Speaker 1: We are live. Welcome to the Blitz.
Speaker 2: Free plays for Week six in college football coming right up.
If you are watching us live here on the Wage
Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now,
because any game you want to talk about, we'll be
happy to do. So all you gotta do is comment
down below and we'll answer. I'll let you know right
now we are definitely talking about Vanderbilt at Alabama, Iowa
State at Cincinnati, Texas at Florida, Texas Tech at Houston.
Speaker 1: And Miami Florida at Florida State.
Speaker 2: Here to help me, as always is the Penn himself,
Ralph Michaels. Of course here now. Usually sitting in the
third chair is Ross Benjamin. Unfortunately, Ross a little bit
under the weather this week. Get well soon, buddy, but
never fear. We have a lot of nil money. You
may not know that, but we do have a lot
of nil money here at the Blitz. So we hit
the portal and we brought in one of the best
transfers you could buy, the great Steve Merrill joining the
program of Steve.
Speaker 1: It's been a very long time since we've talked.
Speaker 3: How are you doing, Brian?
Speaker 4: Are you flipping the image why do you get your
W on the non logo side.
Speaker 3: My mine's on the right, minds on the right side?
Is yours on the left?
Speaker 1: Mine's on the left right.
Speaker 4: Yes, it did our shirts different, Ralph, don't feel bad
when you eventually get yours.
Speaker 3: You might get let.
Speaker 5: At least put a W on it, because I feel
left out.
Speaker 4: The blitz sponsored by a Way to Talk TV and
the Nike. So here we go look part of that,
and I'll you know, you might not understand that this
nil money works, but I'm supposed to eventually see some
of that.
Speaker 3: But I do.
Speaker 4: Appreciate the offer. Check it in the mails. He's definitely
in the mail. You're getting my current address.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say you're still living in Wisconsin. Right,
Everything's on its way.
Speaker 2: Okay, anyway, guys, uh, let's talk about the sec here.
Let's get it going, Ralph. I always try to shamelessly
impress you with trends every week, and you being the
trend guy, and I got one for you here for
this Vanderbilt Alabama game. Talked about it on the midweek
edition of the Power Five. Lower ranked teams in Top
twenty five matchups this year twelve and three straight up
thirty in two against the spread. I was chatting with
a buddy during the week and we were thinking hypothesizing
Ralph that perhaps the fact that lower ranked teams are
having success in these kind of matchups is because the
AP doesn't really know what they're doing anymore, and that
the pole is pretty bad. Your thoughts on that assessments
and your thoughts on the trend in general that lower
ranked teams have been having success in top twenty five matchups.
That obviously applies to Bandy this week down in Tuscaloosa.
Speaker 5: Again, we know the AP pole is a joke and
you can find advantages. Like you said, you know, if
you're an undefeated team, you end up there. When you lose,
you drop down few. It doesn't matter who you've played,
So there is there is something to be said about that.
But you know, again I am I am on Bama here.
There's no question. You know, you can look at Vanderbilt
and they're a great story. I did look up teams
that are an away dog or four or more with
zero losses from game five on, so you know, you
don't know if the team is a real undefeated team
or not until you played a few conference games, so
we're going to learn about, you know, Vandy quite a bit.
But those teams with zero losses and as an away
dog of four more from game five and later sixteen
and twenty eight thirty six point four percent. And let's remember,
revenge is such an overused term in college football. It
is legitimate revenge when you are a top ten team
and you lose as a three touchdown favorite, you know,
to Vanderbilt last year, and teams off a loss as
a conference away favorite, top ten team seventeen and seven
when they're a home favorite in that revenge role seventy
three percent. So I look at it, but I look
at Vandy in this. You know, Diego Pavilla is he's
a game winner. I mean, he's exciting. He is a
guy who's leading the team in passing and in rushing.
He has four hundred and ninety four rush yards six
point one yards per carry. But here's my concern. Dandy's
d's they faced FBS opponents ranked one, thirty five, one fifth,
sixty eight, and forty six. Bama is nineteen past defenses
Paveya has faced number one, twenty five, number eighty one,
number seventy eight, number thirty six, Bama is number two.
Bama runs this and runs them out the door, covers
this double dig dispread.
Speaker 2: All right, Ralph coming in hot there. He likes Bama,
says that trend maybe takes a step back. I will
say this, Steve A. Diego Pavia, he has been great
as an underdog. He's been a game changer for this
Vanderbilt program. On Belivia has five outright upsets since becoming
the quarterback of the Commodores. Yes, fis nine to two
ats as a dog since coming to Nashville, including five
a perfect five and zero on the road. They are
on the road here. But to Ralph's point, I remember
it was only a few weeks ago we were here
on the program. It was like before their first game,
before they lost to Florida State, we were all talking
up Alabama as a national championship contender, that we throw
that ticket away when they lose to Florida State. Now,
all of a sudden, I'll be honestly, I got Alabama
power rate as the second best team of the country.
Speaker 1: How do you look at this game?
Speaker 3: Interesting?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say, we'll learn a lot more
about Bama. You know, I did a video for the
Georgia Obama game midweek, and then I said, I'd like
to know that Florida State Virginia result because we'll see
if Florida State's for real. And then that transitive property
says was Alabama for real? Because you know, Bama giving
up thirty one points the Florida State didn't look very good,
considering the Seminals scored sixteen or less in each of
their final ten games against FBS opponents last year. But
then after the next couple weeks in Florida State scored
one hundred and eighty points in three games, it looked
pretty good. I do think Bama's for real. This is
obviously a focused spot. Form Normally it would not be
a focused spot. It'd be a terrible spot after the
big Georgia game and then playing as a double digit
favorite against Vandy. But they will not overlook Vanderbilt this week.
I always rely on my power ratings. My ten thousand
game simulation favors Alabama by fourteen in this one. Current
line is ten and a half, so I do lean
Bama would like it more at ten or less. I'd
say there's a three to four percent chance they win
by exactly ten points. It's a key number. I actually
rate Vanderbilt is the better offense right now in my
power ratings, but Bama the better defense, and I think
that'll be the difference in this game when all is
said and done. Good friend of mine, Daniel Owens, I
coach with him. He's a Virginia Tech alum. He goes
to all the games. He was at the Vandy game
a few weeks ago. He saw Virginia Tech blew that
ten to nothing lead and then get outscored by like
thirty four points in a row. Vanderbilt is a legit offense.
They're explosive. Over might be worth a looking this game
for that reason as well, and that Bama does come
a little bit flat. I think that offense shows more
on the defensive side of the football. So maybe hedge
a little bit if you like Alabama minus ten and
a half, as I do, hedge it a little bit.
Maybe with the over fifty five and a half as well.
Speaker 1: Ralph, I saw you waving the pat You have something
to add there.
Speaker 5: I do just to quantify the Vanderbilt schedule with the defense,
as I gave you, Alabama has played the number five schedule.
Vanderbilt has played the number one hundred and seven schedule,
so take their season at date stats with a grain
of salt.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, Steve mentioned something about this usually
being a how this could easily be a letdown spot
for BAMA coming off the Georgia win. But guys, keep
in mind what happened when they played Vanderbilt last year.
They lost to Vanderbilt, so they're not going to take
Vanderbilt lightly here. And that game was in Nashville last year.
And you talk about value. When these teams met last year,
Alabama closed minus twenty three and a half on the road. Now,
as Steve mentioned their minus ten and a half at home.
It's interesting, Steve that you mentioned liking Alabama by two
touchdowns of this game because the number open thirteen and
a half. Vandy's taking money down to the current price
at ten and a half. I would you know, the
value is kind of on you know, while the trend
favors Vandy, the value does seem to be on Bama.
By the way, last how many visits here, eleven visits?
Vandy has lost in Tuscaloos, so they have not scored
more than ten points in any last five. But they
do have Bobby of this time, which should be a
little different. All right, guys, keep those questions coming. I
see several already coming in. Let's go to Maryland and Washington.
Jacob Hefner, he wants to know why are the bookmakers
disrespecting Maryland? Forget taking the points? Give me the terp
straight up at home against Washington Ralph. I'll say this,
Washington coming off a game against Ohio State where they
probably played better than the final score indicated. There were
some penalties that I thought should have gone against him.
Speaker 1: That did that.
Speaker 2: They for you know, more than a half they were
in that game with the Ohio State. They took a
lot of money Washington did early in the week against
the buck Eyes. Maryland is interesting because they usually fall
flat on their face when the conference schedule starts. What
do you think here about this game Maryland at Washington.
Speaker 5: Well, you know the reason for bookmakers, as he puts it,
or disrespect in Maryland. Let's see, they played FAU Northern Illinois, Townsend,
and Wisconsin. So I'll tell you this. I do like
looking at Sagrin's strength of schedule, the reason being, he
adds in the FBS and the FCS teams, so you
get a legitimate strength to schedule. And this may be
the lowest number on the board. You can't quote me
on this, but there are one hundred and thirty six
FBS teams. They have Maryland as the number one hundred
and seventy sixth schedule, so that means at least forty
FCS teams have played a stronger schedule than Maryland, and
still they're only number fifty five at plus sixty eight
yards per game. Washington has played one hundred and ten
better spots number sixty four schedule. They are number twenty
one in yards per game difth. They're plus one hundred
and seventy four point five yards per game, and they're
plus two point four to one yards per play. That
is number seventeen in the country. Maryland also misleading. They're
plus seven turnovers. That's one of the highest numbers. So
when you're going through your schedule and you're putting up
stats and you win the turnover battle, again, six of
those came against defau But you look at the Wisconsin game,
they had a thirty yard edge, they only rushed for
sixty one yards and two point seven yards per carry
against Northern Illinois, they only rushed for eighty six yards
and three point one yards per carry. And this Washington
defense is legit. Yes, Ohio State scored three fifty seven
on them, I mean put up three fifty seven, but
that was basically, you know, the Ohio State average, So
they did a fine job. I do. I think the
disrespect for Maryland is legit. I like the Huskies.
Speaker 2: Okay, Steve, what do you think Washingtons certainly got a
lot of respect last week against Ohio State and could
not cash in obviously, But I think I'm with right.
I think Maryland's gonna lose this game. They're not going
I think whether or not I want to lay the
points with Washington a different story. But I don't think
Maryland's winning here.
Speaker 4: It's a terrible scheduling spot in my opinion. I mean,
they're traveling Craws Country. Ralph might have this. When's the
last time they've ever played in Maryland? If ever, I
would venture to guess these teams have never played at
least in Chapel Park, not Chapel Hill College Park, College Park.
I grew up in Northern Virginia, and I've been away
for twenty years. I couldn't remember the name. I've been
to basketball games at College Park. You got a park
like two miles from these stadium. I can't imagine the
Huskies have ever played at Maryland. So this is a
weird setup. And then you're coming off that game. Yes,
your season's not over because you lose one time, but
it's still a spotlight game. You only score six points,
and that's a home game, And now traveling across country
looks like a terrible setup. And then there is line value.
I think my ten thousand simulation has Washington winning by
three points on average. I do also rate Maryland as
the stronger defensive team in this game, Washington the better offense.
But the bad schedule spot be anterually to see if
we get seven or more. It's six and a half
across the board right here on Thursday afternoon, But if
you check bet online book maker and those are the
Sharper books, I get that there at six and a
half minus fifteen. I would wait, you might get a
plus seven with Maryland by kickoff on Saturday afternoon.
Speaker 3: I was definitely like the turfs at that point.
Speaker 5: Okay, Steve says to wait a little bit Ralph you're
waving to I am going to give back up, Steve
with one point. Last year, the first year in the
Big Ten, they went to Rutgers, they put up five
hundred and twenty one yards, but they lost twenty one
to eighteen. They went to Indiana, they lost thirty one
to seventeen, and they went to Iowa, half the trip
of what Maryland is and they lost forty to sixteen.
So those three Central and East Coast games on the
road last year ugly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's been a big talking point in the Big Ten.
Speaker 2: Obviously at other conferences since at the acc SIS expansion,
whey of these really really long roadchri Stay tuned, by
the way.
Speaker 5: Do you guys know what time the game is? Don't
I don't think a West coach gets hurt fied.
Speaker 1: Okay, well it's not as bad.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the loon games. I clearly think you look
to fede the night games. Those kids are used to
playing at night, so.
Speaker 1: You know, yeah, up, stay tuned.
Speaker 2: By the way, my free play at the end of
the show, of course, we all all give up free play.
At the end of the show. My free play will
be on another team. I'll be fading a team making
a long cross country trip, so stay tuned for that,
all right. We had earlier some comments coming in. A
Commander in Chief series starts here. Adam, one of our
top commenters, one of our top contributors here on the
show each every week, Adam, thank you for tuning in again.
Speaker 1: Navy air Force.
Speaker 2: He notes the totals in at fifty one and a
half fifty two depending on look defense.
Speaker 1: Is that bad this year? Is what he wants to know.
Speaker 2: Obviously, the trend has always to bet the under in
these Service Academy games. Steve, what do you think here?
It is a little peculiar to see a total this
high when Air Force is playing Navy.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I love that Ralph's on with us right now because
Ralph knows I ask him each year when I do
my Army Navy video for the up to hit it numbers,
and I've got him somewhere on the computer. Ralph, you
could probably pull them up. Like Brian said, the under
has been a pure play. And what I love about
Ralph's charts is, you know, you can look back over
the last twenty years and see the over unders, and
we used to get twenty fifteen years ago, totals in
the low fifties and it just were easy unders. And
now we've getting totals down in the thirties and they're
still going under for the most part. And for those
that are new viewers, those are new to college football handicapping.
The reason we say the under is a blind play
in the Service academy games is because Army, Navy, Air Force,
and the Marines, if they had a football team, would
all run the triple option because they have to do
more with less. They have smaller, undersized linemen and when
you can't go head to head with the team, you
have to do something gimmicky, and they still run the
triple option. And when you're running the ball NonStop keeps
the clock moving. That's part of it. You also don't
get as many big plays. You're not getting the quick
scores of seventy yard touchdown passes. But the main reason
it works with the Service academies playing each other is
because the defenses are more used to stopping the offenses
because they see the option in practice. And it's a
trend that's been well over seventy almost eighty percent of
times over the past couple decades. Just blindly playing the
under and Air Force Navy Army, Navy, Army, air Force,
however you want to mix it. When they match up,
it's under or pass. I have been passing in recent
years because the lines have been inflated. This one is
not the case. Fifty two to fifty two and a half.
And by the way, I'm looking at the odds live
your stream right now, one fifteen Eastern Live Thursday on
wager Talk TV, and that total is lighting up. It's
jumping around from fifty two to fifty two and a half.
At fifty one's the key number. Got a three percent
chance of game lands exactly on fifty one under a
pass for me in this one, unless we're missing something.
I don't think the teams are gonna start airing it
out all of a sudden.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I don't mean this step on Ralph's toes here, Ralph,
I'll send it to you next. But it is since
two thousand and five, I've got unders in these Service
Academy games at forty.
Speaker 1: Six twelve and two.
Speaker 2: So you've made a lot of money if you'd invent
the unders of those games again forty six to twelve
to two. But to the commoner's point. Air Forces defense
has been bad this year. They're four and oh to
the over coming into this game.
Speaker 3: So yeah, Brian, real quick on that.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at the numbers now the last three games
they've given up two eighty seven, three ten, four point
fifty seven passing yards.
Speaker 3: You know. It's like, are we too worried about that
in this game?
Speaker 4: So that's another reason you really have to dig in deeper, ye, Ralph,
your thoughts on this one.
Speaker 5: Again. I looked at Steve numbers that were Academy games
with forty seven or higher. Yeah, six and twenty three,
so seventy nine percent to the under. So we haven't
seen many. But it's simple for me again, I am
not going to bet it over in it. I don't
care how good the offenses look, you know, so it's
under a lean, but I am worried about Air Force
what they've given up lately. And we also see air
Force has been sacked six times. I mean that's massive.
That's nine point two percent. They throw on the ball
only sixty five times, they've been sacked six times. That's
almost one out of every time. Ten times you go
back maybe one stack, you know, on forty five passes.
But I just look at the rush games Navy on
offense rushing six point five yards per carry, on defense
three point zero, air force five point one and four
point eight. So we have a five point one air
force offense against the three point zero defense edge Navy,
and we have a six point five offense versus a
four point eight defense edge Navy. Again, where to lay
double digits in this kind of service academy? But I
do like Navy and would lean under.
Speaker 3: Okay, there we go.
Speaker 1: Remember Navy obviously, still they're in the American.
Speaker 2: Obviously the American has that prize still dangling of the
G five playoff spot there as well. I mean, this
is obviously not a conference game, but still you don't
want to drop anything if you are a G five team.
Michigan State Nebraska, let's talk about this here big time
that we'll get back to our rundown proper. Adam likes
the over forty nine, but can't decide on the side
eleven and a half twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: Maybe we want to help him here. I like Nebraska
in this game.
Speaker 2: Look, we know they struggle in close games, but this
is a game where obviously the oddsmakers expecting it. They're
expecting a double Edgit win. I think Nebraska is clearly
the better team. I would sign with the court Huskers.
Speaker 3: Steve.
Speaker 4: How about you, Yeah, we'll start off with my my simulation.
I've got Nebraska on average winning by sixteen and a
half points. I've got them as the better offense and
defensive team. The defensive edge is their biggest edge in
this game. And you point out, you know, a spot
in which they probably have some motivation, Brian to win
by margin here and then, as we saw Oregon do
against Michigan State this season, it is possible to do so.
This Michigan State team is a lot weaker than recent additions.
They did get the cover last week by losing by
just fourteen points against USC. Otherwise they've been a fay team.
Nebraska or pass for me, and I do think we
get some line value, Ralph.
Speaker 5: Thanks for bringing that up, Steve. I was on USC
last week and they put up three hundred and thirty
seven yards, but I think sixty came on that touchdown
pass with two minutes to go to get him that
backdoor cover. Again, they allowed Boston College four hundred and
fifty seven yards they allowed USC five hundred and twenty
three yards. Now they're playing another road game, and you know,
we've had so much hype with Matt Ruhle and Dylan Royola.
But I think it's legit now seventy six percent with
eleven to one ratio. But I do have to preface
against the number one hundred and twenty nine schedule, but
they are number six in yards per game diff and
while they've played a week schedule, I still like to
quantify how well they've done by giving you their rank
compared to what those opponents average in the other game.
So on offense, they are number nineteen in the country,
averaging one hundred and thirty three yards more than their
opponents normally allow. And on defense they're top ten. They're
number nine, holding those foes to one hundred and sixty
five yards per game under their average. By the way,
Michigan State number seventy nine and number fifty nine on
offense and defense. I do like Nebraska. I do believe
the hype this year because I am a big Matt
roll fan. If you look at his progressions from Temple
from season one to season two to season three, same
thing at Baylor, from season one to season two to
season three. We are in season three of Matt Ruhl.
I am a Cornhuskers fan.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go.
Speaker 2: Let's some love for Nebraska, Adam says Glad I asked,
did not expect a consensus there. Let's go back to
our Rundown guys, because we've got some questions coming in
on games that we knew we would be talking about here, guys,
any other games that you're thinking of, Hey, we want
your guys' thoughts on it. Feel free to keep fired away.
We'll get the Johnny. We'll get to your question on
tonight's game, Sam Houston State and New Mexico State to
college football really taking a backseat to the Major League
Baseball playoffs in the NFL. Then I bets Okay, it's
a game and somebody's gonna cash there. Let's talk Texas
and Florida. What do you say, because we've had a
number of questions on that one. Colin says, do we
just take the under in Texas versus Florida? DJ Lagway
is more injured than people know. I'll say that Floria's
defensive line, we know it's banged up. Anyone who follows
me has followed me Freddy length of time knows that
it's gonna take every ounce of restraint in my body
to not want to bet Florida in this game. I
think that they're a lot better than that record. They
deserved a better fate against both LSU and Miami. But
you do have to wonder, Steve about them, what's going
on up here in the brain? Are they starting to
get mentally checked out? Is the Billy napi Or tenure
in Gainesville at fourteen minutes and fifty nine seconds, if
you will, arch MANNINGO has not looked good. So to
the commoner's point the under it seems logical. It seems
like a logical bet at face.
Speaker 4: Value, sentially about arch Manning. You know, I was thinking this.
I even said it to some people in the season began.
As I'm watching that Ohio State game in Week one,
I was like, it's amazing that someone who's considered like
the best quarterback in the country coming in is willing
to sit two two and a half years, you know,
to actually get some playing time. And I did have
the passing idea that maybe he's not as good as
it everybody thanks why he's staying there and he's getting
paid while he's doing it. Starting to think that might
be the case. Maybe he's not a superstar. So we'll see.
But then again, I'm not trusting Florida. I used the
Virginia Tech reference earlier and once again, my good friend
Daniel Loans he went to the NC State game last
week and he told me nine and a half ten,
all these guys were opting out, they've quit on the season.
Well what happened is that the guys didn't play and
they won outright as a doll because the guys that
wanted to play were in the lineup. You got the
intim coach there. So my point is, I'm not trusting
Florida yet. I do think, Brian, you're gonna get your
chance to play Florida here at some point this season.
But as you love, as you know, I love to say,
don't try to catch a falling knife, and the Gators
right now might be that falling knife.
Speaker 3: They are getting some extra line value.
Speaker 4: But you really got to handicap this game a little
bit differently and read between the lines and like, are
they going to show up and ready to play? With
that said, my simulation favors Texas by just three points.
Simulation doesn't do a really good job of factoring in
the intangibles, such as if players are going to play
hard or neither, you know, with the coach on maybe
the way out but it's Florida or pass for me
based online value. But I just don't know if I
want to catch that falling nine quite yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, both teams coming off buys. That's worth noting. And
you know something that we can quantify is this and
this again, Ralph would lead to an idea of playing
the under Texas yards per play number one defense of
the country Florida's offense yards per play number one hundred
and eighteen. So it may be tough with an injured
DJ Lagway for the Gators. I mean, I think we
would all agree, the three of us everyone in the
comment section, that you know it's gonna be tough for
the Gators to move.
Speaker 1: The ball to score in this game.
Speaker 5: Well, Florida has played the number two toughest schedule, so
you know, you look at their stats, they're number sixty
four plus forty four yards per game despite being one
and three. Why well, let's see, has something to do
with turning the ball over at USF minus one, minus
four turnovers in the five interception game at LSU, back
to back road games, then having a good to Miami
putting up one hundred forty one yards. It doesn't matter
how much I like Florida. It's just a team I'm
not going to back. But I have no interest in
backing Texas. I did take a look. I of course,
we have one of the biggest games in the SEC
on deck, Red River Rivalry, you know, next week. So
I looked at what Texas has done prior to Oklahoma.
They actually had covered three straight games last year. Though
the game before Oklahoma they were thirty eight and a
half point favored against Mississippi State, they only won by
twenty two thirty five to ten. But I did go
look at a system as well. If you are a
top ten team playing an unranked team with a top
ten team on deck, this surprise the heck got of me.
Since two thousand and eight two forty three and one
seventy two, that is fifty nine percent against the spread.
So those people that say, oh, there's no way I
can back Texas because they're going to be looking ahead
to playing a top ten team opponent that has not
historically been the case. Those teams have performed well. Obviously,
if you're a top ranked team this late in the season,
you're a well coached team and you are focused. So
I expected some negative look ahead numbers. Found exactly the
opposite of what I thought we'd see.
Speaker 1: That's always interesting when I do when that happens.
Speaker 4: Go ahead, Steve, I was gonna say, Ralph, I love
that because back in like the early to mid nineties,
when I started almost thirty years ago, and we didn't
have the database capabilities we have now, I did this
by hand almost I did an NBA back test on that,
and I was blown away as well that teams normally
played pretty well when they had a big game on deck,
and they're again it's tough to quantify ahead of time.
Speaker 3: I love how you use the ranking.
Speaker 4: That's a very quantifiable thing because you can say is
the team ranked is next week's team ranked as of now?
But that held up in the NBA thirty some years
ago when I first tested it. And my point is
in any sports, I don't use the look ahead angle much.
In handicap, and I used to let down angle a
lot more. And you know, I've talked about that here
with Washington, they're off a tough loss. And by the way,
from new viewers, I think letdowns happen more after tough
losses than big wins. Everyone always talks about, you know,
celebrating the big upset when it can happen if you
overlook a team, But it also energizes you, especially nineteen
twenty year old kids. Whereas you score only six points
in a huge home game last week and now travel
cross country to Maryland, like we were talking about Washington.
Speaker 3: Those are the letdown spots that worry me, wore. But
I love that.
Speaker 4: Back test Ralph because I think it makes a lot
of sense. And here's the reason it makes sense. They
don't look ahead because they might not win next week.
They got to get the win now because they know
next week is not a winnable game. So I think
that's another reason that angle makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: All right, that is Texas Florida for you.
Speaker 5: There.
Speaker 2: We're gonna get to Houston hosting Texas Tech in just
a minute. Butt on halfway through the program, So well,
what do you say?
Speaker 1: Three of us will let you know what we've got
going on. All of us have got going.
Speaker 2: On this weekend over at wager talk dot com. It
is another big weekend of action. I will let you on,
guys all before I let these guys talk about they
have I'll let you guys know I have a very
rare five percent max bet going on Saturday. Do not
do these very often on My last five five percent
play was Week two of the NFL season and it
saw the Atlanta Falcons plus the three and a half.
They did not need those that plus the three and
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Speaker 1: So this is our We went.
Speaker 2: Three and all last year with five percent constable plays,
did lose our first one this year, but very very confident.
This is my strongest controable play this season so far.
So WT dot buzz SLASHVP, go and get it right now, Steve.
Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks Brian. First of all, thank you for having
me on. It was my understanding. I'll be on with
Ross Benjamin, so a little discipline. I'm just kidding filling
in for Ross to that. Do appreciate it, it's a joke.
I do appreciate being on a fun show covering some
great in depth analysis here and it's getting me primed
also by the way to do my Top twenty five
videos some other standalone videos here for college football. Those
will be up here the Thursday evening. Also, NFL Fade
the Public will be up a little bit earlier this week.
We're going to try that out to get it to
everybody in advance. It over fifty six thousand views the
last two Sundays on the Fade the Public video and
Fade in the Public has been very profitable so far
this season in the NFL. Speaking of pro football, I've
got two advanced plays up now, also a bonus free
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I really wanted to get in front of some of
these lines, and there is still line value in all
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buy it in advance, you don't have to wait till
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which I have locked in loaded, you'll get my college
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Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely the Weekend Warrior Pass. And not only can
you take.
Speaker 2: Advantage that with Steve, you could take advantage that with
myself or the man of the middle there on your screen,
mister Ralph, Michael, Ralph, what do you got going on here?
Speaker 3: Though you don't, do.
Speaker 5: Not buy my Weekend Warrior guys good. I have a
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five percent nine and one, as well as sixteen and
two eighty nine percent. Ross. Hopefully you're watching a couple
people are asking Cody. I just saw Cody asked about you.
Ross has been ill under the weather, and I can
tell you this. I want to give Ross a shout out.
There's a lot of people in this industry that would
just keep throwing crap up if they're sick, just to
get a play up and try to get some sales.
Ross just says, listen, I don't want to force plays.
I'm not one hundred percent thinking clearly. I'm just going
to pass for a few days. So I do admire
and that of him, and that's why he's part of
wager talk. And you know the group of handicappers we
have are so responsible towards our viewers and our followers.
I think that's really what sets us apart.
Speaker 1: Yes, like we said at the outset, get better soon.
Speaker 5: Ross.
Speaker 2: We know we missed you, and obviously happy, very happy
that Steve was able to step in and do the
show here.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get back to the games, guys. The
games that the people.
Speaker 2: Want to know about Houston and Tech Tech was asked
about earlier in the show.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let all of you know.
Speaker 2: If you've been following some of you have been following along,
you may already know this. I have invested in both
of these teams. Actually, if you caught the preseason version
of the Power Five, you know that I said to
bet Houston over six and a half wins. I feel
very good about that bet right now. Bet Another bet
that I made more recently was Texas Tech to win
the Big twelve. I think they are head and shoulders
better than the rest of this conference, and that is
why they are laying double digits on the road to
this Houston team. Steve, what do you think tex I
don't want to lay I'll tell you this.
Speaker 1: I like tex Tech. I don't want to lay.
Speaker 2: You can probably count the number of times in one
hand in the last decade that I've laid double digits
with a team on the road in college football. As
a matter of fact, this might still have five fingers
if you wanted to count that. But what do you
think Texas Tech? How's their future looking in the Big Twelve?
I have them power rated by far as the best
team in this conference, So talk to me about this
this one.
Speaker 3: I agree.
Speaker 4: I think they're the better team in this game. And
this line's gotten away from you a bit. I sawt
open ten, even an eight a half, maybe a look
aheadline at some point. It's now eleven and a half,
and I actually my simulation has Texas Tech by just
eight and a half. I do think the home field
is worth something here with the team that's off to
a four to start, as you mentioned with Houston unranked,
I believe still if they pull the upside here, they
will definitely be right next week getting some additional votes.
Texas Tech probably wins this one, but I think you've
missed the number at this point at eleven eleven and
a half, and it does even though it's an in
state game, looks like a tough spot here, a game
that could stay a little bit closer than expected. I'm
not sure Houston could pull the outright win, but I
do think the lines inflated. I would lean towards the
dog here. One thing about Texas Tech. Very good offensive
team on the season, fifty two points a game, ten
and a half yards per play, I'm sorry, seven and
a half yards per play, ten yards per pass. Every
time they throw the ball, they getting a first down
on average. And this Houston pass defense has been fantastic
four point nine. A loud against a punnis at average
is six point seven. So yes, the Houston defense has
been really strong, but they have not faced any offense
like this Texas Tech attack.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting thing. I mean, that was one
of the reasons I like the over six and a
half ralph pre season. Is this Houston Houston's defense we
could question do they face so far, but going back
to last year, it's been a good defense for Willie
Fritz and this is an interesting matchup here. Adam brought
up a good point in our chat here. Houston got
a little lucky last week. They laid an egg early.
They went on the road. It was a Friday night
game in Corvallis against a winless Oregon State team. They
dug themselves an early hole. The Coopers were able to
climb out and win the game. But what do you
think here with Houston hosting Texas Tech in a Big
Big twelve matchup?
Speaker 5: At power ratings right now, the best team in the
Big twelve, I have them at an eighty four with
TCU seventy eight. I have them six points better than TCU.
Just to so completely agree with you. This is a game,
another game you have to take with a grain of
salt just because of the strengths of schedules. You know, sorry,
you know I should have had this pulled up my
secretary sleeping or something. We I talked about Maryland being
like one ninety six. Texas Tech is number two hundred
and seventeen. That means eighty FCS teams have played better
schedules than Texas Tech. That's why they're number two in
the country plus three hundred and thirty four yards per game.
They're number one in the country at plus at plus
four h five yallards per play, and Houston obviously not
a good schedule either. They're like one hundred, but again
far better than Texas Tech. I really don't have an
opinion here. I would lean the under because both teams
are playing the toughest defenses they faced. I actually would
have said Utah is a better defense than Houston. But
so far this year, the most surprised I've been through
five weeks or six weeks wherever we are, was the
way Texas Tech manhandled Utah on the road on both
sides of the ball, I mean, rushing for four point
seven and one seventy three, holding them to three point three. Folks,
this is not the air raid Texas Tech team we're
used to. Joey McGuire has done a fantastic job. I
think they spent what twenty six million dollars, so yeah,
money can buy you. This isn't the New York Mets
guys that have that type of banko. I think they
were number two in the NIL this year. They've They've
got some big oil alums and they've taken advantage of it.
So lean under. No real opinion on the side for me.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you go.
Speaker 2: Hopefully that helps you guys out Here's more help is
being asked for guys, as we have an interesting line
Cincinnati hosting Iowa State. Iowa State is the fourteenth ranked
team in the country, but they are a slight underdog
to unranked Cincinnati. This would be the second instance this
season of an unranked team being favored over a top
twenty five opponent. The first it was last week Arizona State.
Things did not look early for them, but they came
back and did defeat a ranked TCU team. It depends
what number, whether or not they covered for you or not.
It's spending when you met the game, if you got
if you were lucky enough to get Arizona State minus
two and a half, you covered because of course they
won by three. Some of you may have pushed, but
it's always been Steve kind of you know, a thing
where people look for these spots unranked teams. The odds
makers are telling you something when they got an unranked
team favored over a top twenty five opponent. And Iowa
State in case if you guys missed the news, both
of their starting quarterbacks are out now. They both are injured,
and that is going to be a big loss against
a Cincinnati team that put up six hundred yards of
offense last week, and.
Speaker 5: They were both all Big twelve last year. Brian, Yes, Man,
you can lose your starting quarterbacks. That's one thing. Losing
multi year starting quarterbacks that are all conference puts it
at a whole different level.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's interesting the line did not move.
Speaker 2: I don't know if people, you know, a lot of
betters haven't that hasn't filtered down to them or not.
But Cincinnati steve put up six hundred yards offense, and
this was one of the craziest I always go through
the recaps and the box scores every week, like I
know you guys do. One of the craziest things I
found last week in count football Cincinnati not only did
they go to Kansas and pull the outright up set
with six hundred yards total offense, they had four touchdowns
called back because of penalties, so they could have scored
even more. I don't know what it says for the
discipline of this Bearcats team, but I think we can
see why they're maybe favored here against Iowa State at home.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can't. You can't fix bad offense. This is
something between coaching and handicapping now for decades that I've
come to realize is like, you know, defense a lot
of times talent, but it's also intensity, it's mindset. You
can't all of a sudden just fix a bad offensive team.
So my point is when you have an explosive offense,
it always catches my eye. Yes, you might lose in shootouts,
but I'll tell you a team that's similar is Virginia.
Not my Virginia Cavaliers. They played, yes, my Willy and
Mary Tribe a few weeks ago. I turned the game
on on the radio. Mid third quarter. It was fifty
two to seven Virginia at six hundred and twenty five yards.
They were forty away from the all time school record
in the middle of the third quarter, went on to
gain seven hundred yards, put up over six hundred and
some against Stanford, and as we saw last Friday night, Oh,
the Cavaliers are actually for real because they moved against
Florida State also, So I'm not going to discount Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: No matter who you're playing.
Speaker 4: When you're putting up six hundred plus yards of offense,
even against Sisters of the Poor, you can move the ball.
And now you've got an Iowa State team that's not
going to be at full strength. That could be a problem.
I'm not sure they can keep up in this game.
And I think this is a situation where Cincinnati's offense
is better. Yes, Iowa State has the better defense. But
something else, guys, I'm starting to feel in college football
in recent years is that better offenses be better defenses.
We see that in the playoffs. The championship games are
off at high scoring and I make this game up
Cincinnati by one of my simulation. With the injuries. It's
a little tricky, but if the Bearcats are passed for me,
I think they're gonna explode well offensively in this one.
Speaker 1: Ralph, what do you think?
Speaker 5: I actually agree quite a bit with Steve. I'm just
going to come to a little different result. You know,
Campbell's been a good dog in this price range, an
excellent dog. But I look at Cincinnati. You guys had
talked about the offense and what they've done. They're number
three in the country averaging eight point one yards per play.
You look at Iowa State, and I think you said
this last week Brian, and we agreed. I mean, if
you want to take one team that doesn't deserve to
be ranked being where they are, I mean that's it.
Their entire their entire stat profile is based on the
fifty five to seven win against South Dakota. You play
Kansas State, you get out gained by seventy yards. You
play Iowa you only have two hundred and thirty yards
of offense, but you win the turnover battle. Arkansas State.
You only have four hundred and fifty two yards against
Arkansas State, and then Arizona you had three hundred and
ninety nine yards. So to me, you look at the
stat profile, their averages on offense number seventy five, their
averages on defense number sixty one. Since he does score,
can Iowa State keep it close with rock Obec? I
am not so sure, but I think the way I
would go on this is Cincinnati over twenty six and
a half team total.
Speaker 1: Oh I like that look. I like that look. I
will say this.
Speaker 2: I'll own it, own it we as we always own
our losses.
Speaker 1: Here on the program.
Speaker 2: I was on Arizona last week against IWA Tate and
that was not a good call in retrospect.
Speaker 1: But I will say this all of you.
Speaker 2: You know I joked earlier at the top of the
program at setting Steve is nil check. Well, I'll send
all of you watching your CLV Trophy because I gave
that play out in Arizona plus six and a half.
And I don't know if you guys saw this on Saturday,
all the money came in on Arizona. They closed plus
three and a half. You got three points of Clinton
out with the bet loss. So I mean all we
could do was shin a trophy and then red. But still,
I mean people were betting heavily against this Iowa State
team last week and the fact that that happened now
they're a dog to a top twenty an unranked opponent
I think speaks volumes about what's going on in ames.
Good friend of mine watching the show, Clint, you might
be the person that I bet on Texas Tech with
he and I may have some money invested in Texas Tech.
He brings up another game, and this is an interesting
situation because normally we see these When we see these
unranked teams favored over a top twenty five opponent, it's
by three or less. Steve right, it's not huge. I mean,
just the fact that they're favored is noteworthy. Well, do
I have a story to tell about the Virginia Cavaliers
who have climbed into the top twenty five after that
thrilling victory over Florida State, Virginia's number twenty four of
the country. They're getting seven this week at Louisville. This
we usually do not I agree with, but we don't
see unranked teams favored by more than a field goal.
But he likes Louisville still.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I.
Speaker 2: Know that sometimes those money parlays can come back to
bite you, but I almost think Louisville might be a
moneyline parlay piece in This is the way I was
thinking at it, because it is a heavy number delay
with the Cardinals here, especially since they were down big
early to Pitt last week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say, I'm gonna contradict myself in
this one. I always say that letdowns happen more after
tough losses than big wins. Well, this might be the
exception to the rule. I'd be very careful with Virginia
this week. Okay, at craelf's database can test this. When
five thousand fans storm rusts the field and stumple like
thirty of their classmates, what's the result of following. I
mean that that was like a bowl unflowing and the
funny thing is that the play had barely ended. I
mean that that's the play had barely ended. I mean
they would have been a mess if they had to
call everyone back. It'd been like Stanford Twine's twenty. But
this looks like a tough scheduleing spot. And as you know,
overtime results teams off of losses and overtime I think
are worse, but just off an overtime game. In general,
you gotta be very careful on college ball because it's
it just uses so much emotion and energy. And that
win was as big as they've had in decades. With
that said, they could still cover and not win this game.
But I actually project to Louisville by eight, and that
is not really factoring in the emotional letdown angle. And
I still think there's a little bit of line value.
The line is currently six and a half minus fifteen
in some spots. If you like Louisville, I would lay it.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 4: If you like Virginia, maybe you catch a plus seven.
It's a three thirty Eastern kickoff Saturday. But I would
lay it with Louisville minus six and a half. And
Brian meant to mention this earlier I love these top
twenty five angles.
Speaker 3: Shoot me the notes.
Speaker 4: I will give you a shout out every week in
the video, just like I do with Ralph when he
sends me good stuff. You put me onto the college
basketball a couple of years ago, and you know, I
talked a lot about the unranked favorites. I do that
college basketball top twenty five video in the spring. But
I think it makes a lot of sense as well,
and it also goes towards my faith the public video
a little bit, which I love to fade public underdogs,
and I think whenever you're getting a ranked team as
an underdog against a non ranked team, it's by default
probably a public dog as well.
Speaker 3: So that's why it.
Speaker 2: Works absolutely all right, Ralph, what do you think, bigger
number than usual with the unranked team against the top
twenty five fall. I guess the oddsmakers are really telling
what you think. They think of Virginia's top twenty five
ranking year. They don't think, really concur that the Who's
should be in the top twenty five.
Speaker 5: Well, their often should be. You know, I'm looking, I'm
having some trouble. I was trying to look at what
unranked things are. I'll have that for next week. But
you know, you look at Louisville and fifty one to
seventeen win, Eastern Kentucky twenty eight to fourteen win against
James Madison. Now, James Madison is a great defense, so
them only scoring two hundred and sixty four yards is
a bit of a concern at home. But we've seen
how good the Dukes have been after that Bowling Green.
They did what they had doing last week against Pittsburgh.
It was very misleading to me because they were plus
four turnovers, and we talked about any college football team
that's plus four turnovers, you know, you're gonna win ninety
five percent of the time, and maybe even more than that.
You know, I was on the over last week for
Virginia and Florida State, you know, and four hundred and
forty yards you got out gained by five hundred and
fourteen yards. But they did what they had to do,
running the ball for over two hundred and eleven, you know,
and they pressured enough. They had five sacks against Stanford
in two sacks against Florida. You know, Louisville number thirty
four and number twenty six on offense, but they average
and defense holding their foes. Virginia number thirteen and number
fifty three. Last week against Pittsburgh Louisgo ran eighty four plays.
Last week against Florida State, Virginia ran eighty four plays.
Tell you what give me the over?
Speaker 4: All?
Speaker 1: Right, there we go. The over is Ralph's Look there, guys.
Speaker 2: Yes, people are asking I'm sure you're gonna get to
Miami a Florida State.
Speaker 1: The answer is absolutely yes. That will be coming up
in just a minute.
Speaker 2: But first, Steve mentioned just a few moments ago about
but he referenced that tremendous field storming by the Virginia
fans after the upset of Florida State. Now, those Virginia fans,
they're able correct me if I'm wrong here, Steve. They're well,
they're standing on the grass. That's what made it such
a quick access.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it is like a hill. There's like, yeah, I
don't think there's even a there is no fan. I mean,
it's lowally a hill. And that's what happens when you
allow people to watch a top twenty five national TV
game on a hill.
Speaker 3: I guess is that's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what I don't think there's ever been
a top twenty five game you can watch on this hill.
But you know where else you can watch football on
a hill at college football the corner A Route six
point eighty two and Richland Avenue Peden Stadium in beautiful Athens, Ohio.
My alma mon Ohio University, and Adam wants to know
the line here seems a little short with Ohio and
ball State.
Speaker 1: I'll take this one, being that it's by Alba Monter.
Speaker 2: I would not bet Ohio, Oh you in this game, Adam,
I wouldn't.
Speaker 1: Ball State is off a bot. Now there is a problem.
Speaker 2: Now I would just pass on the game now because
the issue with betting against Ou in this game is
that you would be forced to put your harder dollars
on balls State. And ball State is very very bad.
But oh you, look the market did not like oh
you last week. They bet people were betting Bowling Green
like they knew the final score. Bobcats got to win
and cover. Okay, but the defense is banged up. Ball State,
like I mentioned, rested off a bye i Ohio.
Speaker 1: Last two years.
Speaker 3: Guys.
Speaker 1: I'll admit it. The alma honor has been better than
I expected.
Speaker 2: But I don't know if I want to lay double
digits in this spot, even though Ball State Ralph is
absolutely futreing, so this would be a pass for me.
Speaker 5: Pe O'Brian, I did get that that info from the database,
just to let's quantify. Keep talking about when we talk
about situations. Well, guys, since twenty and sixteen, unranked favorites
against rake opponents, like two games we just talked about
Louisville and then Cincinnati, Iowa State fifty six fifty six
and three fifty against the spread. Okay, unranked favorites of
three or more thirty eight and thirty six fifty one
point four. So those unranked teams that are favorites are
even money or just slightly above them. And doz the
line as a favorite of a field goal or more.
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go there.
Speaker 2: Let's go to Miami and Florida State. This is another
game at the outset of the show, Guys, I brought
up lower ranked teams and top twenty five matchups have
been getting the job done thirteen and two against the spread,
twelve and three straight up. That trend would favor Florida State.
This week, Florida State off the loss to Virginia obviously
that we just mentioned. They are hosting a Miami team
that has looked as good as anybody in the country.
They are arrested the Caynes. I'll be honest with my
power raise. I made this line closer pick them. I'm
probably going to be on Florida State. I'll let you
guys know that right now. I'm interested to hear what
these guys have to say. I just think, what would
this would this number? What would it have been if
Florida State hadn't lost to Virginia, Steve, I don't I
think we would have been getting over a field goal
with the Knoles.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna check right now.
Speaker 4: One thing I love about the Odds logic odd screen
is that you can click on the history of the
sports books. I'm gonna click on DraftKings right now as
we're doing this live and see if I can see
a lot, because you don't find a lot of look
aheads in college football, but you know, DraftKings is one
that often does it. Now, the opener it's saying was six.
That was on September twenty eighth, which would have been
what Sunday. So yes, yeah, the line opened six of
DraftKings is down to four and a half. I favor
Miami by about two in this one. So I do
like Florida State. My concern is what we've talked about
here is that this could be a possible letdown spot.
Speaker 3: I know it's a huge rival game.
Speaker 4: I do like the factor at home, though, I will
point that out is I think a letdown is a
little less likely when your frat, you know, in front
of your home fans rockets arena, whether it's basketball or
a big field advantage. And this is seven thirty East
and Saturday night as well, so I think the home base,
the home crowd will will a little energy for Florida State.
And I also like the factor in explosive offense. I
talked about last year they had that flop against Georgia
TI as a top ten team in the opener, they
scored twenty one. Well, they didn't do anything better than
that all season. Take out their FCS game. I think
it was like Charleston Southern or somebody. They scored sixteen
or less than their other ten FPS games last year,
and then they come out and they scored thirty one
against Bama. I don't think they did it with the overtime,
but it was pretty close. They will definitely do it
this week. After this week, if they haven't already done it,
I have to check, they will have more points scored
than all of last year against all eleven FBS opponents.
So this Florida State's a different breed this year.
Speaker 3: I like the Seminoles.
Speaker 2: Okay, Ralph, this is Steve obviously mentioned that this is
a big rivalry game. I will point out that the underdog,
whichever team that has been, has had some success going
back to two.
Speaker 1: Thousand and five.
Speaker 2: Underdog in this rivalry is fourteen and six against the
spread with nine outright upsets, So that points to the
knowles here. But they are coming off the loss against
the rest of Miami team that has looked great.
Speaker 5: What do you think here, Steve, I'm just looking right now.
Last you're including the Charleston Southern game of forty one
to seven, scored one hundred and eighty five points. They
have two hundred and twelve already after four months, so
that sort of quantifies it. I'll tell you what, guys,
you look and you're talking about offenses that are elite.
You know, Florida State is number four, excuse me, number one,
averaging six hundred yards. Miami has number twenty nine averaging
four hundred and fifty one yards. But again a massive
strength of schedule difference here Miami twenty six, Florida State
one to eleven. Florida State also has been playing very
fast seventy three point three plays per game, that's number sixteen.
Miami top forty in plays per game. So we have
good offenses, we have excellent offenses, we have fast tempo.
So why in the heck would I be giving out
the under. This is one of the matchups that teams
are going to play much different than they've had being
a conference game. Yes, Miami played Notre Dame, but again
remember only three hundred and twenty four yards and sixty
nine plays and they beat Florida. They ran seventy six plays.
But now conference teams in state rivals that know each
other better, you tend to play more conservatively, especially early.
You don't want to lose the game by making a mistake.
I feel you run the ball early. I actually lean
under full game, and I'm peer I'm gonna give out
first half under the total. So I expect these teams
to get it going later. I think they start slow,
feel each other out and get off to a slow start.
Speaker 1: Okay, slow start, says Ralph Fair down at Tellasse.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, it is come to that time in
the show where all three of us give out a
best bet for the show. But we will also tell
you again. We're just gonna remind you what we've gotten
going on this weekend here at wager talk dot com. Again,
I have a five percent max bet locked and loaded
for Saturday in college football. The last time I had
a five percent max bet was Week two of the
NFL when the Atlanta fal because a three and a
half point underdog, took care of business against the Minnesota
Vikings in a twenty two to six outright win. For
my free play here on the show today, I'm gonna
give you an underdog Cal plus three versus Duke. Why
do we like Cal here, Well, this is another one
of those cross country trips, guys, that Duke is having
to make. I really dislike this spot for the Blue
Devils going on the road. Late night kickoff, we talked
about the West Coast teams. We don't like it when
they start early. Well, I don't like when East Coast
teams have to start late. This game kicks off at
ten to thirty pm Eastern. With conference expansion, there's been
a lot of focus rightly selling teams making these cross
country tips and not faring well.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: Last week, Cal, interestingly enough, did go to BC across
the country and win outright as a six and a
half point underdog twenty eight twenty four. But something we
talked about earlier in the show, that was a three
thirty Eastern kickoff, So I don't think you know the
start time wasn't an issue for the Bears. It was
a nice bounce back after the terrible loss they suffered
on the road two weeks ago as two touchdown favorites
at San Diego State. Last time here at Berkeley, whatd
Cal do? They beat another team that had to come west,
that was Minnesota. Bears won That won twenty seven to
fourteen as three point underdogs. Love the freshman quarterback for
Cal Jks. He's the reason the team has been better
than expected. This was a team under Justin Wilcox that
was projected to finish it near the bottom of the ACC.
Now I think they're more middle of the pack. As
for Duke Not only are they flying across the country
for a late kickoff.
Speaker 1: But this is really key. This stuck really stuck out
to me.
Speaker 2: This guy's is Duke's fifth consecutive game where the line
is four points or less. So they've had a lot
of competitive matchups in a row with no buy in between.
I had him at home in a must win spot
two weeks ago versus NC State that was a three
percent client play.
Speaker 1: Last week, the Duke won that one.
Speaker 2: They won last week as well, taking advantage of a
Syracuse team that had previously lost its starting quarterback to
a season in the ending injury. I just wonder what
the Blue Devils have left to the tank guys. This
is a team I expected to take a step back
in twenty twenty five. Yes, many Diez's team didn't go
five and three straight up in ACC play last season,
but they were only favored in three of those games
and outgained by an average of fifty five yards per game.
Did benefit from a plus five turnover margin. So if
Cal takes care of the football here, I believe the
Bears pull the late night upset in the old Drew
Martin late night degenerate special spot. So I'm riding with
cal plus three. Don't forget about that five percent max.
But I've got a currently available for sale WT Dot Buzz,
Slash VP and the Weekend Warrior Pass for just fourteen
extra dollars to get the complete card as well. Steve Merrill,
thank you for joining us here on the program this week.
It is now the floor is now. You're sir to
give us a free play and talk about and remind
us what you've got going for the weekend.
Speaker 4: I always appreciate being the floor being handed me from
the senator from Ohio, and I also thank Brian and
Ruff for allowing me to join them. I hope Ross
feels better, which was under better circumstances, but always great
to be here.
Speaker 3: Guys. It's a great show.
Speaker 4: We covered a lot of games, and don't forget I
cover even more games with free play videos right here
every week in college football wager Talk TV. Also my
College Football Top twenty five video deep dive into the
biggest games this weekend will be available later this evening
on Thursday, and then right around the corner my NFL
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think there's a betting edge in that game. Minnesota, Cleveland
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We touched on this game earlier with the under between
Navy and Air Force. I do like under fifty two,
but I like the side as well. In this one
Navy minus twelve. Now, it's a little bit of a hedge.
If the game does not stay under as it normally does,
then it's going to help us with the favorite. If
it stays under, maybe we don't get the favor, but
I think we could win both. And I like Navy
minus twelve because they're the better offense, they're the better defense,
and the matchup favors, and they're also at home in
this one. Early kickoff, by the way, noon Eastern, which
is probably ten am for the Flyboys. I'm sure they
travel well. And normally we don't look to fade military
teams as a dog or option teams as a dog
because they often keep the game close, but I don't
think that's going to the case in this one. The
reason this total is in the fifties for a Service
Academy game is because Air Force defense is really bad. Now,
given up ten yards per pass is terrible. I'm not
sure Navy will exploit that, but what does stand out
to me is air Force has given up over five
yards per carry, and that's a problem because Navy allows
just three yards per rush and both teams are going
to run the ball about eighty ninety percent of their
plays in this game. Huge rush, defensive edge for Navy.
That the better team on both sides of the ball.
And yes it's a rival game, but that also means
they have motivation to win by double digit and extend
the lead whenever possible. If you're going to play the side,
lay it with Navy minus twelve. That's at noon Eastern
on CBS National TV Game Saturday.
Speaker 2: All right, Steve says, to lay it with the midshipman
there in our first Commander in Chief game.
Speaker 3: Of the year.
Speaker 2: Ralph, you're going to tell the people to lay it
as well. We leave no stone unturned here on the blitz.
You picked an interesting matchup here as a James Madison
side that is a perfect four for four against the
number takes on a Georgia State team that is well'll
the complete opposite oh and four against the number. So
talk about this matchup in the sun Belt and what
you've got going on this weekend at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 5: Steve only the third double digit line for a Commander
in Chief game. Wow, Army, Remember last week late eighteen
and a half, they only won twenty to three last
year and then twenty thirteen, Navy laid thirteen to Air
Force and did cover twenty eight to ten. So that
goes all the way back to two thousand and five.
I think. So you know, Brian, you had said you
don't lay double digits on the road in college football.
I struggled to I am laying twenty points on the road,
and I actually think there's advantage and I'm going to
tell you why.
Speaker 1: Okay, number one.
Speaker 5: Let's remember this. Most college teams, I remember Nebraska used
to have like one hundred and thirty players, Oklahoma used
to You know, you're allowed to have an unlimited number
of players now at home, So if you have a
big lead, what happens You start bringing in the second string,
the third string, the fourth string, sometimes in the fifth string.
But when you travel, you are restricted. Some conferences are
seventy some conferences are seventy five. That means you basically
only have three strings playing on the road. And then
number two, when you're an offense like James Madison that
runs the ball, they have run the ball one hundred
and eighty six times, pass the ball only one hundred
five times, and by the way, they're averaging two hundred
and forty nine yards per game, rushing five point four
yards per carry, facing a team that's allowing two hundred
and twenty seven yards per game and five point six
yards per carry. Why is that important? Well, when you
have an air raid offense and you have a big
lead and you want to slow down the game, you
are completely out of sync running the ball. Your offensive
lineman no only know how to pass block. You're into
weird offenses. People don't know the plays. But if you're
a James Madison team that's gonna run the ball every time.
It doesn't matter. If you're the first string, doesn't matter,
if you're the second string, doesn't matter, if you're the
third string, You're gonna run the exact same office, regardless
of who who's in there or how big the lead is.
That's big when you could start breaking those rush attacks
like that. Plus James Madison plays at tempo, their top
twenty five in plays per game. Add it up. I
am not afraid to lay twenty points at Georgia State,
who allowed Mississippi sixty three points, who allowed Vanderbilt six
hundred thirty five yards and seventy points, and an offense
averaging two hundred and seventy five yards against FBSFOS. James Madison,
Folks is an actual client play for me, so take advantage.
Remember no weekend Warrior for me. Get the three day
all access. I have a Friday college football five percent
nine and one on those number two in college football
the last two years, number two in college football and
NFL combined.
Speaker 2: All right, James Madison, he was the fourth President of
the United States of America, and he is Ralph Michael's
best bet on the program this week. There you see
it the blitz our best bets here, Steve Merrill, he's
laying it with Navy against air Force.
Speaker 1: A rare opportunity to lay double.
Speaker 2: Digits the Commander in Chief game, Steve says, do it, Ralph,
he just told you why he likes JMU minus twenty
against Georgia State, and I in the eight night game
will take the three with Cal against Duke. We did
forget at least earlier in the show, but I have
not forgotten.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 2: There is a game tonight that you guys asked about
with Sam Houston State. We'll just hit that really quick
before we sign off here. Sam Houston one and four
straight up, Oh and four gets the spread this year,
they're a favorite on the road. That should tell you
about the quality of New Mexico State, who is number
one eighteen and yards per play margin despite playing the
weaker schedule. For me, what's the money line price on
Sam Houston State here? Because that's that's what I would do.
Speaker 1: You can there's two and a half out there.
Speaker 2: There's still some one and a half's if you shop around,
So let's see minus one twenty Yeah, minus one twentieth
FanDuel minus won twenty five at DraftKings. I'd play I
don't know if you guys have anything before we signed off,
but I would I would play Sam Houston State minus
one twenty.
Speaker 5: Just something small, Brian that you said strength of schedule,
Sam Houston number fourteen, New Mexico State number one sixty.
Enough said, And basically their yards per game are even
at those numbers. They're number one hundred twenty eight and
one hundred thirty four. So if you're number one hundred
and thirty four against the fourteenth schedule, that's why you're
alling four and favorite because New Mexico State is number
one twenty eight versus the number one hundred and sixty schedule.
I think the line should be higher, to be honest
with him.
Speaker 1: Bearcats with a K.
Speaker 2: Remember that it is Bearcats with a K in Sam
Houston's state and that Aggie for New Mexico state. He
looks like an angry individual. I wouldn't want to cross him.
All right, Steve, if you have anything else, if you
thank you for joining us.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you have anything on tonight's game, I'll.
Speaker 4: Tell you what so we can run. I've got a
full five to six minute video on this game with
a free play on the total. So what, it's free,
don't cost nothing right here on wager Talk TV. Check
it out free playing this game for Thursday nine a
long with the NFL game between the Rams and forty
nine Ers.
Speaker 3: So I'll leave it for people to watch the video afterwards.
Speaker 1: Awesome.
Speaker 2: All right, check that out, guys. Check out the new
edition of the Power five as well. That drop this morning.
I talk about all the interesting line moves that have
already transpired in college football and the NFL, and I
too talk about the Thursday night NFL game as well.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: For Ralph Michaels, for Steve Merrill, I am Brian Power.
This was another edition of The Blitz. Until next time,
let's cash the tickets.