WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome back to another episode of The Restaurant Report. My

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<v Speaker 1>name is Paul Barron. I'm going to be your host today,

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<v Speaker 1>and today we're going to be diving into the issue

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<v Speaker 1>of tariffs and the restaurant industry. The impact could be

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<v Speaker 1>the largest ever in restaurant history. You don't want to

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<v Speaker 1>miss this one. We'll be right back. This episode is

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<v Speaker 1>back here on the restaurant Report. Welcome in you guys.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to kind of cover a couple of things here,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think with the issue of what's happening right

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<v Speaker 1>now in the trade wars between primarily the US and China,

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<v Speaker 1>the issue is starting to play out in a very

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<v Speaker 1>unusual turn of events for the restaurant industry, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to talk about that today on how this is

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<v Speaker 1>going to impact brands, What kind of potential exposure is

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<v Speaker 1>here for the restaurant industry as well as the stocks

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<v Speaker 1>of the publicly traded food companies as well. So we'll

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<v Speaker 1>break all that down for you guys. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>share one story with you to kind of get you,

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<v Speaker 1>guys float into the topic. And one of the things

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<v Speaker 1>when you look at where these retaliatory tariffs have started,

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest issue has been all around China. Now, part

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<v Speaker 1>of this has been just the issue of the trade

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<v Speaker 1>and balance, and if you consider where China is against

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<v Speaker 1>the US in terms of trade imbalance. Remember the United

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<v Speaker 1>States holds twenty five percent of the world's GDP. That

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<v Speaker 1>is a significant impact on the industry. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to play out. I think for the

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<v Speaker 1>industry maybe not very good. This could be the worst

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<v Speaker 1>summer for restaurants in the history of restaurants sales. And

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<v Speaker 1>I will to break it down for you. This right

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<v Speaker 1>here is what I'm talking about. China slaps another eighty

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<v Speaker 1>four percent retaliatory tariff on Trump's US goods interpose in

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<v Speaker 1>response to Trump. Now, remember sure, this is eighty four

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<v Speaker 1>percent against because remember it was thirty four percent earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this week. Let me zoom it on that for you guys,

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<v Speaker 1>so you can kind of see a little bit closer

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on, because it started on thirty four percent,

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<v Speaker 1>that was on April tenth, and this of course has

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<v Speaker 1>now been a response from the one hundred and four

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<v Speaker 1>percent tariffs that came out of the administration. And of

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<v Speaker 1>course this impact not necessarily directly on where food is

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<v Speaker 1>going but and the rest our industry, but the rolling

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<v Speaker 1>impact on technology products, possibly some goods that make up

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<v Speaker 1>many of the services and areas that in the industry

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<v Speaker 1>really requires, I think is the factor that we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about here, and when if you look at this in

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<v Speaker 1>comparison to the rest of the industry. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>play this clip for you guys right here. Let me

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<v Speaker 1>go into it.

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<v Speaker 2>The markets. In just the last few minutes, China coming

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<v Speaker 2>out with these headlines saying it's the next step in

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<v Speaker 2>the trade war. It's going to be imposing retaliatory tariffs

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<v Speaker 2>of eighty four percent on US goods that starts on

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<v Speaker 2>April tenth. As a result, the futures sold off. You

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<v Speaker 2>could take a look if a tick by tick, the

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<v Speaker 2>Dow futures are now down by about the six hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and sixty points, SMP futures are off by seventy three,

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<v Speaker 2>the Nasdaq down by close to two hundred points. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>on a percentage basis, you are now talking about drops

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<v Speaker 2>of one point eight percent for the Dow, one percent

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<v Speaker 2>for the Nasdaq, and one and a half percent for

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<v Speaker 2>the S and P five hundred. It's playing out in

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<v Speaker 2>Europea equities as well. Take a look at those prices

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<v Speaker 2>a little weaker than we were before this. We were

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<v Speaker 2>down by about three percent for most of the major

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<v Speaker 2>averages at this point. The German DAX is down by

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<v Speaker 2>three point eight percent, so is our Italian stocks. In France,

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<v Speaker 2>the CAC is off by three quarters percent, and then

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<v Speaker 2>the foot See is down by about three point four percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Check out energy prices as well. You're seeing a steep

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<v Speaker 2>drop in energy prices once again this morning, a decline

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<v Speaker 2>of six percent from WTI. It's actually trading at below

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<v Speaker 2>fifty six dollars a barrel. Brent crude is below sixty

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<v Speaker 2>dollars a barrel at fifty nine to nineteen natural gal.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, I'm gonna stop it there, you guys can

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<v Speaker 1>kind of get a quick question or a quick look

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<v Speaker 1>at what I'm talking about. From the impact side of this,

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<v Speaker 1>this sift course is going to have reaching impact across

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<v Speaker 1>the industry, and I think the factor that we all

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<v Speaker 1>have to look at is how is this going to

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<v Speaker 1>impact other areas of the industry itself. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that is under concern right now now is even

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<v Speaker 1>the state associations. I've talked to several of the state

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<v Speaker 1>associations just in the last week. One of the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>issues is how long we can get on some of

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<v Speaker 1>these delays, Like for instance, Iowa right now, their restaurant's

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<v Speaker 1>bracing for higher costs on US terras. This is of

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<v Speaker 1>course threatening supply chain and some of them that they're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at. When you look at the supply chain side

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<v Speaker 1>of this, many of the analysts believe that the restaurants

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<v Speaker 1>have to reprice. And if we get into repricing in

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<v Speaker 1>a time in which we've already seen a large amount

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<v Speaker 1>of price taken from the restaurant industry, then the question

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<v Speaker 1>will be can the American consumer handle it. The National

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<v Speaker 1>Restaurant Association to acknowledge that these challenges now could represent

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<v Speaker 1>one of the worst eras in the restaurant industry, especially

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<v Speaker 1>as you start to look at things like Europe, because

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<v Speaker 1>remember Europe is a large importer, as as is China

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<v Speaker 1>or excuse me, Mexico and Canada for goods and services

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US, primarily especially on the produce side.

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<v Speaker 1>Then you take into a consideration what we'll see in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of the wine artists and spirits, that effect will

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<v Speaker 1>happen in of course casual dining on up. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the factors I think is when you look at what

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<v Speaker 1>markets win in this period of time, well many would

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<v Speaker 1>look to QSR. We'll talk about that in a second.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the other big issues right now is Chipotle.

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<v Speaker 1>Chipotle of course falling dramatically, and one of the things

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<v Speaker 1>with Chipotle that I think a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 1>considered with is can Chipotle's position continue to hold as

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<v Speaker 1>the leader? As we know, the stock has already faced

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty significant downturn. The biggest question on Chipotle is

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not the price can hold with the current

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<v Speaker 1>rate in which these price increases will affect American consumers.

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<v Speaker 1>I was on this show just a couple of weeks

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<v Speaker 1>ago with Sam Ocus from Nation Restaurant News, and he

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<v Speaker 1>kind of hit on that very point, was that the

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<v Speaker 1>issue when you look at price and whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be a factor going forward, which I

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<v Speaker 1>believe it will, the issue is how quickly can these

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<v Speaker 1>brands rebound, especially with consumer sentiment at the pace in

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<v Speaker 1>which it is right now, because many people would say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, we're potentially hitting an era of consumer sentiment. One,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the lowest it's ever been in quite some time.

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<v Speaker 1>And then if you look at the scenario of consumer

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<v Speaker 1>sentiment on restaurant brands within our own power indexes, which

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<v Speaker 1>is where we measure consumer sentiment, this again has reached

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<v Speaker 1>a low that goes all the way back to COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>We are literally just one or two points away from

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<v Speaker 1>possibly hitting the COVID low on overall sentiment in the

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<v Speaker 1>restaurant space. And if that is the case, then of

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<v Speaker 1>course we could see a pretty devastating summer going forward. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>other brands that I am concerned about, and I want

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<v Speaker 1>to go over to the charts real quick, and I'll

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<v Speaker 1>share this with you guys, because we can also chart

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<v Speaker 1>some things just so you can kind of see a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of where the charts are moving, and I

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<v Speaker 1>want to play on Tyson. We'll go ahead maximize that.

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<v Speaker 1>So what I'm looking at here, of course, is Tyson Foods.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at the amount of bleeding that Tyson

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<v Speaker 1>has had just in the period of time that has

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<v Speaker 1>been just the last week, coming down to currently trading

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<v Speaker 1>right now at fifty seven dollars, that's almost down ten percent.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is whether or not Tyson can hold on

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<v Speaker 1>with these tariffs impacting them. But if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the market, McDonald's somewhat holding sideways, this

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<v Speaker 1>of course is a little bit elong and but you

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<v Speaker 1>can see this situation right there Chapaul a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a different trend that we're seeing right now. Chipotle

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<v Speaker 1>consistently down. However, this may be the point of return

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<v Speaker 1>now for Chipotle, and that, of course, I think only

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<v Speaker 1>depends on whether or not the United States enters into

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<v Speaker 1>a recession. Cavo one of the few brands that has

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<v Speaker 1>been sideways after a deep decline going all the way

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<v Speaker 1>back into February. And then if you look at Apoyo

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<v Speaker 1>Loco another one also in decline. Almost everything Shakeshack also

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<v Speaker 1>in decline, Starbucks significantly in decline. Their customer account has

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<v Speaker 1>continued to fall over the last several months. The question

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<v Speaker 1>there with what's going on right now with Brian Nickel

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<v Speaker 1>is whether or not they can retain the current customer

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<v Speaker 1>base or can they do something around trying to win

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<v Speaker 1>new customers. That's where I think things are going to

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<v Speaker 1>get a little dicey right now. Wendy's also in decline.

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<v Speaker 1>Red Robin absolutely calling off a cliff here now, trading

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<v Speaker 1>at two sixty nine. If you look at where this

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<v Speaker 1>stock has been before, it is getting down to some

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<v Speaker 1>of its lowest measurements ever. Earnings on this one, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is the biggest issue right now. Their executives are selling

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<v Speaker 1>shares to cover their tax obligations. Also, inflation and tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>are scaring shoppers, and this is what most everybody is

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<v Speaker 1>facing right now. Let me know in the comments of

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not you guys think that we are going

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to see these pressures moving into the space

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<v Speaker 1>on tariffs and the impact on the restaurant industry, because

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is something that you have to factor

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<v Speaker 1>in in your strategies of how you're building your brand

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<v Speaker 1>and also how are you growing right now? This could

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<v Speaker 1>open up several new areas. One of course, is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be real estate options that may end up flowing

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<v Speaker 1>into the market. If this becomes a very slow summer,

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<v Speaker 1>then the opportunity going to the next level for restaurant

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<v Speaker 1>operators could be very similar to two thousand and eight,

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<v Speaker 1>like it was in fast casual and you look at

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<v Speaker 1>that the great financial crisis in two thousand and eight,

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<v Speaker 1>many people thought the restaurant industry was going to see

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty much a nuclear winter, but instead what we

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<v Speaker 1>saw was a rebirth or a birth i should say,

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<v Speaker 1>of the fast casual category that made that sector grow

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<v Speaker 1>so much. Now QSR is going to be the winner here.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe McDonald's is the big winner here. Overall, Chipotle

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<v Speaker 1>will possibly come back into a position. Starbucks, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>is going to continue to hold a downward trend for

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<v Speaker 1>quite some time. And as we start to look at

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<v Speaker 1>other sectors, emerging brands and also businesses that are out

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<v Speaker 1>there that are just now getting into growth parameters of

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<v Speaker 1>their business in terms of both tech companies and also

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<v Speaker 1>emerging brands from the restaurant side, remember that you guys

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<v Speaker 1>can reach out to over on saver FM, which is

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<v Speaker 1>where you can catch this podcast and many more. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the things that we do over there that you

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<v Speaker 1>may not be aware at Saver Capital is we of

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<v Speaker 1>course are now investing heavily, so go over to our

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<v Speaker 1>Saver Capital and Advisory page. You guys, of course can

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<v Speaker 1>seek out advisory or if you're an emerging brand in

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<v Speaker 1>fast casual, this could be a section for you to

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<v Speaker 1>jump into, and that is if you're looking for cattle

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<v Speaker 1>or a capital or capital advisory. Another thing I want

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<v Speaker 1>you to check out is some of the other podcasts

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<v Speaker 1>because we have a slew of great podcasts that you

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<v Speaker 1>guys can check out, Restaurant Mastermids which comes out every Thursday,

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<v Speaker 1>Catering Cage on Tuesdays, and also Fast Casual Nation on Wednesdays,

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<v Speaker 1>So make sure and check those out. We've got a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of growth in the podcast side of things, the

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<v Speaker 1>Restaurant Report. I love to get your insights on where

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<v Speaker 1>you guys think this is going. You can always hit

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<v Speaker 1>me up on Twitter, which is just app Paul Barron

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<v Speaker 1>I talk a lot about finance and growth of this

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<v Speaker 1>market along with other tech and blockchain markets out there.

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<v Speaker 1>To make sure and follow me over on x and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll catch you next week, right here on the restaurant report.