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Speaker 1: The cycles that I was following in that MidCap four hundred,

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we're telling me to look for a final high, to

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wait until late November, ideally right around November twenty second,

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twenty fifth, and even had a multi month upside range

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target as what I call it, around thirty four hundred.

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Speaker 2: So both of those.

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Speaker 1: Things were angling a little in favor of the results

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that we saw on the election, and they both followed

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through on that analysis and on those cycles.

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Speaker 3: You were listening to Carrie let'sa's financial Survival Network where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 4: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Carrie Lets. And well, we got Ericattick

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with us today and you find him inside assid track

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Trading dot com. And we're going to do a little

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post election follow up see what the markets, what impact

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the election results are going to have on the market,

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or maybe they've already been reflected, and trends that you

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need to pay attention to that will be emerging in

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the coming months. Eric, It's great to have you back.

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So elections come and go, the market always remains the market,

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but there's definitely influences from elections, right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, excuse me, sorry, Kerry, Yes, thanks for having me back.

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Speaker 2: And certainly the markets have.

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Speaker 1: A either influence or correlation to things like elections and

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other fundamental events, often casting their shadows before or casting

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their shadows ahead before an event like that. And that

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was a couple couple markets that I had been discussing

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and writing about that, while not certainly not a clear indication,

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they were giving some clues and hints. Two of the

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ones that I really was highlighting throughout the month of

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October was first of all, a by signal that was

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generated in my work in bitcoin in early October. It

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was a successive by signal, another one in a series

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of them. But everything was showing me that bitcoins it

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should see in October November surge. And at the same time,

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the SMP MidCap four hundred was giving some strong by

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signals in early October, and the whole time the cycles

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that I was following in that mid cap four hundred,

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were telling me to look for a final high, to

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wait until late November, ideally right around November twenty second,

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twenty fifth, and even had a multi month upside range

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target as what I call it, around thirty four hundred.

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Speaker 2: So both of those.

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Speaker 1: Things were angling a little in favor of the result

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that we saw in the election, and they both followed

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through on that analysis and on those cycles, and the

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MidCap four hundred was kind of shocking to me just

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how precise it was. It rallied right up into November

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twenty fifths by briefly above thirty four hundred and has

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declined since then. So there's, you know, some of those

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markets that give you a little bit of a clue,

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but certainly not something you would want to trade or

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make a decision directly off of.

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Speaker 4: M So it's come to pass. Do you think the

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market is has seen its final high here for a

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while or the stock market, I should say, or are

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we going to see more of the same?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that it is setting a multi month high.

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And what I discussed back in early October was the setup.

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Speaker 2: The structure from a technical perspective.

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Speaker 1: Was reminding me of early June in that June July

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period equating to the October November period where you saw

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the small and MidCap indexes kind of take the lead

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and see stronger rallies than the large PAP indexes.

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Speaker 2: And that's what you've seen.

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Speaker 1: And since that late November peak in the small and midcafs,

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the Russell two thousand also peaked right in lockstep with

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those cycles. Then you had the down as that one

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hundred s and P one five hundred excuse me, follow

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through a little beyond that and initially set highs in

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early December. But I'm really watching some key levels in

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those small and midcalfs to see if they confirm and

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or signal something larger than just a multi week correction.

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Speaker 4: All right, So we've seen the price of gold go

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way way higher and getting in there looks like it's

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been sticking around the twenty six twenty seven hundred dollars range.

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Speaker 1: What we think?

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Speaker 4: What are we thinking here? And does the election? Is

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the election going to have an impact on it or

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is it just a trend that was already underway continuing.

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Speaker 1: I think that it's more of the ladder that ever

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since late twenty twenty two, I've been discussing what I

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thought would be a multi year bowl market in gold

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and coming into the third quarter. One of the key

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things I was watching was this very consistent it's a

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little over a year long cycle that gold has adhere to.

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It's a twelve and a half month cycle, usually fifty

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four to fifty nine weeks, although in the recent phases

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it's been very close to that fifty four week timeframe,

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and it had set successive lows in September of twenty

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twenty two October of twenty twenty three, and was telling

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me to look for an inversion and a peak in

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late October, which is when gold set it is high.

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I think that that highest is likely to hold for

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at least a few months. Ultimately, I would expect gold

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to resume that up trend, but there still is a

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question as to whether the intervening correction is complete, if

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it has seen its extreme to the downside.

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Speaker 2: One of the.

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Speaker 1: Interesting technical wave perspectives of gold's recent sell off was

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that it really mimicked and duplicated its largest decline of

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the last year and bottoms right when it equaled that advance.

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So you had kind of this wave similarity comparison going

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on there, which is technically something to look for at

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least an initial low. But again I'm waiting for some

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clear indication whether the correction is complete, and if that's

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the case, i think we'd still stay in a trading

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range for another month or so before breaking out to

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the upside, or whether there's one more leg down before

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the correction is complete.

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Speaker 4: Okay, and let's see interest rates. We always talk about

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interest rates. They've been coming down a bit. We're going

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to see them go lowerly as low as they can

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be now.

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Speaker 1: I think that there's another leg down eventually that goes

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along with intermediate analysis some three to six months trends

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and cycles, but also a much broader, much longer term

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cycle that I've discussed in the past, where you've had

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since the beginning of the US, there's been this seventeen

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year cycle that has timed thirteen of fourteen. So thirteen

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of the fourteen phases of that seventeen year cycle has

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timed recessions in the US, and the only time it

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didn't was when we were getting into World War two.

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And that comes back into play in twenty twenty five.

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And there's a lot of other factors, certainly leaning in

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that direction. Have also done some analysis and shown why

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I think that part of that recessionary cycle could also

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be some stagflation in there.

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Speaker 2: But I do think that.

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Speaker 1: Between now, really my cycles were bottoming in November for bonds.

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Between the and the first quarter of twenty twenty five,

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you could see interst rates edging lower and see perhaps

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some signs of that recessionary impact hitting the markets. But

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I think, like I said, towards the latter part of

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twenty twenty five, I think that you're going to see

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some new inflationary pressures and perhaps resulting in a form

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of stagflation moving forward from that time frame.

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Speaker 2: So I think interest rates are in.

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Speaker 1: For a volatile time as evidence of each of those

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factors hits the markets and comes to fruition. But all

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in all, I do think that bonds have probably hit

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a multi month low, which interest rates are the inversion

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of that. So those interest rates have seen a multi

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month peak in mid November, and that they should drift

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lower into the first quarter of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: All right, all right.

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Speaker 4: So I guess we should talk about oil. It's trading

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like ground just under seventy bucks a barrel. Now, WTI

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and that kind of fits in with inflation and interest

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rates and everything else. So what's your take on it.

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Speaker 1: Well, I watch each of the energy mark it's crewed,

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unleaded gas, heating oil, and even natural gas, which kind

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of moves in a different cycle than the other three,

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but also as a little bit of a proxy when

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there's some uncertainty there. Also watch the Goldman Sachs commodity,

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which is heavily weighted in energy, and all of those

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factors except for the natural gas, but the crude in

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products and the GSCI. We're all telling me to look

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for a multi month bottom in September of this year,

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and although we haven't seen any big move up from there,

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there was your initial rally in early October, but since

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then all those markets have retreated and gone back towards

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the lows. But as long as that September low holds,

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which I expected to, I do think that energy markets

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are going to see a new rally, probably starting in

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December and then carrying forward into the first quarter of

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next year. So I think we're in a period where

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you're going to see some upward pressure on oil prices,

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not necessarily really a raging bull market, but something that

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is certainly tradable and has some nice upside to it.

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Speaker 4: Interesting. Interesting, all right, what else should we be looking at?

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Speaker 1: Well, one of the other things that kind of played

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in with the election cycle is the dollar US dollar.

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And you know, you and I talked back in twenty

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sixteen and again in twenty twenty, and what I discussed

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then and continue to focus on is a very general,

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broad correlation, but it continues to Holt true, and that

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is the movement in the dollar based on the administration

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Republican or Democratic that is in power. And since the

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early eighties, you've seen a pretty strong connection between the

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dollar selling off door during Republican administrations and the dollar

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rallying on balance during democratic administrations.

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Speaker 2: And one of.

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Speaker 1: The reasons for that, if you go back to the eighties,

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was certainly a strong desire for the dollar to week in.

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It was very strong at the time, but the Reagan

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administration wanted to see the dollar decline to help exports,

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and so you had leading up to and then after

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the Plaza Accord in nineteen eighty five, you had representatives

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for the administration constantly on the airwaves talking down the dollar.

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But that mentality has carried through and again you look

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at over the last forty years, the dollar has swung

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in lockstep with that correlation, and all of my work

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has been showing that the dollar should see a new

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decline in twenty twenty five. So that would fit most

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closely with if there was a Republican administration in power,

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if that correlation continues to hold firm, And so that's

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certainly the results of the election reinforced that outlook.

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Speaker 2: In the dollar.

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Speaker 1: And right now I'm looking at the potential for the

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dollar to remain in a trading range into January, possibly

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spike a little bit above recent highs in January, but

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then from that point forward is when some downward pressures

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should begin to resume on the dollar.

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Speaker 4: All right, Well, yeah, like we saw the dollar weaken

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up a little bit towards the summer, and we had

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talked and I was wondering if that was the the

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tip off that the election was going to go towards Trump. Well,

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and so it happened.

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Speaker 1: It's more of a correlation while that administration is in power.

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Speaker 2: So the outlook for the dollar was.

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Speaker 1: And that's even what we discussed back in twenty sixteen

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when I thought the dollar was going to see a

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multi year top in late twenty sixteen or early twenty seventeen.

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And that's why I thought in the middle of twenty

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sixteen that we would see a republican administration, and then

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in twenty twenty just the opposite that the dollar was

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looking like it would be bottoming and rallying for a

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couple of years from twenty twenty into twenty twenty two.

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That was, in my opinion, favoring a democratic administration. And

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now here we are again. The outlook is really here

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we are. The thing that I focus on because that's

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when the administration power does have some influence on the

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movement of the dollar.

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Speaker 4: M Yeah, it's just interesting to see. I got a

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question kind of off the cuff one of my one

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of our community or FSN community asked. This was Jim.

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I said, next time Eric is on, please ask him

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if any of the charts that he sees are affected

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by AI or somehow indicative of the AI revolution taking place.

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Speaker 1: That's one of those things that's really too specific for

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the type of work that I do to really convincingly

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make a conclusion one where or another. I guess it

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would have to take into account a lot of different factors,

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you know, whether that really does ultimately help with automation,

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or whether it has positive or negative impact on true

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employment as as AI starts to become a competing.

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Speaker 2: Factor in there.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I do watch several of the related stocks

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for my own.

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Speaker 2: Information and.

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Speaker 1: Help, or as a proxy for things like the tech indexes.

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But I don't know that I would necessarily say that

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I can conclude anything from looking at, you know, a

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couple of years worth of focus on AI potential and

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apply that to the broader outlook.

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Speaker 4: I kind of figured that was what you would say,

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but you had the questions I had to ask it. Hey,

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all right, Eric, appreciate you coming on. As always, find

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Eric's work at inside track Trading. That's I n side

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Tracktrading dot com. And if getting questions comments for Eric myself,

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shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets dot com.

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You'll find a link in the show notes to this

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interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. And please, when

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you go there, sign up for your free newsletter, like

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sixty thousand other FS and members have done. Eric, appreciate

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you coming on. We'll talk to you again real soon.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Thanks for listening to Carrie let's's Financial Survival

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Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,

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00:19:48,079 --> 00:19:53,720
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now

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