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Speaker 1: Welcome in to the Opening Line Report, less than a

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week away from the super Bowl. We're gonna get into well,

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all things super Bowl today Teddy covers Journing Me. I'm

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Kelly Stewart, wager Talk dot Com.

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Speaker 2: Teddy.

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Speaker 3: We've got lots to talk about. But off the top

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of the show, we've got to walk back a little

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something from last week.

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Speaker 2: Sure, Sure, I mean, like we do with every show,

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we want to start with what the opening line is.

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It's called the Opening Line Report for a reason, and

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I give out an emergency betting alert last week on

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this show that was as wrong as wrong gets. And

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when that happens, I got to investigate and figure out why,

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and of course I got an explanation for exactly why

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that happened. But let's start with what the markets are

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doing right now. What have we seen since the opener?

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From a side standpoint, not much. There was a little

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bit of Seattle money early. Since that time, there's still

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a couple of fives out There's a handful of minus

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fives out there, mostly four and a halfs.

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Speaker 4: Some of the four and a halfs are with juice.

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Speaker 2: At this stage, it looks like Seattle's it's a two

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way action game. Seattle's taking a little bit more money

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than the New England, but it is not a game

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where we expect to see the books get sided. It's

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very clear, however, and we'll talk about it again when

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it comes to the emergency betting alert issue from last week.

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There is significant sharp support for the favorite in this

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ball game, and that explains at least part of the

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reason why my eba was wrong. From a total standpoint,

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we've seen a little bit of under money come in,

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so a little bit of Seahawks money at the open,

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nothing much sin still.

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Speaker 4: Four and a half five just about everywhere.

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Speaker 2: From a total standpoint, we've seen a little bit of

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under money.

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Speaker 4: There was some forty six's out there. Those aren't there anymore.

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They're forty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: The the markets split between forty five and forty five

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and a half right now, So we've seen a little

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bit of under money come in.

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Speaker 4: And of course, when you talk.

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Speaker 2: About Super Bowl figures, a little bit of under money

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is actually a lot of under money. But we've seen

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under money come in, but not anything crazy in that

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regard where we're seeing the line dive. So little bit

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of Seahawks money, a little bit of under money, and

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the books are anticipating two way action side in total

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as we go into the weekend. As we go into

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the week obviously with ninety percent of the wagers coming

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the last forty eight hours before kickoff.

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Speaker 3: Teddy, we're gonna get into some recent Super Bowl history.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get into the prop sheet, talk about the

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opening night at the West Gate, and of course take

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all of your questions.

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Speaker 3: So if you guys have a question for Teddy, drop

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it in the chat.

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Speaker 1: But first I wanted to talk about what you just

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mentioned in terms of what we're seeing now.

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Speaker 3: This is just a one isolated book.

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Speaker 1: I called John Murray this morning because I've got a

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ton of shows before I leave for San Francisco, and

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I said, hey, we're not doing a show today. I

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need to know for all my other shows what's going on.

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And he said, you know, crack. And I called him

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last week live on the show and said, hey, would

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you take a half a million dollars right now?

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Speaker 3: And he said no?

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Speaker 1: And I was shocked too, But that's because it depends

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what you want to bet. It depends what the.

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Speaker 3: Book's going to need.

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Speaker 1: And at that point in time, they were still almost

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two weeks out. So I said, hey, you guys moved

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to five on the Odds logic screen and he goes, yeah,

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it was kind of a test.

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Speaker 3: We wanted to see if we could get any support

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in the marketplace.

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Speaker 1: And I said, Andy, he goes, nada. So you just

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said that you think it's significant sharp guys coming in

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on the Seahawks. Nobody's coming back there on the five.

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But he did say he does not think this is

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going to get to six. He would be very, very

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surprised if this gets to six. And you mentioned as

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far as the total goes, and he said, hey, we're

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not going to book to need the under, and I

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said why not? And he goes, because we've got sixty

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percent of our handle on the props and guess what,

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eighty percent of those are all on the over. So sure,

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he said, it doesn't matter. We're going to be rooting

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for the under one way or another. We don't necessarily

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need to book for that side. So just a couple

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of things worth noting there.

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Speaker 4: And that's a really interesting point, all right.

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Speaker 2: That is better than especially for you casual guys out there.

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This is from the sportsbook director at the Westgates super

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book talking about how, yeah, we already have all of

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this other action that's pointed over, so we don't even

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take a position over year towards the over. And those

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type of little nuances, they're meaningful, you know, And certainly

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when it comes to why this book has posted this

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number at this time, it's very meaningful and when it

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comes of course, but I haven't I haven't explained away

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my emergency betting.

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Speaker 4: Alert that was wrong.

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Speaker 2: Oh yes, I has to be right off the bat,

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because last week I'm like, this is what happens in

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every super Bowl, and every super Bowl. Those who are

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betting the favorite bet the favorite minus the points. Those

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who are betting the underdog take the underdog on the

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money line, and it happens year in year out, year

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in year out. So that's why last Monday, I'm like, hey,

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we've seen already some Seattle money. There's plus one nineties

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is a prevailing number right now on the money line

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for New England. I gotta think the money's coming for

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the Patriots on the money line, not necessarily on the side,

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you know, from aside from a pointspread standpoint, but on

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the money line, and therefore there's urgency to bet it now.

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So there have been two key factors that worked that

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I was wrong about. First is the level of wise

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guy support for Seattle. It's very clear the wise guys

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like the favorite in this ball game.

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Speaker 4: So when you're talking.

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Speaker 2: About line moves two weeks out and ten days out

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and eight days out, and you know, that's not the

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recreational betters, that's the wise guys, and the wise guys

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are on the Seahawks laying the points with Seattle. It's

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pretty clear based on the line moves, pretty clear based

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on everyone I've talked to, And as you mentioned, Kelly,

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just a moment ago, you know, John Murray said, hey,

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let's test see we get the five, do we get

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any buy buy back? They did not get any buy

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back at five. So that tells you very clearly that

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from a sharp square standpoint, the Sharps do like the

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favorite in this one. And when the Sharp's like the favorite,

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they're not putting the dog on the money line ten

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days out.

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Speaker 4: So that was wrong.

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Speaker 2: But the bigger issue, Kelly, is the exchanges. You know,

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the Calci's, the poly markets of the world, and those

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exchanges when it comes to the you know, minus two

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thirty plus one ninety spread for the money line on

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the super Bowl that we were talking about last week,

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Those exchanges are more like minus two oh five plus

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two oh four, you know, minus two six plus two

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oh four. So the sharp money, the wise guys aren't

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betting these bets at the sportsbook anymore. They're betting them

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in the financial marketplace, where you can bet it at

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reduced juice. Therefore, the plus one ninety as an emergency

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betting alert. That's as bad as I get.

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Speaker 4: Guys.

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Speaker 2: Sorry, I do the best I can with these every week,

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and you don't like to get one like the super

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Bowl wrong, But I ain't perfect, and I will get

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stuff wrong, and I got this one wrong. That being said,

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you're looking at the money line, right, I felt I

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got buried anyone.

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Speaker 4: You know that the money's completely gone.

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Speaker 2: The other way you look right now with the books

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if you're looking at plus one ninety plus one ninety five,

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So it's not like the information was devastating if you

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bet it. But there are better numbers out there for

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these bets than the sportsbooks themselves, and that's an issue

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sportsbooks you're gonna have to deal with. And they're not

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two distant future because if the financial exchanges start, you know,

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sucking out all the profit, uh, sucking out all the

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all the volume. That's certainly going to be an issue

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for books that that cater to volume, most notably those

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books like DraftKings and Fandel Back.

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Speaker 3: East, Teddy.

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Speaker 1: You and I can do an entire show on the

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financial market things, the poly Marcus and the Calshies of

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the world. But we're going to digress because it is

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Super Bowl week. But I got lots to say there,

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and I think that's why we're starting to see places

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maybe like the Westgate Superbook, the.

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Speaker 3: Legal books doing reduced uice right now.

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Speaker 1: They're minus want to wait on Friday, They're going to

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minus one oh five for the game. I mean we're

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talking five cents on every dollar they're willing to give

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up to say, Hey, come on over here and bet

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this game with us. So I think that is something

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we're going to start to see maybe from some other books,

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maybe not the big ones like the DraftKings and Fanduels

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of the World, but definitely I could see Circa probably

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jumping on board with that as well.

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Speaker 2: And as betters, that's music to our ears. You know,

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when when books are y are fighting for our money

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and offering things like reduced juice to get our money.

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That's a good thing, you know, as a better you know,

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we want the industry to be healthy. You know, doesn't

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help us if books are going out of business and

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things are going south. But as long as the industry

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is basically healthy and books are offering some books, the

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books that are trying to gain market share are offering

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reduced juice and the like. That's exactly what we covet.

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That's why we moved to Las Vegas in the first place.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, being able to shop around, especially at reduced juice prices,

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will make or break your season. All right, Teddy, we're

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gonna talk about some Super Bowl history. You did a video,

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actually did a ton of videos if you guys haven't

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seen on the Wayger Talk Instagram channel right here on

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the YouTube channel on the YouTube shorts, Teddy put out

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a ton of awesome content, So make sure you guys

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go check that out. But one of the things that

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you did touch on with super Bowl history. And I

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feel like every single year at least.

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Speaker 3: Since I've been covering the Super Bowl, which I think

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my first year was really like full on, like twenty thirteen.

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So it's been thirteen years now. Every single book maker wants.

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Speaker 1: A boring super Bowl, right since they started putting out

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that giant prop packet around town, since everybody's gonna walk

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in the door and want about the over. It historically

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is rooted in please be boring so that we can

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make money.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the best super Bowl for books in

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the last ten years with that thirteen to three Patriots

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ran sleeper because that was boring, that boring game I've

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ever watched, dude. And the advantage for the bookmakers in

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a game like that is, you know, all the props

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stay under under under under on it. And again when

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you talk about what where the volume is for Super

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Bowl Sunday, yeah, their side, Yeah, there's total, but the props,

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depending on the book, they're going to range from fifty

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percent to seventy five eighty percent of their come total action.

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And when they get to you know, something like a

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Super Bowl, it's through thirteen to three and they get

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the scoop. You know, all the under you know, all

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the anyone that bet anything over in that game lost.

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Speaker 4: It's it's meaningful.

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Speaker 2: That was the Super Bowl sun I remember talking to

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the bookmakers that night of the morning after nothing but

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big smiles on their faces all around town.

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Speaker 3: Well I think they had big smiles last year.

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Speaker 1: Until the fourth quarter, right the Eagles are blown out

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Kansas City. There was nothing really crazy going on. Yeah,

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the game went over the total, but as far as

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the prop perspective from the Kansas City side of things,

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and then all hell broke loose in that fourth quarter with.

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00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,240
Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett getting in the game.

241
00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:39,279
Speaker 1: Then you have more than two and up guys throwing

242
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,519
passes like then things start to get a little hairy.

243
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Speaker 3: For the book makers.

244
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,519
Speaker 1: Talk to me about some recent Super Bowl history, why

245
00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:50,159
we need to look at it before betting this year's

246
00:10:50,159 --> 00:10:50,639
Super Bowl.

247
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,399
Speaker 2: So we have the basics, and the basics have been

248
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,159
very strong to the underdog for the last twenty five years.

249
00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:01,399
Last twenty five super Bowls eighteen underdogs, six favorites, one

250
00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:10,799
pick them. Last eighteen years fourteen hundred dogs, four favorites,

251
00:11:11,519 --> 00:11:15,720
or last nineteen years fourteen hundred dogs, four favorites, one

252
00:11:15,759 --> 00:11:21,840
pick them. So laying points in general has been problematic

253
00:11:23,399 --> 00:11:27,519
when we start to look at the history, and again,

254
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,039
I'm just looking at this centery. I don't care what

255
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,559
happened in the nineteen you know, the twentieth century. It's

256
00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,559
all twenty first century stuff. But we start to look

257
00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,000
at the bigger favorites, the favorites of more than a

258
00:11:38,039 --> 00:11:40,960
field goal, and boy, it stands out pretty good. Let's

259
00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:42,600
just run through them, all right. I got the list

260
00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,240
right here. Rams minus four and a half was the Bengals.

261
00:11:46,279 --> 00:11:49,279
The Rams won that by only three. Joe Burrow got

262
00:11:49,279 --> 00:11:53,039
the money. Patriots minus four versus Eagles. Patriots lost straight up.

263
00:11:53,639 --> 00:11:56,320
Panthers minus four and a half for the Broncos. Panthers

264
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,720
lost straight up. Forty nine Ers minus four and a

265
00:11:58,759 --> 00:12:02,799
half for Surravens. Forty nine Ers lost straight up. Colts

266
00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,639
minus five versus Saints. Colts lost straight up. So that's

267
00:12:06,639 --> 00:12:09,600
the last five times we've seen anyone favored by more

268
00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,639
than a field goal and a Super Bowl. Four of

269
00:12:11,639 --> 00:12:15,679
those favorites have lost straight up. The fifth one won

270
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,960
by a field goal Pats. Then we had a couple

271
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,279
of We have a Steelers minus seven versus the Colts.

272
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,720
Steelers win that by only four. Pats minus twelve versus

273
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,720
the Giants. Oh, Pats lost that game outright. Then we

274
00:12:31,759 --> 00:12:33,840
had two that actually won and covered the Colts versus

275
00:12:33,879 --> 00:12:38,919
the Bears. That was Peyton Manning versus Rex Grossman. All right,

276
00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:41,039
if you think this Super Bowl is Peyton Manning versus

277
00:12:41,039 --> 00:12:43,120
Rex Grossman, lay the points, knock yourself out.

278
00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:46,799
Speaker 4: I don't think it's that. And even that was a sweat.

279
00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,000
Speaker 2: Colts covered there, and the Steelers minus four, and after

280
00:12:50,039 --> 00:12:53,039
the Seahawks they won and covered as well. And people

281
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,200
still bitch about that Super Bowl is the single worst

282
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,720
officiated super Bowl they've ever seen. And now Seattle got

283
00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,200
screwed on every call on. Pittsburgh got the money. But

284
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,960
that's the two favorites. You got Colts and Steelers, and

285
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,759
then you had the Pats minus seven versus Eagles.

286
00:13:05,799 --> 00:13:06,519
Speaker 4: They won by only three.

287
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,799
Speaker 2: The Pats minus seven versus the Panthers they won by only three,

288
00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,279
The Raiders minus four versus the Bucks they got blown

289
00:13:11,279 --> 00:13:13,440
out in that game, and the Rams minus fourteen versus

290
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,519
the Patriots they lost straight up as well. So yeah,

291
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:22,399
that's two favorites winning and covering. These minus three and

292
00:13:22,399 --> 00:13:26,519
a half were higher, two favorites winning, covering eleven favorites,

293
00:13:27,039 --> 00:13:30,120
failing to cover six of those eleven favorites.

294
00:13:30,159 --> 00:13:33,919
Speaker 4: I believe won two, three, four, five sixty seven of.

295
00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:38,240
Speaker 2: Those favorites losing out right, it has not been a

296
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,519
good track record for the last twenty five years, laying

297
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:43,720
more than a field goal in the Super Bowl, And

298
00:13:43,759 --> 00:13:51,399
in my opinion, Kelly, that trumps every other consideration. I

299
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,200
could think I made a boy, I made a good

300
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,240
case for the forty nine ers against the Ravens. They

301
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,320
were so much better than Baltimore that year. Didn't matter

302
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,759
once you had the two of prep and the hype

303
00:14:01,759 --> 00:14:04,480
and the brother versus brother and whatever it was. And

304
00:14:04,759 --> 00:14:07,679
you know, obviously the game came down to Colin Kaepernick

305
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:09,600
missing four attempts from the two yardlands.

306
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,480
Speaker 4: Some pretty weird play calling in that span.

307
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,679
Speaker 2: That being said, there was no difference on the field,

308
00:14:15,759 --> 00:14:19,200
Seattle about Baltimore's every bit as good as San Francisco.

309
00:14:19,399 --> 00:14:22,279
I remember making a case and another favorite, you know,

310
00:14:22,279 --> 00:14:24,159
whether it's a panther. I mean, you can go on

311
00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:27,399
and on down the line. Every time you've tried to

312
00:14:27,399 --> 00:14:29,320
make a case for these favorites, going, Yeah, the regular

313
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:30,960
season they were better. The playoffs they were better, the

314
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,879
situations better, the matchups are better. It just hasn't panned

315
00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:38,279
out that way. So for me, in terms of thinking

316
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:40,399
about this game, yeah, I understand the wise guy support

317
00:14:40,399 --> 00:14:45,559
for Seattle, but the track record of this particular game

318
00:14:45,679 --> 00:14:50,279
on Super Bowl Sunday, that's meaningful as well, very meaningful

319
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:52,600
for this better all right.

320
00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:55,200
Speaker 1: Our good friend Ralph does a Super Bowl Guy that

321
00:14:55,240 --> 00:15:00,200
he puts up for free on wager talk dot com. Teddy,

322
00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:03,240
have you read through the whole guide? It's it's very extensive.

323
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,600
Speaker 3: I'm hand up. I afforded to Ariel and I said,

324
00:15:06,639 --> 00:15:09,279
send me the cliff notes, tell me, tell me, prov

325
00:15:09,399 --> 00:15:12,720
queen what we're betting in this game. I know, I'm

326
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,039
this kind of guy to the point where the prop.

327
00:15:14,919 --> 00:15:18,960
Speaker 1: Market is dominated by people that know so much more

328
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,519
than me. So I'd rather take their information than try

329
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,440
to decipher things myself. I know that sounds a little lazy,

330
00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,480
but I'm outsourcing my Super Bowl props.

331
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,279
Speaker 2: So, I mean, I am not a guy who bests

332
00:15:31,279 --> 00:15:33,320
props every week, every month, you know, all year long.

333
00:15:33,639 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 4: But every year I bet Super Bowl props.

334
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,080
Speaker 2: Why Because I got a bunch of friends in town

335
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:39,879
that know what the hell they're doing, and I listen

336
00:15:39,919 --> 00:15:42,720
to what they're talking about. Okay, absolutely, and that's why

337
00:15:42,759 --> 00:15:46,679
I'm at the West Gate for the opener. When you know,

338
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,480
we talk about things you want to do, what you know,

339
00:15:48,519 --> 00:15:50,360
and obviously we're talking about come out to Vegas for

340
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,120
March Madness, come out to Vegas for Super Bowl that

341
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,440
prop night at the Westgate, and again they do it

342
00:15:55,480 --> 00:16:00,879
every year. You've never seen more guys dressed worse with

343
00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,879
more money, you know what I'm talking about. Everybody's wearing

344
00:16:04,879 --> 00:16:09,440
a sweat suit of fifty times, you know, with fifty

345
00:16:09,519 --> 00:16:11,960
nimes and rubber bands. There are more and obviously not

346
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:13,720
people have accounts now, it's not it's not quite as

347
00:16:13,759 --> 00:16:15,159
much cash as there used to be, but there's still

348
00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,039
plenty of cash. There's all kinds of cash at the

349
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,879
west Gate. And nobody, you know, there's nobody dressing in

350
00:16:20,879 --> 00:16:22,840
the suit. Nobody even has the jacket like this. I mean,

351
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:23,519
it's all you.

352
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 3: I guarantee you and Crack were the two best dressed

353
00:16:26,279 --> 00:16:27,039
guys there that night.

354
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 2: I probably, But it's a wise guy party, and you know,

355
00:16:31,279 --> 00:16:33,240
there's not a lot of wise guy parties, you know,

356
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,440
so just to be there, be a fly on the wall,

357
00:16:36,559 --> 00:16:38,000
talk to the guys, you know, meet a couple of

358
00:16:38,039 --> 00:16:40,440
new guys. To me, it's very you know, I love

359
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,360
going down there. I try to make it as I've

360
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:43,679
been a handful of years I've missed, but I've been

361
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,399
down there almost every year, uh since I've been in Vegas,

362
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,639
and obviously this is my twenty eight Super Bowl in

363
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:50,639
Las Vegas. So it's something that I like to do

364
00:16:50,879 --> 00:16:54,200
and I find it really I find it helpful, I

365
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,799
find it informative, and I find it entertaining. And you

366
00:16:57,879 --> 00:16:59,720
put all those together, man, that's that's a good reason

367
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,600
to go there. So I understand it's it's usually ten

368
00:17:02,639 --> 00:17:04,079
days out for the Shuper Bowl, so you're not going

369
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:05,839
to come out to you know, for the for prop

370
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:07,680
party and stick around for the game at the hotel.

371
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,799
But and it's not March madness, but.

372
00:17:10,839 --> 00:17:11,519
Speaker 4: It is kind of cool.

373
00:17:11,519 --> 00:17:13,039
Speaker 2: If you got a chance, you should go one time.

374
00:17:13,519 --> 00:17:15,519
Speaker 4: I highly recommend that you've been there.

375
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,240
Speaker 1: No, it's it's great And the reality is is you

376
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:20,680
get to kind of see what the openers are too.

377
00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,119
Remember that packet gets printed one time. They're not updating it.

378
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,400
So once if it says it's eighty four and a

379
00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:27,759
half receiving yards for.

380
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:30,920
Speaker 3: Wide receiver acts, guess what.

381
00:17:31,319 --> 00:17:34,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's staying that way, even though somebody just keeps

382
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,839
hammering the over and it's moving up in half point increments.

383
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,359
So remember the latest ones are going to be updated

384
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:45,359
on the app or in person on the giant board. Teddy,

385
00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:49,079
you got that packet almost a week ago. Now, how

386
00:17:49,079 --> 00:17:50,640
many bets did you make that opening night?

387
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,799
Speaker 2: So opening I didn't make any bets. That's not my

388
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,440
m you know, that's not how I do it. And

389
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,240
I want to see where the money's going. I want

390
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:58,920
to track my own stuff. I want to pay attention.

391
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,200
Of course, you know, I took ship ton of notes.

392
00:18:01,599 --> 00:18:04,480
Uh you know uht.

393
00:18:05,079 --> 00:18:07,880
Speaker 3: Just like I do everything that I do, I something

394
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:08,759
of interested me.

395
00:18:08,839 --> 00:18:12,359
Speaker 2: I write it down, sure, and because because also, I

396
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,319
mean so some of the guys that I'm hanging with

397
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,119
down there, you know, you know the frank Bs the world,

398
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:17,599
you know, some of the best betters in the world.

399
00:18:19,279 --> 00:18:21,319
But you know me, I can't take anyone, you know,

400
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,400
I whatever someone E gives me, I can I can't.

401
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,000
I'm not blindly betting what other people tell me. You know,

402
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:28,759
That's not how I got this job, and that's not

403
00:18:28,759 --> 00:18:30,400
how I'm going to keep this job. You know, I

404
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:34,400
got to do my own work. So when I get Infoma,

405
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,039
I go home and I do my work with it.

406
00:18:36,279 --> 00:18:40,200
And then what we have is the Teddy Covers legendary

407
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,000
proper port I call that dirty does in this year.

408
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,799
Uh it's posted right now. I put it up yesterday,

409
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,119
uh at on my homepage, w dot Buzz, backslash TC.

410
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,200
So we got the side up. You guys are probably

411
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,000
pretty kind. I'm not gonna tell you what my side

412
00:18:54,039 --> 00:18:56,359
bet is, but I think you know the side.

413
00:18:56,839 --> 00:19:01,440
Speaker 3: Uh you did that the side of course I talked.

414
00:19:01,799 --> 00:19:04,039
Speaker 2: I opened the show talking about recent Super Bowl history

415
00:19:04,039 --> 00:19:06,000
and talked about how I thought that probably trumped any

416
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,960
matchup advantages. So I'm not gonna tell you guys who

417
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,599
I bet, but if you're paying.

418
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 3: Attention, you guys can read between the lines from Teddy exactly.

419
00:19:16,279 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 2: So anyhow, that's up on my page right now or

420
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,240
wagetalk dot com. And the twelve props and the key

421
00:19:22,279 --> 00:19:26,599
with the props, I'm gonna get graded on twelve of them.

422
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,200
But with many of the write ups I wrote, you

423
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:30,759
can get at this prop this way, you can get

424
00:19:30,759 --> 00:19:32,559
at this prop that way. If you can't find this one,

425
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,640
look for this number. So it gives you some flexibility

426
00:19:37,799 --> 00:19:40,200
to look around. And because some of these probably are

427
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,200
paying and they asked to find you know, and it's

428
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:46,759
a mix between player props and what i'll call general props.

429
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,559
Speaker 4: You know, the first score of the game will be,

430
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:50,759
first play of the game will be.

431
00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:55,079
Speaker 2: That type of stuff. And so it's about the split

432
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,599
between the two. But twelve props in total. But honestly,

433
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:58,960
if you look at that report, you can probably get

434
00:19:58,960 --> 00:19:59,640
twenty bets out of it.

435
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,799
Speaker 1: Pretty they're not going to be getting the coin toss

436
00:20:01,799 --> 00:20:02,400
from you, Teddy.

437
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,839
Speaker 2: I did not give a recommendation on the coin toss.

438
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,240
If you like to bet the coin toss, I do

439
00:20:07,319 --> 00:20:08,640
have advice, and a serious advice.

440
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 4: If you want to bet the coin.

441
00:20:09,559 --> 00:20:12,640
Speaker 2: Toss, Yes, for the love of God, bet it reduced

442
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,480
juice Somewhere, our.

443
00:20:14,519 --> 00:20:17,759
Speaker 1: Friends, there will be somebody at your super Bowl party

444
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:19,720
if you want heads, that wants tails.

445
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,519
Speaker 3: Now. The only thing is they may not take a

446
00:20:21,599 --> 00:20:23,680
nickel from you. You may only get five bucks from

447
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:24,400
one of your buddies.

448
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 1: But I always say that there is always somebody that's like, no,

449
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,200
I want I always want heads because it's just a

450
00:20:29,279 --> 00:20:32,200
stupid bet right out of the gate. That is technically

451
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,200
a fifty to fifty proposition, but it no longer becomes

452
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,160
a fifty to fifty proposition. If you're laying minus one

453
00:20:38,319 --> 00:20:41,039
ten with your local or somebody.

454
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 2: Minus one fifteen both ways awful, it's off. I'm like,

455
00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:48,799
that's a little rough. You can lay one on one

456
00:20:48,799 --> 00:20:50,480
at the West Gate, isn't it? One on one each day?

457
00:20:50,799 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 3: One at the West Gate?

458
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 1: And I'm sure plenty of other books probably have Mary

459
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,799
reduced juice as well, if you're looking to get down

460
00:20:55,839 --> 00:20:57,160
some crazy exorbitant amount.

461
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: But I always say, if you if you feel the

462
00:20:59,319 --> 00:21:02,559
need to have action on the coin toss, make sure

463
00:21:02,559 --> 00:21:03,599
you bet it reduced juice.

464
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 4: And if you got an edge lesson I mean no,

465
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:06,559
I'm real, Yeah, I.

466
00:21:06,559 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 3: Would love to know if anybody has a coin toss edge.

467
00:21:09,599 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 1: Actually, you know what, I wish I would have started

468
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,400
doing Deddie just writing it down because I think I

469
00:21:13,519 --> 00:21:15,359
lost heads like six years in a row.

470
00:21:15,559 --> 00:21:16,799
Speaker 3: Like I'm not even they're.

471
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 2: Due kill, they're due. It's gotta be your head. Yeah again.

472
00:21:21,599 --> 00:21:24,440
So that's one of the things I guess that I don't.

473
00:21:24,559 --> 00:21:26,680
I'm an action every day, you know, I bet just

474
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,440
about it. I can't say I bet three hundred sixty

475
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,400
five days a year, but I bet three hundred and

476
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,880
fifty days a year. Let's say, you know, I don't

477
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,920
need action on the coin toss. It's okay, you know

478
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,039
I don't need action out you know, there's will be

479
00:21:37,079 --> 00:21:39,359
an all kinds of action on Super Bowl Sunday. I

480
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,920
don't need that extra foom fun, the on the on

481
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,480
the especially, I don't want to watch the game before kickoff.

482
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,559
I don't want to sit there for twenty how many

483
00:21:49,559 --> 00:21:51,799
hours of commercial between the coin top and the game

484
00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:53,640
actually starting. You know, it feels like that they you know,

485
00:21:54,079 --> 00:21:54,880
it's like an hour.

486
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 1: It's like an hour of just talking heads and coin

487
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,920
tosses and of course nationally them and all that fun stuff.

488
00:22:01,759 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 3: If you if you do the going tous call the hotline.

489
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,559
Speaker 2: There's truth to that, you know, and we don't talk

490
00:22:07,599 --> 00:22:09,599
about it. And I want to talk about it right

491
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,440
now because it's important, all right, if you're having a problem,

492
00:22:14,079 --> 00:22:16,920
and Super Bowl brings out problems for for problem gamblers,

493
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,119
all right, if you're having a problem controlling yourself, if

494
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,480
you're having a problem saying I gotta givement this coin

495
00:22:22,519 --> 00:22:23,440
to us, you have having a problem.

496
00:22:23,279 --> 00:22:25,799
Speaker 4: Betten more than you should. This is a big week

497
00:22:25,839 --> 00:22:26,319
for gamblers.

498
00:22:26,319 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 2: Anonymous this is a big week for helplines, and it's okay.

499
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,000
We're all human, all right, It's okay to get help

500
00:22:33,039 --> 00:22:35,839
if you can't control yourself gambling, you're not the You're

501
00:22:35,839 --> 00:22:38,079
not You're not doing yourself for anyone, you know.

502
00:22:38,519 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 4: An he favors by going on, give me a little

503
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:41,720
more action.

504
00:22:41,759 --> 00:22:46,039
Speaker 2: I'll let me bury myself one more time. To be

505
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:51,960
a successful, happy, healthy, functioning gambler, you gotta be able

506
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:56,720
to hit the brakes and stuff like coin toss is

507
00:22:56,799 --> 00:22:59,519
kind of a leading indicator for that. If you're struggling

508
00:22:59,519 --> 00:23:01,480
to get the break. This is a tough week for

509
00:23:01,519 --> 00:23:05,000
people with gambling addiction. Get some help. It's okay. No

510
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:08,359
one's mad at you. Get some help if you don't,

511
00:23:08,559 --> 00:23:11,200
and you can handle yourself, continue watching the show.

512
00:23:11,519 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Teddy, I actually it's crazy. Ten years ago, this

513
00:23:14,279 --> 00:23:18,000
exact game you and I were filming. I cannot remember

514
00:23:18,039 --> 00:23:20,000
which documentary it was, not Action because it was way

515
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,000
before action, a couple of years before. And I was

516
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,799
standing in line at the Westgate super Book and I

517
00:23:23,839 --> 00:23:26,200
had like three or four dimes on me, right, and

518
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:27,839
the guy was like, how much are you going to

519
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,240
bet on Seattle?

520
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:29,559
Speaker 2: Right?

521
00:23:29,599 --> 00:23:31,039
Speaker 3: I think Seattle was catching what.

522
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,279
Speaker 2: One and a half with a pick.

523
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: I felt like off market, though whatever the reality was,

524
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,160
I ended up betting basically all the money that was

525
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,880
in my fanny pack because the cameras were rolling and

526
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,880
I really like Seattle, but there was an extra like

527
00:23:47,759 --> 00:23:51,640
pressure and the way that game ended obviously could have

528
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,680
went either way. But the reality was I beat myself

529
00:23:54,759 --> 00:23:56,519
up about that for a long time, and I think

530
00:23:56,599 --> 00:24:01,160
sometimes gamblers do need that to happen. And to this day,

531
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,640
I will not bet more than a certain amount on

532
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,119
a game one, two or three units the end because

533
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:12,000
I've seen people bury themselves unnecessarily. I didn't love Seattle

534
00:24:12,039 --> 00:24:12,559
in that game.

535
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 3: There was no reason for me to have three.

536
00:24:15,279 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: Full units when I had full intention of betting one

537
00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:19,519
unit on the game to have some action.

538
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 3: And I really learned a hard lesson there.

539
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,319
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to kind of piggyback that with

540
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,640
this is not coming from a place of like we're

541
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:28,400
looking down on it.

542
00:24:28,519 --> 00:24:30,319
Speaker 3: This is coming from a place we've all been there.

543
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,759
Speaker 2: So this is my twentieth Super Bowl in Vegas, and

544
00:24:34,079 --> 00:24:36,119
when I talked about it, I'm like, I've learned this

545
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:36,960
lesson the hard way.

546
00:24:37,039 --> 00:24:39,039
Speaker 4: I learned that lesson the hard way. I learned the

547
00:24:39,079 --> 00:24:39,920
other lesson the hard way.

548
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 2: Let me share so in my experience with you, so

549
00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:43,160
you don't have to learn these lessons the hard way.

550
00:24:43,839 --> 00:24:45,559
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter. People want to learn the hard way.

551
00:24:45,799 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 3: You have to go with your.

552
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 1: Kid, or with my niece or whoever I tell a

553
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,759
story to. People have to learn it the hard way.

554
00:24:51,839 --> 00:24:54,400
We just hope that you, guys do seek help if

555
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,680
you do need it, especially when it comes to exorbitant

556
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,160
amounts of money that you should not be betting, regardless

557
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,319
of loss on a game.

558
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,279
Speaker 2: Super Bowl is great for action I put I put

559
00:25:06,279 --> 00:25:07,920
out these props, all right. I put out you know,

560
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,119
a dozen I called the Dirty dozen, and they're all

561
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,599
a quarter of a unit, all right. A little bit

562
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,519
of action action here, action there, action everywhere. It is

563
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,039
a sport. It's the Christmas for sports betters. It's our holiday,

564
00:25:19,279 --> 00:25:23,680
all right. We should enjoy it. But for the love

565
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,839
of God, don't be betting money you can't afford to lose,

566
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,440
and don't keep your unit size as small. If you

567
00:25:28,519 --> 00:25:30,160
keep your unit size as small, you're fine with any

568
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,240
of this stuff, you really are. But like Kelly said,

569
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,880
and I remember that it's weird. I don't remember who

570
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,519
we were on air with that day either, but I

571
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,119
were there. I was there, you were.

572
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:43,599
Speaker 3: There, I was there. We're all at the West Gates

573
00:25:43,599 --> 00:25:44,000
Super Bowl.

574
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 2: Ye.

575
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: I think that was just action because I think that

576
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,400
was one of the first times I had met you,

577
00:25:50,519 --> 00:25:52,519
because I hadn't started working for wager Talk yet.

578
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:53,519
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I remember.

579
00:25:53,559 --> 00:25:54,079
Speaker 4: I remember.

580
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 2: I remember with Malynsky meeting you and and we had

581
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,880
you do that. What we were trying to pitching Fox

582
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,640
to try to do a sport Yeah, you talked today

583
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,200
on Fox in twenty and fourteen or something.

584
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 4: It was oh my gosh.

585
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I had you doubt it to do it

586
00:26:12,039 --> 00:26:13,519
for the for the pilot that we shot.

587
00:26:13,799 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 3: That's right.

588
00:26:14,559 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 2: But the fact that we were already connected then, that

589
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,680
was I think it was twenty fourteen.

590
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 4: I rey knew you then, so I've known you for

591
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:21,039
longer than I think.

592
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 3: I think, so, I think you're right. Wow.

593
00:26:23,559 --> 00:26:26,279
Speaker 1: Anyway, last from the past. Thanks for making me feel old, Teddy.

594
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,039
Get back into a little bit more of some of

595
00:26:29,079 --> 00:26:31,000
the prop stuff that you're going to have, what people

596
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:36,759
can expect from you, and ultimately where they should be

597
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,519
looking for value on this giant prop sheet. I mean,

598
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,799
we're you guys all did different videos. Marco said, hey,

599
00:26:42,799 --> 00:26:46,039
avoid these bets. You said, avoid soccer bets. Things like that,

600
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,880
like when diving into this extensive prop sheet, where should

601
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:52,759
people be looking and where should they be avoiding?

602
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,279
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean so, and you talked about the

603
00:26:56,559 --> 00:27:01,119
videos that we just shot for Instagram and really excited

604
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,920
about what these you know, what these guys were doing.

605
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:06,680
But of course when you when you're doing those type

606
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,160
of videos, you got to hype a little bit more.

607
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,720
So I came with a bunch of energy in a

608
00:27:11,799 --> 00:27:13,200
bunch of yeah, this is what we got.

609
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 4: And then that.

610
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: Apparently carries well for these videos because they've gotten a

611
00:27:17,759 --> 00:27:22,519
ton of views already. But certainly I talked about three

612
00:27:22,559 --> 00:27:25,960
sucker bets that get made every year in the Super Bowl,

613
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,359
and I want to talk about that here. You know,

614
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:32,920
the yes, overtime is not priced appropriately, all right, And

615
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,759
I know people are always looking to bet a little.

616
00:27:35,039 --> 00:27:37,880
In general, the recreational betters want to bet a little

617
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,640
to win a lot. In general, the wise guys are

618
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,599
very comfortable betting a lot to win a little. So

619
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,920
the big plus prices out there, though, will there be

620
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,519
an octopus. You know, will both teams get a safety.

621
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:56,160
You know, their sucker bets their bets with you know,

622
00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:01,000
they're offering these big payouts that are unlikely to cash overtime,

623
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:07,759
two point conversion safety or the three that I mentioned.

624
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,799
But certainly series history tells us a lot. A recent

625
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,119
history tell us a lot about what we can expect

626
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,880
first play of the game. It's seen a run four

627
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:18,839
straight years, six of the last seven. We have two

628
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,440
quarterbacks we've never played in Super Bowl before. I'm expecting

629
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,599
a run first play of the game. Here, that's one

630
00:28:24,079 --> 00:28:27,240
team that scores first wins. This one actually is not

631
00:28:27,599 --> 00:28:30,480
nearly you know, you assume that's a yes. That's not

632
00:28:30,519 --> 00:28:33,599
a yes. That's five and five last ten years, team

633
00:28:33,599 --> 00:28:35,359
to score first wins. You get a plus price on

634
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,160
the no. You know that being said team to score

635
00:28:38,279 --> 00:28:41,000
last wins. Last year, that streak finally ended with the

636
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,400
team to score last wins because Case got the money.

637
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:45,440
But prior to that, I think it had been a

638
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,839
dozen straight years where the team to score last had

639
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,880
one score first six minutes of the game. And you

640
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,640
can find all kinds of odds on this. You can

641
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:57,079
find Seattle to punt before they score. You can find

642
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,119
New England punt before they score. You can find no

643
00:28:59,279 --> 00:29:01,519
score first three and a half, four and a half,

644
00:29:01,519 --> 00:29:03,000
five and a half, six and a half, seven and

645
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,720
a half, eight and a half minutes of the first quarter,

646
00:29:05,079 --> 00:29:08,759
and they all have different prices attached to them. That's

647
00:29:08,759 --> 00:29:10,480
the type of bet I wouldn't argue with the ladder.

648
00:29:11,279 --> 00:29:14,799
So first score last year came with six eighteen left

649
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,759
in the first quarter, first score of the year before

650
00:29:17,279 --> 00:29:19,799
no scoring in the first quarter at all. You had

651
00:29:19,799 --> 00:29:22,799
a quick score and that thirty eight to thirty five

652
00:29:23,079 --> 00:29:25,559
Chiefs Eagles Super Bowl. Both team score touchdowns in the

653
00:29:25,599 --> 00:29:27,799
first drive. That's been the exception rather than the rule

654
00:29:28,119 --> 00:29:32,079
before that. No no, no, no, no, no, and no

655
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,000
the previous six years. So that's seven of the last eight, sorry,

656
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,359
eight of the last nine no score first six minutes

657
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:40,279
of the game.

658
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,519
Speaker 4: We've seen relatively low scoring starts.

659
00:29:44,839 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: The three unanswered scoreres prop that's one that I always

660
00:29:47,759 --> 00:29:50,240
like to talk about, calicuse. That's one when I first

661
00:29:50,279 --> 00:29:52,559
moved to Vegas. That was like the wise guy prop ooh,

662
00:29:52,599 --> 00:29:55,720
three unanswered scores, lay minus won sixty, lay minus won eighty,

663
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:57,039
and he used to lay it every year. Then all

664
00:29:57,039 --> 00:29:58,799
of a sudden, I started losing with it, and I

665
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,240
kept losing with it. And that's another one that's ten

666
00:30:01,279 --> 00:30:03,000
into five and five over the last ten meetings. And

667
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,720
when you lay in minus one sixty on a prop

668
00:30:04,759 --> 00:30:08,559
that's fifty to fifty, that's problematic. I no longer bet

669
00:30:08,839 --> 00:30:11,920
the wise guy prop of yes, the one team will

670
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,200
have three unanswered scores. And especially if I like the

671
00:30:15,279 --> 00:30:19,440
underdog in a game like this, that's another reason not

672
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,440
to make that bet, because you think the dog.

673
00:30:22,359 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 4: Is going to hang.

674
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,079
Speaker 2: Defensive or special teams touchdowns now this, you know, we

675
00:30:27,119 --> 00:30:28,799
talk about defense special team That used to be a

676
00:30:28,799 --> 00:30:31,240
sucker bet. And in the modern era, you know, I've

677
00:30:31,279 --> 00:30:33,799
seen six what is six and six the last dozen

678
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,200
Super Bowls. The modern era, we have seen plenty of

679
00:30:37,279 --> 00:30:41,680
defensive and special teams touchdowns. We go back to you know,

680
00:30:42,079 --> 00:30:46,640
Bear's Bears cults with a special team's TV in that

681
00:30:46,759 --> 00:30:53,599
ball game. So it's certainly not an automatic no. And

682
00:30:53,839 --> 00:30:56,400
again you get a plus price on the yes. Most

683
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,599
of the sharp guys I know consider there's a sucker

684
00:30:58,640 --> 00:30:59,920
bet to bet the yes on.

685
00:31:00,039 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 4: Defense, specially in touchdown because odds aren't right.

686
00:31:02,599 --> 00:31:05,839
Speaker 2: Maybe, but it's been cashing just like a two point

687
00:31:05,839 --> 00:31:08,240
conversion attempt to You know, the attempt is not what

688
00:31:08,279 --> 00:31:10,160
I want. If I've bet no point two point conversion,

689
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,359
I want no point two point conversion made, because that's

690
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:18,440
one obviously that we've seen attempts on a consistent base.

691
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,839
What have we've seen at the two point attempts three

692
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,319
the last four years, six to the last ten. But

693
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,000
when you look at the maid, it's only cashed twice

694
00:31:27,079 --> 00:31:30,119
in the last eight years. So the maid much lower

695
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,920
than the attempted. You know, the plus price is on

696
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:34,960
missed extra point. No, I don't want the plus price

697
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,000
on overtime, No, I don't want it. We again, we

698
00:31:37,039 --> 00:31:40,200
have seen two Super Bowls in the sixty go to overtime,

699
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,720
but not a whole lot of quarter. Will a quarter

700
00:31:43,759 --> 00:31:46,559
be scoreless? That's always an interesting one. And you get

701
00:31:46,599 --> 00:31:50,119
a plus price on the Yes, a big plus price.

702
00:31:50,519 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 4: And what do we have.

703
00:31:52,039 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: Shoot, we've seen four times in the last eight Super

704
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,839
Bowls at least one quarter goes Scorrell. It's seen under

705
00:31:57,839 --> 00:32:02,799
money coming in this one. So that's one worthy of note.

706
00:32:03,279 --> 00:32:04,880
Should I keep going? Cal I can go on.

707
00:32:04,839 --> 00:32:08,319
Speaker 1: And on here, we got nothing but time Teddy, we

708
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,279
have twenty seven minutes until Wager talked today. We got

709
00:32:11,279 --> 00:32:13,480
some questions in the chat I would love to get

710
00:32:13,519 --> 00:32:15,680
to as well. So if you've got stuff that you

711
00:32:15,839 --> 00:32:18,759
have to share, I'm just over here taking notes because

712
00:32:18,759 --> 00:32:21,319
Guss Who's gonna be on radio road tomorrow, so I

713
00:32:21,359 --> 00:32:23,279
need to make sure that I'm prepared for a lot

714
00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:25,559
of the stuff that is in the prop guide.

715
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,839
Speaker 3: But again, I'm getting the cliff notes here from Teddy.

716
00:32:28,519 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 4: Sure, sure you have to.

717
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,119
Speaker 2: So the game decided by exactly three points. Three of

718
00:32:32,119 --> 00:32:36,039
the last four years that's been decided by exactly three points.

719
00:32:36,319 --> 00:32:38,559
Longest touchdown three of the last four years have been

720
00:32:38,599 --> 00:32:41,720
forty five or over. That being said, the three years

721
00:32:41,759 --> 00:32:43,960
before the last four years was all run plays opposed

722
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,880
to pass plays. And that one game, the thirteen to

723
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,759
three riveting game where we're talking about the longest touchdown of.

724
00:32:49,759 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 4: The game was two yards.

725
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,039
Speaker 2: What was the eighty two yard interception return touchdown of

726
00:32:56,039 --> 00:32:58,519
the longest one of the game for oh, that was

727
00:32:58,559 --> 00:32:59,480
New England Atlanta.

728
00:33:00,079 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks for having oh yeah, speaking of having a

729
00:33:05,039 --> 00:33:08,920
dog in that one, that was uh, that's there's just

730
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,000
certain memories, like you said, like we talked about the

731
00:33:11,039 --> 00:33:14,319
Patriots ram Super Bowl being the worst in terms of

732
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:15,759
like action.

733
00:33:16,079 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: That second half.

734
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,039
Speaker 1: Had I been on the Patriots, like everybody in the

735
00:33:19,079 --> 00:33:20,799
room I was watching that game with. I had just

736
00:33:21,039 --> 00:33:23,240
left Waste Management. I was at my buddy Cole's house

737
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,759
in Scottsdale, and everybody had a Patriots ticket. Like, just

738
00:33:26,799 --> 00:33:29,240
imagine me sitting there with my Falcons ticket and going,

739
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:30,440
I'm in hell.

740
00:33:31,359 --> 00:33:31,799
Speaker 2: That was.

741
00:33:32,799 --> 00:33:36,279
Speaker 1: That was a crazy super Bowl where exactly what happened,

742
00:33:36,279 --> 00:33:38,079
I mean that had to bury the books there late.

743
00:33:39,559 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, So that was one and I remember watching it.

744
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:43,799
Speaker 2: So I was watching it with care and my wife

745
00:33:44,359 --> 00:33:45,680
were at a friend's house, and it was a lot

746
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,559
of fun. We like Todd do you know Toddy? Oh yeah, yeah, yeah,

747
00:33:48,559 --> 00:33:53,799
the bunch of guys there. And it was this one

748
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,599
was twenty eight to twelve, and the Patriots fans were

749
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,839
starting to get excited, and I'm like, we got plus

750
00:34:00,839 --> 00:34:03,440
three and a half. I'm like, Cara, I've watched enough football.

751
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,319
I'm like, this game is over. Okay, they need two

752
00:34:06,359 --> 00:34:09,320
touchdowns and two two point versions, and look we're aren't

753
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,519
in field goal range. And of course then they weren't

754
00:34:12,519 --> 00:34:14,199
in field goal range and they got two touchdowns, two

755
00:34:14,199 --> 00:34:16,440
two point versions, one theason overtime and went to march

756
00:34:16,519 --> 00:34:19,920
the game. And that's you know, that will happen once

757
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:21,000
or twice in a lifetime.

758
00:34:21,039 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 4: But that game was over.

759
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,639
Speaker 2: You know, you can play that game one hundred times

760
00:34:23,639 --> 00:34:26,639
and the Patriots will win once or twice. And they

761
00:34:26,679 --> 00:34:28,920
won that one. So it sucked. That's one that I

762
00:34:29,039 --> 00:34:31,599
and that's one. But there's not a super Bowl. I

763
00:34:31,599 --> 00:34:33,320
don't remember, not a super Bowl. I can't tell you

764
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,159
who I had, what happened in the game. They stand

765
00:34:36,199 --> 00:34:38,079
in your brain in a different way than anywhere in

766
00:34:38,079 --> 00:34:39,079
the regular season games.

767
00:34:39,119 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 1: Oh, they absolutely do. For whatever reason, they are a

768
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,360
lot more memorable. You mentioned that you were on the

769
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,320
forty nine ers. I was on the Ravens in that game.

770
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,960
We were at the Westgates Super Book. I was with

771
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,159
my buddy Jeff, and then.

772
00:34:49,119 --> 00:34:53,280
Speaker 3: All the lights go out. Yeah, we're like, what is happening?

773
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,079
Speaker 1: Like, how can you not remember that the electricity went

774
00:34:56,079 --> 00:34:57,760
out at the Super Bowl. It's like such a weird

775
00:34:58,199 --> 00:35:00,519
Every single year, there's something that's ingrained in your brain

776
00:35:00,559 --> 00:35:04,960
that makes you exactly remember that. I'll never forget the conversation.

777
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,119
I'll never forgive Kyle Shanahan for his play calling in

778
00:35:07,159 --> 00:35:11,039
the second half. See that's how you guys remember it, Teddy.

779
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:17,159
Speaker 2: They're already in field goal range. I'm literally sitting back here.

780
00:35:17,199 --> 00:35:19,360
I'm like relaxed. Already in field goal range. They need

781
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,440
two touchdowns anti two point of versions just to get

782
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:23,400
the overtime. Where are your field goal range?

783
00:35:24,039 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, let's help that.

784
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,039
Speaker 1: That the Patriots, for my sake, figure out how to

785
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:31,880
play some really good goal one defense.

786
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 3: Again, do we want to get to some of these

787
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:34,320
questions here in the chat?

788
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,079
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, Now it's a great time to do it.

789
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,239
I'm just trying to make sure I answered. We went

790
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,159
through everything. So we talked about the emergency betting alert

791
00:35:41,159 --> 00:35:42,519
and why I was wrong. We talked about the reason

792
00:35:42,559 --> 00:35:44,440
Super Bowl. We talked about the prop sheet, we talk

793
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,519
about the westgate on opening night. Absolutely, let's answer quick.

794
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:49,599
Speaker 1: All right, we'll go to Sean first. What about fourth

795
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,840
down conversions at two and a half. Here's where, Teddy,

796
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:58,840
that I don't understand calculating some of these prop juice points, right,

797
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,599
Like how you three an answered scores?

798
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 2: Is now?

799
00:36:02,119 --> 00:36:03,599
Speaker 3: I remember when I first came to Las Vegas.

800
00:36:03,599 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: I think I laid minus won forty with it when

801
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,400
someone told me to bet it way back in the day,

802
00:36:07,519 --> 00:36:09,679
like a poker player was like, Kelly, bet this and

803
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,599
it was it was that was a lot of.

804
00:36:11,639 --> 00:36:12,159
Speaker 3: Juice for me.

805
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 2: Like remember, but that was the wise guy prop that

806
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,719
was like the secret hidden prop that you're like, oh,

807
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,000
it's really cool and always cases these guys bet to

808
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:23,440
buying his price, you know, like first moved to town

809
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,159
in ninety eight, ninety nine, people like this is the

810
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,760
one that's the prop you know, yeah, I get it.

811
00:36:30,679 --> 00:36:34,599
Speaker 1: So how did we calculate what the appropriate juice on

812
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,079
these prop bets should be?

813
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 2: Right? What about?

814
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:37,639
Speaker 3: You know?

815
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 4: Sorry, So let's talk about fourth downs? Okay, all right?

816
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 2: In the NFL this season, you know what team converted

817
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,039
the first the fewest fourth downs?

818
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 3: I think it's the Patriots Seahawks. Oh it's a Seahawks.

819
00:36:52,159 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 2: Seven seven seven conversions for twelve attempts full season. So

820
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:02,880
when I'm confident, and that's a coach believing in his defense,

821
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:08,320
we can punt, we'll get the ball back. So when

822
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,000
I have one of the two teams that I don't

823
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:12,719
think is going to attempt a fourth down conversion, I

824
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,599
ain't betting over two and a half. You know it's

825
00:37:15,639 --> 00:37:18,280
not going both ways. I can only play under with

826
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,760
that prop because I don't think Seattle goes for it.

827
00:37:21,599 --> 00:37:23,159
Speaker 1: Okay, if you don't think Seattle goes for it, then

828
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,519
we need the Patriots to go for three times and

829
00:37:25,599 --> 00:37:29,239
unless they're down significantly. Part of that game script is

830
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,719
in your handicap too, in this whole thing, right, Teddy,

831
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,519
Like how you see the game playing out, then correlating

832
00:37:35,599 --> 00:37:39,480
that with your prop bets and things like fourth down conversions.

833
00:37:39,639 --> 00:37:40,719
All right, Matt, Matt's whatever.

834
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:44,039
Speaker 2: But it's important to note, all right, because you can

835
00:37:44,199 --> 00:37:48,840
really fall into disaster scenarios if every prop bet you

836
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,480
make falls into your exact game script and then the

837
00:37:51,519 --> 00:37:53,199
game doesn't come out the way you think, you're just

838
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:54,039
gonna get buried.

839
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:54,639
Speaker 3: Yeah.

840
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 2: So that's why when I'm doing my prop report, I'm

841
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,360
making sure that it's not just player props overs or

842
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:03,960
if I like the over for the game, or player

843
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:04,840
props under, if I like.

844
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:05,599
Speaker 4: The under for the game.

845
00:38:06,039 --> 00:38:10,519
Speaker 2: It's a little there's a variety in there. So even

846
00:38:10,639 --> 00:38:13,920
if a piece of your game script is wrong, you

847
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:15,400
don't lose every bet that you make.

848
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 4: You know, that's the goal.

849
00:38:18,159 --> 00:38:20,559
Speaker 1: All right, One of our wager talking insiders, Mad Max,

850
00:38:21,079 --> 00:38:24,480
is questioning Drake May's arm health.

851
00:38:24,599 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 3: Have you heard anything in regards to is he healthy?

852
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like we get to the point

853
00:38:31,599 --> 00:38:33,960
midway of the season, right, all season long we hurt,

854
00:38:34,039 --> 00:38:35,760
or all summer long, Matthew Stafford's hurt.

855
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,159
Speaker 3: We hit the midway point of the season, We're like

856
00:38:37,159 --> 00:38:38,320
Matthew Stafford's.

857
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 1: Not bad hurt.

858
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: We've been hearing Drake May's arm has been hurt all playoffs.

859
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:43,000
We've been hurt.

860
00:38:43,079 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 1: Hearing the Sam Darnold, I think it's his side or

861
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,960
as groin or some oblique oblique is hurt. Right, I

862
00:38:50,039 --> 00:38:51,960
haven't heard that all week long, but I have heard

863
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,719
an awful lot about Drake May's arm.

864
00:38:54,199 --> 00:38:56,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Drake May also had the flu, which is

865
00:38:56,599 --> 00:38:58,880
not necessarily the best scenario. Or you know, he missed

866
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,360
the day, missed a day for sickness as well, which could,

867
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:07,039
I believe, maybe help the other injury. But you know,

868
00:39:07,199 --> 00:39:09,719
when you hear rumblings and bumblings, it could mean something.

869
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 4: All right, this time of the year.

870
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 2: That being said, don't forget there is no bigger hype

871
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,039
event in American sports in the Super Bowl. You have

872
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,079
five hundred reporters from five hundred different papers that I'll

873
00:39:22,119 --> 00:39:24,639
get paid to go out there and write stories, a

874
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:28,559
lot of stories, new story every day, multiple stories every day.

875
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 4: What does that mean?

876
00:39:30,039 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: That means little things get blown up into big things

877
00:39:32,119 --> 00:39:36,039
this type of week. When it comes to Drake May's injury,

878
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,480
I'm of the impression as of now that it's not

879
00:39:39,639 --> 00:39:41,360
that big a deal. If it turns out that we

880
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:43,320
hear more about it in the next day or two,

881
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,119
you know, if Drake May's limited in practice this week,

882
00:39:46,599 --> 00:39:50,039
that's going to change things dramatically, But as of now,

883
00:39:50,119 --> 00:39:52,159
we haven't heard any indications that that's going to be

884
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,239
the case, even with the Seattle money. You know, you

885
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:56,800
talked about it. You don't think this line is getting

886
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,920
a six. If Drake May's hurt, this line could get

887
00:39:58,960 --> 00:39:59,360
to seven.

888
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 4: But I don't think Day's Mac is going to be

889
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,360
so hurt that the line will get to seven.

890
00:40:03,559 --> 00:40:06,199
Speaker 2: I would expect him to be full participant in practice

891
00:40:06,199 --> 00:40:08,199
this week, and if he's not, the marks will adjust

892
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:09,039
pretty darn quickly.

893
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 1: Yes, then we might actually see a six pop up.

894
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,880
But as far as let's talk about the weather, Teddy

895
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,000
fan tone twenty four says rain and drizzle at least

896
00:40:20,039 --> 00:40:22,760
here on Monday morning on the East coast is correct?

897
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 3: There for Santa Clara. Remember, guys, is that Levi Stadium.

898
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 1: Even though I'm going to be in San Francisco where

899
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,760
the convention center is, We're not going to be in

900
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:31,480
Santa Clara.

901
00:40:32,039 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 3: It's so strange. I don't get it. Like at least

902
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,679
with Vegas, we were at the Mandalai Baconvention Center and

903
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,440
then Allegiant Stadium was across the street.

904
00:40:38,519 --> 00:40:41,639
Speaker 4: But sure, it's pretty easy here in traffic for an hour.

905
00:40:41,559 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 1: You know, is in downtown San Francisco to go, you know,

906
00:40:45,199 --> 00:40:46,800
ninety minutes in traffic to Santa Clara.

907
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 3: That's why I'm getting the hell out of time. On Friday,

908
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:51,159
I want to watch the game with my family in fronts.

909
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 4: Well being on being on the radio row and the

910
00:40:54,639 --> 00:40:56,320
like is you know, media row is pretty cool.

911
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,639
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, And there's gonna be great restaurants in San Francisco.

912
00:40:59,679 --> 00:41:01,199
I get there with one of my best friends, so

913
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,440
it's going to be a really great week. But the

914
00:41:03,599 --> 00:41:05,920
zoo that is the super Bowl on Sunday.

915
00:41:06,039 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: I just assume I had no part of it.

916
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:09,599
Speaker 1: Crazy well and you know, someone's like, we, if the

917
00:41:09,599 --> 00:41:11,559
Broncos made it, would you have gone? And I said, yeah,

918
00:41:11,559 --> 00:41:12,719
if somebody gave me a free ticket.

919
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:17,119
Speaker 3: Fuck, I'm not paying an exorbitant amount of money to

920
00:41:17,199 --> 00:41:20,159
go watch some Broncos who have won three Super Bowls

921
00:41:20,199 --> 00:41:22,199
in my lifetime go win another Super Bowl.

922
00:41:22,599 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I had done at dinner last night with

923
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:26,880
small friends. One of them was telling me a story

924
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,920
about how he went to Super Bowl three by smailing

925
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,519
in an envelope with a six dollars chick.

926
00:41:34,519 --> 00:41:35,119
Speaker 4: Six bucks.

927
00:41:37,679 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 2: Gosh, that's just you know, he sent the envelope into

928
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,239
whatever NFL office there was, and he's like, yeah, back

929
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,000
in the in the early seventies, I went to four

930
00:41:46,079 --> 00:41:48,039
Super Bowls are an eight year span, and I got

931
00:41:48,119 --> 00:41:49,719
all the tickets ahead of time and never paid more

932
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:50,400
than twenty bucks.

933
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 3: That's just outrageous.

934
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 4: That's outrazing.

935
00:41:54,159 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 3: And we all know I'm a seat snob.

936
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,199
Speaker 1: So that five thousand dollars seat, which is probably going

937
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:03,880
to be ten thousand dollars on the aftermarket, I'm not

938
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,480
faying tangering to send the nose weights. All right, Any

939
00:42:06,519 --> 00:42:08,599
other questions you guys have for Teddy, please drop it

940
00:42:08,639 --> 00:42:12,039
in the chat Teddy anything you want.

941
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 4: To, Yeah, I want to.

942
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,159
Speaker 2: Matt Murray just put a question on the over six

943
00:42:16,159 --> 00:42:23,840
and a half kickoffs returned, So I'm anticipating a relatively

944
00:42:24,039 --> 00:42:28,960
low possession game. These are not teams that play with

945
00:42:29,119 --> 00:42:32,119
a lot of tempo. These are teams that are both

946
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:37,840
reliant on their defense. So when you're talking about kickoffs returned,

947
00:42:39,199 --> 00:42:41,119
that has a lot to do with A the total,

948
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,119
you know, that's another that's kind of a bet, and

949
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:47,519
b are the kickoffs actually gonna get returned or are

950
00:42:47,559 --> 00:42:48,239
we going to see.

951
00:42:48,159 --> 00:42:49,079
Speaker 4: Touchbacks and the like?

952
00:42:50,119 --> 00:42:52,119
Speaker 2: But more than any factor, that's do with how many

953
00:42:52,159 --> 00:42:54,000
possessions are we going to get in the game or

954
00:42:54,039 --> 00:42:56,320
any you know, how many scoring positions? And that's six

955
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,920
and a half returned. It's not a bet that I

956
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,519
made one way or the other. The slightest of leans

957
00:43:01,559 --> 00:43:04,079
to the under, but it's not a bet that I

958
00:43:04,159 --> 00:43:05,559
got involved with.

959
00:43:08,079 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 4: With another question, see.

960
00:43:09,079 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 2: I not to convert a fourth down at plus one

961
00:43:11,039 --> 00:43:13,559
thirty last week at fourth down attempts. I agree that

962
00:43:13,639 --> 00:43:15,960
whole heartedly. I'm not convinced that plus one thirty is

963
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,599
still out there anymore. Richard Lockhart's asking about both teams

964
00:43:19,679 --> 00:43:22,599
punt on a first drive. No argument with that, no

965
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,360
argument at all. If I don't like any score in

966
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,239
the first six minutes, I like both teams to punt

967
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,840
before their first score at plus three thirty looks like

968
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:34,239
a good look. Where can I find them? So one

969
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:38,679
of the issues with finding props and Richard, thank you,

970
00:43:38,679 --> 00:43:41,000
thank you. I really appreciate the questions, guys, Thank you Richard.

971
00:43:41,599 --> 00:43:43,760
One of the issues with props is where to find them,

972
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,440
how to scroll down? Where are they listed in the props?

973
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,119
What I did on my prop report was I put

974
00:43:50,159 --> 00:43:51,760
the number from the West Gate. I don't know if

975
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,480
that's helpful in any way to anyone, but it might be.

976
00:43:55,519 --> 00:43:57,320
But you got to dig around for them stuff, and

977
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,480
that's why. Also I made sure that in the proper report.

978
00:44:00,119 --> 00:44:01,480
I'm like, you can get it this way, you can

979
00:44:01,519 --> 00:44:03,119
get it that way, you can get it the other way.

980
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,679
If you can't find one prop, you can find another

981
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:10,079
prop that's comparable and still get the essence of the

982
00:44:10,119 --> 00:44:10,840
wager that we were.

983
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:11,199
Speaker 4: Trying to make.

984
00:44:13,039 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 3: Awesome stuff.

985
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:17,679
Speaker 1: I hope you guys have a very profitable Super Bowl. Teddy,

986
00:44:17,679 --> 00:44:19,880
anything you'd like to leave our audience with before we

987
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,400
get out of here for Wager Talk today.

988
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, so come back next Monday. Next Monday show, and

989
00:44:24,159 --> 00:44:26,679
it's a funny show. Is as we get, you know,

990
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,320
we get Kelly all pissed off about whatever happens on Sunday,

991
00:44:30,199 --> 00:44:34,239
and we'll go through what happens inter the props. We'll

992
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,039
great a bunch of props on air, and we'll go

993
00:44:36,119 --> 00:44:38,960
through the futures, the early futures for next year, which

994
00:44:39,039 --> 00:44:40,920
is I'll give some of my thoughts on which teams

995
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:42,280
I think are gone the way up and which teams

996
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:42,920
are on the way down.

997
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 4: It's a lot of fun.

998
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: It's a great show next Monday. As for this week's show, boy,

999
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,320
I want to thank you guys again. You're a terrific audience. Beautiful.

1000
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:52,079
Speaker 4: Don't have a change.

1001
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,280
Speaker 2: But really, the comments and the feedback I get for

1002
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:59,280
you guys every week is overwhelming. Sometimes I appreciate your support.

1003
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,679
Thank you and good luck with the game. And again

1004
00:45:03,079 --> 00:45:06,039
I don't want to overemphasize this that with your head

1005
00:45:06,159 --> 00:45:07,800
not over it, this is the week better is get

1006
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,159
in trouble. If you're struggling, get some help. It's okay,

1007
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:14,000
Thank you all right.

1008
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 1: Up next is wait to Talk Today. Andy Lang Dan Alexander.

1009
00:45:18,039 --> 00:45:20,559
Thank you to Teddy Covers. Thank you to everybody watching

1010
00:45:20,679 --> 00:45:24,159
US live as well as on the replay. If you

1011
00:45:24,199 --> 00:45:27,280
have a question regarding the Super Bowl, maybe, just maybe

1012
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,800
Teddy will jump into the comments section today and get

1013
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:32,119
you guys some questions answered. I will try to do

1014
00:45:32,159 --> 00:45:34,679
the same on my flight tomorrow. Good luck this week

1015
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:35,760
and we'll see you next Monday.