Speaker 1: Week sixteen. It is the CFL betting blueprint. Andrew and
Bobby with you, hoping to guide you guys in the
right direction for this week. And you know, Bobby, we've
been talking about how the opening numbers get out there.
Tuesday is kind of that wild practice report day and
then there's not a lot until the game days. Well,
there's a reason we go live and record this here
on Tuesdays on X and post it around Wednesday Thursday
on wager Talk, and it's because those reports come out
on Tuesday. So unfortunately, some of the stuff we were
able to get down on even a few hours ago
no longer available. We still want to give information to
the people and some bets based on those lines. But
what are you hearing right now before we jump in.
Speaker 2: Well, it's pretty pretty NonStop here, Like Ottawa's got a
practice going on and they seem to be the only
place that doesn't have any reports coming out except for
Farharan Lalgi's got a guy there, I guess. But yeah,
it's been a pretty wild day. We'll get into it,
and there's I'm already on both sides of one game already,
which is I think a new record for being Tuesday
afternoon and are already been locked in on both sides.
So yeah, just the last few weeks have been pretty wild.
Every year they'll talk about these backup quarterbacks and pretend
like it's never happened before, but this actually does seem
to be pretty unique this year in the CFL, with
all these backups and these starters that just never seemed
to be coming back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked about it last week. I mean, look,
you and I got it done with Montreal. Chris Traveler
seemed to be dead to us. We'll find out if
we go back on Winnipeg this week if not. But yeah,
last week was weird because it was like it was
evident that a lot of the underdogs had the lesser
quality qbs, but you were getting a handful of points
and Montreal at least got their second QB back and
you and I both cash what plus eight ticket. That
was pretty much outright from start to finish. So that
was always notice. But this week, yeah, looking at practice reports,
we're seeing the information get out there already. And you know,
we'll start with the first game that we're going to
look at here. You know, I saw minus won twenty
five number Bobby eyes. That's what I saw here on Montreal.
This was on the money line, is what I saw earlier.
So this is what's funny. The opening number on the
Odds logic page is going to tell you minus five
and a half. FanDuel had three and a half. It
can't be the opening number, guys, because I sent out
minus three and a half to clients this afternoon, and
before it was three and a half, it was what
Bobby one and a half or two and a half,
and then slowly and surely it grew and.
Speaker 2: Yeah, some sights had two for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then so now the settling numbers seems to
be like look at look at the FanDuel one, like,
you know, two and a half, three and a half.
Some of those are behind potentially. But the moral of
the story here, guys, is that it's now a touchdown
and we know why because it's looking like it won't
even be a number one or number two string for Toronto.
And then you got the health of Montreal just getting
better and better every week. You know, It's funny, Bubby,
we said, you know, Montreal, they've got the talent, they
have the receivers. You know, I had Davis Alexander locked
in for an mop bet obviously not played nearly enough games.
But and then we're worried about MBT. You know, this
team looked real good last week. We don't want to
feel too good about ourselves for cash and ticket on
them last week. But I jumped in at minus three
and a half. I believe you got money. Line. What
I'm gonna say for people watching now, because we're looking
at a screen that says minus seven, I would probably
look towards the under here. You know, I think Montreal
still wants to establish the run. I think Montreal last
week still kept it pretty simple despite how many points
they put up. And if Toronto's quarterback situation is as
bad as it seems. In most leagues, you're not supposed
to overreact to quarterback situations. In the C it's been
made pretty clear this year that you should overreact. Like
I don't know how many write ups I've done convincing
my backers to go with Chris Strebler with me this
year at least two or three and it hasn't gone
very well. You know, So maybe under fifty would be
a good totals bet, but it's hard for us on
this show. Right now to give out an opinion on
this game when you and I already have like practically,
you know, we could go for a middle, but you know,
if people haven't gotten a good number already, it's hard
to really advise, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I kind of well, I just put out
like I took the argos on the other side here,
you're talking about these backup quarterbacks like NBT was one
of them. He was one of these guys that we
thought was decent and he has been a complete disaster
up until this last weekend, and just being not awful
is a huge difference for backup quarterbacks in this league.
Saskatchewan depletely imploded against him, as they usually do when
everybody's high on them. Obviously, we're both in Nova Scotia
right now, so we have to do the traditional toe
to sow that Saskatchewan's always going to fall on their
face whenever they're rated that high. But yeah, it's a
weird matchup now. But we got MBT again because Davis
Alexander looks like a season is almost in question because
he wasn't taken out of that game for some reason.
Are go starting JEREDEGI I've seen him play in person,
it's not pretty. It's even worse when he's playing against
Tyree Adams, which I saw in Ottawa twenty twenty three.
But yeah, like they're all the value on Montreal's gone
by now and this is pretty wild move. Yeah, like
five point move in like an hour and a half.
But now there's sevens And honestly, I think there's actually
I don't really want to treat it as a hedge.
I think there actually is some value there Daggie, Like unbelievably,
he's not one of the worst like third string quarterbacks.
He played okay in that game that he came into
last week. So if it's going to be seven anything higher,
like you have to go to the argos, you have to
back jard Deggie and hope that NBT puts up the
kind of performance he's been doing most of this season,
which hasn't been great.
Speaker 1: And I'm always talking about teams being in certain roles. Well,
this is certainly a role reversal. Right, You're going from
them getting seven and a half eight to now laying
that exact number on the other side of it. So
we're talking about a fifteen to sixteen point move from
one week to the next right, a little bit of
a difference from what we're trying to ask a team
to do. I don't know about you, but last week
I was just hoping that they covered the point spread.
I wasn't thinking they were going to win the game
out right necessarily, and that's what we got out of them.
So all right, BC and Calgary here? What else is
there to say about BC? Besides you just bet their
team total every single week because they're putting up points,
but their defense is certainly giving the points up. This
one seems about right five and a half opener five
and a half most places besides FanDuel, I'm guessing that
has four and a half for some reason. But your
take on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of agree with that FanDuel number. Like you,
even even though BC you won last week, you have
downgrade though, Like they were playing the Red Blacks, they're
making dust and crumb look look decent. Like this defense
is so bad and it's been a story the whole year,
like they're playing prevent defense, choking games away, and that
now they're making dustin crumbs and James Morgan's look like
decent CFL quarterbacks And when they face any other team.
You know that's not true. So like I kind of
think this line is where it, Like I hope it
doesn't go much higher because I don't I don't really
want to be backing BC when you have Vernon Adams
in a nut or one of his revenge games. He's
got revenge games all over this league. But you know,
I like, I don't really want to be betting against
this Calgary defense, which is still performing really well, and
then this Calgary offense that like, if Dust and Crumb
can put up twenty thirty points against the Lions, what
can va? What can va put up? Like it's got
to be done right. So, uh, I like where this
lins is. So I'm glad I don't have to be
back in BC. If he gets any higher, I'm just
gonna have to suck it up and support the support
the Lions.
Speaker 1: You know a lot of times when like there's streaks
like this, it feels like it's like, I if I
haven't been on it, what's that saying? Uh, if I
didn't go to the dance with you don't expect me
to go home or something? I can't remember what that
what's that expression? Do you know if you didn't anyway,
I forget it, have no idea. I can't remember I
needed your help there with that one. But if anyway,
the whole point is, if I didn't get on the
streak with BC with the over already, and I haven't
been betting every week, I'm a little bit hesitant to
jump on it now. But I'm trying to find reasons
not to here. Like that's the thing. I mean, maybe
it's maybe a Calgary team total over or you know
this fifty four fifty four and a half number. Like sure,
Calgary's defense has been okay, and besides, like the rare
blips they have that have had this season, which there
haven't really been a lot of them. You know, they've
been involved in some games with some scoring as well.
You know what, what do we take out of that
that game last week for the BC Lions? Do we
do we do we find a way to be impressed
by it? Do we do we care that they did that?
Or to what you just said, Bobby, do we look
at it and say this, Hey, if this team is
going to surrender that many points to a lesser opponent,
what is a more skilled opponent going to do? That's
the thing that kind of makes me like I'll probably
end up looking up to see what the end up
consensus number is on the Calgary team total. That might
end up being my move because this team, as much
as they're putting out points on the board every week, BC,
it's a dangerous game they're playing every week. Right, it's
a it's a dangerous game they're playing. It's not playoff
type football by any means, And it's not championship level
football because who cares how many points you're scoring if
you're giving up so many points as well?
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, And they're they're they're signing like TJ Lee,
Like these are these are jokes you're making? Like TJ.
Lee isn't walking through that door, well he is. Like
they're so desperate now they're they're signing old legends to
come back. It's not as bad as it was for
Saskatchewan last week, but but they got to figure something out.
Like the offense isn't the problem, right, So it'll be
interesting to see how they can go up against this
Calgary defense. But like, even even though Calgary's two of
their best receivers are still out probably for the rest
of the year, like they still got plenty of weapons
and and honestly, you don't need you don't need many
weapons against as we just saw with the Ottawa the
last two weeks. They were supposed to be by weeks
for the Lions, and they they bungled it pretty nicely.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's tough to see. But we'll see what
happens moving forward with BC, because well, some might say
they've actually been impressing, but some might say, hey, who
cares because they're just having poor defense, So it doesn't
really matter that much. Two more games to get to.
There was one thing with wager talk stuff that I
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this one. I thought we were going to be on
different sides, Bobby. The more I read into it, the
more I'm like h I always said, my rule is,
don't go on Ottawa if it's Drew Brown, but take
a look at him. Maybe. If it is Drew Brown,
you know, you gotta be one sick creature to want
to lose with Winnipeg one more time that I thought
about being that guy again, Can you convince me not to?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely? So. They paraded Zach Kleoso today and this
is classic, like Mike O'shay kind of garbage that he'll
play at cooy all day. And you have to wait
for the for the injury report to come out in
an hour and say that Claro still has a head injury. Right,
he's sticking with Streveler. He's loyal to his guys, which
is great in some cases. But honestly, like even the
Bomber fans are growing tired of him. Right, you got
a guy on the bench in Wilson that like you've
had him for three years. You refuse to put him
in in the Great Cup. You put in Streveler with
like a broken hat or not Streveler put in in
Clara's with a broken hand because you thought that that
was your better chance of winning. So no real faith
shown in the guy. But like, go and let the
guy fail, right, Like you're playing the Red Blacks. It's
a kind of a meaningless game. There's still a good
chance to sneak in the third seed in the West.
There's still a good chance of a crossover. So I
don't know what they're doing in Winnipeg. The post game
show was there definitely more entertaining now that they're actually mad,
They're not just patting themselves on the back over and over.
It becomes pretty obnoxious. But yeah, like, nothing to like,
nothing to like for the Bombers so far. MLG reports
that Drew Brown is taking first team reps I haven't
seen anybody actually report it from practice, but like he's
got his guys all around, right, So I just gave
out Ottawa at a money line. I think it's moved
to two and a half now, maybe a little bit
of value in that, but anything like I think this
is honestly, if it's Drew Brown versus Chris Treveler, it's
going to be like a three and a half for Ottawa.
So worst case it's Dustin Crumb and you got some
sort of fifty to fifty bet on the money line.
But yeah, back in Ottawa, and again this is Ottawa.
It's only a half unit. They're not a serious team.
They don't deserve a serious bet, and they actually So
this is what I thought we were going to be
talking about this week, was this spot. We talked about
the spot that Saskatchewan was in going into the buy.
Speaker 1: The Auto. I gave you credit. I gave okay, nice,
are me and Bobby are gonna be on Winnipeg this week?
And then I saw your tweet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's it's three and three and sixteen teams
going into the bye have have gone this this year
against the spread, and Ottawa is going into the buy
the Also, the other interesting thing there is that two
of those three wins were the Riders who basically like
imploded last last week and and proved the formula right.
So uh yeah, despite all of this, I'm going up
against the three and sixteen trends. This trend is not
my friend. I guess this is what they say on
wager talk. But there's just too much. There's too much
piled up against the Bombers here to back them. So
it's Ottawa. It's a half serious bet on Ottawa for
the half serious team.
Speaker 1: Is there a world we see Calaros versus Drew Brown?
Speaker 2: If there is? Like, is he? I Like, I've I
don't even know if he's an above average quarterback anymore?
Like he Yeah, and even when he's healthy, right, So
it's it's not looking good. He's taken two bad hits,
Like this was what everybody was worried about five years
ago when he when he was kind of bouncing around
between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg. He stayed pretty healthy. But yeah,
it's it's it's head injuries, right, So hey, like it's
up to him if he wants to play. I'm not
I'm not hot take telling an athlete what to do,
but I'm not interested in backing him the first game
back from this, and honestly, like he I think one
of the reporters there said, he's doing like the practice
that your third or four string quarterback would do, So
I'd be surprised if he dresses. So I think it's
pretty sure it's going to be streveler and you're hoping
that Drew Brown is there and you got some value
at least if you got a number less than three
and a half.
Speaker 1: Might sound crazy, but I'm gonna go with the under
in this one. The second I thought about Winnipeg and
I know I said, I went, you know, Drew Brown
being in is wait, everything any backup that Ottawa has
to roll out. I still think this is gonna be
like this is one of the bigger weeks that we've
seen for Winnipeg in a long time. And I know
it sounds like I'm exaggerating, but like, man, I haven't
seen Winnipeg go through it like they're going through it
right now. And like I literally can't remember how long,
like maybe five six years, Like this is a team
that's been in the Great Cup pretty much every year
over the last five years and now you know, now
they're underdogs against the Ottawa Redblacks. Here, what's going on,
you know, And sometimes you got to listen to what's
going on and see the games. And you and I
watching Chris Streveler that one. What a Friday night that was. Man,
I'll tell you what, that was a nice way to
start off the weekend. But I think that not that
they do this really, but I think that they're just
gonna baby him. Like I really think they're gonna baby
him when they get drives. When I was talking with
Gabe today, he literally said, he's like, man, Dustin Crumb
is just as good as Chris Streveler now, Like they
had this guy in the NFL practice rosters third, Like
this guy is scared to throw farther than fifteen yards.
So because of that, I'm hoping for some longer drives.
I'm hoping that Ottawa runs the ball, and I'm hoping
that Drew Brown doesn't just light it up in his
first game back. Let's not forget he hasn't been healthy
lately either. So I'm talking myself into some unders this week.
We'll see what can happen here. I have a feeling
that the ones that go under this week will be
a little sweaty, but the ones that go over might
fly over. But I think Winnipeg Ottawa could be a
kind of a sneaky under fifty spot. Wouldn't mind getting
some of that Ottawa poor weather. We'll monitor that, but
wouldn't mind some rain in auto. Offer this one under
fifty for me. Bobby says, fool me once, can't fool
me to twelve with Winnipeg. He's going against them this
week Edmonton Hamilton number was five and a half than
now six everywhere when it ultimately comes down to it, Bobby,
back to back weeks on the East coast here for
Edmonton and fourteen to what was it fourteen to three?
Were they up last week at halftime or fourteen to Yeah,
they were up quite a bit at halftime. Regardless, they
still end up covering the points spread, which you capitalized on.
Part of me was hesitant to be like, can Edmonton
do it again twice? But hey, again, they're not being
asked to win the game or anything. They're just being
asked for the second week in a row to hang around.
So I do lean towards the road team and it's
not because I don't have respect for Hamilton. I do
have respect for what Hamilton's done. It's more so just
simply put, I don't really think they're a team that
I want to see consistently laying points like this. So
are you gonna go back on Edmonton again?
Speaker 2: Well, it's tough to do because they had like six
turnovers against the Argos and they still managed to lose
the game. Like there's still a bad team even with
Cody Fajardo. But yeah, you're not gonna disrespect the ty Cats.
I will, like they're not I don't think they're a
good team. They're winning games against Chris Streveler and James Morgan,
So Edmonton, they've they've got a decent quarterback. Here. The
line is growing. I think it opened a couple points
below this that sit around six and a half now,
like I lean Edmonton, but like, if it's at this
six and a half range, I'm just gonna wait and
see if it goes to seven or it goes down
to six. I'm fine with either number. But if it
comes down I'm still fine with the six. But there's
an opportunity to grab a seven here with Edmonton and Yeah,
I just don't think Hamilton is going to be able
to run away with it. They didn't like even that.
Even that straveler was almost like it would have been
one of the ugliest backdoor covers. But yeah, they were
still leaving the back door cover open against against these
terrible quarterbacks. So I just don't think you're gonna see
Edmonton get out of this. Like they're not going to
be counted out of this game. So uh, happy to take.
Happy to take a number like like six, six and
a half, seven, whatever, whatever it turns out to be here.
Speaker 1: And one thing kind of nice about Edmonton this year,
despite everything that's gone on about them, is that they've
actually been a team. We haven't had to worry too
much about the injury list, right like we have him
been to hey, how's this guy doing, how's that guy doing.
It's more so just like the roster for being honest.
So yeah, from a points perspective, yeah, let's ask them
to hang around like it's not It's usually been their
opponent that we're checking on the roster and the health
very buddy, but with them, it's like, uh, do we
think they can hang around five or six points? Sure,
we'll take them again. And you know with this one,
I will sprinkle the money line a little bit here,
but I'll jump in at the plus six for sure.
So give me an interesting week. As we always talk about,
Tuesdays seems to be a data numbers move a little
bit into Wednesday. Then it's mostly game day, like seeing
what we saw last week. Since the NFL really started
two double headers, I know the the the the TSN
and and the TV rights people, they really like that
as well. With double headers apparently do a lot better
for the views. So yeah, make sure you're monitoring things, guys.
I'm gonna throw this out there, Bobby. I still think
that if people didn't get in on Montreal and your
book allows you to do a teaser, I'm gonna throw
this out there and you might not like it, but
I think a Montreal and Winnipeg teaser could be a
good one. I think that I think that if Ottawa
wins against Winnipeg, I think they keep it within a touchdown,
and I think Montreal can win outright, so you can
get them down to minus one or whatever it might
be around that range. So a rare CFL teaser I
would love to see Ottawa blow any team out, but
we'll see if they're capable of it. Clip that for
me if it ends up being like a twenty point
win for the Red Blacks, but that will be it.
Make sure you guys are following Bobby on X. Of course,
always got some good tweets. You had a funny one
earlier today. If you were betting like a pro, you'd
be down more units or something that cracked me up.
We have to get our notebook picks up soon enough.
But any any closing thoughts, No.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't hate that teaser you recommended there
just because of the numbers itself. Right, So there you go. O,
we're back. That's your way to get get behind Streveler
no matter what. Right. So, yeah, the teasers haven't been
i'ven't really been looking into him as much. I don't
like the sites that were offering the ridiculous prices on
them last year. Are aren't round to do it this year.
So I think it's more of the Ontario books. You're
able to do that. So if you've got it available,
go ahead. And yeah, a unit is not a thousand bucks,
it's it's a thousand bucks in the juice right, So
good for him. He's hedged his losses at least, so
no we five start to his handicapping career not ideal.
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: It's tough for them. People think. When the lights are
on and people are waiting for your picks, it's a
lot tougher than you think. I also saw a funny
thing today from those people that love those Same Game parlays.
It said, anybody can turn ten bucks into five hundred bucks,
try turning ten bucks into one thousand. That's what somebody
said about the Same Game Parlays pretty much saying they're
not impressed with people that contenex their money. So that's
the type of stuff you see on social media. But anyway,
we try and keep you guys locked in with the CFL.
We try and guy, do you in the right direction.
If you're riding with us, you're sticking with us through
the CFL. I cashed a five percent winner last week.
We did lose on Winnipeg. Let's hope to have a
big week here in week sixteen and make some money again.
All my picks at wager Talk follow Boby mister Surry
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