Speaker 1: What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to
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smartphone or tablet, and again, thank you so much for
your support. Elizabeth Staffer, writing over at Legal Insurrection about
Trump's tariff war, I thought that this was uh oh yeah,
hang on a second. I'm busy. Wait, something's going on
with all of our phones. They're all busy. What's going on?
All right, there we go. Sorry. So, she writes that
China has several tools at its disposal to retaliate against
the United States. It's already taken steps to restrict the
export of critical rare earth minerals, and has attempted to
rally support among allies and neighboring nations. But she says,
as the junior power in the US China relationship, and
as the surplus nation whose economic rise has been fueled
in part by intellectual property theft and other coercive practices.
China also faces significant vulnerabilities. The Trump administration is currently
engaged in trade negotiation with representatives from one hundred and
thirty different nations. Okay, now this now keep that in mind,
because in an op ed on Monday, Victor David Hanson
made the case. He's a historian and conservative commentator. He
made the case that China will lose the trade war
with the US, and that it would happen gradually and
then suddenly. I've talked about that pattern too. It's a
cascade effect, slowly at first, then very quickly. When nations
are forced to choose between a rogue economic actor and
a flawed but fairer partner with unmatched global power, they
are far far more likely to choose the latter, which
is US. China has behaved very badly in international trade,
and every other country that does trade with China knows this.
Hanson concedes that China can inflict short term damage on
the United States, particularly through a halt in exports of
pharmaceuticals and rare earth metals. He writes, quote, if China
really does reduce most of its exports to the US,
America will have to scramble for probably a year or
so to establish new supply chains and some alternate importers
of US products. But after a year of gradual dislocation,
China will begin to hemorrhage. And then suddenly, given the
US has almost all of the advantages, if it chooses
to use them right, it'll slowly start hemorrhaging, and then
quite suddenly China is running a nearly one trillion dollar
trade surplus with the world, which is the result of
market manipulations, product dumping, asymmetrical tariffs, patent theft, copyright theft,
tech theft, a corrupt Chinese judicial system what you might
call bullying. Okay, this will make it difficult for China
to claim victimhood when the tariffs and surpluses illustrate a
contrived trade aggression by the tycoms. He goes on to
say this again, Victor David Hanson. If the Trump administration
can conclude first round good enough but not yet perfect
trade deals in the next couple of weeks, and they
get these deals with major EU countries, Japan, other Asian
and Pacific powerhouses, and then they can readdirect to China,
the administration will gain both political support and economic advantage.
Now again, this is from Legal Insurrection by Elizabeth Stauffer
or Stauffer, she says, beyond China's current economic troubles and
Trump's newly declared terror for China faces a deeper challenge,
a more intractable one, one that no amount of control
by a communist, you know, authoritarian government can actually resolve.
It is a demographic death spiral. Demographic death spiral. This
is what happens when the replacement rate of a nation
is not high enough. And the demographers people who do
you know, demographic research and stuff, and they know what
these numbers are, and they know when your fertility rate
goes too low, then you're not replacing your population and
your population dies out. And you'll recall this has been
a problem. I think people have long recognized Japan as
one of the worst afflicted nations regarding the demographic death
spiral because again, like you start, the numbers go down
and then you know, slowly at first, then very quickly.
Again it's because as your population ages, there are not
enough people to take care of them. There are enough
people in the workforce to be able to afford all
of the government services and stuff, and everything starts contracting.
So there was an op ed written by a Chinese demographer, author,
and activist name is Ye Fujian, and it was called
the End of the Chinese Dream, and he talked about,
you know, the comparison between Japan and China, and he
talked about how and I remember this as when I
was growing up, you know, that Japan was going to
buy everything, they were going to take over everything. They
bought Rockefeller Center and oh my gosh, they're taking everything over,
you know, And people were really worried about it because
by nineteen ninety five, the GDP of Japan VERSUS America
had grown from like nine percent in the sixties up
to seventy three percent. They were catching us, right, and
they were growing faster when we were like, oh my gosh,
oh my gosh, just as we consider China to be
our chief rival today, back in nineteen eighty nine, Americans
were more worried about the threat posed by Japan than
the military threat posed by the Soviet Union. But it
didn't work out that way, right. They learned the hard
way in Japan that demographics matter. Japan's ratio of working
age people to those over sixty five years old fell
below that of the US in the nineties, and that's
when their GDP growth slowed down. That's why, like I've
seen stories of these, you know, Japanese warehouse workers that
are being equipped with exoskeletons, robotic exoskeletons, so it so
the robots actually do the lifting for them because the
workers are too old, they're in their sixties, and they
cannot lift the heavy weights any longer in the warehouses,
and they don't have enough people to go to work
in the warehouses, and so they're developing this technology that
they then you know, strap on these like arm attachments
and back attachments and leg attachments and you kind of
walk around like a iron man, and then the machine
does most of the lifting. So this demographer emphasized that
while comparisons to the nineteen nineties Japan are frequent, China
faces an even bleaker future because its fertility rate is
even lower than Japan's. In twenty twenty ten, twenty twenty two,
so like in ten year increments, the Japanese fertility rate
was one point three six, that's children per woman one
point three six, and then went up to one point
three nine, then dropped back down to one point twenty
six China's over the same three decade comparative. China's was
one point two to two back in two thousand, it
dropped to one point one eight in twenty ten, and
right now it stands at one point h five. It's
now struggling to stabilize its fertility rate, which is now
estimated at two point eight percent, so not even a
one to one child per woman ratio. That's less than
half of what's called the replacement rate. The replacement rate
is two point one. That's how you you're replacing. Right,
man and woman, they make two kids, now you're replacing
your population. That's the minimum. Its prime age labor force
has been shrinking since twenty twelve, not coincidentally, when it's
three decade run of double digit GDP growth ended. Why well, again,
for people of a certain age like myself, we remember
China's one child policy. You were only allowed to have
one and that's why they were murdering all of their
female daughters. They were having abortions if it was female.
If the baby was born it was female, they would
they would throw it away, they would discard it, they
would kill it because they wanted the ma and that
one child policy ran from nineteen seventy nine to twenty fifteen.
And this is what she says, is directly to blame
for their point eight fertility rate. And that's a problem.
That is a big problem for a very big country.
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Dot com Denny says the immigration craze has got me
a little confused. I still don't have a good answer
to the question. Is an immigrant with an NTA noticed
to appear with a date seven or so years out,
for example, in the United States illegally and therefore deportable?
Please comment, thanks and keep up the great content. If
they haven't notice to appear, so you say, so they've
come in. I think it would depend on how they
came in because there are all these different programs that
that Biden implemented through the app claiming asylum and everything else.
So yeah, I don't know. I don't know if they're
immediately deportable before an NTA a notice to appear before
their court appearance, I don't know. Again, I'm not an
immigration attorney, So the practical mechanisms that are at play here,
I do not know the answer to that. But I
think you know a way to answer the question would
be to ramp up the immigration courts to clear out
the backlog, and the backlog exists because the system was
purposefully intentionally overwhelmed. Right now that the system is under control,
the border is under control, now you can hopefully catch up.
Like that's the idea. So, yeah, it's a good question, Denny.
I wish I knew the answer for you. All right.
So Daniel Darling over at the National Review had a
really good piece and it's about the Easter reminder of
why man needs God. He starts off talking about the
Khmer Rouge, which is kind of a weird place to start, right,
the Cambodian death cult, polepot right, one of history's bloodiest rulers.
And he says though that the ideology that inspired him, right, Marxism,
Karl Marx, the godfather of the ideology that would motivate
polepot also Lenin and Mao and softer versions that have
crept into the West. Marx famously blamed religion for holding
humans back from their full potential. Right, you've heard the
famous you know, opium of the people. The full quote
is religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the
heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions.
It is the opium of the people. If we just
got rid of that, then the revolution would succeed. But
as the twentieth century embraced those ideas and the body
counts piled up around the world, it would be a
Soviet dissident who expressed the cruel torture of the Gulag
who would understand the perversity of this entire project. The
guy's name Alexander Sultsanitsen. He said, I have spent well
nigh fifty years working on the history of our revolution.
In the process, I have read hundreds of books, collected
hundreds of personal testimonies, and have already contributed eight volumes
of my own toward the effort of clearing away the
rubble left by that upheaval. But if I were asked
today to formulate as incisely as possible the main cause
of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some sixty million
of our people, I would not put it more accurately
than to repeat, men have forgotten God, That's why all
this happened. His words, according to Daniel Darling, were not
merely a lament for his beloved Russia, but also a
warning for the West, and he could not have been
more precient. In the nearly four decades since he delivered
his address, America and other leading nations have been pushing
Christianity to the margins while living off the fumes of
its benefits. It turns out that mere modernity, with its
technological advancements, has left many people in a state of
digitized misery, comforts at our fingertips, but missing the guiding
hand of God. It's no secret that has church such
attendance has fallen. Indexes of loneliness and despair have risen dramatically.
The bonds of faith and family and community have been
broken in our atomized world. The ordered liberty envisioned by
the founders of America, the twin liberties of sorry, twin
spirits of liberty and religion that were described by Alexis Dtaueville,
the guy who said America is great because Americans are good.
We band together in civic organizations and churches. We see
a problem, we get together with our neighbors. We go
about fixing the problem. We don't rely on government to
do it for us. That was Detouville. But perhaps there
might be cracks in the secular ceiling. So do not
despair where the light of the supernatural is breaking through.
Since twenty nineteen, the decline in the number of Americans
who claim religious adherents has leveled off. So it's not continue,
it's not still dropping, it's it's plateaued. And there are
signs that church attendants, especially among millennials and Gen z,
is now on the rise. You've heard stories, you know, anecdotal,
but still are these like revival like experiences that have
been reported across college campuses. Darling says he's spoken with
pastors across the country and he's hearing reports of overflowing
church services on Sunday and dramatic conversions. What's more, he says,
something is happening in the intellectual class, which was once
overtaken by New atheism in the wake of nine to eleven.
This was always one of those things, you know, the
new atheist movement. They never did produce for us the
infrastructure that they said could be produced absent God, absent religion,
whatever became of that, says, that's the whole point, like
the whole idea. It's always interesting talking to atheists about
you know, natural law and stuff like that, because if
you don't believe that you have inherently these rights because
you are made in the image and likeness of God.
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memories that'll last a lifetime. So back to this piece
from Daniel Darling at the National Review. He talks about
something happening among the quote intellectual class that was once
overtaken by new atheism. The most dramatic conversion story is
that of Ion Heresy Ali, who was one on a
bright light among the skeptics and now a forceful advocate
for Christianity. She is joined by Nile Ferguson, Rosalynd Picard,
Paul Kingsnorth, and others. Even Richard Dawkins, a virulent critic
of Christianity, has admitted that he would rather live in
a society that is shaped by Christianity. The intellectual reversals
are met by a new openness to faith among the
nation's top media outlets, particularly in the podcasting genre, where
hosts like Joe Rogan and Sean Ryan regularly feature long
conversations with Christian apologists, and one cannot dismiss the growing
boldness of Christian athletes in college and professional sports. He
goes on to say that the myth that societies can
flourish without faith is becoming less palatable to a brand
new generation. Humans by design are worshiping beings. It's in
our nature. No matter what forces may align to crush
faith in the supernatural, yearning for God will endure. By
the way, this is why I believe people behave the
way they do with regard to climate alarmism. It's a
supplanting of God Gaia Earth. Right. This does not mean
that Christianity's adherents are always the best messengers. Part of
what motivated new atheism were scandals of the institutional church
and of religious fanaticism that manifests in violence. And what
of the evil like poul pot that a good God allows. Right,
This is where the story at the heart of this
season helps us make our way through the spiritual fog.
He says, Easter is not the story of humans perfecting
themselves through moral improvement, but the rescue of morally deficient people.
From themselves. Failing flawed Christians are part of the plot.
The Passion narrative is God coming in the flesh to
defeat the sin and death that humans themselves brought on
the world. It is wretched sinners aware of their wretchedness
at the mercy of a holy God. Easter, rather than
paint pastels over the reality of evil, takes us into
the heart of darkness, on that dreadful night, where the
innocent Son of God is beaten and disfigured, not for
crimes he committed, but for the sin that lurks in
every human heart. Those who question the reality of God
in a world of evil must not only recognize that
the definition of evil comes from God, but also that
the Christian story claims Christ defeated evil on that day
and that there is a God coming in judgment one
day for the polepots of this world, who, rather than
beg for mercy before a savior, thumb their nose in
opposition to their creator. Easter matches the ugliness of the
world with the ugliness of the Cross, and pairs the
faint and false hopes of moral improvement with the triumph
of Jesus's resurrection. This is what utopian Marxism can never provide.
This is the longing that modernity and science and technology,
for all of their benefits, they just cannot satisfy. Societies,
of course, can find the personal salvation the Gospel offers.
Faith can't be Oh sorry sorry. Societies cannot find the
personal salvation. They cannot be forced. Faith cannot be forced. Right,
It's an act of your own, your conscience. But when
people move away from themselves and towards God, that is
good for the nation. You can read the whole piece
at National Review National Review Online by Daniel Darling. It's
called The Easter Reminder of Why Man Needs God. I
wholeheartedly endorse it. All right, Up next, we're going to
have Brett Winterble in studio, a little thing we like
to call pregaming because I always join him for the
first part of his show on Friday, which we call
the hangover because I hangover to talk with him, not
because we're getting completely smashed, although that might make for
an interesting segment. All right, if you're listening to this show,
you know I try to keep up with all sorts
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It's Friday final segment of the program, and that means
we did do a little pregaming with Brett Winterbill. You
can hear them here on WBT immediately following my show.
In case you're listening right now on a podcast three
until seven pm weekdays on WBT Brett Winnable. How art
thou sar?
Speaker 2: Ah, It's great, I'm awesome. How are you? Well?
Speaker 1: You're always awesome. You are awesome. Oh you are.
Speaker 2: I appreciate Yeah, you are, and you are as well.
Speaker 1: Well, thank you. I appreciate that. And I feel like
you're just saying that because I said it first. But
that's okay, I'll take it.
Speaker 2: You're even more awesome.
Speaker 1: Okay, now you're you got to maintain your credibility. So
before you came in, I was talking about this piece
at National Review about the Easter Reminder of why man
needs God. And in the piece they talk about younger
people now starting to go to church again, and maybe
some of this is always the case in crises. Remember
after nine to eleven there was a lot of people
going back to church. But I got a message from Mark.
Have you ever seen Jordan Peterson in person in one
of his events?
Speaker 2: I haven't seen him at his events, but I've seen
him like video and things like that.
Speaker 1: Right right, right, So he came to Charlotte and Mark
said that he and his wife went there and saw
him and They were amazed by the amount of young
people that were there, especially young men. And in the
piece they talked about ion her cl e. She's now
converted to Christianity. Do you think that there is something
happening where because Peterson has even now acknowledged he as Christian,
like he avoided it for a while, but he's like
now said, yes, I adhere to Christianity, and he ties
a lot of his you know, talks about responsibility and
what it means to be you know, an adult and
a man, and all of this stuff to the Christian tenets.
Do you think that we're seeing something shift in our
society or maybe globally or something.
Speaker 2: Yes, you know, oh, without a doubt, Absolutely without a doubt,
because we have lived in such a neolistic environment.
Speaker 1: Yes, for a I mean since Marks.
Speaker 2: Really since Marks, that's true. And you can only thrive
on that bridge for so long because there we know
what the what are the wages of sin, death right?
And so if you turn your back on a faith,
on your faith, and in this case I'm speaking about Christianity,
it will always come back to you. You have the
yearning in your heart for it. You can ignore it,
you can do drugs. You can be an alcoholic, you
can be crazy, you can you know, and just not
be able to connect.
Speaker 1: To it or in my case, all the above.
Speaker 2: Well that's that's that's that's entirely possible. But I think, yeah, absolutely,
I believe it. I mean I look, I you know,
I I've got a lot of faith in the uh
in the future. Like I don't. I don't think we're
anywhere near done, Like, no way, because we can, people
can come back.
Speaker 1: Do you think that's because you're just a generally optimistic
person if you are, do you think you're an optimistic.
Speaker 2: I'm a really pessimistic person. Really, Yeah, by.
Speaker 1: And large, you don't strike me as a peasant.
Speaker 2: I'm Dallas Cowboys fan. Okay, Well, so I mean I
mean I was Look, look, I always expect to get
just completely sold out, and then when everything that's good
is good, yeah, oh without a doubt, I'm like, yeah,
this is great. So I mean, if you're if you're
if you're if you're par you're great. I mean, you
just par plus one. You got it going on. But
I mean a lot of times you get you get
this demoralized, like looking at these crazy people that run
around and do terrible things.
Speaker 1: Speaking of Yes, sir, have you heard of the twenty
four year old American YouTuber named Mikailo Viktorovich, Paul Yokovic
or polk How am I supposed to search that name? Yeah,
but he's a YouTuber?
Speaker 2: Okay?
Speaker 1: Twenty four years old?
Speaker 2: Yep?
Speaker 1: He got arrested for what for visiting an island?
Speaker 2: Which island? Is it?
Speaker 1: North Sentinel? Island?
Speaker 2: North Sentinel?
Speaker 1: So off the coast of India.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's the guy who wanted to leave a diet
coke and yes, did the murder? They'll murder you if
you go near them, right? Okay?
Speaker 1: Did you talk about this?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: I saw the story today.
Speaker 2: Are you sure you didn't talk about this like a
couple of weeks ago?
Speaker 1: No, I'm positive. Why are you listening to other shows?
Besides my mind?
Speaker 2: There's no why I don't watch it. I mean I
don't listen to anything, you know what? For real?
Speaker 1: I swear No, I haven't talked about this. So the
details are. He has to appear before a local court
in Port Blair, the capitol of India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
He is from Scottsdale, Arizona. Of course, right. Mikailo Viktorovich Polyakov,
classic Scottsdale name. He was arrested March thirty, first, two
days after he set foot on the restricted territory of
North Sentinel Island in a bid to meet people from
the reclusive Sentinel's He left a can of diet coke
and a coconut. Yes, where the heck as an offering?
Speaker 2: Where it was on your so dang it.
Speaker 1: But he failed to connect with the tribe, which is
actually a good thing because anytime this tribe encounters people
that wash up on their shores, they murder them. What
do you think he was trying to do there? I
have a theory.
Speaker 2: Internet famous.
Speaker 1: Ah, that's solid, that's solid. What's the last name Polyakov?
Speaker 2: Well, he was probably trying to get his Polyochov.
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, all right, that's I already shut down
my computer. I have no ribshot for you.
Speaker 2: Now you're now you're no longer an optimist. Now you're
a pessimist because of what I just said.
Speaker 1: So I don't know what he was trying to do,
but I have a theory, diet coke and a coconut.
Speaker 2: Diet coconut coconut.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you could think of Hunter Biden.
But you're close. No, that was not left. It was
a coconut or should I say a coconut?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I honestly die coke is associated with which political figure?
Speaker 2: With Donald Trump? There you go? Okay, so Donald Trump,
and what's the coconut for?
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris? A coconut tree?
Speaker 2: You hurt my head?
Speaker 1: I think he was trying to, like.
Speaker 2: Oh, ask him, like who do you want?
Speaker 1: It could have been a pole. He could have been
polling them to find out who they liked. Or maybe
it was like I don't want to offend either one
of them, like because they could be Trumpers, they could
be Harris heads. I don't know, did they? So I'm
going to give you peace offerings representing the two parts
of American political culture.
Speaker 2: Okay, So was the coconut cut in half like where
you could drink out of it?
Speaker 1: Or is it that's a good question.
Speaker 2: Was it just a weapon? Maybe that's why they wanted
to kill him.
Speaker 1: Do they have coconuts on North Sentinel Islands because that
would be kind of lame, like you show up with
a coconut, but they got coconuts everywhere.
Speaker 2: You reckon the ecology right that place. Yeah, you're a
special place.
Speaker 1: You gave us something we already had.
Speaker 2: It's like, are they cannibals?
Speaker 1: I don't know. If they eat the people. I don't
think so. Because in twenty eighteen, an American missionary landed
illegally on the beach and was killed. They shot him
with arrows and then buried his body on the beach.
Speaker 2: That's actually that's a pretty open minded kind of position
because you're actually burying them, You're not just letting them
rot or eating them.
Speaker 1: Interestingly, like, this is a culture that has been cut
off from the rest of the world for thousands of years.
I don't believe it.
Speaker 2: I bet there was somebody there in the eighteen hundreds
that nobody ever said anything about.
Speaker 1: I wonder that too, because yeah, it's like Ponzi schemes.
And had they come up with had they come up
with North Sentinel Island, because that doesn't sound like thousands
of year old? Now what they call it? What did
they call it?
Speaker 2: I don't know. They call it whatever they call it
in their own language, you know, I mean, everybody's.
Speaker 1: They killed two fishermen who accidentally landed on shore too.
I don't know if they buried their bodies or not.
But the guy stay, this guy Polyakov. He stayed on
the beach for about an hour. He blew a whistle
to attract attention.
Speaker 2: Geez, what a nut?
Speaker 1: Got no response, what a coconut. He got spotted by
some local fishermen who then ratted him out, and that's
why he's now in court. That's it.
Speaker 2: That sounds like that sounds like there should be a
song played after that story.
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for this episode. Thank you
so much for listening. I could not do the show
without your support and the support of the businesses that
advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, please support
them too and tell them you heard it here. You
can also become a patron at my Patreon page or
go to dpetekallanershow dot com. Again, thank you so much
for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.