WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.640 --> 00:00:11.439 A lot of the funds of woe and an individual loss. 2 00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:22.000 This is the oh right, everybody, welcome to your one 3 00:00:22.039 --> 00:00:27.239 book show and this U what is it? Sunday, May fourth. 4 00:00:27.280 --> 00:00:32.840 I hope everybody's having a fantastic weekend. I am getting sick. 5 00:00:33.280 --> 00:00:35.640 Uh so, just just to let you know, I'm a 6 00:00:35.640 --> 00:00:37.880 little maybe I'll be a little slow today, and who 7 00:00:37.920 --> 00:00:41.159 knows what's gonna happen during the week. But it seems 8 00:00:41.200 --> 00:00:44.159 like every time I go travel somewhere, I come back 9 00:00:44.200 --> 00:00:48.399 with some virus, some kind of bug. And Michigan did 10 00:00:48.439 --> 00:00:50.719 not spare me. It seems like on the flight back, 11 00:00:50.759 --> 00:00:56.359 I that's something. Anyway, it just hit me yesterday, got it? 12 00:00:56.560 --> 00:01:00.520 You know, you'd think you develop immunity for these things 13 00:01:00.560 --> 00:01:04.640 like I've I've had. I thought every vibus that existed 14 00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:10.879 this season, and no, I got another one. So it's 15 00:01:10.879 --> 00:01:14.879 still at the beginning. So you know, I get a scratchy, 16 00:01:15.159 --> 00:01:19.040 sore throat and then it becomes a congestion. So I 17 00:01:19.120 --> 00:01:22.760 expect congestion to be what happens the rest of the week. 18 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.079 But I will do as many shows as I can 19 00:01:26.319 --> 00:01:31.640 and drink my my hot tea while I'm speaking. All right, 20 00:01:31.680 --> 00:01:36.000 I thought today we take a break, well not really, 21 00:01:36.200 --> 00:01:39.879 but from all the horrible news and all the bad 22 00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:47.359 stuff happening, and the the the the the idiocy that 23 00:01:47.480 --> 00:01:51.400 basically is visit a doctor. You don't visit a doctor 24 00:01:51.519 --> 00:01:59.400 for cold. It's not what you do. So I thought 25 00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:04.000 we take a break from the idiocy. All morning or afternoon, 26 00:02:04.040 --> 00:02:07.879 I've been watching the latest interview the Trump gave two 27 00:02:08.280 --> 00:02:10.240 I don't know what network it was, but it's all 28 00:02:10.240 --> 00:02:12.840 over the place where he basically says he's asked about 29 00:02:12.879 --> 00:02:16.400 due process and the constitution, following the Constitution, and his 30 00:02:16.479 --> 00:02:19.520 response to all of that is, yeah, I don't know. 31 00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:22.800 I don't know. I have good lawyers, they take care 32 00:02:22.840 --> 00:02:25.039 of this. I don't know. Am I supposed to follow 33 00:02:25.080 --> 00:02:28.479 the Constitution? I don't know. Due process? Fifth, I don't know. 34 00:02:29.759 --> 00:02:33.199 And he says, you know, get used to only having 35 00:02:33.439 --> 00:02:38.360 two dollars instead of thirty. A good question to come 36 00:02:38.400 --> 00:02:40.240 back to President Trump would be, what about the kid 37 00:02:40.240 --> 00:02:43.000 who has two dollars now because they can't afford thirty 38 00:02:43.520 --> 00:02:45.800 and now goes to zero dollars? Is that acceptable? I 39 00:02:45.800 --> 00:02:53.039 mean the whole thing anyway. Yeah, there's a ton of 40 00:02:53.120 --> 00:02:56.000 depressing stuff going on, and I see a lot of 41 00:02:56.000 --> 00:02:59.240 people out there and on the chat here and in 42 00:02:59.360 --> 00:03:05.240 the super chat periodically kind of in a sense giving 43 00:03:05.319 --> 00:03:09.639 up or accepting that this is the end. And if 44 00:03:09.680 --> 00:03:12.840 you're young, I'm not gonna have a job, and I'm 45 00:03:12.840 --> 00:03:14.800 not gonna have a life, and I'm not gonna have 46 00:03:14.800 --> 00:03:17.039 a house. I never for the house, never for this, 47 00:03:17.199 --> 00:03:22.719 never for that. And overall, you know, America's finished, and 48 00:03:23.039 --> 00:03:26.120 America is going to be poor, and generally you know 49 00:03:26.240 --> 00:03:33.840 life is going to suck, and that the future is overwhelming, bleak, 50 00:03:34.240 --> 00:03:38.400 and so I want to talk about that. I mean, 51 00:03:40.039 --> 00:03:43.759 let's be clear, we're facing unbelievable problems, and there's going 52 00:03:43.800 --> 00:03:48.360 to be a real economic price to pay for what 53 00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:54.039 is going on right now. But if your horizon is 54 00:03:54.080 --> 00:03:57.000 a little bit more than two, three, four years, if 55 00:03:57.039 --> 00:04:00.240 it's close to five to ten, then I just I 56 00:04:00.319 --> 00:04:02.919 just want, I just want to encourage everybody to calm down. 57 00:04:02.960 --> 00:04:06.159 And even in the short run, we're not looking at AMAgeddon. 58 00:04:06.280 --> 00:04:09.360 So that is the case I want to make today, 59 00:04:10.560 --> 00:04:14.039 and that's the case I will articulate. I encourage you 60 00:04:14.080 --> 00:04:17.319 to ask questions. There's a lot to ask about. There's 61 00:04:17.360 --> 00:04:20.000 a lot going on in the world, there's a lot 62 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:23.680 going on in people's lives. So ask me about anything, 63 00:04:23.959 --> 00:04:26.519 anything that is interesting to you or anything you'd like 64 00:04:26.519 --> 00:04:30.360 an answer for, and I'd be happy to try to 65 00:04:30.879 --> 00:04:35.439 answer your questions. That is the super chat. That's a 66 00:04:35.439 --> 00:04:37.439 way for you to value for value. You can also 67 00:04:37.480 --> 00:04:40.639 do stickers, which is another way. Sticker is a super 68 00:04:40.680 --> 00:04:43.439 chat without a question. It's another way to support the show, 69 00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:51.519 support you on book show. So I mean, there is 70 00:04:51.560 --> 00:04:53.399 a lot going wrong right now, and I'm not going 71 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:55.279 to list it because you all know it, and if 72 00:04:55.279 --> 00:04:57.319 you listen to your on book show, you know that. 73 00:04:58.519 --> 00:05:02.959 But let me say few things about the US economy. 74 00:05:03.079 --> 00:05:09.360 This economy is incredibly robust. It has a huge amount 75 00:05:09.360 --> 00:05:12.639 of flexibility within it. And in spite of the fact 76 00:05:12.680 --> 00:05:16.639 that people generally don't seem to be very smart, particularly 77 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:22.480 when it comes to abstract political concepts or philosophical concepts, 78 00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:30.279 the American businessman is incredibly productive, incredibly innovative, and incredibly 79 00:05:31.800 --> 00:05:40.000 flexible and forward looking. It is. You know, everything that's 80 00:05:40.000 --> 00:05:42.439 happening right now, as I've talked about in the past, 81 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:46.120 is a direct attack on a businessmen. You know, we 82 00:05:46.160 --> 00:05:52.680 are destroying their supply chains, disrupting their businesses. We're forcing 83 00:05:52.720 --> 00:05:58.279 them to work much longer hours, I guess, all in 84 00:05:58.319 --> 00:06:00.839 the name of bringing back a fifty's economy, much longer 85 00:06:00.839 --> 00:06:04.240 hours in order not to be more productive, in order 86 00:06:04.360 --> 00:06:09.720 not to increase economic output, in order not to enhance 87 00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:14.120 the economy or their economy or their companies, but just 88 00:06:14.160 --> 00:06:16.920 to survive. And that is going to happen. And if 89 00:06:16.920 --> 00:06:20.160 you run a small to medium size or you are 90 00:06:20.160 --> 00:06:23.560 a senior executive in a large company, you are scrambling 91 00:06:23.639 --> 00:06:26.319 right now, and you're working much longer hours than we 92 00:06:26.439 --> 00:06:31.600 would like an offer goal of just getting around the 93 00:06:31.639 --> 00:06:34.360 regulations and controls that the government is imposing on you, 94 00:06:34.439 --> 00:06:38.000 because that's what these tariffs are, their regulations and controls, 95 00:06:38.120 --> 00:06:41.040 the taxes. But they have they have the impact of 96 00:06:41.079 --> 00:06:57.120 regulations and controls. So uh so that is all happening, 97 00:06:57.160 --> 00:07:00.000 and that is true. But I have a huge amount 98 00:07:00.120 --> 00:07:03.240 of respect for those businessmen and I actually think that 99 00:07:03.319 --> 00:07:06.759 they will find solutions. Now. The solutions will be costly. 100 00:07:07.600 --> 00:07:14.480 The solutions will involve, you know, dramatic shifts and some 101 00:07:14.720 --> 00:07:19.680 pain and stagnation because these are again changes that are 102 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:23.800 not targeted and over towards growth. These are changes that 103 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:27.519 are targeted over in towards just keeping things the way 104 00:07:27.519 --> 00:07:33.839 they are. So this is very much going to be, uh, 105 00:07:34.120 --> 00:07:38.279 you know, going to be We're looking at stagnation, but 106 00:07:38.360 --> 00:07:41.399 I don't think we'll look at collapse. And there are 107 00:07:41.439 --> 00:07:44.439 some things to give credit where credit is do. There 108 00:07:44.439 --> 00:07:47.720 are some things that the Trump administration I don't think Trump, 109 00:07:47.759 --> 00:07:50.439 but the Trump administration is doing. They will mitigate some 110 00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:56.199 of this. We'll talk about that. So first realize there 111 00:07:56.199 --> 00:08:00.839 while some industries, some businesses small, m medium, signarticularly, are 112 00:08:00.879 --> 00:08:03.680 going to go bust in the next few months because 113 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:07.120 they can't source the materials they need from anywhere other 114 00:08:07.199 --> 00:08:14.600 than China, many businesses will somehow survive. They will survive 115 00:08:14.680 --> 00:08:17.959 by shifting their supply chains, by finding new sources, by 116 00:08:18.000 --> 00:08:24.800 paying more, but they will survive. Some products that we're 117 00:08:24.920 --> 00:08:30.199 used to buying easily and cheaply will disappear. But most 118 00:08:30.240 --> 00:08:33.039 of what we need, most of what we used to 119 00:08:33.759 --> 00:08:39.799 will continue to be available, if at higher prices. And 120 00:08:40.799 --> 00:08:44.159 what we're going to experience is a restructuring of the 121 00:08:44.200 --> 00:08:50.080 American economy to some extent, particularly in certain industries, in 122 00:08:51.000 --> 00:09:01.240 a direction of less efficiency, less productivity, less efficiency, less productivity. 123 00:09:02.120 --> 00:09:05.919 Now most of the economic growth that we get today, 124 00:09:06.960 --> 00:09:10.840 most of the real productivity gains, most of the progress 125 00:09:10.879 --> 00:09:15.720 that we see comes from, you know, broadly speaking, the 126 00:09:15.799 --> 00:09:21.879 tech sector. That sector has gotten a pass from Trump 127 00:09:22.039 --> 00:09:25.200 on many of the tariffs, So a lot of the 128 00:09:25.200 --> 00:09:27.519 electronics that tech sector needs in order to continue to 129 00:09:27.519 --> 00:09:32.600 build these products have been free of tariffs or a 130 00:09:32.720 --> 00:09:36.720 tariffs at a much lower rate, and therefore many of 131 00:09:36.720 --> 00:09:42.159 those jobs will be saved and the rest of the 132 00:09:42.200 --> 00:09:47.320 economy will have to adjust, will have to again reconfigure 133 00:09:47.320 --> 00:09:50.360 the supply chain. So we're going to see massive increases 134 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:55.600 and importation for Vietnam from South America from other countries. 135 00:09:56.480 --> 00:09:59.559 Prices will go up. The ten percent tariff, at least 136 00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:03.639 for now, can be avoided, but supply chains will readjust 137 00:10:03.840 --> 00:10:05.960 to the fact that we will not be buying stuff 138 00:10:05.960 --> 00:10:18.240 from China. In addition, you will see you know, stuff 139 00:10:18.240 --> 00:10:22.480 coming in kind of illegally. You will see smuggling go up, 140 00:10:23.000 --> 00:10:27.120 particularly for those products that are essential, but again those 141 00:10:27.120 --> 00:10:32.759 involved prices going up now, smuggling will probably be relatively small, 142 00:10:33.240 --> 00:10:38.919 although I do see a profited opportunity here for the cartels, 143 00:10:38.960 --> 00:10:42.799 you know, why not smuggling some spare parts into your 144 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:46.039 shipment a fentannyl across the US border. You've got the 145 00:10:46.399 --> 00:10:49.000 smuggling routes already figured out for the drugs and for 146 00:10:49.639 --> 00:10:52.840 so called illegal immigrants, and why not add some Chinese 147 00:10:52.840 --> 00:10:57.039 products on top of that. But you know that's not 148 00:10:57.080 --> 00:10:59.600 going to be a major effective. But here's what I 149 00:10:59.639 --> 00:11:04.039 do will happen. I do expect Trump to change his mind. 150 00:11:05.480 --> 00:11:09.080 I do expect as we enter or the threat of 151 00:11:09.120 --> 00:11:14.519 a session gets more significant if the stock market has 152 00:11:14.559 --> 00:11:18.039 another tumble. You remember it had that big tumble after 153 00:11:18.039 --> 00:11:22.360 deliberation Day. It's recovered most of that. Most of that 154 00:11:22.440 --> 00:11:26.960 is being recovered. Most of that has come back because 155 00:11:27.480 --> 00:11:32.279 the market expects Trump to change. The market expects Trump 156 00:11:32.320 --> 00:11:35.919 to cut some kind of deal that lowers lowest tasks 157 00:11:35.960 --> 00:11:38.320 on China. They expect him to cut some kind of 158 00:11:38.360 --> 00:11:41.759 deal with other countries. So at worse, the ten percent 159 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:48.039 stays uh and the market doesn't believe the lutinx of 160 00:11:48.080 --> 00:11:51.080 the world than the vows of the world that there's 161 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:53.960 a lot more still to come. The market seems to 162 00:11:54.000 --> 00:11:57.320 think that this is about it, and from now on 163 00:11:57.919 --> 00:11:59.720 it's only going to get better because Trump has learned 164 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:02.200 his less and they have taught it. Maybe they're right, 165 00:12:02.399 --> 00:12:08.080 Maybe he is going to learn his lesson. I think 166 00:12:08.080 --> 00:12:09.759 he's going to get a lot of backlash from this 167 00:12:11.639 --> 00:12:16.440 fewer dolls. Today he said the kids will have like, 168 00:12:16.559 --> 00:12:19.399 instead of two hundred and fifty pencils, five pencils or something. 169 00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:22.240 So it's not just dolls. It's just some pencils and 170 00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:25.120 maybe those little cause for boys. Now I shouldn't be 171 00:12:25.159 --> 00:12:30.840 sexist here, but so I think Trump is going to 172 00:12:30.840 --> 00:12:33.519 reduce tariffs. I think he's going to pretend to cut deals. 173 00:12:34.080 --> 00:12:36.080 I wouldn't be surprised if in the next month we 174 00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:40.720 have frameworks for future deals. They're kind of empty of content, 175 00:12:40.759 --> 00:12:44.039 but at least give the market confidence that tabson are 176 00:12:44.039 --> 00:12:48.039 going up a more than ten percent and America will adjust. 177 00:12:48.120 --> 00:12:50.240 It is not about to fall off a cliff. Trump 178 00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:52.559 could push it off a cliff, but I don't think 179 00:12:52.600 --> 00:12:55.600 he wants to. I don't think of something he's a nihilist. 180 00:12:55.840 --> 00:12:58.440 I mean, there's elements of nihilism in it. He likes 181 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:01.720 to see everybody groveling before, he likes to see everybody frantic, 182 00:13:02.159 --> 00:13:05.080 but he doesn't like to see everybody angry with him. 183 00:13:06.320 --> 00:13:10.840 He doesn't like that particularly, not CEOs of big companies. 184 00:13:12.759 --> 00:13:16.320 So I think he will adjust and he'll still do damage. 185 00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:18.720 An economy will go a lot less than it could have, 186 00:13:19.159 --> 00:13:22.759 and a lot of wealth will be destroyed, but we 187 00:13:22.799 --> 00:13:27.960 won't fall off a cliff. Now if you add to 188 00:13:28.000 --> 00:13:30.240 that the fact and this is where the trumpet Doina 189 00:13:30.320 --> 00:13:34.039 station is indeed doing good things. I mean, the story 190 00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:37.440 of it today, oh yesterday, that the EPA and the 191 00:13:37.519 --> 00:13:43.080 environment Mental Protection Agency basically shuttering whole departments. It's asking 192 00:13:43.080 --> 00:13:48.039 Congress for a lot less money. It's backing off dramatically 193 00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:56.559 from regulating US business and US production and US building. 194 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:03.639 Now this is huge. Now, while a lot of businessmen's 195 00:14:03.720 --> 00:14:05.679 energy and focus and effort is going to have to 196 00:14:05.679 --> 00:14:11.799 go to getting around the tariffs or finding substitutes to China, 197 00:14:12.639 --> 00:14:15.519 there's a chance they will be liberated from trying to 198 00:14:15.519 --> 00:14:19.039 get around the environmentalist tariffs, which is very hard to 199 00:14:19.039 --> 00:14:21.200 do because they've been around for a long time and 200 00:14:21.639 --> 00:14:26.480 they've been solidified. And in addition to that, they're going 201 00:14:26.559 --> 00:14:31.639 to be other deregulations. Other departments will deregulate the there 202 00:14:31.679 --> 00:14:35.080 will be you know, other parts of the economy that 203 00:14:35.159 --> 00:14:38.879 become a little bit at the margin free which I 204 00:14:38.879 --> 00:14:42.440 think we all benefit from. I'll als to say, just 205 00:14:42.840 --> 00:14:47.240 from economic perspective, the Saudis are coming to our protection 206 00:14:47.600 --> 00:14:49.879 defense not so much if you're in the energy industry 207 00:14:49.879 --> 00:14:52.279 of Saudis are not helping you, But the rest of US. 208 00:14:52.559 --> 00:14:57.360 Saudi Arabia today, I think another Opique meeting where they're 209 00:14:57.360 --> 00:15:03.960 announcing another increase in supply. So the Saudi's pumping oil out, 210 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:07.240 they're happy to see it below sixty bucks a barrow, 211 00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:11.080 partially because they cost of production is very, very low, 212 00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:14.799 so they make money no matter what. They are basically 213 00:15:14.879 --> 00:15:18.879 preventing the US from engaging in a massive increase in 214 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:22.799 production in the US because at under sixty dollars a barrow, 215 00:15:23.200 --> 00:15:26.320 it's just not economic for the United States engage in 216 00:15:27.159 --> 00:15:31.639 a massive drill, baby drill. And they're keeping all prices 217 00:15:31.720 --> 00:15:33.879 low so that all of you can drive this summer 218 00:15:34.639 --> 00:15:38.039 and that oil, which is a fact in production for 219 00:15:38.080 --> 00:15:41.120 a lot of things, will be cheap and companies can 220 00:15:41.240 --> 00:15:45.600 sustain reasonable profit margins in spite of everything going on 221 00:15:45.639 --> 00:15:51.279 because oil prices that is a vital input, will be lower. 222 00:15:52.799 --> 00:15:58.240 So again there's some offsetting factors in the world out 223 00:15:58.279 --> 00:16:10.159 there that make Trump's you know, uh, irrational economic decisions, 224 00:16:11.519 --> 00:16:14.519 less impactful and less destructive than they otherwise would be, 225 00:16:14.879 --> 00:16:19.120 then they otherwise would be. I wouldn't drive to Canada 226 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:22.200 if I were you. Yeah, don't drive to Canada. First 227 00:16:22.200 --> 00:16:24.600 of all, the Canadians don't want you, and they won't 228 00:16:24.639 --> 00:16:27.000 be nice to you. Canadians are typically nice. They're not 229 00:16:27.039 --> 00:16:28.720 gonna be nice to you if you come from the US. 230 00:16:29.120 --> 00:16:34.200 And second, you know, it's spending time in any more territory, 231 00:16:34.240 --> 00:16:35.759 I'm not sure they'd allow you back in you you 232 00:16:35.840 --> 00:16:43.919 might be accused of treeson or something. I'm kidding. So 233 00:16:43.919 --> 00:16:49.200 so we've you know, so there is, there is. It's 234 00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:53.279 not all bad news out there. I'll add to that 235 00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:56.840 that there now at least five or maybe six. And 236 00:16:56.960 --> 00:17:00.360 next week we're going to be interviewing Larry Salzman, who 237 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:02.159 is a party to one of these lawsuits. So at 238 00:17:02.240 --> 00:17:05.400 least five or six lawsuits with regard to the tariffs. 239 00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:07.839 So there are a lot of organizations, a lot of 240 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:10.920 entities that believe that they have a good case to 241 00:17:10.920 --> 00:17:16.640 put in front of the Supreme Courts to basically void 242 00:17:17.119 --> 00:17:21.319 the basis on which Trump declared these tariffs, and that 243 00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:25.839 would basically void the tariffs, and he would have to 244 00:17:26.119 --> 00:17:29.599 either go to Congress or be much more selective in 245 00:17:29.640 --> 00:17:31.920 his tariffs. And in order to make the case that 246 00:17:31.920 --> 00:17:35.640 there's a national security issue, he can't just use this 247 00:17:35.759 --> 00:17:46.039 law that he's using that doesn't mention tariffs to have 248 00:17:46.119 --> 00:17:50.000 these global tariffs on every country in the world. So 249 00:17:50.119 --> 00:17:55.079 there's a chance that this part of Trump's agenda. Indeed, 250 00:17:55.079 --> 00:17:57.839 there's a chance that much of Trump's agenda is going 251 00:17:57.880 --> 00:18:01.440 to be blocked in the courts. And this is where, 252 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:04.599 you know, I'm still positive about the Supreme Court. I 253 00:18:04.640 --> 00:18:07.440 still think they care about the Constitution. I don't think 254 00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:11.640 they're in Trump's pocket, and I think that they will 255 00:18:11.680 --> 00:18:14.519 want to reign in at least to some extent, not completely, 256 00:18:14.519 --> 00:18:18.680 but reign in at least to some extent. You know, 257 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:25.559 some of Trump's abuses. And now this I think is 258 00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:27.799 true culturally as well. So this is true of other 259 00:18:27.920 --> 00:18:32.440 topics we've already seen at a federal court Trump appointee 260 00:18:33.079 --> 00:18:38.839 declare the Use of the Alien's Enemies Act as unconstitutional 261 00:18:38.960 --> 00:18:42.559 and and band it from use. This is going to 262 00:18:42.599 --> 00:18:45.559 go to Supreme Court. There's a chance that the use 263 00:18:45.640 --> 00:18:51.000 of this Act, so the incarceration of illegal immigrants in 264 00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:54.599 jails and Olsalvado will be ruled on constitutional and that 265 00:18:54.720 --> 00:18:58.319 will stop. So I think the courts are going to 266 00:18:58.359 --> 00:19:03.079 step in here at least slow down, if not completely, 267 00:19:03.160 --> 00:19:07.799 stop this administration from pursuing the path that they're on. 268 00:19:10.039 --> 00:19:12.200 You also have to think about these things a little 269 00:19:12.240 --> 00:19:17.440 longer term. What Trump is doing is gonna have negative consequences. 270 00:19:17.960 --> 00:19:21.960 It's gonna have negative consequences among others in the communities 271 00:19:21.960 --> 00:19:27.200 that he's supposedly trying to help. Right now, people are 272 00:19:27.240 --> 00:19:32.000 losing their jobs in manufacturing, in the manufacturing sector because 273 00:19:32.359 --> 00:19:35.480 companies can't build stuff because they can't get the parts, 274 00:19:36.920 --> 00:19:40.119 or companies are so uncertain about the future that they're 275 00:19:40.160 --> 00:19:45.480 shrinking in order to wait and see what happens. And 276 00:19:45.519 --> 00:19:51.319 it is quite possible that his economic agenda becomes incredibly 277 00:19:51.519 --> 00:19:55.279 unpopular in America. It already is. He already has the 278 00:19:55.359 --> 00:20:00.359 lowest favorability ratings in the polls of any press resident, 279 00:20:00.519 --> 00:20:04.160 including himself in his first term, to any modern president. 280 00:20:04.839 --> 00:20:08.200 So right now Trump is less popular than Biden was. 281 00:20:09.519 --> 00:20:14.839 He's less popular than he was because of all this nonsense. 282 00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:18.599 American people don't buy it, and as it starts sinking, 283 00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:20.720 in that the President of the United States is telling 284 00:20:20.759 --> 00:20:23.519 you you can't have as many dolls, as many cars, 285 00:20:23.640 --> 00:20:27.519 as many or as many you know, anything that you 286 00:20:27.559 --> 00:20:30.799 want that you would like. The government is basically that's 287 00:20:30.799 --> 00:20:34.720 all going to shrink. I think Americans are going to 288 00:20:34.720 --> 00:20:37.960 rebel against that. They don't like to be told how 289 00:20:37.960 --> 00:20:43.160 many dolls they can buy. Economic nationalism, there's a limit 290 00:20:43.279 --> 00:20:46.119 central planning, there's a limit. I've always said America would 291 00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:49.279 not become socialist, and there's way too much of what 292 00:20:49.319 --> 00:20:52.039 the Trump administration is trying to do or the way 293 00:20:52.039 --> 00:20:58.839 they're expressing themselves with smacks of socialism. So there's going 294 00:20:58.920 --> 00:21:01.480 to be a real backlash. And there's a real chance 295 00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:05.119 that in twenty twenty six and in twenty twenty six 296 00:21:05.160 --> 00:21:07.839 will likely to be really suffering from all these crazy 297 00:21:07.880 --> 00:21:12.599 economic policies. Then in twenty twenty six, the Americans vote 298 00:21:12.599 --> 00:21:16.519 overwhelmingly for Democrats. And not that I'm a fan of 299 00:21:16.519 --> 00:21:20.759 the Democratic Party, but I am a fan of divided government. 300 00:21:20.799 --> 00:21:25.720 I'm a fan of you know, stellmate, of not getting 301 00:21:25.720 --> 00:21:29.799 anything done in Washington, DC. And I'm suddenly a fan 302 00:21:33.119 --> 00:21:42.519 of sending a message to Republicans the people are none 303 00:21:42.559 --> 00:21:48.680 of this site, so good luck. I've always been a 304 00:21:48.680 --> 00:21:51.680 fan of good luck. Good Luck is good. The best 305 00:21:51.839 --> 00:21:54.920 combination of good luck is a democratic president of Republican 306 00:21:54.960 --> 00:21:58.599 House and Senate. I told you that before this election, 307 00:21:58.799 --> 00:22:01.160 the House and Senate were pretty sure to stay Republican. 308 00:22:02.640 --> 00:22:08.079 We just got the presidency won't. So there's a good 309 00:22:08.160 --> 00:22:11.960 chance the JD Events will not be president in four years. 310 00:22:12.759 --> 00:22:15.759 There's a good chance the Republicans lose the presidency in 311 00:22:15.799 --> 00:22:18.559 four years. That or if there is a Republican president, 312 00:22:18.640 --> 00:22:24.640 that there's somebody more seen, less nationalists, less MAGA, because 313 00:22:24.680 --> 00:22:31.000 MAGA will be discredited. Now maybe because Mega dominates Republican politics, 314 00:22:31.000 --> 00:22:33.119 maybe they'll still be the nominee. But then they'll lose. 315 00:22:36.920 --> 00:22:41.880 Then they'll lose, and some of the better things that 316 00:22:41.880 --> 00:22:46.000 are happening right now, for example, the shrinking of the EPA, 317 00:22:46.480 --> 00:22:50.880 it will be very difficult for Democrats to ramp that 318 00:22:51.000 --> 00:22:54.000 back up. I think about it. You know, a lot 319 00:22:54.039 --> 00:22:57.799 of these people, generally the people fired from government. That's 320 00:22:57.839 --> 00:23:00.839 all good that they're firing people from government, because at 321 00:23:00.880 --> 00:23:03.839 the end of the day, it doesn't solve our budgetary problem. 322 00:23:03.920 --> 00:23:06.680 But in the long run, it's going to be hard 323 00:23:06.680 --> 00:23:10.039 to hire them back. People will leave government and they'll 324 00:23:10.039 --> 00:23:13.599 find real jobs in the real sector, in that private sector, 325 00:23:13.680 --> 00:23:18.680 and they won't want to go back to a government job. 326 00:23:20.519 --> 00:23:24.480 So there really is a chance, there really is a 327 00:23:24.599 --> 00:23:29.440 chance that you know, the shrinkage that is happening haphazardly 328 00:23:29.519 --> 00:23:34.200 today will actually be rationalized and actually in the long 329 00:23:34.279 --> 00:23:37.640 run represent a shrinkage in the number of employees in 330 00:23:37.640 --> 00:23:39.440 the government. And yes, some of that is bad in 331 00:23:39.480 --> 00:23:41.440 the sense that some of the stuff that the government 332 00:23:41.440 --> 00:23:43.559 is going to do anyway it's going to do, lives effectively. 333 00:23:44.039 --> 00:23:47.680 Maybe you know, others other places, they'll just have less 334 00:23:47.680 --> 00:23:50.839 people to harass us and to take our stuff and 335 00:23:50.880 --> 00:23:55.160 to regulate us and control us. And yes, it does 336 00:23:55.240 --> 00:23:58.000 look like the ep eight is indeed shrinking. Now we'll 337 00:23:58.039 --> 00:24:01.359 see what happens in the budget when the budget process ends, 338 00:24:01.720 --> 00:24:03.839 but it does seem like the EPA is going to 339 00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:08.039 Congress and kind of asking for shrinkings and in the 340 00:24:08.119 --> 00:24:12.720 meantime firing people, so that Congress faces in a sense 341 00:24:12.759 --> 00:24:14.559 coming to kind of some kind of fad or complete 342 00:24:17.519 --> 00:24:20.599 some From an economic and political perspective, I don't think 343 00:24:20.839 --> 00:24:23.799 all is lost. We adomed we're going into spiral and 344 00:24:23.799 --> 00:24:25.640 we're going to lose all our savings and we're going 345 00:24:25.720 --> 00:24:29.400 to face a eight. We're not going into great depression. 346 00:24:29.880 --> 00:24:31.279 You know, part of the reason we're not going to 347 00:24:31.319 --> 00:24:35.599 great depression is that, you know, the Great Depression was 348 00:24:35.640 --> 00:24:38.240 the loge extent caused by Federal Reserve that didn't know 349 00:24:38.279 --> 00:24:42.039 what it was doing. Fed Reserve there was young that 350 00:24:42.160 --> 00:24:45.279 had no experience, that know what was happening. Now, I 351 00:24:45.319 --> 00:24:48.359 think generally the Federalserve doesn't know what it's doing. But 352 00:24:49.599 --> 00:24:54.279 there's a scope, right, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to 353 00:24:54.400 --> 00:24:57.519 make the kind of mistake that leads to a great depression. 354 00:25:01.400 --> 00:25:04.359 It's more likely to cause inflation, it's more likely to 355 00:25:04.400 --> 00:25:07.599 cause stagflation, but it's unlikely to cause a great depression. 356 00:25:08.079 --> 00:25:11.000 And a great depression of the thirties was very much 357 00:25:11.000 --> 00:25:16.000 a monetary phenomena, very much a phenomena of just unbelievable 358 00:25:16.039 --> 00:25:20.799 restricting of credit and money and distorting our prices and 359 00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:26.960 a collapse, a collapse of the banking system. We just 360 00:25:27.119 --> 00:25:31.400 we're just more sophisticated today and and and more equipped 361 00:25:31.960 --> 00:25:35.440 and more flexible to deal with a situation like the 362 00:25:35.440 --> 00:25:38.319 Great Depression, not in a healthy way, right, or we're 363 00:25:38.319 --> 00:25:41.720 giving up is we're giving up economic growth. What we 364 00:25:41.799 --> 00:25:44.920 got is I mean we are we have an economy 365 00:25:44.960 --> 00:25:50.920 geared towards stagnation, gear towards low growth. That's what kind 366 00:25:50.920 --> 00:25:53.279 of those are the kind of institutions we have established 367 00:25:53.319 --> 00:25:56.599 in America and now really in the global economy. Uh, 368 00:25:57.599 --> 00:26:03.599 capitalism is geared towards high and by the way, it's 369 00:26:03.720 --> 00:26:08.359 very flexible and can deal with crises in a private context. 370 00:26:09.680 --> 00:26:13.519 What we had in the nineteen twenties and thirties is 371 00:26:13.559 --> 00:26:18.559 an economy that still thought it was free capitalist, but 372 00:26:18.640 --> 00:26:21.279 it had given a massive amount of power to a 373 00:26:21.359 --> 00:26:25.319 new entity with no knowledge, no experience, fed a reserve, 374 00:26:25.519 --> 00:26:28.799 and it made, you know, massive mistakes both in the 375 00:26:28.799 --> 00:26:32.839 twenties and the thirties that were incredibly destructive, and the 376 00:26:32.880 --> 00:26:35.680 economy did not have the means to deal with them. 377 00:26:36.680 --> 00:26:39.559 I don't think that happens again. So not heading towards 378 00:26:39.559 --> 00:26:43.279 a great depression, We're more likely heading towards ongoing stagnation. 379 00:26:43.400 --> 00:26:45.759 And the risk is that we are heading towards more 380 00:26:45.759 --> 00:26:50.720 authoritarianism down the road. Trump will not be it. He 381 00:26:50.880 --> 00:26:58.200 is not smart enough, He is not ideological enough. Trump 382 00:26:58.480 --> 00:27:02.240 has no ideology. He hates trade. That's about it. That's 383 00:27:02.279 --> 00:27:04.119 the only thing. And he hates him. But I don't 384 00:27:04.119 --> 00:27:06.799 even know he hates immigrants because half the time I 385 00:27:06.839 --> 00:27:11.680 think he just he's appeasing pressure groups. The anti immigration 386 00:27:11.799 --> 00:27:15.039 pressure group is very, very strong in the Republican Party 387 00:27:15.279 --> 00:27:21.759 in America. Generally, he's appeasing them. The only thing he 388 00:27:21.839 --> 00:27:25.920 really I think he really believes in is he hates 389 00:27:28.119 --> 00:27:33.680 what do you call it. He hates inputs. He hates 390 00:27:33.720 --> 00:27:36.880 trade deficits. That's the only thing he really there's me 391 00:27:37.000 --> 00:27:41.640 consistent about hating. Does he care about regulation. No. That's 392 00:27:41.640 --> 00:27:45.079 why deregulation is happening, not because of Trump. Trump's not 393 00:27:45.119 --> 00:27:47.839 pushing it. Trump's not hecoveraging it. He doesn't talk about 394 00:27:47.839 --> 00:27:56.559 any interviews, he doesn't give speeches about it. It's happening 395 00:27:56.559 --> 00:27:59.519 because he appointed some good people, some good people. Most 396 00:27:59.519 --> 00:28:01.359 of the people not good, but a few good people 397 00:28:01.359 --> 00:28:03.920 in departments weren't matters like the e PA, like the 398 00:28:04.000 --> 00:28:08.640 Energy Department, like Interia, maybe a few others. You know. 399 00:28:08.720 --> 00:28:12.000 That's where they that's where the deregulation is happening now 400 00:28:12.039 --> 00:28:14.200 because of Trump, but because the people they appointed, like 401 00:28:14.200 --> 00:28:17.079