Speaker 1: Russia has attacked to cargo ships in the Black Sea
Speaker 1: near the southwestern Ukrainian city of Odessa. You can see
Speaker 1: one of those ships out there is on fire. It
Speaker 1: was hit by a drone. Russians Defense Ministry says the
Speaker 1: vessels were carrying military goods. Ukraine says a shiploaded with
Speaker 1: wheat was hit in Odessa and that it was sailing
Speaker 1: under the Guinea Bisou flag. It's not clear yet if
Speaker 1: those two incidents are connected. For more on this situation
Speaker 1: in Ukraine, we've reached retired Major General Scott Clancy in Ottawa.
Speaker 1: He's a former director of operations for NORAD. Thank you
Speaker 1: for making the time this morning, Scott. Two nights ago
Speaker 1: there was a ferocious attack on Kiev, a barrage of
Speaker 1: twenty eight missiles one hundred and fifteen drones, and reports
Speaker 1: out of Ukraine suggest that none of those missiles were
Speaker 1: intercepted because Ukraine is running low on on interceptors. How
Speaker 1: dire is the situation for that munition in that.
Speaker 2: Country, It's very significant.
Speaker 3: In all air defense systems, you have to have layered defenses,
Speaker 3: things that will deal with the multiple threats like the
Speaker 3: drones as well as the ballistic missiles. In what's happened
Speaker 3: in the evolution of the air defense battle around Ukraine
Speaker 3: is that they're running out of the interceptors, so not
Speaker 3: the launchers of Patriot systems, the actual missiles that they
Speaker 3: have to launch, so none of those ballistic missiles are intercepted.
Speaker 3: And Russia is picking up on this, and that's why
Speaker 3: they've almost increased by eighty three percent or almost doubled
Speaker 3: the amount of ballistic missiles they're using amongst their attacks,
Speaker 3: because they know they can get after the high value
Speaker 3: targets inside of Ukraine. President Zelenski is making his strongest
Speaker 3: pitch yet. He said that only one third of what
Speaker 3: was delivered last year on these interceptors has been delivered
Speaker 3: this year. And when he visited President Trump on the
Speaker 3: twenty eighth of July, made a pitch not just for
Speaker 3: more donations, but a switch to providing licenses so that
Speaker 3: he can produce those missiles in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: And yet we're hearing from White House reporting that President
Speaker 1: Trump has gotten cooled off on the whole idea of
Speaker 1: Ukraine making its own interceptors. And besides, that would take
Speaker 1: years to fulfill, wouldn't.
Speaker 3: It, So it could but it would be under the
Speaker 3: control of the Ukrainians, so as fast as they can move,
Speaker 3: then they would be able to do it.
Speaker 2: And this is about a sovereign capability.
Speaker 3: Canada knows a little bit something about that, as we
Speaker 3: try to maneuver so that our supply chains aren't completely
Speaker 3: at the mercy of the United States either.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of pushback.
Speaker 3: One of Ukraine's biggest offsets here is that they're producing
Speaker 3: counter drone technologies that the United States is using to
Speaker 3: protect their bases in the Middle East as well as
Speaker 3: some of their Middle Eastern allies. So this kind of
Speaker 3: licensing is is a good quid pro quote, but it's
Speaker 3: not and the best interest of Lockheed Martin and their
Speaker 3: profit margins, and that's why President Trump is pushing back.
Speaker 1: Yes, and it also it appears that, of course the
Speaker 1: response from the US on missiles and on interceptors in
Speaker 1: Ukraine is very inconsistent. And we're looking at a summer
Speaker 1: where you say, Russia is recognizing this gap. So what
Speaker 1: is Ukraine to do in the short term.
Speaker 3: That's going to be very difficult, and it's indicative of
Speaker 3: how the West has dealt with this entire conflict. If
Speaker 3: we had given and I say NATO as well as Canada,
Speaker 3: the United States, everyone had given Ukraine all of the
Speaker 3: capabilities to execute their complete defense at the outset of
Speaker 3: this war four years ago. It would be a very
Speaker 3: different conflict today. But even today, we don't give them
Speaker 3: or enable them to have all of the long range
Speaker 3: strike capabilities to go after the ballistic missile systems of
Speaker 3: Russia so that they can take the fight to the
Speaker 3: Russian homeland. We give them a portion of their defense
Speaker 3: systems that are required, but not everything.
Speaker 2: We're either all in with this ally or we're not.
Speaker 3: And I think we've demonstrated all our NATO countries we're
Speaker 3: not all in with this.
Speaker 1: Switching war zones for a minute here, as I have
Speaker 1: you on munitions, there have been numerous reports that the
Speaker 1: US is running low on its missiles because of the
Speaker 1: month's long war in Iran. Do you think those reports
Speaker 1: are accurate? Of course, Trump has fired back as recently
Speaker 1: as this morning saying that that's not true. What sense
Speaker 1: are you getting of the stockpile situation for the US?
Speaker 3: So the supply chains of the United States and its
Speaker 3: military have been under attack for a significant amount of time.
Speaker 3: When I say under attack, I mean because they've been
Speaker 3: depleting them at unprecedented levels, and whether that's twelve months
Speaker 3: ago or six months ago with an initial volley of
Speaker 3: Iranian missiles, the desire to protect and assist Israel in
Speaker 3: multiple occasions as the Iranians try to come at them,
Speaker 3: their retracted conflict in the Middle East, and the desire
Speaker 3: to at least deliver some capabilities to the Ukrainians.
Speaker 2: It's been predicted for a few years.
Speaker 3: Now that the United States is going to meet up
Speaker 3: with a supply chain problem because the demand cannot meet
Speaker 3: the production of the US big especially the big defense contractors.
Speaker 3: One of the reasons why President Zelenski is saying license me,
Speaker 3: I will produce an at pace because he's up against
Speaker 3: the wall. His wall is an existential wall for his country.
Speaker 3: You're just dealing with profit margins.
Speaker 2: And things like this.
Speaker 1: And it appears from reporting that Russia is getting a
Speaker 1: supply chain ally in North Korea and China. So what
Speaker 1: are we seeing going into the fall and winter concerning
Speaker 1: the munition's capability in Ukraine to fight back?
Speaker 3: So what I say about the advent of the North
Speaker 3: Koreans and the Chinese and their support to this conflict.
Speaker 3: Is that makes Russia's war of attrition in Ukraine actually
Speaker 3: a winning strategy. And what we would have thought of
Speaker 3: before is you know, you're never going to win an
Speaker 3: attritionist war with those supply chains at play, you can
Speaker 3: North Korea is going to be delivering a big portion
Speaker 3: of a missile battalion into the Russian periphery around one
Speaker 3: of the Russian missile brigades of kN twenty three and
Speaker 3: twenty four missiles. Those ballistic missiles will have the same
Speaker 3: present Ukraine with the same problems that the missiles the
Speaker 3: other evening presented. More ballistic missiles that they can't defend against.
Speaker 3: This will make Ukrainian high value targets, like as we go,
Speaker 3: especially into the winter months, their power grids, very vulnerable
Speaker 3: to Russian attack. And once those high value targets start
Speaker 3: to fall because they can't defend them, this makes the
Speaker 3: defense of Ukraine more and more complex and or difficult.
Speaker 3: Presidents Lenzi said it very clearly, any delay direct equal
Speaker 3: civilian casualties, but I think it's even more than that
Speaker 3: these will equal Russian advances on that battlefield.
Speaker 1: Very dire situation. Thank you so much for your comments.
Speaker 2: This morning, you have a wonderful day.
Speaker 1: Retired Major General Scott Clancy is a former Director of
Speaker 1: Operations for NORAD.