Speaker 1: Welcome to the Auction Brief.
Speaker 2: There's a joy in these games or.
Speaker 1: Not, taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law,
Speaker 1: and life. We saw your It depends on how much
Speaker 1: you want.
Speaker 2: And now you're legal analyst and auction draft expert here
Speaker 2: to help you dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew
Speaker 2: da Important There are full hearts. Hey, everybody, welcome into
Speaker 2: the Auction Brief. As the lady said, I'm your host,
Speaker 2: Drew Davinportant. Thank you so much for joining me for
Speaker 2: another episode. We are cruising right along, heading towards the
Speaker 2: middle of July, and you know what that means. In
Speaker 2: just a couple of weeks, training camps will be open.
Speaker 2: We'll be looking at real life football. I can't believe it,
Speaker 2: but I'm super stoked by it. And I'm so stoked
Speaker 2: about all the content that we have this summer coming out,
Speaker 2: not just the Auction Brief, but things on the Patreon,
Speaker 2: the Salary Cap Summit, all the stuff that we got
Speaker 2: going on the summer. It's an awesome summer already and
Speaker 2: we have a ton to look forward to. So thank
Speaker 2: you so much for being here for the journey. And
Speaker 2: I want to say that today, I want to go
Speaker 2: on a little bit of a journey before we start,
Speaker 2: because I think that I tend to lose that a
Speaker 2: little bit when I start really just baring down and saying, okay,
Speaker 2: let's get right to the info. But I think that
Speaker 2: this show is what it is, and one of the
Speaker 2: things I've been neglecting a little bit lately is just
Speaker 2: that journey, that whole winding our way through how we're
Speaker 2: supposed to be thinking about this stuff. And I'm not
Speaker 2: talking about a whole episode of just the Dow of auctions.
Speaker 2: I realized I was heavy. I get it. I think
Speaker 2: it's important. I think mindset's super important in auctions, so
Speaker 2: I spend a whole episode on it. So I'm not
Speaker 2: telling you to forget it, but I'm saying I want
Speaker 2: to take a little bit of journey before we jump
Speaker 2: right into it. And I love today's topic. As you
Speaker 2: see in the caption, it's six things that nobody tells
Speaker 2: you about auctions. Six things nobody tells you about auctions.
Speaker 2: And I shouldn't say nobody, because this guy what has
Speaker 2: two thumbs and tells you everything you need to know
Speaker 2: about auctions, this guy, right, But I'm serious. I don't
Speaker 2: see these topics being handled anywhere in the fantasy football industry,
Speaker 2: and I understand that auctions are just a critically underserved
Speaker 2: part of the market. You heard Joe Dolan talking a
Speaker 2: little bit about his draft plan. Now that's a guy
Speaker 2: that I would read his draft plan front to back
Speaker 2: and read it a couple times and make sure that
Speaker 2: you internalize it, because Joe knows what he's doing. But
Speaker 2: I'll tell you, I see some articles out there in
Speaker 2: the industry about auctions and they're not good. They're just
Speaker 2: not they're not. Therefore, people who've never done an auction,
Speaker 2: they're like, oh crap, I got to read about this
Speaker 2: because I'm going to my auction in two hours.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I hope you listen to my man Festa at the
Speaker 2: end of the year. That's about forty five minutes getting
Speaker 2: ready for your auction. That's going to be the last
Speaker 2: episode of the summer. But there's just some things that
Speaker 2: people don't talk about, and there's these articles that are
Speaker 2: just not helping you. And that's what I want to
Speaker 2: talk about today. Six things nobody tells you about auctions.
Speaker 2: And I want to wind our way there a little bit.
Speaker 2: I got a nice comment on Twitter this week and I, ah,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna forget the name. I'm really sorry, but somebody said, hey,
Speaker 2: quit talking about the time and about needing to be done,
Speaker 2: and he's right, Like, I bring it up almost every episode,
Speaker 2: but I'm I'm really working on it because I think
Speaker 2: it's important to get you information in this day and
Speaker 2: age where long podcasts are an ethema. I just think
Speaker 2: that it's important to get you that information. But I
Speaker 2: want to take a little journey today. And that comment
Speaker 2: really kind of freed me up because I thought to myself,
Speaker 2: you know, he's a little bit He's right, I've been
Speaker 2: stressing it too much, and it's important to have those
Speaker 2: goals and try to keep things brief and help you
Speaker 2: in as quick a time as possible, but it's not
Speaker 2: more important and then getting you where you need to
Speaker 2: be to dominate your auction. So that's what we're gonna do.
Speaker 2: We're gonna take a small, little journey, little meandering talk
Speaker 2: about poker. I'm gonna relate it to the law and
Speaker 2: the consequences of breaking the law. Yeah, we're gonna weave
Speaker 2: that baby together, and it's gonna lead us to our
Speaker 2: topic today. Six things nobody tells you about auctions.
Speaker 1: Don't forget.
Speaker 2: We got the Salary Cap Summit coming up in early August.
Speaker 2: That's the second, third, and fourth of August. That's seven
Speaker 2: pm every night. The first two nights are a live
Speaker 2: auction where I'm gonna be commentating the entire time, two
Speaker 2: plus hours, sometimes almost three hours of live commentary about
Speaker 2: the auction. And then the third night we'll have some
Speaker 2: of the best auction minds in the business. We've got
Speaker 2: Dave Richard from CBS, Scott Pianowski from Yahoo, Jim Coventry
Speaker 2: from Roda Wire. Those are just the guys that are confirmed.
Speaker 2: I've got a lot more invites out, so I hope
Speaker 2: you'll join us there for the Salary Cap Summit. That's
Speaker 2: gonna be on my YouTube page. I keep getting questions
Speaker 2: about that, but you can find my YouTube page. But
Speaker 2: I'll be tweeting out that link over and over all. Right,
Speaker 2: you can find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF,
Speaker 2: on Patreon at the Fantasy Football Lawyer. Don't forget, it's
Speaker 2: just four bucks a month. Nobody in the business is
Speaker 2: putting out targeted auction content that's unique and helpful and actionable.
Speaker 2: Like we are over at the Patreon network. Just four
Speaker 2: bucks a month. It's a bargain.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: That's it for the preliminary Let's get into it and
Speaker 2: let's start talking about some stuff that's going to help
Speaker 2: you for your auctions. So let's start today by talking
Speaker 2: about a little poker story that's going to lead us
Speaker 2: into the topic. And the poker story, I call it
Speaker 2: little because it is kind of a short story, but
Speaker 2: it came on the heels of my episode about the
Speaker 2: dow of auctions, about letting things be what they are,
Speaker 2: and a lot of today's topic is about that. It's
Speaker 2: about letting things be what they are, about that illusion
Speaker 2: of control we need to get rid of. But we're
Speaker 2: not going down the same road as the dow auctions.
Speaker 2: We're going to take it differently because we're going to
Speaker 2: talk about things that people should tell you, that you
Speaker 2: should be aware of that's going to help settle you
Speaker 2: when you get into the auction room. But the beginning
Speaker 2: of the story is the poker story. And I washed
Speaker 2: a hand unfold. I'm not involved in this hand, and
Speaker 2: the board was Ace King Queen, and then there was
Speaker 2: a nine on the turn and a pot develops between
Speaker 2: three people. It's a three way pot to the turn.
Speaker 2: Ace King Queen nine is the board. There's a guy
Speaker 2: who bets the turn, and a guy raises the turn,
Speaker 2: and the third guy sits there and tanks for a
Speaker 2: while and finally decides that he's going to fold, and
Speaker 2: the original raiser calls that ends up getting just it's
Speaker 2: either checked down or it was a really small bet
Speaker 2: and call on the river. But the guy who had
Speaker 2: made the raise on the turn, it turns out, had nothing.
Speaker 2: He just said absolutely nothing. Now, this is a really
Speaker 2: irrational move on this guy's part. He's in a three
Speaker 2: way pot with an Ace King Queen flop and he's
Speaker 2: in there raising the turn against two opponents on a
Speaker 2: super unfriendly board. This is not a nine to sixth
Speaker 2: deuce board where he can push off some hands like
Speaker 2: Ace King or Ace Queen or pocket sevens. This guy's
Speaker 2: in there just going crazy with a board of you
Speaker 2: know cards that people play, I mean, everybody plays those
Speaker 2: cards that everything matches those cards. So it's a horrible play.
Speaker 2: And the reason I say this is because the guy
Speaker 2: who ended up folding on the turn turns out that
Speaker 2: he had Ace Queen the board was Ace King Queen nine,
Speaker 2: and he folded the urn with Ace Queen, and I'm
Speaker 2: going to tell you right now that's brutal, but I
Speaker 2: think it's the right fold because he doesn't know dipshit
Speaker 2: number two is raising with air on the turn and
Speaker 2: it turns out that the guy who bet and called
Speaker 2: had Ace nine, so he had aces up as well.
Speaker 2: It's just that Ace Queen had a better aces up.
Speaker 2: The problem is you can't account for what that guy
Speaker 2: is doing. And we're gonna talk about this in a
Speaker 2: little bit about expecting the unexpected. We've hit on it
Speaker 2: lightly before, we're gonna go into it a little bit today.
Speaker 2: But you can't account for that stuff. The illusion of
Speaker 2: control you have at the poker table in the auction
Speaker 2: room is just that it's an illusion because that guy
Speaker 2: jumping in the he never should have been in that pot.
Speaker 2: Ace Queen should have won a nice pot against age nine.
Speaker 2: Instead he folds, and again I say, that's the right fold.
Speaker 2: If he's on the turn getting this resistance, somebody could
Speaker 2: have Ace King, somebody could have Jack ten, somebody could
Speaker 2: have a set of nines like this is not a
Speaker 2: bad fold for Mace Queen, but he had to fold
Speaker 2: because of a moron doing something idiotic in the middle
Speaker 2: of the pot. And the reason I tell the story
Speaker 2: is that oftentimes auctions are that thing. It's that illusion
Speaker 2: of control, like if we can just meld this thing
Speaker 2: into what we want it to be. And so I
Speaker 2: don't want to go down that road again, because we
Speaker 2: did this for a whole episode about the Dow auctions.
Speaker 2: But the reason I want to start with this story
Speaker 2: today is because it kind of leads me into I
Speaker 2: was thinking about something the other day when I had
Speaker 2: a case and somebody was talking about, Oh, well, I
Speaker 2: just I didn't even really do anything, and the thing
Speaker 2: was it was a fairly bad I'm not going to
Speaker 2: get into details here. Obviously, that's not something I want
Speaker 2: to do. I'm not betraying anyone's attorney client privilege or anything.
Speaker 2: I just don't want to get in the habit of
Speaker 2: talking specifics about cases on here. I just think that's
Speaker 2: a bad idea and unprofessional. But the bottom line is,
Speaker 2: this guy says to me that he didn't really do anything,
Speaker 2: yet he had caused a substantial risk of physical harm
Speaker 2: to a couple other people. And the thing is his
Speaker 2: original decision wasn't that bad, but it ended up being
Speaker 2: a fairly serious case. And I relate this back to
Speaker 2: the poker story because you know, we have this illusion
Speaker 2: of control, and this guy thought that he had, you know,
Speaker 2: some control in this moment. It turned out really bad.
Speaker 2: And what it made me think of, believe it or not,
Speaker 2: was an auto draft where people make these huge mistakes
Speaker 2: and they kind of don't realize how big a mistakes
Speaker 2: they are. And I think one of the things that
Speaker 2: is something that maybe I should just I should talk
Speaker 2: about it more. I assume everyone knows about par sheets
Speaker 2: and we're not going to get into that today, and
Speaker 2: maybe I'll do about five or ten minutes about that
Speaker 2: on another episode. But par sheets are the way that
Speaker 2: we don't lose control. And what I started thinking about
Speaker 2: with this guy in this case was that the way
Speaker 2: you know, have you ever, you know, you've heard the
Speaker 2: phrase that like, hey, if a law is unjust, we
Speaker 2: should break it. You know, we should feel free to
Speaker 2: break it.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: The thing that a lot of people don't follow that
Speaker 2: up with is you're still going to face consequences if
Speaker 2: you break a law, even if that law is unjust.
Speaker 2: And this guy's particular case, he had to face consequences
Speaker 2: even if the men's ray, as they say in law talk,
Speaker 2: but men's ray just means the state of mind. Even
Speaker 2: if his state of mind wasn't committing a crime that series,
Speaker 2: it still faces consequences because of how outsized the results were.
Speaker 2: And that's one of those things that an auction drafts.
Speaker 2: We really have to watch and we really have to
Speaker 2: pay attention to some of those things that I'm saying
Speaker 2: that all of the people out there aren't giving you,
Speaker 2: and they're not giving you enough of it. But the
Speaker 2: way that we walk the balance beam, the way that
Speaker 2: we succeed in these auctions, is by letting go of
Speaker 2: that control and realizing that things are what they are
Speaker 2: and that if you step out of line too far,
Speaker 2: you're going to pay the consequences, regardless of whether you
Speaker 2: intended to or not. Auctions are the ultimate arbiter of truth,
Speaker 2: because if you step out of line, you're going to pay.
Speaker 2: And the way you avoid that is you know, to have.
Speaker 1: Your par sheet.
Speaker 2: And we're going to talk about six ways to avoid
Speaker 2: that today, and that's why I titled it six things
Speaker 2: people don't tell you about auctions, because what they don't
Speaker 2: tell you is that the further you step out of line,
Speaker 2: the greater the consequences are. Just like this guy, and
Speaker 2: you may not intend to, but if you don't pay
Speaker 2: attention to the way that we are fighting that, if
Speaker 2: you don't pay attention to the way to hold that off,
Speaker 2: then you will make outsized mistakes that will lead to
Speaker 2: consequences and you'll walk out of that draft with a
Speaker 2: crappy team, or you'll walk out of that draft with
Speaker 2: a mediocre team or a team that's, hey, maybe it's
Speaker 2: a six and a half when it could have been
Speaker 2: a nine. Maybe it's a seven and a half when
Speaker 2: it could have been a ten. You will suffer those
Speaker 2: consequences the more you get out of line. And I
Speaker 2: love that guy's decision with the Ace Queen because he
Speaker 2: did not get out of line. And in some circumstances
Speaker 2: he's going to lose money, but I think generally it's
Speaker 2: a positive EV play. And he's a strong, smart player.
Speaker 1: I know the guy.
Speaker 2: I've played poker with him many times, strong, smart, tight rock.
Speaker 2: This guy knows what he's doing long term. That's positive EV.
Speaker 2: And that's what I'm going to tell you about auctions,
Speaker 2: and that's how we're going to start today that sometimes
Speaker 2: being rigid and sometimes walking that straight and narrow with
Speaker 2: your par sheets is the way to success in auctions.
Speaker 2: So let's talk about those six things that nobody tells
Speaker 2: you about auctions auction talk. I want to lead into
Speaker 2: today's topic by talking about number one, which I just reference,
Speaker 2: the rigidity of auctions. And this is something I referenced.
Speaker 2: By the way, go check out my appearance on JJ
Speaker 2: zach Reeson's Perspective podcast. I thought it was a really
Speaker 2: great hour and five minutes, I think, and we really
Speaker 2: dove deep into some auction stuff. I think you'll enjoy that. Again,
Speaker 2: that's late Round Perspectives with JJ zachar Reason. But one
Speaker 2: of the things I pointed out to him is something
Speaker 2: that I'm going to leave the show off with today.
Speaker 2: The number one thing is that rigidity could actually be
Speaker 2: a good thing when it comes to auctions, and nobody
Speaker 2: tells you that every auction article I ever see. You
Speaker 2: must be flexible when you get into your auction room.
Speaker 2: Don't be afraid to do something different than what you
Speaker 2: had planned, because that is the beauty of auctions. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you want to be flexible, absolutely, you want to be flexible.
Speaker 2: But I want to make an important distinction here that
Speaker 2: nobody makes when they talk about auctions, that rigidity of
Speaker 2: purpose prior to the draft is what leads to your
Speaker 2: ability to be flexible once you're.
Speaker 1: In the draft.
Speaker 2: Let me say that again, rigidity of purpose before the
Speaker 2: draft is what leads to your ability to be flexible
Speaker 2: while you're in the draft. The planning you do, we're
Speaker 2: going to talk about that in a little bit. The
Speaker 2: framework that you have both in mindset and in your
Speaker 2: nuts and bolts preparation about what guys you're targeting, what
Speaker 2: prices you like, what you're going to do in your
Speaker 2: par sheet, the way you're going to attack the draft,
Speaker 2: how you're going to weave your way through the draft.
Speaker 2: Early on, I'm going to try this a quarter of
Speaker 2: the way through. I want to be doing this a
Speaker 2: half the way through. I want to be here three
Speaker 2: quarters of the way through. I want to be here
Speaker 2: that attack. It all matters. And so I really believe
Speaker 2: that rigidity of purpose is what allows the flexibility, and
Speaker 2: that goes back to the par sheets first and foremost.
Speaker 2: That everybody says, and I don't even discuss this with
Speaker 2: industry folks. I'm just here to tell you. Do you
Speaker 2: ever hear me talk about par sheets with my guests?
Speaker 2: I don't because I believe that most analysts, and this
Speaker 2: is not a character flaw, this is confidence. Most analysts
Speaker 2: believe they can just go into an auction room and
Speaker 2: they don't need that stuff. They don't need to have
Speaker 2: numbers written down, they don't need the exact numbers. They think,
Speaker 2: now that limits me, and that very well could be true.
Speaker 2: But number one, I'd say, you're not Jim Coventry and
Speaker 2: you're not JJ Zacharica, and neither am I. So that's
Speaker 2: that's number one. But number two, I mean it's more
Speaker 2: than that. It's more than that because fantasy football analysts
Speaker 2: are very confident in their ability to handle these things.
Speaker 2: And that's okay. So they tend to say, hey, maybe
Speaker 2: that's going to make me a little too rigid. Okay,
Speaker 2: that's fine for them, but for us. For me, I
Speaker 2: use par sheets. I want you to use them. I
Speaker 2: believe there's a correlation to success there, and so that
Speaker 2: rigidity allows the flexibility in the draft, first of all,
Speaker 2: and then I also believe when I say the rigidity
Speaker 2: of purpose and the framework, part of that's record keeping.
Speaker 2: I know people don't want to hear that, but part
Speaker 2: of that's record keeping. You just have to know cold
Speaker 2: exactly what everybody has. And when I say rigidity of purpose,
Speaker 2: I'm talking about that attack and that framework that we
Speaker 2: come up with before the draft and the way that we're.
Speaker 1: Going to walk through the draft.
Speaker 2: And sometimes that's going to go wrong, but you know
Speaker 2: what it's going to go wrong, and you're going to go, oh,
Speaker 2: I was going to attack running back here, but Hardy
Speaker 2: got one because I had such a deal earlier, and
Speaker 2: so no can move.
Speaker 1: I can go a different way.
Speaker 2: But if you're just floating through the draft without that attack,
Speaker 2: without that purpose, without that framework, that's what you're gonna do.
Speaker 2: You're gonna float through and things are going to happen
Speaker 2: to you rather than you dictated. And two or three
Speaker 2: summers ago, I really got on a kick about forcing
Speaker 2: people's hands, and I want to talk about that a
Speaker 2: little bit more this summer, not today, but I want
Speaker 2: you to keep that in the back of your mind,
Speaker 2: that making people uncomfortable and forcing people's hands is how
Speaker 2: you do it. And the way that you approach things
Speaker 2: is by staying focused, by staying rigid in your focus
Speaker 2: of how you want to attack the auction. Don't just
Speaker 2: abandon your plan two rounds in because things aren't going perfect.
Speaker 2: Look at your plan and say, okay, now, how do
Speaker 2: we adjust?
Speaker 1: How do I.
Speaker 2: Still drive towards my goals?
Speaker 1: If you never have the goals in the first place,
Speaker 1: how are you going to do that? Right?
Speaker 2: How are you going to do that? So the rigidity
Speaker 2: of preparation, of laying your framework of your attack, you're planning,
Speaker 2: all that stuff allows you to be flexible and nimble
Speaker 2: when you get in the draft. I really believe that
Speaker 2: that's point number one, that something that nobody tells you
Speaker 2: about auctions, rigidity is important, and it leads to your
Speaker 2: flexibility and it leads to the next level elite rosters.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: The second thing that nobody tells you about auctions is
Speaker 2: a new term for this summer. It's something new I
Speaker 2: want to introduce, and that is that there is such
Speaker 2: a thing called a tweener. All right, do we know
Speaker 2: the phrase tweener? Somebody who's a little bit in between
Speaker 2: a guy who can't really be a shooting guard. He's
Speaker 2: not really a small forward. He's a little bit of
Speaker 2: a you know what, I mean, there are guys in
Speaker 2: sports that are just tweeners. They are players who aren't
Speaker 2: really one thing and they aren't really another. And why
Speaker 2: am I introducing this phrase this year? You're not going
Speaker 2: to be shocked at all. But I'm bringing up Jackson
Speaker 2: Smith and Jigua again because you know me, I'm a
Speaker 2: bit of a psycho. I'm a bit of a nut job.
Speaker 2: And when there's something like that, do you remember how
Speaker 2: nuts I was about Stefan Diggs when he went to
Speaker 2: Buffalo and I missed it. Well, that's how nuts I
Speaker 2: am about JASN. I actually caught it this time, and
Speaker 2: I actually ended up with him. And I want to
Speaker 2: know why I didn't see it ahead of time, and
Speaker 2: I want to be able to put a name to
Speaker 2: what happened with JSN. And so it keeps grinding in
Speaker 2: my brain. I just like I work on it in
Speaker 2: the background. It's almost like I'm putting a program on
Speaker 2: in the background and my brain is just going to
Speaker 2: work on it until I figure out what it is.
Speaker 2: And I think I hit on something big a couple
Speaker 2: of days ago. And that's the tweenier concept. And the
Speaker 2: reason that JSN play worked last year was because there
Speaker 2: are guys who I believe don't qualify to be considered
Speaker 2: as a certain type of player, a certain level of player,
Speaker 2: not type level of player, but yet you don't really
Speaker 2: want them as a lower level player. You don't think
Speaker 2: they really deserve to be a higher level. It's like,
Speaker 2: I don't really know what to do with this guy,
Speaker 2: and that's why JSN fell last year. And I want
Speaker 2: you to think of the phrase, well, I don't really
Speaker 2: want him as my blank. Well, I don't really want
Speaker 2: him as my wide receiver one. Well I don't really
Speaker 2: want him as my RB one. I don't really want
Speaker 2: him as my RB two. And I want you to
Speaker 2: think of that phrase, because there are certain types of
Speaker 2: players that people see as good players. But for example,
Speaker 2: with JSN last summer, it was, well, I don't really
Speaker 2: see him as my wide receiver one. He's not my
Speaker 2: building block. That's why he was cheaper. But he wasn't
Speaker 2: cheap enough to be a true wide receiver two price.
Speaker 2: So what ended up happening was he fell through the cracks.
Speaker 2: And when I say the cracks, I mean he fell
Speaker 2: in that weird range between wide receiver two and wide
Speaker 2: receiver one. He didn't go for forty two, but he
Speaker 2: didn't go for twenty eight. He was in that weird
Speaker 2: range where he was sort of a tweener. He was
Speaker 2: in between a wide receiver one and two. And so
Speaker 2: what ends up happening in an auction is something that
Speaker 2: doesn't happen in a snake. And that's why this is
Speaker 2: the number two thing that nobody tells you about auctions,
Speaker 2: is that those tweeners can make your roster explode. And
Speaker 2: that's what happened with JSN last summer. And why is that, Well,
Speaker 2: it's because you can do one of two things. You
Speaker 2: can either draft him as a wide receiver one in
Speaker 2: your auction and then you've saved money by paying less
Speaker 2: for that wide receiver one. Or you can draft him
Speaker 2: as your wide receiver two and you have a dynamite
Speaker 2: wide receiver two and pay up for a wide receiver one.
Speaker 2: Now I know you've spent more money there, but the
Speaker 2: whole point is your wide receiver two then performs like
Speaker 2: a wide receiver one. JSN was high wide receiver two.
Speaker 2: Price that performed like a high wide receiver one. Now
Speaker 2: we're not always going to find that guy, and I
Speaker 2: want to tell you I'm going to give you some
Speaker 2: of my ideas today. Some guys that I'm looking at
Speaker 2: as tweeners, because I know you guys like that. But
Speaker 2: I want to stress to you that this might be
Speaker 2: a bit of a feudal exercise. So I don't want
Speaker 2: to spend a bunch of time breaking these guys down
Speaker 2: like I did last week, like he has this many
Speaker 2: points per game and this coaching.
Speaker 1: I'm not doing that.
Speaker 2: I'm just going to give you a list here of
Speaker 2: guys and a brief comment because I really believe that
Speaker 2: this is determined by what happens in your draft room.
Speaker 2: You don't know which guys are going to qualify as
Speaker 2: tweeners really till you get in there. Because if you'd
Speaker 2: asked me last summer, just jasn qualify as a tweener,
Speaker 2: well know, he really doesn't because he's supposed to be
Speaker 2: a wide receiver. One I wouldn't have I wouldn't have
Speaker 2: picked up on that. So I'm trying to name some
Speaker 2: guys because now that I'm onto the concept, I want
Speaker 2: to start trying to predict these tweeners.
Speaker 1: I think that's important.
Speaker 2: But but but but it's really going to be room dependent,
Speaker 2: and that's that's not a hedge. I promise you it's
Speaker 2: it's not, because there are going to be some rooms
Speaker 2: that see certain players differently and you're gonna go, oh
Speaker 2: my god, I can have this guy as a wide
Speaker 2: receiver three, but he's a really nice top end wide
Speaker 2: receiver two. And you get that wide receiver price because
Speaker 2: that wide receiver three price, because everyone sees them as
Speaker 2: a twiner, Like, I'm not paying that for my wide
Speaker 2: receiver three. But that's the beauty of auctions. You can't
Speaker 2: do that in a serpentine. It's only there's only a
Speaker 2: small subset of players that are available to you, and
Speaker 2: more often than not, they have to slot in where
Speaker 2: they slot in. It doesn't matter, you can't. There's nothing
Speaker 2: you can do about that. Auctions you can take advantage
Speaker 2: of that. So let's talk a little bit about some
Speaker 2: tweeners here, because I really believe that nobody talks about
Speaker 2: this stuff when it comes to auctions, and I believe
Speaker 2: a lot of your positive ev is in finding these
Speaker 2: things and finding these players, all right, your positive expected
Speaker 2: value comes from finding these edges and auctions that aren't
Speaker 2: available in a snake draft. So let's first talk about
Speaker 2: quarterback and the only guy that I have for you
Speaker 2: right now that's popping out is Kyler Murray. And I
Speaker 2: just want to tell you how thrilled I am to
Speaker 2: say that I think that Kyler Murray is back as
Speaker 2: a fantasy option on the menu. That is to say,
Speaker 2: if you don't know me, I'm not thrilled at all,
Speaker 2: because I think he generally kind of sucks. All right,
Speaker 2: he's a mediocre NFL quarterback. But I think you can
Speaker 2: kind of say the same thing about Sam Darnold. He
Speaker 2: landed with Kevin O'Connell and some good receivers and had
Speaker 2: a great year. He landed in Seattle with some good
Speaker 2: receivers and a good offensive mine and had a good year.
Speaker 2: I think you can elevate mediocre quarterbacks. I don't think Darnald.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't necessarily call him mediocre, but I wouldn't call
Speaker 2: him top shelf. He's like, what fourteenth best or something,
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like thirteenth best, Like, I
Speaker 2: don't know, maybe that's not mediocre, Maybe that's pretty good.
Speaker 1: But my point with.
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray is he's landing in the best offensive situation.
Speaker 2: I think maybe of his entire career. He has two
Speaker 2: really good receivers and they just signed a third one.
Speaker 2: He's got a good tight end, he's got a strong
Speaker 2: offensive coach who is a excellent quarterback coach. And I'm
Speaker 2: just going to say it right now, Murray as QB
Speaker 2: seventeen is a bit stupid. I mean, the guy has
Speaker 2: rushing potential, he's in a great situation. It's the best
Speaker 2: situation of his career. QB seventeen stupid. I have to
Speaker 2: think that's a reflection of the fact that people aren't
Speaker 2: sure that he's going to win the job. But let
Speaker 2: me tell you something, he's winning the job. Kevin O'Connell,
Speaker 2: believe it or not. I think he's a great coach,
Speaker 2: but I think he's coaching for his job this year.
Speaker 2: If they don't look pretty good, he's coaching for his job.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm not a JJ McCarthy guy. I took
Speaker 2: a chance on him in my homekeeper league and really
Speaker 2: thought they would give him more time to develop. But
Speaker 2: they panicked a little bit. And there's a point I
Speaker 2: want to make here that I think is a pretty
Speaker 2: important point that I kind of referenced early in the summer.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you've ever heard a coach talk
Speaker 2: about a guy that they brought in in the draft, like, hey,
Speaker 2: we've got this guy in the second round and we're
Speaker 2: really excited about him, and then they just barely play,
Speaker 2: or the coach says, yeah, he's got a lot of growth,
Speaker 2: he's got a lot of things he needs to do.
Speaker 2: You know, that's coach speak for this guy sucks. Okay,
Speaker 2: because in the off season coaches pump player up relentlessly,
Speaker 2: and if they're not saying something nice, they're saying that
Speaker 2: guy sucks. Point being, when coaches are around players every
Speaker 2: day at practice, they know and have you ever heard
Speaker 2: coach say, yeah, boy, we got this guy in and
Speaker 2: we realized immediately he couldn't play. That happens a lot.
Speaker 2: It happens a lot more than we realize. These guys
Speaker 2: suddenly get every day access to a player and their
Speaker 2: habits and their abilities and the way they go about things.
Speaker 2: All of a sudden, the coach goes, oh, man, we
Speaker 2: messed up. This guy sucks and there's nothing they can
Speaker 2: do about it because they just drafted him in the
Speaker 2: second round or late first round or whatever.
Speaker 1: And I think there's something to that.
Speaker 2: I liken it to the Ken Walker Zach Sharboney thing,
Speaker 2: and that is that they didn't want to make Ken
Speaker 2: Walker a bellcow because they didn't want it to be heard.
Speaker 2: And when you're around a player every day, you know
Speaker 2: what the strengths of those players are. Maybe Walker is
Speaker 2: a garbage goal line back now. I think that he
Speaker 2: had some success late last year when Charbonay was hurt.
Speaker 2: But all I want to point out is that coaches know,
Speaker 2: and I'm pretty sure that the coach in Minnesota knows
Speaker 2: that JJ McCarthy doesn't have it. I'm pretty sure that's
Speaker 2: why we're seeing Kyler Murray because it's a puzzling move otherwise.
Speaker 2: So anyway, I think that Kyler Murray makes a good
Speaker 2: tweiner because the guy's QB seventeen, and nobody wants to
Speaker 2: go in there and say, yeah, he's my QB one,
Speaker 2: So they're like, eah, i'd rather have him as a
Speaker 2: QB two. And so you're not going to get him
Speaker 2: for a dollar or two, but you're also not gonna
Speaker 2: have to pay eight dollars or nine dollars or ten
Speaker 2: dollars because nobody wants to make him their QB one.
Speaker 2: So I think he's a perfect tweener. I think that
Speaker 2: you can get him as your QB one, but you're
Speaker 2: just gonna have to spend three six bucks on him.
Speaker 2: And that's okay because if he performs like a top
Speaker 2: eight quarterback, that's a.
Speaker 1: Bargain, all right.
Speaker 2: Running back tweeners a couple of guys I'm looking at
Speaker 2: David Montgomery and DeAndre Swift. They're both at the bottom
Speaker 2: of RB two territory right now, so nobody really values
Speaker 2: them as a strong RB two and I think there's
Speaker 2: a chance now Swift I'm less bullished on, but I
Speaker 2: do think that he's a lock to be mid RB two.
Speaker 2: I don't think comment on is specially not think he's
Speaker 2: just suddenly going to take over. Swift is gonna be
Speaker 2: plenty involved. It's the same thing that wasn't Detroit. I
Speaker 2: think when I was gonna come in there and you know,
Speaker 2: take some goal on stuff and be paying the butt
Speaker 2: for Swift. But they're both being drafted at the bottom
Speaker 2: of RB two territory, and a lot of people are
Speaker 2: saying that I don't really want to pay that for
Speaker 2: my RB two. Great, great, because I'll pay that and
Speaker 2: make my RB three, or I'll pay that as my
Speaker 2: RB two cheap RB two money and I'm gonna get
Speaker 2: top of the RB two production or mid RB two production,
Speaker 2: whatever the case may be. They look like some tweeers.
Speaker 2: Another a couple of guys that are down the list,
Speaker 2: Jordan Mason and Jonathan Brooks. These are guys that I
Speaker 2: don't want to spend a lot of money on, but
Speaker 2: that I think have some asymmetric upside. These aren't asymmetric plays,
Speaker 2: but I think they could be tweeners because I think
Speaker 2: people aren't going to want to spend on these two
Speaker 2: guys when they do have the potential to deliver numbers
Speaker 2: that are far outweighing you know what their current view
Speaker 2: is the bottom of RB four territory. People are kind
Speaker 2: of like, Eah, these guys aren't really RB three's when
Speaker 2: in fact that's actually what they could be for your team.
Speaker 2: At wide receiver. I got three different guys. Nico Collins
Speaker 2: is interesting to me as a tweener because I believe
Speaker 2: that when we go into these drafts, I'm really thinking
Speaker 2: that we're not going to see low forties prices for Nico,
Speaker 2: So I think he could be in a JSN situation,
Speaker 2: not that he's gonna have one hundred and twenty billion targets.
Speaker 2: Just that I think it could be in a JSN
Speaker 2: situation where you can get him as a wide receiver
Speaker 2: two because people aren't going to want to pay that
Speaker 2: price for him. They're not going to want to pay
Speaker 2: thirty eight thirty six for the wide receiver too. But
Speaker 2: if you can budget that in and grab Nico as
Speaker 2: a wide receiver two, man, that's dynamite stuff. But the
Speaker 2: two guys that I think are most interesting is DeVante
Speaker 2: Smith and George Pickens. Now I've already talked about Smith,
Speaker 2: and I just want to say about George Pickens. You're
Speaker 2: not going to see a lot of peop people who
Speaker 2: want to pay wide receiver one price for George Pickens.
Speaker 2: They're a little bit concerned. And look, I'm going to
Speaker 2: eat crow on my opinion on Pickens, and it has
Speaker 2: nothing to do with his talent whatsoever. Last year my
Speaker 2: problem was, is this guy going to be a head
Speaker 2: case when Cedee Lamb gets all the targets. Well it
Speaker 2: turns out that was bad analysis because George Pickens earned
Speaker 2: the targets, not Cdee Lamb. I shouldn't say not, but
Speaker 2: they split them up. Pickens is very good and he
Speaker 2: was able to earn those targets despite playing opposite Cede Lamb.
Speaker 2: So that's where I was wrong in that analysis that
Speaker 2: I'm eating Crow here. But Pickens is super interesting to
Speaker 2: me because I don't think people want to pay wide
Speaker 2: receiver one prices even though he was a wide receiver
Speaker 2: one last year. So I think we have a bit
Speaker 2: of a JSN situation. And hey, George Pickens, He's not
Speaker 2: going to set the world on fire if Lamb stays
Speaker 2: healthy all year. But A if Lamb gets hurt, you've
Speaker 2: got a top five receiver. And B I think the
Speaker 2: more he assimilates into that offense and earns Dak Prescott's trust,
Speaker 2: I think the more he's the big play guy who
Speaker 2: gets the goal line looks and who could absolutely explode.
Speaker 2: And if you can make him your wide receiver two,
Speaker 2: I love that. Another quick plug for a wide receiver
Speaker 2: three I believe is a Mecca Buca. He's going near
Speaker 2: the bottom of wide receiver two territory, and again a
Speaker 2: lot of people aren't going to want to pay what
Speaker 2: they should pay to have him as a wide receiver three.
Speaker 2: But that's how I build my draft plan. I can
Speaker 2: make him a wide receiver three, and he can perform
Speaker 2: like a wide receiver two. I think that he makes
Speaker 2: a great tweener because there is a little bit of
Speaker 2: consternation there about what his price should be. The final
Speaker 2: guy that I think makes a good tweener is Dalton Kincaid.
Speaker 2: If you know me, you know that I've spent years
Speaker 2: telling everyone not to draft Dalton Kinkay, that I'm not
Speaker 2: a fan, but I keep looking at his numbers, and
Speaker 2: his efficiency numbers are really strong. Now, I understand he
Speaker 2: doesn't get on the field enough to have those efficiency
Speaker 2: numbers lead to a lot of great counting stats, and
Speaker 2: that's what we do in fantasy football, So I understand
Speaker 2: that's a concern. But he's going as tight end thirteen
Speaker 2: right now. And the thing is with tweeners, what you're
Speaker 2: looking for is you're looking for guys that people don't
Speaker 2: want to make their top guy, and so the price
Speaker 2: falls off a cliff. So nobody wants to make Kincaid
Speaker 2: their wide receiver, excuse me, their tight end one. They
Speaker 2: want to make him their tight end two. And that's
Speaker 2: where you can find the value because if you believe
Speaker 2: that he can perform like a top twelve tight end.
Speaker 2: Then you can get him for a couple bucks, and
Speaker 2: you don't have to be slavish to the idea of
Speaker 2: him being one or two dollars. You can say, all right,
Speaker 2: I can pay three or four make him your backup
Speaker 2: and get another three or four dollars tight end. Or hell,
Speaker 2: how many times do you go out of a draft
Speaker 2: and you have three or four bucks left? Just use
Speaker 2: that on Dalton Cancaid as your backup tight end. I
Speaker 2: think that he makes a perfect tweener. All right, let's
Speaker 2: roll into point number three. This is going to be
Speaker 2: a really simple one. The third thing that nobody tells
Speaker 2: you about auctions is that the speed of an auction
Speaker 2: can be surprising. Now, I doubt that anybody out there
Speaker 2: is listening and has never done one. But if you're
Speaker 2: in one and you're thinking to yourself, oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: how do I do all this? How can you think
Speaker 2: about all this stuff while it's going on? I don't
Speaker 2: disagree with you. That's a significant problem. The speed of
Speaker 2: auctions can be surprising. How do we nerf the speed
Speaker 2: so we can succeed?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 2: Number one, you're not going to want to hear it,
Speaker 2: but it's preparation it's preparation. The more you prepare, the
Speaker 2: more things slow down for you. The second thing is
Speaker 2: your sheets, your tear sheet, your par sheet, your nomination sheet.
Speaker 2: If you're one of those people who's like, yeah, I
Speaker 2: don't know that I need a nomination sheet, but you
Speaker 2: get in a draft and things are moving pretty quick,
Speaker 2: you need a nomination sheet.
Speaker 1: Still.
Speaker 2: They're important if you're struggling to keep up in a draft,
Speaker 2: it's really important to have that because it does the
Speaker 2: thinking for you. You've already done the thinking ahead of
Speaker 2: time about what guys are going to be important to
Speaker 2: nominate at what points in the draft. And the last
Speaker 2: thing I have to tell you is you just got
Speaker 2: to have some software you just do. It's okay to
Speaker 2: sit there and do it by hand, but I think
Speaker 2: you're going to find that that's a pretty big pain
Speaker 2: in the butt. You can make mistakes pretty easy, you
Speaker 2: can take the money off the wrong team. It's just
Speaker 2: you got to have some software.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I know, if you're doing it online, it keeps it
Speaker 2: for you. But the speed of auctions is relentless. It's relentless,
Speaker 2: and more often than not, when you're in an online auction,
Speaker 2: you're going to get behind at some point because you're
Speaker 2: going to be thinking about something or what do I
Speaker 2: do next? Or how do I record this? Or what
Speaker 2: team just got that. The speed of auctions is relentless.
Speaker 2: Nobody tells you about that. You need to be prepared.
Speaker 2: The more prepared you are, the more dialed in your sheets, are,
Speaker 2: your par sheets, your tiar sheets, your nomination sheets, and
Speaker 2: your software. The more dialed in you are with all
Speaker 2: that stuff, the better you're going to be able to
Speaker 2: handle the speed of the auction. All right, that's point
Speaker 2: number three. I told you that was a quick one.
Speaker 2: Let's move on to point number four. Point number four.
Speaker 2: The number fourth thing nobody tells you about auctions is
Speaker 2: that people are people. I wasn't gonna let you get
Speaker 2: out of this episode without a stupid tagline, people are people.
Speaker 2: This one's important despite the dumb tagline. Don't get lost
Speaker 2: in the idiocy. The fourth thing nobody tells you about
Speaker 2: auctions is that people are going to be people, and
Speaker 2: so you have to prepare for that eventuality. And this
Speaker 2: goes back to the opening of today's show about the
Speaker 2: guy folding the ace queen. People are going to act
Speaker 2: against their self interest and they're going to do it
Speaker 2: a lot. And the reason I went over the dial
Speaker 2: of auctions, and the reason I want you to have
Speaker 2: that good mindset is that you can't expect people to
Speaker 2: be normal, all right. And if you go in with
Speaker 2: that mindset that you don't expect normalcy, that it's just
Speaker 2: going to go, oh a little bit nuts, it's going
Speaker 2: to be a little bit crazy. It's going to be
Speaker 2: a little bit different than you thought, or a lot different.
Speaker 2: If you go into it with that mindset, then you're
Speaker 2: going to be so much more successful. You're going to
Speaker 2: be so far ahead of the game because I think,
Speaker 2: whether you believe it or not, you're going to spend
Speaker 2: a lot of time gnashing your teeth and wailing about
Speaker 2: what's going on in the auction because it's not going
Speaker 2: the way you want it to go. And that's just
Speaker 2: a waste of time, energy and thought. You are clouding
Speaker 2: your brain with those thoughts. So I think you can
Speaker 2: make it a more simple thing by realizing that people
Speaker 2: are people. And there's two important points I want to
Speaker 2: make about people being people. Besides the fact that they're
Speaker 2: going to act against their self interest a lot, there's
Speaker 2: something that you need to Remember when you go into
Speaker 2: an auction draft room and you've been listening to the
Speaker 2: auction Brief all summer, or you've been reading my content
Speaker 2: on Patreon, or reading my articles of football guys, or
Speaker 2: you've been following.
Speaker 1: Me for four or five years.
Speaker 2: You're learning all this stuff even if you've only done
Speaker 2: five of them in your life. But you're following all
Speaker 2: the stuff that I tell you to do on the
Speaker 2: auction Brief. You're going to go into your draft room
Speaker 2: and you're going to be a better auction drafter than
Speaker 2: just about anybody in the room. Okay, And that's not
Speaker 2: the point of the comment follow me here, Okay, if
Speaker 2: you're the best one in the room, don't forget about
Speaker 2: the converse of that when it comes to other people.
Speaker 2: And what is the converse of that that, by definition,
Speaker 2: the moves that people make in an auction room are
Speaker 2: going to be less logical than your moves. They're going
Speaker 2: to be weaker moves, they're going to be less logical,
Speaker 2: they're going to have less behind them, less thought behind them.
Speaker 2: And that's by definition, because if you're the best or
Speaker 2: your second best, even in a twelve team, or if
Speaker 2: you're third best, that still means there's eight people behind,
Speaker 2: nine people behind you. Maths hard. There's nine people behind
Speaker 2: you who are going to do more irrational things than
Speaker 2: you are, right, because you're better than them. That's the
Speaker 2: definition of it. So they're not going to go in
Speaker 2: there and just be straight laced and perfect and buttoned
Speaker 2: up and logical and make display in that play and
Speaker 2: you'll be able to predict it. Why because if they
Speaker 2: did that, they'd be better than you, right, And you're
Speaker 2: better than them because you've listened to the show. So
Speaker 2: don't forget that. That's a super important point. People are people,
Speaker 2: and they're going to act in a way that's worse
Speaker 2: than you. Their game is worse than you. Don't get
Speaker 2: frustrated by expected, don't fight against it. Flow with it
Speaker 2: your water. You're flowing around the obstacles. You're not trying
Speaker 2: to beat the obstacle down. And the second point I
Speaker 2: want to make and wrap up this particular section about
Speaker 2: people are people, don't forget that almost everybody you come
Speaker 2: up against will not be trying to hide their intentions.
Speaker 2: This is very different from my poker takes, because most
Speaker 2: often I say you can equate a lot of things
Speaker 2: in poker that you can to the auction room. This
Speaker 2: is the opposite of that. In a poker room, people
Speaker 2: are trying to fool you, they're trying to do things
Speaker 2: that are different. In an auction draft room, almost nobody
Speaker 2: is doing that. And I'm gonna tell you, I think
Speaker 2: except for the top top, top top top of the
Speaker 2: auction ability pool, nobody's doing that. Maybe if you're playing
Speaker 2: in a thousand dollars high stakes league that you're drafting
Speaker 2: on Labor Day in Vegas, you're gonna have some of that.
Speaker 2: But even there, I'm gonna submit to you just the
Speaker 2: only the best players are trying to shield their intentions
Speaker 2: from you. Refer back to point number three, which is
Speaker 2: how fast this thing goes.
Speaker 1: People are. They're just they're not doing it.
Speaker 2: They're not sitting over there going I'm going to bid
Speaker 2: like this, I'm going to hold my hand like this,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna move my head like this. You know, I
Speaker 2: was told last summer that I have a specific tell
Speaker 2: when I'm in or out on somebody. I'm not gonna
Speaker 2: lay that out here, but I will say that I'm
Speaker 2: definitely going to be throwing out some false tells with
Speaker 2: that summer. Now that everybody knows about it. If you
Speaker 2: do know about it, you're going to see a false
Speaker 2: tell there. But how many people are doing that? How
Speaker 2: many people are doing that? Almost nobody. So you can
Speaker 2: figure out what they're doing fairly easily, and they're gonna
Speaker 2: throw you some curveballs and do weird stuff. But most
Speaker 2: of the time you're gonna be able to just tell
Speaker 2: what they're doing because they're not there to shield that.
Speaker 2: They're not there to throw out false toes, they're not
Speaker 2: there to do wacky, weird things.
Speaker 1: Some people are the.
Speaker 2: Very top top top of the business, maybe the very
Speaker 2: best ones in your home league, maybe, but not very
Speaker 2: often and not very consistently, so you don't have to
Speaker 2: worry about that too much. People are people, all right.
Speaker 2: That's point number four. People are people, all right. Point
Speaker 2: number five, let's move on to that one. The fifth
Speaker 2: thing that nobody tells you about auctions is that your
Speaker 2: edge is found in doing things in an auction that
Speaker 2: you can can't do in snake drafts. Your edge is
Speaker 2: in finding ways that you can build a roster in
Speaker 2: an auction that aren't available to you in a snake
Speaker 2: We've talked about these things many times before. We don't
Speaker 2: really have to go into depth about this because this
Speaker 2: is pretty straightforward stuff here, but I think that we
Speaker 2: underestimate how important that is. We're not just trying to
Speaker 2: go into the auction and say I'm going to pay
Speaker 2: this much for my first round pick, and this much
Speaker 2: for my second round pick, and this much for my
Speaker 2: third round pick, all the way down to Okay, now
Speaker 2: it's in the twelfth round and I'm going to pay
Speaker 2: one dollar. That's not what we're doing here. Auctions are
Speaker 2: not linear. They're not supposed to be. You're supposed to
Speaker 2: be attacking angles that allow you to have a better
Speaker 2: auction roster than you ever could in a snake draft.
Speaker 2: That's the entire point. Okay, let's not forget that. That's
Speaker 2: the entire point. That's where our edge exists. And here's
Speaker 2: a couple different edges I want you to pay attention to.
Speaker 2: Number one is mid round tight end, and I had
Speaker 2: this conversation with with JJ zach Reeson and I've had
Speaker 2: it here before. But it's all about opportunity cost. And
Speaker 2: I think a lot of this is about opportunity cost.
Speaker 2: A lot of auction edges spring from the fact that
Speaker 2: you don't have to have the same cost in an
Speaker 2: auction room that you do in a serpentine draft. And
Speaker 2: what do I mean by that, Well, mid round tight
Speaker 2: ends are the poster child for this, because I have
Speaker 2: no desire to draft Sam Laporta in the eighth round.
Speaker 2: I just I'm not doing that. There are too many
Speaker 2: running backs and wide receivers or I can be grabbing
Speaker 2: my quarterback or whatever to do that. And the history
Speaker 2: of mid round tight ends isn't great. But you can
Speaker 2: get these guys so much cheaper in an auction where
Speaker 2: it really doesn't impact your ability to get impact players
Speaker 2: at other spots on your roster. So mid round tight
Speaker 2: ends a big one for me. If I can pay
Speaker 2: six or eight bucks for Sam Laporta, then I'm cool
Speaker 2: with that. But I'm not cool dropping that eighth round
Speaker 2: pick or ninth round pick and a snake. That's just
Speaker 2: something I don't Donumber one. Number two is loading up
Speaker 2: one position group.
Speaker 1: Most of the time.
Speaker 2: I talk about this with wide receiver twos, you just
Speaker 2: can't get in a draft like you can go in
Speaker 2: the draft and draft you know in the third, fourth
Speaker 2: and fifth round and get a bunch of different receivers.
Speaker 2: But by definition, you're starting to dip down into the
Speaker 2: wide receiver threes. The further on you get in the
Speaker 2: Serpentine draft, you don't have to worry about that.
Speaker 1: In auctions.
Speaker 2: You can continue to relentlessly pound that wide receiver two
Speaker 2: tier and just send up with like.
Speaker 1: Five of them.
Speaker 2: You can't do that in an auction, or excuse me,
Speaker 2: you can't do that in a snake. You can only
Speaker 2: do that in an auction. Pound those position groups and
Speaker 2: get multiple guys from certain spots in your tiers, and
Speaker 2: not only does that give you more outs and the
Speaker 2: ability to hit on one of those players, but it
Speaker 2: also gives you more depth that you can't have in
Speaker 2: a snake. You just can't do it. And I like
Speaker 2: to think about it with the wide receiver twos. But
Speaker 2: it's also our running back thing this year as well.
Speaker 2: There's a ton of rando running backs that are veterans
Speaker 2: that people aren't that excited about that you can just
Speaker 2: scattershot and just okay, give me Rico Dwell, and give
Speaker 2: me Javonte Williams, and give me Jalen Warren, and give
Speaker 2: me David Montgomery, and give me all these rando dudes
Speaker 2: who previously fell into the running back dead zone. You
Speaker 2: don't care about that. The running back dead zone is
Speaker 2: a serpentine concept, and you don't give a crap about that,
Speaker 2: because in auctions, you can put all these guys on
Speaker 2: your team, and you can do it fairly cheaply, because
Speaker 2: that's how we find the edge. Again, it's maybe Rico
Speaker 2: Daddell sucks, but then I have Jalen Warren, or maybe
Speaker 2: Jalen Warren sucks, but I have DeAndre Swift, or maybe
Speaker 2: he sucks, but I have David mccarth. Look, this can
Speaker 2: only be done in auctions. Another thing I want to
Speaker 2: talk about is multiple quarterbacks that are similar. There's nothing
Speaker 2: I hate more than having to take my quarterback in
Speaker 2: the eighth round and then turn around and double tap
Speaker 2: in the ninth, double tap in the tenth. I hate
Speaker 2: that because the opportunity cost is so large there that
Speaker 2: you're missing out on players that you need at other positions.
Speaker 2: But in an auction it's so easy to get multiple
Speaker 2: similar quarterbacks and do it for like less than six bucks.
Speaker 2: You think I can't go in there and get bo
Speaker 2: Nix and Trevor Lawrence for eight bucks tomorrow, of course
Speaker 2: I can. Of course I can I can go in
Speaker 2: there and get Brock Perty and Dak Prescock Prescott, and
Speaker 2: I can get them.
Speaker 1: For nine bucks.
Speaker 2: You can't do that in a snake. And the edge
Speaker 2: that we're finding in auction drafts is doing things that
Speaker 2: snakes don't allow you to do. So think about it
Speaker 2: that in your preparation. Where can I find the edge
Speaker 2: for my roster in my league. I'm not telling you
Speaker 2: these three things I gave you the mid round tight end,
Speaker 2: loading up at one position, group, multiple similar qbs. I'm
Speaker 2: not saying that's going to work in every room. These
Speaker 2: are examples, and you should think about, Hey, in my draft,
Speaker 2: this is how it's going to go. So here's where
Speaker 2: I can attack it, and here's where I can put
Speaker 2: it together a team that I wouldn't be able to
Speaker 2: do again. It's these these players. Otherwise, all right, that's
Speaker 2: number five. That's the fifth thing that nobody tells you
Speaker 2: about auctions. Let's wrap it up with my favorite one.
Speaker 2: I'd save the best of last. Here's number six. The
Speaker 2: sixth thing that nobody tells you about auctions is that
Speaker 2: successful auction drafters don't do anything fancy. Successful auction drafters
Speaker 2: do not make fancy moves. This is something that poker
Speaker 2: players when they start out, and auction drafters when they
Speaker 2: start out, that's what they think the name of the
Speaker 2: game is. They think they're Mel Gibson sitting at the
Speaker 2: poker table and they're going to pull a move on
Speaker 2: everybody on every hand.
Speaker 1: And people go.
Speaker 2: Into an auction draft room and they think, I'm just
Speaker 2: gonna roll in there and get three top twenty guys
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden they've spent one hundred and
Speaker 2: sixty bucks, or I'm gonna bid this guy out. He's
Speaker 2: wearing a bang jersey, and then they end up with
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow for eighteen bucks when they already have their
Speaker 2: quarterback for twelve. People roll into these things and think
Speaker 2: that if you make these sweet fancy moves all the time,
Speaker 2: you're gonna win, and you're gonna be the hero of
Speaker 2: this draft. You're gonna be the hero at the poker table.
Speaker 2: That is not how successful auction drafters do it. Successful
Speaker 2: auction drafters make the following moves. They don't force things.
Speaker 2: We do not force things. Tell yourself this before you
Speaker 2: go into the draft. I'm gonna get a little bit
Speaker 2: irritated right now. Because it can already see people doing it,
Speaker 2: and I've done it in the past. I'm not here,
Speaker 2: you know. I've said this before. I'm gonna say it again.
Speaker 2: I'm not here to beat you over the head with
Speaker 2: these things because you suck. I'm here to tell you
Speaker 2: that I suck at these things in the past, and
Speaker 2: I've noticed them about myself, and that's why we're talking
Speaker 2: about it here. So this is a collective we Okay,
Speaker 2: we can't force things. If you think a guy's gon
Speaker 2: to be a value and you call him out and
Speaker 2: he's not a value, stop bidden. Just because you want
Speaker 2: the guy doesn't mean that's what you should be doing.
Speaker 2: Don't tell yourself you have to have a certain player.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: I have a couple of leagues where they draft later
Speaker 2: in the off season, and I'll go through a bunch
Speaker 2: of drafts and I'll be like, man, I don't have
Speaker 2: this guy very many spots. I really kind of want
Speaker 2: to have this guy. And then I go into those
Speaker 2: drafts late in the season or late in the draft season,
Speaker 2: and I force it and I overpay for those players
Speaker 2: just because I want to have them. Okay, that's fine. Whatever,
Speaker 2: it's Fantasy football is supposed to be fun. But that's
Speaker 2: not a positive EV play. That's a negative EV play.
Speaker 2: Now you can swallow the EV if you want, but
Speaker 2: that's a negative EV play.
Speaker 1: So don't force it.
Speaker 2: Don't tell yourself, I gotta have this guy, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: do this. I have to do this, because that's when
Speaker 2: you make big mistakes. And what I talked about earlier
Speaker 2: is the bigger mistake you make, the bigger consequence there is.
Speaker 2: And if you end up buying your wide receiver one,
Speaker 2: then and you can't help it that somebody's about to
Speaker 2: get Pook and the Cooper for forty nine and you
Speaker 2: say fifty and you end up with them, Well, you've
Speaker 2: just made a big mistake, not because Pook is not
Speaker 2: worth it for fifty bucks, but because you hadn't planned
Speaker 2: to spend that. You are planned to spend twenty six.
Speaker 2: Now you spend double and you're in trouble. Now that
Speaker 2: consequences get bigger the bigger mistake you make. And so
Speaker 2: that's what happens when you force things. Okay, the number
Speaker 2: one thing that that successful auction drafters don't do to
Speaker 2: be fancy is they don't force things. Secondly, the not
Speaker 2: fancy move. The solid move is to nominate guys that
Speaker 2: you want early in the draft, Guys that you want
Speaker 2: to target. Nobody is going to tell you this. Okay,
Speaker 2: this is why I labeled today's topic. Nobody's going to
Speaker 2: tell you this about auctions. Nominate the guys that you want,
Speaker 2: that you're targeting, Nominate them early. Okay, you're not.
Speaker 1: Now. The exception is, I don't want you.
Speaker 2: To nominate like your favorite light late round sleeper, because
Speaker 2: if he's one or two or three dollars late in
Speaker 2: the draft, he might go for nine if you nominate
Speaker 2: him too early, if you go two deep down the
Speaker 2: tear sheet, then the player will be more expensive than
Speaker 2: they would be later.
Speaker 1: In the draft.
Speaker 2: I'm talking about your top level targets. What are your cornerstones.
Speaker 2: Let's say, hey, I'm getting a top three receiver, our
Speaker 2: top five receiver.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: Now, of course we're not gonna force it, but we're
Speaker 2: gonna try that tactic early. So when it gets to
Speaker 2: you and you say I want a top five receiver,
Speaker 2: nominate the guy that you want.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: Jamar Chase isn't staying on the board till the ninth round,
Speaker 2: and you can get him for forty bucks instead of
Speaker 2: sixty five. That ain't happen. People nominate the top guys.
Speaker 2: So nominate your guys early. Figure out who your targets are,
Speaker 2: nominate them early, and get them out there. That's the
Speaker 2: move that successful auction drafters make. You're not fancy about it,
Speaker 2: get your targets out there, get them out early.
Speaker 1: You know, boring.
Speaker 2: I know it's not fancy, it's not fun. You can't
Speaker 2: go on Twitter and brag about it. But boring wins,
Speaker 2: all right. Ramandre Stevenson's boring, but he wins for people.
Speaker 2: Jalen Warren, he's boring. He wins for people, all right.
Speaker 2: Wins make simple, repeatable effective plays over and over and over,
Speaker 2: simple repeatable effective plays, over and over and over. And
Speaker 2: I'm going to advocate for one of those plays right now.
Speaker 2: And I don't usually do this, but I'm going to
Speaker 2: advocate for market price enforcing. I've told you in general
Speaker 2: that I never want you just to bid somebody up
Speaker 2: wildly because you think you can bid them up. Now,
Speaker 2: if you think you're really good at auctions and you
Speaker 2: have a really good read on that person, go for it.
Speaker 2: That is part of the game, and it's something I
Speaker 2: want you to develop, but I don't think you need
Speaker 2: to force that. However, I do think it's incredibly important
Speaker 2: that you don't miss opportunities to market price and force. Now,
Speaker 2: you have to be careful. I'm not telling you not
Speaker 2: to be careful. You got to be careful. But you
Speaker 2: cannot let Garrett Wilson go for eighteen bucks just because
Speaker 2: everybody hates them. You gotta say nineteen now. Again, this
Speaker 2: is all like situation dependent. You can't say nineteen bucks
Speaker 2: if you're sitting on thirty one and you need to
Speaker 2: watch players like.
Speaker 1: I get it.
Speaker 2: But point is, don't miss the opportunities that are there
Speaker 2: that I would argue that's not an opportunity.
Speaker 1: You shouldn't be bidding there.
Speaker 2: The opportunities are the ones that you have to be
Speaker 2: looking out for. You cannot let deals go consistently over
Speaker 2: and over and over just because you're waiting on other guys.
Speaker 2: Waiting on players to get nominated is just the worst
Speaker 2: thing you can do. Early in the draft, get your
Speaker 2: guys out there, and then when other people nominate players
Speaker 2: that are going too cheap. You can't miss the market
Speaker 2: price enforcing.
Speaker 1: You just can't.
Speaker 2: And I understand that sometimes you're gonna get stuck with
Speaker 2: those guys, but that's the whole game. Being quote unquote
Speaker 2: stuck isn't necessarily a bad thing. If you get quote
Speaker 2: unquote stuck with the guy because you bid and he
Speaker 2: was far too cheap, you got a great deal there. Now,
Speaker 2: if you just don't want the player at all, then
Speaker 2: don't bid. You shouldn't be making the play, but you
Speaker 2: should be trying to market price and force every chance
Speaker 2: you get. And if you do that over and over
Speaker 2: and over and over throughout the draft, you can sometimes
Speaker 2: pull fifty seventy five one hundred bus out of that room.
Speaker 2: Can you imagine pulling half of a salary cap out
Speaker 2: of that room? Just because you're not going to let
Speaker 2: people get too good of a deal.
Speaker 1: You have to do this.
Speaker 2: It's so important. It's not fancy. It's just straight economics.
Speaker 2: It's straight how much did this guy go for? This
Speaker 2: is way too cheap. I have to bid. That ain't fancy.
Speaker 2: That's just knowing your stuff. That's knowing those values cold
Speaker 2: before you go into that draft. What do you consider
Speaker 2: this guy's value to be? And I'm not going to
Speaker 2: let somebody get too big of a deal. That's going
Speaker 2: to hurt me in the long run. Just remember, successful
Speaker 2: auction drafters don't make fancy moves. We make repeatable, simple,
Speaker 2: effective plays over and over and over, and the lack
Speaker 2: of mistakes has an effective weight on the rest of
Speaker 2: the room that's going to make your auction draft better
Speaker 2: than everybody in that room. All right, So the sixth
Speaker 2: thing nobody tells you about is that successful auction drafters
Speaker 2: don't do anything fancy. I love that way to end
Speaker 2: because we're trying to be as solid as possible and
Speaker 2: build that EV.
Speaker 1: Don't forget. It's not something I've talked about this summer,
Speaker 1: but stacking.
Speaker 2: Those plays each one gives you a part of a
Speaker 2: percent of EV. This move gave me point two percent.
Speaker 2: This move gave me one point one, This move gave
Speaker 2: me point seven. Pretty soon, you've increased the EV of
Speaker 2: your roster by eleven percent by making these simple, repeatable plays.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining me for this week.
Speaker 2: For the six things that nobody tells you about auctions,
Speaker 2: Just remember rigidity of purpose leads to flexibility in your
Speaker 2: draft room. Number two thing nobody tells you about auctions
Speaker 2: that there are tweeners that you can get on your
Speaker 2: roster that are going to make your roster explode. Number three,
Speaker 2: the speed of auctions can be surprising, and the more
Speaker 2: you prepare and the more you are buttoned up and
Speaker 2: ready to go, you can handle the relentless space. Number four.
Speaker 2: People are people going to do things against self interest.
Speaker 2: It's natural to see people making illogical plays. Be ready
Speaker 2: for it and expect it. Number five. Find your edge
Speaker 2: in doing things that you can do in an auction
Speaker 2: that you can't do in a snake. And finally, like
Speaker 2: I just got done talking about successful auction drafters, don't
Speaker 2: make fancy moves. They make simple, solid, repeatable, effective plays
Speaker 2: over and over and over, and the weight of that
Speaker 2: makes you a championship auction drafter. All right, folks, thank
Speaker 2: you so much for listening to my six things nobody
Speaker 2: tells you about auctions. Don't forget about the salary Cap summit.
Speaker 2: I hope I'm going to be seeing some of you
Speaker 2: out in Canton in just a couple of weeks. I
Speaker 2: hope you enjoyed the conversation with Joe Dolan from Fantasy Points.
Speaker 2: Dude is awesome. He knows his stuff and he knows auctions.
Speaker 2: So if you haven't listened to it yet, get over
Speaker 2: there and listen to that conversation with Joe Dolan. Don't
Speaker 2: forget Sunday, July twelfth, that's in a couple of days
Speaker 2: after you get this episode. I'll have my first serious
Speaker 2: x M show on the Fantasy Points Weekend from three
Speaker 2: to five on Sundays. We're going to be three to
Speaker 2: five on Sundays through July and August. When the season starts,
Speaker 2: we're going to be six to eight, all right, So
Speaker 2: get over there to serious and listen to us on Sunday,
Speaker 2: Drake and I starting our serious show with Fantasy Points Weekend,
Speaker 2: all right. You can find me on Twitter at drew
Speaker 2: to having port ff on the Fantasy Football Lawyer Patreon network.
Speaker 2: Just four bucks a month to get the best auction
Speaker 2: content in the business. Thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for being a part of this journey.
Speaker 2: I love talking to you all. It's my favorite time
Speaker 2: of the week. Thanks for being here, everybody. The Auction
Speaker 2: Brief is adjourned and I am out. The Auction Brief
Speaker 2: is adjourn that'll do it for this week's episode.
Speaker 1: See you next time on the Auction briefn