Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, guys. Welcome into puck Time on wager Talk TV.
Andrew and Carmine with you to break down all three
games on this small slate in the NHL, and we
can't wait to find some winners, sides, totals, props. We're
gonna talk about it all here on the show full transparency.
For me, we are off a loss with the big
play yesterday. I keep making fun of this Maple Leafs team,
but I lost on them yesterday. Maybe I should listen
to myself and not take this Maple Leafs team anymore.
But the player props continue to do very well. Yesterday
we gave out McDavid to score a goal to clients,
and I also gave out a same game parlay. Yes
you heard it right, the same game parlay, a combo
with two players to get a point Lindell and Brad Marshawn. Well,
it only took about a minute and a half for
those two guys to get on the board. So we're
in bounce back mode as far as the best bet
is concerned. But it still was a decent day at
week Talk. Looking to bounce back though and keep things going.
I'll tell you what, guys, I said it last night
on my show, The pre Scout, and I'll say it
again before I throw it to car Mine and bring
him in. Of course, I think these these slates are
the ones you can really be sneaky with and make
money on, Karm. You know, we were talking about it
before the show together, like people talk about Thursdays and
Saturdays and Tuesdays is the busiest days in the NHL.
But you know you and I both bet the NFL, Karm.
But doesn't mean we have to forget about NHL on Sundays.
You know, I had one winner and one play last Sunday,
and I think those are the days that it's going
to really add up when you can really kind of
all of a sudden realize, Okay, maybe if I saw
if I like last last year, I wasn't playing much
hockey on Sundays because football was consuming my time. This year,
I'm not letting that happen to me again here, Karm.
So with all that being said, what I'm trying to
say here is that Wednesday sometimes presents a really good slate,
and today is not too bad of a slate here, Karl.
Speaker 2: No, it's it's a really good slate and hello to
everyone in chat. Three games obviously Devils in the Wild,
Sabers and Red Wings Johnny Detroit's Red Wings versus. I
claim no ownership in this team, but the Buffalo Sabers
I claim a lot of heartbreak over the years because
this team pretty much has nothing go aheading for them,
and then we're gonna end up with a battle in Canada,
the Calgary Flames and the Montreal Canadians. The upstart Montreal Canadians.
If you looked at these teams forms maybe like three
or four years ago, is the other way around. It
was the Calgary Flames that were doing well and Montreal struggling.
And then we have a pod play the pod play
caches yesterday with the Washington Capitals winning for to one
in that game, so we cash that puck line. I
normally don't do a lot of puck lines with these
pod plays, or even this early in the season, because
I still think we're only at the six or seven
game mark. Eys uh, and teams are still figuring out
their offenses. The goalies are coming up to speed. We've
seen some pretty bad goalies. Case in point, I took
a couple overs yesterday in the first period. Both of
them cashed. One of them was the was the San
Jose New York Islanders game. I believe the New York
Islanders fired even though they won the game, they fired
their their goaltending coach or replaced their goaltending coach after
the game. You know, they got a good one in Soroken.
But it's a good thing that the Islanders can score
goals because they definitely are allowing some as well too.
If you guys have any questions, drop them in the channel,
because with these three games, our thoughts on these three
games are probably going to go pretty quickly. On those
they're Andrews gonna have his same game Parlay Mangia Pani.
He must have eating too much bread because that guy
did not get a point yesterday. But the podcash is
I'm looking forward to six and sixty on Friday. It
is a segment that I love to do each and
every year. And I always tell you guys when I
do the six and sixty that we'll try and do
a swag giveaway and you guys can pick how close
you think I'll get to getting all six right, including
all six right, and it doesn't bother me if you say, Carma,
I think you're going zero to six. It's just an opinion, guys,
that you guys have. It doesn't bother me one way
or another. While I'm waiting for Andrew to get back
from grabbing his coffee or what have you, a quick
shout out to one of our viewers right now, Howdy Howdy,
I know you. You mentioned in there that you're going
through chemo. I want to wish you all the best
man in your in your recovery. Yes, cancer does absolutely suck.
It took my parents away from me, It's taken some
really good friends away from me, and recently obviously Dave
Sherripan in Vegas a good friend as well too, So
I wish you all the best man. I've got a
lot of good stories of people ending up on the
right side of beating it, so I wish you all
the best of luck. Howdie. You can do it, man.
And then in a week's time or two weeks time,
when I get some swag, I will send you a
puck time ball cap getting those worked on as we speak.
So all the best to you, my friend. Guys, like
I said, drop a comment in the comments section below.
Oh there he is. Man, that must have been one
hell of.
Speaker 1: A connect all time you had there, and then the
whole time.
Speaker 2: You could have chimed in. I'm like, I almost used
up all of the words that I had. It's funny
because watching the Vlad and the World series kicks off
on Friday, of course, watching like the Vlad interviews because
he always has the translator, right, but he you know
my thought process, Andrew, and I'm gonna go to baseball
real quick, guys, because we have some time. It was
come on, man, you're in the country, whether it's Canada
or whether it's the US, and I get it, you're
playing for a sports team. But learn the language, you
know what I mean? And I think about my parents
who immigrated to Canada in sixty five and my dad
learned to speak very good English. My mom learned to
speak English and it was great, you know what I mean.
It was broken English at times. But Vladdie has gotten
so much better. Man, watching the emotion of his interview
with Hazel, May God God blessed that guy. Man, he
has picked up the English language and he's gone with it.
And we got him for fourteen more years here in can.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the contracts even.
Speaker 2: That contract. It is like who's the baseball player? You
guys know the guys. Who's the guy for the Mets?
Is it Bania? I think it's Bania where they have
a Banilla dey Andrew where he's still collecting a million
dollars a year in salary because they signed him to
like did they deferred his his contract like fifty years
where he gets a million dollars a year. So God
bless guys like that that take one for the team,
like Conor McDavid did for the Edmonton Oilers a two
year contract below what he's worth in order to keep
some cap space for the Edmonton Oilers. And God bless
the Edmonton Oilers for not ruining my five dollars customer
Appreciation Day play yesterday. Two goals in the first like
ninety seconds of the third period to make it to
too they blew that lead, Andrew, and I was like, oh,
you gotta be efing kidding me. But we found a
way to win. With that said, Andrew, I want to
hear your thoughts on the Devils and the Wild New
Jersey minus one thirty nine off that win in Toronto
last night. Second went back to back for them, the
Minnesota Wild plus one fourteen total sits here at five
and a half.
Speaker 1: Carm, I think that this might be a collective effort
for you and I as far as this is concerned,
because I think you and I have similar thoughts to
this one. And before I start, I want to give
a shout out to Chris Auto once again. Chris has
all kinds of first period totals or first period puck
lines and all that good stuff. He came on the
pre scout with me last week, and he's always active
on social media and tagging us in all kinds of
great information. If you guys aren't following him at PSU Auto,
he's a great follow And well, he talked Karm about
this particular matchup or this particular situation in where you
have a second half of a back to back and
the team that's on the second half of back to
back is coming off a win. And I think that
it's very foolish for people to think that back to
backs don't matter early on in the season, because I
really do think that they do. When you look at
back to backs and you really look at kind of
I think that the idea behind the fatigue and the
exhaustion for these teams. People think that because it's early
in the season, it won't really impact teams very much.
But sometimes it can be the opposite, where a team
has not settled into their routine yet, they haven't settled
into the system yet. It's a long eighty two game season,
so maybe they're just not used to the season quite yet.
All that stuff gets in the mix. But we always
talk about a team feeling satisfied, a team feeling fired up.
And if you look through the schedule right now, for
this New Jersey Devil's team, no matter how we try
and phrase it, this Devil's team is looking good. But
when you want to talk about a team feeling satisfied,
when you want to talk about a team that should
be entering a game feeling a little bit proud of themselves,
it should be this particular matchup. In this one now,
the Devils are scoring goals. So I wouldn't talk anybody
off the over five and a half here, second half
of back to back. You're getting backup goaltenders Nico Dawes
in net and Minnesota. As far as they're concerned, they
should be about as hungry as it gets. Karm not
only have they not been scoring, but they've also been
losing on the road, and they are coming off a
decent performance. But this is a team towards this the
last game of their road trip, where they're not going
to be taking their foot off the gas pedal. Sometimes
we see a team towards the end of a road trip,
and if it's been a good road trip, we say, hey, look,
end of a road trip, we're not going to see
a full effort out of them. I think we're going
to get a good effort out of Minnesota, So I
like the full game over we look towards Minnesota in
the first period, A lot of people are going to
tell you, hey, look, the Devils are playing really well
right now, what's the deal with this short price? And
I think the price tells you all you need to
know about this game here, Karen. And so far we've
seen team second half of back to back, coming off
a win, the team visiting and fresh and not off
the back to back has hit seventy percent of the
time early on, and it's whether it's first period or
full game, they've done extremely well. And you have a
stat and you've been talking about this new Jersey team
I think for the last two years about how they've
done on home ice, and of course New Jersey not
just second half of back to back for them, but
also they were in Toronto last night.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they were, and apparently they played extremely well in
beating the Leafs. I'm going to get to that stat
later on because it's going to be part of the pod,
but I will say this and listen, I get it.
Second of a back to back for New Jersey. The
a lower line than some might expect. Nico Dawes comes
up from Utica the AHL to start this one. He
started six times last year. He was three and one
last year in six starts or appearances, one point six
goals against average and a nine to thirty nine save percentage.
Those are very strong numbers for a small sample size
with this Devil's team. But you know I talk about
sometimes is the fact that you have to look at
some of these teams and have they turned the corner
on some a bad stretch of games for them, and
the Minnesota Wild definitely had a bad stretch of four
or five games where they allowed something like twenty goals
and lost four or five games. Their last two games,
they have played extremely well defensively, obviously they get they
lose one in OT two to one. Their next game,
another very good game by this Minnesota team. I think
they're one of those teams that have turned the corner,
and when they're playing at their best, they definitely can
go into New Jersey and beat the Devils. As part
of a full game line, I think I would look
at the wildier plus one fourteen and hope that the
fact that their last two games have been very good
games for them, that they've shored up or figured out
what the problems were defensively and want to finish off
this road trip extremely strong. Taking plus money with the
Minnesota Wild is not a bad play here at all, Andrew.
For me, plus one fourteen, I wish it was a
little higher, to be honest with you, and who knows,
maybe we do get some money. I'm just having to look.
I wrote down the numbers earlier, but I'm seeing plus
one fourteen fanatics, which their lines are always kind of weird.
Plus one twenty there, I don't see anything better than
better than that. Even Dkay that tends to overprice the
favorites has it at one thirty five and plus one fourteen,
So You're not gonna get much better across the board,
So we'll see what happens here. But I think the Wild,
for me Andrew, I think the Wild have to be
the play tonight, despite how well New Jersey's playing. We
said the same thing about the Carolina Hurricanes, unbeaten, playing
extremely well going into Vegas, and the Vegas Golden Knights
dealt them their first loss of the season. So off
that three to one win against the Rangers and that
two to one loss in ot to Philadelphia, I think
the team has turned the corner. I hope they've turned
the corner, and if they have, I'm going to cash
a plus one fourteen ticket on them tonight.
Speaker 1: I just don't really think this is a spot, Carm
where we're grasping, by any means, searching for an underdog.
That this is a really skilled team and this is
a team. One thing I will mention if we want
to be contrarians about our play here, Karm, is that
I talked about it actually a couple of games ago
when the Wild played against the Capitals. This Wild team
is still struggling to score five on five, but their
power play numbers are out of this world. If they
can get a couple five on five opportunities and capitalize
on those. Their power play has been unbelievable. I think
they just have to look at a lot more and
try and you know, create more chances and be almost
less maybe picky five on five, But regardless, this is
gonna be a good prop game. This is gonna be
a good prop game. So I'm gonna be on this one.
I think ericson eck shots, it's gonna be a good
one to look at. Boldy just keeps on participating, keeps
on putting points on the board. He's out there every
single night. I think, whether it's an assist or a goal,
Boldie's been really good. See carve, I find with the
proper world these days in the NHL, you got to
find a way to bet the guys that are not
the top guys like Caril Caprizov. It's hard to even
bet him to score a goal. It's hard to bet
him to get an assist because his odds are so poor.
You know, the odds are so bad for those top guys.
But with the secondary options you can get it just done.
There with a second half of back to back, do
you do you agree with me? Though, Karen, I mean
NKO Dawes is no slouch, But do you agree that
the over is a lean as well? Like I feel
like nine times out of ten when I play Wild
games and you look at natural stat trek or money
puck or the NHL game cards any anywhere, will tell
you the advanced data leans towards low scoring games for
the Wild. But maybe this game kind of sets up
for more of an exciting Wild game.
Speaker 2: You would think, I don't want to go with the
like sort of opposite of the narrative that that you know,
Minnesota Wild games stay under or tend to stand to
the total they went through that spurred andrew where they
didn't look good defensively, But as I mentioned, you know,
and watching their two games because I watched the Philadelphia
Minnesota game because I had Philadelphia as a client play,
and I watched a majority of the Rangers game because
they just wanted to see how that game played out
and whether the Rangers were getting any better or still
unlucky with puck luck. And the Wild played a second
consecutive a very good defensive game. Their backchecking was good,
cycling the puck in the O zone, getting it out
of their own zone. They did the job that they
were supposed to do, and they're playing well. And when
a team starts, it's like I said, have they turned
the corner? Or was that just a mirage of two
games in which you can say they You know, sure,
they beat the New York Rangers, who can't score any
goals right now, and they lost to Philadelphia, but the
game went to ot tied at one. I tend to
believe that a team like the Wild, who are a
team we expect to make the playoffs this season and
you're gonna have a good season, are going to go
through spurts like every team does, in which they struggle
for a pack of games four or five, maybe six games,
but once they start to put it together, they get
on a bit of a run. I want to jump
on a team when they're starting the run, and not
in the middle of a run. I echo that and
I repeat it all the time. I want to get
on a team when they're starting a run, and maybe
the while they're starting their their run. Here we'll see
if that works out. It's going to be very tough
against the Devil's team that's playing some very good hockey,
but maybe this is the spot for them second of
a back to back. The line does seem kind of
fishy to me. I would have thought the Devil's the
way they're playing right now at home, probably in the
minus one fifty range. I don't think it could go
any higher than that because then I think everyone would
jump in on the wild So books are books have
priced this pretty pretty good as far as it goes
in as far as the total goes, I would lean
under okay game just the fact that I get it.
It's Nico Dawes, but he's coming up from, like I said,
from Utica, and it's not like you're bringing up kind
of like what the Sabers are doing in the next
game we're going to discuss. You're bringing up an unproven
guy from an AHL team that hasn't been there before.
He's coming up Nico Dawes, and he's playing on home ice,
where you would think the Devil's play a little bit
better through sixty minutes, maybe not twenty, but we'll discuss
that at the end of the show as well too.
Speaking of goalies, Andrew, it looks like it's going to
be Colton Ellis for the Sabers tonight, being called up
Sabers minus one O eight the Red Wings plus or
sorry minus one twelve. The total sits here at six.
Ellis is up. Obviously, there are injuries to Peca Lukenin
who isn't ready to play as of yet. Lines have
been taking a bulk andrew of the start, if not
all of them, and they have a back to back
coming up with the Leafs do the Buffalo Sabers, So
you sort of have to get somebody else in there.
What are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Carl, I always do this, you know, I'm a
little bit proud of all the guys that come out
of my area. He's not exactly from where I'm from,
but he's from where my old man is from who
you met around that same area. And I'm wishing Cold
and ellis all the best. He's been in the AHL
for a while. He's had some opportunities in the NHL,
but mostly been a backup. So I'm really hoping the
best for him tonight. Hopefully your Buffalo Sabers can play
well in front of him. I actually had a friend
of mine that was in Montreal got a press pass
the other day to go up there. He works for
a radio station locally here and got to go do
an interview with him and cover him. And the guy
didn't even play like he was covering this player, but
he didn't even play in the game. He was a
back He was a backup that night. But the guy
knew actually rove up there and still went to cover
the game. So it's a huge deal for this guy.
But also it's a huge deal for the Buffalo Sabers
to have a goalie in that that's not named Alex Lyon. Now,
last night on my show, I was looking at the
numbers for the XG and the expected goals against and
all that stuff, And you know, one thing that we
cannot deny is that Alex Lyon was putting on a
clinic for the Buffalo Sabers. There's no denying it. There's
no doubt about it. He was saving them a lot.
He was saving goals he probably shouldn't have, saving shots
he probably shouldn't have. But I think this Buffalo Sabers
team is producing more offense than people are aware of
as well. And when I look at some of the data,
when I look at some of these numbers here, whether
it's natural statureck, whether it's money, Puck. I think that
this team deserves a bit more respect, which I know
might sound kind of funny here, Krm that we're talking
about respect when it comes to your Buffalo Sabers. But
I think that this is a team that is going
to surprise some people with the talent level that they have.
You know, this is a team that if you go overall,
you look at some of the lists here, they're starting
to create more chances over the last couple of games.
And if you look at on the season expected goals four,
expected goals for all over five on five situations or
all situations including the power plays and penalty kills, you've
got Detroit right now the ranks twenty fifth in the
league and expected goals four. So it's not like they're
really creating a ton of chances here, guys and car
I'm going to be the one that will continue to
say it that I don't trust the defense and I
don't trust the goaltending of this Red Wings team. You
sure it's turned around a little bit as of late. Sure,
this Red Wings team, after they lost against the Montreal Canadians,
they've looked pretty damn good. There's no denying it, But
I say this every day on the show, and I'm
going to say it again. When games look weird as
far as the prices can, like this one does. It's
weird for a reason. You got to backup goaltender, a
guy that's barely played many games at all for the
Buffalo Sabers. They're playing at home. I get it. We
got a practical pick em price in this one, and
you got the Red Wings that beat the Oilers, beat
the Lightning, beat the Panthers, beat the Leafs. What am
I missing here? Brother? What am I missing? Why? Why
aren't the Red Wings minus one thirty in this game?
What am I missing? So I'm gonna take the Buffalo
Sabers to execute more to take advantage of maybe an
overachieving Red Wings team. And maybe it's that theory, karm
that when you have a young goaltender in net, you
do everything you can to soccer style park the bus
and finally play a good defensive game. So I'm gonna
sprinkle on the Buffalo Sabers. Yesterday there was a line
that didn't make any sense to me, guys, and that
was the Pittsburgh Penguins against the Vancouver can And well,
that worked out pretty well. We'll see how it goes today, Karen,
but we're taking the Buffalo Sabers to get the job done.
Speaker 2: I'm dying here, Andrew. I'm dying here not because of
your comments, but TJ. Salvador. I love to see him
in the chatties. I can see CARV in front of
the TV watching the game with a big bowl of
Katcho and Pepe rooting for the over. Yeah, you know,
I actually feel like making Katcho Pepe tonight for those
guys that don't know that that is a pasta dish.
The pepe is obviously the pepper part of it. But Andrew, Yeah,
Colton ellis from born In. Let's see here, Let's see
if I can pronounce this correctly. Why Cocoma, Nova, Scotia.
You're October fifth, two thousand, So the guy's only twenty
five years old. But when you look at a goalie
coming up from the h all, you kind of want
to look at not just his current numbers, but like
even like the last couple of years of how he's
fared there, and you just want to make sure that
there's positive numbers there that might might might translate into
some early success in the NHL. And you look at
them for the Springfield Thunderbirds twenty twenty four twenty twenty
five season twenty two, fourteen and three with a nine
point two two or nine point nine to two save percentage
and a two sixty three goals against average for an
AHL goalie coming up, Andrew, those are actually pretty good
numbers for them. So we'll see what happens. Uh. I'm
not sure in the total, just because I expect the
Savers to start scoring at some point. I'm throwing the
Ottawa game right out of the window. Scoring eight goals
against the Senators. I think they're more of a team
right now that you can look at. You know, they're
probably going to score two or three, maybe four goals.
So it's tough for me to want to take the
over in this one. And to your point of the
Detroit Wederings being all these good teams, how many times, guys,
and you all know it, year in a year out, Andrew,
you say it about the Toronto maple Leafs, and I'm
not harping. I'm just using them as an example here
and not beating down on them. They beat teams like
Tampa Bay, Florida. Colorado Vegas and then they lose to
San Jose, Arizona, Anaheim. You get up for some teams
and then you think you can go through the motions
against some teams. The Detroit Rivings don't want to go
through the motions tonight against the Buffalo Sabers in Buffalo.
They're gonna end up on the wrong side of a result.
It's again a fishy line in these ones that the
Wings are only minus one twelve on the road. And
if you've been to a Sabers game, and I've been
to quite a few, the attendance seems to be more
in favor of the away team, like it's a home
game for the Leaps. When they're in Buffalo, it's a
home game for the Leaps. When I went for a
Buffalo Montreal game, it was Montreal throughout the arena. Saber
season ticket holders sell their premium games online, which are
snapped up by visiting fans and at a little extra
and they use it to pay off their season tickets
by selling, you know, six to eight premium games, so
you get a lot of You'll see a lot of
Detroit Red Wings jerseys in the stands tonight for this one.
But with that said, Andrew, I'm not touching the total,
but I am gonna go with the Cacho Pepe play
of the night to the Buffalo Sabers. Hopefully I don't
choke on my pasta with this one.
Speaker 1: At Karmen's looking like one of those days. It's just
me and you on the show, of course, talking to
the live chat, talking to the audience, but we're both
on the same page. So I hope that you and
I are coming back on the show tomorrow morning. We're
both in a good mood and we're ready to attack
the Thursday board together because sounds like we both like
a a lot of the same stuff for this slate
and I'm looking forward to it, karm So it's a
pretty good, pretty good day for the NHL. And remind
you guys as well, all of our plays at wagertalk
dot com karm is WT dot buzz slash CB I
am WT dot buzz slash a M and we've got
best bets, we've got free plays, we've got props. And
the big thing guys at wager Talk that carm and
I especially are going to make sure that you guys
are following with us is the grading system and the
percentage of the bankroll. And that's why Karma is doing
the bankroll to show you guys the long term ability
to grow a bankroll. But it's gonna be rare for
me to have props that are one or two percent.
This year, I've decided a lot of my props are
point two five units point five units. So yesterday, you know,
we earned about a unit with player props, right, and
so when I release a five percent, that's the best
bet that we're going to release, you know, three percent,
two percent. It's important when you guys sign up that
you're managing your bankroll and you're getting things going right now.
This is a deal that I currently still have going
right now in NHL twenty five for twenty five percent
off a thirty day an AHL pass and KR I
was gonna save this till the end. But we had
a question here and from pocket surprise here said question,
if I buy a monthly package, could I make my
money back to keep buying the package? I know it
takes more than once. Would this be a reasonable expectation? Well,
I think the first thing that we would say, and Carm,
you've been doing this a long time as well, you
jump in with anything. I would say. The first thing
is that I know people probably think that we're trying
to get people on board. I'm gonna tell you guys this,
It's more beneficial for us if people buy every single day,
you guys are saving buying long term, and so the
best thing to do, as far as buying the monthly package,
could I make my money back to keep buying the package.
That is a good move because if you're buying every
single day, one singular four percent best bet is twenty
five bucks. A five percent play is thirty five bucks.
You know, use that promo code I have NHL twenty five.
You're gonna take twenty five percent off a full thirty day.
You're gonna get all of my plays in one. So
it's most certainly a reasonable expectation, especially if we're on
a good run, if we're managing the bank roll properly
and we're finding some winners for you, that's the best
way to go about it. Now. The thing is, some
people want a three day, some people want a seven day.
But Pocket Surprise three eight zero carm he's asking this,
and I think it's it's, of course a reasonable expectation.
To make your money back. I think the longer term
that you buy. Of course, we don't know their unit
structure and what they're betting per game, so it's hard
for us to answer it.
Speaker 2: But I and that's why I want yeah, and that's
where I want to jump in. I'm unlikely. Hopefully the
Detroit Office isn't watching this next thirty second or CFO
isn't watching right now. Rick, if you're watching, just please
hit the mute button. It all depends. It all depends
on your unit size, and I do not want to
know your unit size. Pun intended there, but if you know,
if you're a guy who's betting ten, fifteen, twenty dollars
a game, then buying a monthly package may not be
the best way for you to go. Wager Talk does
have things in place where, you know, we have our
five dollars Tuesdays, which makes it affordable for someone to
buy it. If you're someone who's betting a larger amount,
then yes, I would say, you know, buy a thirty
day three or seven. I think thirty days. You can
really judge someone by it. And part of the five
dollars Tuesdays is putting up promos where you can get
some great deals from them, or message the office. Just
don't spam them, but message the office and ask them
if there's any deals going out as a first time
customer or what have you. I think that's sort of
the most important thing because at the end of the day,
you're factoring the cost of the package into your overall
ROI as well too. And if a guy is winning,
he's going to make you money, and then you decide
whether you want to hop on for another month and
moving forward. So and then you know he's not on
the show. But I talked to him this morning, like
the press and I will I'm going to give the
guy kudos because the press the last few years has
been like absolutely lights out with his NHL does extremely well.
He's off to a you know, a not so great
start in October and I've been there the last couple
of October's for me, I've hated it. But sometimes it's
good to get a handicapper who's proven long term when
they are slumping, because as I mentioned before, the law
of large numbers, you know that if a guy is
hitting up here or hitting way down here, it's going
to sometimes end up here in the positives, but not
eighty percent but more like sixty percent, and not thirty percent,
but more like sixty percent. So with that said, Prez
doesn't need me to be his sales guy for him.
He really doesn't. I'm just mentioning that. But Andrew, you
put in the hard work each and every day, especially
with the prop plays and what have you. And I
think that's one of the toughest things is people are
going to get that extra value from your prop plays
and even though you're releasing it at a quarter or
half of one percent, you're not going for the guys
that sports books will overprice because they know people are like, oh,
Edmonton's playing Vancouver, Okay, Conor McDavid to score theon dry
side of the score over shots on goal. The books
cook the price, everything cook there because they know that
people who don't do the homework are going to go
for those top guys because they haven't heard of the
guy on the third line who may have gone six
of seven games over his shot total of two and
a half.
Speaker 1: Andrew, you do.
Speaker 2: So that's that's that's where the package has tremendous value.
Is when someone is doing all the homework for you
to think about a high school. You mean if you
sort of floated through high school and university because you
stole the answers from someone else or paid someone else
for it, you got there anyways. I'm like the old
man yelling at the clouds.
Speaker 1: Where's Mo to Mo here? Thanks for the Mos?
Speaker 2: Mo is in my hockey my hockey picks at the moment,
I'm eight and two my last ten plays. Who well,
I'm hanging with Mo. I'm keeping Mo in the backyard
shed with a couple of padlocks, and he's staying there
until I have a huge lead on everybody else for
another the number one spot.
Speaker 1: Farmers going out for beers with Mo tonight to try
and keep things, keep things going, keep things light, all right, Carm.
So yeah, everybody's dapping you up for the bankroll, play man.
Huge hit by you on the Capital's big win. That
was definitely the most dominant win on the board yesterday, Carm.
We got one game left here and I'm going to
keep it short and simple. The Flames have beat have
defeated I want to be proper grammar here. They've defeated
the Montreal Canadians four straight games. Hasn't looked great. This
is a young team, the Montreal Canadians that just had
a successful home stand, only lost one game, all right,
but it's their first time going out on the road
for a big old road swing. They got a back
to back, as you used to call it, the Alberta
double double. There the Tim Horton's advertisement. As you sip
your coffee, they're playing the Oilers on Thursday. So very
interesting number on this one. People think that it should
be almost a bigger number on the Montreal Canadians. I'm
gonna leave it to you for your thoughts on that one.
I do find it a little bit tricky, but I'm
gonna give out a player prop and this is actually
one that I'm looking at here, Carl, when I've got this,
and hold on, give me a second, give me a second.
Hold that thought there. It is Cole Kawfield. Cole Cawfield.
He seems to do well on the road. You know.
I think that for some of these younger teams, there's
gonna be certain players, like I mentioned Demidov, the new
young player for the Canadians. He's probably gonna do better
at home, you know, getting the last change. He's a
younger player playing in front of the fans and things
like that. But some of the more experienced guys are
gonna have to step up, especially on the road. And
these are the average the past shot attempt numbers for
Cole Cawfield in his last several road games ten three
eight seven, twelve eight ten five three. And now the
funny thing is, if you look at it, he's only
barely gone over two and a half with three three
four three three five five three three four. So what
I'm gonna do here, We're gonna take the over two
and a half shots on goal. Best price I found
was a FanDuel minus one forty. But we gotta sprinkle.
We gotta sprinkle a little bit here. Carm on the
four plus shots for Cole Kawfield at plus one thirty five.
Look at these shot attempt numbers. You can't argue with
the numbers here. And I think this guy is gonna
have a lot more to ice time, I'd say, and
a lot more to do with these road games than
he would. I think the second line and third line
are gonna be productive at home, but the top line
you really need to show up when you're playing at home.
All right, That's it. Dan will kill me if I
take that banner on away anymore. So I gotta take
that back and put you back on the screen here,
carm My Halves. Can they keep rolling or it is
a bad spot for them tonight? Is it gonna be
tough for them? What do you think?
Speaker 2: Well, here's what I think, and Drew, because you asked me,
so I'm going to tell you. And I know you're
a Montreal fan, and I know you and don buster
seem to think I always make fun of your Montreal Canadians.
I will say this just because I think Calgary is
a dumpster fire at the moment, and I think they're
going to have an absolutely miserable season. And it's not
because a lot was expected of them, which means that
you would think that a team makes a coaching change,
which they're not going to do. A team brings in players.
They're not going to do that either. I think they
understand the fact, and I think their fan base understands
the fact that they're not making the playoffs this year.
So let's hope they finish in the one of the
bottom three spots and have a shot at winning the
draft lottery and getting McKenna this season. We're only seven
games in. But speaking of which, seven games in and
the Montreal Canadians have yet to trail after twenty minutes
and three pushes in seven games. The Montreal Canadians are
playing at least early on this season with just a
lot of energy and playing extremely well. I don't want
to go against the stating which a team has never
trailed in the first period and say take Calgary to
come out and play strong because you're just hoping something happens,
as opposed to at least using some data to know
that it's likely not going to happen. The Montrekly Canadians
are playing well. You got to lay about a buck
twenty on them instead of the dollar twenty seven, and
you could end up with a push if it's tied
after twenty minutes. But I think the Montreal Canadians first
period is likely the player for me. Four wins and
three pushes thus far andrew this season in the opening
twenty minutes for Montreal and bringing up Real quickly. And
as far as on the road, the Montreal Canadians three
games on the road, they've been tied after twenty and
two of them and have led in one. So quick
start by the Montreal Canadians. They get the first period lead.
I call it a night, go to sleep, watch some Netflix,
and don't have to watch the second and third periods
of these two teams.
Speaker 1: I can always tell Karen when you're like, I'll toss
on some Netflix. I want to watch something out. Karm
is coming at us for the first period play. Steve says,
this game has scared me away. I did Slavkovsky point.
You know, Slas's been pretty good lately. You know, this
is one thing about him is he's not the most
flashy guy, but he's gonna be playing with those top
guys all the time. So I'm very curious. Karen. As
a fan, you know, I'll always give you my fan perspective,
but you know I do follow the team. I am
very curious. I'm gonna learn a lot about this team
over the next three or four games, because they have
impressed me with how they've played at home. Now a
lot is going to have to be said about how
they play on the road. You know, it's one thing
to look good at home. It's one thing to have
a good start to the season. And luckily for them,
like some of the people I watched because I watch
a lot of podcasts and some of the habs guys
that I've watched, they're saying there's a real opportunity right
now for the Montreal Canadians here because look at the
slow start the Tampa Bay's head, look at the slow
start Florida's head, look at the slow start that the
mayple Leiefs have had. Like, if you're Detroit and if
you're Montreal, right now, you need to have your foot
on the gas. The Ottawa Senators just lost again. The
Mayple Leafs just lost again. So Carl, I'm sure you're
with me on that one, man, Like this is a
time where this team can maybe create some separation because
last year they were so bad in October November. And
I know I'm a fan, but I'm sure you agree
with me here. I mean, if they can have a
good road trip here, it'll make a world of a
difference for them, you know, as far as the season's concerned,
because not only are they playing well, but some other
teams in the division are playing bad.
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, I had no idea a Montreal fan prior
to this show. So I know you guys want to
make the playoffs. I get it, but with like I said,
this is kind of a weird card tonight, and I'm
on a nice little run. As I mentioned, so i
have one client play up which is also the pod play,
and it's listed at wager talk as a free play
as well too, So I'm not gonna have any other
plays tonight. I'm not gonna have a card that's up
for sale, So you're gonna get my two client play
for free on the show, and I'll be working on
my Thursday card and likely get that one up overnight
because I pretty much know all the goaltending situations heading
into to the Thursday card, which tomorrow it's Brian Leonard
and the pres coming on to break down a game.
So you guys are gonna get five games tomorrow. Andrew,
I know you have the same game partly, so I'll
do the pod and then you can do the same parlay.
I believe you have one.
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, you're ready to go.
Speaker 2: But here we go. As far as the pod, guys,
we cashed with Washington last Hold on time, Hold on,
this is my segment. Man, get your ugly mug out
of there. Okay, anyways, let me start this over in
case we have to clip it later, but starting bank roll,
we are up two hundred and eighteen dollars. We're continuing
with unless it's a prop play, like a player prop play,
it is always going to be a two hundred dollars
flat bet. So this is two hundred dollars on the
Minnesota Wild first period plus one oh seven, so it's
two to win two hundred and fourteen. As I mentioned previously,
the news the Devil's at home in opening twenty minutes
aren't very strong. Last year, nine wins, thirteen times, they trailed,
nineteen times. They nineteen times they were tied at the
end of twenty minutes minus thirteen point three five units.
That's the fifth worst in the NHL last season, or
minus nineteen point nine three ROI. This season two home games,
they've trailed after twenty once and they've been tied after twenty.
So we are going to do Minnesota first period plus
one oh seven, see if they can catch the Devils
on the second of a back to back a little
leg weary in the opening twenty minutes. So that's your play.
That's your pod play, guys.
Speaker 1: Andrew carm I like it, man, I like it. I
like that spot. For them. I think they're going to
be very, very hungry right now to get it going.
I'll be super quick with this so you can stay
on the screen with me here, Karen. With this one,
I've got my same game parlay guys, and I'll tell
you what. These aren't going to hit every day. These
aren't going to hit every single day, that's for sure.
But with some of the numbers that we're getting here,
we're hoping that we can produce some good no numbers
and hit a couple of these each week. This one
here is plus four sixty two plus four sixty two.
Joel ericson Eck for the Minnesota Wild, a very very
hungry team right now, catching a Devil's team second half
of a back to back. Ericson Eck does very well
against the New Jersey Devils in head to head in
recent history, and he is on the top line, so
he'll do very well. He's been shuffled around, but either way,
he's in the top six no matter what. Zach Benson,
he's a top line guy and someone that people should
get to know for the Buffalo Sabers because he's been
playing very very well. Coming off a game with a
ton of scoring chances of his own. But he's also
a good playmaker. They're at home and I think it's
a good spot for them against the Wings and Cole Coffield.
We talked about it. His road numbers are very, very
good as far as his shots are concerned. His shot
attempts are higher on the road than they are at home.
He really takes it upon himself to shoot the pockets.
On plus four sixty two, I picked one player prop
from each game today, karm. We need one prop from
each game to get the job done and cash a ticket,
and hopefully we can do so. So uh krm a
couple questions we want to answer it. Then we really
got to get out of here. But this one here
from Danny. Look, Danny is asking us, you know the
point for me, because I talked about it, how I'm
gonna be doing a half unit right for my player props.
He's asking, how is it worth your time? Half A
Unit's not worth your time. All I'm gonna say is this,
It's all about growth. It's about building your bankroll. But
one of the main reasons why I'm doing that, Danny,
is because more often than not, each night I'm gonna
have a handful of props that I like. So instead
of me doing one prop at three percent, I'm gonna
be giving out a handful of props at point five percent.
So I'm relying on my clients to make sure you
follow that structure with me so that we can maintain
that structure, maintain the bankroll. And there is a lot
of variance with player props, but I trust my research
because I know what happens. If I give out one
player prop for three percent, then the other three props
that I liked as well are gonna hit, and then
maybe that one doesn't hit. So I'm gonna trust my
process give out three or four props each night, and karma,
I think that will lead me to success. Fortune not
says how refreshing is it? The NHL number one pick
in consecutive drafts are remarkable. Young Man. Schaeffer and McKennon
will be such impressive standard bears for the league for
a long time. He seems great. Car Ethan mentioned this
to me on X I didn't get back to him.
I felt bad. Got to get back to him today
about this, but I know we have to go. It's
been a long show. Wait youer talk today is coming
up here. Would love to hear a situational factor that
plays into it. Well, there's one that you're talking about
with your pod play today, which is taking a team
first period, that's playing a team second half of back
to back. Is there anything else you wanted to mention
for Ethan, anything you can think off the top of
your head for a situational plays. Yeah.
Speaker 2: You know, all we can really do this early in
the season is look at some of the some of
the stats from last year and see are they applicable
because some aren't and some are because teams change during
the offseason, players leave, players come in, defensemen are the
defensemen are short up. So as far as some of
these props you have to you have or trends you
have to give, you know, the NHL a month a
month and a half for you to be using more
relevant data. And it's why I always say tread lightly
in the first few weeks of the season. You have
to because you're using last year's data to try and
predict this year's results. With that said, unless you're watching
every single game, which I kind of do and and
Andrew kind of does. So if you're not watching it,
you're relying on box scores. So it's just putting in
the time and watching trends developed. You know, the one
with the Vegas Golden Knights, as I mentioned, you know
are now what three and oh in three home games
or four and o to the first period over. This
is something that was relevant last year. Six and o
their first six games at home to the first period over,
ten and two their first twelve games at home to
the over, and then eventually that died. It's kind of
like the large numbers. I keep mentioning it. You know,
I'm repeating myself, but it is. You allow something to
happen until you get priced out of it or not.
One guy mentioned he waited way too long to take
the Vegas Nights because the over in the first period
and it got juiced to one seventy. It was one
thirty earlier in the day, one thirty five. If you
wait until the end of the day and you don't
play these games early because you want to see how
you did in the first couple of games, you're likely
going to take a bad price later on in the evening,
just before game time because books adjust those prices. Don't
take a bad price. One seventy is not one thirty five.
You will not beat a book betting one seventy with
regularity when one was available.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, we missed a couple of the questions,
but make sure tomorrow you tune in, or Friday tune in.
It'll be a smaller site on Friday as well. We'll
make sure to get to them. But look, three games today.
Obviously we're both in great moods, looking forward to a
really fun night. Hopefully you guys can make some money
with us. Let's cash these tickets, Let's cash the same
game parlay, Let's cash the bankroll play of the day,
karm and you guys can find all of us at
wagertalk dot com and buy all of us. I meant
myself in Carmine. That will do it for today. Thanks
for watching, guys, We'll see you tomorrow.