WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:02.640 And even if, like if you don't buy the US 2 00:00:02.640 --> 00:00:06.360 should be leader of the free world. Obviously I think 3 00:00:06.400 --> 00:00:08.480 we all do. But even if you don't buy that, 4 00:00:08.960 --> 00:00:11.800 then you go to the argument of you do realize 5 00:00:11.800 --> 00:00:15.279 that every dime we spent given to Ukraine that depletes 6 00:00:15.560 --> 00:00:20.280 Russian military capability increases our relative strength to our most 7 00:00:20.359 --> 00:00:25.399 dangerous adversary. Right, So, even if you take out the morals, 8 00:00:25.480 --> 00:00:29.280 the ethics, the fact that we're democracy and we've always 9 00:00:29.320 --> 00:00:32.759 viewed ourself as leader their free world, every dime enhances 10 00:00:32.799 --> 00:00:35.240 our own national security. And then even if you don't 11 00:00:35.240 --> 00:00:39.119 buy that, there's three hundred and thirty five billion dollars 12 00:00:39.119 --> 00:00:44.479 worth of frozen Russian assets that they could use to 13 00:00:44.560 --> 00:00:47.960 support Ukraine. It wouldn't even be our own money. Right. 14 00:00:48.079 --> 00:00:49.799 This is one of those times you have to decide 15 00:00:49.840 --> 00:00:53.719 what side you're on it it's pretty clear, and you 16 00:00:53.759 --> 00:00:58.200 don't get you know, you don't get peace by capitulation. 17 00:01:00.039 --> 00:01:01.719 You're just gonna get more conflict. 18 00:01:03.039 --> 00:01:06.400 Everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm 19 00:01:06.480 --> 00:01:10.239 joined today with Mick Moulroy, Jason Lyones, maybe Andy Milburn 20 00:01:10.239 --> 00:01:12.319 in a little bit. I think he's just finishing up 21 00:01:12.359 --> 00:01:16.799 his Bicec workout. A lot happening as usual. The big 22 00:01:16.799 --> 00:01:20.920 stuff that's cooking right now that's taken like precedent precedents 23 00:01:20.959 --> 00:01:25.079 in the news anyway, is the twenty eight point piece 24 00:01:25.159 --> 00:01:30.120 plan for Ukraine and Russia that was supposedly drawn up 25 00:01:30.200 --> 00:01:34.200 by the US, but we don't really know. There's a 26 00:01:34.239 --> 00:01:37.400 bit of back and forth with that. I mean, I 27 00:01:37.519 --> 00:01:39.799 right through the twenty eighth the whole thing, and it's 28 00:01:39.840 --> 00:01:44.079 an absolute it's kind of a joke. And here's Andy 29 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:46.319 and he's not even there. It's okay, we keep going. 30 00:01:46.359 --> 00:01:52.319 I'm mutah, so Eric, Andy, Andy, we're recording, So get. 31 00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:56.159 Your mind right, Hey, never mind dying. I did I 32 00:01:56.200 --> 00:02:01.879 miss the the announcement was the announcement Jason's getting married. 33 00:02:02.319 --> 00:02:05.120 Yeah, I already. 34 00:02:06.920 --> 00:02:09.800 Had occasion, that's right. 35 00:02:09.840 --> 00:02:11.159 I got dressed up for the occasion. 36 00:02:11.159 --> 00:02:11.400 I did. 37 00:02:11.520 --> 00:02:16.240 Yeah, he did it well, he did it well. 38 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:17.759 Congrats. 39 00:02:18.919 --> 00:02:21.719 Congratulations Jaank, you appreciate it. 40 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:26.800 That's awesome. Congrats Jay. All right, let's start over. I'll 41 00:02:26.879 --> 00:02:28.879 leave that in. Actually, all right, so we're talking twenty 42 00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:32.919 eight point piece plan that was supposedly written by wit 43 00:02:33.039 --> 00:02:37.199 cough uh Secretary of Rubio. Maybe there's like so many 44 00:02:37.199 --> 00:02:40.120 conflicting reports going on that we don't even know. There 45 00:02:40.199 --> 00:02:43.400 is a report saying that it's basically translated from Russian 46 00:02:43.400 --> 00:02:45.080 and it was a Russian report that was handed to 47 00:02:45.120 --> 00:02:49.439 Wig cough. Uh, it's chaos. If you read through the 48 00:02:49.439 --> 00:02:51.520 twenty eight points, it's like kind of like, you know, 49 00:02:51.599 --> 00:02:53.840 there's some good stuff in there, but it's mostly bullshit. Like, 50 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:56.439 let's be honest. Uh So I'm gonna pass this over 51 00:02:56.520 --> 00:02:59.240 to the experts. Tell me what you guys are thinking 52 00:02:59.280 --> 00:03:01.960 in terms of what this peace plan means. Also, it 53 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:05.439 was they gave him a gave you crane a deadline 54 00:03:06.039 --> 00:03:10.439 of Thanksgiving, which is kind of fucking hilarious. You know, 55 00:03:11.120 --> 00:03:12.919 the state of your here's the future of your country, 56 00:03:12.919 --> 00:03:15.120 and you have five seven days to decide, So let 57 00:03:15.199 --> 00:03:19.240 us know as soon as possible. Mitch, I'm edatorializing now, guys. Sorry, 58 00:03:19.479 --> 00:03:23.039 alert like you should maybe beat, you know, play hardball 59 00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:26.680 at fucking Russia. You know, the actual aggressor of this 60 00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:29.960 war over you guys, make you go ahead. 61 00:03:30.520 --> 00:03:32.400 So we've been talking about this all week as the 62 00:03:32.520 --> 00:03:39.400 US plan on the news, as people know, and now 63 00:03:39.400 --> 00:03:43.960 we're hearing that it could have potentially been Russian drafted 64 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:50.439 plan that was then leaked to the press, and quite frankly, 65 00:03:50.840 --> 00:03:53.120 if you read the twenty eight points, it looks like 66 00:03:53.199 --> 00:03:56.960 a Russian drafted plan. So I don't know, but there's 67 00:03:57.159 --> 00:04:01.319 certainly a lot several media reports from very valid sources 68 00:04:01.360 --> 00:04:05.199 that Secretary of Rubio essentially said that the US did 69 00:04:05.199 --> 00:04:08.439 not draft it and imply that Russia did so to 70 00:04:08.479 --> 00:04:11.360 start with that, don't know if it's true, but that's 71 00:04:11.560 --> 00:04:15.879 very consistent with the way Russia does negotiations. It's very 72 00:04:15.960 --> 00:04:20.839 much their version of psychological warfare, what they call decision 73 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:24.920 shaping or reflexive control for those of you who follow 74 00:04:25.000 --> 00:04:28.920 the Russian means of state craft, which is always intertwined 75 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:35.319 with intelligence operations. So it's possible that Russia drafted the 76 00:04:35.360 --> 00:04:38.160 plan to look like it came from the United States, 77 00:04:39.120 --> 00:04:42.920 gave it to a delegate of the United States, let 78 00:04:42.959 --> 00:04:48.120 it circulate, and then leaked it to the press to 79 00:04:48.240 --> 00:04:52.600 basically cause a lot of consternation with European partners and 80 00:04:52.639 --> 00:04:56.920 obviously with Ukraine. I don't know that that's what happened, 81 00:04:57.319 --> 00:04:59.639 but that is what happened as far as like the 82 00:05:00.000 --> 00:05:03.319 internation part of it. So, and there was a lot 83 00:05:03.360 --> 00:05:06.519 of pushback not only from all our European partners, but 84 00:05:07.040 --> 00:05:13.920 Republicans in Congress, including the chairman of the Senate Armed 85 00:05:13.959 --> 00:05:18.800 Services Committee, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, And that was 86 00:05:19.000 --> 00:05:23.519 the part about Secretary would be a briefing those Senators 87 00:05:23.519 --> 00:05:28.519 who are very much not in alignment with what it's 88 00:05:28.560 --> 00:05:31.680 asking Ukraine to do. So some of the points and 89 00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:37.240 then obviously turn over to the nflos here if you 90 00:05:37.279 --> 00:05:42.879 concede completely your territory, not just acknowledge it, you can't 91 00:05:42.879 --> 00:05:48.920 take it back militarily. That is obviously rewarding aggression, and 92 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:52.519 it can't be done just by the leadership of Ukraine. 93 00:05:52.560 --> 00:05:57.680 It has to include a referendum that would be entirely 94 00:05:57.720 --> 00:06:01.800 against their interests. It then requires that Ukraine cuts its 95 00:06:01.879 --> 00:06:08.240 military in half, that it can never join NATO, that 96 00:06:08.959 --> 00:06:12.560 European forces who have already volunteered can't go in to 97 00:06:12.639 --> 00:06:17.120 secure you know, that the war does not restart. And 98 00:06:17.160 --> 00:06:22.399 then it gives a tenuous security guarantee which doesn't appear 99 00:06:22.439 --> 00:06:25.399 to be, you know, essentially a treaty what they would 100 00:06:25.439 --> 00:06:28.920 need to guarantee it. And it's important to point out 101 00:06:28.920 --> 00:06:32.000 that Ukraine currently has an agreement by the United States 102 00:06:32.079 --> 00:06:34.519 and the UK to protect it from an evasion, and 103 00:06:34.560 --> 00:06:38.480 you can see how that's going. So they and then 104 00:06:38.720 --> 00:06:41.360 you know, there's even some versions that say the Ukraine 105 00:06:41.360 --> 00:06:45.000 would have to pay for the security guarantee actually compensate 106 00:06:45.040 --> 00:06:50.120 the United States for it. So I'm now hoping that 107 00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:54.160 this was a Russian plan that just gets ripped up 108 00:06:54.199 --> 00:06:57.480 and thrown in the trash can, and that they start 109 00:06:57.519 --> 00:07:02.079 over with one that's far more aligned with Ukraine, which 110 00:07:02.120 --> 00:07:06.279 is our partner, not Russia, and that the Europeans really 111 00:07:06.319 --> 00:07:09.519 step up because there's a lot going on, I'm sure, 112 00:07:09.560 --> 00:07:11.560 and you can get into it, Jake, get into it 113 00:07:12.959 --> 00:07:15.199 on the battlefield right now, and it's not really going great. 114 00:07:15.319 --> 00:07:18.360 So we need to step up our support, tear up 115 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:22.279 this agreement, start over, step up our support militarily and 116 00:07:22.399 --> 00:07:26.399 sanctions and the release of frozen funds or we're going 117 00:07:26.480 --> 00:07:30.120 to see a potential loss long term. It's going to 118 00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:34.040 take a while in Europe of a key democrat Acount Melbourne. 119 00:07:35.079 --> 00:07:38.399 Yeah, I mean, I don't know whether it's love for 120 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:44.560 panic at this plan. It's just extraordinary. I mean, for instance, 121 00:07:44.839 --> 00:07:50.000 it prohibits Ukraine from launching a missile at Moscow or 122 00:07:50.079 --> 00:07:54.439 Saint Petersburg. But nowhere else in Russia, and there's no 123 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:59.240 limit on Russian strikes at all. Russia basically is rewarded 124 00:07:59.319 --> 00:08:02.480 for whole its invasion by keeping all the territory it 125 00:08:02.519 --> 00:08:07.000 already has, plus some more. It gets welcomed into the 126 00:08:07.040 --> 00:08:11.720 international community, including the G eight, It gets relief from sanctions. 127 00:08:12.439 --> 00:08:15.319 What does Ukraine get? It gets a ceasefire which is 128 00:08:15.439 --> 00:08:19.519 likely to be temporary, and an American guarantee that Russia 129 00:08:19.560 --> 00:08:22.399 will not attack again. I think mich already summed up 130 00:08:22.519 --> 00:08:25.959 very nicely what that guarantee means. Yeah, I mean, this 131 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:32.919 really does favor Putin because aside from limiting Ukrainians military 132 00:08:32.960 --> 00:08:35.639 cutting it in half, and by the way, there's absolutely 133 00:08:35.679 --> 00:08:40.399 no limit on the Russian military. So Ukraine is being 134 00:08:40.440 --> 00:08:43.519 pushed back. As they said, additional territory is being handed 135 00:08:43.519 --> 00:08:46.080 to Russia would be handed to Russia under this plan. 136 00:08:47.360 --> 00:08:50.360 And what's significant about that, Aside from the fact that 137 00:08:50.440 --> 00:08:53.480 whole cities full of Ukrainians are being turned over to 138 00:08:53.480 --> 00:08:57.200 the Russians, what's significant about that is that the Ukrainians 139 00:08:57.240 --> 00:08:59.000 of the last both sides, of the last two to 140 00:08:59.080 --> 00:09:03.600 three years have built up a series of fortifications and 141 00:09:03.679 --> 00:09:07.440 so now for Ukraine to pull back hand those fortifications 142 00:09:07.480 --> 00:09:10.840 over to Russia puts Russia in a doubly strong position 143 00:09:11.279 --> 00:09:13.679 if and when, I think we all know, when Russia 144 00:09:13.840 --> 00:09:18.759 decides to kick off the offense once again. No NATO 145 00:09:18.799 --> 00:09:21.919 troops are allowed to be stationed in Ukrainian territory, which 146 00:09:22.120 --> 00:09:26.080 puts an end to European plans which were until now 147 00:09:26.159 --> 00:09:31.279 supported by the United States to station a reassurance force 148 00:09:31.360 --> 00:09:39.519 there and essentially so Putin now he gets additional territory. 149 00:09:39.879 --> 00:09:44.080 It's a win for him, and he gets lifting lifting 150 00:09:44.080 --> 00:09:47.480 of sanctions which be hugely popular. He gets to rebuild 151 00:09:47.519 --> 00:09:50.840 his army, and he gets to continue to threaten not 152 00:09:50.919 --> 00:09:55.200 just Ukraine, but the you know, the whole flank of NATO, uh, 153 00:09:55.440 --> 00:09:58.360 you know, all all the way from from the Arctic 154 00:09:58.440 --> 00:10:01.200 to the Black Sea. And you know, if you've been 155 00:10:01.240 --> 00:10:08.360 following Putin, that's he is. He's he has to keep 156 00:10:08.879 --> 00:10:13.879 he has to keep gnawing away at at at what 157 00:10:13.919 --> 00:10:17.120 he perceives to be the enemies and trying to regain 158 00:10:18.080 --> 00:10:21.159 parts of the Soviet Empire, if not all of it. 159 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:24.000 And that's what he's going to continue to do, uh, 160 00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:27.840 you know, aside from aside from anything else, We're going 161 00:10:27.879 --> 00:10:31.879 to look at the strategic messaging of this plan to 162 00:10:31.879 --> 00:10:37.039 to polices like Taiwan and South Korea. Again. You know, 163 00:10:37.080 --> 00:10:40.559 I'm just hoping this isn't going to be painted as 164 00:10:40.600 --> 00:10:43.519 a US plan. I agree with Mick it it looks 165 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:46.360 like it was drawn out by a bunch of Russians 166 00:10:46.399 --> 00:10:50.559 after a heavy vodka drinking session and and and slipped 167 00:10:50.600 --> 00:10:55.240 into the hands maybe of a comatose diplomat who is 168 00:10:55.279 --> 00:10:57.720 now trumpeting at this as a as a US plan. 169 00:10:59.039 --> 00:11:02.279 Yeah, that's probably Steve Wikoff. Let's like, not get it twisted. 170 00:11:02.399 --> 00:11:04.279 I didn't. I didn't mention it. 171 00:11:03.799 --> 00:11:07.679 I'll say it. I mean, and you know, we saw 172 00:11:07.720 --> 00:11:10.279 what happened. We heard what happened about a week ago. 173 00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:14.000 General Kellogg is out in January, so there's some rumors 174 00:11:14.039 --> 00:11:16.159 that he was fired or some rumors that he's resigning. 175 00:11:18.120 --> 00:11:20.000 Understand it will be so right because he's supposed to 176 00:11:20.039 --> 00:11:22.559 be the Special Envoy to Ukraine and he's been sidelined 177 00:11:22.600 --> 00:11:25.840 ever since, like probably that Oval Office blow up, uh 178 00:11:26.039 --> 00:11:30.759 with Jelenski and Trump couple. I mean, I was reading 179 00:11:30.759 --> 00:11:34.320 through this plan and it's almost fucking mind boggling that 180 00:11:34.559 --> 00:11:38.120 this could like you can dictate trying to dictate to Ukraine. 181 00:11:38.440 --> 00:11:41.240 You're gonna hold elections within one hundred days, You're gonna 182 00:11:41.320 --> 00:11:44.799 change your constitution, You're gonna you know, like you guys 183 00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:47.879 mentioned like cap your military. It's like, where the fuck 184 00:11:47.960 --> 00:11:49.879 do you get off telling us what to do with 185 00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:53.039 our country? And that's the US and Russia. I'm saying, 186 00:11:53.080 --> 00:11:58.440 that's Russia, definitely. It's just incredible. And there's another point 187 00:11:58.519 --> 00:12:02.039 here in terms of like the the frozen assets, the 188 00:12:02.120 --> 00:12:05.279 Russian assets, and one hundred billion would be given to 189 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:09.279 Ukraine for the for the reconstruction. All three hundred billions 190 00:12:09.279 --> 00:12:11.559 should be given to Ukraine, if not for the reconstruction, 191 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:17.440 for weapons to fucking keep smoking Russian soldiers and the 192 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:20.600 interesting pizza like I was looking at is the US 193 00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:26.279 will receive fifty profits of these projects. It's like not 194 00:12:26.440 --> 00:12:30.000 everything is a fucking hotel deal, you know what I'm saying, 195 00:12:30.159 --> 00:12:33.240 Like these are real people's lives, Like let's get a 196 00:12:33.279 --> 00:12:37.120 ceasefire done. That makes sense for everybody, not so al much. 197 00:12:37.320 --> 00:12:39.240 They can fuck off the Russians in my opinion, but 198 00:12:39.320 --> 00:12:42.559 for Ukraine and then work on a lost, long lasting 199 00:12:42.559 --> 00:12:46.039 piece plan instead of like just these fucking grubby ass 200 00:12:46.120 --> 00:12:48.360 hands trying to get in and loot Ukraine for what 201 00:12:48.399 --> 00:12:48.840 it's worth. 202 00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:54.399 It tells, it tells, it tells NATO what to do too, exactly, 203 00:12:55.679 --> 00:13:01.279 it says NATO can't expand yeah, right, so now now 204 00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:06.720 we're we're selling out Ukraine NATO all for let's let's 205 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:09.519 be let's be real. This isn't gonna last. As soon 206 00:13:09.559 --> 00:13:12.600 as they get to the negotiation table, Ukraine and the 207 00:13:12.639 --> 00:13:16.960 European partners, if they're invited, are gonna say no, just no. 208 00:13:17.639 --> 00:13:20.000 Well, that massa has kind of been clear ever since 209 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:22.720 this planet came out. Right, Zelenski had like a big 210 00:13:23.000 --> 00:13:25.960 ten minute address to the nation, and he put it 211 00:13:26.000 --> 00:13:29.440 pretty bluntly, talking about how, you know, we're in a 212 00:13:29.480 --> 00:13:32.039 tough spot where like either give up our dignity or 213 00:13:32.080 --> 00:13:35.200 lose one of our biggest allies in the US. 214 00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:37.360 Yeah, and it's a big deal. I mean, a lot 215 00:13:37.360 --> 00:13:40.320 of the weapon system they have rely on the US intelligence. 216 00:13:40.360 --> 00:13:42.799 And if we're cut off intelligence, well there you go. 217 00:13:44.120 --> 00:13:45.720 I mean we've cut I think we've cut a lot 218 00:13:45.720 --> 00:13:50.279 of our security assistance down recently, losing it entirely. Is 219 00:13:52.039 --> 00:13:55.279 I hope there's there's some the Europeans step up right, 220 00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:58.200 I hope there's some churchhills out there, a lot less 221 00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:02.600 chamberlains because this is going to require and you know 222 00:14:03.799 --> 00:14:07.679 the battles that are going on right now, polkrits Am 223 00:14:07.679 --> 00:14:12.919 I saying that, right Andy, the hub of Ukrainian logistics 224 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:21.159 is by all analysts I'm talking to, the Ukrainians are 225 00:14:21.159 --> 00:14:24.519 outnumbered almost ten to one. That the Tendu was hold on, 226 00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:27.720 that city would be one of the biggest to fall 227 00:14:27.879 --> 00:14:34.360 and it would really impact Ukrainians' ability to resupply themselves. Right. So, 228 00:14:34.399 --> 00:14:39.799 they're fighting against an overwhelming enemy for multiple for multiple years, 229 00:14:40.600 --> 00:14:46.559 and they have lukewarm support not only by their allies, 230 00:14:46.600 --> 00:14:48.679 but their allies that are literally right next to them. 231 00:14:49.399 --> 00:14:53.080 So this is always has been. But this is the 232 00:14:53.120 --> 00:14:55.840 situation where your neighbor's house is on fire. Are you 233 00:14:55.879 --> 00:14:58.120 going to wait to your houses on fire to start 234 00:14:58.159 --> 00:14:59.480 putting it out? Are you going to go help your 235 00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:00.000 neighbor here? 236 00:15:00.639 --> 00:15:00.840 Right? 237 00:15:01.039 --> 00:15:06.279 So it it really does take a leader to step up, 238 00:15:06.279 --> 00:15:11.440 hopefully multiple and put their actions where their mouth is. 239 00:15:12.519 --> 00:15:15.919 Harshly worded tweets are all huddling around a table to 240 00:15:16.000 --> 00:15:19.519 listen to a speakerphone conversations is not going to do it. 241 00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:22.399 It's going to take people being very definitive and stop 242 00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:25.879 caring about what's what Russian says. They're going to threaten 243 00:15:26.000 --> 00:15:30.120 nuclear war every time. We all know it, ignore it, 244 00:15:30.440 --> 00:15:34.159 move on, or else You're basically going to go down 245 00:15:34.200 --> 00:15:37.600 as cowards in my opinion, and I don't think anybody 246 00:15:37.639 --> 00:15:40.600 wants to be going down as a coward in history. 247 00:15:40.799 --> 00:15:43.120 But this is the history has been written right now. 248 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:45.679 Hopefully people are going to take heat of that. And 249 00:15:45.720 --> 00:15:48.200 I'm not just talking about the US, I'm talking about 250 00:15:49.480 --> 00:15:55.080 all of the democracies that claim to be an alliance. 251 00:15:55.639 --> 00:15:59.799 Yeah, I am, you know, I can uni your right make. 252 00:16:00.000 --> 00:16:03.000 The only way ahead is for Europe to step up 253 00:16:03.039 --> 00:16:06.000 to the plate. I mean, we have been in the 254 00:16:06.120 --> 00:16:10.440 last year and a half two years an increasingly unreliable 255 00:16:10.679 --> 00:16:14.000 partner to Ukraine. And even before that, as I've said, 256 00:16:14.120 --> 00:16:17.720 and we grip fed Ukraine weapons allowing the Russians to adapt, 257 00:16:17.759 --> 00:16:20.039 We've given them too little, too late. I know there's 258 00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:22.120 a lot of the audience he who are going to 259 00:16:22.120 --> 00:16:25.279 disagree with that, but we're either in or we're out. 260 00:16:25.879 --> 00:16:28.200 And what we've done is kind of tiptoe around in 261 00:16:28.519 --> 00:16:31.440 the shallow water, being afraid of Putin and given things 262 00:16:31.480 --> 00:16:34.120 here and there, we should have poured on the lethal 263 00:16:34.159 --> 00:16:37.240 weight right from the start, and then we would be 264 00:16:37.279 --> 00:16:39.879 facing a very different situation now. I think all of 265 00:16:39.919 --> 00:16:43.639 us understand that who understand Putin? But we are where 266 00:16:43.679 --> 00:16:45.759 we are now, And I would say, you know, the 267 00:16:45.799 --> 00:16:48.200 best thing for Zelenski to do is not to fight 268 00:16:48.279 --> 00:16:52.279 this plan openly, but to try and negotiate and bring 269 00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:57.039 up other terms and counter terms, play Putin's game and 270 00:16:57.320 --> 00:17:00.600 watch Putin reject things, and eventually I think this administration 271 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:06.759 will lose patients again, you know. And meanwhile, appeal to 272 00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:10.480 the Europeans. I mean, Europe's having some severe fiscal province 273 00:17:10.559 --> 00:17:13.920 right now, but they need to step up to the 274 00:17:13.920 --> 00:17:16.759 players I've said, and and I think you know there 275 00:17:16.799 --> 00:17:19.559 are European leaders willing to do that. Poland is the 276 00:17:19.559 --> 00:17:25.240 Baltic countries. The UK even under a labor government, has 277 00:17:25.319 --> 00:17:27.880 been more of a staunch support of Ukraine than our 278 00:17:27.880 --> 00:17:31.079 own government. So I think that, you know, to your 279 00:17:31.079 --> 00:17:33.000 point of finding a church, I'm not sure there is 280 00:17:33.039 --> 00:17:35.319 a church out there unless you're looking at a very 281 00:17:35.359 --> 00:17:38.599 gallic one macron. I know that's going to cen you 282 00:17:38.720 --> 00:17:43.160 to down people's spines. But you may not find individual leaders. 283 00:17:43.200 --> 00:17:45.920 But in the Baltics actually and in Poland, you're going 284 00:17:45.960 --> 00:17:50.400 to find very determined front to whatever the cost, to 285 00:17:50.519 --> 00:17:55.039 continue to support Ukraine to fight Russia. And Europe's make 286 00:17:55.119 --> 00:17:59.960 great strides in the last two years in manufacturing immune 287 00:18:00.400 --> 00:18:03.880 particularly one five five rounds, which you know that there's 288 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:08.759 been a shortfall lot and uh, and Europe's going all 289 00:18:08.799 --> 00:18:12.640 in to include Germany on providing a defense systems uh, 290 00:18:13.440 --> 00:18:17.880 the you know, long range cruise and ballistic missiles. So 291 00:18:18.759 --> 00:18:20.960 you know, I think, I think that's what we're going 292 00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:26.279 to see. It's just, of course, hugely disappointing that our 293 00:18:26.279 --> 00:18:30.160 own country is no longer a staunch defender of freedom. Also, 294 00:18:30.200 --> 00:18:32.039 it appears yea, and. 295 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:33.680 I've said this before, and I think one of you 296 00:18:34.160 --> 00:18:35.920 mentioned it too. What does this look like to our 297 00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:38.519 allies on the other side of the world, to Taiwan, 298 00:18:39.119 --> 00:18:42.240 you know, and moret most importantly to China. If we 299 00:18:42.319 --> 00:18:47.720 can't even write our own if this is true, if 300 00:18:47.720 --> 00:18:50.640 we can't even write our own peace plan or peace proposal, 301 00:18:51.119 --> 00:18:55.039 or we're you know, or the ones we are writing 302 00:18:55.200 --> 00:18:59.240 are one side, heavily one sided, to the aggressor what 303 00:18:59.400 --> 00:19:01.680 is thay One's probably thinking what the hell are you 304 00:19:01.720 --> 00:19:04.079 going to do for us? You know, and China's probably 305 00:19:04.119 --> 00:19:06.720 thinking this is perfect play This is a perfect playbook, 306 00:19:07.039 --> 00:19:10.680 you know. So the ramifications on the other side of 307 00:19:10.680 --> 00:19:12.759 the global to me are just as important. That's what's 308 00:19:12.799 --> 00:19:14.000 happening in Ukraine. 309 00:19:15.640 --> 00:19:18.279 Yeah, and even if, like if you don't buy the 310 00:19:18.359 --> 00:19:22.079 US should be leader of the free world. Obviously I 311 00:19:22.119 --> 00:19:24.359 think we all do. But even if you don't buy that, 312 00:19:24.839 --> 00:19:27.680 then you go to the argument of you do realize 313 00:19:27.720 --> 00:19:31.200 that every dime we spent given to Ukraine that depletes 314 00:19:31.440 --> 00:19:36.160 Russian military capability increases our relative strength to our most 315 00:19:36.240 --> 00:19:41.319 dangerous adversary. Right, So, even if you take out the morals, 316 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:45.160 the ethics, the fact that we're democracy and we've always 317 00:19:45.240 --> 00:19:47.599 viewed ourself as leader of the free world, every dime 318 00:19:48.160 --> 00:19:51.839 enhances our own national security. And then even if you 319 00:19:51.839 --> 00:19:55.519 don't buy that, there's three hundred and thirty five billion 320 00:19:55.559 --> 00:20:01.319 dollars worth of frozen Russian assets they could use to 321 00:20:01.359 --> 00:20:06.039 support Ukrae. It wouldn't even be our own money, right, 322 00:20:06.240 --> 00:20:10.720 So this is one of those times you have to decide 323 00:20:10.720 --> 00:20:14.799 what side you're on it. It's pretty clear. You don't 324 00:20:14.839 --> 00:20:21.119 get you know, you don't get peace by capitulation. You're 325 00:20:21.160 --> 00:20:22.640 just going to get more conflict. 326 00:20:25.119 --> 00:20:28.319 And I don't know as you go ahead, Andy, No, 327 00:20:28.480 --> 00:20:31.240 it's just saying to make to your point about Pokrofsk. 328 00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:35.119 Actually one of our one of our listeners is a 329 00:20:35.160 --> 00:20:38.839 resident of pok Ross Score that's his hometown, because whenever 330 00:20:38.880 --> 00:20:42.279 I refer to it as a shithole, he gets quite upset. 331 00:20:42.359 --> 00:20:45.880 But sadly Pokrofsk, I mean it was a ship all before. 332 00:20:46.000 --> 00:20:48.880 I've spent quite a bit of time there, but it's 333 00:20:48.920 --> 00:20:52.640 been absolutely flattened and the environment there on the front line. 334 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:55.599 We talked about this for a while. I mean we've 335 00:20:55.599 --> 00:20:59.759 talked about this before. It's just incomprehensible. I mean, anything 336 00:20:59.799 --> 00:21:03.039 that moves or amitzer heat signature is killed. You know, 337 00:21:03.079 --> 00:21:06.960 the Russians, there's talks of the Russians or you know 338 00:21:07.240 --> 00:21:12.319 stories of the Russians are attacking now on you know, 339 00:21:12.759 --> 00:21:18.440 carrying thermal blankets, stripping down to almost nothing in you know, 340 00:21:18.599 --> 00:21:23.920 small groups like twos and threes using sometimes quad bikes 341 00:21:24.000 --> 00:21:32.960 or motorcycles. No one uses APCs or infantry fighting vehicles anymore. 342 00:21:33.519 --> 00:21:42.799 Russie estimates. That's the Royal United Service Institute reputable. That's 343 00:21:42.839 --> 00:21:47.319 gonna say Russian reputable. British think tank estimates that in 344 00:21:47.799 --> 00:21:51.960 any given attack involving armored vehicles, two out of three 345 00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:56.319 are destroyed. I mean, the attrition is just incredible. Manned 346 00:21:56.400 --> 00:21:59.799 vehicles are becoming obsolete, and that's why the Ukrainians have 347 00:22:00.759 --> 00:22:06.400 have developed unmanned vehicles that shoot, move and communicate using AI. 348 00:22:06.640 --> 00:22:11.240 It's quite incredible. And there is a story in the 349 00:22:11.279 --> 00:22:17.119 Economists about the evacuation of medical person of I'm sorry, casualties, 350 00:22:17.200 --> 00:22:21.880 and they're using unmanned ground vehicles to do that. They 351 00:22:21.920 --> 00:22:26.440 recovered one guy from from no man's land. You know, 352 00:22:26.440 --> 00:22:31.440 I don't it's an exaggeration, but it says in the story, Yeah, 353 00:22:31.640 --> 00:22:35.799 and he gets He just climbs in the vehicle. It's 354 00:22:35.839 --> 00:22:39.119 like an egg, isn't. It closes around him and then 355 00:22:39.319 --> 00:22:41.759 Russians are trying to hit it with drones. It hits 356 00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:45.880 a mine and just keeps rolling. I mean, it's just unbelievable. 357 00:22:47.279 --> 00:22:50.559 Yeah, we do tackle training out here in Montana and 358 00:22:50.599 --> 00:22:57.039 we're adjusting based on all the incoming lessons learned from Ukraine. Right, 359 00:22:57.160 --> 00:22:59.640 there's going to be a lot more interests and you 360 00:22:59.799 --> 00:23:06.480 just it and individual low cost vehicles for transport, you know, 361 00:23:06.559 --> 00:23:13.480 motorspip cycles, electric ones, nomobiles, electric ones or at least 362 00:23:13.480 --> 00:23:16.519 their version. We're adjusting to all that because it's being 363 00:23:17.279 --> 00:23:19.960 you can see how things are shaping. And of course 364 00:23:20.039 --> 00:23:23.519 drone warfare is I mean, they just took a helicopter 365 00:23:23.599 --> 00:23:25.920 down I think an m I eight with a with 366 00:23:25.960 --> 00:23:29.720 a drone two hundred miles beyond enemy lines if I 367 00:23:29.759 --> 00:23:32.319 read it correctly. So all these lessons, that's the other 368 00:23:32.359 --> 00:23:33.839 thing that you ask to get from this. We should 369 00:23:33.839 --> 00:23:37.200 be sucking all this not only fully support in Ukraine 370 00:23:38.480 --> 00:23:42.279 with support, not fighting, but we could be getting all 371 00:23:42.319 --> 00:23:45.119 of these lessons learned because this we're looking at the 372 00:23:45.160 --> 00:23:49.240 face of modern warfare right now in Ukraine and it's ugly, 373 00:23:49.720 --> 00:23:52.119 but you don't want to lose it. So we need 374 00:23:52.400 --> 00:23:54.640 we need to be gathering all this information. 375 00:23:56.079 --> 00:24:01.240 And getting ready for Unfortunately, yeah, proliferation of FPD, that's 376 00:24:01.319 --> 00:24:06.119 first person view drones is particularly frightening. You know when 377 00:24:06.119 --> 00:24:12.079 you read about these things, you know these things are 378 00:24:12.160 --> 00:24:17.960 like multiple imagine multiple snipers who you know don't just 379 00:24:18.039 --> 00:24:21.920 have direct line of line of side fire that can 380 00:24:22.440 --> 00:24:26.519 follow their victims into buildings. You know, once once one 381 00:24:26.519 --> 00:24:28.640 of these drones is locked onto you, and I you know, 382 00:24:28.680 --> 00:24:30.519 I forget what the percentage is, but you've got a 383 00:24:30.559 --> 00:24:34.359 slim chance of surviving. And these drones are just hovering 384 00:24:34.480 --> 00:24:38.240 over both sides. Are these drones just hovering over the 385 00:24:38.240 --> 00:24:43.359 other's territory looking for targets. I mean, it's it's a 386 00:24:43.480 --> 00:24:48.799 terrifying It's like a dystopian movie about the future. 387 00:24:49.920 --> 00:24:54.400 Yeah, it is. We better be gathering Raly in front too. 388 00:24:55.119 --> 00:24:57.720 And by the way, just you know, not everything's going 389 00:24:57.799 --> 00:25:01.400 Russia's way. I mean, they can knew. Russia continues to 390 00:25:01.440 --> 00:25:06.839 take casualties, and Russie saying at least a thousand a day. 391 00:25:07.200 --> 00:25:09.599 You know, on a good day, it's a thousand casualties 392 00:25:09.680 --> 00:25:15.480 a day. And I mean it's just it's just incredible. 393 00:25:15.640 --> 00:25:19.559 And Russia now has turned on its own bloggers. You know, 394 00:25:19.599 --> 00:25:26.720 there's this whole bloggos there of military kind of YouTuber 395 00:25:27.039 --> 00:25:32.279 telegrammers on the Russian side who are commenting on the war. 396 00:25:32.359 --> 00:25:34.559 Of course, they're pro Russian. They always have been pro 397 00:25:34.640 --> 00:25:38.839 Russian because they're Russians, right, But now a bunch of 398 00:25:38.880 --> 00:25:41.599 them have turned against the conduct of the war. I mean, 399 00:25:41.599 --> 00:25:44.000 they've always been quite critical, but now they come out 400 00:25:44.119 --> 00:25:48.440 and forced to criticize particular generals and the government itself 401 00:25:48.480 --> 00:25:50.799