Speaker 1: Waiting.
Speaker 2: You're live.
Speaker 3: Welcome to Wage to Talk Today, the gold standard of
sports betting shows, where we talked the talk and walk
the walk. It's Wednesday. Bullseason officially rolling around. We got
college football, college hoops, NBA, Ralph Michael's gonna join us.
We're gonna talk the old Dominion USF and Vanderbilt Memphis.
Drew Martin's gonna join us cover the sixty eight Ventures Bowl.
I'm so glad they didn't go with the numbers on
each side of sixty eight. I'm glad they picked sixty eight.
He's also gonna talk Creighton and Xavier and Ross Benjamin's
gonna join us. We're gonna calvs. Bowls, Grizzlies, Timberwolves. In
the NBA. We got lots of action, lots of opportunities.
We're gonna do a quick little steam report. There's not much,
but did anybody in the check get cam cooked yesterday?
Anybody suffer the cam cook treatment like we did?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 3: Star running back doesn't opt out before the game. He
opts out like at the end of warm ups, like
nobody had the slightest clue and all suddeny comes out
and clothes Welcome to Bowl season. Everybody incredible stuff. All right,
let's go through a little bit of a steam report.
There is not much to report here. I'll start with
the NBA. A little action on the over in Cleveland, Chicago,
not too much, a touch of action on the under
in Minnesota and Memphis. But we're still waiting on a
couple of big name questionables in that one, John Morant,
Anthony Edwards, so we're gonna have to wait on that one.
We moved to college basketball, a little bit of money
on Xavier, but we'll get the official breakdown on that
play a little bit later. In college basketball, Old Dominion
opened up his favorite. James Madison is now the favorite
in that game. So there's a lot of money coming
in on that. You see, Santa Barbara, that line is
up to five. I see five and a half. So
if you want to bet that one, you want to
bet at asap. If you want to bet on Green Bay,
just wait. We do have a lot of money coming
in on Elon. You're Richmond open up minus five. They've
gobbled up the fives, of fours, of threes, and now
I'm even seeing two and a half's on there. So
that's gonna be most of the steam report than that,
I don't see a whole lot of big moves. A
little bit on UAB, a little bit on Arkansas State,
and a little bit on Marquette. Other than that, most
of the lines are holding. Oh one more Santa Clara.
Later tonight Santa Clara opened up is eight and a half.
That line has moved up to eleven and a half.
So that's shot through ten all the way up to
eleven and a half. So if you like Santa Clara,
get on that one sooner rather than later. I can
take a look at hockey. Little bit of action on
Utah against Detroit, and we've got a lot of money
coming in on Carolina. So that's gonna be your steam report.
Let's bring in Ralph Michaels. Ralph, Happy Wednesday, hope everything's
going good for you. We're gonna talk this old dominion
USF game, the cure Bowl, Old Dominion cure our ills here, Ralph,
give us the if the symptom is a declining bank,
or give us the cure for that. How do we
break down this game minus two and a half over
under fifty two and a half.
Speaker 4: There's a lot of opt outs in the balls and
we have to make sure we're aware of those and
people hitting the transfer portal. And I would say this
Bowl game is as affected as any with the opt outs.
It's not the number of opt outs, it's the two players,
one on each team that have opted out. You look
at Brown for USF. USF was an elite offense this year.
Byron Brown, a fourth year player, third year starter, was
number one in the NCAA in total offense three hundred
and forty seven point two points per game eight point
zero seven yards per play. Colton Joseph people may not
know him from Old Dominion. He was number eight in
total offense in the country at three hundred and two
point six yards per game and even better yards per
play eight point one yards per play. ODU a very
slow paced team. They were averaging. They were about number
sixty on the season and plays per game, but when
they played a team with their winning record and they
only played three of them, they absolutely slowed it down.
They were number one hundred and twenty eight in plays
per game. They will have a young quarterback in Quinn Heinkol.
It's not Heineke. I know it sounds the same, and
people are gonna say it is, but it's not. He's
played five games this year, Andy, he's made fifteen passes
and he's had twenty rushes. Last year he started one game.
It was in the bowl game. He had twelve passes
and he ran the ball nineteen times for two hundred
and six yards. So with both replacement quarterbacks, clearly I
feel Old Dominion is in a better place. USF was
a very fast paced team, number thirty six in plays
per game, But when you're missing the experience of a
guy that almost threw for eight tho yards for your
program and over sixty passing touchdowns, you know that the
offense is going to have to vanilla down work much
slower and get him in rhythm. On the USF side,
we have both teams with nine wins. That actually makes
an exciting game because someone's going to reach that ten
win season, which is always a staple for your program.
Differences here. Old Dominion has their entire coaching staff back,
and for USF, they of course lost their head coach
to Auburn, and he basically took the entire offensive coaching
staff with him. In fact, they were so hurting on
the offensive side. Quarterback Brown for USF will help the
coaches coach the young quarterback today. So he is not playing,
but he is staying with the program and being part
of this bowl game where Colton Joseph for Old Dominion
already in the transfer porter and gone. I will say this,
I think it's different in the bowl games. If you
have a coach that leaves you to go to an
SEC team, you can't really feel hurt. He built this
program and he made them good enough where he got
that job. And also, if you're an offensive player for USF,
you've got to be ecstatic to get the OC from
Ohio State. If you're a quarterback, if you're a receiver,
if you're anyone on the offense, you're looking forward to
this game. The game being in Orlando probably an edge
to Old Dominion. They get to go to a Florida
Bowl while USF is just traveling a mile an hour
and a half down I four to play in Orlando.
I want to give you three bowl systems that apply
to this game. And again bowl systems are unique, especially
now at the transfer portal. But I just want you
to think about this. Teams that are off back to
back wins and back to back covers like USF they
have a positive momentum going into a bowl game, well,
those teams are only seventy seven and ninety five forty
five percent against the spread in bowl games. Teams like
USF off back to back games scoring thirty five points
or more with the layoff in a bowl game, they're
only forty five and seventy eight thirty six point six
percent against the spread. And teams like Old Dominion that
have nine or more wins they're a dog of one
and a half or more and they won their last
game are thirty three and nineteen sixty three point five percent.
Coaching edge Old Dominion quarterback edge Old Dominion, USF has
a massive special team's edge. A lot of people don't
put enough credit in special teams, specially in the balls.
I wouldn't be surprised if USF does score a special
team's touchdown here. But I'm gonna go with this, Andy,
I'm gonna go with first half under twenty six or
twenty six and a half. Old Dominion is going to
be slow with their running quarterback cannot play anywhere near
the pace they have. They have two strong running backs.
They're going to lean on them. The reason I also
want to use. The first half is in bowl games,
when the team is losing, we start seeing flea flickers
and double reverses and running back passes and all those things.
In the second half, I think with the two young quarterbacks,
they try to get the pace established, they try to
establish the O line. So I think there's positive value.
I'll tell you what. I'll split this best bet here
half a unit first quarter under ten and a half,
half a unit first half under twenty six or twenty
six and a half in this evening's bowl game.
Speaker 3: I like it. I like it. Ralph, I asked the chat,
share something positive that's happened. I need a little pick
me up this morning. So Indie jar Head says he's
heading out to his first Rose Bowl. There we go.
There we go, AWM taking a hot date to the
Golden Knights game tonight. There we go. I need some
more positivity in the chain here, Guys, tell me something
good that's happening to you. Ralph's got a new place
down in Florida. That's awesome. You were telling me about
it before, so congratulations to that. So let's share some
wins here in the chat. Been a bad morning for me,
so let's go to two teams. Hopefully it's not bad
days for them, Vanderbilt and Memphis going to college basketball here.
So we got Vandy minus nine and a half on
the Odds logic screen. This line has moved towards Vandy,
but we still have the over under holding strong at
one fifty eight and a half. What do we do
with Vanderbilt Memphis?
Speaker 4: All right, everyone in the chat room, raise your hand
if you thought Vanderbilt football would get ten wins and
Vanderbilt basketball would start ten to zero. We talked about
Indiana and not being a power in the Big Ten,
Andy and getting their first Big Ten championship. My god,
what a story for being a commodore sports fan out
And I will say this, I'm not gonna put a
lot of stock into it, but I truly feel when
a school like Vanderbilt or Indiana has one program that
all a sudden rises up, it helps all the other
athletic programs. More people start going to the games, you
start getting better coverage, people are more interested, more involved.
It helps recruiting. So does Vanderbilt football basketball thing really
play off each other. We'll see if the Hoosiers do
the same thing with football this year. I mean with
hoops this year, which I think they're well. I like
this Vanderbilt team. And why do I like it? It's
because this Yes, they're ten and zero. They have not
played a very tough schedule, middle of the road. You know,
they're about one seventy five in the Ken Palm ratings,
but they have been tested. They went to UCF on
the road, they win by eight. They got a VCU
who Ken Palm has ranked as number forty five. They
beat him in a neutral setting. They beat Saint Mary's,
who ken Palm has ranked number thirty two. They beat
Saint Mary's by twenty five points. Then they took care
of SMU at home by nineteen. Last two Wednesdays ago.
In fact, they did have a warm up game. They
had ten days off. They had a warm up game
against Central Arkansas. I am not concerned. They only beat
Central Arkansas by eleven.
Speaker 5: Remember, now we.
Speaker 4: Get unique layoffs depending on when the schools have their finals.
Most teams schedule that entire week off so kids don't
have to play, can practice less, take care of their grades.
So that first game back against a weak opponent is
the situation.
Speaker 5: I like to fade.
Speaker 4: Now they're going back on the road. Vanderbilt is a
team that has no superstars. They have no one that's
gonna sniff the NBA, but they have one of the
most experienced teams in all the country. When you look
at their D one experience, their average player has two
point six five years of experience, that is number seven
in the country. They also have four players. All five
players have started every game this year. The only person
not a senior was a freshman last year that played
thirty three games for them. So a very very experienced team.
Memphis only four and five, but they've played the number
ten schedule. They're seven and two against the spread in
that timeframe. The one thing I don't like about Memphis
is they've got a lot of new guys and Penny
Hardway is not happy. He plays a lot of players.
The bench minutes number twelve in the country, which means
he uses as bench as much as any He's had
a lot of different starting lineups. In fact, when I
look down, Memphis has two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten.
They've had twelve players that have started a game this
year and four players that have started that combined ten
games are banged up and we're not sure if they're
going to see action here. I do like this Vanderbilt team.
In fact, I did make this a two percent client
play Memphis on offense number two fifty nine on defense
number one fifty one. They did play at Louisville. They
got ran out of the gate, losing by twenty four.
On Saturday, they have a game at Mississippi State on deck,
an SEC team they play very often, so a very
very difficult scheduling spot. Baylor, Louisville, Vanderbilt and miss State
on deck. That type of pressure for teams that aren't
playing well, for teams that don't have continuity that keep
changing their lineups. Vanderbilt gets it done. Vanderbilt runs them
out in the second half. They win eighty five to seventy.
Speaker 3: O calling the correct score. All right, if Ralph gets
this one right, everyone gets free. I was kidding, love
the correct score, Ralph. That was pretty good. I'll allow
Rob tried to make it in the chat. Now he's
walking it back and it's it's quite funny. Shout out
to you, Rob, Ralph. We got some really good, not
really good. We got some incredible promos coming up, So
tell us about a couple of these promos that we
have going on. I know, we get the Blitz that's
coming up on Thursday. Surely we're in the heat of
the college bowl season, so like the Blitz is going
to be one of the most important shows that we're
going to have. So tell us about some of these promos,
and tell us about the Blitz.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Ross, of course, Ross Powers and I will be
on tomorrow two o'clock on Tuesday, we'll be breaking down
the championships and the rest of those bowl games.
Speaker 5: So stay tuned.
Speaker 4: Probably the number one special that jumps out to me
this week, you get ten days for the price of seven.
That's not getting a free three day all access pass,
which is sixty nine dollars by itself. Now, if you're
not insisted in trying for a long term package, I
do want to mention I have my first college basketball
five percent of the season. I won three of my
last four college basketball regular season five percent last year.
And if you want to try that five percent for
half price, how about this first CBB five It's my
first college basketball five percent. So if you go in
purchase my five percent, use the code first FI RST
CBB and the number five, no spaces. You'll get my
five percent first five percent college basketball play this evening
for just seventeen dollars and fifty cents. So either way,
the ten day all access is even a better deal.
If you just want to try that one play jump
on board, you'll be glad you did.
Speaker 5: Andy.
Speaker 4: I do want to say one more thing. I may
be going up to Cleveland to visit my son for Christmas,
so I will not be here next week. I do
want to thank each and every wageer talk viewer the
happiest of holidays. Be safe, have a wonderful time, and
I'll be talking to you in two weeks.
Speaker 3: From Florida, the Cleveland Ralph Michaels everyone. Interesting trip there.
Thank you so much, Ralph. Great work from everyone there
at Ralph. So yeah, Ralph's got a new place and
that's awesome. We're trying to get him to do his
spot from his balcony overlooking this golf course in this lake.
It's beautiful, beautiful, So all right, yeah, full disclosure. I'll
tell you when I win and tell you when I lose.
It's not been a good few days. We've been crushing
it since late October and regression hit us pretty hard
the last four or five days. So good lesson here.
What happens when you're not running very good. You look
and see if you're just regressing back to the mean,
if you've hit a cold streak and you pull back
a little bit. So we're gonna be pulling back on
some of these plays. I think I only have one
play in for clients today outside of our darts plays
that darts kind of stand on its own. It's part
of a bigger package and bigger formula. But I've only
got one NHL play. So losing streaks are fine part
of the business. It's always frustrating when it happens. But yeah,
the last few days just have not been good. Some
of the sports we've been running really really good in
we've taken a step back. So it okay. We weather
the storm. We make sure we don't bury everybody, We
make sure we don't really crush our bankrolls. But it's
been a very very frustrating last couple of days. We
were trying to do a big sprint towards the end
of twenty twenty five, but that's turned into a jog.
Someone say a trip and fall, so let's bring in
Drew Martin, a man that never trips and falls. Drew,
how are you man? Happy Wednesday?
Speaker 1: Andy, I'm doing good man. Busy time of year, you know,
college basketball, college football, the NFL. For me, it's a
lot to keep up with, but it's a great time
to be a sports better. We got college bowl season going,
always fun to talk about, which I know we're getting into.
And just a little something on what you're talking about,
you know, I call it bounce back mode, And unfortunately
I appreciate your intro, Andy, but I do trip and
fall in this business. I think all of us do.
And to tell you the truth, last week I did.
I think we even talked about it on the hit
here on this show, and sure enough over the weekend,
bounce back got the five dollars winner yesterday. So I
think I'm feeling to bounce back for you as well. Man,
So I think I think you got bounced back written
all over and Andy.
Speaker 3: I know we do. I said, like I've always said,
like it's almost scary when you're running over like in
the seventy percentile of like wins over a certain period
of time, because you know, it's just not mathematically possible
to keep it going. So we try and share, hey
we're winning a little bit too high, or hey we're
down a little bit. So we'll tell you when we're
winning and when we're losing, and when it's a great
time to jump in and get our plays. So we're
not going to suggest to get to purchase anything that
we're running ice cold in or that's not working.
Speaker 1: Sure, Andy, I just wanted to chime in something you
said I thought was very insightful. You kind of led
to limit the number of plays. I do the same
thing when I'm not seeing it. Well, it's just a
play a night, maybe two plays a night, and until
you start to find it and find some of these
angles them on your side. That's a great thing to
kind of to limit the plays. If you're not winning,
and it's.
Speaker 3: The best time to pay per trade, it's the best
time to actually write out some of the plays that
you thought you liked. See if they were good reads,
see if they weren't good reads. It's a perfect time
to practice that.
Speaker 5: So I like that.
Speaker 3: All right, let's move to college football the sixty eight
Ventures Bawl. I said, I'm glad it's sixty eight because
if it was six seven, we'd get NonStop celebrations. If
it was six', nine we'd get NonStop jokes about. That
so it's a sixty eight ventures Bull louisiana And. DELAWARE
i don't. Know it seems like the books are not
real sure what to do with this. Game WHENEVER i
see a minus, three that's the books kind of, going,
eh not really sure over under sixty two, Though so
this is a big. Number how do you break this game?
Speaker 1: Down that's a great point in terms of the odds.
Makers minus, Three you know you'd usually throw out in college,
football maybe fifty, five fifty. Six but sure, enough both
of these offense can, score and both of the quarterbacks
are pretty. GOOD i would actually go to this one
with The Blue. Hens they let up fifty two points
to Wake forest just two weeks, ago AND i Think
louisiana is kind of the stronger roster top to. Bottom,
Handy that's the REASON i would go with The Raging.
Cajuns and actually you can find it two and a
half if you shop. Around SO i was looking towards the.
Over but we get a little bit of rain wind
in the forecast In, Mobile, alabama and that's what's keeping
me off of the, over even THOUGH i would not
be surprised at all if this game touches into the.
Seventies but like we just saw last, night by the,
way this is back to back CONFERENCE USA Versus Sun Belt,
conference so you can kind of take what you saw
last night and use it to some degree into night's.
Game but AGAIN i go WITH i think ull is
gonna be able to score. Here Lunch winfield their quarterback
three games already this season with more than one hundred yards.
RUSHING i think they're gonna put up points, here thirty
plus points in their last four. Games if you need something,
Tonight it's not something that made the client card for, Me,
andy BUT i would shop around for this Raging caguns minus.
Speaker 5: Two and a.
Speaker 1: HALF i still like it at three to some. Degree
BUT i Like louisiana, here AND i just, lastly the
reason it's not on the client. CARD i could See
delaware The Blue. Hens this is their First bowl. Game
you know they just stepped up from THE fcs. Level
you know they're going to be. Motivated so it's a
good one, tonight fun one to. Watch but if you
need SOMETHING i would push you Towards louisiana The Ragon.
Cajuns that's the short.
Speaker 3: Favorite moving on to college, basketball we Got creighton Versus.
Xavier this one's on, paper should be a pretty good game.
Here xavier a little bit of a shorter. Favorite. Here
i'm seeing minus three and a half here over UNDER
i believe is one fifty two and a. Half what
are we doing With creighton Versus xavier?
Speaker 1: Tonight, Yes Sinta, Center, Cincinnati. Ohio Fox sports, won by the,
way nationally televised game and not Baseball Blue, jays but
The Creighton Blue. Jays you know What i've noticed Here,
andy they play a slow paced brand of. Basketball they've
lost their last two games To nebraska And Kansas. State
and when you kind of link it up here going
up Against. Xavier and by the, way Where i'm going
with this is towards the. Under you can get it
at one fifty two and a. Half SOMETHING i like
to look at in college basketball a little bit earlier
in the season is when teams start in conference. Play
this is the First Big East conference game for both
of these. TEAMS i kind of think defense is at the,
Forefront SO i believe that both of these two head
coaches gonna, be you, know kind of preaching that going
into this, game creating a little bit banged up at
the guard position might and going up against a good
defense In. Xavier this is An xavier team that held
their last, Opponent Missouri, state to just fifty seven. Points
now they're up Against, creighton slow, paced a Better creton
team than That Missouri state. Team but, STILL i don't
think we get a whole lot of possession. Here, again
one fifty two and a half widely available right. NOW
i don't think we get into the one. FIFTIES i
Like creighton And xavier six Thirty eastern little happy hours
special Here Fox sports. ONE i like it to the
Under Andy.
Speaker 3: GOD i could use a good happy. Hour, although SO
i live in this Weird. Indiana it's a weird. State
for the longest, time you couldn't buy alcohol on A,
sunday like in a, rut but you could go to
buy a. Restaurant you couldn't buy it in a, Start so
finally they changed. That, well happy hours were, illegal so
then they made happy hours legal and nobody embraced. Them
they're like from two to two thirty twenty five cents
off bud lights or like like like bars and restaurants
around here just completely didn't get happy. Hour it's one
of the most it's one of the most confusing. THINGS
i should go around and document all the just horrific
happy hours that we have around. Here but what a
what a missed opportunity in my.
Speaker 1: State so, yeah that's the state Of. Indiana i'll tell You.
ANDY i, MEAN i used to work in the restaurant,
industry AND i think happy hours are a great business.
Idea you get people in there five right after, work
five to, six thirty five to, seven and sure, enough
you give them a little liquid, courage they kind of
forget about the, clock and then you start ordering the
regular price. DRINKS i think it's a great way to
get people.
Speaker 3: In there's no. DOWNSIDE a lot of them are people
that wouldn't normally come. There it gets extra revenue for
your servers and your, bartenders and you get to show
your stuff to people that normally maybe hadn't come in on.
There they have a good, drink have a good. Dinner
maybe That saturday they're, like, oh let's go back to.
That but there's literally no downside to a happy. HOUR
i can't believe places are out. Here don't embrace, this so,
well let's Embrace Drew. Martin he's bounced back is in full.
Effect so what do you have of for everyone at Wager.
Speaker 1: Talk, yeah ACTUALLY i heard you And ralph. TALKING i
got my first five percent in college basketball of the
entire season going. TONIGHT i got three plays off of
the five Dollars tuesday, winner so you can check that.
Out of, course it's a discounted. Package three for one
there wagertalk Dot Com experts. Page Drew martin feel real
good about. It so, yeah five percent max limit going.
Tonight college.
Speaker 3: Basketball all, right let's roll With Drew. Martin thank you very, Much.
Drew good luck on that big bet. Tonight thank you
To Drew, martin always spicing up Our. Wednesday we're gonna
do we gonna do a graphic here the. Post we're
gonna do a POST Nba cup stats. HERE i gotta
tell you that game last night was absolutely. INCREDIBLE i
those who haven't liked THE nba in the, PAST i get.
It THE nba completely deserves, it but they've just been
knocking it out of the. Park the teams were super.
Motivated it was high level. Basketball it was. Intense it
was really really. Good so all, right let's uh so
let's go over some POST Nba cup. Again it's the
spread and over under. Leaders so let's go over some
of these records of the teams that have been covering
MACHINES nba cover the closing. Line the top three are
The knicks at eighteen and. Eight probably not a big surprise.
There The pelicans covering the closing line is insane at
seventeen to. Ten this goes to show, everyone it's all
there's value in the bad. Teams and then The, lakers
who've been a pleasant surprise are sixteen to. Nine teams
that have not been covering. Well sometimes the bad teams
are still just. Bad The wizards eight and. Sixteen, meanwhile
The kings And clippers coming in at eight and eighteen,
each no surprise. There those teams have been massive. Disappointments
we'll go over the overs the closing. Line the top
three at the first part of the. Season you got
The nuggets going well over their total seventeen and. Eight
lakers absolutely no surprise. There their offense has been amazing
and their defense has been absolutely. Atrocious so they're seventeen
and Eight. Trailblazers this is another team very high in,
pace don't have the defense now that all their guards are.
Hurt SO i would almost expect more of that from The.
Trailblazers and the top three unders teams The grizzlies nine and,
seventeen My Indiana pacers nine and, seventeen and The hornets
nine and. Seventeen so those are your top covering the,
spread not covering the, spread overs and. Unders so all,
right we got some specials here at Wager talk if
you all are, interested these are on the specials. Page
we've still had The Weekend warrior pass if you're interested in.
That we have ten. Days Ralph michaels just mentioned that
ten days for less than ten dollars per. Day The
Weekend warrior comes in at forty nine. Dollars this ten
Days Expert picks for just ninety nine. Dollars again it's
a free sixty nine dollars. Pass and then we still
have the buy three days all, access get one, free
so just one a few days of. Plays you can
jump all over. That and we also have our Full
Court All access pass only forty nine. Dollars it gets
you three full days OF Nba College. Basketball what are
you using on someone Like Drew. Martin he's got a
five percent best bet that goes off the. Night, well
i's spend thirty five on one play when you can
get forty nine for three. Days so all, Right, Yes
Josh hart was very very happy last. NIGHT i. WAS i.
Was that was a lot of. Fun, so, oh thank
you you good. Addie keep your, Head, YEAH I i am. Fine,
OH i, listen we're not panicking after two bad. Days
we're not. Panicking but it's part of my job to
monitor it and make sure we don't hemorrhage out a
ton of. Units so you, know part of the job
is managing the losses because we know we're going to have.
Them SO i DON'T i don't want to, panic BUT
i want to keep my eye on, it AND i
want to make sure i'm I'm i'm aware of what's
going on with people bankrolls because this affects my bankroll as.
Well so IF i feel the, PAIN i know All
access clients do as. Well that's. All that's, all all, Right,
Ross let's bring In ross The, Boss Benjamin. Ross always
good to see. YOU i, SAID i need to pick
me up on This, wednesday and here you, are my.
Friend it's always good to see. You how are.
Speaker 2: You i'm here For, Andy it's great and it's always
a pleasure to see you as, well my.
Speaker 5: Friend happy.
Speaker 2: Holidays and you know the good thing about wagertalk dot
com and the experts there is the. Transparency and not
only do we tell you if we're losing or we
tell you if we're, winning but if you want to,
check as soon as our games go, off you go
to our page and you can see exactly what we
had for. Tonight so everything is on the up and.
Up and having said, That, Andy i've had a tough
five days after an extremely hot, run And i'm with.
YOU i am very confident in my ability not to
extend losing too. Long, Okay but by the same, TOKEN
i Think drew brought it up about seeing things. Clearly
sometimes the picture gets a little cloudy when we have
a bad week or bad few, days and then we
have some bad luck along the, way LIKE i had
an under to thirty seven and a half yesterday or
not the day before that in THE, nba and the
game ends up going over time AND i lose WHERE
i would have had the under in regulation those kind
Of but when you're going, good those breaks go for you, too,
Right so that is the true. Nature so people will
tell me all the bad breaks go against, me it's
because you remember those and you forget about the ones
you win that you had no right.
Speaker 3: Winning, yes it's it's so. True when you're running, cold
that's when you lose by. Half that's when you lose
by the. Hook when you're running, hot that's when you
win all those ones by the. Hook so we got
TWO nba GAMES i want to go. OVER i showed
those graphics about some of the top three, teams covering
not covering.
Speaker 5: Bo CAN i comment on? That you're?
Speaker 2: Real of, COURSE i know we're limited for, time but
those season long numbers sometimes can be. Deceiving AND i
say that because just like what HAVE i done for you?
Lately Because i'll tell people how Well i've been doing
over the last seven, months and if they joined me
in the last four, days they're saying you're full of.
Baloney the same thing applies to looking at THESE nba,
numbers or in any, sport when you're looking at a
season long, number as we approach the halfway pointer, BEYOND
i look at more of what the trend or tendencies
of teams are in recent. Games and sometimes you go
back five, games times you go back ten, games and
you mentioned. Pace that's a pretty good example that some
teams may have started the year playing at a very,
paced fast pace and found, that you, know they're personnel
that doesn't work for, them and they've had more success
slowing it. Down so it's something to just share with
the audience HOW i approach things. Anyway you, know the
season long numbers don't, lie, right but when you come
to handicapping games every, DAY i want to know what's
going on.
Speaker 5: RECENTLY i.
Speaker 3: Agree and also you look at some of these numbers
and it's, like, well are The nuggets going to go
over at that percentage for the rest of the. Season probably,
Not and the books know, this and the books are
going to make adjustments so they.
Speaker 2: Keep going up into, totals, RIGHT i mean, absolutely The
chicago The chicago game In cleveland game tonight is going
to be a perfect example of two teams that really
started out it's high scoring. Teams, Well cleveland still, is
but things have, changed especially through The Chicago.
Speaker 3: Bulls, well let's go right into it because you're. Right
This Cleveland. CAVALIERS i love them coming into the regular.
SEASON i have a future on their over win, totals
and it looks. Disastrous mobley's, Hurt Jared allen is, regressed
it's All Donovan, mitchell and yet they're still minus five
and a half point. Favorite This bulls. Team, boy they
started out, great oh? Giddy oh and, no, boy they've regressed.
Too over runners too forty two and a. Half what's
your breakdown on these games that ever guessed since a hot?
Speaker 5: Start thank You?
Speaker 2: Andy if, indeed, yeah The bulls did start out. HOT
i believe they're one and nine straight up in one
seven and one against the spread in their last nine
games or ten, games excuse, me, Whatever but in any,
Event i'm going to look at the total, here which
is two.
Speaker 5: Forty two and a.
Speaker 2: Half and you know these this matchup is being bet
over at a high rate since the opening, number and
it's escalated to two forty two and a half some
places even two forty. Three and, again if you look
at the season long numbers of both, teams it makes
a lot of sense to go over the total.
Speaker 5: Even at this higher.
Speaker 2: Number, however recently The Chicago bulls have played five to
the under and their last five at. Home those five
home games had an average total of two thirty eight
point three and was only two hundred and twenty three
point four points per. Game and offensively over their last
five home, games The bulls were so good offensively to
start the, year over their last five at, home averaging
less than one hundred and five points per, game forty
one point one percent from the field and twenty eight
point three percent from beyond the three point. Line so
they're really, struggling and especially so at home in recent.
Outings and The bulls also their last three games in
which they had a total of two forty or, greater
which is high even BY nba, standards they've gone under
the total in all three and there's only been two
hundred and twenty point three point score per game in those.
Contests so they've played on the under recently more than
people would see if you look at their overall. Numbers,
now The Cleveland cavaliers this, year whenever they play eight
team like The Chicago, bulls who have a win percentage
of two fifty to four, hundred they sort of play
down to the competition and it shows in the total
because their average total in those five games two thirty
six point seven and only two hundred and twenty six
points combined scored per, Game and The cavs also are
three to zero to the under in their last three
when there's been a total of between two forty and
two forty five and a half in that sweet, spot
they've gone under and all three of those games and
only two hundred and twenty three point seven points scored
per Game cleveland their last five, offensively they have not
shot the ball well at, all forty two point six
percent from the, field twenty seven point five percent from
beyond a three point. Line some of that has to
do with, injuries some of it just has to do
with poor. Offense In, chicago over their last five, games
they're only averaging a ted over one hundred and six
points per, game forty four percent shooting in a miserable
twenty nine point seven percent from beyond a three point.
Line when you get two ice cold three point shooting
teams in recent, games like both of these, teams you
have to factor that, in especially when you're looking at
a total this. High And, cleveland by the, way they're
number eight in defensive efficiency and number eight in field
goal percentage.
Speaker 5: Defense so in spite of the.
Speaker 2: Fact that they're vastly underachieving As Andy well knows this,
season they continue to play pretty good. DEFENSE i like
this game to go under the total of two forty
two and a.
Speaker 3: Half All, right they've got another good. One grizzlies And.
Timberwolves the. Bummers we got two guys that are, Questionable
Anthony edwards And John mortt the two big names. Here, wolves,
though been playing well and this is reflected in the
line minus seven and a. HALF i like This wolves.
TEAM i think they're kind of a little bit of
a sleeper in The. West obviously you got The, juggernauts
BUT i wouldn't sleep on The wolves to be pesky
in the. Playoffs over under a two thirty and a.
Half we mentioned This grizzlies team has been an under
team first part of the. Year how do you break
this one?
Speaker 2: Down, YEAH i, MEAN i agree with you On minnesota
and how pesky they, are and they're definitely a tough.
OUT i don't agree with you on them being a sleeper.
Anymore it's time for them to step up and make
a deep run and even get to THE Nba. Finals
having said all, that we're looking at A minnesota team
that has not covered five in or last six games
as a favorite of eight and a half or.
Speaker 5: Less so they're in that category.
Speaker 2: Tonight AND i should say point spread parameter at minus
seven and a half And memphis eight and three straight
up in their last, eleven five and one straight up IN,
ats and their last six on the. Road The Memphis
grizzlies have shot fifty percent or better in four of
their last five road. Games defensively in their last, five
one hundred and six point eight points per game and
forty four point one percent allowing opponents to. Shoot and
you know WHAT i. Mean here's the, Thing Anthony edwards
And John morant. Questionable we haven't seen a ton of
line movement other than it go down from eight to
seven and a. HALF i Like memphis a lot better
WITH i don't Think memphis suffers as much Without John
morant As minnesota would suffer With Anthony. Edwards AND i
say that in light of what the current point spread. Is,
okay Because memphis has shown they have quality. Depth if
you look Beyond John, morant THERE'S i believe they have
five or six five players, actually because that Z eedi's
out five players averaging double figures beside those two, players
so they have the they have the arsenal and a
roster in a depth to stay in this. GAME i
Like memphis plus seven and a half At minnesota, Tonight,
andy IF i could just share something else in terms
of this, matchup if you don't, mind, sure all, Right
so the first half total in this game is one
eighteen and a. Half the game total is two thirty
and a. Half, okay here's What i'm gonna, suggest. Folks
if this for if this game goes, over and only
if it goes, over that first half total of one
eighteen and a, half make a live bet at. Halftime
i'm going under the, total and especially so if you
get a number of two thirty three and a half or,
greater because if you look at these teams' first half
second half splits on the roade this, year The Memphis
grizzlies score fifty two point nine points per game in
second half action and fifty eight point nine points in
the first. Half so on the, rode their offensive production
in the second half really.
Speaker 5: Sacks In.
Speaker 2: Minnesota over their last five, games they've scored just fifty
four points six points per game at the half and
sixty two points per contest in the second. Half so,
again to be, clear, okay only if this game goes
over the first half total of one to eighteen and a,
half we're gonna get a better number to go over
the total than the game, total, okay which is two
thirty and a, half and even as high as two
thirty three and a half or. GREATER i definitely would
like going over the total in this, game so in
the second. Half so there you. Have it's my breakdown
on what you should do in that. Regard, actually whatever
the number is in the second, HALF i should shouldn't
say two thirty three and a half or. Greater two
thirty three and a half was the opening. Total so
What i'm trying to say is any number that we
could get in the second half is surely gonna be
better than the opening total if indeed this game goes
over the total of one eighteen and a half in
the first.
Speaker 3: Half all, right, Yeah, ross it's, Crazy like it's Like
memphis might Miss Zach eatie more Than John. Morant like,
yeah it's just like a real.
Speaker 2: Thing, look it's one of those situations that over long,
haul it's gonna hurt not having A John. Morant but
in a short term there's enough depth, there especially as
a sizeable, underdog to Give memphis some.
Speaker 5: Value so we'll see it.
Speaker 2: All LIKE i, Said, minnesota they failed to cover five
or last six as a favorite of eight and a
half or, less which shows when they're you, know, uh
they blow teams out as a DOUBLE a nine or,
above and THEY i don't know how they do as an,
underdog but my concern tonight is how they do as
a favorite in this, parameter and they haven't done very.
Speaker 3: Wellly, yeah, YEAH i have to, agree tough. Game if
you want to play, it maybe wait for injuries or
Take ralph's. Suggestions, ralph what do you have about for
everyone to wager talking? To we got the weekend warrior
for just fighting This.
Speaker 5: Ross ralph was the guy who was PREVIOUSLY.
Speaker 3: I told, YOU i told, YOU i told. You it's
been a Morning.
Speaker 2: Ross, Okay i've been call worse Than, ralph and maybe
some would ARGUE i don't.
Speaker 5: Know, Anyway, LOOK i got a great special going on right.
Speaker 2: Now usually our three hundred and sixty five day all
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Speaker 5: Nineteen hundred and ninety nine dollars now sit.
Speaker 2: Wide we brought that price down to fourteen ninety, nine
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Speaker 5: The site throughout the entirety of that three hundred and
sixty five.
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make money over the long, haul that's the way to.
Go for a limited, time they're going to take my
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eleven eighty eight by, twelve as long as my math is,
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Speaker 5: Month it comes to and why should you entertain doing? That?
Well even with a.
Speaker 2: Tough last four or five days over the Since may,
Thirteenth i'm still plus one hundred and seventy five units
in net profit at Wager. Talk so, again college football
off another great regular. SEASON i started the bowl season
last night with the winner On Jacksonville. State THE nfl
has done quite well over the last five. WEEKS nba
off to a twenty four and seventeen start to the.
Season college basketball starting to heat up as. Well eleven eighty.
Eight but you have to use that url wt dot
buzz Slash ross three sixty. Five that's wt dot buzz
forward Slash ross three sixty. Five you'll see it right
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hundred and sixty five. Days all, right let's do all
around the. World do with these what you. Want my
record the last few days and these have been, atrocious
so we'll go to that's Yesterday's chris so good and
pull that one. Off i'll go ahead and just read.
This i'll read the ones THAT i. HAVE i get
The calves and the. Bulls Patrick williams over ten and
a half, points rebounds and. Assists he's barely getting over,
this but he is getting over fifteen to five to
over the last twenty and over and sixth. Straight The
calves are thirtieth in, points, rebounds, assists loud to power.
Forwards he doesn't, start but he does play like twenty
minutes twenty one. Minutes so if we get a pretty
good effort from him, tonight maybe we get over this.
Total we go to college, Basketball South florida At alabama
under one eighty. Two this is a free play on
the Wager Talk live odds. Page South florida start off
the season fast, pace but they've slowed, down so is
their their three point? Shooting the coaches really know each.
Other this is an assistant coach that came From alabama
that's now At South. Florida so when we're looking at
knowing teams and knowing how to possibly slow down this
fast pace Of, alabama potentially that could be a way
to get to the under, Here, Chris i'll send you
the graphic right, now and we'll see if we can
put this up on the screen for, everybody because everyone
know everyone loves the. Graphics, Sorry, Chris chris is mad
at me for not sending them the right. Graphic sending
it right, now all. Right and then last one The
wolves and The. Grizzlies Jaron jackson under twenty six and
a half, points, rebounds and assists ten and five to
the under With Zach edy out of the, lineup which
is really. Counterintuitive my guess is the books are probably
upping THIS pra total With edy. Out but the fact
Is Jaron jackson just has not really been getting it.
Done he's only making six point seven field goal attempts
in those, games only nine point eight rebound chances three
point five. Attempts So Jaren jackson's one of those guys
where he should be a better. REBOUNDER i don't know.
WHY i don't know why he can't rebound in the
way that he does, so but we're gonna take a
look At Patrick williams over his, points rebounds and Assists
alabama And South florida under one eighty seven and The
wolves and The grizzlies under twenty six and a half,
points rebounds and. Assist so all, right that's gonna do
it for. Us it's been quite the.
Speaker 1: Day.
Speaker 3: Uh we cap it off With tom nineteen fifty eight
completely assaulting me in the comments. Section thank you very, Much.
Tom appreciate the guys that actually brings some something nice
to the, chats bring some, positivity bring something. Helpful guys,
KNOW i love you, guys and this show really does
bring a smile to my face every single. Day does
shout out to everybody in the. Chat and we're gonna
pick a winner from yesterday showdown between me And, Jesse
so everybody that left the comment he had a chance
to win a three day. Past so thank you very
Much chris for sitting in For, dan and thank you
to you. Guys make sure you hit the like button
and leave a comment, below really helps the algorithm. Out
have a Great, wednesday let's cash some. Bets good looking
on your bets to. Nights we'll see everyone. Tomorrow take,
care