Speaker 1: Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse for
Speaker 1: March twenty seventh, twenty twenty six. Three hundred million dollars
Speaker 1: in longs just got wiped out. Bitcoin's at a two
Speaker 1: week low, and the people who sold retail, the people
Speaker 1: who watched whales, got a lot to unpack today. But first,
Speaker 1: a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so here's what's happening.
Speaker 1: So here's what happened. Bitcoin dropped below sixty seven thousand
Speaker 1: dollars and triggered a three hundred million dollar liquidation cascade.
Speaker 1: That's not a dip, that's a flush, and GLASSNOE data
Speaker 1: tells us something uncomfortable about who was doing the selling.
Speaker 1: It was retail smaller holders, the ones who blinked first whales.
Speaker 1: They basically sat on their hands the entire time. Now,
Speaker 1: you could read that two ways. Either the big money
Speaker 1: is comfortable at these levels or they're waiting for a
Speaker 1: cleaner entry lower. Honestly, neither of those reads is particularly
Speaker 1: bullish term and layered on top of that, US bitcoin
Speaker 1: ETF outflows just hit a three week high. Traders are
Speaker 1: citing geopolitical uncertainty and rising treasury yields as the trigger.
Speaker 1: Here's the irony worth sitting with. These ETF products were
Speaker 1: supposed to bring institutional stability to bitcoin. Turns out wrapping
Speaker 1: bitcoin in a brokerage account doesn't change what it does.
Speaker 1: When bond yields spike, the correlation trade is fully on.
Speaker 1: So where does that leave the broader market? Pretty ugly? Honestly,
Speaker 1: Bitcoin sitting around sixty six and a half thousand, down
Speaker 1: over four percent on the day Etherium broke below two
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, and that's the chart nobody wanted to see.
Speaker 1: Solana is down over five percent. Total market cap is
Speaker 1: off about four percent, sitting around two point three seven trillion.
Speaker 1: The one number that's actually moving higher is bitcoin dominance,
Speaker 1: now at fifty six percent, which makes sense. When everything bleeds,
Speaker 1: capital tends to rotate in to the perceived safe haven
Speaker 1: of the bunch, and right now that's bitcoin DeFi TVL
Speaker 1: is basically flat around ninety three billion, which is fine,
Speaker 1: I guess, But flat TVL during a selloff means liquidity
Speaker 1: isn't flaeing yet. That's the one quiet positive in an
Speaker 1: otherwise rough tape. All right, So what's actually driving all
Speaker 1: this and what else is happening under the surface. Let's
Speaker 1: start with the ETF outflows, because this one matters for
Speaker 1: how you read the next few days. Decrypt is reporting
Speaker 1: that traders are explicitly positioning for a volatile weekend. Geopolitical
Speaker 1: headlines plus thin weekend liquidity is a bad combination. A
Speaker 1: move that's two percent on a Tuesday can become five
Speaker 1: percent on a Saturday morning when there are no market
Speaker 1: makers at their desks. So if you're watching Bitcoin hold
Speaker 1: around sixty five to sixty seven thousand heading into the weekend,
Speaker 1: that level is being tested in the worst possible conditions
Speaker 1: for it to hold. Okay, So here's a story that
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with the selloff and is honestly
Speaker 1: kind of wild. Ice the organization that runs the New
Speaker 1: York Stock Exchange just put another six hundred million into Polymarket,
Speaker 1: the prediction market platform, and poly market just crossed twenty
Speaker 1: billion dollars in monthly volume. Let that land for a second.
Speaker 1: The nysec's parent company is now one of the largest
Speaker 1: single institutional backers of any crypto native platform on Earth,
Speaker 1: and trm Labs data shows geopolitics is now driving the
Speaker 1: majority of prediction market activity, meaning these platforms have quietly
Speaker 1: become the world's most liquid real time political risk exchange.
Speaker 1: Twenty billion in monthly volume is not a niche product.
Speaker 1: That's a market structure story. Next up, Tether, This is
Speaker 1: the audit the crypto industry has been demanding since roughly
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen. Tether has tapped KPMG for its first Big
Speaker 1: four audit of USDT reserves. The timing is not so.
Speaker 1: Stable coin legislation is actually moving through Congress right now,
Speaker 1: and a clean KPMG sign off would make usdt's position
Speaker 1: as the dominant stable coin nearly unassailable in institutional contexts.
Speaker 1: If the audit surfaces anything unexpected, though, the downstream effects
Speaker 1: on defile liquidity and market structure would be significant. The
Speaker 1: incentives are genuinely aligned for a clean result this time.
Speaker 1: But we've heard that before. Now here's the narrative rotation story,
Speaker 1: and this one caught me off guard. While Bitcoin and
Speaker 1: ethereum are down over four percent, Deepen tokens are up
Speaker 1: nearly twenty six percent on the week, AI tokens up
Speaker 1: almost seventeen percent, meme coins up over ten percent, smart
Speaker 1: contract platforms and DeFi both down over two percent. Capital
Speaker 1: is rotating out of the infrastructure layer and into applications
Speaker 1: and speculation. When everything bleeds and two specific narratives post
Speaker 1: double digit game means that's a rotation signal worth taking seriously.
Speaker 1: The spread between smart contract platforms at negative two percent
Speaker 1: and Deepen at positive twenty six percent is the kind
Speaker 1: of divergence that precedes either a ketchup trade or a
Speaker 1: narrative collapse. One of these is right, We just don't
Speaker 1: know which one yet. A few quick things worth flagging.
Speaker 1: Fannie May is reportedly accepting crypto for mortgage qualification. If confirmed,
Speaker 1: that's the most mainstream US housing finance integration yet, and
Speaker 1: it rewrites the crypto isn't real money argument for an
Speaker 1: entirely new demographic. Mara Holdings completed a one billion dollar
Speaker 1: bitcoin purchase and used the proceeds to buy back debt.
Speaker 1: That's the post having mining company playbook becoming standard, and
Speaker 1: AVE led declines in the coin desk twenty down over
Speaker 1: three percent. When AVE cracks, it usually means defied TVL
Speaker 1: pressure is broader than the headline number suggests. All right,
Speaker 1: before we get into the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay,
Speaker 1: we're back. Let's talk about what to watch for. So
Speaker 1: what should you actually be worried about heading into the weekend.
Speaker 1: Three things. First, retail capitulated, but whales didn't absorb. If
Speaker 1: institutions don't step in as buyers at these levels, the
Speaker 1: next leg down has no natural floor from the cohort
Speaker 1: that's been holding the bid. That's the uncomfortable version of
Speaker 1: the whale neutrality story. Second, etf outflows and rising treasury
Speaker 1: yields are moving in the same direction. When crypto redemptions
Speaker 1: and macro risk off a line like this, risk managers
Speaker 1: don't add exposure, they reduce it further. The crypto as
Speaker 1: uncorrelated asset thesis is not working right now. Third weekend
Speaker 1: liquidity is thin and traders are explicitly positioned for volatility.
Speaker 1: Geopolitical headlines don't take weekends off. A headline that moves
Speaker 1: markets two percent on a Tuesday can do five percent
Speaker 1: on a Saturday morning. That's just math looking ahead. Here's
Speaker 1: what's on my radar for the next few days. Any
Speaker 1: update from KPMG on the tether audit timeline will move
Speaker 1: stable coin sentiment fast. Clean early signal is bullish for
Speaker 1: defile liquidity. A delay is a structural risk flag. FED
Speaker 1: speakers are on the calendar for the week of March thirtieth,
Speaker 1: rising treasury yields with a direct trigger for today's sell
Speaker 1: off and ETF outflows, So any comments on rate trajectory
Speaker 1: will set the macro tone for crypto through April. And
Speaker 1: watch for any product integration announcement from ICE and Polymarket.
Speaker 1: If they connect prediction market infrastructure to NYC plumbing, that's
Speaker 1: the moment prediction markets stop being a crypto story and
Speaker 1: become a financial infrastructure story. If you got something out
Speaker 1: of today's episode, send it to a friend who's in
Speaker 1: a crypto That's genuinely the best way to support what
Speaker 1: we're doing here. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.