WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.000 --> 00:00:05.120 It's night Sime with Dan Ray. I'm tell you easy, Boston. 2 00:00:07.599 --> 00:00:10.240 Well, the election of twenty twenty four now is a 3 00:00:10.320 --> 00:00:14.039 mere days away, and it's really almost hours away at 4 00:00:14.039 --> 00:00:16.839 this point when you think about it. We've been looking 5 00:00:16.879 --> 00:00:19.519 at this for well, some people have been looking at 6 00:00:19.600 --> 00:00:24.000 it since January of twenty twenty one, or since November 7 00:00:24.000 --> 00:00:27.480 of twenty twenty. Certainly we've been immersed in this for 8 00:00:27.480 --> 00:00:29.800 a year. No one has been immersed in these sorts 9 00:00:29.800 --> 00:00:32.399 of elections for a longer period of time with a 10 00:00:32.439 --> 00:00:35.759 greater record of accuracy than my good friend John Zogby 11 00:00:35.799 --> 00:00:39.159 of John Zogby Strategies. John, thanks so much for making 12 00:00:39.159 --> 00:00:43.159 yourself available. I so appreciate you taking the time to 13 00:00:43.200 --> 00:00:43.840 be with us tonight. 14 00:00:43.880 --> 00:00:44.200 Thank you. 15 00:00:44.280 --> 00:00:49.119 Jan anytime the Friday before a presidential election in the tradition. 16 00:00:48.840 --> 00:00:51.039 For us, it has become that. 17 00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:54.960 By the way, if you want to ask John zog 18 00:00:55.000 --> 00:00:57.240 Be a question, John is going to stay with us 19 00:00:57.320 --> 00:01:01.200 until ten thirty. His time is veryval So you want 20 00:01:01.200 --> 00:01:03.039 to get on, and you want to get on early. 21 00:01:03.079 --> 00:01:05.120 The other thing wech you'd like to mention is that 22 00:01:06.519 --> 00:01:14.200 Zogbie Strategies does a webinar on Monday at noontime, tell 23 00:01:14.280 --> 00:01:17.000 us about the webinar and how people can participate in 24 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:20.359 that webinar if they're not fortunate enough to reach you tonight. 25 00:01:20.120 --> 00:01:26.319 John, so the webinar at noon on Monday. Best thing 26 00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:33.400 to do, I think is to write to Jeremy at 27 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:37.719 John Zogby Strategies dot com. He'll get your registered and 28 00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:41.799 show you how to register Jeremy at John Zogbi Strategies 29 00:01:42.239 --> 00:01:45.480 dot com. And what we're doing is we're doing our 30 00:01:45.560 --> 00:01:49.439 final poll tomorrow and Sunday, trying to take it as 31 00:01:49.760 --> 00:01:52.920 close to the end as we can a nationwide poll 32 00:01:53.000 --> 00:01:56.959 and see if we're going to get a break one 33 00:01:57.000 --> 00:02:00.719 way or another. So far there is no break. 34 00:02:01.680 --> 00:02:03.280 When will you be out in the field. 35 00:02:03.319 --> 00:02:05.799 You're going to be out tomorrow and Sunday or Sunday 36 00:02:05.840 --> 00:02:06.879 and Monday, or when. 37 00:02:07.959 --> 00:02:11.759 Tomorrow and Sunday and then we'll release their belts at 38 00:02:11.879 --> 00:02:12.960 noon on Monday. 39 00:02:13.319 --> 00:02:17.680 Okay, now you have been And one of the reasons 40 00:02:17.719 --> 00:02:20.240 I love to talk to you is that you have 41 00:02:20.599 --> 00:02:24.599 basically had a very good winning percentage. 42 00:02:24.000 --> 00:02:25.240 On these polls. 43 00:02:26.280 --> 00:02:32.400 Of going back to many elections, you've called these polls correctly, 44 00:02:32.520 --> 00:02:34.759 I believe since nineteen ninety six correct me. 45 00:02:34.759 --> 00:02:38.879 If I'm wrong, that's right, that is correct, okay. 46 00:02:38.599 --> 00:02:43.560 And some of them were very I mean, there might 47 00:02:43.599 --> 00:02:45.960 have been a couple of relatively easy ones in there. 48 00:02:46.000 --> 00:02:48.120 But you have the. 49 00:02:48.039 --> 00:02:56.080 Bush Gore poll from two thousand, which was correct. The 50 00:02:56.560 --> 00:03:00.639 Kerry Bush race in twenty twenty four was close. John 51 00:03:00.719 --> 00:03:05.159 McCain Barack Obama was close. You know, obviously you were 52 00:03:05.159 --> 00:03:09.919 able to figure the upset, the Trump upset over Hillary Clinton. 53 00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:13.439 What did you see in that in twenty sixteen, And 54 00:03:13.520 --> 00:03:17.039 are you seeing anything that is similar because some people 55 00:03:17.120 --> 00:03:24.240 are saying that that Trump is undervalued in polls, that 56 00:03:24.280 --> 00:03:26.639 there's always sort of like this three or four percent 57 00:03:26.719 --> 00:03:32.400 of of a hidden Trump vote. What is your gut 58 00:03:32.439 --> 00:03:35.120 at this person? What is you what do you write? 59 00:03:35.199 --> 00:03:39.439 So a couple of things about twenty sixteen, I did 60 00:03:39.479 --> 00:03:42.400 not poll. Then I had sold my company and we 61 00:03:42.719 --> 00:03:45.639 had just started a new one, and so I didn't 62 00:03:45.680 --> 00:03:48.960 pull it. But I'll take I'll mention the other polls 63 00:03:49.360 --> 00:03:53.719 which really were spot on. They may not have gotten 64 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:58.120 the correct percentages at the at the time, but they 65 00:03:58.240 --> 00:04:02.719 followed the trajectory. And what clearly if you look at 66 00:04:02.759 --> 00:04:06.919 the twenty sixteen polls correctly, you see Hillary Clinton going 67 00:04:07.319 --> 00:04:10.759 from a nine, ten to eleven point lead ten days 68 00:04:10.800 --> 00:04:14.479 before the election to a one two three point lead 69 00:04:14.800 --> 00:04:17.920 in each of those battleground states, or even a tie 70 00:04:18.079 --> 00:04:22.319 or deficit like Michigan or North Carolina. And so the 71 00:04:22.439 --> 00:04:26.879 trajectory was going against Hillary Clinton. So it really didn't 72 00:04:26.959 --> 00:04:32.920 surprise me that the next day she won the popular vote, 73 00:04:33.000 --> 00:04:37.680 but she lost many of those battleground states. I'm not 74 00:04:37.800 --> 00:04:41.480 so concerned on my end about a hidden Trump vote 75 00:04:41.720 --> 00:04:44.040 because I've been doing this for forty years and I 76 00:04:44.120 --> 00:04:48.240 have always found, from the early days the landline telephones, 77 00:04:48.600 --> 00:04:53.519 Republicans seem to be less inclined to answer polls, and 78 00:04:53.639 --> 00:04:58.639 same thing with online polls as well. So I build 79 00:04:58.839 --> 00:05:07.720 into my polling sample awaiting mechanism that automatically bumps the 80 00:05:07.759 --> 00:05:13.079 percentage of Republicans up a couple of points to reflect 81 00:05:13.279 --> 00:05:16.800 what I believe will be the electorate on either having 82 00:05:16.879 --> 00:05:20.839 voted already or on election day. So I'm not worried 83 00:05:20.879 --> 00:05:24.000 about that hidden Trump vote. I think I've got it covered. 84 00:05:24.560 --> 00:05:30.079 Okay, let's talk about I've been saying on air, I 85 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:34.040 would hope that, however the election turned out, there was 86 00:05:34.079 --> 00:05:39.480 a decisive victory. I don't expect a LinkedIn Johnson type 87 00:05:39.560 --> 00:05:44.000 landslide or Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan forty nine to one landslide. 88 00:05:44.000 --> 00:05:46.759 But I was hoping it'd be decisive to diminish the 89 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:51.120 hard feelings that I fear a close election will result in. 90 00:05:51.600 --> 00:05:53.439 It sounds to me at this point that my hope 91 00:05:53.439 --> 00:05:57.319 for a decisive victory in either direction is not likely. 92 00:05:59.240 --> 00:06:01.879 Well, we don't have any evidence of that yet, Dan. 93 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:06.560 Right now it is Razor Sin. The biggest lead in 94 00:06:06.600 --> 00:06:10.519 any of the battleground states is Donald Trump leading in 95 00:06:10.560 --> 00:06:13.680 Georgia by about two and a half percentage points. But 96 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:18.279 a more recent poll has the two of them tied. 97 00:06:18.680 --> 00:06:19.000 And so. 98 00:06:20.480 --> 00:06:24.160 We're not finding a trend line breaking one way or another. 99 00:06:24.600 --> 00:06:27.399 But this is Friday night, and I can point to 100 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:32.920 two elections, the nineteen eighty election Carter versus Reagan, where 101 00:06:32.959 --> 00:06:37.959 the dam burst over the weekend of that election and 102 00:06:38.040 --> 00:06:42.279 by Monday, the photos of Jimmy Carter was showing him despondent. 103 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:47.360 There were no public polls published, but privately Carter's polls 104 00:06:47.399 --> 00:06:49.439 showed that he was going to lose in a landslide 105 00:06:49.959 --> 00:06:54.240 the damn broke. And then in twenty twelve, something that 106 00:06:54.399 --> 00:07:00.279 is relevant to your listeners, particularly in Massachusetts, is that 107 00:07:00.360 --> 00:07:04.120 Obama and Romney was a razorsin race right on up 108 00:07:04.160 --> 00:07:07.639 to that weekend. I polled that race, and I started 109 00:07:07.639 --> 00:07:11.480 to see younger voters who had been disappointed in Barack 110 00:07:11.519 --> 00:07:16.160 Obama's first term saying they're coming out to vote and 111 00:07:16.199 --> 00:07:20.000 breaking big, particularly young women, towards Obama. 112 00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:21.319 And then, as you. 113 00:07:21.279 --> 00:07:24.639 Know, in the electoral college and popular vote, it was 114 00:07:24.680 --> 00:07:26.639 really a landslide, but it had. 115 00:07:26.480 --> 00:07:27.600 Been fulled. 116 00:07:29.199 --> 00:07:35.240 Twenty twelve in retrospect. Which stunned me was that President 117 00:07:35.279 --> 00:07:40.600 Obama actually won more popular vote. He won sixty nine 118 00:07:40.639 --> 00:07:44.040 million popular votes in two thousand and eight, and he's 119 00:07:44.079 --> 00:07:46.959 one of the few presidents who had his popular vote 120 00:07:47.160 --> 00:07:50.079 number drop by about four million. 121 00:07:51.240 --> 00:07:52.600 I think I'm right in these numbers. 122 00:07:52.680 --> 00:07:59.519 John, he only against Romney won sixty five million votes, right. 123 00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:04.959 Romney did not build on the McCain number at all. 124 00:08:06.160 --> 00:08:10.959 And that, to me was was really mystifying because you 125 00:08:11.000 --> 00:08:14.199 know Romney, we knew him in Massachusetts. 126 00:08:14.199 --> 00:08:15.439 He had been pretty effective here. 127 00:08:16.319 --> 00:08:20.199 And if someone had told me the weekend before that 128 00:08:20.279 --> 00:08:23.560 President Obama was going to be down five four million votes, 129 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:25.519 I would have bet a lot of money that Mitt 130 00:08:25.560 --> 00:08:28.560 Romney was going to win, but those votes went away, 131 00:08:28.600 --> 00:08:30.680 but they didn't go to the polls for Mitt Romney. 132 00:08:30.720 --> 00:08:34.440 So I don't know if there's a lesson here. I 133 00:08:34.480 --> 00:08:38.279 think it's going to be very tough for Vice President 134 00:08:38.320 --> 00:08:42.600 Harris to get to the eighty one million figure because 135 00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:50.279 Joe Biden, you know, he he's he won the most 136 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:54.039 popular votes of any president in history, eighty one million. 137 00:08:53.799 --> 00:08:57.039 Votes, and it was a far different Joe Biden in 138 00:08:57.159 --> 00:09:00.960 twenty twenty. He was Uncle Joe, and he had that 139 00:09:02.000 --> 00:09:08.480 he had the tragedies in his life. You know, twenty 140 00:09:08.519 --> 00:09:13.440 four percent of likely voters has had one or two 141 00:09:13.759 --> 00:09:19.000 major personal catastrophes in their lives. I found this out 142 00:09:19.039 --> 00:09:22.639 for my own polling, and in that regard, Joe Biden 143 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:26.080 was able to bond with people. He had a leveling 144 00:09:26.200 --> 00:09:29.559 experience that people could identify with, which you know, he 145 00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:34.039 lost frankly and by twenty twenty four. You know, we 146 00:09:34.080 --> 00:09:36.799 don't have to go into that. And I'm not sure 147 00:09:37.399 --> 00:09:44.960 Kamala Harris has that kind of leveling experience, especially to 148 00:09:45.159 --> 00:09:48.720 given the fact that she was really trashed by her 149 00:09:48.759 --> 00:09:53.159 own party throughout her vice presidency. In fact, one of 150 00:09:52.480 --> 00:09:58.360 the last minute efforts that the White House officials, campaign 151 00:09:58.440 --> 00:10:02.639 I should say campaign officials were making to keep Biden 152 00:10:02.679 --> 00:10:06.080 in the race was, God, you don't want Cammel to 153 00:10:06.120 --> 00:10:09.960 be the nominee. And then all of a sudden, late 154 00:10:10.080 --> 00:10:14.639 July happens she's the nominee. And you know, that's a 155 00:10:14.799 --> 00:10:18.639 very short period to cover all those battleground states and 156 00:10:18.679 --> 00:10:19.759 to define yourself. 157 00:10:21.080 --> 00:10:24.120 Yeah, it's it's it's going to be fascinating. My guess 158 00:10:24.200 --> 00:10:26.360 is John Zogby. If you'd like to talk to John, 159 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:28.279 I'm going to give you the number and you get 160 00:10:28.320 --> 00:10:30.039 it down quickly because he's going to be gone by 161 00:10:30.039 --> 00:10:32.120 ten thirty. He's going to be a busy guy this weekend. 162 00:10:32.120 --> 00:10:34.240 And I still appreciate him spending any time with us. 163 00:10:34.679 --> 00:10:37.519 Six one, seven, two, five four, ten thirty six one seven, 164 00:10:37.600 --> 00:10:40.639 nine three one, ten thirty. If you get in right now, 165 00:10:40.720 --> 00:10:42.320 I can get you on with John Zogby. 166 00:10:42.360 --> 00:10:42.960 We'll be back. 167 00:10:43.039 --> 00:10:46.919 Any question you'd like to ask. I think he stated 168 00:10:46.919 --> 00:10:49.159 it pretty clearly that as of now, there is no 169 00:10:49.639 --> 00:10:53.720 clear conclusion that he's been able to draw. I look 170 00:10:53.759 --> 00:10:55.879 at all the other posters, and I think that they 171 00:10:55.879 --> 00:10:59.080 are in consensus on this. But he did say that Hey, 172 00:10:59.120 --> 00:11:01.879 sometimes in the final weekend before an election, and he 173 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:05.559 cites a couple of years, nineteen eighty and twenty twelve, 174 00:11:06.639 --> 00:11:10.240 the undecided's break. I guess my counter argument would be, 175 00:11:10.360 --> 00:11:12.480 I don't know how many undeciders are still out there. 176 00:11:12.559 --> 00:11:16.399 That'll be my question coming back for John Zogby. Have 177 00:11:16.519 --> 00:11:19.960 we exhausted the bucket of undecided? We'll be back on 178 00:11:20.080 --> 00:11:22.799 Nightside with some phone calls and some more conversation with 179 00:11:22.879 --> 00:11:26.000 John Zogby as we we go into the weekend before 180 00:11:26.039 --> 00:11:28.080 the election of twenty twenty four. We only do this 181 00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:30.679 every four years, everyone, so this is a really important 182 00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:31.080 period of. 183 00:11:31.080 --> 00:11:31.919 Time in our history. 184 00:11:31.960 --> 00:11:35.600 Back on Nightside right after this, It's night Side. 185 00:11:35.360 --> 00:11:36.240 With Dan Ray. 186 00:11:36.320 --> 00:11:41.720 Hey Dan, WBZ Boston's News Radio. Now back to Dan 187 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:46.039 Ray live from the Window World Nightside Studios on WBZ 188 00:11:46.440 --> 00:11:47.039 News Radio. 189 00:11:48.159 --> 00:11:50.200 Before we get to a couple of calls and we will, 190 00:11:50.240 --> 00:11:54.240 I promise John Zogby, are there any undecided's, truly undecideds 191 00:11:54.320 --> 00:11:55.120 left in this race? 192 00:11:56.279 --> 00:11:56.440 Oh? 193 00:11:56.519 --> 00:12:00.279 There are? And to be really, it's so much they're 194 00:12:00.320 --> 00:12:01.960 going to vote for Trump or Harris. 195 00:12:01.960 --> 00:12:02.679 It's whether or not. 196 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:07.639 They vote at all. And a lower voter turnout really 197 00:12:07.679 --> 00:12:11.360 is an advantage for Donald Trump. Harris, on the other hand, 198 00:12:11.519 --> 00:12:15.279 needs to get young women out to vote, working hard 199 00:12:15.279 --> 00:12:18.279 to do that, but she needs as big account as 200 00:12:18.279 --> 00:12:18.879 she can get. 201 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:23.879 And none of the controversies of the last few days 202 00:12:24.759 --> 00:12:27.759 seem to have had an impact. I watched these polls, 203 00:12:28.080 --> 00:12:30.000 maybe not as closely as you, but I try to 204 00:12:30.039 --> 00:12:33.320 watch them closely, and I don't see much movement in 205 00:12:33.399 --> 00:12:36.240 the last few days, certainly not. 206 00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:39.519 On a global level, not in the national polls were 207 00:12:39.559 --> 00:12:42.879 for that that are really in the states, you know, 208 00:12:43.200 --> 00:12:47.000 on a micro level, if we're getting down to one 209 00:12:47.080 --> 00:12:50.399 point or you know, a few hundred or a few 210 00:12:50.480 --> 00:12:55.120 thousand votes differential between the two candidates. Yes, some angry 211 00:12:55.159 --> 00:12:58.559 Puerto Ricans, to be sure, can make a difference. Yes, 212 00:12:58.639 --> 00:13:04.639 some angry era Americans in Michigan and in Pennsylvania can 213 00:13:04.679 --> 00:13:05.799 certainly make a difference. 214 00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:08.240 All right, We're going to go to phone calls, and again, 215 00:13:08.320 --> 00:13:10.519 John Jogby, thank you so much for your time here. 216 00:13:10.559 --> 00:13:12.360 I'm going to ask both of these callers who I'm 217 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:13.919 going to be trying to get to it. Let me 218 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:17.399 start off with Tom and Lynn Massachusetts. Tom quick question, 219 00:13:17.480 --> 00:13:19.879 direct question for John Zogby, If you will, sir, go 220 00:13:19.960 --> 00:13:20.399 right ahead. 221 00:13:21.200 --> 00:13:23.639 Okay. Three things, will hang up and listen. One, what's 222 00:13:23.679 --> 00:13:25.039 his vote Jewish voters doing? 223 00:13:25.480 --> 00:13:25.799 Two? 224 00:13:27.480 --> 00:13:31.720 Do you ever consider ranked choice voting in your polling process? 225 00:13:32.279 --> 00:13:35.440 And the third one is can you talk a little 226 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:37.320 about super voters? That's say thank you? 227 00:13:38.600 --> 00:13:42.759 Okay, let's start with Jewish voters. First, what's going on 228 00:13:42.879 --> 00:13:43.720 with Jewish voters? 229 00:13:44.120 --> 00:13:47.840 John, The only poll I've seen about three weeks ago 230 00:13:48.039 --> 00:13:53.240 shows Jewish voters. It's seventy one percent for Harris, twenty 231 00:13:53.279 --> 00:13:56.919 six percent for Trump. Dan, that's about average. We haven't 232 00:13:56.919 --> 00:14:01.200 seen any real opment there. The second question was the 233 00:14:01.279 --> 00:14:02.039 second question was. 234 00:14:02.080 --> 00:14:04.399 Ranked choice voting, which I don't think really applies. You 235 00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:07.279 can pass on that one if you want. I understand 236 00:14:07.320 --> 00:14:10.360 what rank choice voting is, butl go ahead. 237 00:14:10.799 --> 00:14:13.840 I put it in locales and it's a very popular 238 00:14:13.960 --> 00:14:18.240 idea wherever I polled it. But yeah, it's not relevant here, okay. 239 00:14:18.399 --> 00:14:21.440 And then so called super voters, So people who I 240 00:14:21.519 --> 00:14:25.679 guess are always voting. Those are the voters, the best 241 00:14:25.720 --> 00:14:28.480 voters that the campaigns like to identify the people who 242 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:30.120 you know are going to vote every time. 243 00:14:31.320 --> 00:14:31.799 Yeah, and. 244 00:14:33.399 --> 00:14:35.840 Those folks are at a time, which is where the 245 00:14:35.960 --> 00:14:38.840 non super voters are too. We're not getting really any 246 00:14:38.919 --> 00:14:39.440 clues here. 247 00:14:39.559 --> 00:14:42.759 Dan. All right, well, you know, hey, as you said, 248 00:14:42.799 --> 00:14:44.720 we still have some time. Let me go next to 249 00:14:45.240 --> 00:14:49.960 Paul in Wilkesbury, Pennsylvania. The a town of the New 250 00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:53.080 York Yankees and the New York Yankees is going to 251 00:14:53.159 --> 00:14:55.039 need some help next year to get over the hump. 252 00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:58.240 Go ahead, Paul. We're not talking baseball. You're talking polls 253 00:14:58.240 --> 00:14:59.639 with John Zogby. Garrett Ahead. 254 00:15:00.159 --> 00:15:01.399 Dan, thank you for taking my call. 255 00:15:01.519 --> 00:15:04.120 My question is on John, as you were talking about 256 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:08.240 the twenty twelve election with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. 257 00:15:08.559 --> 00:15:10.559 This is just my theory. I'll run up by John. 258 00:15:11.279 --> 00:15:13.279 I think the fact that Mike Huckabee stayed in the 259 00:15:13.399 --> 00:15:16.120 ray so long in the primary and he turned the 260 00:15:16.159 --> 00:15:18.799 evangelical voters the instiment Rodney, but he was a warmon 261 00:15:18.879 --> 00:15:21.320 he was in Romney. You know, we can say what 262 00:15:21.399 --> 00:15:23.440 you want about it, but there's no reason to day 263 00:15:23.559 --> 00:15:25.519 to the matter of religion. And Mike Kkaby did that 264 00:15:25.679 --> 00:15:27.799 roundabout way. He's scared off a lot of it in 265 00:15:27.879 --> 00:15:31.279 the evangelical vote by the time he ran against Barack Obama, 266 00:15:31.320 --> 00:15:33.320 who I did vote for that election in twenty twenty 267 00:15:33.440 --> 00:15:36.639 voting for President Obama is he got a lotted in 268 00:15:36.679 --> 00:15:38.720 a few years and I was discussed with the Republicans 269 00:15:38.759 --> 00:15:40.840 at the time. But my question for John is does 270 00:15:40.879 --> 00:15:43.519 he think that need to do it? Rodney losing the 271 00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:45.919 fact that Mike Knkaby stayed in the primary, that a 272 00:15:45.960 --> 00:15:47.799 lot of estavaged him, and all this stuff, the art 273 00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:48.440 thank you sers. 274 00:15:49.120 --> 00:15:55.919 Okay, my base was what we're Christian evangelical voters and 275 00:15:56.559 --> 00:16:02.480 this is uh, Romney underperformed among evangelical voters. But I 276 00:16:02.600 --> 00:16:05.600 think you're correct. I think that huckelby staying in the 277 00:16:05.720 --> 00:16:12.360 race allowed that let's call it Romney hostility or anti 278 00:16:12.519 --> 00:16:16.240 Romney sentiment to kind of congeal a little bit and 279 00:16:16.360 --> 00:16:17.600 damp and turn out for him. 280 00:16:18.840 --> 00:16:21.320 Yeah, but again coming back, so let's come back to 281 00:16:21.720 --> 00:16:28.519 twenty twenty four, and that is I know why Donald Trump, Well, 282 00:16:29.519 --> 00:16:32.120 it seems to me that the best thing that Donald 283 00:16:32.159 --> 00:16:36.320 Trump could do tomorrow would be to bring Nikki Haley 284 00:16:36.440 --> 00:16:41.240 out with him to event after event after event in Pennsylvania, Michigan, 285 00:16:41.320 --> 00:16:45.639 and Wisconsin. Pretty clear it's not going to happen. Do 286 00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:47.840 you think that if you sat across the table as 287 00:16:47.919 --> 00:16:50.360 a pollster and you said to Trump, if you bring 288 00:16:50.519 --> 00:16:53.000 Haley out for the next two days, you're going to 289 00:16:53.039 --> 00:16:55.679 win this election. If you don't bring her out, you're 290 00:16:55.720 --> 00:16:57.840 going to lose it. Do you think that would change 291 00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:00.919 Trump's mind? I just think that Trump is ignoring a 292 00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:08.839 possibility here. And I don't understand why Nikki Haley has 293 00:17:08.920 --> 00:17:12.640 not She's willing to appear with Trump, and he has 294 00:17:12.720 --> 00:17:14.880 not accepted that that overture. 295 00:17:16.599 --> 00:17:20.279 He's obviously a very proud man, and she had the 296 00:17:20.359 --> 00:17:24.200 audacity to challenge him, and even worse, she had the 297 00:17:24.279 --> 00:17:28.440 audacity to get a considerable amount of votes in states 298 00:17:28.440 --> 00:17:31.400 where she was already off the ballot and out of 299 00:17:31.480 --> 00:17:35.319 the race. And so I could say that to Donald Trump, 300 00:17:35.400 --> 00:17:37.000 but I don't have any sense at all that he 301 00:17:37.039 --> 00:17:38.400 would hear a word that I was saying. 302 00:17:39.680 --> 00:17:43.319 Yeah, and that's a blind spot. It's almost like you 303 00:17:43.440 --> 00:17:46.759 know a professional athlete who has a blind spot and 304 00:17:46.880 --> 00:17:51.079 they just can't get over it. And I think that 305 00:17:51.279 --> 00:17:54.319 if if he loses, and as a pretty good possibility 306 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:56.960 he is going to lose, that that's going to be 307 00:17:57.359 --> 00:18:02.480 the obituary, the political obittion. Worry that he chose that 308 00:18:02.599 --> 00:18:06.880 he would prefer to lose without Haley then to win 309 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:09.119 with him. Do you agree with me that if Haley 310 00:18:09.400 --> 00:18:13.319 actually appeared with him at several campaign stops in the 311 00:18:13.400 --> 00:18:16.359 next two or three days, that could be an instrumental 312 00:18:17.039 --> 00:18:20.240 in a close race for him to actually achieve victory. 313 00:18:20.279 --> 00:18:21.000 I would agree with that. 314 00:18:22.480 --> 00:18:26.039 You know, Harris is vigorously going after Haley voters, and 315 00:18:26.240 --> 00:18:31.200 yet these are still conservative voters who have some questions 316 00:18:31.799 --> 00:18:38.559 about Kamala Harrison voting for Kamala Harris. What I don't 317 00:18:38.599 --> 00:18:42.440 see Trump doing is adding on. You know, he gets 318 00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:45.359 forty six percent of the vote the last two times 319 00:18:45.400 --> 00:18:50.160 he runs. This time he's pulling about forty seven eight percent. 320 00:18:50.519 --> 00:18:53.920 But he's got to get additional votes somewhere, and I 321 00:18:54.000 --> 00:18:55.359 don't see where he's building. 322 00:18:57.000 --> 00:18:59.400 Yeah, I mean, if he's if he gets to forty 323 00:18:59.440 --> 00:19:01.880 eight and this is by four percent, and I don't 324 00:19:01.960 --> 00:19:06.240 know if there's how big a vote Jill Stein or 325 00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:12.640 Cornell West or the libertarian candidate, but he kind of 326 00:19:12.920 --> 00:19:14.599 he won't win with forty eight. If he gets the 327 00:19:14.640 --> 00:19:18.440 forty nine percent of the popular vote, he could he 328 00:19:18.519 --> 00:19:21.400 could win the electoral vote. In my opinion, I think 329 00:19:21.480 --> 00:19:25.000 that's that differential between forty eight and forty nine is critical, 330 00:19:25.599 --> 00:19:29.680 and I'm gonna ask you the question again and try 331 00:19:29.720 --> 00:19:31.599 to put you in the record if if, somehow, some 332 00:19:31.759 --> 00:19:33.880 way tomorrow morning he woke up and said, bring Haley, 333 00:19:33.920 --> 00:19:35.759 I want Haley with me, and she decided to go. 334 00:19:36.839 --> 00:19:38.480 Could that be a difference maker for him? 335 00:19:38.759 --> 00:19:44.480 From in your real it would be it's the racist close. 336 00:19:44.920 --> 00:19:50.359 Trump is very close. He needs to add voters somewhere 337 00:19:50.440 --> 00:19:54.359 and there. You ask about the undecided, that there are 338 00:19:54.359 --> 00:19:58.759 a considerable number of Nicky Haley voters that detest Donald 339 00:19:58.759 --> 00:20:02.000 Trump or have questions about him and not ready to 340 00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:05.559 vote for Kamala Harris. You know this would be a 341 00:20:05.680 --> 00:20:09.240 bridge building thing. But remember one point I need to 342 00:20:09.359 --> 00:20:18.720 make is given the electoral college, in the popular vote nationally, 343 00:20:18.880 --> 00:20:22.279 Kamala Harrison needs to be leading by about three points 344 00:20:23.559 --> 00:20:27.519 in order to you know, feel comfortable about winning in 345 00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:31.759 the battleground states. Remember she gets a lot of excess 346 00:20:32.440 --> 00:20:36.720 Democratic votes in California, New York, Illinois, you know, very 347 00:20:36.839 --> 00:20:40.519 blue states. The extra votes she doesn't need to win 348 00:20:40.599 --> 00:20:42.079 the electoral college. 349 00:20:42.079 --> 00:20:47.000 And we could throw Massachusetts into that category as well. Absolutely, yeah, 350 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:50.319 John Zogby, I thank you so much. You know it's 351 00:20:50.359 --> 00:20:53.960 going to be a very interesting time for all of us, 352 00:20:54.160 --> 00:20:57.319 and I know that that you are going to be 353 00:20:57.359 --> 00:20:59.519 in the middle of it. Again, I thank you for 354 00:20:59.640 --> 00:21:04.559 your your kindness, and again the Zogby webinar is available 355 00:21:05.039 --> 00:21:08.960 at noontime on a subscription basis. All they have to 356 00:21:09.039 --> 00:21:12.400 do is go to I believe you said, Jeremy at 357 00:21:12.519 --> 00:21:18.039 Zogby's Strategies. Jeremy is your son, Jeremy at Zogby Strategies. 358 00:21:17.839 --> 00:21:23.240 Dot com, Jeremy Zogby Strategies, Jeremy at John Strategies. 359 00:21:23.480 --> 00:21:27.319 Okay, great, Jeremy at John Zogby Strategies. That's an important difference. 360 00:21:27.440 --> 00:21:30.799 And just or just google on John Zogby and it'll 361 00:21:30.839 --> 00:21:33.000 get you there as well. John Zogby, thank you so much. 362 00:21:33.119 --> 00:21:35.200 As always. Happy election Day. 363 00:21:35.079 --> 00:21:37.559 To you, my friend, You too, my friend. 364 00:21:37.640 --> 00:21:38.680 Take care all right? 365 00:21:38.759 --> 00:21:39.000 Thanks? 366 00:21:39.440 --> 00:21:42.400 All right, Now we're going to open up the lines, 367 00:21:42.680 --> 00:21:47.440 and I want to the next I want to spend 368 00:21:47.480 --> 00:21:50.720 the next half hour between now to eleven o'clock on 369 00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:55.799 a question. And the question is why is Donald Trump 370 00:21:57.480 --> 00:22:02.640 not taking the opportunity of having NICKI Haley with him 371 00:22:02.680 --> 00:22:02.880 in the. 372 00:22:02.920 --> 00:22:05.599 Final days of this race. I know that most of 373 00:22:05.680 --> 00:22:06.319 you are. 374 00:22:07.880 --> 00:22:10.319 Who want to respond to this or Trump voters, But 375 00:22:10.480 --> 00:22:13.519 I'd like to hear from both Trump and Harris voters. 376 00:22:14.799 --> 00:22:17.079 For the Harris voters, I ask, do you fear that 377 00:22:18.519 --> 00:22:20.720 or are you so convinced that he won't do it? 378 00:22:20.920 --> 00:22:23.759 You don't fear it? And if you're a Trump voter, 379 00:22:25.599 --> 00:22:29.359 why would your candidate not be smart enough to basically 380 00:22:29.480 --> 00:22:32.319 put his ego in his back pocket for a couple 381 00:22:32.400 --> 00:22:39.480 of days and bring out the one opponent I was Trump, 382 00:22:39.519 --> 00:22:44.680 I would bring DeSantis, Rubio, all of them, and particularly 383 00:22:44.759 --> 00:22:48.079 Nicki Haley. This is a question of it's all on 384 00:22:48.200 --> 00:22:53.000 the line here and is his ego so overwhelming that 385 00:22:53.160 --> 00:22:59.119 he couldnt even acknowledge that that maybe he can't win 386 00:22:59.240 --> 00:23:04.880 this election on his own? That's my question. I will 387 00:23:04.920 --> 00:23:07.400 have a different question at eleven o'clock tonight in the 388 00:23:07.480 --> 00:23:10.680 twentieth hour. It will also deal with the election. So 389 00:23:10.880 --> 00:23:12.799 for now, for the next hour and a half, we're 390 00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:14.279 going to talk about the election. But I want to 391 00:23:14.319 --> 00:23:17.519 frame the question for you. If you're a Trump supporter 392 00:23:18.680 --> 00:23:23.119 and you could advise your candidate Nikki Haley on the 393 00:23:23.200 --> 00:23:24.880 campaign trail for the next. 394 00:23:24.799 --> 00:23:27.160 Three days, yes or no? What say you? 395 00:23:27.759 --> 00:23:34.079 If you're a Harris supporter, do you worry or are 396 00:23:34.119 --> 00:23:36.720 you so convinced that Donald Trump's ego will not permit 397 00:23:36.839 --> 00:23:38.559 this that it does it. 398 00:23:38.680 --> 00:23:40.279 It's not even on your radar screen. 399 00:23:40.359 --> 00:23:42.640 We'll be back on Night's side six one, seven, two, five, 400 00:23:42.680 --> 00:23:45.839 four ten thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty. 401 00:23:46.119 --> 00:23:49.960