WEBVTT 1 00:00:08.240 --> 00:00:12.720 You are listening to Redefining Energy. Your co hosts from 2 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:16.559 Berlin Gerard Reid and from London Laurent. 3 00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:22.160 Segalam today on Realdefriending Energy. We're going to talk about 4 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:23.079 the book. 5 00:00:23.359 --> 00:00:27.359 We sure are. The book is called Our Renewable Energy Future, 6 00:00:27.760 --> 00:00:31.320 the remarkable story of how renewable energy will become the 7 00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:32.679 basis for our lives. 8 00:00:33.240 --> 00:00:34.479 But first the word from our. 9 00:00:34.359 --> 00:00:38.960 Partner, Redefining Energy sponsored by a Mundi, the leading European 10 00:00:39.039 --> 00:00:42.719 asset manager, your trusted partner to accelerate the transition to 11 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:46.840 a low carbon future. Leading asset manager based on the 12 00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:51.520 IPE ranking. Investing involves risk, consult your financial advisor. 13 00:00:52.039 --> 00:00:54.880 And we are really really happy to have Doug Arndt 14 00:00:55.280 --> 00:00:58.039 from the National Renewable Labs in the United States on 15 00:00:58.920 --> 00:01:01.640 to talk about the future of our energy world. 16 00:01:02.079 --> 00:01:05.079 And let's just say that Dougarrant is one of the 17 00:01:05.120 --> 00:01:09.319 most respected Opini energy expert and he's been working for 18 00:01:09.560 --> 00:01:14.879 decades strategic thinking and he really has a three sixty 19 00:01:14.959 --> 00:01:18.680 view of all the technologies which are being developed right now. 20 00:01:19.319 --> 00:01:21.560 Larn me add something which I thought was a little 21 00:01:21.599 --> 00:01:23.840 bit funny, which was at the back of the book, 22 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:28.079 what Doug has done as he's published an article he 23 00:01:28.159 --> 00:01:31.439 wrote in nineteen seventy six, and it was the article 24 00:01:31.480 --> 00:01:35.000 that inspired and really to focus on renewables, and it 25 00:01:35.079 --> 00:01:41.480 was called solar energy. Can I be used effectively? Right? 26 00:01:42.400 --> 00:01:42.560 Yeah? 27 00:01:42.680 --> 00:01:44.159 And if you actually look at the base of what 28 00:01:44.200 --> 00:01:46.599 he's actually saying, is he saying, listen, solar is going 29 00:01:46.680 --> 00:01:49.280 to be the heart of our energy system going forward. 30 00:01:49.760 --> 00:01:53.680 Let's listen to the interview. Doug, Welcome to the show. 31 00:01:53.959 --> 00:01:54.799 Thanks for having me. 32 00:01:55.239 --> 00:01:57.519 Well, Doug, let me just jump right in. What we're 33 00:01:57.519 --> 00:01:58.760 going to do. Is we going to talk about the 34 00:01:58.840 --> 00:02:01.760 future renewables. But before we talk about the future renew 35 00:02:01.760 --> 00:02:04.519 of us, I'd really like you to talk to our 36 00:02:04.560 --> 00:02:08.400 listeners about the organization you work for, which is called ENREL. 37 00:02:08.960 --> 00:02:12.400 What ENRAL is, what they do, what the history is, 38 00:02:12.520 --> 00:02:14.080 and why ENRAL is important. 39 00:02:14.680 --> 00:02:18.400 I was a teenager when what was then ENREL, which 40 00:02:18.479 --> 00:02:21.680 was the Solar Energy Research Institute, was founded by President 41 00:02:21.719 --> 00:02:25.280 Carter in nineteen seventy six, so it's been around since then. 42 00:02:25.319 --> 00:02:29.960 It's been the only national research organization globally focused on 43 00:02:30.199 --> 00:02:34.800 the renewable mission space. But that mission space has changed 44 00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:38.639 dramatically since the nineteen seventies, when it frankly was a 45 00:02:38.680 --> 00:02:43.000 science set of experiments to today where it's mainstream markets. 46 00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:47.199 Enrel is part of the DOE National AB Complex. We're 47 00:02:47.280 --> 00:02:51.159 located in Colorado. It's about four thousand researchers, about a 48 00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:54.680 billion dollars a year, and we cover everything from renewable 49 00:02:54.840 --> 00:02:59.919 power to clean fuels, fuels and chemicals, carbon management, hydrogen 50 00:03:00.639 --> 00:03:06.759 of course, smart buildings, electric mobility, sustainable aviation, fuels, and 51 00:03:06.840 --> 00:03:11.240 maybe more importantly, integrated systems. We work in about forty 52 00:03:11.240 --> 00:03:15.520 countries around the world, but predominantly based in the United States. 53 00:03:16.080 --> 00:03:18.400 And Doug just following on on ed while they're talk 54 00:03:18.439 --> 00:03:20.919 about the impact that they've had. As a guy like 55 00:03:21.000 --> 00:03:25.240 me who's been financing solo wind, whatever do I say, so, 56 00:03:25.479 --> 00:03:27.240 Wash or you tell me why it is important. 57 00:03:28.000 --> 00:03:33.960 Enrail feels a really interesting space in the research, development, demonstration, deployment, 58 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:40.039 and market ecosystem. Our mission is to innovate solutions, and 59 00:03:40.120 --> 00:03:44.639 here I say not specifically just technologies, but solutions, and 60 00:03:44.759 --> 00:03:50.120 to partner with companies to take those solutions to commercial scale. 61 00:03:50.840 --> 00:03:53.479 And so you can look in the history of enrol 62 00:03:53.960 --> 00:03:58.680 a ton of history in the fundamentals of solar foldovoltaics, 63 00:03:59.199 --> 00:04:05.000 concentrating song or power, wind technologies, electric and hybrid mobility, 64 00:04:05.479 --> 00:04:08.199 et cetera. And that the work with now more than 65 00:04:08.240 --> 00:04:13.360 one thousand commercial partners is really the gotcha of how 66 00:04:13.520 --> 00:04:16.279 ENRAL operates in the marketplace. And there are probably many 67 00:04:16.279 --> 00:04:20.040 investments that you make that actually have a connection back 68 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:24.120 to NRAL science that is now buried in the commercial world. 69 00:04:24.879 --> 00:04:26.759 Kelly, and ask you talk a little bit about yourself 70 00:04:26.759 --> 00:04:28.279 and the reason I want to do this. We don't 71 00:04:28.279 --> 00:04:29.800 normally do this in the podcast, but the reason I 72 00:04:29.839 --> 00:04:31.399 want to do this in this case here is because 73 00:04:31.560 --> 00:04:34.399 we're going to talk about your latest book on the 74 00:04:34.439 --> 00:04:37.160 future renewables, and I just want to give the readers 75 00:04:37.199 --> 00:04:40.560 a sense of your knowledge, where you come from and 76 00:04:40.639 --> 00:04:43.639 why you decided to write a book about the future renewables. 77 00:04:43.959 --> 00:04:48.439 It's an interesting journey for me. I was a teenager 78 00:04:48.639 --> 00:04:52.160 in nineteen seventy six when they launched the Solar Energy 79 00:04:52.160 --> 00:04:55.519 Research Institute and I wrote a paper on the future 80 00:04:55.519 --> 00:04:58.240 of solar energy. I still have a copy. It's actually 81 00:04:58.279 --> 00:05:02.079 in the appendix of the book. It's cool, it's not 82 00:05:02.120 --> 00:05:05.199 so well written, but I was sixteen and I dedicated 83 00:05:05.240 --> 00:05:10.120 myself to a career in clean energy transition and energy access, 84 00:05:10.279 --> 00:05:13.360 energy development. Since that point in time, I went on 85 00:05:13.439 --> 00:05:16.000 did a technical degree, did a PhD, did an MBA, 86 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:18.800 and I've been at ENRAL for what I call a career. 87 00:05:19.360 --> 00:05:22.199 And what motivated me to write the book was that 88 00:05:22.240 --> 00:05:26.839 there are so many people excited about the energy transition 89 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:31.199 and the space and the opportunity who are new and young, 90 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:36.800 who don't have a concrete understanding of where it came 91 00:05:36.839 --> 00:05:39.879 from and the journey that has brought us to this 92 00:05:40.000 --> 00:05:45.399 point where solar is the technology of the decade and 93 00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:48.560 there are many others in that pipeline. And so for 94 00:05:48.639 --> 00:05:52.000 me it was a passion of trying to capture succinctly, 95 00:05:52.040 --> 00:05:54.800 because it's only a couple hundred pages long, what is 96 00:05:54.839 --> 00:05:57.879 that journey and maybe more importantly, what are the factors 97 00:05:57.920 --> 00:06:01.759 that are affecting the future of ignoble energy and what 98 00:06:01.839 --> 00:06:04.439 our energy ecosystem will look like going forward. 99 00:06:05.079 --> 00:06:08.800 Thank you, thank you. You are in tune with my 100 00:06:08.959 --> 00:06:13.279 big theory, my theory of the one new tech per decade. 101 00:06:13.720 --> 00:06:16.839 John knows that by heart, but I like to repeat 102 00:06:16.839 --> 00:06:20.839 it because that's my only theory. So the seventies is 103 00:06:20.959 --> 00:06:25.160 nuclear R. The eighties is c CGTS, the nineties is wind. 104 00:06:25.839 --> 00:06:30.720 The two thousand is solar. Tennis batteries takes one decade 105 00:06:31.279 --> 00:06:34.160 to develop, one decade to roll out, and then they dominate. 106 00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:36.959 And before you answered that, I think he's wrong. 107 00:06:37.000 --> 00:06:40.879 I think it's two decades, okay, and I think solars 108 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:41.680 only decade. 109 00:06:41.680 --> 00:06:43.639 That we're only going into second decade solar. 110 00:06:43.680 --> 00:06:48.000 Now I will reflect as well. So one, I think 111 00:06:48.040 --> 00:06:51.439 it's got to be faster than two decades to move 112 00:06:51.519 --> 00:06:55.040 through from idea to commercialization. That's one really important point. 113 00:06:55.399 --> 00:07:00.360 We need more innovation to commercialization faster. And secondly, maybe 114 00:07:00.360 --> 00:07:03.000 you've forgot natural gas in there in the fracking boom 115 00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:05.800 at some point in time in the two thousands twenty ten, 116 00:07:05.879 --> 00:07:09.839 but okay, we'll debate that later. More importantly, what I 117 00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:12.839 will also argue is that, and what I argue in 118 00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:17.279 the book is that the coming decades are about systems integration, 119 00:07:18.040 --> 00:07:22.720 and they're about integrated systems. And so now you see batteries, 120 00:07:22.759 --> 00:07:27.839 but maybe batteries are standalone, but most batteries are hybridized 121 00:07:27.959 --> 00:07:31.720 with solar or otherwise. And you're seeing even new nuclear 122 00:07:31.839 --> 00:07:37.680 come out hybridized with thermal storage for arbitraging the revenue 123 00:07:37.680 --> 00:07:41.920 streams depending on how you use that thermal energy from 124 00:07:41.959 --> 00:07:45.199 a nuclear plant. Great opportunities. I think to think about 125 00:07:45.240 --> 00:07:49.319 it as an investor, but also as a technology innovator. 126 00:07:50.160 --> 00:07:53.519 Good we can debate as far as I'm consoled till 127 00:07:53.600 --> 00:07:56.439 twenties because I forgot to talk about that. Great technology 128 00:07:56.639 --> 00:08:01.560 are interconnectors, That's the one. And that's something that in 129 00:08:01.600 --> 00:08:04.040 Europe we know because we've got you know, the valtic seat, 130 00:08:04.079 --> 00:08:06.360 the nos CIVI talrency, so you know, we know that. 131 00:08:06.720 --> 00:08:09.319 In the US it's lamb, you know, so you don't 132 00:08:09.319 --> 00:08:12.600 really know what is the subscencta connector. It's a beauty. 133 00:08:12.639 --> 00:08:16.120 But anyway, let's dive in into your books, because I 134 00:08:16.160 --> 00:08:18.399 think solar when the thick of it. But you know, 135 00:08:18.439 --> 00:08:21.639 there are other things which you have pinpointed, and I'll 136 00:08:21.639 --> 00:08:26.160 be curious to see your nuclear or carbon management, you know, 137 00:08:26.199 --> 00:08:29.319 Adan Joe Tummer, which one you don't want to pick first? 138 00:08:30.040 --> 00:08:32.240 Actually I want to stick with solar, but I want 139 00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:35.639 to go beyond technology because I think that's a really 140 00:08:35.679 --> 00:08:40.919 important story that people don't understand, is that many of 141 00:08:41.000 --> 00:08:44.440 us who live and eat and breathe and invest in 142 00:08:44.480 --> 00:08:48.919 the energy sector think about it as technology. Only solutions. 143 00:08:49.639 --> 00:08:53.879 The most important element to think through is how do 144 00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:58.879 those technologies get priced in a market are either responding 145 00:08:58.960 --> 00:09:03.080 to a policy in regulatory framework, and who's willing to 146 00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:06.759 pay for them, whether or not that's a company striving 147 00:09:06.840 --> 00:09:11.240 for twenty four to seven power or frankly individuals throughout 148 00:09:11.279 --> 00:09:15.320 Europe or elsewhere who want self determined power shall we 149 00:09:15.360 --> 00:09:18.240 call it I E. Rooftop solar, PV batteries, et cetera. 150 00:09:19.240 --> 00:09:22.240 All of those factors have come to play in a 151 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:27.600 very unique way in the last few years. And it's 152 00:09:27.639 --> 00:09:32.960 the combination of those factors which is bringing an incredibly 153 00:09:33.080 --> 00:09:37.759 unique opportunity of what is the next few decades maybe 154 00:09:37.759 --> 00:09:41.240 a solar decade, solar plus battery decade, et cetera, But 155 00:09:41.360 --> 00:09:45.480 it is the decades of renewables moving from what was 156 00:09:45.639 --> 00:09:50.879 called alternative energy to effectively mainstream energy to what I 157 00:09:50.919 --> 00:09:55.279 think will be renewable dominant energy systems. And this is 158 00:09:55.320 --> 00:09:59.399 a fundamental change in paradigm that we are in the 159 00:09:59.440 --> 00:10:00.639 middle of right now. 160 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:04.080 I love the phrase that you use, which is renewable dominance. 161 00:10:04.279 --> 00:10:06.960 So just I'd love you to build me a picture 162 00:10:07.320 --> 00:10:11.120 of how that renewable dominant power system looks. 163 00:10:10.919 --> 00:10:14.600 Like there's a lot of conversation about electrify as much 164 00:10:14.600 --> 00:10:19.879 as possible, principally because people understand that renewable power is 165 00:10:20.320 --> 00:10:23.679 the least cost set of options in nearly every country 166 00:10:23.879 --> 00:10:27.120 of the world, and of course you've got the overlay 167 00:10:27.120 --> 00:10:31.440 of decarbonization, so you've got to push for electrification of 168 00:10:31.840 --> 00:10:36.039 end uses, be that in the building, emobility, power to X. 169 00:10:36.799 --> 00:10:42.480 You then have the broader thinking of electricity derived chemicals 170 00:10:42.519 --> 00:10:47.559 and fuels being the dominant source of global trade of 171 00:10:47.639 --> 00:10:52.679 what we consider energy products. Think of green ammonia, green 172 00:10:52.759 --> 00:10:56.679 hydrogen being a fuel product now being shipped around the 173 00:10:56.679 --> 00:11:01.360 world in order to provide decarbonized power. Again, power as 174 00:11:01.440 --> 00:11:05.399 the backbone of a clean energy economy going forward. Even 175 00:11:05.399 --> 00:11:08.039 if it's a chemical being used let's say in Korea 176 00:11:08.159 --> 00:11:11.279 or Japan where they don't have huge amounts of renewables, 177 00:11:12.039 --> 00:11:16.919 that chemical has its history in an electrified dominant and 178 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:19.600 a renewable electrified dominant energy system. 179 00:11:19.879 --> 00:11:20.720 On a follow up in. 180 00:11:20.720 --> 00:11:22.559 It where I'm trying to actually come from, I'm coming 181 00:11:22.600 --> 00:11:25.960 from the economic side, because the reality is the more 182 00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:29.639 and more win solar we build, the more that at 183 00:11:29.679 --> 00:11:32.000 certain parts of the day we have too much power, 184 00:11:32.519 --> 00:11:37.399 which actually disincentivizes me to build that renewables. And so 185 00:11:37.720 --> 00:11:39.919 what your vision is is one hundred percent where we 186 00:11:39.960 --> 00:11:42.159 should go. What I'm trying to get my head around 187 00:11:42.240 --> 00:11:44.919 is how do you move from financing a solar project 188 00:11:45.440 --> 00:11:48.960 to financing that integrated solution that you're talking about. How 189 00:11:49.000 --> 00:11:50.360 do we do that or do you have any thoughts 190 00:11:50.360 --> 00:11:55.240 of that? The answer actually is a heterogeneous pathway, and 191 00:11:55.360 --> 00:11:58.600 let me explain that to you. A lot of power 192 00:11:58.639 --> 00:12:03.480 to X configurations, solutions, plants, et cetera, may be in 193 00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:06.440 fact dedicated I either going to have their own dedicated 194 00:12:06.480 --> 00:12:10.799 power systems, hybrid power systems, some combination of wind, solar, 195 00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:16.120 potentially geothermal, potentially nuclear, other low carbon technologies, and they're 196 00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:21.120 going to be predominantly dedicated to that electoralizer plus ongoing 197 00:12:21.480 --> 00:12:24.960 conversion technology, whether or not that's Sabatier to methanol or 198 00:12:25.039 --> 00:12:29.679 Haberbasche to tsu ammonia, et cetera. What your question presumed 199 00:12:30.039 --> 00:12:32.679 was that the whole system is interconnected and that you 200 00:12:32.759 --> 00:12:35.159 had to take a price, that you were not a 201 00:12:35.200 --> 00:12:38.279 price maker in the market. And I think that there is. 202 00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:42.159 Money to be made if one thinks much more creatively 203 00:12:42.759 --> 00:12:46.200 about what the configurations are, what your business proposition is, 204 00:12:46.240 --> 00:12:48.200 whether or not you play in the market or you 205 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:50.559 use that power yourself, if that makes sense to you. 206 00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:54.879 It's more complicated than current structures today. But then again, 207 00:12:55.279 --> 00:12:57.360 you're a financial whiz, so I think you're going to 208 00:12:57.360 --> 00:12:57.879 figure it out. 209 00:12:58.360 --> 00:12:59.120 I'm not being to wrong. 210 00:12:59.159 --> 00:12:59.960 How are we going to sort it out? 211 00:13:00.960 --> 00:13:01.240 The way? 212 00:13:01.240 --> 00:13:04.360 I see the technologies now, who have a wonderful toolkit, 213 00:13:04.720 --> 00:13:10.399 whether it's batteries, digital interconnections, whatever. There are incubans, there 214 00:13:10.440 --> 00:13:16.480 is inertia, There are people protecting their market share, regardless 215 00:13:16.759 --> 00:13:20.840 of the economics and trench interest. I do think that 216 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:25.960 what's slowing the energy transition are more the people than 217 00:13:26.000 --> 00:13:31.200 the technologies. Those people, you know, whatever you say you're 218 00:13:31.200 --> 00:13:32.879 going to put all the formula in front of them, 219 00:13:32.879 --> 00:13:36.120 they say, look, I'm paid to sell gas. That's my job. 220 00:13:36.559 --> 00:13:39.679 Regardless of whatever you can demonstrate from a scientific point 221 00:13:39.720 --> 00:13:41.559 of view, I'm just going to continue to sell gas. 222 00:13:41.559 --> 00:13:43.360 And by the way, that's the only thing I know. 223 00:13:43.559 --> 00:13:48.120 So you can have a perfect design system and then 224 00:13:48.440 --> 00:13:51.480 you will have the entrance reality that people are protecting 225 00:13:51.480 --> 00:13:53.720 their cake. Or is it just me babbling? 226 00:13:54.600 --> 00:13:57.639 You actually spot on. I lay out six factors in 227 00:13:57.679 --> 00:14:01.200 the book, and all of them are based upon people 228 00:14:01.600 --> 00:14:05.399 and knowledge. I call out specifically knowledge. But people are 229 00:14:05.759 --> 00:14:09.879 the core of social willingness and acceptance. They're the core 230 00:14:10.120 --> 00:14:15.840 of institutional willingness and acceptance. They're the core of change 231 00:14:15.879 --> 00:14:19.759 in policy and regulation. And you know, there's been a 232 00:14:19.799 --> 00:14:23.960 phrase for many decades that regulators are slower than the 233 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:30.159 utilities in making change, and it's that inhibition to change 234 00:14:30.360 --> 00:14:32.320 which is really going to slow us down. And so 235 00:14:32.440 --> 00:14:35.759 while and I think we're all enthusiastic for this energy 236 00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:40.639 transition to an electro and a clean electro renewable dominant future, 237 00:14:41.519 --> 00:14:44.919 I'm also skeptical that it's going to happen at the 238 00:14:44.960 --> 00:14:48.440 speed and the scale that is called for, certainly for 239 00:14:48.480 --> 00:14:50.840 the Paris Agreement. If you're going to limit at one 240 00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:54.039 point five, it's likely much more likely to get into 241 00:14:54.200 --> 00:14:58.360 an overshoot and then capture scenario going forward. That's a 242 00:14:58.360 --> 00:14:59.200 different conversation. 243 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:02.600 Can I then just follow up on that, because I 244 00:15:02.720 --> 00:15:05.600 have one concern, but the positive on the other side 245 00:15:05.840 --> 00:15:08.960 think that weighs my concern. So my concern is large 246 00:15:08.960 --> 00:15:12.360 scale renewables just building that whether that's going to happen 247 00:15:12.440 --> 00:15:16.279 in time. I doubt this, and also I doubt the economics, 248 00:15:16.279 --> 00:15:18.360 and there's a whole pile of issues there. But what 249 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:22.000 really excites me is behind the substation and behind the meter, 250 00:15:22.759 --> 00:15:25.919 because what you've definitely seen is the customers saying, I'm 251 00:15:25.960 --> 00:15:28.919 fed up with this price volatility. I want to have resilience, 252 00:15:29.039 --> 00:15:30.639 I want to have clean power. I'm going to do 253 00:15:30.639 --> 00:15:34.159 it myself, and it's cheap. That's the revolution that I see, 254 00:15:34.440 --> 00:15:38.240 and that lends itself into a lot of very interesting 255 00:15:38.360 --> 00:15:43.399 integration issues in and around digitalization, connecting everything together that 256 00:15:43.440 --> 00:15:46.279 pushes us forward very quickly. Would you share that view 257 00:15:46.440 --> 00:15:47.360 or how do you see that? 258 00:15:48.200 --> 00:15:48.440 Yeah? 259 00:15:48.679 --> 00:15:51.480 I hate to be one hundred percent in alignment with you, 260 00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:55.679 but it's absolutely fundamental to embrace what I call the 261 00:15:55.720 --> 00:16:00.759 heterogeneity of the power system. Power systems were designed for big, 262 00:16:00.879 --> 00:16:04.000 huge plants and one way powerflow all the way out 263 00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:07.000 to what they called meters, not even people or thinking 264 00:16:07.080 --> 00:16:11.360 of the end users. Today, you're seeing a plethora of 265 00:16:12.000 --> 00:16:19.519 digitization opportunities, self generation opportunities, desire for resiliency in places 266 00:16:19.559 --> 00:16:23.720 where there are lots of outages, and desire for control 267 00:16:23.799 --> 00:16:27.080 of or surety of pricing and so that's your point, 268 00:16:27.080 --> 00:16:30.080 which is, if I buy a solar system and a 269 00:16:30.120 --> 00:16:33.080 battery and maybe an EV charger, I know what my 270 00:16:33.200 --> 00:16:36.000 price is and how long it goes. Now I may 271 00:16:36.039 --> 00:16:38.679 have to pay depending if I'm still connected to the 272 00:16:38.720 --> 00:16:42.879 grid for I'll call it reliability services unless I've completely 273 00:16:42.919 --> 00:16:45.879 designed an off grid system. But I know the bulk 274 00:16:45.919 --> 00:16:48.679 of what my costs look like now for many years, 275 00:16:48.679 --> 00:16:53.440 decades in the future. That gives folks a sense of comfort, 276 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:57.720 which is back to Lawrence people point, which is it's 277 00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:00.440 a people decision. And in fact, even if you look 278 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:03.720 at further than that, go down that digitization pathway. I 279 00:17:03.720 --> 00:17:07.160 think just a little bit more fascinating set of conversations 280 00:17:07.160 --> 00:17:11.200 of what's happening with aggregators. These are folks that have 281 00:17:11.480 --> 00:17:17.799 digital control, visibility and control, are marrying sensing, AI, cloud 282 00:17:17.839 --> 00:17:24.720 computing and financial modeling to provide both better services behind 283 00:17:24.759 --> 00:17:28.000 the meter at the building level, be that either residential 284 00:17:28.160 --> 00:17:33.160 or commercial, and also services into the wholesale market. And 285 00:17:33.200 --> 00:17:36.480 they make money doing that and people get better service, 286 00:17:36.680 --> 00:17:39.000 more reliable service, and cheaper service. 287 00:17:39.799 --> 00:17:43.119 I'm going to be to kill joy as usual in Australia. 288 00:17:43.720 --> 00:17:45.519 I want to put some out on my roof. It's 289 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:48.440 going to cost me ten thousand dollars the same system 290 00:17:48.519 --> 00:17:54.279 in California thirty thousand dollars. What is the problem. It's 291 00:17:54.359 --> 00:17:59.279 the same technology. Now, I can't understand that for geopoliticular reason. 292 00:17:59.359 --> 00:18:03.359 Everything that out of China is China, China, China. We 293 00:18:03.440 --> 00:18:06.839 can't accept anything from China. We've done episode on China 294 00:18:07.079 --> 00:18:09.319 and our vision is a bit. Look, it's going to 295 00:18:09.400 --> 00:18:13.480 be we solve climations with China or we solve it 296 00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:15.480 ten years down the line, and it's going to cost 297 00:18:15.599 --> 00:18:17.640 us double Is it just me around ting. 298 00:18:17.559 --> 00:18:20.759 As you real it's not urranting. The US has had 299 00:18:20.759 --> 00:18:24.839 a three times to four times price differential from Europe 300 00:18:24.960 --> 00:18:30.799 or Australia for decades and it's persistent. Sadly, what's behind it? 301 00:18:30.799 --> 00:18:33.960 It's not technology costs. Frankly, it's back to your point 302 00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:38.799 on people. It's labor costs. Sometimes it's permitting and the 303 00:18:38.960 --> 00:18:43.319 process itself. Sometimes it's cost of money and margins. But 304 00:18:43.640 --> 00:18:47.839 those pieces, the soft costs add up considerably in the 305 00:18:47.920 --> 00:18:50.599 United States, and it's a real price differential and a 306 00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:54.039 barrier for low and middle income communities, which is why 307 00:18:54.079 --> 00:18:58.400 you're seeing alternatives being pushed out like community solar, where 308 00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:02.279 people can buy a portion of a bigger unit that 309 00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:07.079 has economy of scale, or buy solar products from their 310 00:19:07.400 --> 00:19:11.039 serving utility. There are lots of options on that, but 311 00:19:11.160 --> 00:19:14.480 that fundamental piece of an installed solar system on your 312 00:19:14.519 --> 00:19:17.799 roof still sits at that three x price differential. 313 00:19:18.720 --> 00:19:21.359 You're going to see what we've seen yop, which is 314 00:19:21.400 --> 00:19:25.519 something crazy. It's called balcony, So there's no installation. People 315 00:19:25.559 --> 00:19:28.680 buy in the supermarket to just put them on the balcony, 316 00:19:28.839 --> 00:19:30.720 plug it and that's it. 317 00:19:31.000 --> 00:19:31.519 Done. 318 00:19:31.799 --> 00:19:34.240 Now, it's not perfect, but it works pretty well. 319 00:19:34.519 --> 00:19:37.359 John, don't give you an idea that the fully installed 320 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:38.440 costs fifty cents a lot. 321 00:19:38.599 --> 00:19:39.359 It's mind boggling. 322 00:19:39.480 --> 00:19:40.200 You just plug it in. 323 00:19:40.359 --> 00:19:41.880 That's it, and you can actually put it in your 324 00:19:41.880 --> 00:19:44.000 garden and just put it up into the external socket. 325 00:19:44.359 --> 00:19:46.440 And if you do it fifty cents, like if you're 326 00:19:46.480 --> 00:19:49.480 on Californe, you've got a payback period of like a year. 327 00:19:50.279 --> 00:19:51.640 Incredible opportunity. 328 00:19:51.799 --> 00:19:52.000 You know. 329 00:19:52.079 --> 00:19:54.160 I was talking to a colleague at the Department of 330 00:19:54.279 --> 00:19:57.400 Energy yesterday and he remembered that they had put out 331 00:19:57.400 --> 00:20:02.000 a solicitation for plug and play solar modules ten years ago. 332 00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:06.039 And it was ahead of the curve. The technologies weren't there, 333 00:20:06.119 --> 00:20:07.640 the visibility wasn't there, et. 334 00:20:07.640 --> 00:20:08.279 Cetera, et cetera. 335 00:20:08.680 --> 00:20:11.839 Today, I think you're absolutely right that the US in 336 00:20:11.920 --> 00:20:17.200 particular is ripe for disruptive innovation like that, along with 337 00:20:17.240 --> 00:20:20.319 all the challenges that will come with it. So cost 338 00:20:20.720 --> 00:20:25.839 of your poor system operator who's got no visibility or controllability, 339 00:20:26.319 --> 00:20:30.160 of your bounty fuller and the grid is overloaded, there 340 00:20:30.200 --> 00:20:32.119 are going to be some interesting issues coming up. 341 00:20:32.519 --> 00:20:35.079 Yeah, that's why when I asked the question earlier on 342 00:20:35.119 --> 00:20:36.720 about the future the power system, not I'm trying to 343 00:20:36.720 --> 00:20:38.960 get my head around, is how does it look like 344 00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:42.640 with these two way power flows and grid operators not 345 00:20:42.680 --> 00:20:45.039 being able to see everything that's going on and on? 346 00:20:45.079 --> 00:20:47.839 And I think that's the big technical challenge? Or am 347 00:20:47.880 --> 00:20:48.559 I seeing that wrong? 348 00:20:49.119 --> 00:20:52.000 You're not seeing the challenge wrong. But let me describe 349 00:20:52.000 --> 00:20:56.759 to you a potential solution. Colleagues at ENROL about five 350 00:20:56.839 --> 00:21:01.680 years ago saw this future coming and we invested a 351 00:21:01.720 --> 00:21:07.079 whole bunch of resources into thinking about self healing, self controlling, 352 00:21:07.640 --> 00:21:13.119 distributed heterogeneous grids. So what we call autonomous energy systems. 353 00:21:13.160 --> 00:21:17.079 Think of the autonomous driving car, equivalent for autonomous energy 354 00:21:17.119 --> 00:21:23.960 systems cool so okay, self aware, self coordinating or coordinating 355 00:21:24.000 --> 00:21:28.279 in micro hierarchical structures where you could get visibility to 356 00:21:28.759 --> 00:21:32.559 your balcony system and your neighbors by the way, coordinate 357 00:21:32.599 --> 00:21:36.599 a little micro cell in your community, potentially aggregate or 358 00:21:36.720 --> 00:21:40.799 control that power up. Or your balcony is getting more 359 00:21:40.839 --> 00:21:43.480 sun and your neighbor needs ev charging and they don't 360 00:21:43.480 --> 00:21:46.440 have a battery, and so you're doing that arbitrage even 361 00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:53.079 within the community. These possibilities actually offer an incredible solutions suite. 362 00:21:53.960 --> 00:21:54.920 Can we get there? 363 00:21:55.279 --> 00:21:55.519 Yes? 364 00:21:56.119 --> 00:21:59.799 Will it be this decade? Likely? Not so, Laurent. Back 365 00:21:59.799 --> 00:22:04.400 to your point, that's probably a twenty thirties decadal piece, 366 00:22:04.440 --> 00:22:08.920 which is to see software enabled controlled solutions roll out 367 00:22:08.960 --> 00:22:09.599 at scale. 368 00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:13.440 In the US, you are blessed by gods. You've got 369 00:22:13.559 --> 00:22:17.279 coll for five hundred years. You get oil number one producer. 370 00:22:17.519 --> 00:22:21.799 You've had gas gas at two dollars and BTU it's 371 00:22:22.039 --> 00:22:25.079 crazy cheap. It's power at ten dollars O MAGA what hour. 372 00:22:25.599 --> 00:22:28.279 It's a luxury that pretty much the rest of the 373 00:22:28.319 --> 00:22:32.440 world doesn't have. I can understand that all that fossil 374 00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:37.319 fuel ecosystem wants to stay alive, and they're living pretty 375 00:22:37.359 --> 00:22:41.920 well around that. And the utilities they like their little monopolies. 376 00:22:42.440 --> 00:22:44.960 If you look in Europe the shock word with you know, 377 00:22:45.000 --> 00:22:47.799 putting invasion of Ukraine and the price going like the 378 00:22:47.799 --> 00:22:51.119 equivalent of three hundred four hundred barrel. We didn't have 379 00:22:51.160 --> 00:22:54.359 any choice. We had to do those things. I give 380 00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:58.000 you a simple example of great technologies invented in the US, 381 00:22:58.119 --> 00:23:01.680 the prot in Europe, great hand and seeing technologies, everything 382 00:23:01.720 --> 00:23:06.640 about dynamic like creating topographic reconductor in Europe. With all 383 00:23:06.640 --> 00:23:10.279 of them in the US. Now people are fine. So 384 00:23:10.640 --> 00:23:13.319 I go back. It's to people, it's not the tech. 385 00:23:13.799 --> 00:23:16.720 The tech we have them. Sometimes, you know, I want 386 00:23:16.759 --> 00:23:19.960 to bang heads together and say are you already serious 387 00:23:19.960 --> 00:23:24.640 about the energy transition? But again that's just me talking. 388 00:23:24.920 --> 00:23:27.279 I'm just a talking head here. Yeah. 389 00:23:27.319 --> 00:23:29.640 Interesting part of the US is that it's it's a 390 00:23:29.759 --> 00:23:33.880 very heterogeneous energy system. It's very competitive. There are more 391 00:23:33.920 --> 00:23:38.200 than a thousand equivalent what you call utilities. They're vertically 392 00:23:38.200 --> 00:23:43.559 integrated investor on utilities. There's munis and other public power utilities. 393 00:23:43.640 --> 00:23:48.200 There are rural co ops. Some markets are restructured or deregulated. 394 00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:52.519 Other markets remain regulated. Now, the interesting part is that 395 00:23:52.720 --> 00:23:57.240 with federal legislation that has been passed, there's an incredible 396 00:23:57.319 --> 00:24:01.240 number of incentives for investing, not only in manufacturing, but 397 00:24:01.680 --> 00:24:07.000 deployment of grid technologies, new generation hydrogen. 398 00:24:06.519 --> 00:24:06.960 Et cetera. 399 00:24:07.759 --> 00:24:12.000 But more importantly, because it's a democracy and it's a 400 00:24:12.119 --> 00:24:18.000 federal system, the states actually control a lot of oversight 401 00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:20.759