Speaker 1: Thirteen by elections in just two years since Prime Minister
Speaker 1: Mark Carney took office, a record number of MPs have
Speaker 1: resigned or are set to resign from Parliament. Four by
Speaker 1: elections have already happened. Three more ridings will head to
Speaker 1: the polls on August thirty. First. The Liberals are looking
Speaker 1: to replace outgoing MPs in BC and Ontario, and the
Speaker 1: Conservatives are looking to hang on to a seat in Quebec.
Speaker 1: That leaves six additional ridings yet to be called. Three
Speaker 1: ridings in Quebec, two in Ontario, plus one in Saskatchewan.
Speaker 1: So what does this mean for the current state of
Speaker 1: Canadian politics? Eric Grenier is the founder of the rit
Speaker 1: dot ca and he joins me, Now, Eric, what a
Speaker 1: time for by elections? Is this just all a coincidence
Speaker 1: or what do you read into it?
Speaker 2: Well, there is an element of coincidence to it. I
Speaker 2: mean some of the by elections that are going to
Speaker 2: be forced over the next few months, or the ones
Speaker 2: that are happening in a few weeks have been related
Speaker 2: to things that were someone out of Mark Kearney's control.
Speaker 2: We had some politicians who are going to be resigning
Speaker 2: to run in the upcoming Quebec provincial election. We had
Speaker 2: one who is resigning due to health reasons. We have
Speaker 2: opposition politicians who've decided that being an opposition might not
Speaker 2: be so much fun. But there is also a little
Speaker 2: bit of the hand of the Prime minister and some
Speaker 2: of these by elections, particularly as he tries to maybe
Speaker 2: change over the team that he inherited from Justin Trudeau.
Speaker 1: I was going to say, does this say anything specific
Speaker 1: or anything to you about the prime minister's leadership.
Speaker 2: I do think that he came in pretty late in
Speaker 2: Trudeau's government obviously, so he didn't have a time to
Speaker 2: put his own stamp on things. So I think that
Speaker 2: there is an element of that. But the fact that
Speaker 2: we're going to have thirteen by elections in the first
Speaker 2: two years of Mark Kearney's mandate as Prime minister is
Speaker 2: pretty unusual. We haven't seen that in over seventy five years,
Speaker 2: so many by elections such a short amount of time.
Speaker 2: As you said, some of it is a coincidence, but
Speaker 2: some of it is maybe clearing us a little bit.
Speaker 1: What does it say about the opposition in this moment.
Speaker 2: Well, we do see that when it comes to the
Speaker 2: Black Quebecua and the NDP. I mean, they've lost some
Speaker 2: MPs who were running provincially in Quebec, and particularly in Quebec,
Speaker 2: provincial politics tends to be the thing that captures the
Speaker 2: most attention, So I don't know if it says too
Speaker 2: much about the Black QUEBECUA or the NDP. Obviously, for
Speaker 2: alexand Bourris, the last survivor of the twenty eleven Orange
Speaker 2: Wave to be moving on is symbolic, but you don't
Speaker 2: necessarily blame him for wanting to try something different at
Speaker 2: this stage. But for the Conservatives, it is a number
Speaker 2: of resignations that some of them are a bit more
Speaker 2: problematic than others. Kathy wagons All stepping aside in Yorkton Melville.
Speaker 2: You know, that is a super safe seat for the Conservatives.
Speaker 2: They should have no problem holding onto that one. But
Speaker 2: to see Rashad Mahtel take that Senate seat from a
Speaker 2: Liberal prime minister take that offer has been opening up,
Speaker 2: has opened up the Shruti Mi Lafield by election August
Speaker 2: thirty first, that one is going to be really tough
Speaker 2: for the Conservatives to hold, considering that they've been losing
Speaker 2: support in Quebec over the last few weeks. And then
Speaker 2: just recently Larry Brock stepping aside in Branford Brand South.
Speaker 2: That is going to be a bit of a test
Speaker 2: because the Liberals were making some gains in parts of
Speaker 2: rural or rural ish Ontario in the last election. We've
Speaker 2: seen the polls continue to move really in favor against
Speaker 2: the Conservatives a little bit towards the Liberals. If they
Speaker 2: could pick up a seat like that, that could be
Speaker 2: the kind of by election result that could really put
Speaker 2: a lot of pressure on pure Pooly.
Speaker 1: Of of all the by elections, is that the one
Speaker 1: you find most interesting in this moment, or what one
Speaker 1: is sort of that you're watching closest, That.
Speaker 2: One will be really interesting. It depends on when it's held.
Speaker 2: It could be held as late as early next year,
Speaker 2: so by then we could be in a completely different climate.
Speaker 2: In the shorter term, the Secruty Milafial by election is
Speaker 2: going to be a really important one because it could
Speaker 2: be the first time the Conservatives would lose the seat
Speaker 2: in a by election since twenty seventeen, the pure Pola
Speaker 2: hasn't lost a seat in a by election as leaders,
Speaker 2: so it would have some symbolic importance. It was a
Speaker 2: really close race last time, a three way race. Both
Speaker 2: the Black Cabiqua and the Liberals are gunning for that seat,
Speaker 2: so that is going to be the really one to
Speaker 2: watch in the short term. Some more by elections in Quebec.
Speaker 2: As I mentioned testing the NDP in Montreal. There is
Speaker 2: a whole series of by elections taking place across the
Speaker 2: country over the next six months. Not all of them
Speaker 2: are really important, Not all of them will have clues
Speaker 2: about where things are going on. But when you look
Speaker 2: at them on the whole, the parties that are doing
Speaker 2: well in the polls tend to also do well in
Speaker 2: by elections, and the parties that are doing do badly
Speaker 2: in by elections. So when you do see that those
Speaker 2: results with real voters match what we've seen in the polls,
Speaker 2: it makes both of those results a lot harder to
Speaker 2: dismiss by the parties that are on the back.
Speaker 1: Heel you mentioned. You know, we haven't seen anything like
Speaker 1: this in seventy five years. Do you expect more? Is
Speaker 1: this bonanza of by elections going to keep going.
Speaker 2: It's hard to think that there won't be, just the
Speaker 2: pace has been so unusual. This is an unusual amount
Speaker 2: of by elections as you mentioned, we haven't had this
Speaker 2: many since Louis Sailora in nineteen fifty, which I think
Speaker 2: is a little bit before you and I are time.
Speaker 2: So to see these many by elections, I do think
Speaker 2: that there's a good chance we'll get some more. I mean,
Speaker 2: there's another six months to go, or even more than
Speaker 2: six months before we get to the two year mark
Speaker 2: of the last election. I wouldn't be surprised if we
Speaker 2: end up with many with more than thirteen by elections
Speaker 2: by the time we get to that two year anniversary.
Speaker 1: Last question, Eric, big picture, If you take a step back,
Speaker 1: what does all this say about this moment in Canadian politics?
Speaker 2: It is a changeover time. I think that is something
Speaker 2: that's not what we are expecting. The kind of changeover
Speaker 2: was going to be when Justin Trudeau was announcing his resignation,
Speaker 2: and I think that's what we're seeing here. There is
Speaker 2: a changeover in parliament. Some of the more longer term
Speaker 2: MPs that were pretty important ones in Justin Trudeau's era
Speaker 2: are moving along. We have some new people coming in
Speaker 2: and we have some shifts that we're seeing in the
Speaker 2: electorate that these by elections will test. The Liberals being
Speaker 2: able to be very competitive in a riding like Secrudi
Speaker 2: me the FIA wasn't going to happen at the end
Speaker 2: of Justin Truder's tenure. Now Mark Karney and the Liberals
Speaker 2: are popular in Quebec, they're able to win seats, so
Speaker 2: this could be a bit of an indication of how
Speaker 2: some of that electorate has been shifting over the last
Speaker 2: few yar and how it is marking a little bit
Speaker 2: of a maybe a bit of a new era in
Speaker 2: Canadian politics.
Speaker 1: Eric Grenier, it is always a pleasure to hear all
Speaker 1: of the smart things you have to say. Thanks for
Speaker 1: joining us.
Speaker 2: Thanks Katie,