Speaker 1: One your life. Welcome to the best sports betting show
on the planet. This is Wager Talk Today. I am
your host, Andy Lang. It is Monday. I'm optimistic about
a great week. I woke up this morning life just
felt really good. So we're kicking off a brand new week.
We're gonna get started with MLB. We're gonna look to
the Hall of Fame game in the NFL, and of
course Johnny is gonna join us with the Steam Report.
We're gonna start with the Steam Report. Crack Man's gonna
join us talk a little MLB prop that he likes,
and then we're gonna do all around the World, and
Steve Merril's gonna join us talk Cubs and the Brewers
and the Hall of Fame look Ahead. And then I
went to the Offspring concert on Saturday, and I discovered
the single greatest thing that a local business could ever
do for a concert. It's the most it's most genius
idea I have ever heard of for a concert. I
cannot wait to tell you guys, we'll do that at
the very end. So I hope everyone had a great weekend.
Thanks for joining us. To see you guys joining us
in the chat already, let's get started with Giohnny. While
we're doing that, please hit that like button and ay
shout out we Gianni. We crossed two hundred and ten
thousand subscribers over the weekend. Let's go, let's let's thank
you to the audience. Man appreciate you guys. Welcome to
the wager Talk YouTube family. So how you doing this Monday, Gianni.
Speaker 2: I'm coming off a bad week. Bad week, Brian, I'm
right there with you, brother, terrible week, me too. And
the last two weeks it crushed me. I was up
and down the entire year, like up twenty units, down,
five units, up, fifteen units, like, just hadn't have that
big run. But the last two weeks I've gotten absolutely crushed.
So it's just going back to the grind.
Speaker 3: Bro.
Speaker 2: I tell you when I win, tell you when I lose.
This is the job. This is one of those runs
of negative variants that you have to deal with. And
the flip side of that coin is you know what's
coming the positive side, Like even if you're a negative
VV better after a bad run, you expect a little
regression and progression towards the me like, so that's the
good thing and a lot of recreational betters. That's the
mistake they made. They jump off winning betters that have
information when they're cold, and they follow losing betters when
they're hot. When you know, like the negative B be
better is not going to be able to sustain that
win streak, just like the plus ev better is not
going to continue losing, Like that's going to flip. But
it's just so hard to make yourself do it. It's
kind of like buying stock when everyone's running out of
the burning building for you to run in. You know,
when all the press is negative, when everyone's saying Bitcoin's
going to zero, crypto's being outlawed. You know I went
through that in twenty twenty. You know, I had amassed
all this crypto and all I was getting was nothing
but negativity with the FTX collapse, with this collapse, and
this is the end of crypto, and you're sitting there panicking,
like what do you do? But if you got into
something with like having studied it and understand it, then
you don't sweat it. And with me with betting, like
I've done this long enough now that I know how
it ends, Like I know this is all going to
be part of the journey. I've done this journey so
many times where you have to overcome those negative band runs.
You can't over bet your edge so you don't get buried,
and you survive them and let your edge materialize. It's
like rinse, repeat, over and over and over again. But
it's easy to say and harm to do, and it
took me a long time to get there. So now
that I am there again, I'm not happy I lost
the last two weeks, but I bet size in a
way which allows me to wake up this morning with
a positive outlook, like do the job, do the job,
trust in the work, trust in the mat. When the
dust settles, you know the end result. It's a long war, brother,
with a bunch of battle between You're going to lose
some battles. But if you're winning the war, if you
zoom out and you have positive lifetime earnings, you're on
the right road. That's all you could do.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I had two really great weeks in
a row and then a terrible week last week. I'm
with you, and I just want to appreciate everyone in
the chat. Thank you for sharing. Oh I had a
rough week. We can talk about this stuff on the show.
This is a safe space. We can talk about wins
and we can talk about losses because it's all part
of the business, that's part of the industry, and it's
part of the job that we chose. So we will.
Let's be John, You're going to tell you when we're
up and when we're down. But thank you Bill for
sharing that with us. Brian, thank you for sharing that.
And as long as we keep doing what we're doing,
we have the correct systems in place. We know that
the long term we're gonna be okay, and that the
rough stretches and the speed bumps are just you know,
part of the ride. They suck. It's terrible, depressed, you
know when it happens, but you know, we get back
to it. So let's talk some positivity. Let's talk about
some steam. What do we got today? I know we
got NBA in a little bit of WNBA, A couple.
Speaker 2: Totals in WNBA under h a half one ffty nine
on Seattle, Connecticut and the New York Dallas that got
away from me over one sixty seven all the way
to one seventy that moved pretty significantly, pretty co quickly
as well. And both those totals seem to be at
least opposite public Leans. Again, WNBA doesn't get heavily bet
but with little recreational bet and money that I do
see in the sheet is opposite both those totals. So
under in Seattle, Connecticut over in New York Dallas seems
to be sharp versus square on those games.
Speaker 1: A couple just made real quick Gianni, I'll jumping on
that liberty dealing with injuries. You got Stewart out, They
got to fit a lot of people out. Three people
already ruled out for tonight, So those injuries are probably
what's affecting that line.
Speaker 2: Keep going, yeah, yeah, no, no good stuff. A couple
of baseball totals slower on the sides, and again you
know there's a lot of manipulation there, and with the
numbers going, you probably don't want to chase the bat
number in total, especially around those key seven to nine
and elevens. With that out of the way, nine fifty
two Cincinnati plus one fifty nine to fifty three, Cubbies
minus one oh five nine to sixty San Francisco at
minus one twenty nine two, Baltimore at even money nine
to sixty four Yankees minus one fifteen, good, minus one
twenty and under nine up the minus one twenty five,
Boston at plus money, all the way down to even
Athletics at plus money and down to even with the
over ten, up the minus one twenty five, and finally
Atlanta when it got when it dropped, money came in
on the dog on that opener line drop and one
of the guys I work with, they came in. They
laid the one fifty one to fifty five on Atlanta.
That's why that line's moving back up now. Where I
saw multiple confirmation was on four signs Cubs, Baltimore Yankees,
Atlanta Young's Cubs, Baltimore Yankees, Atlanta, and then the under
in the Yankees saw some confirmation there where ultiple groups
on the same side. So those seem a little bit
stronger and even opposite the public. I think in three
or four of those.
Speaker 1: Did you said you say money came in on Baltimore, Yeah, Baltimore,
even Baltimore. That's an interesting one. Uh, Basset going for
Toronto much lower e r A E Flyn going for Baltimore.
That's a really interesting one. Do you expect buyback on
Toronto as the day moves on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's one sided money on Toronto even from
the betting public. You look at Baltimore again, you know
Baltimore's they're both these teams are pretty much where they
should be. I think Toronto's playing a little bob expectations.
Remember when the season's over, it's Monday, I get my
guys projections. He has Toronto winning over only fifty six
point eight So I think it's the five too point
five to six point eight percent of their games. So
you know, obviously they're they're above that, so expect the
little regression on Toronto. Uh So it may be a
fade of Toronto more than a bet on Baltimore in
this spot. But they've kind of been splitting. If you
look at the season series even last year, these two
teams kind of been splitting win one, lose one. They've
alternated wins and losses. I think over the last ten,
one wins game one, the other game two game. It's
going back and forth. So Toronto won the last game
on So it looks like in Baltimore's turns and losses
over the last ten, it's what you called Baltimore's turn
to get at WU.
Speaker 1: Well, Duffel says, Efflin is awful. So that's that's all.
Speaker 2: That's almost the sixty r A this late season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes that's all the analysis you need is starting.
Speaker 2: But he's coming off a good game, one of his
better games. Actually.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: Any of the totals kind of jump out, jump out
at you that you saw money come in on that
was surprising. Some load totals today. Seven and a half, Yeah, there.
Speaker 2: Are some low totals. The undering the Yankees game, you know,
coming now, I think it's eight and a half pretty
much everywhere. I don't trust that. I mean under nine,
I understand, but I couldn't go under eight and a
half in that game. Again, you look at the Yankees
been putting up some runs of late. Tampa hasn't been
able to score. But I think it is the game
they should be able to get some runs up there.
You don't know much all this what only the third
start for Schlitter, So they let him go ninety pitches
last time. I don't know if they're gonna let him
do that in five innings he went. So I like
the under a little bit, but I couldn't go under
eight and a half. And the over in athletics. That
kind of makes sense to me. I see the public
betting that one as well over that ten. Yeah, I
lean over. I like the totals, but the numbers gone.
Some of the numbers are gone.
Speaker 1: And real quick before we let you go, can you
talk to the distinction between nip and confirmation on some
of these numbers when you mention those terms manipulation and confirmation, what's.
Speaker 2: The difference confirmations? When I look, what I look for
is when I see a side get hit and it
goes into multiple accounts from different groups that I hand
that accounts to, you know what I mean, then they
all more or less they're trying to get a good
number on that side. When it's like, you know, if
you're working with three different groups and only ones betting aside,
you don't know if they gave someone else the opposite
side and they're trying to scalp it or they're you
know what I mean, or if it's a or they're
trying the middle a play or scalp a side or something.
But when you get multiple groups on the same side,
that's never the case, you know, I mean, that's that's
just trying to get a number before it's gone. But
with individual moves, again, there's if you have the power
to move the market, why would he you know what
I mean? But again, a lot of these guys are
even working scale. Now it's gonna get harder with the
with the new luw uh the taxing. But I got
that's what you got to worry about with the money
lines because there's just so many scalping opportunities. Just click
go to odds Logic or even the wager talk free
on screen and just click one of the matchups and
you're going to see the line move up and down
on almost every game. Where if you get out ahead
of the market, you could set up nice scalps more
or less without much risk, if you could just determine
which way the line's going to move, not even having
a handicap in the game. Uh So, you know you
got to be aware of that because again baseball is
one of those sports where the limits just aren't that big.
It doesn't take a ton of money to move a line,
you know what I mean. Like moving a Monday night
football line is very hard. Moving a Sunday night Baseball
line not that hard, even though you know primetime game
very different landscapes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also I.
Speaker 2: Lost five percent. I lost my five percent in UFC
back to back five percent losses. Again, I'll tell you
when I win with those, tell you when I lose.
And the bottom line again, I don't make excuses, but
I grade my stuff a lot of times on how
did I do? Did I did? I beat the market?
And in both cases that was like, that's what I did.
I was able to get down on Amanda Eboss with
subscribers at minus one forty five. She was minus two
hundred minus two five at bet on line when that fight,
you know, the day of the fight, hour before the fight,
I can't do better than that, you know, And the
same thing the week prior getting in on like an
even money that goes off at minus one sixty, you
have a huge edge. When that's the case, Unfortunately, you're
going to lose a lot of good bets that you place.
But when in doubt, you zoom out and the numbers
never lie. And in MMA, over the last three hundred
and sixty five days, I'm up thirty units and the
twenty two percent ROI I've given out twenty seven five
percents in UFC MMA over the last twelve months, so
twenty seven of those about what two two and a
half per month and thirty units of profit and twenty
two percent ROI. So long term, getting that kind of
value is going to make us profitable. But unfortunately, fight
by fight there's going to be a lot of randomness
that we can't control. But you keep placing those good bets.
When the dust settles, you should find yourself nicely ahead.
Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely, We'll keep monitoring everything this week. So Johnny,
Tellveron what you have up on Monday for clients.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that the NFL college football package is up. It's
combined all futures you get in one package. In the
past I would separate those, but I put them together
because the volume is lower. There's about nine of them
in there. There's five college football for NFL with a
five percent big move and you know, will team make
the playoffs or not? A couple of those props as well.
Already released an MMA play for Saturday, and I'll have
the ball up within the next thirty minutes. I like
the baseball cart today, just waiting for a little bit
more confirmation before we fire. So back to the Brian
man excited about the opportunity ahead and knock down, try
to win back last two weeks.
Speaker 1: That's it's gonna be a great week. It's gonna be
a great week, Johnny. I woke up this morning and
I had water in the ceiling and I was like,
oh great, here we go. And then it turned out
it was nothing. It was a clog gutter, and I
was like, I was like, normally water in the ceiling
is a nightmare. But we fixed it immediately. So I'm like, Okay,
this week's gonna be great.
Speaker 2: This this is thank you Mitchell Brothers, thank you brother
thank you. Justin Yeah, well you got crack coming up
today too. I mean, it's a good it's gonna be
a great day. Nothing but great information here wager talk
and Monday's nothing but opportunities. Baby, last week is over.
You gotta settle this morning and.
Speaker 3: Crypto wherever you owe.
Speaker 2: That's that's what I had to do this morning, send out,
send out a little bitcoin and back to work.
Speaker 1: By the way, uh you you and I definitely called
it XRP when it spiked. You see, it's all it's
all the way down to three sixteen, so you know,
don't buy it at the height. Wait, it's almost by
time with that one.
Speaker 2: So wait five ten years. You know where it's going.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely, Thanks Giotny. Let's have a great budday.
Speaker 2: Let's have a great love you guys. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Oh Johnny the Greek gets us off started. Let's bring
in crack and uh, let's just get right into it.
We got a great actually crack. We got a question
here from Bill. I want to I'll get to your
MLB prop here in a bit, but uh, Bill's question, Uh,
last week I wasn't running good, picked up the fact
I wasn't, which is easy to do, and slowed my
bets down a bit. Is that the right thing to do? So, okay,
you're running cold? Do you slow down the bets? Do
you slow down the unit sides? Crack? What happens when
you run into a little bit of a cold stretch.
Speaker 3: Well, this guy is obviously in a stute gambler, because
most gamblers wouldn't even think like that. They actually up
their bets and try to get out. And it's a
natural human chemistry, it's our human condition, it's the human makeup.
We just want to get back to even And so
for Bill to actually even think that kind of mindset.
It's absolutely correct. And you know, I was gonna talk
about that at the end of this, but I'll talk
about that now since this question actually has something to
do with it. So, of course, if you're losing money
and you're betting that percentage of bankroll, that means your
bet size is going to go down, but usually gets
adjusted week by week, not day by day. However, if
you're a student enough like this person is to know
he's had a bad couple of days, well right in
the middle of the week. Yes, if you're betting two
hundred dollars a play, now you'll lower it down to
one hundred and fifty a play, one hundred and seventy
a play. You know, it all goes by a percentage
of bankroll. I know. It's an old fashioned thing, and
everyone hears it, and most people do not adhere to
it because it's not a it's not something that's fun
to do. It's not it's not fun to have bankroll
management and worry about each each two percent I have it.
I have a you know, I have a ten thousand
dollars bank Oh, I'm supposed to bet two hundred dollars
on this, and then when your bank row goes grows
to ten twelve thousand. Well, now you're supposed to bet
two forty on this, So it's not fun, but it's
the only way to success if you're serious about this. Now,
if you're like my buddies that I grew up with
back Easton in New York, New Jersey, they don't care.
It doesn't matter everything's in action. Even though they're around
me all these years, they know thirty years successful betting sports.
They don't care. They want to do what they want
to do. It's actually a natural tendency. Like I said earlier,
my buddies come out from arch Madness and Andy, they're
come out with five thousand. They're firing five hundred or
one thousand a game, and and if they lose, they
go to the credit cards. And then Western Union over
at the Barbary Coat. Well, it's no longer a Barbary
Coast over at that casino. That's now it was Bills
Barbary Coast. It's a great casino, but that that was
the original Western Union. In the back of that casino,
it's Oh boy, can't think the name of the scene.
Don't talk about the con not the Conrad Cromwell, The Cromwell,
so that is one of the western unions in town.
And when I was a kid first coming to Vegas
like an idiot in the early nineties, yeah, I was
with but my friends haven't changed. It's it's that New
York mentality, that Philly, that in Boston, whatever, Cleveland, Pittsburgh.
This gamble was everywhere now and it's almost like closet gambling.
You're gambling with a ticket where you're gambling on an app,
no one knows anything, and you're just reloading. You don't
want to let your friends know. Especially Bill Krackenberg. You
know that you're betting ten twenty percent of your bank
roll in one game, so two to three percent, I
have no problem. Well you're even betting something a little hot,
like I have preseason games coming up. I have no
problem with you betting literally five percent of your bank
will And I never ever said that on any show ever.
I just know that the preseason is the stone cold nuts.
I mean, if it's not, then then over Tokyo it's over.
But yeah, I've been doing pre season for years, and
you have to get ahead of the line. You have
to be you have to have your alerts on. You
have to have your your notifications on and preseasons has
been great, NFL props have been great. So but anyway,
going back to that, bank roll management very good, very smart,
and don't get caught up in the I'll tell you
something to don't get caught up in the closet gambling.
And when I say about that that closet gambling betting
live on your app, you just start firing. And you
know it's hard to stop firing during the game. So
the Bills get the first touchdown and you say, oh
my god, I knew I should have bet the Bills
pre flop. I knew this, and you start betting. Well, Also,
the bookmaker knows which way you're betting. They know you're
betting the Bills over New England. They know you're betting
which way you're betting, So already you're gonna pay a
little bit of a tax on those type of bets.
Just just be aware. Have multiple outs very important. Have
multiple outs. So if you come to town here and you
want to stay at the trip at the strip, let's
say you miss Mirage property MGM Mirage, So not only
will you have the bet MGM app, you should have
other apps like stations like like the Coast casinos, the
slower moving apps have multiple apps open so you could
see the difference in lines. Line shopping means everything, I know.
Even if you're coming in with a couple thousand, big deal.
So you throw eight hundred dollars in three apps, I'm
telling you those half a points. And by the way,
you will get half a points even on NFL here
day of the game because of the square public they're
dealing to at the stations, even at the win. I
know one thing. I bet every single Sunday. I don't
recommend betting game time close to game, but I'll tell
you every single Sunday I will have bets in at
the win because every single Sunday during the season, even
the manager over there, Doug. So I have to move.
I got big players that are playing in the casino
come up to the counter. They want to bet three
hundred thousand on the game. I have to get some
action on both sides. I move extra half a point,
so low hanging fruit at the win on Sundays stations,
even though I'm not allowed to play, I'd thrown on
for winning. But you guys will be able to play
while you're here or for a long period of time.
I was just betting max bets and I beat them
at a peanuts really a twelve grand or seven grand
I think Station seven grand, Coast twelve grand.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you touched on something that was so interesting. This
is why I don't bet. I don't live bet like
NFL or NBA or something unless I have something great
at the end of the game. Because when I used
to do it, I wouldn't end up with one live
bet on the game. I'd end up with like six
or seven. And You're like, this is crazy, this is insane.
That's I think that's the big trip with live betting
some of those games. So I'm a UFC Live Better
and that's it, and.
Speaker 3: Think you said the right thing. Guess what, even Bill
Kackenberger got caught up in it. When I first came.
I was at the end casino over at Caanther Gaming.
They had the first live gaming screen, and you're there
bet and it wasn't even that you couldn't even do
it on your hand, on your bot, on your computer.
You had to do it on their screens, which they
all had the screens. Andy, You're right, you get caught
up in the live waging. Now of course I don't
do it now. That was just the first couple of weeks.
I was like, wow, I got caught up in the
live wagering, and I just I was betting against the
public on a game. But it didn't matter. I was betting.
I was over betting for a new thing to me.
And of course, now here we are, you know a
dozen years later, that's not happening. But it's easy to
get caught up with live wavering. By the way, you're
paying double the juice on live waverdring or maybe more.
I noticed some spots that are charge on one twenty each,
Like I said, on live wave drink, you're paying at
least one fifteen each. I haven't really found a spot
that's minus one ten both ways like it is pre flop.
So just to know you're playing, you're paying more money
and you're playing, why they have an edge on you.
That's right. I know these companies don't let me saying this,
but I'm gonna tell you right now. Only bet doing
commercials because you have a seven to ten second TV delay.
Now you have the frequent speet delay that's going into
the TeV listen. Overall, you probably have a thirty second
delay in some spots. So literally, unless you have that
AM frequently that am F which I we had at
one time, you really have to be careful betting lives
during the game because I'm not saying nobody's cheating, but
I'm not saying nobody's not.
Speaker 1: Well, I'll add to that. So UFC we do a
live show where we watched the UFC event well on
our One of our friends was at a UFC event
and we had him tell us where we were at
in the fight based on what we were seeing. We
were fifty seconds behind. We were fifty seconds behind. So
when you're looking at the live lines, there's fifty seconds
of fighting action that you haven't seen. So we we
we do the same thing. You got to wait until
in between rounds uh to make those live bets just
because you have no idea you're getting ready to happen.
Speaker 3: Of worms. Here to tell you right now what it's called.
It's called court siding. So these people go to games,
they're betting court siding, and they're betting the apps, trying
to beat the apps because they're live at the game,
live at the thing listen, a lot of guys are
betting with their locals. You know, the PPH accounts, the
per Head accounts that that Gihanny just talked about their
court siding. I'll tell you what if the local guys
knew that they were cheating betting court siding because they
had the advantage over the Oh boy, I don't know,
many years ago you wind up in the trunk out
here in Las Vegas. But uh it happened. Then these
computer nerds are saying, I'm not doing nothing wrong. What
am I doing wrong? I'm just wrong better you know,
they just don't see what they're doing. But anyway, I've
talked enough about this stuff.
Speaker 1: Sorry, no, it's it's important. No, this is important, like
like getting this information out about live betting. It's really
really dangerous. I like, I remember when I first I
first started doing live betting. One game, I was like,
I have twelve units all of a sudden on this random,
blank NFL game, just live bets.
Speaker 3: It was.
Speaker 1: It was madness. So let's just an MLB prop for today.
You and I love our props, So which prop do
you have circled for today?
Speaker 3: Baseball? Let's go to the Yankees Cam slidder over strikeouts
over four and a half minus one thirty five props
have been profitable. That's like my bread and Butter's prop.
So I'm gonna stick with one of those. Yanks have
really been struggling and need to need to get a
really good outing from one of their best pitcher prospects. Here.
Cam had great stuff in his first two addings and
goes up against a Raise lineup today that has the
ten highest width rate. The Rays have also been one
of the worst strikeout teams since the All Star Break.
I think Cam can go over this number today pretty easy.
As always. It goes five plus innings over his strikeouts
there four and a half minus one thirty five.
Speaker 1: Love it, Love it, Bill, you mentioned preseason. We have
a preseason special that is up. It's only sixty nine dollars.
It's regularly priced at ninety nine dollars. So tell everyone
why you love preseason so much.
Speaker 3: Oh, preseason is real, simple people. Some people say, oh
my god, you're a degenerate. You've got pleased preseason. Yeah, okay,
I have ruined book book makers betting preseason over the years.
They they're hiding under the beds Monday morning, so anyway,
preseason is real simple. We're up on our socials. We
have a guy that just reads nothing but socials and
and knows every single insider of the team. They know
those beat reporters that that work for the teams. They
just follow that stuff. It's hard for a lot of
people to do. You have to know the little uh
nuances and and then you have to know every single
person UH to follow. But there's a lot of a
lot of tips out there in social media that that
we that we use for to get our leads. It's
called our leads to be to be real blunt. I've
never had a losing preseason and and uh you really
shouldn't based on the information that that's out there that
we get. So preseason is great. Look forward to the
NFL season. NFL props they've been great. Player props been great.
They're available at all the sportsbooks, FanDuel, DraftKings, Bet, MGM, Caesars,
they all have the ones that are and I give
out of obtainable lines, which is very important. That's something
I I you know, I hate when when when you
know sometimes a line, you have to get to it first.
You have to have your notifications on you have to
have your your notifications on that were notifying you that
we're going to have a play, because in preseason you
only have a minute, literally have a minute that the
bet however, but you get get your your apps ready
and fire there. But as far as the props go,
you have time there. It's a very obtainable line and
the props props have been great, so look forward to it.
I have some stuff up right now there. There's a
baseball game up there today. But yeah, those packages I
was looking over myself. The packages we have are you know,
I think it's eight ninety nine for college football, n
NFL throughout the seasons at the Super Bowl eight ninety nine.
That's unbelievable. Like I said, I've been charging five hundred
a month for that for for years for the for
the football. So we got some really good deals up there.
On way you're talking, I'll look forward to talking to
you guys next week.
Speaker 1: Thanks Bill, have a great week. Thank you so much.
Great conversation about live betting. Great conversation about live betting,
something everyone needs to understand. Yeah, we mentioned the preseason special.
It's regularly priced at ninety nine, but only sixty nine dollars,
and they gets you all preseason games released from the
Hall of Fame game on Thursday, July thirty first, all
the way to the preseason finale, even five percent best bets.
If we have those in preseason, those are thirty five
bucks each. So if you're interested in preseason, get NFL
season started early, you can take advantage only sixty nine dollars,
really really good discount. Regularly priced at ninety nine dollars
gets you three or four weeks of NFL preseason, So
make sure you lock that in. Pick Bill, pick Steve Merrill,
pick anybody that does NFL preseason, and we'll get you
started for the regular season. Let's go all around the
world here. We got a pretty good slate here of games.
Start with. We had two baseball plays. Let's go to
the Marlins and the Cardinals. We'll do a team total
over three and a half. I like this one, just missed.
The card Marlins had scored over this in two out
of three games at the Brewers the last series. Blade
has been awful the last three starts fifteen point two
innings and he's given up seventeen earned runs. And the
Cardinals is a team have given up four more runs
in seven out of eleven games since the All Star break,
so I think this line should be closer to four
and a half, not three and a half. So it's
a little bit juice to the over, but I think
it's worth it. Kevin Dolan has a YUEFA Champions League
play Hammeron at Dynamo. We're looking at under three point
twenty five in regulation. Hammeron has shutouts in five of
the last seven road games and died about three to
zher lead from the first legue complete domination. Expect them
to not push the pace. They'll play ball control and
they're gonna play some strong defense, so we expect the
low scoring game in that one, and then the Rays
at the Yankees like the Rays plus one third teen
Rasmusen for the race is a two point nine to
three e er twenty starts. Schlitler making third start where
he's allowed five runs and ten innings and since June.
Interesting stat from Jeff Michaels since June. Yankees last in
profit in playing series openers, so they do not get
off to a good start in the series openers and
getting a plus one thirteen on the race. All right,
let's bring in good friend Steve Merrill, Steve I cashed
a NASCAR bed in spectacular fashion. Alex Bowman, we had
him top ten and he was like back in nineteenth
on the last restart and a bunch of guys ran
out of gas and he ended up ninth. Wow, it
was like those never work out for us. But I
was thinking of you because I was at the brickyard,
was right down the street.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's that's a flat track. And the
first thing I think of his Pocono. We've seen that
happen over the years at Pocono, which is kind of
a similar type of track.
Speaker 1: Did you go to the race, God, No, it's like
ninety five degrees.
Speaker 3: You had to be.
Speaker 1: It's crazy to go out to that track. It's it's
seriously ten degrees hotter inside the track. Those it's so big,
those the metal seats and stuff. It's unbearable out there.
I went one time and I was like, listen, I
love NASCAR, but I'm never going to my home track again.
It's a it's a long race. It's just it's it's really.
Speaker 4: Well, I'm debating Andy because just this week I got
invited next month August. So some of my buddies are
going to the Richmond Race. I think it's August sixteenth.
It's a Saturday night. They've only got the one event now.
It used to be May and September. I went for
playing like two thousand and one to maybe twenty seventeen.
I went every year for like sixteenth straight years. I
don't think I've been since nineteen. I haven't been since
since COVID. But apparently the Corner four now is like
party corner and it's a stand like twenty five dollars tickets.
You stand the whole time with tables and I don't know,
I'm thinking about it, but like you said, even the
Richmond Race, it's a short track, but like you got,
LA's two hundred to three fifty get pretty dull. I
usually start walking around looking for the cheese steaks stand
underneath the shaded under course. As you're talking about, zif
it's night race, so it's a little bit better.
Speaker 1: Well that okay, that's better. That's better. Now they just
run ours in the middle of the day, in the
middle of the month.
Speaker 4: I did Vegas back in February of eight and that
was February, but it was middle to day there's no shade.
Second row sound like great seats, right, I was covered
with like Robert soot like by the end of the race.
And that's the story I always tell, and we've heard
you've heard this before, that that track did not allow
to bring beverages in Richmond always allows it. So literally
at noon noon in Vegas, there was like thousands of
cases of unopened beer stacked at the entrance. It was
one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen. So
crazy all the cities that don't allow to bring out
all into the racetrack Vegas, Vegas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely so. All right, well, Steve, we got a
couple of things to go over when you get your
look at the NFL Hall of Fame. I want to
talk Cubs and Brewers, but Jave asked about the Mets
and Padres. You're going to be doing a solo video
on this one coming up, correct.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll tease this where we're gonna give a free
play in the Cubs Brewers game in a moment. Also
NFL preseason play for this Thursday. But I am actually
going to do a solo video right after the show
for this Mets Padres game. And Dylan C. Seven a
rough season, but so is Manta. So I'll let you
know what I'm doing with that one. Do we look over?
Do I look at a side all? A free play
Mets Padres solo video here on wager Talk TV. So
click subscribe and click that bell for an instant alert
so you don't miss out.
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk Cubs and Brewers. Two pitchers that are
not struggling this year. Boyd right the Cubs, Misraowski for Brewers.
I mean, these guys, you got a two point two
ERA and a two point four to five ERA over under?
Speaker 3: Is it eight?
Speaker 1: Surely that's moving down to seven and a half at
some point. Basically, straight pick them Cubs, a little bit
of juice to the favorite. How do you break down
this game?
Speaker 4: Misserowski the controversial All Star selection for the Brewers the
twenty two He's either twenty two to twenty three year old,
six foot seven a buck ninety five. Sounds like an
NBA player six seven one ninety five, so he obviously
has no power. Well, he throws like one oh two consistently,
just toe. He'd only made five major league starts, never
made a start until June twelfth, and he made the
All Star Game. But if you look at the innings pitch,
they've been pretty caugh careful with Jacob this year. He
has not gone past the sixth inning in any of
his six starts so far. He went only three or a
quarter three and a two thirds of an inning the
other night against the Mariners his only starts since the break,
but really good numbers overall, two point four to five
e RA. He had solid minor league numbers as well.
Power pitcher, and obviously you know this. This Cubs team
has not seen him before since he's only been in
the league for about a month. So I do think
he'll continue to have some success, and you would expect
with two really good pitchers on the mount. Matthew Boyd
going for the Cubs. Boy's got a two point two
are e RA, a one point zero e RA his
last seven starts. Wow, since mid June, even better than Misarowski.
You'd think this is maybe a six and a half
a six. No, we got an eight. And this game's
not in Wrigley, it's in Milwaukee, so we got an
eight on this one. As I speak, we're starting to
see some seven and a half's pop out there. But
at eight or more. I like the under here seems
a little obvious. Both offenses and mediocre form two dominant pitchers.
But even if we get one of them having a
good outing, should stay under the total. Now, if you're
worried about both of them having a pitch, well, the
one thing you could always do is look at the
team total both at three and a half to the over.
So if either one of the team totals stay under
three and a half at plus money, you're making some money.
So either game under eight or if you're only getting
a seven and a half, then I would look at
both team totals under three and a half plus money.
I think at least one of those hits.
Speaker 1: Like it.
Speaker 3: I like it.
Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on this Hall of Fame game?
Look ahead? I mean, what do we do with this
Hall of Fame game? I know everyone wants to get
a little action down on it. Over under thirty three
for the Chargers and the Lions. I know traditionally this
is a big time under. What's your opening thoughts?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting, Nanny, because you always hear the defenses
are ahead of the offenses early in the season. It
makes a lot of sense because it's easier to go
out there just play smash mount football, you know, and
odd is you know, working in new players, new quarterbacks,
new receivers, everything, it's a little tougher and you do
see very low totals. Obviously in an NFL regular season game,
unless it's a blizzard with fog, we're not going to
see a total of thirty three. But that's being priced
into the line. So what I like to look at
is key numbers. And when I was growing up back
in the nineties as a young handicapper, twenty nine years
and know, by the way, this August next month coming
up will be my twenty ninth anniversary as a full
time professional handicappers. I've been doing this for a while,
and back in the nineties it was about trying to
get the information, you know, digging for hours on the
new thing called the Internet to try to find the
quarterback rotations. Now it takes me about two seconds to
find out what both teams intend on doing. So you
got to dig a little bit deeper and kind of
read between the lines and figure out how to use
that information. So we know the quarterback rotations, we know
neither team is going to play their starters at all,
and we also have all the coaching data. These are
two fiery coaches, Dan Campbell and Jim Harball. You would
expect them to be too fired up coaches, always trying
to win. Well, They're both one and three against the
spread in Week one of their coaching careers in the preseason.
Harball is ten and six overall, but he's just one
in three in week one. Campbell's just three six and
one overall. So neither one's really made a huge effort
to win, especially in week one when all the backups
are out there. Lion's coming off a monster season. Can't
imagine they're looking to make a statement either. So let's
look at the quarterback rotation, which is always so important.
Justin Herbert not going to play. Probably Taylor Heneke the backup,
veteran backup old Dominion University, not my Washington Commanders, Atlanta
Falcons recently NFL starter for several years with teams playoff starter.
Don't expect him to go probably much either, which I
think Trey Lance will get the majority of the work.
Is a three guy. But then the real question mark
is dj Ukulele. As I like to call him out
a Clemson, he was so down at times in college football.
He's the real X factor now the Lions. Jared Goff
obviously doesn't need to play. Hender Hooker from Virginia Tech.
And then Kyle Allen also in the hender Hooker. Of course,
Tennessee is where he was sec Offensive Player of the Year.
After that, Kyle Allen the veteran quarterback fighting for the
two to three spot. So we do have two teams
here with some backups that are fighting for kind of
that backup secondary spot between two, you know, all pro
proven starters. So I like the fact we got a
little bit of a quarterback competition with both teams. That
gets me leaning towards the over, even though it is
a Week one game. And I talked about key numbers
back in the nineties, thirty seven forty one were key
numbers in regular season games. It's just the metrics of
scoring a lot of games get you there. Twenty to seventeen,
thirty one to ten, twenty one to twenty gets you
to forty one. Thirty seven is very key. We don't
talk about that a lot anymore in the modern NFL,
where everything's in the mid forties or fifties, but in
the preseason thirty seven is still king. In fact, over
the last fifteen years, if you've blindly played all games
that have totals of thirty seven or less over, you've
hit almost sixty percent with the over. If you've blindly
played all thirty seven and a halves or more under,
you've hit like fifty six percent. So it really is
a key number. And at thirty three, I think it's
priced a little low considering there's a quarterback competition with
both teams will take a litle bit of a lean
over thirty three in the Hall of Fame game. And
this is this Thursday night, July thirty first football is here.
Speaker 1: Unbelievable. I can't believe we got an NFL game this week.
Oh that's a lot crazy. I know, it's pretty crazy.
So all right, what do you have up for clients
up at wager Talk today?
Speaker 4: Yeah, baseball. So I talked about the free play video
Mets Padre's free play video coming up this afternoon on
wager Talk TV. Click subscribe click the bell for an
instant alert. But I always post a bonus free play.
My last cut just a bit outside for making the
best bet card goes up free on my page every
day with the analysis. So go check out my page
Steve merrillwager Talk dot com for that bonus free play
Tonight's top baseball best bet. And while you're there, check
out the special offers that are posted every week. The
best one up there right now is the one year
all access for a dollar a play. This is a
great time to get on board. August is right around
the corner. That means you're gonna get all of college
and pro football, all of college and pro basketball for
the next seasons, all the way through now next year,
the rest of this year's baseball season, through the first
half of next year's baseball It's a great time to
get on board right now. And last year in August
and September we were on fire, up thirty net games
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climbing right now. With promo code SM three sixty five,
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that gets it down to exactly three dollars a day,
about a dollar a play. Check it out Steve Merrill
wager Talk dot com. And get to my page quicker
with SHORTCUTWT dot buzz slash sm awesome stuff.
Speaker 1: Steve. I feel a little sad that you're not on Tuesdays,
so we can't do that.
Speaker 4: So I thought about that. I thought about that because
you're talking now now that it was in public that
we were having an affair. Check out last Tuesday's wager
talk today. If you don't understand the kisscam reference, no shame.
I ain't stepping down from my role because I wasn't CEO.
I don't need to. But what did you think someone
at astronomer whatever the name of, that they should have
seen this coming? Or is that a strong I get
a confuse, but all seriousness. Technically Monday as early as
five o'clock Pacific can be five dollars Tuesday, because let's
go up as early as eight o'clock Eastern on Monday
for five dollars Tuesday. So check out the website later
tonight and maybe next week. I'll be back for five
dollar Tuesday. I want to throw you a curveball. Andy
Lang had to get that NFL preseason info out as
fast as possible.
Speaker 1: Love it. I love it. Steve Merrill, everyone hobby he's
got that Mets and Padres preview video for you up.
So all right, dan so I said, local business came
up with the best thing ever for a for a concert.
So we went to the Offspring concert on Saturday, and
my buddy's wife is like, yeah, you got to go
to this place. It's called Saxony's. It's about fifteen to
twenty minutes south of the venue. So we all get
an uber there and they do big pizzas deep dish.
You know, it's like a bar, but they have a
shuttle that takes you right into the concert. You bypass
all the traffic and then you come out and the
shuttle right by the exits. You get on the shuttle
and you take it right back to the place, easy
in and out, you avoid all the traffic. It's amazing.
But here's the best part. When you get to the
place before the concert, you can order a huge deep
dish pizza. They keep it for you, and when you
come back from the concert, they have your pizza waiting
for you. You're leftover pizza when you get back. It's brilliant.
I can never do another concert without coming without it.
Speaker 2: On demand pizza pizza like.
Speaker 1: Literally walk in and they were like, oh hey, guys, hey,
we got your pizza ready. We were like, what is this?
Is this heaven? This is like the scene in Happy
Gilmour when he goes to his happy place, Like this
is the this is the most amazing thing ever.
Speaker 4: A place certainly includes pizza as well, andy.
Speaker 1: Pizza before and after the concert. So yeah, shout out
to Saxony's it was an amazing thing. But yeah, that
is the key to enjoying a concert. Pizza before and
after waiting for you insane insane. All right, guys, let's
gonna do it for us. Dana is traveling, so we'll
be back Wednesday to break down to the next season
win total for the Chargers. And if you're watching this
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Hovey see Hobby gets his question asked. Andy gets a
solo video made just after the show. So Sean wants
to know if I pay the two dollars, Well, Dan
sing me happy birthday, I gladly. Yeah sure, But Sean,
you only get one birthday year. Okay, yeah, like you
can't say may.
Speaker 2: It doesn't get yeah, it doesn't get to keep getting
keep ringing on the same bell.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, yeah, absolutely absolutely So, all right, it's Monday.
We got a great week ahead of us. Listen NFL Week.
Your NFL season officially kicks off this week, so get
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w NBA, MLB, UFC. We got a huge, huge week
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