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<v Speaker 1>All right, welcome to your custom deep dive. It looks

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<v Speaker 1>like someone's ready to tackle decision intelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>Ooh DII.

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<v Speaker 1>Based on all the stuff you sent our away, we

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<v Speaker 1>we duck into the Decision Intelligence Handbook by well by

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<v Speaker 1>DI experts, of course, and even pulled this Forbes article

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<v Speaker 1>that really that really caught our eye.

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<v Speaker 2>Interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>No, tell me, have you ever felt like like you're

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<v Speaker 1>just drowning in data? Right, but it's not really helping

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<v Speaker 1>you make decisions?

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<v Speaker 2>You definitely not along there. That Forbes article we pulled

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<v Speaker 2>really nailed it highlighted a big problem. It even cited

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<v Speaker 2>a study that found that decision makers get this, they

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<v Speaker 2>only use like twenty two percent of all the data

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<v Speaker 2>insights they.

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<v Speaker 1>Get twenty two percent. What's even the point of all

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<v Speaker 1>that data?

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<v Speaker 2>Then? Right, it's not just wasted resources either. Think about

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<v Speaker 2>the missed opportunities. Imagine if we could really use all

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<v Speaker 2>that data to make smarter choices.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so how do we fix that?

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<v Speaker 2>Then?

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<v Speaker 1>How do we bridge the gap between data overload and

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<v Speaker 1>actually making good decisions?

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<v Speaker 2>That's where comes in. It's not about getting more data,

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<v Speaker 2>it's about the right data used in the right way.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's a methodology it is.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a whole way of thinking that really focuses on

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<v Speaker 2>actions and outcomes.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like that flight simulator idea from the handbook. Oh yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you're not actually flying, but you get to test out

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<v Speaker 1>different scenarios and see what happens, right, and.

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<v Speaker 2>A safe environment. That's a great way to put it.

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<v Speaker 2>DII gives you that safe space for decisions less you

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<v Speaker 2>explore the impact of your choices before you actually set

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<v Speaker 2>them in motion. I like that, and the key part

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<v Speaker 2>of that is understanding how our actions lead to outcomes,

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<v Speaker 2>which brings us to causal decision diagrams cdds or cdds

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<v Speaker 2>for short.

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<v Speaker 1>The cdds were huge for me. It's like a flow

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<v Speaker 1>chart but on steroids. Uh huh, visually mapping out cause

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<v Speaker 1>and effect.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. But from what I understand, there's more to these

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<v Speaker 2>diagrams than meets the eye. Different types of nodes and

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<v Speaker 2>connections and all that interesting. So let's say you're decided

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<v Speaker 2>on a new marketing campaign AD for that would include

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<v Speaker 2>nodes for things like the cost of the campaign, the

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<v Speaker 2>potential reach, customer conversion rates, and then of course the

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<v Speaker 2>impact on revenue.

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<v Speaker 1>So you'd have nodes for each of those and then

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<v Speaker 1>connections between them, showing how they all affect each other.

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<v Speaker 2>And those connections they're not just simple arrows. They show

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<v Speaker 2>different types of causal relationships. Yeah, Like, there might be

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<v Speaker 2>a strong positive connection between the reach of the campaign

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<v Speaker 2>and the number of leads you get, makes sense, But

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<v Speaker 2>the connection between those leads and actual sales might be

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<v Speaker 2>more uncertain, influenced by your sales team or the overall

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<v Speaker 2>market demand.

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<v Speaker 1>This visual element is so crucial it is. It helps

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<v Speaker 1>everyone understand, from marketing to the CFO, even if they

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<v Speaker 1>usually hate spreadsheets.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, a CDD creates a shared understanding so everyone can

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<v Speaker 2>see the big picture and how all the pieces fit together.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's not always straightforward cause and effect, right, you

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<v Speaker 1>got it. Sometimes things have that we don't expect at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, like that sweet potato farmer example.

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<v Speaker 2>From the book Aha the nematode saga. Yeah, it really

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<v Speaker 2>shows how even good intentions.

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<v Speaker 1>Can backfire, So tell me about it.

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<v Speaker 2>This farmer was fighting these tiny pests that were messing

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<v Speaker 2>up his crops, making them unsellable and hurting his profits. Ouch,

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<v Speaker 2>So he decided to invest in a new irrigation system,

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<v Speaker 2>hoping to get bigger yields.

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<v Speaker 3>Sounded like a solid plan, right, but it didn't quite.

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<v Speaker 2>Go as planned. The news system, while good in theory,

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<v Speaker 2>accidentally created the perfect breeding ground for the pests. Oh no,

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<v Speaker 2>he ended up with even more damaged crops and even

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<v Speaker 2>lower profits.

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<v Speaker 1>So even with the best data and the best intentions,

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<v Speaker 1>things can still go wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>This is where di I helps us see those hidden factors.

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<v Speaker 2>Those unknown unknowns that we might not even be aware of.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Instead of just focusing on what we think will happen,

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<v Speaker 1>di I helps us explore all the possible outcomes, all

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<v Speaker 1>of them, including the ones we might not have thought of.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like a pre mortem for decisions. I like that

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<v Speaker 2>it captures what DII is all about, anticipating what could

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<v Speaker 2>go wrong before it does and making smarter choices. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>based on a deep understanding of the situation.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so we've got this powerful tool helps us see

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<v Speaker 1>the whole picture, anticipate the unexpected, make more informed decisions.

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<v Speaker 1>But how do we actually use it?

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<v Speaker 2>Right? How do we apply it in real life and

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<v Speaker 2>the real world. The handbook had some interesting case studies,

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<v Speaker 2>like that telecom company they were trying to figure out

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<v Speaker 2>the best price for their unlimited data plans.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, they were facing tough competition, fierce, and.

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<v Speaker 2>They knew they had to make a data driven.

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<v Speaker 3>Decision, not just go with their gut.

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<v Speaker 2>Or copy what their competitors were doing.

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<v Speaker 1>This is where that sensitivity analysis comes in, right, Exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>They could use di to simulate different pricing scenarios and

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<v Speaker 1>see how those changes would impact their bottom line.

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<v Speaker 2>They could model all sorts of factors like customer churn,

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<v Speaker 2>competitive responses, even work capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>So they could run virtual experiments.

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<v Speaker 2>Essentially, yes, to see which pricing strategies would.

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<v Speaker 1>Work best maximize profitability.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, it's not just picking a price and hoping for

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<v Speaker 2>the best. Yeah, they could test different levers, see how

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<v Speaker 2>they interact in a complex system.

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<v Speaker 1>That telecom example is great. But I'm wondering, does di

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<v Speaker 1>I completely ignore human intuition.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a great question, because experience and gut feelings still

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<v Speaker 2>play a role. Right, You're absolutely right. Di I isn't

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<v Speaker 2>about replacing human judgment with algorithms. It's about empowering decision makers,

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<v Speaker 2>giving them the insights.

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<v Speaker 3>They need to make better choices.

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<v Speaker 2>Because even the best models have limitations and there are

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<v Speaker 2>always things we can't predict.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not data versus intuition. No, it's finding the

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<v Speaker 1>right balance exactly. The handbook mentioned a company trying to

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<v Speaker 1>upgrade their phone systems in like fifty countries.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, it was a huge project, a.

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<v Speaker 1>Logistical nightmare, absolutely, even without the technical stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>They had all these old systems, hundreds of content, different

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<v Speaker 2>needs in each location.

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<v Speaker 1>It was overwhelming, it was and.

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<v Speaker 2>Their first attempts failed because they just focused on the easiest.

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<v Speaker 1>Upgrades without seeing the big picture.

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<v Speaker 2>They missed those connections, the interdependencies.

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<v Speaker 1>That could make or break the project exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>That's where DII came in. They use it to create

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<v Speaker 2>a CDD that mapped out everything, the complexities, the interdependencies,

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<v Speaker 2>contract expirations, you name it.

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<v Speaker 1>So they could simulate different upgrade sequences.

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<v Speaker 2>And find the most efficient path.

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<v Speaker 1>They could see how actions in one country would impact

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<v Speaker 1>other countries later on, anticipate bottlenecks, avoid those cascading failures.

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<v Speaker 2>The results were amazing, saved millions of euros, finished at

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<v Speaker 2>as schedule.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>More importantly, DI changed their mindset. They started taking a

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<v Speaker 2>more strategic approach.

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<v Speaker 3>Holistic the decision making.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just finding the right answer, it's understanding the

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<v Speaker 1>whole system, making choices aligned with the bigger goals.

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<v Speaker 2>Speaking of goals, one thing that stood out to me

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<v Speaker 2>about DII was the focus on def objectives before diving

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<v Speaker 2>into data analysis.

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<v Speaker 3>You have to know where you're going exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>Even with the best data, you'll get lost.

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<v Speaker 1>Like setting off on a journey with no destination.

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<v Speaker 2>You might end up somewhere interesting, but probably not where

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<v Speaker 2>you want it to be.

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<v Speaker 1>So do I helps us define that destination and gives

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<v Speaker 1>us the tools to map out the route.

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<v Speaker 2>But it also makes us confront those unknown unknowns.

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<v Speaker 1>Those factors we might not even be aware of.

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<v Speaker 2>That's why the decision artifacts are so important. The cdds, models, simulations.

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<v Speaker 1>All the stuff we create during the DI process.

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<v Speaker 2>It becomes a record of our thinking. Yeah, our assumptions

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<v Speaker 2>are understanding.

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<v Speaker 3>At that moment in time, and they're not.

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<v Speaker 2>Just valuable for that specific decision, but for future decisions too.

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<v Speaker 1>Like a library of wisdom exactly. We can revisit them,

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<v Speaker 1>see what worked, what didn't.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe even spot patterns we missed before.

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<v Speaker 1>And continuously improve our decision, making.

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<v Speaker 2>A continuous improvement loop.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not just making one good decision, We're building a

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<v Speaker 1>system for making better decisions overall.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a great way to put it is an ongoing process,

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<v Speaker 2>the journey of discovery and.

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<v Speaker 3>Refinement, and a key part of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Is the decision retrospective.

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<v Speaker 1>We take the time to review what happened after a decision,

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<v Speaker 1>extract valuable lessons regardless of the outcome, because sometimes a

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<v Speaker 1>good decision can lead to.

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<v Speaker 3>A bad outcome, and vice versa.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about learning from our experiences exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>The retrospective is all about honesty. Did our process align

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<v Speaker 2>with our objectives? Did we consider everything? Challenge our assumptions.

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<v Speaker 1>Because even when there's no right answer, we can still

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<v Speaker 1>learn from the process.

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<v Speaker 2>Did we think about all the angles, identify potential risks,

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<v Speaker 2>challenge our own thinking, the accountability even when things are

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<v Speaker 2>out of our control.

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<v Speaker 1>Bringing us back to the human element of DII, balancing

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<v Speaker 1>data with expertise and judgment, di I is really pushing

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<v Speaker 1>us to be more deliberate, more thoughtful about our decisions.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a shift in how we think for sure, and

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<v Speaker 2>not just for individuals. D I could change how entire

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<v Speaker 2>organizations work.

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<v Speaker 1>Imagine every department using di to guide their choices.

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<v Speaker 2>From marketing to finance to operations.

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<v Speaker 1>Instead of all these separate decisions that often cause conflicts

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<v Speaker 1>and inefficiencies.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, everyone would be on the same page, working.

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<v Speaker 1>From the same playbook, with the shared understanding of the

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<v Speaker 1>big picture.

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<v Speaker 2>Shared understanding and alignment are key to really using di

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<v Speaker 2>I effectively.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just theory either.

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<v Speaker 2>The hambook mentioned companies already using di across the.

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<v Speaker 1>Board seeing real improvements.

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<v Speaker 2>In efficiency, profitability, even employee morale makes sense.

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<v Speaker 1>If people feel like they're part of the process, they'll

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<v Speaker 1>be more engaged, more invested in the outcomes.

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<v Speaker 2>It creates ownership, accountability.

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<v Speaker 1>It sounds amazing, but DII isn't a magic solution, is it.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course not. There are going to be.

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<v Speaker 1>Challenges, especially in big organizations.

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<v Speaker 2>Change is always tough, especially when it comes to something

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<v Speaker 2>like this.

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<v Speaker 1>People get comfortable with the old ways.

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<v Speaker 2>Some might see it as a threat to their power

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<v Speaker 2>or expertise.

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<v Speaker 1>And there's a technical side.

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<v Speaker 2>Building the cdds, getting the data, creating the simulations.

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<v Speaker 1>It takes a lot of resources and expertise, it.

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<v Speaker 2>Does, but the potential payoff can be huge, like.

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<v Speaker 1>Any good investment, and you don't have to jump all

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<v Speaker 1>in at once. Start small, maybe a pilot project in

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<v Speaker 1>one department, prove the concept, show the results win over

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<v Speaker 1>the skeptics exactly. Those case studies from the book are

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<v Speaker 1>really helpful.

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<v Speaker 2>They are. They provide real examples of how DII is

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<v Speaker 2>solving problems achieving.

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<v Speaker 1>Results in all sorts of industries.

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<v Speaker 2>A roadmap for the DI journey.

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<v Speaker 1>We can learn from others adapt their approaches to our

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<v Speaker 1>own situations.

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<v Speaker 2>Which brings us back to you, the listener.

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<v Speaker 1>How can you use these ideas for a decision you're

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<v Speaker 1>facing right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Could d I help you see hidden factors, test out

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<v Speaker 2>different scenarios, approach decision making with more confidence. That's the

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<v Speaker 2>question we want to think about.

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<v Speaker 1>That's it for this deep dive. It wasn't just about

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<v Speaker 1>shit information. We wanted to give you a new way

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<v Speaker 1>to think about decisions.

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<v Speaker 2>To make more informed choices in all parts of your life.

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<v Speaker 2>We hope this deep dive sparked your curiosity and gave

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<v Speaker 2>you some valuable tools and insights. Remember, better decision making is.

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<v Speaker 1>A journey, and DI can be a powerful ally.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us.