WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.279 Here's another show you can enjoy in the True Story 2 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:04.320 FM Family of Entertainment podcasts. 3 00:00:04.679 --> 00:00:07.040 Well, howdy, folks. My name is Lester Ryan Clark, and 4 00:00:07.080 --> 00:00:09.800 I'm Keenandias and we're the hosts of The Exorcist Minute, 5 00:00:09.800 --> 00:00:13.240 a show where we examine, extrapolate, and excavate the scariest movie. 6 00:00:13.000 --> 00:00:13.439 Of all time. 7 00:00:13.560 --> 00:00:16.600 Each episode covers a single minute of William Friedkin's nineteen 8 00:00:16.679 --> 00:00:18.760 seventy three horror masterpiece, The Exorcist. 9 00:00:18.839 --> 00:00:21.320 If you like deep dives, this show is the deepest. 10 00:00:21.359 --> 00:00:24.199 Did you know the film's iconic theme song, jugular Bells 11 00:00:24.280 --> 00:00:26.280 wasn't written specifically for the movie, Or that. 12 00:00:26.239 --> 00:00:28.640 The nineteen seventy three audience members were throwing up and 13 00:00:28.679 --> 00:00:30.760 fainting in the theater before they ever got a glimpse 14 00:00:30.760 --> 00:00:31.120 of the demon. 15 00:00:31.199 --> 00:00:34.119 What about all the crazy onset mishaps, cast injuries the 16 00:00:34.159 --> 00:00:35.719 director of firing real guns? 17 00:00:35.920 --> 00:00:37.840 Ever, wonder where weiji boards came from or how they 18 00:00:37.880 --> 00:00:39.719 got their name. How about some history on the Catholic 19 00:00:39.799 --> 00:00:42.359 Church or the Roman rite of exorcism, or maybe we 20 00:00:42.399 --> 00:00:44.960 can tempt you with some juicy demonology. Lord, did you 21 00:00:45.039 --> 00:00:47.439 know that Bazuzu had an ex wife find the Exorcist 22 00:00:47.439 --> 00:00:49.759 Minute on iTunes or Spotify or wherever you listen to 23 00:00:49.759 --> 00:00:52.640 your shows, or at the Exorcist minute dot com. Until 24 00:00:52.640 --> 00:00:53.719 next time, folks. 25 00:00:53.600 --> 00:00:55.560 The power of the Exorcist compels you. 26 00:01:07.359 --> 00:01:10.840 Hello and welcome to this episode of Superhero Ethics. Friends. 27 00:01:10.840 --> 00:01:13.239 If you've listened to pretty much any time myself and 28 00:01:13.280 --> 00:01:16.519 Paul Hoppy have talked, you've probably heard that poker is 29 00:01:16.519 --> 00:01:19.519 a big part of our lives. It's been Paul's primary 30 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:22.079 form of income for a number of years. It's been 31 00:01:22.920 --> 00:01:25.200 mostly my hobby, but at times my primary form of 32 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:28.319 income at various points and times. But more even than that, 33 00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:31.200 it has shaped a lot of the way that Paul 34 00:01:31.200 --> 00:01:33.680 and I talk about things, and then I think, at 35 00:01:33.799 --> 00:01:35.959 least for me, and I think somewhat for Paul, a 36 00:01:35.959 --> 00:01:38.760 lot of how we understand the world. It of course, 37 00:01:38.799 --> 00:01:40.920 also comes up from time to time in some of 38 00:01:40.959 --> 00:01:45.079 our favorite stories and TV shows and movies, sometimes portrayed 39 00:01:45.120 --> 00:01:50.319 well sometimes well not. So we're gonna be discussing that today, 40 00:01:50.359 --> 00:01:53.480 and we're not as much going to talk about poker 41 00:01:53.519 --> 00:01:55.760 on screen, although that will definitely reference it. We're more 42 00:01:55.760 --> 00:01:59.640 going to be talking about how what poker can help 43 00:01:59.719 --> 00:02:02.159 you on understand about the world and about things like 44 00:02:02.239 --> 00:02:06.159 probability and uncertainty, and why, at least for me at least, 45 00:02:06.159 --> 00:02:08.560 why I think that is such an important issue that 46 00:02:08.759 --> 00:02:11.159 does come up in the stories we talk about so 47 00:02:11.240 --> 00:02:13.879 much today. So, Paul, why don't you introduce yourself and 48 00:02:13.879 --> 00:02:15.439 talk a little bit about your background with poker. 49 00:02:16.240 --> 00:02:20.680 Hi, I'm Paul Christopher Happy Akas and Madman, formerly known 50 00:02:20.759 --> 00:02:26.240 as Giant Buddha in Poker Circles. I have been playing 51 00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:29.719 poker since since I was a kid. Actually, there was 52 00:02:30.360 --> 00:02:34.560 literally a Nintendo game called Casino Kid and I rocked 53 00:02:34.560 --> 00:02:36.719 to that, and it was basically you go around and 54 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:41.360 you play like five card draw and blackjack against like 55 00:02:41.439 --> 00:02:43.919 five different dealers each and you have to bust them. 56 00:02:44.439 --> 00:02:46.199 And that's how I learned poker when I was like 57 00:02:46.240 --> 00:02:49.879 probably eleven or twelve or something, which I think is 58 00:02:49.879 --> 00:02:52.159 funny because you know, it's like, people think of gambling 59 00:02:52.159 --> 00:02:54.400 as like eighteen and up, twenty one and up and whatever, 60 00:02:54.680 --> 00:02:57.520 and I think for serious sums of money, that's reasonable. 61 00:02:57.719 --> 00:03:04.879 But I think the certain fundamentals behind gambling and wagering 62 00:03:05.280 --> 00:03:09.680 I think are actually fundamental to understanding reality and decision 63 00:03:09.759 --> 00:03:12.840 making in a lot of ways, and so you know, 64 00:03:12.879 --> 00:03:16.360 in high school we played some of those wild wild 65 00:03:16.400 --> 00:03:21.520 card games, you know. And then shortly after high school, 66 00:03:22.879 --> 00:03:25.639 Rounders came out and I saw the preview, actually the 67 00:03:25.680 --> 00:03:27.599 movie didn't even come out. I saw the preview and 68 00:03:27.759 --> 00:03:31.560 was like, I'm gonna do that. And you know, I 69 00:03:31.599 --> 00:03:34.120 was living on my own in New York City, in 70 00:03:34.120 --> 00:03:38.439 Manhattan and was playing live poker and supporting myself doing that, 71 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:41.159 and which seems like a ridiculous thing unless you know 72 00:03:41.199 --> 00:03:44.159 what my rent was, which was not standard New York 73 00:03:44.199 --> 00:03:48.000 City rent. But but you know, I did that for 74 00:03:48.039 --> 00:03:50.960 a while, and then I played some online poker but 75 00:03:51.199 --> 00:03:53.680 kind of went away from poker when the poker boom 76 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:56.840 happened in like two thousand and three. Came back to 77 00:03:56.879 --> 00:04:01.599 it in six and played super seriously from like six 78 00:04:01.800 --> 00:04:08.080 until twelve. I'd say, like that was my primary to 79 00:04:08.319 --> 00:04:11.400 only a source of income. I then did various poker 80 00:04:11.400 --> 00:04:13.599 related things, like I wrote some poker books, I made 81 00:04:13.599 --> 00:04:17.839 a lot of coaching videos, I coached individual students, and 82 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:22.319 you know, a lot of my life was around poker 83 00:04:22.360 --> 00:04:24.639 at the time. This was right after I stopped teaching 84 00:04:24.680 --> 00:04:28.240 martial arts full time, and then I kind of went 85 00:04:28.279 --> 00:04:30.240 away from poker and kind of came in and out. 86 00:04:30.839 --> 00:04:32.639 But I did work at a casino actually for a 87 00:04:32.720 --> 00:04:34.720 year and a half and had almost every job in 88 00:04:34.759 --> 00:04:37.560 the poker room, including one that they didn't previously have, 89 00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:41.279 which was actually you play on your own money, but 90 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:44.680 on certain hours to help keep games going. And then 91 00:04:44.879 --> 00:04:48.600 you know, now I play primarily online poker, but I 92 00:04:48.720 --> 00:04:52.959 enjoy all forms of the game, and I would say that, 93 00:04:53.199 --> 00:04:59.000 you know, poker really informs so much of my worldview 94 00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:01.199 to the point where I think there's a like, maybe 95 00:05:01.240 --> 00:05:04.600 a couple other things that are on a similar level 96 00:05:04.720 --> 00:05:07.600 in terms of sort of how they've affected how I 97 00:05:07.680 --> 00:05:08.279 view the world. 98 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:12.079 Yeah, yeah, I can totally see that. I think that's 99 00:05:12.079 --> 00:05:13.759 gonna be the meat of what we talk about today. 100 00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:16.519 For me, I had kind of a similar start. I 101 00:05:16.519 --> 00:05:19.040 didn't play the Nintendo game, but my mother taught me 102 00:05:19.079 --> 00:05:23.160 poker at an early age. We played for matchticks, and 103 00:05:23.639 --> 00:05:26.360 her idea of it was, you know, she didn't want 104 00:05:26.360 --> 00:05:28.399 me necessarily to be a gambler, but you know, in 105 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:30.879 the world she had grown up with and that she 106 00:05:31.959 --> 00:05:36.720 was part of as a as a professional, she was 107 00:05:36.759 --> 00:05:39.079 a lawyer at a time when it was still pretty 108 00:05:39.120 --> 00:05:41.639 new for women to be lawyers, especially for she was 109 00:05:41.680 --> 00:05:43.720 one of the first women to go to She was 110 00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:45.720 one of the first women to go to Columbia Law School, 111 00:05:46.639 --> 00:05:48.560 and in her mind, it was you know, look, you're 112 00:05:48.560 --> 00:05:51.240 gonna get invited to poker nights. It's a social thing 113 00:05:51.279 --> 00:05:54.199 that people do. It's a good game to know. And 114 00:05:54.240 --> 00:05:56.639 I've had kind of a very different journey around poker 115 00:05:56.639 --> 00:05:58.639 with Paul, but one that is often intersected in that. 116 00:05:58.759 --> 00:06:01.959 For me, as Paul said, there are many different reasons 117 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:05.120 to play poker. For me, it has always primarily been 118 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:07.720 a way to have fun. I was part of the 119 00:06:07.759 --> 00:06:10.319 high school games that Paul talked about. Many things will 120 00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:12.480 not be said about because in the case in the 121 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:15.240 law enforcement agents, so listening to this, no, it wasn't 122 00:06:15.279 --> 00:06:18.439 that bad, but you know, and I really love those 123 00:06:18.519 --> 00:06:20.839 I started poker nights in college. At various points in 124 00:06:20.879 --> 00:06:23.839 my adult life, I've had a regular like Tuesday night, 125 00:06:23.879 --> 00:06:26.759 friends come over to play poker, And for me, it 126 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:29.240 has actually served a very similar role in my life 127 00:06:29.360 --> 00:06:31.639 as friends come over to play D and D or 128 00:06:31.639 --> 00:06:33.639 friends come over to play matchic the gathering or a 129 00:06:33.639 --> 00:06:36.439 board game night. It is a way for friends to 130 00:06:36.480 --> 00:06:39.560 come together where the money was a way of helping 131 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:43.040 making it interesting and creating stakes so that people weren't 132 00:06:43.079 --> 00:06:45.120 just you know, going crazy all the time. But it 133 00:06:45.160 --> 00:06:48.079 was never really about the money. As I said, I 134 00:06:48.120 --> 00:06:50.639 have had times where poker has helped supplement my income 135 00:06:51.639 --> 00:06:53.879 one point in about six months where it was my 136 00:06:54.040 --> 00:06:56.720 entire income, but I didn't have the skill level to 137 00:06:56.720 --> 00:06:59.000 really sustain that for that much longer than that, especially 138 00:06:59.079 --> 00:07:00.519 it's been a little more than months, but you know, 139 00:07:00.600 --> 00:07:03.079 various points in my life, but for the moment, like 140 00:07:03.120 --> 00:07:04.639 at one point when Paul and I were talking about 141 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:08.639 doing a poker podcast or a poker website of different kinds, 142 00:07:08.800 --> 00:07:10.759 I would always infer to myself as the poker hobbyist, 143 00:07:10.839 --> 00:07:12.360 because for me, that's what I always loved, and so 144 00:07:12.399 --> 00:07:15.360 I love going to a casino. Last week, actually I 145 00:07:15.360 --> 00:07:17.639 was at a casino in Philadelphia, and I wound up 146 00:07:17.639 --> 00:07:22.160 playing six hours of poker and losing a total of 147 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:23.959 four dollars because I went down and then I went 148 00:07:24.000 --> 00:07:26.000 back up, and then I went down and up, and 149 00:07:26.000 --> 00:07:28.680 and I didn't look at it as, oh, no, I 150 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:31.079 had a terrible night. I lost four dollars. I looked 151 00:07:31.079 --> 00:07:33.680 at it as I just had six hours of great 152 00:07:33.759 --> 00:07:36.600 entertainment at a casino fore and paid seventy five cents 153 00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:38.680 an hour. Like that was you know to me, like 154 00:07:38.920 --> 00:07:40.560 and we also counted in like the drinks I was 155 00:07:40.600 --> 00:07:42.639 getting in the water, and then you know, all it 156 00:07:42.639 --> 00:07:44.279 it was worth it. It was a good price to pay. 157 00:07:44.439 --> 00:07:47.120 It's hard to find entertainment at that price these days. 158 00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:50.959 Yes, especially especially in a casino or something like that. 159 00:07:51.040 --> 00:07:53.879 You know, try going to downtown Vegas and find some 160 00:07:53.920 --> 00:07:56.000 way to entertain yourself for a better price. 161 00:07:56.040 --> 00:07:58.319 Yeah, or better yet don't yeah. 162 00:07:58.240 --> 00:07:59.720 Yeah, no, no, don't exact cause. 163 00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:03.480 I'm sure there's but I'm not gonna necessarily recommend those. 164 00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:08.680 But certainly I think, as you mentioned, I think this 165 00:08:08.759 --> 00:08:10.360 is mostly from you, but also from a lot of 166 00:08:10.360 --> 00:08:14.519 my own observances. I have found how much poker has 167 00:08:14.560 --> 00:08:17.560 also helped me to understand life a lot better. And 168 00:08:17.560 --> 00:08:20.240 another think that it's poker's This is not you know, 169 00:08:20.360 --> 00:08:22.800 poker is the key to enlightenment. Meant by any means, 170 00:08:23.319 --> 00:08:25.639 it's that I think there are a lot of things 171 00:08:25.680 --> 00:08:28.199 in the world that that people really struggle with or 172 00:08:28.240 --> 00:08:30.600 that that and I think, especially like the writers and 173 00:08:30.639 --> 00:08:32.919 the characters of the stories we love often have trouble 174 00:08:32.960 --> 00:08:40.360 with around understanding probability and also understanding uncertainty chaos, if 175 00:08:40.399 --> 00:08:43.000 you want to call it that. That feels very relevant, 176 00:08:43.000 --> 00:08:44.320 and I think that's kind of what we're wanting to 177 00:08:44.320 --> 00:08:48.080 talk about today. And you know, I think this is 178 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:50.159 a topic that can get a little self helpy, and 179 00:08:50.200 --> 00:08:52.720 we don't mean it like that, but I do think 180 00:08:52.759 --> 00:08:56.960 there's some elements of especially in this you know, probability 181 00:08:57.039 --> 00:09:00.559 and polls and statistics are becoming very important verations in 182 00:09:00.600 --> 00:09:02.279 our world today, and I know it's something that Paul 183 00:09:02.279 --> 00:09:04.200 and I have a lot of strong feelings about, and 184 00:09:04.240 --> 00:09:06.559 so that's certainly going to be an area of focus. 185 00:09:06.639 --> 00:09:08.879 But this isn't about, you know, trying to say you 186 00:09:08.919 --> 00:09:11.080 should live your lives the way we do. Don't definitely 187 00:09:11.159 --> 00:09:13.360 live your life the way I do, but just about 188 00:09:13.360 --> 00:09:16.519 like giving you some other ideas of how to think 189 00:09:16.519 --> 00:09:18.960 about these things, and particularly in terms of like the 190 00:09:19.240 --> 00:09:21.279 stories and the characters and also in our non world. 191 00:09:23.039 --> 00:09:26.279 Yeah, and I mean I would I would maybe say 192 00:09:26.360 --> 00:09:28.720 I do mean some things in a little bit of 193 00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:32.559 a self helpish sort of way, you know, just in 194 00:09:32.639 --> 00:09:36.679 terms of like I think the one of the biggest lessons. 195 00:09:37.080 --> 00:09:38.720 I don't know exactly where you want to start off, 196 00:09:38.759 --> 00:09:42.200 but like go for I think one of the biggest lessons, 197 00:09:42.399 --> 00:09:46.919 if not the biggest, is that you know you can't 198 00:09:46.960 --> 00:09:51.600 control everything through your actions. Right Like in poker and 199 00:09:51.679 --> 00:09:55.840 in life, it makes sense. It behooves you to try 200 00:09:55.879 --> 00:09:59.600 to make the best decisions you can right with the 201 00:09:59.639 --> 00:10:03.600 inform you have available at the time. You can't think 202 00:10:03.639 --> 00:10:05.679 about you should have made a different decision with some 203 00:10:05.799 --> 00:10:09.639 information you didn't possess or weren't able to acquire, and 204 00:10:10.639 --> 00:10:14.919 then the outcome, like, the better your decisions are on average, 205 00:10:15.399 --> 00:10:19.879 you'll get better outcomes. But there are also many things 206 00:10:19.879 --> 00:10:23.600 that are outside of your control. Right and poker, it's 207 00:10:23.919 --> 00:10:26.759 what cards you get dealt, what cards come out after 208 00:10:26.799 --> 00:10:31.120 your initial cards are dealt, how your opponents respond to 209 00:10:31.159 --> 00:10:34.440 your bets, what cards they get dealt, and these you 210 00:10:34.440 --> 00:10:38.360 can't control these things, and so there has to be 211 00:10:38.360 --> 00:10:41.320 an acceptance of I'm just going to try and make 212 00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:45.679 good decisions, take good actions given the information I have, 213 00:10:45.960 --> 00:10:48.399 and then the outcomes will be what they are. And 214 00:10:48.480 --> 00:10:51.879 if I keep making good decisions, the better my decisions 215 00:10:51.879 --> 00:10:54.879 are on average, the better my outcomes will be. But 216 00:10:55.600 --> 00:10:58.440 that doesn't mean a piano won't fall on my head, right, Like, 217 00:10:59.320 --> 00:11:01.279 I mean, you know, if you're walking in the forest, 218 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:03.279 a piano probably won't fall on your head, but like 219 00:11:04.000 --> 00:11:07.480 a tree mte exactly that that might be more likely 220 00:11:07.519 --> 00:11:09.960 than a piano falling on your head anywhere than outside 221 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:14.519 a piano throwing place, you know, I don't know, there's 222 00:11:14.559 --> 00:11:17.039 some game show where they like throw a piano off 223 00:11:17.039 --> 00:11:19.120 a conveyor belt or something, and like, if you're standing 224 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:21.679 down there, you actually have a pretty high probability of 225 00:11:21.720 --> 00:11:23.720 having a piano land on your head. But so I 226 00:11:23.720 --> 00:11:27.480 would recommend like don't stand there, right, But I mean, overall, 227 00:11:27.639 --> 00:11:31.720 the main point just being like, you know, there's things 228 00:11:31.720 --> 00:11:33.919 you can control and there's things that you can't, and 229 00:11:34.080 --> 00:11:36.519 being able to figure out which of those are which 230 00:11:36.600 --> 00:11:39.679 and just do the best with the things you can control, 231 00:11:39.759 --> 00:11:42.600 and like that is kind of super self helpy, I 232 00:11:42.639 --> 00:11:44.960 think in some ways. But it's also just like it's 233 00:11:44.960 --> 00:11:47.240 also kind of obvious in a lot of ways, but 234 00:11:47.320 --> 00:11:51.720 it's not always obvious. What, right, the real ramifications of 235 00:11:51.720 --> 00:11:52.200 that are. 236 00:11:52.759 --> 00:11:54.279 Yeah, I think a lot of what we're gonna be 237 00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:57.919 talking about is about that idea of what does it 238 00:11:58.039 --> 00:12:00.879 meant the Captain Picard line for Star Trek that's so 239 00:12:00.919 --> 00:12:03.600 often quoted of sometimes you can do all the right 240 00:12:03.679 --> 00:12:07.039 things and still fail, And that doesn't mean you did 241 00:12:07.080 --> 00:12:11.480 something wrong. It mean that's just called life. Nor does 242 00:12:11.480 --> 00:12:15.440 it mean that something unfair or something like that. As 243 00:12:15.440 --> 00:12:17.240 well as I think there's also a lot of thoughts 244 00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:19.799 that I have about why is it that we have 245 00:12:19.840 --> 00:12:23.639 so much trouble accepting again, whether you want to call 246 00:12:23.639 --> 00:12:26.480 it randomness or uncertainty or chaos or whatever it is. 247 00:12:27.279 --> 00:12:29.039 Let me back up though and talk about because I 248 00:12:29.080 --> 00:12:31.039 think we're diving into some of the concepts from poker, 249 00:12:31.039 --> 00:12:33.960 but that some people who don't know the game may 250 00:12:34.000 --> 00:12:38.360 not understand as much because certainly poker is at least 251 00:12:39.200 --> 00:12:40.639 I don't want to get that. There's a whole bunch 252 00:12:40.639 --> 00:12:43.559 of debate about whether poker is gambling or not. And 253 00:12:44.879 --> 00:12:47.919 poker is distinctly different than most other games at a 254 00:12:47.919 --> 00:12:50.480 casino in that you're not playing against the house, you're 255 00:12:50.480 --> 00:12:53.279 playing against other players. So like if I sit down 256 00:12:53.279 --> 00:12:55.399 a blackjack or craps, I can tell myself I have 257 00:12:55.399 --> 00:12:58.440 a very good system, but statistically I am never going 258 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:01.559 to be the favorite, whereas in poker, like there's there's 259 00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:02.799 different degrees of that. 260 00:13:02.759 --> 00:13:05.799 Right, except in blackjack if you count cards and yadaya YadA. 261 00:13:05.720 --> 00:13:10.080 Right, yeah, yeah, and there's ways to different systems, et cetera. Again, 262 00:13:10.159 --> 00:13:12.240 no one from any law enforcement agencies, of course, we 263 00:13:12.279 --> 00:13:12.679 don't do that. 264 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:16.960 No, that's that's completely okay, Okay, we're just gonna have 265 00:13:16.960 --> 00:13:19.720 to blackjack. You're allowed to count cards in terms of 266 00:13:19.720 --> 00:13:23.320 the law, but casinos will ban you because they are 267 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:26.440 allowed to. But it's not illegal. Counting cards in blackjack 268 00:13:26.519 --> 00:13:29.559 is not illegal. Using mechanical advice devices and stuff is. 269 00:13:29.639 --> 00:13:32.919 But that's a that's a huge like movie pet peeve 270 00:13:33.320 --> 00:13:33.679 of mind. 271 00:13:33.759 --> 00:13:35.960 Yes, that's but well, most of the time they don't 272 00:13:35.960 --> 00:13:38.679 show you getting arrested. They sure you're getting you kneecaps busted. 273 00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:42.639 But they also often just say it's illegal, you know, 274 00:13:42.879 --> 00:13:45.600 like they literally say that, and that's just factually inaccurate. 275 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:48.759 So that's fair, okay. But back to the poker point 276 00:13:48.759 --> 00:13:53.799 of it. Though, you know, in a given hand you've 277 00:13:53.799 --> 00:13:58.279 got certain cards, but at any point, you know, you know, 278 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:00.120 the last card come out and give someone else the 279 00:14:00.120 --> 00:14:03.879 better hand or something like that. How is it that 280 00:14:03.919 --> 00:14:07.240 you can actually like, if there is that much randomness 281 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:09.039 is it in it? How is it that you can 282 00:14:09.039 --> 00:14:11.279 make money at it? Like you'd think that it would 283 00:14:11.279 --> 00:14:13.159 be random in terms of who winds up getting different 284 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:14.159 money and stuff like that. 285 00:14:14.919 --> 00:14:18.639 Right, Well, because I mean, poker is a game that 286 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:23.159 combines skill and chance, and most games do that to 287 00:14:23.200 --> 00:14:26.879 some extent or another. But you know, the literal turn 288 00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:29.799 of a card is is chance as just a pure 289 00:14:29.879 --> 00:14:30.960 randomness right? 290 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:31.360 Right? 291 00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:35.399 But because there's certain constraints to that randomness. It's not 292 00:14:35.600 --> 00:14:38.960 like you're going to suddenly get you know, the eleven 293 00:14:39.000 --> 00:14:42.279 of purple horseshoes, like that's not You know what cards 294 00:14:42.279 --> 00:14:43.840 are in the deck to again with, right, So you 295 00:14:43.879 --> 00:14:47.720 know the constraints of the game, so you can understand 296 00:14:47.799 --> 00:14:51.720 how likely certain outcomes are and you can take actions 297 00:14:51.919 --> 00:14:57.799 that are going to be more advantageous based on what 298 00:14:57.840 --> 00:15:00.519 the possible outcomes are. Right. So it's like you don't 299 00:15:00.519 --> 00:15:03.519 know what the individual outcome is. But if you know 300 00:15:03.559 --> 00:15:05.279 what cards you have, you know what cards are left 301 00:15:05.279 --> 00:15:07.600 in the deck, right, you can know how likely you 302 00:15:07.639 --> 00:15:09.600 are to make a flush with one card to come. 303 00:15:10.080 --> 00:15:13.600 And if you're putting in, you know, one hundred dollars 304 00:15:13.639 --> 00:15:15.919 in order to win two hundred and there's one card 305 00:15:15.919 --> 00:15:17.360 to come, and you're trying to make a flush and 306 00:15:17.399 --> 00:15:19.639 that's the only way you can win the pot. That's 307 00:15:19.840 --> 00:15:21.879 not a good bet. But if you're putting in ten 308 00:15:21.919 --> 00:15:24.360 dollars to win one hundred, like, that's a very good bet. 309 00:15:24.480 --> 00:15:24.639 Right. 310 00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:28.120 So it's basically you can see you're getting odds, and 311 00:15:28.200 --> 00:15:30.799 you're just comparing what the odds are to you. The 312 00:15:30.840 --> 00:15:34.120 actual reality of the situation is much more complicated. But 313 00:15:34.240 --> 00:15:37.000 the other thing is that you know, we have this 314 00:15:37.039 --> 00:15:38.799 thing called no you want to. 315 00:15:39.240 --> 00:15:41.039 Yeah, I just want to focus on that first part 316 00:15:41.080 --> 00:15:42.360 for a second, because I think that's one of the 317 00:15:42.360 --> 00:15:44.159 things that a lot of people don't understand, is that 318 00:15:45.919 --> 00:15:47.679 part of the point of poker, and this is I 319 00:15:47.679 --> 00:15:49.799 think part of a lot of things in life, is 320 00:15:49.799 --> 00:15:53.279 that you're not trying to think about any one instance 321 00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:56.840 that take a situation like what you just described, where 322 00:15:56.960 --> 00:15:58.840 I'm just going to make up the numbers to make 323 00:15:58.840 --> 00:16:02.399 it roughly easier. Stand, you have a one in five 324 00:16:02.600 --> 00:16:06.960 chance of winning, but if you win, you will get 325 00:16:07.000 --> 00:16:08.080 ten times your money. 326 00:16:08.279 --> 00:16:08.559 Right. 327 00:16:08.720 --> 00:16:11.759 Well, if you just sit down and do that four times, 328 00:16:12.519 --> 00:16:15.200 or even five times, or even ten times, you may 329 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:18.080 well lose your money. Overall. Sure, but if you do 330 00:16:18.159 --> 00:16:20.720 that thousands of times, if you do that and you 331 00:16:20.879 --> 00:16:24.759 always do it the same way over the long run, 332 00:16:24.960 --> 00:16:27.759 assuming that the statistics are working. As the statistics are working, 333 00:16:27.759 --> 00:16:29.759 you know, the deck can fixed or someone isn't cheating. 334 00:16:30.440 --> 00:16:33.399 In the long run, you know, the one out of 335 00:16:33.440 --> 00:16:35.600 five times you get paid is going to make you 336 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:37.919 more money than you lost the four times out of 337 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:40.960 five that you lost, and so your profit is eventually 338 00:16:41.000 --> 00:16:45.039 going to come. And that that's what's different. Like, you know, 339 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:48.480 to take the lottery, for example, you could buy an 340 00:16:48.559 --> 00:16:51.080 infinite number of lottery tickets and you still would wind 341 00:16:51.159 --> 00:16:54.200 up losing because the one time you hit the lottery 342 00:16:54.240 --> 00:16:56.120 it doesn't actually make up for all the other times 343 00:16:56.159 --> 00:16:58.879 you could. You could do it, and so that's and 344 00:16:59.759 --> 00:17:01.519 I think that's what you were kind of getting at before, 345 00:17:01.559 --> 00:17:05.519 about the like you do the small things all the 346 00:17:05.640 --> 00:17:11.680 time each time knowing that like that, this is about 347 00:17:11.720 --> 00:17:14.359 how you think about a repeatable, every day kind of 348 00:17:14.359 --> 00:17:16.440 a thing or you know, instead of just like the 349 00:17:16.480 --> 00:17:19.480 one decision you have to make once with with you know, 350 00:17:20.799 --> 00:17:21.960 without any repeatability. 351 00:17:22.519 --> 00:17:25.400 Yeah, I mean the repeatability is a is a big 352 00:17:25.440 --> 00:17:28.599 deal of it, right, I mean even if you're only 353 00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:32.319 doing one thing one time. There's still a concept of 354 00:17:32.440 --> 00:17:38.680 expected value, right, which is essentially the average expected outcome. Right. 355 00:17:38.720 --> 00:17:41.400 If you took out up all of the outcomes and 356 00:17:41.519 --> 00:17:44.720 assign them basically a likelihood of each outcome, and then 357 00:17:45.480 --> 00:17:48.680 you figure out the average of that, that's your expected value, 358 00:17:48.720 --> 00:17:53.759 and in one instance you know it's either probably going 359 00:17:53.839 --> 00:17:56.680 to be a win or a loss. And if you're 360 00:17:56.680 --> 00:18:00.160 only doing one thing one time, then you know your 361 00:18:00.319 --> 00:18:06.240 chances it kind of it doesn't function the same way, right, 362 00:18:06.359 --> 00:18:09.759 Like there's when you play enough volume, when you make 363 00:18:09.799 --> 00:18:14.240 a large volume of decisions with certain you know, with 364 00:18:14.440 --> 00:18:17.519 positive expected value, over the long run, the likelihood of 365 00:18:17.720 --> 00:18:21.799 having a negative overall outcome just goes down and down 366 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:26.319 and down until it becomes vanishingly small. You can be 367 00:18:26.599 --> 00:18:31.319 very unlucky, which would be you know, having negative outcomes 368 00:18:31.640 --> 00:18:35.079 for a very long time, like a length of time 369 00:18:35.119 --> 00:18:38.359 that's shocking to most people. Right. But the longer the time, 370 00:18:38.440 --> 00:18:41.519 the less likely it is, provided that you know you're 371 00:18:41.559 --> 00:18:44.880 getting your money in good that you're you're making positive 372 00:18:46.200 --> 00:18:49.640 effective plays, right. 373 00:18:50.079 --> 00:18:51.799 And just to go a little bit deeper on this 374 00:18:51.839 --> 00:18:54.799 idea of probability and how this all works. You talked 375 00:18:54.839 --> 00:18:57.200 about how the length of time it might take for 376 00:18:57.240 --> 00:18:59.359 the numbers to sort of average out the way people 377 00:18:59.400 --> 00:19:03.319 would expect is a lot longer than people might think. Yeah, 378 00:19:03.440 --> 00:19:05.880 and so, for example, in that case of like, if 379 00:19:05.880 --> 00:19:09.200 you're expected to win one out of five times, it's 380 00:19:09.200 --> 00:19:12.160 actually statistically quite possible that you could do that five times, 381 00:19:12.200 --> 00:19:15.839 ten times, maybe even fifteen times, and lose every single time. 382 00:19:17.680 --> 00:19:20.839 One of the concepts that people playing poker or gambling 383 00:19:21.079 --> 00:19:23.720 or just talking about chance in general is the idea 384 00:19:23.799 --> 00:19:26.200 that dice have no memory. Right, talk a little bit 385 00:19:26.200 --> 00:19:29.000 about what that means in terms of like probability and expectation. 386 00:19:29.720 --> 00:19:32.759 Right, So there's and this is why you can beat 387 00:19:32.759 --> 00:19:37.359 blackjack incidentally in theory compared to a game like craps. 388 00:19:39.000 --> 00:19:43.279 But yeah, so there's the gambler's fallacy, right, which is 389 00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:45.720 I'm actually not even sure exactly which one it is, 390 00:19:45.759 --> 00:19:49.559 but basically, let's just go with a coin. Right. If 391 00:19:49.599 --> 00:19:52.119 we flip a coin one time and at lands heads, 392 00:19:52.680 --> 00:19:54.960 then you know, is it more likely to be heads 393 00:19:55.039 --> 00:19:57.000 on the second flip, or is it more likely to 394 00:19:57.000 --> 00:19:59.119 be tails or is it still fifty to fifty if 395 00:19:59.119 --> 00:20:02.440 we assume a fair coin. Well, it's still fifty to fifty, right, 396 00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:06.200 because the coin has no memory unless there's like something 397 00:20:06.200 --> 00:20:08.640 about the way you're flipping it, and actually there's something 398 00:20:08.839 --> 00:20:12.799 about like physics. It's not really fifty to fifty even 399 00:20:12.839 --> 00:20:15.319 with a fair cat. It's there's a whole thing apparently 400 00:20:15.480 --> 00:20:18.079 that's like recently been. But like if we assume just 401 00:20:18.440 --> 00:20:22.839