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Speaker 1: Wager Talk Today, wager Talk Today, Cyber Monday Today, December first.

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Welcome to the show. I am Steve Merril, filling in

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for Andy Lang. He will be back tomorrow, but I

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had to get on board for Cyber Monday. Anxiously waiting

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for this great day because you get twenty percent off

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everything at Waterertalk dot com with Cyber twenty. We'll talk

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more about that throughout the show. You see it scrolling

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below as well as the show goes. But let's get

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right to it. It's Monday, December the first, a new month,

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the final month of twenty twenty five, and there's some

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big action to talk about. Loaded show here for this Monday.

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Yannie the Greek with the Steam Report as always, and

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of course Bill Crackman, and then I'm normally on Mondays

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in the third spot, but we're bringing on Andrew McGinnis

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to talk Monday Night football and some NHL and then

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I'll have a free NBA play afterwards. So let's get

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right to it. The Steam Report, Yanni the Greek from

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Las Vegas, Nevada. Yanny, I heard you say last week

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when I was on Monday after you that you love

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the week of Thanksgiving, there's so much action. Hope it

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treated you well, and I hope you're looking forward to

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December now.

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Speaker 2: Also, yeah, and I live for spots like that and

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finish number one profit last three days, number one in

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profit last seven days. So the Thanksgiving weekend was really

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good for us overall NFL college football. When all the

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dost settled, we turned the profit, which is always a

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good thing. And this is what we're gonna be looking

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at over the next couple of weeks, Like the market

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participants start to change, kind of like Thanksgiving weekend where

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you have a lot of people all from work. They're drinking,

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they're watching these standalone TV games, they're betting. I even't

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had a girl that I haven't talked to in like

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two years reach out and ask me like, Hey, do

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you know any bets I should place today? I swear

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to you, I'm like, what I out of nowhere? So

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obviously more and more people are being introduced to gambling

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and betting and around the holidays, and yeah, it gives

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us extra extra value, especially with all these bowl games

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and college football playoffs and championship week like those are

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golden opportunities to find some undervalued and overvalued teams.

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Speaker 3: Now steam report real quickly.

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Speaker 2: I'm just going to what's in the steam sheet already,

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because that's where all that gold goes in that I'm

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not using as premium because it's just so much volume.

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But here's some college basketball for you that we bet

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early eight eighty one cow Baptist plus thirteen and a half,

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eight eighty Kansas State minus twelve, eight seventy one, Temple

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plus fourteen and also Middle Tennessee bought that up the

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plus three and they took out the two and a

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half as well. NBA five point thirty five over two

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thirty two, Washington and Milwaukee fine thirty seven under two

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thirty four, Atlanta Detroit fine forty one, Clippers plus six

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and a half fine forty seven, Dallas plus eleven and

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a half. And finally NHL thirty three, Columbus plus one,

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thirty five one thirty thirty six, Buffalo minus one fifteen

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thirty eight, Saint Louis minus one forty five. And here's

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one for you thirty nine Utahl minus one fifty five.

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I had won sixty that got upgraded to a premium play,

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so that was already on the steam sheet for those

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guys that got that early, and then I got confirmation

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and we actually fired premium on utahl at I think

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minus one fifty eight, one fifty nine, but I think

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that's good up to minus one seventy. So that's the

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premium in the NHL also released a premium four percent

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in college basketball. That's on that steam sheet, and I'm

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just looking to get some confirmation on this big NFL

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game tonight coming off of Sunday. A lot of dogs

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got the money, so books don't have all that much risk.

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That's why we're not seeing too much of a line

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move on Monday night so far.

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Speaker 1: Steve, Yeah, Johnny, I was going to ask you about that.

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You know, the Commanders heading into overtime last night, had

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a chance to be the eighth out of fifteen teams

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that went outright as a dog this week in the NFL.

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I believe they came up a little bit short, missed

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the two point conversion. Otherwise we would have had more

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than half the dogs went outright. It was almost half.

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What were your thoughts on that? Obviously, Thursday and Friday

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all four underdogs went straight up. A lot of people

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were scharping about that. You know, nobody likes to play

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the ugly teams in December, especially coming up here. But

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long term, if you play those non playoff teams against

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teams with need, you probably have come out ahead over

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the years with some line value.

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Speaker 2: It's running out of a burning building and running into

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it while everyone's running out, Like nobody wanted to buy

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bitcoin down at eighteen thousand in twenty twenty two when

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FTX collapsed and everybody China banned it and all bad

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noise and news. But when at four and five x

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those people's money within twenty four months, those people that

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had that courage are really rewarded for it. And it's

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kind of like that now in football and all sports.

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Towards the end of the season, we've already concluded who

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the good teams are, who the band teams are, but

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the spread always becomes the great equalizer, just like the

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money line, and what happens is it becomes difficult for

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us to bet somebod these bad teams. I had a

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really strong suspicion that Dolls going to do well this weekend,

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and here's why, because all the noise going into Thanksgiving

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weekend was just how well the favorites have done for

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betters All. The talk was how the books get crushed

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on Thanksgiving. However, the last blah blah blah years, favors

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went blah blah blah, and all you have to do

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is pick the right side.

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Speaker 3: You'll pick the winner.

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Speaker 2: In the NFL, I just kept hearing all that noise

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going into Thanksgiving weekend, and as soon as Green Bay

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beat Detroit, the stage was set for that to continue.

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Speaker 3: So I really wasn't all that surprise.

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Speaker 2: Now looking at this Monday night game, it's pretty simple

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because you're looking at a seven point line move. It's

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what is your conclusion strength of schedule or what you

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actually see?

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Speaker 3: And here's what I mean. You look at the point differential.

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Speaker 2: New England's out scored their opponents by an average about

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eight points per game. Giants' point differential they've been outscored

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by about an average of six points per game. So

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we're looking at a touchdown difference in point differential between

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these teams. No surprise, we're looking at a touchdown points

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spread as well. But here's the difference. The big difference

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between these two teams, Steve is this. It's strength of schedule.

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Do you think New England's legit because they've had the

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thirty second toughest strength of schedule, so no team has

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had an easier go of it this year than New England.

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And yet with that easiest strength of schedule, they've produced

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the ten and two straight up mark. But efficiency, they're

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not even top fifteen offensively defense, they just cracked the

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top ten in efficiency. So stat wise, even though they've

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had the easiest schedule, they're an average NFL team as

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far as the stats go, so on paper they don't

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appear to be a legit ten and two team. Is

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that because the easy strength of schedule you can only

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play who's in front of you. Flip side, look at

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the New York Giants. Nothing to get excited about. Stat wise.

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You know, they're twenty third offensively, twenty eight to twenty

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nine defensively. But they've also had the third toughest schedule,

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So only two other teams had a more difficult strength

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of god schedule been the Giants. So they're the opposite

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end of the spectrum. They're a tow and ten team

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that has played nothing but world beaters. New England's a

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ten and two team that's had a really easy go

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of it. That's what this game comes down to, like,

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are the Giants battle tested because of that? And we've

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seen over the last three weeks they've covered the number,

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meaning they're not getting blown out by margin, which is

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what you're gonna need in this game, kind of a

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double digit win to get the cover. Will that effort

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still be there since it's Monday night, even though it's

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out of conference, even though it's you know, traveling on

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the road to New England. Not really a big game

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for a two in ten Giants team. They're not playing

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for anything but pride at this point. That's what makes

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this game fun. I think to handicap, I haven't fired

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yet again, not the talent, but my results on Primetime

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game speak for themselves. Coming off another two and oh

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sweep had Washington and the over. That's five straight Sunday

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night bets. So are Primetimes Sunday Monday nights. I think

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over the last like twenty two to twenty three bets

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up around seventy percent. So I wait to see somehow

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the line starts to move during the day. Look for

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some confirmation signals that have worked for me as far

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as Primetime goes, and if I get them, a package

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will be up with in the next you know, probably

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hour or two. Otherwise we're gonna look forward to Championship

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Week and Week fourteen of the NFL. No reason the chase,

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because we're in the driver's seat heading into tonight.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you what yah in No matter what side

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you like in this Monday night football game, you're getting

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either Patriots minus seven or Giants plus seven and a half.

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They're both available right now. The juice is obviously a

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little bit different. People talk about this a lot with

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key numbers like three and seven. How much extra juice

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are you willing to pay to take the Giants at

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plus seven and a half right now? They're showing minus

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one twenty in some spots. If you're only getting New

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England minus won ten, you know, some reduced juice books

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you might get one away, but basically can get England

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minus seven flat or Giants plus seven and a half

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minus one twenty. Is it worth the extra ten cents

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for that key half point in this situation.

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Speaker 3: To seven and a half?

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Speaker 2: No, if it was like six and a half to seven,

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because that's the difference between a push and a loss,

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I would I would say yes. And I think it's

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actually like up the twenty four cents. I don't have

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the exact price in front of me, but it is warranted.

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From seven to seven and a half, I don't think

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you're getting the best of it.

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Speaker 3: I think you're better off taking.

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Speaker 2: That just the Giants at seven, where with New England,

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if you could buy it down the six and a half,

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I think up to like one twenty five, it's worth

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buying that half a point, actually paying a little more

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than that one twenty because now you're.

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Speaker 3: Coming off that seven.

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Speaker 2: But going from seven to seven and a half isn't

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as advantageous as going from like seven to six and

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a half or six and a half to seven. That's

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why I would rather take the reduced juice. Reduce juice,

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excuse me, and take the seven if possible, or lay

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the seven as opposed to buying the half of points,

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because again the difference is if it lands on seven,

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you push, as opposed to if it's six and a

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half it lands on seven, you would lose other wise, and.

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Speaker 1: It's entially the public is not necessarily on one side

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or the other. This game did not make my video,

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by the way. Fade the Public went three and one

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yesterday on Sunday, it's over sixty percent this season, so

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with the Dogs covering. Yes, that helped because the four

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public plays last night or yesterday and last night we're

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all favorites, including the Broncos, and boy that Bronco game

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talking about line moves once again. Yeah, was sitting around six.

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I did the video earlier in the week. It dropped

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a five and a half. I really liked not my

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Commanders last night, one of the few times I'll say

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it was my Commanders because I just felt like it

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was an ugly dog off the by. By the way,

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the comments in my fade the public video are about

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his one sided on any game I've seen all season,

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nobody one of the Commanders last night, everybody was like

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Denver Pass, Denver Pass. I liked them more after seeing that,

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and the line dropped a little during the week, A

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sharp square divide.

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Speaker 3: You're not seeing tonight, are you?

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Speaker 4: What's that?

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Speaker 3: Are you seeing anything like that tonight? I'm not really

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seeing that.

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Speaker 4: No, I'm not.

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Speaker 1: I did a standalone video for this game. I haven't

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checked the comments today, but when I checked him yesterday

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on Sunday for this Monday night game, it was very neutral.

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I wasn't seeing a lot of love for either team,

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and once again New England was not a real public play.

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And I think it's because, as you said, the Giants

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have looked serviceable here in recent weeks. But I'll bring

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up that key number of seven again, because yes, the

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Giants have looked serviceable, but there's still what two and

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ten on the season. They've lost six in a row,

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00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,200
and if you look at those recent losses, every one

241
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of them for the last five have been by seven

242
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or more I double digits.

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Speaker 3: Yes they're covering, but they're getting a lot of points.

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00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:42,559
Speaker 4: That's right.

245
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,679
Speaker 1: Seven Really, I think it's the key to let's call

246
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for a push tonight.

247
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,039
Speaker 2: What are the odds that we go to They are

248
00:11:47,159 --> 00:11:49,720
losing by margin, it doesn't appear that way, but when

249
00:11:49,759 --> 00:11:51,879
they lose it has been by margins.

250
00:11:52,039 --> 00:11:54,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they do have Jackson Dart. We haven't mentioned

251
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his name yet, I don't think, but Jackson Darts expected

252
00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:57,960
to be back tonight. We'll see how much of a

253
00:11:58,039 --> 00:12:01,320
spark he is for that offense. But yeah, interesting matchup

254
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,919
tonight on Monday Night football. But they don't seem very public,

255
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:05,320
and you know you would think fading a two and

256
00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:07,679
ten team with the Mighty Patriots. We have one of

257
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,120
the best records in the NFL. You know, Yania, The

258
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:11,720
more I dig into this public data, I use all

259
00:12:11,759 --> 00:12:14,679
these filters, this has become a filter I start to use.

260
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I like favorites a little bit more when they're not public,

261
00:12:17,519 --> 00:12:21,879
if that makes sense. When I see them on the dog,

262
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,720
well obviously, yeah, we love to fade the public dogs.

263
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But even if it's neutral, I'm starting to lean that

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way towards.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 1: It's it's a subset to use here, and we applies

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to night.

268
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Speaker 4: We'll see what happens.

269
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Speaker 1: And by the way, the Giants six and one to

270
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the over their last seven and Jamis Winston I think

271
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still has numbers as good as Dart as far as

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yards for pass and some other metrics this year. And

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he obviously had a monster game last week against the Lions,

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who were in a bit of tailspin as well. Yanni,

275
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,320
it's Cyber Monday, Instant twenty percent off anything. Everything you

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Speaker 2: Yeah, jump on board for the next couple of weeks

280
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,480
and more like I said, I'm really excited about the

281
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Bold season. Historically the numbers speak for themselves, having a

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phenomenal college football season up over one hundred and twenty

283
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units profitable in NFL as well. Yeah, just excited for

284
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what's ahead. Lock in for long term. If you're a

285
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regular subscriber. You also get the steam sheet free, so

286
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it's not extra for subscribers, so you get all everything

287
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289
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want to piggyback. As far as the premiums, you see

290
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the volumes very very tightened now and only firing the

291
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very strongest mostly all four percents in there. So again

292
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excited about the last results of late and looking forward

293
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to the next couple of weeks. Let's do some damage

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over the holiday season. Best of luck to everybody.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Johnny, great seeing you as always. And he said

296
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:54,480
he had a great week, Well he did. He's number

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one the last seven days and net profit at way

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to top go over twenty five units in just seven days.

299
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300
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at wagertalk dot com. All right, let's bring on the

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00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,240
crack man. I'm excited to talk to Bill this first time.

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I think we've ever done a show together actually on

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wager Talk TV. Bill, good to see you. Hope you

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00:14:16,799 --> 00:14:18,840
had a nice Thanksgiving weekend as well. But I'm sure

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00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:20,320
it's a busy workfield one.

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Speaker 5: Yes, yes, hey, Steve, Yeah, doing about twelve or thirteen

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00:14:24,399 --> 00:14:25,120
shows a week.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 5: I do my Fox Sports radio show on the weekends,

312
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but I also do other Fox hits throughout the week,

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00:14:31,639 --> 00:14:35,480
promoting that show, commercials for one of the sites, and

314
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,000
vsen and tons of things on wager Talk Now. So

315
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,679
I have this show I do Monday Morning Kelly Kelly

316
00:14:42,679 --> 00:14:44,320
and Vegas, and I do a show, and I'm doing

317
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,320
a show at Alan Boston, which we just filmed Yesterday's up.

318
00:14:48,399 --> 00:14:51,679
It's up now. Alan one of the genius minds in

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00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,080
the industry. It's always good to pick his brand. I

320
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,320
put a Q and A up for that and yeah,

321
00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,440
it's going going really good though, Steve. I appreciate your

322
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,159
stuff bet against the Public, like you said, it's fade

323
00:15:03,159 --> 00:15:04,639
the public, because that was the name of it, is

324
00:15:04,679 --> 00:15:06,440
faded the public, like sixty percent this year.

325
00:15:07,159 --> 00:15:09,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's worked well, It's worked well over

326
00:15:09,799 --> 00:15:12,759
the years. Last year was interesting because September and then

327
00:15:12,799 --> 00:15:16,120
of course October was probably the best favorite month ever

328
00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:19,200
in NFL history last year. And then the public when

329
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:20,840
they take it, they give it the back, and they

330
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,759
did the second half of the season last year. But

331
00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,159
from this year, from Week one on, it's been consistent,

332
00:15:26,279 --> 00:15:29,679
just a solid sixty. I'm usually a few different filters

333
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,240
this year, so a little more selective maybe is helping.

334
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,559
I'm not just throwing everything out there for the video.

335
00:15:34,639 --> 00:15:36,720
But yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

336
00:15:36,759 --> 00:15:36,879
Speaker 4: Man.

337
00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:39,320
Speaker 1: What is your take? Half the underdogs went out right

338
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,120
this week? Had the Commanders pulled it out with a

339
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:42,559
two point conversion, I think it would have been eight

340
00:15:42,559 --> 00:15:43,320
out of the fifteen.

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Speaker 5: What's my take? Yeah, I'll have to bring out the

342
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,840
collection bucket for the pokers. But I usually on the street,

343
00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:52,960
you know, I'm on the street there trying to help

344
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,960
them every once in a while when they probably on

345
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:59,919
Twitter or whatever other forms of social media. That's not

346
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,720
gonna happen the rest of the year. It's not gonna

347
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,679
happen this year. Books are making a fortune. Thursday and

348
00:16:04,759 --> 00:16:08,320
Friday might have been the most profitable twenty four hours

349
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,559
sports books had ever had. That's how much money they made.

350
00:16:12,879 --> 00:16:16,600
People put in Baltimore and Eagles in their money line parlay. Oh,

351
00:16:16,639 --> 00:16:21,600
this is just an enhancer for the parlays, and books

352
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,720
made a fortune. I talked to someone this morning who

353
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,240
asked me some questions, who I really respect in the industry.

354
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,720
We're going back and forth, and he said he'd never

355
00:16:30,759 --> 00:16:33,080
seen anything like it in his in his operations. So,

356
00:16:34,039 --> 00:16:35,639
you know, I talked to a lot of these books

357
00:16:35,639 --> 00:16:37,879
on the strip, and you know, they're very honest to

358
00:16:37,879 --> 00:16:40,320
me as a long as I don't reveal, which you know,

359
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,200
the inside information of the sportsbook. But they're doing very,

360
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,639
very well. And people just throw these money lines in

361
00:16:47,679 --> 00:16:49,559
there and thinking, oh, yeah, that's an easy win. Well,

362
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,559
I've been saying for thirty years on show since the

363
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:56,080
mid nineties with Larry Grossman and Lem Banker here in

364
00:16:56,159 --> 00:17:00,559
Las Vegas, talking about parody in the league and the NFL.

365
00:17:00,679 --> 00:17:03,960
Any given Sunday, anything cannon will happen. And you know,

366
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:05,960
people get upset at me. There was a lot of

367
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:07,519
guys that used to sell games, say, crack, what are

368
00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:10,319
you doing talking about the NFL. Well, I'm just gonna

369
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,480
tell you. I mean, I bet, I bet props. I'll

370
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,640
throw a side, a first half side. I'll throw something

371
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,079
in there in the marketplace. Yesterday I had a first

372
00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:21,519
half that I threw up there. It's only because of

373
00:17:21,559 --> 00:17:24,920
the lines that day. It's very hard to beat a

374
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,519
full line, a full spread, you know, thirty minutes before

375
00:17:28,519 --> 00:17:30,960
a game. It's a very efficient market. So I'm gonna

376
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,680
throw things out there that I feel have overmoved, or

377
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,480
of course player props, which I've done very well. Last

378
00:17:38,519 --> 00:17:43,319
week perfect example again, another twenty and twenty and twenty

379
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,240
one record over at wager Talk, plus twelve point four

380
00:17:46,319 --> 00:17:51,599
units on my unit sizes. And yeah, NCAA Basketball led

381
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:56,359
the way there eleven and eleven and seven, and NBA

382
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,400
and NFL props broke about it. Want to one a

383
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,960
hair for the week? NCAA Football four and three. Uh,

384
00:18:02,039 --> 00:18:04,599
it's been I gotta be blunt, it's been since September.

385
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:09,440
I'm having really good weeks, especially with the with the props.

386
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,400
It's just funny, right, Now, someone that was someone I

387
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,559
really respect just asked me to uh. He just said, hey,

388
00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:16,839
this looks like a pretty good line here at Dallas

389
00:18:16,839 --> 00:18:19,839
plus three and a half as we speak. Uh is

390
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:21,920
a live bet if anyone has any gain, I don't.

391
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:25,200
I really don't do an NFL unless it's now right now,

392
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,359
six days before the game. This is uh, well, this

393
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,599
is actually Thursday night game Cowboys plus three and a half,

394
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,039
which I'm gonna make. I used, this is unusual, and

395
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,400
I make a live bet. There's a live bet for

396
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,400
you guys, a bet on the Cowboys. There a live bet.

397
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,119
The Cowboys usually don't do that on air, but just

398
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,880
what happens that happened there? Cowboys plus three and a half? First,

399
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,559
the Lions, Boy, I gotta tell you, though, are these

400
00:18:48,599 --> 00:18:51,839
Cowboys frauds? I don't know. They've played so bad at

401
00:18:51,839 --> 00:18:54,960
the beginning of the year now they've come on. But

402
00:18:55,079 --> 00:18:58,079
maybe the Lions are frauds. You know the Lions. You look,

403
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,839
you look at these pre flopbods. The beginning of the season,

404
00:19:01,279 --> 00:19:03,680
you had Buffalo Bill's favorite to win a Super Bowl.

405
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,599
You had the Lions and Kansas City real close behind them.

406
00:19:08,079 --> 00:19:10,480
Now there's yes, nose up at I love so many

407
00:19:10,559 --> 00:19:13,799
sportsbooks that do this. Bet MGM Caesars if you're allowed

408
00:19:13,799 --> 00:19:15,640
to play. Of course I'm thrown out for using my brain.

409
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,279
But for you guys Caesars, I think the DraftKings and

410
00:19:19,279 --> 00:19:22,039
Fandls do them too. They put yes no playoffs. I

411
00:19:22,039 --> 00:19:25,000
mean Kansas City now is pick them minus won ten

412
00:19:25,079 --> 00:19:29,200
both ways, the Lions minus won ten both ways. Will

413
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,960
they make the playoffs? Boy, I don't want to sound

414
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,200
like a square here. I would think one of two

415
00:19:34,519 --> 00:19:37,039
will definitely make it. I think you're almost free roll

416
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:40,680
on the second one. But anyway, I did just bet

417
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,240
the Cowboys there and that in that spot. But yes, Steve,

418
00:19:43,279 --> 00:19:45,839
it's been the year of parody. Like I said, thirty years,

419
00:19:45,839 --> 00:19:49,279
I've been saying this, NFL sides anything cannon will happen,

420
00:19:49,319 --> 00:19:52,119
And sure enough this weekend really approved it. With Thursday

421
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:56,319
Friday into the Sunday. It's so tough to beat the NFL.

422
00:19:56,599 --> 00:19:59,000
I have a challenge for years with my guys on

423
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,519
on Fox Sports Radio, Jeff Schwartz and Brian Though, and

424
00:20:02,799 --> 00:20:05,720
we have a challenge called the crack Challenge. Five minutes

425
00:20:05,759 --> 00:20:09,079
before the game start, you know, and everyone's up online

426
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,400
at the counters across America, making their bets at the sportsbooks.

427
00:20:12,839 --> 00:20:17,480
Five games against the spread impossible, impossible. Both guys have

428
00:20:17,599 --> 00:20:20,920
really tried. They fared well this year. Brian's actually up

429
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,839
a couple of units. He's fading fast, though I hate

430
00:20:23,839 --> 00:20:27,880
to say it. I love Brian Jeff Schwartz. I'm gonna

431
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,599
open up a site I think bet against Jeff dot Com.

432
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,240
He's that's how bad he's going with my buddy. But

433
00:20:33,319 --> 00:20:36,440
I can't talk about Jeff's like six foot five former

434
00:20:36,519 --> 00:20:38,880
NFL player. I shouldn't be talking about him. He's my buddy, though.

435
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,160
That's how tough it is to beat NFL sides five

436
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,720
minutes before the spread. When everyone does, everyone wants to

437
00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:47,799
go on in line and they want to stand in

438
00:20:47,839 --> 00:20:51,359
line and beat this. You know why, Steve, They don't

439
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,880
know who they want. They're online literally ten five to

440
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,119
ten minutes before the game starts to put a bet

441
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,799
in against the most efficient line in the world, and

442
00:20:59,839 --> 00:21:02,079
they just have to have action. They have to have action.

443
00:21:02,279 --> 00:21:05,039
I say, that's fine, no big deal. Have action on

444
00:21:05,079 --> 00:21:10,240
something that's beatable long term NFL props. Maybe some correlation,

445
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,119
maybe some totals, maybe some first half totals even a

446
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,920
first half side Like yesterday, I gave out Miami first

447
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,519
half when the game had a major line move, get

448
00:21:19,559 --> 00:21:22,160
the first line. The first half did not follow suit.

449
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 4: So just what happens.

450
00:21:24,279 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 5: Very strange yesterday by me giving up that first half

451
00:21:27,279 --> 00:21:29,519
that one, but the game did not win the game

452
00:21:29,559 --> 00:21:30,920
like you could have got to push, but most people

453
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,759
got a loss to day at the game. So yeah, situationally,

454
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:39,079
NFL props are the thing to beat in the NFL.

455
00:21:39,519 --> 00:21:42,599
College basketball. I love this time of the year. I'm

456
00:21:42,599 --> 00:21:44,920
gonna beat college basketball. I just go off, right, Steve,

457
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,759
you almost have no words. I can just go off

458
00:21:47,799 --> 00:21:49,720
on tangents for an hour straight talking.

459
00:21:50,039 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 4: Now.

460
00:21:50,319 --> 00:21:52,519
Speaker 1: I love it because right after the show today, I'm

461
00:21:52,519 --> 00:21:55,279
going to record my Thursday Night NFL video. And we

462
00:21:55,319 --> 00:21:57,279
took it on the chin last Thursday. We were eleven

463
00:21:57,319 --> 00:22:00,559
and two on the free Thursday night plays. Obviously a

464
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,920
Thursday was not kind for us either in Thanksgiving. But

465
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,200
I'm already looking at this Dallas Detroit game, and you're right,

466
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,200
and the south point just moved to three and a half.

467
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,440
In Vegas, Circa had moved about an hour ago. A

468
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,519
lot of the other placers are hanging three still, So

469
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:14,640
three to three and a half is available right now

470
00:22:14,599 --> 00:22:17,319
in that Detroit Dallas game, and that's pretty important regardless

471
00:22:17,319 --> 00:22:18,200
of what side you'd like.

472
00:22:18,279 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 5: Let show alive bet here, here we go, Look, let's

473
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,960
do it again. Just I hate when sports books don't

474
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,279
move off me home joking, there's another there's another three thousand,

475
00:22:27,559 --> 00:22:31,640
let's see. So I definitely put my money where my

476
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,680
mouth is. I don't just talk and I fire.

477
00:22:34,799 --> 00:22:35,279
Speaker 4: I fire.

478
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,799
Speaker 5: So I usually don't bet that much on NFL sides.

479
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,359
But we'll see what We'll see what happens here. This

480
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,400
should be a good spot for the Cowboys. Plus that's

481
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,359
three and a half. They're playing that much better. Lions

482
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,160
are almost a must win. But guess what, everyone's a

483
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,000
must win Kansas City every week. I must win, must win.

484
00:22:51,279 --> 00:22:54,079
I love betting against must wins. Why I get that

485
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,839
extra half a point? I get that extra taxes, tax

486
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:01,920
involved the public loves. But who's betting? Who's betting the

487
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:06,119
Cowboys on the road? I guess a primetime game, in

488
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,240
the primetime game with RSTA Lions, Well, Green Bay just

489
00:23:09,279 --> 00:23:12,839
proved that was wrong. I actually liked then. I'm sorry,

490
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,319
I actually like Detroit this week.

491
00:23:14,559 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: But so to that was one I missed on Thursday

492
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:18,799
when we were talking about the Thursday games. I mean,

493
00:23:18,799 --> 00:23:22,079
that's why I'm hesitating on this as well, because I

494
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,079
thought that was the spot for the Lions. Even though

495
00:23:24,079 --> 00:23:27,039
I like the Packers this year, these are two bad

496
00:23:27,079 --> 00:23:28,880
defensive teams. I think we have to throw that out there.

497
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,240
I did have the over in the Detroit game also,

498
00:23:31,319 --> 00:23:33,440
so I got a little bit back with that on Thursday.

499
00:23:34,079 --> 00:23:36,720
Dallas obviously is terrible defensively for the most part. By

500
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,599
the way, built fifty three and a half for this total.

501
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,279
I'm even seeing a fifty four offshore right now. And

502
00:23:42,319 --> 00:23:45,599
then let's go down to Sunday's games. What a thirty

503
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,079
three and a half showing between Tennessee and Cleveland. A

504
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,359
twenty point difference between the high and the lows. And

505
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,599
this is the highest total this week on Thursday night FOTA, that.

506
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 5: Is the lowest total I've seen in the NFL in

507
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:57,599
a long time. Without snow or weather.

508
00:23:58,079 --> 00:23:59,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't checked the weather yet, but I'll tell

509
00:23:59,799 --> 00:24:01,640
you what, Man of the Titans, bad you talked about

510
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,480
bad teams. I thoroughly agree with you. I said at

511
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,279
the Yanni earlier. I ran numbers on this decades ago.

512
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,559
If you blindly play non playoff teams against must win scenarios,

513
00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:12,720
you make money in the NFL in December. For the

514
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,400
reasons you mentioned, Cleveland obviously doesn't qualify. That's a nothing,

515
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,319
nothing game there. But I also at the fade the public,

516
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,000
the one filter I use, and by the way, it's

517
00:24:21,039 --> 00:24:23,240
a forty one to twenty seven now, fade in the public.

518
00:24:23,519 --> 00:24:25,079
So that's one of the angles you could use in

519
00:24:25,079 --> 00:24:26,880
your kickoff, I guess, because youre probably getting a little

520
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,200
extra line value sometimes is to not play the really,

521
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,759
really bad teams when you're fading the public, and the

522
00:24:32,759 --> 00:24:35,119
Titans the Saints, the public's been against them every week,

523
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:36,440
And if you took those two out of the equation,

524
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,079
I bet you're hitting even higher this year. Titan's really

525
00:24:39,079 --> 00:24:40,200
bad right now. Offensively.

526
00:24:40,599 --> 00:24:43,759
Speaker 5: By the way, folks, in case there's weather in that

527
00:24:43,759 --> 00:24:46,599
Cleveland game, I'm gonna look for you now. It can

528
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,240
even go lower. That total may even go lower. And

529
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,200
I'll be blunt when I love when the game comes

530
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,519
on on a Sunday and they show the snow and

531
00:24:56,559 --> 00:24:59,359
the snow plows and everything going on. Well, let me

532
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,759
just tell you something. After the public cumulily, BET's enough

533
00:25:02,799 --> 00:25:05,839
money to move that under. I go in and bet

534
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,079
the over over is the right play After the public buris,

535
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,559
especially on a total like this, God forbit it goes

536
00:25:11,599 --> 00:25:14,720
down because there was some Patriot games before that went

537
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,559
down two and a half three four points, key number

538
00:25:17,599 --> 00:25:20,519
thirty one here, that will be unbelievable, But even thirty

539
00:25:20,519 --> 00:25:23,200
three good number to go over there. If there is

540
00:25:23,319 --> 00:25:27,160
weather and the bets are based on weather and alignment,

541
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,440
what's based on weather? So that's just something that spontaneously

542
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,000
I thought about money.

543
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Bill, I got the weather report for you here.

544
00:25:34,319 --> 00:25:36,119
So one thing I'd like to do too, I'll come

545
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,200
up behind the scenes of how I look at these things.

546
00:25:39,039 --> 00:25:40,960
DraftKings is one that puts out I believe the super

547
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,880
book in Las Vegas does they put out numbers a

548
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,480
week before so you can always compare to what the

549
00:25:44,559 --> 00:25:47,039
number would have been. I'm just putting up draft Kings.

550
00:25:47,039 --> 00:25:48,640
By the way, Odds Logic screen. You can do all

551
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,759
this for free. I've got a seven or eight trial available.

552
00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:54,240
Steve merrilwager talk dot com. But last week on Tuesday,

553
00:25:54,279 --> 00:25:56,240
the look aheadline was thirty five and a half. It

554
00:25:56,319 --> 00:25:59,119
quickly got bet down within an hour to thirty four

555
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,920
and a half. So the look aheadline last week was

556
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,839
thirty four and a half. It's now thirty three and

557
00:26:03,839 --> 00:26:06,000
a half, so not a lot of movement. The weather

558
00:26:06,079 --> 00:26:08,920
report is calling for half an inch on Saturday Saturday

559
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,200
night into Sunday morning, a half a point two inches,

560
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,079
so about a half an inch of snow in Cleveland

561
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,759
is like seventy degrees sunshine in Miami.

562
00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 4: That's nothing.

563
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 1: The highest thirty one degrees on Sunday twenty three low.

564
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,799
None of that's gonna affect scoring for the most part,

565
00:26:22,839 --> 00:26:25,079
but there is fourteen mile per hour wins every day.

566
00:26:25,079 --> 00:26:27,400
That's not extreme. That's what I look for is the wind.

567
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,079
I thoroughly agree with you about snow and rain. Rain

568
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,000
actually helps scoring, and you'll still see those totals drop

569
00:26:33,039 --> 00:26:36,039
a couple points when it's a rainy game. Wide receivers,

570
00:26:36,079 --> 00:26:37,920
running backs, they know which way they're cutting when they

571
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,160
have the balls and advantage for slippery situations. And it

572
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,119
doesn't look like weather's gonna be a huge issue here.

573
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,839
It's gonna be more the Titans and Browns offenses, which

574
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:47,000
are gonna be the huge issue.

575
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, and we're not recommending a play by any by

576
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,720
the way, on we're just talking about situational games that

577
00:26:52,759 --> 00:26:55,319
could happen. I will give a free play out here though.

578
00:26:55,319 --> 00:26:57,680
It's funny. I just here there's my south Point account

579
00:26:57,799 --> 00:27:00,599
and there's the two bets I just made on But

580
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,039
you can look at that bet below. That is a

581
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,160
five hundred dollars bet which I bought the three in

582
00:27:06,279 --> 00:27:09,920
college basketball, that is Mid Tennessee State plus three minus

583
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,240
twenty South Point fmax bet. You can bet on the

584
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,359
apps five hundred bucks. I would have betted over and

585
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,960
over again until the cows came home. But however, they

586
00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:19,759
move it right after I bet that, which I don't blame.

587
00:27:19,799 --> 00:27:21,759
They should move it. That's the way you're supposed to book.

588
00:27:21,759 --> 00:27:23,960
He's supposed to book off guys that win long term,

589
00:27:24,039 --> 00:27:26,839
and you move the line. So I do like Mid

590
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,039
Tennessee State and for the books that allow you ten

591
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,960
cents extra to buy plus three, the two in the

592
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:37,000
three is very, very valuable in college basketball. I buy

593
00:27:37,079 --> 00:27:39,640
up to the number, not off the number, or not

594
00:27:39,839 --> 00:27:42,640
to the half. So if you're betting a favorite minus

595
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,920
two and a half, I'll go minus two minus twenty.

596
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,640
You're betting the dog plus two and a half. You'll

597
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,200
go plus three minus twenty. This is one of the

598
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,319
ones I do like. But on a roll here with

599
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:57,640
college basketball, I hope to continue that. However, if your

600
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,680
book charges you more than that, most local guys will

601
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,839
charge you the ten cents. But if it charges more

602
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,440
than that, just just take the two and a half.

603
00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:07,880
I won't go. I won't I won't spend. I won't

604
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,000
spend twenty cents. Put it that way, I won't spend

605
00:28:10,559 --> 00:28:12,559
on a three. It's actually worked a little bit more.

606
00:28:12,599 --> 00:28:14,799
When you know, when I worked for Pinnacle back in

607
00:28:15,039 --> 00:28:18,039
twenty five years more than that twenty six years ago,

608
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,720
the owner of Pinnacle he said, if he charged the

609
00:28:21,839 --> 00:28:25,319
right amount to buy onto the two and three, he

610
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,079
wouldn't get any business. So if he charged the seventeen

611
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,880
cents that it should be to buy onto the three

612
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,839
instead of the one ten, he wouldn't get any customers.

613
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,039
So that's the way it was then. However, now there's

614
00:28:38,039 --> 00:28:41,279
new ownership. It's not like it was when the three Amigos.

615
00:28:41,279 --> 00:28:43,519
When the three Wiseman I like to call him, one

616
00:28:43,559 --> 00:28:47,160
passed away. One is still around, but he's retired, and

617
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,119
the other one also in the Hall of Fame here

618
00:28:49,119 --> 00:28:53,039
in town, lives over in Spain. When when these guys

619
00:28:53,079 --> 00:28:56,279
were owned Pinnacle, and when you had Henry and Monty

620
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,240
that's the nicknames, real name, Jimmy Everett and Stanley Thompson

621
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,920
when they ran Pinnacle, My god, there was such a

622
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,279
Pinnacle Lean. You didn't have to know anything. You could

623
00:29:05,279 --> 00:29:07,480
just bet based on the Pinnacle Lean. There were a

624
00:29:07,519 --> 00:29:10,279
betting shot back then, so they would take best from

625
00:29:10,279 --> 00:29:13,000
sharp guys, maybe hold the line for a couple of minutes,

626
00:29:13,319 --> 00:29:16,880
ben they bet themselves. It was an amazing time. So

627
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,400
I can go off on these stories here.

628
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 1: No, I love it, Bill, I mean black whatever day

629
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,759
it was. Two thousand and six changed everything. Yeah, they

630
00:29:24,799 --> 00:29:27,880
started arresting guys at airports and they stuck that in

631
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,240
like page two hundred and something of a port security

632
00:29:30,279 --> 00:29:33,400
bill in Congress. And I bring that up because then

633
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,359
Pinnacle kind of went exclusive offshore only, I mean a

634
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,519
non us after that because they didn't want to deal

635
00:29:38,559 --> 00:29:41,480
with it. And yeah, the Pinnacle lean back in the

636
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,720
early two thousands was a very unique handicapping factor. It

637
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,240
was almost too easy in hindsight. I remember Back in

638
00:29:47,279 --> 00:29:49,519
the day, you'd have multiple counts. You'd get two or

639
00:29:49,519 --> 00:29:52,599
three point middles on the blind with different offshore books.

640
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,119
In college basketball, pro football, even you get a one

641
00:29:55,119 --> 00:29:55,920
point difference.

642
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:57,559
Speaker 4: You know, you and I have.

643
00:29:57,519 --> 00:29:59,279
Speaker 1: Done this long enough to remember those days. A lot

644
00:29:59,279 --> 00:30:02,039
of people now can't comprehend pulling up an odd screen

645
00:30:02,079 --> 00:30:03,440
and that some of them weren't on the odd screen.

646
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,039
Is while you got the differences, but you could have

647
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,960
multiple accounts, and tonight in basketball you'd be getting a

648
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,039
minus two plus four same game. Do you even have

649
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,759
to handicap it just played both sides across bets in hockey, baseball,

650
00:30:14,279 --> 00:30:15,880
the Golden day. That's why it's hard for me to

651
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,680
get excited about all this legalized sports betting. Now it's

652
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:19,759
made it worse in my opinion.

653
00:30:20,359 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 5: You know, I did an interview last week with a

654
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,640
Chicago newspaper. I put it up on my Twitter feed.

655
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,160
I actually now wish it wasn't repealed. I wish it

656
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,960
wasn't passed, but wasn't repealed. It's only hurt the public.

657
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,720
It's only hurt these kids. And you know it's it's

658
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,640
not only kids, lawyers, doctors, businessmen, Wall Street type it's

659
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:45,480
so accepted now gambling, and no one respects price and value.

660
00:30:45,599 --> 00:30:48,359
No one respects I should say price, not value. No

661
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,160
one respects price. And that's the reason why it's made

662
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,519
it harder for guys like us that bet for a living.

663
00:30:54,039 --> 00:30:56,839
It's made it harder for me because now even teasers.

664
00:30:56,839 --> 00:30:59,160
I used to lay a dollar ten, you know, here

665
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,799
in town, even back in the day, on six point teasers,

666
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:04,920
the lowest is a dollar thirty five. You won't see

667
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:06,440
me giving out a teaser. It's not fair to the

668
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,720
public because the DraftKings and fanduls of the world and

669
00:31:10,079 --> 00:31:12,799
all the bigger books now they said, oh well they're

670
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,480
charging a dollar thirty five, let us charge. You can't

671
00:31:15,519 --> 00:31:17,359
find that in this town. This book's charging the dollar

672
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,160
sixty here in town on teasers because it's being so

673
00:31:21,319 --> 00:31:24,400
accepted by the new genre of sports better. They don't

674
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,680
know anybody. They raised, They were raised on ESPN and

675
00:31:26,759 --> 00:31:29,680
you know, Steven, all these guys talking about games and sports,

676
00:31:29,799 --> 00:31:32,680
Oh they can do this, and you know it actually

677
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,480
hurts the sports better like myself. So these kids, like

678
00:31:36,519 --> 00:31:39,279
I said, it's the stoolies and stuff. They all love

679
00:31:39,319 --> 00:31:42,000
gambling everything. They don't care about the price. They don't

680
00:31:42,039 --> 00:31:44,119
care what they're laying. They don't care that it used

681
00:31:44,119 --> 00:31:47,480
to be minus one ten on both sides or even

682
00:31:47,519 --> 00:31:50,079
ten cent, you know baseball. They don't care what it

683
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,119
used to be. They just want to be in action now.

684
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,319
And you know now, it's just it's it's ridiculous. It

685
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,680
really is to find value. That's why I appreciate a

686
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,440
couple of our shops in town. West Gate does one

687
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,519
O five juice on all the primetime games. So Monday,

688
00:32:04,759 --> 00:32:07,480
Thursday and Sunday nights they do one o five on sides.

689
00:32:08,359 --> 00:32:12,119
You have also bet MGM they do one oh five

690
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:15,359
pricing on Thursday night one oh two an hour before

691
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,839
the game starts. So that kind of makes me feel good.

692
00:32:17,839 --> 00:32:20,319
There is some some discounts out there. But then again,

693
00:32:20,599 --> 00:32:23,440
I'm telling you, Steve, you lay one O two instead

694
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,200
of one to ten, people don't care. I believable.

695
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,039
Speaker 4: Now you're preaching the choir.

696
00:32:29,359 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: We got to do a show together sometime for like

697
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:33,160
another hour because I'd love to go down these rabbit holes.

698
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,160
Because I'm one hundred percent with you. I've said this

699
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:40,279
for decades. You remember the matchbooks, the World Sports exchanges.

700
00:32:40,319 --> 00:32:42,039
We can say those names now because they don't exist

701
00:32:42,039 --> 00:32:43,400
anymore and we're not gonna get in trouble.

702
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 4: Those are those are history.

703
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: But it always amazed me that they didn't take off.

704
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:51,240
And what happens is it's sharp's eating sharps. They cannibalize

705
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,599
each other on the betting exchanges because we're the only

706
00:32:53,599 --> 00:32:55,640
ones that care about minus one oh one minus one

707
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,519
o two juice and there's no public to take the

708
00:32:58,559 --> 00:33:01,200
other side. That's where Pinnacle was unique because they do

709
00:33:01,279 --> 00:33:04,319
have a little bit more balance. But yeah, it amazes me.

710
00:33:04,359 --> 00:33:06,960
Building people do not care. They only care about wins

711
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:07,480
and losses.

712
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 5: That's it.

713
00:33:08,119 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: And if they cared also, they wouldn't be parlaying everything

714
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,640
at an eighteen percent house edge. The money line parlays.

715
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,759
You started off with that earlier. I've said this for decades.

716
00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:18,160
You're not changing the math. When you take two or

717
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,400
three favorites and put them together in a non correlated

718
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,799
money line parlay, all you are doing is lessening the

719
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,680
risk a little bit. So I get maybe there's a

720
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,200
reason to do that for some people, but you're not

721
00:33:28,279 --> 00:33:29,920
changing the math. What you are changing the math is

722
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:31,960
when you're laying one O two for every one hundreds.

723
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,559
You're winning over hundreds and hundreds of bets. When you

724
00:33:34,599 --> 00:33:36,319
lose a little less than fifty percent of the time,

725
00:33:36,319 --> 00:33:39,000
you're saving a lot of money every time. But it's

726
00:33:39,039 --> 00:33:41,039
a remarkable phenomenon. Let me ask you real quick. I

727
00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:42,640
want to get to an MBA prop too before I

728
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,799
let you go, But real quick, we're in the prediction

729
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,279
market business, or the prediction business, the future prediction business.

730
00:33:48,839 --> 00:33:51,400
Where do you see the legalized sporting landscape in five

731
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,880
years from now, ten years from now. What I'm hoping

732
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,680
happens is this is the wild wild West. We're in

733
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,880
the eighteen eighties. Europe is in the nineteen sixties, nine

734
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,960
team seventies. Already, they've got some exchanges like Betfair that's

735
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:06,839
been around for you know, several decades. Will the public

736
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,320
eventually wise up where we kind of weed out the

737
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,719
recreational guys who are never going to get it. Will

738
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,360
we ever get to an exchange model. I'd love to

739
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,039
get you and Yanni on board with me. Let's go

740
00:34:16,079 --> 00:34:18,079
open in exchange right now. It's something that's been on

741
00:34:18,079 --> 00:34:19,800
my to do list for twenty years. But I just

742
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,519
mentioned the reasons why it doesn't work at least now,

743
00:34:23,199 --> 00:34:25,400
what is your prediction five ten years from now will

744
00:34:25,519 --> 00:34:26,000
get better?

745
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 5: I thought cal she was going to take over the

746
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,519
world here. Now you have class action lawsuits across the country.

747
00:34:32,639 --> 00:34:34,840
Calshi may have put up some of the markets themselves,

748
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,039
which is illegal. It's not a peer to peer kind

749
00:34:37,079 --> 00:34:39,159
of thing. This is what I'm seeing. This is only

750
00:34:39,679 --> 00:34:42,119
you know, this is only presumed. I really don't know

751
00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:44,880
the actual case here. I just thought that cal She

752
00:34:45,079 --> 00:34:46,800
was going to take over caws she took taking out

753
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,320
giant ads here on the strip, all in Las Vegas,

754
00:34:49,639 --> 00:34:53,239
and I thought their model was going to take over

755
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,480
the world. But it looks like right now they have

756
00:34:55,559 --> 00:34:58,760
some hurdles here. A judge vote actually put set out

757
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,719
last week said last week that cow she's illegal in Nevada.

758
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,639
So this is unbelievable. What's happening here. I was hoping

759
00:35:06,639 --> 00:35:08,880
they were gonna take over the world. But I'll tell

760
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,679
you right now, this Las Vegas, there's still like the

761
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,760
movie Casino with Robert de nirowis playing ast Rockstein and

762
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,880
then the county commissioner comes in and says the house

763
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,679
is doing good tonight. Appreciate you taking your time to

764
00:35:21,679 --> 00:35:23,880
see a civil servant and what does he say in

765
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,199
the end, mister Rotstein, and people will never know how

766
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,079
it works out here. You're all just our guests. That's

767
00:35:29,159 --> 00:35:32,239
exactly what it is. This is still a cowboy town

768
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,880
in many ways. They're not. Like even though the Draft

769
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,079
Kings office is you know, a couple of miles down

770
00:35:37,079 --> 00:35:39,639
the road here Draft Kings, that where they make the

771
00:35:39,679 --> 00:35:42,960
decisions for the public. They make decisions of the lines

772
00:35:43,039 --> 00:35:46,719
across America. However, even though the office is here, doesn't matter.

773
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,800
You can't bet here. And I don't know if they'll

774
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,239
ever be here. They're not even focusing on the Nevada

775
00:35:52,639 --> 00:35:56,679
and anymore. They're actually going to looking into those exchange

776
00:35:56,679 --> 00:35:59,239
markets themselves. So what do I see it? Well, I

777
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,000
hope we do get some changes here, and I hope

778
00:36:01,039 --> 00:36:04,280
they are legal one day, But right now I don't

779
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,280
see anything. What I'm gonna tell you happens is gonna

780
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,280
be a big fallout for years from now. We've only

781
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,119
hit the tip of the iceberg. With these NBA players

782
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,320
and NFL player whatever it may be, of betting. You

783
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,639
can't put this in kids' hands when they're playing in

784
00:36:17,679 --> 00:36:20,360
the stadiums, even the college kids. They're getting paid. Now

785
00:36:20,519 --> 00:36:24,199
they're playing in arenas, in stadiums and is advertising all

786
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,639
around the whole entire stadium, different sports books, special over

787
00:36:27,679 --> 00:36:29,760
the day, and the announcers are talking about it. The

788
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,480
it's actually to be real blunt. It's out of control.

789
00:36:35,559 --> 00:36:37,360
It's out of control. But we'll see it. We're gonna

790
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:40,679
see a fallout. Trust me. I'm just hoping that it

791
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:44,239
does get corrected in certain ways. Well, it makes it

792
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,719
better for us sports betters. Look at this tax they're

793
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,599
going to start charging next month. I mean, how do

794
00:36:49,679 --> 00:36:52,320
I bet three six ten time me? You know, I'm

795
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,159
a better I'm a better at heart. I bet lots

796
00:36:54,159 --> 00:36:56,199
of my money and I win lots of money. You're

797
00:36:56,199 --> 00:36:57,960
welcome to ask the guys at the sound Point. You're

798
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,400
welcome to ask the guys at Westgate, John Murray, I

799
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,880
take a large check out there every year. How do

800
00:37:04,079 --> 00:37:07,880
I now battle this thing where I have to pay

801
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:12,280
tax on something I didn't even do? So if you don't,

802
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,039
if you don't even win, now, I'm gonna win. I

803
00:37:14,079 --> 00:37:16,239
wanna pay tax anyway. But they're saying I'm gonna have

804
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,679
to pay more tax, or they're saying they're betters that

805
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,960
are just big have to pay tax even if they lose.

806
00:37:22,199 --> 00:37:25,039
It's unbelievable what's happening. So there needs to be some

807
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,280
things repealed. It needs to be some some things changed.

808
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,559
So I go on forget forever. I'm sorry about the

809
00:37:30,559 --> 00:37:32,320
guys that are coming up on the show. I have

810
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,119
never talked to Steve, so only followed each other on Twitter,

811
00:37:35,159 --> 00:37:36,320
so I had a lot of things to say.

812
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,519
Speaker 1: No, we're good, Bill, because first of all, I'm usually

813
00:37:38,559 --> 00:37:41,039
the third guy after you, so we're basically filling my spot.

814
00:37:41,039 --> 00:37:43,000
But we do have Andrew McGinnis up, but he's Canadian.

815
00:37:43,039 --> 00:37:46,360
He's extremely patient and kindful because he's Canadian. So we're good.

816
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,360
And he's gonna close this out here in a minute.

817
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,000
But I want to let you out promoting. I do

818
00:37:50,039 --> 00:37:52,159
see that. By the way, didn't get to some props today,

819
00:37:52,159 --> 00:37:54,239
so I'll let people get those from your page five

820
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,400
and two. I believe yesterday on Sunday you are seeing

821
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,159
it well seventy percent all sports run over the past week.

822
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,440
And also you've got a three pack up for college

823
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,119
football Championship. We haven't even taught college football today. That

824
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,599
later this week on Friday. But Cyber twenty gets twenty

825
00:38:08,599 --> 00:38:12,039
percent off anything on Bill's page, on anybody's page. Unlimited

826
00:38:12,119 --> 00:38:15,119
uses today because hey it's cyber Monday, December First the

827
00:38:15,159 --> 00:38:15,639
crack man.

828
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:16,639
Speaker 4: What else you got going on?

829
00:38:16,679 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 5: I'm not a guy that talks about what I've done

830
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,159
this week. I don't want to know about that. I'm

831
00:38:20,159 --> 00:38:22,760
not a guy who does that though. Long term, that's

832
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,079
where you want me long term. Like I said, if

833
00:38:25,079 --> 00:38:26,960
people would have followed me long term when I talked

834
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,320
about it two months ago, you would have been prospering

835
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,400
here up twelve and a half units again last week,

836
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,800
twelve point four units. Every week I've been coming on

837
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:35,760
this show saying how many units I'm up? If you

838
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,119
follow the unit betting, that's exactly what you're going to do.

839
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:39,639
So I do have a lot of things up there.

840
00:38:39,679 --> 00:38:41,760
I say, I say, get me a get a package.

841
00:38:42,079 --> 00:38:44,280
Get a package. You can't get a month's package. Get

842
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:45,800
me through the end of the super Bowl. I mean,

843
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,639
you know, contact the girls in the office. They'll make

844
00:38:48,679 --> 00:38:52,599
you a price for that. This is you want the props.

845
00:38:52,599 --> 00:38:55,079
You want the props off me? So props or where

846
00:38:55,079 --> 00:38:57,119
you want to go on super Bowl? Coming up here?

847
00:38:57,119 --> 00:38:59,079
It doesn't sound like it is right super Bowl two

848
00:38:59,079 --> 00:39:00,719
months away. That's all I can tell you, So lock

849
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,800
me up. That's all I have to say. Thanks Steve,

850
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,159
Thanks everyone for watching a comment. I think I appreciate it.

851
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bill, great seeing you. We got to do this

852
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,719
again soon. And by the way, technically you did give

853
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:10,360
out a prop because you came on with a bucket.

854
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:12,280
Speaker 4: You got a physical problem.

855
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:14,119
Speaker 5: A college basketball game.

856
00:39:14,199 --> 00:39:14,559
Speaker 4: That's right.

857
00:39:14,599 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 1: Also an NFL game Thursday, NFL football free for you

858
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:18,760
gave that else if you're just joining us, back it up.

859
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:20,960
I want to make a live bet here on wager

860
00:39:21,039 --> 00:39:23,760
Talk TV. Thanks Bill, have a great week. So the

861
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,119
crack man once again, twenty percent off anything he's got

862
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,760
right now at wager talk dot com with Cyber twenty

863
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:30,800
and I'm gonna have a free NBA playing the Sun's

864
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,039
Lakers game here in a moment to close out. But

865
00:39:33,039 --> 00:39:34,760
we got to get Andrew McGinnis song because he's gonna

866
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,559
talk a little hockey Monday night football. Andrew waiting in

867
00:39:37,599 --> 00:39:39,519
the wings, Thank you so much for being here. I

868
00:39:39,519 --> 00:39:42,840
had to get my Canadian reference in. We're compliant. We

869
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,400
had two Las Vegas guys. We're compliant now because we

870
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,719
got our in health Canadian. I haven't seen you for

871
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,360
a while either. Hope things are going well. I hope

872
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,519
your Thanksgiving a month ago was nice. Canadian Thanksgiving in October,

873
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,960
and then you benefited from the Thanksgiving in November as well. Hell,

874
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:59,000
thing's been going up north.

875
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, great to see Steve.

876
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 7: Miss missed the wager Talk meeting and greets and the meetups.

877
00:40:05,159 --> 00:40:05,679
Speaker 6: The same thing.

878
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,559
Speaker 1: Every time I see you, I think about meeting you

879
00:40:07,599 --> 00:40:09,840
all out there and it was wonderful. Yeah, I think

880
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,199
about the basketball game and we definitely need to do

881
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:13,800
it again soon, no question about it.

882
00:40:14,079 --> 00:40:15,679
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I talk with my friends about like

883
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,079
the pros and cons of working from home, and yeah,

884
00:40:18,119 --> 00:40:19,920
I can you know, after this video is done, I

885
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,079
get to go take my dog for a forty minute walk.

886
00:40:22,119 --> 00:40:23,559
You know a lot of people don't get to do

887
00:40:23,639 --> 00:40:26,639
that during the day. But definitely does kind of hurt

888
00:40:26,679 --> 00:40:28,639
when you can't kind of hang out with your colleagues

889
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,840
in person that much. But no, good to see you

890
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,199
as always, And yeah, it was kind of funny last week.

891
00:40:34,159 --> 00:40:36,320
It's always a funny week for me to explain to

892
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,559
people that we have different Thanksgiving here in Canada, so

893
00:40:38,599 --> 00:40:41,760
that's always fun. But it actually the schedule I wasn't

894
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,360
really a fan of because hockey. You know, hockey is

895
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,920
my main sport, right and if you ask me, I

896
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:49,039
would prefer to have the equal amount of games every

897
00:40:49,079 --> 00:40:53,239
single day from content perspective and from picks perspective and

898
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:56,320
sales perspective. I'll even add is that you'd rather have

899
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,880
like six or seven games every single day. So last

900
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,800
week we had no oh puck time on Tuesday, no

901
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,119
puck time on Thursday, very few games on Monday, and

902
00:41:05,159 --> 00:41:08,400
there was like fifteen games on Wednesday, fifteen games on Friday.

903
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 6: It was very staggered.

904
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 7: But I always love the Thursday Thanksgiving football because hey,

905
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,280
it's just Thursday for us, but we just get football

906
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,320
here in Canada, so that's great. I wanted to add

907
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:22,440
one thing La Crack's talking about there, and I know

908
00:41:22,519 --> 00:41:25,679
that you're interested in this kind of stuff, Steve. Many

909
00:41:25,679 --> 00:41:28,239
people will probably know this, but here in Canada we

910
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,920
don't get taxed on sports betting and we don't get

911
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:35,000
taxed on lottery winnings either, So it's super interesting, you know,

912
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,119
when you look at all this stuff coming out with

913
00:41:37,159 --> 00:41:39,960
the legalized betting and the regulated betting in the States,

914
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:41,639
I know, there's different ways we can look at it,

915
00:41:41,679 --> 00:41:44,320
but and you know, don't get me started on the

916
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,920
actual taxes on other stuff in certain places here. But

917
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,320
it is interesting when you go to make your bets,

918
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:54,000
that is just non taxable income, that is straight profitable,

919
00:41:54,119 --> 00:41:56,800
right to your bank account, right to go spend. So

920
00:41:58,079 --> 00:41:59,400
it's kind of funny when you look at it, like

921
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:02,159
I know someone that one like a very small lottery,

922
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,719
not like a massive you know, millions of dollars. The

923
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,280
only thing is with the lottery here is that your

924
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:13,039
your privacy isn't granted to you, so they don't tax you,

925
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,239
but they have the right snap a picture of you

926
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,440
and post all over the social media. Not with the

927
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,719
sports betting but with the lottery stuff. So there are

928
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,360
some pros and cons, I guess. But yeah, any money

929
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,239
that we make or lose, there's no taxes coming out,

930
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,840
whether it's on apps or whether it's in sports, but casinos,

931
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,679
whatever it is, that's extra income that's tax free.

932
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:31,039
Speaker 4: Yeah.

933
00:42:31,039 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm pretty sure in the US you

934
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,440
can't decline having your photo snapping like the million dollar

935
00:42:35,519 --> 00:42:38,360
prizes too. I think that's on the back of the ticket.

936
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,079
I'd have to check but yeah, I'm not sure you

937
00:42:40,079 --> 00:42:41,760
can get out of that one either, So I'd rather

938
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,719
still not pay the tax of thirty or forty percent

939
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,280
they take out from the automatic payment there. That is

940
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,400
one nice thing about betting up North Hockey. Let's stick

941
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:54,239
with the hockey theme. Penguins, Flyers Beck In the day,

942
00:42:54,519 --> 00:42:56,679
my Washington Capitals used to play these teams in the

943
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,079
Atlantic Division of the nineties when I used to follow hockey,

944
00:42:59,119 --> 00:43:02,800
but always been a heat at rivalry in state Pennsylvania.

945
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:06,360
They're about six hours apartment in the same state, Flyers

946
00:43:06,559 --> 00:43:08,519
and Penguins. What are your thoughts on this one tonight

947
00:43:08,519 --> 00:43:08,960
on Monday.

948
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, what a heated rivalry. You're absolutely right about that one, Steve.

949
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,280
I used to love watching these two teams go head ahead,

950
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:17,760
and you know, even the Capitols and the Penguins going.

951
00:43:17,639 --> 00:43:18,280
Speaker 6: Head to head as well.

952
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 7: Of course, I grew up a Sydney Crosby fan, with

953
00:43:21,119 --> 00:43:23,639
him being from my neck of the woods. This is

954
00:43:23,639 --> 00:43:26,360
a game that's kind of interesting because, first and foremost,

955
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,840
I will say the Metropolitan Division, which is of course

956
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,039
the team the division that these two teams playing. Now,

957
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:33,719
it's been the most competitive it's been in a couple

958
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,159
of years. The wild card race is going to be

959
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:39,000
unbelievable in the NHL this year. But you've got all

960
00:43:39,079 --> 00:43:40,760
kinds of teams in the metro that are a lot

961
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:46,480
more competitive this year. Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, the Hurricanes, the Devils,

962
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,960
all these teams are there. Pittsburgh started off hot and

963
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,159
nobody had expectations for them going into this season. In fact,

964
00:43:53,199 --> 00:43:58,079
Steve it was will Crosby actually decide to leave the Penguins,

965
00:43:58,159 --> 00:44:01,880
Will Malcoln leave the Penguins, Old Chris Letang leave the Penguins,

966
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,920
and a lot of those guys they wanted to be

967
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,159
Penguins for life, you know, And there's a lot of

968
00:44:06,199 --> 00:44:08,880
loyalty when it comes to hockey, but especially when you've

969
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:10,519
won some championships there as well.

970
00:44:11,039 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 6: Well.

971
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 7: They shocked everybody and got off to a very very

972
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,599
good start to the season. The regression has kind of

973
00:44:16,679 --> 00:44:20,000
hit this team. But when I look at this number here,

974
00:44:20,119 --> 00:44:23,119
I've got nothing nothing else to do besides take the

975
00:44:23,199 --> 00:44:26,880
dog in this game. Looking at Lodd's logic, looking at

976
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,119
the live number here, I just think this number is

977
00:44:29,159 --> 00:44:32,239
a bit too big in favor of Philadelphia. We saw

978
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,000
it open up at minus one sixty money has come

979
00:44:35,039 --> 00:44:38,039
in on pitt now. I think Pinnacle bet online some

980
00:44:38,079 --> 00:44:41,440
of those spots showing minus one thirty five now. But this,

981
00:44:41,559 --> 00:44:44,639
to me is one of those classic spots, Steve, where

982
00:44:44,639 --> 00:44:48,440
you have the more hungry team potentially going up against

983
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,880
the team that is feeling a bit too good about themselves,

984
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,480
coming in with some swagger. And you know, if you

985
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,360
look at the last few games and you look at

986
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,599
how these teams have been playing lately, you might be like, oh,

987
00:44:59,679 --> 00:45:01,119
this is the easiest bet in the world.

988
00:45:01,119 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 6: I'm going to take Philadelphia.

989
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 7: Well, they have the ninth worst expected goals against five

990
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,920
on five the last ten games, and they rely heavily

991
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:09,880
on goaltending.

992
00:45:10,039 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 6: And that's one stat and one.

993
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 7: Subject I've looked at a lot more this year, Steve

994
00:45:15,559 --> 00:45:19,400
has been goaltenders. You know, which goaltenders are playing well

995
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,960
and they should be able to sustain it, and which

996
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:25,760
teams are playing so far above the average analytically that

997
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:29,760
they cannot sustain what they're doing. Philadelphia five to three

998
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,239
win against the Devils, four to three win against the Islanders,

999
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,880
four to two win against the Panthers. They're feeling good

1000
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:38,079
about themselves coming into this one. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh just

1001
00:45:38,119 --> 00:45:42,159
got slapped around on Saturday night against Toronto. I'll take

1002
00:45:42,199 --> 00:45:45,199
the dog and the more motivated Pittsburgh team in this one.

1003
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 1: We have a little dog action in the NHL for

1004
00:45:48,039 --> 00:45:51,840
Andrew McGinnis here on Monday with the Pittsburgh Penguins. And Andrew,

1005
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:53,599
we talked on Monday Night Football a little bit earlier,

1006
00:45:53,599 --> 00:45:54,840
but I wanted to circle back here at the end

1007
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,159
of the show with your thoughts as well a reminder,

1008
00:45:57,199 --> 00:45:59,320
I've also got a standalone video in this game up

1009
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,119
with my thoughts Patriots Giants. So when you're watching wager

1010
00:46:02,159 --> 00:46:04,199
Talk TV, make sure you click subscribe, of course, and

1011
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,119
you click that bell, you'll get an instant alert, including

1012
00:46:06,119 --> 00:46:08,440
my Thursday Night Football video, which will be up later

1013
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,679
today and tomorrow early in the week for you. I

1014
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,079
talked to Yanni about this. The Patriots aren't really looking

1015
00:46:14,119 --> 00:46:16,719
all that public, which if you really look at this

1016
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,079
one on the surface, you'd be surprised by that because

1017
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:20,840
you've got a New England team that's got one of

1018
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,000
the best records in the NFL this year. You got

1019
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:24,960
a Giants team that's two and ten. New England, I

1020
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,159
believe is one it's like eight or nine in a

1021
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:29,199
row here, and they've covered all those games. But two

1022
00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:32,920
Giants meanwhile have been covering but losing. They've lost six straight.

1023
00:46:33,639 --> 00:46:36,000
Yet the line's been hovering around seven. We are starting

1024
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,400
to see some seven and a halfs any side total

1025
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:39,000
player props.

1026
00:46:39,039 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 4: Catch your attention to this one to nine on Monday.

1027
00:46:41,679 --> 00:46:44,039
Speaker 7: Just the player props for me in this one here.

1028
00:46:44,159 --> 00:46:46,960
Number two at NFL player props on the NFL season

1029
00:46:47,119 --> 00:46:50,440
plus thirty unit NFL player prop run for me. It's

1030
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,519
mostly where I rock when it comes to the NFL. Here,

1031
00:46:52,559 --> 00:46:54,920
Steve and I've got two that I'm gonna mention. The

1032
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,159
first one we're gonna go over with Jackson Dart on

1033
00:46:57,199 --> 00:47:00,679
his passing yards the free play. The number it was

1034
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:02,719
the time my free play giving out was over two

1035
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,079
hundred and five and a half passing yards. Obviously coming

1036
00:47:06,159 --> 00:47:09,440
off the injury, coming off with concussion and the new coach.

1037
00:47:10,199 --> 00:47:12,440
Everything I've read says they're not really gonna draw up

1038
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,519
any running plays for him. It's not gonna be any

1039
00:47:14,599 --> 00:47:16,880
QB runs, gonna be just sitting back in the pocket.

1040
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,800
Just be a consistent passer. Number two, This Patriots team

1041
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,880
is a top two rush defense in the entire league.

1042
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,440
Once they shut down the run for the Giants, it's

1043
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,159
gonna be passing only for them. Look at this point

1044
00:47:29,199 --> 00:47:32,679
spread here minus seven for the Patriots game. Script Wise,

1045
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,400
at certain points there's gonna be no choice for the

1046
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:37,840
Giants to have to throw the ball, have to look deep,

1047
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,960
and have to try and make some big plays. So

1048
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,559
I do think Jackson Dark goes over this number. And

1049
00:47:42,599 --> 00:47:45,360
we have seen quarterbacks recently go over this number against

1050
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:48,000
the Patriots simply because they have no choice.

1051
00:47:48,199 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 5: What.

1052
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,280
Speaker 7: I look towards the attempts to look towards the completions.

1053
00:47:51,559 --> 00:47:53,360
I would certainly look at those as well, But I

1054
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,679
do think this number is just a bit low. So

1055
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,480
I would look towards Jackson Dark to have himself a day,

1056
00:47:58,519 --> 00:48:00,320
and I'll tell you a lot of that has to

1057
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:01,960
do with the fact that I don't expect him to

1058
00:48:02,039 --> 00:48:04,280
run much today at all. So whether it's short or

1059
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,199
long passes, I do think that he gets there over

1060
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:09,000
on that one. The next one I got to go

1061
00:48:09,039 --> 00:48:11,800
to here This might be a little bit contrarian because

1062
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,480
this is a tight end that people have kind of

1063
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,000
fallen in love with here this season. I'm gonna go

1064
00:48:16,199 --> 00:48:19,199
under on Hunter Henry's receiving yards.

1065
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:19,519
Speaker 6: Now.

1066
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:21,840
Speaker 7: The number that I'm seeing right now is thirty eight

1067
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:25,480
and a half receiving yards for Hunter Henry. You've got

1068
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,320
a Patriots or a Giant said defense.

1069
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,039
Speaker 6: Excuse me. The ranks twenty.

1070
00:48:30,639 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 7: Fourth overall against the pass, but they are eighth overall

1071
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,760
against tight ends. And I just love differences like that, Steve, Like,

1072
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,880
how can they be so bad overall against the pass?

1073
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,199
But for some reason that one particular position, tight ends

1074
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,960
they do pretty well against, ranking at number eight, So

1075
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:51,360
under thirty eight and a half. Theres a lot of

1076
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:54,920
receiver options for the Patriots, but maybe, just maybe this

1077
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,400
is the one position this Giants defense is pretty good against.

1078
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:00,760
I was joking around on my prop show, Andy Lang,

1079
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:04,119
let's play a fun game, try and say something nice

1080
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:06,400
about the New York Giants, And I guess the one

1081
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,360
thing I can find this's nice about them is they're

1082
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,199
pretty good against tight ends. So we'll take Hunter Henry

1083
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:12,880
under on his receiving yards.

1084
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 1: It's funny, Andrew, when the Dan and Andy were doing

1085
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,159
all the season win props, like for every team throughout

1086
00:49:18,159 --> 00:49:21,599
the summer here on Wait to Talk Today, Nobody can

1087
00:49:21,639 --> 00:49:23,519
make a case for the Giants over. I believe it

1088
00:49:23,559 --> 00:49:26,159
was five and a half, and I kept thinking, well,

1089
00:49:26,199 --> 00:49:29,360
you know, just from a contrarian standpoint, they'll probably outperform,

1090
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,360
but like what would be that catalyst? And I was like, well,

1091
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:33,840
they do have Jackson Darty looked really good in the preseason,

1092
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:36,320
and now you look, they're two and ten. They're not

1093
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,400
gonna probably get over five and a half wins, but

1094
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,719
probably should. Right, they've blown two big leads. They should

1095
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:44,840
be four and eight Darts coming and Dart's been hurt.

1096
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,239
Otherwise they maybe do win some of those games. And like,

1097
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:49,920
this is a situation where yes, that under is gonna

1098
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,320
win probably, but they could have gone the other way.

1099
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,519
And you talk about Darts passing props over, I like

1100
00:49:55,559 --> 00:49:57,199
where you're going with that, because even if they lose

1101
00:49:57,199 --> 00:49:59,159
tonight as a seven point dog, they probably throw the

1102
00:49:59,159 --> 00:50:01,440
ball more if they're behind, right, And also, love you

1103
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:03,239
pointed out he's coming back off the concussion, which means

1104
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,000
he's kind of probably not look to get hit, which

1105
00:50:05,039 --> 00:50:05,519
means he's.

1106
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:06,320
Speaker 4: Gonna throw the ball more.

1107
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 1: So great props is always from Andrew mcgannis, and he

1108
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:12,119
is a prop expert in a Canadian hockey expert, as

1109
00:50:12,119 --> 00:50:14,519
you just heard here at wager talk dot com and

1110
00:50:14,519 --> 00:50:17,679
Andrew right now with cyber Monday, Cyber twenty is all

1111
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:19,880
you need to get twenty percent off each and everything

1112
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:21,199
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1113
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a one month, a one year, even discounted specials getting

1114
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additional twenty percent off today and today only with cyber twenty.

1115
00:50:27,599 --> 00:50:30,320
What do you have going on at wager talk dot com.

1116
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 6: It's just a great deal.

1117
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:33,519
Speaker 7: It's a great deal, and if anybody wants to get

1118
00:50:33,519 --> 00:50:36,280
involved short term, they can best bet tonight in the

1119
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:40,559
NHL four percent play best bet Tonight in NFL player

1120
00:50:40,599 --> 00:50:42,960
prop and I'm looking forward to that big time as

1121
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,480
I mentioned, plus thirty unit long term run with the

1122
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:49,880
player props. I believe number three in wager talk overall

1123
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,159
twenty twenty five with player props, number two NFL overall,

1124
00:50:53,199 --> 00:50:55,760
So looking forward to that. And last year I was

1125
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,639
a number two handicapper in the regular season with the NHL,

1126
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,880
So we kick some ass. And that's so if anybody

1127
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:03,960
wants to jump on board, like you said, Steve, Cyber

1128
00:51:04,039 --> 00:51:07,400
twenty is the deal to use. We're handicapping every day,

1129
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:11,039
We're looking at NHL, we're looking at college basketball team totals.

1130
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 6: We're playing NFL, so I'm looking forward to it.

1131
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:13,639
Speaker 4: Guys.

1132
00:51:13,639 --> 00:51:15,039
Speaker 7: If you want to jump on board, go to my

1133
00:51:15,039 --> 00:51:19,039
page WT dop buzz slash am and hop on board

1134
00:51:19,039 --> 00:51:21,280
for a long term package. If not, we got some

1135
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,800
short term stuff going on three day, seven days, or

1136
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,039
just try try me out for one day. You know,

1137
00:51:26,039 --> 00:51:28,840
I got NFL best bet, NHL best bet. It's on

1138
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:30,599
a great Monday. I'm looking forward to starting the week.

1139
00:51:30,599 --> 00:51:33,079
I'm feeling good at NHL Up tonight NFL. Steve, It's

1140
00:51:33,079 --> 00:51:33,840
gonna be a great day.

1141
00:51:34,559 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 1: Great to see Andrew as always, Andrew will do it

1142
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:40,159
again soon Andrew McGinnis wager talk dot com, WT dot

1143
00:51:40,159 --> 00:51:42,840
buzz slash Am. That promo code wll work through the

1144
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:46,159
pmsday is the until midnight twenty percent off with Cyber

1145
00:51:46,199 --> 00:51:50,400
twenty at wagertalk dot com. I'm gonna look at a

1146
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,880
little free NBA play here for you tonight on Monday,

1147
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:58,119
Big game for you, Peacock Network ten thirty Eastern Suns

1148
00:51:58,159 --> 00:52:00,280
and Lakers free play coming up with the now is.

1149
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:01,119
Speaker 4: Right here, right now.

1150
00:52:01,119 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 1: The Steve merrillwater Talk dot Com Right back here on

1151
00:52:03,519 --> 00:52:07,519
Waitter Talk TV, breaking down your spotlight game tonight at

1152
00:52:07,519 --> 00:52:10,280
ten thirty eastern the NBA between the Suns and the

1153
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,719
Lakers on National TV, and of course, as we often do,

1154
00:52:13,159 --> 00:52:15,559
we have it with ten ten eastern. Don't miss the start.

1155
00:52:15,599 --> 00:52:19,639
It's ten ten eastern on Peacock. As always, Lebron James

1156
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:21,719
is front and center. He's been back for four games

1157
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,000
after missing the entire season. The Lakers have gone four

1158
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,360
to oh straight up with him those past four games,

1159
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:29,199
but he has now listed as questionable tonight. The official

1160
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:31,280
NBA injury report is not out for the Lakers, but

1161
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:34,079
I'm seeing him as questionable. Some news sources we saw

1162
00:52:34,119 --> 00:52:36,880
an advanced line as high as ten. It was five

1163
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,199
this morning, now it's four and a half mid afternoons.

1164
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:41,000
I think they tells you what the Betty markets think,

1165
00:52:41,039 --> 00:52:44,400
and that's Lebron's not playing tonight. And while they've been

1166
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,440
a good team without him this season. I mentioned the

1167
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,880
four straight wins, there's still eleven and four straight up

1168
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:52,360
without Lebron. Not a good situation for the Lakers tonight.

1169
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:54,679
First of all, they did play four games with him.

1170
00:52:55,039 --> 00:52:56,719
They started to work him back in the lineup, so

1171
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:57,719
I think it could be a little bit of a

1172
00:52:57,760 --> 00:52:59,280
shock to the system to pull him back out. And

1173
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,079
by the way, Lebron is still playing well. In those

1174
00:53:01,119 --> 00:53:03,599
four games, he averaged about thirty two and a half

1175
00:53:03,639 --> 00:53:07,079
minutes a game, sixteen and a half points over eight assists.

1176
00:53:07,079 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 4: He's a great one of the greatest passers. Ever.

1177
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 1: That might be the most underrated aspect of Lebron James,

1178
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,320
who has now played pro basketball more than half his life.

1179
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:15,840
He has been in the NBA longer than he has

1180
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:17,559
not been in the NBA, which is just also a

1181
00:53:17,599 --> 00:53:20,400
remarkable stat. With that said, the Donson's been doing the

1182
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,039
heavy lifting this season thirty seven minutes a game, thirty

1183
00:53:23,039 --> 00:53:26,800
five points a game. Austin Reeves our new superstar thirty

1184
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,159
six minutes, twenty eight and a half, twenty nine points

1185
00:53:29,159 --> 00:53:31,800
a game. So they're okay if Lebron's not there, But

1186
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:33,760
the scheduling spot is still not good for the Lakers,

1187
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:35,800
especially with two other guys having to do a lot

1188
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:37,480
of heavy lifting. The reason I say that is because

1189
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:40,280
it's a back to back, no rest situation. After beating

1190
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,360
New Orleans last night but failing to cover at home,

1191
00:53:42,639 --> 00:53:44,559
and of course they had that big game against Dallas

1192
00:53:44,599 --> 00:53:47,320
Friday night the National TV Cup game, in which they

1193
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,559
won and barely covered by about a half a point.

1194
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,800
So yes, this is now the lakers third game and

1195
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:55,079
four nights back to back, no rest situation, and it

1196
00:53:55,079 --> 00:53:57,840
should be a very focused spot for Phoenix, who comes

1197
00:53:57,880 --> 00:53:59,880
in with rest after losing to two of the best teams.

1198
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,039
Lost at Oklahoma City and they also lost at home

1199
00:54:04,079 --> 00:54:06,679
against Denver on Saturday Friday and Saturday. No shame in

1200
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:08,920
those losses as they were a dog in both games.

1201
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:13,039
Also lost against Houston a few games before that, but

1202
00:54:13,079 --> 00:54:15,840
otherwise they've won their other four games, and they'd won

1203
00:54:16,199 --> 00:54:18,119
eight of their previous nine if you take out those

1204
00:54:18,119 --> 00:54:20,639
Class A opponents. Yes, the Lakers are maybe a Class

1205
00:54:20,679 --> 00:54:21,920
A team, but I think they could be a little

1206
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,480
short handed tonight, and the scheduling spot is also not

1207
00:54:24,519 --> 00:54:26,800
good for LA. I think we have a live dog

1208
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,280
alert here with the Phoenix Suns tonight. Take a look

1209
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:31,000
at Phoenix plus the four and a half to plus

1210
00:54:31,079 --> 00:54:34,159
five that game once again at ten ten Eastern Monday

1211
00:54:34,199 --> 00:54:37,559
Night on the Peacock Network tonight on Monday. Hey, don't

1212
00:54:37,599 --> 00:54:39,760
forget there's Monday Night football. We do have that Patriot

1213
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,880
Giants game. I've got a free play with analysis in

1214
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:44,079
the standalone video for that game right here on wait

1215
00:54:44,159 --> 00:54:46,800
er Talk TV. Make sure you're hitting subscribe and you're

1216
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:49,159
clicking that bell so you get an instant alert when

1217
00:54:49,159 --> 00:54:51,199
free players are videos are posted each and every day,

1218
00:54:51,199 --> 00:54:53,400
and there will be more basketball free play videos popping

1219
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,679
up here in the month of December now that football

1220
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:57,840
is starting to wind down. Also, I will have a

1221
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:01,000
ton of college football championship videos later this week here

1222
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:04,280
covering all your key games for this week of college

1223
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:07,840
championship action in football. Subscribe click that bell and if

1224
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,119
you're liking the free plays, all I ask is a

1225
00:55:10,199 --> 00:55:13,159
quick thumbs up like and a positive comment below. Click

1226
00:55:13,199 --> 00:55:15,320
the thumbs up like positive comment below because I do

1227
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:17,360
read the comments and I reply back. Who do you

1228
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:20,280
like tonight on Monday in the Association? What side or

1229
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:22,599
totals are you looking at in the NBA for Monday?

1230
00:55:22,599 --> 00:55:22,679
Speaker 5: Hey?

1231
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,599
Speaker 1: Drop them below and include some analysis as well. Let's

1232
00:55:25,679 --> 00:55:28,800
learn and earn and win together here on wager Talk TV.

1233
00:55:29,159 --> 00:55:30,880
And if you want my personal best bets, you know

1234
00:55:31,079 --> 00:55:32,719
I give you a lot of free plays here throughout

1235
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:35,280
the week. Fifteen to twenty free plays every week. Most

1236
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:37,440
of those are like tv lians. Sometimes these games make

1237
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:38,960
my best bet card, and the only way to know

1238
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:40,760
for sure is to be a direct client. Those are

1239
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:43,159
strong four percent plays. If you're playing the tv Lians,

1240
00:55:43,199 --> 00:55:45,039
maybe one percent of bank roll. But if you want

1241
00:55:45,039 --> 00:55:47,960
those strong four percent best bets, including some NBA action tonight,

1242
00:55:48,199 --> 00:55:50,519
I've got a couple strong best bets for Monday. Go

1243
00:55:50,599 --> 00:55:53,440
to my page Steve Merrill wager talk dot com. Also

1244
00:55:53,559 --> 00:55:56,039
check out the bonus free play. The last Cup for

1245
00:55:56,119 --> 00:55:57,880
my best bet card is a bonus free play every

1246
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,519
day on my page. And also make sure anything you

1247
00:56:00,559 --> 00:56:04,599
get today on Monday use Cyber twenty Cyber Monday, December first,

1248
00:56:04,599 --> 00:56:06,920
And this is a fantastic special right now at wager

1249
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:10,159
talk dot com. Across the board, every package, every product

1250
00:56:10,199 --> 00:56:12,840
you buy, including discounted prices already you get an additional

1251
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,079
twenty percent off the top of it. But today only

1252
00:56:15,119 --> 00:56:17,639
on Monday, and you got to use promo code Cyber

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00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:21,960
twenty Cyber two zero at checkout unlimited uses, unlimited cappers,

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00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:25,760
unlimited purchases. Today only Cyber Monday Cyber twenty gets you

1255
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:28,840
twenty percent off everything you buy, including my page. Steve Merrill,

1256
00:56:29,079 --> 00:56:31,320
wager Talk dot com and of course get there quicker

1257
00:56:31,599 --> 00:56:35,880
with shortcut WT dot buzz slash SM.

1258
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:36,800
Speaker 4: Don't forget to.

1259
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:38,760
Speaker 1: Follow me on social media on X and Instagram at

1260
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:41,760
Steve Merril two RS one, L M E R R

1261
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:45,039
I L at Steve Merrill and X and Instagram, and

1262
00:56:45,159 --> 00:56:47,400
always stay tuned here to wager Talk TV. Great more

1263
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:50,719
free play videos coming up next. Thanks for being with

1264
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,199
us here on Monday. Cyber Monday, Cyber twenty once again

1265
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,519
gets it done. Andy Lang will be back tomorrow on

1266
00:56:55,599 --> 00:56:58,880
Tuesday with another great episode of wager Talk Today a

1267
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,920
little sneak peek for you, Jesse Schule, Brian Power, the

1268
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:05,079
pres the original Lawrence Presman, and then Andy Lang. Of

1269
00:57:05,119 --> 00:57:07,000
course we'll have an NBA breakdown like I did for

1270
00:57:07,039 --> 00:57:07,840
tomorrow on Tuesday.

1271
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:08,760
Speaker 4: So must see TV.

1272
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,280
Speaker 1: Click subscribe click that bell for an instant alert when

1273
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,159
it goes live at twelve New Eastern. In the meantime,

1274
00:57:14,199 --> 00:57:17,000
have a great Cyber Monday. Don't shop too much unless

1275
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,000
you're at wager talk dot com. Then shop to you

1276
00:57:19,079 --> 00:57:22,000
drop with cyber twenty. We'll be back in about twenty

1277
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:23,880
three hours. Have a great Monday. We'll talk to you again.

1278
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:24,079
Speaker 5: Soon