Speaker 1: Honored to have Stephen Nesbit of the athletic where they
Speaker 1: should can call him on Twitter at Stephen jay Nesbit
Speaker 1: to talk Major League Baseball. Four games on the postseason
Speaker 1: docket today and it starts with the Tigers at Houston. Steven,
Speaker 1: thanks for the time. How are you today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing well. Thanks for having me, Matt.
Speaker 1: You bet. The Tigers and Astros. I think people should
Speaker 1: be torn in this if they're even in Detroit because
Speaker 1: of how Walt Detroit has played down the stretch. Houston
Speaker 1: has played really well since the All Star break and
Speaker 1: they have that championship pedigree. How do you look at
Speaker 1: this series and what is most important and how it
Speaker 1: plays out?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there are a lot of factors I
Speaker 2: think are going to be really compelling in this one.
Speaker 2: You're right to point out the Astros were pretty horrific
Speaker 2: in the first half. They almost gave away the division
Speaker 2: that they never give away. Right. This is a team
Speaker 2: that's gone to the ALCS six straight years, seven straight years,
Speaker 2: and the Mariners had a ten game lead at one
Speaker 2: point in June, so it was it was rough going
Speaker 2: there for the Astros, but they figured it out. Now,
Speaker 2: what I would point out for Tigers fans, of which
Speaker 2: my entire family falls in, that is that these Astros
Speaker 2: aren't initially the Astros you're accustomed to. They are currently
Speaker 2: sort of fifty to fifty and whether you're not Alvarez,
Speaker 2: the big slugger, DH left fielder will play in the series,
Speaker 2: and Justin verland Or I doubt is going to be
Speaker 2: a factor. So you're dealing with Franver Valdez as their
Speaker 2: number one. He's certainly a bona fide ace. They have
Speaker 2: a Hunter Brown who's a kid who went to Way
Speaker 2: State I believe it was, and to try it, and
Speaker 2: you say Kakuchu. They got over from from Toronto. They
Speaker 2: have capable starting pitching, but I don't think it's overwhelming
Speaker 2: starting pitching, and they have a really good back end
Speaker 2: of the bullpen. So I think it's the series where
Speaker 2: you would, typically as a neutral party, say the Astros
Speaker 2: will get this done. We've seen them do it so
Speaker 2: many times with four. But the way the Tigers have played,
Speaker 2: it's very hard to deny the momentum they're carrying at
Speaker 2: this point. Whether this is vibes based or simply saying
Speaker 2: the fact is, as I wrote today, since the Wildcard
Speaker 2: series went to three games two years ago. All eight
Speaker 2: teams out of won game one have won the series,
Speaker 2: and in fact, only one of those series even went
Speaker 2: to three games. And so when you have Terri Schooble
Speaker 2: in game one, I have to go up against fran
Speaker 2: Ra Valdez, a pair of lefties. If Scooble can win
Speaker 2: them game one, I don't see why the Tigers can't
Speaker 2: finish off one of you know, the other two games
Speaker 2: going with sort of the chaos pitching approach.
Speaker 1: How important is playoff experience in your mind?
Speaker 2: It's important, I think, I think a lot of playoff experience.
Speaker 2: Certainly Trump's none. I don't know that you know, having
Speaker 2: played in one wild Card series before would would change
Speaker 2: things wildly for your fortunes. But when you're dealing with
Speaker 2: Alex Bregman, Framer, that is Verlander, whether he's in this
Speaker 2: or not, Josh Hader, Brian Abrew, Ryan Presley, Kyle Tucker,
Speaker 2: all these guys that have been to the playoff year
Speaker 2: after year after year, it's Houston that's gonna help. They're
Speaker 2: also playing at home. They're comfortable that park. The park
Speaker 2: plays rather interestingly right. It's a short porch to left
Speaker 2: field with the Crawford boxes they are. They also lead
Speaker 2: off with the pitcher in Valdez, who for years has
Speaker 2: been the highest ground ball percentage pitcher start pitcher in baseball.
Speaker 2: So he knows how to play in that park, and
Speaker 2: so the Tigers don't need timely swings and it might
Speaker 2: be a two to one, three one game that need
Speaker 2: to figure out how to win.
Speaker 1: Stephen Nesbit of the Athletic Joiner is here on Exus
Speaker 1: and Bros faham on Twitter on x Stephen J. Nesbit
Speaker 1: and its st E p h e N j Nesbit
Speaker 1: with two t's. The Tigers are probably too young to
Speaker 1: even I don't want to say understand, but it almost
Speaker 1: too young to even care where the at and just
Speaker 1: you know, just play with that looseness. Some people in
Speaker 1: Detroit feel like it's house money. I'm not one of them.
Speaker 1: Can youthful inexperience almost be a benefit in your mind?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it certainly. Can. We were just having
Speaker 2: this conversation yesterday. It was a ten year anniversary of
Speaker 2: the twenty fourteen Royals who had just this epic comeback
Speaker 2: victory in the Wildcard and they go all the way
Speaker 2: to the World Series then win it the following year.
Speaker 2: That's a team to me that had that didn't know
Speaker 2: any better, right, they had not been to the playoffs
Speaker 2: in forever, just like these Tigers having in a decade,
Speaker 2: and you get there and you know who's going to
Speaker 2: tell Terry Scoople how to feel today. He's going to
Speaker 2: go out and pitch as well as he can and
Speaker 2: as long as he can, and a J. Hinch He's
Speaker 2: to me like that is a bit of an X factor,
Speaker 2: having a steady hand at the wheel where he's able
Speaker 2: to have posted an experience with the guy on the
Speaker 2: other side. Joe's bought it. He has experienced in a
Speaker 2: different role, but not as a manager. That leads to
Speaker 2: me in the Tiger's direction, And maybe that's all you
Speaker 2: need as a manager who's been there before, who knows
Speaker 2: how to push the right button. It's been the right
Speaker 2: dials and let these players somehow play freely even though
Speaker 2: it's the biggest games of their to try Tigers lives.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree one hundred percent with that. Obviously, it
Speaker 1: doesn't always work out that way. It didn't help Aaron
Speaker 1: Boone a year ago, right, it didn't help certain guys
Speaker 1: who have that experience, you know, Dave Roberts, for example.
Speaker 1: It didn't necessarily help the Dodgers, but I think it's important,
Speaker 1: and I think A. J. Hinch is one of the
Speaker 1: best managers in all of baseball. I'm sure Steven volt
Speaker 1: will get the American League Manager of the Year, and
Speaker 1: I'm not crying about that, but I think A. J.
Speaker 1: Hinch has been a primary reason why Detroit has been
Speaker 1: able to make this type of push. How do you
Speaker 1: handicap the American League teams in general, because I think
Speaker 1: a lot of people feel like it's pretty wide open,
Speaker 1: considering the lack of health by some teams.
Speaker 2: Yeah it is. I'm not looking in the bracket now,
Speaker 2: but it's the Yankees got the buy was it Cleveland
Speaker 2: who got the other? By?
Speaker 1: Cleveland got the other by? Yep?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean both those teams stack up so well
Speaker 2: that the Yankees have. I mean, both teams have obvious flaws.
Speaker 2: The Guardians don't have a starting rotation. They have a
Speaker 2: couple of guys who have pitched well lately, Tanner Byby
Speaker 2: I trust. But beyond that, you know, you know, in
Speaker 2: Detroit we've seen Matthew Boyd and a lot of years ago,
Speaker 2: we were seeing great innings from him. Alice Cobb has
Speaker 2: been injured and coming back. The Yankees have big questions
Speaker 2: in the starting rotation because Garrett Cole hasn't been Garrett
Speaker 2: Cole right. He's coming off a side young season, but
Speaker 2: also coming more recently off of an elbow injury that
Speaker 2: kept him out for a couple of months. And their
Speaker 2: bullpen they've made it work lately, but they're also kind
Speaker 2: of operating without a true closer since Clay Holmes has
Speaker 2: moved out of that role, and they have some guys
Speaker 2: in this bullpend that you would three years ago have been,
Speaker 2: you know, in disbelief that they would wind up in
Speaker 2: a postseason of bullpen for the Yankees. Other than that,
Speaker 2: you know, we talked about Tigers in Houston. I'm looking
Speaker 2: around the field. What am I missing? Royals and.
Speaker 1: Baltimore Baltimore Oriols Baltimore, So those I have.
Speaker 2: I have the Orioles winning that one. But it's two
Speaker 2: teams that have played five hundred ball or slightly worse
Speaker 2: since July first, right there. Neither of them are coming
Speaker 2: in hot. The Royals don't have a bullpen, which is
Speaker 2: going to play pretty critically here because they do have
Speaker 2: a great rotation, right We've seen them have maybe the
Speaker 2: best rotation of anyone in baseball this season as far
Speaker 2: as one through five. And they're gonna go with Cole
Speaker 2: Reagan's in game one, that's logo in game two, and
Speaker 2: they have more options behind that. But you don't have
Speaker 2: a setup man, you don't have a you have an
Speaker 2: eighth inning man, and you're kind of leaving it all
Speaker 2: up to Luke Lucas Versage their their closer. They got
Speaker 2: from from the A's and I was just looking this up.
Speaker 2: They have. The Royals had the lowest team ops in
Speaker 2: September by kind of a bike by a mile, worse
Speaker 2: than the White Dogs, worse than all you know, everybody
Speaker 2: there at the bottom, and it was it was Bobby
Speaker 2: Witt with an eight hundred something OLPs, which is, you know,
Speaker 2: above league average, and no one in the seven hundreds
Speaker 2: that everyone else is six hundreds of lower, which is
Speaker 2: well below, well below average. That is a team that
Speaker 2: runs on you know, a couple of starting pitchers in
Speaker 2: Bobby Witt, and that scares me. When you're facing Corbyn Burns,
Speaker 2: who is good, Dac Efflyn, who I think is certainly
Speaker 2: capable of winning a postseason game as he has before.
Speaker 2: And a lineup that, to me in Baltimore one through
Speaker 2: nine is just significantly stronger, is going to find a
Speaker 2: way to chip away at what's happening in Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Baltimore has the best lineup in the
Speaker 1: American League, and outside of Philadelphia, might have the best
Speaker 1: lineup in baseball. That's just my opinion. I think they're
Speaker 1: really deep. I don't think Anthony Santander gets nearly enough credit. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think Baltimore is a scary team. But
Speaker 1: you know, from a pitching perspective, I think if they
Speaker 1: look back, they probably wish they would have gone and
Speaker 1: gotten some pitching help at the trade deadline. When you
Speaker 1: in your staff go into these types of you know,
Speaker 1: editors fortunate to make these predictions. I'm sure a lot
Speaker 1: of you guys don't like doing it. But when you're
Speaker 1: forced to do that, do you take into account pitching, hitting, coaching, fielding,
Speaker 1: what is most important to you? How do you prioritize
Speaker 1: how a team looks or is or ranks when you
Speaker 1: make these types of Synopsis of the series.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a it's a little a little bit of everything.
Speaker 2: I mean, I picked the Tigers in part because I
Speaker 2: thought maybe no one was going to pick them, and
Speaker 2: then you're always opening up yourselves up to get made
Speaker 2: fun of on social media. Plus I would make my
Speaker 2: dad happy if I picked the Tigers, And so it
Speaker 2: turned out a couple of couple of people to pick
Speaker 2: the Tigers. But you're it's all those things that I'm
Speaker 2: considering when I when I do it. But also, momentum
Speaker 2: is a real thing, right. I give the Mets a
Speaker 2: much greater chance to win right now than I would
Speaker 2: have you know, had to been coming in on a
Speaker 2: five hundred stretch and August and September and coasted down
Speaker 2: the stretch. There are teams that don't make sense that
Speaker 2: win in October. That's what we saw last year with
Speaker 2: the Texas Rangers. So we saw last year with the
Speaker 2: Arizona Diamondbacks, who very nearly made it back to the
Speaker 2: Dance this year. It would have been a dangerous out,
Speaker 2: I think had they made it back as the highest
Speaker 2: run scoring team in the Majors. So it is a
Speaker 2: little bit of everything. As I look at the Tigers,
Speaker 2: I'm telling you I'm making this decision based on Google
Speaker 2: because that I mentioned about how important is the win
Speaker 2: game one. When I'm looking at a team like the Yankees,
Speaker 2: I'm seeing kind of all the different ways that could
Speaker 2: beat you, particularly the Phillies. So I think are the
Speaker 2: most well rounded team in a field of teams that
Speaker 2: are imperfect. I picked them as the winner, but I
Speaker 2: could make an argument for the Yankees, or the Guardians,
Speaker 2: who have the best ball playing baseball, or the Dodgers.
Speaker 2: Let's let's count. The more ways you have to beat me,
Speaker 2: the more likely I am to pick you in that series.
Speaker 2: And so I think that's sort of the way I
Speaker 2: look at it.
Speaker 1: I like that your publication yesterday had a good one.
Speaker 1: It said I didn't realize this that Houston they have
Speaker 1: a pitching staff that is I mean really good, right,
Speaker 1: I mean it's been really good. But their lineup has
Speaker 1: been fantastic too. And Hunter Brown owns the league's third
Speaker 1: lowest ERA since May fifth. That is not a small
Speaker 1: sample size at all. That's phenomenal.
Speaker 2: No, I completely forgot to mention Hoseel today when I
Speaker 2: listed all those astros earlier. Yeah, this is a team
Speaker 2: with so much posted and experience. Hunter Brown's had experience
Speaker 2: but not necessarily one of these critical roles. And how
Speaker 2: nice to be in opposition. We're able to sort of
Speaker 2: usher this guy in and that can go around, I
Speaker 2: think in the postseason and is not walking in blind
Speaker 2: to the situation.
Speaker 1: Hey, just a couple more. I could keep you all day,
Speaker 1: but I know you've got stuff to do too. A
Speaker 1: couple more. I truly believe, and I said this just yesterday.
Speaker 1: Pat Murphy's been done an unbelievable job in Milwaukee. People
Speaker 1: just it's one of those teams and nobody gives enough
Speaker 1: credit to They had the most comfortable win of any
Speaker 1: division winner, whether or not you feel like the division
Speaker 1: is worth anything, but Pet Murphy's been incredible. How do
Speaker 1: you handicap the National League?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think it's a good point about Murph.
Speaker 2: And Cody Stapenhagen, who covers the Tigers for US, just
Speaker 2: had a future come out on Murphy. That's a really
Speaker 2: good one. Look when you trade away your eighth or
Speaker 2: last offseason for two guys who I think will be contributors.
Speaker 2: Joey Orchiez has helped them this year in deal Hall.
Speaker 2: They anticipate will down the road, but really not not
Speaker 2: two guys who I think are making or breaking the season.
Speaker 2: That's your eighth there. You just gave away for one year,
Speaker 2: and then you lose your manager, which is a large
Speaker 2: record contract with the Cubs, and you're able to backfill
Speaker 2: with Murphy, who is an extremely beloved figure in coaching
Speaker 2: circles and was a long time before he got this job,
Speaker 2: and you basically end up with the same results despite
Speaker 2: the fact you lose Christian Yellis, who's having a great season.
Speaker 2: You don't have Devin Williams, your incredible closer for half
Speaker 2: the year, and your rotation has made up of Freddie Peralta,
Speaker 2: who has been a known friend and trusted agent of
Speaker 2: the Brewers' rotation for a bit. But you don't have
Speaker 2: your two or three from last year, or two of
Speaker 2: your top three pitchers, and you're making it work with
Speaker 2: Tobias Myers, who is a rookie, and a couple of
Speaker 2: veterans they brought in this year, like a handful of
Speaker 2: different veterans who are we're not doing particularly well elsewhere.
Speaker 2: The Brewers just have a way of figuring that out
Speaker 2: and have a bullpen that rivaled I think only the
Speaker 2: only the Indians and the Guardians apologize in terms of
Speaker 2: depths of that bullpen and the impact they can have
Speaker 2: on a series like this. So I have Milwaukee winning
Speaker 2: their series. There, help me up with the matchups. I'm
Speaker 2: going a blank on them.
Speaker 1: Well, you've got the Mets going up, you got the
Speaker 1: Braves going up against the pod Rays, the Mets going
Speaker 1: up against the Brewers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have I have Brewers over Mets. But
Speaker 2: that's the one I could see more likely to flip
Speaker 2: the Mets taking now one. They're playing such good baseball lately,
Speaker 2: and they don't have a great road pitching staff. You know,
Speaker 2: I ranked them as the worst, the second worst among
Speaker 2: the playoffs field, the worst National League a couple of
Speaker 2: weeks ago. But the truth is, if Sean Man and
Speaker 2: I and and Louis Everarino can pitch the way they have,
Speaker 2: uh and they you know, you only need a couple
Speaker 2: of bullpen arms to finish the game. And they have
Speaker 2: Edwin Diaz who has been one of the best closers
Speaker 2: in baseball. But I do have I do have the
Speaker 2: Brewers in that one. As far as the Braves Podrays,
Speaker 2: I think I think the Braves are just I have
Speaker 2: won too many losses, right now in terms of what's
Speaker 2: available on the roster, They've been without basically everybody at
Speaker 2: some point in the season, but they're currently without Austin Riley,
Speaker 2: they're all star third baseman, and uh, you know the
Speaker 2: the m V p Ronald Lecunr, who's they're both going
Speaker 2: to be out for the playoffs. And now Chris Sale
Speaker 2: was supposed to start the elimination game on Monday, and
Speaker 2: instead they had to turn to a bulk bullpen arm
Speaker 2: Grant Holmes because Sale is dealing with some sort of
Speaker 2: injury which we could sort of see coming right. His
Speaker 2: velocity has been down lately, his stuff's been take worse,
Speaker 2: and now his available availabilities in question, and I just
Speaker 2: think too many questions going on. Let the Braves have.
Speaker 2: Plus put on top of that, they're exhausted. They just
Speaker 2: had to play eighteen and on Monday that were all
Speaker 2: critically important that they pitched. They had You had to
Speaker 2: pitch in the first game as if you were about
Speaker 2: to win that game, and take it easy in the second,
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, you know, a couple of
Speaker 2: incredible mets comes back come back there made it so
Speaker 2: that both games were more vital to get into the postseason.
Speaker 2: So the Padres are so deep in that pitching staff,
Speaker 2: and they have the sort of stars in the lineup
Speaker 2: that I think can carry them. But I think the
Speaker 2: Padres are going to probably make pretty quick work here
Speaker 2: as long as they can get to Max Freed. I
Speaker 2: think probably winning two games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't disagree with that, and that would set
Speaker 1: up another shot at the Dodgers. Quick thought before I
Speaker 1: let you go, and I only got a minute. Pete Rose,
Speaker 1: the loss of Pete Rose. I just love the way
Speaker 1: he played the game. I understand what his legacy reads,
Speaker 1: not just all time hits leader, but also banned for
Speaker 1: life from baseball, but as a player, as a seventeen
Speaker 1: time All Star in twenty four year Vet, what's your
Speaker 1: lasting impression of your knowledge about Pete Rose.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I wasn't born during his career, and I
Speaker 2: haven't been in the business since he was really like
Speaker 2: in the headlines for anything relevant. But you know, I
Speaker 2: was doing a story last night, just a roundup of
Speaker 2: people's reactions to his death, and it's incredible the list
Speaker 2: of accomplishments and not all I mean, imagine the world
Speaker 2: in which a player coach is still a player manager
Speaker 2: is still a thing. Three thousand hits. I just talked
Speaker 2: to Wade Boggs the other day. Three thousand hits and
Speaker 2: is an incredible thing. You can you know you're a
Speaker 2: Hall of Famer because of it. Four thousand hits. There's
Speaker 2: nothing like it to play for twenty four years, you know,
Speaker 2: looking like an average guy. He didn't look like a
Speaker 2: spectacular athlete, but he just knew how to put back
Speaker 2: to ball and get on base and hustle like nobody else.
Speaker 2: It's the video clips are pretty incredible to watch, even
Speaker 2: though I didn't get to watch it live.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know if there's ever been a more
Speaker 1: appropriate nickname for any athlete in any sport than Charlie
Speaker 1: Hustle for Pete Rose stephen Nesbit. We know how much
Speaker 1: you hustle. We appreciate all your work, appreciate the knowledge
Speaker 1: here this morning. Continued success at the athletic and thanks
Speaker 1: for your time today. Enjoy the playoffs
Speaker 2: Thanks to Peter