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<v Speaker 1>Teen sixty one, there have been three five hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>Enter it now. Bill Cunning in The Great American of Course.

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<v Speaker 2>Andy Jacobson is a New York Times best selling author.

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<v Speaker 2>She's written, among other things, many many books, including The

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<v Speaker 2>First Platoon and Area fifty one. She's spent I would

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<v Speaker 2>think years interviewing all the relevant players about a nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>war exchange, and when I got the book about three

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<v Speaker 2>weeks ago, it's amazing the research that was done. Some

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<v Speaker 2>of the topicies include the build up, How we Got here,

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<v Speaker 2>Part two, the First twenty four minutes of Nuclear War.

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<v Speaker 2>Part three is the next twenty four minutes of nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>war and the final twenty four minutes and Annie Jacobson,

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Bill Cunningham show. The book is Nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>War a Scenario? And you go through the beginning of

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<v Speaker 2>about almost eighty years ago when Americas set off the

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<v Speaker 2>first nuclear explosion. Plus you have the six scenarios under

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<v Speaker 2>which America was very very close to a nuclear exchange

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<v Speaker 2>with that point through the USSR. At this point, can

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<v Speaker 2>you describe to the American people the first twenty four

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<v Speaker 2>minutes of nuclear war and what occurs in those time

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<v Speaker 2>period and does it make a difference between North Korea

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<v Speaker 2>and USSR or Iran? So what are the first twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four minutes?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, you've hit upon the basic issue and the most

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<v Speaker 3>terrifying issue of all of this, which is timing and

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<v Speaker 3>speed and urgency of it all. Once nuclear war begins,

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<v Speaker 3>it does not stop. And that is why I chose

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<v Speaker 3>the ticking clocks in the area, which happened in seconds

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<v Speaker 3>and minutes, not hours and weeks. Nuclear war essentially begins

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<v Speaker 3>in the first fraction of a second that our satellite system,

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<v Speaker 3>very advanced technological system made by Lockheed parked over our

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear armed adversaries attacks the hot rocket exhaust on a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear launch. So if you just imagine, if your listeners

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<v Speaker 3>imagine how this all begins. This is not a scenario

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<v Speaker 3>like nine to eleven where someone whispers in the president's ears, sir,

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<v Speaker 3>we've been hit by the terrorists. This is it happens

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<v Speaker 3>before the missile lands in America, and that is why

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<v Speaker 3>a system of events begins to happen, whereby the president

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<v Speaker 3>must launch a counter attack, ideally before the first missile

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<v Speaker 3>hits the United States. I mean, the peril only ratchets

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<v Speaker 3>up from there.

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, you reference the fact that other than an

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<v Speaker 2>asteroid strike the Earth which destroyed the dinosaurs and I

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<v Speaker 2>allowed the mammals to arise about one hundred and forty

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<v Speaker 2>million years ago. This is the one of the triggers

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<v Speaker 2>for the war. Let's go over the first. Give me

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<v Speaker 2>the top one or two circumstances when America was this

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<v Speaker 2>close to a nuclear exchange with the USSR.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's been many situations that have been misunderstanding or miscalculations.

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<v Speaker 3>And yes, I referenced them in the book to indicate

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<v Speaker 3>that it's not just you know, actual adversary attacking, but

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<v Speaker 3>that nuclear war could be started by a miscalculation. And

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<v Speaker 3>I referenced a story that was told to me by

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<v Speaker 3>a former Secretary of Defense when he himself was told

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<v Speaker 3>in error that there were thousands of then Soviet missiles

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<v Speaker 3>coming at the United States, only to learn a few

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<v Speaker 3>minutes later that it was that it was a false alarm.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think the focus really in the book for

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<v Speaker 3>me is on taking the reader through the hypothetical situation

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<v Speaker 3>of how it would unfold in the future, could happen tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 3>A quote from former Stratcom commander General Keeler to me

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<v Speaker 3>kind of lives at the heart and soul of the story.

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<v Speaker 3>He said to me when we were discussing an exchange

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<v Speaker 3>between Russia and the United States and a full scale

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear weapons exchange, he said to me, Annie, the world

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<v Speaker 3>could end in the next couple of hours.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's go over you talk about our satellites parked over

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<v Speaker 2>a nuclear powered enemies of ours. Let's assume the Russian

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<v Speaker 2>satellite killers don't work. I can only imagine if the

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<v Speaker 2>Russian satellite killers work and we're not warned. But let's

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<v Speaker 2>say we're warned. Take us through the scenario of the

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<v Speaker 2>first twenty four minutes, and right now this is in Germain,

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<v Speaker 2>and Joe Biden or Donald Trump, Because it could happen

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<v Speaker 2>at any time. But Joe Biden. Shall we say it

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<v Speaker 2>isn't playing with a full deck of the present time?

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<v Speaker 2>In fact, in the morning one or two o'clock in

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<v Speaker 2>the morning. There was a question asked the other day

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<v Speaker 2>by Fox News about who makes who picks up the

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<v Speaker 2>phone at three o'clock in the morning. Maybe you don't

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<v Speaker 2>have time to pick up the phone. Explain the football

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<v Speaker 2>carried by by the assistance to the President. Take us

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<v Speaker 2>through the first twenty four minutes the first scenario, the

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<v Speaker 2>satellite picks up the exhaust from the nuclear weapon. Take

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<v Speaker 2>us through the first twenty four minutes.

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<v Speaker 3>So it happens incredibly quickly. There are three command bunkers

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<v Speaker 3>in the United States. Ones underneath the Pentagon, the other

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<v Speaker 3>is beneath Stratcom in Nebraska, and then there's another one

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<v Speaker 3>inside Shyenne Mountain, and together with the Nora D officials

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<v Speaker 3>at Peterson Air Force Base. The minute that launch is detected,

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<v Speaker 3>data begins to spin down from that satellite system one

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<v Speaker 3>tenth of the way to the Moon, by the way

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<v Speaker 3>down to these command testers, down to places like the

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<v Speaker 3>Aerospace Data Facility in Colorado, a facility that was classified

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<v Speaker 3>until ten years ago. It's very existence. We didn't even

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<v Speaker 3>know about. The data goes there, and there begins the

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<v Speaker 3>interpretation of data by these massive computer systems together with

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<v Speaker 3>people to determine the trajectory of the ballistic missile launch.

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<v Speaker 3>And as soon as that information is clear, which is

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, one hundred about one hundred seconds into it,

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<v Speaker 3>the officials will know that weapon is headed towards the

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<v Speaker 3>east coast of the United States. If that's where it's been,

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<v Speaker 3>that's where it's coming. And so then you can just

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<v Speaker 3>imagine how it all begins this sequence of events. Now

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<v Speaker 3>the president must be told. The NORAD commander is the

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<v Speaker 3>guy who's going to brief the president. But first another

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<v Speaker 3>element of the Events department is working to get secondary

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<v Speaker 3>confirmation that is required before the President launches a counter attack,

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<v Speaker 3>which he must make before the missile comes in. In

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<v Speaker 3>the next twenty four minutes, you can see the urgency involved.

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<v Speaker 3>I hope readers will read this because I take them

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<v Speaker 3>through seconds and minutes, play by play, the various different

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<v Speaker 3>situations in these different bunkers, all working toward the next

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<v Speaker 3>big moment, which is telling the president he must launch

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<v Speaker 3>a counter attack. That happens secondary confirmation comes in at

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<v Speaker 3>about nine minutes. We have long range radars in Alaska

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<v Speaker 3>that will confirm the missile. And then the president has

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<v Speaker 3>a sixth minute window to decide which weapons to use

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<v Speaker 3>in a counter attack against the person that was foolhardy

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<v Speaker 3>enough to launch against the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>So Annie Jacobson, author of Nuclear War, the first step

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<v Speaker 2>is depicting the launch of the missiles from North Korea

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<v Speaker 2>or Russia or Iran. And that's done under two minutes.

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<v Speaker 2>And then after that two minutes is done, and then

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<v Speaker 2>nine minutes kick in as far as okay, it's coming

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<v Speaker 2>toward Washington, New York, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, whatever. Then after

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<v Speaker 2>that nine minutes, the president has six minutes to make

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<v Speaker 2>the decision. So we're talking about something in the range

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<v Speaker 2>of under twenty minutes. We all could be dead twenty

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<v Speaker 2>minute absolutely.

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<v Speaker 3>And here's an interesting here's an interesting decision tree problem.

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<v Speaker 3>So when I was reporting this, I would exactly as

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<v Speaker 3>you just relate. I would learn about this, and you

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<v Speaker 3>gather the information from the different players. And then I

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<v Speaker 3>got to the point where the president and I thought

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<v Speaker 3>to myself, in wait a minute, I know from previous

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<v Speaker 3>books I've reported that the Secret Service has a mission

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<v Speaker 3>to protect the life of the President of the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>So at that nine or ten minutes, Defense Department Stratcom

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<v Speaker 3>knows the nuclear incoming. A nuclear weapon is headed toward Washington, DC.

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<v Speaker 3>The Secret Service is going to have a different agenda

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<v Speaker 3>than Stratcom. Stratcom is going to want to get the

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<v Speaker 3>president's order for a counter attack. But the Secret Service

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<v Speaker 3>is going to move the President out of the White

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<v Speaker 3>House because that is their duty. And so I interviewed

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<v Speaker 3>the Director of the Secret Service. I interviewed members of

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<v Speaker 3>what's called the HAT Team, the counter assault team, who

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<v Speaker 3>would be in charge of moving the president, to try

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<v Speaker 3>and decide the most realistic scenario that would unfold in

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<v Speaker 3>this moment. And guess what I realized. The people who

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<v Speaker 3>would win in that argument are the ones with the weapons.

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<v Speaker 3>Cat Team carries right long long guns and they are

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<v Speaker 3>going to say, mister President, we are moving you. And

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<v Speaker 3>so then you have a problem with Stratcom saying sir,

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<v Speaker 3>we need the launch codes. Secret Services now moving the

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<v Speaker 3>President trying to get into a nuclear bonker. You have

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<v Speaker 3>decision trees unfolding, and now you're setting things up for

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<v Speaker 3>a series of mistakes and miscalculations. That's what I learned

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<v Speaker 3>that's what I report in the book.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess the fear in your book is that that's

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<v Speaker 2>a mistake. And of course, if North Korea launches five

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<v Speaker 2>nukes at US, that's completely different than Russia launching five

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<v Speaker 2>hundred or one thousand nukes. And describe the second the

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<v Speaker 2>next twenty four minutes, because I don't know if a

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<v Speaker 2>president middle of the night could make a six minute

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<v Speaker 2>decision to kill one hundred million Russians or to kill

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five million North Koreans or fifty million Iranians. What

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<v Speaker 2>does the president go through? And before we get to

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<v Speaker 2>the president, what happens with the president's unavailable? What if

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<v Speaker 2>for some reason he's unavailable, he's somewhere and the person

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<v Speaker 2>that must make the decision can't make it, the president.

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<v Speaker 2>What happens then?

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<v Speaker 3>So for starters, the football which contains the nuclear codes

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<v Speaker 3>is with the president twenty four seven, three sixty five.

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<v Speaker 3>And in my interview with lumer Letti, who was the

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<v Speaker 3>President's lead security on his detail during Clinton, he told

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<v Speaker 3>me a story once when President Clinton tried to get

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<v Speaker 3>into an elevator and he was visiting the Syrian president Assad,

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<v Speaker 3>and assad guys wouldn't let the military aid with the

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<v Speaker 3>football into the elevator, and it was a standoff because

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<v Speaker 3>lumer Letti told me, we are never going to let

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<v Speaker 3>the president be separate from the football, and so the

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<v Speaker 3>football is always with the president if the president is available.

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<v Speaker 3>As one issue, but a more important issue, I believe

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<v Speaker 3>is the lack of information that most presidents have on

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<v Speaker 3>their responsibility to launch nuclear war. That does not come

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<v Speaker 3>from Annie Jacobson's imagination. That is told to me by

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<v Speaker 3>Secretary of Defense former Leon Panetta, who before he was

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<v Speaker 3>SECDAC was the director of the CIA, and before that

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<v Speaker 3>he was President Clinton's chief of staff. And Panetta told

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<v Speaker 3>me that most presidents are underinformed about nuclear war, a

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<v Speaker 3>fact that was confirmed by another Secretary of Defense, Bill Perry.

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<v Speaker 3>They just simply don't want to know. They prefer to

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<v Speaker 3>believe that nuclear war will never happen. And that again

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<v Speaker 3>is another major thread in my book.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, So if the president, here's the question. If the

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<v Speaker 2>president does not make that decision, either he's incapable of

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<v Speaker 2>making it, he is stuttering, he is hesitating, I can't

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<v Speaker 2>do it. What happens then, at the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>six minutes, you got the three steps to launch and

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<v Speaker 2>then you got nine minutes evaluating, Okay, where's it going,

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<v Speaker 2>how many are coming? Then the President must be notified.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't imagine the six minutes in the middle of

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<v Speaker 2>the night, woke up at three o'clock in the morning,

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<v Speaker 2>that president is going to make that do what happened

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<v Speaker 2>to president is frozen and can't make the decision.

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<v Speaker 3>The decision does get made. The decision does get made

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<v Speaker 3>in the scenario that I propose, because you have a

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<v Speaker 3>Stratcom commander and you have a number of defense officials

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<v Speaker 3>who are doing what is known in circles as jamming

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<v Speaker 3>the president. They insist for a counter launch order. And

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<v Speaker 3>when that counter launch order happens, that's when we move

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<v Speaker 3>into the next twenty four minutes. And then you see

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<v Speaker 3>other problems with technology. As I take the reader through

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<v Speaker 3>and again confirmed with me by cabinet members, presidential advisors,

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<v Speaker 3>all kinds of problems unfold with the technology. And what

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<v Speaker 3>ultimately happens in the scenario that I write is that

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<v Speaker 3>Russia misinterprets nuclear missiles coming for them that are in

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<v Speaker 3>fact going for North Korea. And that's because the usicbms

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<v Speaker 3>do not have enough range to target North Korea. Directly

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<v Speaker 3>they must overfly Russia. That's a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 3>spoiler alert. But I hope people will read nuclear war

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<v Speaker 3>scenario win their jaw down so they can understand that

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<v Speaker 3>this is a critical issue. It's a time of peril,

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<v Speaker 3>and people understanding about this is a way to get

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<v Speaker 3>presidents to pay attention to it.

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<v Speaker 2>Any Jacobson, you seem to be implying that it's more

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<v Speaker 2>likely a mistake than I can't imagine Vladimir Putin or

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<v Speaker 2>Kim John Onhn or a Shijao Peing saying, Okay, we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to exchange nuclear weapons with America. Isn't it more

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<v Speaker 2>likely to be a mistake.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that's for readers to decide. In my scenario, I

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<v Speaker 3>use mad king logic, which was conveyed to me by

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<v Speaker 3>the thermonuclear weapons designer Richard Garwin, a founder of Animal

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<v Speaker 3>and also an advisor to all of the presidents on

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear weapons since Eisenhower, and Garwin told me he's now

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<v Speaker 3>in his nineties that what he fears most is mad

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<v Speaker 3>king logic, that there would be a leader with a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear arsenal who would not really care about what happened

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<v Speaker 3>to the rest of the world, and he used the

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<v Speaker 3>phrase a play mois le deluge after me the flood,

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<v Speaker 3>and that is what really made me make the decision

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<v Speaker 3>to set the stage for the nuclear launch the way

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<v Speaker 3>I do in my book.

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<v Speaker 2>I saw a movie about twenty or thirty years ago

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<v Speaker 2>with a Bush forty one look alike. It was watching

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<v Speaker 2>a football game in Kansas City and Ben Affleck was

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<v Speaker 2>the hero, and that had a small indication of what

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<v Speaker 2>would happen to little Kansas City if a nuclear detection

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<v Speaker 2>of nuclear bomb happened. What would America look like if

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<v Speaker 2>five hundred to one thousand thermonuclear by bombs and missiles

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<v Speaker 2>struck us? What would America look like?

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<v Speaker 3>The end of my book details nuclear Winter. That is

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<v Speaker 3>a situation where five billion people, not just Americans, five

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<v Speaker 3>billion people around the world are dead. And again that's

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<v Speaker 3>sourced from scientific facts with people who wrote the original

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<v Speaker 3>Nuclear Winter treatise back in the eighties and the sense

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<v Speaker 3>work for decades to update that using computer models. So,

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<v Speaker 3>after all the soot gets lost it into the air

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<v Speaker 3>from the megafires of nuclear exchange, this sun's rates get

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<v Speaker 3>blocked out, and agriculture fails. We return to our hunter

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<v Speaker 3>gatherer state. That is the sad reality of nuclear war.

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<v Speaker 3>But I will leave you with a.

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<v Speaker 2>Ray of hope.

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<v Speaker 3>Read the book and realize that you can make a

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<v Speaker 3>difference by having a conversation about all of this. Thank

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<v Speaker 3>you to have a conversation before we can't.

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<v Speaker 2>Nuclear war a scenario by Annie Jacobson. It's about four

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<v Speaker 2>hundred pages long and it's it's a scenario. It's possible.

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<v Speaker 2>But when I look at the world today, many think

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<v Speaker 2>it's likely. I pray to God not But Annie Jacobson,

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<v Speaker 2>once again, we've only scratched the surface. But the scenario

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<v Speaker 2>is in the book Nuclear War. And once again, thank

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<v Speaker 2>you for coming on the Bill Cunningham Show. Thank you

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<v Speaker 2>Annie Jacobson very much. Thank you. That's a cheerful thought.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh five, three, seven, four, nine, seven thousand. We become

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<v Speaker 2>hunter gatherers again. Only the strong survive. Maybe in South America.

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<v Speaker 2>On news radio seven hundred ww Wumbia several eight has

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<v Speaker 2>the lowest prises