Speaker 1: And they only have a one track economy energy infrastructure,
Speaker 1: so he wanted that because that's the one thing that
Speaker 1: would advantage him. And then all the other things you said,
Speaker 1: it's complete Maximus, giveaway nothing, ask for everything, and then
Speaker 1: try to get the other side to fight each other.
Speaker 1: They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other
Speaker 1: because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking.
Speaker 2: Points, which even.
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously we should be on the side of
Speaker 1: the crade, but even if we're just a mediator, right,
Speaker 1: you don't repeat any side talking points. That's not the point, okay, Right,
Speaker 1: you go in, especially in public, as a mediator, you
Speaker 1: just keep talking about the instinate.
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Speaker 5: Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Dimitri.
Speaker 5: Here with McK molroy, Andy Milburn, uh Locke cooking since
Speaker 5: we've last had an episode, So you know, get a
Speaker 5: comfortable seat, sit back and relax because the world's falling apart.
Speaker 5: I'm just joking, not really. The big news coming out
Speaker 5: of the US is it seems like the rhetoric uh
Speaker 5: that's coming out is that the US is gearing up
Speaker 5: for a possible air strike or air strikes on Iranian
Speaker 5: nuclear facilities. It started earlier this week with US bombarding
Speaker 5: the Iranian backed Toothy's. I love when like media companies
Speaker 5: say that that's like they got like a notice from
Speaker 5: wherever they get a notice from that, they always have
Speaker 5: to say Iran back Toothi's uh.
Speaker 6: And they've been hitting the hoothies.
Speaker 5: I feel like it's been harder than other air strikes
Speaker 5: that we've seen over the last year or so, since
Speaker 5: they've been screwing around, uh in the Red Sea. Yeah,
Speaker 5: let's just start with that because everything kind of like
Speaker 5: entangles into each other, like, and Israel is signing a
Speaker 5: delegation to DC this week to talk about an attack plan,
Speaker 5: whether the US is involved directly or it gives Israel
Speaker 5: the green light to just let them go with. I'm
Speaker 5: sure support from US because you know, Israel is like
Speaker 5: clamoring for it, you know, hitting Iran.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 5: So, Mick, what do you got on this? Like, what
Speaker 5: are you tracking? Oh, there's a lot to cover there, Yes,
Speaker 5: there's quite a lot.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, let's start with the houthis so on sorrow Lot
Speaker 1: that's the other that's their name actually, as you said,
Speaker 1: or on back they are a proxy. Everran They're not
Speaker 1: the greatest proxy everon if there was a scale, I
Speaker 1: think Hesbelo would be on the top as far as
Speaker 1: being able to direct them and take an orders, et cetera.
Speaker 1: The Houthis are a bit of a wild card, but
Speaker 1: they are or an hand back and a proxy, and
Speaker 1: ultimately Iran has the influence if it's not just stop
Speaker 1: giving them weapons systems that they can hit ships with. Right,
Speaker 1: So you got to you gotta be a little skeptical
Speaker 1: of Iran's claims.
Speaker 2: That they don't have the influence they have.
Speaker 1: So I would first start with commending the current administration
Speaker 1: with taking a harder stance in my view against the Huthis.
Speaker 2: Not only have they been.
Speaker 1: A threat to us UH military assets, which includes of course,
Speaker 1: are sailors, soldiers, airmen, and marines, they have been conducting
Speaker 1: direct terrace attacks against commercial vessels, killing and injuring civilians
Speaker 1: that have nothing to do with any of the conflicts
Speaker 1: going on. And it's important to point out they were
Speaker 1: doing a lot of this before the war and Gaza
Speaker 1: even started, so they use that as their reasoning behind it,
Speaker 1: but they were doing this prior to that even happening.
Speaker 1: So I think it's time that we take all the
Speaker 1: necessary military steps to degrade them to a point of
Speaker 1: being unable to continue the attacks. They're never going to
Speaker 1: change their philosophy unattacking the US and Israel. It's literally
Speaker 1: in their national motto. But we can take we can
Speaker 1: kill all the leadership, and we can destroy their ability
Speaker 1: to attack innocent civilians board commercial vessels, which of course
Speaker 1: this region about forty percent of the energy of the
Speaker 1: world comes out of this region. It's mostly dependent on
Speaker 1: by the Indo Pacific region, not US, so good on
Speaker 1: them for that. Some would say this could also be
Speaker 1: a reason to flow a lot of assets. Some you
Speaker 1: just mentioned the USS Carl Vinson is also steaming from
Speaker 1: the Pacific to the Middle East to link up with
Speaker 1: the Truman, another aircraft carrier. So we're putting a lot
Speaker 1: of regional assets out there, which I think sends a
Speaker 1: signal both to the Houthis in the signal being we're gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, attack you harder than you've been attacked before,
Speaker 1: but also a signal to Iran that you see how
Speaker 1: we're dismantling your proxy force here if you don't come
Speaker 1: to the negotiation table for JCPOA two point zero or
Speaker 1: whatever we're going to call it, which hopefully will include
Speaker 1: addressing Iran's use of proxy forces in the region as
Speaker 1: well as nuclear ambitions.
Speaker 2: Then you could be next.
Speaker 1: So I think that I think there is a very
Speaker 1: I don't obviously no decision has been made yet, I
Speaker 1: don't think, but I think there's a very real possibility
Speaker 1: that the US could be looking at if orn has
Speaker 1: a breakout toward a nuclear weapon they have, they could
Speaker 1: easily get to the amount of enrichment they need. They
Speaker 1: have to come up with the triggering mechanism, which they
Speaker 1: could get from Russia or North Korea. But if they
Speaker 1: do that, I do think there's a real possibility that
Speaker 1: the United States, either in conjunction with or laterly strikes
Speaker 1: the facilities and Tons and the other nuclear facilities you mentioned.
Speaker 6: Ai.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I agree with with Mick that the strikes on
Speaker 7: the WHO these are you know, renewed strikes or they're overdue.
Speaker 7: But the concern has never been so much the number
Speaker 7: of sorties were flying against the who thy's it's been
Speaker 7: it's been having intelligence that is useful enough to result
Speaker 7: in real time targeting. In other words, just the nature
Speaker 7: of who the operations means that no matter how sophisticated
Speaker 7: or intelligence is, they are able to shoot and scoot
Speaker 7: and clear the area before we can cause really serious damage.
Speaker 7: And now that's you know, we are plinking away and
Speaker 7: we are causing casualties, and you know, essentially we're creating
Speaker 7: a tremendous attrition for them. So one hopes they cannot
Speaker 7: sustain these efforts for long. But they did fire another
Speaker 7: rocket at I'm missing at Israel the other day, so
Speaker 7: you know they aren't. They aren't yet completely on the ropes.
Speaker 7: And it is the way we're doing things. Again, that's
Speaker 7: the only thing that we can do. This isn't a criticism,
Speaker 7: but it is. It is inefficient and it isn't as
Speaker 7: effective as it may appear. And to really go after
Speaker 7: the heart of the problem would be bring pressure and
Speaker 7: Iran and so I you know, it's hard to tell
Speaker 7: what the administration is thinking, but definitely that must be
Speaker 7: foremost in their mind. The same same time, to mixed point,
Speaker 7: you know, Iran by the end, it's certainly you know,
Speaker 7: the last by the last information that that the IAEA has,
Speaker 7: it's the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran was able to
Speaker 7: was producing about seven kilograms of uranium and rich to
Speaker 7: sixty percent, which is just below weapons grade every month,
Speaker 7: which would be enough to make about two nuclear bombs
Speaker 7: per year if enriched further. Okay, So that was towards
Speaker 7: the end of last year. Since then, the i e
Speaker 7: IAA says that their their intelligence, their information has kind
Speaker 7: of dried up. At the same time, the Israelis are
Speaker 7: saying open source, their intelligence guys are saying that they
Speaker 7: are certain that the Iranians are making a determined approach
Speaker 7: for breakout, that they are doubling up on their centrifuge activity,
Speaker 7: and that more perhaps even more worryingly, they've moved their
Speaker 7: centrifuges into areas that are deeper than before.
Speaker 2: Let me just say that.
Speaker 7: Much, okay, and so kind of interesting. Hubarak, who's a
Speaker 7: former Israeli Prime minister and was until recently a firm
Speaker 7: advocate of the Israelis going after kinetically, going after the
Speaker 7: Iran's nuclear capability, is now singly doesn't think it's going
Speaker 7: to take do any good. That the Irans program's now
Speaker 7: to advanced, too deeply buried to take out without US help,
Speaker 7: all right, without bunker busting bombs. As the media likes
Speaker 7: to say, so that what is all this put it?
Speaker 7: Oh the other thing is, do you remember back in
Speaker 7: twenty twenty, the Israelis killed the most prominent Iranian physicist,
Speaker 7: you know, I mean it was the end of her.
Speaker 7: It was it was a culmination of a campaign of
Speaker 7: going after a nuclear physicists. But this guy, his name
Speaker 7: was Mosen I'm going to mispronounce it far is Ida
Speaker 7: and and and they took him out using that it
Speaker 7: was like an automatic machine gun. It was a very
Speaker 7: unusual type operation. And the problem is now apparently, and
Speaker 7: this is according to the Israelis, that there are now
Speaker 7: five or six of these guys who've replaced him, you know,
Speaker 7: which is probably predictable and A and are working even
Speaker 7: harder at ad upgrading enrichment process. So all of this
Speaker 7: is to say that yes, there are you know, Israel's Israel,
Speaker 7: It's been really bad.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. It's been a very bad year for Iran.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 7: They they lost their president and helicopter crash. They have
Speaker 7: been struck twice by the Israelis and were unable to
Speaker 7: bring down a single aircraft according to the Israelis, and
Speaker 7: certainly open source information seems to back the fact that
Speaker 7: they've been largely the new did of their anti aircraft
Speaker 7: or their their integrated air defense systems, and so it
Speaker 7: does seem like a good opportunity to strike and from
Speaker 7: you know, our own president's rhetoric when he talks about
Speaker 7: taking the next step, obviously that would be the next step,
Speaker 7: but perhaps not quite so predictable. All right, And when
Speaker 7: we look at some of the internal politics within the administration,
Speaker 7: two of the biggest Iraq hawks, Iran hawks.
Speaker 2: Are out of favor.
Speaker 7: Remember what was his name, pok Brian Hook was a
Speaker 7: big component of He was the Iran envoy in Trump's
Speaker 7: first term, and he and Bompo were we're all about
Speaker 7: going after Iran and now they've had their security clearances withdrawn.
Speaker 7: And actually Hook was fired shortly after President Trump took
Speaker 7: office this time. And then you look at Eldridge Colby, right,
Speaker 7: and it's kind of the pentagainst policy chief who was
Speaker 7: saying that that the intend now is to focus on
Speaker 7: on the Far East. I mean, absolutely do it this time.
Speaker 7: So you know, hard to tell, it's hard to read
Speaker 7: anything any coherent messaging here. Yes, I'm tracking the movement
Speaker 7: of aircraft down around you know, to include the supposed
Speaker 7: landing of F thirty fives in peace app which could
Speaker 7: be you know, for a number of reasons. I mean,
Speaker 7: we and moving the aircraft carriers to the region. We
Speaker 7: do these things all the time as kind of a
Speaker 7: signaling mechanism. It could just be part of our messaging
Speaker 7: to Iran that we intend to play hard. But I
Speaker 7: don't know, there's a long way of saying this, But
Speaker 7: I don't know. I mean, there's there's certainly mixed messaging.
Speaker 7: But I'll finish by saying that last year I posited
Speaker 7: that the Israelis, if they wanted to, could strike and
Speaker 7: have serious effect upon Iran's nuclear capability, and that appears
Speaker 7: to be no longer the case because of Iranian moves.
Speaker 7: So they would apparently if the open source informations we believe,
Speaker 7: they would need us support for this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And on that point, the munitions when it comes
Speaker 1: to doing this a very important right. So the GVU
Speaker 1: fifty seven, I think, to my understanding, we're the only
Speaker 1: ones that have it. It can It's about thirty thousand
Speaker 1: pounds massive ordinance penetrating bomb that can go around two
Speaker 1: hundred feet below the surface before it detonates and to
Speaker 1: Andy's point, it's probably necessary to actually have the effects
Speaker 1: we want on the facilities based on what.
Speaker 2: They've done with them. So that would kind of.
Speaker 1: Necessitate the US, I believe, unless there's only a certain
Speaker 1: amount of aircraft that can carry that too. So I'm
Speaker 1: not an air guy, so I'm not going to get
Speaker 1: too far.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I was just looking that up. Who carries it?
Speaker 2: I think it's to be too.
Speaker 6: Only to be two like the F fifteen can. I mean,
Speaker 6: it's that big.
Speaker 1: I'd look it up, but there's only a certain amount.
Speaker 1: It's thirty thousand. Think about it. We talk about you
Speaker 1: know these huge jadams that are two thousand pounds thirty thousand.
Speaker 2: Pounds, right, So.
Speaker 1: That's one point. The other point I would make that
Speaker 1: Ani made earlier. Certainly agree it's more than just your
Speaker 1: intent when it comes to dimission the Hohothi's part of
Speaker 1: the way the intelligence apparatus in the United States work.
Speaker 1: It's the most effective, I think in the world, but
Speaker 1: it is finite, so they only have you know what
Speaker 1: they have, and they often shift based on policy interests
Speaker 1: of senior leadership.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: So, and I don't know this to be necessarily true,
Speaker 1: but when the Biden administration deemphasized the who thies took
Speaker 1: them off the terrorist list, the chances of the intelligence
Speaker 1: community and shifting collection on.
Speaker 2: Them as high.
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean they just dumped it, but you know,
Speaker 1: based on these signals, they would shift. So now that
Speaker 1: there's a new administration who's obviously more interested in being
Speaker 1: effective against the Huth, he's militarily effective that the Intel
Speaker 1: has to catch up. So it can catch up pretty quick,
Speaker 1: but it has to be retasked in some cases to
Speaker 1: really get that solid picture. And I think one of
Speaker 1: the reasons why they're talking about leadership targets in Yemen
Speaker 1: right now is because the Intel is catching up, so
Speaker 1: good for us, bad for you know.
Speaker 4: Hey, guys, it's Jack.
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Speaker 5: Thank you, and yeah, it can only be carried by
Speaker 5: big bomber's B two and probably the B fifty two.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, you fifty seven.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that means also Dandie's point, you got to
Speaker 1: get rid of the integrated Air Missile Defense System of
Speaker 1: Aroan before you really conduct these strikes. Right, these are big,
Speaker 1: big aircraft and they're going to be coming in, uh,
Speaker 1: you know the way they do.
Speaker 2: So they're gonna have to They're gonna have to take
Speaker 2: out a lot of Iranians.
Speaker 1: So the best case scenario is they come to the
Speaker 1: table and we come to an agreement that keeps them
Speaker 1: from getting a nuclear agreement, stops them from paying every
Speaker 1: UH militant group in the region to attack its neighbor
Speaker 1: and UH, and it gets sanctions removed off the Iranian
Speaker 1: people so they can join the world economy and do well. Right,
Speaker 1: that's the way we want to go. We shouldn't want
Speaker 1: to end up with the military straight because the question
Speaker 1: is what's the reaction what comes from that? And it's
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not saying we don't do it, but
Speaker 1: I think the diplomatic path forward, which I think the
Speaker 1: administration wants to see, is the path. But it's really
Speaker 1: going to come down to Iran so far don't seem
Speaker 1: to be interested the eye tool.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean in finnis not in finness, but to
Speaker 7: be accurate, you know, Iran's Iran's in a quandary too.
Speaker 7: I mean, they've they've lost their missile stockpiles last year,
Speaker 7: their air defenses and regional allies, you know, with downfall
Speaker 7: a facade, and also the demise of hermas has Boller
Speaker 7: on the ropes and now the hoofis and so on
Speaker 7: one hand, that does make a nuclear option more attractive,
Speaker 7: but on the other hand, they're in a very poor
Speaker 7: position to whether the fallout if they are called in
Speaker 7: the process of dashing for a bomb. And you know,
Speaker 7: the Israelis have shown have demonstrated a remarkable degree of
Speaker 7: penetration of Iran over the last year too, which means
Speaker 7: that the Uranians are probably concerned that they cannot break
Speaker 7: out without the rest of the world, or make rush
Speaker 7: for a breakout without the rest of the world finding out.
Speaker 7: You know, So there are I mean, they've got a
Speaker 7: new president who seems a moderate but was it Pezeshkin,
Speaker 7: But he's a he's a weak president with very neat
Speaker 7: little nuclears, very little say on nuclear policy.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 7: You know, even but but those with real power within
Speaker 7: the administration, the Iranian regime do have good reasons to
Speaker 7: cut a deal. They're in a you know, they're in
Speaker 7: diary economic straits and has said, you know, they've they've
Speaker 7: lost their allies and they they must be you know,
Speaker 7: even if if a combined Israeli US strike doesn't achieve
Speaker 7: its objectives, that's still going to leave Iran in a
Speaker 7: in a very poor position from the just from the fallout.
Speaker 7: So I think, you know, I would be surprised if
Speaker 7: Iran doesn't broach some kind of negotiated settlement. But to
Speaker 7: mixed point, and I agree absolutely the missing part from
Speaker 7: the jig POA was as a lack of leverage or
Speaker 7: are both right inability, But we didn't even try to
Speaker 7: bring pressure in Iran to stop its you know, it's
Speaker 7: great zone activities, use of proxies in the in the
Speaker 7: Middle East and now of course specifically the Huthis are
Speaker 7: the of the main problem.
Speaker 5: Just for anybody listening to Jack Paul is the first
Speaker 5: Iran nuclear deal with on thee Obama administration just fyi.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and you know, Britain, France and Germany who are
Speaker 7: rarely aligned on Iran, have all said that they would
Speaker 7: be willing to, you know, reimpose just the full gamut
Speaker 7: of pre twenty fifteen sanctions in Iran, and they said that.
Speaker 2: You know, it's recently, as December.
Speaker 7: Focused on on non proliferation. So there's certainly a lot
Speaker 7: of pressure and Iran must be sensing the pressure to negotiate.
Speaker 2: And they've got internal problems too.
Speaker 7: You know, they can probably talk about it better than
Speaker 7: I can, but they, you know, they're dealing with they
Speaker 7: have never been totally impervious, certainly, not in the last
Speaker 7: two decades, not since the Orange Revolution whenever that was
Speaker 7: two thousand and nine, it was orange or green, I
Speaker 7: forget the color. But they've never been impervious to public opinion.
Speaker 7: I mean they have, Yes, their elections are sham elections,
Speaker 7: but they nevertheless, the regime is concerned when there are
Speaker 7: rumblings of discontent, and there are increasing rumblings of discontent
Speaker 7: within Iran. They've got a very highly educated middle class
Speaker 7: that wields probably more power than in most countries in
Speaker 7: the Middle East, or more influence, and they are unhappy.
Speaker 7: They're unhappy with Iran's venturing overseas. They're unhappy with the isolation,
Speaker 7: and they're especially unhappy with the economic situation.
Speaker 1: That's true, they are very popular and another thing you
Speaker 1: reference as the president actually is more focused internally, right,
Speaker 1: so the EE toll and all the they make all
Speaker 1: the big decisions and nuclear decisions, you know, frolicking overseas
Speaker 1: and IRGC and all that. But they are they are
Speaker 1: a very unpopular regime and Iran. And you know, if
Speaker 1: they do enter into the jig POA two point zero,
Speaker 1: this could be very good for the country which wants it.
Speaker 1: So there's there's a way ahead. That's that's clearly best
Speaker 1: for the region and best for Iran, or at least.
Speaker 2: They're running people.
Speaker 1: But right now the regime seems to be only focused
Speaker 1: on the regime, which is what usually regimes focused on.
Speaker 6: Uh staying in the area.
Speaker 5: Israel start restarted as its military action on Gaza, a
Speaker 5: ton of air strikes, ground force movements. They've really liked
Speaker 5: U turn the heat up.
Speaker 6: I would say.
Speaker 5: They've also started bombing southern Lebanons and hesbloup positions as well.
Speaker 5: So ceasefire seems to have you know, be gone. Make
Speaker 5: what are you looking at there?
Speaker 1: Yeah? So I mean part of this was because Israel
Speaker 1: wanted to extend the first phase of the ceasefire, right
Speaker 1: so that would me and hostages still come out, Palestinian
Speaker 1: prisoners are released, and humanitarian aid comes into large quantities.
Speaker 1: Hamas wanted to go the second phase because that means
Speaker 1: the IDEF has to withdrawal and essentially the war zone
Speaker 1: in the third phase, of course, gets into reconstruction all that.
Speaker 1: So Nan Yaho wasn't gonna be able to hold his
Speaker 1: coalition if he withdrew the idea. Not that the world
Speaker 1: should care necessarily about Prime Minister of Manyaho's political future,
Speaker 1: but that's the reality for him. So Hamas then rejected
Speaker 1: the extension. So that's just looking at it from their perspective, right,
Speaker 1: So there's no humanitarian aid coming into Gaza right now.
Speaker 1: That shouldn't happen, but it is. Hamasa doesn't apparently care,
Speaker 1: right so, because they could extend the first phase and
Speaker 1: they could release hostages that never should have been taken
Speaker 1: hostage in the first place, and we could be where
Speaker 1: we are, but they are, so I think because the
Speaker 1: administers came back into the government Smoltritz and Ben Gavir,
Speaker 1: there's probably.
Speaker 2: A good likelihood that we're not going to see a
Speaker 2: ceasefire anytime soon.
Speaker 1: I don't think they would have came back in without
Speaker 1: talking to that YAHOO and then there's a ceasefire that
Speaker 1: that's the reason why they left in the first place, right,
Speaker 1: So that's my speculation. I don't obviously know anything specific,
Speaker 1: but I think we're going to be set for a
Speaker 1: pretty long, extended period of fighting here. It's in the north,
Speaker 1: it's in the central, and it's in the south. I
Speaker 1: think the whole time during the two months ceasefire, they
Speaker 1: were collecting intel as I would be too, and preparing
Speaker 1: for this phase of the operation. So that's why it
Speaker 1: happened so quickly when it did, and that's why it's
Speaker 1: it's quite frankly, been very effective going after you know
Speaker 1: which left of the leadership, and I think this is
Speaker 1: going to keep going. Israel is set claiming that they're
Speaker 1: going to create these humanitarian zones where people in Gaza
Speaker 1: would be going to hopefully to receive humanitarian assistance, but
Speaker 1: anybody left out would be condeemed, you know, en to
Speaker 1: be combatant, and that you know, from a military perspective,
Speaker 1: would be easier. But it does appear to be you know,
Speaker 1: serious population control. And then of course we still have
Speaker 1: this these reports that countries have been approached about taking gusins,
Speaker 1: which again is very impractical and likely unlawful. But that's
Speaker 1: where I think we are now. There's also and I know,
Speaker 1: you know, I stick to national security and politics, but
Speaker 1: there's a lot of politics going on in Israel right now.
Speaker 2: So there's the beginning of the fighting.
Speaker 1: Again, was super unpopular by some Prime Minister Nana, who
Speaker 1: has fired shin Bette.
Speaker 2: Basically their internal service chief.
Speaker 1: Apparently the cabinets now removed the Attorney General. I would
Speaker 1: call it a constitutional trisis for Israel, but they don't
Speaker 1: have a constitution, which is one of the reasons. So
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot going on right now, internal strife
Speaker 1: inside Israel. You know, the far right thinks that the
Speaker 1: judiciary has too much sound familiar, has too much authority.
Speaker 1: The far left thinks, basically Prime Minister of Yanyah who's
Speaker 1: went from a traditional conservative to some kind of you know,
Speaker 1: French monarch where he gets it in himself, the state right,
Speaker 1: the state is meat. That's kind of a I think
Speaker 1: a thumbnail sketch of the current situation, but it does
Speaker 1: affect the war. Right, so this had this could have
Speaker 1: a profound effect on the war and and uh so
Speaker 1: that's why I bring it up. But those are what
Speaker 1: I see going now Lebanon. Let's hope it doesn't kick
Speaker 1: back off. The people love On and certainly people in
Speaker 1: Northern Israel, but they have to be able to get control.
Speaker 1: That's one thing that the government in Lebanon has to
Speaker 1: has to get control over the armed factions in Lebanon.
Speaker 2: They have to.
Speaker 1: They have to figure it out or UNIFIL needs to
Speaker 1: figure out how they can do more, which I don't
Speaker 1: have any competence in, but they're literally if they just
Speaker 1: say well it's not us, it's that group of people
Speaker 1: that are in Lebanon that are attacking you, then it's
Speaker 1: going to kick back off.
Speaker 2: Or are you yeah?
Speaker 7: So I mean the war is intimately bound up with
Speaker 7: the Israeli politics. You know Netna, who did a number
Speaker 7: of things to kind of line this up, forring the
Speaker 7: the previous Chief and staff for the Australia Defense Forces
Speaker 7: and bringing in Lieutenant General Zamia, who is a I
Speaker 7: wouldn't say a net loyalist, but seems to have used
Speaker 7: their alignment.
Speaker 2: Net Yahoo, and.
Speaker 7: Zamir has said, you know, he favors a longer campaign,
Speaker 7: bringing armored divisions in on the ground inside Gaza to
Speaker 7: rout out Hamas fighters, which is you know, obviously having
Speaker 7: a catastrophic effect on the population there.
Speaker 2: I mean, the.
Speaker 7: Repossessing redisplacing population it gained to the so called humanitarian zones,
Speaker 7: and you know, infrastructure is pull varized. They've been dealing
Speaker 7: with near starvation now for for months. So you know,
Speaker 7: again the we shouldn't forget the scale of misery within Gaza.
Speaker 7: That doesn't affect Israeli politics, and I think most Israeli
Speaker 7: is really that really factors with them. But the deploying
Speaker 7: the number of divisions that Zamir envisions for his war
Speaker 7: plans is going to have a severe effect in the
Speaker 7: Israeli population. It's going to include tens of thousands of
Speaker 7: reserve troops who have yet to be mobilized. Okay, with
Speaker 7: all the following effects on the economy and disruption of lives,
Speaker 7: that will have an effect.
Speaker 2: Uh, you know.
Speaker 7: For for Netnia himself, the timing of his fell's renewed
Speaker 7: attack on Gaza was politically fortuitous. His coalition was in
Speaker 7: danger of losing its majority on the on the eve
Speaker 7: of a critical budget vote, and and if that had
Speaker 7: failed to pass, and it would have prompted early elections.
Speaker 7: And then you know, as Mick talked about, within hours
Speaker 7: of the strikes on Gaza, if Meir ben Gavera, who's
Speaker 7: an old friend of this program, leader of the far
Speaker 7: right Jewish Power Party, and he had had left the
Speaker 7: government back in January, and then he returned to the fall,
Speaker 7: which indicates, yes, that there was some kind of deal
Speaker 7: between him and certain is anxious to rally his base
Speaker 7: because of you know, controversial attempt to fire the head
Speaker 7: of the shinbad and and the Attorney General their investigations
Speaker 7: into Netna whose close aids who are alleged to have
Speaker 7: leaked classified documents and receive payments from Cutter, and then
Speaker 7: of course the corruption charges against Netnahun himself, right, and then.
Speaker 2: You know, it could be.
Speaker 7: That that Supreme Court could block some of these efforts,
Speaker 7: whose efforts political efforts, on the grounds a conflict of interests,
Speaker 7: which would again lead to a constitutional crisis, which is
Speaker 7: you know, it's been building since before the war. Frankly,
Speaker 7: I mean, remember uh, the fact that his coalition wanted
Speaker 7: to pass sweeping legal reforms to weaken the powers of
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court, and all of that was kind of
Speaker 7: eclipsed by the war. But it goes bubbling on in
Speaker 7: in the in the background. So it does look as though,
Speaker 7: you know, regardless, that there is going to be some
Speaker 7: kind of political crisis in Israel, and the the renewed
Speaker 7: defensive in Gaza provides I'm sure, well, no, I'm sure
Speaker 7: provides a welcome distraction to Netnahu and his uh, his proteges.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I remember when the ceasefire first came
Speaker 5: into effect or they were like close to it, and
Speaker 5: we were talking about the points of it where like
Speaker 5: Phase two kind of didn't seem like, uh, really viable
Speaker 5: of an option where like the IDF backs out and
Speaker 5: then some other magical security force comes in and keeps the.
Speaker 6: Law and order and stuff.
Speaker 5: So I mean, it's as a cynical person that I am,
Speaker 5: it doesn't really seem that shocking that Israel wanted to
Speaker 5: extend Phase one because Phase two was.
Speaker 6: Fanciful.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And there's and part of this is the the
Speaker 1: rest of the world isn't stepping up, right, So yeah,
Speaker 1: I remember when Secretary blanken. Last administration went around asking
Speaker 1: all the countries in the region about a multinational you know,
Speaker 1: peacekeeping force.
Speaker 2: If you will. They got a big no.
Speaker 1: Right, So so that's off the table.
Speaker 2: So what's what's left?
Speaker 1: Is there some kind of version of can they train
Speaker 1: you know, the former Palestinian police? Can they train Palestinians
Speaker 1: that are vetted and not associated with AMAS for example
Speaker 1: or pig or jay excuse me, I guess I could
Speaker 1: maybe that should be happening. Seems like something that the
Speaker 1: international community could be doing. Or they could go with
Speaker 1: a private company, and you know that's there's always issues
Speaker 1: with private security because you know who's who's whose.
Speaker 2: Laws do they fall under? Who are they?
Speaker 1: You know, when something bad happens, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: the governments that hired them are pointing at them. So
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying any of these are easy,
Speaker 1: but I mean from Israeli active, they're not going to
Speaker 1: turn it back over to AMAS Like that's just not
Speaker 1: going to happen.
Speaker 2: I don't care what side of the political.
Speaker 1: Spectrum you are in Israel that that solution is a nonstart.
Speaker 5: What about the Palestinian authority, because I know there was
Speaker 5: some talk about like, no, they're not not them either.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, the reason why the last administration called
Speaker 1: them to revitalized Palestinian stories because largely they're viewed negatively
Speaker 1: by the Palestinian people. They are for the most part
Speaker 1: ineffective and certainly corrupt. So there has to be some
Speaker 1: new version of that, and then under that there could
Speaker 1: be a trained you know, keep the peace force right.
Speaker 1: It's easier said than done, and you know, I spent
Speaker 1: a lot of time training partner forces like that. So
Speaker 1: but you know, the best way, best day to plant
Speaker 1: a tree is twenty years ago. The second best day
Speaker 1: is today. So if they intend is to ever have
Speaker 1: a time when the IDF can withdraw and Palestinians can
Speaker 1: take care of their own security, which means also Israeli security, right,
Speaker 1: so not allowing any group in there totach Israel. It's
Speaker 1: got to start. So it doesn't seem like anybody's talk
Speaker 1: about that.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 7: So the one interesting thing about a number of interesting
Speaker 7: things about what's going on, I mean, the the the ideas.
Speaker 7: Really they're not it's not so much well, they are
Speaker 7: fighting on forefronts, so they're maintaining a robust presence on
Speaker 7: four front forefronts that is Gaza, what they are going
Speaker 7: on the offensive again southern Syria, you know, beyond the
Speaker 7: goal on Heights, maintaining a presence there in accordance with
Speaker 7: net you know, how's the declaration that he did not
Speaker 7: want EHTS pushing south of Damascus. The HDS, of course,
Speaker 7: is the ruling party in Syria now. And then you've
Speaker 7: got the West Bank where the you know, the Israelis
Speaker 7: a mobilized reserve battalions in.
Speaker 2: To bosster their presence in.
Speaker 7: The West Bank, and of course Leban, you know they've
Speaker 7: got five they're maintaining five fortified locations in southern Lebin,
Speaker 7: which by the way, you know, you can look at
Speaker 7: this as you want. You can say it provides, you know,
Speaker 7: in justification the governments provides a buffer zone and for
Speaker 7: the security of Israeli civilians in the north. But on
Speaker 7: the other hand, and the Israelis encountered this during their
Speaker 7: twenty year long occupation of Leban, it provides has Bolla
Speaker 7: caused deter to rise again right to expel the Israeli occupy.
Speaker 7: It as a kind of focus of effort, and it
Speaker 7: continues to keep kind of the sheer resentment simmering, so
Speaker 7: you know, it's a double ed sword. The other reason,
Speaker 7: I mean, it's unlikely who knows whether the US administration
Speaker 7: will come down on the Israeli government and have them
Speaker 7: downscale any of these military presences anytime soon. But the
Speaker 7: pressure is likely to be internal, and it's likely to
Speaker 7: be economic. You know, Israel's economy has suffered hugely since
Speaker 7: the events of October the seventh, and they continue doing so.
Speaker 7: It's not we're not just talking about loss of tourism
Speaker 7: and all of that. We're talking about the course, the
Speaker 7: cost of the economy of having a significant proportion of
Speaker 7: the population mobilized as reservists, and a lot of these
Speaker 7: a lot of the guys in all of these locations
Speaker 7: are are reservists, and as I mentioned earlier, in order
Speaker 7: to continue the offensive thing as a gaza, they're going
Speaker 7: to have to mobilize many more reservists. So there's going
Speaker 7: to be there's significant economic pressure to kind of downscale
Speaker 7: these commitments. But there doesn't seem to be an end
Speaker 7: in sight.
Speaker 6: You got anything.
Speaker 2: I mean, pretty sick we covered all that.
Speaker 6: I just want yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 7: Andy, Yeah, I was just saying that there's another aspect
Speaker 7: here that Netahu doesn't seem to care about. I think
Speaker 7: probably some of his generals and some of the more
Speaker 7: moderate members of his coalition do too, is the fact
Speaker 7: that they are burning bridges rapidly with two of the
Speaker 7: most important partners in regional partners, partners a strong word.
Speaker 7: But they're neighbors, Egypt and Jordan, and relations have never
Speaker 7: been worse, well, not never, not since seventy three. Okay,
Speaker 7: relations have not been worse with those than those two countries,
Speaker 7: and they are now. And there's you know, I mean,
Speaker 7: you can say what you want, and you can pound
Speaker 7: his chest and say with the you know.
Speaker 2: With the biggest bully in the neighborhood.
Speaker 7: But on the other hand, you if you if you're
Speaker 7: going to burn bridges like that, there's going to be
Speaker 7: a cast. And and it's worth remembering that fifty percent
Speaker 7: of Jordan's population of Palestinians and are incensed about what is.
Speaker 2: Going on in Gaza.
Speaker 7: And there's a long porous border with Jordan. It's quite
Speaker 7: easy to cross, and so you know, you can't end
Speaker 7: to end of course there is with Egypt. You can't
Speaker 7: help thinking that that isroll maybe sowing the seeds for
Speaker 7: serious problems over the next decade.
Speaker 5: Jesus, all right, let's uh, let's go a little bit
Speaker 5: more of about this for a long time.
Speaker 6: Yeah, let's go to a season ten of Aizon.
Speaker 5: We'll be talking about this happier news. I guess which
Speaker 5: I'm joking. The Ukrainian ceasefire. Lots of gone onun sense.
Speaker 5: I think we last spoke. The US and Ukraine came
Speaker 5: together and had to cease fire proposal for thirty days
Speaker 5: to not hit infrastructure, like an energy infrastructure, that didn't
Speaker 5: last more than like four hours. Putin put out his
Speaker 5: own plan, which seems to be, you know, zero concessions
Speaker 5: on his side, obviously, like what to be expected. Why
Speaker 5: would he give up anything when our own side is
Speaker 5: the United States anyway, is happily happy to give him
Speaker 5: as many concessions as he's like, as he'd like. Trump
Speaker 5: and Putin had a two hour phone call the other
Speaker 5: day and a very I'm gonna bring it up, the
Speaker 5: very interesting interview with Tucker Carlson and Steve Whitcoff, where
Speaker 5: Steve Whitcough I mean, was you know, I guess describing
Speaker 5: the relationship between Putin and Trump as being the best
Speaker 5: of friends, and it's just it's kind of wild to
Speaker 5: see that this stuff is coming from inside the house
Speaker 5: where Putin is somehow, some way, uh, somebody who can
Speaker 5: be trusted in any way to negotiate uh, And it's.
Speaker 6: Coming from our own officials for the most part. And it's.
Speaker 5: Disheartening to say the least. And forget it if you're
Speaker 5: from Ukraine, I mean what I mean at that point,
Speaker 5: or Europe. So that's just me, Yeah, running my mouth, Nick,
Speaker 5: what do you think?
Speaker 1: Well, I'll try to start with one positive is you know,
Speaker 1: at least we're talking, right, because you're never gonna get
Speaker 1: to a ceized part negotiated settlement without talking. And the
Speaker 1: other point is you know Ukraine is not losing, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, talk about a group that's been completely underestimated
Speaker 1: from the beginning till now, and there's a there's a
Speaker 1: plausible way ahead if Europe steps up that even if
Speaker 1: the US steps out, which would be a huge mistake,
Speaker 1: not just for Ukraine and our status in the world,
Speaker 1: but for all our relationships going forward. Who deem as
Speaker 1: a completely unreliable allied partner. But there is a way
Speaker 1: that Ukraine can stay.
Speaker 2: In the fight. I won't be easy.
Speaker 1: But Russia's losing so many troops right now that even
Speaker 1: though they could care less about the that personally, it
Speaker 1: eventually runs out and they're gaining very little terrain with
Speaker 1: the amount of expenditure of force on the On the
Speaker 1: issue of the seas far, essentially, Russia rejected the seas
Speaker 1: far proposal by the United States. You know, we keep saying, oh,
Speaker 1: they said yes, and then said, but only infrastructure, energy infrastructure,
Speaker 1: and by energy infrastructure, I mean our infrastructure, because they
Speaker 1: immediately turned around intacked Ukrainian energy and infrastructure. And really
Speaker 1: the only reason why they're focused on energy infrastructure is
Speaker 1: because Ukraine has been incredibly effective against targeting Russian energy
Speaker 1: infrastructure and they only have a one track economy energy infrastructure.
Speaker 1: So he wanted that because that's the one thing that
Speaker 1: would advantage him. And then all the other things you said,
Speaker 1: He's it's complete maximists, giveaway nothing, asked for everything, and
Speaker 1: then try to get the other side to fight each other.
Speaker 1: They're beyond getting the other side to fight each other
Speaker 1: because they literally have a special envoy repeating Russian talking points,
Speaker 1: which even I mean, obviously we should be on the
Speaker 1: side of the Ukraine. But even if we're just a mediator,
Speaker 1: you don't repeat any sides talking points. That's not the point,
Speaker 1: right you go in, especially in public as a mediator,
Speaker 1: you just keep talking about the in state, but you
Speaker 1: also don't talk about what's called, you know, for the
Speaker 1: policy walks out there. It was a final status issues,
Speaker 1: that's what's supposed to come out the other end. You
Speaker 1: don't talk about it publicly because that's the whole point
Speaker 1: of the negotiation process. So, you know, obviously not taking
Speaker 1: advice from me, but you know, I would advise that
Speaker 1: we are openly for Ukraine because there are partners and
Speaker 1: we did promise them security guarantees back in nineteen ninety four,
Speaker 1: and that General Kellogg should be running this thing as
Speaker 1: he was, but at the very least, stop talking about
Speaker 1: it publicly, Stop stop issuing declarations on final status issues,
Speaker 1: and start coming up with sticks for Russia because they're
Speaker 1: not going forward with this. And as we start talking
Speaker 1: additional sanctions, enhanced security assistance, so more not just what
Speaker 1: we were given, but more, and then you know, whatever
Speaker 1: else we can come up with for sticks and then
Speaker 1: give Russia a reason to come to the table, they'll
Speaker 1: start losing terrain. If we double down on our security assistance,
Speaker 1: they'll start losing the funding to pay for the North
Speaker 1: Korean troops, the Iranian drones if we further damage their
Speaker 1: economy through sanctions. So that's how you get across to Russia.
Speaker 1: They don't You could complement them all day long. They'd
Speaker 1: be happy with that, but it's not going to make
Speaker 1: it hell of beans. They only stand understand consequences, and
Speaker 1: if there's no consequence, then they're just going to drag
Speaker 1: this out until And the last point that I make
Speaker 1: is in Prime Minister Maloney made this so the conservative
Speaker 1: Italian Prime minister. The only reason why Russia cares about
Speaker 1: security guarantees is because they intend to attack Ukraine. Right,
Speaker 1: If you don't intend to reattack Ukraine, then what do
Speaker 1: you care about security guarantees or it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: So I think Europe's waking up, and that's a good thing,
Speaker 1: and they should have woke up a long time ago.
Speaker 1: They're going to work on their own defense, and I
Speaker 1: think they're going to quadruple down if they need to
Speaker 1: on Ukraine because it's definitely in their interest to stop
Speaker 1: putin in its tracks in Ukraine and eventually you get
Speaker 1: Ukraine into the European Union and then whatever version comes
Speaker 1: out of NATO, if that's really where we're.
Speaker 2: Headed, which would be a mistake if we leave it.
Speaker 1: One more point of that, if we actually get Europe
Speaker 1: to the point where it is an extraordinarily effective military force,
Speaker 1: all paying twice as much as they used to pay
Speaker 1: on their own defense, and then leave NATO, that would be,
Speaker 1: from a strategic perspective, incredibly short sighted. We would literally
Speaker 1: have to make up in our defense budget where we
Speaker 1: just cut ourselves away.
Speaker 2: From them by leaving the NATO.
Speaker 1: Although I don't think it's going to happen, but since
Speaker 1: people like to talk about this so much, it would
Speaker 1: make no sense from the U from solely the US perspective,
Speaker 1: to leave an entity that's now an incredibly effective fighting force,
Speaker 1: which Europeans will will be one day.
Speaker 2: All right, off the soapbox.
Speaker 4: Andy, Yeah, you know.
Speaker 7: You know the problem is I make and I agree
Speaker 7: on two manch stuff. So I'm not going to You know,
Speaker 7: I couldn't word it better than McK did you know?
Speaker 7: I agree with him in all those counts, So I'll
Speaker 7: put I'll just approach this from a very different and
Speaker 7: perhaps a personal level. So first of all, you know,
Speaker 7: I'm not going to rail away about the you know,
Speaker 7: are my concern about the fact that we to be
Speaker 7: coosing up to put in my feelings about the Russian
Speaker 7: so well known and and maybe I'm just overly emotional
Speaker 7: because they did try to kill me on a on
Speaker 7: a number of occasions, and I take that very personally.
Speaker 7: And you know, to mixed point about Europe stepping up
Speaker 7: to the plate, I think and actually playing the mature
Speaker 7: party in all of this.
Speaker 2: I think it's you know, spot on.
Speaker 7: You know, it just is a as as a comment too,
Speaker 7: because invariably, and I read when I read the comments
Speaker 7: about our appearances on on on ice on, and we've
Speaker 7: got some great supporters, and we've got some people who
Speaker 7: reappear and or and I call them supporters too, but
Speaker 7: they're kind of they're motivated by hatred and resentment, and
Speaker 7: they really critique us increasingly for our lack of loyalty
Speaker 7: to the United States, which seems to be absurd that
Speaker 7: I would like to comment on about this, you know,
Speaker 7: this whole DISCUSSI about what the defense of Ukraine stands for,
Speaker 7: et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 7: I mean, I spent thirty one years in uniform, fourteen
Speaker 7: wars on the behalf of the United States, from Mogot
Speaker 7: issue all the way through to the fight against ISIS.
Speaker 2: And you know, one.
Speaker 7: Thing that that I never really, never really made sense
Speaker 7: to me is when people thanked me for defending our freedom,
Speaker 7: because our freedom has never has never been a threat.
Speaker 7: This country has not been, not during my lifetime. And
Speaker 7: you know, while I certainly acknowledge and appreciate the thank
Speaker 7: you for your service and all that, but this constant
Speaker 7: talk about how we're defending the freedom of the United
Speaker 7: States was all bullshit. When it comes down to it,
Speaker 7: we were doing well we had to do. You know,
Speaker 7: I'm not undermining the patriotism of my comrades and arms,
Speaker 7: but we were doing what we had to do on
Speaker 7: behalf of our country, on behalf of the national interest.
Speaker 7: But we weren't defending freedom at all. Ukrainians are defending freedom, Okay,
Speaker 7: maybe not of the United States but of Europe. And
Speaker 7: they're defending ideals that I sometimes found difficult to align
Speaker 7: with what we were doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. That
Speaker 7: is why it makes sense for guys like Nate fans
Speaker 7: who we interviewed the other day, or do myself with
Speaker 7: the guys and the Mozart group who have been in
Speaker 7: Ukraine when we were doing what we did. And you know,
Speaker 7: that's probably what I need to say on this and
Speaker 7: why it makes perfect.
Speaker 2: Sense now.
Speaker 7: Continue. It continues to make perfect sense that Europe is
Speaker 7: stepping up to the plane and that it makes no
Speaker 7: sense at all to rely on putin all the Russians
Speaker 7: to hold the peace. I mean, you don't even have
Speaker 7: to be a student of history. You just have to
Speaker 7: read the news over the last decade or so to
Speaker 7: understand that. And it probably brings me sounding like an
Speaker 7: angry you know, whenever I read listeners. But you know,
Speaker 7: I think a lot of the problems with this closing
Speaker 7: up to rush right now, and I'm watching the well
Speaker 7: sterer of weirdness on social media. It comes from people
Speaker 7: who are really, really fucking ignorant and just don't They
Speaker 7: don't even read recent history, they don't understand geopolitics. That's
Speaker 7: really what it comes down to. And it's sad and
Speaker 7: it's but the isolationism in the last century has not
Speaker 7: well worked well for the United States, and it worked
Speaker 7: well now that is all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And if I can make one point on it
Speaker 1: what Andy just said. You know, as far as you
Speaker 1: know patriotism versus the alternative being I guess treachery that
Speaker 1: was well, look at it. Your patriotism or lack thereof,
Speaker 1: has to do with your fidelity to the Constitution and
Speaker 1: your service of the country, right, So.
Speaker 2: You could be.
Speaker 1: You know, Mark Kelly to use the example of somebody
Speaker 1: who's calling the trader obviously isn't or Mike wols right,
Speaker 1: it shouldn't be you're based on your political position. If
Speaker 1: that's the case, that's not patriotism. That is that is uh,
Speaker 1: that's just partisanism. And you know that's the way I
Speaker 1: view it. So if you're calling somebody a trader because
Speaker 1: you disagree with them politically, I mean you might want
Speaker 1: to redefine your definition of patriotism. And that's not just
Speaker 1: what you know, names we recognize. But you know, obviously
Speaker 1: I have a lot of friends that served, in fact
Speaker 1: most of them, and they're from across the political spectrum, right,
Speaker 1: But I don't I don't define their service to their
Speaker 1: country or their status as a patriot or not based
Speaker 1: on you know, whether they're far right, far left, or
Speaker 1: somewhere in the center. If you do, then we just
Speaker 1: fundamentally disagree on the definition.
Speaker 2: Of the word.
Speaker 5: Yeah, very well said by both of you, guys. I
Speaker 5: have a question. There is a prevailing thought that I'm
Speaker 5: seeing that the Russian economy, now how it's constituted because
Speaker 5: of the war, is heavily reliant on the war continuing,
Speaker 5: and that might be a reason why Putin is apprehensive
Speaker 5: to make a deal. I think that's bullshit, but that
Speaker 5: is a pf prevailing thought that's going on right now
Speaker 5: because at some point, I mean, you lose enough, guys,
Speaker 5: I mean, what is your economy without the people in
Speaker 5: it to work it.
Speaker 1: In next generation? I mean, I don't know. I'd like
Speaker 1: to hear somebody who kind of thought that through. I'd
Speaker 1: be interested to hear from somebody who knows more about
Speaker 1: economies economics than I do, but explain it.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I do think right now he thinks he's he could
Speaker 1: still gain territory, and potentially I think that's one of
Speaker 1: the reasons.
Speaker 2: But if this is another, I'd like to hear it.
Speaker 7: You know, Yeah, I don't. I haven't heard that d
Speaker 7: And to me on it, I'm not an economists, but
Speaker 7: it simply doesn't make sense. You know, the the economy
Speaker 7: is taking a shell acking, and I think it's I mean,
Speaker 7: I think it's just much more basic than that. Putin
Speaker 7: has staked everything on this war. It was his war,
Speaker 7: you know, it was a it was gru war in
Speaker 7: FSB war. It was not a military you know, his
Speaker 7: military weren't telling him to do it. They were pretty
Speaker 7: docile in the face of it. But there is has
Speaker 7: been since the outset of the war increasing resentment against
Speaker 7: the administration, administration regime from within the military. Remember Progosians
Speaker 7: kind of attempted coup and the fact that he was
Speaker 7: he was almost embraced by many within the army's leadership.
Speaker 7: Putin knows that he must know that, and he knows
Speaker 7: that his position is precarious if he cannot, if he
Speaker 7: cannot show some gains from this war, you know, I mean,
Speaker 7: he hasn't here to begin with. For the first eighteen
Speaker 7: months of the war, he was more or less able
Speaker 7: to kind of isolate the Russian public from the effects
Speaker 7: of casualties. But the war is becoming increasingly is increasingly unpopular,
Speaker 7: and he's had to take increasingly draconian measures to stamp
Speaker 7: down on our position. If it is shown subsequently the
Speaker 7: up outcome is shown to be anything but a victory,
Speaker 7: he looks very poor, indeed, And again you don't you know,
Speaker 7: however strong right insulated, he may feel. Just to look
Speaker 7: at again post Soviet Union, Russian history shows that you
Speaker 7: as a leader, you've got to be dynamic, dynamic in Russia,
Speaker 7: in other words, having success either with the economy or
Speaker 7: in some other way, or or you're gonna you're gonna
Speaker 7: sink and someone's gonna come after you. And and Putin
Speaker 7: knows that that is why he wants to prolong the wall.
Speaker 7: As long as there is a war, there is something
Speaker 7: to focus on. There's something to focus his uh, his
Speaker 7: repressive measures within the country on, something to justify to
Speaker 7: find them by without the wall. Once it ends, uh,
Speaker 7: there's this, there's going to be a backlash. And he
Speaker 7: knows that.
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, very well said. I have one more question
Speaker 6: having to do with Russia.
Speaker 5: I've heard and there is another thought that the reason
Speaker 5: why we're trying to reset things with Russia is because
Speaker 5: we want to drive a stake in between Russia and China.
Speaker 5: And that's why we're doing that. That's why we're being
Speaker 5: buddy more buddy buddy with Russia. I agree that I
Speaker 5: feel that's bullshit as well.
Speaker 1: But it's always it's been a long term, uh, policy
Speaker 1: objective of the United States, the Sino Soviet split, going
Speaker 1: back to you know, Kissinger and all that. It it's
Speaker 1: not a bad idea, especially you're in the Soviet Union
Speaker 1: times Cold War. It's not gonna work. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: just not and and and of course ours is going
Speaker 1: to cycle, right, so we'll have well, we haven't really
Speaker 1: ever had anybody who's pro Russian as president, so let's
Speaker 1: say that. But as its cycles, we're not going to
Speaker 1: stay consistent.
Speaker 2: Put it that way.
Speaker 1: Uh, the Soviet in in China, I mean, excuse me,
Speaker 1: the Russian in China leadership probably gonna stay is consistent,
Speaker 1: considering their autocrats. So it's just it's just not gonna work.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we could try to drive a wedge,
Speaker 1: but we just have to be realistic and the fact
Speaker 1: that it's never actually worked, and that cozing up to
Speaker 1: the Russians is only going to last as long as
Speaker 1: it's at advantage to the Russians. So I looked up
Speaker 1: how many times Russias invaded a country since like nineteen
Speaker 1: forty I think nineteen thirty, late thirties. It's like eleven
Speaker 1: times and including two countries twice, one on b in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: So like the idea that you can trust these folks
Speaker 1: for a ceasefire, I mean it just defies you know, Wikipedia,
Speaker 1: just google it, look it up, right. So, I mean
Speaker 1: the past is prologus, man. So if you want to
Speaker 1: see what they have done in the past, when they've
Speaker 1: signed agreements or said they wouldn't do something and then
Speaker 1: did there it is, so be careful who you buddy
Speaker 1: up to. It's it is not in our interest, never
Speaker 1: has been, and at least with somebody like Putin in charge,
Speaker 1: it won't be.
Speaker 7: The fact that anyone actually believes that coosing up to
Speaker 7: Russia's going to help us against China. It's just shows
Speaker 7: a level of ignorance that's beyond comfort hension, you know.
Speaker 7: I mean, let's just be clear. Russia is a second rate,
Speaker 7: ten part fucking autocracy. It's a paper tiger, Okay, China
Speaker 7: is a powerhouse. We do need to be concerned about China,
Speaker 7: But dividing a wedge between the two countries as Mick
Speaker 7: pointed out, is impractical and b does us no good
Speaker 7: at all, and certainly not by closing up to Russia.
Speaker 7: You know, I mean, let's you know, Russia's our adversary.
Speaker 7: You know we've said this before. Russia is not our friend,
Speaker 7: all right, NATO the country's and NATO are our friend.
Speaker 7: The country's are NATO, as we talked about before. But
Speaker 7: I was just remind people because apparently there are still
Speaker 7: those who don't understand NATO. The only time they've activated
Speaker 7: Article five in NATO was in the defense of the
Speaker 7: United States, and by the way, that was that was
Speaker 7: a very generous extrapolation on those countries part so that
Speaker 7: they could come to our aid in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Speaker 7: It's just you know, I mean what Canada's.
Speaker 2: Are in me now?
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, right in Russia's economy is about
Speaker 1: half of that of California. Yeah, if we want these folks,
Speaker 1: which have zero to trade to be our primary trading partners,
Speaker 1: were in a lot of problems.
Speaker 2: They are everything that Andy just said, and I just
Speaker 2: need to be careful with this.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: Again, I didn't believe that.
Speaker 5: I'm just saying what I've been hearing in terms of
Speaker 5: like other shows and folks that think they're like folks
Speaker 5: that are.
Speaker 6: In this sphere.
Speaker 5: I guess I've heard that a few times, and I'm
Speaker 5: just like, how does that make fucking sense? I mean,
Speaker 5: you just look at like a guy like Medvedev, who
Speaker 5: was like the president there for a little bit while
Speaker 5: putn was, you know, running things in the background before
Speaker 5: he changed the constitution in Russia. You know, it looked
Speaker 5: like there was like a great relationship with team and
Speaker 5: him and Obama. You see him now, he's full on cuoo,
Speaker 5: you know, full on crazy warmonger dude, tweeting off, shooting
Speaker 5: off tweets that are like insane if you read them.
Speaker 5: And the fact is we've talked about this before. Andy,
Speaker 5: you said it like he was full of shit. Then
Speaker 5: just like he's you know, this is who he really is,
Speaker 5: and this is how Russians, the Russian power you know,
Speaker 5: power players, really do it like they're full of shit.
Speaker 4: For the most part.
Speaker 7: It just frightens me the level of ignorance, honestly, I
Speaker 7: mean within our own country. And I don't know, I
Speaker 7: don't know if it's the education system. I don't know
Speaker 7: if it's the fact that we feel insulated by two oceans,
Speaker 7: even in this area of globalization. But just kind of
Speaker 7: the it's it's more than lack of education. It's just
Speaker 7: kind of lack of real interest. And it's as though
Speaker 7: we just don't pay attention to what's going on in
Speaker 7: the world collectively. And it's it's quite it has frightening
Speaker 7: consequences at times. And watch there'll be a deluge of
Speaker 7: people critics accusing me now of being a trader and
Speaker 7: undermining the United States and being a US hater and etcetera, etcetera,
Speaker 7: against whom you know. I will again remind you, guys
Speaker 7: that I spent thirty one years in uniform defending defending freedom,
Speaker 7: but on the behalf of the United States, and obviously
Speaker 7: obviously in a real term, say patriot.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, boys, that was spicy. I like getting Andy worked
Speaker 5: up and read how he makes for good good podcast listening. Well, Tom,
Speaker 5: don't forget to check out the show to subscribe to
Speaker 5: the show.
Speaker 6: Like the show.
Speaker 5: If you're listening to us an audio, rat it and
Speaker 5: subscribe there. Andy millerburn When the Tempest Gathers a tremendous book.
Speaker 5: Read it. The link is in the description as well.
Speaker 5: Any and all of his links to Twitter, just any
Speaker 5: link that you want to find Andy, It's in the description.
Speaker 5: Mick Molroy, Lobo fog Bo doing great work. All of
Speaker 5: his links are in the description as well. If you
Speaker 5: want to follow Mick on social media, links are in
Speaker 5: the description. And yeah, this is great. Do me a favorite, guys,
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Speaker 5: thank you guys. This is great.
Speaker 2: Have a great rest of your Sunday.