1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: NFL Week fourteen is upon us here on bet on It. 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,679 We're gonna get into those barking dogs, those TV games, 3 00:00:06,759 --> 00:00:09,800 that's right, Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night football. 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,359 The Deli. Marco's got some questions to answer about the 5 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:15,839 deli from the comment section, so we'll get to that 6 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:17,920 here in a minute. Of course, we're gonna get the 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,760 Steam report from VR as well as those best bets 8 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:39,799 up next on bet on It. Welcome in to bet 9 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,240 on It, Kelly Stewart here, Yanni the Greek, Marco DiAngelo, 10 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:44,280 the King of. 11 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:45,200 Speaker 2: The sub Sandwich. 12 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,039 Speaker 1: We'll get to the deli here in just a little bit, 13 00:00:47,039 --> 00:00:49,920 because first we got to talk about Thursday Night football. Marco, 14 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:51,840 we were talking about this one a little bit off air. 15 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,840 Dallas is a three point underdog at Detroit fifty three 16 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,359 and a half, and the ark kind of said, Detroit, 17 00:00:58,399 --> 00:01:00,000 if they play their best games, should kill this day 18 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,159 Cowboys team. And I said absolutely. But this Dallas Cowboys 19 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,400 team has been playing with a big time resurgence since 20 00:01:06,599 --> 00:01:10,159 that Las Vegas Raiders game, particularly on the backs of 21 00:01:10,159 --> 00:01:13,760 that defense. Total right now is fifty four and a half. 22 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:15,760 Make this one make a little bit of sense for me. 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 2: Well, Kelly, pure and simple. 24 00:01:19,239 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 3: Yes, the Cowboys are playing much better over the last 25 00:01:22,439 --> 00:01:26,439 month than they did most of the season. And full disclaimer, 26 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,200 if we pick against your team, it's nothing personal. Okay, 27 00:01:30,439 --> 00:01:33,599 I picked against the Steelers as much as anybody, But yes, 28 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:39,120 I'm talking to you, Chicago Bear fans. We're this game here, Detroit. 29 00:01:40,159 --> 00:01:43,319 This line should be higher, but the recency bias and 30 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,359 people know what they just saw, and what they just 31 00:01:46,439 --> 00:01:49,599 saw was both of these teams played on Thanksgiving Day. 32 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,879 One team lost, one team won. And I think it's 33 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:59,159 creating a ton of line value with Detroit. Dallas has 34 00:01:59,239 --> 00:02:02,519 beaten and back to back weeks. Give them credit last 35 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:06,079 year's two Super Bowl participants. They beat Philadelphia and they 36 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,960 beat Kansas City Philadelphia. Right now, they've got a problem 37 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,719 with the offense. Okay, they're not playing their best football. 38 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,000 It was just a month ago that we were penciling 39 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,719 them right into the Super Bowl. But that's how things 40 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,520 change in the NFL. On the other hand, Detroit, if 41 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,199 you look two weeks ago, people say, oh, they struggled 42 00:02:24,199 --> 00:02:26,319 against the Giants. They were lucky to come back and 43 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,120 tie that and win it in overtime. Yeah, they were, 44 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,159 but that was a horrible sandwich spot for Detroit. They 45 00:02:33,159 --> 00:02:36,120 were coming off the Sunday night game against Philadelphia and 46 00:02:36,159 --> 00:02:39,080 then they had green Bay on deck in four days. 47 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:42,759 On Thanksgiving Day, they went through the motions against the Giants, 48 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,719 but they found a way to win the green Bay. Yes, 49 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,039 they lost on Thanksgiving Day, but green Bay is a 50 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,120 good team. I know a lot of people don't like 51 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,240 Jordan Love, they don't want to give the team credit, 52 00:02:54,479 --> 00:02:59,159 but they've been consistent all year. So yeah, Detroit lost 53 00:02:59,159 --> 00:03:03,560 at home. In my opinion, they're taking a step down 54 00:03:03,879 --> 00:03:06,479 playing the Cowboys. And I don't mean that in a 55 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:11,879 bad way. I'm just comparing Dallas in green Bay. Those 56 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:16,039 two teams. On a neutral field, green Bay is going 57 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,599 to be favored, pure and simple, and yet we're getting 58 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,159 the same type of number this week with Detroit against Dallas. 59 00:03:23,319 --> 00:03:26,080 Give me Detroit. The value is there. We're all about 60 00:03:26,479 --> 00:03:30,759 trying to find value and present and make good bets. 61 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,039 This is a good bet. You want to look at 62 00:03:33,039 --> 00:03:36,840 a recncy trend last eight games. Look at what the 63 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,680 Lions have done. Win, lose, win, lose, win, lose. Guess 64 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,000 what this is the pattern for the win and as 65 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:48,080 good as Dallas looks right now, you still cannot argue 66 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,199 the fact that on the road they're two and four 67 00:03:51,319 --> 00:03:54,360 straight up on the road this year. Who were those 68 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:59,719 two wins? The Raiders in the Jets. I'll take Detroit minus. 69 00:03:59,439 --> 00:04:02,639 Speaker 4: Three, Green Bay minus three and a half first, Dallas 70 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:08,840 on a neutral Marco. Yeah, I've been generous. That's after 71 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,719 justin Dallas upwards. Yeah, it would have been for last week, 72 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:17,040 So ton of value on Detroit. Here in what this line. 73 00:04:16,759 --> 00:04:20,079 Speaker 1: Is Sunday Night football, Houston at Kansas City. Kansas City 74 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,160 is a three and a half point favorite total forty 75 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:28,519 two ish on the Odds logic screen. Right now, here's 76 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,839 kind of the reality. And I listen, I get stuck 77 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,480 with these games because I let the other guys choose 78 00:04:34,519 --> 00:04:37,439 their games first, you do. But I've been gutting against 79 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,199 Kansas City all season long. I took under eleven and 80 00:04:40,199 --> 00:04:42,959 a half wins. I took no playoffs, So I guess 81 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,720 I have to keep betting against Kansas City. And it 82 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,120 makes sense. The Chiefs have failed to cover now in 83 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:53,480 four straight games, three outright losses as a favorite, and 84 00:04:53,519 --> 00:04:55,839 on the flip side, Houston is doing exact opposite they 85 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:56,959 have won four straight. 86 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:57,879 Speaker 2: CJ. 87 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:02,519 Speaker 1: Stroud has returned, and even on that three week break, 88 00:05:03,319 --> 00:05:06,000 his good old buddy Davis Mills got it done for him. 89 00:05:06,319 --> 00:05:09,160 I think this Texas team is in good health. I 90 00:05:09,199 --> 00:05:12,399 think that they're establishing a nice connection with Nicocollins and 91 00:05:12,439 --> 00:05:16,199 getting this offense really going. Speaking of offense, Kansas City 92 00:05:16,639 --> 00:05:20,600 major issues on the offensive line. Josh Simmons, Joan Taylor, 93 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,160 Trey Smith all got hurt last week versus Dallas, and 94 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,480 as of Wednesday afternoon are all three doubtful to return 95 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,639 this week. So when you have those cluster injuries to 96 00:05:30,759 --> 00:05:33,240 start to compile late in the season, it is not 97 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,120 a good thing to be laying points with a team 98 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,319 that is beat up. Yes, obviously they saw Patrick Mahomes. 99 00:05:40,439 --> 00:05:41,319 Speaker 2: Yes he still. 100 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,199 Speaker 1: Has his security blanket named Travis Kelcey. But right now 101 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,920 I think Houston has not only the better roster, but 102 00:05:47,959 --> 00:05:50,720 the healthier roster. And VR has been talking about power 103 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:52,319 ratings a lot. I know you guys love it in 104 00:05:52,319 --> 00:05:55,639 the comment section. I know power ratings wise, the Chiefs 105 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,680 are still a top five team, but with those offensive 106 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:02,800 line injuries and against one of the best defensive lines 107 00:06:02,879 --> 00:06:05,920 in the league, I have no choice but to take 108 00:06:05,959 --> 00:06:08,759 the three and a half here with the Texans they are. 109 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,240 Talk to me about the Chiefs from a power rating perspective. 110 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,120 Have you been downgrading them over this last four weeks. 111 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:15,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have. 112 00:06:15,639 --> 00:06:19,639 Speaker 4: And they're still in the top five. Believe it or not. 113 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,600 It's just power rating wise because and here's why. They 114 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,800 have a top five defense. They still have a top 115 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,680 ten offense, they have a top fifteen strength of schedule, 116 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,360 and they're the Kansas City Chiefs. They still have a 117 00:06:32,399 --> 00:06:35,879 you know, a strong home field advantage. They are who 118 00:06:35,879 --> 00:06:38,439 they are. And again, this is just the numbers. That's 119 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,800 why you see the lines, Like you know, the odds makers, 120 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,480 they're just looking at their numbers. There's no bias neither. 121 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:46,639 I mean, you know, obviously some of us are fans 122 00:06:46,639 --> 00:06:49,480 of teams or whatever, but at the end of the day, 123 00:06:49,519 --> 00:06:51,839 it's just the numbers. And Kansas City maybe a six 124 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,839 and six football team, but power rating wise, yep, they're 125 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:59,399 still top five. They would still be favored over teams 126 00:06:59,519 --> 00:07:03,959 like San Francisco who's nine and four, Philadelphia eight and four, 127 00:07:04,399 --> 00:07:08,160 Denver ten and two, New England eleven and two. Those 128 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:11,240 are you know, football teams that would just be underdogs 129 00:07:11,279 --> 00:07:13,839 to them. And the reason like New England perfect example, 130 00:07:14,199 --> 00:07:17,519 they're barely top fifteen offense, they're barely top ten defense, 131 00:07:17,759 --> 00:07:19,720 and they had the easiest strength of schedule in all 132 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,720 the NFL. That's why they don't get that respect even 133 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,120 though they're an eleven and two football team. So it's 134 00:07:26,199 --> 00:07:28,879 just the data. It's just the numbers and case number 135 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,360 wise on paper doesn't mean on the field you're going 136 00:07:31,399 --> 00:07:33,680 to go out there and get it done. But on paper, 137 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,199 that's the bottom line that they're a top five power 138 00:07:37,319 --> 00:07:37,839 rated team. 139 00:07:38,639 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: All right, let's get into Monday night football. You grew 140 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,480 up in Philadelphia. They are a three point favorite at 141 00:07:45,519 --> 00:07:51,639 the LA Chargers forty one. Please help fellow Philadelphia and 142 00:07:51,759 --> 00:07:54,759 Dan Alexander out with this one, because I'm sure right 143 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,720 now he is an Eagles hell after that Bears upset 144 00:07:57,879 --> 00:07:58,800 on Black Friday. 145 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, here's the thing, if they played again, I think 146 00:08:02,079 --> 00:08:04,199 this is what a lot of recreational betters make the 147 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,040 mistake of not realizing that if they played that game 148 00:08:07,079 --> 00:08:10,040 the very next day, the Eagles would still be a 149 00:08:10,079 --> 00:08:13,560 big favorite over the Bears. Maybe not a seven point 150 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,199 juice favorite, but probably still around a six point favorite. 151 00:08:17,319 --> 00:08:22,680 That's the bottom line. There's a lot of randomness to 152 00:08:22,759 --> 00:08:25,399 the outcome of a sixty minute football game. You gotta 153 00:08:25,439 --> 00:08:28,439 remember that he can't put way too much stock in it. 154 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,240 Here's what we're seeing in this game. First of all, 155 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,240 sharp money coming in on the Eagles. The look ahead 156 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,320 was one and a half, got to two and a half. 157 00:08:36,759 --> 00:08:39,480 Now it's up to that key number of three on 158 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,320 the Chargers. The over under was forty four. Was the 159 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:46,200 look ahead down the forty one. So steam on the Eagles, 160 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,720 Steam on the under now obviously not surprising for the 161 00:08:49,799 --> 00:08:52,720 under steam because you're looking at two top ten defenses, 162 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:57,360 Eagles that come in at number five inefficiency, Chargers come 163 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,440 in at number ten in efficiency. What's more impressive Eagle 164 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,840 side is that's also against the top ten strength of schedule, 165 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,840 where the Chargers had a really easy strength of schedule. 166 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,759 The only team with an easier strength of schedule is 167 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,600 the New England Patriots. So that's why this Charger team 168 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:19,120 is a home dog to the Eagles, even though they 169 00:09:19,159 --> 00:09:22,639 have this exact same record sitting at eight and four. 170 00:09:23,039 --> 00:09:26,840 It's warranted. But where this line sits right now, I 171 00:09:26,919 --> 00:09:29,600 gotta look to the dog to the Chargers. And here's why. 172 00:09:29,799 --> 00:09:32,080 When I look at my power ratings I create, I'm 173 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,080 able to create a betting line. And here's the betting 174 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,360 line that I come up with. Philadelphia should be a 175 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,360 three and a half point favorite over the LA Chargers on. 176 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 2: A neutral field. This isn't a neutral field. 177 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 4: It's being played in LA. The Chargers' home field advantage 178 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,039 is almost two points one point nine something, So I 179 00:09:52,159 --> 00:09:54,639 take that two points off the three and a half 180 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,279 and that makes the Eagles a one and a half 181 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:01,960 point favorite. That's what it opened at. Since then, it's 182 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:06,320 been Eagle money that's forced the adjustment. I don't think 183 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,960 that's warranted, especially with a team where the wills seem 184 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:14,360 to be falling off. You lose to rival Dallas first 185 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,720 of all, where you had a huge lead. Then Thanksgiving 186 00:10:19,399 --> 00:10:23,120 at home touchdown favorites, you lose to Chicago. I know 187 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:24,519 you're supposed to go on the road and beat a 188 00:10:24,639 --> 00:10:27,360 Charger team that you're better than, especially since who's going 189 00:10:27,399 --> 00:10:32,120 to respect the Chargers? Who do they beat the Raiders Pittsburgh, Tennessee. 190 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,519 You can only play who's in front of you. That's 191 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,759 the bottom line, And at three points, I got to 192 00:10:36,799 --> 00:10:39,519 take the Chargers at home, especially, Like I said, I 193 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,720 like the splits with them. They've won over seventy percent 194 00:10:42,759 --> 00:10:45,480 of their home games. Take the three points with the Chargers. 195 00:10:45,519 --> 00:10:47,360 I haven't gotten to the window with this gat. I 196 00:10:47,399 --> 00:10:48,879 don't know if I'll get to the window with this 197 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,039 gap again. The primetime games, I've done really well eighteen 198 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,159 and eight over the last twenty six Sunday Night Football 199 00:10:55,159 --> 00:10:57,679 and Monday Night Football bets. So I don't want to 200 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,320 commit to the Chargers. If this game was going on 201 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,039 like now, it would be Chargers or Pass for me. 202 00:11:04,879 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 1: I just wish every once in a while I can 203 00:11:07,159 --> 00:11:08,679 give you guys a little sneak peak of what I 204 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,559 see behind the camera scene and Dan and just sitting 205 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:16,440 there in absolute utter hell wanting to chime in. I'm 206 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:17,759 not gonna do that to him, though I do that 207 00:11:17,799 --> 00:11:19,639 on another shows where it is bring people in and 208 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:21,720 then I'm not gonna do that to him. You guys 209 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:23,519 can catch him over on wager Talk Today if you 210 00:11:23,519 --> 00:11:26,639 want to hear about his opinions on that one. Speaking 211 00:11:26,639 --> 00:11:29,639 of wager Talk Today, you're there, yeah, four or five 212 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:31,960 days a week. Generally you give out a ton of 213 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,600 steam stuff. You also give out your steam for me 214 00:11:35,879 --> 00:11:38,879 on College Table Saturdays, on Last Call NFL Sundays with 215 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,879 Ariel Epstein, you do a steam sheet now and then 216 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:47,159 you also do a steam room Sundays for premium subscribers, 217 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,759 kind of give us a little preview for NFL Week 218 00:11:49,799 --> 00:11:51,799 fourteen into what that looks like for this week. 219 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,759 Speaker 4: Yeah, and that steam sheet has been the saving grace 220 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,039 for me as far as being able to help my 221 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,519 subscribers actually turn up when I'm able to do so. 222 00:12:02,039 --> 00:12:04,320 And I've been able to really cut down the volume, 223 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,879 which is why I've been able to be at number 224 00:12:06,879 --> 00:12:09,919 one last seven days, last thirty days, Because before with 225 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,840 so much volume, it's really hard. You're not going to 226 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:16,120 hit sixty five percent when you're vetting fifty games. But 227 00:12:16,519 --> 00:12:18,919 now I'm able to share that information on the Steamshet. 228 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,120 Every single day, I put out all the stuff that 229 00:12:22,159 --> 00:12:26,279 comes across from the sharp groups I move for, or 230 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,720 guys that move for other groups that share their information, 231 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,519 So I share that immediately with anyone that's got the Steamshet, 232 00:12:32,759 --> 00:12:34,759 so they're able to then look at the play and 233 00:12:34,799 --> 00:12:37,240 decide for themselves do they agree, they disagree, do they 234 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,480 want to piggyback it? Exactly what I do with the 235 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,600 information that comes across my desk, So I'm putting them 236 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:47,320 in my position. For those guys that handicap their own stuff, 237 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,600 have their own opinion. Speaking of the steam room, that's 238 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,919 every Sunday. We'll change it up once NFL is over 239 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,159 because college basketball Saturday will be big for us. But 240 00:12:57,519 --> 00:13:00,759 final hour we go over as many NFL games as possible. 241 00:13:00,879 --> 00:13:03,919 Always cover at least all the early games, signed total 242 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:08,120 player props plus EV teasers, answer all your questions, and 243 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:12,159 more importantly, discuss risk management, which is most important. Now, 244 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,080 somebody steam four this week in the NFL. I'm just 245 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,279 going to read what was in the steam sheet from Monday. 246 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,919 Atlanta plus eight and plus seven and a half, Tampa 247 00:13:22,159 --> 00:13:25,799 one thirty six, Tampa minus eight, minus eight and a half, 248 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:31,559 one thirty one, Indianapolis Jacksonville under forty eight one forty six. 249 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:35,480 That's the Monday night game Philly and the LA Chargers 250 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,399 under forty two and forty one and a half. 251 00:13:38,639 --> 00:13:41,639 Speaker 2: Not all that much movement so far. 252 00:13:42,039 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 4: Also, the Green Bay line look ahead with six and 253 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,720 a half dump down the five and a half. Obviously, 254 00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:49,679 Chicago looked really good beating the Eagles. But that's when 255 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,480 immediately Steam came in on the Green Bay Packers, which 256 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,679 we'll talk about a little bit later, and also under 257 00:13:56,039 --> 00:13:58,519 forty five in that game. So that's some of the 258 00:13:58,639 --> 00:14:01,919 hit games that got hit early in the week. But 259 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,279 again between now and Sunday, a lot of information. I'll 260 00:14:04,279 --> 00:14:07,960 be on Last Call as well on Sunday morning, absolutely. 261 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 1: Last Call with Aeron Epstein eleven am Eastern, eight am Pacific. 262 00:14:11,799 --> 00:14:15,840 You guys will go over the entire NFL card with 263 00:14:16,799 --> 00:14:18,919 VR as well as John Murray and I got a 264 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:20,799 double check who else is on Sunday this week. I 265 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,600 think it's Jesse Schule, But next week I've already got 266 00:14:23,639 --> 00:14:26,240 Marco D'Angelo pencil. Then I already said Marco, I need 267 00:14:26,559 --> 00:14:28,960 an early commitment from you because it is a national 268 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,559 signing day in college football and he's going to be 269 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:37,080 there following week with Aeron Epstein, let's get into those 270 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,919 barking dogs, guys. We got some big ones this week 271 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,480 for what it's worth, and Marco, before we get into it, 272 00:14:43,519 --> 00:14:46,200 can you let me know what's going on over at 273 00:14:46,279 --> 00:14:48,080 wager talk dot com as a whole. 274 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, A lot of stuff going on right now. 275 00:14:51,399 --> 00:14:53,879 We've got an early Bird Bowl special. We've got the 276 00:14:53,879 --> 00:14:57,519 Weekend Warrior that has been one of our most popular packages. 277 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:02,519 Forty nine dollars get Saturday Sunday college in NFL football, 278 00:15:02,759 --> 00:15:05,799 and if your capper you choose has a Monday night 279 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,279 football game, you get that as well. Me personally, Kelly, 280 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,360 I got a special going this week. You've got to 281 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,080 check it out. We have been on a tear with 282 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,799 our plays. It's been a great run our five percent plays, 283 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,639 which by the way, we are going to have another 284 00:15:19,679 --> 00:15:23,320 five percent play this weekend. Those plays going back to 285 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:28,360 February of twenty twenty four, we are forty and sixteen 286 00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:31,799 with those five percent plays our college football plays for 287 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,559 the season. When I've released a four or five percent 288 00:15:34,639 --> 00:15:38,919 play twenty one in six for the season, you can 289 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,759 join me for this package. You can get it for 290 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,320 just one hundred and thirty nine dollars fourteen days. That's 291 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:53,960 not just football, that's all plays, college basketball, NBA hockey. 292 00:15:54,279 --> 00:15:56,360 You can get it all for fourteen days for one 293 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,960 hundred and thirty nine dollars. If you bought two weeks individually, 294 00:16:00,039 --> 00:16:02,679 you would spend one hundred and ninety eight. We are 295 00:16:02,919 --> 00:16:08,200 currently plus fifty five hundred dollars in the last thirty 296 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,919 four days with a fifty three and thirty three overall record. 297 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,639 That's what's going on at wager Talk this week. Kelly 298 00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:16,440 love it, Marco. 299 00:16:16,559 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: Let's get into your barking dog, and I'm gonna make 300 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,600 you go first because you got the smallest one. Talk 301 00:16:21,639 --> 00:16:26,840 to me about Hey, talk to me about why you 302 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,120 like Atlanta catching a touchdown here. 303 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,559 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, if I'm the smallest with a seven point dog, 304 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:39,600 I'll take the seven there. Okay, this play is as 305 00:16:39,759 --> 00:16:43,279 much a play about going against Seattle than it is 306 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:48,159 taking Atlanta. Let's be honest, Taking Seattle looks way too easy. Okay, 307 00:16:48,279 --> 00:16:50,639 they're nine and three, They're coming off a twenty six 308 00:16:50,759 --> 00:16:53,840 nothing blowout win. But if you look at the stats, 309 00:16:53,919 --> 00:16:57,639 they really did nothing offensively in that game. They only 310 00:16:57,679 --> 00:17:01,080 had two hundred and nineteen yards of offense. How they 311 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,480 won that game last week? That defense, that defense is 312 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,960 one of the elite defenses in the NFL. This season, 313 00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:13,440 they had Minnesota turned the football over five times in 314 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:17,559 one of the most ugliest performances I've ever seen out 315 00:17:17,559 --> 00:17:22,599 of an NFL team. Offensively, it was horrible. Sam Darnold, 316 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:24,920 you thought he might have had a really big game 317 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,480 last week. He was going against Minnesota, the team that 318 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,799 he took to the playoffs last year. Had the team 319 00:17:32,319 --> 00:17:35,599 have their best season in several seasons. But because he 320 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,119 lost the last regular season game and he lost the 321 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,640 first playoff game, Minnesota moved on from him. So that 322 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,759 was a big revenge game for him last week. 323 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:45,759 Speaker 2: You know, what do he do? 324 00:17:46,079 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 3: Ninety four net passing yards on a fourteen of twenty 325 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:54,880 six passing day. I look for Seattle to be flat 326 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,440 this week. This is their third road game in four weeks. 327 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:04,680 Two trips from the you know, the Northwest to East 328 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,759 coast coming in three weeks. That's a lot of travel 329 00:18:08,839 --> 00:18:11,799 for a team, and coming off that satisfying win in 330 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,759 a couple of those games. Before this stretch, they had 331 00:18:14,759 --> 00:18:17,480 some big division games. So I think you look at 332 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,960 the schedule, this is a place to really easily look 333 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:21,839 against your opponent. 334 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 2: Why not? Atlanta just lost to the Jets last week. 335 00:18:25,319 --> 00:18:28,119 The Jets Kirk Cousins. 336 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 3: He didn't do enough to win the game last week, 337 00:18:30,799 --> 00:18:32,799 but he did look a lot better than he did 338 00:18:32,839 --> 00:18:36,440 in this first start. More as he gets more reps 339 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,240 and more games under his belt, he's going to continue 340 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,000 to get better. Couple that with this being the major 341 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:46,559 flat flat spot on the schedule makes Atlanta, in my opinion, 342 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:52,200 a very live dog here. Seattle the other concern. If 343 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,359 you've been watching the league games the last few weeks, 344 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,400 even though they're finding ways to win games, they're turning 345 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,440 the football over more than they have all year. They 346 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,559 had three turnovers against Arizona, four turnovers against the Rams, 347 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,359 and two last week against Minnesota. The only clean game 348 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:12,480 they've had in the last four was against the hapless 349 00:19:12,519 --> 00:19:15,720 Tennessee Titans, and they still only won that game by 350 00:19:15,759 --> 00:19:18,559 six points. Atlanta takes it to the wire, Kelly, give 351 00:19:18,599 --> 00:19:21,559 me the seven points and put a little sprinkle on 352 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:22,359 there as well. 353 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,079 Speaker 2: H Marco Seattle. 354 00:19:25,279 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: I wanted to use them last week and Brett made 355 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,119 me use the Dolphins said, oh, we can use Seattle later. 356 00:19:31,319 --> 00:19:34,319 I us in Seattle this week. That is for sure 357 00:19:34,839 --> 00:19:37,240 another team that I'm a little nervous about using this week. 358 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,400 VR You like the other side, the Arizona Cardinals catching 359 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:42,119 eight and a half. 360 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,279 Speaker 4: Yeah, this isn't by accident on Shave. This is me 361 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,480 working hard for the subscribers, just crushing it for them. 362 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,640 That's why that's why off this early in the morning, 363 00:19:51,839 --> 00:19:55,400 and I just it's almost like a service announcement. I 364 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,240 want to help them make money. I told them going 365 00:19:57,279 --> 00:20:00,599 into the Thanksgiving break that I was going to it's 366 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,880 that time of the year where there's just so much 367 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,160 extra value. The market conditions changed and what happened finished 368 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,960 number one over those days, while over the next six 369 00:20:09,039 --> 00:20:12,519 weeks is another big money making opportunity with all the 370 00:20:12,559 --> 00:20:16,920 college football and NFL closing out the season, so this 371 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,720 is a good time to jump on board now. NFL 372 00:20:20,279 --> 00:20:22,559 coming into this show twenty three to fifteen and one, 373 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,480 right around that sixty percent mark, not bad for a show. 374 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,960 Overall college football and NFL fifty five twenty five and one, 375 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,960 it's about sixty nine percent. So we've been making money 376 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,599 for you on bed on It, and we're going to 377 00:20:34,599 --> 00:20:38,039 continue doing that. Start off this week on the Live Dog. 378 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,480 Arizona Cardinals. Don't look now, but Jacoby Brissette has been 379 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,039 playing some really good football. In fact, he's had a 380 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:49,720 ninety two or higher QBR in five of his last 381 00:20:49,759 --> 00:20:53,559 six starts, with three of those over one hundred QBR. 382 00:20:54,799 --> 00:20:57,880 So even though they haven't, you know, won all those 383 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,240 games he's he's played well. I like that number two. 384 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,200 I like the fact that the Rams are coming off 385 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:08,160 a really heartbreaking loss against Carolina in a game they 386 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,240 were double digit favorites. And guess who's on board next? 387 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,880 Uh oh, the Detroit Lions that you get ad home. 388 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,960 So now Rams now have their second back to back 389 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,839 road games. Granted this is a divisional opponent, but there's 390 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,279 bigger fish in the Detroit Lions on deck next. Not 391 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,319 too much to get excited about on a three to 392 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,240 nine Arizona team. And here's what we're looking at with 393 00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:32,240 the Rams. There's the number one power rated team in 394 00:21:32,279 --> 00:21:37,400 all the NFL. They're number six in offensive efficiency, top 395 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,960 three defensive efficiency, and they have a top fifteen strength 396 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:48,359 of schedule, so very respectable. Flip side, Arizona barely top 397 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:52,240 twenty offense, barely top twenty defense, but they've had a 398 00:21:52,319 --> 00:21:54,680 top ten strength of schedule all right, so they had 399 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,720 a very difficult strength of schedule. Power rating wise, LA 400 00:21:58,799 --> 00:22:02,279 should be an eight point favorite on a neutral field 401 00:22:02,759 --> 00:22:06,680 right now. Home field advantage for Arizona is about one 402 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,119 point seven to five this year, I coupled with the 403 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,160 last two or three years, So do the math there 404 00:22:14,559 --> 00:22:16,920 makes the rams about a six to six point two 405 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,920 to five favorites based on my power ratings. Now dig 406 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,519 a little deeper and what you'll find is Arizona. When 407 00:22:23,559 --> 00:22:26,400 they lose at home, they don't lose by margin. That's 408 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,680 the one place with Arizona that they're going to give 409 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,880 you effort. Even those games that they've lost, they have 410 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,319 not lost by more than a score. Jacksonville only beat 411 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,880 them by a field goal. Except for San Francisco, green 412 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,839 Bay only beat them by four, Tennessee by one, Seattle 413 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,960 by three. So they play hard at home. They give 414 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,000 you that effort. That's what you want from a live dog. Again, 415 00:22:47,319 --> 00:22:51,480 we're getting what eight nine points eight and a half 416 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,000 nine's are out there when it should be six and 417 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,359 a half. I would have took it at seven when 418 00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,640 it should be six point two five forgimme. Because seven 419 00:22:59,759 --> 00:23:01,400 is such a key number. It would have been a 420 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,640 small bet. But once you get over that eight, it 421 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,039 makes it a bigger bet. I may I released a 422 00:23:07,079 --> 00:23:09,960 premium to my subscribers four percent play, which means one 423 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:13,759 percent a bank roll. I would personally bet about maybe 424 00:23:13,799 --> 00:23:16,680 fine to seven to ten percent at the most at 425 00:23:16,799 --> 00:23:20,079 plus three three point thirty on the money line as well, 426 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,960 because I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams overlook them 427 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,440 and end up slipping. Oh. 428 00:23:27,599 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: Back to back losses for the Rams is gonna be interesting, 429 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,440 and hopefully this dog doesn't win out right and it's 430 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,440 just back to back close losses, because I do think 431 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,720 i'd have to take Tampa Bay in Survivor this week. 432 00:23:39,759 --> 00:23:41,799 Speaker 2: I was just looking on my splash. 433 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,839 Speaker 1: Account and I'm like, I don't think I have another 434 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,319 choice unless I want to take the Cleveland Brown. 435 00:23:46,559 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 2: So I think I am gonna go with Tampa Bay. 436 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 1: But I do like New Orleans plus the eight and 437 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,039 a half year, and I do think it's gonna be 438 00:23:53,079 --> 00:23:55,839 a lot closer game. I know Tampa's won six of 439 00:23:55,839 --> 00:23:58,880 the last seven meetings, including just a few short weeks 440 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,119 ago in October, where I probably should have used the 441 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,000 Bucks because they won twenty three to three, and it 442 00:24:05,039 --> 00:24:07,880 was interesting then because they were running a two quarterback set. 443 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:12,039 So now the Bucks can be prepared for either quarterback. 444 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,920 Here's my problem, though. The Bucks have failed to cover 445 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,839 the spread in the last four games, and New Orleans 446 00:24:19,839 --> 00:24:22,240 is the only team the Bucks have covered against the 447 00:24:22,279 --> 00:24:25,200 spread since mid October. I think this line is just 448 00:24:25,279 --> 00:24:28,240 a little bit high, and that's probably because they're bagging 449 00:24:28,279 --> 00:24:31,519 for Tampa Bay teaser money. But this is the most 450 00:24:31,559 --> 00:24:34,559 points the Bucks have been asked to lay all season. 451 00:24:35,039 --> 00:24:38,359 The way they've been playing recently and struggling like they 452 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,960 did last week against Arizona, I think it is going 453 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,119 to be Saints or pass for me. I know last 454 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,759 week the Saints should never have really been in that game, right, 455 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,400 Dolphins went down opening possession, scored, had a comfortable lead, 456 00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:54,680 and then they decided to proceed to give me a 457 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,599 heart attack for the last two minutes of the game. 458 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,960 That's exactly what's going to happen this week too. So 459 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:00,799 take the eight and a half point it's here with 460 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,599 the Saints and hoped the Bucks actually can win the 461 00:25:03,599 --> 00:25:07,200 game outright for me and my survivor, Marco. I said 462 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,920 that you have to answer to the comment section for 463 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,920 the Delhi this week, and that's because even though you 464 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,359 are thirty eight and twenty six on the season, people 465 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:17,440 are pissed. 466 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 3: Wow, I gave some bad turkey sandwiches, you know, and 467 00:25:22,599 --> 00:25:24,000 we went one and four last week. 468 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:24,559 Speaker 2: I've told you. 469 00:25:24,559 --> 00:25:27,799 Speaker 3: Every week how good we've done with the deli, and 470 00:25:27,839 --> 00:25:29,480 I'll tell you when we you know, win, I'm going 471 00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:31,119 to tell you when we lose. We had a bad week, 472 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,759 but as you said, Deli eight winning weeks, four losing weeks, 473 00:25:34,799 --> 00:25:37,559 one break even week. We're still thirty eight and twenty 474 00:25:37,599 --> 00:25:40,240 six for the season with those Deli games. 475 00:25:40,559 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 2: And shout out. 476 00:25:42,519 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 3: We've added a new sandwich to the deli menu. I 477 00:25:46,319 --> 00:25:49,400 just want to let you know, my good friends from Chicago. No, 478 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,759 we've put a Chicago dog on the menu. So you 479 00:25:52,799 --> 00:25:55,079 go check out, you know, the deli, see if we can, 480 00:25:55,279 --> 00:25:57,680 you know, have a sandwich come in and you know 481 00:25:58,319 --> 00:26:01,880 mentioned the dullbars, the addition you like on your Chicago dog. 482 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,519 Speaker 1: Let's let's get let's get into the comments section here, 483 00:26:04,759 --> 00:26:07,240 tell me what your ideal Chicago dog looks like. 484 00:26:08,319 --> 00:26:13,640 Speaker 3: All right, Kelly, now you're gonna let me piss off 485 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,480 the entire city of Chicago again because I don't like 486 00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:23,200 the relish that that goes on the Chicago Dog. And okay, 487 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,880 I know this is sacrilegious to true hot dog connoisseurs. One, 488 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,680 it's got to be a Vienna hot dog. It's got 489 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,319 to be the top of the line. That's what they 490 00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:35,559 make the Chicago dogs out of you know, the authentic places. 491 00:26:35,839 --> 00:26:37,680 But I'm gonna kill it. I'm gonna put ketch up 492 00:26:37,759 --> 00:26:38,440 on my hot dog. 493 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, up on your hot dog. 494 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 5: You put mustard on there too, but you absolutely put 495 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,480 ketchup on their Chicago I get ridiculed. 496 00:26:44,759 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 3: You don't, Chicago. You just set the comment section on fire. 497 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,000 You're gonna see how many people mustard onion. 498 00:26:52,559 --> 00:26:54,079 Speaker 4: Relish give me all that. 499 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,319 Speaker 1: I would even just just just put all all of it. 500 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,559 Speaker 2: I want it all. That's what a Chicago dog is 501 00:26:59,559 --> 00:26:59,759 to me. 502 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,640 Speaker 3: Okay, well I don't like the relish, I will substitute 503 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,160 relish and I'll put sauerkraud on. 504 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,880 Speaker 2: I do like seller sauerkraut. I'll do that. 505 00:27:09,519 --> 00:27:12,519 Speaker 1: Make the Polish, the Polish and German viewers happy. 506 00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:17,079 Speaker 5: Everybody else is gonna say, yeah, I know, we shout 507 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,240 out to the Chicago fans, though, really I I want 508 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:20,920 you guys. 509 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,759 Speaker 3: You know, I enjoyed spending the entire Thanksgiving week and 510 00:27:25,279 --> 00:27:30,079 reading all the fascists that you guys had, you know, 511 00:27:30,759 --> 00:27:31,400 and mark to do. 512 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,880 Speaker 1: I said, you guys, there is a button on as 513 00:27:35,039 --> 00:27:38,279 mute conversation, and then you just let these people yell 514 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,480 into the void of themselves. 515 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,519 Speaker 2: We touched a nerve last week. 516 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,559 Speaker 3: I mean, I you know, I, Keelly, you've you've had 517 00:27:46,599 --> 00:27:48,519 some you know, fan bases coming at you. 518 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 2: I have never doing this. 519 00:27:51,039 --> 00:27:55,759 Speaker 3: For four I had people come at us the way 520 00:27:55,799 --> 00:27:59,720 they did NonStop from the minute that game ended on 521 00:27:59,799 --> 00:28:04,279 for of Chicago and Philly to Saturday to Sunday. 522 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,319 Speaker 2: Nobody's talking about it. How about Carolina? You guys remember 523 00:28:07,519 --> 00:28:11,599 you know Carolina? That was a winner. No all they 524 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,079 talked about VR with Texas. 525 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 3: He talked to you guys all about Texas all week 526 00:28:17,559 --> 00:28:19,079 on the shows. 527 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 2: Nothing, no, no, thank you. Just we sucked because we 528 00:28:22,799 --> 00:28:24,480 thought Chicago was overrated. 529 00:28:24,759 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 3: What are you gonna do? It's a fun business, Kelly. 530 00:28:27,559 --> 00:28:29,599 You you know it all too well. 531 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 2: So listen. 532 00:28:31,039 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: I'm here for it. The love, the hate, the Ventral 533 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,799 put it in the comments section because I just don't 534 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,319 understand it makes me more money on YouTube. 535 00:28:41,799 --> 00:28:45,079 Speaker 4: I don't get it, Like these are grown men, like ah, 536 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,519 Like it just confuses the shit out of me. 537 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:49,759 Speaker 2: It really does. 538 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,720 Speaker 4: Like it's a regular season game. Bro, you took time 539 00:28:52,759 --> 00:28:54,799 out of your day to actually write that to me, 540 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,839 Like how how like what is happening? In your world 541 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,200 that you actually needed to do that about. 542 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 2: Company in their world. 543 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,079 Speaker 1: This this is the only bright spot is there. The 544 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:07,279 Chicago Bears are. 545 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 4: That's why they still dress their stupid kids up like 546 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,039 Jim McMahon for Halloween with that dumb sweat band like 547 00:29:13,079 --> 00:29:13,640 it's cool. 548 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,519 Speaker 2: Hey, did it suddenly get hot in here? 549 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 3: No? 550 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 2: Excuse me, no, it's I don't know all of the 551 00:29:21,759 --> 00:29:26,440 all of the talk degrees this week in Florida, I'm freezing. 552 00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:37,319 Speaker 6: No, no, no, it's no, no, no, it's hot. 553 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 2: The best team in football. I love you, Chicago. I'm sorry. 554 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,119 All right, the show has gone completely off the rails. 555 00:29:48,319 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 1: All the commenters that have said what a great job 556 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,440 I've done keeping us within parameters on a tight schedule 557 00:29:53,759 --> 00:29:54,759 has just been. 558 00:29:54,599 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 2: Completely wiped away. 559 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: Marco wants to do his Deli segment in a Chicago 560 00:29:59,759 --> 00:30:00,319 Bears shirt. 561 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,039 Speaker 2: All right, guys, and this is going to be an 562 00:30:04,119 --> 00:30:06,799 ugly one. Okay, but that's what we do. 563 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:11,559 Speaker 3: We find ugly games that you've got to trust the process. 564 00:30:12,119 --> 00:30:14,759 It worked with us last week. You know, Washington, we 565 00:30:14,839 --> 00:30:17,480 told you about two teams going into the by coming 566 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,759 out of the buy together. One was on a roll. 567 00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:22,839 One wasn't. We went with a team that wasn't. It's 568 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:23,920 a momentum stopper. 569 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 2: Now we're gonna. 570 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 3: Go against that Washington team. What did I tell you 571 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,880 last week when we took Washington? We said, the only 572 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,279 time a team that has a record like Washington and 573 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,559 was expected to go to the playoffs this year because 574 00:30:37,599 --> 00:30:40,839 of what they did last year and they're out of it. 575 00:30:41,039 --> 00:30:43,400 The only time they're going to show up in play 576 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,240 hard is going to be a division game when they 577 00:30:47,279 --> 00:30:51,480 can play spoiler, or a standalone primetime game. 578 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:52,839 Speaker 2: What was last week? 579 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 3: A standalone primetime game on Sunday Night against the Denver Broncos. 580 00:30:57,519 --> 00:31:01,319 They brought everything they had and they lot in overtime. 581 00:31:01,599 --> 00:31:04,279 They decided to go for two in overtime for the 582 00:31:04,319 --> 00:31:07,480 win instead of kicking the field goal and continuing play. 583 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:08,559 Speaker 2: They lost. 584 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:13,039 Speaker 3: That was, you know, semis playoff game for them. Now 585 00:31:13,039 --> 00:31:14,359 they got to go on the road and play a 586 00:31:14,519 --> 00:31:19,559 Washington team or play Minnesota that absolutely looked like dog 587 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:20,640 crap last week. 588 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:24,119 Speaker 2: There's no other way to describe it. But they're gonna 589 00:31:24,119 --> 00:31:26,400 get JJ mccarthury back this week. 590 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 3: I know I'm not a fan of McCarthy, but what 591 00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:33,200 I saw quarterbacking last week. 592 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 2: For the Minnesota Vikings. 593 00:31:35,079 --> 00:31:38,279 Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy is a huge upgrade coming back, even though 594 00:31:38,279 --> 00:31:41,960 he's having a bad year. I can't take Washington in 595 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:46,200 this game. We'll go with Minnesota. They've got the superior defense. 596 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,400 I'll go ahead and lay the couple points with them. 597 00:31:49,799 --> 00:31:53,640 Washington is a poster child for lose the same game 598 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,000 twice after the gut wrenching loss to Denver. I'm calling 599 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:01,079 it Minnesota twenty four to fourteen, and Bears fans, I'm 600 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,160 rooting against one of your division teams. 601 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 2: So yay for me, yay for me? 602 00:32:07,119 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 1: I can't Marco DiAngelo, uh today, that was, by the way, 603 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,160 not planned. I don't know VR News is gonna do that. 604 00:32:15,279 --> 00:32:17,519 I sure as though I did not know that he 605 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,200 was going to do that. Just having a great time 606 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:24,799 here Week fourteen, NFL. We're gonna get into those best bets. 607 00:32:24,839 --> 00:32:30,160 Marco said he's betting against a team in the NFC North, 608 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,119 and now VR is gonna bet on a team in 609 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,559 the NFC North against that same Bears team. Oh boy, 610 00:32:37,759 --> 00:32:39,400 here we go, best bet time. 611 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 4: Please understand I have zero bias at all, and both 612 00:32:45,079 --> 00:32:47,680 Kelly and Marco have known me now for fifteen plus years. 613 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,559 That's the one thing. When it comes to sports betting, 614 00:32:49,599 --> 00:32:52,720 I'm very unbiased, but this week I do have a 615 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,799 slight bias in me. So this is gonna be a little, 616 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,759 little little extra suite because I kind of do have 617 00:32:57,799 --> 00:33:01,000 a little sour taste in my mouth on the replies 618 00:33:01,039 --> 00:33:03,920 than anything else. Here's the bottom line. All I can 619 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,000 do is tell you what the numbers say. That's it. 620 00:33:07,559 --> 00:33:11,160 There's a difference between opinion and fact, and fact is 621 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,799 on this show. I am fifty five fifty two, twenty 622 00:33:15,839 --> 00:33:18,640 two and one. We've done bet on it now fourteen 623 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,640 weeks combined college football and NFL fifty five twenty two 624 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,559 and one. That's about seventy percent. So I will be 625 00:33:26,799 --> 00:33:31,279 wrong on occasion. All right. Now, last week we got 626 00:33:31,319 --> 00:33:36,279 the Eagles Chicago game wrong. We all gave an opinion 627 00:33:36,319 --> 00:33:39,160 on that game that was wrong. That was the opinion. 628 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,079 Here we have a best bet. 629 00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:41,839 Speaker 2: Here's the difference. 630 00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 4: So make sure we cut this and put this out 631 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:48,319 on social media because this warrants best bet category. In fact, 632 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,960 subscribers don't be surprised, like with New England, like with 633 00:33:52,079 --> 00:33:55,319 the Redskins, like with how many plays? Now I add 634 00:33:55,359 --> 00:33:58,200 an extra one percent, so you know just how strong 635 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,240 it is. And here's where we're looking at Chicago against 636 00:34:01,279 --> 00:34:04,039 green Bay. We have a great spot to take green 637 00:34:04,079 --> 00:34:09,719 Bay at a huge discount against an overrated Chicago Bears 638 00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:14,320 team and the overrated Moniker may be opinion, but let's 639 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,119 talk some facts real quickly. Chicago has had the twenty 640 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:23,719 ninth toughest strength of schedule, so only many teams and 641 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,440 all the NFL had an easier go of it. So 642 00:34:26,559 --> 00:34:29,920 far this year, they've produced a nine to three record 643 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:35,519 respectable stat wise, though, here's what they have. They're not 644 00:34:35,559 --> 00:34:39,400 in the top five to fifteen in offensive efficiency. They're 645 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,239 not in the top twenty, not in the top twenty 646 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:47,960 in defensive efficiency. This team has benefited from an easy 647 00:34:48,039 --> 00:34:53,119 strength of schedule. In fact, six of their last eight 648 00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:58,519 wins have come by one score. Just look at those games. 649 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,920 They beat Washington by one, they beat the Raiders by one, 650 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,239 they beat Cincinnati by five, they beat the Giants by four, 651 00:35:08,519 --> 00:35:12,760 they beat Minnesota by two, they beat Pittsford by three. 652 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:17,159 There's so much randomness to the outcome of those games. 653 00:35:17,559 --> 00:35:20,719 This could very easily be a three to nine football 654 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:25,199 team based on the data. That's all I'm sharing with you. 655 00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,639 The data opposite side of the football. Green Bay Packers, okay, 656 00:35:30,119 --> 00:35:34,159 also easy strength of schedule, one slot harder than Chicago, 657 00:35:34,599 --> 00:35:37,559 but also had an easy strength of schedule. But with 658 00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,960 that easy strength of schedule, they've produced the fourth most 659 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:47,880 efficient defense the tenth most efficient offense. That's what Green 660 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:52,639 Bay's done, power rating wise. On a neutral field, green 661 00:35:52,639 --> 00:35:54,599 Bay should be a five and a half hot, five 662 00:35:54,639 --> 00:35:57,440 point seven, five point favorite, a little less than a 663 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,880 six point favorite, but they have a home field advantage 664 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,719 that's worth about two point twenty five. So we add 665 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,280 that to the five point seven to five and green 666 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,159 Bay should be about an eight point favorite in this game. 667 00:36:10,159 --> 00:36:13,480 We're getting them discounted below that key number of seven 668 00:36:14,119 --> 00:36:19,119 because the whole world just wants Chicago beat Philadelphia as 669 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,920 touchdown dogs all national television a week ago. That's the 670 00:36:24,079 --> 00:36:26,800 only reason, because on the other side of the football, 671 00:36:27,119 --> 00:36:30,440 green Bay was beating a top five team on the 672 00:36:30,519 --> 00:36:34,960 road in the Detroit Lions. Take the green Bay Packers 673 00:36:35,599 --> 00:36:38,920 lay the six, six and a half seven. Don't bother 674 00:36:39,119 --> 00:36:42,880 teasing Chicago because they lose this game by two touchdowns. 675 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:49,039 Speaker 1: Plush boy, that was that was a Mike drop against 676 00:36:49,079 --> 00:36:51,840 Marco in his Chicago Bears T shirt. Who gets to 677 00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,960 go next? Marco? Let me know what's going on over 678 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,559 at wager talk dot com from your side of things, 679 00:36:58,679 --> 00:37:00,920 and also why you like the Colts to have a 680 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:01,840 bounce back week. 681 00:37:02,599 --> 00:37:05,039 Speaker 3: Okay, I'll just be real quick. We've talked about it 682 00:37:05,079 --> 00:37:08,360 a couple times now. Fourteen days all access for one 683 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,719 hundred and thirty nine dollars. You'll get every sport I release. 684 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,920 I am not high volume. You'll get an average of 685 00:37:15,079 --> 00:37:18,840 one to three plays per day and obviously more on 686 00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,400 the weekends. It averages out. But guess what, the last 687 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,320 thirty four days, we're up fifty five units. That's fifty 688 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:29,199 five hundred dollars playing one hundred dollars a unit. Sometimes 689 00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,719 you know the low volume, that's what I do. But 690 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:36,000 I look for the quality, not the quantity. And check 691 00:37:36,039 --> 00:37:39,119 it out. Now for this week, I'm going for my 692 00:37:39,159 --> 00:37:41,239 best bet. We're going to look at the Indianapolis Colts 693 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,480 at the Jacksonville Jaguars. And this is one of those 694 00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:48,039 situations where it's public perception and right now people are 695 00:37:48,079 --> 00:37:51,679 in love with Jacksonville and they're looking at Indianapolis like 696 00:37:52,159 --> 00:37:54,199 I'm not gonna try to catch a falling knife. You 697 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:58,480 know they're not playing well. Jacksonville has owned this series, 698 00:37:58,519 --> 00:38:01,960 there's no question about that. When they play in Jacksonville. 699 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:06,440 Jacksonville has won ten straight. But this is by far 700 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,760 the best Indianapolis team that we have seen in recent years. 701 00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,360 They're overreacting to Indianapolis's one in three record over the 702 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,880 last four games. The loss go over those losses in there. 703 00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,719 They lost to Pittsburgh on the road. In Pittsburgh, they 704 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,360 were minus five and turnovers in that game. When you're 705 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,599 minus five in an NFL game, you're gonna lose, There's 706 00:38:31,599 --> 00:38:34,519 no question about that, but you should lose by a 707 00:38:34,559 --> 00:38:37,639 big margin. They only lost that game by seven points, 708 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,880 a one score game, even minus five and turnovers. That 709 00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,960 tells you how superior they really were in that game. 710 00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,559 The other two losses were to Kansas City in Houston. 711 00:38:48,079 --> 00:38:52,159 Those two teams have something in common. They're both good 712 00:38:52,199 --> 00:38:58,599 teams with elite defenses. Jacksonville is a decent good team, 713 00:38:58,639 --> 00:39:01,639 not a great team. Good team, but they don't have 714 00:39:01,679 --> 00:39:05,880 an elite defense. I think Indianapolis is gonna move the 715 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,679 football this week against Jacksonville. Jacksonville's given up twenty four 716 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,599 or more in four of their last six games in Indy. 717 00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:17,639 In their losses this year, the four losses all have 718 00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,079 been by seven points or less. I think they're the 719 00:39:20,079 --> 00:39:23,840 better team. I'm going with Indy. I think the line 720 00:39:24,199 --> 00:39:27,079 is a gift. I have it more so that they 721 00:39:27,079 --> 00:39:29,840 should be a three point favorite. Look for Daniel Jones 722 00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,280 to have a big game this week and we'll go 723 00:39:33,039 --> 00:39:36,320 buy low on the Indianapolis Colts as my best bet. 724 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,519 Speaker 1: I am not buying low for my best bet, and 725 00:39:39,679 --> 00:39:42,239 you guys shouldn't expect me to because I have not 726 00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:45,039 been doing well in these but I did cash a 727 00:39:45,079 --> 00:39:48,079 best bet last weekend. Barking dogs have been good best bets, 728 00:39:48,119 --> 00:39:50,000 not so much. But we did turn a corner and 729 00:39:50,039 --> 00:39:52,320 that's because we just took the low hanging fruit with 730 00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,880 the Los Angeles Chargers and bet against the Raiders. 731 00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:56,239 Speaker 2: So what are we gonna do this week? Yeah, We're 732 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:57,559 gonna just better against the Raiders. 733 00:39:57,599 --> 00:40:00,719 Speaker 1: Because what happened last time Denver played the Raiders there 734 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:04,320 in Denver. Oh, what an ugly game that was. Denver 735 00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:09,519 somehow squeaked out a win ten to seven. Gross VR 736 00:40:09,599 --> 00:40:12,119 will tell you exactly how the power ratings perspective needs 737 00:40:12,159 --> 00:40:13,760 to go in this one, and I think the spread 738 00:40:14,159 --> 00:40:17,239 is right on the mark. But the reality is the 739 00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:22,840 Broncos are a significantly better team here in December than 740 00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,039 the Raiders are. This game was played a month ago, 741 00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,960 and these two teams have been headed in different directions. 742 00:40:29,199 --> 00:40:32,159 Hand up, I have been just as critical of the 743 00:40:32,199 --> 00:40:34,880 Denver Broncos as I have the Chicago Bears, yet the 744 00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:36,719 Broncos fans have not been near as mean to me 745 00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:41,760 in the comment section. I understand that Bo Knicks is 746 00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,199 a better quarterback than I said he was gonna be 747 00:40:44,199 --> 00:40:46,599 when he was drafted, and I understand this Broncos offense 748 00:40:47,079 --> 00:40:50,440 is starting to play much better now. If you remember, 749 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:50,920 the last. 750 00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:52,280 Speaker 2: Time these two played, Gino Smith. 751 00:40:52,079 --> 00:40:55,840 Speaker 1: Sacked six times, and since then the offensive line has 752 00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:00,760 only gotten worse, not only riddled with injury, but now 753 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,199 they're gonna be missing Dante Thornton Junior because he got 754 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:07,559 a concussion last week with the Chargers. Please remember that 755 00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,239 Chargers game was seventeen, but that's because Justin Herbert was 756 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,920 out during part of it because he suffered a hand injury. 757 00:41:15,119 --> 00:41:18,000 I think that game could have gotten much worse out 758 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,199 of hand, so As I said, I've been quick to 759 00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,920 point out all of bone Nix's flaws, but I think 760 00:41:23,119 --> 00:41:25,639 the Broncos are gonna need seventeen points to cover this 761 00:41:25,679 --> 00:41:27,679 git spread against the Raiders. I mean, they could be 762 00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:31,280 seventeen to three and none of us would be surprised. 763 00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,280 And I know this Broncos team with all they do 764 00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,199 is win games at home. But tell me Allegiant Stadium 765 00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:38,920 is not going to be a home game for the 766 00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,239 Broncos on Sunday. That place is going to be absolutely 767 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,119 filled with blue and orange. Raiders fans have all but 768 00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:50,239 quit on this team. Next up, we'll see if Pete 769 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:54,800 Carroll cannot quit mid season as well. He's looking pretty 770 00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,159 tapped out there on the sidelines. Shout out to all 771 00:41:58,199 --> 00:41:59,679 of you guys for hanging out with us every single 772 00:41:59,679 --> 00:42:01,800 week here and bet on It, and we appreciate you 773 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,079 letting us poke a little bit of fun back on 774 00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:08,480 everyone for myself, VR and Marco to next week, let's 775 00:42:08,519 --> 00:42:10,480 bet on it. And of course, if you miss the 776 00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,480 College Football edition to bet on It, it's right here. 777 00:42:12,519 --> 00:42:14,960 And if you prefer to watch the Mega Show, click 778 00:42:15,039 --> 00:42:15,519 right above.