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Speaker 1: We are live. Welcome to the Blitz.

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Speaker 2: Free plays for Week six in college football coming right up.

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If you are watching us live here on the Wage

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Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now,

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because any game you want to talk about, we'll be

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happy to do. So all you gotta do is comment

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down below and we'll answer. I'll let you know right

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now we are definitely talking about Vanderbilt at Alabama, Iowa

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State at Cincinnati, Texas at Florida, Texas Tech at Houston.

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Speaker 1: And Miami Florida at Florida State.

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Speaker 2: Here to help me, as always is the Penn himself,

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Ralph Michaels. Of course here now. Usually sitting in the

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third chair is Ross Benjamin. Unfortunately, Ross a little bit

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under the weather this week. Get well soon, buddy, but

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never fear. We have a lot of nil money. You

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may not know that, but we do have a lot

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of nil money here at the Blitz. So we hit

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the portal and we brought in one of the best

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transfers you could buy, the great Steve Merrill joining the

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program of Steve.

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Speaker 1: It's been a very long time since we've talked.

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Speaker 3: How are you doing, Brian?

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Speaker 4: Are you flipping the image why do you get your

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W on the non logo side.

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Speaker 3: My mine's on the right, minds on the right side?

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Is yours on the left?

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Speaker 1: Mine's on the left right.

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Speaker 4: Yes, it did our shirts different, Ralph, don't feel bad

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when you eventually get yours.

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Speaker 3: You might get let.

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Speaker 5: At least put a W on it, because I feel

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left out.

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Speaker 4: The blitz sponsored by a Way to Talk TV and

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the Nike. So here we go look part of that,

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and I'll you know, you might not understand that this

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nil money works, but I'm supposed to eventually see some

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of that.

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Speaker 3: But I do.

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Speaker 4: Appreciate the offer. Check it in the mails. He's definitely

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in the mail. You're getting my current address.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say you're still living in Wisconsin. Right,

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Everything's on its way.

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Speaker 2: Okay, anyway, guys, uh, let's talk about the sec here.

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Let's get it going, Ralph. I always try to shamelessly

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impress you with trends every week, and you being the

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trend guy, and I got one for you here for

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this Vanderbilt Alabama game. Talked about it on the midweek

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edition of the Power Five. Lower ranked teams in Top

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twenty five matchups this year twelve and three straight up

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thirty in two against the spread. I was chatting with

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a buddy during the week and we were thinking hypothesizing

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Ralph that perhaps the fact that lower ranked teams are

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having success in these kind of matchups is because the

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AP doesn't really know what they're doing anymore, and that

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the pole is pretty bad. Your thoughts on that assessments

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and your thoughts on the trend in general that lower

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ranked teams have been having success in top twenty five matchups.

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That obviously applies to Bandy this week down in Tuscaloosa.

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Speaker 5: Again, we know the AP pole is a joke and

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you can find advantages. Like you said, you know, if

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you're an undefeated team, you end up there. When you lose,

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you drop down few. It doesn't matter who you've played,

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So there is there is something to be said about that.

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But you know, again I am I am on Bama here.

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There's no question. You know, you can look at Vanderbilt

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and they're a great story. I did look up teams

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that are an away dog or four or more with

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zero losses from game five on, so you know, you

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don't know if the team is a real undefeated team

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or not until you played a few conference games, so

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we're going to learn about, you know, Vandy quite a bit.

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But those teams with zero losses and as an away

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dog of four more from game five and later sixteen

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and twenty eight thirty six point four percent. And let's remember,

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revenge is such an overused term in college football. It

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is legitimate revenge when you are a top ten team

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and you lose as a three touchdown favorite, you know,

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to Vanderbilt last year, and teams off a loss as

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a conference away favorite, top ten team seventeen and seven

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when they're a home favorite in that revenge role seventy

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three percent. So I look at it, but I look

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at Vandy in this. You know, Diego Pavilla is he's

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a game winner. I mean, he's exciting. He is a

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guy who's leading the team in passing and in rushing.

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He has four hundred and ninety four rush yards six

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point one yards per carry. But here's my concern. Dandy's

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d's they faced FBS opponents ranked one, thirty five, one fifth,

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sixty eight, and forty six. Bama is nineteen past defenses

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Paveya has faced number one, twenty five, number eighty one,

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number seventy eight, number thirty six, Bama is number two.

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Bama runs this and runs them out the door, covers

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this double dig dispread.

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Speaker 2: All right, Ralph coming in hot there. He likes Bama,

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says that trend maybe takes a step back. I will

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say this, Steve A. Diego Pavia, he has been great

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as an underdog. He's been a game changer for this

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Vanderbilt program. On Belivia has five outright upsets since becoming

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the quarterback of the Commodores. Yes, fis nine to two

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ats as a dog since coming to Nashville, including five

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a perfect five and zero on the road. They are

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on the road here. But to Ralph's point, I remember

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it was only a few weeks ago we were here

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on the program. It was like before their first game,

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before they lost to Florida State, we were all talking

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up Alabama as a national championship contender, that we throw

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that ticket away when they lose to Florida State. Now,

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all of a sudden, I'll be honestly, I got Alabama

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power rate as the second best team of the country.

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Speaker 1: How do you look at this game?

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Speaker 3: Interesting?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say, we'll learn a lot more

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about Bama. You know, I did a video for the

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Georgia Obama game midweek, and then I said, I'd like

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to know that Florida State Virginia result because we'll see

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if Florida State's for real. And then that transitive property

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says was Alabama for real? Because you know, Bama giving

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up thirty one points the Florida State didn't look very good,

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considering the Seminals scored sixteen or less in each of

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their final ten games against FBS opponents last year. But

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then after the next couple weeks in Florida State scored

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one hundred and eighty points in three games, it looked

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pretty good. I do think Bama's for real. This is

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obviously a focused spot. Form Normally it would not be

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a focused spot. It'd be a terrible spot after the

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big Georgia game and then playing as a double digit

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favorite against Vandy. But they will not overlook Vanderbilt this week.

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I always rely on my power ratings. My ten thousand

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game simulation favors Alabama by fourteen in this one. Current

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line is ten and a half, so I do lean

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Bama would like it more at ten or less. I'd

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say there's a three to four percent chance they win

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by exactly ten points. It's a key number. I actually

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rate Vanderbilt is the better offense right now in my

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power ratings, but Bama the better defense, and I think

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that'll be the difference in this game when all is

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said and done. Good friend of mine, Daniel Owens, I

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coach with him. He's a Virginia Tech alum. He goes

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to all the games. He was at the Vandy game

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a few weeks ago. He saw Virginia Tech blew that

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ten to nothing lead and then get outscored by like

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thirty four points in a row. Vanderbilt is a legit offense.

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They're explosive. Over might be worth a looking this game

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for that reason as well, and that Bama does come

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a little bit flat. I think that offense shows more

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on the defensive side of the football. So maybe hedge

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a little bit if you like Alabama minus ten and

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a half, as I do, hedge it a little bit.

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Maybe with the over fifty five and a half as well.

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Speaker 1: Ralph, I saw you waving the pat You have something

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to add there.

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Speaker 5: I do just to quantify the Vanderbilt schedule with the defense,

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as I gave you, Alabama has played the number five schedule.

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Vanderbilt has played the number one hundred and seven schedule,

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so take their season at date stats with a grain

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of salt.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, Steve mentioned something about this usually

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being a how this could easily be a letdown spot

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for BAMA coming off the Georgia win. But guys, keep

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in mind what happened when they played Vanderbilt last year.

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They lost to Vanderbilt, so they're not going to take

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Vanderbilt lightly here. And that game was in Nashville last year.

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And you talk about value. When these teams met last year,

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Alabama closed minus twenty three and a half on the road. Now,

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as Steve mentioned their minus ten and a half at home.

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It's interesting, Steve that you mentioned liking Alabama by two

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touchdowns of this game because the number open thirteen and

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a half. Vandy's taking money down to the current price

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at ten and a half. I would you know, the

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value is kind of on you know, while the trend

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favors Vandy, the value does seem to be on Bama.

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By the way, last how many visits here, eleven visits?

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Vandy has lost in Tuscaloos, so they have not scored

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more than ten points in any last five. But they

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do have Bobby of this time, which should be a

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little different. All right, guys, keep those questions coming. I

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see several already coming in. Let's go to Maryland and Washington.

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Jacob Hefner, he wants to know why are the bookmakers

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disrespecting Maryland? Forget taking the points? Give me the terp

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straight up at home against Washington Ralph. I'll say this,

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Washington coming off a game against Ohio State where they

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probably played better than the final score indicated. There were

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some penalties that I thought should have gone against him.

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Speaker 1: That did that.

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Speaker 2: They for you know, more than a half they were

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in that game with the Ohio State. They took a

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lot of money Washington did early in the week against

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the buck Eyes. Maryland is interesting because they usually fall

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flat on their face when the conference schedule starts. What

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do you think here about this game Maryland at Washington.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know the reason for bookmakers, as he puts it,

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or disrespect in Maryland. Let's see, they played FAU Northern Illinois, Townsend,

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and Wisconsin. So I'll tell you this. I do like

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looking at Sagrin's strength of schedule, the reason being, he

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adds in the FBS and the FCS teams, so you

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get a legitimate strength to schedule. And this may be

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the lowest number on the board. You can't quote me

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on this, but there are one hundred and thirty six

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FBS teams. They have Maryland as the number one hundred

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and seventy sixth schedule, so that means at least forty

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FCS teams have played a stronger schedule than Maryland, and

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still they're only number fifty five at plus sixty eight

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yards per game. Washington has played one hundred and ten

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better spots number sixty four schedule. They are number twenty

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one in yards per game difth. They're plus one hundred

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and seventy four point five yards per game, and they're

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plus two point four to one yards per play. That

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is number seventeen in the country. Maryland also misleading. They're

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plus seven turnovers. That's one of the highest numbers. So

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when you're going through your schedule and you're putting up

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stats and you win the turnover battle, again, six of

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those came against defau But you look at the Wisconsin game,

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they had a thirty yard edge, they only rushed for

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sixty one yards and two point seven yards per carry

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against Northern Illinois, they only rushed for eighty six yards

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and three point one yards per carry. And this Washington

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defense is legit. Yes, Ohio State scored three fifty seven

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on them, I mean put up three fifty seven, but

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that was basically, you know, the Ohio State average, So

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they did a fine job. I do. I think the

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disrespect for Maryland is legit. I like the Huskies.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Steve, what do you think Washingtons certainly got a

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lot of respect last week against Ohio State and could

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not cash in obviously, But I think I'm with right.

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I think Maryland's gonna lose this game. They're not going

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I think whether or not I want to lay the

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points with Washington a different story. But I don't think

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Maryland's winning here.

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Speaker 4: It's a terrible scheduling spot in my opinion. I mean,

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they're traveling Craws Country. Ralph might have this. When's the

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last time they've ever played in Maryland? If ever, I

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would venture to guess these teams have never played at

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least in Chapel Park, not Chapel Hill College Park, College Park.

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I grew up in Northern Virginia, and I've been away

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for twenty years. I couldn't remember the name. I've been

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to basketball games at College Park. You got a park

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like two miles from these stadium. I can't imagine the

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Huskies have ever played at Maryland. So this is a

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weird setup. And then you're coming off that game. Yes,

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your season's not over because you lose one time, but

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it's still a spotlight game. You only score six points,

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and that's a home game, And now traveling across country

242
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looks like a terrible setup. And then there is line value.

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I think my ten thousand simulation has Washington winning by

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three points on average. I do also rate Maryland as

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the stronger defensive team in this game, Washington the better offense.

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But the bad schedule spot be anterually to see if

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we get seven or more. It's six and a half

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across the board right here on Thursday afternoon, But if

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you check bet online book maker and those are the

250
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Sharper books, I get that there at six and a

251
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half minus fifteen. I would wait, you might get a

252
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plus seven with Maryland by kickoff on Saturday afternoon.

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Speaker 3: I was definitely like the turfs at that point.

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Speaker 5: Okay, Steve says to wait a little bit Ralph you're

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waving to I am going to give back up, Steve

256
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with one point. Last year, the first year in the

257
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Big Ten, they went to Rutgers, they put up five

258
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hundred and twenty one yards, but they lost twenty one

259
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to eighteen. They went to Indiana, they lost thirty one

260
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to seventeen, and they went to Iowa, half the trip

261
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of what Maryland is and they lost forty to sixteen.

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So those three Central and East Coast games on the

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road last year ugly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's been a big talking point in the Big Ten.

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Speaker 2: Obviously at other conferences since at the acc SIS expansion,

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whey of these really really long roadchri Stay tuned, by

267
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the way.

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Speaker 5: Do you guys know what time the game is? Don't

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I don't think a West coach gets hurt fied.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well it's not as bad.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the loon games. I clearly think you look

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to fede the night games. Those kids are used to

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playing at night, so.

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Speaker 1: You know, yeah, up, stay tuned.

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Speaker 2: By the way, my free play at the end of

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the show, of course, we all all give up free play.

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At the end of the show. My free play will

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be on another team. I'll be fading a team making

279
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a long cross country trip, so stay tuned for that,

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all right. We had earlier some comments coming in. A

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Commander in Chief series starts here. Adam, one of our

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top commenters, one of our top contributors here on the

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show each every week, Adam, thank you for tuning in again.

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Speaker 1: Navy air Force.

285
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Speaker 2: He notes the totals in at fifty one and a

286
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half fifty two depending on look defense.

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Speaker 1: Is that bad this year? Is what he wants to know.

288
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Speaker 2: Obviously, the trend has always to bet the under in

289
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these Service Academy games. Steve, what do you think here?

290
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,919
It is a little peculiar to see a total this

291
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high when Air Force is playing Navy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I love that Ralph's on with us right now because

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Ralph knows I ask him each year when I do

295
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my Army Navy video for the up to hit it numbers,

296
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and I've got him somewhere on the computer. Ralph, you

297
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could probably pull them up. Like Brian said, the under

298
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has been a pure play. And what I love about

299
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Ralph's charts is, you know, you can look back over

300
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the last twenty years and see the over unders, and

301
00:13:57,519 --> 00:14:00,519
we used to get twenty fifteen years ago, totals in

302
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the low fifties and it just were easy unders. And

303
00:14:03,279 --> 00:14:05,960
now we've getting totals down in the thirties and they're

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still going under for the most part. And for those

305
00:14:08,159 --> 00:14:11,159
that are new viewers, those are new to college football handicapping.

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00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,200
The reason we say the under is a blind play

307
00:14:13,279 --> 00:14:17,120
in the Service academy games is because Army, Navy, Air Force,

308
00:14:17,159 --> 00:14:19,120
and the Marines, if they had a football team, would

309
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,919
all run the triple option because they have to do

310
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more with less. They have smaller, undersized linemen and when

311
00:14:25,279 --> 00:14:26,720
you can't go head to head with the team, you

312
00:14:26,799 --> 00:14:28,480
have to do something gimmicky, and they still run the

313
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triple option. And when you're running the ball NonStop keeps

314
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the clock moving. That's part of it. You also don't

315
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get as many big plays. You're not getting the quick

316
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scores of seventy yard touchdown passes. But the main reason

317
00:14:38,679 --> 00:14:41,679
it works with the Service academies playing each other is

318
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because the defenses are more used to stopping the offenses

319
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because they see the option in practice. And it's a

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00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,159
trend that's been well over seventy almost eighty percent of

321
00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,600
times over the past couple decades. Just blindly playing the

322
00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:57,120
under and Air Force Navy Army, Navy, Army, air Force,

323
00:14:57,159 --> 00:14:58,679
however you want to mix it. When they match up,

324
00:14:58,679 --> 00:15:01,559
it's under or pass. I have been passing in recent

325
00:15:01,639 --> 00:15:04,039
years because the lines have been inflated. This one is

326
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,039
not the case. Fifty two to fifty two and a half.

327
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And by the way, I'm looking at the odds live

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your stream right now, one fifteen Eastern Live Thursday on

329
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wager Talk TV, and that total is lighting up. It's

330
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,360
jumping around from fifty two to fifty two and a half.

331
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,440
At fifty one's the key number. Got a three percent

332
00:15:18,519 --> 00:15:21,480
chance of game lands exactly on fifty one under a

333
00:15:21,519 --> 00:15:23,480
pass for me in this one, unless we're missing something.

334
00:15:23,519 --> 00:15:25,039
I don't think the teams are gonna start airing it

335
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:25,840
out all of a sudden.

336
00:15:26,399 --> 00:15:28,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I don't mean this step on Ralph's toes here, Ralph,

337
00:15:28,799 --> 00:15:30,240
I'll send it to you next. But it is since

338
00:15:30,279 --> 00:15:32,759
two thousand and five, I've got unders in these Service

339
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Academy games at forty.

340
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Speaker 1: Six twelve and two.

341
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Speaker 2: So you've made a lot of money if you'd invent

342
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,559
the unders of those games again forty six to twelve

343
00:15:39,559 --> 00:15:42,759
to two. But to the commoner's point. Air Forces defense

344
00:15:43,039 --> 00:15:44,759
has been bad this year. They're four and oh to

345
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the over coming into this game.

346
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Speaker 3: So yeah, Brian, real quick on that.

347
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,120
Speaker 4: I'm looking at the numbers now the last three games

348
00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,320
they've given up two eighty seven, three ten, four point

349
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fifty seven passing yards.

350
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Speaker 3: You know. It's like, are we too worried about that

351
00:15:56,399 --> 00:15:56,879
in this game?

352
00:15:56,919 --> 00:16:00,879
Speaker 4: So that's another reason you really have to dig in deeper, ye, Ralph,

353
00:16:00,879 --> 00:16:02,159
your thoughts on this one.

354
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 5: Again. I looked at Steve numbers that were Academy games

355
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,279
with forty seven or higher. Yeah, six and twenty three,

356
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:16,679
so seventy nine percent to the under. So we haven't

357
00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,279
seen many. But it's simple for me again, I am

358
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,679
not going to bet it over in it. I don't

359
00:16:21,679 --> 00:16:25,200
care how good the offenses look, you know, so it's

360
00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,879
under a lean, but I am worried about Air Force

361
00:16:28,919 --> 00:16:33,039
what they've given up lately. And we also see air

362
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,039
Force has been sacked six times. I mean that's massive.

363
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,840
That's nine point two percent. They throw on the ball

364
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,919
only sixty five times, they've been sacked six times. That's

365
00:16:41,919 --> 00:16:44,279
almost one out of every time. Ten times you go

366
00:16:44,399 --> 00:16:48,320
back maybe one stack, you know, on forty five passes.

367
00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:53,960
But I just look at the rush games Navy on

368
00:16:54,039 --> 00:16:57,639
offense rushing six point five yards per carry, on defense

369
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,919
three point zero, air force five point one and four

370
00:17:01,919 --> 00:17:04,680
point eight. So we have a five point one air

371
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,240
force offense against the three point zero defense edge Navy,

372
00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,319
and we have a six point five offense versus a

373
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,640
four point eight defense edge Navy. Again, where to lay

374
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,000
double digits in this kind of service academy? But I

375
00:17:18,039 --> 00:17:19,680
do like Navy and would lean under.

376
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:21,359
Speaker 3: Okay, there we go.

377
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,839
Speaker 1: Remember Navy obviously, still they're in the American.

378
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,759
Speaker 2: Obviously the American has that prize still dangling of the

379
00:17:27,839 --> 00:17:30,920
G five playoff spot there as well. I mean, this

380
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,240
is obviously not a conference game, but still you don't

381
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:36,279
want to drop anything if you are a G five team.

382
00:17:36,839 --> 00:17:41,039
Michigan State Nebraska, let's talk about this here big time

383
00:17:41,039 --> 00:17:44,680
that we'll get back to our rundown proper. Adam likes

384
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,079
the over forty nine, but can't decide on the side

385
00:17:48,079 --> 00:17:50,200
eleven and a half twelve and a half.

386
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,559
Speaker 1: Maybe we want to help him here. I like Nebraska

387
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:53,559
in this game.

388
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,680
Speaker 2: Look, we know they struggle in close games, but this

389
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:00,799
is a game where obviously the oddsmakers expecting it. They're

390
00:18:00,799 --> 00:18:02,960
expecting a double Edgit win. I think Nebraska is clearly

391
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,920
the better team. I would sign with the court Huskers.

392
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 3: Steve.

393
00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 4: How about you, Yeah, we'll start off with my my simulation.

394
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,759
I've got Nebraska on average winning by sixteen and a

395
00:18:10,759 --> 00:18:13,720
half points. I've got them as the better offense and

396
00:18:13,799 --> 00:18:16,200
defensive team. The defensive edge is their biggest edge in

397
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,599
this game. And you point out, you know, a spot

398
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,640
in which they probably have some motivation, Brian to win

399
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,720
by margin here and then, as we saw Oregon do

400
00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:25,759
against Michigan State this season, it is possible to do so.

401
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,920
This Michigan State team is a lot weaker than recent additions.

402
00:18:29,759 --> 00:18:32,200
They did get the cover last week by losing by

403
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,599
just fourteen points against USC. Otherwise they've been a fay team.

404
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,559
Nebraska or pass for me, and I do think we

405
00:18:38,599 --> 00:18:41,599
get some line value, Ralph.

406
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,839
Speaker 5: Thanks for bringing that up, Steve. I was on USC

407
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,039
last week and they put up three hundred and thirty

408
00:18:46,039 --> 00:18:49,039
seven yards, but I think sixty came on that touchdown

409
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,119
pass with two minutes to go to get him that

410
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,920
backdoor cover. Again, they allowed Boston College four hundred and

411
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,240
fifty seven yards they allowed USC five hundred and twenty

412
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:02,920
three yards. Now they're playing another road game, and you know,

413
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:07,200
we've had so much hype with Matt Ruhle and Dylan Royola.

414
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,680
But I think it's legit now seventy six percent with

415
00:19:10,759 --> 00:19:12,920
eleven to one ratio. But I do have to preface

416
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,839
against the number one hundred and twenty nine schedule, but

417
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,079
they are number six in yards per game diff and

418
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,559
while they've played a week schedule, I still like to

419
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,839
quantify how well they've done by giving you their rank

420
00:19:28,839 --> 00:19:31,559
compared to what those opponents average in the other game.

421
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,519
So on offense, they are number nineteen in the country,

422
00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:37,359
averaging one hundred and thirty three yards more than their

423
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,279
opponents normally allow. And on defense they're top ten. They're

424
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,839
number nine, holding those foes to one hundred and sixty

425
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,799
five yards per game under their average. By the way,

426
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:51,119
Michigan State number seventy nine and number fifty nine on

427
00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:55,680
offense and defense. I do like Nebraska. I do believe

428
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,319
the hype this year because I am a big Matt

429
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,440
roll fan. If you look at his progressions from Temple

430
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,400
from season one to season two to season three, same

431
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,640
thing at Baylor, from season one to season two to

432
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,559
season three. We are in season three of Matt Ruhl.

433
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:11,240
I am a Cornhuskers fan.

434
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:13,079
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go.

435
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,799
Speaker 2: Let's some love for Nebraska, Adam says Glad I asked,

436
00:20:17,799 --> 00:20:20,200
did not expect a consensus there. Let's go back to

437
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,599
our Rundown guys, because we've got some questions coming in

438
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:26,160
on games that we knew we would be talking about here, guys,

439
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,200
any other games that you're thinking of, Hey, we want

440
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,400
your guys' thoughts on it. Feel free to keep fired away.

441
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,039
We'll get the Johnny. We'll get to your question on

442
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:37,000
tonight's game, Sam Houston State and New Mexico State to

443
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,359
college football really taking a backseat to the Major League

444
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,880
Baseball playoffs in the NFL. Then I bets Okay, it's

445
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:46,200
a game and somebody's gonna cash there. Let's talk Texas

446
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,000
and Florida. What do you say, because we've had a

447
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,759
number of questions on that one. Colin says, do we

448
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:56,079
just take the under in Texas versus Florida? DJ Lagway

449
00:20:56,119 --> 00:21:00,680
is more injured than people know. I'll say that Floria's

450
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,880
defensive line, we know it's banged up. Anyone who follows

451
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,599
me has followed me Freddy length of time knows that

452
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,160
it's gonna take every ounce of restraint in my body

453
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,160
to not want to bet Florida in this game. I

454
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,519
think that they're a lot better than that record. They

455
00:21:15,519 --> 00:21:19,200
deserved a better fate against both LSU and Miami. But

456
00:21:19,279 --> 00:21:22,720
you do have to wonder, Steve about them, what's going

457
00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:25,039
on up here in the brain? Are they starting to

458
00:21:25,039 --> 00:21:28,400
get mentally checked out? Is the Billy napi Or tenure

459
00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:32,000
in Gainesville at fourteen minutes and fifty nine seconds, if

460
00:21:32,039 --> 00:21:35,359
you will, arch MANNINGO has not looked good. So to

461
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,880
the commoner's point the under it seems logical. It seems

462
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,519
like a logical bet at face.

463
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 4: Value, sentially about arch Manning. You know, I was thinking this.

464
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,079
I even said it to some people in the season began.

465
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,079
As I'm watching that Ohio State game in Week one,

466
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,519
I was like, it's amazing that someone who's considered like

467
00:21:49,559 --> 00:21:51,960
the best quarterback in the country coming in is willing

468
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,640
to sit two two and a half years, you know,

469
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,279
to actually get some playing time. And I did have

470
00:21:57,319 --> 00:21:59,839
the passing idea that maybe he's not as good as

471
00:21:59,839 --> 00:22:02,200
it everybody thanks why he's staying there and he's getting

472
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,440
paid while he's doing it. Starting to think that might

473
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,160
be the case. Maybe he's not a superstar. So we'll see.

474
00:22:07,559 --> 00:22:09,839
But then again, I'm not trusting Florida. I used the

475
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,920
Virginia Tech reference earlier and once again, my good friend

476
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,039
Daniel Loans he went to the NC State game last

477
00:22:15,079 --> 00:22:17,079
week and he told me nine and a half ten,

478
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,799
all these guys were opting out, they've quit on the season.

479
00:22:19,839 --> 00:22:22,680
Well what happened is that the guys didn't play and

480
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,279
they won outright as a doll because the guys that

481
00:22:24,319 --> 00:22:25,759
wanted to play were in the lineup. You got the

482
00:22:25,759 --> 00:22:29,279
intim coach there. So my point is, I'm not trusting

483
00:22:29,319 --> 00:22:31,319
Florida yet. I do think, Brian, you're gonna get your

484
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,920
chance to play Florida here at some point this season.

485
00:22:34,799 --> 00:22:36,559
But as you love, as you know, I love to say,

486
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,799
don't try to catch a falling knife, and the Gators

487
00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:41,160
right now might be that falling knife.

488
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:42,799
Speaker 3: They are getting some extra line value.

489
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 4: But you really got to handicap this game a little

490
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,599
bit differently and read between the lines and like, are

491
00:22:47,599 --> 00:22:49,440
they going to show up and ready to play? With

492
00:22:49,599 --> 00:22:53,000
that said, my simulation favors Texas by just three points.

493
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,759
Simulation doesn't do a really good job of factoring in

494
00:22:55,799 --> 00:22:57,920
the intangibles, such as if players are going to play

495
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,720
hard or neither, you know, with the coach on maybe

496
00:22:59,759 --> 00:23:02,279
the way out but it's Florida or pass for me

497
00:23:02,319 --> 00:23:03,880
based online value. But I just don't know if I

498
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:05,599
want to catch that falling nine quite yet.

499
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, both teams coming off buys. That's worth noting. And

500
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,640
you know something that we can quantify is this and

501
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,599
this again, Ralph would lead to an idea of playing

502
00:23:16,599 --> 00:23:21,559
the under Texas yards per play number one defense of

503
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,680
the country Florida's offense yards per play number one hundred

504
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,319
and eighteen. So it may be tough with an injured

505
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,920
DJ Lagway for the Gators. I mean, I think we

506
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,519
would all agree, the three of us everyone in the

507
00:23:33,519 --> 00:23:36,119
comment section, that you know it's gonna be tough for

508
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:36,839
the Gators to move.

509
00:23:36,759 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 1: The ball to score in this game.

510
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 5: Well, Florida has played the number two toughest schedule, so

511
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,960
you know, you look at their stats, they're number sixty

512
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,319
four plus forty four yards per game despite being one

513
00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:49,599
and three. Why well, let's see, has something to do

514
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,960
with turning the ball over at USF minus one, minus

515
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,519
four turnovers in the five interception game at LSU, back

516
00:23:56,559 --> 00:23:59,119
to back road games, then having a good to Miami

517
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,519
putting up one hundred forty one yards. It doesn't matter

518
00:24:03,599 --> 00:24:05,400
how much I like Florida. It's just a team I'm

519
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,039
not going to back. But I have no interest in

520
00:24:07,079 --> 00:24:10,160
backing Texas. I did take a look. I of course,

521
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,839
we have one of the biggest games in the SEC

522
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,000
on deck, Red River Rivalry, you know, next week. So

523
00:24:16,759 --> 00:24:19,720
I looked at what Texas has done prior to Oklahoma.

524
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,279
They actually had covered three straight games last year. Though

525
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,440
the game before Oklahoma they were thirty eight and a

526
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,279
half point favored against Mississippi State, they only won by

527
00:24:30,319 --> 00:24:33,480
twenty two thirty five to ten. But I did go

528
00:24:33,559 --> 00:24:36,000
look at a system as well. If you are a

529
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:41,160
top ten team playing an unranked team with a top

530
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,240
ten team on deck, this surprise the heck got of me.

531
00:24:44,319 --> 00:24:47,839
Since two thousand and eight two forty three and one

532
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,240
seventy two, that is fifty nine percent against the spread.

533
00:24:51,519 --> 00:24:54,039
So those people that say, oh, there's no way I

534
00:24:54,079 --> 00:24:56,079
can back Texas because they're going to be looking ahead

535
00:24:56,079 --> 00:24:58,759
to playing a top ten team opponent that has not

536
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,759
historically been the case. Those teams have performed well. Obviously,

537
00:25:02,839 --> 00:25:04,920
if you're a top ranked team this late in the season,

538
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,359
you're a well coached team and you are focused. So

539
00:25:09,519 --> 00:25:13,039
I expected some negative look ahead numbers. Found exactly the

540
00:25:13,079 --> 00:25:14,720
opposite of what I thought we'd see.

541
00:25:15,039 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: That's always interesting when I do when that happens.

542
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 4: Go ahead, Steve, I was gonna say, Ralph, I love

543
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,480
that because back in like the early to mid nineties,

544
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,640
when I started almost thirty years ago, and we didn't

545
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,559
have the database capabilities we have now, I did this

546
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,000
by hand almost I did an NBA back test on that,

547
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,200
and I was blown away as well that teams normally

548
00:25:31,279 --> 00:25:33,319
played pretty well when they had a big game on deck,

549
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,599
and they're again it's tough to quantify ahead of time.

550
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 3: I love how you use the ranking.

551
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,599
Speaker 4: That's a very quantifiable thing because you can say is

552
00:25:38,599 --> 00:25:40,759
the team ranked is next week's team ranked as of now?

553
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,000
But that held up in the NBA thirty some years

554
00:25:43,039 --> 00:25:45,359
ago when I first tested it. And my point is

555
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,720
in any sports, I don't use the look ahead angle much.

556
00:25:47,759 --> 00:25:49,720
In handicap, and I used to let down angle a

557
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,279
lot more. And you know, I've talked about that here

558
00:25:52,319 --> 00:25:54,319
with Washington, they're off a tough loss. And by the way,

559
00:25:54,519 --> 00:25:57,039
from new viewers, I think letdowns happen more after tough

560
00:25:57,079 --> 00:26:00,200
losses than big wins. Everyone always talks about, you know,

561
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,359
celebrating the big upset when it can happen if you

562
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,759
overlook a team, But it also energizes you, especially nineteen

563
00:26:05,759 --> 00:26:08,160
twenty year old kids. Whereas you score only six points

564
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,759
in a huge home game last week and now travel

565
00:26:10,799 --> 00:26:13,240
cross country to Maryland, like we were talking about Washington.

566
00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 3: Those are the letdown spots that worry me, wore. But

567
00:26:16,079 --> 00:26:16,599
I love that.

568
00:26:16,759 --> 00:26:18,559
Speaker 4: Back test Ralph because I think it makes a lot

569
00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:20,920
of sense. And here's the reason it makes sense. They

570
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,960
don't look ahead because they might not win next week.

571
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,279
They got to get the win now because they know

572
00:26:24,319 --> 00:26:25,880
next week is not a winnable game. So I think

573
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,720
that's another reason that angle makes a lot of sense.

574
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,079
Speaker 1: All right, that is Texas Florida for you.

575
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 5: There.

576
00:26:32,839 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 2: We're gonna get to Houston hosting Texas Tech in just

577
00:26:36,519 --> 00:26:39,079
a minute. Butt on halfway through the program, So well,

578
00:26:39,079 --> 00:26:39,720
what do you say?

579
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 1: Three of us will let you know what we've got

580
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:43,640
going on. All of us have got going.

581
00:26:43,519 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 2: On this weekend over at wager talk dot com. It

582
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,279
is another big weekend of action. I will let you on,

583
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,240
guys all before I let these guys talk about they

584
00:26:52,279 --> 00:26:54,319
have I'll let you guys know I have a very

585
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,680
rare five percent max bet going on Saturday. Do not

586
00:26:57,759 --> 00:27:00,480
do these very often on My last five five percent

587
00:27:00,519 --> 00:27:03,680
play was Week two of the NFL season and it

588
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,759
saw the Atlanta Falcons plus the three and a half.

589
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,640
They did not need those that plus the three and

590
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,160
a half as they destroyed the Minnesota Vikings twenty two

591
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:11,640
to six.

592
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 1: So this is our We went.

593
00:27:13,839 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 2: Three and all last year with five percent constable plays,

594
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,400
did lose our first one this year, but very very confident.

595
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,279
This is my strongest controable play this season so far.

596
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,279
So WT dot buzz SLASHVP, go and get it right now, Steve.

597
00:27:28,519 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks Brian. First of all, thank you for having

598
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:31,880
me on. It was my understanding. I'll be on with

599
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,400
Ross Benjamin, so a little discipline. I'm just kidding filling

600
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,680
in for Ross to that. Do appreciate it, it's a joke.

601
00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:39,680
I do appreciate being on a fun show covering some

602
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,079
great in depth analysis here and it's getting me primed

603
00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:44,680
also by the way to do my Top twenty five

604
00:27:44,759 --> 00:27:47,200
videos some other standalone videos here for college football. Those

605
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,240
will be up here the Thursday evening. Also, NFL Fade

606
00:27:50,279 --> 00:27:51,920
the Public will be up a little bit earlier this week.

607
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,119
We're going to try that out to get it to

608
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,000
everybody in advance. It over fifty six thousand views the

609
00:27:56,039 --> 00:27:57,960
last two Sundays on the Fade the Public video and

610
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,279
Fade in the Public has been very profitable so far

611
00:28:00,319 --> 00:28:03,480
this season in the NFL. Speaking of pro football, I've

612
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,319
got two advanced plays up now, also a bonus free

613
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,319
NFL play. I loaded a few early this week because

614
00:28:08,319 --> 00:28:09,400
I really wanted to get in front of some of

615
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,720
these lines, and there is still line value in all

616
00:28:11,759 --> 00:28:13,720
these games, and of course a ton of college football

617
00:28:13,799 --> 00:28:16,839
best bets for this weekend. The Weekend Warrior Pass is

618
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,559
a great way to do it, and Ralph pointed this

619
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,599
out on a show the other day that if you

620
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,240
buy it in advance, you don't have to wait till

621
00:28:22,279 --> 00:28:24,880
Saturday to buy the forty nine dollars Weekend Warrior Special.

622
00:28:25,279 --> 00:28:27,640
Buy it now, you'll get those two advanced NFL plays

623
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,880
which I have locked in loaded, you'll get my college

624
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,200
Football as I start posting them on Thursday and Friday.

625
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,640
Weekend Warrior Pass, as you see on your screen, forty

626
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,720
nine dollars gets you every college and pro football best

627
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,640
bet I released Saturday, Sunday and Monday. If I have

628
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,160
something a little bonus there as well for just forty

629
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,680
nine dollars. One day is thirty nine. Why not get

630
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,079
everything for forty nine that's available right now along with

631
00:28:48,119 --> 00:28:50,799
that daily free play Steve merrillwager Talk dot com.

632
00:28:51,279 --> 00:28:53,839
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely the Weekend Warrior Pass. And not only can

633
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:54,240
you take.

634
00:28:54,079 --> 00:28:55,759
Speaker 2: Advantage that with Steve, you could take advantage that with

635
00:28:55,799 --> 00:28:58,519
myself or the man of the middle there on your screen,

636
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,519
mister Ralph, Michael, Ralph, what do you got going on here?

637
00:29:01,519 --> 00:29:02,599
Speaker 3: Though you don't, do.

638
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 5: Not buy my Weekend Warrior guys good. I have a

639
00:29:08,799 --> 00:29:12,440
college football five percent, which are nine to one, but

640
00:29:12,519 --> 00:29:15,000
that is Friday. So for me, you do want the

641
00:29:15,039 --> 00:29:18,039
three day all access to get Friday, Saturday and Sunday,

642
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,000
because then for just twenty dollars more, you are getting

643
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,799
that college football five percent. So a rare instance where

644
00:29:23,839 --> 00:29:26,079
I'm telling you not to buy it from me. College

645
00:29:26,079 --> 00:29:29,079
Football number two since the start of twenty twenty four,

646
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,519
fourteen and seven. This year sixty seven percent College football

647
00:29:33,559 --> 00:29:38,000
five percent nine to one College football and NFL combined

648
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,440
the last two years, number two in the country four

649
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,200
percent best bets in all of football twenty six and

650
00:29:45,279 --> 00:29:48,680
eight seventy seven percent. I will have a strong four

651
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,160
percent teaser. It might even be a five percent. I'm

652
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,920
not quite sure yet. NFL teasers twenty five and six

653
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,400
eighty one percent and NFL teasers rated four percent or

654
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,240
five percent nine and one, as well as sixteen and

655
00:30:03,319 --> 00:30:07,759
two eighty nine percent. Ross. Hopefully you're watching a couple

656
00:30:07,799 --> 00:30:10,559
people are asking Cody. I just saw Cody asked about you.

657
00:30:11,599 --> 00:30:14,920
Ross has been ill under the weather, and I can

658
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,000
tell you this. I want to give Ross a shout out.

659
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,759
There's a lot of people in this industry that would

660
00:30:20,839 --> 00:30:23,359
just keep throwing crap up if they're sick, just to

661
00:30:23,359 --> 00:30:25,160
get a play up and try to get some sales.

662
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,759
Ross just says, listen, I don't want to force plays.

663
00:30:28,039 --> 00:30:30,720
I'm not one hundred percent thinking clearly. I'm just going

664
00:30:30,759 --> 00:30:33,079
to pass for a few days. So I do admire

665
00:30:33,119 --> 00:30:34,759
and that of him, and that's why he's part of

666
00:30:34,839 --> 00:30:37,960
wager talk. And you know the group of handicappers we

667
00:30:38,039 --> 00:30:43,640
have are so responsible towards our viewers and our followers.

668
00:30:43,839 --> 00:30:45,920
I think that's really what sets us apart.

669
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 1: Yes, like we said at the outset, get better soon.

670
00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 5: Ross.

671
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: We know we missed you, and obviously happy, very happy

672
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,359
that Steve was able to step in and do the

673
00:30:53,359 --> 00:30:53,680
show here.

674
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,559
Speaker 1: All right, let's get back to the games, guys. The

675
00:30:56,599 --> 00:30:57,759
games that the people.

676
00:30:57,559 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 2: Want to know about Houston and Tech Tech was asked

677
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,599
about earlier in the show.

678
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,119
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let all of you know.

679
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,359
Speaker 2: If you've been following some of you have been following along,

680
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,240
you may already know this. I have invested in both

681
00:31:11,279 --> 00:31:14,680
of these teams. Actually, if you caught the preseason version

682
00:31:14,799 --> 00:31:17,480
of the Power Five, you know that I said to

683
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,599
bet Houston over six and a half wins. I feel

684
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,680
very good about that bet right now. Bet Another bet

685
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,799
that I made more recently was Texas Tech to win

686
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,480
the Big twelve. I think they are head and shoulders

687
00:31:29,519 --> 00:31:31,240
better than the rest of this conference, and that is

688
00:31:31,279 --> 00:31:34,519
why they are laying double digits on the road to

689
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:39,119
this Houston team. Steve, what do you think tex I

690
00:31:39,119 --> 00:31:40,599
don't want to lay I'll tell you this.

691
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: I like tex Tech. I don't want to lay.

692
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,359
Speaker 2: You can probably count the number of times in one

693
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,440
hand in the last decade that I've laid double digits

694
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,200
with a team on the road in college football. As

695
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:49,799
a matter of fact, this might still have five fingers

696
00:31:49,799 --> 00:31:52,200
if you wanted to count that. But what do you

697
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,519
think Texas Tech? How's their future looking in the Big Twelve?

698
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:57,839
I have them power rated by far as the best

699
00:31:57,839 --> 00:32:00,319
team in this conference, So talk to me about this

700
00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:00,920
this one.

701
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 3: I agree.

702
00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 4: I think they're the better team in this game. And

703
00:32:03,759 --> 00:32:05,440
this line's gotten away from you a bit. I sawt

704
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,559
open ten, even an eight a half, maybe a look

705
00:32:07,559 --> 00:32:10,400
aheadline at some point. It's now eleven and a half,

706
00:32:10,799 --> 00:32:13,400
and I actually my simulation has Texas Tech by just

707
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,440
eight and a half. I do think the home field

708
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,119
is worth something here with the team that's off to

709
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,359
a four to start, as you mentioned with Houston unranked,

710
00:32:19,359 --> 00:32:22,279
I believe still if they pull the upside here, they

711
00:32:22,319 --> 00:32:25,279
will definitely be right next week getting some additional votes.

712
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,000
Texas Tech probably wins this one, but I think you've

713
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,039
missed the number at this point at eleven eleven and

714
00:32:30,039 --> 00:32:32,200
a half, and it does even though it's an in

715
00:32:32,359 --> 00:32:35,759
state game, looks like a tough spot here, a game

716
00:32:35,759 --> 00:32:37,880
that could stay a little bit closer than expected. I'm

717
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,440
not sure Houston could pull the outright win, but I

718
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,519
do think the lines inflated. I would lean towards the

719
00:32:42,559 --> 00:32:45,720
dog here. One thing about Texas Tech. Very good offensive

720
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,160
team on the season, fifty two points a game, ten

721
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,759
and a half yards per play, I'm sorry, seven and

722
00:32:51,759 --> 00:32:53,960
a half yards per play, ten yards per pass. Every

723
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,559
time they throw the ball, they getting a first down

724
00:32:55,599 --> 00:32:59,440
on average. And this Houston pass defense has been fantastic

725
00:32:59,519 --> 00:33:02,319
four point nine. A loud against a punnis at average

726
00:33:02,359 --> 00:33:05,400
is six point seven. So yes, the Houston defense has

727
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,359
been really strong, but they have not faced any offense

728
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:08,640
like this Texas Tech attack.

729
00:33:09,559 --> 00:33:11,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting thing. I mean, that was one

730
00:33:11,359 --> 00:33:12,759
of the reasons I like the over six and a

731
00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:16,519
half ralph pre season. Is this Houston Houston's defense we

732
00:33:16,559 --> 00:33:18,359
could question do they face so far, but going back

733
00:33:18,359 --> 00:33:20,519
to last year, it's been a good defense for Willie

734
00:33:20,519 --> 00:33:24,640
Fritz and this is an interesting matchup here. Adam brought

735
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:29,400
up a good point in our chat here. Houston got

736
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,079
a little lucky last week. They laid an egg early.

737
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,480
They went on the road. It was a Friday night

738
00:33:36,559 --> 00:33:40,440
game in Corvallis against a winless Oregon State team. They

739
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,880
dug themselves an early hole. The Coopers were able to

740
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,680
climb out and win the game. But what do you

741
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,720
think here with Houston hosting Texas Tech in a Big

742
00:33:49,799 --> 00:33:50,920
Big twelve matchup?

743
00:33:54,319 --> 00:33:57,119
Speaker 5: At power ratings right now, the best team in the

744
00:33:57,119 --> 00:34:01,359
Big twelve, I have them at an eighty four with

745
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:06,799
TCU seventy eight. I have them six points better than TCU.

746
00:34:07,079 --> 00:34:11,639
Just to so completely agree with you. This is a game,

747
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,639
another game you have to take with a grain of

748
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:18,360
salt just because of the strengths of schedules. You know, sorry,

749
00:34:18,559 --> 00:34:20,239
you know I should have had this pulled up my

750
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:24,880
secretary sleeping or something. We I talked about Maryland being

751
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:28,360
like one ninety six. Texas Tech is number two hundred

752
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:32,599
and seventeen. That means eighty FCS teams have played better

753
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,679
schedules than Texas Tech. That's why they're number two in

754
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,119
the country plus three hundred and thirty four yards per game.

755
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,480
They're number one in the country at plus at plus

756
00:34:41,519 --> 00:34:46,760
four h five yallards per play, and Houston obviously not

757
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,719
a good schedule either. They're like one hundred, but again

758
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,079
far better than Texas Tech. I really don't have an

759
00:34:54,119 --> 00:34:56,920
opinion here. I would lean the under because both teams

760
00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:01,280
are playing the toughest defenses they faced. I actually would

761
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,079
have said Utah is a better defense than Houston. But

762
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:10,119
so far this year, the most surprised I've been through

763
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,840
five weeks or six weeks wherever we are, was the

764
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:18,320
way Texas Tech manhandled Utah on the road on both

765
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,440
sides of the ball, I mean, rushing for four point

766
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,599
seven and one seventy three, holding them to three point three. Folks,

767
00:35:25,639 --> 00:35:28,159
this is not the air raid Texas Tech team we're

768
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,360
used to. Joey McGuire has done a fantastic job. I

769
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,599
think they spent what twenty six million dollars, so yeah,

770
00:35:35,639 --> 00:35:38,360
money can buy you. This isn't the New York Mets

771
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,039
guys that have that type of banko. I think they

772
00:35:40,039 --> 00:35:42,400
were number two in the NIL this year. They've They've

773
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:46,679
got some big oil alums and they've taken advantage of it.

774
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,280
So lean under. No real opinion on the side for me.

775
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go.

776
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 2: Hopefully that helps you guys out Here's more help is

777
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,480
being asked for guys, as we have an interesting line

778
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:03,199
Cincinnati hosting Iowa State. Iowa State is the fourteenth ranked

779
00:36:03,199 --> 00:36:05,880
team in the country, but they are a slight underdog

780
00:36:06,519 --> 00:36:11,239
to unranked Cincinnati. This would be the second instance this

781
00:36:11,519 --> 00:36:16,199
season of an unranked team being favored over a top

782
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:20,800
twenty five opponent. The first it was last week Arizona State.

783
00:36:21,159 --> 00:36:23,599
Things did not look early for them, but they came

784
00:36:23,639 --> 00:36:29,119
back and did defeat a ranked TCU team. It depends

785
00:36:29,119 --> 00:36:30,719
what number, whether or not they covered for you or not.

786
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:32,320
It's spending when you met the game, if you got

787
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:33,920
if you were lucky enough to get Arizona State minus

788
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,360
two and a half, you covered because of course they

789
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,760
won by three. Some of you may have pushed, but

790
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,519
it's always been Steve kind of you know, a thing

791
00:36:41,559 --> 00:36:45,719
where people look for these spots unranked teams. The odds

792
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,519
makers are telling you something when they got an unranked

793
00:36:47,559 --> 00:36:50,960
team favored over a top twenty five opponent. And Iowa

794
00:36:51,039 --> 00:36:53,480
State in case if you guys missed the news, both

795
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,840
of their starting quarterbacks are out now. They both are injured,

796
00:36:57,119 --> 00:36:59,119
and that is going to be a big loss against

797
00:36:59,159 --> 00:37:02,679
a Cincinnati team that put up six hundred yards of

798
00:37:02,679 --> 00:37:04,519
offense last week, and.

799
00:37:04,599 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 5: They were both all Big twelve last year. Brian, Yes, Man,

800
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,360
you can lose your starting quarterbacks. That's one thing. Losing

801
00:37:11,639 --> 00:37:14,519
multi year starting quarterbacks that are all conference puts it

802
00:37:14,559 --> 00:37:15,599
at a whole different level.

803
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:17,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's interesting the line did not move.

804
00:37:17,639 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: I don't know if people, you know, a lot of

805
00:37:19,519 --> 00:37:22,199
betters haven't that hasn't filtered down to them or not.

806
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,599
But Cincinnati steve put up six hundred yards offense, and

807
00:37:25,639 --> 00:37:28,280
this was one of the craziest I always go through

808
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,440
the recaps and the box scores every week, like I

809
00:37:30,519 --> 00:37:32,599
know you guys do. One of the craziest things I

810
00:37:32,679 --> 00:37:35,320
found last week in count football Cincinnati not only did

811
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,000
they go to Kansas and pull the outright up set

812
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,760
with six hundred yards total offense, they had four touchdowns

813
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,000
called back because of penalties, so they could have scored

814
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,239
even more. I don't know what it says for the

815
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,280
discipline of this Bearcats team, but I think we can

816
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,400
see why they're maybe favored here against Iowa State at home.

817
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can't. You can't fix bad offense. This is

818
00:37:53,679 --> 00:37:57,320
something between coaching and handicapping now for decades that I've

819
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,480
come to realize is like, you know, defense a lot

820
00:37:59,519 --> 00:38:02,960
of times talent, but it's also intensity, it's mindset. You

821
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,000
can't all of a sudden just fix a bad offensive team.

822
00:38:05,039 --> 00:38:07,000
So my point is when you have an explosive offense,

823
00:38:07,039 --> 00:38:09,400
it always catches my eye. Yes, you might lose in shootouts,

824
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,800
but I'll tell you a team that's similar is Virginia.

825
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:15,000
Not my Virginia Cavaliers. They played, yes, my Willy and

826
00:38:15,039 --> 00:38:16,760
Mary Tribe a few weeks ago. I turned the game

827
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:18,760
on on the radio. Mid third quarter. It was fifty

828
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,519
two to seven Virginia at six hundred and twenty five yards.

829
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,760
They were forty away from the all time school record

830
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,480
in the middle of the third quarter, went on to

831
00:38:25,559 --> 00:38:28,280
gain seven hundred yards, put up over six hundred and

832
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,400
some against Stanford, and as we saw last Friday night, Oh,

833
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,639
the Cavaliers are actually for real because they moved against

834
00:38:33,639 --> 00:38:36,719
Florida State also, So I'm not going to discount Cincinnati.

835
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:37,519
Speaker 3: No matter who you're playing.

836
00:38:37,519 --> 00:38:39,679
Speaker 4: When you're putting up six hundred plus yards of offense,

837
00:38:40,079 --> 00:38:42,480
even against Sisters of the Poor, you can move the ball.

838
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,280
And now you've got an Iowa State team that's not

839
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,760
going to be at full strength. That could be a problem.

840
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,519
I'm not sure they can keep up in this game.

841
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:53,079
And I think this is a situation where Cincinnati's offense

842
00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:55,719
is better. Yes, Iowa State has the better defense. But

843
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,000
something else, guys, I'm starting to feel in college football

844
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,400
in recent years is that better offenses be better defenses.

845
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,320
We see that in the playoffs. The championship games are

846
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,119
off at high scoring and I make this game up

847
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,360
Cincinnati by one of my simulation. With the injuries. It's

848
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,599
a little tricky, but if the Bearcats are passed for me,

849
00:39:10,639 --> 00:39:12,880
I think they're gonna explode well offensively in this one.

850
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: Ralph, what do you think?

851
00:39:15,079 --> 00:39:18,599
Speaker 5: I actually agree quite a bit with Steve. I'm just

852
00:39:18,679 --> 00:39:21,840
going to come to a little different result. You know,

853
00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:24,639
Campbell's been a good dog in this price range, an

854
00:39:24,679 --> 00:39:28,159
excellent dog. But I look at Cincinnati. You guys had

855
00:39:28,199 --> 00:39:30,360
talked about the offense and what they've done. They're number

856
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,679
three in the country averaging eight point one yards per play.

857
00:39:34,159 --> 00:39:37,760
You look at Iowa State, and I think you said

858
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,960
this last week Brian, and we agreed. I mean, if

859
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,000
you want to take one team that doesn't deserve to

860
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,360
be ranked being where they are, I mean that's it.

861
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,079
Their entire their entire stat profile is based on the

862
00:39:48,119 --> 00:39:50,880
fifty five to seven win against South Dakota. You play

863
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,440
Kansas State, you get out gained by seventy yards. You

864
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:58,400
play Iowa you only have two hundred and thirty yards

865
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:04,039
of offense, but you win the turnover battle. Arkansas State.

866
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,320
You only have four hundred and fifty two yards against

867
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,000
Arkansas State, and then Arizona you had three hundred and

868
00:40:09,039 --> 00:40:11,679
ninety nine yards. So to me, you look at the

869
00:40:11,679 --> 00:40:15,840
stat profile, their averages on offense number seventy five, their

870
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:19,719
averages on defense number sixty one. Since he does score,

871
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,840
can Iowa State keep it close with rock Obec? I

872
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,199
am not so sure, but I think the way I

873
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,679
would go on this is Cincinnati over twenty six and

874
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:28,599
a half team total.

875
00:40:29,119 --> 00:40:31,679
Speaker 1: Oh I like that look. I like that look. I

876
00:40:31,679 --> 00:40:32,159
will say this.

877
00:40:32,199 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 2: I'll own it, own it we as we always own

878
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:34,800
our losses.

879
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 1: Here on the program.

880
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,199
Speaker 2: I was on Arizona last week against IWA Tate and

881
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,199
that was not a good call in retrospect.

882
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,079
Speaker 1: But I will say this all of you.

883
00:40:41,079 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 2: You know I joked earlier at the top of the

884
00:40:42,519 --> 00:40:45,519
program at setting Steve is nil check. Well, I'll send

885
00:40:45,519 --> 00:40:48,199
all of you watching your CLV Trophy because I gave

886
00:40:48,199 --> 00:40:50,159
that play out in Arizona plus six and a half.

887
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,679
And I don't know if you guys saw this on Saturday,

888
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,119
all the money came in on Arizona. They closed plus

889
00:40:55,159 --> 00:40:57,079
three and a half. You got three points of Clinton

890
00:40:57,119 --> 00:40:58,519
out with the bet loss. So I mean all we

891
00:40:58,519 --> 00:41:01,800
could do was shin a trophy and then red. But still,

892
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,920
I mean people were betting heavily against this Iowa State

893
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,679
team last week and the fact that that happened now

894
00:41:07,679 --> 00:41:11,480
they're a dog to a top twenty an unranked opponent

895
00:41:11,559 --> 00:41:14,800
I think speaks volumes about what's going on in ames.

896
00:41:15,079 --> 00:41:18,440
Good friend of mine watching the show, Clint, you might

897
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,119
be the person that I bet on Texas Tech with

898
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,159
he and I may have some money invested in Texas Tech.

899
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,079
He brings up another game, and this is an interesting

900
00:41:26,119 --> 00:41:29,639
situation because normally we see these When we see these

901
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,559
unranked teams favored over a top twenty five opponent, it's

902
00:41:32,599 --> 00:41:35,719
by three or less. Steve right, it's not huge. I mean,

903
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,960
just the fact that they're favored is noteworthy. Well, do

904
00:41:39,039 --> 00:41:41,599
I have a story to tell about the Virginia Cavaliers

905
00:41:41,599 --> 00:41:44,360
who have climbed into the top twenty five after that

906
00:41:45,079 --> 00:41:48,960
thrilling victory over Florida State, Virginia's number twenty four of

907
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,719
the country. They're getting seven this week at Louisville. This

908
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,960
we usually do not I agree with, but we don't

909
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,039
see unranked teams favored by more than a field goal.

910
00:41:57,559 --> 00:41:59,079
But he likes Louisville still.

911
00:41:59,119 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if I.

912
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,039
Speaker 2: Know that sometimes those money parlays can come back to

913
00:42:04,039 --> 00:42:06,320
bite you, but I almost think Louisville might be a

914
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,679
moneyline parlay piece in This is the way I was

915
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,360
thinking at it, because it is a heavy number delay

916
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,639
with the Cardinals here, especially since they were down big

917
00:42:16,679 --> 00:42:17,840
early to Pitt last week.

918
00:42:18,639 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say, I'm gonna contradict myself in

919
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,039
this one. I always say that letdowns happen more after

920
00:42:23,119 --> 00:42:25,280
tough losses than big wins. Well, this might be the

921
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,800
exception to the rule. I'd be very careful with Virginia

922
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,719
this week. Okay, at craelf's database can test this. When

923
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,440
five thousand fans storm rusts the field and stumple like

924
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,119
thirty of their classmates, what's the result of following. I

925
00:42:37,119 --> 00:42:40,639
mean that that was like a bowl unflowing and the

926
00:42:40,679 --> 00:42:42,880
funny thing is that the play had barely ended. I

927
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,320
mean that that's the play had barely ended. I mean

928
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:46,519
they would have been a mess if they had to

929
00:42:46,519 --> 00:42:48,880
call everyone back. It'd been like Stanford Twine's twenty. But

930
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,519
this looks like a tough scheduleing spot. And as you know,

931
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,559
overtime results teams off of losses and overtime I think

932
00:42:55,599 --> 00:42:58,519
are worse, but just off an overtime game. In general,

933
00:42:58,599 --> 00:43:00,719
you gotta be very careful on college ball because it's

934
00:43:01,199 --> 00:43:03,480
it just uses so much emotion and energy. And that

935
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,519
win was as big as they've had in decades. With

936
00:43:06,639 --> 00:43:09,280
that said, they could still cover and not win this game.

937
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,880
But I actually project to Louisville by eight, and that

938
00:43:12,039 --> 00:43:15,679
is not really factoring in the emotional letdown angle. And

939
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,280
I still think there's a little bit of line value.

940
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,320
The line is currently six and a half minus fifteen

941
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,119
in some spots. If you like Louisville, I would lay it.

942
00:43:23,159 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 3: Now.

943
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,599
Speaker 4: If you like Virginia, maybe you catch a plus seven.

944
00:43:25,639 --> 00:43:28,400
It's a three thirty Eastern kickoff Saturday. But I would

945
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,119
lay it with Louisville minus six and a half. And

946
00:43:30,199 --> 00:43:32,719
Brian meant to mention this earlier I love these top

947
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:33,519
twenty five angles.

948
00:43:33,559 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 3: Shoot me the notes.

949
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 4: I will give you a shout out every week in

950
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,239
the video, just like I do with Ralph when he

951
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,280
sends me good stuff. You put me onto the college

952
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:41,920
basketball a couple of years ago, and you know, I

953
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,360
talked a lot about the unranked favorites. I do that

954
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:47,400
college basketball top twenty five video in the spring. But

955
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,039
I think it makes a lot of sense as well,

956
00:43:49,039 --> 00:43:51,000
and it also goes towards my faith the public video

957
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,280
a little bit, which I love to fade public underdogs,

958
00:43:53,679 --> 00:43:55,360
and I think whenever you're getting a ranked team as

959
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,480
an underdog against a non ranked team, it's by default

960
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:58,800
probably a public dog as well.

961
00:43:58,840 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 3: So that's why it.

962
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 2: Works absolutely all right, Ralph, what do you think, bigger

963
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,920
number than usual with the unranked team against the top

964
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,920
twenty five fall. I guess the oddsmakers are really telling

965
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,599
what you think. They think of Virginia's top twenty five

966
00:44:11,679 --> 00:44:14,599
ranking year. They don't think, really concur that the Who's

967
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:16,199
should be in the top twenty five.

968
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:22,199
Speaker 5: Well, their often should be. You know, I'm looking, I'm

969
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:23,679
having some trouble. I was trying to look at what

970
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,639
unranked things are. I'll have that for next week. But

971
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:32,400
you know, you look at Louisville and fifty one to

972
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,199
seventeen win, Eastern Kentucky twenty eight to fourteen win against

973
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,960
James Madison. Now, James Madison is a great defense, so

974
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,199
them only scoring two hundred and sixty four yards is

975
00:44:40,199 --> 00:44:42,320
a bit of a concern at home. But we've seen

976
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,920
how good the Dukes have been after that Bowling Green.

977
00:44:45,039 --> 00:44:48,559
They did what they had doing last week against Pittsburgh.

978
00:44:48,639 --> 00:44:51,360
It was very misleading to me because they were plus

979
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,360
four turnovers, and we talked about any college football team

980
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,320
that's plus four turnovers, you know, you're gonna win ninety

981
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,840
five percent of the time, and maybe even more than that.

982
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,760
You know, I was on the over last week for

983
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:08,760
Virginia and Florida State, you know, and four hundred and

984
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,639
forty yards you got out gained by five hundred and

985
00:45:10,639 --> 00:45:12,719
fourteen yards. But they did what they had to do,

986
00:45:13,039 --> 00:45:15,679
running the ball for over two hundred and eleven, you know,

987
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,320
and they pressured enough. They had five sacks against Stanford

988
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:23,679
in two sacks against Florida. You know, Louisville number thirty

989
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,880
four and number twenty six on offense, but they average

990
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:31,199
and defense holding their foes. Virginia number thirteen and number

991
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:36,599
fifty three. Last week against Pittsburgh Louisgo ran eighty four plays.

992
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:42,519
Last week against Florida State, Virginia ran eighty four plays.

993
00:45:43,039 --> 00:45:44,079
Tell you what give me the over?

994
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 4: All?

995
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 1: Right, there we go. The over is Ralph's Look there, guys.

996
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 2: Yes, people are asking I'm sure you're gonna get to

997
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:52,800
Miami a Florida State.

998
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,079
Speaker 1: The answer is absolutely yes. That will be coming up

999
00:45:55,079 --> 00:45:55,639
in just a minute.

1000
00:45:55,639 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 2: But first, Steve mentioned just a few moments ago about

1001
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,519
but he referenced that tremendous field storming by the Virginia

1002
00:46:03,559 --> 00:46:06,920
fans after the upset of Florida State. Now, those Virginia fans,

1003
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:08,639
they're able correct me if I'm wrong here, Steve. They're well,

1004
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,280
they're standing on the grass. That's what made it such

1005
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:12,960
a quick access.

1006
00:46:13,039 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, it is like a hill. There's like, yeah, I

1007
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:16,880
don't think there's even a there is no fan. I mean,

1008
00:46:17,039 --> 00:46:19,199
it's lowally a hill. And that's what happens when you

1009
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,880
allow people to watch a top twenty five national TV

1010
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:22,559
game on a hill.

1011
00:46:22,599 --> 00:46:23,760
Speaker 3: I guess is that's gonna happen.

1012
00:46:24,039 --> 00:46:25,639
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what I don't think there's ever been

1013
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,440
a top twenty five game you can watch on this hill.

1014
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,079
But you know where else you can watch football on

1015
00:46:30,119 --> 00:46:32,760
a hill at college football the corner A Route six

1016
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:38,320
point eighty two and Richland Avenue Peden Stadium in beautiful Athens, Ohio.

1017
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,440
My alma mon Ohio University, and Adam wants to know

1018
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,039
the line here seems a little short with Ohio and

1019
00:46:44,119 --> 00:46:44,760
ball State.

1020
00:46:45,079 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 1: I'll take this one, being that it's by Alba Monter.

1021
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 2: I would not bet Ohio, Oh you in this game, Adam,

1022
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:49,960
I wouldn't.

1023
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,519
Speaker 1: Ball State is off a bot. Now there is a problem.

1024
00:46:52,599 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 2: Now I would just pass on the game now because

1025
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,280
the issue with betting against Ou in this game is

1026
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,199
that you would be forced to put your harder dollars

1027
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:03,679
on balls State. And ball State is very very bad.

1028
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:07,639
But oh you, look the market did not like oh

1029
00:47:07,679 --> 00:47:10,480
you last week. They bet people were betting Bowling Green

1030
00:47:10,519 --> 00:47:12,880
like they knew the final score. Bobcats got to win

1031
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:16,639
and cover. Okay, but the defense is banged up. Ball State,

1032
00:47:16,679 --> 00:47:21,519
like I mentioned, rested off a bye i Ohio.

1033
00:47:21,119 --> 00:47:21,760
Speaker 1: Last two years.

1034
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 3: Guys.

1035
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:23,559
Speaker 1: I'll admit it. The alma honor has been better than

1036
00:47:23,599 --> 00:47:24,199
I expected.

1037
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 2: But I don't know if I want to lay double

1038
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,920
digits in this spot, even though Ball State Ralph is

1039
00:47:29,159 --> 00:47:33,039
absolutely futreing, so this would be a pass for me.

1040
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 5: Pe O'Brian, I did get that that info from the database,

1041
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,280
just to let's quantify. Keep talking about when we talk

1042
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:45,039
about situations. Well, guys, since twenty and sixteen, unranked favorites

1043
00:47:45,039 --> 00:47:48,760
against rake opponents, like two games we just talked about

1044
00:47:49,039 --> 00:47:52,719
Louisville and then Cincinnati, Iowa State fifty six fifty six

1045
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:57,480
and three fifty against the spread. Okay, unranked favorites of

1046
00:47:57,519 --> 00:48:00,679
three or more thirty eight and thirty six fifty one

1047
00:48:00,679 --> 00:48:04,280
point four. So those unranked teams that are favorites are

1048
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,719
even money or just slightly above them. And doz the

1049
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:08,440
line as a favorite of a field goal or more.

1050
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go there.

1051
00:48:11,519 --> 00:48:15,519
Speaker 2: Let's go to Miami and Florida State. This is another

1052
00:48:15,559 --> 00:48:18,000
game at the outset of the show, Guys, I brought

1053
00:48:18,039 --> 00:48:21,000
up lower ranked teams and top twenty five matchups have

1054
00:48:21,079 --> 00:48:24,679
been getting the job done thirteen and two against the spread,

1055
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:28,679
twelve and three straight up. That trend would favor Florida State.

1056
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:34,360
This week, Florida State off the loss to Virginia obviously

1057
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,519
that we just mentioned. They are hosting a Miami team

1058
00:48:38,039 --> 00:48:39,719
that has looked as good as anybody in the country.

1059
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,719
They are arrested the Caynes. I'll be honest with my

1060
00:48:43,159 --> 00:48:45,519
power raise. I made this line closer pick them. I'm

1061
00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:47,800
probably going to be on Florida State. I'll let you

1062
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:49,840
guys know that right now. I'm interested to hear what

1063
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:53,679
these guys have to say. I just think, what would

1064
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,880
this would this number? What would it have been if

1065
00:48:56,079 --> 00:49:00,079
Florida State hadn't lost to Virginia, Steve, I don't I

1066
00:49:00,079 --> 00:49:02,079
think we would have been getting over a field goal

1067
00:49:02,119 --> 00:49:02,639
with the Knoles.

1068
00:49:02,679 --> 00:49:03,199
Speaker 1: What do you think?

1069
00:49:04,039 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna check right now.

1070
00:49:05,519 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 4: One thing I love about the Odds logic odd screen

1071
00:49:08,519 --> 00:49:09,840
is that you can click on the history of the

1072
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,079
sports books. I'm gonna click on DraftKings right now as

1073
00:49:12,079 --> 00:49:13,679
we're doing this live and see if I can see

1074
00:49:13,679 --> 00:49:16,199
a lot, because you don't find a lot of look

1075
00:49:16,199 --> 00:49:18,280
aheads in college football, but you know, DraftKings is one

1076
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:22,280
that often does it. Now, the opener it's saying was six.

1077
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,599
That was on September twenty eighth, which would have been

1078
00:49:24,599 --> 00:49:27,199
what Sunday. So yes, yeah, the line opened six of

1079
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,360
DraftKings is down to four and a half. I favor

1080
00:49:29,679 --> 00:49:32,039
Miami by about two in this one. So I do

1081
00:49:32,159 --> 00:49:35,480
like Florida State. My concern is what we've talked about

1082
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:37,559
here is that this could be a possible letdown spot.

1083
00:49:37,639 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 3: I know it's a huge rival game.

1084
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,679
Speaker 4: I do like the factor at home, though, I will

1085
00:49:40,679 --> 00:49:42,360
point that out is I think a letdown is a

1086
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,199
little less likely when your frat, you know, in front

1087
00:49:44,199 --> 00:49:47,599
of your home fans rockets arena, whether it's basketball or

1088
00:49:47,639 --> 00:49:49,679
a big field advantage. And this is seven thirty East

1089
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:52,519
and Saturday night as well, so I think the home base,

1090
00:49:52,599 --> 00:49:55,079
the home crowd will will a little energy for Florida State.

1091
00:49:55,119 --> 00:49:57,679
And I also like the factor in explosive offense. I

1092
00:49:57,679 --> 00:49:59,800
talked about last year they had that flop against Georgia

1093
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:01,599
TI as a top ten team in the opener, they

1094
00:50:01,639 --> 00:50:04,159
scored twenty one. Well, they didn't do anything better than

1095
00:50:04,159 --> 00:50:06,400
that all season. Take out their FCS game. I think

1096
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,480
it was like Charleston Southern or somebody. They scored sixteen

1097
00:50:09,559 --> 00:50:12,239
or less than their other ten FPS games last year,

1098
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:13,960
and then they come out and they scored thirty one

1099
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,199
against Bama. I don't think they did it with the overtime,

1100
00:50:17,199 --> 00:50:19,039
but it was pretty close. They will definitely do it

1101
00:50:19,039 --> 00:50:21,599
this week. After this week, if they haven't already done it,

1102
00:50:21,599 --> 00:50:23,719
I have to check, they will have more points scored

1103
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,599
than all of last year against all eleven FBS opponents.

1104
00:50:26,639 --> 00:50:29,000
So this Florida State's a different breed this year.

1105
00:50:29,039 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 3: I like the Seminoles.

1106
00:50:30,559 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 2: Okay, Ralph, this is Steve obviously mentioned that this is

1107
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:38,719
a big rivalry game. I will point out that the underdog,

1108
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,400
whichever team that has been, has had some success going

1109
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:43,039
back to two.

1110
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 1: Thousand and five.

1111
00:50:43,559 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 2: Underdog in this rivalry is fourteen and six against the

1112
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:50,280
spread with nine outright upsets, So that points to the

1113
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:53,480
knowles here. But they are coming off the loss against

1114
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,199
the rest of Miami team that has looked great.

1115
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:58,519
Speaker 5: What do you think here, Steve, I'm just looking right now.

1116
00:50:59,679 --> 00:51:02,679
Last you're including the Charleston Southern game of forty one

1117
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:05,719
to seven, scored one hundred and eighty five points. They

1118
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,800
have two hundred and twelve already after four months, so

1119
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,760
that sort of quantifies it. I'll tell you what, guys,

1120
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:18,360
you look and you're talking about offenses that are elite.

1121
00:51:18,519 --> 00:51:23,119
You know, Florida State is number four, excuse me, number one,

1122
00:51:23,159 --> 00:51:26,559
averaging six hundred yards. Miami has number twenty nine averaging

1123
00:51:26,599 --> 00:51:29,280
four hundred and fifty one yards. But again a massive

1124
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,840
strength of schedule difference here Miami twenty six, Florida State

1125
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,840
one to eleven. Florida State also has been playing very

1126
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:39,400
fast seventy three point three plays per game, that's number sixteen.

1127
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:43,239
Miami top forty in plays per game. So we have

1128
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:47,639
good offenses, we have excellent offenses, we have fast tempo.

1129
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,320
So why in the heck would I be giving out

1130
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:54,039
the under. This is one of the matchups that teams

1131
00:51:54,079 --> 00:51:57,039
are going to play much different than they've had being

1132
00:51:57,079 --> 00:52:00,639
a conference game. Yes, Miami played Notre Dame, but again

1133
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,800
remember only three hundred and twenty four yards and sixty

1134
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:09,639
nine plays and they beat Florida. They ran seventy six plays.

1135
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,679
But now conference teams in state rivals that know each

1136
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:17,360
other better, you tend to play more conservatively, especially early.

1137
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:20,039
You don't want to lose the game by making a mistake.

1138
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,360
I feel you run the ball early. I actually lean

1139
00:52:23,599 --> 00:52:27,719
under full game, and I'm peer I'm gonna give out

1140
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:31,360
first half under the total. So I expect these teams

1141
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:35,039
to get it going later. I think they start slow,

1142
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,480
feel each other out and get off to a slow start.

1143
00:52:39,079 --> 00:52:42,199
Speaker 1: Okay, slow start, says Ralph Fair down at Tellasse.

1144
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:45,519
Speaker 2: All right, guys, it is come to that time in

1145
00:52:45,559 --> 00:52:48,320
the show where all three of us give out a

1146
00:52:48,559 --> 00:52:52,360
best bet for the show. But we will also tell

1147
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:54,639
you again. We're just gonna remind you what we've gotten

1148
00:52:54,679 --> 00:52:59,960
going on this weekend here at wager talk dot com. Again,

1149
00:53:00,199 --> 00:53:03,519
I have a five percent max bet locked and loaded

1150
00:53:03,519 --> 00:53:06,000
for Saturday in college football. The last time I had

1151
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:07,559
a five percent max bet was Week two of the

1152
00:53:07,639 --> 00:53:09,360
NFL when the Atlanta fal because a three and a

1153
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,000
half point underdog, took care of business against the Minnesota

1154
00:53:12,039 --> 00:53:17,039
Vikings in a twenty two to six outright win. For

1155
00:53:17,159 --> 00:53:20,039
my free play here on the show today, I'm gonna

1156
00:53:20,079 --> 00:53:27,679
give you an underdog Cal plus three versus Duke. Why

1157
00:53:27,679 --> 00:53:30,239
do we like Cal here, Well, this is another one

1158
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:34,320
of those cross country trips, guys, that Duke is having

1159
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:36,760
to make. I really dislike this spot for the Blue

1160
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,079
Devils going on the road. Late night kickoff, we talked

1161
00:53:40,119 --> 00:53:41,920
about the West Coast teams. We don't like it when

1162
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,039
they start early. Well, I don't like when East Coast

1163
00:53:44,039 --> 00:53:45,920
teams have to start late. This game kicks off at

1164
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,840
ten to thirty pm Eastern. With conference expansion, there's been

1165
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:51,039
a lot of focus rightly selling teams making these cross

1166
00:53:51,039 --> 00:53:53,280
country tips and not faring well.

1167
00:53:53,559 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 3: Now.

1168
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 2: Last week, Cal, interestingly enough, did go to BC across

1169
00:53:57,519 --> 00:53:59,840
the country and win outright as a six and a

1170
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:02,519
half point underdog twenty eight twenty four. But something we

1171
00:54:02,519 --> 00:54:04,000
talked about earlier in the show, that was a three

1172
00:54:04,119 --> 00:54:07,280
thirty Eastern kickoff, So I don't think you know the

1173
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:09,400
start time wasn't an issue for the Bears. It was

1174
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,920
a nice bounce back after the terrible loss they suffered

1175
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:14,840
on the road two weeks ago as two touchdown favorites

1176
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:18,199
at San Diego State. Last time here at Berkeley, whatd

1177
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,880
Cal do? They beat another team that had to come west,

1178
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:23,400
that was Minnesota. Bears won That won twenty seven to

1179
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:27,679
fourteen as three point underdogs. Love the freshman quarterback for

1180
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:29,599
Cal Jks. He's the reason the team has been better

1181
00:54:29,639 --> 00:54:32,440
than expected. This was a team under Justin Wilcox that

1182
00:54:32,519 --> 00:54:35,519
was projected to finish it near the bottom of the ACC.

1183
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:38,519
Now I think they're more middle of the pack. As

1184
00:54:38,559 --> 00:54:41,000
for Duke Not only are they flying across the country

1185
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:42,280
for a late kickoff.

1186
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 1: But this is really key. This stuck really stuck out

1187
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:45,639
to me.

1188
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:50,639
Speaker 2: This guy's is Duke's fifth consecutive game where the line

1189
00:54:50,679 --> 00:54:52,880
is four points or less. So they've had a lot

1190
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:56,679
of competitive matchups in a row with no buy in between.

1191
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,079
I had him at home in a must win spot

1192
00:54:59,119 --> 00:55:01,599
two weeks ago versus NC State that was a three

1193
00:55:01,599 --> 00:55:02,559
percent client play.

1194
00:55:03,159 --> 00:55:05,159
Speaker 1: Last week, the Duke won that one.

1195
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:07,159
Speaker 2: They won last week as well, taking advantage of a

1196
00:55:07,199 --> 00:55:10,239
Syracuse team that had previously lost its starting quarterback to

1197
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,760
a season in the ending injury. I just wonder what

1198
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:15,440
the Blue Devils have left to the tank guys. This

1199
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,239
is a team I expected to take a step back

1200
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:20,400
in twenty twenty five. Yes, many Diez's team didn't go

1201
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,920
five and three straight up in ACC play last season,

1202
00:55:24,159 --> 00:55:26,000
but they were only favored in three of those games

1203
00:55:26,199 --> 00:55:28,400
and outgained by an average of fifty five yards per game.

1204
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:31,360
Did benefit from a plus five turnover margin. So if

1205
00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:33,920
Cal takes care of the football here, I believe the

1206
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:37,239
Bears pull the late night upset in the old Drew

1207
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,800
Martin late night degenerate special spot. So I'm riding with

1208
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,280
cal plus three. Don't forget about that five percent max.

1209
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,840
But I've got a currently available for sale WT Dot Buzz,

1210
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:49,719
Slash VP and the Weekend Warrior Pass for just fourteen

1211
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:54,400
extra dollars to get the complete card as well. Steve Merrill,

1212
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,119
thank you for joining us here on the program this week.

1213
00:55:57,480 --> 00:56:00,079
It is now the floor is now. You're sir to

1214
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,719
give us a free play and talk about and remind

1215
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:04,159
us what you've got going for the weekend.

1216
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:07,079
Speaker 4: I always appreciate being the floor being handed me from

1217
00:56:07,119 --> 00:56:09,679
the senator from Ohio, and I also thank Brian and

1218
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,440
Ruff for allowing me to join them. I hope Ross

1219
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:15,199
feels better, which was under better circumstances, but always great

1220
00:56:15,199 --> 00:56:15,519
to be here.

1221
00:56:15,559 --> 00:56:16,639
Speaker 3: Guys. It's a great show.

1222
00:56:16,679 --> 00:56:19,119
Speaker 4: We covered a lot of games, and don't forget I

1223
00:56:19,199 --> 00:56:21,239
cover even more games with free play videos right here

1224
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:23,719
every week in college football wager Talk TV. Also my

1225
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:26,880
College Football Top twenty five video deep dive into the

1226
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:30,239
biggest games this weekend will be available later this evening

1227
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,159
on Thursday, and then right around the corner my NFL

1228
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:34,719
Fade the Public video. By the way, I do have

1229
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:37,000
the Thursday night College and Pro Football games up free

1230
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,000
and videos right now in the channel, and if you're

1231
00:56:39,039 --> 00:56:40,880
joining us a little bit later on the replay, I've

1232
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:44,320
got your Sunday Morning Vikings Browns. The game is so

1233
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:46,519
great we had to export it overseas, but I do

1234
00:56:46,559 --> 00:56:49,000
think there's a betting edge in that game. Minnesota, Cleveland

1235
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:51,079
and then a ton more NFL videos, including my fade.

1236
00:56:51,079 --> 00:56:53,840
The public video will be ready for this weekend as well.

1237
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:56,039
So hey, when you subscribe, because I know you've already

1238
00:56:56,039 --> 00:56:58,280
done it, over two hundred and twenty one thousand subscribers

1239
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:01,199
can't be wrong. Click the bell as well for an

1240
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,039
instant alerts you know when these shows go live and

1241
00:57:03,039 --> 00:57:05,000
also when the free play videos are loaded each day

1242
00:57:05,039 --> 00:57:08,400
here on wager talk tv, thumbs up like in comment

1243
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:11,360
below because we read the comments and we reply back.

1244
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:14,719
Best bets on my page Steve merrillwager talk dot com

1245
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:17,000
include a daily free play. Check out the bonus free

1246
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:18,760
play right now on my page and get there quicker

1247
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:22,280
wt dot buzz slash sm free play for the show here.

1248
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,639
We touched on this game earlier with the under between

1249
00:57:24,719 --> 00:57:26,559
Navy and Air Force. I do like under fifty two,

1250
00:57:26,599 --> 00:57:28,559
but I like the side as well. In this one

1251
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:32,000
Navy minus twelve. Now, it's a little bit of a hedge.

1252
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:35,159
If the game does not stay under as it normally does,

1253
00:57:35,559 --> 00:57:37,960
then it's going to help us with the favorite. If

1254
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,840
it stays under, maybe we don't get the favor, but

1255
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:41,519
I think we could win both. And I like Navy

1256
00:57:41,519 --> 00:57:44,880
minus twelve because they're the better offense, they're the better defense,

1257
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:46,960
and the matchup favors, and they're also at home in

1258
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,360
this one. Early kickoff, by the way, noon Eastern, which

1259
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:52,960
is probably ten am for the Flyboys. I'm sure they

1260
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,840
travel well. And normally we don't look to fade military

1261
00:57:55,840 --> 00:57:57,679
teams as a dog or option teams as a dog

1262
00:57:57,679 --> 00:57:59,440
because they often keep the game close, but I don't

1263
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:01,760
think that's going to the case in this one. The

1264
00:58:01,840 --> 00:58:04,440
reason this total is in the fifties for a Service

1265
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:07,960
Academy game is because Air Force defense is really bad. Now,

1266
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,280
given up ten yards per pass is terrible. I'm not

1267
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:12,519
sure Navy will exploit that, but what does stand out

1268
00:58:12,559 --> 00:58:14,880
to me is air Force has given up over five

1269
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:18,199
yards per carry, and that's a problem because Navy allows

1270
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:20,239
just three yards per rush and both teams are going

1271
00:58:20,320 --> 00:58:21,960
to run the ball about eighty ninety percent of their

1272
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:25,159
plays in this game. Huge rush, defensive edge for Navy.

1273
00:58:25,199 --> 00:58:26,840
That the better team on both sides of the ball.

1274
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:29,519
And yes it's a rival game, but that also means

1275
00:58:29,519 --> 00:58:31,840
they have motivation to win by double digit and extend

1276
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:34,320
the lead whenever possible. If you're going to play the side,

1277
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:36,920
lay it with Navy minus twelve. That's at noon Eastern

1278
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:39,559
on CBS National TV Game Saturday.

1279
00:58:40,199 --> 00:58:43,079
Speaker 2: All right, Steve says, to lay it with the midshipman

1280
00:58:43,159 --> 00:58:45,800
there in our first Commander in Chief game.

1281
00:58:45,679 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 3: Of the year.

1282
00:58:46,679 --> 00:58:48,199
Speaker 2: Ralph, you're going to tell the people to lay it

1283
00:58:48,239 --> 00:58:52,079
as well. We leave no stone unturned here on the blitz.

1284
00:58:52,599 --> 00:58:55,679
You picked an interesting matchup here as a James Madison

1285
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:57,920
side that is a perfect four for four against the

1286
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:00,159
number takes on a Georgia State team that is well'll

1287
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,159
the complete opposite oh and four against the number. So

1288
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:05,840
talk about this matchup in the sun Belt and what

1289
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,199
you've got going on this weekend at wagertalk dot com.

1290
00:59:08,239 --> 00:59:12,639
Speaker 5: Steve only the third double digit line for a Commander

1291
00:59:12,639 --> 00:59:16,880
in Chief game. Wow, Army, Remember last week late eighteen

1292
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:18,800
and a half, they only won twenty to three last

1293
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:22,199
year and then twenty thirteen, Navy laid thirteen to Air

1294
00:59:22,239 --> 00:59:25,320
Force and did cover twenty eight to ten. So that

1295
00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:27,519
goes all the way back to two thousand and five.

1296
00:59:27,559 --> 00:59:31,360
I think. So you know, Brian, you had said you

1297
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,880
don't lay double digits on the road in college football.

1298
00:59:34,639 --> 00:59:37,880
I struggled to I am laying twenty points on the road,

1299
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:40,599
and I actually think there's advantage and I'm going to

1300
00:59:40,679 --> 00:59:41,239
tell you why.

1301
00:59:41,639 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: Okay, number one.

1302
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:47,159
Speaker 5: Let's remember this. Most college teams, I remember Nebraska used

1303
00:59:47,159 --> 00:59:49,519
to have like one hundred and thirty players, Oklahoma used

1304
00:59:49,519 --> 00:59:51,880
to You know, you're allowed to have an unlimited number

1305
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:54,639
of players now at home, So if you have a

1306
00:59:54,639 --> 00:59:57,800
big lead, what happens You start bringing in the second string,

1307
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:00,840
the third string, the fourth string, sometimes in the fifth string.

1308
01:00:01,199 --> 01:00:05,360
But when you travel, you are restricted. Some conferences are

1309
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:09,079
seventy some conferences are seventy five. That means you basically

1310
01:00:09,119 --> 01:00:12,519
only have three strings playing on the road. And then

1311
01:00:12,599 --> 01:00:16,119
number two, when you're an offense like James Madison that

1312
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:18,360
runs the ball, they have run the ball one hundred

1313
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:21,079
and eighty six times, pass the ball only one hundred

1314
01:00:21,159 --> 01:00:23,800
five times, and by the way, they're averaging two hundred

1315
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,599
and forty nine yards per game, rushing five point four

1316
01:00:26,679 --> 01:00:30,400
yards per carry, facing a team that's allowing two hundred

1317
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:33,119
and twenty seven yards per game and five point six

1318
01:00:33,199 --> 01:00:36,400
yards per carry. Why is that important? Well, when you

1319
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:38,320
have an air raid offense and you have a big

1320
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:40,599
lead and you want to slow down the game, you

1321
01:00:40,639 --> 01:00:43,400
are completely out of sync running the ball. Your offensive

1322
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,280
lineman no only know how to pass block. You're into

1323
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:49,079
weird offenses. People don't know the plays. But if you're

1324
01:00:49,079 --> 01:00:51,559
a James Madison team that's gonna run the ball every time.

1325
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:54,000
It doesn't matter. If you're the first string, doesn't matter,

1326
01:00:54,039 --> 01:00:56,360
if you're the second string, doesn't matter, if you're the

1327
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,719
third string, You're gonna run the exact same office, regardless

1328
01:00:59,719 --> 01:01:01,960
of who who's in there or how big the lead is.

1329
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,920
That's big when you could start breaking those rush attacks

1330
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:08,880
like that. Plus James Madison plays at tempo, their top

1331
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:11,639
twenty five in plays per game. Add it up. I

1332
01:01:11,679 --> 01:01:16,559
am not afraid to lay twenty points at Georgia State,

1333
01:01:16,840 --> 01:01:21,360
who allowed Mississippi sixty three points, who allowed Vanderbilt six

1334
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:24,800
hundred thirty five yards and seventy points, and an offense

1335
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:31,559
averaging two hundred and seventy five yards against FBSFOS. James Madison,

1336
01:01:31,599 --> 01:01:35,840
Folks is an actual client play for me, so take advantage.

1337
01:01:35,960 --> 01:01:39,119
Remember no weekend Warrior for me. Get the three day

1338
01:01:39,159 --> 01:01:42,079
all access. I have a Friday college football five percent

1339
01:01:42,199 --> 01:01:45,079
nine and one on those number two in college football

1340
01:01:45,119 --> 01:01:47,559
the last two years, number two in college football and

1341
01:01:47,639 --> 01:01:48,480
NFL combined.

1342
01:01:49,599 --> 01:01:52,199
Speaker 2: All right, James Madison, he was the fourth President of

1343
01:01:52,199 --> 01:01:54,360
the United States of America, and he is Ralph Michael's

1344
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:56,599
best bet on the program this week. There you see

1345
01:01:56,639 --> 01:01:59,519
it the blitz our best bets here, Steve Merrill, he's

1346
01:01:59,599 --> 01:02:01,519
laying it with Navy against air Force.

1347
01:02:01,559 --> 01:02:03,559
Speaker 1: A rare opportunity to lay double.

1348
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:05,840
Speaker 2: Digits the Commander in Chief game, Steve says, do it, Ralph,

1349
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:08,000
he just told you why he likes JMU minus twenty

1350
01:02:08,039 --> 01:02:10,599
against Georgia State, and I in the eight night game

1351
01:02:10,639 --> 01:02:15,119
will take the three with Cal against Duke. We did

1352
01:02:15,199 --> 01:02:17,840
forget at least earlier in the show, but I have

1353
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:18,440
not forgotten.

1354
01:02:18,440 --> 01:02:18,599
Speaker 5: Now.

1355
01:02:18,719 --> 01:02:20,599
Speaker 2: There is a game tonight that you guys asked about

1356
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,039
with Sam Houston State. We'll just hit that really quick

1357
01:02:23,039 --> 01:02:26,679
before we sign off here. Sam Houston one and four

1358
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,960
straight up, Oh and four gets the spread this year,

1359
01:02:29,719 --> 01:02:32,199
they're a favorite on the road. That should tell you

1360
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,239
about the quality of New Mexico State, who is number

1361
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:39,039
one eighteen and yards per play margin despite playing the

1362
01:02:39,079 --> 01:02:43,440
weaker schedule. For me, what's the money line price on

1363
01:02:43,519 --> 01:02:46,199
Sam Houston State here? Because that's that's what I would do.

1364
01:02:46,480 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 1: You can there's two and a half out there.

1365
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:51,119
Speaker 2: There's still some one and a half's if you shop around,

1366
01:02:51,199 --> 01:02:54,679
So let's see minus one twenty Yeah, minus one twentieth

1367
01:02:54,679 --> 01:02:57,679
FanDuel minus won twenty five at DraftKings. I'd play I

1368
01:02:57,679 --> 01:02:59,480
don't know if you guys have anything before we signed off,

1369
01:02:59,519 --> 01:03:01,519
but I would I would play Sam Houston State minus

1370
01:03:01,519 --> 01:03:02,000
one twenty.

1371
01:03:02,519 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 5: Just something small, Brian that you said strength of schedule,

1372
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:09,159
Sam Houston number fourteen, New Mexico State number one sixty.

1373
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:13,119
Enough said, And basically their yards per game are even

1374
01:03:13,559 --> 01:03:15,559
at those numbers. They're number one hundred twenty eight and

1375
01:03:15,559 --> 01:03:17,719
one hundred thirty four. So if you're number one hundred

1376
01:03:17,719 --> 01:03:20,280
and thirty four against the fourteenth schedule, that's why you're

1377
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:22,800
alling four and favorite because New Mexico State is number

1378
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:25,760
one twenty eight versus the number one hundred and sixty schedule.

1379
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:28,480
I think the line should be higher, to be honest

1380
01:03:28,519 --> 01:03:29,000
with him.

1381
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 1: Bearcats with a K.

1382
01:03:31,880 --> 01:03:34,079
Speaker 2: Remember that it is Bearcats with a K in Sam

1383
01:03:34,039 --> 01:03:36,119
Houston's state and that Aggie for New Mexico state. He

1384
01:03:36,159 --> 01:03:38,719
looks like an angry individual. I wouldn't want to cross him.

1385
01:03:39,239 --> 01:03:41,840
All right, Steve, if you have anything else, if you

1386
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:42,719
thank you for joining us.

1387
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have anything on tonight's game, I'll.

1388
01:03:45,239 --> 01:03:47,079
Speaker 4: Tell you what so we can run. I've got a

1389
01:03:47,119 --> 01:03:49,039
full five to six minute video on this game with

1390
01:03:49,119 --> 01:03:51,679
a free play on the total. So what, it's free,

1391
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:54,159
don't cost nothing right here on wager Talk TV. Check

1392
01:03:54,199 --> 01:03:55,960
it out free playing this game for Thursday nine a

1393
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:58,480
long with the NFL game between the Rams and forty

1394
01:03:58,559 --> 01:03:58,840
nine Ers.

1395
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:01,199
Speaker 3: So I'll leave it for people to watch the video afterwards.

1396
01:04:01,239 --> 01:04:01,559
Speaker 1: Awesome.

1397
01:04:01,599 --> 01:04:03,199
Speaker 2: All right, check that out, guys. Check out the new

1398
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:05,440
edition of the Power five as well. That drop this morning.

1399
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:08,000
I talk about all the interesting line moves that have

1400
01:04:08,039 --> 01:04:10,480
already transpired in college football and the NFL, and I

1401
01:04:10,559 --> 01:04:13,360
too talk about the Thursday night NFL game as well.

1402
01:04:13,639 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 1: All right.

1403
01:04:14,039 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 2: For Ralph Michaels, for Steve Merrill, I am Brian Power.

1404
01:04:17,039 --> 01:04:20,920
This was another edition of The Blitz. Until next time,

1405
01:04:21,239 --> 01:04:22,559
let's cash the tickets.