Speaker 1: You are welcome to the best sports betting show on
the planet. This is wager Talk Today. I am your host,
Andy Lang. It is Monday. We got a fun one
lined up home Run Derby, we got All Star Game props,
a couple player betting props, and angles you want to hear.
So let's kick off the week with some really really
good content here guys.
Speaker 2: You guys know what to do. Hit the like button.
Speaker 1: Gianni's gonna join us. Tell us if there's any steam
on this Monday. Crack Man's gonna join us. We're gonna
talk home Run Derby prop as well as this new
robot umpiring thing we're border they can challenge. We're testing
this out in the All Star Game, but spoiler it's
gonna be an MLB sooner rather than later. And then
Sewn Alvarez is bringing the heat, not one, not two,
but three Home Run Derby player props. And then Dan
and myself will break down the Rams nine and a
half season win total Los Angeles Rams. So thanks for
joining us, everybody. I hope you had a great weekend.
Let's get right to it. Let's bring in Gianni. Gianni.
One of the deadest.
Speaker 2: Weeks of the year for some For me, I love
this week.
Speaker 1: I got a I got a UFC huge event, I've
got the Open Championship with golf, I've still got some
WNBA player props. H I love weeks like this, first off?
Speaker 2: How do you tackle weeks where there's just not a
whole lot going on?
Speaker 3: Historically I would go on vacation this week, like I'd
go to the Bahamas, or last year I went down
to Florida. It was a wedding a close friend of mine,
so I ended up making it like a five six
day vacation out of it. That's how I usually like
unplug it and break away. Even though there is opportunity,
I'd still be getting down, meaning as information came in,
I would still be betting it and moving it. I
just wouldn't be, you know, putting in the hours that
I put in usually you know, seven days a week.
It's that kind of job. So you got to find
some spots to unplug or else you just get you know,
that that repetition of it. You know, you got to
get some some of that hunger and some of that drive.
And the best way to do that is to, you know,
sometimes unplug and take a break which is difficult in
our industry because it's three sixty five, seven days a
week and there's constant markets offering any fishing lines for
you to take advantage. So it's almost like people ask
me why he works seven days because I feel guilty
just sitting there not working. Like you know, there's opportunity
every single day, and we don't. We're not guaranteed a paycheck.
It's not the kind of job where I have to
put in the hours and I'm guaranteed this return. It
doesn't work like that. It works by, you know, taking
advantage of the market any opportunity that comes, and it's
not like guaranteed money. So you kind of feel like
guilty when you're not working. But it's just a long
way of saying historically I would use this week to unplug.
This week, this year, I'm not doing that because I
just got way too much going on. I'm just way
too busy. I can't dedicate a week of just relaxation
doing nothing, So I'm just going to be working as
usual because again I'm preparing for a nice college football
NFL and like you said, you still got MMA, we
still got WNBA, we got NBA Summer the Major League
Baseball short break for a couple of days, but still
all that going on. In fact, I just released a
four percent best bet in WNBA four tonight. I also
released a three percent in the wt A Hamburg Open.
Uh tennis that goes off, I believe, uh later today.
I put that up for free also at wager Talk,
so on my free page, make sure you check that out.
It's a free tennis play a plus one fifty. Nice
little dog. We've done well with those historically, So yeah,
there's there's action. There's action.
Speaker 1: Well, right before we went live, Dan and I uncovered
Lacrosse Future that we're gonna put in for clients. Like
it's like there's always It's just like there's always something there.
Speaker 2: So, uh, is there a steam report for this morning?
Anything of note?
Speaker 3: No early off in the SHAREFF And then in NBA
Summer League five nineteen Chicago Bulls at plus five, but
that number is gone. You're probably gonna see three three
and a half's out there right now. That's the only
thing we hit early. I couldn't even release that to
subscribers because it moved so quickly. And in NBA five
it's one of those numbers that matter for whatever reason.
So as soon as I saw we couldn't get the
five anymore, there was no reason to release the subscribers.
But I got down a little bit on Chicago at
plus five. Nothing really in w NBA except, like I said,
the four percent high release tennis. I shared that with
the guys. Make sure you go over and get that
free play. But yeah, pretty pretty slow. And most of
the guys that I know that I work with that
are originators, and even some of the my contacts with
the betting syndicates, they're taking it l like this week.
I mean, that's just the truth. They know it's about
to get busy, you know, after this week, it's pretty
much every single day through the super Bowl. So I
think a lot of even sharp betters are taking advantage
of at least the first few days like Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
and then Thursday Friday they start getting back into the mix.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: You take a look at the the UFC lines, anything
jump out for you?
Speaker 2: I already did my article.
Speaker 1: There's a couple ones that surprised me, wondering if anything
jumped off the page to you early.
Speaker 3: I'm interested in the main event, you know, I did
a show on UFC on the line that's already out.
Actually we taped it. It'll come out today as if
it's live, but it was taped last week. I like
Max Holloway. Our line we were using was like minus
one fifteen. Either way, I thought the I understand the
argument of whoever's the dog, that's probably the right sign
because it's a coin flip fight.
Speaker 5: I disagree.
Speaker 3: I think Max Holloway should be about close to a
minus one fifty favorite where he wins this fight six
out of ten times.
Speaker 4: And I liked it.
Speaker 3: The market slowly but surely moving in that direction. In fact,
that online one of the most respected when it comes
to MMA. They're already up to minus one thirty five
on the Holloway sign. And again, it has nothing to
do with not being able to beat the same guy
three times. I just think it's a lot of pressure
on forty eight. He's fighting in his home town. It's
a it's a retirement fight. Just imagine all the people
reaching out to him during while he's trying to train,
uh for interviews, for tickets, for just just trying to
make it. You know, what do we do with his retirement,
let alone dealing with Max Holloway on the other side.
And then the motivation for Max Holloway, which we can't
really quantify what's motivation worth, but bottom line is this guy,
more or less you're the highlight reel for his career,
meaning Max Holloway's debut in the UFC. He got choked
out what in the first round to Dustin Poriheier was
like a minus four hundred at that time, Poorier was
undefeated in the UFC and he already had a history
in the WEC. The second time they fought, both were
going in with a hot street and what happens. Dustin
ruins Max's twelve or thirteen fight Winstree and Max, Let's
not forget closed it like a minus two hundred minus
two twenty, very close fight. But also that was Max's
first fight at lightweight. Remember he was a featherweight. He
was fighting one fine and he did not buke up
for that fight. That was the first step up at lightweight.
He did not look like a lightweight that night. And
in fact, even though he threw more and landed more
than Dustin and was able to stuff seven out of
eight takedowns from Dustin, it was the damage that did
Holloway in he wren'd more on his face because Dustin
was the stronger, bigger, more powerful guy. That's not the
case anymore. And again I like the trajectory. This is
the end of Dustin's career. Max, could you know, make
a big statement here? Yeah, I like Holloway in this
fight again up to minus one fifty. I think he's
the right side that jumped out of me right away.
Speaker 5: Again.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 3: A beautiful story and we want to see him go
out with a win. But I think Holloway is gonna
throw a wrench into those plans.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent. I think the
volume is just going to be too much. And be honest, Johnny,
come on, what are we gonna take away from a
fight that was in twenty twelve.
Speaker 3: And real quick? So I have to throw this out
just in case we don't forget it. Yeah, how is
Danny Gay now minus two twenty over pit Bull? How
is that even possible? Let's not forget now you're Rodriguez. Yeah,
ear Rodriguez just full pit Bull two months ago? Pit
Bull was a plus one thirty dog too. Yeah, hear Rodriguez.
Pipulls now plus one eighty dog to Ega.
Speaker 5: What would ya ear be with Egay?
Speaker 4: Ega would be favor over ya ear? Are you kidding me?
Speaker 3: Would be about a two to one favorite at least
over Egay. So off line value alone, you've gotta bet
pit Bull. His his stock at its lowest. This is
a free roll for him. Lost his debut in the UFC.
He's got to go balls to the wall. It doesn't
even matter, Like if he loses this fight, it's done.
All that story career Belatore more or less for nothing,
because as soon as you stepped up to the UFC level,
he got annihilated. So again, I think it's a good
spot for him, and I think it's a good matchup
against Egay. I'm I'm a huge Egay fan. But you
want to bet Ega as a dog. Look at his
strength of schedule, He's usually a dog. He's in his
last five fights, he's been favored one time because he's
has such a difficult strength of schedule, and he does
good as a dog, But you don't want to bet
him in the favorites role at minus two hundred, even
if he wins his fight. I think it's a terrible bet.
I think pit Bull that jumped out at me too,
because his stocks at its lowest, you can't look worse
than he did against Yair in that fight. I mean
he landed like what eleven significant strikes over fifteen minutes.
So again, I think I'll use a Marco phrase, no
one's ever as good as they look in any one game,
and I think it pertains to fights as well. No
one's ever as good or bad as they look in
any fight. And I think he looked as bad as
you can possibly look in that fight. So yeah, I
think pit Bull for some value as well.
Speaker 2: I agree with you one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, year is such a difficult puzzle to figure out,
and you know, pit Bull lost. But I went back
and watched that fight yesterday. It was a lot closer
than I remembered. And also, you look at Didygay. Technically
he won his last fight by a ko. It was
one of the worst stopping ever. Woodson was Woodson was rock.
But Woodson was fine, he was fighting back.
Speaker 2: Was bad stopping. So I'm with you one hundred percent
on those regions.
Speaker 5: Man, We'll talk.
Speaker 3: Sorry, sorry, sorry now, I just saw a wolf my
man the nets one yesterday, Bro, they won I live
in the world to eleven to ten at plus seven.
They cashed the ticket. That's what matters. I don't know
if they're gonna win or not. I don't know they're
gonna cash the ticket. I believe they cashed the ticket.
Speaker 2: And yeah, sometimes it does happen.
Speaker 1: Sometimes I say something's gonna happen, and then it doesn't happen.
We're trying to hit fifty Yeah, we're trying hit fifty
six percent of our predictions and we'll be loaded. So Giotti,
teller what you have up but wager talk today?
Speaker 3: All right, I'll have that isolated WNBA play. We'll be
up with in the next thirty minutes of four percent play.
I like this one a lot. Best bet for tonight,
isolated one steam play, multiple groups on the same side.
I love it, especially when they bet it off screen
and I could get more money down. Also, five percent
coming out in UFC that will go out to subscribers today.
I've been chopping at the bit to release this. I
bet it last week, but I need more books to
offer UFC three eighteen lines so my subscribers could get
the same number. Since it's a five percenter, you know,
I'm number one over the last three sixty five on
those number one in MMA five percent, they've been on fire.
Didn't have one last week, but I do have one
for UFC three eighteen. That pack. You'll be up today
as well. But don't forget free plus one fifty dog
for you in tennis. Hope you do some damage.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it, Appreciate you, Gianni.
Speaker 1: Let's have a good week here. We're gonna move right
to crack Man. We're gonna talk to the Home Run
Derby and All Star Game. I want to talk about
the robot umps in the All Star Game real quick.
Speaker 2: Just to go over the format for the Home Run
Derby so everyone knows.
Speaker 1: In round one, all eight participants get three minutes or
forty pitches, whichever comes first.
Speaker 2: So whoever's pitching.
Speaker 1: A lot of it comes down to who's pitching to
these guys. They try to hit a many home runs
as possible bonus period where they get three outs plus
an extra out for a four.
Speaker 2: Hundred and twenty five plus foot home run. That's a
weird rule.
Speaker 1: Then the top four advance to the semis two minutes
or twenty seven pitchers per batter ties in the semifinals
and finals are broken by a sixty a sixty second
swing off. So that's your format here. So that is yeah,
July fourteenth, that's tonight, eight o'clock pm, Eastern time. Let's
bring in crack Man. Let's talk a little bit of
Home Run Derby if we got a prop in that one,
and get his take on the Robot's Happy Monday bill.
Speaker 4: How are you?
Speaker 2: How was your weekend?
Speaker 4: Good? Good? Good? You know, I am a boxing and
baseball guy. I grew up back East boxing and baseball.
I know, kind of boring to some people that like
the UFC and the crazier sports out there, but that's
just that's what I grew up on. And I'll always
love to go to baseball games. It used to go
to Shay as a kid, Yankee Stadium as a kid,
and the Home Run Derby and the All Star Break
in general was always a fun thing to sell all
my favorite players and when I was a kid, and
and and and who doesn't like the home Run Derby?
All the fans are there with their kids, and then
you have the players with their kids sitting on the
field and the foul sections. You know, it's just it's
a great family event. It's a fun event. And you know,
with all the new sports books that came to the country,
they really put this out. There is a big betting event.
Now you can always bet on it. I guess, I
guess the last fifteen years, but it's definitely gotten much
much more press and it's fun. So they're trying to
do different ways. They're trying to entice the fans in
more and maybe change the rules and make a little
more exciting. But it really is so cool to go
to one. I've never been to an All Star Games.
How cool it must be to you know, your kids,
go out with your kids, take some take take your
gloves and go to that home run derby and hope
the kids can you know, catch a home run and
and and unbelievably, you know, every swing is going for
the home run ball. So it's always fun to see
a home run when you go to a game, never
mind a home run derby. So it should be a
fun night. It's gonna be a little humid, though I've
seen the hot and humid there. You know this this
event historically has had some effect on some players, so
some of the bigger names kind of stay out over
the years because they don't want to hurt themselves for
the second half of the season, you know, taking these
big swings and it could take something out of them,
but it still should be a fun night and interesting night.
Speaker 2: Who do you like You got a prop for us
for the home run derby?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Buxton on the Twins, so just to make the
finals that he's plus four to one, a little value here,
you know, Buxton, First of all, this is he's a
long guys obviously the fifth, the fifth favor on the board,
but kind of a homecoming for him. He's a Georgia boy,
and this will be a Georgia crowd, so that does help.
Sometimes we'll have a lot of family and friends there.
He's been swinging it really well lately, twenty one home
runs this season so far. Hit for the cycle on Saturday. Wow,
that's such a big accomplishment for the cycle. He's bringing
his batting coach, I re read, who he's known for
twelve years, so that you helped him too. I could
see him being very motivated just to make these finals here. Again,
this is nothing crazy, you know, don't don't go you know,
throwing a BArch percentage of your bankroll on something like this.
It's a little fun four to one shot worth a
sprinkle here. Yeah, so I like him and just to
make the finals a plus four to one.
Speaker 1: I like that good four to one prop. And what's
your thoughts on them?
Speaker 2: Kind of?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's inevitable they're they're gonna move some type
of challenge or replay your robo umps into Major League Baseball.
I mean, this is just inevitable. What's your take on them?
Trying to experiment is inevitable?
Speaker 4: And then but what we've seen what happened with the NFL,
and sometimes it makes for more controversy and even even
more of a non decision making thing. But robot ums,
you know, I'm still that old school guy that likes
that human element, that human field, the things. Uh, they're
gonna get things wrong though, I understand. But I'm interested
to see how this goes, to see if you know
that this could be something that could be done fair
and and if it is fair, and if it is
a something that can help they get the true outcome,
well then see I'm not just I'm not an AI
guy either.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 4: I just you know, people are saying to me. I
find people say, oh, Ai is coming. Bill, It's gonna
be scary for guys. You may be your team or originators. Listen.
I don't think AI can ever put into the beat
writers information that's out there that's that you have to
physically read and find out or listen to. I just
don't think that AI can talk about injuries or weather,
or or or are they could put that into that
unless it has to be manually inputed. I'm just not
an AI guy when it comes to baseball, football, basketball handicapping.
But hey, I could change. Definitely. You have to evolve.
So if it does, if there's some elements of AI
or these robot MPs that are into the game and
and and help out the sport, I'm all for it.
But like I said, old school guy, I like human
element eye people that you know. I'm an old Billy
Martin and uh, you know these guys out there kicking dirt,
screaming at the umpires. I kind of enjoy that. Earl
Weaver on the Baltimore and Baltimore Oriols, those type of guys.
We can't lose those guys to these. There's no one
to argue it. Now with these robot ops.
Speaker 1: You can't you can't go out and go chest to
chest with a rope.
Speaker 5: But that's a great point.
Speaker 1: Well this Bill, I will tell you how I use AI.
The research is shaky best, so I don't use it.
But what I do do is I use chat GMT
to help me with my write ups. I can put
in bullet points and it.
Speaker 5: Makes you know you.
Speaker 1: You teach it how your writing style is, and you
put in previous write ups and articles that you like,
and then you do your research and then you plug
it in and it writes it much more eloquently h
than you.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I I I experimented.
Speaker 1: With like just asking it some questions about like the
NFL draft, and it was it was wrong, right, That's
what That's what's so dangerous about it is some of
the research is just like comes out You're like, ah,
that's not even close.
Speaker 4: So yeah, you.
Speaker 2: Gotta be careful with it. So they're doing the challenges
and I always love here.
Speaker 1: First off, I tell you this right now, Bill, the
players are not going to know how to use it properly.
They're gonna use it at the wrong time, like it's
gonna be the first inning with nobody on base, and
then they'll challenge, and it's like, no, you wait till
there's it's a big play. You wait till the bases
are loaded and you want to argue a pitch. It's
like it's like in the NBA when coaches don't know
how to use challenges, Like they'll use one in the
first half, they'll get it wrong, and now they don't
have one at the very end. So I'm thoroughly gonna
enjoy players not knowing how to use it properly.
Speaker 2: That that that's that's gonna be the first thing.
Speaker 4: That should be that that that should be fun. Andy,
I have a question for you. Yeah, what do you
got going on in the background there? What's over your
left shoulder there?
Speaker 2: Over here?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's over one more? What is the one right
in the middle there?
Speaker 2: Okay, So my mom bought all of these. My mom
bought all of these, uh little like I guess they're they're.
Speaker 1: Like Christmas houses, but they're all they're all old sports
arenas from Indianapolis.
Speaker 2: That's where I live. So that's the old.
Speaker 1: Market Square Arena and that's the old RCA Dome.
Speaker 2: Is that stadium's Yeah? That's ye.
Speaker 1: Wow, how cool it's it's all it's old RCA dome
and you can put uh, you can put a light
in it and it lights up. So yeah, that's what
they're cool. And my mom gave them to me, so
of course they're gonna be in the background.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, no, no, no, And I know it's kind of
off topic, I said, but I thought that was like
a little stadium. So I love I love going to
different stadiums, you know. One of my goals when I
was a kid, and I never got to do it
now because all the sports betting, it's crazy. I wanted
to go to all the baseball stadiums in the summer
and like rent that, rent an RV and just go
and I never got to do that. But so I
just didn't know what that was. In the background there
we could talk about it show.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, this is the week to do it, man, this
is absolutely the week to do it.
Speaker 4: So well, most of the pros all take off now
for the next week or so. Uh and I get it.
You know, we we uh we you know, we work
so hard, especially someone like myself that bets you year round.
I'm literally betting almost every single day of the year.
So it's nice to have that All Star break when
I worked for some of the sharpest center because in
the world. We took off now and actually didn't even
come back for about a month. We came back for
preseason football, which brings me into what I'm going to
say here. Can't wait preseason football only a couple weeks away,
look forward to it. And I know you usually ask
me what I have up on Waiger Talk. I'm gonna
answer that question without and you asking me. I went
today and looked and I seen what they have on there,
and I'll be real blunts. I'm used to selling for
five hundred dollars a month. Wadger Talk has my whole
entire season NFL in college for it's eight ninety nine,
but for some reason they have an all Star break
special of seven seventy seven. So seven seventy seven you
get the entire college and pro football, and then you
get the baseball add on growing ninety nine bucks. So
literally for eight hundred and seventy nine dollars, you get
the rest of baseball season, and you get NFL in college.
That's insane, insane people who will be asking for that
when it will be gone here and in a month
or so. So yeah, I look forward to that, look
forward to having a successful career here with Wader Talk
and you guys, and uh yeah, no, it should be great.
I'm gonna be doing a couple of new shows and
gonna be doing some wager Talk hits, gonna be doing
some top tens, top five, and I think Kelly and
Vegas and I are gonna be starting up a little show,
you know, week a weekly show starting football season. So
it should be fun.
Speaker 1: That's awesome. I can't wait for that. Well, enjoy the week.
It's a busy week for me. We got the Open
champions We got the Open Championship. You're a golf guy
like I love.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, Yeah. I went to the Masters this year. There's
another major. Not I don't have anything up right now yet,
but however, I will have something for the golf absolutely
really successfully, really successful season so far and every year.
But I'll tell you betting golf has been the matchups
player US player top five or top ten, really doing
really good at that also, So look forward to that.
Great information in the golf course. Very good. And you
forgot about that.
Speaker 2: Yep, yep, love it, Bill Krachenberger, And uh yeah.
Speaker 1: Let's gear up for NFL preseason. Let's go, let's go,
let's catch some MLB tickets. A couple yeah, like a
couple of comments in the chat here Stoner Circle uh
said something.
Speaker 2: About BRO say I did BRO say?
Speaker 1: AI can't take weather into account, So you AI, if
when you ask AI to make a prediction, you are
on really really shaky ground because it may not get
the right weather report, it may look at it from
the previous day. It's a really really dangerous game to play.
I have seen AI. I've I've experimented and asked AI
to try and do picks and stuff, and it just
does not do predicting. And no, it really can't take
some weather into account, Like can it take into account
which direction the wind is blowing in baseball?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 1: It should, but I haven't seen it work yet, so yeah,
I would stay away from it. And yeah, I agree
with bild it. Yeah, it doesn't do a good enough
job taking the weather into account. So wolf I's gaming
was asking about the the parlay email. Brooklyn nets plus
eight three percent through plus seven. Yeah, that was that's
the that's the amount of points that they get plus eight,
so they need to win or lose by less than
eight points and looking at the score, they lost by six,
so that means plus seven and plus eight caches. So yeah,
if you got any other questions, just leaving the comments
section or or email support at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: So all right, Keto vegas.
Speaker 1: AAI is garbage besides to organize your Excel spreadsheets or
do really annoying tasks.
Speaker 4: Yes, exactly, that is what you use AI for.
Speaker 1: Get rid of all the annoying tasks. It saves you
a bunch of time. Absolutely, absolutely one. All right, let's
do some free picks. Let's go all around the world world.
But first, real quick, guys, we do have we got
the early Bird special for the football season.
Speaker 2: It's time to lock in serious value.
Speaker 4: Guys.
Speaker 1: You get NFL and College Football early Bird for only
seven hundred and seventy seven dollars. That is a massive,
massive discount. That's every play all season long. Pick your
favorite expert discounted down. And as a bonus, you can
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MLB for just ninety nine dollars added on.
Speaker 2: So if you know you're gonna.
Speaker 1: Get a handicapper for football, just do it now, because
you're getting the best price possible, and you have the
option at MLB so football and baseball that's NFL and
college football covered wall to wall, massive discount. That's smarter win, bigger,
grab the early bird special. Now, all right, let's do
a couple free plays here. We do have one for today.
We're gonna go to the WNBA. We're gonna go the
Links at Sky under one sixty one and a half.
This comes from Ronald Kabang. They've totaled one sixty eight
on Saturday. Is a real quick back to back, so
the Links are probably gonna make adjustments. They're gonna focus
on rebounding and not allowing second chance points. Pace was
above average in that game, so look for this to
come in under the one sixty one and a half.
Excuse me, We're gonna go to UFC three to eighteen
Francisco Prato minus one forty over Nikolai Veron Tennakoff. I
want to get this one to you guys early, because
I think the line's gonna move Varon Tennakoff lost his
first two fights at UFC. He lost to a wrestler
and then he lost to a striker. Not good, very
very low volume on the strikes. He's very hesitant. Prato
is just gonna push a much much faster pace. He's
lost two in a row, but close fights to much
much better competition. So Prado is getting a step down
in competition. Varon Tennakoff is fighting somebody about the same caliber,
maybe even a little bit better than his last two opponents.
So I like Proto to get the win over Veron Tennakoff.
So we'll get that one locked in microh never fade
a name ending in ov. This is not this isn't
Kobeeb's guy.
Speaker 5: This is.
Speaker 2: This is a different cat.
Speaker 1: And we've we've you can fade some of these guys
that are not from the kuld Beb camp or some
of the other ones. So this guy go watch his
last fight. This guy is not not like Islam Makachev
or any of these guys. He's a low volume striker
that can't wrestle.
Speaker 2: Bad news, bad news.
Speaker 1: So let's bring in Sean Alvarez. We're gonna talk some
MLB prop Sean, how are you today?
Speaker 2: How was your weekend?
Speaker 6: I'm great. I mean, you know, nothing like waking up
at two in the morning to watch the Scottish Open.
But you know, we're back at it again this week
for the Open Championship, and you know, while everybody else
is having a little bit of a well deserved vacation,
you know, we've got a Saratoga in full swing and
Delmore starts on Friday, so just like you, and it's
an exciting week for me and looking forward to it.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, Well, let's talk this home run derby. We asked
you for one, you're gonna give us three.
Speaker 2: Let's go, Let's go. The flora is yours. Let's talk
Jazz Chisholm.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, you kind of hit the nail on
the head a little bit earlier when when talking with
Krack about you know, it's these guys are major league
professional hitters, and all of them can hit the ball,
you know, over four hundred and twenty five feet, which
is that you know, bonus distance they're gonna get within
their last three outs tonight. But you know, if you
look at stuff like that, it's it's really on you know,
getting into a groove and making sure the pitchers are
throwing the ball into those crews. And if you look
at who's throwing to Jash Chislm, it's his stepfather, and
he's been you know, Jazz has been quoted saying, I'm
really only looking to give out, you know, a seventy
percent type of effort. I'm looking to have a really
good time and not really do anything more than that.
So you know, we're gonna get a BP pitcher that
you know, isn't throwing to major league caters, not throwing
in front of these large crowds, with you know, a
little bit more on the line. So I'm gonna fade
Junior or Junior. I'm gonna pay Jazz chishlm in the
first round for under seventeen and a half home runs
and you're actually getting not at plus one hundred, So
kind of playing it against you know, him getting into
a groove, maybe having to take a little bit more pitches,
or even swinging at pitches that they haven't worked out
as far as you know, the spot that he wants
to hit from.
Speaker 1: I think you're I think you and Cracker on the
same page with this next one. You're a fan of
Byron Buckston as well.
Speaker 6: Huh, yeah, you know, and he uh, he alluded to
a few points that you know, I'm definitely glad to
be on the same page as Crack, but by Byron
Buckston hits absolute tanks like he did off a jack
lder back last month on the eleventh and eleven one
hundred and eleven mile an hour exit velocity. He doesn't
necessarily put or you know how the swing that is
over exuding stamina or effort. So he should be you know, uh,
you know, get into that groove, not necessarily lose the
stamina and uh uh Crack touched on it again. Tommy
Watkins is the third base coach, the normal BP pitcher
that Byron Buxton's seen since twenty thirteen, so over twelve
years of experience. He knows what Byron wants. He can
get into that groove. He's a professional pitcher, not necessarily
going to change arm angles. So I like that We're
getting a little bit more of value going down down
the odds boards. And I'm gonna play him just to
get out of the first round at plus one twenty.
Speaker 1: All right, give us the winner, Sean, you got it,
you got the you got the winner for us?
Speaker 5: Who is it?
Speaker 3: So?
Speaker 6: I was going back and forth between O'Neill, Cruz and
James Wood. They both have extremely high exit velocities and
they can like a you know, like Byron Buckston. They
can hit absolute tanks. And where I fell off of
O'Neal Cruz was he got taken out of the game
on Saturday with a hip flex or issue and you know,
turning through the ball trying to wrap it around that
right hand or right field valpole, that hip flexer might
be somewhat of an issue. And definitely do not want
to see him on the injured list from the home
run derby. So I'm gonna lean on the six seven.
James Wood with a very long swing his bat barrel,
the barrel of his bat stays in the strike zone
for an extended amount of time. Kind of reminds me
of a obviously not comparing the two, but more of
like a Ken Griffy Junior type of swing. Like I said,
the barrel of his bat stays in the zone. He's
got a good picture in Ricky Gutierrez, which again is
the third base coach and the normal BP pitcher for
the Washington Nationals, So a lot of familiarity going with
James Wood. I think he can use his length within
his swing to save a little bit of stamina for
the later rounds and give me plus four fifty. I
like the chances of James would.
Speaker 4: Winning the night.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: I love it all right before I let you go,
all right, Scheffler and McElroy or the field?
Speaker 2: Who you got for the Open Championship you can take?
Or the field?
Speaker 4: What are the odds on Scheffler.
Speaker 1: McElroy, Scheffler McElroy plus one twenty.
Speaker 6: I'm taking the field. Rory can get a little bit
wayward with his driver. He obviously has the skills to
get out of those, get out of that trouble with
you know, his scrambling ability and his clubhead speed. As
far as Scheffler goes, one key stat that I've kind
of looked at as far as Royal Port Rush is
just being able to work the ball, you know, left
to right and right to left. Scott he tends to
lean on that cut shot. Obviously, he you know, the
best golfer golfer in the world and doesn't necessarily need
to hit a lot of draws. But you know, if
you're giving me somewhat of a better price on the field,
there are golfers that I do like, But you know,
with that being said, it is a very top heavy field.
We got a lot of open type qualifiers that are
getting into this field. So maybe to take a look
at getting multiple golfers up top, because we're probably not
going to get you know, a shot higher than fifty
or sixty to one winning the Open Championship.
Speaker 2: Agree completely.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Now, more than ever, the creams rising to the
top of the East tournament. So that's why I just
said that Chris got her up. When the sky is opening, whatever,
Sean Alvarez tell her what we have up at wager talk.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So, like I alluded to, it's an exciting summer
for horse players. Sarahtoga started last week. Friday is opening
day at del Mar and right now you can get
thirty days of horse racing downloads for ninety nine dollars
and depending on what day of the week that you
purchased that that goes down to as little as three
dollars a card, So a significant discount if you're a
horse player, if you like Saratoga, if you like del Mar,
definitely do that as opposed to buying the day in
and day in, day out, day in and day out package.
But like I alluded to, it's an exciting time, especially
for horse players. And you know, like you and I
with with the Open Championship this weekend.
Speaker 5: Love it, Love it.
Speaker 1: Sean Alvarez, great, great segment, Man three really really solid props.
Speaker 2: Great right up, good research, so appreciate that.
Speaker 5: Sean.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna do the RAMS season win total.
I have a UFC pack that is already up. We
talked about how we were coming off of a losing streak,
so last week we just gathered our minds together and said,
what are we gonna do?
Speaker 2: We went super low volume.
Speaker 5: What happened.
Speaker 1: We went seven and three for plus six and a
half units. Perfect week. That is my idea of a
perfect week, low volume, best of the best, and you
end up with a plus seven plus six and a
half unit week on ten plays hit seventy percent and
UFC was great.
Speaker 2: Reads were spot on. In UFC.
Speaker 1: There are two plays that are absolute must adds to
your portfolio. That's why I put them up so early.
So get those in the lines are moving a little bit,
They're still absolutely more than playable, but grab that pack up.
We continue to be number one handicapper for MMA and UFC.
And don't forget, we got PFL this week, so we'll
be talking a little bit about that that main card.
So but UFC play that those are up right now.
Speaker 2: Wager talk dot com.
Speaker 1: All right, let's bring in Dan and we're gonna talk
the Los Angeles Rams season wing total at nine and
a half. I guess Dan, the first question is, like,
does this basically come down to Matthew Stafford?
Speaker 2: Like is he still is he still healthy?
Speaker 1: Like like it was it was rough there at the
end of the season, you know what I mean?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it was.
Speaker 7: It was rough, but you could argue and many people
said that if it weren't for the snowstorm, this would
have been the team who was in the Super Bowl
when they when they faced off against the Eagles.
Speaker 5: You know, they were some.
Speaker 7: Good defensive plays away from moving on and knocking off
the eventual Super Bowl champion. So, yeah, he was banged up,
but they were still producing. And Andy, I look at
this Rams team, it's easy to simplify it and just say, well,
what do we get out of Matt Stafford?
Speaker 5: How much does he have left in the tank?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 7: For me, I just look at this team, and every
year the Rams seem to be the team who over
exceeds expectation. For out of the last five years they've
gone over their season win total because heading into the year,
it's the same discussion, well, how much does he have
people figured out? Boy genius McVeigh. It's always the same
talking points against about this Rams team, and they just
continue to say, Hey, your your market expectations, go shove them.
We're just going to go over and be a player.
I'm really high on this team. I know people are
going to point to Cooper Cup being gone. When was
the last time Cooper Cup played like a full season
and wasn't as impactful as he was? You know, since
you've seen the emergence of Pooka and Akua, who I
think is a top five wide receiver in the NFL
right now. What he's able to do volume wise, what
he's able to do highlight wise, the way that he
runs routes, the way that he's just a grinder, I'm
super high on him. So pairing him with a guy
in DeVante Adams, who you know is aged. Obviously he's
not the player that he once was, but there were
flashes when he was there with the Jets of the
downfield threat that he still can be. And Stafford doesn't
matter if he has one leg or not. This guy
will just grip it and rip it and and you
know the opportunities will be there for this wide receiving corps.
They didn't really lose much, you know, you say, you
say they lose Cup, but outside of that, they basically
have replaced anyone who they who they lost in their
in their offseason moves here. So I think the moves
clearly showed they believe that they're going to be all in.
Nine and a half feels too low to me. There's
actually some tens out there, so I would grab this
nine and a half now. I like the over quite
a bit. I'm really high on this RAMS team. I
think they're going to be a player for the Super Bowl. Andy,
So if your bank roll allows for it, one bet
that I sprinkled in on one of the few futures
that I did, I took him to win the NFC
at eight to one.
Speaker 5: I'm very high on this RAMS team.
Speaker 7: I think they're they're they're gonna be a player for
the Super Bowl barring any crazy injuries. But even so,
when injuries pop up for this team for whatever reason,
every year, four out of the last five, they're going
oh over your season win total.
Speaker 5: If it ain't broke, don't fix it in this instance
for me.
Speaker 4: Andy.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, we're doing a we're gonna we're gonna
use this as the contest. All right, here's what you
guys do.
Speaker 1: Right after the show in the comment section below, tell
us over under on the Rams and we are randomly
pick one person. We're gonna randomly pick one person to
get a three day Flex pass, So post your your
opinion on the Rams over under. Also post your wager
talk user name, so you gotta have two components. Your
opinion on the Rams over under nine and a half
wins your wager talk user name, and we're just randomly
gonna pick a winner for three free day.
Speaker 5: That seems pretty easy, Andy.
Speaker 7: All you have to do is comment below and you
can win three three days of Flex passes for free.
That that's pretty damn easy, So do it. And while
you're down there, hit the like button and subscribe. We're
not too far away from having you know, two hundred
and ten thousand subscribers, so keep those keep those bells
getting hit. But drop that comment below with your user
name and win like the three winners who did.
Speaker 1: Andy, All right, let me go through the schedule here
real quick. Yeah, you know, offseason moves not much that
they had another center, They had a couple d linemen,
but Devonte Adams to replace Cooper Cup. Can I make
the case that? And I like Cooper Cup, and I
make the case is.
Speaker 2: One of the most overewed players. Do you know He's
only got two seasons over a thousand yards.
Speaker 5: But it's just it's just he would, he would.
Speaker 7: The reason why everybody loved Cooper Cup is because everyone
who plays fantasy plays in a PPR league, and you
would get twenty catches from him.
Speaker 5: You know what I mean.
Speaker 7: So that's why people love Cooper Cup as far as
the yards out, but I'm with you.
Speaker 5: Wasn't anything that major eyes pop out of your head.
Speaker 1: No, I'm with you on the over And here's why
I love their schedule. Uh, Texans at Titans at Eagles, Colts,
forty nine Ers at Ravens, Jags overseas bye week, Saints
at forty nine Ers, Seahawks, Bucks at Panthers at Cardinals,
Lions at Seahawks at Falcons Cardinals. There are a lot
of winnable games on the schedule.
Speaker 5: And here's another.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I hate jump in there too, but with that schedule.
This RAMS team is also top three in rest differential.
So you talked about those favorable teams that they're going
to be facing, they also have really favorable spots where
they'll be coming into the game with added rest, added
time for Mcvada prep for those games. So go on,
I just wanted to add that in there. Tied up
with the schedule is another reason why I think this
nine and a half is crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this division is wide open.
Speaker 1: I love your future bet on there, and I am
down on the forty nine Ers and the Seahawks, So
those are winnable games. I also love that they're two
hardest games like Eagles and Ravens.
Speaker 2: I like that they're on the road that you're not
eating up.
Speaker 1: You're not eating up your home games against these juggernuts
that can come in and beat you.
Speaker 2: I mean they're home.
Speaker 1: Games or Texans, that's winnable, forty nine Ers winnable, the
Jags is overseas, but then you get the Saints at home,
the Seahawks, the Bucks. You play the Panthers, but you're
at Panthers, that's winnable. And then you get Lions at home.
You get Cardinals at home. I'm with you on the over.
I'm a Sean mcvabil. I've just watched them year in
and year out, single handedly win them two games, just
two games. Brilliant coaching gets them and they know each other.
That defense has got one more year experience. They were
very young last year, so this is an easy over
for me. So Dan and I are in agreement on
the Rams over nine and a half. Yeah, Backyard Chronicles
says Rams eleven and eleven and five. Well, lety need
be eleven and six, eleven and six, but I'm.
Speaker 5: Making twelve and five. Let's make them twelve and five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think eleven wins is possible.
Speaker 4: I agree.
Speaker 7: That's team running down the schedule and taking in the
rest differential. I landed at it being eleven win season
for the Rams. So that's that's why we talk about.
Speaker 5: Oh, you know, this is a lean. This is how
I feel.
Speaker 7: This is one that I personally bet with my own money,
and I would also for what it's worth.
Speaker 5: There's tens out there.
Speaker 7: I would stick with the nine and a half because
the half point is worth you know, a good fifty
cents for you. I would rather lay alone little bit
more juice to have m I bet be a winner
than be a push, So I like that over nine
and a half. And again, in case you're just joining us,
I also sprinkled on this team to win the NFC
at eight to one, and I think there's some better
prices out there on that as well. So rams Andy,
we're gonna be rams fans this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this and the Falcons have been my favorite overs so.
Speaker 2: Far the great teams that we've covered.
Speaker 1: So all right, guys, leave us to a comment below
right after the show's over in the comment section below,
So Backyard Chronicles put that down on the comment section
right after the show's over. That way, you get a
chance to win free three days worth of flex passes.
Speaker 2: So thanks very much for joining us.
Speaker 4: Guys.
Speaker 1: I know there's not a ton going on this week,
but there are plenty of opportunities to make money and
we're going to guide you through that, so make sure
you join us tomorrow. We'll go over the home run derby,
We'll keep talking UFC, We'll keep showing you how to
make money in golf, we will keep showing you how
to make money in PFL. So join us tomorrow at
the same time, good luck on your bets night, enjoy
the home Run derby and take care