Speaker 1: If you build a base, now you've got support, it
goes a little higher, and building up other base you
have support that goes up again. And I call it
grinding higher. And that's what we're seeing here over the
last several months. It's kind of just ground higher and higher.
People get a little disgusted. It's going sideways. Oh, it
can't get above thirty five? Oh man, thirty five?
Speaker 2: Is it all?
Speaker 1: Thirty five? Thirty five? Thirty And all of a sudden
it's thirty seven, you know, staying there and then you know.
So this is what I expect. You're listening to.
Speaker 3: Carrie let'sa's financial Survival Network where you get valuable information
you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's
trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more
than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get
your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more.
Speaker 2: Than ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm
your host, Carrie Let's. You're watching myself and David Morgan
the Moorganreport dot com. When I want info on silver,
when I want I really know what's happening, there's only
one person I think of, and that is you, David Morgan, Hey,
what can we say about silver? You know it's now
trading the highest it's been since twenty eleven. We broke forty,
we even broke forty one. And I know you're of
a conservative bent, But what your gut telling you? Is
this the real deal? Or are we going to get
a head fake again?
Speaker 1: Well, I'll let the market decide. I mean, I'm a
big believer. I've said so many times that the market
knows more than any of us. But having said that,
you know, all I need to do is see a
couple closes above forty, you know, a couple more days
in a row, and that's confirmation that it's a breakout.
I do think it probably is, and there's a much
upside resistance above the forty level. If you look back
in history, you know, the nineteen eighty high was intra
day and the fifty I'm talking about, or fifty two
to fifty was I think the clothes on the Chicago Exchange. Regardless,
that was very momentary. And then in twenty eleven, when
we didn't quite hit fifty, but we did trade above
forty four a month and a half. In another couple
of months if you look at the chart. So maybe
I don't know three and a half months. I haven't
studied it to the day, but it isn't a lot
of trading that went on above this level. So now
we have to build a base probably or we could
shoot up. But I'm thinking we're going to kind of, hopefully,
in my opinion, stair step up. And the reason I
say that is you really don't want a parabolic move
at this stage of the last leg up in the
precious metals, which means if it goes parabolic, you know,
like throwing up tennis ball in the air, what goes
up must come down. If you build a base, now
you've got support, it goes a little higher. And building
up you have support that goes up again, and I
call it grinding higher. And that's what we've seen here
over you know, the last several months. It's kind of
just ground higher and higher. People get a little disgusted.
It's going sideways. Oh, it can't get above thirty five?
Oh man, thirty five is it?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: Thirty five, thirty five, fifty And all of a sudden
it's thirty seven, you know, staying there and then you
know so this is what I expect. I don't feel
that we're going to get to fifty this year, but
you know, I'm happy if we do. But I'd rather
see what I just said that we kind of just
grind up over you know, current day to the end
of the year and build that base. They get more
and more participation where people get used to the idea
that silver is at forty forty two, forty three, forty four,
forty five, forty five, forty five, forty five, and it
keeps going. And of course it's up and down, as
we both know, but generally moving on it.
Speaker 2: Well, I feel confident saying it's a breakout, although you
do a lot more than I do. You got a
few more years in this space than me, a lot
more years. But I'm looking at the price of gold today.
Broke thirty five hundred thirty five thirty four according to Kitko.
If you can believe what they tell you, which generally
spot market, it's pretty spot on, no pun intended. And
silver broke that forty one in the access market. That
was something I wanted to talk to you about. But
right now, as of the ten AM fixed forty dollars
and eighty three cents. Now, last Friday was the last
trading day of August for netals, and that's always a
significant day, and silver didn't make it over forty and
one could aver or allege that the powers that be
were painting the tape. But then in the access market
over the weekend, on yesterday or the day before, it
broke four forty bucks without a hesitation. So which makes
me wonder is the COMEX losing its ability to control
these markets?
Speaker 1: Well, I would say somewhat. First of all, you know,
there's so much controversy within the metals community. I mean,
there's staunch, there's no manipulation, there's staunched, there is only manipulation.
And then there's people like me that have a different view,
differing view, and that is you cannot manipulate the long
term trend. Within that trend, you certainly can manage the
price from time to time, and that's been proven, to
my satisfaction by what Adrian Douglas did at GATA.
Speaker 2: I reread his paper on.
Speaker 1: It and what we did in the silver manifesto talking
about the sharps ratio. But I don't want to go
too far down that path. You asked the direct question.
Let me answer it as possible. Whether they did it
or not, I don't know. What I do know is
that and the access market is where most of the
time you'll see unusual trading activity. In terms of volume,
it's a smaller market. And anytime you put a large
sell on anything, be it a stock, be a commodity,
be it used cars, be it houses, where you say, well,
we've got this inventory, we want to dump it all
sell they now, the price is going to drop, especially
if you do it in a fin market, which is
the access market, because orders have to match. So if
you've got forty two dollars silver and you get an
abnormally large volume like five, six, seven, eight times a
normal volume, how do you match those orders? The answer
you don't. I mean you've got to go from forty
three and aay down to thirty eight before all the
orders line up.
Speaker 2: And some of those orders, I.
Speaker 1: Would tell you confidently, are not participants that are overseas.
There are people on the other exchanges that are waiting
to catch their own sort sale to close out their position.
This happens all the time.
Speaker 2: People don't think.
Speaker 1: That way, but that's exactly how it works. So there
is that part of it. I will not back down
on that fact. I mean spoofing. You know, think about
the manipulation and the many directions. So I'm on a roll.
But you know, if you go to somebody that's more
establishing than myself, and you absolutely go into though the
law the let's say what was written as a verdict,
you will not find a word manipulation. You'll find a
word spoofing. So you could argue as a lawyer, and
I know you have a legal background greater in mind,
I have contract law only. I got an A in
the class for.
Speaker 2: Whatever that's worth.
Speaker 1: Manipulation isn't in there, So I could go in the course,
there's no manipulation. Here's all the proof. You're on her,
and i'mderlying all the spoof Well, spoofing is no spoofy
is a manipulation. So you get in that semantics argument, right.
The point being is spoofing has been proven time and
time again. I consider to be managing the market, so
I'm using a different word your honor and life goes on.
And then you've got the argument, and I think it's
a justifiable argument. Well happens in all the markets. That's
probably true. I mean you've seen it happen in the
wheat market. You've seen it happen the oil market. Oil
is about as managers as the metals market, as far
as our data shows or the data shows us.
Speaker 2: Let me reframe that.
Speaker 1: And that is and this isn't like new I mean markets.
I mean we you know, read Jesse Livermore's book, you know,
I mean, this is not new to markets when people
could get an edge over each other, insider trading, the
whisper thing, seeing the crop report before anyone else. I mean,
this is not like you know, oh my goodness, it
just started or it started in nineteen seventy nine or whatever.
Come on, this is human nature, pitsland. It's on another
they're going to do. Sorry, I mean, there's something that
won't lay here.
Speaker 2: I shopped, yeah so so, but yeah, the long run,
but if they could keep doing it in the short run,
eventually it will catch up to them. But what is
the short run? Is it a week? Is it a day?
Is it a month? Six months? Six years? The game
has been a foot for a long long time here,
whatever the game is that they're playing, and no intelligent
minds can have differing opinions but certainly spoofing prices. I mean,
JP Morgan only paid a nine hundred and twenty million
there and they didn't protest too much about it. Maybe
there is a plan, maybe there's but for our purposes here,
it's not really relevant, is it.
Speaker 1: Well, again, if you go back to my premise that
you can't manage the launch or manipulate the long term trend,
I think if you keep that in mind and keep
and also keep the right amount, you know, I think
one of the problems with a lot of the metals
heads out there, and you know, maybe I misled people.
None of that was ever deliberate. I always said, basically
ten percent enough for most people of plenty if you're aggressive,
so that means you got eighty percent and whatever, real estate,
the stock market, private business, you know, art, I don't care.
You don't want to really load up too much in
the metals, and there's some such as myself Mike Maloney,
that really are overweighted. But it's our specialty and we're
comfortable there. But most people aren't comfortable, especially when I
see you know, Tesla taking off or their you know,
brother in law's got a rental apartment that's doubled the
rental price in the last five years long, so do it.
There's no The reason I started what I did was
I and know or new that a hedge was required
going into a monetary crisis. But I didn't know if
the crisis was ten years out, twenty years out, of
thirty years out, and I missed times it. I'll admit
that I thought it would be sooner than it is now.
But we're really entering in to the place where almost
all investors are waking up to the fact that something
is a right in the monetary system, and we're just
starting to see an exit out of or rotation out
of stocks of the only place to be the only
go up. I'm just going to keep doing an index
trading into you know what, I like gold, or I
want some gold, or I want to move some of
my profits in the gold. And that's already started. Of course,
it started a few years back with the central banks,
but now starting to move into the top tier. Let's
say the elites that have you know, gobs and gobs
of stock. They're selling off, you know, a billion dollars
worth of their shares and quietly moving into precious moments.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a kind of an inevitability to
it all, don't you think I do.
Speaker 1: I mean, this cycle has been gone through time and
time again. It's just never been a worldwide phenomena. I mean,
no one knows that better than you know, Martin Armstrong.
I mean he knows it better than I. But you know,
in other realms, you could have escaped to a different
country or a different currency and kind of protected yourself.
This way, there's really no out out of the US dollar.
Yes there's the bricks, but they really don't have an
official currency, and I don't think there's a way to
hiden the currency. Marty may disagree with me, but I
think gold as he says, it's not me he's necessarily
an inflation heads. It's a government hedge. When trusted government
breaks down, it's breaking down on a global basis. It's
not just you know, the constitutional republic that we purportedly have,
which is broken down years ago. You look at democracies,
you look at you know, socialist systems across the board.
You're seeing people that are disgusted with their leadership.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, well, you know, the game has always been
the same here, and I just think it's interesting that
we finally reached this point. I mean I felt like
we were coming here back when Silver broke thirty two
dollars that seemed to have been a key resistance point.
Thirty two fifty broke through there. Then it played around
here for a good six months before we got to
this point. I think it was back in May when
Silver or maybe April Silver hit thirty two bucks, I
don't remember off the top of my head. But yeah,
so resistance ahead. What what's the next resistance point? It's
got to be fifty bucks, right or forty nine to fifty. Yeah,
that's a psychological resistance. I mean, nineteen eighty its stayed
there for minutes on the floor, tat say an hour
or so. You go back to twenty eleven, at actually
didn't even hit fifty to hit the high high high forties.
Stayed there momentarily, and it lasted just a few days.
So it's psychological.
Speaker 1: There'd be probably algorithms that say, you know, sell out
at forty nine twenty two to fifty one eighty three,
whatever the you know, whatever's in the computer, and I
think that will happen. Now that's a guess, it's an
educated guess. But it doesn't really prove anything. I do
think it'll stall out because of the psychological resistance, but
there isn't really any true resistance there. I mean, as
far as you know, it's you know, having days and
weeks and months at that level and the never getting
beyond it, which we have seen and overcome as you outline.
So really I think it's a psychological barrier only I
do think it'll take place. I think it'll be momentary,
meaning you know, days, weeks, I don't think, you know,
a couple of months maybe, and then I think we'll
get through it the next time. And the next time
we do stay there under the more been rull three
four days in a row on big volume, on clothes only,
we're probably off to fifty five, sixty sixty five, who knows,
But it will be very interesting to see what happens
once it reaches the fifty level and we start seeing
a fifty handle where it's not three days, it's three weeks,
and then it's three months, and then it's you know whatever.
So looking forward to that day, it is ahead of
us as far as I can ascertain.
Speaker 2: Time will tell you know, I bought most of my
silver right after the crash, after the collapse, when metal
markets really got wasted, gold was trading as low as
seven hundred. Premiums were up. You know, premiums are asi
as ten percent, and I bought silver right around at
the same time for eight to ten dollars an ounce,
sometimes a little cheaper than that. So I've never really
ever thought of disposing of my physical at what point,
because you know, people get greedy and just like people
like me who sold their bitcoin at six hundred dollars
and thought they were cleaning up, we don't want to
be in that situation.
Speaker 1: It's a tough call, Kerrie. First of all, David Smith
and I wrote a book, Second Chance, and it talks
about how to take profits, and there's several ways to
do it. One thing that you got that I think about,
and I don't think it's voiced that often in the community,
and that is so as long as we're in a
dollar system.
Speaker 2: I put that in a quotation.
Speaker 1: Mark's not a you know, definition of a dollar, which
is a weight of silver, but in the parlance of
a februaryserve note, you've got to look at the history
that we have in modern times, the nearer term is
more important for trading than the long term. So golds
out of the ground all in sustaining costs, they can
make a round number about eighteen hundreds if you double
eighteen hundred to come out with thirty six. So right
now gold is trading about double what the ais C is.
So if we apply that same metric to silver, you
all sustaining costs somewhere around twenty six and around it
up to twenty eight. Double that, that's fifty six. So
we get to fifty six. We have the same metric
that we do in gold, meaning the all in sustaining
costs is two x what the you know, the price
is two x what the all.
Speaker 2: In sustaining cost is.
Speaker 1: Now, if we're just still trading in dollars, which we
probably will be, or federal reserve notes, how high is
it going to go within you know, within that realm?
In other words, unless you get a breakdown, which you
can of one or two things. One you could lose
faith in the dollar altogether, which is happening more and
more rapidly all the time, and that means converting those
thud reserve notes into hard assets, especially the Prentice metal,
you will push the price higher and higher could go
to absurd levels.
Speaker 2: However, that could be.
Speaker 1: A momentary event, just like it was in nineteen eighty
eighty twenty eleven, especially if there is a new monetary
system that's right around the corner, meaning they're going to
reprice everything in the new digital currency. So I don't
want to get too wrapped up in the one hundred
dollars five hundred dollars one thousand dollars silver or whatever
some of these numbers are out there. I want to
take a more practical view of what's the economy doing.
Are we in a blowoff inflationary mode? Are we looking
at something more of a debt liquidating liquidity squeeze where
the bond market gets forced lower because the interest rates
take off on their own, regardless of what the discount
window is set up by the Thuld Reserve Board, And
all of a sudden, people can't buy groceries or.
Speaker 2: Pay their electric bill. What are they going to do?
Speaker 1: So what I'm saying is an out living out. I'm
not ruling out a deflationary type of scenario that could
be temporary before a hyperinflationary blowoff or it takes hold
in it goes that direction. Which means you've got to
watch the market closely and price it accordingly.
Speaker 2: So let me do a real quick example.
Speaker 1: Let's say the SMP goes from sixty four hundred or
thereabouts down to five thousand, So whatever that is thirty
percent loss, I can't do that math in my head
that well, and then gold stays to goes to five thousand.
Now we got a one to one SMP.
Speaker 2: To gold.
Speaker 1: Well, now that piece of gold hasn't really changed.
Speaker 2: The price has. But what does it buy?
Speaker 1: What buys a lot more companies than it used to?
What if it buys more housing than it used to,
What if it buys more automobiles than it used to?
And that's what I'm looking for, because people want to
get a numerical price. But as the inflation or depreciations
a better term of the dollar continues, you're looking at
a shrink unit. You don't really know what the price is,
meaning it's the value, which means you've got to compare
it to other goods and services. So let's say, for example,
we do start to see a lot of backing down
in the equity side, and even the bond market starts
to have more and more.
Speaker 2: Problems now what do we do.
Speaker 1: Well, we evaluate what the value is of those metals
and how much they've appreciated against all their asset classes.
And if that's the case and the price remains the same,
the value has increased. And now what do we do well?
I think you use some logic, you say, you know what,
I'm going to take some profits here. I plan to
filter out on the way up, not get too greedy.
I know from trading futures for a living how difficult
it is. And always sell in the strength and not say,
oh my god, I sold it at fifty five in
the day. At sixty, well I didn't sell at all,
and it's still selling in the strength, and I still
have some powder. I might sell some more at sixty
or whatever. But there's a plan or plans outlined in
that book. To think you're going to get the very
tippy top. That's an amateurs game. You don't want to
play that game. You want to be a professional. You
want to get out within hopefully twenty percent of the top,
and at the top is one hundred, twenty percent of
that is eighty.
Speaker 2: So if you got out.
Speaker 1: At sixty seventy eighty and it went to one hundred,
and you got some out at ninety let's say, at
peaks and it starts to fall ninety eighty, you sell
off the rest. You're convinced that the peaks here, everybody's selling,
and call the dealers. I'm selling. Well, we're going to discount.
You discount.
Speaker 2: What do you mean?
Speaker 1: So it was it ninety, Well, we've got so many sellers,
we're just cutting you to eighty bucks, which is what
happened in the nineteen eighty run up. The dealers in
La bid backed about thirty five, even though the futures
price was hitty in fifty.
Speaker 2: Momentarily, yep, no, I just remember what Bernard Beruk said
that he got rich letting the other guy make the
last ten percent. And you know you can't expect to
get out at the top here. You're a professional, you
know you've been doing this your whole life, and you're
saying you can't get out at the top. How does
that work for me? It can't be done. But on
the other hand, you might always want to keep core
holding right, but my person power goes up so much
that you can buy other assets that historically were overvalued
for undervaluation. That's what you're saying, right, So if you
can buy a house for a thousand ounces of silver,
say just as a for instance, maybe you do that right, right,
And I think there's a legacy, you know.
Speaker 1: I mean you listen to Jim rickcards and a lot
of respect for Jim, and you know what are the
legacy investments? The lands lamb, golden and fine art are collectibles.
So you know, most people are out of the collectibles thing.
That's for pretty much the very rich. The gold is
accessible to almost start everyone these days in real estate.
And so I would definitely for a legacy toward my
kids and my granddaughter pass on some you know, some
precious metals. I probably never sell it all, but certainly
when it gets overvalued relative to other things. Again I
say overvalued, maybe not correctly priced in the imagination of
you know some people. I mean, so when you get
to the hyperinflation, the prices are relevant. I mean, in Zimbabwe,
the one hundred trillion dollar bills never hit circulation. The
currency had failed before those bills were allowed to circulate,
So you know what good were they?
Speaker 2: They weren't.
Speaker 1: They're worthless even though they had that large number on.
Speaker 2: MM. So I guess you know, the question on everybody's
mind is how high it can go, and your responses
doesn't matter. You have to watch it and don't be greedy.
Take your exit when it's time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just believe that you got to be a
sound mind, and you've got to, you know, be satisfied
with what you get. As the late great Jim Doane said,
love what you get, it's all you're gonna get.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I couldn't agree with that more. In fact, I've
more or less lived my life that way. You got
to want what life wants for you because you have
no control over what it's going to give you anyway,
So you might as well be happy with what you
have a little bit of philosophy, but it certainly happens
with the markets. But it is a nice feeling when
you see that your your stack is appreciating in value,
and you know it's more than doubled over past year
and a half. That is a good feeling. Oh absolutely.
Speaker 1: I mean you look at you know how poorly silver
has done. If you go to gold, you know from
the last twenty five years it has a Keeger compound
annual growth rate of over ten percent. That's better than
the stock market, which yes and P is about eight
percent and the housing market's about six percent. Now, silver
hasn't done as well as gold. It's somewhere near what
the S and P has done, but still that is
a compound. Now the problem is people say, well, wait
a minute, day, what are you talking about. I'm talking
about the compounded average growth it over that time period.
But that doesn't mean every year it does that. Some
years it goes up thirty percent, some years it goes
down thirty percent. But the idea of the metals especially
is its preserved wealth.
Speaker 2: Wealth preservation.
Speaker 1: It's there forever and always and because of that, if
you hedge or write them out for you five percent,
ten percent, twenty percent, whatever it is that in the
long run is going to do what I just outlined.
And this is something that investors actually have the mindset
to do it, whereas day traders, swing traders, traders really
don't have that mentality. That's okay, it takes all currents
to make a market. I've nothing against them at all.
They just have a different view of the markets and
how they approach them, and that's fine. But if you're
looking at the market as a speculator and yet you're
acting as an investor. You have cognitive dissonance. Oh my god,
I bought the silver of thirty and now it's twenty five.
Speaker 2: What A'm gonna do? What am I gonna do? What
I'm gonna do?
Speaker 1: Well, you're about to write them out. You're probably spit
a sleep soundly, because you know, if we go into
a currency crisis, you're going to do fine. And if
we don't, you're gonna be okay, especially if it even stays.
Speaker 2: Below where you bought it.
Speaker 1: Four in terms of Federal Reserve notes, at least, one,
you haven't lost everything. Two it has some value, and
three you should be happy in a way because you're
hedged in the worst case scenario. But people that go
all in and go for the wrong thing at the
wrong time, to buy the wrong product of the day,
they ever heard the word silver?
Speaker 2: You know. I'll tell you a little anecdotal tale here.
Back in twenty ten eleven, I was really business is great.
I just sold out of my law firm. I was
buying well the metal I could lay my hands on,
and I got my friend into doing it, and he
had a lot more money than me. He bought way more,
you know, he was sitting on over seven figures worth
and then his business went under. He got divorced, and
he said, you know, I needed to cash in a
lot of that. But if it wasn't for the fact
that you got me into it, I would have never
had that money. Because when you've got the medal, there's
an intense predisposition not to part with it, and it's
a kind of forced savings. So he was well ahead
of where our entry point was. But more importantly, it
was a type it's liquid, but it's still a pain
to get rid of. It's not like sending money from
one account to another or selling your crypto off and
transferring the money to your account. And as a result
of that friction to dispose of his medals hoard, he
had it when he needed it, and he was very
thankful to me. And I felt like, hey, what did
I do here? I just gave you my opinion, you
acted on it. I'm no financial advisor, but I'm putting
my money where my mouth is. And it really worked
out for him. So that is an added benefit to
having the physical that most of you out there really
don't get. All right, Well, it's great to talk to
you again. Especially on this momentous day. And I do
think it's momentous because we've got gold making new all
time highs and we've got silver making almost fifteen year
highs here. So this is a good day for US
vindication validation as if you needed it anyway, which you
certainly don't. Oh, one final thing, the metal stocks, precious
metal stocks, they seem to be coming back to life. Now,
what are your thoughts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, they're they're confirming the move. I mean, they've
been doing well during the summer while golds really been flat.
More and more interest in them. They are really the
value plays. I mean the gold miners were trading as
if gold was like twenty two hundred the ounce instead
of or thirty five hundred the ounce. They're starting to
move now. Newmont is the second best performing stock this
year on the sm P five hundred. Think about that,
five hundred stocks the videos edging it out slightly and
new Month's the second best.
Speaker 2: Maybe at the end of the week, New.
Speaker 1: Mount Willacks would be the number one best performing stock
on the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 2: Think about it.
Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, nobody's talking about that, So
it's pretty interesting.
Speaker 2: Yes, I know exactly what you're saying. Couldn't agree with you.
More holding of stocks and some really good ones, but
we don't really talk about particular stock names here. If
you are interested, you can always send me an email.
I'll shoot off to David. You can get the Morgan
Report where he covers a lot of companies and the
David's Pleasure. I've got a question for David myself. Shoot
me an email kl at Carrie Loot dot at carrielots
dot com. It's the Morgan Report dot com links to
the show notes if you go to the site Financial
Survival Network dot com, which we're phasing into a substax
site because it's just so much easier to manage, less costly,
and it lends itself to writing articles and newsletters, and
you'll find it there. But Financial Survival Network dot com
is going to take you there anyway. David can't thank
you enough. It's so great to reconnect with you. Hopefully
I'll see you at a conference one of these days.
So great, Grey, thank you very much.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial survival network now more than
ever