Speaker 2: Ross and Ralph.
Speaker 1: Obviously the big game Kansas State and Iowa State number
twenty two against number seventeen aka Pharmageddon. A little different
this time around, though, as the game takes place over
in Dublin, Ireland, noon Eastern kickoff on ESPN. Looking at
the odds, Kansas State currently a three point favorite, total
up to fifty and a half circup already at fifty one. Ralph,
I'm gonna start by going to you with our very
first question. Let's I want to talk about trends. You
are a resident trend experts. By this time the game
kicks off on Saturday, everyone is likely to be aware
that Matt Campbell and Iowa State are four and one
straight up in five and oh eightts the last five years,
versus Chris Climbing in Kansas State. My question to you,
with all the roster turnover we're experiencing in the current
climate of college football, does a trend like that matter less.
Speaker 2: Than it did, say, five to ten years ago.
Speaker 3: The trends people, you know, I use a lot of trends, Brian.
I'll talk a lot of trends, and I'll talk about
this and trends in this game. But I just have
to start this season off by saying this. Trends are
probably fifteen to twenty percent of me breaking down and
handicapping a game, and when you look at one team
trend versus the others, I really don't pay attention to them.
With the exception of this, I'm going to go back
to the Snyder days of Kansas State. When you have
an in state rival and you have you want to
continually kick their butt and make them your little sister.
You know, those are the type of rivalries that I
don't mind if you have a dominant team and they
continue to cover. But when some teams are better and
some teams are worse and they're playing each other every year,
I really don't take those coaching trends into consideration.
Speaker 2: All right, So it's not as big of a deal.
Speaker 3: Obviously.
Speaker 1: You look at what happened last year in this game
as well. Kansas State could have won if it wasn't
for some miscuse. You go back to that game, they
lose twenty nine to twenty two, and Kansas State had
it was done in by a couple turnovers. They had
a field goal block safety failed on two fourth and shorts.
Ross let me bring you in next here. We're going
fast here, and this game being in Dublin, Ireland, obviously
a huge part of the handicap and conventional wisdom is Okay,
these teams are traveling, it's an unfamiliar setting, so they're
going to start slow. But I looked up, Okay, the
last three season openers over in Ireland colleg this will
be a fourth year in row college football opens across
the Atlantic. The first half scoring has seen at least
twenty eight points in those three games.
Speaker 2: So is there anything you're looking at?
Speaker 1: I mean, I know that's probably gonna be a popular
question here about the first half. There's been a lot
of talk being that this is a conference matchup. Do
you think that maybe they're going to start slower or
is there something to those fast starts we've seen in
previous years.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't put a lot of stock in that.
You know, one of those games was Notre Dame and Navy,
and Notre Dame put up all the points you're talking about,
over twenty eight in the first half. So I will
tell you this, one trend Ralph I think will hold
up is the over and under of seventy percent on
what whether it's over or under seventy percent of the
crowd being intoxicated, So I would say it's over seventy
percent is the best bet, Ralph, I know you like
those type of things.
Speaker 3: So are you saying Kelly Stewart is going to be
at the game drinking? Is that what you're telling us?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well she's a Britary, you know what I mean.
But in terms of that, Brian, it's a great question,
and no, I don't look at that. I think every
individual matchup on a neutral field is its own separate entity.
And just because the game's being played in Ireland, you
had a logic, your logic of you think they would
start slow, you know, with the time difference, which could
be anywhere from six to nine hours depending on the
teams that are playing in the game. I think I
would put more emphasis on the fact that you mentioned
that loss by Kansas State in the regular season finale
against Iowa State, and you know, revenge factor in these
types of situations, first game out of the box on
a neutral field, the continuity of the coaching staffs. But
I like Kansas State here. I just think that I
think that with the experience with the revenge factor, in
the factor a small favorite in this game. If I
can get one fifty or less on the money line,
which is highly improbable at this point, that's the route
I would go. But I wouldn't hesitate to lay the
three points here with an experienced Kansas State team that
brings back fourteen starters, also bringing in fourteen transfers out
of the portal. I love Chris Cleman. He's done a
terrific job in his first six years at Kansas State
forty eight and twenty eight straight up, nine and four
last year. Matt Campbell, by the way, three and six
in Big Twelve openers since he arrived on campus in Ames, Iowa.
So I am gonna go with I like Kansas State here.
I have a lean toward Kansas State in this opening
game in Dublin, Iron.
Speaker 1: Ralph, I'll get your take on that in just a second.
I just want to follow up with a couple other
things here. On the Iowa State side, Quarterback rock Wellbecks
is back, but without his top two receivers from last season. Guys,
both of them trying to make and NFL roster, ironically,
both with the Texans, and it's worth mentioning this just
isn't any two receivers that they lost. The Cycles were
the only team in the country besides Ohio State that
had two one thousand yard receivers last year. So it's
gonna be really interesting to see if a revamped receiver
room guys could take advantage of what is a retooled
k State secondary. That is my one area of concern
with Kansas State. I see in the comments section people
are talking about Avery Johnson maybe rushing yards over he
is the key to the that offensive success guys with
his feet through a school record or was accounted for
a school record twenty five touchdowns last year. Ten interceptions, though,
we have to cut that down. They have to cut
that down to truvers. He's fully healthy though, being that
it's the first game of the season, is quarterback Avery Johnson?
So Ralph this game here Kansas State, Iowa State. Obviously
it's to what everyone's going to be most interested in?
Side total?
Speaker 2: Is there? What attracts what's peaked your interest here the most?
Speaker 3: Well, you look at two experienced quarterbacks returning as you mentioned,
you know, but the unit that jumps out to me
the most, guys is the O line for Iowa State.
Iowa to the state returns all five starters, and all
five starters started at least six games, and in their
career fifty six sixty they have almost ninety career games started,
so that to me is a big advantage early in
the year. You look at the Kansas State D line,
they do return all three of the four D lines.
They have a great linebacker in Romaini probably the deep
best defensive player on the field, maybe John Tess Williams,
the cornerback from Iowa State. Those are by far the
two best defensive players. But again it is the O
line which has me leaning with Iowa State. It's not
going to be a play of mine. But I do
want to mention too, I like the under. Now I
am going against a little bit what you said, Brian
about those international games getting off to a quick start.
But let's remember this, Iowa State is an under team
under you, under their head coach. You look at an
Iowa State's been a dog or a small favorite. They've
been a dog or a small favorite ninety times and
they are thirty five point six percent to the over.
That is sixty four percent to the under. So anytime
Ioiowa State, I sort of leaned to the under first.
It doesn't mean I'm going to bet that. But just
like I also talked about playing a conference game in
game one, you're familiar with these teams, you know their patterns.
Even if they have a new coach, we are still
familiar with some of the players. So I went back
to twoenty and twenty one. In game one, if there's
a conference game, the underdog is fourteen six and one
against the spread, that is seventy percent, and the over
under is five and sixteen. That is seventy three percent.
Excuse me, seventy six percent to the under. So I'm
not going to base a play on those things, but
I like the logic of having a conference dog that
is used to being a dog and plays well in
that role, with the best offensive line here against two
teams that are very familiar with each other.
Speaker 1: All right, that's Kansas State, Iowa State there, and yes,
our own Kelly Stewart will be in the stadium.
Speaker 2: Please on X follow at Kelly in Vegas.
Speaker 1: I'm sure she will be tweeting pictures throughout the contest.
I was in Dublin a few years ago, guys, and yes,
it is indeed a very very good, easy place to
have a good time. I would say, all right, what
do you say, Let's talk about a different game here.
Obviously there's more than just Kansas State, Iowa State. There's
a break in the action in the afternoon a couple
of there's a a f UNLV's taken out Idaho State
at four thirty. But let's skip to the FCSFCS matchups
in the evening and stay in the big twelve. Kansas
they're going to take on Fresno State, Ralph. I know
because I followed you on wager Talk Today earlier this
week that you have a free play on that game.
Looking at the total. But let me throw it to
Ross first. Here, is there anything on the side you're
looking at? Everyone I'm talking to all week says BP.
We've got Kansas power rated north of two touchdowns on
this game, but I don't know.
Speaker 2: So talk about the game in general.
Speaker 1: And a follow up question I've got for you can
address this right away is how much do power ratings
matter in week zero Week one?
Speaker 2: My guess is a little bit less relative to the
rest of the season.
Speaker 4: I'm glad you etched.
Speaker 2: Thank you Power ratings.
Speaker 4: Power ratings don't mean a hell of a lot to
me early on, because they're projections, you know, that's my opinion. Now,
if you have your own power ratings and you've been
successful in creating those, that's another story. But generally speaking,
power ratings early in the year can sometimes be deceiving
and there's not a lot to go on. So again
it's all projection based. I mean in terms of a
side here, again, I don't like bet and shocks all
the time. But again I'm gonna turn to the chalk here.
In Kansas, they're the more experienced team. And you look
at Fresno they've gone to four straight bowl games, but
they're going through a coaching change and no longer they're
Jeff Tedford because of health reasons. Coach Enz takes over
over at Fresno State and a big transformation. Ten new
assistant coaches, twenty one new players brought in the transfer portal,
all mid year players, meaning not freshmen, but players that
have played elsewhere and opted to go to Fresno State.
So the continuity they may have an experience factor, but
the continuity of a new coaching staff and new players
is very concerning to me, and a season opener against
a team with more continuity, with a established coaching staff
that's been there for a while. And you know, I
really like Lance Lighthold, Brian. I think he's a very
underrated head coach. He turned the program around at the
University of Buffalo. They went five and seven last year,
but look, they started one in five and they lost
some heartbreakers. They finished the year four and two in
their last six, and they pulled off three outright upsets
as underdogs against some pretty good competition, and those opponents
were Iowa State. Also, it escapes BYU is another one.
But anyway, three upset losses help me out if you
know that third team, Brian.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll let the people know.
Speaker 1: If you were a client of mine down the stretch
last season, we cash Kansas five straight weeks. They were
a team we had written about it extensively. They were
a victim. You mentioned losing some heartbreakers early in the season.
Ross they were on the wrong end of a lot
of close game variants that BYU game if you remember
that was crazy because BYU correct me if I'm wrong
someone in the chat. They were still undefeated I believe
at the time, and Kansas beat them, so yeah, say
yes in provo, that was a wild finish if memory
serves be correct, Ralph, I know you liked the total
in this game. These are two offenses that like to
play snow slow pardon me, as Kansas they like to
usually use all the play clock, a lot of pre
snat motion. Fresno Ross mentioned the coaching change, They're going
to move a little slower as well. And there's not
a lot returning on either of these offenses in the
respective receiver room. So I think I have an idea
where you might be going with this total.
Speaker 3: Yeah, allor the defenses. Let me just say this, I
do like the under, but you know, I am well
aware that you know. Fresno State new coach, new coordinators.
They lost eight of their top ten tacklers, you know,
but Kansas lost nine of their top eleven. So both
defenses are in the same boat. Fresno State's going to
run a lot. You want to talk about a coach
that likes to run. Here's something when you guys head
to the bar tomorrow, ask them, Hey, guys, there's four
FBS games tomorrow, which one pairs a pair of national
championship head coaches. Well, we know Lance Leopold at Wisconsin
Whitewater I think has six Division III playoffs. Well, matt
Ens at North Dakota State, he won two FCS national championships,
So we have a coach that knows how to win.
I think he was sixty and eleven in his seasons there.
He left spent one year at the USC linebacking coach
and brought a couple USC guys with them here. Matt
Enz will run the ball. He will run the ball often,
and they will be very slow paced. You know, they
do bring in an experienced quarterback EJ. Warner, son of
son of the Hall of Famer Kurt Thank you. You know,
at Temple he cost me a couple of bets a
couple of years ago. He really matured last year at Rice.
You know, it was night and day what he did
at Rice relative to Temple. It is tough playing for
a third straight team in three years. But again he
has twenty one games of starting experience, you know, and
I do like them. You know, Kansas's O line three
new starters. Again, but Fresno State is very inexperienced. But
Kansas is a team to me that doesn't doesn't run
up the score. You look at their last four games
as a double digit favorite, not only are they zero
to four against the spread, they have failed to cover
those games by a total of forty points. So they're
failing to cover those games is a double digit by
ten points per game. And when you look at game
number one season openers, when you have a favorite of
seven or more, those teams are only forty five point
two percent the last three years. Again not a wow number,
but clearly something you have to think about because if
you have an FBS team on deck and you're a
big favorite in home one, that clearly changes the dynamic
as well. And if you look at teams in the
season opener that are a favorite by seven or more
with a total of fifty five or lower, a lower
total laying over a touchdown, those teams are only forty
two point three percent against the spread. Now those lean
towards Presno State. I will say this, Mike Kansas power
rating numbers have Kansas favored by fifteen and a half.
But I completely agree with Ross. Up until three or
four years ago, I used to completely trust my power
ratings week one. Now with the transfer portal, I don't
even look at them. So basically Week four until we
start playing conference games. So I do them. I have him.
I will continued updating weekly, but again I put very
very little stock into them the first month of the season.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, keep those comments coming, and see one
there right on your screen from Roger Long. I think
we would all agree that it is a different era
of Colt now with a.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I wanted to interject a couple more points to
Rolf's point about playing slow Fresno State in a spring
scrimmage this year, twenty five straight running plays in a row.
So that tells me coach Enz wants to play a
physical brand of football and control both interior lines. But
on the offensive side of the ball. That speaks volumes
to me. I'm not saying they're going to run twenty
five times in a row in this game, but it's
certainly worth noting. Also, keep in mind, folks, this will
be Kansas first game in their newly renovated stadium, in
all Memorial Stadium, So you know, you always got to
look at the emotional standpoint too, So something to consider
one handicap in the game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, great point. I was gonna bring that up to
about the stadium ross that may have played a role
in them being a disappointment last year. Kansas, by the way,
the third team they upset down the stretch last year.
I cannot believe we forgot that it was Colorado. This
is a shame that we would forget Dion Sanders of
all the media coverage he got in Boulder last season. Ralph,
you mentioned the great trend about Kansas as a double
digit favorite. Well, those of you who start feeling a
little frisky, perhaps on Saturday evening and want to bet
Fresdo State on the money line, I got one for
you here that you may want to buy or be
aware about buy unloading on Fresno State money line. Oh
and thirty straight up are the Bulldogs the last thirty
times they have been an underdog of twelve or more.
So there you go. They typically don't win when they
are an underdog of this size, but it seems like
somebody likes them.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 4: One more point, Brian, one more point. Jalen Daniels, their quarterback,
who was hurt from the majority of last season, returns.
He is deemed to be fully healthy. Is he head
off season knee surgery. If he could stay healthy, Kansas
is a much better team with him at quarterback.
Speaker 2: Shout out to Jeffrey, by the way in our comments section,
I am not ignoring you. Jeffrey, by the way, I
did see your.
Speaker 1: Right there about when you wanted under you send VP
to the game. Yes, by the way, I'll get just
because I feel so bad that you thought I was
ignoring your comment. I'll be letting you know Wednesday. This Wednesday,
I'll be a progressive field taking in the Guardians and
the Oriols. So you guys all know what to do
when I go to a day game. Bet the under.
All right, but that's baseball. We're talking college football here
today on the blitz. Let's move to Hawaii and Stanford.
I don't know if you guys remember this. Two years ago,
Hawaii took a ton of money. They were playing Stanford
the season open and things didn't go well for Hawaii.
Now that was in Palo Altel. This one is on
the island Ross. I did see you at a free
play on the side of this game. Everyone's bet in
Hawaii again, Stanford, it's not they They had what I
believe we like to call a tumultuous off season with
the firing of the head coach in the spring, Andrew
Luck has taken over the program. Frank Reich is now
an interim head coach. Just basically I think doing his
old buddy Andrew Luck a favor here. Hawaii's taking a
lot of money. Do we follow the money here out
on the island?
Speaker 4: You know, early on in the process here, I don't
get too caught up on the money going both ways.
It does tell me something when a Power for conference
school like Stanford is playing a maybe a mediocre Mountain
West Conference team like Hawaii, mediocre at best, and in
the money's going towards the Mountain West Conference team. So again,
it's usually when you see public money going in a
game like this, you look at the fact that the
Power four conference teams a small underdog and they think
they're getting a steal by taking them. But that's not
been the case here. Having said all that, again, Hawaii
five and seven a season ago. Three of their seven
losses came by three points or fewer. Experienced team coming back.
And here's the thing with Hawaii. They didn't bring anybody
in of significance on the transfer portal, and they didn't
lose anybody of significance on the transfer portal, fourteen returning starters. Again,
a head coach that's been there, he's going into his
fourth year now with continuity at the coaching staff and
also continuity at a roster. And hear me use the
word continuity is very important to me in college football
and early season matchups. And then you look at the
other side of the coin. Stanford just has been decimated
by the transfer portal. They lost two quarterbacks, they lost
twenty players to the transfer portal. And you know, this
is a team, a program I should say, three and
nine the last four seasons, identical three and nine records,
just ten and thirty five against FBS opponents. And you
know what strikes me in terms of the state of
the program is you just mentioned it, Brian. It's awful
unusual to see somebody with an interim tag as a
head coach going in to game one, and that's the
case with Frank Reich. And you know, it's how much
confidence could I place in a program right now that's
in that state with an interim head coach. Now, Frank
Reich's approven head coach right had some success at Indianapolis,
had some success as an offensive coordinator in the NFL.
But it just speaks to me the condition of the
program at Stanford in a little more stability going on
right now at Hawaii. And I don't care what the
money says right now. Sometimes the public wins, Brian, and
I think this will be one of those cases. I
like Hawaiian the money line here. You're not gonna get
me to late two two and a half. And if
I'm not mistaken, Hawaii as we speak is let me
see what they are on the money line here at Brian,
real quickly. I believe they were minus one thirty the
last I looked, but right now, okay, so I still
will take them on the money line. I'll always look
to use the money line, Brian, anything on a favorite
that's minus two and a half or less.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: Well, we've got a question here from the aforementioned Jeffrey.
You mentioned that you liked K State as well in
the earlier game ross a K State Hawaii money line parlay.
Would that be a solid pick in your opinion?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would have to say so based on my
opinions on both games.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: But here's the thing with me, Brian. You guys talked
about this off are you'll never get me to recommend
a party. I don't care. It's look, it's tough enough
to win one game, you know, when when you're asking
to win two games, And yeah, rightfully. So to answer
his question, it would make perfect logic, based on my
opinions on who I like on the sides, to say
that's a solid party. I don't know you're gonna get
long odds obviously with Kansas State, so but I'm not
an advocate of Parley's but in this particular instance, to
answer the gentleman's question, yes, it would make sense.
Speaker 1: Ralph any thoughts on that right there. On money also
like to stay away from.
Speaker 3: There's an occasions where I do I use it when
it's closer to like an NFL teaser type lines. When
I'm looking at those, I'm not gonna lay. You know,
lay the money line a double digit, And I think
you know, when you bet at parlay, you're already especially
when you're betting favorites, you're already losing value, right because
if you bet two games you win them both, you're
winning four units. You bet two games a party on
a parlay, you're winning two point four units. So right there,
they're taking away the value. Now, there are times when
I do a couple underdogs, and you know we moneyline
parlay those, but that's sort of one to win eight
to one, more fun bets than they are your actual wagers.
So I agree. I'm never gonna say never, you know,
but I don't use many in college because you know
your line, that line of two and a half is
based on what book makers think. It's much different than
going into November when you have an NFL team that's
a four point favorite, that you have an entire body
of work, you know that is the legitimate number. So
I am more scared betting money lines early because you're
just basing a money line on what Vegas thinks week
one without having seen them. So I certainly wouldn't do
it week one because there's so much more randomness.
Speaker 4: Yeah, incorrected, Brian, that Kansas State is just minus one
fifty five minus one sixty. But I still stand by
my reasoning why I would stay away from there. Ralph,
You're absolutely correct. I mean, you go one and one,
you lose the parley, you go one on one, you're
losing just a little bit of juice. So on the
straight side.
Speaker 3: So and you know, people say there's only value on
a dog. There are plenty of times when you can
lay minus three hundred as a favorite if you believe
the team is minus four hundred. There's nothing there's nothing
square about laying three to one, especially things like UFC
and tennis, where you're you're finding a lot more value.
So don't fall in the trap that you can only
find value on money lines betting the dogs. If you
are doing your due diligence and you're into the season
and they passed your eye test and you believe in
numbers should be much higher, it's one hundred percent okay
to bet the money line on those favorites in that role.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I see it.
Speaker 4: I was gonna give you his dog take the points, right, Ralph,
I mean yeah.
Speaker 3: On those money lines, right, they're gonna pay you for
they're giving you back three. You bet you better on
the line you're gonna be laying seven and a half
or taking seven and a half. So again, the juice
the juice, and the money line gets to be so
inflated that you really lose the value on the dogs
on the higher line games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I see that question of the comment right about
Frank Reich, Ross mentioned his tenure at the Colts.
Speaker 3: Guys.
Speaker 2: I thought, at the end of his tenure with the Colts,
it looked like the game had passed. Frank bye, Like Frank,
I don't mean it.
Speaker 1: The spirits man again, he's doing a solid for his
friend Andrew Luckier Stanford. I just I think this is
that's another issue with Stanton. I don't think it will
be very good. It's a lane duck head coach. Guys,
he was running I thought again, towards the end of
that tenure in Indianapolis, what was an antiquated offense by
modern football standards, and the game had passed.
Speaker 2: By titan CT.
Speaker 1: I saw you in the cop section saying I don't
think the tree is drunk quite yet. That is probably true,
being that it is only Thursday, But that is a
long flight. Perhaps the Stanford Tree there if a steam
mascot could be channeling, is it or wave vaults in
that light across the Pacific Ocean there? And yes, there
was an issue many years ago that I have joked
about before here on wadger Dux YouTube channel at the
Stanford Tree having a habit of being absolutely hammered during
the game.
Speaker 3: Right, and I want to add one thing to that.
Don't be so quick to think Stanford has to make
a long trip to Hawaii. That trip to Hawaii is
less than flying to Miami, Florida now in the ACC,
so they're used to those long flights. Plus Hawaii, you
don't have that rest of getting a week flying home,
having the prep fly back out. They probably have been there,
done that, the relaxed. They're under no pressure. So don't
let the travel affect you at all for this game.
This game won.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what something Stanford should be worried about,
though not necessarily maybe the travel. Ralph, I think makes
an excellent point that with you know the ACC, you know,
I'm Stanford's on the Pacific host, the effact the're in the
ACC is a little laughable. Whatever, that's the world we're living.
So they're used to the long trips now. But what
they do need to worry about is this receiver room. Guys,
do you know how many returning receptions they have from
last year's team? One one reception back. That's not good
for this first give not a lot of experience outlide
there for Stanford. If you're looking for an alternate, I'm
gonna throw this out to the chat here if you
don't want to play Hawaii money a lot anymore. Stanford
team total under is worth a look as well. I
think this Cardinal team is really really gonna struggle offensively
early season. I know Hawaii is not a defensive stalwart obviously.
You know they're known for offense to run and shoot.
But I think Stanford's gonna struggle to score points in
this one. I don't know if anyone has any thoughts
on that, or we can just move to another game
where I think there's gonna be a lot of points.
Speaker 2: Quite frankly, I.
Speaker 3: Just want to bring up one thing, and Ross mentioned that,
you know, being in Hawaii, they didn't lose transfers, they
didn't gain transfers, so they sort of sad packed. When
I look at their defense, they're returning starters from last
year that started thirteen games. Two starters started thirteen games.
On the d line. You have a nickelback and a
linebacker that combined for twenty three starts, and your DB's
they started eighteen games and Vertal Edwards was injured last year.
He was an eleven game starter in twenty twenty three.
If I have a player who was started every game
and then he missed an entire year for injury. I
actually count him as a returning starter. So when you
have dbs, all four dbs started for the team last
year except Edwards started the year before, and they all
are very experienced. To me, I think to Waii defense
is probably the gonna be the surprise unit on this field.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, and that's a seven thirty start. By the way, guys,
this is not a late night Generate special. This is
not so you can't wait around until midnight here on
the East Coast to play. Why no, it's seven thirty
Eastern on CBS. There is a game reference that I
think there will be plenty of points. However, in well,
I don't think Stanford's offense is very good. A game
where I think there's gonna be plenty of points, guys,
is this Western Kentucky Sam Houston State situation. I believe
this total at one point got as low as fifty nine,
but boy, has over money shown this week numbers back
up to sixty one, sixty one and a half depending
on your book. What have these two defenses lost relative
to last year? Well, let me tell you. Western Kentucky
lost their top twelve tacklers from last season. Not to
be outdone, Sam Houston State lost their top sixteen.
Speaker 2: Tacklers from last season.
Speaker 1: Every year we always try to guess who's gonna be
the most improved defense in the country. Well, I'm gonna
just go on the record right now, I would say
I think sam Houston State gonna be a contention for
the least improved defense in the country. They are going
to give up a ton of points. Gang Phil Longo
is the new head coach there. He was a terrible
fit as the offensive coordinator in Wisconsin. No one in
Madison wanted to run an air raid, but Longo here
at sam Houston should get a chance to implement his
offensive system. Western Kentucky also runs an air raid. Guy,
so it's air raid versus air raid. The Hilltoppers bringing
the OC and quarterback from Abilene Christian who put up
big numbers at the FCS level. The quarterback Maverick mckiv
a great quarterback name, by the way. So I don't
know if you have anything on this game to me, guys,
it's over or pass as we go to Conference USA.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to pass on this one, guys too
much inexperienced on both sides of the ball for both teams.
Phil Longo, first year head coach, And you know there's
no value to me even with the over. I mean, yeah,
it's all projection and being an air raid offense and
not a lot of returning defensive players on both sides
of the ball. But it still doesn't mean that the
offenses are going to be very good. So we'll see.
Speaker 2: It's a good point.
Speaker 3: Roth.
Speaker 1: Obviously it is all based up jections and Ralph, I
guess I'll throw it to you now in taking the over,
I guess the only question we know these defenses both
can be bad.
Speaker 2: But week zero, are the.
Speaker 1: Offenses going to be up to snuff so to speak
to take advantage of those bad defenses?
Speaker 3: Well, again, that's the reason you know you got a
week one. Is this worth a play or not? And
for me, it's not just because they come back so inexperienced.
You know, they are bringing back a quarterback in Hunter
Watson that started twelve games last year is Sam Houston.
But you know their ten game I think they won
ten games last year. It is the one of the
most fake ten win teams we've had in college football.
They went six to zero on close games, which means
they win every close game. They were plus twelve turnovers,
which in a medium a medium ranked team, it's almost
impossible for them to have double digit turnovers and back
to back years unless you're one of the elite defenses.
That normally doesn't happen. But long Ago is going to
go to the air raid. You know, before Wisconsin, I
agree with you. Why Wisconsin, Ohio Longo, I have no idea.
But prior to that, he was the OC at North
Carolina for a couple of years and Old miss for
a couple of years. And that's the type of pace
and that you're gonna see. He's still gonna want to
run the ball a lot, and they will, you know mcivory,
as you said for Western Kentucky, we know they're going
to press the pace. He has thirty starts over three
years at Abilene Christian. So let's see. They brought in
some other quarterback from an FCS team, what five or
six years ago who ended up going to the New
England Patriots as a pretty good draft pick. So we'll
see if they continue to make that work. To me,
it would be it would be over or nothing for me.
But I did come up with this interesting tidbit. When
you look at a team on the road in game one,
they're playing an FBS team, and next week, in Week two,
they have a conference home game. So we know, unless
you're an elite Big ten or SC team, these early
games don't mean much. Your goal is to win your conference.
If you're a MAC team, a Sun Belt team, a
CEBUSA team, your entire goal is to win the conference.
So those teams that on the road to start the
season playing an FBS team with a home conference game
on deck only nine and twenty two against the spread
and only three and twelve twenty percent against the spread
since twenty seventeen. And to me, that makes total sense.
Let's get to win. We're not gonna worry about pushing
the score up. We're gonna get some young guys experience,
and let's get ready to start our conference record at
one to zero seven days from now.
Speaker 1: Yes, Steve, Steve Duke in the comment section makes an
excellent point. This is bearcat with a K at Sam Houston.
Speaker 2: I don't know. I guess they want to be different.
Speaker 1: But all right, I mentioned at the top that these
are our two top college football handicappers from last year.
Speaker 2: It was in the top five as well. Not to
be outdone. Obviously, we've been breaking down these games for
you here the last half hour.
Speaker 1: We want these guys to have a little bit of
time to tell you what they've got cooking this weekend
over at wager talk dot com, Ross throw to you
first college football kicking off.
Speaker 2: Obviously less than forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: We've still got Major League Baseball, the NFL preseason, a
lot going on. Talk to people about what you've got
going on for this weekend over at your page.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think I'll have a lot going on
this weekend in college football. Look, folks, just because there's
four games on the board doesn't mean you have to
bet them. And I know that sounds counterproductive to what
we do for a bus for a living, but the
bottom line is, I'm out to make money. And I
was number one in college football last year and units
earned number one over the last two seasons in units
earned combined in college football. And I probably aren't gonna
do anything when it comes to college football this weekend.
But my major league spoiled by the way, folks. Number
one in Major League Baseball this season twenty twenty five season.
So having a nice run of eighty four and fifty
two since early May, up over eighty nine units in
Major League Baseball. So you're gonna see me go full
bore in week one. I don't think I'll be doing anything,
if much at all in week zero.
Speaker 2: Brian, Okay, but hey, when the man gets involved.
Speaker 1: You want to pay attention again at wt dot buzz
slash rb Ralph.
Speaker 2: How about you this weekend? What do you got going
on over at wage dot com.
Speaker 3: Well, again, I'm going to pass. In college football. You know,
I've learned with the transfer portal, it's always better to
leave a winner off than put a loser on. Remember,
if you're forcing plays and you split, you're losing ten percent.
Use that's how you burn your profit throughout the year.
So nothing for me, But I do have a I
like the preseason card. I do have a preseason NFL
play for tonight, and we have a great little wager
talk you buy September, get the rest of August for free,
so you can get week three preseason. You can get
Week one college football. And remember with Labor Day on
the first, this is the first September in seven years
where we've had four NFL weeks, So buying September is
a full four weeks of college football, a full four
weeks of NFL football. You're getting my nerfee plays and
August for free. WT buzzbackslash rm. Oh. By the way,
my college football and NFL plays rated four percent and
five percent seventeen and two ninety percent. Wow.
Speaker 1: All right, I am firing this weekend in college football
and believe it or not, unprecedented move. I will have
a five percent play on Saturday, So check that out
at WT dot buzz slash b P. Yes, I was
in the top five leader more as well last season
in college football. You go back to November twenty twenty three,
guys up over fifty nine units in college football. So
it's been back to back great seasons on the college
grid iron. And we get off the great starts as well.
Ralph reference that tremendous special where you could be covered
all the way through September. Don't forget. The sooner you buy,
the more picks you get, because when you buy a
thirty l access, we're going to extend you all the
way through the end of September. So that's basically getting
August free of charge. And last September, guys, I hit
sixty combined sixty six percent in the NFL in college,
so really excited to get things off on the right
foot this season. You also get not just with we've
heard these guys talk about Major League Baseball NFL.
Speaker 2: I do soccer as well.
Speaker 1: I know not everybody loves soccer, but I love soccer
because I'm number one in soccer here at wage Talk
since April twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: Four, up nearly sixty units of profit on the pitch.
Speaker 1: Almost as obscure as soccer for some would be UNLV
Idaho State. We want to leave no stone unturned here
on the blitz. Guys, this is an FBSFCS matchup. I
would look to the over in this game for those
of you who are interested in betting this game. Idaho
State and is the FCS team. The defense is bad.
I think UNLV is gonna be able to run all
day on them. Now, UNLV has an interesting situation at quarterback.
They bring in two transfers. First of all, I hate
the Dan mullen hire. I'm just gonna come out and
say that right now. Guys who get hired from the booth.
I don't love it. We've seen the Trent dilferd. I
can't believe he's still stealing a paycheck at UAB. Not
saying Dan Mullen is gonna be as bad as him,
but I think it's gonna be to I love UNLV
under eight and a half wins. They're gonna win this
game against Idaho State. But the two transfers they have
in at quarterback could not be more different. Alex Orgy
who could not throw the ball last year at Michigan
at all, I mean at all. I mean they just
gave up. I mean it was like the nineteen forties
Army offense with him in there. And then you have Calandria,
who transfers in from Virginia.
Speaker 2: All he does is throw deep passes.
Speaker 1: So the Idaho State defense, man, it's gonna be when
UNLV's gonna be switching these quarterbacks back and forth. The
Idaho State defense is gonna be on its heels. For
those who think, well, all right, for this game to
get over, it's got to be all UNLV.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get you and l these teams total over.
Speaker 1: Idah host They could score guys this is an FCS
offense that can score, So I would look at the
over that would be over or pass if you are
interested in that game. Again, we want to leave no
stone unturned here on the blitz, so with such a
small slate, I thought i'd throw that in there.
Speaker 2: Yes, Roth, I do.
Speaker 3: Want to say this, you know, live in Vegas, actually
been gone for a couple months down in Florida. But
even though you may not like the Dan hut Mullin higher,
it has clearly helped their transfer portal this year because
people want to come in and play for an SEC coach,
much different than Trent Dilferd playing for a small time
coach who was a quarterback. You're playing for an SEC coach,
and their transfer portal is indicative of that. They had
many people that should have never gone to UNLV to
play for this year. If he can metch that talent,
we'll see. But again, he did get their recruiting numbers
up very high. We'll see if he could turn it
into and coaching job as well. Yeah, a lot of
P four transfers that they did. Yet that's a very
good point, Ralph.
Speaker 4: The other thing I would mention with Dan Mullen I
agree with you, Brian is I don't like when you
hire a coach at the FCS level who's been fired
twice at the FBS level, so it doesn't always translate
to success just because he's coached at in the SEC,
actually at two schools. So yeah, and look, I think
to Ralph's point the nil money, there's no excuse while
why a town like Las Vegas can't establish some really
good nil money for UNLV, especially off the success of
which they saw last year or so. It'll be interesting
to see what transpires and how well that transfer class
really is at UNLV. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The other thing to watch with Bullen is he angling
for a bigger job. That's something to look at because
I mean, here's the guy who coached the SEC.
Speaker 2: He's at UNLV.
Speaker 1: Is is his agent already like all right, let's have
one or two good years here and then go back
to a power for conference.
Speaker 3: Look the job, because Odem showed that you can do that.
At UNLV, you can't be AHA enough success. So I
think it is to him it's not quite reaching the
bottom of the barrel. You know, he reached the middle
of the barrel. Let's say if he bounces up or down.
I will say this, I think the UNLV program as
a whole is very disappointed they were invited to the
Pac twelve. I thought they all thought they were going
to be invited, and then they went a different direction.
The last team with Texas State, I don't even know
if that's final yet, but I know that was pretty
much what was to be said and done. But I
don't think that'll carry over here. But if they get
off to a bad start early in the season, those
are the type of things that can really wear on
a team and have them fade down the stretch. You know,
if you're playing poorly.
Speaker 1: All Right, Dan Mullen makes the move from the booth
back to the sidelines. However, I make the promise to
you that I will be here every Thursday live. I
am not going anywhere here with the Blitz Wager Talks
new college football show, We're gonna be taking your questions
breaking down all the big games will be back next week,
a much larger slate obviously in.
Speaker 2: Week one than in Week zero.
Speaker 1: Boy do we have some big games too, like Ohio
State and Texas, LSU and Clemson. The Breakdown Ordre Dame
in Miami on Sunday. I would like to thank both
Ross Benjamin and Ralph Michaels for joining me here on
this very first show.
Speaker 2: Brian one question in Power next week yours sorry.
Speaker 3: Next week we're breaking down every ranked versus rank game
right plus answering some questions. So if you guys want
the big games cover, the Blitz is the place to
do it.
Speaker 1: Absolutely no stone unturned like I said earlier, So for Ross,
Ralph on Brian Power. Until next time, let's cash some
tickets