Speaker 1: Welcome in to the Opening Line Report, less than a
week away from the super Bowl. We're gonna get into well,
all things super Bowl today Teddy covers Journing Me. I'm
Kelly Stewart, wager Talk dot Com.
Speaker 2: Teddy.
Speaker 3: We've got lots to talk about. But off the top
of the show, we've got to walk back a little
something from last week.
Speaker 2: Sure, Sure, I mean, like we do with every show,
we want to start with what the opening line is.
It's called the Opening Line Report for a reason, and
I give out an emergency betting alert last week on
this show that was as wrong as wrong gets. And
when that happens, I got to investigate and figure out why,
and of course I got an explanation for exactly why
that happened. But let's start with what the markets are
doing right now. What have we seen since the opener?
From a side standpoint, not much. There was a little
bit of Seattle money early. Since that time, there's still
a couple of fives out There's a handful of minus
fives out there, mostly four and a halfs.
Speaker 4: Some of the four and a halfs are with juice.
Speaker 2: At this stage, it looks like Seattle's it's a two
way action game. Seattle's taking a little bit more money
than the New England, but it is not a game
where we expect to see the books get sided. It's
very clear, however, and we'll talk about it again when
it comes to the emergency betting alert issue from last week.
There is significant sharp support for the favorite in this
ball game, and that explains at least part of the
reason why my eba was wrong. From a total standpoint,
we've seen a little bit of under money come in,
so a little bit of Seahawks money at the open,
nothing much sin still.
Speaker 4: Four and a half five just about everywhere.
Speaker 2: From a total standpoint, we've seen a little bit of
under money.
Speaker 4: There was some forty six's out there. Those aren't there anymore.
They're forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: The the markets split between forty five and forty five
and a half right now, So we've seen a little
bit of under money come in.
Speaker 4: And of course, when you talk.
Speaker 2: About Super Bowl figures, a little bit of under money
is actually a lot of under money. But we've seen
under money come in, but not anything crazy in that
regard where we're seeing the line dive. So little bit
of Seahawks money, a little bit of under money, and
the books are anticipating two way action side in total
as we go into the weekend. As we go into
the week obviously with ninety percent of the wagers coming
the last forty eight hours before kickoff.
Speaker 3: Teddy, we're gonna get into some recent Super Bowl history.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get into the prop sheet, talk about the
opening night at the West Gate, and of course take
all of your questions.
Speaker 3: So if you guys have a question for Teddy, drop
it in the chat.
Speaker 1: But first I wanted to talk about what you just
mentioned in terms of what we're seeing now.
Speaker 3: This is just a one isolated book.
Speaker 1: I called John Murray this morning because I've got a
ton of shows before I leave for San Francisco, and
I said, hey, we're not doing a show today. I
need to know for all my other shows what's going on.
And he said, you know, crack. And I called him
last week live on the show and said, hey, would
you take a half a million dollars right now?
Speaker 3: And he said no?
Speaker 1: And I was shocked too, But that's because it depends
what you want to bet. It depends what the.
Speaker 3: Book's going to need.
Speaker 1: And at that point in time, they were still almost
two weeks out. So I said, hey, you guys moved
to five on the Odds logic screen and he goes, yeah,
it was kind of a test.
Speaker 3: We wanted to see if we could get any support
in the marketplace.
Speaker 1: And I said, Andy, he goes, nada. So you just
said that you think it's significant sharp guys coming in
on the Seahawks. Nobody's coming back there on the five.
But he did say he does not think this is
going to get to six. He would be very, very
surprised if this gets to six. And you mentioned as
far as the total goes, and he said, hey, we're
not going to book to need the under, and I
said why not? And he goes, because we've got sixty
percent of our handle on the props and guess what,
eighty percent of those are all on the over. So sure,
he said, it doesn't matter. We're going to be rooting
for the under one way or another. We don't necessarily
need to book for that side. So just a couple
of things worth noting there.
Speaker 4: And that's a really interesting point, all right.
Speaker 2: That is better than especially for you casual guys out there.
This is from the sportsbook director at the Westgates super
book talking about how, yeah, we already have all of
this other action that's pointed over, so we don't even
take a position over year towards the over. And those
type of little nuances, they're meaningful, you know, And certainly
when it comes to why this book has posted this
number at this time, it's very meaningful and when it
comes of course, but I haven't I haven't explained away
my emergency betting.
Speaker 4: Alert that was wrong.
Speaker 2: Oh yes, I has to be right off the bat,
because last week I'm like, this is what happens in
every super Bowl, and every super Bowl. Those who are
betting the favorite bet the favorite minus the points. Those
who are betting the underdog take the underdog on the
money line, and it happens year in year out, year
in year out. So that's why last Monday, I'm like, hey,
we've seen already some Seattle money. There's plus one nineties
is a prevailing number right now on the money line
for New England. I gotta think the money's coming for
the Patriots on the money line, not necessarily on the side,
you know, from aside from a pointspread standpoint, but on
the money line, and therefore there's urgency to bet it now.
So there have been two key factors that worked that
I was wrong about. First is the level of wise
guy support for Seattle. It's very clear the wise guys
like the favorite in this ball game.
Speaker 4: So when you're talking.
Speaker 2: About line moves two weeks out and ten days out
and eight days out, and you know, that's not the
recreational betters, that's the wise guys, and the wise guys
are on the Seahawks laying the points with Seattle. It's
pretty clear based on the line moves, pretty clear based
on everyone I've talked to, And as you mentioned, Kelly,
just a moment ago, you know, John Murray said, hey,
let's test see we get the five, do we get
any buy buy back? They did not get any buy
back at five. So that tells you very clearly that
from a sharp square standpoint, the Sharps do like the
favorite in this one. And when the Sharp's like the favorite,
they're not putting the dog on the money line ten
days out.
Speaker 4: So that was wrong.
Speaker 2: But the bigger issue, Kelly, is the exchanges. You know,
the Calci's, the poly markets of the world, and those
exchanges when it comes to the you know, minus two
thirty plus one ninety spread for the money line on
the super Bowl that we were talking about last week,
Those exchanges are more like minus two oh five plus
two oh four, you know, minus two six plus two
oh four. So the sharp money, the wise guys aren't
betting these bets at the sportsbook anymore. They're betting them
in the financial marketplace, where you can bet it at
reduced juice. Therefore, the plus one ninety as an emergency
betting alert. That's as bad as I get.
Speaker 4: Guys.
Speaker 2: Sorry, I do the best I can with these every week,
and you don't like to get one like the super
Bowl wrong, But I ain't perfect, and I will get
stuff wrong, and I got this one wrong. That being said,
you're looking at the money line, right, I felt I
got buried anyone.
Speaker 4: You know that the money's completely gone.
Speaker 2: The other way you look right now with the books
if you're looking at plus one ninety plus one ninety five,
So it's not like the information was devastating if you
bet it. But there are better numbers out there for
these bets than the sportsbooks themselves, and that's an issue
sportsbooks you're gonna have to deal with. And they're not
two distant future because if the financial exchanges start, you know,
sucking out all the profit, uh, sucking out all the
all the volume. That's certainly going to be an issue
for books that that cater to volume, most notably those
books like DraftKings and Fandel Back.
Speaker 3: East, Teddy.
Speaker 1: You and I can do an entire show on the
financial market things, the poly Marcus and the Calshies of
the world. But we're going to digress because it is
Super Bowl week. But I got lots to say there,
and I think that's why we're starting to see places
maybe like the Westgate Superbook, the.
Speaker 3: Legal books doing reduced uice right now.
Speaker 1: They're minus want to wait on Friday, They're going to
minus one oh five for the game. I mean we're
talking five cents on every dollar they're willing to give
up to say, Hey, come on over here and bet
this game with us. So I think that is something
we're going to start to see maybe from some other books,
maybe not the big ones like the DraftKings and Fanduels
of the World, but definitely I could see Circa probably
jumping on board with that as well.
Speaker 2: And as betters, that's music to our ears. You know,
when when books are y are fighting for our money
and offering things like reduced juice to get our money.
That's a good thing, you know, as a better you know,
we want the industry to be healthy. You know, doesn't
help us if books are going out of business and
things are going south. But as long as the industry
is basically healthy and books are offering some books, the
books that are trying to gain market share are offering
reduced juice and the like. That's exactly what we covet.
That's why we moved to Las Vegas in the first place.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, being able to shop around, especially at reduced juice prices,
will make or break your season. All right, Teddy, we're
gonna talk about some Super Bowl history. You did a video,
actually did a ton of videos if you guys haven't
seen on the Wayger Talk Instagram channel right here on
the YouTube channel on the YouTube shorts, Teddy put out
a ton of awesome content, So make sure you guys
go check that out. But one of the things that
you did touch on with super Bowl history. And I
feel like every single year at least.
Speaker 3: Since I've been covering the Super Bowl, which I think
my first year was really like full on, like twenty thirteen.
So it's been thirteen years now. Every single book maker wants.
Speaker 1: A boring super Bowl, right since they started putting out
that giant prop packet around town, since everybody's gonna walk
in the door and want about the over. It historically
is rooted in please be boring so that we can
make money.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the best super Bowl for books in
the last ten years with that thirteen to three Patriots
ran sleeper because that was boring, that boring game I've
ever watched, dude. And the advantage for the bookmakers in
a game like that is, you know, all the props
stay under under under under on it. And again when
you talk about what where the volume is for Super
Bowl Sunday, yeah, their side, Yeah, there's total, but the props,
depending on the book, they're going to range from fifty
percent to seventy five eighty percent of their come total action.
And when they get to you know, something like a
Super Bowl, it's through thirteen to three and they get
the scoop. You know, all the under you know, all
the anyone that bet anything over in that game lost.
Speaker 4: It's it's meaningful.
Speaker 2: That was the Super Bowl sun I remember talking to
the bookmakers that night of the morning after nothing but
big smiles on their faces all around town.
Speaker 3: Well I think they had big smiles last year.
Speaker 1: Until the fourth quarter, right the Eagles are blown out
Kansas City. There was nothing really crazy going on. Yeah,
the game went over the total, but as far as
the prop perspective from the Kansas City side of things,
and then all hell broke loose in that fourth quarter with.
Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett getting in the game.
Speaker 1: Then you have more than two and up guys throwing
passes like then things start to get a little hairy.
Speaker 3: For the book makers.
Speaker 1: Talk to me about some recent Super Bowl history, why
we need to look at it before betting this year's
Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: So we have the basics, and the basics have been
very strong to the underdog for the last twenty five years.
Last twenty five super Bowls eighteen underdogs, six favorites, one
pick them. Last eighteen years fourteen hundred dogs, four favorites,
or last nineteen years fourteen hundred dogs, four favorites, one
pick them. So laying points in general has been problematic
when we start to look at the history, and again,
I'm just looking at this centery. I don't care what
happened in the nineteen you know, the twentieth century. It's
all twenty first century stuff. But we start to look
at the bigger favorites, the favorites of more than a
field goal, and boy, it stands out pretty good. Let's
just run through them, all right. I got the list
right here. Rams minus four and a half was the Bengals.
The Rams won that by only three. Joe Burrow got
the money. Patriots minus four versus Eagles. Patriots lost straight up.
Panthers minus four and a half for the Broncos. Panthers
lost straight up. Forty nine Ers minus four and a
half for Surravens. Forty nine Ers lost straight up. Colts
minus five versus Saints. Colts lost straight up. So that's
the last five times we've seen anyone favored by more
than a field goal and a Super Bowl. Four of
those favorites have lost straight up. The fifth one won
by a field goal Pats. Then we had a couple
of We have a Steelers minus seven versus the Colts.
Steelers win that by only four. Pats minus twelve versus
the Giants. Oh, Pats lost that game outright. Then we
had two that actually won and covered the Colts versus
the Bears. That was Peyton Manning versus Rex Grossman. All right,
if you think this Super Bowl is Peyton Manning versus
Rex Grossman, lay the points, knock yourself out.
Speaker 4: I don't think it's that. And even that was a sweat.
Speaker 2: Colts covered there, and the Steelers minus four, and after
the Seahawks they won and covered as well. And people
still bitch about that Super Bowl is the single worst
officiated super Bowl they've ever seen. And now Seattle got
screwed on every call on. Pittsburgh got the money. But
that's the two favorites. You got Colts and Steelers, and
then you had the Pats minus seven versus Eagles.
Speaker 4: They won by only three.
Speaker 2: The Pats minus seven versus the Panthers they won by only three,
The Raiders minus four versus the Bucks they got blown
out in that game, and the Rams minus fourteen versus
the Patriots they lost straight up as well. So yeah,
that's two favorites winning and covering. These minus three and
a half were higher, two favorites winning, covering eleven favorites,
failing to cover six of those eleven favorites.
Speaker 4: I believe won two, three, four, five sixty seven of.
Speaker 2: Those favorites losing out right, it has not been a
good track record for the last twenty five years, laying
more than a field goal in the Super Bowl, And
in my opinion, Kelly, that trumps every other consideration. I
could think I made a boy, I made a good
case for the forty nine ers against the Ravens. They
were so much better than Baltimore that year. Didn't matter
once you had the two of prep and the hype
and the brother versus brother and whatever it was. And
you know, obviously the game came down to Colin Kaepernick
missing four attempts from the two yardlands.
Speaker 4: Some pretty weird play calling in that span.
Speaker 2: That being said, there was no difference on the field,
Seattle about Baltimore's every bit as good as San Francisco.
I remember making a case and another favorite, you know,
whether it's a panther. I mean, you can go on
and on down the line. Every time you've tried to
make a case for these favorites, going, Yeah, the regular
season they were better. The playoffs they were better, the
situations better, the matchups are better. It just hasn't panned
out that way. So for me, in terms of thinking
about this game, yeah, I understand the wise guy support
for Seattle, but the track record of this particular game
on Super Bowl Sunday, that's meaningful as well, very meaningful
for this better all right.
Speaker 1: Our good friend Ralph does a Super Bowl Guy that
he puts up for free on wager talk dot com. Teddy,
have you read through the whole guide? It's it's very extensive.
Speaker 3: I'm hand up. I afforded to Ariel and I said,
send me the cliff notes, tell me, tell me, prov
queen what we're betting in this game. I know, I'm
this kind of guy to the point where the prop.
Speaker 1: Market is dominated by people that know so much more
than me. So I'd rather take their information than try
to decipher things myself. I know that sounds a little lazy,
but I'm outsourcing my Super Bowl props.
Speaker 2: So, I mean, I am not a guy who bests
props every week, every month, you know, all year long.
Speaker 4: But every year I bet Super Bowl props.
Speaker 2: Why Because I got a bunch of friends in town
that know what the hell they're doing, and I listen
to what they're talking about. Okay, absolutely, and that's why
I'm at the West Gate for the opener. When you know,
we talk about things you want to do, what you know,
and obviously we're talking about come out to Vegas for
March Madness, come out to Vegas for Super Bowl that
prop night at the Westgate, and again they do it
every year. You've never seen more guys dressed worse with
more money, you know what I'm talking about. Everybody's wearing
a sweat suit of fifty times, you know, with fifty
nimes and rubber bands. There are more and obviously not
people have accounts now, it's not it's not quite as
much cash as there used to be, but there's still
plenty of cash. There's all kinds of cash at the
west Gate. And nobody, you know, there's nobody dressing in
the suit. Nobody even has the jacket like this. I mean,
it's all you.
Speaker 3: I guarantee you and Crack were the two best dressed
guys there that night.
Speaker 2: I probably, But it's a wise guy party, and you know,
there's not a lot of wise guy parties, you know,
so just to be there, be a fly on the wall,
talk to the guys, you know, meet a couple of
new guys. To me, it's very you know, I love
going down there. I try to make it as I've
been a handful of years I've missed, but I've been
down there almost every year, uh since I've been in Vegas,
and obviously this is my twenty eight Super Bowl in
Las Vegas. So it's something that I like to do
and I find it really I find it helpful, I
find it informative, and I find it entertaining. And you
put all those together, man, that's that's a good reason
to go there. So I understand it's it's usually ten
days out for the Shuper Bowl, so you're not going
to come out to you know, for the for prop
party and stick around for the game at the hotel.
But and it's not March madness, but.
Speaker 4: It is kind of cool.
Speaker 2: If you got a chance, you should go one time.
Speaker 4: I highly recommend that you've been there.
Speaker 1: No, it's it's great And the reality is is you
get to kind of see what the openers are too.
Remember that packet gets printed one time. They're not updating it.
So once if it says it's eighty four and a
half receiving yards for.
Speaker 3: Wide receiver acts, guess what.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's staying that way, even though somebody just keeps
hammering the over and it's moving up in half point increments.
So remember the latest ones are going to be updated
on the app or in person on the giant board. Teddy,
you got that packet almost a week ago. Now, how
many bets did you make that opening night?
Speaker 2: So opening I didn't make any bets. That's not my
m you know, that's not how I do it. And
I want to see where the money's going. I want
to track my own stuff. I want to pay attention.
Of course, you know, I took ship ton of notes.
Uh you know uht.
Speaker 3: Just like I do everything that I do, I something
of interested me.
Speaker 2: I write it down, sure, and because because also, I
mean so some of the guys that I'm hanging with
down there, you know, you know the frank Bs the world,
you know, some of the best betters in the world.
But you know me, I can't take anyone, you know,
I whatever someone E gives me, I can I can't.
I'm not blindly betting what other people tell me. You know,
That's not how I got this job, and that's not
how I'm going to keep this job. You know, I
got to do my own work. So when I get Infoma,
I go home and I do my work with it.
And then what we have is the Teddy Covers legendary
proper port I call that dirty does in this year.
Uh it's posted right now. I put it up yesterday,
uh at on my homepage, w dot Buzz, backslash TC.
So we got the side up. You guys are probably
pretty kind. I'm not gonna tell you what my side
bet is, but I think you know the side.
Speaker 3: Uh you did that the side of course I talked.
Speaker 2: I opened the show talking about recent Super Bowl history
and talked about how I thought that probably trumped any
matchup advantages. So I'm not gonna tell you guys who
I bet, but if you're paying.
Speaker 3: Attention, you guys can read between the lines from Teddy exactly.
Speaker 2: So anyhow, that's up on my page right now or
wagetalk dot com. And the twelve props and the key
with the props, I'm gonna get graded on twelve of them.
But with many of the write ups I wrote, you
can get at this prop this way, you can get
at this prop that way. If you can't find this one,
look for this number. So it gives you some flexibility
to look around. And because some of these probably are
paying and they asked to find you know, and it's
a mix between player props and what i'll call general props.
Speaker 4: You know, the first score of the game will be,
first play of the game will be.
Speaker 2: That type of stuff. And so it's about the split
between the two. But twelve props in total. But honestly,
if you look at that report, you can probably get
twenty bets out of it.
Speaker 1: Pretty they're not going to be getting the coin toss
from you, Teddy.
Speaker 2: I did not give a recommendation on the coin toss.
If you like to bet the coin toss, I do
have advice, and a serious advice.
Speaker 4: If you want to bet the coin.
Speaker 2: Toss, Yes, for the love of God, bet it reduced
juice Somewhere, our.
Speaker 1: Friends, there will be somebody at your super Bowl party
if you want heads, that wants tails.
Speaker 3: Now. The only thing is they may not take a
nickel from you. You may only get five bucks from
one of your buddies.
Speaker 1: But I always say that there is always somebody that's like, no,
I want I always want heads because it's just a
stupid bet right out of the gate. That is technically
a fifty to fifty proposition, but it no longer becomes
a fifty to fifty proposition. If you're laying minus one
ten with your local or somebody.
Speaker 2: Minus one fifteen both ways awful, it's off. I'm like,
that's a little rough. You can lay one on one
at the West Gate, isn't it? One on one each day?
Speaker 3: One at the West Gate?
Speaker 1: And I'm sure plenty of other books probably have Mary
reduced juice as well, if you're looking to get down
some crazy exorbitant amount.
Speaker 2: But I always say, if you if you feel the
need to have action on the coin toss, make sure
you bet it reduced juice.
Speaker 4: And if you got an edge lesson I mean no,
I'm real, Yeah, I.
Speaker 3: Would love to know if anybody has a coin toss edge.
Speaker 1: Actually, you know what, I wish I would have started
doing Deddie just writing it down because I think I
lost heads like six years in a row.
Speaker 3: Like I'm not even they're.
Speaker 2: Due kill, they're due. It's gotta be your head. Yeah again.
So that's one of the things I guess that I don't.
I'm an action every day, you know, I bet just
about it. I can't say I bet three hundred sixty
five days a year, but I bet three hundred and
fifty days a year. Let's say, you know, I don't
need action on the coin toss. It's okay, you know
I don't need action out you know, there's will be
an all kinds of action on Super Bowl Sunday. I
don't need that extra foom fun, the on the on
the especially, I don't want to watch the game before kickoff.
I don't want to sit there for twenty how many
hours of commercial between the coin top and the game
actually starting. You know, it feels like that they you know,
it's like an hour.
Speaker 1: It's like an hour of just talking heads and coin
tosses and of course nationally them and all that fun stuff.
Speaker 3: If you if you do the going tous call the hotline.
Speaker 2: There's truth to that, you know, and we don't talk
about it. And I want to talk about it right
now because it's important, all right, if you're having a problem,
and Super Bowl brings out problems for for problem gamblers,
all right, if you're having a problem controlling yourself, if
you're having a problem saying I gotta givement this coin
to us, you have having a problem.
Speaker 4: Betten more than you should. This is a big week
for gamblers.
Speaker 2: Anonymous this is a big week for helplines, and it's okay.
We're all human, all right, It's okay to get help
if you can't control yourself gambling, you're not the You're
not You're not doing yourself for anyone, you know.
Speaker 4: An he favors by going on, give me a little
more action.
Speaker 2: I'll let me bury myself one more time. To be
a successful, happy, healthy, functioning gambler, you gotta be able
to hit the brakes and stuff like coin toss is
kind of a leading indicator for that. If you're struggling
to get the break. This is a tough week for
people with gambling addiction. Get some help. It's okay. No
one's mad at you. Get some help if you don't,
and you can handle yourself, continue watching the show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Teddy, I actually it's crazy. Ten years ago, this
exact game you and I were filming. I cannot remember
which documentary it was, not Action because it was way
before action, a couple of years before. And I was
standing in line at the Westgate super Book and I
had like three or four dimes on me, right, and
the guy was like, how much are you going to
bet on Seattle?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: I think Seattle was catching what.
Speaker 2: One and a half with a pick.
Speaker 1: I felt like off market, though whatever the reality was,
I ended up betting basically all the money that was
in my fanny pack because the cameras were rolling and
I really like Seattle, but there was an extra like
pressure and the way that game ended obviously could have
went either way. But the reality was I beat myself
up about that for a long time, and I think
sometimes gamblers do need that to happen. And to this day,
I will not bet more than a certain amount on
a game one, two or three units the end because
I've seen people bury themselves unnecessarily. I didn't love Seattle
in that game.
Speaker 3: There was no reason for me to have three.
Speaker 1: Full units when I had full intention of betting one
unit on the game to have some action.
Speaker 3: And I really learned a hard lesson there.
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to kind of piggyback that with
this is not coming from a place of like we're
looking down on it.
Speaker 3: This is coming from a place we've all been there.
Speaker 2: So this is my twentieth Super Bowl in Vegas, and
when I talked about it, I'm like, I've learned this
lesson the hard way.
Speaker 4: I learned that lesson the hard way. I learned the
other lesson the hard way.
Speaker 2: Let me share so in my experience with you, so
you don't have to learn these lessons the hard way.
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter. People want to learn the hard way.
Speaker 3: You have to go with your.
Speaker 1: Kid, or with my niece or whoever I tell a
story to. People have to learn it the hard way.
We just hope that you, guys do seek help if
you do need it, especially when it comes to exorbitant
amounts of money that you should not be betting, regardless
of loss on a game.
Speaker 2: Super Bowl is great for action I put I put
out these props, all right. I put out you know,
a dozen I called the Dirty dozen, and they're all
a quarter of a unit, all right. A little bit
of action action here, action there, action everywhere. It is
a sport. It's the Christmas for sports betters. It's our holiday,
all right. We should enjoy it. But for the love
of God, don't be betting money you can't afford to lose,
and don't keep your unit size as small. If you
keep your unit size as small, you're fine with any
of this stuff, you really are. But like Kelly said,
and I remember that it's weird. I don't remember who
we were on air with that day either, but I
were there. I was there, you were.
Speaker 3: There, I was there. We're all at the West Gates
Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Ye.
Speaker 1: I think that was just action because I think that
was one of the first times I had met you,
because I hadn't started working for wager Talk yet.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, I remember.
Speaker 4: I remember.
Speaker 2: I remember with Malynsky meeting you and and we had
you do that. What we were trying to pitching Fox
to try to do a sport Yeah, you talked today
on Fox in twenty and fourteen or something.
Speaker 4: It was oh my gosh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I had you doubt it to do it
for the for the pilot that we shot.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 2: But the fact that we were already connected then, that
was I think it was twenty fourteen.
Speaker 4: I rey knew you then, so I've known you for
longer than I think.
Speaker 3: I think, so, I think you're right. Wow.
Speaker 1: Anyway, last from the past. Thanks for making me feel old, Teddy.
Get back into a little bit more of some of
the prop stuff that you're going to have, what people
can expect from you, and ultimately where they should be
looking for value on this giant prop sheet. I mean,
we're you guys all did different videos. Marco said, hey,
avoid these bets. You said, avoid soccer bets. Things like that,
like when diving into this extensive prop sheet, where should
people be looking and where should they be avoiding?
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean so, and you talked about the
videos that we just shot for Instagram and really excited
about what these you know, what these guys were doing.
But of course when you when you're doing those type
of videos, you got to hype a little bit more.
So I came with a bunch of energy in a
bunch of yeah, this is what we got.
Speaker 4: And then that.
Speaker 2: Apparently carries well for these videos because they've gotten a
ton of views already. But certainly I talked about three
sucker bets that get made every year in the Super Bowl,
and I want to talk about that here. You know,
the yes, overtime is not priced appropriately, all right, And
I know people are always looking to bet a little.
In general, the recreational betters want to bet a little
to win a lot. In general, the wise guys are
very comfortable betting a lot to win a little. So
the big plus prices out there, though, will there be
an octopus. You know, will both teams get a safety.
You know, their sucker bets their bets with you know,
they're offering these big payouts that are unlikely to cash overtime,
two point conversion safety or the three that I mentioned.
But certainly series history tells us a lot. A recent
history tell us a lot about what we can expect
first play of the game. It's seen a run four
straight years, six of the last seven. We have two
quarterbacks we've never played in Super Bowl before. I'm expecting
a run first play of the game. Here, that's one
team that scores first wins. This one actually is not
nearly you know, you assume that's a yes. That's not
a yes. That's five and five last ten years, team
to score first wins. You get a plus price on
the no. You know that being said team to score
last wins. Last year, that streak finally ended with the
team to score last wins because Case got the money.
But prior to that, I think it had been a
dozen straight years where the team to score last had
one score first six minutes of the game. And you
can find all kinds of odds on this. You can
find Seattle to punt before they score. You can find
New England punt before they score. You can find no
score first three and a half, four and a half,
five and a half, six and a half, seven and
a half, eight and a half minutes of the first quarter,
and they all have different prices attached to them. That's
the type of bet I wouldn't argue with the ladder.
So first score last year came with six eighteen left
in the first quarter, first score of the year before
no scoring in the first quarter at all. You had
a quick score and that thirty eight to thirty five
Chiefs Eagles Super Bowl. Both team score touchdowns in the
first drive. That's been the exception rather than the rule
before that. No no, no, no, no, no, and no
the previous six years. So that's seven of the last eight, sorry,
eight of the last nine no score first six minutes
of the game.
Speaker 4: We've seen relatively low scoring starts.
Speaker 2: The three unanswered scoreres prop that's one that I always
like to talk about, calicuse. That's one when I first
moved to Vegas. That was like the wise guy prop ooh,
three unanswered scores, lay minus won sixty, lay minus won eighty,
and he used to lay it every year. Then all
of a sudden, I started losing with it, and I
kept losing with it. And that's another one that's ten
into five and five over the last ten meetings. And
when you lay in minus one sixty on a prop
that's fifty to fifty, that's problematic. I no longer bet
the wise guy prop of yes, the one team will
have three unanswered scores. And especially if I like the
underdog in a game like this, that's another reason not
to make that bet, because you think the dog.
Speaker 4: Is going to hang.
Speaker 2: Defensive or special teams touchdowns now this, you know, we
talk about defense special team That used to be a
sucker bet. And in the modern era, you know, I've
seen six what is six and six the last dozen
Super Bowls. The modern era, we have seen plenty of
defensive and special teams touchdowns. We go back to you know,
Bear's Bears cults with a special team's TV in that
ball game. So it's certainly not an automatic no. And
again you get a plus price on the yes. Most
of the sharp guys I know consider there's a sucker
bet to bet the yes on.
Speaker 4: Defense, specially in touchdown because odds aren't right.
Speaker 2: Maybe, but it's been cashing just like a two point
conversion attempt to You know, the attempt is not what
I want. If I've bet no point two point conversion,
I want no point two point conversion made, because that's
one obviously that we've seen attempts on a consistent base.
What have we've seen at the two point attempts three
the last four years, six to the last ten. But
when you look at the maid, it's only cashed twice
in the last eight years. So the maid much lower
than the attempted. You know, the plus price is on
missed extra point. No, I don't want the plus price
on overtime, No, I don't want it. We again, we
have seen two Super Bowls in the sixty go to overtime,
but not a whole lot of quarter. Will a quarter
be scoreless? That's always an interesting one. And you get
a plus price on the Yes, a big plus price.
Speaker 4: And what do we have.
Speaker 2: Shoot, we've seen four times in the last eight Super
Bowls at least one quarter goes Scorrell. It's seen under
money coming in this one. So that's one worthy of note.
Should I keep going? Cal I can go on.
Speaker 1: And on here, we got nothing but time Teddy, we
have twenty seven minutes until Wager talked today. We got
some questions in the chat I would love to get
to as well. So if you've got stuff that you
have to share, I'm just over here taking notes because
Guss Who's gonna be on radio road tomorrow, so I
need to make sure that I'm prepared for a lot
of the stuff that is in the prop guide.
Speaker 3: But again, I'm getting the cliff notes here from Teddy.
Speaker 4: Sure, sure you have to.
Speaker 2: So the game decided by exactly three points. Three of
the last four years that's been decided by exactly three points.
Longest touchdown three of the last four years have been
forty five or over. That being said, the three years
before the last four years was all run plays opposed
to pass plays. And that one game, the thirteen to
three riveting game where we're talking about the longest touchdown of.
Speaker 4: The game was two yards.
Speaker 2: What was the eighty two yard interception return touchdown of
the longest one of the game for oh, that was
New England Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks for having oh yeah, speaking of having a
dog in that one, that was uh, that's there's just
certain memories, like you said, like we talked about the
Patriots ram Super Bowl being the worst in terms of
like action.
Speaker 3: That second half.
Speaker 1: Had I been on the Patriots, like everybody in the
room I was watching that game with. I had just
left Waste Management. I was at my buddy Cole's house
in Scottsdale, and everybody had a Patriots ticket. Like, just
imagine me sitting there with my Falcons ticket and going,
I'm in hell.
Speaker 2: That was.
Speaker 1: That was a crazy super Bowl where exactly what happened,
I mean that had to bury the books there late.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So that was one and I remember watching it.
Speaker 2: So I was watching it with care and my wife
were at a friend's house, and it was a lot
of fun. We like Todd do you know Toddy? Oh yeah, yeah, yeah,
the bunch of guys there. And it was this one
was twenty eight to twelve, and the Patriots fans were
starting to get excited, and I'm like, we got plus
three and a half. I'm like, Cara, I've watched enough football.
I'm like, this game is over. Okay, they need two
touchdowns and two two point versions, and look we're aren't
in field goal range. And of course then they weren't
in field goal range and they got two touchdowns, two
two point versions, one theason overtime and went to march
the game. And that's you know, that will happen once
or twice in a lifetime.
Speaker 4: But that game was over.
Speaker 2: You know, you can play that game one hundred times
and the Patriots will win once or twice. And they
won that one. So it sucked. That's one that I
and that's one. But there's not a super Bowl. I
don't remember, not a super Bowl. I can't tell you
who I had, what happened in the game. They stand
in your brain in a different way than anywhere in
the regular season games.
Speaker 1: Oh, they absolutely do. For whatever reason, they are a
lot more memorable. You mentioned that you were on the
forty nine ers. I was on the Ravens in that game.
We were at the Westgates Super Book. I was with
my buddy Jeff, and then.
Speaker 3: All the lights go out. Yeah, we're like, what is happening?
Speaker 1: Like, how can you not remember that the electricity went
out at the Super Bowl. It's like such a weird
Every single year, there's something that's ingrained in your brain
that makes you exactly remember that. I'll never forget the conversation.
I'll never forgive Kyle Shanahan for his play calling in
the second half. See that's how you guys remember it, Teddy.
Speaker 2: They're already in field goal range. I'm literally sitting back here.
I'm like relaxed. Already in field goal range. They need
two touchdowns anti two point of versions just to get
the overtime. Where are your field goal range?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, let's help that.
Speaker 1: That the Patriots, for my sake, figure out how to
play some really good goal one defense.
Speaker 3: Again, do we want to get to some of these
questions here in the chat?
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, yes, Now it's a great time to do it.
I'm just trying to make sure I answered. We went
through everything. So we talked about the emergency betting alert
and why I was wrong. We talked about the reason
Super Bowl. We talked about the prop sheet, we talk
about the westgate on opening night. Absolutely, let's answer quick.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll go to Sean first. What about fourth
down conversions at two and a half. Here's where, Teddy,
that I don't understand calculating some of these prop juice points, right,
Like how you three an answered scores?
Speaker 2: Is now?
Speaker 3: I remember when I first came to Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: I think I laid minus won forty with it when
someone told me to bet it way back in the day,
like a poker player was like, Kelly, bet this and
it was it was that was a lot of.
Speaker 3: Juice for me.
Speaker 2: Like remember, but that was the wise guy prop that
was like the secret hidden prop that you're like, oh,
it's really cool and always cases these guys bet to
buying his price, you know, like first moved to town
in ninety eight, ninety nine, people like this is the
one that's the prop you know, yeah, I get it.
Speaker 1: So how did we calculate what the appropriate juice on
these prop bets should be?
Speaker 2: Right? What about?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 4: Sorry, So let's talk about fourth downs? Okay, all right?
Speaker 2: In the NFL this season, you know what team converted
the first the fewest fourth downs?
Speaker 3: I think it's the Patriots Seahawks. Oh it's a Seahawks.
Speaker 2: Seven seven seven conversions for twelve attempts full season. So
when I'm confident, and that's a coach believing in his defense,
we can punt, we'll get the ball back. So when
I have one of the two teams that I don't
think is going to attempt a fourth down conversion, I
ain't betting over two and a half. You know it's
not going both ways. I can only play under with
that prop because I don't think Seattle goes for it.
Speaker 1: Okay, if you don't think Seattle goes for it, then
we need the Patriots to go for three times and
unless they're down significantly. Part of that game script is
in your handicap too, in this whole thing, right, Teddy,
Like how you see the game playing out, then correlating
that with your prop bets and things like fourth down conversions.
All right, Matt, Matt's whatever.
Speaker 2: But it's important to note, all right, because you can
really fall into disaster scenarios if every prop bet you
make falls into your exact game script and then the
game doesn't come out the way you think, you're just
gonna get buried.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So that's why when I'm doing my prop report, I'm
making sure that it's not just player props overs or
if I like the over for the game, or player
props under, if I like.
Speaker 4: The under for the game.
Speaker 2: It's a little there's a variety in there. So even
if a piece of your game script is wrong, you
don't lose every bet that you make.
Speaker 4: You know, that's the goal.
Speaker 1: All right, One of our wager talking insiders, Mad Max,
is questioning Drake May's arm health.
Speaker 3: Have you heard anything in regards to is he healthy?
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like we get to the point
midway of the season, right, all season long we hurt,
or all summer long, Matthew Stafford's hurt.
Speaker 3: We hit the midway point of the season, We're like
Matthew Stafford's.
Speaker 1: Not bad hurt.
Speaker 3: We've been hearing Drake May's arm has been hurt all playoffs.
We've been hurt.
Speaker 1: Hearing the Sam Darnold, I think it's his side or
as groin or some oblique oblique is hurt. Right, I
haven't heard that all week long, but I have heard
an awful lot about Drake May's arm.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Drake May also had the flu, which is
not necessarily the best scenario. Or you know, he missed
the day, missed a day for sickness as well, which could,
I believe, maybe help the other injury. But you know,
when you hear rumblings and bumblings, it could mean something.
Speaker 4: All right, this time of the year.
Speaker 2: That being said, don't forget there is no bigger hype
event in American sports in the Super Bowl. You have
five hundred reporters from five hundred different papers that I'll
get paid to go out there and write stories, a
lot of stories, new story every day, multiple stories every day.
Speaker 4: What does that mean?
Speaker 2: That means little things get blown up into big things
this type of week. When it comes to Drake May's injury,
I'm of the impression as of now that it's not
that big a deal. If it turns out that we
hear more about it in the next day or two,
you know, if Drake May's limited in practice this week,
that's going to change things dramatically, But as of now,
we haven't heard any indications that that's going to be
the case, even with the Seattle money. You know, you
talked about it. You don't think this line is getting
a six. If Drake May's hurt, this line could get
to seven.
Speaker 4: But I don't think Day's Mac is going to be
so hurt that the line will get to seven.
Speaker 2: I would expect him to be full participant in practice
this week, and if he's not, the marks will adjust
pretty darn quickly.
Speaker 1: Yes, then we might actually see a six pop up.
But as far as let's talk about the weather, Teddy
fan tone twenty four says rain and drizzle at least
here on Monday morning on the East coast is correct?
Speaker 3: There for Santa Clara. Remember, guys, is that Levi Stadium.
Speaker 1: Even though I'm going to be in San Francisco where
the convention center is, We're not going to be in
Santa Clara.
Speaker 3: It's so strange. I don't get it. Like at least
with Vegas, we were at the Mandalai Baconvention Center and
then Allegiant Stadium was across the street.
Speaker 4: But sure, it's pretty easy here in traffic for an hour.
Speaker 1: You know, is in downtown San Francisco to go, you know,
ninety minutes in traffic to Santa Clara.
Speaker 3: That's why I'm getting the hell out of time. On Friday,
I want to watch the game with my family in fronts.
Speaker 4: Well being on being on the radio row and the
like is you know, media row is pretty cool.
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, And there's gonna be great restaurants in San Francisco.
I get there with one of my best friends, so
it's going to be a really great week. But the
zoo that is the super Bowl on Sunday.
Speaker 2: I just assume I had no part of it.
Speaker 1: Crazy well and you know, someone's like, we, if the
Broncos made it, would you have gone? And I said, yeah,
if somebody gave me a free ticket.
Speaker 3: Fuck, I'm not paying an exorbitant amount of money to
go watch some Broncos who have won three Super Bowls
in my lifetime go win another Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So I had done at dinner last night with
small friends. One of them was telling me a story
about how he went to Super Bowl three by smailing
in an envelope with a six dollars chick.
Speaker 4: Six bucks.
Speaker 2: Gosh, that's just you know, he sent the envelope into
whatever NFL office there was, and he's like, yeah, back
in the in the early seventies, I went to four
Super Bowls are an eight year span, and I got
all the tickets ahead of time and never paid more
than twenty bucks.
Speaker 3: That's just outrageous.
Speaker 4: That's outrazing.
Speaker 3: And we all know I'm a seat snob.
Speaker 1: So that five thousand dollars seat, which is probably going
to be ten thousand dollars on the aftermarket, I'm not
faying tangering to send the nose weights. All right, Any
other questions you guys have for Teddy, please drop it
in the chat Teddy anything you want.
Speaker 4: To, Yeah, I want to.
Speaker 2: Matt Murray just put a question on the over six
and a half kickoffs returned, So I'm anticipating a relatively
low possession game. These are not teams that play with
a lot of tempo. These are teams that are both
reliant on their defense. So when you're talking about kickoffs returned,
that has a lot to do with A the total,
you know, that's another that's kind of a bet, and
b are the kickoffs actually gonna get returned or are
we going to see.
Speaker 4: Touchbacks and the like?
Speaker 2: But more than any factor, that's do with how many
possessions are we going to get in the game or
any you know, how many scoring positions? And that's six
and a half returned. It's not a bet that I
made one way or the other. The slightest of leans
to the under, but it's not a bet that I
got involved with.
Speaker 4: With another question, see.
Speaker 2: I not to convert a fourth down at plus one
thirty last week at fourth down attempts. I agree that
whole heartedly. I'm not convinced that plus one thirty is
still out there anymore. Richard Lockhart's asking about both teams
punt on a first drive. No argument with that, no
argument at all. If I don't like any score in
the first six minutes, I like both teams to punt
before their first score at plus three thirty looks like
a good look. Where can I find them? So one
of the issues with finding props and Richard, thank you,
thank you. I really appreciate the questions, guys, Thank you Richard.
One of the issues with props is where to find them,
how to scroll down? Where are they listed in the props?
What I did on my prop report was I put
the number from the West Gate. I don't know if
that's helpful in any way to anyone, but it might be.
But you got to dig around for them stuff, and
that's why. Also I made sure that in the proper report.
I'm like, you can get it this way, you can
get it that way, you can get it the other way.
If you can't find one prop, you can find another
prop that's comparable and still get the essence of the
wager that we were.
Speaker 4: Trying to make.
Speaker 3: Awesome stuff.
Speaker 1: I hope you guys have a very profitable Super Bowl. Teddy,
anything you'd like to leave our audience with before we
get out of here for Wager Talk today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so come back next Monday. Next Monday show, and
it's a funny show. Is as we get, you know,
we get Kelly all pissed off about whatever happens on Sunday,
and we'll go through what happens inter the props. We'll
great a bunch of props on air, and we'll go
through the futures, the early futures for next year, which
is I'll give some of my thoughts on which teams
I think are gone the way up and which teams
are on the way down.
Speaker 4: It's a lot of fun.
Speaker 2: It's a great show next Monday. As for this week's show, boy,
I want to thank you guys again. You're a terrific audience. Beautiful.
Speaker 4: Don't have a change.
Speaker 2: But really, the comments and the feedback I get for
you guys every week is overwhelming. Sometimes I appreciate your support.
Thank you and good luck with the game. And again
I don't want to overemphasize this that with your head
not over it, this is the week better is get
in trouble. If you're struggling, get some help. It's okay,
Thank you all right.
Speaker 1: Up next is wait to Talk Today. Andy Lang Dan Alexander.
Thank you to Teddy Covers. Thank you to everybody watching
US live as well as on the replay. If you
have a question regarding the Super Bowl, maybe, just maybe
Teddy will jump into the comments section today and get
you guys some questions answered. I will try to do
the same on my flight tomorrow. Good luck this week
and we'll see you next Monday.