Speaker 1: Happy Sunday.
Speaker 2: It's last called Sunday Divisional Round Day two edition on
the prop Queen Aria Epstein. We've got two games on
the slate. Tonight, three pm Eastern time is when it's beginning.
The Houston Texans are taken on the New England Patriots,
and then at six thirty pm Eastern time, we've got
the big game going on between the Los Angeles Rams
and the Chicago Bears. Whether as a factor today, people,
we are going to have some snow here on the
East Coast, so make sure to check out the snow
here in New York it's going to start around three
four o'clock and in Chicago it's going to be really
cold and snowy. To talk about all the games today,
we'll be joined by Yanni the Greek, then Teddy Covers
and then Marco ze Angelo.
Speaker 1: We've also got.
Speaker 2: The needs of the day, So for the people that
love the needs, we need to avoid New England by three.
They laid two and a half and three and took
plus three and a half. So that's from Art over
at the super Book. They need the as well because
they have a lot of futures on the Rams. Over
at the Westgates super Book, so make sure to look
at that for the NFL. And then some sharp college
basketball Green Bay Wisconsin plus four and a half, Whichita
State plus nine and a half, UTSA plus twenty one
and a half, FAU minus three, and Maryland over one
forty seven and a half. That's all coming from art
Over at the Westgates super Book.
Speaker 1: Those are the needs of the day.
Speaker 2: So really the needs in the NFL again, they need
to avoid New England by three. They laid negative minus
two and a half minus three and took plus three
and a half. And then they also need the Rams
to lose. But honestly, I'm really hoping that the Rams
win because I have the Houston Texans and the Rams
in a pick and pool.
Speaker 1: Yesterday I did lay it with the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: I thought that number was pretty fishy, laying seven in
divisional game third time around. And then I also had
the Denver Broncos, who, if you guys have been sleeping
all morning and fell asleep last night, found out that
Bone Nicks is out for the rest of the season.
The Denver quarterback broke a bone in his foot or
inkle and he is going to be out for the
rest of the season.
Speaker 1: So it's Jared Sidham's turn in the AFC Championship game.
Speaker 2: So if there really was a script in the NFL,
I have a high feeling that Jared Sidham was not
in the script. Yanni the Greek always knows the script.
That's why he's one of the sharpest guys I know.
Yanni the Greek joining the show live from Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Everyone in the.
Speaker 2: Steam room is free today, by the way, and it
makes me even happier.
Speaker 1: Yanni's repping my New York Yankees. A happy Sunday something.
Speaker 3: I'm comfortable.
Speaker 4: Okay that the computer I usually use the apples, and
they're giving me problems, but I had a full time PA.
They start tomorrow, so these issues will go away. I'm
just not good with this stuff.
Speaker 2: So now, well, we only care about what you are
good at, and that's obviously giving us winners each week.
Speaker 1: How is your Saturday?
Speaker 5: Good?
Speaker 3: Good?
Speaker 6: I made money. I made money. That's always a good thing.
Speaker 4: And yeah, it's been a good NFL season overall, good
college football season overall. I lost last Sunday, had a
winning Saturday in football, but lost on Sunday, so I
expected a good bounce back. That's exactly what happened yesterday,
and we're loaded loaded for bear today. Today I got
a lot of action even fire to five percent. So
we'll see how in NFL or college NFL, NFL today
it's all back. I haven't released anything in college basketball
yet today. Been really selective, been winning, been doing really good.
Speaker 6: It's been just.
Speaker 4: Been one of those weeks where staying selective has been
paying off. I think since Monday, I'm twenty and nine,
so giving out only thirty bets, hit close to seventy
percent of them, up over thirty units, and just grinding.
And yeah, like I said, good games.
Speaker 1: Player, you're going to be grinding today. How much do
you care about the snow in the forecast?
Speaker 6: Listen, it's already factored into the price. That's that's the key.
Speaker 4: And you're seeing that that nothing is really reflecting it,
Like you don't see the total moving down two or
three points, so the market doesn't care. It was kind
of like we were talking about what quarterback was supposed
to be possibly injured yesterday?
Speaker 6: Was that the Seattle court or the round?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Sam Darnold had the oblique injury.
Speaker 4: Yeah, all's he had to do is look up at
the board. The line didn't move, not even a half
a point.
Speaker 6: It was totally fun.
Speaker 2: The only thing that impacted was I really did love
his passing yards over. I didn't bet it because of
the injury. I love the passing yards over, but it
was fecially the same way that his number was before
the injury two twenty nine and a half. But he
never went over two hundred passing yards this year against
San fran the same way that that game was only
thirteen to three in the last week of the season.
These two played a aty twice their divisional rivals.
Speaker 1: Laying seven at home.
Speaker 2: In a playoff game against your divisional rival is crazy.
Like the book was literally telling us the story on me.
Speaker 4: Yes, they were, and listen, here's the thing you gotta remember.
The book's going to stick to their power ratings, especially
this late in the season, and the only adjustment they're
going to make is for risk or if there's a
big narrative. That's why I don't understand why betters care
what the book needs this late in the season. They
don't need anything. They just need you to place a bet.
Have you walked into a sportsbook lately and seen the
bets that people are placing. What does the book need?
They just need to open their doors. Like people are
placing the craziest bets I've ever like they're taking as
negative b b as that take they don't need anything.
Speaker 6: At the end of the.
Speaker 4: Day, they get very close to fifty to fifty. When
you get this late in the season. Yes, early on
in the week you're gonna hear team as getting all
the money because the lion's moving in that direction. But
by the time the games kick off, they're much closer
to fifty to fifty. Yes, there's always a side of
books gonna prefer over another, but I promise you, when
the dust settles at the end of the day, regardless
what the outcome is, the books are gonna make money today.
Speaker 6: It doesn't matter whether.
Speaker 4: The Houston wins, New England wins, the game goes over,
the game goes under, Rams wins, Chicago wins, the game
goes over, games goes under.
Speaker 6: The book's gonna make money.
Speaker 4: Why because betters are going to continue to place the
negative V bets. They're going to continue to parlay these games.
They're then continue to tease these games with totals. They're
going to continue to, you know, just look for action.
And as long as they do that, again, the book
really doesn't need anything as far as fading the public
this late in the season. If that's the approach, you
got to revisit the thesis. That's not going to make
you money. Right now, again, yesterday, what did we see?
Money was on Denver? Was kept coming in on Denver.
They even went the favorite What happened Denver wins? We
knew the sharp money was on Seattle early on. Yes,
they did take San Francisco plus seven and a half?
What happened Seattle goes in there and blows them away.
So again, don't be too concerned of where the money is.
If you have conviction and you trust your numbers, that's
all it's got to come down to this late in
the season. Now, let me pull up this. Are we
still on here?
Speaker 6: I think so?
Speaker 5: Right? Ariel, Hey, yeah, we're alive.
Speaker 6: Are I didn't know if I lost their No, it's me,
it was not me.
Speaker 1: That's my bad.
Speaker 2: It x'd out by accident. No, So I want to start,
how will we make money on this game? Because three
o'clock Eastern time, you said it's hard when you come in,
so late into the slate.
Speaker 1: Like right now, people are.
Speaker 2: Run into the window or run into their apps and
they're trying to get some action three o'clock Eastern time.
Speaker 1: Where is there still value on the board or what
is still a good bet to you?
Speaker 4: Well, the good thing is if the lines aren't going
to move much in the playoffs, So like that's that's
the thing. You got to focus on what you like
because you don't have to get out. It's very different,
like the landscape of the market changes when you get
to the playoffs. These lines aren't moved. Look at the rams,
Look at the opener was Look what the line is.
They're not going to move. The only time they're movement
is around a key number or if a player gets hurt.
So you don't have to be first. It doesn't matter
about when you're you know again, some totals are gonna move.
Like we saw the rams in Chicago that under got steam.
They opened it at fifty one. That fifty one was
available at very few places. In fact, it didn't last
more than a couple minutes. Got the fifty and a
half fifty down the forty nine, but once it got
the forty nine, that's pretty much where it stayed forty
nine forty eight and a half in the playoffs.
Speaker 6: That's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 4: So it isn't really that the books are so confident
that their lines are so tight and they know they're
going to get so much volume, and they're gonna end
up having so many much little risk, because remember we're
all laying eleven to win ten, whether you're taking Houston,
whether you're taking New England, you're laying eleven to win ten.
And because of that, the books end up in a
good position. These lines aren't moving very much. So if
you like New England, the only thing you missed was
if you were able to get minus two and a
half early on, that was it. But otherwise you could
get three today. If you like Houston, then you can
still get three and a half today. That's the beauty
that the same numbers are still available to you.
Speaker 6: Same thing.
Speaker 4: With the total open forty one forty and a half,
we're still looking at forty one's forty.
Speaker 6: And a half.
Speaker 4: So again it all comes down to having the right side. Personally,
obviously I gave out on bed on them. I like
the over, I thought the over was a little short.
I thought there was a little bias towards the under
because of just how good defensively these two teams are
as compared to their offenses, like they're barely top fifteen offenses,
but both of them are our top ten defenses. In
the case of Houston, they're the number one defense. So
you're usually going to get some bias towards the total.
Speaker 2: And that's exactly what drafting like, sixty five percent of
actions coming in on the under.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's going to change again. The line
don't reflect that. That's why I'm.
Speaker 2: Doing a thing because also there's snow in the forecast
and it's cold that that's also a clear under indicator.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and not necessarily because those are costs, turnovers, turnovers,
turn in the points. You know, talked about that with defenses,
they don't necessarily, you know, turn into under, just like
two good offenses don't necessarily turn into an over because
you're gonna have an inflated line for the bias of
the over. And as if you're going with two good offenses,
obviously you don't want to shoot out.
Speaker 6: You want the other offense on the sideline as long as.
Speaker 4: Possible, so you know, game plans tend to change in
this one. What Houston and New England they aren't. They're
defensive teams, They're defensive minded teams. So I thought the
total was gonna come out a little short, and it did.
Speaker 6: And then with the.
Speaker 4: Bias of last week, New England not putting up points,
Houston not allowing much points, again, I thought there was
some value in the over.
Speaker 6: But I will tell you I did see Steam.
Speaker 4: Come in on the under in the first half, So yeah,
the under got hit. In fact, it was down the
nineteen and a half up until yesterday when you started
seeing some take back on the over. I'm sure there's
still some books that still have that nineteen and a
half out there. So we were looking at twenty and
a half, got down to nineteen and a half. So again,
and you got to remember, like, these aren't the same
groups betting all the same stuff. You know, one group
sees value in over forty and a half for the game,
another sees value in under twenty and a half for
the first half. Those are two completely different bets that
in both cash or you know, both lose. But I
see that all the time, and I even see that
from the same groups areal where they'll go under in
the first half over for the game.
Speaker 6: To them, they're just looking at their numbers. That's all.
Speaker 4: They're betting the game totals. You know, a little short
on the over, we're gonna bet over the first half.
Line's a little short on the under, We're gonna go under.
It's all about betting unders, I mean betting numbers. And
like I said, the under in the first half it
has gotten sharp action, but over for the game has also.
New England minus two and a half got sharp money.
Houston plus three and a half got sharp money. That's
just the truth. That's just me keeping it real for you,
because that is what's gonna happen for the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Honey.
Speaker 2: I actually thought that the Houston Texans were gonna be
more public because it's plus three and a half and
everyone loves to take it three and a half. The
Patriots are getting a lot of the love. The Patriots
and the Bears are the two teams that everyone publicly
just feels. Maybe everyone's down on CJ. Stroud because he
had a horrible, messy game last week and the defense
lifted them up, which I always say, Yannie, if you
have a great defense and a kind of iffy whatever offense,
you have a better shot at winning a Super Bowl
or any championship than you do with a great offense
and no defense.
Speaker 6: Very true, very very very true.
Speaker 2: So how much do you agree now going into the
night game six pm Eastern Time between the Rams and
the Bears, how much do you believe in the Rams?
Speaker 1: Since the public's on the Bears.
Speaker 4: I thought that the Rams were the second best team
in the NFL coming into the playoffs. I made Seattle
number one on my power ratings. I have the Rams
at number two in my power ratings. So I do
think the Rams are the second best team in the NFL.
In fact, I thought this line was a little bit short, at.
Speaker 6: Like that three and a half. I thought it was
too Yeah, I thought the Rams should be about a
four and a half point favorite.
Speaker 5: Believe it or not.
Speaker 6: I'm really low on Chicago, and I've gotten a lot of.
Speaker 1: Bally, We've all been low in Chicago.
Speaker 3: And the.
Speaker 1: Wrong.
Speaker 4: Exactly, I've taken a lot of heat on Bash in Chicago,
and I've been wrong. That's correct. You know, there's a
team that's twelve and six right now. More importantly, they're
twelve and five and one ats, so that he covered
almost seventy percent of their games. They've outperformed the betting
market seven out of ten times. That's as impressive as
it comes. So in Chicago just keeps proving me wrong.
You know, they're a team that's won seven out of ten. Now,
straight up, they covered eight of their last ten. What's
not to like and their home and their dogs. But
I can't overlook the numbers and the data, and the
data still tells me this. It tells me that I
have a Rams quarterback that's top five in passing success rate.
I have a Chicago quarterback that's bottom five in passing
success rate. I have a Rams teams that had the
number one strength of schedule. I have a Chicago team
that had the twenty first strength of schedule. I have
a RAMS team with that number one strength of schedule
that has the number one offense. I have a defense
in Chicago versus the twenty first strength of schedule that's
eighteenth in efficiency. That tells me the Rams should be
able to put up some points against Chicago. On the
flip side, the Rams weakness has been their defense. They're
not even in the top fifteen in efficiency. Chicago not
a top ten offen that's the problem. But they will
have a tough go of it this week because even
though the Rams are sixteenth, that's against the number one
strength of schedule. Now they're going up against an easier
opponent in Chicago. That's why I'm saying power rated wise,
I think the Rams on the neutral field should be
about a six six and a half point favorite over Chicago.
Give Chicago two points for home field advantage. Maybe slay
shaded a little bit more because the Rams, you know,
being more of a warmer weather team at least that's
the narrative in.
Speaker 2: The west to east West today is a tougher all
of that, all of that, but they just did it
last week, so I don't know if that helper hurts them.
Speaker 4: So let's give Chicago three points for home field advantage.
Let's go ahead and do that. So what do we
make the Rams. They still should be about that three
and a half point favorite. So I do think the
line is fair.
Speaker 5: I do.
Speaker 6: I don't think it's it's it's too high.
Speaker 4: Like I hear all the talk about, you know, Chicago
Chicago money line.
Speaker 6: I get it. I don't like it.
Speaker 1: I can't do it. I can't buy in. I totally.
Speaker 6: Here's what I will say.
Speaker 4: If you are betting Chicago today, you gotta bet him
on the money line. If you're betting Houston today, you
gotta bet him on the money line. In fact, any
dog that I bet, I'm betting money line. And my
subscribers know that when it comes to the playoffs, especially
when we get into the later rounds, you gotta put
some of your bet on the money line because the
spread just doesn't matter. I know last week we saw
it matter with the Rams, and on occasion it is
gonna matter. But you gotta trust history, and history tells
us eight out of ten times the spread's not going
to matter. In fact, next week championship, I think it's
closer to nine out of ten times.
Speaker 6: You just pick the winner. You're gonna cash a ticket.
Speaker 4: And that's the opposite of what we do in the
regular season where we say, you know, the spreads the
great equalizer, it's all about the number. In the playoffs,
that just isn't the case. Pick the winner, you're gonna
cash a ticket. So what does that mean? The favorite
usually wins convincingly, or the dog wins outright. So today,
what am I expect? I expect Houston to win the
game outright, or I expect New England to win by
double digits. I expect Chicago to win the game outright,
or I expect the Rams to win by double digits.
I don't think the spread's going to help you. I
don't think the TEASER's going to help you in either
of those games. I really don't think dom they're they're
that advantageous. I do think you should be doing some
moneyline action if you're touching any of these dogs today,
don't be afraid of it. And I do like that
my sharp sharp sharp out just went to juice over
forty one for Houston and New England.
Speaker 6: So that's a good sign for those of us that
have been It's one.
Speaker 2: Of Janny's favorite plays of the weekend. Any props that
these sharp groups are jumping in on.
Speaker 6: Today, Oh, I'm glad you asked that.
Speaker 1: I'm ready to right, I'm ready.
Speaker 4: Let's get because we definitely have proms. I'll give you
some premiums that I even had for subscribers. You ready,
These are three percent plays. I gave two of them
for my subscribers since I have a five percent and
the steam room's open, there'll be more in there. But
here's one for you, Woody Marx. Woody Marx long rush,
Woody Mark's longest rush under twelve and a half. We're
laying up the minus one forty so eb's probably up
to minus one fifties.
Speaker 6: So six out of ten times.
Speaker 4: We think Woody Mars goes under twelve and a half
as his longest rush. If that line's moved, look at
his overall rush yards that may not have been adjusted
as significantly.
Speaker 6: Always look at the rivatives.
Speaker 4: When it comes to props, there's creative ways to bet them.
So Woody Marks, we're not expecting the big game from
him longest rush under twelve and a half. Look the
rushing yards for the game also under and then expecting
a good game from Kien Williams. Rushing yards over went
over fifty nine and a half and over sixty and
a half rushing yards over for Kion Williams and Woody
Marks under. Those are two really good prompts. What else
do I have for you? That was the Cirent Blake
Korum Blake Korum longest rush over twelve and a half.
Blake Korum longest rush over twelve and a half. See,
I did see that, Woody Marks.
Speaker 6: Uh. They bet the under in rushing on for the
whole game as well.
Speaker 1: You know that's the most bet on prop of the weekend,
the under his rushing yards.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 6: Under m HM betting it wow. So they expect they
I don't like when I see that.
Speaker 2: But MGM tweeted it out like two days ago that
the most the prop getting the most action was Woody
Marks under rushing yards.
Speaker 6: Oh I like it.
Speaker 3: Then.
Speaker 6: Oh, that's a good sign. Two days ago, that's a
good sign.
Speaker 1: Yea few days ago, it wasn't today it was over.
Speaker 4: That means that that there were part money on that under.
Speaker 6: I could promise you there is.
Speaker 4: All that risk did not come from recreational accounts because
that that those recreational accounts. Remember they're posting up, and
nobody posting up has enough bank roll at least the
majority of those bank account Those accounts don't have enough
funds in there to bet NBA college basketball every night
and tie up NFL props for Sunday maybe Saturday, maybe,
but not that early on Sundays.
Speaker 6: Right, that's all sharp money. That's a good sign.
Speaker 4: When you see that, so I think they're just flooded
from sharp money, not public money on that one.
Speaker 1: All right, perfect Well, Woody Mark's under longest rush.
Speaker 2: I like that unique approach if you don't want to
bet on the side of what the books were saying,
everyone's on with Woody Marks under rushing, Kyraen Williams over
his rushing yards. I actually did like his under receiving
yards and Blake Korum over twelve and a half yards
for his longest rush. I love those unique markets, and
I love watching Yanni the Greek on.
Speaker 1: The steam room.
Speaker 2: It is great today noon Eastern time. What else are
you promoting today, Yannie? Yeah?
Speaker 4: I have my NFL package is all four sides and
totals to both games. So again I told you I'm
low volume this year, and it's been like that, thirty
bets in six days.
Speaker 6: That's five bets a day average.
Speaker 4: We're not betting heavy volume, but when the board gives
you value, you got to take it.
Speaker 6: So I have the siding total in both games.
Speaker 4: I have a five percent of you got the props already,
probably a few more maybe added. So be in the
steam room cause live bets come in. I'll go over
and be I'll go over college basketball as well. I'll
answer all your questions, will over year to date and
of course risk management. So Steamering goes live in about
thirty five minutes, and yeah, we'll go over all that
good stuff. Oh, National championships already up side in total
four tomorrow night player props will be added as they
get confirmed, So a lot of action over the next
twenty four hours.
Speaker 6: Best of luck to you, Ariel.
Speaker 1: That's the blog.
Speaker 2: Yanni ran the Yankees hat today, so I'm extra rooting
for you hard. We'll talk to you next week. We've
got Teddy Covers joining the show right now and just
throw everybody knows, by the way, my good friend and
when I'm on this show aka my boss Kelly in
Vegas just said that we are super closier at wager
Talk to two.
Speaker 1: Hundred forty thousand subscribers.
Speaker 2: So if you're not subscribing to the YouTube channel at
wager Talk, please do so because two hundred forty k
is massive for the wager Talk Bam. We appreciate you
all being here and Teddy Covers in it from the start.
Teddy Covers a huge part of why we've got almost
two forty k here on the YouTube channel, How was
your day yesterday?
Speaker 3: Teddy?
Speaker 5: So, my day yesterday was very simple.
Speaker 7: I've been running terrible in basketball all week and I
looked at the card yesterday.
Speaker 5: I had a really bad week.
Speaker 6: And who looked at the card me?
Speaker 1: This week? Was that basketball crushed me this week?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I My decision making was wrong. My short lists were okay.
The games I was picking out of the shortlist were
just wrong and I either wrong or finding a way
to lose at the end. And so I made my
shortlist for basketball yesterday.
Speaker 5: I looked at it.
Speaker 7: I'm looking at it. I'm going through the games and
I'm like, and I'm like, I just don't feel it.
I just don't feel like I'm so I passed. I
passed in basketball. I had one play in the NFL.
I had the over in Denver Buffalo.
Speaker 5: That was easy. It was right.
Speaker 7: It's good to be right and easy. So one play
and at one no complaints that a yesterday.
Speaker 1: I love to hear that. I love to hear that.
Speaker 2: And it's great because you and Kelly any on Monday
as you always look at everything really early here at
wager Talk and then you, I mean Obviously Monday you say, okay,
here's what the lines opened as. And then throughout the week,
I'm sure you start to see things shift. So what's
shifted since Monday that caught your eye for today?
Speaker 7: So I mean the whole point of the opening line report.
You know, again, Kelly and I do it every Monday morning.
We'll do it again tomorrow morning, right and early eight
am Pacific time at eleven Becky right here on wager
Talk TV. And what we're trying to do with that
show is recap everything that happened the day before, you know,
so we understand not just the final scores, but what
happened behind the final scores. Take a look at the
quotes from important relevant quotes from locker room, so we
get a sense of how teams are feeling. We talk about,
you know, my powering numbers for the teams when we
had look headlines and the regular season, talk to the
look head lines for these games, and of course talk
about where the lines opened and where they have moved
and where we expect them to move. That's the whole
point of the emergency betting alert concept is, Hey, if
you want this side bet, it's sooner rather than later,
So we do have that every Monday morning when we
look at the lines right now, what's happened this week, Well,
we've seen under money for the Rams in Chicago because
of the weather. We've seen a little bit of Chicago money,
but nothing dramatic was in play on Monday morning. For
New England Houston, we've seen a little bit of Patriots
money come in throughout the course of the week. That is,
I think everything to do with Nico Collins and the
status of Nico Collins more than any other factor for
the Texan So that's why we're seeing the threes and
a couple of three and a half's out there for
New England where it was two and a half three
on Monday. But compared to your average regular season week,
these lines haven't moved at all, you know. I mean
at this stage, the books know by mid January where
these lines in total should be. They know where the
wise guys are gonna bet, they know where the public
is going to bet it. This time of the year,
the line moves generally fairly limited, and we didn't see
much of that this week.
Speaker 2: For the first game between the Texans and the Pats,
this line's been hovering around three. There were some two
and a half's earlier in the week. Now you're seeing
some three and a half's as well. Total drop forty
one and a half to forty and a half.
Speaker 1: Yanni came on before said he felt the total was
too low.
Speaker 2: Where I know you probably have some stuff up that
you don't want to say, But what would you advise
to people?
Speaker 1: Whatever?
Speaker 2: You can tell the audience what's out there right now
for game one?
Speaker 7: Sure, so right now I have a one playoff for
today and it's in this game. Obviously I'm on the
side for the Pets and the Texans, and surely you
know from from which side you like standpoint. You know,
there's a case you can make. There's a pretty good
case you can make for both teams. There really is.
I mean, I've undervalue New England all year, I really have.
And it costs me money.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 7: I bet the Patriots under their season win total, you know,
way back in the summer.
Speaker 5: So that was wrong.
Speaker 7: And obviously, if you're bett against New England throughout the
course of the season, they've been not just a very
good straight up team, they've been a very good points
spread team. That said, from a defensive standpoint, Houston got
the better defense, and Houston, certainly when it comes to
recent playoff victories, Texas have won playoff games. You know,
this is a third straight year that c J. Stroud
is winning the playoff games, you know, and it's certainly
a team you don't want to sell short because of
their ability to create plays defensively. That being said, we
know how good it is, we know, and I guess
the real question for me maybe we find out today
how good Drake May is.
Speaker 1: You know, is for sure.
Speaker 7: Sure, if Drake May marches New England up and down
the field today, we're going to think a little bit
differently about him.
Speaker 5: Than we did before.
Speaker 1: Well, we know, whoever wins this game is probably going
to the super Bowl. So that's at least nice to know.
Speaker 5: Well, if you're a Patriots fan, it is, and if
you're a Texas fan it is.
Speaker 7: But that being said, you know, I mean they were
talking about this, Carshon Wentz got hurt for Philadelphia the
exact same spot. Some guy named Nick Foles, who's Nick Foles?
You know, coming get hot for a couple of games.
It's possible Jared'stidham.
Speaker 1: Is not Kelly's broncos she's gonna be miserable.
Speaker 7: Jaredda is not hopeless. That's all I'm gonna say. It's
not it's not there's no fricking you.
Speaker 1: Guys were going to say that it was too many
points like that.
Speaker 2: You guys will say that they are going to overreact
to the Jared Stidham news. Like I have a feeling
that that's going to be the narrative when the lines
come out.
Speaker 5: Did you see what Johnny just posted?
Speaker 7: No, he said, congratulations, We just this moment passed two
ordan forty thousand subscribers.
Speaker 1: I'm good.
Speaker 7: We we really appreciate it, guys, the likes, the comments,
the follows, it makes all the difference, makes my day.
It makes Ariel's day, you know. And two kids from Rockland,
what are you gonna do. You gotta make their day
every once in a while. But thank you guys. And
if you haven't subscribed, it's not too late. You can
be two hundred and forty thousand and one.
Speaker 3: Just a yeah.
Speaker 2: And I just told Kelly someone in the chat said
when you hit a quarter of a million that we
should do a nice little special for people. So I'm
sure that that's the case, there will be something Johnny Detroit.
I'm just saying now that you should do a little
special to promote people to subscribe to get to two
fifty k. That would be a ton of fun once
we hit that Seddy the Lake game tonight, we do
have the Chicago Bears and the Rams.
Speaker 1: This one everyone's waiting for.
Speaker 2: I love hearing from my friends that say I can't
wait for this game, Like I'm excited to see all
the games because obviously there's so many things from an
NFL perspective, like winning in the trenches in this three
PM game. The six thirty game, though, is the big
headliner for a reason. They have left that three and
a half up on.
Speaker 1: The Bears all week. Lome, how much do you believe?
Speaker 2: Because I believe that the Bears are frauds just as
much as you haven't had faith in the Pads.
Speaker 1: What about you?
Speaker 7: So the Bears are frauds, But the Bears are frauds
with a quarterback who has guided them to seven victories
this season when they trailed to the minute warning. So
they're frauds with confidence and that means something. They're frauds
that have found ways all season long to steal games.
They're frauds whose defense continues to create turnovers. And they're
frauds who live in the cold and don't have to
worry about Oh, how am I gonna acclimate after living
in LA for the last six years? Like a creaky,
injury riddled Matthew Stafford. You can make a case for
the Bears today. You can make a strong case for
the Bears today. This is one of those games. Again,
weather doesn't matter ninety eight percent of the time in
the NFL, but the two percent of the time that
it does matter, it can matter a lot. This is
gonna be miserable conditions. This is gonna be gut this
game out. Who's tougher? You know, Chicago's tough, They're mentally tough,
not that the Rams aren't. But I'm not looking at
the Bears as muscle in this game. You know, Oh
the Rams out it's easy for LA. Oh they're the
way better team the circumstances surrounding LA.
Speaker 5: In this contest.
Speaker 7: And look, LA was punched in the face last week
and they punched back. We like teams that are battle tested.
Speaker 5: LA.
Speaker 7: Certainly, you know, no shortage of hunger for the Rams,
you know, and the experience with the hunger is a
really powerful combination for LA that Chicago doesn't have that experience,
But laying more than a field goal in these conditions
with this quarterback and his track record in cold games,
I couldn't get there.
Speaker 5: I couldn't get there.
Speaker 7: So I mean, I understand if you do, there's a
case to be made for the Rams.
Speaker 5: I get it.
Speaker 7: But can anyone say they're going to be shocked if
the Bears are down fourteen to three going to the
fourth quarter and Caleb Williams puts together a rally and
rallies them back. I can't say you'd be shocked because
it's happened seven times already this year. You know more
than that, even look at the four I mean, there's
also the games you didn't win, like the forty nine
er game, where you know.
Speaker 5: Kayleb Williams is good.
Speaker 7: You know, the Bears offense is good, and the defense
has made plays all year, so it's not consistent. But
for all the frauds that the Bears are, they can
give the Rams a game.
Speaker 1: How much do you believe the NFC is the Super
Bowl champion?
Speaker 5: Not that much?
Speaker 7: No, No, I mean why so the Rams will be
favored over everyone, and Seattle is going to be favored
over anyone that's not the Rams, you know, so they'll
be Chock, but big Chalk. You know, it doesn't matter
which of the four, which of the three remaining AFC
teams get there. Obviously it's not Josh Allens. The NFC
team is likely to be favored, But does that mean
the AFC team can't win? Go look at the track
record of Chalk in the Super Bowl for the last
ten years. You don't want to be laying points in February.
You only want to be taking points.
Speaker 1: Hmm. I like that in sight, and I'm sure we'll
get more of that as the time going on. Teddy,
how much do you bet props in the playoffs?
Speaker 7: A lot more when the Super Bowl rolls around. But
it's not like we don't look at them now.
Speaker 2: Okay, no props, but Teddy Covers find them at Teddy
Underscore covers.
Speaker 1: What are you promoting today?
Speaker 5: We're talking NFL.
Speaker 7: Obviously, the NFL has been really good fourteen and seven
sixty seven percent over the last I think it's seven
weeks now, so single best bet for Patriots and Texans
and we're still perusing the NBA. Car I'm not playing
anything in college today. Was a chance that may well
post in the NBA over the course of the next
hour or so, So check my home page, WG dot, Buzz, Backslash, TC.
Speaker 2: Great stuff is always, Teddy, and catch them tomorrow with
Kelly and they will preview all of the lines right
when they come out, well a little bit after they
come out on Sundays.
Speaker 1: On Mondays, they look at it. Teddy. We'll see you
again next week and good luck this weekend.
Speaker 5: Thanks Ariel joining the.
Speaker 2: Show now lest and certainly not least, even though now
we both have our teams out of the playoffs, which
we kind of saw coming.
Speaker 1: Our head coaches are both gone. Margot di'angelo back.
Speaker 2: In action here on Wager Talk before we dive into
the weekend. Your head coach Meg Tomlin is now out
of Pittsburgh. They say today that they are still open
to potentially bringing back Aaron Rodgers. How are you feeling
about the state of the Steelers.
Speaker 3: This is what I thought would end up happening. I
thought that he would resign at the end of the year.
It's been a long year for coach Tomlin in the
way that it ended on Monday night, you could I
could just see it in his eyes. You know, he's
had enough. As far as Aaron Rodgers coming back, I
really thought that there was a good shot that he
would come back next year, given you know the way
they finished the season minus the last game. But I
don't know now, with the last game the way it
went and with coach Tomlin gone, I don't know that
Aaron Rodgers would come back. In stories of surface from
some locker room reporter leaked it out that Aaron Rodgers
was visibly upset when Tomlin told the team that he
was resigning, stepping down in He was quoted as say,
Aaron Rodgers gave him a hug and said, I'm sorry,
like Rogers put it on him.
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm glad.
Speaker 3: We'll see whatever.
Speaker 2: It was a long time coming that they at least
had a respectable quarterback in that room and a respectable
head coach for Aaron Rodgers. So very happy for the
both of them to at least have that. Let's step
into today because everyone just wants some winners. We've got
Game one, three pm Eastern time, Houston Texans on the
road at the New England Patriots line has fluctuated between
minus two and a half three three and a half.
We've gotten conflicting viewpoints from Yannie and from Teddy.
Speaker 1: How do you see this.
Speaker 2: Game playing out? And again the total two has dropped
by a point.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, when you look at a game like this, obviously
you know we've got two of the better defenses here.
And the narrative in this game is going to be
one of the narratives that's in the next game as well.
Because when we talk about New England and we talk
about Chicago, everybody's going to make the reference and they're
going to point out the schedule. Okay, and we that's
what we do. I mean, we have to handicap what
we have. And New England had a softer schedule. Why
did they have a softer schedule Because they had a
bad record last year, that's what you get. And the
same thing with Chicago. They had a very easy schedule
for most of the season, but they took care of business.
Now the second part, when we get to Chicago, we'll
talk about how they've won their games. But when we
look at New England, you've got a new head coach
in Mike Rabel and what he has done there and
the maturity of how much Drake May has gone from
his rookie season to year two. Remember last year, he
didn't start the season. He didn't become the quarterback till
later in the season last year. So this is a
guy that's just a little bit over a full year
of NFL games and he is getting better by the week,
and last week he's the reason they beat the Chargers. Now,
to me, I think when people look at the two
games last week, they look at Houston's win over Pittsburgh
and they look at New England's win over the Chargers.
I think the New England win looked more impressive to
the eye test because they shut down the Chargers from
the start. You know, the Chargers scored three three points.
You had a you know, a good quarterback and Justin
Herbert that couldn't get anything going. He was under durest
the entire game. But that offensive line for the Chargers
is horrible. We've seen it all year because of the injuries.
When he did have time to throw, Herbert was completing
passes and they were, you know, getting gains. But the
problem was he was getting sacked too many times or
having to run for his life or throw the ball away.
That's not gonna happen this week against the Texans. They've
got a good offensive line.
Speaker 4: C J.
Speaker 3: Stroud, you know, he's not really scrambling quarterback, but he's
definitely more elusive than Justin Herbert is. Now. The problem
with c J. Stroud is will we have three turnovers
like last week? But give that Houston credit defense wise,
they kept putting themselves in bad positions and they totally
shut down the Steelers and granted the Steelers offense. We
know the problems that they've had at different times during
the season, but Pittsburgh couldn't get anything going. I am
a big proponent of defense, and Houston has by far
the best defense. I grouped the defenses in the NFL
is one in one A and one is Houston. One
A is Seattle, and we saw what Seattle did last
night to the forty nine ers. I think Houston gets
the job done and they've got the game plan because
the only reason that New England had as much success
as they did was because of Drake May in his feet.
He extended drives with his feet because everybody was turning
their back and going in coverage that's not going to
happen this week. Houston saw the game film. They'll be
prepared for that. They'll leave a spy on him. He's
going to have to beat the Texans with his arm,
not with his feet this week, and I don't know
that he can do it against the defense of this caliber.
Houston's held nine of twelve of their last twelve opponents
to under one hundred yards rushing. If you can make
a team one dimensional, it's so much easier to defend.
And if you look at the full body of work
for the season, they've played eighteen games. They've held fifteen
of those eighteen opponents to one or fewer points. Give
me the points with the Texans.
Speaker 1: I love to hear it. That's what I have in
my pickam pool.
Speaker 2: And I thought my pick'm pool was over in the
regular season, and jokes on me. We go all the
way through the Super Bowl and the points just get higher.
So even though I finished number one in the regular season,
it meant nothing. So I need the Eastern Texans today.
I also need the Los Angeles Rams. And I don't
know if you're on the same side as me, but
I don't like the Bears. They have been frauds. They
screwed me out of the Packers last week, and I'm
just gonna go back to the well and say that
the Los Angeles Rams, even though the book deemed them
as ten and a half point favorites last week against Carolina,
going into this week being road favorites laying three and
a half.
Speaker 1: The narrative the Rams are a West Coast team, They're
used to the warm weather. They play indoors. It's gonna
be cold, it's gonna be snowy. How much are you
buying into this public narrative?
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, let's address the weather. Yes, that's
if I hear one more time that Stafford's one and
nine in the cold. You know that's great. But every
game is on its own merit. And do you remember
the game in the playoffs last year against Philadelphia? Yeah
it was it was cold in Philadelphia, and yeah they
lost the game.
Speaker 2: You're going to retire potentially, right if Matthew Stafford said
there's a chance he retires this year, then wouldn't you
not give two craps after an entire incredible career to
try and cap it off with a Super Bowl ring
to send you off into a potential Hall of Fame,
Like I don't care if it's nose, and I don't
care if it's cold.
Speaker 1: If I'm thinking of retiring.
Speaker 3: He played well last year in Philadelphia. They should have
They could have won that game, should have could have
they were in it against the Eagles last year in Philadelphia.
So I'm not gonna let that part bother me, you know,
because you know, you watch bet on It. You know
the year we've had involving the Chicago Bears, they have
been an absolute pain in my ass? Can I say
that because we've gone against them in different spots, We've
taken them in a couple of spots, and it seems
like it doesn't matter if I'm with or against them,
they find a way to beat me. I was on
green Bay big last week, and you know, again, give
Chicago credit, they found a way to come back and
win that game. But you know how much of that
comeback win was you know, green Bay with just absolute
idiotic clock management down the stretch with what they did
in that game. So again they get it done. But
I found a different way to play this game there
and this this is what I'm gonna do with it.
And because the Rams. And if we want to talk
about that narrative about the cold, when are you going
to be at your best in this game? If the
cold is going to be a factor for you, it's
gonna be in the first half. You got the adrenaline running,
You're coming out of the locker room. You're warm. He'd say, Oh,
I hope he's not telling us to take the dogs. Now,
come on, we're not taking We're not taking the dogs
there first game. Yes, he's agreeing with us, but we're
gonna take the Rams first half. And here's my narrative
for that. And I've got several reasons why we're gonna
look this way. You've you've got the Rams minus two
and a half first half one. You know that McVeigh
offensive minded coach. Okay, he has that script. All right.
They come out there generally their first drives are always impressive,
all right. They know what they're gonna do, and they
want the ball whenever. You know, if they win the
coin toss, they generally are gonna take the ball. So
we're gonna go ahead and lay the two and a
half with them. Whether you come out, you know, you
just come out of the locker room you're warm, You're
gonna start the game. Cold's not gonna affect you at
the beginning of the game as much as it would
affect you coming out of halftime after you've been out
there playing sweating. Old go in, fall out for fifteen minutes,
come back out. Okay, that's when your old body is teddy.
Just like to say, you know, an old Matthew Stafford
that's been on the West Coast, you know, with the
sand and the sun and the surf, might feel it
a little bit more. But here's the reality of it.
Last six games. This is the scores at halftime for
the Chicago Bears, And I'm going to go backwards from
last week twenty one to three. They were down to
Green Bay two weeks before that final game of the season,
down thirteen to nothing to the Lions, which by the way,
was the only cash I've had against the Fairs. I
had the Lions in that game San Francisco at San Francisco,
down twenty eight to twenty one at the half against
green Bay the second meeting of the regular season, down
six to nothing at half. The only game they were
winning at halftime in the last six games was Cleveland
playing them at a home they were up fourteen to nothing,
and then the week before that they played Green Bay.
At Green Bay they were down fourteen to three at
the half. Five out of six of their last games
they've been down at the half. Last two months of
the season. Average score for the Rams first half seveneen
to twelve in favor of the Rams, last two months
of the season, Chicago halftime score eight point seven to
twelve point one down. They're only averaging eight points per
game first half last two months of the season. That's
the narrative I'm gonna go with. I'm gonna take the
Rams first half and then whatever happens in the second
half can happen. But I do agree, I like the Rams.
If you ask me who I want for the full game,
it is the Rams. But I'm gonna attack it differently
and go with Rams first half.
Speaker 1: I like that play. I like it a lot.
Speaker 2: A lot of people have actually mentioned that to me
about not trusting the Bears in the second half in
regards to you know, having like laying points against them.
They always find a way in the second half to
make it close, so at least just go with the
first half.
Speaker 1: I like that approach.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's change the narrative on them, because me vr Kelly,
we all are calling them fraud. Yeah, maybe maybe we
might have to change the narrative and say, maybe there's
a team of destiny.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, the only destiny is them losing.
I hope. Let's give it up for Marco D'Angelo. Mark
in Vegas is where you can find them. What are
you promoting today, Well.
Speaker 3: I do have a play. I told you two plays
that I like in football today. One of them is
a four percent play over at wager talk. Last two years,
college and NFL combined, we're number two in money one
at wager talk. We've been altered consistent. College basketball is
off to a good start. We're hitting sixty three percent
for the season. I go very cautiously in the month
of December with college basket because my willhouse is conference play.
I love conference play, especially when we get into the
second meetings in some of these conferences. So jump on board.
We've got the deal at wager talk. It's the best
deal going right now. You can buy a seven day
package of your favorite capp or for the price of
a three day just sixty nine dollars. You get every
play every every sport, and that includes five percent plays
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plays sell for thirty five dollars by themselves, me personally
on a forty one and nineteen run over the last
two years with my five percent plays. So sure to
grab a seven day all access from your favorite cap
or at wager Talk.
Speaker 2: Marco di'angelo find him at Marco in Vegas. Thanks as
always for coming on the show and good luck.
Speaker 3: Today, No problem, thanks, Ariel.
Speaker 1: I've got a few props to mention.
Speaker 2: A lot of people are loving Christian Kirk because Nico
Collins is out and Christian Kirk has looked really good.
Speaker 1: For the Houston Texans last week.
Speaker 2: Right, well, you know actually has done the best on
the Houston Texans without Nico Collins Xavier Hutchinson. He's put
up in the two games without Nico Collins sixty nine
and eighty four receiving yards. His prop was twenty six
and a half earlier. This week, it's already up to
twenty eight and a half. So go and grab Xavier
Hutchinson and it's over receiving yards. Drake may I've been
betting the under on his completions the last couple of weeks,
and I'm going to go back to it. It was
twenty and a half last week we hit the under.
I'm gonna go back to under nineteen and a half
completions against team's top ten in completions allowed. Drake May
is averaging eighteen completions a game that drops to seventeen
at home. He's getting a Houston team allowing the seventh
least completions per game at eighteen. Sixty five percent of
quarterbacks have gone under their completion prop when facing the
Houston Texans, so Drake May under completions and the over
on Xavier Hutchinson. I don't want to bet the New
England running backs, to be honest. I know Ramandre Stevenson's
props have gone up and Trevion Henderson's have dropped. Houston's
allowing the fourth least rushing yards per game. I have
zero interest in this. I don't like choosing between backs,
and I don't like the matchup for the running backs either.
Hunter Henry has been great at home, but the Texans
have been really good against tight ends this season. Sixty
one percent of tight ends have gone under their prop.
But Hunter Henry at home, I cannot fade him, so
again I'll probably just stay away. Caleb Williams, the prop
I like the most done him was his past attempt
prop over thirty two and a half. He's actually averaging
thirty eight pass attempts a game win against team's bottom
ten and pass attempts allowed at home in prime time,
he's averaging thirty six pass attempts per game going over
in three of four. The Rams allowed the seventh most
pass attempts per game. If you're gonna win, or you're
gonna try to win, you got to attack the Rams secondary.
So I would take the over on the pass attempts
For Caleb Williams, I can't.
Speaker 1: Decide between the Bears. Webe receivers.
Speaker 2: It's a really good matchup for Rome Dunze and DJ Moore.
Problem is deciding between the two. I would go longest
reception over on one of them. I will say, looking
game by game, the number one deep threats have been
pretty limited. So maybe since I dun Say went over
last week and DJ Moore didn't, maybe they flip flop
and DJ Moore has a big catch this week. Sixteen
and a half is the prop he's averaging nineteen yards
for longest reception when he's up against teams bottom ten
in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Problem is at
home that only drops to twelve yards for longest reception.
Speaker 1: Rome Dunze has.
Speaker 2: Actually been the best one twenty eight receiving yards for
longest catch, and at home that number stays the same.
Speaker 1: But again it concerns me.
Speaker 2: He had a twenty seven yeard catch last week, his
first came back since number twenty eight. Why is this
number seventeen and a half and why is it not
twenty and a half twenty one and a half. So
it does scare me a little bit. Yanni gave out
earlier Kyron Williams over rushing yards fifty nine and a
half and sixteen.
Speaker 1: And a half. I like Kyen Williams under receiving yards.
Speaker 2: So I guess it could go hand in hand if
you feel like the Rams running back is not going
to involved in the passing game as he is in
the run game against team's top ten in receiving yards
allowed to running backs, Kyraen william is not. He's gone
over excuse me, he's gone under ten and a half.
Speaker 1: Oh, it's his longest catch. I think yeah's longest catch.
Oh it's a tough one.
Speaker 2: Chicago ten plays receiving yards per game to running backs
fifty nine percent one under.
Speaker 1: But the ones that I probably like the most.
Speaker 2: Are the Caleb Williams over pass attempt prop, the trick
may under completions prop, and the Xavier Hutchinson over receiving
yards prop. If you do want CJ. Stroud numbers without
Nico Collins, it's a ten game sample size. He actually
is averaging two hundred and twenty and a half passing
yards with him and two twenty eight without him, So
eight yards more completions don't change much. He averages like
one more pass attempt per game. So it's really the
passing yards. People are gonna think, oh no, no, Nico Collins.
That's bad for CJ. Stroud. It's actually even to produce
like he's actually doing a little bit better without Nico Collins.
So just something to keep in mind there when it
comes to c J. Stroudprops today for the Houston game.
Speaker 1: Game start three.
Speaker 2: Pm Eastern Time, then six thirty pm Eastern Time. We
are here every Sunday eleven am Eastern time. Good luck
to all of your bets. Thank you for everyone who
who has Sister. Thank you to everyone who has subscribed
to wager Talk. We have hit two hundred forty K
on the YouTube channel, which really means a lot to everybody.
Speaker 1: Here to fifty k, Kelly says, there will be a promotion.
So if you could get your friends and everybody to
subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube channel and get the
two hundred and fifty k, there'll be something for everybody.
Nice little prize. Again, good luck to all your bets.
Speaker 2: We will see you guys next week here on Sunday's
Last Call, the last one before the Super Bowl. Sunday
Last Call eleven am Eastern Time always, so we'll see
you next week