Speaker 1: And everyone was saying, oh, this is dip by time,
Speaker 1: definitely dip by time.
Speaker 2: Turned out they were dead wrong, and.
Speaker 1: We went all the way down, almost went below sixty
Speaker 1: k on that bloody day of February fifth. And yes,
Speaker 1: we rebounded slightly since then, tested like the sixty two
Speaker 1: to sixty three k range here before this big breakout,
Speaker 1: and yeah we're seeing some positivity.
Speaker 3: But hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm
Speaker 3: your host, Tony Edward and joining me today is Brian
Speaker 3: from Sentiment and as you all know, we're going to
Speaker 3: do a deep dive into the metrics around Bitcoin and
Speaker 3: the top all coins to get an idea of what's
Speaker 3: happening in the market. Brian, it's great to see you.
Speaker 3: And your shirt should be green, my friend, because it's
Speaker 3: a green day.
Speaker 1: I know, you know, you wake up and you expect
Speaker 1: it to be just like it's been the last few months,
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you get the color wrong
Speaker 1: for once.
Speaker 2: It's a happy mistake.
Speaker 1: I think we're all pretty excited to see a little
Speaker 1: bit of a breakout here, and you know, it's a
Speaker 1: relief in a literal sense, but also this relief rally
Speaker 1: comes when I think a lot of the crowd has
Speaker 1: kind of been writing off crypto for a bit as usual.
Speaker 1: It's a bit of a bear trap that's turned into
Speaker 1: a mild bull run. I wouldn't say bull run. I
Speaker 1: guess i'd say more of just a bullish trend for
Speaker 1: a day and a half or so that people are
Speaker 1: now pouring their money back into now that they're saying
Speaker 1: things move up for once.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is something I've been talking about for
Speaker 3: a while, that we are due for relief rally because
Speaker 3: we've been so oversold. The sentiment it has been extreme fear.
Speaker 3: People have given up on crypto. You know, some of
Speaker 3: the mainstream media. We're putting headlines out there, bigcoin still
Speaker 3: too high at sixty seventhing.
Speaker 2: That just the writing off crypto again.
Speaker 3: And we have often been talking the market does the
Speaker 3: opposite of the herd to a lot of people out
Speaker 3: there given up.
Speaker 2: They've turned negative.
Speaker 3: They started complaining about President trumpet crypto and you just
Speaker 3: see on the social media timeline.
Speaker 2: So it's it's funny how this all works.
Speaker 1: Yeah, whether it's coincidental or not, you know, it's up
Speaker 1: for debate. One thing we can say about the state
Speaker 1: of the Union from yesterday is he seemed to invoke
Speaker 1: a lot of confidence in the American economy, and we're
Speaker 1: seeing stock markets go up.
Speaker 2: I'll show the comparison of.
Speaker 1: The equities and cryptocurrencies in just moment. But everything is
Speaker 1: going up today at the time of this recording. It
Speaker 1: was even going up going into the State of the
Speaker 1: Union yesterday in terms of the stock markets, while crypto.
Speaker 2: Is kind of just staying flat.
Speaker 1: And we even put a report out about how you know,
Speaker 1: the further this correlation gets away, the more of an
Speaker 1: upside argument there is for crypto to catch up. And
Speaker 1: sure enough, you know, even though equities are doing well,
Speaker 1: stocks are up or the S and p's up maybe
Speaker 1: a little over one percent right now, bitcoins up like
Speaker 1: six percent, some old coin like Polka Dot up almost
Speaker 1: twenty five percent right now. So it does look like
Speaker 1: this is a crypto favorable run. It's not just a
Speaker 1: correlated run with stocks. This is the first time we've
Speaker 1: really seen crypto go up significantly above stocks, at least
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that makes sense because if you look at
Speaker 3: the price of gold, you look at the chart and
Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred and even the Nasdaq
Speaker 3: for that matter. You've seen bitcoin dev eight completely. It's
Speaker 3: so wild. So maybe here's the bit of the catchup, Right,
Speaker 3: we're so into dumps, so over sold that we're maybe
Speaker 3: going to have more upside than those on the markets potentially.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you just stew the last four weeks
Speaker 1: or so, you can see how, you know, stocks and
Speaker 1: teel here have kind of been flat, Gold's down just slightly,
Speaker 1: and then Bitcoin's just gotten hammered over the past four weeks,
Speaker 1: down almost lose almost a quarter of its market cap,
Speaker 1: But just over the past what call it a little
Speaker 1: over twenty four hours, it's up nine percent now, and
Speaker 1: that's enough to get people excited. Especially if we begin
Speaker 1: to test seventy K I would expect some cell walls
Speaker 1: around there to try to challenge it. But if it
Speaker 1: breaks through and we start seeing seventy one to seventy
Speaker 1: three k that range, expect a lot.
Speaker 2: Of foamo to really start to pour in. Absolutely.
Speaker 3: So how's the sense, Well, yeah, we can look at
Speaker 3: the price and then I would love to see what
Speaker 3: the sentiment is for bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, just briefly looking at the price changes, you
Speaker 1: can see pretty clearly I mentioned Polka Dot currently up
Speaker 1: about twenty three percent in the past twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: un to swap nineteen, Avalanche seventeen and a half, light
Speaker 1: Coin fourteen, chain Link fifteen, and then you got Bitcoin
Speaker 1: over here. Just in terms of twenty four hours up
Speaker 1: six and a half percent, it three him up ten
Speaker 1: and a half percent, and interestingly, so volume has not
Speaker 1: caught up. We actually saw way more discussion, especially among
Speaker 1: bitcoin and ethereum yesterday compared to today, so we'll see
Speaker 1: if that changes in the coming hours. I think the
Speaker 1: US is more or less woken up now and they're
Speaker 1: checking markets, so I wouldn't be surprised by the end
Speaker 1: of the day we.
Speaker 2: See some nice social volume boosts just.
Speaker 1: From you know, mainstream media starting to pick up stories
Speaker 1: talking about all of these big relief rallies that are
Speaker 1: currently going on.
Speaker 3: I wonder if there's also the factor of people don't
Speaker 3: believe it right, They're like, I don't trust this.
Speaker 2: We've been getting dumped on every time we lomp. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean just like there was when we first went
Speaker 1: below seventy k no one believed that it could actually
Speaker 1: go any lower, and then sure enough it does go lower.
Speaker 1: And now we get a relief rally and a bunch
Speaker 1: of people just want to take profit rather than.
Speaker 2: Start to fomo in and really start.
Speaker 1: To believe this is the beginning of the large your
Speaker 1: macro rebound. But yeah, let's take a look at sentiment here,
Speaker 1: because I saw going to bed last night that there
Speaker 1: was actually a huge jump in sentiment, which made me
Speaker 1: surprised when I woke up to an even further rally
Speaker 1: pushing towards seventy K. But when I looked going to
Speaker 1: bed last night, it was almost as high as what
Speaker 1: we saw in late January when everyone was kind of
Speaker 1: in denial. Like I mentioned, it was falling below ninety
Speaker 1: back at that time, fell below eighty five K, and
Speaker 1: everyone was saying, oh, this is dip by time, definitely
Speaker 1: dip by time.
Speaker 2: Turned out they were dead.
Speaker 1: Wrong, and we went all the way down, almost went
Speaker 1: below sixty K on that bloody day of February fifth.
Speaker 1: And yes, we rebounded slightly since then, tested like the
Speaker 1: sixty two to sixty three K range here before this
Speaker 1: big breakout, And yeah, we're seeing some positivity, but it's
Speaker 1: not to the degree that I would.
Speaker 2: Think, like I said, the day is still young.
Speaker 1: But this is enough FOMO to be a little concerned
Speaker 1: that the rally might have a little cap to it,
Speaker 1: but it may, you know, may not really cap until
Speaker 1: we see that seventy k test to see some limit
Speaker 1: orders get filled.
Speaker 3: Interesting, how does the MVRV look like for bitcoin? So
Speaker 3: I'm just going to open up our main template here.
Speaker 3: This is where you guys can see all of our
Speaker 3: top on chain metrics. So super useful going through some
Speaker 3: of these.
Speaker 1: But as we always do, Tony looking at MVRV on
Speaker 1: our call here, we're still seeing both the short and
Speaker 1: long term average trading returns in the negatives. It said
Speaker 1: pretty day mvrvs back up to about negative two and
Speaker 1: a half percent.
Speaker 2: Hasn't been that high since the end of January.
Speaker 1: I still like the fact that both lines are below
Speaker 1: zero in what's supposed to be a zero sum game
Speaker 1: for all different timeframes. So thirty day is still under
Speaker 1: barely three sixty five day is well well underwater at
Speaker 1: negative twenty nine percent. Still, so the upside is there
Speaker 1: for this this rally to continue. It just depends on
Speaker 1: things like whales and stuff, which we'll get into.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a very good sign that it's still down
Speaker 3: below they're not even touching neutral yet potentially some room
Speaker 3: for it to run here and maybe that's, you know,
Speaker 3: the relief rally. I know some traders are like I
Speaker 3: just had Garrett salwy On. He's saying, if we break
Speaker 3: certain levels, we could top out at eighty to eighty
Speaker 3: five K. And obviously that's a probability, it's not a certainty,
Speaker 3: but maybe that that would be that would be pretty
Speaker 3: nice to have that relief.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see it.
Speaker 1: And you know, the nice thing about MVRV is it's
Speaker 1: not always fluctuating the same way as prices because people
Speaker 1: are making flawed trading decisions all the time. They're fomoing
Speaker 1: in when they shouldn't, they're fighting in when they shouldn't.
Speaker 1: In fact, more often than not, they're doing what they
Speaker 1: shouldn't do. And that's I think the reason why despite
Speaker 1: this nine percent jump in a little over twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: we haven't seen this thirty day, why go back above
Speaker 1: zero percent? Because there weren't that many people buying the
Speaker 1: dip here. This was the point in which a lot
Speaker 1: of people were really starting to give up. If there
Speaker 1: was aggressive dip buying, who knows if we even have
Speaker 1: this little rally. But if we did see the rally anyways,
Speaker 1: it would have been enough for the thirty day MVRV
Speaker 1: to be way up here, and then we'd be a
Speaker 1: little more in risky range. But because of the disbelief,
Speaker 1: we still have more meat on the bone.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's, you know, the setup we've talked about
Speaker 3: so many times, ran ad nauseum, right, extreme fear, the
Speaker 3: crowd has given up and the market does the opposite.
Speaker 3: I know I repeat myself there, but I want to
Speaker 3: hammer it home so people understand that they have to
Speaker 3: be a contrarian to the herd. And then you know,
Speaker 3: maybe we can look at the whale data that's very telling. Yeah,
Speaker 3: so this is the part that I'm less about. There
Speaker 3: has not been any indication that Wales are starting to
Speaker 3: pile money back in. Like I said, we do this,
Speaker 3: We update this metric once a day, so there could
Speaker 3: be some signs once the market closes today that this
Speaker 3: green line has started to pick up steam. Maybe they've
Speaker 3: added I don't know, maybe something like three to five
Speaker 3: k bitcoin would be reasonable for a given day, but
Speaker 3: going into today, as of yesterday's close, they've been on
Speaker 3: the decline for quite a while here going back to
Speaker 3: January fifteenth, they've dropped a little over half a percent
Speaker 3: of the entire supply, which is a ton. We can
Speaker 3: look at it in absolutes, just so we have a
Speaker 3: precise number. Ten to ten thousand btc. This is the
Speaker 3: key group that owns a little over two thirds of
Speaker 3: the entire market cap, and they were holding thirteen point
Speaker 3: sixty eight million back in mid January and they've dumped
Speaker 3: a little over one hundred one thousand btc since. So no,
Speaker 3: they have not been like falling off a cliff in
Speaker 3: recent weeks, but it's still showing that they're moving in
Speaker 3: the wrong direction while retail has kind of flattened out.
Speaker 3: Like I said, they weren't too excited about this latest
Speaker 3: dip yere so they weren't buying it too much. But
Speaker 3: the long term trend still shows retail going up, key
Speaker 3: stakeholders going down, and that has to change in order
Speaker 3: for this rally to have a more sustained longevity to it. Oh,
Speaker 3: absolutely so hopefully Brian Fringer's cross. I'm gonna keep refreshing
Speaker 3: this data every day, and folks, you could go sign
Speaker 3: up for an account to you know, start viewing these things.
Speaker 3: But I'm hoping that number, the whale number starts taking.
Speaker 2: Upwards us too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is really one of the best
Speaker 1: metrics we have for just midterm alpha. If you're a
Speaker 1: swing trader, I mean, this one is going to be
Speaker 1: right up your alley, we promise.
Speaker 3: How about ethereum as far as sentiment and MVRV.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll start with ethereum because we already have it
Speaker 1: open here. This actually is a nice way of just
Speaker 1: looking at all of the thirty days thirty day mvrvs
Speaker 1: right next to each other.
Speaker 2: Just switch this to BTC.
Speaker 1: So we've got bitcoin in pink, We've got etherium in
Speaker 1: red Ardano, which you can see has blasted into positive range.
Speaker 1: He is about middle of the road right now, and
Speaker 1: chain link has also blasted into positive. But in terms
Speaker 1: of Ethereum, it's down about negative six percent still. It's actually,
Speaker 1: of these five assets, the one that has the most
Speaker 1: opportunity still because it's been so hammered over the past
Speaker 1: month or so, I mean, going back to January twenty
Speaker 1: eighth when it was at that local top, it's dropped
Speaker 1: about twenty four percent. So it's not a surprise to
Speaker 1: see ethereum still showing an average trading return of negative
Speaker 1: six percent over the past thirty days.
Speaker 3: Interesting to it certainly has some catch up to do,
Speaker 3: and you know, we'll see how this hardest relief rally goes.
Speaker 3: So some of these other leading all coins start out
Speaker 3: performing it, maybe eth will eventually catch up, but we'll
Speaker 3: have to wait and see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's definitely an argument for that, and
Speaker 1: there are some key players that are going to dictate
Speaker 1: whether Ethereum can go on another run the way it
Speaker 1: did last summer. And remember I remember doing a show
Speaker 1: with you around that time, Tony, where we talked about
Speaker 1: how much fud there really was toward Ethereum and how
Speaker 1: it's going to likely surprise people when it has a
Speaker 1: little bit of a breakout. Literally like within three days
Speaker 1: or so after our video, it went on this enormous run,
Speaker 1: doubled in market cap or something, and eventually we all
Speaker 1: kind of hit that all time high, or all the
Speaker 1: top caps kind of hit that same local top when
Speaker 1: Bitcoin hit their all time high in early October. But
Speaker 1: Ethereum had a great run in the middle of last
Speaker 1: year and then started to regress right around late January
Speaker 1: and has been one of the harder hit alt coins.
Speaker 1: So all that being said, I see that sentiment is
Speaker 1: kind of in mid range, maybe just slightly above that
Speaker 1: median line, which is probably right around here. So yes,
Speaker 1: it's getting a little bit of fomo, not quite as
Speaker 1: much as bitcoin, but either way, it's just over the
Speaker 1: last twenty four ish hours or so, it's up almost
Speaker 1: fifteen percent, which is great to see.
Speaker 3: So, Brian, let's look at XRP sentiment and MBRB.
Speaker 1: So xrp's positive to negative sentiment ratio is actually saying
Speaker 1: just barely. It looks like it's highest positive day since
Speaker 1: late January. So yeah, there's definitely some fomo going on here.
Speaker 1: XRPS approaching that coveted one fifty support line once again,
Speaker 1: So we'll see how people react if there's just a
Speaker 1: little bit more of a climb in the next you know,
Speaker 1: eight to twenty four hours or so. But right now
Speaker 1: people do appear to be getting a little hyped toward
Speaker 1: XRP once again. In terms of MVRV, so the thirty
Speaker 1: day just went back above the zero percent line. It's
Speaker 1: pretty much right on it now. But in terms of
Speaker 1: this essentially means that if you were to buy in now,
Speaker 1: or add onto your position, you'd no longer be doing
Speaker 1: it while there's a tremendous amount of pain among other
Speaker 1: XRP traders. Those XRP traders that our euro essential competitors
Speaker 1: have caught up and are back at that C level
Speaker 1: line basically the three sixty five day line, though however,
Speaker 1: still shows way way high pain points on average with
Speaker 1: a negative thirty five and a half percent average return.
Speaker 1: If you're in it for the long run, XRP looks
Speaker 1: like a nice bet for the rest of the year,
Speaker 1: assuming crypto can start to gain momentum itself. If you're
Speaker 1: in it for the short term swing trades, it's going
Speaker 1: to be very unpredictable at the moment. According to MVRVW. Wow, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's very very telling.
Speaker 3: So I'm just giving the chart that you shared before,
Speaker 3: would eat you know, that might be a better bet
Speaker 3: because it's still below the neutral.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if it all depends on your timeframe for investment strategy,
Speaker 1: if you're trying to decrease your risk as much as possible,
Speaker 1: Ethereum is the lowest of those top gaps at the
Speaker 1: moment in terms of average trading returns, so you'd be
Speaker 1: buying in while others are still well underwater for Ethereum,
Speaker 1: whereas for XRP for the short term, they're already back
Speaker 1: to square one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense. How about Salona? A sentiment has
Speaker 3: been somewhat quiet, or at least relative to the hype
Speaker 3: that we often see for Solana, which is quite loud
Speaker 3: most of the time, kind of like Chainlay, kind of
Speaker 3: like Cardono, very loyal social media following for him. But
Speaker 3: right now, despite this big jump, the sentiment doesn't appear
Speaker 3: to be anything special. It's up sixteen percent and roughly
Speaker 3: a little over a day, and it's only getting about
Speaker 3: two bullish comments per one bearish comment. And you compare
Speaker 3: that to something like here or is it three point
Speaker 3: six to one or even three point seven to one
Speaker 3: back in late January? So not really any evidence of
Speaker 3: crazy fomo for Solana relative to some of the big
Speaker 3: time fomo that we've seen in the past. Yeah, And
Speaker 3: it hasn't been much happening on the meme coin side,
Speaker 3: and not too much to be excited about with Solana.
Speaker 3: And look at overall the entire markets down. But you know,
Speaker 3: a lot of Solana's upside has been around memes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, remind me tone.
Speaker 1: Do you remember what their their top market cap meme
Speaker 1: coin is.
Speaker 2: Is it bunk? It might be that sounds right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I know Bank went on a huge
Speaker 1: run last year, but yeah, I mean, it isn't showing
Speaker 1: any crazy levels of fomo. It has risen a bit,
Speaker 1: but you know, these are like the big jumps that
Speaker 1: you would see for something like Bank. But you know,
Speaker 1: if meme coins do get on a run, yeah, which
Speaker 1: should be mentioned. When you see these large caps start
Speaker 1: to go off the way they have usually trickles down
Speaker 1: over the next couple of days into mid caps and
Speaker 1: then meme coins, right, assuming we don't see you know,
Speaker 1: bitcoins suddenly retrace right back below sixty five k and
Speaker 1: all those profits evaporate too quickly.
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: Can we also look at uniswap and yeah, reason why
Speaker 3: black Rock announced they're investing in the uniswap token. They're
Speaker 3: moving their money market fund on top of the or
Speaker 3: in the units up decks. So I'm curious how that's
Speaker 3: been performing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm interested to see what the long term effects
Speaker 1: are of that announcement, But so far, the sentiment doesn't
Speaker 1: appear to be showing any signs of the crowd registering it.
Speaker 2: They're staying very neutral toward it.
Speaker 1: We did see quite a jump as a result of
Speaker 1: that news, going up twenty four percent. But yeah, you
Speaker 1: can see right here the gold bars are staying low,
Speaker 1: not nearly what we saw with this kind of fomo
Speaker 1: or this kind of fomo.
Speaker 2: That makes sense, which is good.
Speaker 1: That means the mainstream crowd has not really caught up
Speaker 1: to the news. Maybe they have and they just don't
Speaker 1: think it's that big of a deal, but I know
Speaker 1: we do. I think that's that's the significant story for uniswap,
Speaker 1: which is the thirty third market gap out there right now.
Speaker 1: It wasn't like the top fifteen ish or so a
Speaker 1: couple of years back.
Speaker 2: I remember.
Speaker 1: So I know a lot of people who are rooting
Speaker 1: for you need to get right back to those coveted
Speaker 1: top spots.
Speaker 3: Oh absolutely, And maybe that's that's part of the trade
Speaker 3: for black rock, right in addition to building on it,
Speaker 3: they're investing in the token because people don't seem to
Speaker 3: care about it. But and that's where you could, you know,
Speaker 3: like we were looking at those privacy coins that were
Speaker 3: pumping and then people eventually caught up to it, like wait,
Speaker 3: we kind of missed the boat on this and then
Speaker 3: Fomo kicks in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, great point, all right, Brian.
Speaker 3: So I hope that when we meet in a couple
Speaker 3: of weeks again that things are in a better place
Speaker 3: and we can see further upside, you know, hopefully fingers crossed. Yeah, Bitcoin,
Speaker 3: you know, maybe go goes up to eighty eighty to
Speaker 3: ninety k all coins have a nice relief rally, and
Speaker 3: that would be good.
Speaker 2: We need something like that.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's at least awesome to see that we're
Speaker 1: finally getting a mini breakout here. It's you know, this
Speaker 1: is objectively the best collective market cap jump for crypto
Speaker 1: that we've seen in twenty twenty six in terms of
Speaker 1: a twenty four hour span, so.
Speaker 2: Certainly something to celebrate.
Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys have not panic sold out before this happened,
Speaker 1: and if you did, you know, take it as a
Speaker 1: mild lesson that you can't overreact too much to a
Speaker 1: long sustained downturn and you can always rely on things
Speaker 1: like MVRV which we showed to help guide you and
Speaker 1: understand that there can only be so much average trade
Speaker 1: or pain before some sort of mild relief rally like this.
Speaker 2: Happens. Yeah, I know.
Speaker 3: It's remind folks like markets don't move in the same
Speaker 3: direction forever, whether it's up or down. Right, it's the
Speaker 3: same human emotions at play. When it's going up, Ryan, Oh,
Speaker 3: it's gonna keep going higher, you have these big bullish narratives, right,
Speaker 3: but then it tops out at some point when it's
Speaker 3: going down, you have those negative narratives AI this that, right,
Speaker 3: and then people give.
Speaker 2: Up and then does the opposite. It's one of those things.
Speaker 3: Once you see it, you can't unsee it, and it's
Speaker 3: like you kind of learn how to use it to
Speaker 3: navigate the markets and you know, to invest.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and just briefly, I want to mention
Speaker 1: off of what you said. Look at how much binance
Speaker 1: was being talked about a couple of weeks ago, and
Speaker 1: how much they quote unquote scammed people. Regardless of your
Speaker 1: position of it. The Jane Street allegations that just came
Speaker 1: out over the last couple of days. All this stuff
Speaker 1: is very popular to talk about, but once market gaps
Speaker 1: go up, it's more like the crowd shrugs and says,
Speaker 1: a who cares about all that stuff. Let's focus on
Speaker 1: which meme coin to pump next, you know. So it's
Speaker 1: it's a very what have you done for me lately?
Speaker 1: Industry and it always will.
Speaker 2: Be for sure.
Speaker 3: And folks, if you want to get access to this
Speaker 3: data and all this stuff Brian was showing with Sentiment
Speaker 3: and MVRV, you can sign up for a free trial
Speaker 3: with Sentiment. A link will be in the description and
Speaker 3: go check it out.
Speaker 2: Folks. The data will really help you to navigate the markets.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Tony.
Speaker 3: All right, Brian catching in a couple of weeks and
Speaker 3: hopefully we're seeing, you know, a bigger rally.
Speaker 2: Bitingers cross Man, Cheers