Speaker 1: What a beautiful Sunday morning, NFL Week three, guys, I
am Kelly in Vegas, filling in for the wonderful aeril
EPs seen. You guys know her as the prop Queen.
She'll be here most Sundays, but the Sunday she's not.
You guys are stuck with me. Yesterday was an eventful
college football Saturday. Let's see if Sunday lives up to
the hype. We're gonna bring in VR. We're gonna bring
in Ralph Michaels. We've got John Murray coming in and
Brian Power bat and clean up for us. They're in
the fourth seat, VR, welcome on in. I know we
got a quick segment with you this morning because you're
off to the steam room.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah yeah.
Speaker 3: And we got a lot of information, a lot of
games to go through and real quickly. The only question
I keep seeing it everywhere, man, They ask me on
social media as well, what are the needs?
Speaker 4: What is the public going?
Speaker 1: What does the book need? Guys, the book doesn't need anything.
They just need to open their doors.
Speaker 3: We're laying eleven to ten, so we're already taking the
worst of bit and then on top of it, Summer
Lane minus one, twelves minus one, thirteens minus one, fifteen.
They're parlaying same game parlays. They're teasing teams, not numbers.
Like the needs of the books shouldn't be all that
concerned about, because again, the books do just fine week
in week out, month in month out, And you know,
fading the public isn't a recipe for success, It just
isn't real Quickly, here's what we have if you do
want to know the public sides, here's the five heaviest
public signs Houston, Dallas, Rams, Saints, and Indianapolis. Now that
what sticks out a lot are the Rams the Jets
in Carolina. Those are three dogs that are getting bet
by the public. That's correct, The Rams the Jets in
Carolina all have more action than the favorite side, which
is rare in the NFL. And when it comes to
the Rams side, it's like seven out of every ten
bets are on the Rams, and even the jetss close
to seven out of ten and over six out of
ten on Carolina. So those big dogs look like they're
the public signs today. Again, they're oppice. They like Houston,
they like Dallas, they like the Saints, they like Indianapolis.
Some of the sharper signs today Ram Raiders, Raiders. They
started betting the Raiders. We talked about that earlier in
the week. They took the look Ahead. They bet it
all the way down the plus three and a half
that's where I released it. Two subscribers. They also did
bet the Rams, so that's a public and that's a
sharp side as well. They got three and a half
on the Rams. They took Houston Houston at plus two,
but they also bet Jacksonville in the first half, first quarter,
first half they got Denver, Denver plus the three Saints
plus the seven, Chicago plus the one, San Francisco minus
the one and a half, and money line, and then
they bet Detroit on Monday night. That was some of
the steam that came in. But keep your eyes on
odds logic or at the very least the wager talk
God screen, because they're gonna see a lot of movement
over the next sixty minutes, a lot of the manipulation
that happened early when limits are low, you're going to
see the real signs come in probably over the next
sixty minutes. So pay attention to those late line moves.
Speaker 1: Really quickly. Guys, if you want to join VR on
the steam Room, you do have to be a client,
but we're also opening it up to those Wager Talk insiders,
WT Dot Buzz, Backslash insider to join two ninety nine
a month right now, and you get all these fun emojis,
you get insider access, specialty videos and things like that.
Plus it's the steam Room VR. One of the things
I like to ask you about early in the week
on bat on It when we're together is some of
these teaserspots. So as of Wednesday, we had the bucks,
we had the cards, we had the Broncos, we had
the packers, the cowboys were available to be teased. And
then of course I think the whole world is going
to tease Seattle today, and I kind of don't blame them.
The bucks are no longer in that long the cowboys
are no longer in that long. Let's talk about that's
why you wait, as well as what you're going to
play today.
Speaker 3: That's exactly why I wait until as late as possible
on Sunday, because I want the line to be as
efficient as possible. I need it to be sharp, because
that is the highest probability that the game lands near
the number, and if it lands near the number, our
teasers cash. That's the whole point of having the teaser
as of right now. If if the games were going
off in ten minutes, me and my subscribers would only
have one teaser in play, we would have Arizona Arizona
plus seven and a half, and then where was that
other one and a half?
Speaker 1: There was one more than I saw, so we wouldn't
use We wouldn't tease the Seahawks down, or we wouldn't
tease the Packers.
Speaker 3: No, not yet, not yet, no, no, no, only because it's
seven and a half even money, I'm seeing seven minus
one point fifteen.
Speaker 1: We want it painted across the board.
Speaker 2: We want to be able to Raiders.
Speaker 1: Look wannable, Patriots look wannable.
Speaker 3: Yeah at one and a half, see even the Patriots
are one.
Speaker 1: It was at Arizona. Yeah, Texans possibly move into one
and a half in some shops.
Speaker 3: And that's the Key's got to be patient and can't
force it.
Speaker 2: If it's not there, it's not there.
Speaker 1: That's why we've done so well.
Speaker 3: We've only had what's it called five the first week,
four out of five cash. We only had one last
week that one cash, So if it's not available, we're
just not going to fire. But hopefully we got time.
We got almost two hours. We're gonna get some one
and a half's out there, cal We'll get some one
and a half. We'll probably get a seven and a
half as well. Across the board. We'll have some teasers
in line.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, as VRE mentioned, a little less than two hours
before kickoff, Guys, if you have a question for Ralph
or Brian Power, John Murray dropping in the chat, but
we're gonna let VR give himself a little promo, get
him out of here because he's got a lot of
work to do between now and kickoff.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you head on over to my social media,
you'll see updated results. Number one in college football in
twenty twenty five, Number two in the NFL regular season
twenty twenty five, Number one football combined.
Speaker 1: Told you what was happening in twenty twenty five. If
you're betting this.
Speaker 3: NFL in college football season, you're going to want to
know what we're bent in each and every week. Plus
you get the steam room with that which is coming
up today, we'll be leading into kickoff, answer all your questions,
go through every game, and let's just keep crushing it
in college football and the NFL keep doing damages. We
await the MLB playoffs. Wish you guys all the best
of luck today. Beat the books.
Speaker 1: That is the plan. That is why we're all here.
We want to beat the books. Last question from Alex
really quickly. Do I come back on the Bears plus
seven and a half teaser if I've already got the
Cowboys and shoot for a big middle? My answer is yes,
that is what I plan to do here after the
show if that is still available. VR. Do you agree.
Speaker 3: Yeah, If he's just playing teasers that are or plus CV,
then you have to fire it. Like if you're only
teasing the sides you like, it's a different story if
they fall under those numbers, But if you're teasing just
the numbers, then you got to take it absolutely and
we hope.
Speaker 2: You hit that middle. It's a great middle.
Speaker 1: It is a great middle. Let's hope we do hit that.
I was lucky enough to hit one with Bears ray
or excuse me, Bill's Ravens that first Sunday night, So
we're gonna try to run that one back at Greek
Underscore Gambler on all your social media channels except for TikTok.
You got to add the seven there on the end.
If her puts out a lot of great free content
here on wager Talk, so we thank him for that.
All right, guys, the stat daddy. Oh I got my
glasses from beat On. Its still sitting here because I
never wear them, even though they're supposed to be good
for your eyeball. So I better put them on because
we've got Ralph michaels in. Hi, Ralph, good morning. I
know that it is busy here for you before kickoff
on Sunday mornings, but you put out some really great
trends and angles for this week, so I want to
kind of dive into that. We're going to take some
questions from our audience between now in the next ten
ish minutes before John Murray gets here. So if you
guys have a question for Ralph at cal Sports LV
is his social handle Welcome in, Ralph. You didn't tell
me Ariel wasn't gonna be here. I'm sorry. I you know, listen,
we got more viewers when she's on Shocker. I know,
so I don't like to swell the alert. I gotta
make you guys, hang out with me every once in
a while so that she can go celebrate the holidays
with her family, Ralph. This week's TNA was loaded with
a lot of data. Oh and two teams. Well, we've
got two oh and two teams that play each other tonight.
We've got the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the New
York Giants. Something has to give in this one. Well,
let me just go over ted.
Speaker 5: If you guys watch bet On at the extended version,
I do a TNA college football and NFL each week,
or go to YouTube TV Wader Talk YouTube and you
will see those.
Speaker 1: But I just want to.
Speaker 5: Mention a couple of things. So many people I talk
to say, oh, two teams back at home, they're desperate,
they're gonna cover. Well, let me tell you this. In
the last seven years, oh two home favorites forty four
percent O two home dogs forty eight percent. On the
flip side, if you are OHO and two and you're
an away dog, you are twenty seven and fourteen against
the spread. That's Houston, Miami, the Jets, and New Orleans.
But what happens if we have two oh and two
teams like Kansas City and the New York Giants. Well,
now we have desperation on both sides of the field.
Since two thousand, Since nineteen ninety three, Kelly, there's only
been thirty four games with two oh and two teams
like Casey and the Giants. The over under is twenty
three ten and one seventy percent to the over if
it's a single digit line, So no double digit favorites
double digit dogs. And does it make sense to me
one hundred percent? You are gonna open the playbook, you
are gonna try some trick plays, You're likely going to
go for it on fourth down if the game's close
at the end. Add all those up. This two O
two over system makes complete sense to me.
Speaker 1: All right, if you guys have a question for Ralph,
drop it in the chat.
Speaker 3: Ralph.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of these other oh and two
teams today. Do are we blindly betting some of these
oh and two teams or what should we be looking
for for additional criteria in order to make a wager
on them? I hand up. I already bet the Saints.
It was my best bet on bet on it. I
already bet the Browns. That was my barking dog. This
Packers team has Dallas Sunday Night football on deck. Just
gotta go in and beat the lowly Browns is all
they're looking to get away with. I did tease them
as well, but I do think the Browns are live.
As a Cleveland guy, is this an oh and two
team you're looking at this week?
Speaker 5: Well, there is no more of a false oh and
two team than the Cleveland Browns. We're talking about the
number one defense in the NFL. Here, what do they do?
They gave up specialty teams touchdowns, they gave up defensive touchdowns.
The Browns allowed Cincinnati one hundred and forty one yards
and eleven first downs. They got to Baltimore and they
allowed forty one points. Well, guess what they were minus
two turnovers. They allowed Baltimore two hundred and forty two yards. Yeah,
let me repeat that. Baltimore scored forty one points on
two hundred and forty two yards. I do like Cleveland,
but you know what, Green Bay is also the number
one defense as far as yards per play, And you
look at the offenses they've played. It's not like they've
played Carolinas or New Orleans, Cincinnati and Baltimore. For Cleveland,
Detroit and Washington. Awesome offenses for the Packers and the
Browns who they faced in this game. With the Browns
and the Packers, I actually like the under first half.
That is a client release. Draftings had twenty one and
a half. Most places had twenty and a half. So
the Browns are a home team. Remember that does not
fit into the category. Those home dogs are actually a
negative better. But of the away dogs that are row
to two teams, clearly my favorite is Houston.
Speaker 1: But again even.
Speaker 5: Their profile is a little bit tight with the offense
the way they've struggled the first two weeks.
Speaker 1: All right, Ralph looking for some questions here? Yes, I
have the glasses on because Ralph is here. Guys. Let's
see Ross is killing it with Ralph and Joe. Yes,
you guys can check out the Wayger Talk leader board
anytime you guys want. If you guys also would like
to see where Okay Chandler, Yeah yeah, yeah, this is
an NFL show. Hey, congratulations, Mario Cristobal does it again.
I'm so happy for him. Let's chat in November. Let
me get back to my train of thought the blitz. Yeah,
I mentioned you guys can see Ralph on the extended
version with TNA. He's also got his own playlist over
there with all the trends and angles for college football
and NFL on the Wager Talking YouTube channel. But every
single Thursday you can catch him and Brian Power and
Ross Benjamin on the Blitz college Football Top twenty five
games and of course some of those under the radar ones.
Daryl Bitton wants to know, Hey, guys, what do you
think of the Lions Ravens over Here's a real reality, Ralph.
I've been betting a lot of these primetime games under
the total. We've seen a lot of them start to
cruise under, with the exception of that Ravens Bills game
that went into the eighties. Talk to me about Detroit
at Baltimore. If there's a side do you like, and
then answer the question regarding the total.
Speaker 5: I don't like the side. But you know, I'm actually
looking at some notes from my son. He put this
out as a free play. You know, the totals fifty three,
so we have a high total. So what have NFL
totals done a fift year higher? They've hit fifty three
percent since twenty sixteen, so not a wild number. But
you don't have to be afraid to play them if
you like them. If a total is fifty year higher
during the first four games of the season, that percentage
just goes to fifty nine point four percent. The teams
are number one and number four on offensive yards per play,
and the defense is Kelly. Baltimore is number thirty one
in yards per game defense, Detroit is number twenty two
in defensive yards per play allowed, and teams off a
division win by twenty one points or more like Baltimore is.
They are eighty six and forty seven over under sixty
five percent to the over. I'm not gonna get to
the window on this over, but if you forced me
to give an opinion, there's only one way I could
go with these.
Speaker 1: Two offenses and these two defenses. Yep, I understand, Ralph. Okay,
Then when I follow backup on these oh and two,
why are owing to home dogs? Not a play on
versus oh and two road dogs? And then I want
to parlay that into the Jets at the bucks for
another question here from America returns.
Speaker 5: Well, they're forty eight percent home dogs. Oh two, home
dogs are forty eight percent. But again it is a
small sample size. It's only twelve and thirteen, so I'm
not telling you you can't.
Speaker 1: Play them, hope.
Speaker 5: Favorite like Chicago are actually forty four percent, so they're
much worse so Cleveland, Carolina, the Giants, and Tennessee all
fall into that category.
Speaker 1: But I don't blindly play them, Kelly.
Speaker 5: This isn't a strong enough trend, and the stample size
is too small, and things could happen to certain teams
throughout a season that they can just implode early.
Speaker 1: So this is not one of.
Speaker 5: Those Oh, I'm blindly gonna bet it like some of
the systems we've talked about, But clearly, if it's a
sixty six percent system on that away dog, it would
take a heck of a lot for me to play
the other side.
Speaker 1: That part.
Speaker 5: It does allow me to do knock off those teams
if I did like the other side.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about that Jets, oh and two
Jets team. They're at the box. Tyrod Taylor in his
starting time as a quarterback wherever he may have played,
is pretty sizable as an underdog, almost sixty eight percent, Ralph,
I saw a trend earlier on X. I apologize if
you don't have the exact numbers, but it was something
like twenty one and seven against the spread. Are we
looking towards teams that are owing to like the Jets
here on the road at the Bucks, Well, that's the
call you have to make.
Speaker 5: But one thing I'll say is this, Tyrod Taylor was
with this team last year, so it's an entirely different
thing to be a quarterback filling in now. Aaron Glenn's
brought in new system, but Taylor still is familiar with
the receivers.
Speaker 2: And with the O line.
Speaker 5: And since Justin Fields has only completed nineteen of thirty
three passes with a seven point four YPA and only
one touchdown pass, it really isn't that much of a
down braid because of the way the offense has struggled.
So I look at the situation and am I ready
to faye?
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay? The Week one win.
Speaker 1: Against Atlanta, who hit the dooink or it could have
been tied.
Speaker 5: They going to Houston again, a close game, three sixty
to two, sixty six yard edge.
Speaker 1: The defense has played well, So I am not on
the Jets.
Speaker 5: Because I do like what the Tampa Bay defense has done.
They're only allowing seventy seven yards per game and three
point three yards per carry. And the Jets did rush
for one eight two against Pittsburgh and one hundred against Buffalo,
so we know the Jets are gonna be run heavy.
But the Tampa Bay Bucks have proven to be a
strong D line and front seven here, so it's a
pass for me in this game.
Speaker 1: All right, Look at all of you guys joining new
members and or wader Talk insiders this morning. As I
mentioned two ninety nine to join wt dot Buzz backslash insiders,
I think we had almost seventy of you guys. So
you guys get a little look behind the wager Talk,
you know, realm if you will, you guys get specially
videos as well as the steam room. We're gonna have
some more stuff coming up for you guys who join
here shortly. All right, let's talk about one more game
you like, Ralph before we get you out of here.
John Murray should be here any minute to give us
a look behind that counter at the West Gate. Ralph,
give me a a bet for today that you think
our audience needs to be looking at maybe under the
Radar team. You know, we've heard a lot about Faid
the public We've got a lot of teams that I
think are getting a lot of hype early on. I'm
curious to see if there's a team that's nobody's talked
about this week.
Speaker 5: Well again, let me preface that this I'm giving you
now is nothing that I bet. But I did bet
the first half Cleveland Green Bay under either the twenty
one and a half or twenty and a half, So
that is an actual client released. You know another game
that I was looking at is San Francisco. I was
on them last week, and yes, you know we have
Mac Jones in for brock Perty.
Speaker 1: But last week am I right up? When I had
San Francisco.
Speaker 5: At the stains, I said, this Matt Jones situation is
going to be much like Baker Mayfield. He was a
starting quarterback, he was in a horrible system. He gets
out of the system. He has a quarterback guru, and Shanahan.
You have McCaffrey there. I think this line is way
too cheap. Remember San Francisco lost both games last year
at Arizona, all legitimate double revenge, and now they're basically
in a win situation. I do like San Francisco to
cash today against the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1: All right, San fran Ralph. That makes me nervous because
I did not wait until kick off. Shocker, while you're talking,
I was putting in some teezer bats.
Speaker 2: Listen.
Speaker 1: That's really why I'm here, guys. I'm just like working
behind the scenes, keeping you guys informed. Ralph Michael's at
cal Sports l V again Thursdays with Brian Power and
Ross Benjamin on the Blitz. You can catch all of
his TNA on the Mega show of bat On It
as well as its own standalone on the YouTube channel.
Ralph does a ton of free stuff on his page
wt Dot Buzz, Backslash RM. If you guys are into charts,
if you guys are in to old school Excel sheets
like I am, He's got it all ready for you guys,
So make sure you guys go give him a follow.
We're gonna bring in John Murray now and then we're
gonna back clean up with Brian Power. John Murray, Good morning,
Happy Sunday.
Speaker 4: You consider making teaser bets on your phone working behind
the scenes.
Speaker 1: Listen. First of all, it wasn't on my phone, it
was on my desktop.
Speaker 4: Second of all, working behind the scenes, I.
Speaker 1: Was actually doing the show.
Speaker 4: Of course, you're selfishly doing the show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kindly filling in for Ariel for the Jewish Holiday,
and then I'm like selflessly and selfishly doing the show
so that I can write down all the stuff from
John Murray. Last week, John Murray went seven and one
for you guys keeping track at all and saved my
Sunday because I went one and four in the Westgate
Super Contest. Just an abomination of place. I do have
one in common with the top five picks. By the way,
if you guys saw my tweet right now, one in
nine first two weeks top five selections at the Westgate
Super Contest.
Speaker 6: Woof what is the one you have in common? For
week three? The Saints so teeses the Saints. Okay, yeah,
I think the Saints has won. We saw some sharp
money on hold on, I'm pulling something up for you here.
Speaker 4: I'm working behind the scenes.
Speaker 6: I would say the two that have really gotten sharp
money in the last like forty eight hours would be Indianapolis.
Speaker 4: Indianapolis is all the way out to a five point favorite.
Speaker 6: In that game, we had respected money minus three and
yesterday minus four.
Speaker 4: And then I heard you.
Speaker 6: On the end of the last segment talking about the
forty nine ers game. We had a pretty respected player
take Arizona here yesterday. They bet it at plus two
and a half even money at San Francisco betting on
the Cardinals to get to three.
Speaker 4: You know, that does look like a.
Speaker 6: Good teaser spot too low total one and a half
point spread right now, I'd say those are the main two.
Speaker 4: Early in the week we did see money on New Orleans.
Speaker 6: Plus seven and a half, same side Kelly likes and
stop me if you've heard this before.
Speaker 4: They're betting the Jets again. That always bet the Jets.
Speaker 6: They took the Jets plus six and a half, Jets
with them the losers the Jets. That was such like
the like the pseudo wise Guy play last Sunday, if
you remember, everybody was they ran home against Buffalo. We
took so many bets on the Jets from like the
quasi sharp crowd. We actually needed Buffalo. I mean, of course,
it would have been better for us in the long
run if Buffalo had lost because of the moneyline parlays.
But when just the game, just looking at the one
game on its own, we were better off with Buffalo
because we had so many big bets on the Jets.
Speaker 4: Let's talk about.
Speaker 1: Those moneyline parlays. I know they have been really rough.
Last week. You gave Ariel seven plays and I think
four of them were sides, and you were like, hey, listen,
we just need one of these sides to win outright
to crush all the moneyline parlays. I think you guys
got three out of the four outright and all four
covered if I remember correctly. What are those sides for today?
Speaker 4: The side like a team that we would need to lose,
you mean, I mean.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like probably the survivor right. I think from a
survivor perspective and or money line teaser perspective.
Speaker 6: Number one is green Bay. Number one is definitely green Bay.
We'd love to see Cleveland win the game. We'd like
to see him cover. We'd love to see him win.
That would knock out the moneyline parlays, the teasers for
people like Kelly and there are survivor pools that didn't
use Green Bay. I'm sure they'd be happy about it.
I'd say that's number one. The other big one in
the morning I touched on already. There's a lot of
money on Indianapolis if Tennessee could win that game outright,
that would be very good for us. And in the afternoon,
I'd have to say, we'd like to see New Orleans win.
Speaker 4: New Orleans is And.
Speaker 6: Also, look at it, like we're talking here at eight
thirty in the morning in Las Vegas.
Speaker 4: That game starts at one oh five.
Speaker 6: There will be a lot more moneyline parlay and teaser
action over the course of the next one four and
a half five hours on.
Speaker 4: Seattle in that game.
Speaker 6: It's just right now, everyone's focused on the ten So
right now, what we care about the most is Cleveland
and Tennessee.
Speaker 1: So two weeks ago, as I was walking on my
dad's house, we were listening to you and Ariel on
the show, and you said, Hey, our biggest need is
this this total this Steelers Jets game over, and my
dad goes, all right, I love the under in that game.
So I just, you know, bet the over. What are
some of these totals? They dad?
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 1: I followed you, and it just so happened to me
that he loved the under, which just kind of showed
don't worry, Chandler. My dad's been all over the hurricanes
this year. He texted me more than you do. He
was very impressed last night. I don't know why, but
he was so much.
Speaker 6: Yeah, total wise, I don't have a ton They did
play under in the Houston game, Houston against Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: There was a little bit of sharp money on Houston
in that game as well.
Speaker 6: But nothing nothing like what we're talking about from week
one where we did really need that total we'll need.
We'll probably be rooting for the Lake game to go under,
and I think that so we didn't talk about that
game that will probably end up being the biggest money
line need of the day. No, No, I'm sorry Giants
Sunday night, Sunday night, I'm sorry. Right now, it's Green
Bay Cleveland, but that game is, you know, hours and
hours away, and depending on how the games go this
morning and this afternoon, depending on how many parlays and
teasers are live to Kansas City tonight, the Giants.
Speaker 4: Could very well end up being our biggest need of
the day of the week. And we do need the
game to go under as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like those unders, and Kansas City unders have
been really good as of late as well. John Murray,
you are such a trooper. I know you're very busy
on Sunday, So thank you for hanging out with me.
I know I'm not Ariel, but I tried my best
at Vegas. Murray on social media, you guys can catch
him every single Thursday on the Kellaian Murray Show with
Me of course, where I basically torture him for almost
an hour. It's wonderful. I highly recommend watching it here
on the Wager Talking YouTube channel. John Murray. Anything you'd
like to promote at the West Kate, I know you
guys are doing minus one oh eight yeah on sides
during game day, and then are we still doing minus
one oh five Sunday Night football?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Minus one await on all the NFL games, minus one
oh five Sunday night, Monday night, Thursday night, Thursday Night
as well. We're also doing We're doing food and beverage
specials for Mondays and Thursday nights. Beers are a dollar,
hot dogs are two dollars, VIP booths are two hundred,
vip pods are one hundred bucks for Mondays and Thursdays.
And we do have a good Monday night game this week.
We've got a really good Monday night game Detroit Baltimore.
Should be a good Win a mom.
Speaker 1: As a former bottle service waitress, I would I would
like to interject there. So the pod, you rent a pod,
and that is just a food and beverage minimum. You're
not paying for the table itself, right, So each person, essentially,
if you get a pod.
Speaker 4: You should have you should have done the promos. You
should have done the promo said of me. You're right, No,
you're right.
Speaker 6: It's a real distinction too. You're not paying two hundred
dollars to sit there. You've got to spend two hundred
dollars on food and beverage. I talked to a guy
maybe last Thursday or last Monday. He was just sitting
in one of the pods. We told him what it costs,
and he's like, okay, that's fine, and he just spent
one hundred bucks, him and a buddy. You know, it's
really very manageable. If you're two or three people and do.
Speaker 1: You like to drink eight dollar Margarita's like me, like, it's.
Speaker 4: Just oh, hey, you know what for you? You know,
for you now they're doing two ninety nine espresso martinis
at the West.
Speaker 1: Oh no, that's not for me, that's not that's something
he would do. I would never drink an espresso martini
at the West Gate. I'm already too amped up as
it is. I do not need any more caffeine. I
would like to get to come there and watch games
again in the future. Espresso martinis would basically be my
nail in the coffin. They would be my demise, would
be in too much trouble security. Thanks for we appreciate
wear a mask there and I would wear the face
shield and they were like, that's not allowed.
Speaker 4: We appreciate that endorsement that our espresso martini deal would
be your demise. Thank you for that. We're probably gonna
have that quote on the marquee. That's right.
Speaker 3: I like that.
Speaker 1: I think it's a great idea, right along with the
John Murray bobbleheads that me and Ray ordered this morning.
All right, guys, enough preview of the Kelly and Murray Show.
We gotta get let John Murray get back to work.
There is over thirty five hundred of you guys watching
us live here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel, rumble
kick x Instagram, all of the above. All right, we're
gonna bring in Brian Power. He's gonna answer the rest
of your questions. Normally we go right up until kickoff
on Saturday, but we've gotten till one pm Eastern time,
so we've got We're just gonna let it go. As
long as you guys are asking questions, we're answer them.
Good morning, Brian.
Speaker 2: Power, Good morning, Kelly Stewart. How are you today?
Speaker 1: I'm doing very well. Ready to run through a wall
on this Sunday morning. I did have a shot of
espresso because I have to do End Zone Live with
the Press.
Speaker 2: After this I'll be on there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, great, I can't I can't wait. H So, in
case you didn't know, somehow I got logged into the
producer background of the video settings out, so just be
prepared for me to, you know, kick press off the
screen or hit the mute button or whatever.
Speaker 2: I so feel like I have a question. You just
ripped the espresso, martiniz to John Murray, your good friends, they're.
Speaker 1: Really bad for me. Do you want to see a
monster in like think about me on a margarita, think
about me on regular coffee, then put them together.
Speaker 2: Essentially, I've been spoken to you in slack before. I
know what that could be like. So yes, I mean
the first time.
Speaker 1: We met person was down at the d Yeah, right,
I was cheering against my bet and anyway.
Speaker 2: Oh I was not. I think you you ripped me
anyway for something else. I would never share against your bet, though,
but I was ripped for something and I'm sure I
probably deserved whatever.
Speaker 1: All right, check out all these new insiders, Jody, I'm
so excited WT Dot Buzz Backslash Insider two ninety nine
to join. You guys, get all sorts of extra benefits.
We're gonna do lots of private events for you, starting
with the steam Room coming up here in about forty
five minutes with VR, So you guys check that out.
Brian Power, host of the Blitz You, Ralph, Michaels, Ross Benjamin.
I'm so glad we decided on this trio. It has
been doing so well. You guys have been crushing college football.
So if you guys are looking for free college football picks,
right over there on the Wayger Talk YouTube channel, also
on any Spotify, Apple, anywhere you like to listen to
your podcasts, you can catch them there. All right, let's
answer Adam's question, any big favorites we think might lose
outright today? Silvin had anyone lose minus three and a half.
Maybe it's Atlanta, maybe it's Indy. Hopefully it's Green Bay
because I love the Browns. And hopefully for survivor it's
Seattle Brian Power. This has been an interesting trend because
it has been circulating social media twelve and oh since
week eleven nine and oh since week thirteen last year.
This year, none of these favorites are losing. I was
gonna ask John Murray because they've been getting crushed on
the money line Parlace, but I didn't want to ruin
his morning, so I'm gonna ask you.
Speaker 2: Okay, if I had to pick one, I would say
the favorite that could lose out right would be the Buccaneers,
who have been living quite the charm life. I know
every one of the comments section on my videos, you know,
loves to clap back at me about Baker Mayfield, how
tough he is, the grit, the heart. Whatever I look
at Baker Mayfield, I see a guy Kelly that has
the highest number of turnover worthy throws in the NFL
this year, and opposing defensive backs of Tampa Bay this
year have proven why they're not wide receivers because they
can't catch the balls. That Baker Mayfield is throwing directly
to him. This is a guy who's had six dropped
interceptions this year. I mean, and a lot of these
are just hitting the guys right in the hands. I
can't believe they're not picking them off. So there's two underdogs,
and I see a lot of people in the chap
bringing them up, the Jets and the Titans. I think
if you like the Jets or the Titans this week, Kelly,
I would sprinkle a little bit on the money line
because perhaps I'm overthinking this. Okay, overthought things before in
the past. But I think if you're betting on either
of those teams, you're betting the favorite. You're betting them
because you think the favorite is going to regress, they're
due to drop one. You don't believe in the favorite. Certainly,
Tampa Bay could just as easily the ohe and two
as they are too. And oh, I mean, they've stolen
both games out of the fire late with game winning
drives and with Indianapolis. I think there's a sense is
this team for real? I mean, let's go back three
hundred and sixty five days ago, Kelly. At this time,
the New Orleans Saints last year were two and up.
A spoiler alert for those who may have missed the
end of the twenty twenty four NFL season. They did
not do so well the rest of the way, so
we shall see. With the Colts, I kind of think
maybe by default they could be the AFC South winner there.
But I think if there's going to be a big
upset in the NFL today, it would be my first
pick would be the Jets, even with Tyron or the
Titans would be number two.
Speaker 1: Ooh right, Well, in my household, I took the Bills
because I'm a giant. You know what. On Thursday night
and I said, listen, I had Denver, I had the Cowboys,
like I just need it easy. It wasn't easy, but
it was much easier than the other two weeks. I
will take it never once once. I really afraid the
Bills are going to lose that game. Yes, up a touchdown,
Miami is driving to a turnover, whatever I was terrified of.
This week. My boyfriend elected to use both bucks, not one,
not diversify. I used both bucks. I told him, I said, hey,
I'm doing End Zone Live with the Press. You're gonna
go one to go watch with your survivor partner at
his house because I'm cheering for chaos today, like I
want Week three just obliteration, blood bath. I want all
the favorites to lose.
Speaker 2: And here's the thing with Okay, that's that's good. And
there are a lot of ugly dogs. I tweeted right
before we went on that, you know, if anyone wants
to check out the Power five before I have some
ugly dogs, I go over there as well. I talked
about both the Titans of the Jets on there, and
what's interesting, Kelly is I think there's a lot of
volatility in both of those situations, where again maybe I'm
overthinking things, guys. I think you look at the Titans,
you look at Jets this week, it's either they win
outright or they get blown out. I don't think the number.
I was talking to someone this morning and we both
kind of came to the conclusion, I don't know if
the number matters in either of those situations. It's either
the dog comes in pulls the outright upset or that
the dog gets blown out of the water. Because I
can't see Tampa Bay winning another close game. Well, that's
just what they've been doing.
Speaker 1: Right like, So, I've been living in Tampa for the
last four years and I've been a ton of Bucks games,
and it seems like you're right. Like either the dog
convincently wins out right. The Denver Broncos game comes to
mind from last year. I think there were seven and
a half point underdogs right around this time. Week two,
Week three, Week four goes into Tampa and wins outright
convincingly wire to wire, or I've been to those Tampa
games where it's just last minute touchdown drive Baker is
I'm not gonna call him elite, but Baker has clutch moments, right,
and I want to give him credit for that. But
most importantly, I like this Bucks defense. I think if
they can get Tyrod Taylor to turn the ball over
a couple of times, they should be in the driver's
seat in this game. But it is just one of
those very fishy lines, right like, as somebody who loves
to tease the NFL, why isn't it seven and a half?
Why is it six and a half? I don't know?
Speaker 2: And the other thing too, And I heard John Murray
point this out in the segment before everyone was betting
the Jets last week. I bet the Jets last week.
That was not a good thing me. The only thing
that was good about that bet, Kelly, It's one of
those ones you could give up ten minutes in because
you knew it was dead in the water. That's way
I've always said that that I would rather lose a bet.
If I'm going to lose a bet, I would just
rather know it's dead in the water ten minutes in
than have my heart broken at THEA like I did
yesterday in the New and Eastern window with Miami Ohio.
I don't even want to discuss what are you kidding me?
Speaker 1: Did you not watch the end of the Nevada game?
Right here on my handy dandy list, Art and I
were talking about the Nevada game. I thought, Okay, I'll
bet the Nevada game. I got plus ten. It closed
eight and a half and guess what it was going
to be? Fine kicked the field goal on sidekick, and
I'm like, the app is broken again because the app
had previously told me earlier that West Virginia had scored
a touchdown when they hadn't. So I'm frantically so I'm like, oh,
the app's broken. It's one o'clock in the morning. The
app's broken.
Speaker 2: Nope, scoop and score with.
Speaker 1: Eight seconds lat listen, I'm tired of have my gutstripped out.
I am absolutely with you. I'd rather just lose.
Speaker 2: I would lose, I would, of course, we would all
rather just win. I think is the moral of this story,
which I think we need to do. You know, I
saw somebody asking about the Bears in the chat with
a lot of people. I think you said this earlier,
I'll tease the Bears. I gave that out as half
of I Get Bears and the Broncos. Actually is a
four pm teaser. I'm gonna go with there.
Speaker 4: You can do that.
Speaker 2: I think there's only a couple of spots where you
can do the Bears as a teaser right now, so
shop around. But I don't know. I think those will
be two close games. I know the Bears look so
bad last week, and I know their secondary is not
in good shape, but I don't think the Cowboys should
be favored the.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a tough game. It was just one of
those fishy lines. When it first came out, I saw
a lot of people asking about it, and I thought,
you know what, this is just not something for me.
I did tease Dallas early. I am going to teach
Chicago late. I think this is a coin flip game.
But we'll see. I know Marko likes to talk about
divisional sandwiches and trap games and things like that. I
will say Dallas has Green Bay on deck.
Speaker 2: They'll be interested in that, which which is another reason
to I think a lot of people like Cleveland right
Green Bays off the two wins over playoff teams from
last year, Detroit and Washington. Now they play a Cleveland team.
My wife is downtown right now, tailgating, and I will
I'm sure. I'm sure she knows. I'm sure I'm sure
she knows. Yes, I'm a very nice guy, but I'm
sure she knows. And I will let everyone else know.
Home underdogs of seven or more the first nine weeks
of this regular season eighteen one and two against the
spread the last three seasons.
Speaker 1: I wait, I need that again.
Speaker 2: I need that's per bet Labs. By the way, I
don't want to home underdogs. Home underdog seven or more
first nine weeks to the regular season the last three
years are eighteen one and two against the spread. Cleveland
Brown's first one to qualify the ship.
Speaker 1: Okay, Noted wrote it down. I'm gonna steal that. Yeah,
I do like the Browns Titan. CT wants to know
what your thoughts are on this Raiders team. Here's kind
of what starts to happen. BP is like, we all
see you, right, so Sunday there's even if you have
read zone, you miss half of the games.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: It's impossible to fully watch all of these games outside
of just looking at the box score when they're these
standalone Monday night games like we saw the Chargers Raiders
last week. We all saw the Raiders, right, Gino Smith.
I think it was three interceptions and then I was like,
I'm going to bed. This is dumb. I have no
reason to stay up. I have no action on this game.
I do like to look at teams that looked really
awful the previous week, but I think the Raiders might
have looked too awful.
Speaker 2: And here's the other issue. This is a horrific scheduling
spot for the Raid. You talk about how bad they
looked on Monday. Okay, well it's a short week because
they played on Monday. And what do the Commanders do.
I know that you know they're turning into a backup quarterback,
but they haven't played since Thursday. I believe that there's
only been a couple instances of this where you have
a tea and the Raiders are going east, so one
pm start this is one of the worst scheduling spots
of the year that the Raiders are in short week
one pm start time for the West Coast team. I
think there's only been two instances of this where a
West Coast team's playing at one pm on a short
week facing a team with ten days rest like the
Commanders and Neat, and there's only been like the two
instances of the last decade. Both of the previous instances
did not cover and did not come close to covering.
I can maybe look that up before I signed.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely look that up BP. While we're kind of
talking about this. That is interesting because I think the
old adage of West Coast teams traveling east is kind
of subsided, right with it has a little bit yeah, right,
as we've seen it over the years, like in the seventies,
in the eighties, in the nineties it was a thing.
Now teams sometimes stay on the East Coast the whole time.
Like I was looking to see if the Rams and
ended up staying or not right, things like that. So
this is an interesting rest versus you know, kind of
a short travel week if you will, for the Raiders.
So very good point there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: Obviously these teams are not traveling on horse and buggy
by any stretching imagination, but here it is teams with
six days rest vers ten days rest. Last twenty five years,
just five and eleven against the spread. But then if
you take the team that's going West playing at one pm,
they're zero to two ats. The last twenty five years
they've lost, they failed to cover by nineteen and seven points.
So this is only the third time that we've had
a team like the Raiders in this spot, short week,
one pm West Coast against the team that's played either
off the bye or on Thursday.
Speaker 1: All right, Brian Power, we've got about eight minutes left
to answer any questions in the chat. Let me know
what you've got going over at wagertalk dot com today.
I know you mentioned, I mentioned you guys have the
blitz out from yesterday, so make sure next Thursday you
guys catch them live one pm Eastern here on the
Wager Talking YouTube channel. You're also doing the Power five.
But now the baseball season's wrapping up. What days can
people expect the Power Five?
Speaker 2: Well, what a let's make this announcement formally. Okay, good,
you're such a person that can allow that to be
made formally.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So, guys, this next upcoming week is gonna be the
final week of the Power Five as a daily show because,
as Kelly elloquickly pointed out, baseball's winding down in those
first couple weeks of October. Guess what, guys, there's often
there's not five games to bet on during the week.
There's usually just maybe a standalone football game, a couple
of playoff games. So what the Power five is going
to do for the rest of the football season. You're
gonna get a midwek version of the Power Five focusing
on the key line moves in football, and then there's
a weekend edition where you'll get five plays that just
missed my card. So the Power Five is not going away,
It's just gonna go to two times a week. That
is starting next week. This week, we're still doing every
day except tomorrow because there's not enough games short Major
League Baseball slate, so Power five will still be going hard.
The Blitz is still going hard. I'll be on ends
alive with you in pres here coming up. And of
course what everyone needs to know is I have two
that's for Sunday in the NFL currently posted at my
page wt Dot Buzz Slash BP only went two and
two over all on Saturday, Kelly. I was very disappointed.
Again it should have been three and one, but Miami
Ohio I thought they were the right side. They gagged
it late to UNLV. I think Dan Bullen's UNLV is
a complete fraud, one of the worst four and oh
teams in recent memory. However, well it was just two
and two yesterday. We are already a winner on Sunday, Kelly,
And that, of course can only mean one thing. Your
favorite soccer was a winner. I will not dive deep
into the aston Villa Sunderland match, and God, please fear
that you will beat me. But I said both teams
to score, and they did in fact four all year.
What are they going to go the whole year without
scoring a goal? Give me a break?
Speaker 1: Oh boy? All right, Paul, and soon now our opinions
on Houston Jacksonville. I was on Jacksonville plus three and
a half. Last week you mentioned bad beats. That was
a rough one for me.
Speaker 2: Same old Jaguars.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and here's this Houston zero to two team going
on the road. Fits that system Ralph Michael's talked about,
fits what you were speaking about. Kind of break down
this game. If you have an opinion here, let us know.
Speaker 2: So I want to tease the Texans. I did, okay,
And because again I kind of have this mental quandary
on a lot of games this week, and this is
one of them. Before the year, I was high on
the Jaguars team. I thought they were gonna win the
AFC South and then I see what they do last
week and I'm like, it's the same old Jaguars. That's
a game you need to win. If you're gonna make
that leap to a plant team, you have to beat Cincinnati.
When Joe Burrows lost injury at Jake Brown and comes
in and throws multiple interceptions, you have to win the
game you were winning. What are you doing? Houston is
desperate at all in too, but god, Kelly, they're a
tough watch. This offensive line in Houston stinks. It is
it has to be the worst offensive line in the
entire National Football League. So my take is, I guess
just tease the Texans. They are in a desperate spot
the oh to two teams. Obviously, I'm sure all of
our fine viewers have been hearing about all and two
teams all week, not just on this show, but you
know all the other great shows we do on wager Talk.
I think if it's oh to two straight up versus
one and one percent, that's like the real sweet spot.
And that's what we have here with the Texans being
oh and two, Jaguars being one and one, I think
it's like forty and eleven against the spread or something
like that. So I would tease the Texans is kind
of my only play here, but I don't feel great
about it. Did not make my card because again I
thought the Jaguars were gonna be better than Houston. I
don't think Houston's winning this game.
Speaker 1: All right, here's a game from Joe Madden. She wants
to talk about the Broncos versus Chargers. I guess that
would be my team versus her team. Even though I've
kind of written this team off old since the last
Super Bowl, so for the last decade, I haven't really cared.
I did hover put the Broncos helmet up there that
is signed, because it's better than the case State one.
I shoved way up on top because I got the
k State football field behind me and they're kind of
on my shit list.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about it.
Speaker 1: I did early in the week. I broke vurs a rule.
I put the Broncos in a couple of teasers early,
and now they're plus three and they fall out of
that teaser rome. This is a divisional matchup that again.
Chargers looked really good on Monday night against the Raiders,
Broncos losing heartbreak, thank god, because I had the Colts
plus one. Thank god the Broncos loss I game on.
I'm so happy that a bad call went my way.
I will take it and run. But teams off good losses,
if you will. Was that a good loss? Would you
call that a weird loss?
Speaker 2: A loss? You know it was actually deserved because if
you looked at the again, if you look at the
box score, the Colts out gained the Broncos of that game.
I mean, I thought Daniel Jones again, I think we're
all waiting to see if he turns into a pumpkin.
That was probably the best game Daniel Jones ever played
last week, and it was against the Denver defense. Kelly, that,
as you know, was number one and EPA per play
last sea. I thought the Broncos defense would take a
little step back this year, simply because you can't do
any better than number one, can you? Guys? But you
alluded to throwing the Broncos in a teaser earlier in
the week. I have done the same in that game.
Very interesting spot here, Kelly, with the Chargers opening the
year with three straight division games and there are on
a short week. Two guys, remember there's four teams on
a short week after the money that football double Ladder
in case you were wondering teams to open the season
with three straight division games like the Chargers are here today.
They have gone just two and five straight up one
and six ats in Week three the last twenty years,
bailing to cover the spread by ten points per game.
And bow Knicks I'm assuming you know this as well, Kelly.
In a six point tease in his career in the
regular season, if you just teased every bow Nicks line,
you'd be eighteen and one. The Broncos don't get blown
out right. So I think they've only lost two games
by double digitsince Nicks became to start, and one was
the playoffs against the Bills.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that would make sense, all right, I will take it.
I guess as a pseudo Broncos fan. Shout out to Ace,
he's a new member, just joined wager Talk Insider. We're
gonna have some great stuff coming up for you guys
over the next couple of weeks. Brian Power has got
some great stuff for us. So leave us with a banger.
Give us a winner, Brian Power. After yesterday's kind of
smu Nevada, those wonky ugly losses that you had. Yes
k State even lost yesterday on to bye. Thank you Mac. Yeah,
that was a tough day for your girl. All right,
Brian Power, give me a w What do I need
to be betting here on this beautiful Sunday morning.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll call my shot. Let's let's go something that'll
either make me look really smart or really dumb.
Speaker 3: What do you say?
Speaker 2: That's why we come out these programs, right, Let's go
Jets out right over the Buccaneers. I'm sick of Baker Mayfield.
I'm sick of Tampa Bay. I'm sick of them stealing
games late New York Jets to beat Tampa Bay outright. Look,
we were all betting the last week an'st Buffalo. I
don't care how many late games Tampa Bay wins. Buffalo's
better team to Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Well, almost five thousand people on whatever platform they're watching
on just heard you say that. So I'm gonna pray
for you.
Speaker 2: Hey, hey, hey, let me tell you something I've I've
already lived through it. I know how this works. You know,
I live through you know, telling calling the Indiana Pacers
the worst team in NBA Finals history, and everyone and
everyone in the city, everyone in the state of Indiana
that ever rooted for the Pacers found me. And it's
a very nasty thing.
Speaker 1: And you got very famous on TikTok for about two
and then you got yourself.
Speaker 2: Well, I wouldn't say they got there. It was a
little close.
Speaker 1: I remember.
Speaker 2: I remember walking upstairs telling my wife, I said, walking
upstairs and telling my wife, I said, Tyrese Halibert just
tore his a cl She goes, what does that mean?
I said, it means we say nothing, and we just
sit back and we say nothing. We got it. But yeah,
let's see, Jets. Let's call our shot here, Jets out
right over the Buccaneers. This Buccaneers team is so fraudial,
down three wide receivers, possibly three offensive linemen, offensive defensive players.
Baker's not one und either Byrod Taylor.
Speaker 1: All right, so I'm thinking we're gonna do a little
three team moneyline parlay. My brain just is just kind
of like, you know, just for fun again. I got allers.
Speaker 2: I knew with all these ugly dogs that this conversation
Kelly was gonna lead somewhere, uh irresponsibly. But I like it.
Speaker 1: All right, So Jets say it's Browns. Are we doing it?
Speaker 2: What would that? What is the pet?
Speaker 1: Okay? As a matter of fact, I've got this little
app on my phone that I can put it in
here at the hard Rock, and we're going to see
what that pays. Hold on it needs my face. Let's look,
Brian Power, let's look, we're gonna put this little guy together.
Just for a beautiful plus two seventy five plus three
point fifty and plus three three hundred, one hundred dollars
bet pays sixty six to one. Done, bang, Just put
that in hundred bucks sixty six to one. All right,
Brian Power, let's get rich today.
Speaker 2: Let's do it. Let's do it. Well, I guess what.
And the good news is, if you want to stick
with us here on the Way to Talk to YouTube
channel Enzo Live, you could see Kelly and I yell
about these games in the one pm Eastern time hour.
Speaker 1: Oh man, maybe we'll have us for Russo Martini.
Speaker 2: There we go, all right.
Speaker 1: Shout out to all of you guys that hung out
with us here on Sunday morning. Thank you to VR.
You guys can check them out on the steam room
right after this. Thank you to Ralph Michaels for all
of his trends and angles. Thank you to John Murray
from the Westgate tuber book for his look behind the counter.
And thank you to Brian Power, one of my favorite
guys that Way to Talk, for making this Sunday morning
so incredibly entertaining that now we have one hundred dollars
parlay on the three ugliest dogs on the board not
named the Titans. Good luck to all of you guys,
hope of a wonderful Sunday. We'll see you guys back
here in just a couple of hours. Yeah, I'll probably
pop on about two hours End Zone Live with the
Prez and Andy. We're gonna sweat out some of your
Survivor picks because mine made it through as well as
that sixty six to one to parlay at least the
first two legs. Happy Sunday, guys, and we'll see you
next week.