Speaker 1: NFL Week fourteen is upon us here on bet on It.
We're gonna get into those barking dogs, those TV games,
that's right, Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night football.
The Deli. Marco's got some questions to answer about the
deli from the comment section, so we'll get to that
here in a minute. Of course, we're gonna get the
Steam report from VR as well as those best bets
up next on bet on It. Welcome in to bet
on It, Kelly Stewart here, Yanni the Greek, Marco DiAngelo,
the King of.
Speaker 2: The sub Sandwich.
Speaker 1: We'll get to the deli here in just a little bit,
because first we got to talk about Thursday Night football. Marco,
we were talking about this one a little bit off air.
Dallas is a three point underdog at Detroit fifty three
and a half, and the ark kind of said, Detroit,
if they play their best games, should kill this day
Cowboys team. And I said absolutely. But this Dallas Cowboys
team has been playing with a big time resurgence since
that Las Vegas Raiders game, particularly on the backs of
that defense. Total right now is fifty four and a half.
Make this one make a little bit of sense for me.
Speaker 2: Well, Kelly, pure and simple.
Speaker 3: Yes, the Cowboys are playing much better over the last
month than they did most of the season. And full disclaimer,
if we pick against your team, it's nothing personal. Okay,
I picked against the Steelers as much as anybody, But yes,
I'm talking to you, Chicago Bear fans. We're this game here, Detroit.
This line should be higher, but the recency bias and
people know what they just saw, and what they just
saw was both of these teams played on Thanksgiving Day.
One team lost, one team won. And I think it's
creating a ton of line value with Detroit. Dallas has
beaten and back to back weeks. Give them credit last
year's two Super Bowl participants. They beat Philadelphia and they
beat Kansas City Philadelphia. Right now, they've got a problem
with the offense. Okay, they're not playing their best football.
It was just a month ago that we were penciling
them right into the Super Bowl. But that's how things
change in the NFL. On the other hand, Detroit, if
you look two weeks ago, people say, oh, they struggled
against the Giants. They were lucky to come back and
tie that and win it in overtime. Yeah, they were,
but that was a horrible sandwich spot for Detroit. They
were coming off the Sunday night game against Philadelphia and
then they had green Bay on deck in four days.
On Thanksgiving Day, they went through the motions against the Giants,
but they found a way to win the green Bay. Yes,
they lost on Thanksgiving Day, but green Bay is a
good team. I know a lot of people don't like
Jordan Love, they don't want to give the team credit,
but they've been consistent all year. So yeah, Detroit lost
at home. In my opinion, they're taking a step down
playing the Cowboys. And I don't mean that in a
bad way. I'm just comparing Dallas in green Bay. Those
two teams. On a neutral field, green Bay is going
to be favored, pure and simple, and yet we're getting
the same type of number this week with Detroit against Dallas.
Give me Detroit. The value is there. We're all about
trying to find value and present and make good bets.
This is a good bet. You want to look at
a recncy trend last eight games. Look at what the
Lions have done. Win, lose, win, lose, win, lose. Guess
what this is the pattern for the win and as
good as Dallas looks right now, you still cannot argue
the fact that on the road they're two and four
straight up on the road this year. Who were those
two wins? The Raiders in the Jets. I'll take Detroit minus.
Speaker 4: Three, Green Bay minus three and a half first, Dallas
on a neutral Marco. Yeah, I've been generous. That's after
justin Dallas upwards. Yeah, it would have been for last week,
So ton of value on Detroit. Here in what this line.
Speaker 1: Is Sunday Night football, Houston at Kansas City. Kansas City
is a three and a half point favorite total forty
two ish on the Odds logic screen. Right now, here's
kind of the reality. And I listen, I get stuck
with these games because I let the other guys choose
their games first, you do. But I've been gutting against
Kansas City all season long. I took under eleven and
a half wins. I took no playoffs, So I guess
I have to keep betting against Kansas City. And it
makes sense. The Chiefs have failed to cover now in
four straight games, three outright losses as a favorite, and
on the flip side, Houston is doing exact opposite they
have won four straight.
Speaker 2: CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud has returned, and even on that three week break,
his good old buddy Davis Mills got it done for him.
I think this Texas team is in good health. I
think that they're establishing a nice connection with Nicocollins and
getting this offense really going. Speaking of offense, Kansas City
major issues on the offensive line. Josh Simmons, Joan Taylor,
Trey Smith all got hurt last week versus Dallas, and
as of Wednesday afternoon are all three doubtful to return
this week. So when you have those cluster injuries to
start to compile late in the season, it is not
a good thing to be laying points with a team
that is beat up. Yes, obviously they saw Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 2: Yes he still.
Speaker 1: Has his security blanket named Travis Kelcey. But right now
I think Houston has not only the better roster, but
the healthier roster. And VR has been talking about power
ratings a lot. I know you guys love it in
the comment section. I know power ratings wise, the Chiefs
are still a top five team, but with those offensive
line injuries and against one of the best defensive lines
in the league, I have no choice but to take
the three and a half here with the Texans they are.
Talk to me about the Chiefs from a power rating perspective.
Have you been downgrading them over this last four weeks.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have.
Speaker 4: And they're still in the top five. Believe it or not.
It's just power rating wise because and here's why. They
have a top five defense. They still have a top
ten offense, they have a top fifteen strength of schedule,
and they're the Kansas City Chiefs. They still have a
you know, a strong home field advantage. They are who
they are. And again, this is just the numbers. That's
why you see the lines, Like you know, the odds makers,
they're just looking at their numbers. There's no bias neither.
I mean, you know, obviously some of us are fans
of teams or whatever, but at the end of the day,
it's just the numbers. And Kansas City maybe a six
and six football team, but power rating wise, yep, they're
still top five. They would still be favored over teams
like San Francisco who's nine and four, Philadelphia eight and four,
Denver ten and two, New England eleven and two. Those
are you know, football teams that would just be underdogs
to them. And the reason like New England perfect example,
they're barely top fifteen offense, they're barely top ten defense,
and they had the easiest strength of schedule in all
the NFL. That's why they don't get that respect even
though they're an eleven and two football team. So it's
just the data. It's just the numbers and case number
wise on paper doesn't mean on the field you're going
to go out there and get it done. But on paper,
that's the bottom line that they're a top five power
rated team.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into Monday night football. You grew
up in Philadelphia. They are a three point favorite at
the LA Chargers forty one. Please help fellow Philadelphia and
Dan Alexander out with this one, because I'm sure right
now he is an Eagles hell after that Bears upset
on Black Friday.
Speaker 4: Yeah, here's the thing, if they played again, I think
this is what a lot of recreational betters make the
mistake of not realizing that if they played that game
the very next day, the Eagles would still be a
big favorite over the Bears. Maybe not a seven point
juice favorite, but probably still around a six point favorite.
That's the bottom line. There's a lot of randomness to
the outcome of a sixty minute football game. You gotta
remember that he can't put way too much stock in it.
Here's what we're seeing in this game. First of all,
sharp money coming in on the Eagles. The look ahead
was one and a half, got to two and a half.
Now it's up to that key number of three on
the Chargers. The over under was forty four. Was the
look ahead down the forty one. So steam on the Eagles,
Steam on the under now obviously not surprising for the
under steam because you're looking at two top ten defenses,
Eagles that come in at number five inefficiency, Chargers come
in at number ten in efficiency. What's more impressive Eagle
side is that's also against the top ten strength of schedule,
where the Chargers had a really easy strength of schedule.
The only team with an easier strength of schedule is
the New England Patriots. So that's why this Charger team
is a home dog to the Eagles, even though they
have this exact same record sitting at eight and four.
It's warranted. But where this line sits right now, I
gotta look to the dog to the Chargers. And here's why.
When I look at my power ratings I create, I'm
able to create a betting line. And here's the betting
line that I come up with. Philadelphia should be a
three and a half point favorite over the LA Chargers on.
Speaker 2: A neutral field. This isn't a neutral field.
Speaker 4: It's being played in LA. The Chargers' home field advantage
is almost two points one point nine something, So I
take that two points off the three and a half
and that makes the Eagles a one and a half
point favorite. That's what it opened at. Since then, it's
been Eagle money that's forced the adjustment. I don't think
that's warranted, especially with a team where the wills seem
to be falling off. You lose to rival Dallas first
of all, where you had a huge lead. Then Thanksgiving
at home touchdown favorites, you lose to Chicago. I know
you're supposed to go on the road and beat a
Charger team that you're better than, especially since who's going
to respect the Chargers? Who do they beat the Raiders Pittsburgh, Tennessee.
You can only play who's in front of you. That's
the bottom line, And at three points, I got to
take the Chargers at home, especially, Like I said, I
like the splits with them. They've won over seventy percent
of their home games. Take the three points with the Chargers.
I haven't gotten to the window with this gat. I
don't know if I'll get to the window with this
gap again. The primetime games, I've done really well eighteen
and eight over the last twenty six Sunday Night Football
and Monday Night Football bets. So I don't want to
commit to the Chargers. If this game was going on
like now, it would be Chargers or Pass for me.
Speaker 1: I just wish every once in a while I can
give you guys a little sneak peak of what I
see behind the camera scene and Dan and just sitting
there in absolute utter hell wanting to chime in. I'm
not gonna do that to him, though I do that
on another shows where it is bring people in and
then I'm not gonna do that to him. You guys
can catch him over on wager Talk Today if you
want to hear about his opinions on that one. Speaking
of wager Talk Today, you're there, yeah, four or five
days a week. Generally you give out a ton of
steam stuff. You also give out your steam for me
on College Table Saturdays, on Last Call NFL Sundays with
Ariel Epstein, you do a steam sheet now and then
you also do a steam room Sundays for premium subscribers,
kind of give us a little preview for NFL Week
fourteen into what that looks like for this week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that steam sheet has been the saving grace
for me as far as being able to help my
subscribers actually turn up when I'm able to do so.
And I've been able to really cut down the volume,
which is why I've been able to be at number
one last seven days, last thirty days, Because before with
so much volume, it's really hard. You're not going to
hit sixty five percent when you're vetting fifty games. But
now I'm able to share that information on the Steamshet.
Every single day, I put out all the stuff that
comes across from the sharp groups I move for, or
guys that move for other groups that share their information,
So I share that immediately with anyone that's got the Steamshet,
so they're able to then look at the play and
decide for themselves do they agree, they disagree, do they
want to piggyback it? Exactly what I do with the
information that comes across my desk, So I'm putting them
in my position. For those guys that handicap their own stuff,
have their own opinion. Speaking of the steam room, that's
every Sunday. We'll change it up once NFL is over
because college basketball Saturday will be big for us. But
final hour we go over as many NFL games as possible.
Always cover at least all the early games, signed total
player props plus EV teasers, answer all your questions, and
more importantly, discuss risk management, which is most important. Now,
somebody steam four this week in the NFL. I'm just
going to read what was in the steam sheet from Monday.
Atlanta plus eight and plus seven and a half, Tampa
one thirty six, Tampa minus eight, minus eight and a half,
one thirty one, Indianapolis Jacksonville under forty eight one forty six.
That's the Monday night game Philly and the LA Chargers
under forty two and forty one and a half.
Speaker 2: Not all that much movement so far.
Speaker 4: Also, the Green Bay line look ahead with six and
a half dump down the five and a half. Obviously,
Chicago looked really good beating the Eagles. But that's when
immediately Steam came in on the Green Bay Packers, which
we'll talk about a little bit later, and also under
forty five in that game. So that's some of the
hit games that got hit early in the week. But
again between now and Sunday, a lot of information. I'll
be on Last Call as well on Sunday morning, absolutely.
Speaker 1: Last Call with Aeron Epstein eleven am Eastern, eight am Pacific.
You guys will go over the entire NFL card with
VR as well as John Murray and I got a
double check who else is on Sunday this week. I
think it's Jesse Schule, But next week I've already got
Marco D'Angelo pencil. Then I already said Marco, I need
an early commitment from you because it is a national
signing day in college football and he's going to be
there following week with Aeron Epstein, let's get into those
barking dogs, guys. We got some big ones this week
for what it's worth, and Marco, before we get into it,
can you let me know what's going on over at
wager talk dot com as a whole.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, A lot of stuff going on right now.
We've got an early Bird Bowl special. We've got the
Weekend Warrior that has been one of our most popular packages.
Forty nine dollars get Saturday Sunday college in NFL football,
and if your capper you choose has a Monday night
football game, you get that as well. Me personally, Kelly,
I got a special going this week. You've got to
check it out. We have been on a tear with
our plays. It's been a great run our five percent plays,
which by the way, we are going to have another
five percent play this weekend. Those plays going back to
February of twenty twenty four, we are forty and sixteen
with those five percent plays our college football plays for
the season. When I've released a four or five percent
play twenty one in six for the season, you can
join me for this package. You can get it for
just one hundred and thirty nine dollars fourteen days. That's
not just football, that's all plays, college basketball, NBA hockey.
You can get it all for fourteen days for one
hundred and thirty nine dollars. If you bought two weeks individually,
you would spend one hundred and ninety eight. We are
currently plus fifty five hundred dollars in the last thirty
four days with a fifty three and thirty three overall record.
That's what's going on at wager Talk this week. Kelly
love it, Marco.
Speaker 1: Let's get into your barking dog, and I'm gonna make
you go first because you got the smallest one. Talk
to me about Hey, talk to me about why you
like Atlanta catching a touchdown here.
Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, if I'm the smallest with a seven point dog,
I'll take the seven there. Okay, this play is as
much a play about going against Seattle than it is
taking Atlanta. Let's be honest, Taking Seattle looks way too easy. Okay,
they're nine and three, They're coming off a twenty six
nothing blowout win. But if you look at the stats,
they really did nothing offensively in that game. They only
had two hundred and nineteen yards of offense. How they
won that game last week? That defense, that defense is
one of the elite defenses in the NFL. This season,
they had Minnesota turned the football over five times in
one of the most ugliest performances I've ever seen out
of an NFL team. Offensively, it was horrible. Sam Darnold,
you thought he might have had a really big game
last week. He was going against Minnesota, the team that
he took to the playoffs last year. Had the team
have their best season in several seasons. But because he
lost the last regular season game and he lost the
first playoff game, Minnesota moved on from him. So that
was a big revenge game for him last week.
Speaker 2: You know, what do he do?
Speaker 3: Ninety four net passing yards on a fourteen of twenty
six passing day. I look for Seattle to be flat
this week. This is their third road game in four weeks.
Two trips from the you know, the Northwest to East
coast coming in three weeks. That's a lot of travel
for a team, and coming off that satisfying win in
a couple of those games. Before this stretch, they had
some big division games. So I think you look at
the schedule, this is a place to really easily look
against your opponent.
Speaker 2: Why not? Atlanta just lost to the Jets last week.
The Jets Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 3: He didn't do enough to win the game last week,
but he did look a lot better than he did
in this first start. More as he gets more reps
and more games under his belt, he's going to continue
to get better. Couple that with this being the major
flat flat spot on the schedule makes Atlanta, in my opinion,
a very live dog here. Seattle the other concern. If
you've been watching the league games the last few weeks,
even though they're finding ways to win games, they're turning
the football over more than they have all year. They
had three turnovers against Arizona, four turnovers against the Rams,
and two last week against Minnesota. The only clean game
they've had in the last four was against the hapless
Tennessee Titans, and they still only won that game by
six points. Atlanta takes it to the wire, Kelly, give
me the seven points and put a little sprinkle on
there as well.
Speaker 2: H Marco Seattle.
Speaker 1: I wanted to use them last week and Brett made
me use the Dolphins said, oh, we can use Seattle later.
I us in Seattle this week. That is for sure
another team that I'm a little nervous about using this week.
VR You like the other side, the Arizona Cardinals catching
eight and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this isn't by accident on Shave. This is me
working hard for the subscribers, just crushing it for them.
That's why that's why off this early in the morning,
and I just it's almost like a service announcement. I
want to help them make money. I told them going
into the Thanksgiving break that I was going to it's
that time of the year where there's just so much
extra value. The market conditions changed and what happened finished
number one over those days, while over the next six
weeks is another big money making opportunity with all the
college football and NFL closing out the season, so this
is a good time to jump on board now. NFL
coming into this show twenty three to fifteen and one,
right around that sixty percent mark, not bad for a show.
Overall college football and NFL fifty five twenty five and one,
it's about sixty nine percent. So we've been making money
for you on bed on It, and we're going to
continue doing that. Start off this week on the Live Dog.
Arizona Cardinals. Don't look now, but Jacoby Brissette has been
playing some really good football. In fact, he's had a
ninety two or higher QBR in five of his last
six starts, with three of those over one hundred QBR.
So even though they haven't, you know, won all those
games he's he's played well. I like that number two.
I like the fact that the Rams are coming off
a really heartbreaking loss against Carolina in a game they
were double digit favorites. And guess who's on board next?
Uh oh, the Detroit Lions that you get ad home.
So now Rams now have their second back to back
road games. Granted this is a divisional opponent, but there's
bigger fish in the Detroit Lions on deck next. Not
too much to get excited about on a three to
nine Arizona team. And here's what we're looking at with
the Rams. There's the number one power rated team in
all the NFL. They're number six in offensive efficiency, top
three defensive efficiency, and they have a top fifteen strength
of schedule, so very respectable. Flip side, Arizona barely top
twenty offense, barely top twenty defense, but they've had a
top ten strength of schedule all right, so they had
a very difficult strength of schedule. Power rating wise, LA
should be an eight point favorite on a neutral field
right now. Home field advantage for Arizona is about one
point seven to five this year, I coupled with the
last two or three years, So do the math there
makes the rams about a six to six point two
to five favorites based on my power ratings. Now dig
a little deeper and what you'll find is Arizona. When
they lose at home, they don't lose by margin. That's
the one place with Arizona that they're going to give
you effort. Even those games that they've lost, they have
not lost by more than a score. Jacksonville only beat
them by a field goal. Except for San Francisco, green
Bay only beat them by four, Tennessee by one, Seattle
by three. So they play hard at home. They give
you that effort. That's what you want from a live dog. Again,
we're getting what eight nine points eight and a half
nine's are out there when it should be six and
a half. I would have took it at seven when
it should be six point two five forgimme. Because seven
is such a key number. It would have been a
small bet. But once you get over that eight, it
makes it a bigger bet. I may I released a
premium to my subscribers four percent play, which means one
percent a bank roll. I would personally bet about maybe
fine to seven to ten percent at the most at
plus three three point thirty on the money line as well,
because I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams overlook them
and end up slipping. Oh.
Speaker 1: Back to back losses for the Rams is gonna be interesting,
and hopefully this dog doesn't win out right and it's
just back to back close losses, because I do think
i'd have to take Tampa Bay in Survivor this week.
Speaker 2: I was just looking on my splash.
Speaker 1: Account and I'm like, I don't think I have another
choice unless I want to take the Cleveland Brown.
Speaker 2: So I think I am gonna go with Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: But I do like New Orleans plus the eight and
a half year, and I do think it's gonna be
a lot closer game. I know Tampa's won six of
the last seven meetings, including just a few short weeks
ago in October, where I probably should have used the
Bucks because they won twenty three to three, and it
was interesting then because they were running a two quarterback set.
So now the Bucks can be prepared for either quarterback.
Here's my problem, though. The Bucks have failed to cover
the spread in the last four games, and New Orleans
is the only team the Bucks have covered against the
spread since mid October. I think this line is just
a little bit high, and that's probably because they're bagging
for Tampa Bay teaser money. But this is the most
points the Bucks have been asked to lay all season.
The way they've been playing recently and struggling like they
did last week against Arizona, I think it is going
to be Saints or pass for me. I know last
week the Saints should never have really been in that game, right,
Dolphins went down opening possession, scored, had a comfortable lead,
and then they decided to proceed to give me a
heart attack for the last two minutes of the game.
That's exactly what's going to happen this week too. So
take the eight and a half point it's here with
the Saints and hoped the Bucks actually can win the
game outright for me and my survivor, Marco. I said
that you have to answer to the comment section for
the Delhi this week, and that's because even though you
are thirty eight and twenty six on the season, people
are pissed.
Speaker 3: Wow, I gave some bad turkey sandwiches, you know, and
we went one and four last week.
Speaker 2: I've told you.
Speaker 3: Every week how good we've done with the deli, and
I'll tell you when we you know, win, I'm going
to tell you when we lose. We had a bad week,
but as you said, Deli eight winning weeks, four losing weeks,
one break even week. We're still thirty eight and twenty
six for the season with those Deli games.
Speaker 2: And shout out.
Speaker 3: We've added a new sandwich to the deli menu. I
just want to let you know, my good friends from Chicago. No,
we've put a Chicago dog on the menu. So you
go check out, you know, the deli, see if we can,
you know, have a sandwich come in and you know
mentioned the dullbars, the addition you like on your Chicago dog.
Speaker 1: Let's let's get let's get into the comments section here,
tell me what your ideal Chicago dog looks like.
Speaker 3: All right, Kelly, now you're gonna let me piss off
the entire city of Chicago again because I don't like
the relish that that goes on the Chicago Dog. And okay,
I know this is sacrilegious to true hot dog connoisseurs. One,
it's got to be a Vienna hot dog. It's got
to be the top of the line. That's what they
make the Chicago dogs out of you know, the authentic places.
But I'm gonna kill it. I'm gonna put ketch up
on my hot dog.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, up on your hot dog.
Speaker 5: You put mustard on there too, but you absolutely put
ketchup on their Chicago I get ridiculed.
Speaker 3: You don't, Chicago. You just set the comment section on fire.
You're gonna see how many people mustard onion.
Speaker 4: Relish give me all that.
Speaker 1: I would even just just just put all all of it.
Speaker 2: I want it all. That's what a Chicago dog is
to me.
Speaker 3: Okay, well I don't like the relish, I will substitute
relish and I'll put sauerkraud on.
Speaker 2: I do like seller sauerkraut. I'll do that.
Speaker 1: Make the Polish, the Polish and German viewers happy.
Speaker 5: Everybody else is gonna say, yeah, I know, we shout
out to the Chicago fans, though, really I I want
you guys.
Speaker 3: You know, I enjoyed spending the entire Thanksgiving week and
reading all the fascists that you guys had, you know,
and mark to do.
Speaker 1: I said, you guys, there is a button on as
mute conversation, and then you just let these people yell
into the void of themselves.
Speaker 2: We touched a nerve last week.
Speaker 3: I mean, I you know, I, Keelly, you've you've had
some you know, fan bases coming at you.
Speaker 2: I have never doing this.
Speaker 3: For four I had people come at us the way
they did NonStop from the minute that game ended on
for of Chicago and Philly to Saturday to Sunday.
Speaker 2: Nobody's talking about it. How about Carolina? You guys remember
you know Carolina? That was a winner. No all they
talked about VR with Texas.
Speaker 3: He talked to you guys all about Texas all week
on the shows.
Speaker 2: Nothing, no, no, thank you. Just we sucked because we
thought Chicago was overrated.
Speaker 3: What are you gonna do? It's a fun business, Kelly.
You you know it all too well.
Speaker 2: So listen.
Speaker 1: I'm here for it. The love, the hate, the Ventral
put it in the comments section because I just don't
understand it makes me more money on YouTube.
Speaker 4: I don't get it, Like these are grown men, like ah,
Like it just confuses the shit out of me.
Speaker 2: It really does.
Speaker 4: Like it's a regular season game. Bro, you took time
out of your day to actually write that to me,
Like how how like what is happening? In your world
that you actually needed to do that about.
Speaker 2: Company in their world.
Speaker 1: This this is the only bright spot is there. The
Chicago Bears are.
Speaker 4: That's why they still dress their stupid kids up like
Jim McMahon for Halloween with that dumb sweat band like
it's cool.
Speaker 2: Hey, did it suddenly get hot in here?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: Excuse me, no, it's I don't know all of the
all of the talk degrees this week in Florida, I'm freezing.
Speaker 6: No, no, no, it's no, no, no, it's hot.
Speaker 2: The best team in football. I love you, Chicago. I'm sorry.
All right, the show has gone completely off the rails.
Speaker 1: All the commenters that have said what a great job
I've done keeping us within parameters on a tight schedule
has just been.
Speaker 2: Completely wiped away.
Speaker 1: Marco wants to do his Deli segment in a Chicago
Bears shirt.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, and this is going to be an
ugly one. Okay, but that's what we do.
Speaker 3: We find ugly games that you've got to trust the process.
It worked with us last week. You know, Washington, we
told you about two teams going into the by coming
out of the buy together. One was on a roll.
One wasn't. We went with a team that wasn't. It's
a momentum stopper.
Speaker 2: Now we're gonna.
Speaker 3: Go against that Washington team. What did I tell you
last week when we took Washington? We said, the only
time a team that has a record like Washington and
was expected to go to the playoffs this year because
of what they did last year and they're out of it.
The only time they're going to show up in play
hard is going to be a division game when they
can play spoiler, or a standalone primetime game.
Speaker 2: What was last week?
Speaker 3: A standalone primetime game on Sunday Night against the Denver Broncos.
They brought everything they had and they lot in overtime.
They decided to go for two in overtime for the
win instead of kicking the field goal and continuing play.
Speaker 2: They lost.
Speaker 3: That was, you know, semis playoff game for them. Now
they got to go on the road and play a
Washington team or play Minnesota that absolutely looked like dog
crap last week.
Speaker 2: There's no other way to describe it. But they're gonna
get JJ mccarthury back this week.
Speaker 3: I know I'm not a fan of McCarthy, but what
I saw quarterbacking last week.
Speaker 2: For the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy is a huge upgrade coming back, even though
he's having a bad year. I can't take Washington in
this game. We'll go with Minnesota. They've got the superior defense.
I'll go ahead and lay the couple points with them.
Washington is a poster child for lose the same game
twice after the gut wrenching loss to Denver. I'm calling
it Minnesota twenty four to fourteen, and Bears fans, I'm
rooting against one of your division teams.
Speaker 2: So yay for me, yay for me?
Speaker 1: I can't Marco DiAngelo, uh today, that was, by the way,
not planned. I don't know VR News is gonna do that.
I sure as though I did not know that he
was going to do that. Just having a great time
here Week fourteen, NFL. We're gonna get into those best bets.
Marco said he's betting against a team in the NFC North,
and now VR is gonna bet on a team in
the NFC North against that same Bears team. Oh boy,
here we go, best bet time.
Speaker 4: Please understand I have zero bias at all, and both
Kelly and Marco have known me now for fifteen plus years.
That's the one thing. When it comes to sports betting,
I'm very unbiased, but this week I do have a
slight bias in me. So this is gonna be a little,
little little extra suite because I kind of do have
a little sour taste in my mouth on the replies
than anything else. Here's the bottom line. All I can
do is tell you what the numbers say. That's it.
There's a difference between opinion and fact, and fact is
on this show. I am fifty five fifty two, twenty
two and one. We've done bet on it now fourteen
weeks combined college football and NFL fifty five twenty two
and one. That's about seventy percent. So I will be
wrong on occasion. All right. Now, last week we got
the Eagles Chicago game wrong. We all gave an opinion
on that game that was wrong. That was the opinion.
Here we have a best bet.
Speaker 2: Here's the difference.
Speaker 4: So make sure we cut this and put this out
on social media because this warrants best bet category. In fact,
subscribers don't be surprised, like with New England, like with
the Redskins, like with how many plays? Now I add
an extra one percent, so you know just how strong
it is. And here's where we're looking at Chicago against
green Bay. We have a great spot to take green
Bay at a huge discount against an overrated Chicago Bears
team and the overrated Moniker may be opinion, but let's
talk some facts real quickly. Chicago has had the twenty
ninth toughest strength of schedule, so only many teams and
all the NFL had an easier go of it. So
far this year, they've produced a nine to three record
respectable stat wise, though, here's what they have. They're not
in the top five to fifteen in offensive efficiency. They're
not in the top twenty, not in the top twenty
in defensive efficiency. This team has benefited from an easy
strength of schedule. In fact, six of their last eight
wins have come by one score. Just look at those games.
They beat Washington by one, they beat the Raiders by one,
they beat Cincinnati by five, they beat the Giants by four,
they beat Minnesota by two, they beat Pittsford by three.
There's so much randomness to the outcome of those games.
This could very easily be a three to nine football
team based on the data. That's all I'm sharing with you.
The data opposite side of the football. Green Bay Packers, okay,
also easy strength of schedule, one slot harder than Chicago,
but also had an easy strength of schedule. But with
that easy strength of schedule, they've produced the fourth most
efficient defense the tenth most efficient offense. That's what Green
Bay's done, power rating wise. On a neutral field, green
Bay should be a five and a half hot, five
point seven, five point favorite, a little less than a
six point favorite, but they have a home field advantage
that's worth about two point twenty five. So we add
that to the five point seven to five and green
Bay should be about an eight point favorite in this game.
We're getting them discounted below that key number of seven
because the whole world just wants Chicago beat Philadelphia as
touchdown dogs all national television a week ago. That's the
only reason, because on the other side of the football,
green Bay was beating a top five team on the
road in the Detroit Lions. Take the green Bay Packers
lay the six, six and a half seven. Don't bother
teasing Chicago because they lose this game by two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Plush boy, that was that was a Mike drop against
Marco in his Chicago Bears T shirt. Who gets to
go next? Marco? Let me know what's going on over
at wager talk dot com from your side of things,
and also why you like the Colts to have a
bounce back week.
Speaker 3: Okay, I'll just be real quick. We've talked about it
a couple times now. Fourteen days all access for one
hundred and thirty nine dollars. You'll get every sport I release.
I am not high volume. You'll get an average of
one to three plays per day and obviously more on
the weekends. It averages out. But guess what, the last
thirty four days, we're up fifty five units. That's fifty
five hundred dollars playing one hundred dollars a unit. Sometimes
you know the low volume, that's what I do. But
I look for the quality, not the quantity. And check
it out. Now for this week, I'm going for my
best bet. We're going to look at the Indianapolis Colts
at the Jacksonville Jaguars. And this is one of those
situations where it's public perception and right now people are
in love with Jacksonville and they're looking at Indianapolis like
I'm not gonna try to catch a falling knife. You
know they're not playing well. Jacksonville has owned this series,
there's no question about that. When they play in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville has won ten straight. But this is by far
the best Indianapolis team that we have seen in recent years.
They're overreacting to Indianapolis's one in three record over the
last four games. The loss go over those losses in there.
They lost to Pittsburgh on the road. In Pittsburgh, they
were minus five and turnovers in that game. When you're
minus five in an NFL game, you're gonna lose, There's
no question about that, but you should lose by a
big margin. They only lost that game by seven points,
a one score game, even minus five and turnovers. That
tells you how superior they really were in that game.
The other two losses were to Kansas City in Houston.
Those two teams have something in common. They're both good
teams with elite defenses. Jacksonville is a decent good team,
not a great team. Good team, but they don't have
an elite defense. I think Indianapolis is gonna move the
football this week against Jacksonville. Jacksonville's given up twenty four
or more in four of their last six games in Indy.
In their losses this year, the four losses all have
been by seven points or less. I think they're the
better team. I'm going with Indy. I think the line
is a gift. I have it more so that they
should be a three point favorite. Look for Daniel Jones
to have a big game this week and we'll go
buy low on the Indianapolis Colts as my best bet.
Speaker 1: I am not buying low for my best bet, and
you guys shouldn't expect me to because I have not
been doing well in these but I did cash a
best bet last weekend. Barking dogs have been good best bets,
not so much. But we did turn a corner and
that's because we just took the low hanging fruit with
the Los Angeles Chargers and bet against the Raiders.
Speaker 2: So what are we gonna do this week? Yeah, We're
gonna just better against the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Because what happened last time Denver played the Raiders there
in Denver. Oh, what an ugly game that was. Denver
somehow squeaked out a win ten to seven. Gross VR
will tell you exactly how the power ratings perspective needs
to go in this one, and I think the spread
is right on the mark. But the reality is the
Broncos are a significantly better team here in December than
the Raiders are. This game was played a month ago,
and these two teams have been headed in different directions.
Hand up, I have been just as critical of the
Denver Broncos as I have the Chicago Bears, yet the
Broncos fans have not been near as mean to me
in the comment section. I understand that Bo Knicks is
a better quarterback than I said he was gonna be
when he was drafted, and I understand this Broncos offense
is starting to play much better now. If you remember,
the last.
Speaker 2: Time these two played, Gino Smith.
Speaker 1: Sacked six times, and since then the offensive line has
only gotten worse, not only riddled with injury, but now
they're gonna be missing Dante Thornton Junior because he got
a concussion last week with the Chargers. Please remember that
Chargers game was seventeen, but that's because Justin Herbert was
out during part of it because he suffered a hand injury.
I think that game could have gotten much worse out
of hand, so As I said, I've been quick to
point out all of bone Nix's flaws, but I think
the Broncos are gonna need seventeen points to cover this
git spread against the Raiders. I mean, they could be
seventeen to three and none of us would be surprised.
And I know this Broncos team with all they do
is win games at home. But tell me Allegiant Stadium
is not going to be a home game for the
Broncos on Sunday. That place is going to be absolutely
filled with blue and orange. Raiders fans have all but
quit on this team. Next up, we'll see if Pete
Carroll cannot quit mid season as well. He's looking pretty
tapped out there on the sidelines. Shout out to all
of you guys for hanging out with us every single
week here and bet on It, and we appreciate you
letting us poke a little bit of fun back on
everyone for myself, VR and Marco to next week, let's
bet on it. And of course, if you miss the
College Football edition to bet on It, it's right here.
And if you prefer to watch the Mega Show, click
right above.