Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Wednesday, Rob. You you
know one a night last night. Two. You just can't
ask for a better start to the NCAA tournament. Two
games that come down to the final possession. I wish
you NBC ended a little bit differently, but I got
one back in the NIT so one and one for
me last night. It was a great night of basketball
to kick off the NCAA tournament. Hopefully we get that
kind of excitement tonight. How was your Tuesday night?
Speaker 2: Well, the UNBC game was especially good because I had
over one thirty nine and a half and it was
not really in question ever in that game that it
wasn't going to get over the number. Where I failed
last night was with the Yale Wilmington game over and
again someone kicked myself that you and I discussed this
one with each other. I kind of kicked myself for
up side underdog side plus points rather than playing total,
but I did what I did, didn't get there. And
also the late game UNLV and Cal Irvine, I head
over the total and it landed on one forty seven.
Crazy game there too. I know we're going to get
into a little synopsis of last night's n IT, so
I won't describe it yet, but yeah, we were a
little short after a very strong night with the opener
UNBC and the NSKA Tournament. The NIT didn't treat me
as kind last night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's so just one in one for me. Yesterday
I got my winner in the n I T. I
actually kind of wish I leaned a little bit more
into my NIT opinions may have may have had another
winner in there. But I want to start with just
a couple of takeaways from the NIT. But also I
will time stamp this because I know people are going
to want to come back to it. So I went
through this is just on teams that won yesterday. So
when I was talking about, hey, you really got to
know who's playing right, and like you know that that's
part of what we're gonna do today when we go
into the second wave of n I T games, I'm
not even gonna talk about the losing teams. There's no
point in wasting time talking about teams. Their season is over.
Rob This is just on the winning teams last night. Auburn,
no key, Sean Murphy, he just didn't show up. He
was They did the coaching staff was was unaware he
was not showing up, and so he did not play.
And I would be kind of surprised if he plays
at all in this tournament. That's typically not a great
way to uh you know that that that's not encouraging.
They said they they were not aware that he was
not playing. So that's that's one starter down for Auburn. Now,
Wichita State won their game. They had everyone there, but
will Burg got hurt. So that's one to keep keep
an eye on for next round. Wichita State might be
without their big will Burg in the next round. Tulsa
failed to cover against Steven f Austin. No David Green,
that's a big deal for Tulsa to leading for Tulsa
this year. He did not play. I'd wonder if he
is out for the for this entire tournament. Oklahoma State
had and I think you were maybe onto this a
little bit because you asked me about Davidson. Uh No,
Anthony Roy no Victorious Miller. I believe they might have
been disciplinary. So on the broadcast they said they broke
a team rule. So maybe you'll see those guys back. Obviously,
parselfala his his season has been over, so Oklahoma State
didn't cover. I'm kicking myself for like you know, it moved,
and then I should have just took Davidson anyway, because
you know they would have covered Davidson covered all numbers.
But that's when where Oklahoma State goes through. There, they
were basically without their top three or four scores, and
so that'll be an interesting one to watch in the
next round. And then the final one Rob Liberty. Liberty,
one of their leading scorers, Methany was out. The winners
Seattle UNLV, un C, Wilmington all full strength. So those
are the eight teams that advanced. Five of them had
key guys out and three of them were full strength.
So now that I've laid that out, there any other
takeaways from nit action that you want to kind of
put in this segment right here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can tell you that I do have a
contact inside Oklahoma State. That's how quiet. That was kept
quiet enough for me to be asking at I think
one thirty Eastern time yesterday, still asking any idea why
this line is going down to my buddy who is
getting direct information from I won't mention the name, but
one time very prominent coach here with a bunch of kids,
and they telling me would did not relay anything, not
any suspensions, not anything. So I'm sitting there wondering, because
I was on the Oklahoma State side, I'm wondering what
am I thinking here? What is wrong? Still couldn't get
to the info turn it on last night. As you mentioned,
of course we knew Fala has been out for four games, right,
He's not coming back this year. He's done. But when
you're sitting without Anthony Roy, Victorious Miller, Isaiah Coleman, and
Lukevich and you turn it out and then they still win,
it's not a ringing indictment for Davidson who had fifty
first half points and couldn't In Oklahoma State, there was
a point with about two minutes, no less than two minutes,
maybe a minute and a half left where they were
up by six with potential to cover, and Davidson did
drain the three and it kind of went back and forth.
So kudos to Oklahoma State. Like you said, throughout the broadcast,
they did talk about it quite a bit, and they
don't mention the team rule that was broken. They don't
mention whether or not Steve Lutz is gonna play these guys.
The remainder of the way, but something to look out for.
For sure.
Speaker 1: My gut tells me if it was a team rule,
they may be back next game. Usually, like Broke, a
team rule is typically one game. From from my experience,
I mean they they would have to you know, I
think suspended in definitely would have been the would have
been the word wording if it wasn't like a one
game thing. So that's something to keep an eye on.
Because of course, Oklahoma State did advance, and we'll play
in the next round and and you know, we'll see
what we can get to today. But ultimately I'm gonna
I'm gonna probably start tomorrow's show with this same thing
because that way you can, you know, go back to
the timestamp Saturday. These teams are gonna all play again
over the course of this weekend, I believe, either Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
I think is the next round of the n I
t And you know what's even more important, and what
I'll hammer home here before we get into our Miami,
Ohio SMU breakdown, is that the books are really gonna
lose track of these games once the NCAA Tournament games
are starting to go and so when you see these
n I T matchups up on a Saturday and books
are still trying to get lines out for the next
round because of course Thursday's games just ended, Friday's games
are going on, you will get a soft line or
two in the n I T And so that's why
I wanted to lead the show off with because again
like I don't, I don't know where I'll be looking
to see where David Green was. But if that's like,
that's one where it's like, okay, if he's hurt today
and he's gone this weekend like that, it t also
is fortunate last night to win, took overtime at home
to beat Steven f Austin. So yeah, some some and
what we'll do this tomorrow for the games tonight. I'll
be interested to see, you know, to see what uh
you know who who isn't playing in the n I
T games tonight. But first Rob, we've got some business
to take care of in the NCAA Tournament, the first
four And let's start with what what a game this
is going to be. I've been talking about it for days.
I'm either going to look very smart or very dumb
by the end of the night. Tonight it's Miami of
Ohio SMU. The reason I say that is because we
did a show and Wayger Talk clipped me sort of
basically saying Miami of Ohio is gonna win two games
in this tournament. I actually feel like if they get
through SMU tonight, they have a great chance against Tennessee.
But as far as this game goes, Rob, I love
the RedHawks. This is gonna be my parlay leg. This
is a client play for me. There's no sense in
trying to come on here and act like I'm not
like on Miami of Ohio Already, I've said it on
like four different shows. I said it on the radio
this morning. So it is my love for Miami of
Ohio as a dog here warranted And are you gonna
get involved with the total because you've kind of nailed
these Miami of Ohio totals all season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of the totals that I liked
coming out at him. I think we may have talked
about this, maybe you and I on Monday. Today is Wednesday.
Got to lose track of days. I don't think it
was Sunday. I think it was Monday, you and I.
But again, this is one of those where it's hard
to see defensive resistance on any side. We have so
much proof game results, data points, whatever you want to
call them, of the lack of deepense shown by both
of these teams. Of course, we're SMU. Let's just start
and begin with the BJ Edwards situation. He hasn't played
in a few games, probably not playing here tonight either,
so SMU has had a few games to get used
to that. And SMU has also had a couple of
games where they scored despite not having him seventy eight
against Florida State, eighty six against Syracuse of course in
the final, or in the SCAACC tournament, the game they
got booted from the tournament, they only scored fifty eight
against Louisville. Those teams had seen each other twice already
this year, so it's not hard to figure that there
could have been some defensive adjustments since some really good
defensive knowledge of sets and whatnot. But here, well, I
don't know. Miami O. We talked a lot this year, Adam,
as Miami O went through their undefeated season about how
kind of watered down the MAC was this year. There
weren't many good teams Akron, even Miami of Ohio. As
they kept winning and winning. They were winning close games,
high scoring close games, mind you, against lesser teams in
this league five hundred, sub five hundred, you name it.
So I don't think SMU is gonna have any trouble
whatsoever scoring. And they love pace. And while Miami's is
I think can be described as controlled pace, they still
do like first open shot, take it. And they do
get first open shot quite a bit and quite quickly oftentimes.
And they've got the guys Elmer, Peter Souter, etc. That
can drain these shots. So to me, it's an up
and down game without a lot of defensive resistance. Neither
side's going to back off. There's no you know, it's
too late now for Andy Enfeld to try and do
something different with the SMU defense. They are what they are.
I think they both believe they can outscore the opponent tonight.
To tell you the truth, I think Miami oh believes
they can win an eighty eight eighty six game. I
think SMU believes the same thing. So to me, after
seeing Dayton yesterday with UNBC and Howard and the amount
of points that were put up there, we know right
off the bat at the Dayton Rims, and I think
this was proven the last couple of years. Really, they're
not difficult rims. You score at this venue as long
as you don't come in too wired and maybe a
little bit too nervous. I don't think the lights bother
either one of these teams. So for me a little
bit surprised that hasn't moved off one sixty three. But
perhaps those who do numbers and play these games off
of analytics plus sharp groups, maybe they just thought this
was in a good place from the get go, because
this is one of those numbers. Is that the oddsmaker
hasn't had the move or hasn't seen his opener budget whatsoever.
But to me, over one sixty three right way to
go here in this one.
Speaker 1: But let's the point I made earlier in the week.
I'm still very like adamant that that's a good angle
for Miami, Ohio with the fact that you know, they
for two months, every single game they had a target
on their back. They were the favorite. They took every
single team's best shot in Mac play, they were every
team's biggest game of the year in Mac play. You
haven't seen a crowd like that at Amherst for a
UMass game in years right, like every single one. I
was at the game in Athens. Ten thousand people at
the convote for that game, and they won every single
one of those games. Yeah, they lose to UMass in
the conference tournament, but now they have like they went
from having all the pressure and all the expectations to
being the team with no pressure. And they were almost
like playing with house money because of course they're an
underdog and they're in the tournament. Part of the pressure was, oh,
if they lose one, are they going to get in? Well,
we know the answer to that. They're in and rob
they're also fifty minutes away from their campus. But to
further this, let's go back to the injury discussion. What
I'm hearing is BJ Edwards is nowhere near ready to
play like or in playing shape. So BJ Edwards, it's
his ankle. I fully expect SMU to milk this to
the point where he's even out there for warm ups.
Think like Donnie Freeman Syracuse for like the first month
of the season, where they sent him out there to
do warm ups every game and then he didn't play.
That's what I think this is would be j Edwards
because I think they had to make it as realistic
as possible that he would play to help there, because
if he was just ruled out, they might have given
this last spot to Auburn, right like if they knew
he was going to be out for the tournament. So
I think SMU had to sort of play it up
a little bit. I think if you see him tonight,
it's in a very limited roll off the bench. What
I'm more concerned with here, Rob is Corey Washington's now
on the injury report undisclosed. Okay, that's not good. Typically
you don't want to see that Corey Washington undisclosed injury
eleven point three points per game, you might be without
two scorers in a game where you need to score.
Because Miami of Ohio should shred this SMU defense. You know,
their bigs are not super fast, they don't depend defend
the pick and roll particularly well. So like Miami's gonna
get theirs here. In my opinion, the question is is
SMU gonna score up and over the number they need
to cover this number? And I say no, So I took.
I took Miami Ohio plus seven. I feel like I
maybe should have gotten seven and a half. That's on me.
The eight and a half was out there really, So
what happened from a betting standpoint was open seven and
a half on Sunday, it got quickly faked up to
like eight and a half and then bet right back
down to seven. It's been it's either seven and a half,
seven or six and a half ever since, So I
think seven is a fine number.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna call it right here. They're gonna win this game,
not even gonna need the points.
Speaker 2: It was a great draw to Adam. I think I
made this point a Sunday when we were on the
selection showed that every projection that we saw from backatologists,
and not that we pay a ton of attention to it,
but I did, because my youngest went to Missouri. Every
projection I saw, I had Missouri playing in this game
against Miami of Ohio. And in fact, they thought that
in Missouri in Columbia, Missouri, where I do a segment
every Friday afternoon, and they asked me the question. It said,
it looks like we're gonna play Miami, O. What do
you think? And I thought that was a great matchup.
For Missouri. Turns out Miami of Ohio gets SMU, which
is a dream matchup for Miami of Ohio. It's so
different than having to play Missouri. No physicality on the
defensive end, pretty much up and down style, no really
set type of offense here. So for Miami Yo, just
from a side perspective, really good draw and they do
have opportunity to move on here. Think it'll be high scoring.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And just to for additional context, I mean I
made the number five point four and that was before
having any idea that Washington might miss. So like, no
matter how you slice it, I think there's value on
Miami Ohio. Again, I didn't even get the best number
in this scenario. I got clients have seven, and I'm
even I'm fine with that. I prefer seven or better.
We will use seven for the parlay, and that is
one of my client plays tonight. Miami of Ohio plus seven.
So first leg of the parlay locked in. We need
to hit a couple of these rob maybe we'll go
three team or today we'll see what the rest of
the show brings. But what I'm gonna do, so Garth,
I see you there, and I'm gonna just go to
the other NCAA tournament game first, because enough people are
talking about it in the chat where I think we're
gonna get to it at some point anyway, So then
we'll go to your question. It looks like Bayu is
making a case for Prairie View in the in the
comments after last night, Rob, I think I might agree
with that a little bit more uh than than maybe
I did prior to that game. So what what I
mean by that is last night UNBC, I don't even
think UNBC needed to play a great game to win
that game. They just they just played poorly. And still
even with playing poorly, they still came down the court,
had a look from three to tie the game. It
didn't go in. But the more I sort of think
back to how that game played out, Yes, it was
poor play, but they also were very put off by
the physicality of Howard. And even if you heard Jim
Ferry you want an how about that end game quote,
Rob where he was just like he's doing an interview
in the first half and basically he's like, this isn't
my team right here. He's like, we're slow, we have
no energy, we're getting beat to to the spot. We're
getting beat to every fifty to fifty ball, and that
was ultimately the story of the game. Like Howard just
had better energy, they were more physical and and they
were able to win the game that way the swack teams.
So Howard comes from the MIAC Prairie View from the
swack typically that's the mo of these swack teams. They're
they're what they lack and maybe like basketball, you know, coaching,
like they're they're not always the You're never going to
turn on a swack game and just see like you know,
like Miami of Ohio type spread offense or Ben McCollum
type preparation. You're you're gonna see like super physical and
go straight to the rim. But it has worked in
these playing games over the years. Like the swack teams
have a very good record in the playing round and
it's because they run up against a team like Lehigh
who can't match them physical, can't match them on the glass.
And in Lehigh's specific instance, you know, if Prairieview can
shut down Hank Alvi, they probably win this game. So
I gotta be honest, at this point, Lehigh minus three
and a half, that's like way too inflated. For me,
I'd be looking to punch back with the dog. How
do you see this one, prairie View prairie View Lehigh
And can you apply that to the total at all
since you're coming off a total winning the play in
last night?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's in this game. For those who saw prairie
View win their conference tournament finals the other day and
in fact go back to watching them beat between Cookman
and Reggie, theis a couple of days before Adam, and
they've done it throughout with defense. How about this is
a team that's on an eleven and oh ats run
prairie View eleven and oh ats last eleven games? Done
it mostly with defense. But the point I want to
make about both of these teams, and more so about
prairie View when they won, When the clock hit zero
and they won that conference tournament final, it was an
absolute mob scene. A lot of these teams that come
from not the number one seed, but prairie View I
think came from a really low seed. Six. Maybe I
don't have my Swack tournament bracket in front of you,
but I think they came from like the six to
win that thing. And you'd have thought they won the
national championship, and now you have to get back and
get ready. I think that's what happened to UMBBC a
little bit last night. Still, the elation of beating Vermont,
of winning that tournament come out flat because these teams
don't get the full four days to regroup, reset game plan.
They go right back at it a couple of days
after being selected. So for prairie View, I do wonder
if they get right back on their feet, and the
same to me goes to Lehi, who as well, is
not a huge run. Seven to two ats eight and
one straight up. I didn't think they could win a
couple of those games. I didn't even at the end.
I didn't know that they would beat Boston. You, but
they did. They won all the way through the better
shooting team. I think that there's a real dichotomy here
between these two. Prairie View is going to defend like
crazy from the tournament two games that I watched, and
Lehigh is going to shoot the basketball very methodical. Prairie
View is not really a solid up and down type team,
but they are a defensive, hounding type team. So to me,
you could be looking at an under here. Adam I
don't know that the shooting of prairie View, and this
thing's been bet down now that I look this numbers
down to one two and a half open, one forty six.
I agree with that total movement here. Prairie View is
going to be up on Lee High shooters. Prairie View
not good enough shooting the basketball. I don't think to
dent Lehigh all that much. And the pace, I think
Lehigh can somewhat control it because Prairie View kind of
goes wherever the other side wants them to go. But
I wasn't pressed, especially by the win against Hugh Cookman
and this eleven and how do you get in front
of an eleven and zero points spread team last eleven
games coming in. I think the only way you get
in front of that is if you convince yourself that
the conference tournament final was so big for them and
they haven't had enough time to come back to Earth
yet to play this game. So we'll see leg I
can't shoot it good enough. If they open up on
a big run, maybe it wakes peririe View up right away.
But I could see prayer of you getting caught at
the beginning. But that defense is really, really good from
what I saw, and they're relentless. Adam, there's like no
lack of energy for prairie views. So I could see
under here in this case, under one forty two and
a half is out there. Yeah, more often than not
you can find one forty two and a half. So
I see some places even lower. But you shouldn't have
any trouble getting a one forty two and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was pretty tuned into this le high run
through the conference tournament. Toward the end of the tournament,
I went to the Patriot League final Athlehem, PA. And
what I can note about that stretch is, like I mean,
Hank Alvy's playing out of his mind, he is, and
in that conference, which I've talked about numerous times on
this show this year, the Patriot League is very down
from what it's been in years past. Like you know,
I use the No Williamson example, him leaving to go
to Alabama, right, Like for years, even at the beginning
of NIL the Patriot League, for the most part, you
would have the grad transfer out of the Patriot League,
but you didn't see guys really leaving the league. And
so now like this is as I think this is
as as not talented for that lack of a better term,
as the Patriot League has been in a long time.
They don't have a ton of size on any of
these teams. They don't have great bigs on any of
these teams. The last time le High faced some a
big that could really sort of take Alva out of
the game was their most recent loss on February eighteen
against Navy, when they lost seventy two to forty nine.
Alvi had eight points and thirty minutes. He couldn't do
much in that game. So like, that's kind of how
I think Prairie. You can throw some size and some
toughness at Alvi and if they can take him out
of the game, I mean, Lehigh's gonna have to go
nuts from three to win this game, in my opinion.
B You tried to do that a little bit in
the finale. But the thing is Lehigh did hit a
lot of those shots, and by Boston University just could
not shoot the ball in that game. That was a
They were one for sixteen in the Patriot League Final
from three, Boston You so you know Lehigh on You're
looking at Lehigh's most recent game seventy four to sixty win.
But you know Defty Ben Defty, who's who's a seven
foot center for Boston University. He did an okay job
on Alvi. I mean, be you just straight up could
not buy a bucket in that game. So maybe a
little bit deceiving in the final there because I thought,
you know, I thought they did an okay job on
Alvi in that game. And I think Prairie View is
set up to do an okay job on Alvi because
they have the more physical like they're gonna push him around.
They're more physical, they're more athletic, and if they can
really bother him to the point where he's not able
to take over the game, then I think you're going
to see prayer youew win. So I would I can't
really put anyone off wanting to take the three and
a half there. You know, I leaned lehigh rob earlier
in the week when it was like minus one and
a half, But now that that's got hit up two points,
I think the only way I could go would be
to go, you know, sort of punch back against the market.
Speaker 2: Again. I think Steve Duke right there in the comment
that you're flashing at him is you know, referring to
what we were saying about per review being on the
eleven and oh ats run. I mean, I don't know
how you go against that either. Very difficult to bet
into those things that, like I say, you can justify,
you can look for reasons, but it's guesswork. You're guessing
about a team's emotional state, and it's so hard to
beat games that you're only guessing. Could be right, could
be wrong. I always say twenty twenty hindsight. You know,
we don't have that going in. So, yeah, this is
this just seems to me. It's got a different a
way different feel than Howard UNBC did last night, more
free flowing, more offense oriented. This one, you know previews,
it's a squad that when you watch them, they'll run,
but it's kind of like they run with no sense
of where they're going. They'll score off of it, but yeah,
they just don't have a sense of where they're going,
but they could score. So interesting game. I would lean
a little bit under. Didn't play it, but I would
lean that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could see it being a kind of a
dog fight.
Speaker 2: There's Navy or we need Navy, not Lehigh, we need Navy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is. Uh, it's unfortunate, but I'm sure we'll
get to Navy in this In this show, let's go
to well. First thing a promo Double the Double Firepower
CBB packaged three day myself and Rob. If you started today,
it's Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Obviously, if you wait till tomorrow
you get Thursday, Friday, Saturday, although tonight is from a
betting standpoint, just as good as Thursday and Friday in
my opinion. With you know all the n I T games, I,
as I already said, played one last night South Alabama,
pretty easy winner. Kind of kicking myself for not getting
to the window with a couple others. But again, there's
just a lot of uncertainty when it comes to, uh,
you know who's playing in these games, and and like
you were even saying yesterday, like I I had heard
that Roy might not play for Oklahoma State, but I
certainly was unable to confirm it. And then they roll
up without multiple guys playing. So uh, that's what I'll
be doing the rest of the day. For the rest
of the show. Uh, let's start to get into some
of these n I T games. So let's go to
Garth here first, when he's gonna bring up he says
he's looking at Kent State plus five and a half
and I'm gonna I'm gonn to go go to my
Odds logic screen here because if it is five and
a half, which it is now, that's definitely taken some money.
Since the opener believe this open Illinois State minus seven.
This game is in normal Illinois tonight, so a home
game for the Redbird job Kent State taking money tells
me to look for a couple of things. One, Chase
Walker has has played through injury for a lot of
the second half of the season for Illinois State. That's
you know, he's one of the best bigs in that conference,
so I'd want to know if he's playing. And then
you know that like again, he's been in and out
of the lineup for Illinois State. So that coming down
a point and a half, that's that's that's where I'm
going to start to look and see, you know Walker
he played, He yeah, so he was out. He got
hurt on February twelve against Valpo, did not play again
until the twenty fifth. He did play, and it played
pretty poorly in the conference tournament. So one and a
half point moved to Kent State. That would be a
big omission to not have him against, to not have
for Illinois State, to not have him against this Kent
State front court. So talk to me a little bit.
I have nothing to confirm that, but that's where I'm
going to start to Look. Do you agree with Garth
that Kent State's got some value even after five and
a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And Edward Walker's concerned. Thirteen trips to the free
throw line in that conference tournament final shows that maybe
he was involved in a little bit of physicality in
that game. Maybe that's a good sign for his presence.
Maybe it's not. We'll see. But they did run into
the Northern Iowa buzz saw. If I just start with
conference comparison, Adam, the Missouri Valley Is obviously had had
a much better year and better teams than what the
MAC presented. MAC was top heavy, Kent probably the third
best team in that league, certainly Kent Cape, and you know,
Kent's one of those teams where I don't worry about
them being on the road. Honestly, Illinois State home floor
advantage not that bad. But again, you have to decipher
what's let's get back out on the floor and win.
And what's man, we're po that we lost the conference
championship game to Northern iowhen we missed our shot at
the Big Dance March Madness. That's the category that Illinois
State falls into. Kent State eliminated before the conference tournament final.
So I would think that they're more a little more
rambunctious to get out on their floor. We saw last night,
and I don't know this one the answer to this
one either, but we did see last night that Tulsa
as good as they are and at home put nobody
in the stands. That was a dark, empty building. It's interesting.
I'll just give us a quick side story here. My
son's band about to go on tour and their their photographer.
The band photographer flew in last couple of nights ago.
He's from Tulsa, knows a lot about the program, those
a little about OSU as well. But we looked at
the screen last night of the game, he's like, my god,
it must be spring break in Tulsa's when I left,
I think it was spring break. And then you look
at Gallagheriba where there were people and all these teams
are not on the same time frame where spring break
is concerned. So something to look into to see whose
gym is gonna be full? Who's isn't Illinois State in
a half empty gym wouldn't be good for them.
Speaker 1: Pretty big building there, Yeah, coming.
Speaker 2: You've been there, Go ahead and let them know you
you've been there.
Speaker 1: Well, no, I was just gonna comment. I'll let you finish,
you know, the breakdown. But you made a really good point.
No one. No one at Yale yesterday. Uh, no one
at Tulsa. But then you did have a couple of
good crowds on Auburn had a nice crowd Oklahoma State,
so you know that that's definitely something to think about.
Illinois State's pretty big arena. Uh, they actually lost in
the quarterfinal round, so they they were out on Friday
in their conference champion tournament in the quarters to Northern Iowa,
who Northern Iowa eventually won the conference tournament. So you're
looking at twelve days since they've last played rob But yeah,
like if they pull up to a arena that's not
that full, I would be concerned. I'm trying to think
because Illinois State has been in this tournament a couple
of times I can remember good n I T crowds,
but sometimes those good n T crowds don't come until
like round two or the or the quarterfinal. The quarterfinal
games tend to get a decent turnout when when it's
when you're one went away from like you know, it
used to be going to the Garden. Now it's going
to India and going to Hankles. So yeah, that's it's
it's something to definitely think about. You know how You
can can figure it out though, just go to the
website and see how many tickets are for sale. If
there's dots all over the seat map, I haven't been purchased.
On game day, probably gonna be a pretty light crowd.
George Mason had an okay crowd last night. But that's
another one. They always get fans, Like there's some of
these places they always get a turnout, But if you're
not one of those places. I was surprised that no
one was at Yale last night. That was that was
the biggest shocker to me. I wonder if I wonder
if that program was just so like thought they were.
They probably all came up to Anthaica this weekend, went
to the IVY Madness didn't make the NCAA tournament. I
wonder if they were just like, yeah, we're just not interested,
because that was the shocker for me that they had
no one in the stands there for that game. But
go back to to your point about Illinois State, and
let's say you don't get a super motivated Illinois State.
You know, Ken State could absolutely come in here and
win this game.
Speaker 2: Well, and I think they just you know, I think
they have more scoring ability, Adam. If we're gonna get
let's just get into fundamentals for a minute here, this
style matchup without because in these in these games, these
first round games, you have to drag in so many situationals,
so many exterior factors. But if we just get down
to how these teams match up, who should be able
to do what against one another? You know, the Kent
State is not an overly big team where height is concerned.
But Gillespie and Rob Whaley are a nice duo and
a high scoring duo where their height is concerned and
where their side is concerned. And I just don't Illinois State.
To me and watching this league all season long, there
were good scoring teams and then there was you know
a level below scoring teams, and I put Illinois State there.
They weren't in the class of Belmont, they weren't in
the class of Maurice State, they weren't in the class
really of Bradley, even Northern Iowa. At the end, as
slow as they go, you can depend on them for
offensive efficiency. Illinois State I think banks a little bit
more than Kent Wood on the defensive side. So to me,
the question becomes, can do I believe Kent can score
on the Illinois State defense? My answer to that is yes,
I think Kent has proven it. Again. You can say
that Kent did it against kind of lesser defensive opposition
inside the back, but they did it excessively. And I
would say this, I would say that Illinois State actually
didn't have a ton of defensive competition in their league either.
That was somewhat more of a balance league rather than
defensive oriented league. So to me, I would take five
and a half here tell you the truth that my
better look here from a totalist perspective, would be on
the Kent team total. This total has been bet up
a little bit, but Kent's only asked in this case
to get the seventy four points and they do that
on a regular basis. No matter who they play, Kent
can get the seventy four almost just by showing up.
So if they show up in front of a flat
crowd in an empty building where they're motivated, I think
kit team total probably would be my best look here.
Speaker 1: So a couple of final thoughts before we move on
to a different game. Like again, I I'm just going
off of the fact that like Walker was a little
bit banged up all that that last month, but like
he is the best rebounder on Illinois State, and Kent
State is a very good rebounding team. Like they You
could get a handful of a second chance points here
for Kent State, especially if Illinois State doesn't have Walker
here for some reason. But as it pertains to just
the over in general, when Illinois State has played without
Chase Walker there, they really are like a different team
since he's such like an offensive hub for them. If
they don't have him, I feel like I feel like
it's a little bit baster of a game. Probably you know,
you're you're probably gonna you know. Another reason Illinois State
was disappointing this year, Rob Johnny Kinsinger just is not
the same player that he was last year. He took
a big step back, started to shoot the ball better
toward the end of the year, but still like this
guy was a thirty nine percent fre throw shooter for
the first two years of his career, thirty percent from
behind the arc this year, And so I think that's
part of the reason why Illinois State has not sort
of ever realized their potential. It's probably why they've burnt
money most of the year because they I don't from
from memory, I don't think they've been very good against
the number. They were consistently power rated one of the
top teams in this league and just never ever achieved that.
And I think it's still with at least with the
opening number of seven. Like the books are still very
they're really pricing Illinois State as like a top option,
and even if the even at full strength, I don't
know if they've been that because Kinsinger is shooting ten
percent lower from behind the arc than he was last
year and he's one of the sort of main offensive threats.
So Garth, I don't dislike the call of Kent State.
There you are so here as we're speaking, you're getting
some Illinois State buy back, which again that doesn't really
surprise me either. This is one I'll have my eye on, though.
I want to see if Ken State's gonna play everyone,
because remember we just saw Kent State over the weekend
in the in the MAC tournament. Got to make sure
that there's no one that's not gonna play. But Rob,
I'll go one final point. I'll let you close this
one down. Illinois State is one of those teams. They
they fit the mold of like we haven't played in
a really long time. They got knocked out in the
quarterfinal round of the first weekend, which means this will
be twelve days since they've played, and that I don't
think that that's necessarily a good thing.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't love that for a team that maybe had
to get had to basically reconvene to play in this tournament.
That's that's not the profile I typically like.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think we did hit on that particular
aspect of the handicap yesterday, Adams. Some of these teams
you're gonna find their conference tournaments two weeks ago, opening
week of conference tournament action, not the past weekend, which
the MAC does hold back. And they played the week
of the Big Boys, So Kent is the fresher team.
They've been on the floor more recently, which I always
think is an advantage. I don't like the excessive layoff. However,
to your point about Walker, twelve days off could help,
could certainly help an injury type situation. So you have
to kind of go through it all situationally. But as
a standard rule of thumb, I don't like teams that
have been off for let's say, any more than six days.
Is a long long time for a college basketball team
that's used to such a regimented season where you're used
to playing every at least third or fourth day.
Speaker 1: Just gives me flashbacks to last year when they were
literally pulling the Samford kids off the beach and we're like, yo,
you guys got a game Tuesday. That's a true story.
They were, they were all on spring break. They had
to like flat round them up. Hey we got to
go play George Mason on Tuesday, and predictably they got destroyed.
That was from last year's n I t So stuff
like that very important. We can we can do an
NCAA tournament game. I'm not gonna deny the request for
an NCAA tournament game if you, you know, Frank appreciate
the donation. And and then we'll go to Mad Max,
who's who's got a donation as well in one of
the n I t games.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: And then Rob will let you lock in a parlay lake.
So let's start here, uh, he says, Adam, Rob and
Steve Merrill. Shout out Steve, that was a fun show
on Sunday night doing the live bracket reveal. He says,
thank you for your ongoing advice. It was a great
day for me yesterday. Any hints with TCU and Ohio
State and Rob, I'm just gonna say what I've said
on a couple of shows previous. I love the TCU backcourt.
I've said this all year. I think that they are
on very underrated defensively when it comes to their on
ball pressure. If you can get through that, you can
probably beat TCU a little bit at the rim. But
TCU has done a really good job defending the likes
of like a Florida. You know, there's numerous sort of
instances in Big twelve play where their guards really disrupted
a better team. And now you look at Ohio State
and if you can sort of disrupt Bruce Thornton, You've
got a really good chance to beat Ohio State. So
I like the TCU Hartbrogs. I have not bet this yet,
but it's on my radar, so I'll just I'm gonna
leave it at that. I don't really have much else
to add. Talk to Frank about TCO Ohio State.
Speaker 2: Rub Yeah, good game. The line is indicative of where
the overall personnel on these two teams is concerned, disappointed,
somewhat adam on the Ohio State side, although the play
got a little bit better as the season went on.
Of the seventh Christopher Tilly, who transferred over from the
WCC to Ohio State this year, I thought he'd be
more impactful than he was overall this season, a little
bit better as the season went on. But what's more
than a little bit better as the season went on
is the performance of TCU nine to two straight up
down the stretch in a very very difficult conference, and
the ability to play multiple ways in TCU will beat
you sixty seven to sixty five, and then TCU can
win ninety two to eighty eight. It just doesn't matter.
They can score. I think an underrated player in this game,
and he missed a couple of games, or at least
a little bit of time was played through injury. Was
David Punch for TCU. We talk about the Guards a
ton because of their defensive tenacity. I know you first
brought that up a long time ago started the season,
and that's key in this matchup when you go up
against Thornton, when you go up against John Mobley. Devin
Royal's played really well for Ohio State, who's gotten better
down the stretch too. I think they're four and one
to close the year. But Ohio State is guard driven,
definitely guard driven from an offensive perspective, where I think
Jamie Dixon's team is one that's far more capable of
dispersing points, which I like in these tournaments where you
can have five guys, four guys in double figures, let's
say between eleven and eighteen or twelve and twenty one,
something like that, more options, more people to defend. Here,
You're absolutely right, you go get Thornton and Mobley and
Royal have been nice, complimentary players, But I don't know
that without Bruce Thornton putting up twenty plus that Ohio
State can win a game. Inside a tournament like this.
So I had a little bit of success Adam throughout
the season playing Ohio State overs because I would fade
their defense a little bit. In Big ten play worked
to an extent. I have a hard time seeing which
way this game is going to go. You know, last
night we watched Texas and NC State play a sixty
six to sixty four game or wherever. That was sixty
eight sixty six, very low scoring. I could see that
happening here in terms of being in the mid one thirties.
But I could also see this being in the low
one fifties, seventy seven to seventy four. Because both teams,
especially TCU, is capable of going both ways. I think
that Ohio State is more apt to want to play
the game higher scoring. The question is going to be
and Thornton's been around so long. I really don't know
why I should question his ability to handle pressure because
he's just been at Ohio State for so long and
done it at such a high level. I have a
bias to want to play TCU. I don't have a
real good feel on this total I have to tell you,
I think this game could be played one of two ways.
Probably a better in game bet in a pre flop
so to speak. Bet.
Speaker 1: You know, I think if this game was played maybe
five weeks ago, a month ago, five weeks ago, it
would have been a very easy bet on TCU for me.
But like you said, like Ohio State, Thornton has had
some complimentary help over the last like month. Ohio State's
kind of quietly been very very good. You know. They
they played their way from like maybe not making the
tournament all the way to an eight seed, right like,
that's that's ay. They've had a really impressive sort of
close to the season. So it's it would only be
TCU for me, TCU or pass. But I think I
maybe maybe need to give Ohio State a little bit
more respect than I'm giving them. It's that's what That's
what's putting me off here. That's why I haven't bet
this yet. I'm wondering if I'm maybe underestimating Ohio State
because I'm looking at the whole body of work and
not and not putting enough stock into how good they've
been down the stretch, because I think that would sort
of even and out a little bit. And again, if
Thornton's got help, you know, putting the ball in the basket,
Ohio State probably wins. So it's all about TCU and
their guards and their ability to pressure Ohio State on
the perimeter. But if they can't do that, Ohio State
might be in business. So it's gonna be an interesting game.
Not when I have met yet, but I do have
a lean toward TCU. Rob. Do you know what game
you want to go to for the parlay or do
you want to do the requested game first and then
go to your leg.
Speaker 2: It's up to you.
Speaker 1: Requested game is going to be dating Bradley.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well that won't be my parlay legs, So let
me just go ahead and give the parlay leg. Now,
which two opportunities same game? I think I'm going to
include the dog here because I like the Dog. I
won't exclude them, but I'm gonna play Sam Houston, New
Mexico over the number of one sixty four and a half.
Sam Houston I talked a lot down the stretch and
in their conference tournament, actually had a ticket on them
to win that CUSA tournament and they just quite couldn't
get past Kennesaw State and exited I think in a
semi final round but Sam Samus or ectually Sam Houston State.
I've said it once, I've said it twice. They've got
multiple guys that can get you buckets when necessary. It's
just an all out assault on offense from this team.
There is no resistance defensively, which brings in the mindset
of why don't you just play New Mexico in the pit?
Their team total over eighty eight and a half. It
seems like a team that can get to eighty nine
against Sam Houston State. And I wouldn't talk anybody off
of that. The only reason why I'm going full game
here is I don't want to discount Sam Houston's ability
to play offense. The job Eric Olin did here one year,
first year at New Mexico with really a conglomeration of
talent that had to be put together on the fly,
very very good. The one problem you might have with
New Mexico, Adam, is I feel like they thought they
could win the Mountain West this year. Yeah, and they didn't.
Is this the consolation prize to them? I don't think
it's a consolation prize to Sam Houston State. Very close
geographically here, I think Sam Houston State will take this
as more of a test can we beat these guys
in this venue? So I think you get full effort
out of them. But again, the pit is just a
place that even if your team comes in somewhat flat,
the electricity of that place probably gets you going. I
happen to think New Mexico is going to come to
play anyway. When you talked about this yesterday, I'll say
it one more time, and maybe we'll say it again
throughout the next couple of days. Is that with this
tournament now being played on the same weekend as the
NCAA Championship, it's a chance for four of two of
these teams. I guess the first one is in Hinkle,
the semifinals in Hinkle, but the championship in Gamebridge. There's
a chance if you get to the championship here to
get a ton of eyeballs on you, and I think
teams looking for somewhat of respect want to get there.
I think New Mexico is one of those teams. And again,
old in first year head coach, I really think trying
to lay something down here is a foundation for this team.
So I could see New Mexico playing hard. This game's
going to get over in my mind over one sixty
four and a half. Yesterday we had a lot of
nit unders. Generally that's not the case today. We may
have the overs come back. So give me Sam Houston
New Mexico State full game total over one sixty four
and a half. Because I want to include Sam Houston's offense.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna dispute any of that, and I'm gonna
move along because we've got two games that were requested.
We got about ten minutes to go, so we'll try
to hit both of these. We've got two legs of
the parlay locked in. Who knows, maybe if Rob and
I agree on one of these final two games, we'll
make it a three teamer. Saw someone in the chat
day and even though they're the higher seed, is not
the home team tonight. Of course, the ud arena being
used for or NCAA tournament games, so Dayton, despite being
the higher seed, is on the road at Bradley tonight,
and that the Mad Max says he's five and one
last six. Props to Mad Max. That's great, love to
hear it, he said. Bradley Forrest's turnovers, Dayton turns it
over seventeen point five percent of their possessions. Yeah, they've
definitely been turnover prone this year. It's it's part of
the reason why Dayton was not a real contender in
that league despite getting to the getting to their conference
championship game. Bradley's a great three point shooting team. But
here's the thing with Bradley, this was the team last
year that had a couple of guys opt out of
this tournament. Then they felt guilty and they played, and
then the one dude who was opting out because he
wanted to get ready to go play pro somewhere got hurt.
And so you have to want then. And this is
the same thing as George Mason rob that yesterday where
they kind of made a they won a few games, right.
I think Bradley made it to the Elite eight of
this tournament last year, ended up losing, I want to say,
to Chattanooga in the Elite eight to this tournament last year.
Coming into this season, I think they had aspirations for
the NCAA Tournament and now they're back in the NIT.
So Dayton always seems to take the NIT serious for
the most part. Like I'm going like Dayton was in
it last year. Now they lost in similar fashion. I
think they ended up having to go on the road
and lost in like the second round last year. But
I kind of think Anthony Grant's gonna play everyone, so
this one's tricky. But I leaned if Dayton shows up
with their full complement of players, I think they win
this game. But that's what I'll be trying to figure
out throughout the course of the day. Do you have
anything here for mad Max, Rob Dayton and Bradley?
Speaker 2: The only thing I worry about is dayton disappointment. They
played so well down this stretch. Happened like two different teams, honestly,
but they've now played ten consecutive games where their opponent
hasn't touched seventy, and it's more like an Anthony Grant
team Defense, defense, defense, ten consecutive games holding teams to
under seventy, and Bradley's not necessarily a prolific offense. They've
had games that have gone over the total, games that
were played high scoring against high scoring teams in their
conference Belmont, Murray State, etc. But man, if Dayton comes
to play here, if they're not thoroughly disappointed off of
losing that championship game, A couple of days ago to VCU,
then I would be playing Bradley. Team total under this
thing is seventy and a half, and nobody's hit that
number in ten straight games against Dayton, so they've obviously
slowed themselves down a little bit more toward Dayton tendencies,
or at least Dayton perception over the last decade, or
at least as long as Anthony Griant has been there,
and Bradley's not necessarily going to crank up the pace.
So I don't know. My million here would be definitely
Bradley team total under seventy and a half home or
not home. Dayton's been terrific on defense, and if they
clamped down, they can certainly squash this team and keep
them under seventy and a half.
Speaker 1: Bradley is another one of these teams that hasn't played
since the first weekend of conference tournament play. Their last
game was also against Northern Iowa on the seventh, So
Northern Iowa took out Illinois State on Friday, they took
out Bradley on Saturday, and so you're looking at an
eleven day layoff a team that kind of needed their
fan base to get on them a little bit to
take this tournament seriously last year, And I just have
to wonder, if you know, if they didn't want to
take it seriously last year, got sort of like gilted
into it by their fans calling them out for basically
opting out. I don't know, I wonder how badly Bradley
wants this one this year. But yeah, you make a
really good point Dayton. Whether Dayton wasn't at they weren't
at large, but like by Sunday, they had to feel
like they could. They were, They had to feel like
they could get to the NCAA tournament. They were a
what were they a three point underdog to a VCU
in the final, So.
Speaker 2: That said that the A ten might take three. If
they won, the A ten probably would have gotten three. VC,
you would have made it. Saint Louis was gonna make it.
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is a really interesting game. And of
course that's one where you got to make sure if
you're looking at the bracket, it's gonna look like Dayton
his home. They are not. They are on the road
in brat In in uh Peoria, Illinois tonight for that game.
So all right, let's let's finish off the show. Mansie
is back in the chat. Mansey says, greetings, fellas. Thoughts
on Colorado State, Saint Joe's. He likes Colorado State with
the elevation and Saint Jose top guards played, you know,
tend to play thirty plus minutes. So he's looking at
Colorado State tonight, Robin Fort Collins, Moby Arena. This is
the Degenerate Special, eleven PM Eastern Tip. How are you
seeing this one? Saint Joe Colorado State out in Fort
Collins tonight.
Speaker 2: Saint Joe's I think exceeded expectations. At remember back at
the beginning of the year where they were kind of
like a personnel mess, and somehow it became additioned by
subtraction with Saint Joe's. Like at the one point where
they were having personnel issues, it didn't look like Saint
Jose was going to have a really good season, but
it turned out to be a very good season. And
the question with Saint Jose, I think becomes are they
a product of their conference or did they really get
better under Steve Donahue, who's a pretty good head coach.
But they played well, I'm just counting off here. Seven
and one straight up down the stretch. The opposition again
not great, but it was. There was a win against
George Mason, and there are a pair of wins against
Davids And we saw Davidson last night played pretty well
in still Water. But I would really tend to side
with Colorado State here, far more difficult conference. I won't
do the pronunciation because I know the pronunciation here. You
have this one down Ali Farouche Manesher. However, you say
I know.
Speaker 1: Northern Iowa legend Rob Ali Faro March ask Kansas about him?
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, he hit a big shot. I just could
never get his name right. But I feel like he
brought Colorado State along real well too. Getting back to
seriousness here and Colorado State, I think can find holes
in the Saint Joe's defense in this game. He definitely
has Colorado State going slow, slower, slowest. That could bother
Saint Joe's. I tend to believe that Saint Joe's from
what we saw down the stretch when they got better,
would like to tune it up a little bit. But
I think altitude was brought up in the comment right there.
Altitude could be an issue for Saint Joe. You come
from Philly. You go up there, you don't really know
what it's like. I don't though that Saint Jose plays
a ton of non conference up in the uh high
high altitude of Colorado. So for me, I think it
would be Colorado State. Credit to Saint joseen what they did, Adam,
and I would love to say take points here, but
I think it's a tough situation, tough venue, and I
think Colorado State just comes from better stock where conference
is concerned.
Speaker 1: Listen, I again, it's all about, you know, confirming lineups
and stuff like that. I if Colorado State takes this
tournament seriously, I think they could be around for a while,
especially if they draw a couple of home games. Like
you know that, that's a building I've been to before,
Moby Arena. I've also been one time when it wasn't
like sold out, And even when that place is half full,
it's it's still a very good atmosphere. The way it's
built is like there's one side that goes way way up,
so like if they only have four thousand, it's still
it still feels very full because like the last couple
thousand seats, it's very weird. It's like they're all on
one side and they like shoot up the one side.
So that's a place where like four or five thousand.
It may it may only have like half attendance, but
it's still gonna feel like a like a solid atmosphere. Obviously,
something that doesn't matter how many people show up. Altitude
is still altitude, and Saint Joe's doesn't take doesn't make
this trip very often, you know, out to the out
to the Rocky Mountains. Ali for Rokmanesh you mentioned first
year head coach, But like a lot of people when
Nico Menven took the Minnesota job were like, oh, like,
Colorado State's gonna be fine because Rokmanesh was like the
mastermind behind a lot of what they were doing offensively.
And Colorado State's still been pretty solid offensively, aside from
that stretch where they had some injuries and they just
straight up could not buy a shot. There was like
a five or six game stretch in Mountain West play
where they couldn't make anything. But you go back to
earlier in the year and they were as efficient of
an offensive team as you could find through the first
couple of months of this season. So yeah, the opener
was five and a half, it's got bet up. If
it goes back to five and a half, I think
there might be enough value to take a stab with
Colorado State there. That's this feels like a game that
they probably find a way to win. All right, Rob,
let's let's you know what. Let's uh, we got all March.
We still have plenty of time to make a run
with the parlays, so let's keep it two team or
today since we went oh and two yesterday, we got
a walk before we can run here. Maybe we'll maybe
we'll run it back with an NCAA tournament three team
or tomorrow. Today's parlay two team parlay for me, Miami
Ohio plus seven. That's a client play for me. I
love them tonight. I think they're gonna win the game.
This is one time where I'm usually like that, you know,
just take the seven points. I think you could actually
sprinkle a little bit on the money line there. I
really like the RedHawks. And then Rob Bino's going with
Sam Houston State New Mexico out in the Pit in Albuquerque,
one of my favorite buildings I've ever been to. Rob.
That place is awesome. Over one sixty four and a half.
So that's your two teamer today. Miami, Ohio plus seven
Sam Houston, New Mexico over won sixty four and a half.
Check out our package double the CBB Firepower three days
and if you email in you can do the rest
of the season. Rob and I will be back to
talk more games in the morning. Have a great day, everybody,