WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:03.560 And they only have a one track economy energy infrastructure, 2 00:00:04.000 --> 00:00:06.879 so he wanted that because that's the one thing that 3 00:00:06.919 --> 00:00:10.599 would advantage him. And then all the other things you said, 4 00:00:11.039 --> 00:00:14.880 it's complete Maximus, giveaway nothing, ask for everything, and then 5 00:00:14.880 --> 00:00:16.440 try to get the other side to fight each other. 6 00:00:16.640 --> 00:00:18.839 They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other 7 00:00:18.879 --> 00:00:24.079 because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking. 8 00:00:23.839 --> 00:00:25.440 Points, which even. 9 00:00:27.079 --> 00:00:28.480 I mean, obviously we should be on the side of 10 00:00:28.480 --> 00:00:30.760 the crade, but even if we're just a mediator, right, 11 00:00:31.000 --> 00:00:37.840 you don't repeat any side talking points. That's not the point, okay, Right, 12 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:42.560 you go in, especially in public, as a mediator, you 13 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:44.119 just keep talking about the instinate. 14 00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:50.079 Hey, guys, I want to take a moment to tell 15 00:00:50.119 --> 00:00:53.600 you about tonight's sponsor for the show, which is Ridge Wallets. 16 00:00:54.280 --> 00:00:57.039 I've been using this for about six months now. Really 17 00:00:57.159 --> 00:01:00.000 enjoy it. This wallet is made out of carbon fire, 18 00:01:00.399 --> 00:01:04.000 titanium and steel and it really holds up and lasts. 19 00:01:04.359 --> 00:01:08.120 So you know, in the past, I carried a leather wallet. 20 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:11.439 You know, it's made by you know professional has a 21 00:01:11.439 --> 00:01:14.439 small shop and makes does leather work. 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This also makes a great gift. 55 00:02:59.759 --> 00:03:02.759 My girlfriend has one of these, My stepfather has one 56 00:03:02.800 --> 00:03:06.319 of these, so I've given them away too, and our 57 00:03:06.360 --> 00:03:09.599 producer Dmitri has one, So please go and check out 58 00:03:09.680 --> 00:03:21.560 Ridge Wallains. 59 00:03:22.039 --> 00:03:25.879 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Dimitri. 60 00:03:26.080 --> 00:03:30.439 Here with McK molroy, Andy Milburn, uh Locke cooking since 61 00:03:30.520 --> 00:03:34.639 we've last had an episode, So you know, get a 62 00:03:34.680 --> 00:03:38.080 comfortable seat, sit back and relax because the world's falling apart. 63 00:03:38.120 --> 00:03:43.439 I'm just joking, not really. The big news coming out 64 00:03:43.439 --> 00:03:48.280 of the US is it seems like the rhetoric uh 65 00:03:49.199 --> 00:03:51.280 that's coming out is that the US is gearing up 66 00:03:51.319 --> 00:03:54.520 for a possible air strike or air strikes on Iranian 67 00:03:54.599 --> 00:04:00.120 nuclear facilities. It started earlier this week with US bombarding 68 00:04:00.240 --> 00:04:03.360 the Iranian backed Toothy's. I love when like media companies 69 00:04:03.360 --> 00:04:06.280 say that that's like they got like a notice from 70 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:08.719 wherever they get a notice from that, they always have 71 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:11.439 to say Iran back Toothi's uh. 72 00:04:12.319 --> 00:04:13.520 And they've been hitting the hoothies. 73 00:04:13.599 --> 00:04:16.720 I feel like it's been harder than other air strikes 74 00:04:16.720 --> 00:04:19.079 that we've seen over the last year or so, since 75 00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:25.519 they've been screwing around, uh in the Red Sea. Yeah, 76 00:04:25.560 --> 00:04:27.240 let's just start with that because everything kind of like 77 00:04:27.439 --> 00:04:30.079 entangles into each other, like, and Israel is signing a 78 00:04:30.079 --> 00:04:33.040 delegation to DC this week to talk about an attack plan, 79 00:04:33.120 --> 00:04:35.839 whether the US is involved directly or it gives Israel 80 00:04:35.839 --> 00:04:38.439 the green light to just let them go with. I'm 81 00:04:38.480 --> 00:04:41.399 sure support from US because you know, Israel is like 82 00:04:41.439 --> 00:04:43.680 clamoring for it, you know, hitting Iran. 83 00:04:44.319 --> 00:04:44.439 Uh. 84 00:04:44.720 --> 00:04:46.560 So, Mick, what do you got on this? Like, what 85 00:04:46.600 --> 00:04:50.319 are you tracking? Oh, there's a lot to cover there, Yes, 86 00:04:50.519 --> 00:04:51.319 there's quite a lot. 87 00:04:51.639 --> 00:04:55.839 Absolutely, let's start with the houthis so on sorrow Lot 88 00:04:55.879 --> 00:05:00.759 that's the other that's their name actually, as you said, 89 00:05:00.879 --> 00:05:03.360 or on back they are a proxy. Everran They're not 90 00:05:03.439 --> 00:05:05.600 the greatest proxy everon if there was a scale, I 91 00:05:05.600 --> 00:05:07.600 think Hesbelo would be on the top as far as 92 00:05:08.199 --> 00:05:10.560 being able to direct them and take an orders, et cetera. 93 00:05:10.560 --> 00:05:13.240 The Houthis are a bit of a wild card, but 94 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:15.680 they are or an hand back and a proxy, and 95 00:05:16.519 --> 00:05:23.079 ultimately Iran has the influence if it's not just stop 96 00:05:23.199 --> 00:05:26.560 giving them weapons systems that they can hit ships with. Right, 97 00:05:26.639 --> 00:05:29.920 So you got to you gotta be a little skeptical 98 00:05:29.959 --> 00:05:31.639 of Iran's claims. 99 00:05:31.240 --> 00:05:33.759 That they don't have the influence they have. 100 00:05:34.480 --> 00:05:37.959 So I would first start with commending the current administration 101 00:05:38.399 --> 00:05:42.560 with taking a harder stance in my view against the Huthis. 102 00:05:43.480 --> 00:05:44.839 Not only have they been. 103 00:05:46.480 --> 00:05:51.759 A threat to us UH military assets, which includes of course, 104 00:05:52.480 --> 00:05:59.319 are sailors, soldiers, airmen, and marines, they have been conducting 105 00:05:59.360 --> 00:06:04.319 direct terrace attacks against commercial vessels, killing and injuring civilians 106 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:06.519 that have nothing to do with any of the conflicts 107 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:09.279 going on. And it's important to point out they were 108 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:11.360 doing a lot of this before the war and Gaza 109 00:06:11.480 --> 00:06:16.120 even started, so they use that as their reasoning behind it, 110 00:06:16.160 --> 00:06:19.680 but they were doing this prior to that even happening. 111 00:06:20.160 --> 00:06:22.759 So I think it's time that we take all the 112 00:06:22.800 --> 00:06:28.000 necessary military steps to degrade them to a point of 113 00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:32.160 being unable to continue the attacks. They're never going to 114 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:37.040 change their philosophy unattacking the US and Israel. It's literally 115 00:06:37.040 --> 00:06:40.879 in their national motto. But we can take we can 116 00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:43.879 kill all the leadership, and we can destroy their ability 117 00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:50.120 to attack innocent civilians board commercial vessels, which of course 118 00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:52.639 this region about forty percent of the energy of the 119 00:06:52.639 --> 00:06:55.959 world comes out of this region. It's mostly dependent on 120 00:06:56.040 --> 00:07:00.040 by the Indo Pacific region, not US, so good on 121 00:07:00.079 --> 00:07:02.839 them for that. Some would say this could also be 122 00:07:03.519 --> 00:07:07.360 a reason to flow a lot of assets. Some you 123 00:07:07.480 --> 00:07:11.240 just mentioned the USS Carl Vinson is also steaming from 124 00:07:11.240 --> 00:07:14.319 the Pacific to the Middle East to link up with 125 00:07:14.360 --> 00:07:17.800 the Truman, another aircraft carrier. So we're putting a lot 126 00:07:17.800 --> 00:07:22.079 of regional assets out there, which I think sends a 127 00:07:22.120 --> 00:07:25.839 signal both to the Houthis in the signal being we're gonna, 128 00:07:26.439 --> 00:07:30.000 you know, attack you harder than you've been attacked before, 129 00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:32.439 but also a signal to Iran that you see how 130 00:07:32.480 --> 00:07:37.000 we're dismantling your proxy force here if you don't come 131 00:07:37.040 --> 00:07:41.839 to the negotiation table for JCPOA two point zero or 132 00:07:41.839 --> 00:07:44.680 whatever we're going to call it, which hopefully will include 133 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:48.759 addressing Iran's use of proxy forces in the region as 134 00:07:48.759 --> 00:07:50.040 well as nuclear ambitions. 135 00:07:50.759 --> 00:07:51.759 Then you could be next. 136 00:07:51.759 --> 00:07:53.839 So I think that I think there is a very 137 00:07:54.079 --> 00:07:56.160 I don't obviously no decision has been made yet, I 138 00:07:56.160 --> 00:07:58.879 don't think, but I think there's a very real possibility 139 00:07:58.920 --> 00:08:02.839 that the US could be looking at if orn has 140 00:08:02.839 --> 00:08:07.319 a breakout toward a nuclear weapon they have, they could 141 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:09.720 easily get to the amount of enrichment they need. They 142 00:08:09.720 --> 00:08:12.399 have to come up with the triggering mechanism, which they 143 00:08:12.399 --> 00:08:15.480 could get from Russia or North Korea. But if they 144 00:08:15.519 --> 00:08:17.399 do that, I do think there's a real possibility that 145 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:22.480 the United States, either in conjunction with or laterly strikes 146 00:08:22.480 --> 00:08:27.959 the facilities and Tons and the other nuclear facilities you mentioned. 147 00:08:30.199 --> 00:08:30.480 Ai. 148 00:08:32.159 --> 00:08:35.120 Yeah, I agree with with Mick that the strikes on 149 00:08:35.159 --> 00:08:42.159 the WHO these are you know, renewed strikes or they're overdue. 150 00:08:42.440 --> 00:08:45.679 But the concern has never been so much the number 151 00:08:45.679 --> 00:08:48.320 of sorties were flying against the who thy's it's been 152 00:08:49.639 --> 00:08:55.600 it's been having intelligence that is useful enough to result 153 00:08:55.799 --> 00:08:59.799 in real time targeting. In other words, just the nature 154 00:09:00.080 --> 00:09:03.600 of who the operations means that no matter how sophisticated 155 00:09:03.639 --> 00:09:06.759 or intelligence is, they are able to shoot and scoot 156 00:09:07.519 --> 00:09:12.279 and clear the area before we can cause really serious damage. 157 00:09:12.320 --> 00:09:15.200 And now that's you know, we are plinking away and 158 00:09:15.240 --> 00:09:19.279 we are causing casualties, and you know, essentially we're creating 159 00:09:19.759 --> 00:09:22.799 a tremendous attrition for them. So one hopes they cannot 160 00:09:22.879 --> 00:09:26.360 sustain these efforts for long. But they did fire another 161 00:09:26.480 --> 00:09:31.120 rocket at I'm missing at Israel the other day, so 162 00:09:31.639 --> 00:09:34.759 you know they aren't. They aren't yet completely on the ropes. 163 00:09:35.240 --> 00:09:39.279 And it is the way we're doing things. Again, that's 164 00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:41.759 the only thing that we can do. This isn't a criticism, 165 00:09:41.799 --> 00:09:45.159 but it is. It is inefficient and it isn't as 166 00:09:45.279 --> 00:09:50.399 effective as it may appear. And to really go after 167 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:52.279 the heart of the problem would be bring pressure and 168 00:09:52.360 --> 00:09:55.759 Iran and so I you know, it's hard to tell 169 00:09:55.759 --> 00:09:58.559 what the administration is thinking, but definitely that must be 170 00:09:58.639 --> 00:10:02.320 foremost in their mind. The same same time, to mixed point, 171 00:10:02.600 --> 00:10:06.440 you know, Iran by the end, it's certainly you know, 172 00:10:06.480 --> 00:10:14.519 the last by the last information that that the IAEA has, 173 00:10:14.639 --> 00:10:17.759 it's the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran was able to 174 00:10:18.200 --> 00:10:23.080 was producing about seven kilograms of uranium and rich to 175 00:10:23.159 --> 00:10:26.799 sixty percent, which is just below weapons grade every month, 176 00:10:27.120 --> 00:10:29.480 which would be enough to make about two nuclear bombs 177 00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:33.320 per year if enriched further. Okay, So that was towards 178 00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:38.000 the end of last year. Since then, the i e 179 00:10:38.440 --> 00:10:42.919 IAA says that their their intelligence, their information has kind 180 00:10:42.919 --> 00:10:45.440 of dried up. At the same time, the Israelis are 181 00:10:45.519 --> 00:10:51.159 saying open source, their intelligence guys are saying that they 182 00:10:51.360 --> 00:10:55.600 are certain that the Iranians are making a determined approach 183 00:10:55.759 --> 00:11:00.639 for breakout, that they are doubling up on their centrifuge activity, 184 00:11:01.200 --> 00:11:04.639 and that more perhaps even more worryingly, they've moved their 185 00:11:04.679 --> 00:11:10.200 centrifuges into areas that are deeper than before. 186 00:11:10.320 --> 00:11:11.639 Let me just say that. 187 00:11:11.559 --> 00:11:16.759 Much, okay, and so kind of interesting. Hubarak, who's a 188 00:11:16.840 --> 00:11:21.440 former Israeli Prime minister and was until recently a firm 189 00:11:21.480 --> 00:11:26.120 advocate of the Israelis going after kinetically, going after the 190 00:11:26.200 --> 00:11:29.200 Iran's nuclear capability, is now singly doesn't think it's going 191 00:11:29.240 --> 00:11:32.840 to take do any good. That the Irans program's now 192 00:11:32.879 --> 00:11:37.480 to advanced, too deeply buried to take out without US help, 193 00:11:37.720 --> 00:11:41.960 all right, without bunker busting bombs. As the media likes 194 00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:46.559 to say, so that what is all this put it? 195 00:11:46.639 --> 00:11:50.759 Oh the other thing is, do you remember back in 196 00:11:51.559 --> 00:12:01.159 twenty twenty, the Israelis killed the most prominent Iranian physicist, 197 00:12:01.279 --> 00:12:02.600 you know, I mean it was the end of her. 198 00:12:03.039 --> 00:12:05.159 It was it was a culmination of a campaign of 199 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:08.559 going after a nuclear physicists. But this guy, his name 200 00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:12.879 was Mosen I'm going to mispronounce it far is Ida 201 00:12:13.840 --> 00:12:16.600 and and and they took him out using that it 202 00:12:16.679 --> 00:12:19.639 was like an automatic machine gun. It was a very 203 00:12:19.720 --> 00:12:25.039 unusual type operation. And the problem is now apparently, and 204 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:27.120 this is according to the Israelis, that there are now 205 00:12:27.399 --> 00:12:30.799 five or six of these guys who've replaced him, you know, 206 00:12:30.840 --> 00:12:34.039 which is probably predictable and A and are working even 207 00:12:34.080 --> 00:12:40.440 harder at ad upgrading enrichment process. So all of this 208 00:12:40.600 --> 00:12:46.200 is to say that yes, there are you know, Israel's Israel, 209 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:47.879 It's been really bad. 210 00:12:47.960 --> 00:12:50.519 I'm sorry. It's been a very bad year for Iran. 211 00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:51.200 You know. 212 00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:56.879 They they lost their president and helicopter crash. They have 213 00:12:57.039 --> 00:13:00.919 been struck twice by the Israelis and were unable to 214 00:13:01.080 --> 00:13:05.360 bring down a single aircraft according to the Israelis, and 215 00:13:05.840 --> 00:13:08.480 certainly open source information seems to back the fact that 216 00:13:08.559 --> 00:13:14.080 they've been largely the new did of their anti aircraft 217 00:13:14.200 --> 00:13:18.039 or their their integrated air defense systems, and so it 218 00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:23.360 does seem like a good opportunity to strike and from 219 00:13:23.519 --> 00:13:26.240 you know, our own president's rhetoric when he talks about 220 00:13:26.320 --> 00:13:29.679 taking the next step, obviously that would be the next step, 221 00:13:30.759 --> 00:13:36.200 but perhaps not quite so predictable. All right, And when 222 00:13:36.240 --> 00:13:39.360 we look at some of the internal politics within the administration, 223 00:13:40.679 --> 00:13:46.279 two of the biggest Iraq hawks, Iran hawks. 224 00:13:46.799 --> 00:13:47.639 Are out of favor. 225 00:13:48.679 --> 00:13:52.600 Remember what was his name, pok Brian Hook was a 226 00:13:52.639 --> 00:13:56.440 big component of He was the Iran envoy in Trump's 227 00:13:56.480 --> 00:14:01.919 first term, and he and Bompo were we're all about 228 00:14:01.960 --> 00:14:07.080 going after Iran and now they've had their security clearances withdrawn. 229 00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:12.080 And actually Hook was fired shortly after President Trump took 230 00:14:12.120 --> 00:14:16.679 office this time. And then you look at Eldridge Colby, right, 231 00:14:16.879 --> 00:14:19.000 and it's kind of the pentagainst policy chief who was 232 00:14:19.080 --> 00:14:23.799 saying that that the intend now is to focus on 233 00:14:23.799 --> 00:14:28.320 on the Far East. I mean, absolutely do it this time. 234 00:14:28.840 --> 00:14:32.519 So you know, hard to tell, it's hard to read 235 00:14:32.559 --> 00:14:36.879 anything any coherent messaging here. Yes, I'm tracking the movement 236 00:14:36.919 --> 00:14:40.360 of aircraft down around you know, to include the supposed 237 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:44.559 landing of F thirty fives in peace app which could 238 00:14:44.559 --> 00:14:46.559 be you know, for a number of reasons. I mean, 239 00:14:46.600 --> 00:14:49.440 we and moving the aircraft carriers to the region. We 240 00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:51.720 do these things all the time as kind of a 241 00:14:52.000 --> 00:14:55.519 signaling mechanism. It could just be part of our messaging 242 00:14:55.519 --> 00:15:00.200 to Iran that we intend to play hard. But I 243 00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:02.480 don't know, there's a long way of saying this, But 244 00:15:02.559 --> 00:15:06.159 I don't know. I mean, there's there's certainly mixed messaging. 245 00:15:07.720 --> 00:15:14.000 But I'll finish by saying that last year I posited 246 00:15:14.159 --> 00:15:18.840 that the Israelis, if they wanted to, could strike and 247 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:24.399 have serious effect upon Iran's nuclear capability, and that appears 248 00:15:24.639 --> 00:15:27.600 to be no longer the case because of Iranian moves. 249 00:15:27.799 --> 00:15:34.360 So they would apparently if the open source informations we believe, 250 00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:36.799 they would need us support for this. 251 00:15:38.679 --> 00:15:43.919 Yeah, And on that point, the munitions when it comes 252 00:15:43.919 --> 00:15:46.639 to doing this a very important right. So the GVU 253 00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:52.200 fifty seven, I think, to my understanding, we're the only 254 00:15:52.240 --> 00:15:54.720 ones that have it. It can It's about thirty thousand 255 00:15:54.759 --> 00:16:00.399 pounds massive ordinance penetrating bomb that can go around two 256 00:16:00.440 --> 00:16:03.159 hundred feet below the surface before it detonates and to 257 00:16:03.279 --> 00:16:08.480 Andy's point, it's probably necessary to actually have the effects 258 00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:11.600 we want on the facilities based on what. 259 00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:13.879 They've done with them. So that would kind of. 260 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:18.200 Necessitate the US, I believe, unless there's only a certain 261 00:16:18.200 --> 00:16:20.360 amount of aircraft that can carry that too. So I'm 262 00:16:20.360 --> 00:16:21.720 not an air guy, so I'm not going to get 263 00:16:22.480 --> 00:16:22.879 too far. 264 00:16:23.399 --> 00:16:25.559 Yeah, I was just looking that up. Who carries it? 265 00:16:27.039 --> 00:16:28.840 I think it's to be too. 266 00:16:29.480 --> 00:16:31.720 Only to be two like the F fifteen can. I mean, 267 00:16:31.720 --> 00:16:32.279 it's that big. 268 00:16:33.559 --> 00:16:37.200 I'd look it up, but there's only a certain amount. 269 00:16:37.240 --> 00:16:39.600 It's thirty thousand. Think about it. We talk about you 270 00:16:39.639 --> 00:16:42.799 know these huge jadams that are two thousand pounds thirty thousand. 271 00:16:42.480 --> 00:16:43.159 Pounds, right, So. 272 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:47.399 That's one point. The other point I would make that 273 00:16:47.679 --> 00:16:53.639 Ani made earlier. Certainly agree it's more than just your 274 00:16:53.679 --> 00:16:57.159 intent when it comes to dimission the Hohothi's part of 275 00:16:57.159 --> 00:17:00.240 the way the intelligence apparatus in the United States work. 276 00:17:00.279 --> 00:17:03.120 It's the most effective, I think in the world, but 277 00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:06.759 it is finite, so they only have you know what 278 00:17:06.799 --> 00:17:12.240 they have, and they often shift based on policy interests 279 00:17:12.440 --> 00:17:13.640 of senior leadership. 280 00:17:13.759 --> 00:17:13.920 Right. 281 00:17:13.960 --> 00:17:17.240 So, and I don't know this to be necessarily true, 282 00:17:17.240 --> 00:17:20.319 but when the Biden administration deemphasized the who thies took 283 00:17:20.359 --> 00:17:23.880 them off the terrorist list, the chances of the intelligence 284 00:17:23.880 --> 00:17:25.559 community and shifting collection on. 285 00:17:25.559 --> 00:17:26.920 Them as high. 286 00:17:26.920 --> 00:17:30.480 It doesn't mean they just dumped it, but you know, 287 00:17:30.559 --> 00:17:34.759 based on these signals, they would shift. So now that 288 00:17:34.799 --> 00:17:39.079 there's a new administration who's obviously more interested in being 289 00:17:39.799 --> 00:17:43.640 effective against the Huth, he's militarily effective that the Intel 290 00:17:43.680 --> 00:17:46.400 has to catch up. So it can catch up pretty quick, 291 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:49.359 but it has to be retasked in some cases to 292 00:17:49.440 --> 00:17:51.720 really get that solid picture. And I think one of 293 00:17:51.720 --> 00:17:54.400 the reasons why they're talking about leadership targets in Yemen 294 00:17:54.519 --> 00:17:57.319 right now is because the Intel is catching up, so 295 00:17:57.960 --> 00:18:00.799 good for us, bad for you know. 296 00:18:01.839 --> 00:18:02.839 Hey, guys, it's Jack. 297 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:04.279 I just want to talk to you for a moment 298 00:18:04.319 --> 00:18:06.519 about how you can support the show. 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Guys. 315 00:18:57.680 --> 00:18:59.319 There's going to be a link down in the description 316 00:18:59.440 --> 00:19:02.920 to that Patreon page, and there is also going to 317 00:19:02.960 --> 00:19:05.759 be a link to our new merch shop, so if 318 00:19:05.759 --> 00:19:08.160 you guys want to go and get some Team House merchandise, 319 00:19:08.200 --> 00:19:11.759 we got stickers and we also have patches, and I 320 00:19:11.759 --> 00:19:14.720 should mention if you sign up for Patreon at ten 321 00:19:14.759 --> 00:19:17.039 dollars a month, we will mail you this patch as well, 322 00:19:18.519 --> 00:19:21.920 so we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale 323 00:19:21.960 --> 00:19:25.559 on the merch shop and additionally, they got t shirts 324 00:19:25.640 --> 00:19:30.359 up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all 325 00:19:30.359 --> 00:19:33.119 that good stuff, so please go and check them out 326 00:19:33.160 --> 00:19:34.319 and support the show. 327 00:19:34.640 --> 00:19:35.920 We really appreciate it, guys. 328 00:19:35.960 --> 00:19:38.599 Thank you, and yeah, it can only be carried by 329 00:19:38.640 --> 00:19:41.880 big bomber's B two and probably the B fifty two. 330 00:19:42.920 --> 00:19:45.440 Okay, yeah, you fifty seven. 331 00:19:45.720 --> 00:19:50.799 Yeah, And that means also Dandie's point, you got to 332 00:19:50.839 --> 00:19:53.319 get rid of the integrated Air Missile Defense System of 333 00:19:54.279 --> 00:19:59.160 Aroan before you really conduct these strikes. Right, these are big, 334 00:19:59.200 --> 00:20:02.079 big aircraft and they're going to be coming in, uh, 335 00:20:02.359 --> 00:20:03.200 you know the way they do. 336 00:20:03.319 --> 00:20:05.160 So they're gonna have to They're gonna have to take 337 00:20:05.200 --> 00:20:06.240 out a lot of Iranians. 338 00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:08.680 So the best case scenario is they come to the 339 00:20:08.680 --> 00:20:11.440 table and we come to an agreement that keeps them 340 00:20:11.480 --> 00:20:14.599 from getting a nuclear agreement, stops them from paying every 341 00:20:15.480 --> 00:20:18.799 UH militant group in the region to attack its neighbor 342 00:20:18.960 --> 00:20:21.920 and UH, and it gets sanctions removed off the Iranian 343 00:20:21.960 --> 00:20:26.359 people so they can join the world economy and do well. Right, 344 00:20:26.440 --> 00:20:28.599 that's the way we want to go. We shouldn't want 345 00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:31.880 to end up with the military straight because the question 346 00:20:32.000 --> 00:20:35.039 is what's the reaction what comes from that? And it's 347 00:20:35.599 --> 00:20:37.319 you know, I'm not saying we don't do it, but 348 00:20:38.279 --> 00:20:40.640 I think the diplomatic path forward, which I think the 349 00:20:40.640 --> 00:20:43.759 administration wants to see, is the path. But it's really 350 00:20:43.799 --> 00:20:46.720 going to come down to Iran so far don't seem 351 00:20:46.759 --> 00:20:48.599 to be interested the eye tool. 352 00:20:50.640 --> 00:20:54.599 Yeah, I mean in finnis not in finness, but to 353 00:20:54.640 --> 00:20:58.160 be accurate, you know, Iran's Iran's in a quandary too. 354 00:20:58.319 --> 00:21:02.359 I mean, they've they've lost their missile stockpiles last year, 355 00:21:02.960 --> 00:21:07.799 their air defenses and regional allies, you know, with downfall 356 00:21:07.839 --> 00:21:13.599 a facade, and also the demise of hermas has Boller 357 00:21:13.640 --> 00:21:17.200 on the ropes and now the hoofis and so on 358 00:21:17.200 --> 00:21:20.039 one hand, that does make a nuclear option more attractive, 359 00:21:21.480 --> 00:21:23.319 but on the other hand, they're in a very poor 360 00:21:23.359 --> 00:21:26.279 position to whether the fallout if they are called in 361 00:21:26.319 --> 00:21:29.799 the process of dashing for a bomb. And you know, 362 00:21:29.839 --> 00:21:34.440 the Israelis have shown have demonstrated a remarkable degree of 363 00:21:34.480 --> 00:21:37.519 penetration of Iran over the last year too, which means 364 00:21:37.519 --> 00:21:43.119 that the Uranians are probably concerned that they cannot break 365 00:21:43.160 --> 00:21:46.240 out without the rest of the world, or make rush 366 00:21:46.279 --> 00:21:48.880 for a breakout without the rest of the world finding out. 367 00:21:51.079 --> 00:21:53.640 You know, So there are I mean, they've got a 368 00:21:53.680 --> 00:21:58.240 new president who seems a moderate but was it Pezeshkin, 369 00:21:59.079 --> 00:22:02.079 But he's a he's a weak president with very neat 370 00:22:02.200 --> 00:22:10.240 little nuclears, very little say on nuclear policy. 371 00:22:07.599 --> 00:22:07.759 So. 372 00:22:09.319 --> 00:22:11.839 You know, even but but those with real power within 373 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:17.039 the administration, the Iranian regime do have good reasons to 374 00:22:17.079 --> 00:22:19.119 cut a deal. They're in a you know, they're in 375 00:22:19.240 --> 00:22:25.000 diary economic straits and has said, you know, they've they've 376 00:22:25.039 --> 00:22:28.880 lost their allies and they they must be you know, 377 00:22:28.920 --> 00:22:35.279 even if if a combined Israeli US strike doesn't achieve 378 00:22:35.599 --> 00:22:39.000 its objectives, that's still going to leave Iran in a 379 00:22:39.160 --> 00:22:43.599 in a very poor position from the just from the fallout. 380 00:22:43.720 --> 00:22:47.640 So I think, you know, I would be surprised if 381 00:22:47.680 --> 00:22:54.079 Iran doesn't broach some kind of negotiated settlement. But to 382 00:22:54.160 --> 00:22:57.519 mixed point, and I agree absolutely the missing part from 383 00:22:57.559 --> 00:23:01.200 the jig POA was as a lack of leverage or 384 00:23:03.160 --> 00:23:07.039 are both right inability, But we didn't even try to 385 00:23:07.480 --> 00:23:11.759 bring pressure in Iran to stop its you know, it's 386 00:23:11.799 --> 00:23:16.839 great zone activities, use of proxies in the in the 387 00:23:16.839 --> 00:23:20.440 Middle East and now of course specifically the Huthis are 388 00:23:20.440 --> 00:23:22.359 the of the main problem. 389 00:23:22.400 --> 00:23:24.799 Just for anybody listening to Jack Paul is the first 390 00:23:24.880 --> 00:23:29.839 Iran nuclear deal with on thee Obama administration just fyi. 391 00:23:30.960 --> 00:23:34.599 Yeah, and you know, Britain, France and Germany who are 392 00:23:35.720 --> 00:23:40.079 rarely aligned on Iran, have all said that they would 393 00:23:40.079 --> 00:23:43.640 be willing to, you know, reimpose just the full gamut 394 00:23:43.759 --> 00:23:49.000 of pre twenty fifteen sanctions in Iran, and they said that. 395 00:23:49.079 --> 00:23:51.480 You know, it's recently, as December. 396 00:23:53.240 --> 00:23:58.920 Focused on on non proliferation. So there's certainly a lot 397 00:23:58.920 --> 00:24:03.960 of pressure and Iran must be sensing the pressure to negotiate. 398 00:24:04.480 --> 00:24:06.200 And they've got internal problems too. 399 00:24:06.240 --> 00:24:08.279 You know, they can probably talk about it better than 400 00:24:08.279 --> 00:24:12.319 I can, but they, you know, they're dealing with they 401 00:24:12.359 --> 00:24:15.359