snoozing through some
of these boring bowl games and now time to get
to the good ones up next on bet on It.
Welcome in to bet on It. Kelly Stewart here, Marco
DiAngelo front and center, Yanni the Greek over to my right.
We're gonna talk all things college football playoffs and of
course get you those best bets here at the end
of the show. Quick show today. But we're gonna be
back every week breaking down each round of the college
football playoffs, and of course, including those bowl games. We
actually are considering betting because we know some of these
have been stinky at best. That being said, we're gonna
get right into it. Saturday, twelve pm Eastern ABC, Number
ten Miami three and a half point road underdogs at
number seven A and M total fifty one and a half.
And I know a lot of you guys are going, Kelly,
you missed the Friday college football playoff game. Don't worry.
We're gonna get to that in the best Best Best
bet segment here at the end of the show. I
got stuck with this game, and that's because I let
the other guys choose first and here's the reality. I tweeted,
I hope they let Miami into the college football plaoffs
could bet against him, and a couple of weeks before that,
I said, I can't wait to bet against this fraudulent
A and M team in the college football playoff. And
here we are, and now I gotta break down this
game and give you guys a side or a total.
So we're gonna get right into it. Aggie's off that
loss to Texas there in the season finale, but remember
they were minus seven in the turnover differential throughout the season,
so there was a couple other games where they were
we'll call it on the ropes. We can argue maybe
the Notre Dame game went their way, and of course
that crazy South Carolina game where they came back from
thirty points down to win it there at home. But
I will say they were better in EPA per play
and net success rate than Miami. And we already know
they have the better coach here in Mike Elco. Here's
the one thing about the coaching staff, and I will
say this, Colin Kline now headed to Manhattan, Kansas to
be the new head football coach there. Their defensive coordinator
headed to Kentucky. Lots of people from that staff are
going to be poached, but Mike Elco's press conference said, hey,
we are focused. We have guys here dedicated to finish
the job. So that is a good thing that even
though typically when your coach leaves is a bad thing.
That being said, let's get back into Miami, who won
its last four games just easy, right, almost by thirty
points per game. And this is the only time that
they've been an underdog all season along outside of that
opener where they were a small home underdog versus A
and M. And I will say this, since the beginning
I ACC played last season, the Hurricanes have played nine
games away from home, five and four straight up, three
and six against the spread. Remember this team did not
leave the state of Florida until November first. I mentioned
the coaching advantage for the Aggies. I also think that
they're getting some positive news here. Le'Veon Moss, Bryce Anderson,
Scooby Williams. Those guys all missed multiple weeks there at
the end of the regular season, so keep an eye
out to see if everybody is gonna be a little
healthier and playing Michael go again in that press conference,
and the roster was great, and everybody is trending in
the right direction. Hey, look again, I've got the better offense,
I've got the better coach and coaching staff. I've got
a healthier team, and I gotta lay just a little
bit more than a field goal with a team who
is not that bad at home. I'm gonna lay it
with A and M. I was a long way, a
long winded way of saying, I'll take the Aggies so
that I can bet against them in the second round
of the College Football Playoff. Next up, We're going to
Saturday three thirty pm Eastern on TNT number twenty two.
Lane is a seventeen and a half point underdog at
Old Miss fifty six and a half VR. I know
we can argue till we're blue in the face about
whether these game of five teams deserve to get in.
It just sucks. We already saw this game once this year,
forty five to ten was the final. But Ole Miss
not as lucky as A and M. Lane. Kiffin's gone.
He took a bunch of guys with him. Kind of
break down this round of the College Football Playoff? Is
there any value on betting tu lane because Old Miss
has got a skeleton crew of a coaching staff.
Speaker 2: Yeah, excuse the look.
Speaker 3: As you can see, it's just been a very busy, busy,
busy couple weeks, and we produced a lot of profit.
And I've gone through and I've power rated every single
bowl in playoff game. I've got the true.
Speaker 4: Ranking based on power ratings, offensive ranking, defensive ranking, strength
of schedule, all of that for every single matchup. It
took a lot of work, and over the next couple
of weeks we're gonna make a lot of money because
there's a lot of mistakes as far as the betting
line goes. And it's not a mistake on the sportsbooks part.
Speaker 3: It's a mistake on the betting markets part, meaning the
narrative that's out there. The books have no choice but
to put some many inefficient numbers out there so they
can manage risk correctly. This isn't one of those games.
I haven't gotten to the window with this game. Again,
with the TV games, we get two or three to
choose from. I haven't bet any of the ones that
we had to choose from. Okay, but this is what
sticks out here. Number one, we're seeing an adjustment off
that first game of about a touchdown, all right, and
that one was in Mississippi. Now I get it, they're
playing in the state of Mississippi again, so you can
slightly give them that home field advantage, but I think
the adjustment isn't warranted as great as it is. Bottom line,
we know Tulane's phony. They're not the twentieth best team
in the country, but that's just how the rankings work.
In fact, Train isn't in my top fifty. As far
as power rating goes. Where Ole miss They're right around
where they should be. They're sixth in rankings. Power rating wise,
I have a ninth in my power ratings, but when
I do the mass it only comes out to a
little less than two touchdowns, And I don't think that
the home field advantage, if there is any, or the
fact that they already played and Mississippi beat them, warrants
those extra few points. I'm also seeing nothing but one
sided public money on Mississippi as if this one's automatic.
But I learned a lot from Marco in one of
the things when it comes to rematches, are the team
that had to blowout, what do you change? What do
you fix? What do you do in practice all week?
Speaker 2: Just go out there.
Speaker 3: Let's do the same thing. The team that got blown out,
now they have some things to fix, they have some
adjustments to make, and I think you're gonna see that
from Tulane. For them, this is a free role. Let's
face it. They're not supposed to be amongst these teams,
and I don't think there's gonna be any pressure on them.
All the pressure was on Mississippi again, their top ten offense,
top ten defense. I can't knock Mississippi. This is not
a fade of Mississippi. It's more of a fade of
the betting market that I think is overvaluing that first
match up between the two. Again, hard to argue, hard
to defend Tulane that doesn't have a top fifty defense
or offense more or less. But I do think it's
a lot of points. So TV game, I'll take the
seventeen seventeen and a half with Tulane.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, same question for you. But regarding James Madison,
they are a twenty one and a half point under.
Now they're the number twenty four team in the country,
but getting no respect at number five. Oregon fifteen and
a half, Saturday night, seven thirty pm on TNT. I'm
kind of thinking you're gonna give me a similar answer here,
because that is the reality. You're only gonna get one
way action and it's gonna be all on Oregon.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no question about it, Kelly. And one thing
to remember is we get in here and everybody that is,
you know, crying of who got in and who didn't
get in, you know, And I'm on the bandwagon that yes,
Notre Dame should have been in. In my opinion, the
team that shouldn't have been in was Alabama, but that's
a different story. It is what it is with these
two teams, you know, the non Power five. You know,
you got to have something. And I realize if you
want the playoffs to be the twelve best teams, then
that's the way you gotta do it and go with
the twelve best teams. But they have it so that
they're still trying to make the regular season mean something.
If not, you know, we're gonna ruin conference football in
my opinion, with the championship games and everything else. So
here we are, we have James Madison, and everybody automatically
assumes they're gonna that these teams are gonna get blown out.
Just remember this with the new playoff format. Okay, what
is the motivation to blow these teams out? You got
to come back and play the next week. We're done
with the regular season, where sadly it was a factor
in a lot of games down the stretch where teams
were on that fringe of getting in or getting left out,
that they thought about style points. You know what, Oregon
just has to win by a point in the advance?
Do I want to take James Madison in this game?
If I had to, That's the way I probably would lean,
because this is a team that has played good defensively
this year. But I'm gonna go a different route. I'm
gonna look at this game and I'm gonna look at
the total. Now, this total has moved some already. It
opened up at fifty and a half, which was too high.
We saw the market adjust. Then we heard some weather
reports where there's supposed to be some rain Saturday, possibility
of rain in Oregon, Eugene. You know it's always gonna
be cold. So we saw this line come down to
forty seven and a half. I'm still good with taking
the under here, but at the end, I'll tell you
wait to do it because I think when we get
to game day and is VR always tells you the
public's gonna get involved on game day. They're not betting
the under. Why they're not betting the under because you're
gonna look and see James Madison average thirty seven points
a game this year. Oregon averaged thirty eight points a
game this year. There's no way they're betting an under
forty seven and a half. They're gonna bet over, so
it's gonna creep back up. But the difference in this
game is both of these teams do play defense, and
James Madison allowed just sixteen points a game this year,
Oregon just fifteen points a game. Both teams have stellar
running games, which means you're gonna see the clock moving.
The teams are gonna be running the football. Both are
very good at stopping the run, which means it's going
to take longer for them to migrate up and down
the field with these teams, And as I said, Oregon
has no need to pile it on. If they got
a lead, they'll be content running the football in the
second half. They want to get in and get out
and move on to next week, to their next opponent
in the playoffs. So and mention, look at the injury reports.
Oregon's got some injuries banged up, let's put it that
way at the wide receiver position. Also, they lost both
of their coordinators. That's got to affect things a little
bit as well. I'm gonna go ahead, look it under.
Here's another stat for you on James Madison. Nobody has
scored more than twenty eight points on them this year,
and the one team that did score twenty eight points
was Louisville early in the season. They held eight of
the twelve opponents to fourteen or fewer points. Give me
under forty seven and a half. But wait till Saturday
to bet it. I think you're gonna see the line
tick back up.
Speaker 1: All right, VR, Before we get into your best bets,
I have a question. So those are both two sides.
I agree with you guys on as a contrarian, I
think it's a lot of points, and the book makers
know that that they're only gonna get one side of action.
So I'm in several contests over on splash and I'm
wondering if I want to get ahead I have to
use those teams, right, yeah, yeah, Again, you've got to
go opposite.
Speaker 3: Now at that point you're like five, I'm like.
Speaker 1: Five, six, seven games behind. That's a way to get
possibly both dogs cover. I'm doubling up and that gives
me two spots because they're both gonna assuming the guys
ahead of me are both gonna take the favorite.
Speaker 3: Yes, and you have to do that, just like sometimes
you got to take the worst of the stale line
in contest when you know everyone's taking the stale line.
That happened to me once when I was at right
there in the morning in the in the super contest,
and I went with a team that was opposite the
stale line, so I was taking the worst of it,
knowing I would jump a few positions. It worked against
me and I ended up not cashing. But had it
worked my favorite, I would have jumped up like four
or five six positions as far as cashing, and it
was worth the risk for me. So yeah, I think
that's the way to do it, especially the position you're in,
you know what I mean, Like you you make a
good living, you have money, like it's not your life
you want to win, but yes, you don't have to hedge.
You got you could go to. You could try to
win the pot. You're not just trying to make the money.
You're trying to get the money. You're trying to win it.
And if you're trying to win it, that's the way
to do it.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I got some I got some pondering
to do between now and kickoff on Friday, VR. Give
me your best bet for the bowl games leading up
until Christmas. We're gonna kind of try to section these
out if you guys missed last week's show, but before
you do, let me know what you got going.
Speaker 3: On over Yeah, it's that time of the year.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 3: Well, there's just so much value over the next couple
of weeks. I said it since Thanksgiving that there's gonna
be a lot of opportunities to make money. And so far,
so good over the last thirty days, number one in profit.
We finished college football number one in profit overall. Both
seasons have been profitable for me historically, so I'm really
excited about over the next couple of weeks. But we
can't overlook college basketball, NBA, NHL two and oh yesterday
in NHL, Like I'm getting a lot of good information.
Partner up for the year with me. That's the way
to do it. It's the cheapest deal we have. And yeah,
twenty twenty six is going to be a really good year.
Oh NFL. This week package isn't up yet because another
five percent's coming. We hit last week's. This week's a
really good one. Best bet I'm gonna have to go.
There's a lot. I have a lot of best bets
on these Bowl games. But let me give you one
that the public's own. So if you agree with me,
you probably want to get down because I don't think
this line's going to be there for all that long.
And that's Minnesota over New Mexico. Bottom line, when I
look at this matchup, you look at the records, you
look at New Mexico. It's a nine to three team,
very respectable record. More importantly, they did really well ATS.
Also not so for Minnesota. Not only were they seven
and five, but they were three games below five hundred ATS,
so they underperformed against the betting market. But here's what
we know when you break these two teams down as
far as power rating goes, I have Minnesota that's in
my top fifty. I have New Mexico, that's not even
in the top eighty. So even though they have the
much better record, they're not even in the top eighty.
And here's what I have for New Mexico. They have Offensively,
they're not in the top eighty. Defensively, they're not in
the top nine. Strength of schedule, they're not in the
top eighty. So again they're a nine to three team
that is not in the top eighty or ninety in
strength of schedule offensive or defensive efficiency. When I look
at Minnesota, all right, Minnesota, like I said, barely in
my top fifty, but top sixty offense, top forty defense,
that's a big jump from the New Mexico side. And
then also a top fifty strength of schedule, So they
just had better stats everywhere with a much tougher strength
of schedule. Again, I don't want to spend time wasting
your time with the x's and o's and the matchups
and the names and blah blah blah. I've made a
ton of money strictly off these power ratings in college football.
That's what we're going to stick to throughout these bowl
games because I trust them. Again, the other day, the
market went against US, and we didn't. It didn't matter.
We bet our side and it turned out well. So
let's go with Minnesota. I bet them on the money
line at minus one thirty good about minus one forty
one forty five. Otherwise, just lay the two and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, you have a best bet here,
and this team was on my list, So you got
me a little intrigued. Maybe I should get to the
window with them. Give me your best bet for this
week in college football, and then when you get done,
let me know what you've got going on over at
wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 2: All right, Kelly, we've got we're taking a look at
the Washington State in Utah State. And we always talk
about in these non playoff ball games, you got to
look for where the motivation is. You know, what team's
happy to be there or not. And personally, you know,
I think the wrong team's favorite. Let's start with that.
I think Washington State should have been the favorite. Washington
State has had the US against the world feeling for
the last two years. Why well, them and Oregon State
were left as Pac twelve orphans last year when everybody
bolted for either the Big Ten or the ACC. They
were the only two teams left, so they had to
scramble to field a schedule over the last couple of
years because they lost all those conference games. Washington State
finished this year at six and six. They played a
much tougher schedule, and you know, when you look at
the power ratings of the teams they played versus the
teams that Utah State played, there's no comparison. But when
you look at the actual schedule, that's where it really
comes into play of how tough of a time Washington
State had. They had a stretch this year where they
played four out of five games on the road. It
was in the middle of the season, and that included
back to back road games. Think where Washington State is,
you know, the Great Northwest. They had to travel in
back to back weeks to play SEC Old Miss and
then the very next week they had to play ACC Virginia. Now,
I know we made fun of the ACC this year,
but still that's a big step up. And what'd they do.
There were a thirty three point dog at Old Miss.
They only lost by three. Sure Old Miss probably looked
past them. Then they played Virginia the very next week.
You would think Virginia wouldn't look past them after they
almost gave Old Miss a scare sixteen point favorite, they
only lose by two. This is a team that's played
well all year. They also traveled to James Madison, who's
actually playing in the playoffs. They were a fifteen point
dog to James Madison only lost by four on the road.
So given everything they've done, I'm gonna look to them.
Oh wait, now we got another thing, another problem for
Washington State. They're head coach Jimmy Rodgers unexpectedly bowld to
Iowa State. Why well, because that job opened up late
because Penn State finally hired somebody and took the Iowa
State coach away, Matt Campbell. So that job opened up
and he took it. So now you've got a team
without their head coach, another reason to go against him.
And I think that's why we're seeing the line where
it is nobody thinks this team has a shot. I've
seen it too often in the bowl games where the
teams rally around the interim coach, and the interim coach
isn't getting the job. So it's not like they're playing
for him to have the job. Because they've already hired
somebody that'll take over after the bowl game. But it
is a spot where if they like the coach the play,
they're gonna play hard for him in the interim role.
I'm gonna go ahead and take Washington State. They have
the better defense, they've played the tougher schedule, and we're
getting points. And if you've watched bet on It at
all in the last few years, you know that is
a recipe. I love give me Washington State. They win
this one out right, I'll take that two and a half. Oh,
I got to tell you about what we got. Sorry, yeah,
I pulled a Kelly and forgot about promoting.
Speaker 1: WHOA, that's not very nice. Marco put me.
Speaker 2: On the naughty list with Santa Claus. This is a
spot where we've got the same deal that VR's got.
You know, it was a great response last week to it,
and guys, you know we're rolling along. Bowl games last
year went nine and four, We kicked off the bulls.
This season had another winner last night, easy winner. We
had the under on the Tuesday night bowl game, Jackson State.
And this is a spot where join us. We're gonna
have plenty of action. NFL I didn't have a five
percent last week, came very close. Our top play was
a four percent in the NFL last week on Baltimore.
That was an easy winner. We're looking at the cards.
There's a couple of games shaping up that might make
it to the fire five percent status update that later
in a week. But if you jump on board, you
can get a full calendar year three hundred and sixty
five days now. The regular price is nineteen ninety nine,
but we've got a special offer for both VR and myself.
You can get it use the secret link that is
for bet on it people go to WT dot Buzz
Backslash Marco three sixty five. You'll get the full three
hundred and sixty five days for eleven hundred and eighty
eight dollars. Aces is the same league link except Backslash
Ace three sixty five. Pick up both of us. What
a one to two punch you can have for all
of twenty twenty six Ring in the New Year with winners.
Barkoke Kelly, I.
Speaker 1: Know it was my favorite when I did that for Crack.
On Monday, we do a show called KIV and Crack.
If you guys haven't checked it out, he goes, we're
doing what he guess, We're going away for how much
he goes. I used to turn over two months I said, crack,
I don't make the do not get mad of me
live on the show. I'm really sorry. So anyway, that
should tell you how good of a deal it is.
And here's a game that I bet early, and so
I'm gonna give it out as my best bet this week.
And I know a lot of people are on the
opposite side. I mean that's fine. I know it's tough
to beat a team twice, let alone three times, because
that's what Oklahoma's done that an upset whatever Alabama in
the last two seasons, including that twenty three to twenty
one road win in Tuscaloosa as almost a touchdown underdog
back on November fifteenth. But here's gonna be the argument
for all the Alabama betters. Alabama outgained Oklahoma by one
hundred and ninety six yards in that game, had a
twenty three to twelve edge in first downs, and held
a one point two yards per play advantage. So they're
gonna say, oh, well, we outplayed them and should have covered.
Now we're gonna figure it out the second time around.
But I think as an Oklahoma better, I'm gonna say, well,
Alabama gave him the best shot and still couldn't win.
And John Mattier is not all that healthy, but hey,
neither is Tys Simpson. Both of these guys down the
stretch have not been impressive. So the deal breaker here. Yeah,
last year's edition of the College Football Playoff twelve teams
opening round on campus. All four teams won by double digits,
so that also applies. If you guys remember to the
first game I gave you, guys, Texas A and M
and an average margin of victory nineteen point three points
per game. This point spreads essentially a pick him. It
keeps going back and forth. But I think the difference
maker will be special teams. And if you remember, Oklahoma's
got a little guy nam Tate Sandel who won the
lou Grose Award. That means he actually makes his field goals. Guys,
I do think bren Vinaboles getting some extra prep time
for his defense to play this Alabama team is going
to be the difference maker in this one. Give me
Oklahoma as my best bet for the opening round of
the College Football Playoff, All right, guys. That was our
short version of bet on It for the not only
college but we'll playoff but with the additional bowl games.
We're gonna be back next Tuesday. We're recording early. Maybe
Marco Claus is gonna make an appearance. Maybe he's not.
I don't know. He's getting too skinny. That suit may
not fit him anymore. You might not fill it in nicely.
I don't know. At least we're the hat for us. Marco,
you can do it. But shout out to all of
you guys for hanging out with us for the entire
college football season here on bet on It. And of course,
if you guys are looking for that NFL edition, it's
going to be right here Mega Show. And of course
Marco's Deli will be up Friday per usual,