WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Honored to have Stephen Nesbit of the athletic where they

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<v Speaker 1>should can call him on Twitter at Stephen jay Nesbit

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<v Speaker 1>to talk Major League Baseball. Four games on the postseason

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<v Speaker 1>docket today and it starts with the Tigers at Houston. Steven,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for the time. How are you today?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm doing well. Thanks for having me, Matt.

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<v Speaker 1>You bet. The Tigers and Astros. I think people should

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<v Speaker 1>be torn in this if they're even in Detroit because

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<v Speaker 1>of how Walt Detroit has played down the stretch. Houston

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<v Speaker 1>has played really well since the All Star break and

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<v Speaker 1>they have that championship pedigree. How do you look at

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<v Speaker 1>this series and what is most important and how it

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<v Speaker 1>plays out?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean there are a lot of factors I

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<v Speaker 2>think are going to be really compelling in this one.

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<v Speaker 2>You're right to point out the Astros were pretty horrific

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<v Speaker 2>in the first half. They almost gave away the division

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<v Speaker 2>that they never give away. Right. This is a team

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<v Speaker 2>that's gone to the ALCS six straight years, seven straight years,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Mariners had a ten game lead at one

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<v Speaker 2>point in June, so it was it was rough going

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<v Speaker 2>there for the Astros, but they figured it out. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>what I would point out for Tigers fans, of which

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<v Speaker 2>my entire family falls in, that is that these Astros

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<v Speaker 2>aren't initially the Astros you're accustomed to. They are currently

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<v Speaker 2>sort of fifty to fifty and whether you're not Alvarez,

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<v Speaker 2>the big slugger, DH left fielder will play in the series,

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<v Speaker 2>and Justin verland Or I doubt is going to be

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<v Speaker 2>a factor. So you're dealing with Franver Valdez as their

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<v Speaker 2>number one. He's certainly a bona fide ace. They have

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<v Speaker 2>a Hunter Brown who's a kid who went to Way

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<v Speaker 2>State I believe it was, and to try it, and

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<v Speaker 2>you say Kakuchu. They got over from from Toronto. They

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<v Speaker 2>have capable starting pitching, but I don't think it's overwhelming

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<v Speaker 2>starting pitching, and they have a really good back end

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<v Speaker 2>of the bullpen. So I think it's the series where

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<v Speaker 2>you would, typically as a neutral party, say the Astros

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<v Speaker 2>will get this done. We've seen them do it so

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<v Speaker 2>many times with four. But the way the Tigers have played,

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<v Speaker 2>it's very hard to deny the momentum they're carrying at

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<v Speaker 2>this point. Whether this is vibes based or simply saying

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<v Speaker 2>the fact is, as I wrote today, since the Wildcard

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<v Speaker 2>series went to three games two years ago. All eight

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<v Speaker 2>teams out of won game one have won the series,

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<v Speaker 2>and in fact, only one of those series even went

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<v Speaker 2>to three games. And so when you have Terri Schooble

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<v Speaker 2>in game one, I have to go up against fran

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<v Speaker 2>Ra Valdez, a pair of lefties. If Scooble can win

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<v Speaker 2>them game one, I don't see why the Tigers can't

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<v Speaker 2>finish off one of you know, the other two games

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<v Speaker 2>going with sort of the chaos pitching approach.

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<v Speaker 1>How important is playoff experience in your mind?

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<v Speaker 2>It's important, I think, I think a lot of playoff experience.

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<v Speaker 2>Certainly Trump's none. I don't know that you know, having

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<v Speaker 2>played in one wild Card series before would would change

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<v Speaker 2>things wildly for your fortunes. But when you're dealing with

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<v Speaker 2>Alex Bregman, Framer, that is Verlander, whether he's in this

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<v Speaker 2>or not, Josh Hader, Brian Abrew, Ryan Presley, Kyle Tucker,

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<v Speaker 2>all these guys that have been to the playoff year

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<v Speaker 2>after year after year, it's Houston that's gonna help. They're

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<v Speaker 2>also playing at home. They're comfortable that park. The park

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<v Speaker 2>plays rather interestingly right. It's a short porch to left

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<v Speaker 2>field with the Crawford boxes they are. They also lead

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<v Speaker 2>off with the pitcher in Valdez, who for years has

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<v Speaker 2>been the highest ground ball percentage pitcher start pitcher in baseball.

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<v Speaker 2>So he knows how to play in that park, and

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<v Speaker 2>so the Tigers don't need timely swings and it might

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<v Speaker 2>be a two to one, three one game that need

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<v Speaker 2>to figure out how to win.

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<v Speaker 1>Stephen Nesbit of the Athletic Joiner is here on Exus

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<v Speaker 1>and Bros faham on Twitter on x Stephen J. Nesbit

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<v Speaker 1>and its st E p h e N j Nesbit

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<v Speaker 1>with two t's. The Tigers are probably too young to

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<v Speaker 1>even I don't want to say understand, but it almost

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<v Speaker 1>too young to even care where the at and just

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<v Speaker 1>you know, just play with that looseness. Some people in

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<v Speaker 1>Detroit feel like it's house money. I'm not one of them.

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<v Speaker 1>Can youthful inexperience almost be a benefit in your mind?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? I think it certainly. Can. We were just having

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<v Speaker 2>this conversation yesterday. It was a ten year anniversary of

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty fourteen Royals who had just this epic comeback

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<v Speaker 2>victory in the Wildcard and they go all the way

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<v Speaker 2>to the World Series then win it the following year.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a team to me that had that didn't know

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<v Speaker 2>any better, right, they had not been to the playoffs

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<v Speaker 2>in forever, just like these Tigers having in a decade,

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<v Speaker 2>and you get there and you know who's going to

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<v Speaker 2>tell Terry Scoople how to feel today. He's going to

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<v Speaker 2>go out and pitch as well as he can and

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<v Speaker 2>as long as he can, and a J. Hinch He's

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<v Speaker 2>to me like that is a bit of an X factor,

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<v Speaker 2>having a steady hand at the wheel where he's able

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<v Speaker 2>to have posted an experience with the guy on the

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<v Speaker 2>other side. Joe's bought it. He has experienced in a

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<v Speaker 2>different role, but not as a manager. That leads to

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<v Speaker 2>me in the Tiger's direction, And maybe that's all you

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<v Speaker 2>need as a manager who's been there before, who knows

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<v Speaker 2>how to push the right button. It's been the right

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<v Speaker 2>dials and let these players somehow play freely even though

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<v Speaker 2>it's the biggest games of their to try Tigers lives.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I agree one hundred percent with that. Obviously, it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't always work out that way. It didn't help Aaron

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<v Speaker 1>Boone a year ago, right, it didn't help certain guys

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<v Speaker 1>who have that experience, you know, Dave Roberts, for example.

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<v Speaker 1>It didn't necessarily help the Dodgers, but I think it's important,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think A. J. Hinch is one of the

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<v Speaker 1>best managers in all of baseball. I'm sure Steven volt

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<v Speaker 1>will get the American League Manager of the Year, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not crying about that, but I think A. J.

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<v Speaker 1>Hinch has been a primary reason why Detroit has been

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<v Speaker 1>able to make this type of push. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>handicap the American League teams in general, because I think

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people feel like it's pretty wide open,

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<v Speaker 1>considering the lack of health by some teams.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah it is. I'm not looking in the bracket now,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's the Yankees got the buy was it Cleveland

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<v Speaker 2>who got the other? By?

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<v Speaker 1>Cleveland got the other by? Yep?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean both those teams stack up so well

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<v Speaker 2>that the Yankees have. I mean, both teams have obvious flaws.

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<v Speaker 2>The Guardians don't have a starting rotation. They have a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of guys who have pitched well lately, Tanner Byby

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<v Speaker 2>I trust. But beyond that, you know, you know, in

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<v Speaker 2>Detroit we've seen Matthew Boyd and a lot of years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>we were seeing great innings from him. Alice Cobb has

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<v Speaker 2>been injured and coming back. The Yankees have big questions

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<v Speaker 2>in the starting rotation because Garrett Cole hasn't been Garrett

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<v Speaker 2>Cole right. He's coming off a side young season, but

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<v Speaker 2>also coming more recently off of an elbow injury that

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<v Speaker 2>kept him out for a couple of months. And their

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<v Speaker 2>bullpen they've made it work lately, but they're also kind

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<v Speaker 2>of operating without a true closer since Clay Holmes has

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<v Speaker 2>moved out of that role, and they have some guys

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<v Speaker 2>in this bullpend that you would three years ago have been,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, in disbelief that they would wind up in

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<v Speaker 2>a postseason of bullpen for the Yankees. Other than that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we talked about Tigers in Houston. I'm looking

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<v Speaker 2>around the field. What am I missing? Royals and.

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<v Speaker 1>Baltimore Baltimore Oriols Baltimore, So those I have.

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<v Speaker 2>I have the Orioles winning that one. But it's two

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<v Speaker 2>teams that have played five hundred ball or slightly worse

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<v Speaker 2>since July first, right there. Neither of them are coming

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<v Speaker 2>in hot. The Royals don't have a bullpen, which is

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<v Speaker 2>going to play pretty critically here because they do have

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<v Speaker 2>a great rotation, right We've seen them have maybe the

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<v Speaker 2>best rotation of anyone in baseball this season as far

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<v Speaker 2>as one through five. And they're gonna go with Cole

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<v Speaker 2>Reagan's in game one, that's logo in game two, and

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<v Speaker 2>they have more options behind that. But you don't have

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<v Speaker 2>a setup man, you don't have a you have an

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<v Speaker 2>eighth inning man, and you're kind of leaving it all

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<v Speaker 2>up to Luke Lucas Versage their their closer. They got

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<v Speaker 2>from from the A's and I was just looking this up.

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<v Speaker 2>They have. The Royals had the lowest team ops in

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<v Speaker 2>September by kind of a bike by a mile, worse

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<v Speaker 2>than the White Dogs, worse than all you know, everybody

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<v Speaker 2>there at the bottom, and it was it was Bobby

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<v Speaker 2>Witt with an eight hundred something OLPs, which is, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>above league average, and no one in the seven hundreds

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<v Speaker 2>that everyone else is six hundreds of lower, which is

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<v Speaker 2>well below, well below average. That is a team that

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<v Speaker 2>runs on you know, a couple of starting pitchers in

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<v Speaker 2>Bobby Witt, and that scares me. When you're facing Corbyn Burns,

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<v Speaker 2>who is good, Dac Efflyn, who I think is certainly

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<v Speaker 2>capable of winning a postseason game as he has before.

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<v Speaker 2>And a lineup that, to me in Baltimore one through

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<v Speaker 2>nine is just significantly stronger, is going to find a

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<v Speaker 2>way to chip away at what's happening in Kansas City.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. I think Baltimore has the best lineup in the

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<v Speaker 1>American League, and outside of Philadelphia, might have the best

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<v Speaker 1>lineup in baseball. That's just my opinion. I think they're

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<v Speaker 1>really deep. I don't think Anthony Santander gets nearly enough credit. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think I think Baltimore is a scary team. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, from a pitching perspective, I think if they

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<v Speaker 1>look back, they probably wish they would have gone and

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<v Speaker 1>gotten some pitching help at the trade deadline. When you

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<v Speaker 1>in your staff go into these types of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>editors fortunate to make these predictions. I'm sure a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of you guys don't like doing it. But when you're

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<v Speaker 1>forced to do that, do you take into account pitching, hitting, coaching, fielding,

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<v Speaker 1>what is most important to you? How do you prioritize

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<v Speaker 1>how a team looks or is or ranks when you

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<v Speaker 1>make these types of Synopsis of the series.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's a it's a little a little bit of everything.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I picked the Tigers in part because I

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<v Speaker 2>thought maybe no one was going to pick them, and

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<v Speaker 2>then you're always opening up yourselves up to get made

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<v Speaker 2>fun of on social media. Plus I would make my

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<v Speaker 2>dad happy if I picked the Tigers, And so it

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<v Speaker 2>turned out a couple of couple of people to pick

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<v Speaker 2>the Tigers. But you're it's all those things that I'm

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<v Speaker 2>considering when I when I do it. But also, momentum

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<v Speaker 2>is a real thing, right. I give the Mets a

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<v Speaker 2>much greater chance to win right now than I would

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<v Speaker 2>have you know, had to been coming in on a

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<v Speaker 2>five hundred stretch and August and September and coasted down

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<v Speaker 2>the stretch. There are teams that don't make sense that

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<v Speaker 2>win in October. That's what we saw last year with

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<v Speaker 2>the Texas Rangers. So we saw last year with the

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<v Speaker 2>Arizona Diamondbacks, who very nearly made it back to the

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<v Speaker 2>Dance this year. It would have been a dangerous out,

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<v Speaker 2>I think had they made it back as the highest

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<v Speaker 2>run scoring team in the Majors. So it is a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit of everything. As I look at the Tigers,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm telling you I'm making this decision based on Google

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<v Speaker 2>because that I mentioned about how important is the win

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<v Speaker 2>game one. When I'm looking at a team like the Yankees,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm seeing kind of all the different ways that could

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<v Speaker 2>beat you, particularly the Phillies. So I think are the

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<v Speaker 2>most well rounded team in a field of teams that

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<v Speaker 2>are imperfect. I picked them as the winner, but I

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<v Speaker 2>could make an argument for the Yankees, or the Guardians,

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<v Speaker 2>who have the best ball playing baseball, or the Dodgers.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's let's count. The more ways you have to beat me,

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<v Speaker 2>the more likely I am to pick you in that series.

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<v Speaker 2>And so I think that's sort of the way I

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<v Speaker 2>look at it.

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<v Speaker 1>I like that your publication yesterday had a good one.

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<v Speaker 1>It said I didn't realize this that Houston they have

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<v Speaker 1>a pitching staff that is I mean really good, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's been really good. But their lineup has

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<v Speaker 1>been fantastic too. And Hunter Brown owns the league's third

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<v Speaker 1>lowest ERA since May fifth. That is not a small

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<v Speaker 1>sample size at all. That's phenomenal.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I completely forgot to mention Hoseel today when I

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<v Speaker 2>listed all those astros earlier. Yeah, this is a team

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<v Speaker 2>with so much posted and experience. Hunter Brown's had experience

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<v Speaker 2>but not necessarily one of these critical roles. And how

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<v Speaker 2>nice to be in opposition. We're able to sort of

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<v Speaker 2>usher this guy in and that can go around, I

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<v Speaker 2>think in the postseason and is not walking in blind

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<v Speaker 2>to the situation.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, just a couple more. I could keep you all day,

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<v Speaker 1>but I know you've got stuff to do too. A

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<v Speaker 1>couple more. I truly believe, and I said this just yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>Pat Murphy's been done an unbelievable job in Milwaukee. People

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<v Speaker 1>just it's one of those teams and nobody gives enough

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<v Speaker 1>credit to They had the most comfortable win of any

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<v Speaker 1>division winner, whether or not you feel like the division

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<v Speaker 1>is worth anything, but Pet Murphy's been incredible. How do

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<v Speaker 1>you handicap the National League?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean I think it's a good point about Murph.

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<v Speaker 2>And Cody Stapenhagen, who covers the Tigers for US, just

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<v Speaker 2>had a future come out on Murphy. That's a really

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<v Speaker 2>good one. Look when you trade away your eighth or

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<v Speaker 2>last offseason for two guys who I think will be contributors.

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<v Speaker 2>Joey Orchiez has helped them this year in deal Hall.

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<v Speaker 2>They anticipate will down the road, but really not not

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<v Speaker 2>two guys who I think are making or breaking the season.

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<v Speaker 2>That's your eighth there. You just gave away for one year,

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<v Speaker 2>and then you lose your manager, which is a large

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<v Speaker 2>record contract with the Cubs, and you're able to backfill

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<v Speaker 2>with Murphy, who is an extremely beloved figure in coaching

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<v Speaker 2>circles and was a long time before he got this job,

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<v Speaker 2>and you basically end up with the same results despite

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<v Speaker 2>the fact you lose Christian Yellis, who's having a great season.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't have Devin Williams, your incredible closer for half

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<v Speaker 2>the year, and your rotation has made up of Freddie Peralta,

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<v Speaker 2>who has been a known friend and trusted agent of

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<v Speaker 2>the Brewers' rotation for a bit. But you don't have

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<v Speaker 2>your two or three from last year, or two of

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<v Speaker 2>your top three pitchers, and you're making it work with

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<v Speaker 2>Tobias Myers, who is a rookie, and a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>veterans they brought in this year, like a handful of

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<v Speaker 2>different veterans who are we're not doing particularly well elsewhere.

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<v Speaker 2>The Brewers just have a way of figuring that out

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<v Speaker 2>and have a bullpen that rivaled I think only the

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<v Speaker 2>only the Indians and the Guardians apologize in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>depths of that bullpen and the impact they can have

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<v Speaker 2>on a series like this. So I have Milwaukee winning

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<v Speaker 2>their series. There, help me up with the matchups. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>going a blank on them.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you've got the Mets going up, you got the

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<v Speaker 1>Braves going up against the pod Rays, the Mets going

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<v Speaker 1>up against the Brewers.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I have I have Brewers over Mets. But

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<v Speaker 2>that's the one I could see more likely to flip

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<v Speaker 2>the Mets taking now one. They're playing such good baseball lately,

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<v Speaker 2>and they don't have a great road pitching staff. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I ranked them as the worst, the second worst among

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<v Speaker 2>the playoffs field, the worst National League a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>weeks ago. But the truth is, if Sean Man and

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<v Speaker 2>I and and Louis Everarino can pitch the way they have,

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<v Speaker 2>uh and they you know, you only need a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of bullpen arms to finish the game. And they have

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<v Speaker 2>Edwin Diaz who has been one of the best closers

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<v Speaker 2>in baseball. But I do have I do have the

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<v Speaker 2>Brewers in that one. As far as the Braves Podrays,

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<v Speaker 2>I think I think the Braves are just I have

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<v Speaker 2>won too many losses, right now in terms of what's

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<v Speaker 2>available on the roster, They've been without basically everybody at

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<v Speaker 2>some point in the season, but they're currently without Austin Riley,

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<v Speaker 2>they're all star third baseman, and uh, you know the

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<v Speaker 2>the m V p Ronald Lecunr, who's they're both going

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<v Speaker 2>to be out for the playoffs. And now Chris Sale

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<v Speaker 2>was supposed to start the elimination game on Monday, and

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<v Speaker 2>instead they had to turn to a bulk bullpen arm

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<v Speaker 2>Grant Holmes because Sale is dealing with some sort of

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<v Speaker 2>injury which we could sort of see coming right. His

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<v Speaker 2>velocity has been down lately, his stuff's been take worse,

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<v Speaker 2>and now his available availabilities in question, and I just

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<v Speaker 2>think too many questions going on. Let the Braves have.

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<v Speaker 2>Plus put on top of that, they're exhausted. They just

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<v Speaker 2>had to play eighteen and on Monday that were all

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<v Speaker 2>critically important that they pitched. They had You had to

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<v Speaker 2>pitch in the first game as if you were about

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<v Speaker 2>to win that game, and take it easy in the second,

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<v Speaker 2>and all of a sudden, you know, a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>incredible mets comes back come back there made it so

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<v Speaker 2>that both games were more vital to get into the postseason.

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<v Speaker 2>So the Padres are so deep in that pitching staff,

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<v Speaker 2>and they have the sort of stars in the lineup

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<v Speaker 2>that I think can carry them. But I think the

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<v Speaker 2>Padres are going to probably make pretty quick work here

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<v Speaker 2>as long as they can get to Max Freed. I

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<v Speaker 2>think probably winning two games.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I don't disagree with that, and that would set

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<v Speaker 1>up another shot at the Dodgers. Quick thought before I

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<v Speaker 1>let you go, and I only got a minute. Pete Rose,

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<v Speaker 1>the loss of Pete Rose. I just love the way

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<v Speaker 1>he played the game. I understand what his legacy reads,

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<v Speaker 1>not just all time hits leader, but also banned for

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<v Speaker 1>life from baseball, but as a player, as a seventeen

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<v Speaker 1>time All Star in twenty four year Vet, what's your

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<v Speaker 1>lasting impression of your knowledge about Pete Rose.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, I wasn't born during his career, and I

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<v Speaker 2>haven't been in the business since he was really like

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<v Speaker 2>in the headlines for anything relevant. But you know, I

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<v Speaker 2>was doing a story last night, just a roundup of

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<v Speaker 2>people's reactions to his death, and it's incredible the list

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<v Speaker 2>of accomplishments and not all I mean, imagine the world

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<v Speaker 2>in which a player coach is still a player manager

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<v Speaker 2>is still a thing. Three thousand hits. I just talked

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<v Speaker 2>to Wade Boggs the other day. Three thousand hits and

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<v Speaker 2>is an incredible thing. You can you know you're a

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<v Speaker 2>Hall of Famer because of it. Four thousand hits. There's

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<v Speaker 2>nothing like it to play for twenty four years, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>looking like an average guy. He didn't look like a

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<v Speaker 2>spectacular athlete, but he just knew how to put back

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<v Speaker 2>to ball and get on base and hustle like nobody else.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the video clips are pretty incredible to watch, even

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<v Speaker 2>though I didn't get to watch it live.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. I don't know if there's ever been a more

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<v Speaker 1>appropriate nickname for any athlete in any sport than Charlie

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<v Speaker 1>Hustle for Pete Rose stephen Nesbit. We know how much

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<v Speaker 1>you hustle. We appreciate all your work, appreciate the knowledge

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<v Speaker 1>here this morning. Continued success at the athletic and thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for your time today. Enjoy the playoffs

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks to Peter
