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<v Speaker 1>Russia has attacked to cargo ships in the Black Sea

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<v Speaker 1>near the southwestern Ukrainian city of Odessa. You can see

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<v Speaker 1>one of those ships out there is on fire. It

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<v Speaker 1>was hit by a drone. Russians Defense Ministry says the

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<v Speaker 1>vessels were carrying military goods. Ukraine says a shiploaded with

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<v Speaker 1>wheat was hit in Odessa and that it was sailing

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<v Speaker 1>under the Guinea Bisou flag. It's not clear yet if

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<v Speaker 1>those two incidents are connected. For more on this situation

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine, we've reached retired Major General Scott Clancy in Ottawa.

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<v Speaker 1>He's a former director of operations for NORAD. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for making the time this morning, Scott. Two nights ago

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<v Speaker 1>there was a ferocious attack on Kiev, a barrage of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight missiles one hundred and fifteen drones, and reports

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<v Speaker 1>out of Ukraine suggest that none of those missiles were

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<v Speaker 1>intercepted because Ukraine is running low on on interceptors. How

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<v Speaker 1>dire is the situation for that munition in that.

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<v Speaker 2>Country, It's very significant.

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<v Speaker 3>In all air defense systems, you have to have layered defenses,

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<v Speaker 3>things that will deal with the multiple threats like the

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<v Speaker 3>drones as well as the ballistic missiles. In what's happened

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<v Speaker 3>in the evolution of the air defense battle around Ukraine

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<v Speaker 3>is that they're running out of the interceptors, so not

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<v Speaker 3>the launchers of Patriot systems, the actual missiles that they

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<v Speaker 3>have to launch, so none of those ballistic missiles are intercepted.

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<v Speaker 3>And Russia is picking up on this, and that's why

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<v Speaker 3>they've almost increased by eighty three percent or almost doubled

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<v Speaker 3>the amount of ballistic missiles they're using amongst their attacks,

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<v Speaker 3>because they know they can get after the high value

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<v Speaker 3>targets inside of Ukraine. President Zelenski is making his strongest

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<v Speaker 3>pitch yet. He said that only one third of what

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<v Speaker 3>was delivered last year on these interceptors has been delivered

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<v Speaker 3>this year. And when he visited President Trump on the

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<v Speaker 3>twenty eighth of July, made a pitch not just for

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<v Speaker 3>more donations, but a switch to providing licenses so that

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<v Speaker 3>he can produce those missiles in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet we're hearing from White House reporting that President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has gotten cooled off on the whole idea of

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine making its own interceptors. And besides, that would take

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<v Speaker 1>years to fulfill, wouldn't.

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<v Speaker 3>It, So it could but it would be under the

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<v Speaker 3>control of the Ukrainians, so as fast as they can move,

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<v Speaker 3>then they would be able to do it.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is about a sovereign capability.

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<v Speaker 3>Canada knows a little bit something about that, as we

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<v Speaker 3>try to maneuver so that our supply chains aren't completely

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<v Speaker 3>at the mercy of the United States either.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a lot of pushback.

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<v Speaker 3>One of Ukraine's biggest offsets here is that they're producing

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<v Speaker 3>counter drone technologies that the United States is using to

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<v Speaker 3>protect their bases in the Middle East as well as

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<v Speaker 3>some of their Middle Eastern allies. So this kind of

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<v Speaker 3>licensing is is a good quid pro quote, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>not and the best interest of Lockheed Martin and their

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<v Speaker 3>profit margins, and that's why President Trump is pushing back.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, and it also it appears that, of course the

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<v Speaker 1>response from the US on missiles and on interceptors in

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine is very inconsistent. And we're looking at a summer

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<v Speaker 1>where you say, Russia is recognizing this gap. So what

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<v Speaker 1>is Ukraine to do in the short term.

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<v Speaker 3>That's going to be very difficult, and it's indicative of

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<v Speaker 3>how the West has dealt with this entire conflict. If

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<v Speaker 3>we had given and I say NATO as well as Canada,

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<v Speaker 3>the United States, everyone had given Ukraine all of the

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<v Speaker 3>capabilities to execute their complete defense at the outset of

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<v Speaker 3>this war four years ago. It would be a very

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<v Speaker 3>different conflict today. But even today, we don't give them

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<v Speaker 3>or enable them to have all of the long range

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<v Speaker 3>strike capabilities to go after the ballistic missile systems of

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<v Speaker 3>Russia so that they can take the fight to the

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<v Speaker 3>Russian homeland. We give them a portion of their defense

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<v Speaker 3>systems that are required, but not everything.

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<v Speaker 2>We're either all in with this ally or we're not.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think we've demonstrated all our NATO countries we're

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<v Speaker 3>not all in with this.

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<v Speaker 1>Switching war zones for a minute here, as I have

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<v Speaker 1>you on munitions, there have been numerous reports that the

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<v Speaker 1>US is running low on its missiles because of the

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<v Speaker 1>month's long war in Iran. Do you think those reports

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<v Speaker 1>are accurate? Of course, Trump has fired back as recently

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<v Speaker 1>as this morning saying that that's not true. What sense

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<v Speaker 1>are you getting of the stockpile situation for the US?

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<v Speaker 3>So the supply chains of the United States and its

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<v Speaker 3>military have been under attack for a significant amount of time.

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<v Speaker 3>When I say under attack, I mean because they've been

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<v Speaker 3>depleting them at unprecedented levels, and whether that's twelve months

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<v Speaker 3>ago or six months ago with an initial volley of

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian missiles, the desire to protect and assist Israel in

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<v Speaker 3>multiple occasions as the Iranians try to come at them,

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<v Speaker 3>their retracted conflict in the Middle East, and the desire

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<v Speaker 3>to at least deliver some capabilities to the Ukrainians.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been predicted for a few years.

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<v Speaker 3>Now that the United States is going to meet up

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<v Speaker 3>with a supply chain problem because the demand cannot meet

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<v Speaker 3>the production of the US big especially the big defense contractors.

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<v Speaker 3>One of the reasons why President Zelenski is saying license me,

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<v Speaker 3>I will produce an at pace because he's up against

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<v Speaker 3>the wall. His wall is an existential wall for his country.

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<v Speaker 3>You're just dealing with profit margins.

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<v Speaker 2>And things like this.

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<v Speaker 1>And it appears from reporting that Russia is getting a

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<v Speaker 1>supply chain ally in North Korea and China. So what

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<v Speaker 1>are we seeing going into the fall and winter concerning

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<v Speaker 1>the munition's capability in Ukraine to fight back?

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<v Speaker 3>So what I say about the advent of the North

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<v Speaker 3>Koreans and the Chinese and their support to this conflict.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that makes Russia's war of attrition in Ukraine actually

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<v Speaker 3>a winning strategy. And what we would have thought of

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<v Speaker 3>before is you know, you're never going to win an

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<v Speaker 3>attritionist war with those supply chains at play, you can

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<v Speaker 3>North Korea is going to be delivering a big portion

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<v Speaker 3>of a missile battalion into the Russian periphery around one

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<v Speaker 3>of the Russian missile brigades of kN twenty three and

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four missiles. Those ballistic missiles will have the same

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<v Speaker 3>present Ukraine with the same problems that the missiles the

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<v Speaker 3>other evening presented. More ballistic missiles that they can't defend against.

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<v Speaker 3>This will make Ukrainian high value targets, like as we go,

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<v Speaker 3>especially into the winter months, their power grids, very vulnerable

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<v Speaker 3>to Russian attack. And once those high value targets start

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<v Speaker 3>to fall because they can't defend them, this makes the

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<v Speaker 3>defense of Ukraine more and more complex and or difficult.

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<v Speaker 3>Presidents Lenzi said it very clearly, any delay direct equal

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<v Speaker 3>civilian casualties, but I think it's even more than that

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<v Speaker 3>these will equal Russian advances on that battlefield.

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<v Speaker 1>Very dire situation. Thank you so much for your comments.

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<v Speaker 2>This morning, you have a wonderful day.

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<v Speaker 1>Retired Major General Scott Clancy is a former Director of

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<v Speaker 1>Operations for NORAD.