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Speaker 1: Happy Sunday.

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Speaker 2: It's last called Sunday Divisional Round Day two edition on

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the prop Queen Aria Epstein. We've got two games on

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the slate. Tonight, three pm Eastern time is when it's beginning.

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The Houston Texans are taken on the New England Patriots,

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and then at six thirty pm Eastern time, we've got

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the big game going on between the Los Angeles Rams

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and the Chicago Bears. Whether as a factor today, people,

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we are going to have some snow here on the

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East Coast, so make sure to check out the snow

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here in New York it's going to start around three

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four o'clock and in Chicago it's going to be really

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cold and snowy. To talk about all the games today,

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we'll be joined by Yanni the Greek, then Teddy Covers

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and then Marco ze Angelo.

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Speaker 1: We've also got.

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Speaker 2: The needs of the day, So for the people that

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love the needs, we need to avoid New England by three.

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They laid two and a half and three and took

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plus three and a half. So that's from Art over

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at the super Book. They need the as well because

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they have a lot of futures on the Rams. Over

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at the Westgates super Book, so make sure to look

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at that for the NFL. And then some sharp college

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basketball Green Bay Wisconsin plus four and a half, Whichita

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State plus nine and a half, UTSA plus twenty one

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and a half, FAU minus three, and Maryland over one

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forty seven and a half. That's all coming from art

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Over at the Westgates super Book.

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Speaker 1: Those are the needs of the day.

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Speaker 2: So really the needs in the NFL again, they need

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to avoid New England by three. They laid negative minus

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two and a half minus three and took plus three

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and a half. And then they also need the Rams

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to lose. But honestly, I'm really hoping that the Rams

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win because I have the Houston Texans and the Rams

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in a pick and pool.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday I did lay it with the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: I thought that number was pretty fishy, laying seven in

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divisional game third time around. And then I also had

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the Denver Broncos, who, if you guys have been sleeping

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all morning and fell asleep last night, found out that

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Bone Nicks is out for the rest of the season.

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The Denver quarterback broke a bone in his foot or

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inkle and he is going to be out for the

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rest of the season.

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Speaker 1: So it's Jared Sidham's turn in the AFC Championship game.

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Speaker 2: So if there really was a script in the NFL,

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I have a high feeling that Jared Sidham was not

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in the script. Yanni the Greek always knows the script.

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That's why he's one of the sharpest guys I know.

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Yanni the Greek joining the show live from Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: Everyone in the.

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Speaker 2: Steam room is free today, by the way, and it

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makes me even happier.

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Speaker 1: Yanni's repping my New York Yankees. A happy Sunday something.

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Speaker 3: I'm comfortable.

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Speaker 4: Okay that the computer I usually use the apples, and

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they're giving me problems, but I had a full time PA.

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They start tomorrow, so these issues will go away. I'm

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just not good with this stuff.

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Speaker 2: So now, well, we only care about what you are

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good at, and that's obviously giving us winners each week.

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Speaker 1: How is your Saturday?

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Speaker 5: Good?

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Speaker 3: Good?

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Speaker 6: I made money. I made money. That's always a good thing.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, it's been a good NFL season overall, good

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college football season overall. I lost last Sunday, had a

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winning Saturday in football, but lost on Sunday, so I

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expected a good bounce back. That's exactly what happened yesterday,

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and we're loaded loaded for bear today. Today I got

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a lot of action even fire to five percent. So

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we'll see how in NFL or college NFL, NFL today

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it's all back. I haven't released anything in college basketball

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yet today. Been really selective, been winning, been doing really good.

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Speaker 6: It's been just.

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Speaker 4: Been one of those weeks where staying selective has been

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paying off. I think since Monday, I'm twenty and nine,

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so giving out only thirty bets, hit close to seventy

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percent of them, up over thirty units, and just grinding.

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And yeah, like I said, good games.

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Speaker 1: Player, you're going to be grinding today. How much do

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you care about the snow in the forecast?

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Speaker 6: Listen, it's already factored into the price. That's that's the key.

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Speaker 4: And you're seeing that that nothing is really reflecting it,

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Like you don't see the total moving down two or

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three points, so the market doesn't care. It was kind

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of like we were talking about what quarterback was supposed

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to be possibly injured yesterday?

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Speaker 6: Was that the Seattle court or the round?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Sam Darnold had the oblique injury.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, all's he had to do is look up at

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the board. The line didn't move, not even a half

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a point.

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Speaker 6: It was totally fun.

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Speaker 2: The only thing that impacted was I really did love

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his passing yards over. I didn't bet it because of

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the injury. I love the passing yards over, but it

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was fecially the same way that his number was before

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the injury two twenty nine and a half. But he

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never went over two hundred passing yards this year against

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San fran the same way that that game was only

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thirteen to three in the last week of the season.

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These two played a aty twice their divisional rivals.

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Speaker 1: Laying seven at home.

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Speaker 2: In a playoff game against your divisional rival is crazy.

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Like the book was literally telling us the story on me.

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Speaker 4: Yes, they were, and listen, here's the thing you gotta remember.

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The book's going to stick to their power ratings, especially

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this late in the season, and the only adjustment they're

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going to make is for risk or if there's a

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big narrative. That's why I don't understand why betters care

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what the book needs this late in the season. They

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don't need anything. They just need you to place a bet.

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Have you walked into a sportsbook lately and seen the

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bets that people are placing. What does the book need?

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They just need to open their doors. Like people are

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placing the craziest bets I've ever like they're taking as

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negative b b as that take they don't need anything.

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Speaker 6: At the end of the.

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Speaker 4: Day, they get very close to fifty to fifty. When

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you get this late in the season. Yes, early on

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in the week you're gonna hear team as getting all

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the money because the lion's moving in that direction. But

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by the time the games kick off, they're much closer

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to fifty to fifty. Yes, there's always a side of

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books gonna prefer over another, but I promise you, when

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the dust settles at the end of the day, regardless

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what the outcome is, the books are gonna make money today.

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Speaker 6: It doesn't matter whether.

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Speaker 4: The Houston wins, New England wins, the game goes over,

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the game goes under, Rams wins, Chicago wins, the game

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goes over, games goes under.

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Speaker 6: The book's gonna make money.

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Speaker 4: Why because betters are going to continue to place the

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negative V bets. They're going to continue to parlay these games.

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They're then continue to tease these games with totals. They're

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going to continue to, you know, just look for action.

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And as long as they do that, again, the book

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really doesn't need anything as far as fading the public

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this late in the season. If that's the approach, you

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got to revisit the thesis. That's not going to make

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you money. Right now, again, yesterday, what did we see?

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Money was on Denver? Was kept coming in on Denver.

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They even went the favorite What happened Denver wins? We

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knew the sharp money was on Seattle early on. Yes,

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they did take San Francisco plus seven and a half?

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What happened Seattle goes in there and blows them away.

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So again, don't be too concerned of where the money is.

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If you have conviction and you trust your numbers, that's

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all it's got to come down to this late in

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the season. Now, let me pull up this. Are we

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still on here?

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Speaker 6: I think so?

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Speaker 5: Right? Ariel, Hey, yeah, we're alive.

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Speaker 6: Are I didn't know if I lost their No, it's me,

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it was not me.

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Speaker 1: That's my bad.

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Speaker 2: It x'd out by accident. No, So I want to start,

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how will we make money on this game? Because three

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o'clock Eastern time, you said it's hard when you come in,

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so late into the slate.

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Speaker 1: Like right now, people are.

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Speaker 2: Run into the window or run into their apps and

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they're trying to get some action three o'clock Eastern time.

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Speaker 1: Where is there still value on the board or what

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is still a good bet to you?

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Speaker 4: Well, the good thing is if the lines aren't going

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to move much in the playoffs, So like that's that's

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the thing. You got to focus on what you like

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because you don't have to get out. It's very different,

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like the landscape of the market changes when you get

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to the playoffs. These lines aren't moved. Look at the rams,

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Look at the opener was Look what the line is.

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They're not going to move. The only time they're movement

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is around a key number or if a player gets hurt.

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So you don't have to be first. It doesn't matter

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about when you're you know again, some totals are gonna move.

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Like we saw the rams in Chicago that under got steam.

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They opened it at fifty one. That fifty one was

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available at very few places. In fact, it didn't last

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more than a couple minutes. Got the fifty and a

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half fifty down the forty nine, but once it got

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the forty nine, that's pretty much where it stayed forty

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nine forty eight and a half in the playoffs.

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Speaker 6: That's what's gonna happen.

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Speaker 4: So it isn't really that the books are so confident

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that their lines are so tight and they know they're

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going to get so much volume, and they're gonna end

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up having so many much little risk, because remember we're

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all laying eleven to win ten, whether you're taking Houston,

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whether you're taking New England, you're laying eleven to win ten.

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And because of that, the books end up in a

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good position. These lines aren't moving very much. So if

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you like New England, the only thing you missed was

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if you were able to get minus two and a

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half early on, that was it. But otherwise you could

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get three today. If you like Houston, then you can

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still get three and a half today. That's the beauty

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that the same numbers are still available to you.

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Speaker 6: Same thing.

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Speaker 4: With the total open forty one forty and a half,

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we're still looking at forty one's forty.

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Speaker 6: And a half.

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Speaker 4: So again it all comes down to having the right side. Personally,

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obviously I gave out on bed on them. I like

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the over, I thought the over was a little short.

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I thought there was a little bias towards the under

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because of just how good defensively these two teams are

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as compared to their offenses, like they're barely top fifteen offenses,

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but both of them are our top ten defenses. In

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the case of Houston, they're the number one defense. So

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you're usually going to get some bias towards the total.

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Speaker 2: And that's exactly what drafting like, sixty five percent of

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actions coming in on the under.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's going to change again. The line

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don't reflect that. That's why I'm.

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Speaker 2: Doing a thing because also there's snow in the forecast

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and it's cold that that's also a clear under indicator.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and not necessarily because those are costs, turnovers, turnovers,

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turn in the points. You know, talked about that with defenses,

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they don't necessarily, you know, turn into under, just like

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two good offenses don't necessarily turn into an over because

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you're gonna have an inflated line for the bias of

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the over. And as if you're going with two good offenses,

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obviously you don't want to shoot out.

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Speaker 6: You want the other offense on the sideline as long as.

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Speaker 4: Possible, so you know, game plans tend to change in

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this one. What Houston and New England they aren't. They're

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defensive teams, They're defensive minded teams. So I thought the

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total was gonna come out a little short, and it did.

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Speaker 6: And then with the.

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Speaker 4: Bias of last week, New England not putting up points,

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Houston not allowing much points, again, I thought there was

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some value in the over.

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Speaker 6: But I will tell you I did see Steam.

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Speaker 4: Come in on the under in the first half, So yeah,

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the under got hit. In fact, it was down the

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nineteen and a half up until yesterday when you started

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seeing some take back on the over. I'm sure there's

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still some books that still have that nineteen and a

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half out there. So we were looking at twenty and

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a half, got down to nineteen and a half. So again,

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and you got to remember, like, these aren't the same

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groups betting all the same stuff. You know, one group

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sees value in over forty and a half for the game,

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another sees value in under twenty and a half for

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the first half. Those are two completely different bets that

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in both cash or you know, both lose. But I

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see that all the time, and I even see that

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from the same groups areal where they'll go under in

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the first half over for the game.

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Speaker 6: To them, they're just looking at their numbers. That's all.

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Speaker 4: They're betting the game totals. You know, a little short

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on the over, we're gonna bet over the first half.

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Line's a little short on the under, We're gonna go under.

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It's all about betting unders, I mean betting numbers. And

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like I said, the under in the first half it

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has gotten sharp action, but over for the game has also.

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New England minus two and a half got sharp money.

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Houston plus three and a half got sharp money. That's

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just the truth. That's just me keeping it real for you,

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because that is what's gonna happen for the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Honey.

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Speaker 2: I actually thought that the Houston Texans were gonna be

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more public because it's plus three and a half and

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everyone loves to take it three and a half. The

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Patriots are getting a lot of the love. The Patriots

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and the Bears are the two teams that everyone publicly

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just feels. Maybe everyone's down on CJ. Stroud because he

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had a horrible, messy game last week and the defense

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lifted them up, which I always say, Yannie, if you

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have a great defense and a kind of iffy whatever offense,

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you have a better shot at winning a Super Bowl

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or any championship than you do with a great offense

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and no defense.

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Speaker 6: Very true, very very very true.

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Speaker 2: So how much do you agree now going into the

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night game six pm Eastern Time between the Rams and

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the Bears, how much do you believe in the Rams?

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Speaker 1: Since the public's on the Bears.

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Speaker 4: I thought that the Rams were the second best team

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in the NFL coming into the playoffs. I made Seattle

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number one on my power ratings. I have the Rams

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at number two in my power ratings. So I do

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think the Rams are the second best team in the NFL.

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In fact, I thought this line was a little bit short, at.

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Speaker 6: Like that three and a half. I thought it was

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too Yeah, I thought the Rams should be about a

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four and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 5: Believe it or not.

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Speaker 6: I'm really low on Chicago, and I've gotten a lot of.

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Speaker 1: Bally, We've all been low in Chicago.

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Speaker 3: And the.

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Speaker 1: Wrong.

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Speaker 4: Exactly, I've taken a lot of heat on Bash in Chicago,

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and I've been wrong. That's correct. You know, there's a

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team that's twelve and six right now. More importantly, they're

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twelve and five and one ats, so that he covered

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almost seventy percent of their games. They've outperformed the betting

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market seven out of ten times. That's as impressive as

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it comes. So in Chicago just keeps proving me wrong.

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You know, they're a team that's won seven out of ten. Now,

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straight up, they covered eight of their last ten. What's

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not to like and their home and their dogs. But

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I can't overlook the numbers and the data, and the

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data still tells me this. It tells me that I

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have a Rams quarterback that's top five in passing success rate.

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I have a Chicago quarterback that's bottom five in passing

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success rate. I have a Rams teams that had the

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number one strength of schedule. I have a Chicago team

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that had the twenty first strength of schedule. I have

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a RAMS team with that number one strength of schedule

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that has the number one offense. I have a defense

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in Chicago versus the twenty first strength of schedule that's

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eighteenth in efficiency. That tells me the Rams should be

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able to put up some points against Chicago. On the

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flip side, the Rams weakness has been their defense. They're

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not even in the top fifteen in efficiency. Chicago not

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a top ten offen that's the problem. But they will

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have a tough go of it this week because even

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though the Rams are sixteenth, that's against the number one

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strength of schedule. Now they're going up against an easier

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opponent in Chicago. That's why I'm saying power rated wise,

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I think the Rams on the neutral field should be

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about a six six and a half point favorite over Chicago.

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Give Chicago two points for home field advantage. Maybe slay

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shaded a little bit more because the Rams, you know,

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being more of a warmer weather team at least that's

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the narrative in.

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Speaker 2: The west to east West today is a tougher all

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of that, all of that, but they just did it

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last week, so I don't know if that helper hurts them.

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Speaker 4: So let's give Chicago three points for home field advantage.

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Let's go ahead and do that. So what do we

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make the Rams. They still should be about that three

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and a half point favorite. So I do think the

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line is fair.

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Speaker 5: I do.

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Speaker 6: I don't think it's it's it's too high.

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Speaker 4: Like I hear all the talk about, you know, Chicago

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Chicago money line.

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Speaker 6: I get it. I don't like it.

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Speaker 1: I can't do it. I can't buy in. I totally.

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Speaker 6: Here's what I will say.

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Speaker 4: If you are betting Chicago today, you gotta bet him

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on the money line. If you're betting Houston today, you

349
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gotta bet him on the money line. In fact, any

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dog that I bet, I'm betting money line. And my

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subscribers know that when it comes to the playoffs, especially

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when we get into the later rounds, you gotta put

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some of your bet on the money line because the

354
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spread just doesn't matter. I know last week we saw

355
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it matter with the Rams, and on occasion it is

356
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gonna matter. But you gotta trust history, and history tells

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us eight out of ten times the spread's not going

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to matter. In fact, next week championship, I think it's

359
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closer to nine out of ten times.

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Speaker 6: You just pick the winner. You're gonna cash a ticket.

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Speaker 4: And that's the opposite of what we do in the

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regular season where we say, you know, the spreads the

363
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great equalizer, it's all about the number. In the playoffs,

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that just isn't the case. Pick the winner, you're gonna

365
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cash a ticket. So what does that mean? The favorite

366
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usually wins convincingly, or the dog wins outright. So today,

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what am I expect? I expect Houston to win the

368
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game outright, or I expect New England to win by

369
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double digits. I expect Chicago to win the game outright,

370
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or I expect the Rams to win by double digits.

371
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I don't think the spread's going to help you. I

372
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don't think the TEASER's going to help you in either

373
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of those games. I really don't think dom they're they're

374
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that advantageous. I do think you should be doing some

375
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,039
moneyline action if you're touching any of these dogs today,

376
00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:26,079
don't be afraid of it. And I do like that

377
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:32,160
my sharp sharp sharp out just went to juice over

378
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forty one for Houston and New England.

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Speaker 6: So that's a good sign for those of us that

380
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:37,519
have been It's one.

381
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Speaker 2: Of Janny's favorite plays of the weekend. Any props that

382
00:17:40,279 --> 00:17:41,799
these sharp groups are jumping in on.

383
00:17:41,759 --> 00:17:43,640
Speaker 6: Today, Oh, I'm glad you asked that.

384
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Speaker 1: I'm ready to right, I'm ready.

385
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Speaker 4: Let's get because we definitely have proms. I'll give you

386
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,680
some premiums that I even had for subscribers. You ready,

387
00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:52,759
These are three percent plays. I gave two of them

388
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for my subscribers since I have a five percent and

389
00:17:55,039 --> 00:17:57,240
the steam room's open, there'll be more in there. But

390
00:17:57,319 --> 00:18:00,839
here's one for you, Woody Marx. Woody Marx long rush,

391
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:06,000
Woody Mark's longest rush under twelve and a half. We're

392
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,960
laying up the minus one forty so eb's probably up

393
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:10,920
to minus one fifties.

394
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Speaker 6: So six out of ten times.

395
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,039
Speaker 4: We think Woody Mars goes under twelve and a half

396
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as his longest rush. If that line's moved, look at

397
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,799
his overall rush yards that may not have been adjusted

398
00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:23,759
as significantly.

399
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:25,440
Speaker 6: Always look at the rivatives.

400
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,559
Speaker 4: When it comes to props, there's creative ways to bet them.

401
00:18:28,759 --> 00:18:30,920
So Woody Marks, we're not expecting the big game from

402
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,759
him longest rush under twelve and a half. Look the

403
00:18:33,799 --> 00:18:37,079
rushing yards for the game also under and then expecting

404
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:41,240
a good game from Kien Williams. Rushing yards over went

405
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,759
over fifty nine and a half and over sixty and

406
00:18:44,759 --> 00:18:49,000
a half rushing yards over for Kion Williams and Woody

407
00:18:49,079 --> 00:18:52,480
Marks under. Those are two really good prompts. What else

408
00:18:52,519 --> 00:18:55,480
do I have for you? That was the Cirent Blake

409
00:18:55,559 --> 00:18:59,279
Korum Blake Korum longest rush over twelve and a half.

410
00:18:59,319 --> 00:19:02,720
Blake Korum longest rush over twelve and a half. See,

411
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,440
I did see that, Woody Marks.

412
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,319
Speaker 6: Uh. They bet the under in rushing on for the

413
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:08,480
whole game as well.

414
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 1: You know that's the most bet on prop of the weekend,

415
00:19:11,279 --> 00:19:13,680
the under his rushing yards.

416
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 3: Wow.

417
00:19:14,599 --> 00:19:18,160
Speaker 6: Under m HM betting it wow. So they expect they

418
00:19:18,319 --> 00:19:19,440
I don't like when I see that.

419
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,039
Speaker 2: But MGM tweeted it out like two days ago that

420
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,599
the most the prop getting the most action was Woody

421
00:19:25,599 --> 00:19:26,759
Marks under rushing yards.

422
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:27,599
Speaker 6: Oh I like it.

423
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:27,799
Speaker 3: Then.

424
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 6: Oh, that's a good sign. Two days ago, that's a

425
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:30,079
good sign.

426
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,160
Speaker 1: Yea few days ago, it wasn't today it was over.

427
00:19:32,279 --> 00:19:35,839
Speaker 4: That means that that there were part money on that under.

428
00:19:36,519 --> 00:19:38,039
Speaker 6: I could promise you there is.

429
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 4: All that risk did not come from recreational accounts because

430
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,039
that that those recreational accounts. Remember they're posting up, and

431
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,759
nobody posting up has enough bank roll at least the

432
00:19:48,799 --> 00:19:52,000
majority of those bank account Those accounts don't have enough

433
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,319
funds in there to bet NBA college basketball every night

434
00:19:55,519 --> 00:19:59,400
and tie up NFL props for Sunday maybe Saturday, maybe,

435
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,119
but not that early on Sundays.

436
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 6: Right, that's all sharp money. That's a good sign.

437
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,519
Speaker 4: When you see that, so I think they're just flooded

438
00:20:06,519 --> 00:20:08,920
from sharp money, not public money on that one.

439
00:20:09,039 --> 00:20:11,519
Speaker 1: All right, perfect Well, Woody Mark's under longest rush.

440
00:20:11,599 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 2: I like that unique approach if you don't want to

441
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,319
bet on the side of what the books were saying,

442
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,359
everyone's on with Woody Marks under rushing, Kyraen Williams over

443
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,720
his rushing yards. I actually did like his under receiving

444
00:20:20,799 --> 00:20:23,599
yards and Blake Korum over twelve and a half yards

445
00:20:23,599 --> 00:20:26,240
for his longest rush. I love those unique markets, and

446
00:20:26,279 --> 00:20:27,680
I love watching Yanni the Greek on.

447
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 1: The steam room.

448
00:20:28,519 --> 00:20:31,160
Speaker 2: It is great today noon Eastern time. What else are

449
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:32,799
you promoting today, Yannie? Yeah?

450
00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 4: I have my NFL package is all four sides and

451
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,759
totals to both games. So again I told you I'm

452
00:20:39,799 --> 00:20:42,359
low volume this year, and it's been like that, thirty

453
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:43,559
bets in six days.

454
00:20:43,559 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 6: That's five bets a day average.

455
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,119
Speaker 4: We're not betting heavy volume, but when the board gives

456
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:49,799
you value, you got to take it.

457
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,839
Speaker 6: So I have the siding total in both games.

458
00:20:52,039 --> 00:20:54,759
Speaker 4: I have a five percent of you got the props already,

459
00:20:54,839 --> 00:20:57,359
probably a few more maybe added. So be in the

460
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,599
steam room cause live bets come in. I'll go over

461
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,960
and be I'll go over college basketball as well. I'll

462
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,480
answer all your questions, will over year to date and

463
00:21:04,599 --> 00:21:08,000
of course risk management. So Steamering goes live in about

464
00:21:08,039 --> 00:21:11,279
thirty five minutes, and yeah, we'll go over all that

465
00:21:11,319 --> 00:21:14,759
good stuff. Oh, National championships already up side in total

466
00:21:14,839 --> 00:21:17,680
four tomorrow night player props will be added as they

467
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,000
get confirmed, So a lot of action over the next

468
00:21:20,039 --> 00:21:20,720
twenty four hours.

469
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:21,880
Speaker 6: Best of luck to you, Ariel.

470
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 1: That's the blog.

471
00:21:23,279 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 2: Yanni ran the Yankees hat today, so I'm extra rooting

472
00:21:26,039 --> 00:21:29,119
for you hard. We'll talk to you next week. We've

473
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,880
got Teddy Covers joining the show right now and just

474
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:36,000
throw everybody knows, by the way, my good friend and

475
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,720
when I'm on this show aka my boss Kelly in

476
00:21:38,839 --> 00:21:42,680
Vegas just said that we are super closier at wager

477
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:43,240
Talk to two.

478
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: Hundred forty thousand subscribers.

479
00:21:45,559 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 2: So if you're not subscribing to the YouTube channel at

480
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,720
wager Talk, please do so because two hundred forty k

481
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,279
is massive for the wager Talk Bam. We appreciate you

482
00:21:54,319 --> 00:21:56,880
all being here and Teddy Covers in it from the start.

483
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,640
Teddy Covers a huge part of why we've got almost

484
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,759
two forty k here on the YouTube channel, How was

485
00:22:02,799 --> 00:22:03,640
your day yesterday?

486
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 3: Teddy?

487
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 5: So, my day yesterday was very simple.

488
00:22:07,559 --> 00:22:10,599
Speaker 7: I've been running terrible in basketball all week and I

489
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:11,799
looked at the card yesterday.

490
00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:12,599
Speaker 5: I had a really bad week.

491
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,079
Speaker 6: And who looked at the card me?

492
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 1: This week? Was that basketball crushed me this week?

493
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:17,559
Speaker 5: Yeah?

494
00:22:17,559 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 7: I My decision making was wrong. My short lists were okay.

495
00:22:22,759 --> 00:22:25,759
The games I was picking out of the shortlist were

496
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,279
just wrong and I either wrong or finding a way

497
00:22:29,279 --> 00:22:32,079
to lose at the end. And so I made my

498
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:33,759
shortlist for basketball yesterday.

499
00:22:33,759 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 5: I looked at it.

500
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 7: I'm looking at it. I'm going through the games and

501
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:40,359
I'm like, and I'm like, I just don't feel it.

502
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,720
I just don't feel like I'm so I passed. I

503
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,960
passed in basketball. I had one play in the NFL.

504
00:22:46,039 --> 00:22:47,640
I had the over in Denver Buffalo.

505
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 5: That was easy. It was right.

506
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,559
Speaker 7: It's good to be right and easy. So one play

507
00:22:52,559 --> 00:22:54,559
and at one no complaints that a yesterday.

508
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,559
Speaker 1: I love to hear that. I love to hear that.

509
00:22:57,599 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: And it's great because you and Kelly any on Monday

510
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,200
as you always look at everything really early here at

511
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,359
wager Talk and then you, I mean Obviously Monday you say, okay,

512
00:23:06,599 --> 00:23:09,640
here's what the lines opened as. And then throughout the week,

513
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,319
I'm sure you start to see things shift. So what's

514
00:23:12,319 --> 00:23:14,640
shifted since Monday that caught your eye for today?

515
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 7: So I mean the whole point of the opening line report.

516
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,960
You know, again, Kelly and I do it every Monday morning.

517
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,359
We'll do it again tomorrow morning, right and early eight

518
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,319
am Pacific time at eleven Becky right here on wager

519
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,880
Talk TV. And what we're trying to do with that

520
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,960
show is recap everything that happened the day before, you know,

521
00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:34,160
so we understand not just the final scores, but what

522
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,839
happened behind the final scores. Take a look at the

523
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:42,799
quotes from important relevant quotes from locker room, so we

524
00:23:42,839 --> 00:23:45,559
get a sense of how teams are feeling. We talk about,

525
00:23:45,839 --> 00:23:48,160
you know, my powering numbers for the teams when we

526
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,920
had look headlines and the regular season, talk to the

527
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,920
look head lines for these games, and of course talk

528
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,200
about where the lines opened and where they have moved

529
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,240
and where we expect them to move. That's the whole

530
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,119
point of the emergency betting alert concept is, Hey, if

531
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,599
you want this side bet, it's sooner rather than later,

532
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,920
So we do have that every Monday morning when we

533
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,559
look at the lines right now, what's happened this week, Well,

534
00:24:07,839 --> 00:24:10,119
we've seen under money for the Rams in Chicago because

535
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,440
of the weather. We've seen a little bit of Chicago money,

536
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:16,480
but nothing dramatic was in play on Monday morning. For

537
00:24:16,599 --> 00:24:19,559
New England Houston, we've seen a little bit of Patriots

538
00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:22,119
money come in throughout the course of the week. That is,

539
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:23,920
I think everything to do with Nico Collins and the

540
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:27,680
status of Nico Collins more than any other factor for

541
00:24:27,799 --> 00:24:30,160
the Texan So that's why we're seeing the threes and

542
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,720
a couple of three and a half's out there for

543
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:33,200
New England where it was two and a half three

544
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:38,599
on Monday. But compared to your average regular season week,

545
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,119
these lines haven't moved at all, you know. I mean

546
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:47,720
at this stage, the books know by mid January where

547
00:24:47,759 --> 00:24:49,759
these lines in total should be. They know where the

548
00:24:49,759 --> 00:24:51,279
wise guys are gonna bet, they know where the public

549
00:24:51,319 --> 00:24:53,400
is going to bet it. This time of the year,

550
00:24:53,599 --> 00:24:57,839
the line moves generally fairly limited, and we didn't see

551
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,119
much of that this week.

552
00:25:00,039 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 2: For the first game between the Texans and the Pats,

553
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,000
this line's been hovering around three. There were some two

554
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,640
and a half's earlier in the week. Now you're seeing

555
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,079
some three and a half's as well. Total drop forty

556
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:11,519
one and a half to forty and a half.

557
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: Yanni came on before said he felt the total was

558
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:14,440
too low.

559
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 2: Where I know you probably have some stuff up that

560
00:25:18,599 --> 00:25:21,240
you don't want to say, But what would you advise

561
00:25:21,319 --> 00:25:21,799
to people?

562
00:25:22,039 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 1: Whatever?

563
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 2: You can tell the audience what's out there right now

564
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:26,240
for game one?

565
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 7: Sure, so right now I have a one playoff for

566
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,480
today and it's in this game. Obviously I'm on the

567
00:25:30,519 --> 00:25:34,799
side for the Pets and the Texans, and surely you

568
00:25:34,799 --> 00:25:41,440
know from from which side you like standpoint. You know,

569
00:25:41,519 --> 00:25:43,200
there's a case you can make. There's a pretty good

570
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,119
case you can make for both teams. There really is.

571
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,720
I mean, I've undervalue New England all year, I really have.

572
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,119
And it costs me money.

573
00:25:50,279 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 5: You know.

574
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 7: I bet the Patriots under their season win total, you know,

575
00:25:53,319 --> 00:25:54,519
way back in the summer.

576
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 5: So that was wrong.

577
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 7: And obviously, if you're bett against New England throughout the

578
00:25:59,519 --> 00:26:01,200
course of the season, they've been not just a very

579
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,880
good straight up team, they've been a very good points

580
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:08,359
spread team. That said, from a defensive standpoint, Houston got

581
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,720
the better defense, and Houston, certainly when it comes to

582
00:26:10,759 --> 00:26:13,599
recent playoff victories, Texas have won playoff games. You know,

583
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,400
this is a third straight year that c J. Stroud

584
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,039
is winning the playoff games, you know, and it's certainly

585
00:26:19,519 --> 00:26:21,640
a team you don't want to sell short because of

586
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,839
their ability to create plays defensively. That being said, we

587
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,079
know how good it is, we know, and I guess

588
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,200
the real question for me maybe we find out today

589
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,039
how good Drake May is.

590
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 1: You know, is for sure.

591
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 7: Sure, if Drake May marches New England up and down

592
00:26:39,039 --> 00:26:41,119
the field today, we're going to think a little bit

593
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:42,039
differently about him.

594
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 5: Than we did before.

595
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: Well, we know, whoever wins this game is probably going

596
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,440
to the super Bowl. So that's at least nice to know.

597
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,519
Speaker 5: Well, if you're a Patriots fan, it is, and if

598
00:26:49,519 --> 00:26:50,400
you're a Texas fan it is.

599
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 7: But that being said, you know, I mean they were

600
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,720
talking about this, Carshon Wentz got hurt for Philadelphia the

601
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,880
exact same spot. Some guy named Nick Foles, who's Nick Foles?

602
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,240
You know, coming get hot for a couple of games.

603
00:27:01,519 --> 00:27:04,160
It's possible Jared'stidham.

604
00:27:03,799 --> 00:27:06,559
Speaker 1: Is not Kelly's broncos she's gonna be miserable.

605
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 7: Jaredda is not hopeless. That's all I'm gonna say. It's

606
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,640
not it's not there's no fricking you.

607
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: Guys were going to say that it was too many

608
00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:16,799
points like that.

609
00:27:16,839 --> 00:27:21,079
Speaker 2: You guys will say that they are going to overreact

610
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,119
to the Jared Stidham news. Like I have a feeling

611
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,079
that that's going to be the narrative when the lines

612
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:25,559
come out.

613
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 5: Did you see what Johnny just posted?

614
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,519
Speaker 7: No, he said, congratulations, We just this moment passed two

615
00:27:31,559 --> 00:27:33,160
ordan forty thousand subscribers.

616
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: I'm good.

617
00:27:36,319 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 7: We we really appreciate it, guys, the likes, the comments,

618
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,880
the follows, it makes all the difference, makes my day.

619
00:27:43,319 --> 00:27:45,599
It makes Ariel's day, you know. And two kids from Rockland,

620
00:27:45,599 --> 00:27:46,880
what are you gonna do. You gotta make their day

621
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,839
every once in a while. But thank you guys. And

622
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,079
if you haven't subscribed, it's not too late. You can

623
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:54,599
be two hundred and forty thousand and one.

624
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:55,839
Speaker 3: Just a yeah.

625
00:27:56,079 --> 00:27:58,319
Speaker 2: And I just told Kelly someone in the chat said

626
00:27:58,559 --> 00:28:01,039
when you hit a quarter of a million that we

627
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,599
should do a nice little special for people. So I'm

628
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:08,240
sure that that's the case, there will be something Johnny Detroit.

629
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,640
I'm just saying now that you should do a little

630
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,359
special to promote people to subscribe to get to two

631
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,400
fifty k. That would be a ton of fun once

632
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,279
we hit that Seddy the Lake game tonight, we do

633
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:20,960
have the Chicago Bears and the Rams.

634
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,559
Speaker 1: This one everyone's waiting for.

635
00:28:22,839 --> 00:28:25,759
Speaker 2: I love hearing from my friends that say I can't

636
00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:28,160
wait for this game, Like I'm excited to see all

637
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,119
the games because obviously there's so many things from an

638
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,000
NFL perspective, like winning in the trenches in this three

639
00:28:34,039 --> 00:28:36,680
PM game. The six thirty game, though, is the big

640
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,880
headliner for a reason. They have left that three and

641
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,039
a half up on.

642
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: The Bears all week. Lome, how much do you believe?

643
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 2: Because I believe that the Bears are frauds just as

644
00:28:47,039 --> 00:28:48,759
much as you haven't had faith in the Pads.

645
00:28:48,759 --> 00:28:49,279
Speaker 1: What about you?

646
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:55,519
Speaker 7: So the Bears are frauds, But the Bears are frauds

647
00:28:55,519 --> 00:28:58,799
with a quarterback who has guided them to seven victories

648
00:28:58,839 --> 00:29:01,400
this season when they trailed to the minute warning. So

649
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:06,559
they're frauds with confidence and that means something. They're frauds

650
00:29:06,559 --> 00:29:10,000
that have found ways all season long to steal games.

651
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,920
They're frauds whose defense continues to create turnovers. And they're

652
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:19,119
frauds who live in the cold and don't have to

653
00:29:19,319 --> 00:29:22,440
worry about Oh, how am I gonna acclimate after living

654
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,720
in LA for the last six years? Like a creaky,

655
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:30,519
injury riddled Matthew Stafford. You can make a case for

656
00:29:30,559 --> 00:29:32,119
the Bears today. You can make a strong case for

657
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,559
the Bears today. This is one of those games. Again,

658
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,039
weather doesn't matter ninety eight percent of the time in

659
00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:40,119
the NFL, but the two percent of the time that

660
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:44,000
it does matter, it can matter a lot. This is

661
00:29:44,039 --> 00:29:47,119
gonna be miserable conditions. This is gonna be gut this

662
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:54,680
game out. Who's tougher? You know, Chicago's tough, They're mentally tough,

663
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,960
not that the Rams aren't. But I'm not looking at

664
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,640
the Bears as muscle in this game. You know, Oh

665
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,559
the Rams out it's easy for LA. Oh they're the

666
00:30:03,559 --> 00:30:09,160
way better team the circumstances surrounding LA.

667
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 5: In this contest.

668
00:30:10,319 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 7: And look, LA was punched in the face last week

669
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,799
and they punched back. We like teams that are battle tested.

670
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:16,319
Speaker 5: LA.

671
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 7: Certainly, you know, no shortage of hunger for the Rams,

672
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:24,000
you know, and the experience with the hunger is a

673
00:30:24,039 --> 00:30:28,200
really powerful combination for LA that Chicago doesn't have that experience,

674
00:30:28,799 --> 00:30:32,599
But laying more than a field goal in these conditions

675
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,480
with this quarterback and his track record in cold games,

676
00:30:37,319 --> 00:30:38,200
I couldn't get there.

677
00:30:38,559 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 5: I couldn't get there.

678
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,559
Speaker 7: So I mean, I understand if you do, there's a

679
00:30:42,599 --> 00:30:43,640
case to be made for the Rams.

680
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:44,119
Speaker 5: I get it.

681
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 7: But can anyone say they're going to be shocked if

682
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,519
the Bears are down fourteen to three going to the

683
00:30:50,519 --> 00:30:53,119
fourth quarter and Caleb Williams puts together a rally and

684
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,960
rallies them back. I can't say you'd be shocked because

685
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,480
it's happened seven times already this year. You know more

686
00:30:59,519 --> 00:31:00,920
than that, even look at the four I mean, there's

687
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,480
also the games you didn't win, like the forty nine

688
00:31:02,559 --> 00:31:03,720
er game, where you know.

689
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:05,359
Speaker 5: Kayleb Williams is good.

690
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 7: You know, the Bears offense is good, and the defense

691
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,160
has made plays all year, so it's not consistent. But

692
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,519
for all the frauds that the Bears are, they can

693
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:16,359
give the Rams a game.

694
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: How much do you believe the NFC is the Super

695
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:19,559
Bowl champion?

696
00:31:20,759 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 5: Not that much?

697
00:31:21,799 --> 00:31:26,839
Speaker 7: No, No, I mean why so the Rams will be

698
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,119
favored over everyone, and Seattle is going to be favored

699
00:31:29,119 --> 00:31:32,480
over anyone that's not the Rams, you know, so they'll

700
00:31:32,519 --> 00:31:37,599
be Chock, but big Chalk. You know, it doesn't matter

701
00:31:37,599 --> 00:31:39,799
which of the four, which of the three remaining AFC

702
00:31:39,839 --> 00:31:42,640
teams get there. Obviously it's not Josh Allens. The NFC

703
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,839
team is likely to be favored, But does that mean

704
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,359
the AFC team can't win? Go look at the track

705
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,119
record of Chalk in the Super Bowl for the last

706
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,720
ten years. You don't want to be laying points in February.

707
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:55,799
You only want to be taking points.

708
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,799
Speaker 1: Hmm. I like that in sight, and I'm sure we'll

709
00:31:58,799 --> 00:32:00,559
get more of that as the time going on. Teddy,

710
00:32:00,559 --> 00:32:02,480
how much do you bet props in the playoffs?

711
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 7: A lot more when the Super Bowl rolls around. But

712
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:05,920
it's not like we don't look at them now.

713
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,759
Speaker 2: Okay, no props, but Teddy Covers find them at Teddy

714
00:32:08,799 --> 00:32:09,519
Underscore covers.

715
00:32:09,519 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: What are you promoting today?

716
00:32:10,799 --> 00:32:11,799
Speaker 5: We're talking NFL.

717
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:15,039
Speaker 7: Obviously, the NFL has been really good fourteen and seven

718
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,160
sixty seven percent over the last I think it's seven

719
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:22,079
weeks now, so single best bet for Patriots and Texans

720
00:32:22,519 --> 00:32:24,960
and we're still perusing the NBA. Car I'm not playing

721
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,039
anything in college today. Was a chance that may well

722
00:32:27,039 --> 00:32:28,920
post in the NBA over the course of the next

723
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:33,720
hour or so, So check my home page, WG dot, Buzz, Backslash, TC.

724
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,599
Speaker 2: Great stuff is always, Teddy, and catch them tomorrow with

725
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,319
Kelly and they will preview all of the lines right

726
00:32:40,359 --> 00:32:42,720
when they come out, well a little bit after they

727
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:43,759
come out on Sundays.

728
00:32:43,759 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: On Mondays, they look at it. Teddy. We'll see you

729
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:47,920
again next week and good luck this weekend.

730
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 5: Thanks Ariel joining the.

731
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:55,119
Speaker 2: Show now lest and certainly not least, even though now

732
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,599
we both have our teams out of the playoffs, which

733
00:32:58,640 --> 00:32:59,640
we kind of saw coming.

734
00:33:00,079 --> 00:33:03,559
Speaker 1: Our head coaches are both gone. Margot di'angelo back.

735
00:33:03,359 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 2: In action here on Wager Talk before we dive into

736
00:33:05,799 --> 00:33:09,480
the weekend. Your head coach Meg Tomlin is now out

737
00:33:09,519 --> 00:33:12,799
of Pittsburgh. They say today that they are still open

738
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,720
to potentially bringing back Aaron Rodgers. How are you feeling

739
00:33:15,759 --> 00:33:17,079
about the state of the Steelers.

740
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,039
Speaker 3: This is what I thought would end up happening. I

741
00:33:22,119 --> 00:33:24,319
thought that he would resign at the end of the year.

742
00:33:24,359 --> 00:33:28,759
It's been a long year for coach Tomlin in the

743
00:33:28,799 --> 00:33:32,799
way that it ended on Monday night, you could I

744
00:33:32,799 --> 00:33:35,279
could just see it in his eyes. You know, he's

745
00:33:35,279 --> 00:33:38,880
had enough. As far as Aaron Rodgers coming back, I

746
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,759
really thought that there was a good shot that he

747
00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:45,160
would come back next year, given you know the way

748
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:49,200
they finished the season minus the last game. But I

749
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,640
don't know now, with the last game the way it

750
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,880
went and with coach Tomlin gone, I don't know that

751
00:33:56,039 --> 00:34:00,640
Aaron Rodgers would come back. In stories of surface from

752
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:06,480
some locker room reporter leaked it out that Aaron Rodgers

753
00:34:06,559 --> 00:34:10,800
was visibly upset when Tomlin told the team that he

754
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:16,480
was resigning, stepping down in He was quoted as say,

755
00:34:16,679 --> 00:34:19,440
Aaron Rodgers gave him a hug and said, I'm sorry,

756
00:34:19,639 --> 00:34:21,039
like Rogers put it on him.

757
00:34:21,599 --> 00:34:22,639
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm glad.

758
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 3: We'll see whatever.

759
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,079
Speaker 2: It was a long time coming that they at least

760
00:34:26,079 --> 00:34:29,719
had a respectable quarterback in that room and a respectable

761
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,440
head coach for Aaron Rodgers. So very happy for the

762
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,760
both of them to at least have that. Let's step

763
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,519
into today because everyone just wants some winners. We've got

764
00:34:37,519 --> 00:34:40,679
Game one, three pm Eastern time, Houston Texans on the

765
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,679
road at the New England Patriots line has fluctuated between

766
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,719
minus two and a half three three and a half.

767
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:51,800
We've gotten conflicting viewpoints from Yannie and from Teddy.

768
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:54,119
Speaker 1: How do you see this.

769
00:34:54,199 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 2: Game playing out? And again the total two has dropped

770
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:57,360
by a point.

771
00:34:58,280 --> 00:34:58,519
Speaker 5: Yeah.

772
00:34:58,599 --> 00:35:01,199
Speaker 3: Well, when you look at a game like this, obviously

773
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,000
you know we've got two of the better defenses here.

774
00:35:04,159 --> 00:35:07,039
And the narrative in this game is going to be

775
00:35:07,119 --> 00:35:09,679
one of the narratives that's in the next game as well.

776
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,280
Because when we talk about New England and we talk

777
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,760
about Chicago, everybody's going to make the reference and they're

778
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,639
going to point out the schedule. Okay, and we that's

779
00:35:19,679 --> 00:35:22,159
what we do. I mean, we have to handicap what

780
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,840
we have. And New England had a softer schedule. Why

781
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:28,840
did they have a softer schedule Because they had a

782
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,960
bad record last year, that's what you get. And the

783
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,519
same thing with Chicago. They had a very easy schedule

784
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,960
for most of the season, but they took care of business.

785
00:35:39,039 --> 00:35:42,119
Now the second part, when we get to Chicago, we'll

786
00:35:42,159 --> 00:35:44,599
talk about how they've won their games. But when we

787
00:35:44,639 --> 00:35:47,599
look at New England, you've got a new head coach

788
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,119
in Mike Rabel and what he has done there and

789
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:57,840
the maturity of how much Drake May has gone from

790
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,559
his rookie season to year two. Remember last year, he

791
00:36:01,639 --> 00:36:05,119
didn't start the season. He didn't become the quarterback till

792
00:36:05,199 --> 00:36:07,559
later in the season last year. So this is a

793
00:36:07,599 --> 00:36:11,000
guy that's just a little bit over a full year

794
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,360
of NFL games and he is getting better by the week,

795
00:36:15,679 --> 00:36:19,119
and last week he's the reason they beat the Chargers. Now,

796
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,199
to me, I think when people look at the two

797
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,639
games last week, they look at Houston's win over Pittsburgh

798
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:30,280
and they look at New England's win over the Chargers.

799
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,880
I think the New England win looked more impressive to

800
00:36:34,559 --> 00:36:38,719
the eye test because they shut down the Chargers from

801
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,960
the start. You know, the Chargers scored three three points.

802
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,320
You had a you know, a good quarterback and Justin

803
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,239
Herbert that couldn't get anything going. He was under durest

804
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,480
the entire game. But that offensive line for the Chargers

805
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,280
is horrible. We've seen it all year because of the injuries.

806
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:01,079
When he did have time to throw, Herbert was completing

807
00:37:01,119 --> 00:37:03,559
passes and they were, you know, getting gains. But the

808
00:37:03,599 --> 00:37:06,519
problem was he was getting sacked too many times or

809
00:37:06,559 --> 00:37:09,119
having to run for his life or throw the ball away.

810
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,920
That's not gonna happen this week against the Texans. They've

811
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,280
got a good offensive line.

812
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 4: C J.

813
00:37:16,159 --> 00:37:20,760
Speaker 3: Stroud, you know, he's not really scrambling quarterback, but he's

814
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:25,440
definitely more elusive than Justin Herbert is. Now. The problem

815
00:37:25,559 --> 00:37:28,320
with c J. Stroud is will we have three turnovers

816
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:32,679
like last week? But give that Houston credit defense wise,

817
00:37:33,039 --> 00:37:36,519
they kept putting themselves in bad positions and they totally

818
00:37:36,599 --> 00:37:39,760
shut down the Steelers and granted the Steelers offense. We

819
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,079
know the problems that they've had at different times during

820
00:37:42,119 --> 00:37:46,039
the season, but Pittsburgh couldn't get anything going. I am

821
00:37:46,079 --> 00:37:51,199
a big proponent of defense, and Houston has by far

822
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:55,119
the best defense. I grouped the defenses in the NFL

823
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,679
is one in one A and one is Houston. One

824
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,760
A is Seattle, and we saw what Seattle did last

825
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:06,079
night to the forty nine ers. I think Houston gets

826
00:38:06,079 --> 00:38:09,199
the job done and they've got the game plan because

827
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,039
the only reason that New England had as much success

828
00:38:12,119 --> 00:38:15,719
as they did was because of Drake May in his feet.

829
00:38:16,519 --> 00:38:21,119
He extended drives with his feet because everybody was turning

830
00:38:21,159 --> 00:38:24,519
their back and going in coverage that's not going to

831
00:38:24,559 --> 00:38:27,199
happen this week. Houston saw the game film. They'll be

832
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:31,280
prepared for that. They'll leave a spy on him. He's

833
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:35,119
going to have to beat the Texans with his arm,

834
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,440
not with his feet this week, and I don't know

835
00:38:37,519 --> 00:38:40,079
that he can do it against the defense of this caliber.

836
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,840
Houston's held nine of twelve of their last twelve opponents

837
00:38:45,039 --> 00:38:48,119
to under one hundred yards rushing. If you can make

838
00:38:48,159 --> 00:38:51,519
a team one dimensional, it's so much easier to defend.

839
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:53,920
And if you look at the full body of work

840
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,960
for the season, they've played eighteen games. They've held fifteen

841
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:02,239
of those eighteen opponents to one or fewer points. Give

842
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,639
me the points with the Texans.

843
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 1: I love to hear it. That's what I have in

844
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:07,639
my pickam pool.

845
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 2: And I thought my pick'm pool was over in the

846
00:39:10,519 --> 00:39:13,039
regular season, and jokes on me. We go all the

847
00:39:13,039 --> 00:39:15,360
way through the Super Bowl and the points just get higher.

848
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,719
So even though I finished number one in the regular season,

849
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,920
it meant nothing. So I need the Eastern Texans today.

850
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:24,199
I also need the Los Angeles Rams. And I don't

851
00:39:24,199 --> 00:39:26,039
know if you're on the same side as me, but

852
00:39:26,639 --> 00:39:30,719
I don't like the Bears. They have been frauds. They

853
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,840
screwed me out of the Packers last week, and I'm

854
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,159
just gonna go back to the well and say that

855
00:39:36,199 --> 00:39:39,239
the Los Angeles Rams, even though the book deemed them

856
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,039
as ten and a half point favorites last week against Carolina,

857
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,079
going into this week being road favorites laying three and

858
00:39:45,119 --> 00:39:45,559
a half.

859
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 1: The narrative the Rams are a West Coast team, They're

860
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,400
used to the warm weather. They play indoors. It's gonna

861
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,039
be cold, it's gonna be snowy. How much are you

862
00:39:55,039 --> 00:39:56,960
buying into this public narrative?

863
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,599
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, let's address the weather. Yes, that's

864
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,440
if I hear one more time that Stafford's one and

865
00:40:03,599 --> 00:40:07,400
nine in the cold. You know that's great. But every

866
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,079
game is on its own merit. And do you remember

867
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,639
the game in the playoffs last year against Philadelphia? Yeah

868
00:40:13,639 --> 00:40:17,119
it was it was cold in Philadelphia, and yeah they

869
00:40:17,159 --> 00:40:17,920
lost the game.

870
00:40:18,039 --> 00:40:22,519
Speaker 2: You're going to retire potentially, right if Matthew Stafford said

871
00:40:22,559 --> 00:40:26,679
there's a chance he retires this year, then wouldn't you

872
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:30,719
not give two craps after an entire incredible career to

873
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,280
try and cap it off with a Super Bowl ring

874
00:40:33,599 --> 00:40:36,079
to send you off into a potential Hall of Fame,

875
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,760
Like I don't care if it's nose, and I don't

876
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:39,719
care if it's cold.

877
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 1: If I'm thinking of retiring.

878
00:40:42,079 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 3: He played well last year in Philadelphia. They should have

879
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,760
They could have won that game, should have could have

880
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,440
they were in it against the Eagles last year in Philadelphia.

881
00:40:50,519 --> 00:40:53,800
So I'm not gonna let that part bother me, you know,

882
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,880
because you know, you watch bet on It. You know

883
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,840
the year we've had involving the Chicago Bears, they have

884
00:41:00,079 --> 00:41:03,519
been an absolute pain in my ass? Can I say

885
00:41:03,559 --> 00:41:08,199
that because we've gone against them in different spots, We've

886
00:41:08,199 --> 00:41:09,880
taken them in a couple of spots, and it seems

887
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:11,800
like it doesn't matter if I'm with or against them,

888
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,360
they find a way to beat me. I was on

889
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:18,960
green Bay big last week, and you know, again, give

890
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,719
Chicago credit, they found a way to come back and

891
00:41:23,599 --> 00:41:26,280
win that game. But you know how much of that

892
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:31,199
comeback win was you know, green Bay with just absolute

893
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:35,360
idiotic clock management down the stretch with what they did

894
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:39,559
in that game. So again they get it done. But

895
00:41:39,639 --> 00:41:41,920
I found a different way to play this game there

896
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,920
and this this is what I'm gonna do with it.

897
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,239
And because the Rams. And if we want to talk

898
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:51,039
about that narrative about the cold, when are you going

899
00:41:51,119 --> 00:41:53,679
to be at your best in this game? If the

900
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:55,760
cold is going to be a factor for you, it's

901
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,559
gonna be in the first half. You got the adrenaline running,

902
00:41:59,119 --> 00:42:02,599
You're coming out of the locker room. You're warm. He'd say, Oh,

903
00:42:02,639 --> 00:42:04,800
I hope he's not telling us to take the dogs. Now,

904
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,719
come on, we're not taking We're not taking the dogs

905
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,519
there first game. Yes, he's agreeing with us, but we're

906
00:42:11,519 --> 00:42:15,880
gonna take the Rams first half. And here's my narrative

907
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,960
for that. And I've got several reasons why we're gonna

908
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,800
look this way. You've you've got the Rams minus two

909
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:25,159
and a half first half one. You know that McVeigh

910
00:42:26,039 --> 00:42:29,840
offensive minded coach. Okay, he has that script. All right.

911
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:34,119
They come out there generally their first drives are always impressive,

912
00:42:34,159 --> 00:42:36,960
all right. They know what they're gonna do, and they

913
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,119
want the ball whenever. You know, if they win the

914
00:42:39,119 --> 00:42:41,639
coin toss, they generally are gonna take the ball. So

915
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:43,119
we're gonna go ahead and lay the two and a

916
00:42:43,159 --> 00:42:46,159
half with them. Whether you come out, you know, you

917
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,519
just come out of the locker room you're warm, You're

918
00:42:48,559 --> 00:42:51,000
gonna start the game. Cold's not gonna affect you at

919
00:42:51,039 --> 00:42:53,920
the beginning of the game as much as it would

920
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:58,079
affect you coming out of halftime after you've been out

921
00:42:58,119 --> 00:43:03,519
there playing sweating. Old go in, fall out for fifteen minutes,

922
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:08,039
come back out. Okay, that's when your old body is teddy.

923
00:43:08,159 --> 00:43:11,159
Just like to say, you know, an old Matthew Stafford

924
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,239
that's been on the West Coast, you know, with the

925
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,800
sand and the sun and the surf, might feel it

926
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:19,679
a little bit more. But here's the reality of it.

927
00:43:20,199 --> 00:43:23,480
Last six games. This is the scores at halftime for

928
00:43:23,519 --> 00:43:25,960
the Chicago Bears, And I'm going to go backwards from

929
00:43:26,079 --> 00:43:29,760
last week twenty one to three. They were down to

930
00:43:30,599 --> 00:43:34,039
Green Bay two weeks before that final game of the season,

931
00:43:34,079 --> 00:43:36,880
down thirteen to nothing to the Lions, which by the way,

932
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,679
was the only cash I've had against the Fairs. I

933
00:43:39,679 --> 00:43:43,840
had the Lions in that game San Francisco at San Francisco,

934
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,920
down twenty eight to twenty one at the half against

935
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,880
green Bay the second meeting of the regular season, down

936
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,760
six to nothing at half. The only game they were

937
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:59,039
winning at halftime in the last six games was Cleveland

938
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,679
playing them at a home they were up fourteen to nothing,

939
00:44:02,079 --> 00:44:04,719
and then the week before that they played Green Bay.

940
00:44:06,159 --> 00:44:08,400
At Green Bay they were down fourteen to three at

941
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,239
the half. Five out of six of their last games

942
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,800
they've been down at the half. Last two months of

943
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:18,719
the season. Average score for the Rams first half seveneen

944
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:22,280
to twelve in favor of the Rams, last two months

945
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:27,119
of the season, Chicago halftime score eight point seven to

946
00:44:27,159 --> 00:44:31,480
twelve point one down. They're only averaging eight points per

947
00:44:31,559 --> 00:44:34,519
game first half last two months of the season. That's

948
00:44:34,559 --> 00:44:36,920
the narrative I'm gonna go with. I'm gonna take the

949
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,920
Rams first half and then whatever happens in the second

950
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,000
half can happen. But I do agree, I like the Rams.

951
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,039
If you ask me who I want for the full game,

952
00:44:46,159 --> 00:44:48,880
it is the Rams. But I'm gonna attack it differently

953
00:44:49,079 --> 00:44:50,559
and go with Rams first half.

954
00:44:51,079 --> 00:44:52,639
Speaker 1: I like that play. I like it a lot.

955
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:54,519
Speaker 2: A lot of people have actually mentioned that to me

956
00:44:54,559 --> 00:44:56,920
about not trusting the Bears in the second half in

957
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,840
regards to you know, having like laying points against them.

958
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:01,960
They always find a way in the second half to

959
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:03,639
make it close, so at least just go with the

960
00:45:03,679 --> 00:45:04,199
first half.

961
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:05,039
Speaker 1: I like that approach.

962
00:45:05,639 --> 00:45:11,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's change the narrative on them, because me vr Kelly,

963
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:15,639
we all are calling them fraud. Yeah, maybe maybe we

964
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,719
might have to change the narrative and say, maybe there's

965
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:19,559
a team of destiny.

966
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, the only destiny is them losing.

967
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,000
I hope. Let's give it up for Marco D'Angelo. Mark

968
00:45:31,119 --> 00:45:32,559
in Vegas is where you can find them. What are

969
00:45:32,559 --> 00:45:34,519
you promoting today, Well.

970
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,199
Speaker 3: I do have a play. I told you two plays

971
00:45:37,199 --> 00:45:39,239
that I like in football today. One of them is

972
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:43,199
a four percent play over at wager talk. Last two years,

973
00:45:43,199 --> 00:45:46,559
college and NFL combined, we're number two in money one

974
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:51,119
at wager talk. We've been altered consistent. College basketball is

975
00:45:51,159 --> 00:45:54,199
off to a good start. We're hitting sixty three percent

976
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:58,000
for the season. I go very cautiously in the month

977
00:45:58,119 --> 00:46:02,679
of December with college basket because my willhouse is conference play.

978
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,599
I love conference play, especially when we get into the

979
00:46:05,599 --> 00:46:09,960
second meetings in some of these conferences. So jump on board.

980
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,719
We've got the deal at wager talk. It's the best

981
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:14,840
deal going right now. You can buy a seven day

982
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,519
package of your favorite capp or for the price of

983
00:46:17,559 --> 00:46:20,559
a three day just sixty nine dollars. You get every

984
00:46:20,599 --> 00:46:24,840
play every every sport, and that includes five percent plays

985
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:26,599
when we have them. And you know those five percent

986
00:46:26,599 --> 00:46:30,880
plays sell for thirty five dollars by themselves, me personally

987
00:46:31,159 --> 00:46:33,719
on a forty one and nineteen run over the last

988
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,639
two years with my five percent plays. So sure to

989
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,639
grab a seven day all access from your favorite cap

990
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:40,639
or at wager Talk.

991
00:46:41,559 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 2: Marco di'angelo find him at Marco in Vegas. Thanks as

992
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:46,000
always for coming on the show and good luck.

993
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,039
Speaker 3: Today, No problem, thanks, Ariel.

994
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:50,199
Speaker 1: I've got a few props to mention.

995
00:46:50,599 --> 00:46:53,679
Speaker 2: A lot of people are loving Christian Kirk because Nico

996
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,119
Collins is out and Christian Kirk has looked really good.

997
00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:58,639
Speaker 1: For the Houston Texans last week.

998
00:46:58,519 --> 00:47:02,159
Speaker 2: Right, well, you know actually has done the best on

999
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:07,079
the Houston Texans without Nico Collins Xavier Hutchinson. He's put

1000
00:47:07,159 --> 00:47:09,159
up in the two games without Nico Collins sixty nine

1001
00:47:09,199 --> 00:47:11,800
and eighty four receiving yards. His prop was twenty six

1002
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:13,519
and a half earlier. This week, it's already up to

1003
00:47:13,519 --> 00:47:16,360
twenty eight and a half. So go and grab Xavier

1004
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:20,239
Hutchinson and it's over receiving yards. Drake may I've been

1005
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,599
betting the under on his completions the last couple of weeks,

1006
00:47:22,599 --> 00:47:23,840
and I'm going to go back to it. It was

1007
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:25,800
twenty and a half last week we hit the under.

1008
00:47:26,159 --> 00:47:27,800
I'm gonna go back to under nineteen and a half

1009
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:31,679
completions against team's top ten in completions allowed. Drake May

1010
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,920
is averaging eighteen completions a game that drops to seventeen

1011
00:47:35,079 --> 00:47:37,800
at home. He's getting a Houston team allowing the seventh

1012
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:41,400
least completions per game at eighteen. Sixty five percent of

1013
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,119
quarterbacks have gone under their completion prop when facing the

1014
00:47:44,159 --> 00:47:49,159
Houston Texans, so Drake May under completions and the over

1015
00:47:49,599 --> 00:47:54,480
on Xavier Hutchinson. I don't want to bet the New

1016
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,360
England running backs, to be honest. I know Ramandre Stevenson's

1017
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,599
props have gone up and Trevion Henderson's have dropped. Houston's

1018
00:48:00,639 --> 00:48:03,519
allowing the fourth least rushing yards per game. I have

1019
00:48:03,639 --> 00:48:06,760
zero interest in this. I don't like choosing between backs,

1020
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:08,800
and I don't like the matchup for the running backs either.

1021
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:11,599
Hunter Henry has been great at home, but the Texans

1022
00:48:11,639 --> 00:48:14,360
have been really good against tight ends this season. Sixty

1023
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:16,880
one percent of tight ends have gone under their prop.

1024
00:48:17,079 --> 00:48:19,519
But Hunter Henry at home, I cannot fade him, so

1025
00:48:19,639 --> 00:48:24,000
again I'll probably just stay away. Caleb Williams, the prop

1026
00:48:24,039 --> 00:48:26,159
I like the most done him was his past attempt

1027
00:48:26,159 --> 00:48:28,840
prop over thirty two and a half. He's actually averaging

1028
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,199
thirty eight pass attempts a game win against team's bottom

1029
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,119
ten and pass attempts allowed at home in prime time,

1030
00:48:34,199 --> 00:48:37,039
he's averaging thirty six pass attempts per game going over

1031
00:48:37,159 --> 00:48:40,239
in three of four. The Rams allowed the seventh most

1032
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:42,280
pass attempts per game. If you're gonna win, or you're

1033
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,559
gonna try to win, you got to attack the Rams secondary.

1034
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,079
So I would take the over on the pass attempts

1035
00:48:47,119 --> 00:48:52,480
For Caleb Williams, I can't.

1036
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 1: Decide between the Bears. Webe receivers.

1037
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: It's a really good matchup for Rome Dunze and DJ Moore.

1038
00:48:58,159 --> 00:49:01,880
Problem is deciding between the two. I would go longest

1039
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:04,679
reception over on one of them. I will say, looking

1040
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:08,679
game by game, the number one deep threats have been

1041
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:11,639
pretty limited. So maybe since I dun Say went over

1042
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,039
last week and DJ Moore didn't, maybe they flip flop

1043
00:49:14,079 --> 00:49:16,199
and DJ Moore has a big catch this week. Sixteen

1044
00:49:16,199 --> 00:49:18,760
and a half is the prop he's averaging nineteen yards

1045
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,920
for longest reception when he's up against teams bottom ten

1046
00:49:22,119 --> 00:49:25,239
in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Problem is at

1047
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,079
home that only drops to twelve yards for longest reception.

1048
00:49:28,679 --> 00:49:29,880
Speaker 1: Rome Dunze has.

1049
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,119
Speaker 2: Actually been the best one twenty eight receiving yards for

1050
00:49:32,199 --> 00:49:34,559
longest catch, and at home that number stays the same.

1051
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:36,159
Speaker 1: But again it concerns me.

1052
00:49:36,199 --> 00:49:38,079
Speaker 2: He had a twenty seven yeard catch last week, his

1053
00:49:38,159 --> 00:49:40,679
first came back since number twenty eight. Why is this

1054
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:42,760
number seventeen and a half and why is it not

1055
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:45,119
twenty and a half twenty one and a half. So

1056
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,360
it does scare me a little bit. Yanni gave out

1057
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,440
earlier Kyron Williams over rushing yards fifty nine and a

1058
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:52,559
half and sixteen.

1059
00:49:52,199 --> 00:49:55,320
Speaker 1: And a half. I like Kyen Williams under receiving yards.

1060
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 2: So I guess it could go hand in hand if

1061
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:59,000
you feel like the Rams running back is not going

1062
00:49:59,039 --> 00:50:01,599
to involved in the passing game as he is in

1063
00:50:01,639 --> 00:50:05,159
the run game against team's top ten in receiving yards

1064
00:50:05,199 --> 00:50:08,280
allowed to running backs, Kyraen william is not. He's gone

1065
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,880
over excuse me, he's gone under ten and a half.

1066
00:50:13,079 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: Oh, it's his longest catch. I think yeah's longest catch.

1067
00:50:16,639 --> 00:50:17,760
Oh it's a tough one.

1068
00:50:18,679 --> 00:50:21,079
Speaker 2: Chicago ten plays receiving yards per game to running backs

1069
00:50:21,079 --> 00:50:22,280
fifty nine percent one under.

1070
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:25,199
Speaker 1: But the ones that I probably like the most.

1071
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 2: Are the Caleb Williams over pass attempt prop, the trick

1072
00:50:30,559 --> 00:50:36,039
may under completions prop, and the Xavier Hutchinson over receiving

1073
00:50:36,119 --> 00:50:39,840
yards prop. If you do want CJ. Stroud numbers without

1074
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:43,719
Nico Collins, it's a ten game sample size. He actually

1075
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,880
is averaging two hundred and twenty and a half passing

1076
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,000
yards with him and two twenty eight without him, So

1077
00:50:48,079 --> 00:50:51,800
eight yards more completions don't change much. He averages like

1078
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,159
one more pass attempt per game. So it's really the

1079
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,320
passing yards. People are gonna think, oh no, no, Nico Collins.

1080
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:01,599
That's bad for CJ. Stroud. It's actually even to produce

1081
00:51:02,519 --> 00:51:05,519
like he's actually doing a little bit better without Nico Collins.

1082
00:51:05,599 --> 00:51:07,239
So just something to keep in mind there when it

1083
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:10,119
comes to c J. Stroudprops today for the Houston game.

1084
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:11,199
Speaker 1: Game start three.

1085
00:51:11,079 --> 00:51:14,679
Speaker 2: Pm Eastern Time, then six thirty pm Eastern Time. We

1086
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,960
are here every Sunday eleven am Eastern time. Good luck

1087
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,320
to all of your bets. Thank you for everyone who

1088
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:24,599
who has Sister. Thank you to everyone who has subscribed

1089
00:51:24,639 --> 00:51:27,400
to wager Talk. We have hit two hundred forty K

1090
00:51:27,599 --> 00:51:30,239
on the YouTube channel, which really means a lot to everybody.

1091
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:33,159
Speaker 1: Here to fifty k, Kelly says, there will be a promotion.

1092
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:35,159
So if you could get your friends and everybody to

1093
00:51:35,199 --> 00:51:37,760
subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube channel and get the

1094
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:42,360
two hundred and fifty k, there'll be something for everybody.

1095
00:51:42,639 --> 00:51:45,519
Nice little prize. Again, good luck to all your bets.

1096
00:51:45,599 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 2: We will see you guys next week here on Sunday's

1097
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:50,719
Last Call, the last one before the Super Bowl. Sunday

1098
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:53,559
Last Call eleven am Eastern Time always, so we'll see

1099
00:51:53,559 --> 00:51:54,159
you next week