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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Auction Brief.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a joy in these games or.

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<v Speaker 1>Not, taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law,

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<v Speaker 1>and life. We saw your It depends on how much

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<v Speaker 1>you want.

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<v Speaker 2>And now you're legal analyst and auction draft expert here

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<v Speaker 2>to help you dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew

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<v Speaker 2>da Important There are full hearts. Hey, everybody, welcome into

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<v Speaker 2>the Auction Brief. As the lady said, I'm your host,

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<v Speaker 2>Drew Davinportant. Thank you so much for joining me for

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<v Speaker 2>another episode. We are cruising right along, heading towards the

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<v Speaker 2>middle of July, and you know what that means. In

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<v Speaker 2>just a couple of weeks, training camps will be open.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll be looking at real life football. I can't believe it,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm super stoked by it. And I'm so stoked

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<v Speaker 2>about all the content that we have this summer coming out,

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<v Speaker 2>not just the Auction Brief, but things on the Patreon,

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<v Speaker 2>the Salary Cap Summit, all the stuff that we got

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<v Speaker 2>going on the summer. It's an awesome summer already and

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<v Speaker 2>we have a ton to look forward to. So thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much for being here for the journey. And

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<v Speaker 2>I want to say that today, I want to go

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<v Speaker 2>on a little bit of a journey before we start,

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<v Speaker 2>because I think that I tend to lose that a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit when I start really just baring down and saying, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>let's get right to the info. But I think that

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<v Speaker 2>this show is what it is, and one of the

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<v Speaker 2>things I've been neglecting a little bit lately is just

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<v Speaker 2>that journey, that whole winding our way through how we're

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<v Speaker 2>supposed to be thinking about this stuff. And I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>talking about a whole episode of just the Dow of auctions.

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<v Speaker 2>I realized I was heavy. I get it. I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's important. I think mindset's super important in auctions, so

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<v Speaker 2>I spend a whole episode on it. So I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>telling you to forget it, but I'm saying I want

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<v Speaker 2>to take a little bit of journey before we jump

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<v Speaker 2>right into it. And I love today's topic. As you

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<v Speaker 2>see in the caption, it's six things that nobody tells

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<v Speaker 2>you about auctions. Six things nobody tells you about auctions.

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<v Speaker 2>And I shouldn't say nobody, because this guy what has

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<v Speaker 2>two thumbs and tells you everything you need to know

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<v Speaker 2>about auctions, this guy, right, But I'm serious. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>see these topics being handled anywhere in the fantasy football industry,

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<v Speaker 2>and I understand that auctions are just a critically underserved

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<v Speaker 2>part of the market. You heard Joe Dolan talking a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit about his draft plan. Now that's a guy

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<v Speaker 2>that I would read his draft plan front to back

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<v Speaker 2>and read it a couple times and make sure that

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<v Speaker 2>you internalize it, because Joe knows what he's doing. But

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<v Speaker 2>I'll tell you, I see some articles out there in

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<v Speaker 2>the industry about auctions and they're not good. They're just

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<v Speaker 2>not they're not. Therefore, people who've never done an auction,

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<v Speaker 2>they're like, oh crap, I got to read about this

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<v Speaker 2>because I'm going to my auction in two hours.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>I hope you listen to my man Festa at the

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<v Speaker 2>end of the year. That's about forty five minutes getting

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<v Speaker 2>ready for your auction. That's going to be the last

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<v Speaker 2>episode of the summer. But there's just some things that

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<v Speaker 2>people don't talk about, and there's these articles that are

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<v Speaker 2>just not helping you. And that's what I want to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about today. Six things nobody tells you about auctions.

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<v Speaker 2>And I want to wind our way there a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>I got a nice comment on Twitter this week and I, ah,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna forget the name. I'm really sorry, but somebody said, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>quit talking about the time and about needing to be done,

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<v Speaker 2>and he's right, Like, I bring it up almost every episode,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm I'm really working on it because I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's important to get you information in this day and

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<v Speaker 2>age where long podcasts are an ethema. I just think

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<v Speaker 2>that it's important to get you that information. But I

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<v Speaker 2>want to take a little journey today. And that comment

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<v Speaker 2>really kind of freed me up because I thought to myself,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, he's a little bit He's right, I've been

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<v Speaker 2>stressing it too much, and it's important to have those

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<v Speaker 2>goals and try to keep things brief and help you

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<v Speaker 2>in as quick a time as possible, but it's not

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<v Speaker 2>more important and then getting you where you need to

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<v Speaker 2>be to dominate your auction. So that's what we're gonna do.

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<v Speaker 2>We're gonna take a small, little journey, little meandering talk

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<v Speaker 2>about poker. I'm gonna relate it to the law and

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<v Speaker 2>the consequences of breaking the law. Yeah, we're gonna weave

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<v Speaker 2>that baby together, and it's gonna lead us to our

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<v Speaker 2>topic today. Six things nobody tells you about auctions.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't forget.

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<v Speaker 2>We got the Salary Cap Summit coming up in early August.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the second, third, and fourth of August. That's seven

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<v Speaker 2>pm every night. The first two nights are a live

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<v Speaker 2>auction where I'm gonna be commentating the entire time, two

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<v Speaker 2>plus hours, sometimes almost three hours of live commentary about

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<v Speaker 2>the auction. And then the third night we'll have some

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<v Speaker 2>of the best auction minds in the business. We've got

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<v Speaker 2>Dave Richard from CBS, Scott Pianowski from Yahoo, Jim Coventry

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<v Speaker 2>from Roda Wire. Those are just the guys that are confirmed.

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<v Speaker 2>I've got a lot more invites out, so I hope

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<v Speaker 2>you'll join us there for the Salary Cap Summit. That's

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<v Speaker 2>gonna be on my YouTube page. I keep getting questions

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<v Speaker 2>about that, but you can find my YouTube page. But

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<v Speaker 2>I'll be tweeting out that link over and over all. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>you can find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF,

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<v Speaker 2>on Patreon at the Fantasy Football Lawyer. Don't forget, it's

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<v Speaker 2>just four bucks a month. Nobody in the business is

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<v Speaker 2>putting out targeted auction content that's unique and helpful and actionable.

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<v Speaker 2>Like we are over at the Patreon network. Just four

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<v Speaker 2>bucks a month. It's a bargain.

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<v Speaker 1>All right.

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<v Speaker 2>That's it for the preliminary Let's get into it and

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<v Speaker 2>let's start talking about some stuff that's going to help

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<v Speaker 2>you for your auctions. So let's start today by talking

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<v Speaker 2>about a little poker story that's going to lead us

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<v Speaker 2>into the topic. And the poker story, I call it

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<v Speaker 2>little because it is kind of a short story, but

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<v Speaker 2>it came on the heels of my episode about the

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<v Speaker 2>dow of auctions, about letting things be what they are,

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<v Speaker 2>and a lot of today's topic is about that. It's

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<v Speaker 2>about letting things be what they are, about that illusion

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<v Speaker 2>of control we need to get rid of. But we're

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<v Speaker 2>not going down the same road as the dow auctions.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to take it differently because we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about things that people should tell you, that you

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<v Speaker 2>should be aware of that's going to help settle you

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<v Speaker 2>when you get into the auction room. But the beginning

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<v Speaker 2>of the story is the poker story. And I washed

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<v Speaker 2>a hand unfold. I'm not involved in this hand, and

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<v Speaker 2>the board was Ace King Queen, and then there was

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<v Speaker 2>a nine on the turn and a pot develops between

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<v Speaker 2>three people. It's a three way pot to the turn.

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<v Speaker 2>Ace King Queen nine is the board. There's a guy

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<v Speaker 2>who bets the turn, and a guy raises the turn,

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<v Speaker 2>and the third guy sits there and tanks for a

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<v Speaker 2>while and finally decides that he's going to fold, and

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<v Speaker 2>the original raiser calls that ends up getting just it's

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<v Speaker 2>either checked down or it was a really small bet

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<v Speaker 2>and call on the river. But the guy who had

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<v Speaker 2>made the raise on the turn, it turns out, had nothing.

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<v Speaker 2>He just said absolutely nothing. Now, this is a really

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<v Speaker 2>irrational move on this guy's part. He's in a three

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<v Speaker 2>way pot with an Ace King Queen flop and he's

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<v Speaker 2>in there raising the turn against two opponents on a

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<v Speaker 2>super unfriendly board. This is not a nine to sixth

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<v Speaker 2>deuce board where he can push off some hands like

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<v Speaker 2>Ace King or Ace Queen or pocket sevens. This guy's

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<v Speaker 2>in there just going crazy with a board of you

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<v Speaker 2>know cards that people play, I mean, everybody plays those

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<v Speaker 2>cards that everything matches those cards. So it's a horrible play.

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<v Speaker 2>And the reason I say this is because the guy

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<v Speaker 2>who ended up folding on the turn turns out that

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<v Speaker 2>he had Ace Queen the board was Ace King Queen nine,

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<v Speaker 2>and he folded the urn with Ace Queen, and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>going to tell you right now that's brutal, but I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's the right fold because he doesn't know dipshit

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<v Speaker 2>number two is raising with air on the turn and

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<v Speaker 2>it turns out that the guy who bet and called

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<v Speaker 2>had Ace nine, so he had aces up as well.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just that Ace Queen had a better aces up.

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<v Speaker 2>The problem is you can't account for what that guy

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<v Speaker 2>is doing. And we're gonna talk about this in a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit about expecting the unexpected. We've hit on it

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<v Speaker 2>lightly before, we're gonna go into it a little bit today.

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<v Speaker 2>But you can't account for that stuff. The illusion of

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<v Speaker 2>control you have at the poker table in the auction

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<v Speaker 2>room is just that it's an illusion because that guy

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<v Speaker 2>jumping in the he never should have been in that pot.

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<v Speaker 2>Ace Queen should have won a nice pot against age nine.

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<v Speaker 2>Instead he folds, and again I say, that's the right fold.

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<v Speaker 2>If he's on the turn getting this resistance, somebody could

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<v Speaker 2>have Ace King, somebody could have Jack ten, somebody could

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<v Speaker 2>have a set of nines like this is not a

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<v Speaker 2>bad fold for Mace Queen, but he had to fold

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<v Speaker 2>because of a moron doing something idiotic in the middle

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<v Speaker 2>of the pot. And the reason I tell the story

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<v Speaker 2>is that oftentimes auctions are that thing. It's that illusion

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<v Speaker 2>of control, like if we can just meld this thing

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<v Speaker 2>into what we want it to be. And so I

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to go down that road again, because we

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<v Speaker 2>did this for a whole episode about the Dow auctions.

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<v Speaker 2>But the reason I want to start with this story

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<v Speaker 2>today is because it kind of leads me into I

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<v Speaker 2>was thinking about something the other day when I had

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<v Speaker 2>a case and somebody was talking about, Oh, well, I

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<v Speaker 2>just I didn't even really do anything, and the thing

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<v Speaker 2>was it was a fairly bad I'm not going to

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<v Speaker 2>get into details here. Obviously, that's not something I want

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<v Speaker 2>to do. I'm not betraying anyone's attorney client privilege or anything.

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<v Speaker 2>I just don't want to get in the habit of

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<v Speaker 2>talking specifics about cases on here. I just think that's

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<v Speaker 2>a bad idea and unprofessional. But the bottom line is,

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<v Speaker 2>this guy says to me that he didn't really do anything,

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<v Speaker 2>yet he had caused a substantial risk of physical harm

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<v Speaker 2>to a couple other people. And the thing is his

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<v Speaker 2>original decision wasn't that bad, but it ended up being

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<v Speaker 2>a fairly serious case. And I relate this back to

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<v Speaker 2>the poker story because you know, we have this illusion

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<v Speaker 2>of control, and this guy thought that he had, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>some control in this moment. It turned out really bad.

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<v Speaker 2>And what it made me think of, believe it or not,

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<v Speaker 2>was an auto draft where people make these huge mistakes

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<v Speaker 2>and they kind of don't realize how big a mistakes

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<v Speaker 2>they are. And I think one of the things that

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<v Speaker 2>is something that maybe I should just I should talk

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<v Speaker 2>about it more. I assume everyone knows about par sheets

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<v Speaker 2>and we're not going to get into that today, and

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<v Speaker 2>maybe I'll do about five or ten minutes about that

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<v Speaker 2>on another episode. But par sheets are the way that

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<v Speaker 2>we don't lose control. And what I started thinking about

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<v Speaker 2>with this guy in this case was that the way

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<v Speaker 2>you know, have you ever, you know, you've heard the

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<v Speaker 2>phrase that like, hey, if a law is unjust, we

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<v Speaker 2>should break it. You know, we should feel free to

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<v Speaker 2>break it.

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<v Speaker 1>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>The thing that a lot of people don't follow that

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<v Speaker 2>up with is you're still going to face consequences if

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<v Speaker 2>you break a law, even if that law is unjust.

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<v Speaker 2>And this guy's particular case, he had to face consequences

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<v Speaker 2>even if the men's ray, as they say in law talk,

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<v Speaker 2>but men's ray just means the state of mind. Even

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<v Speaker 2>if his state of mind wasn't committing a crime that series,

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<v Speaker 2>it still faces consequences because of how outsized the results were.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's one of those things that an auction drafts.

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<v Speaker 2>We really have to watch and we really have to

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<v Speaker 2>pay attention to some of those things that I'm saying

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<v Speaker 2>that all of the people out there aren't giving you,

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<v Speaker 2>and they're not giving you enough of it. But the

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<v Speaker 2>way that we walk the balance beam, the way that

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<v Speaker 2>we succeed in these auctions, is by letting go of

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<v Speaker 2>that control and realizing that things are what they are

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<v Speaker 2>and that if you step out of line too far,

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<v Speaker 2>you're going to pay the consequences, regardless of whether you

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<v Speaker 2>intended to or not. Auctions are the ultimate arbiter of truth,

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<v Speaker 2>because if you step out of line, you're going to pay.

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<v Speaker 2>And the way you avoid that is you know, to have.

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<v Speaker 1>Your par sheet.

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<v Speaker 2>And we're going to talk about six ways to avoid

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<v Speaker 2>that today, and that's why I titled it six things

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<v Speaker 2>people don't tell you about auctions, because what they don't

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<v Speaker 2>tell you is that the further you step out of line,

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<v Speaker 2>the greater the consequences are. Just like this guy, and

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<v Speaker 2>you may not intend to, but if you don't pay

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<v Speaker 2>attention to the way that we are fighting that, if

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<v Speaker 2>you don't pay attention to the way to hold that off,

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<v Speaker 2>then you will make outsized mistakes that will lead to

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<v Speaker 2>consequences and you'll walk out of that draft with a

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<v Speaker 2>crappy team, or you'll walk out of that draft with

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<v Speaker 2>a mediocre team or a team that's, hey, maybe it's

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<v Speaker 2>a six and a half when it could have been

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<v Speaker 2>a nine. Maybe it's a seven and a half when

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<v Speaker 2>it could have been a ten. You will suffer those

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00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:40.320
<v Speaker 2>consequences the more you get out of line. And I

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<v Speaker 2>love that guy's decision with the Ace Queen because he

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<v Speaker 2>did not get out of line. And in some circumstances

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<v Speaker 2>he's going to lose money, but I think generally it's

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<v Speaker 2>a positive EV play. And he's a strong, smart player.

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<v Speaker 1>I know the guy.

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<v Speaker 2>I've played poker with him many times, strong, smart, tight rock.

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<v Speaker 2>This guy knows what he's doing long term. That's positive EV.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's what I'm going to tell you about auctions,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's how we're going to start today that sometimes

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<v Speaker 2>being rigid and sometimes walking that straight and narrow with

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<v Speaker 2>your par sheets is the way to success in auctions.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about those six things that nobody tells

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<v Speaker 2>you about auctions auction talk. I want to lead into

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<v Speaker 2>today's topic by talking about number one, which I just reference,

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<v Speaker 2>the rigidity of auctions. And this is something I referenced.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, go check out my appearance on JJ

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<v Speaker 2>zach Reeson's Perspective podcast. I thought it was a really

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<v Speaker 2>great hour and five minutes, I think, and we really

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<v Speaker 2>dove deep into some auction stuff. I think you'll enjoy that. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>that's late Round Perspectives with JJ zachar Reason. But one

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<v Speaker 2>of the things I pointed out to him is something

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<v Speaker 2>that I'm going to leave the show off with today.

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<v Speaker 2>The number one thing is that rigidity could actually be

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<v Speaker 2>a good thing when it comes to auctions, and nobody

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<v Speaker 2>tells you that every auction article I ever see. You

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<v Speaker 2>must be flexible when you get into your auction room.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't be afraid to do something different than what you

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<v Speaker 2>had planned, because that is the beauty of auctions. Yeah,

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00:14:19.000 --> 00:14:21.639
<v Speaker 2>you want to be flexible, absolutely, you want to be flexible.

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<v Speaker 2>But I want to make an important distinction here that

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<v Speaker 2>nobody makes when they talk about auctions, that rigidity of

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<v Speaker 2>purpose prior to the draft is what leads to your

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<v Speaker 2>ability to be flexible once you're.

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<v Speaker 1>In the draft.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me say that again, rigidity of purpose before the

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00:14:40.320 --> 00:14:44.039
<v Speaker 2>draft is what leads to your ability to be flexible

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00:14:44.200 --> 00:14:48.159
<v Speaker 2>while you're in the draft. The planning you do, we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to talk about that in a little bit. The

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00:14:50.200 --> 00:14:54.600
<v Speaker 2>framework that you have both in mindset and in your

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00:14:55.679 --> 00:14:58.960
<v Speaker 2>nuts and bolts preparation about what guys you're targeting, what

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00:14:59.039 --> 00:15:01.279
<v Speaker 2>prices you like, what you're going to do in your

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<v Speaker 2>par sheet, the way you're going to attack the draft,

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<v Speaker 2>how you're going to weave your way through the draft.

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<v Speaker 2>Early on, I'm going to try this a quarter of

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<v Speaker 2>the way through. I want to be doing this a

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00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.120
<v Speaker 2>half the way through. I want to be here three

296
00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:15.919
<v Speaker 2>quarters of the way through. I want to be here

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<v Speaker 2>that attack. It all matters. And so I really believe

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<v Speaker 2>that rigidity of purpose is what allows the flexibility, and

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<v Speaker 2>that goes back to the par sheets first and foremost.

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<v Speaker 2>That everybody says, and I don't even discuss this with

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00:15:31.320 --> 00:15:33.840
<v Speaker 2>industry folks. I'm just here to tell you. Do you

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00:15:33.879 --> 00:15:36.120
<v Speaker 2>ever hear me talk about par sheets with my guests?

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00:15:37.159 --> 00:15:41.559
<v Speaker 2>I don't because I believe that most analysts, and this

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00:15:41.600 --> 00:15:45.879
<v Speaker 2>is not a character flaw, this is confidence. Most analysts

305
00:15:45.879 --> 00:15:47.759
<v Speaker 2>believe they can just go into an auction room and

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00:15:47.799 --> 00:15:50.080
<v Speaker 2>they don't need that stuff. They don't need to have

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00:15:50.200 --> 00:15:53.200
<v Speaker 2>numbers written down, they don't need the exact numbers. They think,

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00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:56.120
<v Speaker 2>now that limits me, and that very well could be true.

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00:15:56.440 --> 00:15:58.759
<v Speaker 2>But number one, I'd say, you're not Jim Coventry and

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00:15:58.799 --> 00:16:01.840
<v Speaker 2>you're not JJ Zacharica, and neither am I. So that's

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00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:04.639
<v Speaker 2>that's number one. But number two, I mean it's more

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00:16:04.679 --> 00:16:07.559
<v Speaker 2>than that. It's more than that because fantasy football analysts

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00:16:07.600 --> 00:16:10.200
<v Speaker 2>are very confident in their ability to handle these things.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's okay. So they tend to say, hey, maybe

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00:16:13.919 --> 00:16:15.600
<v Speaker 2>that's going to make me a little too rigid. Okay,

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00:16:15.600 --> 00:16:18.159
<v Speaker 2>that's fine for them, but for us. For me, I

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00:16:18.240 --> 00:16:20.639
<v Speaker 2>use par sheets. I want you to use them. I

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00:16:20.720 --> 00:16:24.960
<v Speaker 2>believe there's a correlation to success there, and so that

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00:16:25.080 --> 00:16:27.960
<v Speaker 2>rigidity allows the flexibility in the draft, first of all,

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<v Speaker 2>and then I also believe when I say the rigidity

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00:16:31.200 --> 00:16:34.559
<v Speaker 2>of purpose and the framework, part of that's record keeping.

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00:16:34.600 --> 00:16:36.080
<v Speaker 2>I know people don't want to hear that, but part

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00:16:36.080 --> 00:16:38.679
<v Speaker 2>of that's record keeping. You just have to know cold

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00:16:39.080 --> 00:16:42.679
<v Speaker 2>exactly what everybody has. And when I say rigidity of purpose,

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00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:46.240
<v Speaker 2>I'm talking about that attack and that framework that we

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00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:49.480
<v Speaker 2>come up with before the draft and the way that we're.

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00:16:49.320 --> 00:16:50.320
<v Speaker 1>Going to walk through the draft.

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<v Speaker 2>And sometimes that's going to go wrong, but you know

329
00:16:52.320 --> 00:16:54.639
<v Speaker 2>what it's going to go wrong, and you're going to go, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>I was going to attack running back here, but Hardy

331
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<v Speaker 2>got one because I had such a deal earlier, and

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<v Speaker 2>so no can move.

333
00:17:00.639 --> 00:17:01.960
<v Speaker 1>I can go a different way.

334
00:17:02.600 --> 00:17:05.119
<v Speaker 2>But if you're just floating through the draft without that attack,

335
00:17:05.160 --> 00:17:08.359
<v Speaker 2>without that purpose, without that framework, that's what you're gonna do.

336
00:17:08.400 --> 00:17:10.680
<v Speaker 2>You're gonna float through and things are going to happen

337
00:17:10.759 --> 00:17:14.279
<v Speaker 2>to you rather than you dictated. And two or three

338
00:17:14.279 --> 00:17:16.839
<v Speaker 2>summers ago, I really got on a kick about forcing

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00:17:17.039 --> 00:17:19.319
<v Speaker 2>people's hands, and I want to talk about that a

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00:17:19.319 --> 00:17:21.960
<v Speaker 2>little bit more this summer, not today, but I want

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00:17:21.960 --> 00:17:23.359
<v Speaker 2>you to keep that in the back of your mind,

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00:17:23.759 --> 00:17:26.680
<v Speaker 2>that making people uncomfortable and forcing people's hands is how

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00:17:26.720 --> 00:17:29.640
<v Speaker 2>you do it. And the way that you approach things

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00:17:30.240 --> 00:17:33.920
<v Speaker 2>is by staying focused, by staying rigid in your focus

345
00:17:33.960 --> 00:17:36.359
<v Speaker 2>of how you want to attack the auction. Don't just

346
00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:39.799
<v Speaker 2>abandon your plan two rounds in because things aren't going perfect.

347
00:17:40.079 --> 00:17:41.599
<v Speaker 2>Look at your plan and say, okay, now, how do

348
00:17:41.640 --> 00:17:42.160
<v Speaker 2>we adjust?

349
00:17:42.319 --> 00:17:42.759
<v Speaker 1>How do I.

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<v Speaker 2>Still drive towards my goals?

351
00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:47.279
<v Speaker 1>If you never have the goals in the first place,

352
00:17:47.279 --> 00:17:48.279
<v Speaker 1>how are you going to do that? Right?

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<v Speaker 2>How are you going to do that? So the rigidity

354
00:17:51.400 --> 00:17:55.440
<v Speaker 2>of preparation, of laying your framework of your attack, you're planning,

355
00:17:55.759 --> 00:17:58.480
<v Speaker 2>all that stuff allows you to be flexible and nimble

356
00:17:58.519 --> 00:18:00.839
<v Speaker 2>when you get in the draft. I really believe that

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<v Speaker 2>that's point number one, that something that nobody tells you

358
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<v Speaker 2>about auctions, rigidity is important, and it leads to your

359
00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:11.119
<v Speaker 2>flexibility and it leads to the next level elite rosters.

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<v Speaker 1>All right.

361
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<v Speaker 2>The second thing that nobody tells you about auctions is

362
00:18:22.480 --> 00:18:25.359
<v Speaker 2>a new term for this summer. It's something new I

363
00:18:25.359 --> 00:18:29.000
<v Speaker 2>want to introduce, and that is that there is such

364
00:18:29.039 --> 00:18:32.000
<v Speaker 2>a thing called a tweener. All right, do we know

365
00:18:32.079 --> 00:18:35.240
<v Speaker 2>the phrase tweener? Somebody who's a little bit in between

366
00:18:35.799 --> 00:18:39.240
<v Speaker 2>a guy who can't really be a shooting guard. He's

367
00:18:39.279 --> 00:18:41.440
<v Speaker 2>not really a small forward. He's a little bit of

368
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<v Speaker 2>a you know what, I mean, there are guys in

369
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<v Speaker 2>sports that are just tweeners. They are players who aren't

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<v Speaker 2>really one thing and they aren't really another. And why

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<v Speaker 2>am I introducing this phrase this year? You're not going

372
00:18:53.880 --> 00:18:55.880
<v Speaker 2>to be shocked at all. But I'm bringing up Jackson

373
00:18:55.920 --> 00:18:59.559
<v Speaker 2>Smith and Jigua again because you know me, I'm a

374
00:18:59.599 --> 00:19:04.200
<v Speaker 2>bit of a psycho. I'm a bit of a nut job.

375
00:19:04.359 --> 00:19:07.319
<v Speaker 2>And when there's something like that, do you remember how

376
00:19:07.480 --> 00:19:09.640
<v Speaker 2>nuts I was about Stefan Diggs when he went to

377
00:19:09.640 --> 00:19:12.279
<v Speaker 2>Buffalo and I missed it. Well, that's how nuts I

378
00:19:12.319 --> 00:19:15.079
<v Speaker 2>am about JASN. I actually caught it this time, and

379
00:19:15.160 --> 00:19:17.640
<v Speaker 2>I actually ended up with him. And I want to

380
00:19:17.640 --> 00:19:20.200
<v Speaker 2>know why I didn't see it ahead of time, and

381
00:19:20.240 --> 00:19:22.519
<v Speaker 2>I want to be able to put a name to

382
00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:26.880
<v Speaker 2>what happened with JSN. And so it keeps grinding in

383
00:19:26.960 --> 00:19:29.039
<v Speaker 2>my brain. I just like I work on it in

384
00:19:29.079 --> 00:19:31.240
<v Speaker 2>the background. It's almost like I'm putting a program on

385
00:19:31.359 --> 00:19:33.000
<v Speaker 2>in the background and my brain is just going to

386
00:19:33.039 --> 00:19:34.799
<v Speaker 2>work on it until I figure out what it is.

387
00:19:35.680 --> 00:19:37.759
<v Speaker 2>And I think I hit on something big a couple

388
00:19:37.759 --> 00:19:41.200
<v Speaker 2>of days ago. And that's the tweenier concept. And the

389
00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:44.960
<v Speaker 2>reason that JSN play worked last year was because there

390
00:19:45.000 --> 00:19:49.759
<v Speaker 2>are guys who I believe don't qualify to be considered

391
00:19:49.839 --> 00:19:52.279
<v Speaker 2>as a certain type of player, a certain level of player,

392
00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:55.960
<v Speaker 2>not type level of player, but yet you don't really

393
00:19:56.000 --> 00:19:59.200
<v Speaker 2>want them as a lower level player. You don't think

394
00:19:59.240 --> 00:20:01.279
<v Speaker 2>they really deserve to be a higher level. It's like,

395
00:20:01.640 --> 00:20:03.680
<v Speaker 2>I don't really know what to do with this guy,

396
00:20:03.799 --> 00:20:06.799
<v Speaker 2>and that's why JSN fell last year. And I want

397
00:20:06.799 --> 00:20:10.160
<v Speaker 2>you to think of the phrase, well, I don't really

398
00:20:10.200 --> 00:20:14.000
<v Speaker 2>want him as my blank. Well, I don't really want

399
00:20:14.039 --> 00:20:17.359
<v Speaker 2>him as my wide receiver one. Well I don't really

400
00:20:17.400 --> 00:20:20.200
<v Speaker 2>want him as my RB one. I don't really want

401
00:20:20.279 --> 00:20:23.319
<v Speaker 2>him as my RB two. And I want you to

402
00:20:23.319 --> 00:20:26.839
<v Speaker 2>think of that phrase, because there are certain types of

403
00:20:26.839 --> 00:20:31.359
<v Speaker 2>players that people see as good players. But for example,

404
00:20:31.400 --> 00:20:34.039
<v Speaker 2>with JSN last summer, it was, well, I don't really

405
00:20:34.039 --> 00:20:36.079
<v Speaker 2>see him as my wide receiver one. He's not my

406
00:20:36.200 --> 00:20:39.599
<v Speaker 2>building block. That's why he was cheaper. But he wasn't

407
00:20:39.640 --> 00:20:42.640
<v Speaker 2>cheap enough to be a true wide receiver two price.

408
00:20:43.680 --> 00:20:46.440
<v Speaker 2>So what ended up happening was he fell through the cracks.

409
00:20:47.119 --> 00:20:49.079
<v Speaker 2>And when I say the cracks, I mean he fell

410
00:20:49.119 --> 00:20:52.440
<v Speaker 2>in that weird range between wide receiver two and wide

411
00:20:52.480 --> 00:20:56.000
<v Speaker 2>receiver one. He didn't go for forty two, but he

412
00:20:56.039 --> 00:20:58.640
<v Speaker 2>didn't go for twenty eight. He was in that weird

413
00:20:58.720 --> 00:21:01.799
<v Speaker 2>range where he was sort of a tweener. He was

414
00:21:01.880 --> 00:21:04.079
<v Speaker 2>in between a wide receiver one and two. And so

415
00:21:04.160 --> 00:21:06.720
<v Speaker 2>what ends up happening in an auction is something that

416
00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:09.920
<v Speaker 2>doesn't happen in a snake. And that's why this is

417
00:21:09.960 --> 00:21:13.200
<v Speaker 2>the number two thing that nobody tells you about auctions,

418
00:21:13.839 --> 00:21:18.480
<v Speaker 2>is that those tweeners can make your roster explode. And

419
00:21:18.519 --> 00:21:22.640
<v Speaker 2>that's what happened with JSN last summer. And why is that, Well,

420
00:21:22.680 --> 00:21:25.079
<v Speaker 2>it's because you can do one of two things. You

421
00:21:25.119 --> 00:21:27.839
<v Speaker 2>can either draft him as a wide receiver one in

422
00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:32.079
<v Speaker 2>your auction and then you've saved money by paying less

423
00:21:32.119 --> 00:21:35.400
<v Speaker 2>for that wide receiver one. Or you can draft him

424
00:21:35.400 --> 00:21:39.440
<v Speaker 2>as your wide receiver two and you have a dynamite

425
00:21:39.440 --> 00:21:41.680
<v Speaker 2>wide receiver two and pay up for a wide receiver one.

426
00:21:41.720 --> 00:21:43.759
<v Speaker 2>Now I know you've spent more money there, but the

427
00:21:43.799 --> 00:21:46.920
<v Speaker 2>whole point is your wide receiver two then performs like

428
00:21:46.960 --> 00:21:51.000
<v Speaker 2>a wide receiver one. JSN was high wide receiver two.

429
00:21:51.079 --> 00:21:53.880
<v Speaker 2>Price that performed like a high wide receiver one. Now

430
00:21:53.880 --> 00:21:56.079
<v Speaker 2>we're not always going to find that guy, and I

431
00:21:56.119 --> 00:21:57.559
<v Speaker 2>want to tell you I'm going to give you some

432
00:21:57.680 --> 00:22:01.160
<v Speaker 2>of my ideas today. Some guys that I'm looking at

433
00:22:01.200 --> 00:22:03.960
<v Speaker 2>as tweeners, because I know you guys like that. But

434
00:22:04.599 --> 00:22:08.240
<v Speaker 2>I want to stress to you that this might be

435
00:22:08.279 --> 00:22:10.160
<v Speaker 2>a bit of a feudal exercise. So I don't want

436
00:22:10.160 --> 00:22:11.960
<v Speaker 2>to spend a bunch of time breaking these guys down

437
00:22:12.039 --> 00:22:14.319
<v Speaker 2>like I did last week, like he has this many

438
00:22:14.319 --> 00:22:15.559
<v Speaker 2>points per game and this coaching.

439
00:22:15.759 --> 00:22:16.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm not doing that.

440
00:22:16.720 --> 00:22:18.240
<v Speaker 2>I'm just going to give you a list here of

441
00:22:18.319 --> 00:22:22.000
<v Speaker 2>guys and a brief comment because I really believe that

442
00:22:22.119 --> 00:22:24.839
<v Speaker 2>this is determined by what happens in your draft room.

443
00:22:25.240 --> 00:22:27.400
<v Speaker 2>You don't know which guys are going to qualify as

444
00:22:27.400 --> 00:22:29.759
<v Speaker 2>tweeners really till you get in there. Because if you'd

445
00:22:29.799 --> 00:22:32.079
<v Speaker 2>asked me last summer, just jasn qualify as a tweener,

446
00:22:32.079 --> 00:22:34.799
<v Speaker 2>well know, he really doesn't because he's supposed to be

447
00:22:34.839 --> 00:22:36.680
<v Speaker 2>a wide receiver. One I wouldn't have I wouldn't have

448
00:22:36.680 --> 00:22:39.440
<v Speaker 2>picked up on that. So I'm trying to name some

449
00:22:39.519 --> 00:22:42.319
<v Speaker 2>guys because now that I'm onto the concept, I want

450
00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:44.119
<v Speaker 2>to start trying to predict these tweeners.

451
00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:45.119
<v Speaker 1>I think that's important.

452
00:22:45.480 --> 00:22:49.200
<v Speaker 2>But but but but it's really going to be room dependent,

453
00:22:49.680 --> 00:22:51.960
<v Speaker 2>and that's that's not a hedge. I promise you it's

454
00:22:52.039 --> 00:22:54.359
<v Speaker 2>it's not, because there are going to be some rooms

455
00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:57.400
<v Speaker 2>that see certain players differently and you're gonna go, oh

456
00:22:57.400 --> 00:22:58.559
<v Speaker 2>my god, I can have this guy as a wide

457
00:22:58.559 --> 00:23:00.920
<v Speaker 2>receiver three, but he's a really nice top end wide

458
00:23:00.920 --> 00:23:03.839
<v Speaker 2>receiver two. And you get that wide receiver price because

459
00:23:03.920 --> 00:23:06.920
<v Speaker 2>that wide receiver three price, because everyone sees them as

460
00:23:06.920 --> 00:23:09.559
<v Speaker 2>a twiner, Like, I'm not paying that for my wide

461
00:23:09.559 --> 00:23:13.200
<v Speaker 2>receiver three. But that's the beauty of auctions. You can't

462
00:23:13.240 --> 00:23:16.680
<v Speaker 2>do that in a serpentine. It's only there's only a

463
00:23:16.720 --> 00:23:19.440
<v Speaker 2>small subset of players that are available to you, and

464
00:23:19.480 --> 00:23:22.000
<v Speaker 2>more often than not, they have to slot in where

465
00:23:22.039 --> 00:23:24.759
<v Speaker 2>they slot in. It doesn't matter, you can't. There's nothing

466
00:23:24.839 --> 00:23:27.400
<v Speaker 2>you can do about that. Auctions you can take advantage

467
00:23:27.440 --> 00:23:29.640
<v Speaker 2>of that. So let's talk a little bit about some

468
00:23:29.759 --> 00:23:33.680
<v Speaker 2>tweeners here, because I really believe that nobody talks about

469
00:23:33.680 --> 00:23:35.920
<v Speaker 2>this stuff when it comes to auctions, and I believe

470
00:23:35.960 --> 00:23:39.000
<v Speaker 2>a lot of your positive ev is in finding these

471
00:23:39.039 --> 00:23:42.920
<v Speaker 2>things and finding these players, all right, your positive expected

472
00:23:43.000 --> 00:23:46.279
<v Speaker 2>value comes from finding these edges and auctions that aren't

473
00:23:46.319 --> 00:23:50.599
<v Speaker 2>available in a snake draft. So let's first talk about

474
00:23:50.799 --> 00:23:53.200
<v Speaker 2>quarterback and the only guy that I have for you

475
00:23:53.279 --> 00:23:56.160
<v Speaker 2>right now that's popping out is Kyler Murray. And I

476
00:23:56.279 --> 00:23:58.559
<v Speaker 2>just want to tell you how thrilled I am to

477
00:23:58.680 --> 00:24:02.400
<v Speaker 2>say that I think that Kyler Murray is back as

478
00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:06.799
<v Speaker 2>a fantasy option on the menu. That is to say,

479
00:24:06.799 --> 00:24:08.680
<v Speaker 2>if you don't know me, I'm not thrilled at all,

480
00:24:08.759 --> 00:24:11.079
<v Speaker 2>because I think he generally kind of sucks. All right,

481
00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:15.480
<v Speaker 2>he's a mediocre NFL quarterback. But I think you can

482
00:24:15.559 --> 00:24:18.119
<v Speaker 2>kind of say the same thing about Sam Darnold. He

483
00:24:18.240 --> 00:24:20.519
<v Speaker 2>landed with Kevin O'Connell and some good receivers and had

484
00:24:20.519 --> 00:24:23.279
<v Speaker 2>a great year. He landed in Seattle with some good

485
00:24:23.359 --> 00:24:26.000
<v Speaker 2>receivers and a good offensive mine and had a good year.

486
00:24:26.440 --> 00:24:30.160
<v Speaker 2>I think you can elevate mediocre quarterbacks. I don't think Darnald.

487
00:24:30.200 --> 00:24:32.279
<v Speaker 2>I wouldn't necessarily call him mediocre, but I wouldn't call

488
00:24:32.359 --> 00:24:35.759
<v Speaker 2>him top shelf. He's like, what fourteenth best or something,

489
00:24:35.799 --> 00:24:38.319
<v Speaker 2>you know what I mean, Like thirteenth best, Like, I

490
00:24:38.319 --> 00:24:40.519
<v Speaker 2>don't know, maybe that's not mediocre, Maybe that's pretty good.

491
00:24:41.279 --> 00:24:42.119
<v Speaker 1>But my point with.

492
00:24:42.119 --> 00:24:45.599
<v Speaker 2>Kyler Murray is he's landing in the best offensive situation.

493
00:24:45.759 --> 00:24:48.920
<v Speaker 2>I think maybe of his entire career. He has two

494
00:24:49.000 --> 00:24:51.119
<v Speaker 2>really good receivers and they just signed a third one.

495
00:24:51.119 --> 00:24:53.480
<v Speaker 2>He's got a good tight end, he's got a strong

496
00:24:53.559 --> 00:24:58.240
<v Speaker 2>offensive coach who is a excellent quarterback coach. And I'm

497
00:24:58.240 --> 00:25:00.880
<v Speaker 2>just going to say it right now, Murray as QB

498
00:25:01.000 --> 00:25:03.519
<v Speaker 2>seventeen is a bit stupid. I mean, the guy has

499
00:25:04.000 --> 00:25:06.559
<v Speaker 2>rushing potential, he's in a great situation. It's the best

500
00:25:06.559 --> 00:25:09.720
<v Speaker 2>situation of his career. QB seventeen stupid. I have to

501
00:25:09.759 --> 00:25:12.480
<v Speaker 2>think that's a reflection of the fact that people aren't

502
00:25:12.480 --> 00:25:14.319
<v Speaker 2>sure that he's going to win the job. But let

503
00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:16.880
<v Speaker 2>me tell you something, he's winning the job. Kevin O'Connell,

504
00:25:16.920 --> 00:25:18.319
<v Speaker 2>believe it or not. I think he's a great coach,

505
00:25:18.319 --> 00:25:20.039
<v Speaker 2>but I think he's coaching for his job this year.

506
00:25:20.559 --> 00:25:22.640
<v Speaker 2>If they don't look pretty good, he's coaching for his job.

507
00:25:23.400 --> 00:25:25.559
<v Speaker 2>You know, I'm not a JJ McCarthy guy. I took

508
00:25:25.559 --> 00:25:28.079
<v Speaker 2>a chance on him in my homekeeper league and really

509
00:25:28.119 --> 00:25:30.920
<v Speaker 2>thought they would give him more time to develop. But

510
00:25:30.960 --> 00:25:32.640
<v Speaker 2>they panicked a little bit. And there's a point I

511
00:25:32.640 --> 00:25:34.920
<v Speaker 2>want to make here that I think is a pretty

512
00:25:34.920 --> 00:25:37.759
<v Speaker 2>important point that I kind of referenced early in the summer.

513
00:25:38.200 --> 00:25:40.079
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if you've ever heard a coach talk

514
00:25:40.119 --> 00:25:42.559
<v Speaker 2>about a guy that they brought in in the draft, like, hey,

515
00:25:42.559 --> 00:25:45.000
<v Speaker 2>we've got this guy in the second round and we're

516
00:25:45.000 --> 00:25:48.680
<v Speaker 2>really excited about him, and then they just barely play,

517
00:25:48.960 --> 00:25:51.880
<v Speaker 2>or the coach says, yeah, he's got a lot of growth,

518
00:25:51.920 --> 00:25:53.359
<v Speaker 2>he's got a lot of things he needs to do.

519
00:25:53.400 --> 00:25:56.440
<v Speaker 2>You know, that's coach speak for this guy sucks. Okay,

520
00:25:57.559 --> 00:26:01.039
<v Speaker 2>because in the off season coaches pump player up relentlessly,

521
00:26:01.079 --> 00:26:02.839
<v Speaker 2>and if they're not saying something nice, they're saying that

522
00:26:02.839 --> 00:26:06.319
<v Speaker 2>guy sucks. Point being, when coaches are around players every

523
00:26:06.400 --> 00:26:09.160
<v Speaker 2>day at practice, they know and have you ever heard

524
00:26:09.279 --> 00:26:12.480
<v Speaker 2>coach say, yeah, boy, we got this guy in and

525
00:26:12.799 --> 00:26:16.319
<v Speaker 2>we realized immediately he couldn't play. That happens a lot.

526
00:26:16.839 --> 00:26:19.680
<v Speaker 2>It happens a lot more than we realize. These guys

527
00:26:19.680 --> 00:26:22.079
<v Speaker 2>suddenly get every day access to a player and their

528
00:26:22.119 --> 00:26:25.240
<v Speaker 2>habits and their abilities and the way they go about things.

529
00:26:25.680 --> 00:26:27.960
<v Speaker 2>All of a sudden, the coach goes, oh, man, we

530
00:26:28.039 --> 00:26:30.480
<v Speaker 2>messed up. This guy sucks and there's nothing they can

531
00:26:30.519 --> 00:26:31.960
<v Speaker 2>do about it because they just drafted him in the

532
00:26:31.960 --> 00:26:34.079
<v Speaker 2>second round or late first round or whatever.

533
00:26:34.759 --> 00:26:36.240
<v Speaker 1>And I think there's something to that.

534
00:26:36.759 --> 00:26:39.480
<v Speaker 2>I liken it to the Ken Walker Zach Sharboney thing,

535
00:26:40.039 --> 00:26:42.640
<v Speaker 2>and that is that they didn't want to make Ken

536
00:26:42.680 --> 00:26:44.720
<v Speaker 2>Walker a bellcow because they didn't want it to be heard.

537
00:26:45.279 --> 00:26:47.319
<v Speaker 2>And when you're around a player every day, you know

538
00:26:47.440 --> 00:26:49.599
<v Speaker 2>what the strengths of those players are. Maybe Walker is

539
00:26:49.599 --> 00:26:51.839
<v Speaker 2>a garbage goal line back now. I think that he

540
00:26:51.880 --> 00:26:54.599
<v Speaker 2>had some success late last year when Charbonay was hurt.

541
00:26:54.839 --> 00:26:57.279
<v Speaker 2>But all I want to point out is that coaches know,

542
00:26:58.039 --> 00:27:01.039
<v Speaker 2>and I'm pretty sure that the coach in Minnesota knows

543
00:27:01.200 --> 00:27:04.079
<v Speaker 2>that JJ McCarthy doesn't have it. I'm pretty sure that's

544
00:27:04.319 --> 00:27:07.799
<v Speaker 2>why we're seeing Kyler Murray because it's a puzzling move otherwise.

545
00:27:08.559 --> 00:27:10.599
<v Speaker 2>So anyway, I think that Kyler Murray makes a good

546
00:27:10.640 --> 00:27:15.279
<v Speaker 2>tweiner because the guy's QB seventeen, and nobody wants to

547
00:27:15.279 --> 00:27:16.839
<v Speaker 2>go in there and say, yeah, he's my QB one,

548
00:27:17.359 --> 00:27:19.480
<v Speaker 2>So they're like, eah, i'd rather have him as a

549
00:27:19.519 --> 00:27:22.440
<v Speaker 2>QB two. And so you're not going to get him

550
00:27:22.440 --> 00:27:25.000
<v Speaker 2>for a dollar or two, but you're also not gonna

551
00:27:25.000 --> 00:27:27.680
<v Speaker 2>have to pay eight dollars or nine dollars or ten

552
00:27:27.720 --> 00:27:29.880
<v Speaker 2>dollars because nobody wants to make him their QB one.

553
00:27:30.160 --> 00:27:31.839
<v Speaker 2>So I think he's a perfect tweener. I think that

554
00:27:31.920 --> 00:27:33.960
<v Speaker 2>you can get him as your QB one, but you're

555
00:27:33.960 --> 00:27:36.039
<v Speaker 2>just gonna have to spend three six bucks on him.

556
00:27:36.160 --> 00:27:39.160
<v Speaker 2>And that's okay because if he performs like a top

557
00:27:39.200 --> 00:27:40.400
<v Speaker 2>eight quarterback, that's a.

558
00:27:40.359 --> 00:27:41.799
<v Speaker 1>Bargain, all right.

559
00:27:42.200 --> 00:27:44.920
<v Speaker 2>Running back tweeners a couple of guys I'm looking at

560
00:27:45.160 --> 00:27:48.680
<v Speaker 2>David Montgomery and DeAndre Swift. They're both at the bottom

561
00:27:48.680 --> 00:27:51.680
<v Speaker 2>of RB two territory right now, so nobody really values

562
00:27:51.720 --> 00:27:54.359
<v Speaker 2>them as a strong RB two and I think there's

563
00:27:54.400 --> 00:27:57.920
<v Speaker 2>a chance now Swift I'm less bullished on, but I

564
00:27:57.960 --> 00:28:00.759
<v Speaker 2>do think that he's a lock to be mid RB two.

565
00:28:01.039 --> 00:28:03.319
<v Speaker 2>I don't think comment on is specially not think he's

566
00:28:03.319 --> 00:28:05.720
<v Speaker 2>just suddenly going to take over. Swift is gonna be

567
00:28:05.759 --> 00:28:08.920
<v Speaker 2>plenty involved. It's the same thing that wasn't Detroit. I

568
00:28:08.960 --> 00:28:10.759
<v Speaker 2>think when I was gonna come in there and you know,

569
00:28:10.799 --> 00:28:13.319
<v Speaker 2>take some goal on stuff and be paying the butt

570
00:28:13.359 --> 00:28:16.839
<v Speaker 2>for Swift. But they're both being drafted at the bottom

571
00:28:16.880 --> 00:28:19.000
<v Speaker 2>of RB two territory, and a lot of people are

572
00:28:19.000 --> 00:28:20.440
<v Speaker 2>saying that I don't really want to pay that for

573
00:28:20.559 --> 00:28:24.559
<v Speaker 2>my RB two. Great, great, because I'll pay that and

574
00:28:24.640 --> 00:28:27.960
<v Speaker 2>make my RB three, or I'll pay that as my

575
00:28:28.119 --> 00:28:31.480
<v Speaker 2>RB two cheap RB two money and I'm gonna get

576
00:28:31.559 --> 00:28:34.559
<v Speaker 2>top of the RB two production or mid RB two production,

577
00:28:34.640 --> 00:28:37.119
<v Speaker 2>whatever the case may be. They look like some tweeers.

578
00:28:37.359 --> 00:28:40.119
<v Speaker 2>Another a couple of guys that are down the list,

579
00:28:40.200 --> 00:28:43.519
<v Speaker 2>Jordan Mason and Jonathan Brooks. These are guys that I

580
00:28:43.559 --> 00:28:45.640
<v Speaker 2>don't want to spend a lot of money on, but

581
00:28:45.640 --> 00:28:49.079
<v Speaker 2>that I think have some asymmetric upside. These aren't asymmetric plays,

582
00:28:49.400 --> 00:28:51.319
<v Speaker 2>but I think they could be tweeners because I think

583
00:28:51.359 --> 00:28:55.480
<v Speaker 2>people aren't going to want to spend on these two

584
00:28:55.559 --> 00:28:59.200
<v Speaker 2>guys when they do have the potential to deliver numbers

585
00:28:59.240 --> 00:29:03.759
<v Speaker 2>that are far outweighing you know what their current view

586
00:29:04.000 --> 00:29:06.920
<v Speaker 2>is the bottom of RB four territory. People are kind

587
00:29:06.920 --> 00:29:09.680
<v Speaker 2>of like, Eah, these guys aren't really RB three's when

588
00:29:09.680 --> 00:29:12.000
<v Speaker 2>in fact that's actually what they could be for your team.

589
00:29:12.559 --> 00:29:16.079
<v Speaker 2>At wide receiver. I got three different guys. Nico Collins

590
00:29:16.200 --> 00:29:19.440
<v Speaker 2>is interesting to me as a tweener because I believe

591
00:29:19.480 --> 00:29:22.359
<v Speaker 2>that when we go into these drafts, I'm really thinking

592
00:29:22.400 --> 00:29:26.200
<v Speaker 2>that we're not going to see low forties prices for Nico,

593
00:29:26.759 --> 00:29:28.799
<v Speaker 2>So I think he could be in a JSN situation,

594
00:29:28.960 --> 00:29:32.079
<v Speaker 2>not that he's gonna have one hundred and twenty billion targets.

595
00:29:32.160 --> 00:29:33.640
<v Speaker 2>Just that I think it could be in a JSN

596
00:29:33.680 --> 00:29:35.640
<v Speaker 2>situation where you can get him as a wide receiver

597
00:29:35.720 --> 00:29:38.599
<v Speaker 2>two because people aren't going to want to pay that

598
00:29:38.720 --> 00:29:40.599
<v Speaker 2>price for him. They're not going to want to pay

599
00:29:41.279 --> 00:29:44.599
<v Speaker 2>thirty eight thirty six for the wide receiver too. But

600
00:29:44.680 --> 00:29:47.240
<v Speaker 2>if you can budget that in and grab Nico as

601
00:29:47.240 --> 00:29:49.559
<v Speaker 2>a wide receiver two, man, that's dynamite stuff. But the

602
00:29:49.559 --> 00:29:53.440
<v Speaker 2>two guys that I think are most interesting is DeVante

603
00:29:53.559 --> 00:29:56.000
<v Speaker 2>Smith and George Pickens. Now I've already talked about Smith,

604
00:29:56.519 --> 00:29:59.039
<v Speaker 2>and I just want to say about George Pickens. You're

605
00:29:59.039 --> 00:30:00.359
<v Speaker 2>not going to see a lot of peop people who

606
00:30:00.440 --> 00:30:02.960
<v Speaker 2>want to pay wide receiver one price for George Pickens.

607
00:30:03.240 --> 00:30:06.759
<v Speaker 2>They're a little bit concerned. And look, I'm going to

608
00:30:06.799 --> 00:30:09.160
<v Speaker 2>eat crow on my opinion on Pickens, and it has

609
00:30:09.200 --> 00:30:12.680
<v Speaker 2>nothing to do with his talent whatsoever. Last year my

610
00:30:12.799 --> 00:30:14.599
<v Speaker 2>problem was, is this guy going to be a head

611
00:30:14.599 --> 00:30:17.519
<v Speaker 2>case when Cedee Lamb gets all the targets. Well it

612
00:30:17.519 --> 00:30:21.839
<v Speaker 2>turns out that was bad analysis because George Pickens earned

613
00:30:22.000 --> 00:30:24.480
<v Speaker 2>the targets, not Cdee Lamb. I shouldn't say not, but

614
00:30:24.519 --> 00:30:27.880
<v Speaker 2>they split them up. Pickens is very good and he

615
00:30:27.960 --> 00:30:31.440
<v Speaker 2>was able to earn those targets despite playing opposite Cede Lamb.

616
00:30:31.720 --> 00:30:34.839
<v Speaker 2>So that's where I was wrong in that analysis that

617
00:30:34.839 --> 00:30:37.599
<v Speaker 2>I'm eating Crow here. But Pickens is super interesting to

618
00:30:37.680 --> 00:30:39.640
<v Speaker 2>me because I don't think people want to pay wide

619
00:30:39.640 --> 00:30:42.799
<v Speaker 2>receiver one prices even though he was a wide receiver

620
00:30:42.839 --> 00:30:45.319
<v Speaker 2>one last year. So I think we have a bit

621
00:30:45.359 --> 00:30:49.119
<v Speaker 2>of a JSN situation. And hey, George Pickens, He's not

622
00:30:49.200 --> 00:30:51.160
<v Speaker 2>going to set the world on fire if Lamb stays

623
00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:53.319
<v Speaker 2>healthy all year. But A if Lamb gets hurt, you've

624
00:30:53.319 --> 00:30:56.200
<v Speaker 2>got a top five receiver. And B I think the

625
00:30:56.240 --> 00:30:59.440
<v Speaker 2>more he assimilates into that offense and earns Dak Prescott's trust,

626
00:30:59.720 --> 00:31:02.079
<v Speaker 2>I think the more he's the big play guy who

627
00:31:02.119 --> 00:31:06.319
<v Speaker 2>gets the goal line looks and who could absolutely explode.

628
00:31:06.359 --> 00:31:08.039
<v Speaker 2>And if you can make him your wide receiver two,

629
00:31:08.079 --> 00:31:11.640
<v Speaker 2>I love that. Another quick plug for a wide receiver

630
00:31:12.119 --> 00:31:15.319
<v Speaker 2>three I believe is a Mecca Buca. He's going near

631
00:31:15.319 --> 00:31:17.880
<v Speaker 2>the bottom of wide receiver two territory, and again a

632
00:31:17.920 --> 00:31:20.839
<v Speaker 2>lot of people aren't going to want to pay what

633
00:31:20.880 --> 00:31:24.359
<v Speaker 2>they should pay to have him as a wide receiver three.

634
00:31:24.920 --> 00:31:26.960
<v Speaker 2>But that's how I build my draft plan. I can

635
00:31:27.000 --> 00:31:28.920
<v Speaker 2>make him a wide receiver three, and he can perform

636
00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:31.200
<v Speaker 2>like a wide receiver two. I think that he makes

637
00:31:31.240 --> 00:31:33.640
<v Speaker 2>a great tweener because there is a little bit of

638
00:31:33.680 --> 00:31:37.319
<v Speaker 2>consternation there about what his price should be. The final

639
00:31:37.359 --> 00:31:39.720
<v Speaker 2>guy that I think makes a good tweener is Dalton Kincaid.

640
00:31:40.960 --> 00:31:43.720
<v Speaker 2>If you know me, you know that I've spent years

641
00:31:44.319 --> 00:31:46.920
<v Speaker 2>telling everyone not to draft Dalton Kinkay, that I'm not

642
00:31:47.000 --> 00:31:50.640
<v Speaker 2>a fan, but I keep looking at his numbers, and

643
00:31:50.680 --> 00:31:54.519
<v Speaker 2>his efficiency numbers are really strong. Now, I understand he

644
00:31:54.559 --> 00:31:57.519
<v Speaker 2>doesn't get on the field enough to have those efficiency

645
00:31:57.559 --> 00:32:00.559
<v Speaker 2>numbers lead to a lot of great counting stats, and

646
00:32:00.599 --> 00:32:02.519
<v Speaker 2>that's what we do in fantasy football, So I understand

647
00:32:02.519 --> 00:32:05.640
<v Speaker 2>that's a concern. But he's going as tight end thirteen

648
00:32:05.720 --> 00:32:08.440
<v Speaker 2>right now. And the thing is with tweeners, what you're

649
00:32:08.440 --> 00:32:11.119
<v Speaker 2>looking for is you're looking for guys that people don't

650
00:32:11.119 --> 00:32:14.319
<v Speaker 2>want to make their top guy, and so the price

651
00:32:14.359 --> 00:32:17.279
<v Speaker 2>falls off a cliff. So nobody wants to make Kincaid

652
00:32:17.359 --> 00:32:20.480
<v Speaker 2>their wide receiver, excuse me, their tight end one. They

653
00:32:20.519 --> 00:32:22.480
<v Speaker 2>want to make him their tight end two. And that's

654
00:32:22.519 --> 00:32:25.000
<v Speaker 2>where you can find the value because if you believe

655
00:32:25.039 --> 00:32:27.119
<v Speaker 2>that he can perform like a top twelve tight end.

656
00:32:27.519 --> 00:32:29.400
<v Speaker 2>Then you can get him for a couple bucks, and

657
00:32:29.559 --> 00:32:31.440
<v Speaker 2>you don't have to be slavish to the idea of

658
00:32:31.519 --> 00:32:33.640
<v Speaker 2>him being one or two dollars. You can say, all right,

659
00:32:33.680 --> 00:32:35.880
<v Speaker 2>I can pay three or four make him your backup

660
00:32:35.880 --> 00:32:39.119
<v Speaker 2>and get another three or four dollars tight end. Or hell,

661
00:32:39.640 --> 00:32:41.319
<v Speaker 2>how many times do you go out of a draft

662
00:32:41.359 --> 00:32:43.960
<v Speaker 2>and you have three or four bucks left? Just use

663
00:32:43.960 --> 00:32:46.039
<v Speaker 2>that on Dalton Cancaid as your backup tight end. I

664
00:32:46.079 --> 00:32:56.359
<v Speaker 2>think that he makes a perfect tweener. All right, let's

665
00:32:56.480 --> 00:32:58.400
<v Speaker 2>roll into point number three. This is going to be

666
00:32:58.400 --> 00:33:02.400
<v Speaker 2>a really simple one. The third thing that nobody tells

667
00:33:02.400 --> 00:33:05.359
<v Speaker 2>you about auctions is that the speed of an auction

668
00:33:05.599 --> 00:33:09.680
<v Speaker 2>can be surprising. Now, I doubt that anybody out there

669
00:33:09.720 --> 00:33:12.519
<v Speaker 2>is listening and has never done one. But if you're

670
00:33:12.559 --> 00:33:14.960
<v Speaker 2>in one and you're thinking to yourself, oh my gosh,

671
00:33:15.000 --> 00:33:17.079
<v Speaker 2>how do I do all this? How can you think

672
00:33:17.119 --> 00:33:19.240
<v Speaker 2>about all this stuff while it's going on? I don't

673
00:33:19.279 --> 00:33:22.519
<v Speaker 2>disagree with you. That's a significant problem. The speed of

674
00:33:22.559 --> 00:33:26.640
<v Speaker 2>auctions can be surprising. How do we nerf the speed

675
00:33:26.720 --> 00:33:28.079
<v Speaker 2>so we can succeed?

676
00:33:28.920 --> 00:33:29.160
<v Speaker 1>Well?

677
00:33:29.240 --> 00:33:30.480
<v Speaker 2>Number one, you're not going to want to hear it,

678
00:33:30.480 --> 00:33:33.599
<v Speaker 2>but it's preparation it's preparation. The more you prepare, the

679
00:33:33.640 --> 00:33:36.319
<v Speaker 2>more things slow down for you. The second thing is

680
00:33:36.720 --> 00:33:39.839
<v Speaker 2>your sheets, your tear sheet, your par sheet, your nomination sheet.

681
00:33:40.599 --> 00:33:42.079
<v Speaker 2>If you're one of those people who's like, yeah, I

682
00:33:42.079 --> 00:33:43.759
<v Speaker 2>don't know that I need a nomination sheet, but you

683
00:33:43.759 --> 00:33:45.559
<v Speaker 2>get in a draft and things are moving pretty quick,

684
00:33:45.839 --> 00:33:47.079
<v Speaker 2>you need a nomination sheet.

685
00:33:47.119 --> 00:33:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Still.

686
00:33:48.559 --> 00:33:51.359
<v Speaker 2>They're important if you're struggling to keep up in a draft,

687
00:33:51.440 --> 00:33:53.279
<v Speaker 2>it's really important to have that because it does the

688
00:33:53.359 --> 00:33:56.000
<v Speaker 2>thinking for you. You've already done the thinking ahead of

689
00:33:56.039 --> 00:33:58.000
<v Speaker 2>time about what guys are going to be important to

690
00:33:58.039 --> 00:34:00.880
<v Speaker 2>nominate at what points in the draft. And the last

691
00:34:00.920 --> 00:34:03.079
<v Speaker 2>thing I have to tell you is you just got

692
00:34:03.119 --> 00:34:05.599
<v Speaker 2>to have some software you just do. It's okay to

693
00:34:05.599 --> 00:34:07.680
<v Speaker 2>sit there and do it by hand, but I think

694
00:34:07.680 --> 00:34:09.559
<v Speaker 2>you're going to find that that's a pretty big pain

695
00:34:09.599 --> 00:34:11.840
<v Speaker 2>in the butt. You can make mistakes pretty easy, you

696
00:34:11.880 --> 00:34:14.360
<v Speaker 2>can take the money off the wrong team. It's just

697
00:34:14.559 --> 00:34:15.760
<v Speaker 2>you got to have some software.

698
00:34:15.840 --> 00:34:16.000
<v Speaker 1>Now.

699
00:34:16.000 --> 00:34:18.559
<v Speaker 2>I know, if you're doing it online, it keeps it

700
00:34:18.599 --> 00:34:24.360
<v Speaker 2>for you. But the speed of auctions is relentless. It's relentless,

701
00:34:25.320 --> 00:34:27.800
<v Speaker 2>and more often than not, when you're in an online auction,

702
00:34:28.280 --> 00:34:31.079
<v Speaker 2>you're going to get behind at some point because you're

703
00:34:31.119 --> 00:34:32.719
<v Speaker 2>going to be thinking about something or what do I

704
00:34:32.719 --> 00:34:34.880
<v Speaker 2>do next? Or how do I record this? Or what

705
00:34:34.960 --> 00:34:38.800
<v Speaker 2>team just got that. The speed of auctions is relentless.

706
00:34:38.880 --> 00:34:40.960
<v Speaker 2>Nobody tells you about that. You need to be prepared.

707
00:34:40.960 --> 00:34:44.960
<v Speaker 2>The more prepared you are, the more dialed in your sheets, are,

708
00:34:45.000 --> 00:34:48.159
<v Speaker 2>your par sheets, your tiar sheets, your nomination sheets, and

709
00:34:48.199 --> 00:34:50.559
<v Speaker 2>your software. The more dialed in you are with all

710
00:34:50.559 --> 00:34:52.719
<v Speaker 2>that stuff, the better you're going to be able to

711
00:34:52.760 --> 00:34:56.320
<v Speaker 2>handle the speed of the auction. All right, that's point

712
00:34:56.360 --> 00:34:58.119
<v Speaker 2>number three. I told you that was a quick one.

713
00:34:58.599 --> 00:35:09.320
<v Speaker 2>Let's move on to point number four. Point number four.

714
00:35:10.599 --> 00:35:14.599
<v Speaker 2>The number fourth thing nobody tells you about auctions is

715
00:35:14.639 --> 00:35:18.440
<v Speaker 2>that people are people. I wasn't gonna let you get

716
00:35:18.440 --> 00:35:21.960
<v Speaker 2>out of this episode without a stupid tagline, people are people.

717
00:35:22.760 --> 00:35:25.599
<v Speaker 2>This one's important despite the dumb tagline. Don't get lost

718
00:35:25.599 --> 00:35:28.320
<v Speaker 2>in the idiocy. The fourth thing nobody tells you about

719
00:35:28.320 --> 00:35:30.639
<v Speaker 2>auctions is that people are going to be people, and

720
00:35:30.679 --> 00:35:34.119
<v Speaker 2>so you have to prepare for that eventuality. And this

721
00:35:34.199 --> 00:35:38.159
<v Speaker 2>goes back to the opening of today's show about the

722
00:35:38.199 --> 00:35:41.599
<v Speaker 2>guy folding the ace queen. People are going to act

723
00:35:41.639 --> 00:35:44.119
<v Speaker 2>against their self interest and they're going to do it

724
00:35:44.239 --> 00:35:46.480
<v Speaker 2>a lot. And the reason I went over the dial

725
00:35:46.559 --> 00:35:48.320
<v Speaker 2>of auctions, and the reason I want you to have

726
00:35:48.360 --> 00:35:52.239
<v Speaker 2>that good mindset is that you can't expect people to

727
00:35:52.280 --> 00:35:55.360
<v Speaker 2>be normal, all right. And if you go in with

728
00:35:55.400 --> 00:35:59.400
<v Speaker 2>that mindset that you don't expect normalcy, that it's just

729
00:35:59.480 --> 00:36:01.400
<v Speaker 2>going to go, oh a little bit nuts, it's going

730
00:36:01.480 --> 00:36:02.960
<v Speaker 2>to be a little bit crazy. It's going to be

731
00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:05.639
<v Speaker 2>a little bit different than you thought, or a lot different.

732
00:36:06.159 --> 00:36:09.400
<v Speaker 2>If you go into it with that mindset, then you're

733
00:36:09.440 --> 00:36:12.639
<v Speaker 2>going to be so much more successful. You're going to

734
00:36:12.679 --> 00:36:15.400
<v Speaker 2>be so far ahead of the game because I think,

735
00:36:15.440 --> 00:36:18.119
<v Speaker 2>whether you believe it or not, you're going to spend

736
00:36:18.119 --> 00:36:21.159
<v Speaker 2>a lot of time gnashing your teeth and wailing about

737
00:36:21.159 --> 00:36:23.679
<v Speaker 2>what's going on in the auction because it's not going

738
00:36:23.719 --> 00:36:26.639
<v Speaker 2>the way you want it to go. And that's just

739
00:36:26.679 --> 00:36:31.119
<v Speaker 2>a waste of time, energy and thought. You are clouding

740
00:36:31.159 --> 00:36:33.559
<v Speaker 2>your brain with those thoughts. So I think you can

741
00:36:33.599 --> 00:36:37.159
<v Speaker 2>make it a more simple thing by realizing that people

742
00:36:37.199 --> 00:36:39.800
<v Speaker 2>are people. And there's two important points I want to

743
00:36:39.840 --> 00:36:43.039
<v Speaker 2>make about people being people. Besides the fact that they're

744
00:36:43.039 --> 00:36:46.119
<v Speaker 2>going to act against their self interest a lot, there's

745
00:36:46.159 --> 00:36:48.679
<v Speaker 2>something that you need to Remember when you go into

746
00:36:48.719 --> 00:36:50.760
<v Speaker 2>an auction draft room and you've been listening to the

747
00:36:50.760 --> 00:36:53.679
<v Speaker 2>auction Brief all summer, or you've been reading my content

748
00:36:53.719 --> 00:36:56.079
<v Speaker 2>on Patreon, or reading my articles of football guys, or

749
00:36:56.079 --> 00:36:57.119
<v Speaker 2>you've been following.

750
00:36:56.800 --> 00:36:57.840
<v Speaker 1>Me for four or five years.

751
00:36:58.519 --> 00:37:01.599
<v Speaker 2>You're learning all this stuff even if you've only done

752
00:37:01.599 --> 00:37:03.440
<v Speaker 2>five of them in your life. But you're following all

753
00:37:03.440 --> 00:37:05.199
<v Speaker 2>the stuff that I tell you to do on the

754
00:37:05.199 --> 00:37:07.800
<v Speaker 2>auction Brief. You're going to go into your draft room

755
00:37:07.800 --> 00:37:10.079
<v Speaker 2>and you're going to be a better auction drafter than

756
00:37:10.159 --> 00:37:12.920
<v Speaker 2>just about anybody in the room. Okay, And that's not

757
00:37:13.000 --> 00:37:16.320
<v Speaker 2>the point of the comment follow me here, Okay, if

758
00:37:16.360 --> 00:37:19.800
<v Speaker 2>you're the best one in the room, don't forget about

759
00:37:19.800 --> 00:37:22.880
<v Speaker 2>the converse of that when it comes to other people.

760
00:37:23.360 --> 00:37:26.880
<v Speaker 2>And what is the converse of that that, by definition,

761
00:37:27.639 --> 00:37:30.920
<v Speaker 2>the moves that people make in an auction room are

762
00:37:30.960 --> 00:37:34.639
<v Speaker 2>going to be less logical than your moves. They're going

763
00:37:34.679 --> 00:37:39.119
<v Speaker 2>to be weaker moves, they're going to be less logical,

764
00:37:39.199 --> 00:37:42.320
<v Speaker 2>they're going to have less behind them, less thought behind them.

765
00:37:43.000 --> 00:37:46.960
<v Speaker 2>And that's by definition, because if you're the best or

766
00:37:47.000 --> 00:37:49.159
<v Speaker 2>your second best, even in a twelve team, or if

767
00:37:49.159 --> 00:37:52.719
<v Speaker 2>you're third best, that still means there's eight people behind,

768
00:37:52.840 --> 00:37:56.320
<v Speaker 2>nine people behind you. Maths hard. There's nine people behind

769
00:37:56.360 --> 00:37:59.519
<v Speaker 2>you who are going to do more irrational things than

770
00:37:59.559 --> 00:38:02.840
<v Speaker 2>you are, right, because you're better than them. That's the

771
00:38:02.880 --> 00:38:05.199
<v Speaker 2>definition of it. So they're not going to go in

772
00:38:05.239 --> 00:38:07.599
<v Speaker 2>there and just be straight laced and perfect and buttoned

773
00:38:07.679 --> 00:38:10.280
<v Speaker 2>up and logical and make display in that play and

774
00:38:10.320 --> 00:38:13.440
<v Speaker 2>you'll be able to predict it. Why because if they

775
00:38:13.440 --> 00:38:15.599
<v Speaker 2>did that, they'd be better than you, right, And you're

776
00:38:15.639 --> 00:38:18.039
<v Speaker 2>better than them because you've listened to the show. So

777
00:38:18.159 --> 00:38:21.719
<v Speaker 2>don't forget that. That's a super important point. People are people,

778
00:38:22.039 --> 00:38:24.960
<v Speaker 2>and they're going to act in a way that's worse

779
00:38:25.000 --> 00:38:27.239
<v Speaker 2>than you. Their game is worse than you. Don't get

780
00:38:27.280 --> 00:38:31.760
<v Speaker 2>frustrated by expected, don't fight against it. Flow with it

781
00:38:31.960 --> 00:38:35.760
<v Speaker 2>your water. You're flowing around the obstacles. You're not trying

782
00:38:35.800 --> 00:38:38.679
<v Speaker 2>to beat the obstacle down. And the second point I

783
00:38:38.719 --> 00:38:41.519
<v Speaker 2>want to make and wrap up this particular section about

784
00:38:41.719 --> 00:38:47.559
<v Speaker 2>people are people, don't forget that almost everybody you come

785
00:38:47.639 --> 00:38:51.039
<v Speaker 2>up against will not be trying to hide their intentions.

786
00:38:51.440 --> 00:38:54.519
<v Speaker 2>This is very different from my poker takes, because most

787
00:38:54.559 --> 00:38:56.800
<v Speaker 2>often I say you can equate a lot of things

788
00:38:56.800 --> 00:38:59.559
<v Speaker 2>in poker that you can to the auction room. This

789
00:38:59.639 --> 00:39:02.920
<v Speaker 2>is the opposite of that. In a poker room, people

790
00:39:03.119 --> 00:39:05.599
<v Speaker 2>are trying to fool you, they're trying to do things

791
00:39:05.599 --> 00:39:09.239
<v Speaker 2>that are different. In an auction draft room, almost nobody

792
00:39:09.320 --> 00:39:12.039
<v Speaker 2>is doing that. And I'm gonna tell you, I think

793
00:39:12.079 --> 00:39:15.400
<v Speaker 2>except for the top top, top top top of the

794
00:39:15.440 --> 00:39:19.760
<v Speaker 2>auction ability pool, nobody's doing that. Maybe if you're playing

795
00:39:19.760 --> 00:39:22.559
<v Speaker 2>in a thousand dollars high stakes league that you're drafting

796
00:39:22.920 --> 00:39:26.079
<v Speaker 2>on Labor Day in Vegas, you're gonna have some of that.

797
00:39:26.960 --> 00:39:28.960
<v Speaker 2>But even there, I'm gonna submit to you just the

798
00:39:29.000 --> 00:39:32.280
<v Speaker 2>only the best players are trying to shield their intentions

799
00:39:32.320 --> 00:39:34.920
<v Speaker 2>from you. Refer back to point number three, which is

800
00:39:35.159 --> 00:39:36.679
<v Speaker 2>how fast this thing goes.

801
00:39:37.559 --> 00:39:39.960
<v Speaker 1>People are. They're just they're not doing it.

802
00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:42.039
<v Speaker 2>They're not sitting over there going I'm going to bid

803
00:39:42.039 --> 00:39:43.719
<v Speaker 2>like this, I'm going to hold my hand like this,

804
00:39:43.800 --> 00:39:46.719
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna move my head like this. You know, I

805
00:39:46.760 --> 00:39:48.920
<v Speaker 2>was told last summer that I have a specific tell

806
00:39:49.440 --> 00:39:51.960
<v Speaker 2>when I'm in or out on somebody. I'm not gonna

807
00:39:52.480 --> 00:39:57.480
<v Speaker 2>lay that out here, but I will say that I'm

808
00:39:57.519 --> 00:39:59.519
<v Speaker 2>definitely going to be throwing out some false tells with

809
00:39:59.599 --> 00:40:02.639
<v Speaker 2>that summer. Now that everybody knows about it. If you

810
00:40:02.679 --> 00:40:04.519
<v Speaker 2>do know about it, you're going to see a false

811
00:40:04.519 --> 00:40:07.079
<v Speaker 2>tell there. But how many people are doing that? How

812
00:40:07.079 --> 00:40:09.920
<v Speaker 2>many people are doing that? Almost nobody. So you can

813
00:40:09.960 --> 00:40:12.639
<v Speaker 2>figure out what they're doing fairly easily, and they're gonna

814
00:40:12.639 --> 00:40:14.480
<v Speaker 2>throw you some curveballs and do weird stuff. But most

815
00:40:14.480 --> 00:40:17.000
<v Speaker 2>of the time you're gonna be able to just tell

816
00:40:17.039 --> 00:40:20.800
<v Speaker 2>what they're doing because they're not there to shield that.

817
00:40:20.880 --> 00:40:23.280
<v Speaker 2>They're not there to throw out false toes, they're not

818
00:40:23.320 --> 00:40:25.199
<v Speaker 2>there to do wacky, weird things.

819
00:40:25.880 --> 00:40:27.159
<v Speaker 1>Some people are the.

820
00:40:27.159 --> 00:40:30.239
<v Speaker 2>Very top top top of the business, maybe the very

821
00:40:30.280 --> 00:40:32.800
<v Speaker 2>best ones in your home league, maybe, but not very

822
00:40:32.800 --> 00:40:34.679
<v Speaker 2>often and not very consistently, so you don't have to

823
00:40:34.679 --> 00:40:37.119
<v Speaker 2>worry about that too much. People are people, all right.

824
00:40:37.199 --> 00:40:48.239
<v Speaker 2>That's point number four. People are people, all right. Point

825
00:40:48.400 --> 00:40:51.559
<v Speaker 2>number five, let's move on to that one. The fifth

826
00:40:51.599 --> 00:40:54.920
<v Speaker 2>thing that nobody tells you about auctions is that your

827
00:40:55.239 --> 00:40:59.679
<v Speaker 2>edge is found in doing things in an auction that

828
00:40:59.719 --> 00:41:03.159
<v Speaker 2>you can can't do in snake drafts. Your edge is

829
00:41:03.199 --> 00:41:07.199
<v Speaker 2>in finding ways that you can build a roster in

830
00:41:07.280 --> 00:41:09.360
<v Speaker 2>an auction that aren't available to you in a snake

831
00:41:09.920 --> 00:41:12.199
<v Speaker 2>We've talked about these things many times before. We don't

832
00:41:12.199 --> 00:41:14.719
<v Speaker 2>really have to go into depth about this because this

833
00:41:14.800 --> 00:41:18.079
<v Speaker 2>is pretty straightforward stuff here, but I think that we

834
00:41:18.239 --> 00:41:21.800
<v Speaker 2>underestimate how important that is. We're not just trying to

835
00:41:21.800 --> 00:41:23.719
<v Speaker 2>go into the auction and say I'm going to pay

836
00:41:23.719 --> 00:41:25.559
<v Speaker 2>this much for my first round pick, and this much

837
00:41:25.559 --> 00:41:27.280
<v Speaker 2>for my second round pick, and this much for my

838
00:41:27.320 --> 00:41:29.880
<v Speaker 2>third round pick, all the way down to Okay, now

839
00:41:29.920 --> 00:41:31.440
<v Speaker 2>it's in the twelfth round and I'm going to pay

840
00:41:31.440 --> 00:41:34.800
<v Speaker 2>one dollar. That's not what we're doing here. Auctions are

841
00:41:34.840 --> 00:41:37.599
<v Speaker 2>not linear. They're not supposed to be. You're supposed to

842
00:41:37.639 --> 00:41:41.159
<v Speaker 2>be attacking angles that allow you to have a better

843
00:41:41.239 --> 00:41:44.119
<v Speaker 2>auction roster than you ever could in a snake draft.

844
00:41:44.599 --> 00:41:47.960
<v Speaker 2>That's the entire point. Okay, let's not forget that. That's

845
00:41:48.000 --> 00:41:50.960
<v Speaker 2>the entire point. That's where our edge exists. And here's

846
00:41:51.000 --> 00:41:53.239
<v Speaker 2>a couple different edges I want you to pay attention to.

847
00:41:54.320 --> 00:41:56.760
<v Speaker 2>Number one is mid round tight end, and I had

848
00:41:56.760 --> 00:41:59.360
<v Speaker 2>this conversation with with JJ zach Reeson and I've had

849
00:41:59.360 --> 00:42:02.360
<v Speaker 2>it here before. But it's all about opportunity cost. And

850
00:42:02.360 --> 00:42:04.519
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of this is about opportunity cost.

851
00:42:05.199 --> 00:42:09.840
<v Speaker 2>A lot of auction edges spring from the fact that

852
00:42:09.880 --> 00:42:13.559
<v Speaker 2>you don't have to have the same cost in an

853
00:42:13.599 --> 00:42:15.480
<v Speaker 2>auction room that you do in a serpentine draft. And

854
00:42:15.519 --> 00:42:17.199
<v Speaker 2>what do I mean by that, Well, mid round tight

855
00:42:17.320 --> 00:42:20.480
<v Speaker 2>ends are the poster child for this, because I have

856
00:42:20.639 --> 00:42:23.920
<v Speaker 2>no desire to draft Sam Laporta in the eighth round.

857
00:42:24.360 --> 00:42:26.800
<v Speaker 2>I just I'm not doing that. There are too many

858
00:42:26.880 --> 00:42:29.000
<v Speaker 2>running backs and wide receivers or I can be grabbing

859
00:42:29.039 --> 00:42:33.119
<v Speaker 2>my quarterback or whatever to do that. And the history

860
00:42:33.119 --> 00:42:35.679
<v Speaker 2>of mid round tight ends isn't great. But you can

861
00:42:35.719 --> 00:42:37.880
<v Speaker 2>get these guys so much cheaper in an auction where

862
00:42:37.880 --> 00:42:42.440
<v Speaker 2>it really doesn't impact your ability to get impact players

863
00:42:43.519 --> 00:42:46.599
<v Speaker 2>at other spots on your roster. So mid round tight

864
00:42:46.679 --> 00:42:48.760
<v Speaker 2>ends a big one for me. If I can pay

865
00:42:48.800 --> 00:42:52.039
<v Speaker 2>six or eight bucks for Sam Laporta, then I'm cool

866
00:42:52.039 --> 00:42:55.079
<v Speaker 2>with that. But I'm not cool dropping that eighth round

867
00:42:55.079 --> 00:42:57.519
<v Speaker 2>pick or ninth round pick and a snake. That's just

868
00:42:57.559 --> 00:43:02.519
<v Speaker 2>something I don't Donumber one. Number two is loading up

869
00:43:02.960 --> 00:43:04.119
<v Speaker 2>one position group.

870
00:43:04.800 --> 00:43:05.480
<v Speaker 1>Most of the time.

871
00:43:05.559 --> 00:43:08.639
<v Speaker 2>I talk about this with wide receiver twos, you just

872
00:43:08.719 --> 00:43:10.840
<v Speaker 2>can't get in a draft like you can go in

873
00:43:10.880 --> 00:43:13.719
<v Speaker 2>the draft and draft you know in the third, fourth

874
00:43:13.760 --> 00:43:15.599
<v Speaker 2>and fifth round and get a bunch of different receivers.

875
00:43:16.000 --> 00:43:18.639
<v Speaker 2>But by definition, you're starting to dip down into the

876
00:43:18.639 --> 00:43:21.480
<v Speaker 2>wide receiver threes. The further on you get in the

877
00:43:21.519 --> 00:43:23.920
<v Speaker 2>Serpentine draft, you don't have to worry about that.

878
00:43:23.920 --> 00:43:24.519
<v Speaker 1>In auctions.

879
00:43:25.280 --> 00:43:29.159
<v Speaker 2>You can continue to relentlessly pound that wide receiver two

880
00:43:29.599 --> 00:43:31.559
<v Speaker 2>tier and just send up with like.

881
00:43:31.559 --> 00:43:32.159
<v Speaker 1>Five of them.

882
00:43:32.320 --> 00:43:34.440
<v Speaker 2>You can't do that in an auction, or excuse me,

883
00:43:34.480 --> 00:43:35.840
<v Speaker 2>you can't do that in a snake. You can only

884
00:43:35.880 --> 00:43:39.679
<v Speaker 2>do that in an auction. Pound those position groups and

885
00:43:39.760 --> 00:43:44.320
<v Speaker 2>get multiple guys from certain spots in your tiers, and

886
00:43:44.360 --> 00:43:46.800
<v Speaker 2>not only does that give you more outs and the

887
00:43:46.840 --> 00:43:49.400
<v Speaker 2>ability to hit on one of those players, but it

888
00:43:49.440 --> 00:43:51.920
<v Speaker 2>also gives you more depth that you can't have in

889
00:43:51.960 --> 00:43:54.639
<v Speaker 2>a snake. You just can't do it. And I like

890
00:43:54.719 --> 00:43:57.039
<v Speaker 2>to think about it with the wide receiver twos. But

891
00:43:57.119 --> 00:43:59.719
<v Speaker 2>it's also our running back thing this year as well.

892
00:44:00.199 --> 00:44:04.599
<v Speaker 2>There's a ton of rando running backs that are veterans

893
00:44:04.840 --> 00:44:06.920
<v Speaker 2>that people aren't that excited about that you can just

894
00:44:07.000 --> 00:44:10.800
<v Speaker 2>scattershot and just okay, give me Rico Dwell, and give

895
00:44:10.840 --> 00:44:15.400
<v Speaker 2>me Javonte Williams, and give me Jalen Warren, and give

896
00:44:15.480 --> 00:44:18.559
<v Speaker 2>me David Montgomery, and give me all these rando dudes

897
00:44:19.159 --> 00:44:22.159
<v Speaker 2>who previously fell into the running back dead zone. You

898
00:44:22.159 --> 00:44:25.000
<v Speaker 2>don't care about that. The running back dead zone is

899
00:44:25.000 --> 00:44:28.440
<v Speaker 2>a serpentine concept, and you don't give a crap about that,

900
00:44:28.480 --> 00:44:31.159
<v Speaker 2>because in auctions, you can put all these guys on

901
00:44:31.199 --> 00:44:33.920
<v Speaker 2>your team, and you can do it fairly cheaply, because

902
00:44:34.360 --> 00:44:37.400
<v Speaker 2>that's how we find the edge. Again, it's maybe Rico

903
00:44:37.519 --> 00:44:40.679
<v Speaker 2>Daddell sucks, but then I have Jalen Warren, or maybe

904
00:44:40.760 --> 00:44:44.360
<v Speaker 2>Jalen Warren sucks, but I have DeAndre Swift, or maybe

905
00:44:44.400 --> 00:44:47.320
<v Speaker 2>he sucks, but I have David mccarth. Look, this can

906
00:44:47.400 --> 00:44:50.079
<v Speaker 2>only be done in auctions. Another thing I want to

907
00:44:50.079 --> 00:44:55.239
<v Speaker 2>talk about is multiple quarterbacks that are similar. There's nothing

908
00:44:55.280 --> 00:44:57.679
<v Speaker 2>I hate more than having to take my quarterback in

909
00:44:57.719 --> 00:44:59.440
<v Speaker 2>the eighth round and then turn around and double tap

910
00:44:59.440 --> 00:45:02.320
<v Speaker 2>in the ninth, double tap in the tenth. I hate

911
00:45:02.360 --> 00:45:06.440
<v Speaker 2>that because the opportunity cost is so large there that

912
00:45:06.480 --> 00:45:10.280
<v Speaker 2>you're missing out on players that you need at other positions.

913
00:45:10.559 --> 00:45:14.239
<v Speaker 2>But in an auction it's so easy to get multiple

914
00:45:14.320 --> 00:45:16.840
<v Speaker 2>similar quarterbacks and do it for like less than six bucks.

915
00:45:17.400 --> 00:45:18.840
<v Speaker 2>You think I can't go in there and get bo

916
00:45:19.000 --> 00:45:22.039
<v Speaker 2>Nix and Trevor Lawrence for eight bucks tomorrow, of course

917
00:45:22.079 --> 00:45:24.159
<v Speaker 2>I can. Of course I can I can go in

918
00:45:24.239 --> 00:45:26.639
<v Speaker 2>there and get Brock Perty and Dak Prescock Prescott, and

919
00:45:26.639 --> 00:45:27.199
<v Speaker 2>I can get them.

920
00:45:27.119 --> 00:45:28.119
<v Speaker 1>For nine bucks.

921
00:45:28.760 --> 00:45:31.639
<v Speaker 2>You can't do that in a snake. And the edge

922
00:45:31.679 --> 00:45:34.760
<v Speaker 2>that we're finding in auction drafts is doing things that

923
00:45:34.800 --> 00:45:37.360
<v Speaker 2>snakes don't allow you to do. So think about it

924
00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:39.960
<v Speaker 2>that in your preparation. Where can I find the edge

925
00:45:39.960 --> 00:45:42.920
<v Speaker 2>for my roster in my league. I'm not telling you

926
00:45:42.960 --> 00:45:44.880
<v Speaker 2>these three things I gave you the mid round tight end,

927
00:45:45.159 --> 00:45:48.559
<v Speaker 2>loading up at one position, group, multiple similar qbs. I'm

928
00:45:48.559 --> 00:45:50.760
<v Speaker 2>not saying that's going to work in every room. These

929
00:45:50.800 --> 00:45:54.079
<v Speaker 2>are examples, and you should think about, Hey, in my draft,

930
00:45:54.159 --> 00:45:56.280
<v Speaker 2>this is how it's going to go. So here's where

931
00:45:56.280 --> 00:45:58.199
<v Speaker 2>I can attack it, and here's where I can put

932
00:45:58.199 --> 00:45:59.679
<v Speaker 2>it together a team that I wouldn't be able to

933
00:45:59.719 --> 00:46:03.280
<v Speaker 2>do again. It's these these players. Otherwise, all right, that's

934
00:46:03.360 --> 00:46:05.760
<v Speaker 2>number five. That's the fifth thing that nobody tells you

935
00:46:05.800 --> 00:46:09.000
<v Speaker 2>about auctions. Let's wrap it up with my favorite one.

936
00:46:09.039 --> 00:46:20.599
<v Speaker 2>I'd save the best of last. Here's number six. The

937
00:46:20.760 --> 00:46:24.079
<v Speaker 2>sixth thing that nobody tells you about auctions is that

938
00:46:24.159 --> 00:46:31.280
<v Speaker 2>successful auction drafters don't do anything fancy. Successful auction drafters

939
00:46:31.760 --> 00:46:36.639
<v Speaker 2>do not make fancy moves. This is something that poker

940
00:46:36.679 --> 00:46:39.159
<v Speaker 2>players when they start out, and auction drafters when they

941
00:46:39.159 --> 00:46:41.519
<v Speaker 2>start out, that's what they think the name of the

942
00:46:41.559 --> 00:46:44.119
<v Speaker 2>game is. They think they're Mel Gibson sitting at the

943
00:46:44.119 --> 00:46:46.400
<v Speaker 2>poker table and they're going to pull a move on

944
00:46:46.480 --> 00:46:48.320
<v Speaker 2>everybody on every hand.

945
00:46:48.840 --> 00:46:49.440
<v Speaker 1>And people go.

946
00:46:49.400 --> 00:46:51.800
<v Speaker 2>Into an auction draft room and they think, I'm just

947
00:46:51.840 --> 00:46:54.400
<v Speaker 2>gonna roll in there and get three top twenty guys

948
00:46:54.400 --> 00:46:55.800
<v Speaker 2>and all of a sudden they've spent one hundred and

949
00:46:55.840 --> 00:46:59.480
<v Speaker 2>sixty bucks, or I'm gonna bid this guy out. He's

950
00:46:59.480 --> 00:47:01.480
<v Speaker 2>wearing a bang jersey, and then they end up with

951
00:47:01.559 --> 00:47:04.960
<v Speaker 2>Joe Burrow for eighteen bucks when they already have their

952
00:47:05.000 --> 00:47:08.760
<v Speaker 2>quarterback for twelve. People roll into these things and think

953
00:47:09.320 --> 00:47:12.239
<v Speaker 2>that if you make these sweet fancy moves all the time,

954
00:47:12.719 --> 00:47:14.599
<v Speaker 2>you're gonna win, and you're gonna be the hero of

955
00:47:14.639 --> 00:47:17.199
<v Speaker 2>this draft. You're gonna be the hero at the poker table.

956
00:47:17.719 --> 00:47:22.119
<v Speaker 2>That is not how successful auction drafters do it. Successful

957
00:47:22.159 --> 00:47:26.960
<v Speaker 2>auction drafters make the following moves. They don't force things.

958
00:47:27.480 --> 00:47:31.239
<v Speaker 2>We do not force things. Tell yourself this before you

959
00:47:31.320 --> 00:47:33.159
<v Speaker 2>go into the draft. I'm gonna get a little bit

960
00:47:33.199 --> 00:47:36.639
<v Speaker 2>irritated right now. Because it can already see people doing it,

961
00:47:37.360 --> 00:47:39.639
<v Speaker 2>and I've done it in the past. I'm not here,

962
00:47:39.960 --> 00:47:42.440
<v Speaker 2>you know. I've said this before. I'm gonna say it again.

963
00:47:42.880 --> 00:47:44.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm not here to beat you over the head with

964
00:47:44.559 --> 00:47:47.199
<v Speaker 2>these things because you suck. I'm here to tell you

965
00:47:47.639 --> 00:47:50.239
<v Speaker 2>that I suck at these things in the past, and

966
00:47:50.320 --> 00:47:52.719
<v Speaker 2>I've noticed them about myself, and that's why we're talking

967
00:47:52.760 --> 00:47:56.519
<v Speaker 2>about it here. So this is a collective we Okay,

968
00:47:56.960 --> 00:47:59.960
<v Speaker 2>we can't force things. If you think a guy's gon

969
00:48:00.119 --> 00:48:01.400
<v Speaker 2>to be a value and you call him out and

970
00:48:01.440 --> 00:48:04.559
<v Speaker 2>he's not a value, stop bidden. Just because you want

971
00:48:04.559 --> 00:48:06.480
<v Speaker 2>the guy doesn't mean that's what you should be doing.

972
00:48:07.440 --> 00:48:09.719
<v Speaker 2>Don't tell yourself you have to have a certain player.

973
00:48:10.000 --> 00:48:10.199
<v Speaker 1>You know.

974
00:48:10.320 --> 00:48:13.039
<v Speaker 2>I have a couple of leagues where they draft later

975
00:48:13.239 --> 00:48:16.360
<v Speaker 2>in the off season, and I'll go through a bunch

976
00:48:16.400 --> 00:48:18.079
<v Speaker 2>of drafts and I'll be like, man, I don't have

977
00:48:18.119 --> 00:48:21.000
<v Speaker 2>this guy very many spots. I really kind of want

978
00:48:21.000 --> 00:48:23.000
<v Speaker 2>to have this guy. And then I go into those

979
00:48:23.119 --> 00:48:25.800
<v Speaker 2>drafts late in the season or late in the draft season,

980
00:48:26.400 --> 00:48:28.559
<v Speaker 2>and I force it and I overpay for those players

981
00:48:28.559 --> 00:48:31.599
<v Speaker 2>just because I want to have them. Okay, that's fine. Whatever,

982
00:48:31.639 --> 00:48:34.119
<v Speaker 2>it's Fantasy football is supposed to be fun. But that's

983
00:48:34.159 --> 00:48:39.119
<v Speaker 2>not a positive EV play. That's a negative EV play.

984
00:48:39.239 --> 00:48:41.760
<v Speaker 2>Now you can swallow the EV if you want, but

985
00:48:41.880 --> 00:48:43.280
<v Speaker 2>that's a negative EV play.

986
00:48:44.039 --> 00:48:44.920
<v Speaker 1>So don't force it.

987
00:48:44.960 --> 00:48:47.480
<v Speaker 2>Don't tell yourself, I gotta have this guy, I'm gonna

988
00:48:47.559 --> 00:48:50.639
<v Speaker 2>do this. I have to do this, because that's when

989
00:48:50.679 --> 00:48:52.880
<v Speaker 2>you make big mistakes. And what I talked about earlier

990
00:48:52.960 --> 00:48:56.599
<v Speaker 2>is the bigger mistake you make, the bigger consequence there is.

991
00:48:57.400 --> 00:48:59.360
<v Speaker 2>And if you end up buying your wide receiver one,

992
00:48:59.840 --> 00:49:01.719
<v Speaker 2>then and you can't help it that somebody's about to

993
00:49:01.719 --> 00:49:03.480
<v Speaker 2>get Pook and the Cooper for forty nine and you

994
00:49:03.519 --> 00:49:05.840
<v Speaker 2>say fifty and you end up with them, Well, you've

995
00:49:05.880 --> 00:49:08.719
<v Speaker 2>just made a big mistake, not because Pook is not

996
00:49:08.800 --> 00:49:11.840
<v Speaker 2>worth it for fifty bucks, but because you hadn't planned

997
00:49:11.880 --> 00:49:13.760
<v Speaker 2>to spend that. You are planned to spend twenty six.

998
00:49:13.800 --> 00:49:17.559
<v Speaker 2>Now you spend double and you're in trouble. Now that

999
00:49:17.760 --> 00:49:21.079
<v Speaker 2>consequences get bigger the bigger mistake you make. And so

1000
00:49:21.280 --> 00:49:23.360
<v Speaker 2>that's what happens when you force things. Okay, the number

1001
00:49:23.360 --> 00:49:27.199
<v Speaker 2>one thing that that successful auction drafters don't do to

1002
00:49:27.199 --> 00:49:31.079
<v Speaker 2>be fancy is they don't force things. Secondly, the not

1003
00:49:31.280 --> 00:49:34.760
<v Speaker 2>fancy move. The solid move is to nominate guys that

1004
00:49:34.800 --> 00:49:37.400
<v Speaker 2>you want early in the draft, Guys that you want

1005
00:49:37.400 --> 00:49:39.679
<v Speaker 2>to target. Nobody is going to tell you this. Okay,

1006
00:49:39.840 --> 00:49:42.199
<v Speaker 2>this is why I labeled today's topic. Nobody's going to

1007
00:49:42.239 --> 00:49:45.280
<v Speaker 2>tell you this about auctions. Nominate the guys that you want,

1008
00:49:45.320 --> 00:49:49.239
<v Speaker 2>that you're targeting, Nominate them early. Okay, you're not.

1009
00:49:50.119 --> 00:49:52.280
<v Speaker 1>Now. The exception is, I don't want you.

1010
00:49:52.239 --> 00:49:55.000
<v Speaker 2>To nominate like your favorite light late round sleeper, because

1011
00:49:55.000 --> 00:49:56.599
<v Speaker 2>if he's one or two or three dollars late in

1012
00:49:56.599 --> 00:49:58.559
<v Speaker 2>the draft, he might go for nine if you nominate

1013
00:49:58.639 --> 00:50:00.800
<v Speaker 2>him too early, if you go two deep down the

1014
00:50:00.840 --> 00:50:03.800
<v Speaker 2>tear sheet, then the player will be more expensive than

1015
00:50:03.800 --> 00:50:04.760
<v Speaker 2>they would be later.

1016
00:50:04.519 --> 00:50:05.039
<v Speaker 1>In the draft.

1017
00:50:05.400 --> 00:50:08.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm talking about your top level targets. What are your cornerstones.

1018
00:50:09.000 --> 00:50:11.920
<v Speaker 2>Let's say, hey, I'm getting a top three receiver, our

1019
00:50:12.039 --> 00:50:12.920
<v Speaker 2>top five receiver.

1020
00:50:13.519 --> 00:50:13.840
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

1021
00:50:13.880 --> 00:50:15.599
<v Speaker 2>Now, of course we're not gonna force it, but we're

1022
00:50:15.639 --> 00:50:18.960
<v Speaker 2>gonna try that tactic early. So when it gets to

1023
00:50:19.000 --> 00:50:20.559
<v Speaker 2>you and you say I want a top five receiver,

1024
00:50:20.960 --> 00:50:22.280
<v Speaker 2>nominate the guy that you want.

1025
00:50:23.239 --> 00:50:23.519
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

1026
00:50:23.639 --> 00:50:25.840
<v Speaker 2>Jamar Chase isn't staying on the board till the ninth round,

1027
00:50:25.880 --> 00:50:27.679
<v Speaker 2>and you can get him for forty bucks instead of

1028
00:50:27.719 --> 00:50:30.840
<v Speaker 2>sixty five. That ain't happen. People nominate the top guys.

1029
00:50:31.119 --> 00:50:34.800
<v Speaker 2>So nominate your guys early. Figure out who your targets are,

1030
00:50:35.079 --> 00:50:37.760
<v Speaker 2>nominate them early, and get them out there. That's the

1031
00:50:37.840 --> 00:50:42.320
<v Speaker 2>move that successful auction drafters make. You're not fancy about it,

1032
00:50:42.480 --> 00:50:44.519
<v Speaker 2>get your targets out there, get them out early.

1033
00:50:45.000 --> 00:50:45.679
<v Speaker 1>You know, boring.

1034
00:50:45.920 --> 00:50:48.840
<v Speaker 2>I know it's not fancy, it's not fun. You can't

1035
00:50:48.840 --> 00:50:51.559
<v Speaker 2>go on Twitter and brag about it. But boring wins,

1036
00:50:51.960 --> 00:50:56.360
<v Speaker 2>all right. Ramandre Stevenson's boring, but he wins for people.

1037
00:50:56.559 --> 00:50:59.679
<v Speaker 2>Jalen Warren, he's boring. He wins for people, all right.

1038
00:51:00.320 --> 00:51:07.920
<v Speaker 2>Wins make simple, repeatable effective plays over and over and over,

1039
00:51:08.679 --> 00:51:12.840
<v Speaker 2>simple repeatable effective plays, over and over and over. And

1040
00:51:12.880 --> 00:51:15.199
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to advocate for one of those plays right now.

1041
00:51:15.239 --> 00:51:16.800
<v Speaker 2>And I don't usually do this, but I'm going to

1042
00:51:16.840 --> 00:51:20.599
<v Speaker 2>advocate for market price enforcing. I've told you in general

1043
00:51:20.599 --> 00:51:22.559
<v Speaker 2>that I never want you just to bid somebody up

1044
00:51:22.599 --> 00:51:25.440
<v Speaker 2>wildly because you think you can bid them up. Now,

1045
00:51:25.480 --> 00:51:27.280
<v Speaker 2>if you think you're really good at auctions and you

1046
00:51:27.320 --> 00:51:29.079
<v Speaker 2>have a really good read on that person, go for it.

1047
00:51:29.119 --> 00:51:30.639
<v Speaker 2>That is part of the game, and it's something I

1048
00:51:30.639 --> 00:51:32.920
<v Speaker 2>want you to develop, but I don't think you need

1049
00:51:32.920 --> 00:51:36.440
<v Speaker 2>to force that. However, I do think it's incredibly important

1050
00:51:36.840 --> 00:51:41.239
<v Speaker 2>that you don't miss opportunities to market price and force. Now,

1051
00:51:41.280 --> 00:51:43.079
<v Speaker 2>you have to be careful. I'm not telling you not

1052
00:51:43.119 --> 00:51:45.760
<v Speaker 2>to be careful. You got to be careful. But you

1053
00:51:45.840 --> 00:51:49.079
<v Speaker 2>cannot let Garrett Wilson go for eighteen bucks just because

1054
00:51:49.079 --> 00:51:53.119
<v Speaker 2>everybody hates them. You gotta say nineteen now. Again, this

1055
00:51:53.159 --> 00:51:56.000
<v Speaker 2>is all like situation dependent. You can't say nineteen bucks

1056
00:51:56.000 --> 00:51:58.199
<v Speaker 2>if you're sitting on thirty one and you need to

1057
00:51:58.239 --> 00:51:58.920
<v Speaker 2>watch players like.

1058
00:51:58.960 --> 00:51:59.360
<v Speaker 1>I get it.

1059
00:51:59.400 --> 00:52:02.840
<v Speaker 2>But point is, don't miss the opportunities that are there

1060
00:52:02.880 --> 00:52:04.960
<v Speaker 2>that I would argue that's not an opportunity.

1061
00:52:05.000 --> 00:52:06.000
<v Speaker 1>You shouldn't be bidding there.

1062
00:52:06.400 --> 00:52:09.039
<v Speaker 2>The opportunities are the ones that you have to be

1063
00:52:09.159 --> 00:52:14.320
<v Speaker 2>looking out for. You cannot let deals go consistently over

1064
00:52:14.400 --> 00:52:17.400
<v Speaker 2>and over and over just because you're waiting on other guys.

1065
00:52:17.880 --> 00:52:20.280
<v Speaker 2>Waiting on players to get nominated is just the worst

1066
00:52:20.320 --> 00:52:22.280
<v Speaker 2>thing you can do. Early in the draft, get your

1067
00:52:22.280 --> 00:52:26.039
<v Speaker 2>guys out there, and then when other people nominate players

1068
00:52:26.079 --> 00:52:28.280
<v Speaker 2>that are going too cheap. You can't miss the market

1069
00:52:28.320 --> 00:52:29.039
<v Speaker 2>price enforcing.

1070
00:52:29.119 --> 00:52:29.679
<v Speaker 1>You just can't.

1071
00:52:30.440 --> 00:52:32.360
<v Speaker 2>And I understand that sometimes you're gonna get stuck with

1072
00:52:32.400 --> 00:52:36.079
<v Speaker 2>those guys, but that's the whole game. Being quote unquote

1073
00:52:36.079 --> 00:52:39.119
<v Speaker 2>stuck isn't necessarily a bad thing. If you get quote

1074
00:52:39.199 --> 00:52:41.840
<v Speaker 2>unquote stuck with the guy because you bid and he

1075
00:52:41.960 --> 00:52:44.639
<v Speaker 2>was far too cheap, you got a great deal there. Now,

1076
00:52:44.679 --> 00:52:46.039
<v Speaker 2>if you just don't want the player at all, then

1077
00:52:46.039 --> 00:52:48.760
<v Speaker 2>don't bid. You shouldn't be making the play, but you

1078
00:52:48.800 --> 00:52:51.320
<v Speaker 2>should be trying to market price and force every chance

1079
00:52:51.360 --> 00:52:54.199
<v Speaker 2>you get. And if you do that over and over

1080
00:52:54.320 --> 00:52:57.800
<v Speaker 2>and over and over throughout the draft, you can sometimes

1081
00:52:57.800 --> 00:53:01.360
<v Speaker 2>pull fifty seventy five one hundred bus out of that room.

1082
00:53:01.920 --> 00:53:04.679
<v Speaker 2>Can you imagine pulling half of a salary cap out

1083
00:53:04.679 --> 00:53:06.840
<v Speaker 2>of that room? Just because you're not going to let

1084
00:53:06.880 --> 00:53:08.280
<v Speaker 2>people get too good of a deal.

1085
00:53:09.039 --> 00:53:10.000
<v Speaker 1>You have to do this.

1086
00:53:10.719 --> 00:53:14.960
<v Speaker 2>It's so important. It's not fancy. It's just straight economics.

1087
00:53:15.079 --> 00:53:17.639
<v Speaker 2>It's straight how much did this guy go for? This

1088
00:53:17.679 --> 00:53:20.639
<v Speaker 2>is way too cheap. I have to bid. That ain't fancy.

1089
00:53:20.719 --> 00:53:24.119
<v Speaker 2>That's just knowing your stuff. That's knowing those values cold

1090
00:53:24.400 --> 00:53:26.760
<v Speaker 2>before you go into that draft. What do you consider

1091
00:53:26.800 --> 00:53:29.000
<v Speaker 2>this guy's value to be? And I'm not going to

1092
00:53:29.079 --> 00:53:31.360
<v Speaker 2>let somebody get too big of a deal. That's going

1093
00:53:31.400 --> 00:53:35.360
<v Speaker 2>to hurt me in the long run. Just remember, successful

1094
00:53:35.719 --> 00:53:42.239
<v Speaker 2>auction drafters don't make fancy moves. We make repeatable, simple,

1095
00:53:42.639 --> 00:53:47.039
<v Speaker 2>effective plays over and over and over, and the lack

1096
00:53:47.079 --> 00:53:50.840
<v Speaker 2>of mistakes has an effective weight on the rest of

1097
00:53:50.880 --> 00:53:53.920
<v Speaker 2>the room that's going to make your auction draft better

1098
00:53:53.960 --> 00:53:56.920
<v Speaker 2>than everybody in that room. All right, So the sixth

1099
00:53:57.199 --> 00:53:59.880
<v Speaker 2>thing nobody tells you about is that successful auction drafters

1100
00:53:59.880 --> 00:54:02.599
<v Speaker 2>don't do anything fancy. I love that way to end

1101
00:54:02.719 --> 00:54:06.000
<v Speaker 2>because we're trying to be as solid as possible and

1102
00:54:06.079 --> 00:54:06.840
<v Speaker 2>build that EV.

1103
00:54:07.559 --> 00:54:09.880
<v Speaker 1>Don't forget. It's not something I've talked about this summer,

1104
00:54:10.239 --> 00:54:11.559
<v Speaker 1>but stacking.

1105
00:54:11.079 --> 00:54:14.440
<v Speaker 2>Those plays each one gives you a part of a

1106
00:54:14.519 --> 00:54:18.079
<v Speaker 2>percent of EV. This move gave me point two percent.

1107
00:54:18.159 --> 00:54:20.360
<v Speaker 2>This move gave me one point one, This move gave

1108
00:54:20.360 --> 00:54:23.519
<v Speaker 2>me point seven. Pretty soon, you've increased the EV of

1109
00:54:23.519 --> 00:54:27.559
<v Speaker 2>your roster by eleven percent by making these simple, repeatable plays.

1110
00:54:28.159 --> 00:54:29.920
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for joining me for this week.

1111
00:54:29.960 --> 00:54:32.800
<v Speaker 2>For the six things that nobody tells you about auctions,

1112
00:54:33.360 --> 00:54:37.280
<v Speaker 2>Just remember rigidity of purpose leads to flexibility in your

1113
00:54:37.360 --> 00:54:41.400
<v Speaker 2>draft room. Number two thing nobody tells you about auctions

1114
00:54:41.440 --> 00:54:43.760
<v Speaker 2>that there are tweeners that you can get on your

1115
00:54:43.880 --> 00:54:48.039
<v Speaker 2>roster that are going to make your roster explode. Number three,

1116
00:54:48.119 --> 00:54:52.159
<v Speaker 2>the speed of auctions can be surprising, and the more

1117
00:54:52.320 --> 00:54:55.079
<v Speaker 2>you prepare and the more you are buttoned up and

1118
00:54:55.119 --> 00:54:58.679
<v Speaker 2>ready to go, you can handle the relentless space. Number four.

1119
00:54:58.719 --> 00:55:01.559
<v Speaker 2>People are people going to do things against self interest.

1120
00:55:02.079 --> 00:55:05.360
<v Speaker 2>It's natural to see people making illogical plays. Be ready

1121
00:55:05.360 --> 00:55:09.280
<v Speaker 2>for it and expect it. Number five. Find your edge

1122
00:55:09.679 --> 00:55:11.800
<v Speaker 2>in doing things that you can do in an auction

1123
00:55:11.880 --> 00:55:14.559
<v Speaker 2>that you can't do in a snake. And finally, like

1124
00:55:14.639 --> 00:55:19.440
<v Speaker 2>I just got done talking about successful auction drafters, don't

1125
00:55:19.480 --> 00:55:25.000
<v Speaker 2>make fancy moves. They make simple, solid, repeatable, effective plays

1126
00:55:25.039 --> 00:55:27.159
<v Speaker 2>over and over and over, and the weight of that

1127
00:55:27.199 --> 00:55:39.000
<v Speaker 2>makes you a championship auction drafter. All right, folks, thank

1128
00:55:39.039 --> 00:55:41.039
<v Speaker 2>you so much for listening to my six things nobody

1129
00:55:41.039 --> 00:55:44.199
<v Speaker 2>tells you about auctions. Don't forget about the salary Cap summit.

1130
00:55:44.360 --> 00:55:45.840
<v Speaker 2>I hope I'm going to be seeing some of you

1131
00:55:45.920 --> 00:55:48.320
<v Speaker 2>out in Canton in just a couple of weeks. I

1132
00:55:48.320 --> 00:55:51.320
<v Speaker 2>hope you enjoyed the conversation with Joe Dolan from Fantasy Points.

1133
00:55:51.760 --> 00:55:54.639
<v Speaker 2>Dude is awesome. He knows his stuff and he knows auctions.

1134
00:55:55.320 --> 00:55:57.480
<v Speaker 2>So if you haven't listened to it yet, get over

1135
00:55:57.519 --> 00:56:00.199
<v Speaker 2>there and listen to that conversation with Joe Dolan. Don't

1136
00:56:00.199 --> 00:56:04.480
<v Speaker 2>forget Sunday, July twelfth, that's in a couple of days

1137
00:56:04.519 --> 00:56:09.000
<v Speaker 2>after you get this episode. I'll have my first serious

1138
00:56:09.280 --> 00:56:12.000
<v Speaker 2>x M show on the Fantasy Points Weekend from three

1139
00:56:12.039 --> 00:56:13.880
<v Speaker 2>to five on Sundays. We're going to be three to

1140
00:56:13.920 --> 00:56:16.800
<v Speaker 2>five on Sundays through July and August. When the season starts,

1141
00:56:16.840 --> 00:56:19.239
<v Speaker 2>we're going to be six to eight, all right, So

1142
00:56:20.159 --> 00:56:23.079
<v Speaker 2>get over there to serious and listen to us on Sunday,

1143
00:56:23.159 --> 00:56:27.719
<v Speaker 2>Drake and I starting our serious show with Fantasy Points Weekend,

1144
00:56:28.639 --> 00:56:30.280
<v Speaker 2>all right. You can find me on Twitter at drew

1145
00:56:30.320 --> 00:56:34.039
<v Speaker 2>to having port ff on the Fantasy Football Lawyer Patreon network.

1146
00:56:34.159 --> 00:56:36.239
<v Speaker 2>Just four bucks a month to get the best auction

1147
00:56:36.400 --> 00:56:39.239
<v Speaker 2>content in the business. Thank you so much for joining me.

1148
00:56:39.280 --> 00:56:42.159
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for being a part of this journey.

1149
00:56:42.280 --> 00:56:44.119
<v Speaker 2>I love talking to you all. It's my favorite time

1150
00:56:44.119 --> 00:56:46.760
<v Speaker 2>of the week. Thanks for being here, everybody. The Auction

1151
00:56:46.840 --> 00:56:51.199
<v Speaker 2>Brief is adjourned and I am out. The Auction Brief

1152
00:56:52.559 --> 00:56:56.119
<v Speaker 2>is adjourn that'll do it for this week's episode.

1153
00:56:56.360 --> 00:57:02.320
<v Speaker 1>See you next time on the Auction briefn