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<v Speaker 1>Thirteen by elections in just two years since Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 1>Mark Carney took office, a record number of MPs have

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<v Speaker 1>resigned or are set to resign from Parliament. Four by

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<v Speaker 1>elections have already happened. Three more ridings will head to

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<v Speaker 1>the polls on August thirty. First. The Liberals are looking

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<v Speaker 1>to replace outgoing MPs in BC and Ontario, and the

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<v Speaker 1>Conservatives are looking to hang on to a seat in Quebec.

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<v Speaker 1>That leaves six additional ridings yet to be called. Three

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<v Speaker 1>ridings in Quebec, two in Ontario, plus one in Saskatchewan.

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<v Speaker 1>So what does this mean for the current state of

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<v Speaker 1>Canadian politics? Eric Grenier is the founder of the rit

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<v Speaker 1>dot ca and he joins me, Now, Eric, what a

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<v Speaker 1>time for by elections? Is this just all a coincidence

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<v Speaker 1>or what do you read into it?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there is an element of coincidence to it. I

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<v Speaker 2>mean some of the by elections that are going to

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<v Speaker 2>be forced over the next few months, or the ones

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<v Speaker 2>that are happening in a few weeks have been related

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<v Speaker 2>to things that were someone out of Mark Kearney's control.

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<v Speaker 2>We had some politicians who are going to be resigning

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<v Speaker 2>to run in the upcoming Quebec provincial election. We had

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<v Speaker 2>one who is resigning due to health reasons. We have

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<v Speaker 2>opposition politicians who've decided that being an opposition might not

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<v Speaker 2>be so much fun. But there is also a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit of the hand of the Prime minister and some

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<v Speaker 2>of these by elections, particularly as he tries to maybe

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<v Speaker 2>change over the team that he inherited from Justin Trudeau.

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to say, does this say anything specific

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<v Speaker 1>or anything to you about the prime minister's leadership.

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<v Speaker 2>I do think that he came in pretty late in

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<v Speaker 2>Trudeau's government obviously, so he didn't have a time to

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<v Speaker 2>put his own stamp on things. So I think that

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<v Speaker 2>there is an element of that. But the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to have thirteen by elections in the first

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<v Speaker 2>two years of Mark Kearney's mandate as Prime minister is

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<v Speaker 2>pretty unusual. We haven't seen that in over seventy five years,

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<v Speaker 2>so many by elections such a short amount of time.

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<v Speaker 2>As you said, some of it is a coincidence, but

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<v Speaker 2>some of it is maybe clearing us a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>What does it say about the opposition in this moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we do see that when it comes to the

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<v Speaker 2>Black Quebecua and the NDP. I mean, they've lost some

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<v Speaker 2>MPs who were running provincially in Quebec, and particularly in Quebec,

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<v Speaker 2>provincial politics tends to be the thing that captures the

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<v Speaker 2>most attention, So I don't know if it says too

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<v Speaker 2>much about the Black QUEBECUA or the NDP. Obviously, for

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<v Speaker 2>alexand Bourris, the last survivor of the twenty eleven Orange

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<v Speaker 2>Wave to be moving on is symbolic, but you don't

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<v Speaker 2>necessarily blame him for wanting to try something different at

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<v Speaker 2>this stage. But for the Conservatives, it is a number

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<v Speaker 2>of resignations that some of them are a bit more

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<v Speaker 2>problematic than others. Kathy wagons All stepping aside in Yorkton Melville.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, that is a super safe seat for the Conservatives.

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<v Speaker 2>They should have no problem holding onto that one. But

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<v Speaker 2>to see Rashad Mahtel take that Senate seat from a

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal prime minister take that offer has been opening up,

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<v Speaker 2>has opened up the Shruti Mi Lafield by election August

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<v Speaker 2>thirty first, that one is going to be really tough

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<v Speaker 2>for the Conservatives to hold, considering that they've been losing

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<v Speaker 2>support in Quebec over the last few weeks. And then

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<v Speaker 2>just recently Larry Brock stepping aside in Branford Brand South.

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<v Speaker 2>That is going to be a bit of a test

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<v Speaker 2>because the Liberals were making some gains in parts of

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<v Speaker 2>rural or rural ish Ontario in the last election. We've

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<v Speaker 2>seen the polls continue to move really in favor against

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<v Speaker 2>the Conservatives a little bit towards the Liberals. If they

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<v Speaker 2>could pick up a seat like that, that could be

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<v Speaker 2>the kind of by election result that could really put

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of pressure on pure Pooly.

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<v Speaker 1>Of of all the by elections, is that the one

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<v Speaker 1>you find most interesting in this moment, or what one

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of that you're watching closest, That.

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<v Speaker 2>One will be really interesting. It depends on when it's held.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be held as late as early next year,

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<v Speaker 2>so by then we could be in a completely different climate.

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<v Speaker 2>In the shorter term, the Secruty Milafial by election is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be a really important one because it could

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<v Speaker 2>be the first time the Conservatives would lose the seat

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<v Speaker 2>in a by election since twenty seventeen, the pure Pola

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<v Speaker 2>hasn't lost a seat in a by election as leaders,

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<v Speaker 2>so it would have some symbolic importance. It was a

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<v Speaker 2>really close race last time, a three way race. Both

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<v Speaker 2>the Black Cabiqua and the Liberals are gunning for that seat,

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<v Speaker 2>so that is going to be the really one to

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<v Speaker 2>watch in the short term. Some more by elections in Quebec.

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<v Speaker 2>As I mentioned testing the NDP in Montreal. There is

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<v Speaker 2>a whole series of by elections taking place across the

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<v Speaker 2>country over the next six months. Not all of them

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<v Speaker 2>are really important, Not all of them will have clues

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<v Speaker 2>about where things are going on. But when you look

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<v Speaker 2>at them on the whole, the parties that are doing

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<v Speaker 2>well in the polls tend to also do well in

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<v Speaker 2>by elections, and the parties that are doing do badly

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<v Speaker 2>in by elections. So when you do see that those

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<v Speaker 2>results with real voters match what we've seen in the polls,

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<v Speaker 2>it makes both of those results a lot harder to

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<v Speaker 2>dismiss by the parties that are on the back.

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<v Speaker 1>Heel you mentioned. You know, we haven't seen anything like

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<v Speaker 1>this in seventy five years. Do you expect more? Is

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<v Speaker 1>this bonanza of by elections going to keep going.

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<v Speaker 2>It's hard to think that there won't be, just the

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<v Speaker 2>pace has been so unusual. This is an unusual amount

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<v Speaker 2>of by elections as you mentioned, we haven't had this

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<v Speaker 2>many since Louis Sailora in nineteen fifty, which I think

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<v Speaker 2>is a little bit before you and I are time.

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<v Speaker 2>So to see these many by elections, I do think

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<v Speaker 2>that there's a good chance we'll get some more. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>there's another six months to go, or even more than

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<v Speaker 2>six months before we get to the two year mark

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<v Speaker 2>of the last election. I wouldn't be surprised if we

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<v Speaker 2>end up with many with more than thirteen by elections

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<v Speaker 2>by the time we get to that two year anniversary.

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<v Speaker 1>Last question, Eric, big picture, If you take a step back,

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<v Speaker 1>what does all this say about this moment in Canadian politics?

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<v Speaker 2>It is a changeover time. I think that is something

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<v Speaker 2>that's not what we are expecting. The kind of changeover

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<v Speaker 2>was going to be when Justin Trudeau was announcing his resignation,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think that's what we're seeing here. There is

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<v Speaker 2>a changeover in parliament. Some of the more longer term

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<v Speaker 2>MPs that were pretty important ones in Justin Trudeau's era

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<v Speaker 2>are moving along. We have some new people coming in

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<v Speaker 2>and we have some shifts that we're seeing in the

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<v Speaker 2>electorate that these by elections will test. The Liberals being

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<v Speaker 2>able to be very competitive in a riding like Secrudi

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<v Speaker 2>me the FIA wasn't going to happen at the end

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<v Speaker 2>of Justin Truder's tenure. Now Mark Karney and the Liberals

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<v Speaker 2>are popular in Quebec, they're able to win seats, so

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<v Speaker 2>this could be a bit of an indication of how

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<v Speaker 2>some of that electorate has been shifting over the last

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<v Speaker 2>few yar and how it is marking a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of a maybe a bit of a new era in

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<v Speaker 2>Canadian politics.

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<v Speaker 1>Eric Grenier, it is always a pleasure to hear all

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<v Speaker 1>of the smart things you have to say. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Katie,