Speaker 1: The cycles that I was following in that MidCap four hundred,
we're telling me to look for a final high, to
wait until late November, ideally right around November twenty second,
twenty fifth, and even had a multi month upside range
target as what I call it, around thirty four hundred.
Speaker 2: So both of those.
Speaker 1: Things were angling a little in favor of the results
that we saw on the election, and they both followed
through on that analysis and on those cycles.
Speaker 3: You were listening to Carrie let'sa's financial Survival Network where
you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else
to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork
dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
Survival Network now more than ever.
Speaker 4: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carrie Lets. And well, we got Ericattick
with us today and you find him inside assid track
Trading dot com. And we're going to do a little
post election follow up see what the markets, what impact
the election results are going to have on the market,
or maybe they've already been reflected, and trends that you
need to pay attention to that will be emerging in
the coming months. Eric, It's great to have you back.
So elections come and go, the market always remains the market,
but there's definitely influences from elections, right.
Speaker 1: Yes, excuse me, sorry, Kerry, Yes, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 2: And certainly the markets have.
Speaker 1: A either influence or correlation to things like elections and
other fundamental events, often casting their shadows before or casting
their shadows ahead before an event like that. And that
was a couple couple markets that I had been discussing
and writing about that, while not certainly not a clear indication,
they were giving some clues and hints. Two of the
ones that I really was highlighting throughout the month of
October was first of all, a by signal that was
generated in my work in bitcoin in early October. It
was a successive by signal, another one in a series
of them. But everything was showing me that bitcoins it
should see in October November surge. And at the same time,
the SMP MidCap four hundred was giving some strong by
signals in early October, and the whole time the cycles
that I was following in that mid cap four hundred,
were telling me to look for a final high, to
wait until late November, ideally right around November twenty second,
twenty fifth, and even had a multi month upside range
target as what I call it, around thirty four hundred.
Speaker 2: So both of those.
Speaker 1: Things were angling a little in favor of the result
that we saw in the election, and they both followed
through on that analysis and on those cycles, and the
MidCap four hundred was kind of shocking to me just
how precise it was. It rallied right up into November
twenty fifths by briefly above thirty four hundred and has
declined since then. So there's, you know, some of those
markets that give you a little bit of a clue,
but certainly not something you would want to trade or
make a decision directly off of.
Speaker 4: M So it's come to pass. Do you think the
market is has seen its final high here for a
while or the stock market, I should say, or are
we going to see more of the same?
Speaker 1: Well, I think that it is setting a multi month high.
And what I discussed back in early October was the setup.
Speaker 2: The structure from a technical perspective.
Speaker 1: Was reminding me of early June in that June July
period equating to the October November period where you saw
the small and MidCap indexes kind of take the lead
and see stronger rallies than the large PAP indexes.
Speaker 2: And that's what you've seen.
Speaker 1: And since that late November peak in the small and midcafs,
the Russell two thousand also peaked right in lockstep with
those cycles. Then you had the down as that one
hundred s and P one five hundred excuse me, follow
through a little beyond that and initially set highs in
early December. But I'm really watching some key levels in
those small and midcalfs to see if they confirm and
or signal something larger than just a multi week correction.
Speaker 4: All right, So we've seen the price of gold go
way way higher and getting in there looks like it's
been sticking around the twenty six twenty seven hundred dollars range.
Speaker 1: What we think?
Speaker 4: What are we thinking here? And does the election? Is
the election going to have an impact on it or
is it just a trend that was already underway continuing.
Speaker 1: I think that it's more of the ladder that ever
since late twenty twenty two, I've been discussing what I
thought would be a multi year bowl market in gold
and coming into the third quarter. One of the key
things I was watching was this very consistent it's a
little over a year long cycle that gold has adhere to.
It's a twelve and a half month cycle, usually fifty
four to fifty nine weeks, although in the recent phases
it's been very close to that fifty four week timeframe,
and it had set successive lows in September of twenty
twenty two October of twenty twenty three, and was telling
me to look for an inversion and a peak in
late October, which is when gold set it is high.
I think that that highest is likely to hold for
at least a few months. Ultimately, I would expect gold
to resume that up trend, but there still is a
question as to whether the intervening correction is complete, if
it has seen its extreme to the downside.
Speaker 2: One of the.
Speaker 1: Interesting technical wave perspectives of gold's recent sell off was
that it really mimicked and duplicated its largest decline of
the last year and bottoms right when it equaled that advance.
So you had kind of this wave similarity comparison going
on there, which is technically something to look for at
least an initial low. But again I'm waiting for some
clear indication whether the correction is complete, and if that's
the case, i think we'd still stay in a trading
range for another month or so before breaking out to
the upside, or whether there's one more leg down before
the correction is complete.
Speaker 4: Okay, and let's see interest rates. We always talk about
interest rates. They've been coming down a bit. We're going
to see them go lowerly as low as they can
be now.
Speaker 1: I think that there's another leg down eventually that goes
along with intermediate analysis some three to six months trends
and cycles, but also a much broader, much longer term
cycle that I've discussed in the past, where you've had
since the beginning of the US, there's been this seventeen
year cycle that has timed thirteen of fourteen. So thirteen
of the fourteen phases of that seventeen year cycle has
timed recessions in the US, and the only time it
didn't was when we were getting into World War two.
And that comes back into play in twenty twenty five.
And there's a lot of other factors, certainly leaning in
that direction. Have also done some analysis and shown why
I think that part of that recessionary cycle could also
be some stagflation in there.
Speaker 2: But I do think that.
Speaker 1: Between now, really my cycles were bottoming in November for bonds.
Between the and the first quarter of twenty twenty five,
you could see interst rates edging lower and see perhaps
some signs of that recessionary impact hitting the markets. But
I think, like I said, towards the latter part of
twenty twenty five, I think that you're going to see
some new inflationary pressures and perhaps resulting in a form
of stagflation moving forward from that time frame.
Speaker 2: So I think interest rates are in.
Speaker 1: For a volatile time as evidence of each of those
factors hits the markets and comes to fruition. But all
in all, I do think that bonds have probably hit
a multi month low, which interest rates are the inversion
of that. So those interest rates have seen a multi
month peak in mid November, and that they should drift
lower into the first quarter of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: All right, all right.
Speaker 4: So I guess we should talk about oil. It's trading
like ground just under seventy bucks a barrel. Now, WTI
and that kind of fits in with inflation and interest
rates and everything else. So what's your take on it.
Speaker 1: Well, I watch each of the energy mark it's crewed,
unleaded gas, heating oil, and even natural gas, which kind
of moves in a different cycle than the other three,
but also as a little bit of a proxy when
there's some uncertainty there. Also watch the Goldman Sachs commodity,
which is heavily weighted in energy, and all of those
factors except for the natural gas, but the crude in
products and the GSCI. We're all telling me to look
for a multi month bottom in September of this year,
and although we haven't seen any big move up from there,
there was your initial rally in early October, but since
then all those markets have retreated and gone back towards
the lows. But as long as that September low holds,
which I expected to, I do think that energy markets
are going to see a new rally, probably starting in
December and then carrying forward into the first quarter of
next year. So I think we're in a period where
you're going to see some upward pressure on oil prices,
not necessarily really a raging bull market, but something that
is certainly tradable and has some nice upside to it.
Speaker 4: Interesting. Interesting, all right, what else should we be looking at?
Speaker 1: Well, one of the other things that kind of played
in with the election cycle is the dollar US dollar.
And you know, you and I talked back in twenty
sixteen and again in twenty twenty, and what I discussed
then and continue to focus on is a very general,
broad correlation, but it continues to Holt true, and that
is the movement in the dollar based on the administration
Republican or Democratic that is in power. And since the
early eighties, you've seen a pretty strong connection between the
dollar selling off door during Republican administrations and the dollar
rallying on balance during democratic administrations.
Speaker 2: And one of.
Speaker 1: The reasons for that, if you go back to the eighties,
was certainly a strong desire for the dollar to week in.
It was very strong at the time, but the Reagan
administration wanted to see the dollar decline to help exports,
and so you had leading up to and then after
the Plaza Accord in nineteen eighty five, you had representatives
for the administration constantly on the airwaves talking down the dollar.
But that mentality has carried through and again you look
at over the last forty years, the dollar has swung
in lockstep with that correlation, and all of my work
has been showing that the dollar should see a new
decline in twenty twenty five. So that would fit most
closely with if there was a Republican administration in power,
if that correlation continues to hold firm, And so that's
certainly the results of the election reinforced that outlook.
Speaker 2: In the dollar.
Speaker 1: And right now I'm looking at the potential for the
dollar to remain in a trading range into January, possibly
spike a little bit above recent highs in January, but
then from that point forward is when some downward pressures
should begin to resume on the dollar.
Speaker 4: All right, Well, yeah, like we saw the dollar weaken
up a little bit towards the summer, and we had
talked and I was wondering if that was the the
tip off that the election was going to go towards Trump. Well,
and so it happened.
Speaker 1: It's more of a correlation while that administration is in power.
Speaker 2: So the outlook for the dollar was.
Speaker 1: And that's even what we discussed back in twenty sixteen
when I thought the dollar was going to see a
multi year top in late twenty sixteen or early twenty seventeen.
And that's why I thought in the middle of twenty
sixteen that we would see a republican administration, and then
in twenty twenty just the opposite that the dollar was
looking like it would be bottoming and rallying for a
couple of years from twenty twenty into twenty twenty two.
That was, in my opinion, favoring a democratic administration. And
now here we are again. The outlook is really here
we are. The thing that I focus on because that's
when the administration power does have some influence on the
movement of the dollar.
Speaker 4: M Yeah, it's just interesting to see. I got a
question kind of off the cuff one of my one
of our community or FSN community asked. This was Jim.
I said, next time Eric is on, please ask him
if any of the charts that he sees are affected
by AI or somehow indicative of the AI revolution taking place.
Speaker 1: That's one of those things that's really too specific for
the type of work that I do to really convincingly
make a conclusion one where or another. I guess it
would have to take into account a lot of different factors,
you know, whether that really does ultimately help with automation,
or whether it has positive or negative impact on true
employment as as AI starts to become a competing.
Speaker 2: Factor in there.
Speaker 1: I mean, I do watch several of the related stocks
for my own.
Speaker 2: Information and.
Speaker 1: Help, or as a proxy for things like the tech indexes.
But I don't know that I would necessarily say that
I can conclude anything from looking at, you know, a
couple of years worth of focus on AI potential and
apply that to the broader outlook.
Speaker 4: I kind of figured that was what you would say,
but you had the questions I had to ask it. Hey,
all right, Eric, appreciate you coming on. As always, find
Eric's work at inside track Trading. That's I n side
Tracktrading dot com. And if getting questions comments for Eric myself,
shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets dot com.
You'll find a link in the show notes to this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. And please, when
you go there, sign up for your free newsletter, like
sixty thousand other FS and members have done. Eric, appreciate
you coming on. We'll talk to you again real soon.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Thanks for listening to Carrie let's's Financial Survival
Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
more than ever