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Speaker 1: One your life. Welcome to the best sports betting show

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on the planet. This is Wager Talk Today. I am

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your host, Andy Lang. It is Monday. I'm optimistic about

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a great week. I woke up this morning life just

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felt really good. So we're kicking off a brand new week.

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We're gonna get started with MLB. We're gonna look to

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the Hall of Fame game in the NFL, and of

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course Johnny is gonna join us with the Steam Report.

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We're gonna start with the Steam Report. Crack Man's gonna

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join us talk a little MLB prop that he likes,

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and then we're gonna do all around the World, and

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Steve Merril's gonna join us talk Cubs and the Brewers

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and the Hall of Fame look Ahead. And then I

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went to the Offspring concert on Saturday, and I discovered

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the single greatest thing that a local business could ever

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do for a concert. It's the most it's most genius

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idea I have ever heard of for a concert. I

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cannot wait to tell you guys, we'll do that at

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the very end. So I hope everyone had a great weekend.

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Thanks for joining us. To see you guys joining us

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in the chat already, let's get started with Giohnny. While

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we're doing that, please hit that like button and ay

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shout out we Gianni. We crossed two hundred and ten

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thousand subscribers over the weekend. Let's go, let's let's thank

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you to the audience. Man appreciate you guys. Welcome to

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the wager Talk YouTube family. So how you doing this Monday, Gianni.

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Speaker 2: I'm coming off a bad week. Bad week, Brian, I'm

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right there with you, brother, terrible week, me too. And

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the last two weeks it crushed me. I was up

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and down the entire year, like up twenty units, down,

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five units, up, fifteen units, like, just hadn't have that

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big run. But the last two weeks I've gotten absolutely crushed.

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So it's just going back to the grind.

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Speaker 3: Bro.

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Speaker 2: I tell you when I win, tell you when I lose.

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This is the job. This is one of those runs

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of negative variants that you have to deal with. And

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the flip side of that coin is you know what's

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coming the positive side, Like even if you're a negative

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VV better after a bad run, you expect a little

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regression and progression towards the me like, so that's the

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good thing and a lot of recreational betters. That's the

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mistake they made. They jump off winning betters that have

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information when they're cold, and they follow losing betters when

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they're hot. When you know, like the negative B be

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better is not going to be able to sustain that

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win streak, just like the plus ev better is not

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going to continue losing, Like that's going to flip. But

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it's just so hard to make yourself do it. It's

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kind of like buying stock when everyone's running out of

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the burning building for you to run in. You know,

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when all the press is negative, when everyone's saying Bitcoin's

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going to zero, crypto's being outlawed. You know I went

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through that in twenty twenty. You know, I had amassed

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all this crypto and all I was getting was nothing

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but negativity with the FTX collapse, with this collapse, and

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this is the end of crypto, and you're sitting there panicking,

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like what do you do? But if you got into

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something with like having studied it and understand it, then

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you don't sweat it. And with me with betting, like

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I've done this long enough now that I know how

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it ends, Like I know this is all going to

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be part of the journey. I've done this journey so

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many times where you have to overcome those negative band runs.

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You can't over bet your edge so you don't get buried,

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and you survive them and let your edge materialize. It's

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like rinse, repeat, over and over and over again. But

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it's easy to say and harm to do, and it

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took me a long time to get there. So now

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that I am there again, I'm not happy I lost

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the last two weeks, but I bet size in a

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way which allows me to wake up this morning with

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a positive outlook, like do the job, do the job,

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trust in the work, trust in the mat. When the

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dust settles, you know the end result. It's a long war, brother,

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with a bunch of battle between You're going to lose

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some battles. But if you're winning the war, if you

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zoom out and you have positive lifetime earnings, you're on

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the right road. That's all you could do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I had two really great weeks in

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a row and then a terrible week last week. I'm

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with you, and I just want to appreciate everyone in

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the chat. Thank you for sharing. Oh I had a

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rough week. We can talk about this stuff on the show.

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This is a safe space. We can talk about wins

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and we can talk about losses because it's all part

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of the business, that's part of the industry, and it's

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part of the job that we chose. So we will.

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Let's be John, You're going to tell you when we're

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up and when we're down. But thank you Bill for

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sharing that with us. Brian, thank you for sharing that.

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And as long as we keep doing what we're doing,

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we have the correct systems in place. We know that

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the long term we're gonna be okay, and that the

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rough stretches and the speed bumps are just you know,

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part of the ride. They suck. It's terrible, depressed, you

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know when it happens, but you know, we get back

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to it. So let's talk some positivity. Let's talk about

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some steam. What do we got today? I know we

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got NBA in a little bit of WNBA, A couple.

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Speaker 2: Totals in WNBA under h a half one ffty nine

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on Seattle, Connecticut and the New York Dallas that got

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away from me over one sixty seven all the way

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to one seventy that moved pretty significantly, pretty co quickly

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as well. And both those totals seem to be at

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least opposite public Leans. Again, WNBA doesn't get heavily bet

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but with little recreational bet and money that I do

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see in the sheet is opposite both those totals. So

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under in Seattle, Connecticut over in New York Dallas seems

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to be sharp versus square on those games.

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Speaker 1: A couple just made real quick Gianni, I'll jumping on

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that liberty dealing with injuries. You got Stewart out, They

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got to fit a lot of people out. Three people

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already ruled out for tonight, So those injuries are probably

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what's affecting that line.

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Speaker 2: Keep going, yeah, yeah, no, no good stuff. A couple

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of baseball totals slower on the sides, and again you

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know there's a lot of manipulation there, and with the

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numbers going, you probably don't want to chase the bat

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number in total, especially around those key seven to nine

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and elevens. With that out of the way, nine fifty

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two Cincinnati plus one fifty nine to fifty three, Cubbies

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minus one oh five nine to sixty San Francisco at

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minus one twenty nine two, Baltimore at even money nine

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to sixty four Yankees minus one fifteen, good, minus one

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twenty and under nine up the minus one twenty five,

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Boston at plus money, all the way down to even

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Athletics at plus money and down to even with the

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over ten, up the minus one twenty five, and finally

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Atlanta when it got when it dropped, money came in

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on the dog on that opener line drop and one

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of the guys I work with, they came in. They

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laid the one fifty one to fifty five on Atlanta.

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That's why that line's moving back up now. Where I

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saw multiple confirmation was on four signs Cubs, Baltimore Yankees,

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Atlanta Young's Cubs, Baltimore Yankees, Atlanta, and then the under

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in the Yankees saw some confirmation there where ultiple groups

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on the same side. So those seem a little bit

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stronger and even opposite the public. I think in three

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or four of those.

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Speaker 1: Did you said you say money came in on Baltimore, Yeah, Baltimore,

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even Baltimore. That's an interesting one. Uh, Basset going for

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Toronto much lower e r A E Flyn going for Baltimore.

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That's a really interesting one. Do you expect buyback on

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Toronto as the day moves on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's one sided money on Toronto even from

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the betting public. You look at Baltimore again, you know

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Baltimore's they're both these teams are pretty much where they

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should be. I think Toronto's playing a little bob expectations.

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Remember when the season's over, it's Monday, I get my

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guys projections. He has Toronto winning over only fifty six

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point eight So I think it's the five too point

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five to six point eight percent of their games. So

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you know, obviously they're they're above that, so expect the

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little regression on Toronto. Uh So it may be a

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fade of Toronto more than a bet on Baltimore in

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this spot. But they've kind of been splitting. If you

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look at the season series even last year, these two

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teams kind of been splitting win one, lose one. They've

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alternated wins and losses. I think over the last ten,

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one wins game one, the other game two game. It's

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going back and forth. So Toronto won the last game

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on So it looks like in Baltimore's turns and losses

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over the last ten, it's what you called Baltimore's turn

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to get at WU.

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Speaker 1: Well, Duffel says, Efflin is awful. So that's that's all.

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Speaker 2: That's almost the sixty r A this late season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes that's all the analysis you need is starting.

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Speaker 2: But he's coming off a good game, one of his

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better games. Actually.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: Any of the totals kind of jump out, jump out

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at you that you saw money come in on that

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was surprising. Some load totals today. Seven and a half, Yeah, there.

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Speaker 2: Are some low totals. The undering the Yankees game, you know,

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coming now, I think it's eight and a half pretty

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much everywhere. I don't trust that. I mean under nine,

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I understand, but I couldn't go under eight and a

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half in that game. Again, you look at the Yankees

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been putting up some runs of late. Tampa hasn't been

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able to score. But I think it is the game

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they should be able to get some runs up there.

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You don't know much all this what only the third

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start for Schlitter, So they let him go ninety pitches

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last time. I don't know if they're gonna let him

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do that in five innings he went. So I like

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the under a little bit, but I couldn't go under

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eight and a half. And the over in athletics. That

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kind of makes sense to me. I see the public

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betting that one as well over that ten. Yeah, I

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lean over. I like the totals, but the numbers gone.

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Some of the numbers are gone.

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Speaker 1: And real quick before we let you go, can you

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talk to the distinction between nip and confirmation on some

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of these numbers when you mention those terms manipulation and confirmation, what's.

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Speaker 2: The difference confirmations? When I look, what I look for

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is when I see a side get hit and it

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goes into multiple accounts from different groups that I hand

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that accounts to, you know what I mean, then they

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all more or less they're trying to get a good

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number on that side. When it's like, you know, if

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you're working with three different groups and only ones betting aside,

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you don't know if they gave someone else the opposite

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side and they're trying to scalp it or they're you

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know what I mean, or if it's a or they're

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trying the middle a play or scalp a side or something.

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But when you get multiple groups on the same side,

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that's never the case, you know, I mean, that's that's

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just trying to get a number before it's gone. But

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with individual moves, again, there's if you have the power

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to move the market, why would he you know what

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I mean? But again, a lot of these guys are

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even working scale. Now it's gonna get harder with the

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with the new luw uh the taxing. But I got

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that's what you got to worry about with the money

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lines because there's just so many scalping opportunities. Just click

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go to odds Logic or even the wager talk free

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on screen and just click one of the matchups and

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you're going to see the line move up and down

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on almost every game. Where if you get out ahead

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of the market, you could set up nice scalps more

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or less without much risk, if you could just determine

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which way the line's going to move, not even having

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a handicap in the game. Uh So, you know you

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got to be aware of that because again baseball is

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one of those sports where the limits just aren't that big.

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It doesn't take a ton of money to move a line,

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you know what I mean. Like moving a Monday night

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football line is very hard. Moving a Sunday night Baseball

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line not that hard, even though you know primetime game

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very different landscapes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also I.

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Speaker 2: Lost five percent. I lost my five percent in UFC

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back to back five percent losses. Again, I'll tell you

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when I win with those, tell you when I lose.

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And the bottom line again, I don't make excuses, but

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I grade my stuff a lot of times on how

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did I do? Did I did? I beat the market?

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And in both cases that was like, that's what I did.

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I was able to get down on Amanda Eboss with

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subscribers at minus one forty five. She was minus two

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00:12:24,519 --> 00:12:28,080
hundred minus two five at bet on line when that fight,

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you know, the day of the fight, hour before the fight,

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I can't do better than that, you know, And the

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same thing the week prior getting in on like an

247
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even money that goes off at minus one sixty, you

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have a huge edge. When that's the case, Unfortunately, you're

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going to lose a lot of good bets that you place.

250
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But when in doubt, you zoom out and the numbers

251
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never lie. And in MMA, over the last three hundred

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and sixty five days, I'm up thirty units and the

253
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twenty two percent ROI I've given out twenty seven five

254
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percents in UFC MMA over the last twelve months, so

255
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twenty seven of those about what two two and a

256
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half per month and thirty units of profit and twenty

257
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two percent ROI. So long term, getting that kind of

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value is going to make us profitable. But unfortunately, fight

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by fight there's going to be a lot of randomness

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that we can't control. But you keep placing those good bets.

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When the dust settles, you should find yourself nicely ahead.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely, We'll keep monitoring everything this week. So Johnny,

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Tellveron what you have up on Monday for clients.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that the NFL college football package is up. It's

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combined all futures you get in one package. In the

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past I would separate those, but I put them together

267
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because the volume is lower. There's about nine of them

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in there. There's five college football for NFL with a

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five percent big move and you know, will team make

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the playoffs or not? A couple of those props as well.

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Already released an MMA play for Saturday, and I'll have

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the ball up within the next thirty minutes. I like

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the baseball cart today, just waiting for a little bit

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more confirmation before we fire. So back to the Brian

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man excited about the opportunity ahead and knock down, try

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to win back last two weeks.

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Speaker 1: That's it's gonna be a great week. It's gonna be

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a great week, Johnny. I woke up this morning and

279
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I had water in the ceiling and I was like,

280
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oh great, here we go. And then it turned out

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it was nothing. It was a clog gutter, and I

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was like, I was like, normally water in the ceiling

283
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is a nightmare. But we fixed it immediately. So I'm like, Okay,

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this week's gonna be great.

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Speaker 2: This this is thank you Mitchell Brothers, thank you brother

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thank you. Justin Yeah, well you got crack coming up

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today too. I mean, it's a good it's gonna be

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a great day. Nothing but great information here wager talk

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and Monday's nothing but opportunities. Baby, last week is over.

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You gotta settle this morning and.

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Speaker 3: Crypto wherever you owe.

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Speaker 2: That's that's what I had to do this morning, send out,

293
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send out a little bitcoin and back to work.

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Speaker 1: By the way, uh you you and I definitely called

295
00:14:55,919 --> 00:14:58,960
it XRP when it spiked. You see, it's all it's

296
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,080
all the way down to three sixteen, so you know,

297
00:15:02,679 --> 00:15:05,000
don't buy it at the height. Wait, it's almost by

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time with that one.

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Speaker 2: So wait five ten years. You know where it's going.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely, Thanks Giotny. Let's have a great budday.

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Speaker 2: Let's have a great love you guys. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Oh Johnny the Greek gets us off started. Let's bring

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in crack and uh, let's just get right into it.

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We got a great actually crack. We got a question

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00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:28,919
here from Bill. I want to I'll get to your

306
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MLB prop here in a bit, but uh, Bill's question, Uh,

307
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last week I wasn't running good, picked up the fact

308
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I wasn't, which is easy to do, and slowed my

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bets down a bit. Is that the right thing to do? So, okay,

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you're running cold? Do you slow down the bets? Do

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you slow down the unit sides? Crack? What happens when

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you run into a little bit of a cold stretch.

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Speaker 3: Well, this guy is obviously in a stute gambler, because

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most gamblers wouldn't even think like that. They actually up

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their bets and try to get out. And it's a

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natural human chemistry, it's our human condition, it's the human makeup.

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We just want to get back to even And so

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for Bill to actually even think that kind of mindset.

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It's absolutely correct. And you know, I was gonna talk

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00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:14,320
about that at the end of this, but I'll talk

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about that now since this question actually has something to

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do with it. So, of course, if you're losing money

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and you're betting that percentage of bankroll, that means your

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bet size is going to go down, but usually gets

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adjusted week by week, not day by day. However, if

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you're a student enough like this person is to know

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he's had a bad couple of days, well right in

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the middle of the week. Yes, if you're betting two

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hundred dollars a play, now you'll lower it down to

330
00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:40,399
one hundred and fifty a play, one hundred and seventy

331
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a play. You know, it all goes by a percentage

332
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of bankroll. I know. It's an old fashioned thing, and

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everyone hears it, and most people do not adhere to

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it because it's not a it's not something that's fun

335
00:16:50,799 --> 00:16:53,759
to do. It's not it's not fun to have bankroll

336
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management and worry about each each two percent I have it.

337
00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,440
I have a you know, I have a ten thousand

338
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,039
dollars bank Oh, I'm supposed to bet two hundred dollars

339
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,200
on this, and then when your bank row goes grows

340
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,960
to ten twelve thousand. Well, now you're supposed to bet

341
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,960
two forty on this, So it's not fun, but it's

342
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:17,119
the only way to success if you're serious about this. Now,

343
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if you're like my buddies that I grew up with

344
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back Easton in New York, New Jersey, they don't care.

345
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:26,200
It doesn't matter everything's in action. Even though they're around

346
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,480
me all these years, they know thirty years successful betting sports.

347
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,359
They don't care. They want to do what they want

348
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to do. It's actually a natural tendency. Like I said earlier,

349
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my buddies come out from arch Madness and Andy, they're

350
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,079
come out with five thousand. They're firing five hundred or

351
00:17:44,079 --> 00:17:47,119
one thousand a game, and and if they lose, they

352
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go to the credit cards. And then Western Union over

353
00:17:49,279 --> 00:17:51,440
at the Barbary Coat. Well, it's no longer a Barbary

354
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,720
Coast over at that casino. That's now it was Bills

355
00:17:56,039 --> 00:17:58,720
Barbary Coast. It's a great casino, but that that was

356
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,559
the original Western Union. In the back of that casino,

357
00:18:02,599 --> 00:18:05,039
it's Oh boy, can't think the name of the scene.

358
00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:08,640
Don't talk about the con not the Conrad Cromwell, The Cromwell,

359
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,400
so that is one of the western unions in town.

360
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,119
And when I was a kid first coming to Vegas

361
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,799
like an idiot in the early nineties, yeah, I was

362
00:18:15,839 --> 00:18:18,839
with but my friends haven't changed. It's it's that New

363
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:23,839
York mentality, that Philly, that in Boston, whatever, Cleveland, Pittsburgh.

364
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,720
This gamble was everywhere now and it's almost like closet gambling.

365
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,279
You're gambling with a ticket where you're gambling on an app,

366
00:18:30,319 --> 00:18:32,599
no one knows anything, and you're just reloading. You don't

367
00:18:32,599 --> 00:18:34,799
want to let your friends know. Especially Bill Krackenberg. You

368
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,960
know that you're betting ten twenty percent of your bank

369
00:18:37,039 --> 00:18:39,920
roll in one game, so two to three percent, I

370
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,079
have no problem. Well you're even betting something a little hot,

371
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,480
like I have preseason games coming up. I have no

372
00:18:46,519 --> 00:18:49,960
problem with you betting literally five percent of your bank

373
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,519
will And I never ever said that on any show ever.

374
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:58,039
I just know that the preseason is the stone cold nuts.

375
00:18:58,039 --> 00:19:01,400
I mean, if it's not, then then over Tokyo it's over.

376
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,519
But yeah, I've been doing pre season for years, and

377
00:19:05,559 --> 00:19:06,920
you have to get ahead of the line. You have

378
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,960
to be you have to have your alerts on. You

379
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,440
have to have your your notifications on and preseasons has

380
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,480
been great, NFL props have been great. So but anyway,

381
00:19:16,519 --> 00:19:19,519
going back to that, bank roll management very good, very smart,

382
00:19:19,799 --> 00:19:21,839
and don't get caught up in the I'll tell you

383
00:19:21,839 --> 00:19:24,240
something to don't get caught up in the closet gambling.

384
00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:27,000
And when I say about that that closet gambling betting

385
00:19:27,079 --> 00:19:30,519
live on your app, you just start firing. And you

386
00:19:30,559 --> 00:19:33,680
know it's hard to stop firing during the game. So

387
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,799
the Bills get the first touchdown and you say, oh

388
00:19:35,839 --> 00:19:37,519
my god, I knew I should have bet the Bills

389
00:19:37,519 --> 00:19:40,839
pre flop. I knew this, and you start betting. Well, Also,

390
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,400
the bookmaker knows which way you're betting. They know you're

391
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,279
betting the Bills over New England. They know you're betting

392
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,640
which way you're betting, So already you're gonna pay a

393
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,200
little bit of a tax on those type of bets.

394
00:19:51,519 --> 00:19:54,720
Just just be aware. Have multiple outs very important. Have

395
00:19:54,799 --> 00:19:57,400
multiple outs. So if you come to town here and you

396
00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,079
want to stay at the trip at the strip, let's

397
00:19:59,079 --> 00:20:03,359
say you miss Mirage property MGM Mirage, So not only

398
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,799
will you have the bet MGM app, you should have

399
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:10,039
other apps like stations like like the Coast casinos, the

400
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:14,480
slower moving apps have multiple apps open so you could

401
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,319
see the difference in lines. Line shopping means everything, I know.

402
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,400
Even if you're coming in with a couple thousand, big deal.

403
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,640
So you throw eight hundred dollars in three apps, I'm

404
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,160
telling you those half a points. And by the way,

405
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,599
you will get half a points even on NFL here

406
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,599
day of the game because of the square public they're

407
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,160
dealing to at the stations, even at the win. I

408
00:20:37,559 --> 00:20:39,720
know one thing. I bet every single Sunday. I don't

409
00:20:39,759 --> 00:20:42,680
recommend betting game time close to game, but I'll tell

410
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,640
you every single Sunday I will have bets in at

411
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:49,000
the win because every single Sunday during the season, even

412
00:20:49,039 --> 00:20:51,319
the manager over there, Doug. So I have to move.

413
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,279
I got big players that are playing in the casino

414
00:20:53,319 --> 00:20:54,799
come up to the counter. They want to bet three

415
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,599
hundred thousand on the game. I have to get some

416
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,319
action on both sides. I move extra half a point,

417
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:03,519
so low hanging fruit at the win on Sundays stations,

418
00:21:03,519 --> 00:21:05,119
even though I'm not allowed to play, I'd thrown on

419
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,680
for winning. But you guys will be able to play

420
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,039
while you're here or for a long period of time.

421
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:11,880
I was just betting max bets and I beat them

422
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,960
at a peanuts really a twelve grand or seven grand

423
00:21:15,039 --> 00:21:17,720
I think Station seven grand, Coast twelve grand.

424
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, you touched on something that was so interesting. This

425
00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:24,799
is why I don't bet. I don't live bet like

426
00:21:25,079 --> 00:21:28,079
NFL or NBA or something unless I have something great

427
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,039
at the end of the game. Because when I used

428
00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:32,279
to do it, I wouldn't end up with one live

429
00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:34,400
bet on the game. I'd end up with like six

430
00:21:34,519 --> 00:21:39,079
or seven. And You're like, this is crazy, this is insane.

431
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,079
That's I think that's the big trip with live betting

432
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,039
some of those games. So I'm a UFC Live Better

433
00:21:45,039 --> 00:21:46,319
and that's it, and.

434
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,799
Speaker 3: Think you said the right thing. Guess what, even Bill

435
00:21:48,839 --> 00:21:51,160
Kackenberger got caught up in it. When I first came.

436
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,400
I was at the end casino over at Caanther Gaming.

437
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,240
They had the first live gaming screen, and you're there

438
00:21:57,279 --> 00:21:58,720
bet and it wasn't even that you couldn't even do

439
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,240
it on your hand, on your bot, on your computer.

440
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,079
You had to do it on their screens, which they

441
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,680
all had the screens. Andy, You're right, you get caught

442
00:22:05,759 --> 00:22:07,839
up in the live waging. Now of course I don't

443
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:09,359
do it now. That was just the first couple of weeks.

444
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,079
I was like, wow, I got caught up in the

445
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,839
live wagering, and I just I was betting against the

446
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,039
public on a game. But it didn't matter. I was betting.

447
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,519
I was over betting for a new thing to me.

448
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,359
And of course, now here we are, you know a

449
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,559
dozen years later, that's not happening. But it's easy to

450
00:22:26,559 --> 00:22:28,759
get caught up with live wavering. By the way, you're

451
00:22:28,799 --> 00:22:31,759
paying double the juice on live waverdring or maybe more.

452
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,559
I noticed some spots that are charge on one twenty each,

453
00:22:34,599 --> 00:22:36,559
Like I said, on live wave drink, you're paying at

454
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,839
least one fifteen each. I haven't really found a spot

455
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,279
that's minus one ten both ways like it is pre flop.

456
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,839
So just to know you're playing, you're paying more money

457
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:50,200
and you're playing, why they have an edge on you.

458
00:22:50,279 --> 00:22:52,400
That's right. I know these companies don't let me saying this,

459
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,240
but I'm gonna tell you right now. Only bet doing

460
00:22:55,319 --> 00:22:59,119
commercials because you have a seven to ten second TV delay.

461
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,319
Now you have the frequent speet delay that's going into

462
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,680
the TeV listen. Overall, you probably have a thirty second

463
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,400
delay in some spots. So literally, unless you have that

464
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,039
AM frequently that am F which I we had at

465
00:23:13,079 --> 00:23:16,400
one time, you really have to be careful betting lives

466
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,480
during the game because I'm not saying nobody's cheating, but

467
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:21,880
I'm not saying nobody's not.

468
00:23:22,799 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: Well, I'll add to that. So UFC we do a

469
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,599
live show where we watched the UFC event well on

470
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,519
our One of our friends was at a UFC event

471
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,559
and we had him tell us where we were at

472
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,240
in the fight based on what we were seeing. We

473
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:43,799
were fifty seconds behind. We were fifty seconds behind. So

474
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,480
when you're looking at the live lines, there's fifty seconds

475
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,200
of fighting action that you haven't seen. So we we

476
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,640
we do the same thing. You got to wait until

477
00:23:51,799 --> 00:23:54,839
in between rounds uh to make those live bets just

478
00:23:54,839 --> 00:23:57,839
because you have no idea you're getting ready to happen.

479
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,079
Speaker 3: Of worms. Here to tell you right now what it's called.

480
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,720
It's called court siding. So these people go to games,

481
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,839
they're betting court siding, and they're betting the apps, trying

482
00:24:06,839 --> 00:24:08,680
to beat the apps because they're live at the game,

483
00:24:08,759 --> 00:24:11,000
live at the thing listen, a lot of guys are

484
00:24:11,039 --> 00:24:13,680
betting with their locals. You know, the PPH accounts, the

485
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,319
per Head accounts that that Gihanny just talked about their

486
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,319
court siding. I'll tell you what if the local guys

487
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,000
knew that they were cheating betting court siding because they

488
00:24:22,039 --> 00:24:24,400
had the advantage over the Oh boy, I don't know,

489
00:24:24,519 --> 00:24:28,359
many years ago you wind up in the trunk out

490
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,920
here in Las Vegas. But uh it happened. Then these

491
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,319
computer nerds are saying, I'm not doing nothing wrong. What

492
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,400
am I doing wrong? I'm just wrong better you know,

493
00:24:36,599 --> 00:24:39,680
they just don't see what they're doing. But anyway, I've

494
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:40,839
talked enough about this stuff.

495
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 1: Sorry, no, it's it's important. No, this is important, like

496
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,000
like getting this information out about live betting. It's really

497
00:24:47,039 --> 00:24:49,640
really dangerous. I like, I remember when I first I

498
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,640
first started doing live betting. One game, I was like,

499
00:24:51,839 --> 00:24:54,440
I have twelve units all of a sudden on this random,

500
00:24:54,559 --> 00:24:57,079
blank NFL game, just live bets.

501
00:24:57,079 --> 00:24:57,319
Speaker 3: It was.

502
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 1: It was madness. So let's just an MLB prop for today.

503
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,000
You and I love our props, So which prop do

504
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:05,000
you have circled for today?

505
00:25:05,319 --> 00:25:09,799
Speaker 3: Baseball? Let's go to the Yankees Cam slidder over strikeouts

506
00:25:09,799 --> 00:25:12,960
over four and a half minus one thirty five props

507
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,960
have been profitable. That's like my bread and Butter's prop.

508
00:25:16,079 --> 00:25:18,240
So I'm gonna stick with one of those. Yanks have

509
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,079
really been struggling and need to need to get a

510
00:25:22,079 --> 00:25:24,880
really good outing from one of their best pitcher prospects. Here.

511
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,839
Cam had great stuff in his first two addings and

512
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,880
goes up against a Raise lineup today that has the

513
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,079
ten highest width rate. The Rays have also been one

514
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,440
of the worst strikeout teams since the All Star Break.

515
00:25:36,599 --> 00:25:39,559
I think Cam can go over this number today pretty easy.

516
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,440
As always. It goes five plus innings over his strikeouts

517
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,039
there four and a half minus one thirty five.

518
00:25:46,079 --> 00:25:48,759
Speaker 1: Love it, Love it, Bill, you mentioned preseason. We have

519
00:25:48,759 --> 00:25:52,960
a preseason special that is up. It's only sixty nine dollars.

520
00:25:53,039 --> 00:25:56,319
It's regularly priced at ninety nine dollars. So tell everyone

521
00:25:56,319 --> 00:25:57,680
why you love preseason so much.

522
00:25:58,319 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 3: Oh, preseason is real, simple people. Some people say, oh

523
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,000
my god, you're a degenerate. You've got pleased preseason. Yeah, okay,

524
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:08,319
I have ruined book book makers betting preseason over the years.

525
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,759
They they're hiding under the beds Monday morning, so anyway,

526
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,839
preseason is real simple. We're up on our socials. We

527
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,119
have a guy that just reads nothing but socials and

528
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,480
and knows every single insider of the team. They know

529
00:26:22,559 --> 00:26:25,960
those beat reporters that that work for the teams. They

530
00:26:26,039 --> 00:26:27,559
just follow that stuff. It's hard for a lot of

531
00:26:27,559 --> 00:26:29,519
people to do. You have to know the little uh

532
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,880
nuances and and then you have to know every single

533
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,599
person UH to follow. But there's a lot of a

534
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,799
lot of tips out there in social media that that

535
00:26:37,839 --> 00:26:40,720
we that we use for to get our leads. It's

536
00:26:40,759 --> 00:26:45,000
called our leads to be to be real blunt. I've

537
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,880
never had a losing preseason and and uh you really

538
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,240
shouldn't based on the information that that's out there that

539
00:26:50,279 --> 00:26:52,640
we get. So preseason is great. Look forward to the

540
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,240
NFL season. NFL props they've been great. Player props been great.

541
00:26:56,319 --> 00:27:00,480
They're available at all the sportsbooks, FanDuel, DraftKings, Bet, MGM, Caesars,

542
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,599
they all have the ones that are and I give

543
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,680
out of obtainable lines, which is very important. That's something

544
00:27:05,759 --> 00:27:09,359
I I you know, I hate when when when you

545
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,559
know sometimes a line, you have to get to it first.

546
00:27:11,599 --> 00:27:14,039
You have to have your notifications on you have to

547
00:27:14,039 --> 00:27:16,839
have your your notifications on that were notifying you that

548
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,920
we're going to have a play, because in preseason you

549
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,279
only have a minute, literally have a minute that the

550
00:27:22,319 --> 00:27:26,319
bet however, but you get get your your apps ready

551
00:27:26,319 --> 00:27:29,400
and fire there. But as far as the props go,

552
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,319
you have time there. It's a very obtainable line and

553
00:27:32,559 --> 00:27:35,079
the props props have been great, so look forward to it.

554
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,039
I have some stuff up right now there. There's a

555
00:27:37,079 --> 00:27:41,160
baseball game up there today. But yeah, those packages I

556
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,119
was looking over myself. The packages we have are you know,

557
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,279
I think it's eight ninety nine for college football, n

558
00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:50,559
NFL throughout the seasons at the Super Bowl eight ninety nine.

559
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,519
That's unbelievable. Like I said, I've been charging five hundred

560
00:27:54,519 --> 00:27:57,440
a month for that for for years for the for

561
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,319
the football. So we got some really good deals up there.

562
00:27:59,319 --> 00:28:01,400
On way you're talking, I'll look forward to talking to

563
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:02,279
you guys next week.

564
00:28:02,799 --> 00:28:04,799
Speaker 1: Thanks Bill, have a great week. Thank you so much.

565
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,440
Great conversation about live betting. Great conversation about live betting,

566
00:28:08,519 --> 00:28:12,480
something everyone needs to understand. Yeah, we mentioned the preseason special.

567
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,759
It's regularly priced at ninety nine, but only sixty nine dollars,

568
00:28:15,759 --> 00:28:20,200
and they gets you all preseason games released from the

569
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,279
Hall of Fame game on Thursday, July thirty first, all

570
00:28:23,319 --> 00:28:27,200
the way to the preseason finale, even five percent best bets.

571
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,400
If we have those in preseason, those are thirty five

572
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,119
bucks each. So if you're interested in preseason, get NFL

573
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,920
season started early, you can take advantage only sixty nine dollars,

574
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,200
really really good discount. Regularly priced at ninety nine dollars

575
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,519
gets you three or four weeks of NFL preseason, So

576
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,079
make sure you lock that in. Pick Bill, pick Steve Merrill,

577
00:28:47,119 --> 00:28:50,440
pick anybody that does NFL preseason, and we'll get you

578
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,359
started for the regular season. Let's go all around the

579
00:28:53,359 --> 00:29:00,000
world here. We got a pretty good slate here of games.

580
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,799
Start with. We had two baseball plays. Let's go to

581
00:29:02,839 --> 00:29:05,319
the Marlins and the Cardinals. We'll do a team total

582
00:29:05,359 --> 00:29:07,480
over three and a half. I like this one, just missed.

583
00:29:07,519 --> 00:29:10,039
The card Marlins had scored over this in two out

584
00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:12,640
of three games at the Brewers the last series. Blade

585
00:29:12,759 --> 00:29:15,880
has been awful the last three starts fifteen point two

586
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,359
innings and he's given up seventeen earned runs. And the

587
00:29:19,359 --> 00:29:21,799
Cardinals is a team have given up four more runs

588
00:29:21,799 --> 00:29:24,680
in seven out of eleven games since the All Star break,

589
00:29:24,759 --> 00:29:26,920
so I think this line should be closer to four

590
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:28,559
and a half, not three and a half. So it's

591
00:29:28,559 --> 00:29:30,160
a little bit juice to the over, but I think

592
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,880
it's worth it. Kevin Dolan has a YUEFA Champions League

593
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,400
play Hammeron at Dynamo. We're looking at under three point

594
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,519
twenty five in regulation. Hammeron has shutouts in five of

595
00:29:40,599 --> 00:29:46,359
the last seven road games and died about three to

596
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,880
zher lead from the first legue complete domination. Expect them

597
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,960
to not push the pace. They'll play ball control and

598
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:53,920
they're gonna play some strong defense, so we expect the

599
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,000
low scoring game in that one, and then the Rays

600
00:29:57,039 --> 00:30:00,240
at the Yankees like the Rays plus one third teen

601
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,519
Rasmusen for the race is a two point nine to

602
00:30:02,559 --> 00:30:06,880
three e er twenty starts. Schlitler making third start where

603
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,599
he's allowed five runs and ten innings and since June.

604
00:30:09,759 --> 00:30:13,839
Interesting stat from Jeff Michaels since June. Yankees last in

605
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:17,880
profit in playing series openers, so they do not get

606
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,200
off to a good start in the series openers and

607
00:30:20,319 --> 00:30:23,440
getting a plus one thirteen on the race. All right,

608
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:28,680
let's bring in good friend Steve Merrill, Steve I cashed

609
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:33,000
a NASCAR bed in spectacular fashion. Alex Bowman, we had

610
00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:35,400
him top ten and he was like back in nineteenth

611
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,640
on the last restart and a bunch of guys ran

612
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,759
out of gas and he ended up ninth. Wow, it

613
00:30:40,839 --> 00:30:44,920
was like those never work out for us. But I

614
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,680
was thinking of you because I was at the brickyard,

615
00:30:46,839 --> 00:30:47,880
was right down the street.

616
00:30:48,119 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's that's a flat track. And the

617
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,799
first thing I think of his Pocono. We've seen that

618
00:30:51,839 --> 00:30:53,799
happen over the years at Pocono, which is kind of

619
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,200
a similar type of track.

620
00:30:55,359 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: Did you go to the race, God, No, it's like

621
00:30:58,359 --> 00:30:59,440
ninety five degrees.

622
00:30:59,480 --> 00:30:59,839
Speaker 3: You had to be.

623
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: It's crazy to go out to that track. It's it's

624
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,400
seriously ten degrees hotter inside the track. Those it's so big,

625
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,799
those the metal seats and stuff. It's unbearable out there.

626
00:31:11,839 --> 00:31:13,680
I went one time and I was like, listen, I

627
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,640
love NASCAR, but I'm never going to my home track again.

628
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,799
It's a it's a long race. It's just it's it's really.

629
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 4: Well, I'm debating Andy because just this week I got

630
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,839
invited next month August. So some of my buddies are

631
00:31:23,839 --> 00:31:25,960
going to the Richmond Race. I think it's August sixteenth.

632
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,000
It's a Saturday night. They've only got the one event now.

633
00:31:28,079 --> 00:31:30,920
It used to be May and September. I went for

634
00:31:31,039 --> 00:31:34,039
playing like two thousand and one to maybe twenty seventeen.

635
00:31:34,079 --> 00:31:35,960
I went every year for like sixteenth straight years. I

636
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:37,759
don't think I've been since nineteen. I haven't been since

637
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,799
since COVID. But apparently the Corner four now is like

638
00:31:41,839 --> 00:31:44,279
party corner and it's a stand like twenty five dollars tickets.

639
00:31:44,319 --> 00:31:46,960
You stand the whole time with tables and I don't know,

640
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,160
I'm thinking about it, but like you said, even the

641
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,720
Richmond Race, it's a short track, but like you got,

642
00:31:51,839 --> 00:31:53,960
LA's two hundred to three fifty get pretty dull. I

643
00:31:54,039 --> 00:31:56,240
usually start walking around looking for the cheese steaks stand

644
00:31:56,319 --> 00:31:59,200
underneath the shaded under course. As you're talking about, zif

645
00:31:59,799 --> 00:32:01,480
it's night race, so it's a little bit better.

646
00:32:01,839 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: Well that okay, that's better. That's better. Now they just

647
00:32:03,799 --> 00:32:05,480
run ours in the middle of the day, in the

648
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:06,759
middle of the month.

649
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,319
Speaker 4: I did Vegas back in February of eight and that

650
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,200
was February, but it was middle to day there's no shade.

651
00:32:13,599 --> 00:32:15,880
Second row sound like great seats, right, I was covered

652
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,000
with like Robert soot like by the end of the race.

653
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,279
And that's the story I always tell, and we've heard

654
00:32:20,279 --> 00:32:22,720
you've heard this before, that that track did not allow

655
00:32:22,799 --> 00:32:26,039
to bring beverages in Richmond always allows it. So literally

656
00:32:26,079 --> 00:32:29,319
at noon noon in Vegas, there was like thousands of

657
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,160
cases of unopened beer stacked at the entrance. It was

658
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,279
one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen. So

659
00:32:35,599 --> 00:32:37,839
crazy all the cities that don't allow to bring out

660
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,799
all into the racetrack Vegas, Vegas.

661
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely so. All right, well, Steve, we got a

662
00:32:43,559 --> 00:32:45,319
couple of things to go over when you get your

663
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,440
look at the NFL Hall of Fame. I want to

664
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,480
talk Cubs and Brewers, but Jave asked about the Mets

665
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,359
and Padres. You're going to be doing a solo video

666
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:55,519
on this one coming up, correct.

667
00:32:56,119 --> 00:32:57,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll tease this where we're gonna give a free

668
00:32:57,759 --> 00:32:59,839
play in the Cubs Brewers game in a moment. Also

669
00:33:00,039 --> 00:33:02,400
NFL preseason play for this Thursday. But I am actually

670
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,119
going to do a solo video right after the show

671
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:08,039
for this Mets Padres game. And Dylan C. Seven a

672
00:33:08,119 --> 00:33:10,079
rough season, but so is Manta. So I'll let you

673
00:33:10,119 --> 00:33:11,759
know what I'm doing with that one. Do we look over?

674
00:33:11,839 --> 00:33:14,079
Do I look at a side all? A free play

675
00:33:14,119 --> 00:33:16,920
Mets Padres solo video here on wager Talk TV. So

676
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,119
click subscribe and click that bell for an instant alert

677
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:21,240
so you don't miss out.

678
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,559
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk Cubs and Brewers. Two pitchers that are

679
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:28,559
not struggling this year. Boyd right the Cubs, Misraowski for Brewers.

680
00:33:28,559 --> 00:33:30,279
I mean, these guys, you got a two point two

681
00:33:30,319 --> 00:33:34,160
ERA and a two point four to five ERA over under?

682
00:33:34,319 --> 00:33:34,799
Speaker 3: Is it eight?

683
00:33:35,039 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: Surely that's moving down to seven and a half at

684
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,599
some point. Basically, straight pick them Cubs, a little bit

685
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,880
of juice to the favorite. How do you break down

686
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:43,279
this game?

687
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 4: Misserowski the controversial All Star selection for the Brewers the

688
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,160
twenty two He's either twenty two to twenty three year old,

689
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,079
six foot seven a buck ninety five. Sounds like an

690
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,559
NBA player six seven one ninety five, so he obviously

691
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,240
has no power. Well, he throws like one oh two consistently,

692
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,119
just toe. He'd only made five major league starts, never

693
00:34:03,119 --> 00:34:05,640
made a start until June twelfth, and he made the

694
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,920
All Star Game. But if you look at the innings pitch,

695
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,239
they've been pretty caugh careful with Jacob this year. He

696
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,239
has not gone past the sixth inning in any of

697
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,239
his six starts so far. He went only three or a

698
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,000
quarter three and a two thirds of an inning the

699
00:34:18,039 --> 00:34:21,559
other night against the Mariners his only starts since the break,

700
00:34:22,039 --> 00:34:24,360
but really good numbers overall, two point four to five

701
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,199
e RA. He had solid minor league numbers as well.

702
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,039
Power pitcher, and obviously you know this. This Cubs team

703
00:34:32,039 --> 00:34:33,880
has not seen him before since he's only been in

704
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,920
the league for about a month. So I do think

705
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,719
he'll continue to have some success, and you would expect

706
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,719
with two really good pitchers on the mount. Matthew Boyd

707
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:42,880
going for the Cubs. Boy's got a two point two

708
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,079
are e RA, a one point zero e RA his

709
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:49,280
last seven starts. Wow, since mid June, even better than Misarowski.

710
00:34:50,119 --> 00:34:52,079
You'd think this is maybe a six and a half

711
00:34:52,119 --> 00:34:54,639
a six. No, we got an eight. And this game's

712
00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:56,800
not in Wrigley, it's in Milwaukee, so we got an

713
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,760
eight on this one. As I speak, we're starting to

714
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,440
see some seven and a half's pop out there. But

715
00:35:02,519 --> 00:35:04,360
at eight or more. I like the under here seems

716
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,360
a little obvious. Both offenses and mediocre form two dominant pitchers.

717
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:09,679
But even if we get one of them having a

718
00:35:09,679 --> 00:35:11,880
good outing, should stay under the total. Now, if you're

719
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,639
worried about both of them having a pitch, well, the

720
00:35:13,639 --> 00:35:14,880
one thing you could always do is look at the

721
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,400
team total both at three and a half to the over.

722
00:35:18,079 --> 00:35:19,880
So if either one of the team totals stay under

723
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,920
three and a half at plus money, you're making some money.

724
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,400
So either game under eight or if you're only getting

725
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:25,639
a seven and a half, then I would look at

726
00:35:25,679 --> 00:35:27,599
both team totals under three and a half plus money.

727
00:35:27,599 --> 00:35:29,079
I think at least one of those hits.

728
00:35:30,599 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: Like it.

729
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:31,519
Speaker 3: I like it.

730
00:35:31,599 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on this Hall of Fame game?

731
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,360
Look ahead? I mean, what do we do with this

732
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,760
Hall of Fame game? I know everyone wants to get

733
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:44,199
a little action down on it. Over under thirty three

734
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,519
for the Chargers and the Lions. I know traditionally this

735
00:35:48,559 --> 00:35:51,159
is a big time under. What's your opening thoughts?

736
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,039
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting, Nanny, because you always hear the defenses

737
00:35:54,039 --> 00:35:55,920
are ahead of the offenses early in the season. It

738
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:57,800
makes a lot of sense because it's easier to go

739
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,719
out there just play smash mount football, you know, and

740
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,079
odd is you know, working in new players, new quarterbacks,

741
00:36:02,199 --> 00:36:05,519
new receivers, everything, it's a little tougher and you do

742
00:36:05,559 --> 00:36:08,239
see very low totals. Obviously in an NFL regular season game,

743
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,400
unless it's a blizzard with fog, we're not going to

744
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,320
see a total of thirty three. But that's being priced

745
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:14,880
into the line. So what I like to look at

746
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,239
is key numbers. And when I was growing up back

747
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,719
in the nineties as a young handicapper, twenty nine years

748
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,599
and know, by the way, this August next month coming

749
00:36:21,639 --> 00:36:24,199
up will be my twenty ninth anniversary as a full

750
00:36:24,199 --> 00:36:26,760
time professional handicappers. I've been doing this for a while,

751
00:36:27,079 --> 00:36:28,880
and back in the nineties it was about trying to

752
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,800
get the information, you know, digging for hours on the

753
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,000
new thing called the Internet to try to find the

754
00:36:34,079 --> 00:36:37,159
quarterback rotations. Now it takes me about two seconds to

755
00:36:37,159 --> 00:36:38,920
find out what both teams intend on doing. So you

756
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:40,440
got to dig a little bit deeper and kind of

757
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,519
read between the lines and figure out how to use

758
00:36:43,559 --> 00:36:45,840
that information. So we know the quarterback rotations, we know

759
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:47,800
neither team is going to play their starters at all,

760
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:50,079
and we also have all the coaching data. These are

761
00:36:50,119 --> 00:36:53,360
two fiery coaches, Dan Campbell and Jim Harball. You would

762
00:36:53,559 --> 00:36:55,960
expect them to be too fired up coaches, always trying

763
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,360
to win. Well, They're both one and three against the

764
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,719
spread in Week one of their coaching careers in the preseason.

765
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,039
Harball is ten and six overall, but he's just one

766
00:37:04,039 --> 00:37:06,559
in three in week one. Campbell's just three six and

767
00:37:06,599 --> 00:37:09,280
one overall. So neither one's really made a huge effort

768
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,159
to win, especially in week one when all the backups

769
00:37:11,199 --> 00:37:13,679
are out there. Lion's coming off a monster season. Can't

770
00:37:13,679 --> 00:37:16,480
imagine they're looking to make a statement either. So let's

771
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,159
look at the quarterback rotation, which is always so important.

772
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,639
Justin Herbert not going to play. Probably Taylor Heneke the backup,

773
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,800
veteran backup old Dominion University, not my Washington Commanders, Atlanta

774
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:31,000
Falcons recently NFL starter for several years with teams playoff starter.

775
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,599
Don't expect him to go probably much either, which I

776
00:37:34,639 --> 00:37:36,519
think Trey Lance will get the majority of the work.

777
00:37:36,599 --> 00:37:39,199
Is a three guy. But then the real question mark

778
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,480
is dj Ukulele. As I like to call him out

779
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,519
a Clemson, he was so down at times in college football.

780
00:37:45,559 --> 00:37:47,840
He's the real X factor now the Lions. Jared Goff

781
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:51,440
obviously doesn't need to play. Hender Hooker from Virginia Tech.

782
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,400
And then Kyle Allen also in the hender Hooker. Of course,

783
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,119
Tennessee is where he was sec Offensive Player of the Year.

784
00:37:57,159 --> 00:38:00,480
After that, Kyle Allen the veteran quarterback fighting for the

785
00:38:00,519 --> 00:38:02,920
two to three spot. So we do have two teams

786
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,760
here with some backups that are fighting for kind of

787
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,840
that backup secondary spot between two, you know, all pro

788
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,840
proven starters. So I like the fact we got a

789
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,519
little bit of a quarterback competition with both teams. That

790
00:38:14,599 --> 00:38:16,639
gets me leaning towards the over, even though it is

791
00:38:16,679 --> 00:38:19,559
a Week one game. And I talked about key numbers

792
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,360
back in the nineties, thirty seven forty one were key

793
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,079
numbers in regular season games. It's just the metrics of

794
00:38:25,159 --> 00:38:28,199
scoring a lot of games get you there. Twenty to seventeen,

795
00:38:28,599 --> 00:38:30,440
thirty one to ten, twenty one to twenty gets you

796
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,360
to forty one. Thirty seven is very key. We don't

797
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,679
talk about that a lot anymore in the modern NFL,

798
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,159
where everything's in the mid forties or fifties, but in

799
00:38:37,199 --> 00:38:39,960
the preseason thirty seven is still king. In fact, over

800
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:43,559
the last fifteen years, if you've blindly played all games

801
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,800
that have totals of thirty seven or less over, you've

802
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,679
hit almost sixty percent with the over. If you've blindly

803
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,639
played all thirty seven and a halves or more under,

804
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,400
you've hit like fifty six percent. So it really is

805
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,079
a key number. And at thirty three, I think it's

806
00:38:56,119 --> 00:38:58,519
priced a little low considering there's a quarterback competition with

807
00:38:58,559 --> 00:39:00,599
both teams will take a litle bit of a lean

808
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,239
over thirty three in the Hall of Fame game. And

809
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,400
this is this Thursday night, July thirty first football is here.

810
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:11,559
Speaker 1: Unbelievable. I can't believe we got an NFL game this week.

811
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:16,800
Oh that's a lot crazy. I know, it's pretty crazy.

812
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,119
So all right, what do you have up for clients

813
00:39:19,199 --> 00:39:20,239
up at wager Talk today?

814
00:39:21,599 --> 00:39:23,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, baseball. So I talked about the free play video

815
00:39:24,199 --> 00:39:26,599
Mets Padre's free play video coming up this afternoon on

816
00:39:26,599 --> 00:39:28,880
wager Talk TV. Click subscribe click the bell for an

817
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instant alert. But I always post a bonus free play.

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My last cut just a bit outside for making the

819
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820
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day with the analysis. So go check out my page

821
00:39:39,039 --> 00:39:41,599
Steve merrillwager Talk dot com for that bonus free play

822
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Tonight's top baseball best bet. And while you're there, check

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and pro football, all of college and pro basketball for

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830
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the rest of this year's baseball season, through the first

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half of next year's baseball It's a great time to

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get on board right now. And last year in August

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and September we were on fire, up thirty net games

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in baseball alone. College football started ten to three for

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840
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with SHORTCUTWT dot buzz slash sm awesome stuff.

842
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Speaker 1: Steve. I feel a little sad that you're not on Tuesdays,

843
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:37,480
so we can't do that.

844
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 4: So I thought about that. I thought about that because

845
00:40:41,519 --> 00:40:42,960
you're talking now now that it was in public that

846
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,679
we were having an affair. Check out last Tuesday's wager

847
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:51,320
talk today. If you don't understand the kisscam reference, no shame.

848
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,000
I ain't stepping down from my role because I wasn't CEO.

849
00:40:54,119 --> 00:40:56,559
I don't need to. But what did you think someone

850
00:40:56,559 --> 00:40:58,639
at astronomer whatever the name of, that they should have

851
00:40:58,639 --> 00:41:00,480
seen this coming? Or is that a strong I get

852
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:06,239
a confuse, but all seriousness. Technically Monday as early as

853
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:10,280
five o'clock Pacific can be five dollars Tuesday, because let's

854
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,079
go up as early as eight o'clock Eastern on Monday

855
00:41:12,079 --> 00:41:14,280
for five dollars Tuesday. So check out the website later

856
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,840
tonight and maybe next week. I'll be back for five

857
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,800
dollar Tuesday. I want to throw you a curveball. Andy

858
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:22,079
Lang had to get that NFL preseason info out as

859
00:41:22,119 --> 00:41:23,079
fast as possible.

860
00:41:24,039 --> 00:41:27,079
Speaker 1: Love it. I love it. Steve Merrill, everyone hobby he's

861
00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:30,400
got that Mets and Padres preview video for you up.

862
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:32,880
So all right, dan so I said, local business came

863
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,960
up with the best thing ever for a for a concert.

864
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:41,039
So we went to the Offspring concert on Saturday, and

865
00:41:41,119 --> 00:41:42,719
my buddy's wife is like, yeah, you got to go

866
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,320
to this place. It's called Saxony's. It's about fifteen to

867
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,480
twenty minutes south of the venue. So we all get

868
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,360
an uber there and they do big pizzas deep dish.

869
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:52,679
You know, it's like a bar, but they have a

870
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,599
shuttle that takes you right into the concert. You bypass

871
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,599
all the traffic and then you come out and the

872
00:41:59,599 --> 00:42:02,039
shuttle right by the exits. You get on the shuttle

873
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,320
and you take it right back to the place, easy

874
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,280
in and out, you avoid all the traffic. It's amazing.

875
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,960
But here's the best part. When you get to the

876
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,400
place before the concert, you can order a huge deep

877
00:42:13,519 --> 00:42:18,679
dish pizza. They keep it for you, and when you

878
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,920
come back from the concert, they have your pizza waiting

879
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:28,360
for you. You're leftover pizza when you get back. It's brilliant.

880
00:42:29,519 --> 00:42:34,800
I can never do another concert without coming without it.

881
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,639
Speaker 2: On demand pizza pizza like.

882
00:42:37,639 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 1: Literally walk in and they were like, oh hey, guys, hey,

883
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,199
we got your pizza ready. We were like, what is this?

884
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,760
Is this heaven? This is like the scene in Happy

885
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,880
Gilmour when he goes to his happy place, Like this

886
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,480
is the this is the most amazing thing ever.

887
00:42:53,079 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 4: A place certainly includes pizza as well, andy.

888
00:42:57,199 --> 00:43:00,679
Speaker 1: Pizza before and after the concert. So yeah, shout out

889
00:43:00,679 --> 00:43:03,280
to Saxony's it was an amazing thing. But yeah, that

890
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,920
is the key to enjoying a concert. Pizza before and

891
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,679
after waiting for you insane insane. All right, guys, let's

892
00:43:09,679 --> 00:43:11,719
gonna do it for us. Dana is traveling, so we'll

893
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,559
be back Wednesday to break down to the next season

894
00:43:13,599 --> 00:43:15,800
win total for the Chargers. And if you're watching this

895
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:20,639
you're interested in being a wager talk YouTuber insider, you

896
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get all the benefits. You get the cool emojis, badges,

897
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special features, shout outs, all that. But it's only two

898
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dollars a month, and starting on the first all members

899
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will be given a five dollars coupon that's good for

900
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that month and each month after that, So you're gonna

901
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get more perks, You're gonna get some more specialized content.

902
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Once we start that out, but it's only two dollars

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a month, and you get five dollars a coupon just

904
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you three dollars in wager bucks just to become a

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up WT dot Buzz Slash Insiders and become one of

909
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the VIPs here. So I already Seejave, I already see

910
00:43:59,639 --> 00:44:02,760
hobve in here as a starred member. Shout out to

911
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,679
Hovey see Hobby gets his question asked. Andy gets a

912
00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:09,760
solo video made just after the show. So Sean wants

913
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,199
to know if I pay the two dollars, Well, Dan

914
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:17,280
sing me happy birthday, I gladly. Yeah sure, But Sean,

915
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:20,280
you only get one birthday year. Okay, yeah, like you

916
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:21,840
can't say may.

917
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 2: It doesn't get yeah, it doesn't get to keep getting

918
00:44:23,559 --> 00:44:24,800
keep ringing on the same bell.

919
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:30,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, yeah, absolutely absolutely So, all right, it's Monday.

920
00:44:30,079 --> 00:44:33,880
We got a great week ahead of us. Listen NFL Week.

921
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,119
Your NFL season officially kicks off this week, so get

922
00:44:37,159 --> 00:44:40,199
ready for more college football content. Get ready for CFL

923
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,599
w NBA, MLB, UFC. We got a huge, huge week

924
00:44:43,639 --> 00:44:46,480
here on wager Talk today. While you're leaving, please hit

925
00:44:46,519 --> 00:44:48,800
that like button, subscribe to the channel, leave us a comment,

926
00:44:49,079 --> 00:44:51,199
tell us your best bet for tonight. Let's get after

927
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,320
it tomorrow and five dollars Tuesday. Good luck on your

928
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:54,599
bets today and take care.